[ExI] A small step towards brain emulation

[Giulio Prisco]

I look forward to reading your paper Anders.

I don't think our capacity to run an upload copy is the main problem.
I would be perfectly happy to wait for a couple of hundred years after
the scan, for technology to catch up. The main problem is acquiring
and storing all the relevant information, which of course assumes that
we know what the relevant information is.

A chemically preserved brain (brainpreservation.org of John Smart and
Ken Hayworth) can be seen as an analog solid state upload database,
which is almost good enough, but we can read it only once without a
backup copy.

On Wed, Nov 21, 2012 at 11:31 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> On 21/11/2012 07:17, Giulio Prisco wrote:
>>
>> Anders "the probabilities get serious for decent uploads around 2050,
>> and merely working ones in 2037"
>>
>> This sounds like sweet music to me, especially because there is a
>> little possibility that I am still alive in 2050, and a more solid
>> possibility that I am still alive in 2037.
>>
>> But my gut feeling is that it will take longer, perhaps much longer.
>> Perhaps the first experimental uploads around the end of the century.
>> I hope I am wrong, and I would love to hear solid arguments in support
>> of Anders' timeline.
>
>
> I really should publish my full analysis as a tech report, especially since
> Stuart Armstrong praised it at the Singularity Summit. It should of course
> be taken with a mountain of salt. Basically it is a Monte Carlo model of
> different scenarios of Moore's law, the complexity of the brain, progress in
> neuroscience and scanning tech.
>
> It is worth remembering that I get a probability distribution with my full
> model, not a single date: the previous post on this list was a back of the
> envelope sketch based on single numbers. The full distribution looks a bit
> like a lognormal distribution starting to build height in the 2030s and
> having a peak mid-century, with a very very long tail stretching into the
> future.
>
> I'll promise I will work on a report when I get some time after the big AGI
> conference in December.
>
> But, yeah, we should get cryonics contracts and work on other ways of life
> extension. Uploading is not going to be easy.
>
>
> --
> Anders Sandberg,
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
>
>
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