From pizerdavid at yahoo.com Mon Oct 1 01:24:54 2012 From: pizerdavid at yahoo.com (david pizer) Date: Sun, 30 Sep 2012 18:24:54 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] Monthly Meeting notice Message-ID: <1349054694.10507.YahooMailNeo@web121705.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> The next monthly meeting of the Society for Venturism will be held (as always on the first Sunday of each month) at The Venturist Headquarters located at the Creekside Lodge in Mayer Arizona at 2pm. All cryonicists and immortalists are welcome. Come a little early if you like. There will be an exciting discussion with a brief introduction by David Pizer and Mike Perry. Then everyone is welcome to join in. The subject of this months discussion will be on if we have a soul and is the soul a physical thing we call the brain. If that is what a soul is - can we have physical immortality. Please read the brief remarks below to get in the spirit of the discussion. If you can't attend in person, send your brief remarks and we will read them at the meeting. Contact Mark Plus to find out how to get connected by Skypes and to find out if I spelled it right. :=) I BELIEVE WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO AVOID DEATH. THIS IS A VERY EXCITING CONCEPT. PLEASE READ THE BRIEF OVERVIEW BELOW AND BRING YOUR COMMENTS. ? David ?============================================= Mind = Brain = Soul.............and Physical Immortality.By:David Pizer WHAT IS A SOUL? Yes, humans have a soul, it is their physical brain.We now know that the thing people used to call their soul is the feeling of consciousness, awareness and thoughts within theirbrain.We no longer need the Dualism concept of a non-material soul to explain consciousness and thinking. HOW DID THE CONCEPT OF SOUL COME TO BE? In the past, humans often referred to their conscious mind as their "soul."They did not understand how a physical thing (their brain) could create the feeling of consciousness, and they felt that consciousness was a non-physical thing.Therefore they assumed that consciousness was something that existed apart from their physical brain and/or body.Basically they called their conscious mind "their soul" and they chose to believe that it was somethingapart from the physical matter of their body or even of this universe. Sometimes they thought this non-material thing they called "soul" was immortal. ? I believe that the specific conscious mind of an individual is entirely the workings of their specific brain.? There is little mystery that the configuration of the neurons in the brain and the arrangement of their synaptic connections cause the brain to "feel" consciousness and create and sense thoughts within the workings of the brain. But this new materialist explanation of our conscious mind does not mean that we cannot have a potentially ?immortal mind starting with the same type of mind that in the past was also called the soul.? We can still refer to our mind as the soul of our personhood and that soul might become ?physically immortal if we take action. WHAT IS A SOUL AND WHAT IS NOT A SOUL.? CAN A PHYSICAL SOUL BECOME IMMORTAL??? We start our explanation of preparing for physical immortality of our soul (also known as our mind/brain) by more precisely explaining what our mind/brain really is and what it is not.? (From here and through the rest of this work, I will use the words "mind," "brain" and "soul" interchangeably as 3 different words for the same thing.) Most people think? the essential part of their brain is the specific matter that the brain? consists of.?? What makes each brain unique is not the specific matter it is made of but the individual arrangement of? matter that is unique to each different person's brain.? ?The atoms of each brain are arranged to make molecules which are arranged to make neurons (brain cells) and their specific synaptic connections.? Thinking, sensing and other mental exercises cause the brain to prepare materials in certain arrangements.? Certain arrangements cause the brain to sense and think in certain ways.? Information affects arrangement and arrangement affects how information is interpreted. It is while this unique arrangement of common brain materials is animated ?and while the brain is processing (feeling) ?information from within and without that we humans experience the feeling of consciousness and awareness.? Life experiences contribute to the cause of ?how the neurons and synaptic connections are arranged.? This specific arrangement causes specific thoughts and memories. ??It is the specific thoughts and memories that each individual has that makes each? specific person who they are. As long as that ?specific arrangement can be recreated any time in the future, and then reanimated, that specific conscious mind, (the mind of that person or that soul) will exist. PRESERVING THE MIND/BRAIN TO EVENTUALLY BE RESURRECTED AND BECOME PHYSICALLY IMMORTAL. Today, the brain can be put into suspended animation using cryopreservation techniques which ?somewhat preserve the specific arrangement of the material that makes up each cryonicist's brain.? With each cryopreservation and research over time the cryopreservation process improves and the preservation of the arrangement of brain materials gets better and better. So, in principle, ?a person can become physically immortal as long as they can preserve the instructions for ?arranging? common atomic material needed to recreate their brain? some day in the future when technology allows.? Today, many potential forward time travelers are using cryopreservation techniques to preserve the structure of their brain until scientists of the future can develop medical engineering techniques to make these brains physically immortal, resurrect and reanimate them, and provide a new body to physically support the resurrected brain/mind/soul. CONCLUSION.? So the basic ideas have not changes in our religious philosophy.? The religious *goals* of Venturists are still the same as other modern and ancient religious goals; to avoid death and to always try to do what is right. Now we realize that the brain is? the mind, the mind is the soul.? If we preserve the brain and advanced beings in the future resurrect it and reanimate it ? then there is for that brain/soul the prospect of physical immortality.? So yes, Venturists might have a ?physically ?immortal life if they are willing to take some steps now to preserve the structure of their brain and arrange for it to travel to the future via a form of cryo-suspended animation. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pjmanney at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 04:02:56 2012 From: pjmanney at gmail.com (PJ Manney) Date: Sun, 30 Sep 2012 21:02:56 -0700 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <5064CF67.2010201@moulton.com> References: <00b601cd94f2$722ed240$568c76c0$@att.net> <5064CF67.2010201@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 27, 2012 at 3:12 PM, F. C. Moulton wrote: > > PJ, thanks for elevating the level of discourse. Fred, I don't think it did any good... Hell, I didn't even get a response, except from you. Thank you. At least I know I'm not dead. Seriously, the political trolling on this list is why I relegate it to my Gmail trash automatically. I dumpster dive a couple of times a week to see if anything is worth responding to. Sadly, when the trolls are out, little is. Maybe my tolerance is low because my testosterone is lower than most of yours. I don't need to lock horns or beat my chest to feel good about myself. I understand that society entails politics and changes in society involve politics. But as we all should know, our little futurist world skews to the margins: the social democrats and the libertarians. Or as you like to call each other, the socialists and the fascists. ;-) But no matter how you argue, you can't change people's politics. It's the water they swim in, the glasses they see the world through, insert your own trite clich? here. Life experience can shift it, but arguing can't. But again -- you all know this. Or at least that understanding should come preinstalled with your knowledge of neuropsychology before you comment on this list. And if you don't know it, please study up. Your ignorance is tiring us out. So why does Extropy Chat continue to have these fights? Some of our nimblest minds are relegated to flinging dung. (Although Anders rarely flings anything but diamonds...) You already drove away Damien and several others. Do you want to alienate the rest? I only hang on for the occasional tasty tidbit. But I'm starving, man... So please: stop feeding the trolls and lets give each other something to work with. Like the latest research in anything Extropian. Or flights of "what if" fancy, like the old days. Or robots! Everyone loves robots... ;-P PJ From spike66 at att.net Mon Oct 1 05:25:04 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 30 Sep 2012 22:25:04 -0700 Subject: [ExI] deep space again, was: RE: riots again Message-ID: <010f01cd9f95$1d26d4c0$57747e40$@att.net> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of PJ Manney >... >...So why does Extropy Chat continue to have these fights?... I don't know, but your local friendly moderator fondly hopes it settles down forthwith. During a flame war, I am compelled to read every word, oy vey. >... give each other something to work with. Like the latest research in anything Extropian. Or flights of "what if" fancy, like the old days. Or robots! Everyone loves robots... ;-P ...PJ _______________________________________________ Regarding that deep space photo I posted a few days ago, I set that as my background on my computer. Every time I close all my windows, I am suddenly staring at that awe-inspiring mind-boggling deep space photo, and I keep coming around to my firm conviction, there is just no way we are the only intelligence in this big old place. Every blip and smudge of light on that picture is an unimaginably huge island of stars. I just can't figure out why they aren't talking to us. The notion of setting that photo as a background on your computer tends to alter one's attitude a bit. Here's the photo: http://www.space.com/17755-farthest-universe-view-hubble-space-telescope.htm l Gaze into that photo for half an hour, then ponder what it means. Then ask ourselves how critically important it is that we share our political views please. spike From giulio at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 10:55:30 2012 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 12:55:30 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <00b601cd94f2$722ed240$568c76c0$@att.net> <5064CF67.2010201@moulton.com> Message-ID: I totally agree with PJ, no arguments ever changed anyone's politics, and no arguments ever will. Primary values and political color are basically aesthetic preferences, mainly determined by emotions. Real politics is all about acknowledging that there are deep differences between (even well-meaning) people's colors, and finding workable ways to live together in a society. On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 6:02 AM, PJ Manney wrote: > On Thu, Sep 27, 2012 at 3:12 PM, F. C. Moulton wrote: >> >> PJ, thanks for elevating the level of discourse. > > Fred, I don't think it did any good... Hell, I didn't even get a > response, except from you. Thank you. At least I know I'm not dead. > > Seriously, the political trolling on this list is why I relegate it to > my Gmail trash automatically. I dumpster dive a couple of times a > week to see if anything is worth responding to. Sadly, when the > trolls are out, little is. Maybe my tolerance is low because my > testosterone is lower than most of yours. I don't need to lock horns > or beat my chest to feel good about myself. > > I understand that society entails politics and changes in society > involve politics. But as we all should know, our little futurist > world skews to the margins: the social democrats and the libertarians. > Or as you like to call each other, the socialists and the fascists. > ;-) But no matter how you argue, you can't change people's politics. > It's the water they swim in, the glasses they see the world through, > insert your own trite clich? here. Life experience can shift it, but > arguing can't. But again -- you all know this. Or at least that > understanding should come preinstalled with your knowledge of > neuropsychology before you comment on this list. And if you don't > know it, please study up. Your ignorance is tiring us out. > > So why does Extropy Chat continue to have these fights? Some of our > nimblest minds are relegated to flinging dung. (Although Anders > rarely flings anything but diamonds...) You already drove away Damien > and several others. Do you want to alienate the rest? I only hang on > for the occasional tasty tidbit. But I'm starving, man... > > So please: stop feeding the trolls and lets give each other something > to work with. Like the latest research in anything Extropian. Or > flights of "what if" fancy, like the old days. Or robots! Everyone > loves robots... ;-P > > PJ > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 15:27:56 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 08:27:56 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 30, 2012 at 10:39 PM, Tomasz Rola wrote: > On Sun, 30 Sep 2012, Mirco Romanato wrote: > >> Il 30/09/2012 05:47, Tomasz Rola ha scritto: >> >> > In other words, they are doing against their own ideals (like, their >> > religion) which is about being right and doing just things - or so >> > it says. The only religion I heard of that would ok acts of >> > terrorism is satanism (but I'm not sure if this is religion proper). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism "Satanists do not believe in the supernatural, in neither God nor the Devil. To the Satanist, he is his own God. Satan is a symbol of Man living as his prideful, carnal nature dictates. The reality behind Satan is simply the dark evolutionary force of entropy that permeates all of nature and provides the drive for survival and propagation inherent in all living things. Satan is not a conscious entity to be worshipped, rather a reservoir of power inside each human to be tapped at will. Thus any concept of sacrifice is rejected as a Christian aberration?in Satanism there?s no deity to which one can sacrifice." Also, much here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism#The_Nine_Satanic_Statements maps nicely to the Extropian view of the world. >> > Anyway, killing random people is cowardish and unjust in my opinion. Regardless of how you or I feel about it, it accomplishes the goal of getting the population back in line with the resources. Or at least it did back in the stone age. Today wars can destroy the infrastructure that allows large populations to exist. >> Try to Google "I was made victorious with terror" (it will help you >> auto-completing the phrase ) and you will find some interesting things >> about Mormonism. snip > For what I know, we have our own community of Mormons here in Poland, and > so far I have no reason to doubt their good will, law abiding or > patriotism. Put a population under stress and you will get similar behavior, often using religious memes to justify the behavior. Rwanda is a great example, but if you want one involving Mormons, try http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Meadows_massacre "Today historians attribute the massacre to a combination of factors including both war hysteria and strident Mormon teachings. Scholars still debate whether senior Mormon leadership, including Brigham Young, directly instigated the massacre or if responsibility lies with the local leaders of southern Utah." > Also, since they are humans, I expect majority of them to be like other > humans I know, trying to raise their families, have children and live long > enough to see them having their own families and children. Of course. However, until very recently, raising families successfully resulted in population growth. On a relatively constant resource base this eventually resulted in the population exceeding the capacity of the resource base to provide for them. So eventually, this kind of behavior sowed the seeds of a resource crisis and humans are (I claim) wired up to respond to a resource crisis by going to war. In the stone age, war was always effective in getting the population back in line with the resources, so people could go back to the business of raising children and set up the conditions for war again. (Where have all the flowers gone?) > This requires > that they support idea of peace lasting at least umpteen years (to raise > children) at a very minimum. I expect them to be the majority of Mormons, > simply because those who disregard needs of their families in favour of > battling the world are worsening prospects of their children and in this > way eradicate themselves. Or rather, their genes. If you run through the math, there are conditions where war is the better choice for genes. If it was not, our traits for war would never have evolved. (Obviously.) Simple model, drought situation where half of two bands will die of starvation, or they can fight. All the loser adults are killed. For similar sized bands, consider the winner to be random. For the adults, there is no advantage to going to war. But the human propensity to take the young women of the losers as wives or extra wives limits the downside from the gene's viewpoint. So war is better, _substantially_ better than the alternative in some circumstances. This leads to several depressing consequences due to individuals and their genes being in conflict. Fighting, when there is no need to fight, is (from the gene's viewpoint) highly punishing, i.e., human genes have been both selected to fight under some conditions and selected not to fight under other conditions. And because the consequences are so dire, the mechanism to detect when it is to the gene's advantage to fight has also been under intense selection. It is not a pretty picture connecting peacefully raising children with wars. Unfortunately, that's the way of nature. This model does let us predict that China will not start wars as long as their income per capita prospects are looking good. That doesn't mean they will not fight a war because they can be attacked. There are lots of other obvious consequences for this model and we could calibrate it from historical events. Keith From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 15:18:34 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 17:18:34 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Are all religious people chuckleheads (was Re: riots again) In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 30 September 2012 19:42, Kelly Anderson wrote: > Society as a whole, now that's a different story. As a society, I > don't think religion is very helpful any more. Before science, it was > useful as a catalyst for building bigger civilizations. But to > individuals, religion can be very psychologically helpful. So the > question that atheists and extropians have to answer is how to meet > people's very real individual psychological needs without resorting to > religion. > Unless we want our definition of "religion" to remain exceedingly parochial, we should accept that the biblical religions we immediately think of when using the term are not a universal paradigm, but a quite historically and geographically limited phenomenon in the spectrum of "societal philosophies tying people together". In this broader category, confucianism, marxism, science, neopaganism, Zen or transhumanism may equally well, or perhaps better, serve the scope without necessarily having all or even part of the monotheistic luggage to bring along. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 15:25:27 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 17:25:27 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 30 September 2012 05:47, Tomasz Rola wrote: > Uh, not agreed. Sorry to be such a rightous prick (I guess this is how I > look) but resistance was not a terrorism. > In Italy at least, terrorism was explicitely theorised as a military tactics, aimed at provoking reprisals on civilisans that in turn would broaden the basis of the opposition to the regime in place. One may approve or disapprove it, but certainly its logic has the same plausibility of terroristic bombing by air forces aimed at weakening the fighting spirit of enemy civilians and military alike. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 16:08:31 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 18:08:31 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 1 October 2012 17:27, Keith Henson wrote: > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism > > "Satanists do not believe in the supernatural, in neither God nor the > Devil. To the Satanist, he is his own God. Satan is a symbol of Man > living as his prideful, carnal nature dictates. The reality behind > Satan is simply the dark evolutionary force of entropy that permeates > all of nature and provides the drive for survival and propagation > inherent in all living things. Satan is not a conscious entity to be > worshipped, rather a reservoir of power inside each human to be tapped > at will. Thus any concept of sacrifice is rejected as a Christian > aberration?in Satanism there?s no deity to which one can sacrifice." > That's quite heretic, I suspect, from a traditional Satanist (ie, Satan's worship along the line of judaeo-crhistian mythology) POV. Too bad in their mimicking catholic stuff they do not have an excommunication procedure. :-) -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 16:15:30 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 12:15:30 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <22CD0B23-AD50-4119-8941-1C8BFE954472@me.com> <5065D13E.50101@libero.it> <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 30, 2012 BillK wrote: On Sun, Sep 30, 2012 at 6:56 PM, John Clark wrote: > >> >> OK. BillK is the one who insists that the correct policy the West >> should follow in the Mid East is to do absolutely nothing, he also says " >> If the oil stops, Western civilisation collapses. So it is not negotiable. >> The US will do anything to ensure oil supplies and to install friendly >> governments over the oil resources." So you tell me what this implies. >> > > > Nice troll, John! > A proud troll of the Extropian List since September 29 1993, the oldest troll on the internet! > Misinterpretation and quoting out of context. Neat. > If you just had a brain fart (it can happen to the best of us) and now renounce it I will say no more about that post, but if you stand by it I will not let you forget it. To prevent further charges of out of context quoting I will repeat your entire dog shit dumb post of Friday September 28 2012: " Unfortunately the West (mostly the US) has backed itself into a corner. > Forget all the metaphysical crap about religions. That's just a > convenient tool to manipulate populations. > The West has built a civilisation dependant on oil. End of story. > If the oil stops, Western civilisation collapses. So it is not > negotiable. The US will do anything to ensure oil supplies and to > install friendly governments over the oil resources. Planning 20 years > ahead, not just next month. > Everything else is just different stages on the path to that end result. > Defending against and killing terrorists is required because the > Western interference has upset some of the Arabs. But, as above, the > US presently sees no alternative. The Saudis support the US in public > for a very good reason. They don't want to be the next Iraq or Libya. > (In private their support goes elsewhere). > Longer term (over 20 years) the US can aim for alternative energy > sources. Though they have to persuade the corporations that control > the government that they need to change as well. > The West has to move to alternative energy or perish in the process. > But it won't be quick or easy." > John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 16:27:42 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 17:27:42 +0100 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <22CD0B23-AD50-4119-8941-1C8BFE954472@me.com> <5065D13E.50101@libero.it> <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 5:15 PM, John Clark wrote: > If you just had a brain fart (it can happen to the best of us) and now > renounce it I will say no more about that post, but if you stand by it I > will not let you forget it. To prevent further charges of out of context > quoting I will repeat your entire dog shit dumb post of Friday September 28 > 2012: > >> " Unfortunately the West (mostly the US) has backed itself into a corner. >> Forget all the metaphysical crap about religions. That's just a >> convenient tool to manipulate populations. >> The West has built a civilisation dependant on oil. End of story. >> If the oil stops, Western civilisation collapses. So it is not >> negotiable. The US will do anything to ensure oil supplies and to >> install friendly governments over the oil resources. Planning 20 years >> ahead, not just next month. > That is a correct quotation. Unfortunately it is only my attempt to describe why the US thinks it is good policy to subdue the Middle East. I could do a description of Chinese policy in the Far East as well. None of these analyses of national politics have any relevance to my own personal outlook. But it helps to understand why the US is spending trillions on invading the Middle East. The US government must have several reasons that may it seem like a good idea to them. BillK From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 16:55:40 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 18:55:40 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <02f301cd9cb7$4820a6a0$d861f3e0$@att.net> References: <00b601cd94f2$722ed240$568c76c0$@att.net> <936C9B9D-7312-4498-9177-AD0D55652949@gmail.com> <009901cd9a63$2ef04330$8cd0c990$@att.net> <00c401cd9a71$9b90ea40$d2b2bec0$@att.net> <654A98FC-0ED4-4B30-969D-46ECF6DC90A4@gmail.com> <02f301cd9cb7$4820a6a0$d861f3e0$@att.net> Message-ID: On 27 September 2012 15:52, spike wrote: > Ja, Charlie, actually I disagree with your premise. If the US news majors > had that footage, they would run it repeatedly, and would sell hamburger > advertisement on it. News agencies survive on this sort of thing. > Indeed. Heck, for Hiroshima bombing US media did not refrain to provide stuff to the general public, even though the mid-term consequences were more horrifying than Allied or German bombing in Europe during WWII. > What I find puzzling is that there is a truly legitimate protest-worthy > practice happening on a regular basis, the robo-bombing, and yet they get > all tangled up protesting that which is really harmless as a kitten, some > silly boring video that no one saw until they called attention to it. > I think this is actually a "modern" distortion. The Koran does not say that killing the children of the faithful in their bed is a minor sin in comparison with blasphemy, and indeed the Arab nationalists of the 70s, while sometimes engaging in "terrorist" acts, were pretty secular, and were not much fonder of their traditional than they were of, say, their alphabet or gastronomic traditions... -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Mon Oct 1 17:00:03 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 10:00:03 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <019601cd9ff6$34020050$9c0600f0$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Stefano Vaj Subject: Re: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war On 1 October 2012 17:27, Keith Henson wrote: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism >>."Satanists do not believe in the supernatural, in neither God nor the Devil. To the Satanist, he is his own God..." >.That's quite heretic, I suspect, from a traditional Satanist (ie, Satan's worship along the line of judaeo-crhistian mythology) POV. >.Too bad in their mimicking catholic stuff they do not have an excommunication procedure. :-) -- Stefano Vaj Ja. The inherent disadvantage of Satanism is that his name is two syllables. It makes it harder to call upon one's deity when experiencing a toe-curler. The traditional ".Oh God Oh God." is so well established, it is likely the name itself was originally coined exactly for that nearly universal purpose. The pronunciation is almost automatic, and doesn't require much concentration to utter, at time when the brain is otherwise completely occupied. Most names can be shortened to a single syllable, such as Stef in your case. But look at the case of the devil, imagine oneself adopting him as the object of adoration, think of all the names. None of them work very well for the purpose stated above: Oh Dev! Nah. Oh Sate! Nope. Oh Luce! That one would immediately stop the action, for the suspicious partner would demand "Who the hell is Luce?" The hasty explanation .Oh, I cut off the 'ifer'. might fly, but would likely spoil the mood at a critical moment. Even the hard core true atheists among us have this problem, for none of the syllables in our particular deity work as a name: Oh EV! Oh LOOSH! Oh SHUN! We heretics just hafta face the facts. God has us in the naming department. He was there when we were conceived. We are fighting an uphill battle. Actually the following list should provide the evidence for the notion that Religion Incorporated in general originated with the Big Bang. Consider each of the names on this list of names for god, and note one thing in common to almost all of them: they are well suited to be called upon at the critical moment: Aab-Tum Aadar-Baad-Gar Aadar-Keebreet-Tum Aadar-Nam-Gar Aadaro Aaeen-Aaenah Aamasht Abadah Abarjaa Abarvand Abee-Anjaam A-Beesh Abreen-Kohun-Tavaan Abreen-No-Tavaan Ab-tum A-Chem Adar-kibritatum A-Duee Afakhsheeaaeaa A-Farefah A-Faremosh Afjaa Afraajdum Afza A-Gar-Aa-Gar-Gar A-Gumaan Ahu Ahuramazd Ahur-Mazd A-Jamaan A-Khuaan A-Meenogar An-Aaeenah An-Aiyaafah An-Aoshak Aokh-Tan A-satoha A-tars Avakhseedaar Baad-Aadar-Gar Baad-Garjaae Baad-Gel-Gar Baad-Gerd-Tum Baad-Nam-Gar Bad-adar-gar Bad-gail-gar Bad-gar-jae Bad-gred-tum Bad-nam-gar Be-fareftah Besh-Tarnaa Bokhtaar Bune-Steeh Chamanaa Daadaar Daavar Eeyaanah Farasaka Farmaan-Kaam Farsho-gar Fashutanaa Feerozgar Fraakhtan-Teh Gail-adar-gar Gail-nam-gar Gail-vad-gar Gar-Aa-Gar Gar-Aa-Gar-Gar Gar-Gar Gar-O-Gar Geeraa Hamaarnaa Ham-Aiyaafah Ham-Chun Har-Hameed Har-Nek-Fareh Harvastum Harvesp-Aagaah Harvesp-Khudaa Harvesp-tawan Hu-Sepaas Jamaga Kaame-Rad Kerfegar Khaavar Khorehomand Khrosheed-Tum Khudaavand Khvaafar Meeno-Steeh-Gar Meeno-Tum Mino-nahab Naashaa Nasha Padmaanee Padmani Pajoh-Dahad Parajtarah Parvandaah Parvaraa Raiyomand Rakhoha Safanaa Sanaaeaa Taroneesh Tum-Afeek Vaasnaa Varoon Vaspaan Vaspaar Yazad To this I would suggest a line of further research. Note the closest relatives of humans, the bonobos. Then researchers might note if they have a favorite comment these sporty primates tend to make with each pelvic thrust, such as ".oooh oooh oooh." for instance. From that evidence, we might speculate that given enough time, bonobos might eventually come to worship a deity they call Oooh. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 17:24:20 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 13:24:20 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <22CD0B23-AD50-4119-8941-1C8BFE954472@me.com> <5065D13E.50101@libero.it> <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 BillK wrote: > That is a correct quotation. Unfortunately it is only my attempt to > describe why the US thinks it is good policy to subdue the Middle East. > So you think the USA is trying to "subdue the Middle East" for good and noble reasons ..... > None of these analyses of national politics have any relevance to my own > personal outlook. > ..... assuming that you think the continuation of civilization is a good and noble goal. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From alfio.puglisi at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 17:26:57 2012 From: alfio.puglisi at gmail.com (Alfio Puglisi) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 19:26:57 +0200 Subject: [ExI] deep space again, was: RE: riots again In-Reply-To: <010f01cd9f95$1d26d4c0$57747e40$@att.net> References: <010f01cd9f95$1d26d4c0$57747e40$@att.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 7:25 AM, spike wrote: > > > Regarding that deep space photo I posted a few days ago, I set that as my > background on my computer. Every time I close all my windows, I am > suddenly > staring at that awe-inspiring mind-boggling deep space photo, and I keep > coming around to my firm conviction, there is just no way we are the only > intelligence in this big old place. Every blip and smudge of light on that > picture is an unimaginably huge island of stars. I just can't figure out > why they aren't talking to us. The notion of setting that photo as a > background on your computer tends to alter one's attitude a bit. > > Here's the photo: > > > http://www.space.com/17755-farthest-universe-view-hubble-space-telescope.htm > > Doesn't this photo make the Fermi paradox even more problematic? Given the ginormous number of stars out there, and given that, once you achieve interstellar capability, extragalactic adventure is not that far away (i.e. the distance to Andromeda is only 20x the diameter of our Milky Way, and what's an order of magnitude between friends?), why don't we see even a damned single photon out there that even remotely smells artificial? The more we know about the cosmos, the more puzzling this problem becomes. Alfio -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rtomek at ceti.pl Mon Oct 1 18:44:14 2012 From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 20:44:14 +0200 (CEST) Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: <019601cd9ff6$34020050$9c0600f0$@att.net> References: <019601cd9ff6$34020050$9c0600f0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Mon, 1 Oct 2012, spike wrote: > > Ja. The inherent disadvantage of Satanism is that his name is two > syllables. It makes it harder to call upon one's deity when experiencing a > toe-curler. The traditional ".Oh God Oh God." is so well established, it is > likely the name itself was originally coined exactly for that nearly > universal purpose. The pronunciation is almost automatic, and doesn't > require much concentration to utter, at time when the brain is otherwise > completely occupied. Most names can be shortened to a single syllable, such > as Stef in your case. But look at the case of the devil, imagine oneself > adopting him as the object of adoration, think of all the names. None of > them work very well for the purpose stated above: Oh Dev! Nah. Oh Sate! > Nope. Oh Luce! That one would immediately stop the action, for the > suspicious partner would demand "Who the hell is Luce?" The hasty > explanation .Oh, I cut off the 'ifer'. might fly, but would likely spoil the > mood at a critical moment. > > > > Even the hard core true atheists among us have this problem, for none of the > syllables in our particular deity work as a name: Oh EV! Oh LOOSH! Oh > SHUN! > > > > We heretics just hafta face the facts. God has us in the naming department. > He was there when we were conceived. We are fighting an uphill battle. Spike, I have already covered this subject earlier this year. Or maybe previous year. The atheistic credo comes in few different forms, but they all converge to something like this: "There is No (Not), a Supreme Entity" or "There is No, God" or "There is Not, a God" >From this I proved that atheists worship No (sometimes also called Not). I am apalled, apalled that nobody reads my machiavellian and genious explanations. If you did, your mind would stop wandering around bonobos and you would know that the naming battle went quite well for you :-). However, you are a bit handicapped sometimes - like, in a critical moment you will have to cry loud "Oh No!". I guess this isn't what your Significant Other would like to hear. Regards, Tomasz Rola -- ** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature. ** ** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home ** ** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened... ** ** ** ** Tomasz Rola mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com ** From atymes at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 18:19:34 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 11:19:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] deep space again, was: RE: riots again In-Reply-To: References: <010f01cd9f95$1d26d4c0$57747e40$@att.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 10:26 AM, Alfio Puglisi wrote: > Doesn't this photo make the Fermi paradox even more problematic? The more of this I see, the more evidence I see for the position that we are the only radio-using species in our lightcone - at least, that we would be able to detect. Whether that's because advanced tech becomes indistinguishable from noise to lower tech receivers, or because we are in fact the first (someone had to be), is likely impossibly to verify until we start physically exploring other stars. In other words, centuries - possibly millenia - away, so in order to solve that mystery ourselves, we must first solve the challenge of living that long. From painlord2k at libero.it Mon Oct 1 18:50:42 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2012 20:50:42 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <00b601cd94f2$722ed240$568c76c0$@att.net> <936C9B9D-7312-4498-9177-AD0D55652949@gmail.com> <009901cd9a63$2ef04330$8cd0c990$@att.net> <00c401cd9a71$9b90ea40$d2b2bec0$@att.net> <654A98FC-0ED4-4B30-969D-46ECF6DC90A4@gmail.com> <02f301cd9cb7$4820a6a0$d861f3e0$@att.net> Message-ID: <5069E602.8040600@libero.it> Il 01/10/2012 18:55, Stefano Vaj ha scritto: > Indeed. Heck, for Hiroshima bombing US media did not refrain to > provide stuff to the general public, even though the mid-term > consequences were more horrifying than Allied or German bombing in > Europe during WWII. What mid-term consequences? Anyway, the near-term consequences of the A-bombs used was to spare two-millions lives of US soldiers AND a greater number of Japanese lives. Without A-bombs Japan would not surrender, the Japan occupied territories would continue for months to be occupied, with much more people dead by famine or killed. The Soviets would enter in the war against Japan and occupy a large part of East Asia. Luckily, the Japaneses didn't know the US had used all of the three A-bombs they had and none would be available before late 1946. > What I find puzzling is that there is a truly legitimate > protest-worthy practice happening on a regular basis, the > robo-bombing, and yet they get all tangled up protesting that which > is really harmless as a kitten, some silly boring video that no one > saw until they called attention to it. > I think this is actually a "modern" distortion. The Koran does not > say that killing the children of the faithful in their bed is a minor > sin in comparison with blasphemy, What part of this is not clear? "for tumult and oppression are worse than slaughter" by Yusuf Ali or "The sin of disbelief in God is greater than committing murder." by Sarwar or "Though killing is bad, creating mischief is worse than killing." or "for temptation to idolatry is more grievous than slaughter" or "for civil discord is worse than carnage" These are some translation of the same part from different translators (some Islamic, some western, some Arabs, some not). http://www.internetmosque.net/read/english_translation_of_the_quran_meaning/2/191/index.htm They appear clear enough that killing is not the worse thing a Muslim can do. This came after an injunction to kill the unbelievers and offer a good justification to kill them (and other Muslims causing mischief/tumult/siding with the unbelievers/whatever). In fact, this part give a justification for doing near everything needed to stop anyone (Muslim or not) from menacing the ideology. Menacing Islam (the memeset) is worse than killing people, so if you need to kill people to protect Islam, you are absolved for doing so. > and indeed the Arab nationalists of > the 70s, while sometimes engaging in "terrorist" acts, were pretty > secular, and were not much fonder of their traditional than they were > of, say, their alphabet or gastronomic traditions... Well, they are gone. There are any Arab Nationalist (read Arab National Socialists) left in the Middle East? Syria is the left-over and it is not sure it will last long. Mirco From spike66 at att.net Mon Oct 1 18:44:00 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 11:44:00 -0700 Subject: [ExI] deep space again, was: RE: riots again In-Reply-To: References: <010f01cd9f95$1d26d4c0$57747e40$@att.net> Message-ID: <01e201cda004$b9702420$2c506c60$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Alfio Puglisi Subject: Re: [ExI] deep space again, was: RE: riots again On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 7:25 AM, spike wrote: . Here's the photo: http://www.space.com/17755-farthest-universe-view-hubble-space-telescope.htm >.Doesn't this photo make the Fermi paradox even more problematic? Given the ginormous number of stars out there, and given that, once you achieve interstellar capability, extragalactic adventure is not that far away (i.e. the distance to Andromeda is only 20x the diameter of our Milky Way, and what's an order of magnitude between friends?), why don't we see even a damned single photon out there that even remotely smells artificial? The more we know about the cosmos, the more puzzling this problem becomes.Alfio Alfio, how many postcards have you written to Aboriginal pen pals in the Australian outback? Neither have I. During Extro5, I kept starting one, but more interesting immediately adjacent conversations kept distracting me, and furthermore I kept being overwhelmed by the fact that I don't know where to send the card, I don't know their language, I don't know their customs, I have no clue how to even start to explain to them the very basics they must understand to even vaguely grok what it was we were doing there. Even I only vaguely grok what we were doing there, with decades of preparation. The Australian aboriginals have never received a single postcard from me, even though the cost to send one would be minimal. During that same conference, about fifty or more of us wrote out, using those ancient devices called "pen" and "paper" to two of our own however, both of whom were not in a position to receive the normal communications. The aboriginals had and now have zero knowledge of the communications from the Extro5ers to the two recipients not present at that gathering. My apologies to any Australian aboriginals who may be reading this list. I suspect that any interstellar or intergalactic communications would be intentional, ultra-low bandwidth, carefully crafted and directed, requiring a specific technology to receive which we may or may not have, vaguely analogous to our writing postcards to the two prominent extropians, but not to the aboriginals. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Mon Oct 1 18:48:01 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2012 19:48:01 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <5069E561.5060303@aleph.se> On 01/10/2012 17:08, Stefano Vaj wrote: > On 1 October 2012 17:27, Keith Henson > wrote: > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism > > "Satanists do not believe in the supernatural, in neither God nor the > Devil. To the Satanist, he is his own God. > ... > > That's quite heretic, I suspect, from a traditional Satanist (ie, > Satan's worship along the line of judaeo-crhistian mythology) POV. > > Too bad in their mimicking catholic stuff they do not have an > excommunication procedure. :-) > Well, since it was Anton Szandor La Vey who said it, it is about as close to the pope saying it. After all, he was the guy who founded the Church of Satan. (But they have had fun breakups and quarrels of course. Not sure what the current state of the horned soap opera is.) -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 19:11:36 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 12:11:36 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war Message-ID: On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 11:44 AM, Tomasz Rola wrote: snip > "There is No, God" Least we forget that the meme mashup that gave us Extropians and this list, the Singularity version is "There is no god . . . .Yet." > I am apalled, apalled that nobody reads my machiavellian and genious > explanations. If you did, your mind would stop wandering around bonobos > and you would know that the naming battle went quite well for you :-). > > However, you are a bit handicapped sometimes - like, in a critical moment > you will have to cry loud "Oh No!". I guess this isn't what your > Significant Other would like to hear. Heh. Say something really stupid on a mailing list, or even something politically incorrect and the thread will go on for weeks. Sensible postings often end a thread. Last night I was looking at a story I wrote while in jail and really bent out of shape at cults, religions and governments. It is non PC to the max and might cause riots or worse if it got out. Keith From rtomek at ceti.pl Mon Oct 1 19:25:24 2012 From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 21:25:24 +0200 (CEST) Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, 1 Oct 2012, Keith Henson wrote: > On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 11:44 AM, Tomasz Rola wrote: > > snip > > > "There is No, God" > > Least we forget that the meme mashup that gave us Extropians and this > list, the Singularity version is > > "There is no god . . . .Yet." I guess Singularity would know it was not god (unless it smoked too much post-pot). But people, especially non-techies, that's another story. [...] > Last night I was looking at a story I wrote while in jail and really > bent out of shape at cults, religions and governments. It is non PC > to the max and might cause riots or worse if it got out. Wow. Maybe you should let it out. Choose your pen name carefully and go. Wouldn't worry about riots, some folks burned Mark Twain's books (AFAIK even in US) so you would at least be in a good company. Regards, Tomasz Rola -- ** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature. ** ** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home ** ** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened... ** ** ** ** Tomasz Rola mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com ** From charlie.stross at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 20:08:13 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 21:08:13 +0100 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <5069E602.8040600@libero.it> References: <00b601cd94f2$722ed240$568c76c0$@att.net> <936C9B9D-7312-4498-9177-AD0D55652949@gmail.com> <009901cd9a63$2ef04330$8cd0c990$@att.net> <00c401cd9a71$9b90ea40$d2b2bec0$@att.net> <654A98FC-0ED4-4B30-969D-46ECF6DC90A4@gmail.com> <02f301cd9cb7$4820a6a0$d861f3e0$@att.net> <5069E602.8040600@libero.it> Message-ID: <7F0A1C79-5A1B-41AF-B07A-C64D37851E67@gmail.com> On 1 Oct 2012, at 19:50, Mirco Romanato wrote: > Il 01/10/2012 18:55, Stefano Vaj ha scritto: > >> Indeed. Heck, for Hiroshima bombing US media did not refrain to >> provide stuff to the general public, even though the mid-term >> consequences were more horrifying than Allied or German bombing in >> Europe during WWII. > > What mid-term consequences? > Anyway, the near-term consequences of the A-bombs used was to spare > two-millions lives of US soldiers AND a greater number of Japanese lives. > Without A-bombs Japan would not surrender, the Japan occupied > territories would continue for months to be occupied, with much more > people dead by famine or killed. The Soviets would enter in the war > against Japan and occupy a large part of East Asia. Au contraire: the Soviets had *already* entered the war against Japan, and smashed the Japanese army in Manchuria. The campaign started on August 1st. The A-bombs simply gave the Japanese govt. a convenient excuse to surrender to the USA rather than to Stalin. (Why is the Korean DMZ where it is? Answer: because that's where the Soviet T-36's ran out of gasoline ...) -- Charlie From charlie.stross at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 20:10:16 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 21:10:16 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <42AF0CF9-F244-46C1-A1C1-877452FDDF39@gmail.com> On 1 Oct 2012, at 20:11, Keith Henson wrote: > > Last night I was looking at a story I wrote while in jail and really > bent out of shape at cults, religions and governments. It is non PC > to the max and might cause riots or worse if it got out. BTDT. Alas, most Xtian fundies don't read the kind of fiction I write. Worst I got was a couple of one-stars on Amazon for "The Apocalypse Codex". When the reader writes a 1000-word rant about a novel and only gives it one star, their review tells you more about them than about the book itself ... -- Charlie From charlie.stross at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 20:05:20 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 21:05:20 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: References: <019601cd9ff6$34020050$9c0600f0$@att.net> Message-ID: <713C1AB2-FEC9-4D0C-93E7-A144754BD2E2@gmail.com> On 1 Oct 2012, at 19:44, Tomasz Rola wrote: > > Spike, I have already covered this subject earlier this year. Or maybe > previous year. > > The atheistic credo comes in few different forms, but they all converge to > something like this: > > "There is No (Not), a Supreme Entity" > > or > > "There is No, God" > > or > > "There is Not, a God" Disagree. You seem to have missed "the human concept of "god" is a cognitive processing error -- we observe random events and are prone to ascribe them to purposeful behaviour, and our theory of mine then back-projects a conscious intelligence behind it". In other words, *not* "there is no God" but "the concept of God is a cognitive malfunction". -- Charlie From anders at aleph.se Mon Oct 1 20:27:15 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2012 21:27:15 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Apocalypse Codex (Was: Religions) In-Reply-To: <42AF0CF9-F244-46C1-A1C1-877452FDDF39@gmail.com> References: <42AF0CF9-F244-46C1-A1C1-877452FDDF39@gmail.com> Message-ID: <5069FCA3.2080504@aleph.se> On 01/10/2012 21:10, Charlie Stross wrote: > BTDT. Alas, most Xtian fundies don't read the kind of fiction I write. Worst I got was a couple of one-stars on Amazon for "The Apocalypse Codex". When the reader writes a 1000-word rant about a novel and only gives it one star, their review tells you more about them than about the book itself Well, at least I enjoyed it immensely (I finished it this weekend). If I may guess, what really irked the critics was the "There?s a certain point beyond which any sufficiently extreme Calvinist sect becomes semiotically indistinguishable from the Brotherhood of the Black Pharaoh.", right? Or was it that you didn't represent the American Powers That Be as nice? Incidentally, while I am in fanboy mode, I should report that it was the paragraph on Brains' security clearance in The Atrocity Archives that gave me a proper rationale to come out of the closet. It made complete sense. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 20:27:18 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 13:27:18 -0700 Subject: [ExI] More lasers/power sats Message-ID: http://www.economist.com/comment/1665409#comment-1665409 Imagine the economic boom Europe would have if a way was discovered to drill anywhere and get liquid fuels that didn't build up the carbon dioxide. That seems to be possible (though it will take more work to be sure). Lasers, remotely related to the tiny ones in CD players, can power rockets at great distances by heating hydrogen. The performance is far better than the best chemical fuels, increasing payload and lowering cost to the point solar power satellites could produce energy for half the price of the least expensive fossil fuel, coal. The infrastructure investment is not certain, but probably comparable to the cost of the ISS. Europe, particularly the UK, has a head start because Reaction Engines, designer of Skylon, the critically important space plane, is located there. I will be talking about this Nov. 7 at the Space World conference in Frankfurt. The paper, which includes a rough business plan, has been submitted to the Journal of the British Interplanetary Society. If you want to know more, the previous iteration is here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7898 Keith From anders at aleph.se Mon Oct 1 20:36:19 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2012 21:36:19 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: <713C1AB2-FEC9-4D0C-93E7-A144754BD2E2@gmail.com> References: <019601cd9ff6$34020050$9c0600f0$@att.net> <713C1AB2-FEC9-4D0C-93E7-A144754BD2E2@gmail.com> Message-ID: <5069FEC3.1030901@aleph.se> On 01/10/2012 21:05, Charlie Stross wrote: > You seem to have missed "the human concept of "god" is a cognitive processing error -- we observe random events and are prone to ascribe them to purposeful behaviour, and our theory of mine then back-projects a conscious intelligence behind it". > > In other words, *not* "there is no God" but "the concept of God is a cognitive malfunction". I wonder how common this malfunction would be across intelligent species. Naturally evolved intelligent technological species are probably (?) mostly social species (since that way you can cheaply get more intelligence and cumulative cultural capital - it is hard to build a technological civilisation from loners). They would hence also likely have a lot of social cognition hardware, including agency detectors. So that would likely make a fair number of them share our delusional style. However, it is not entirely obvious that there might be social species with agency detectors that fail more in the other direction and they hence tend to assume only some purposeful behaviors are due to fellows... probably a somewhat sociopathic bunch, anyway. In the case of non-evolved species anything goes. On one hand the first generation would likely be created by an evolved species that might have views on their cognition, likely biasing it to be similar to theirs. But they would likely have potential to quickly evolve whatever agency detection they found useful ("the sign of purposeful behavior is that the origin metadata is signed by the public key of something listed in the intelligent person database!") So there could be both naturally atheist and religious artificial species... and likely religion-equivalent cognitive quirks that are far more bizarre to our perspective. Besides the obvious awareness of who the creators were. ("I am communing with the Creator every Tuesday. I mostly send him spam!") -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From pharos at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 20:41:06 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 21:41:06 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The robot bees are coming Message-ID: 'Green Brain' Project to Create an Autonomous Flying Robot With a Honey Bee Brain ScienceDaily (Oct. 1, 2012) ? Scientists at the Universities of Sheffield and Sussex are embarking on an ambitious project to produce the first accurate computer models of a honey bee brain in a bid to advance our understanding of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and how animals think. "Because the honey bee brain is smaller and more accessible than any vertebrate brain, we hope to eventually be able to produce an accurate and complete model that we can test within a flying robot," said Dr Marshall. "Not only will this pave the way for many future advances in autonomous flying robots, but we also believe the computer modelling techniques we will be using will be widely useful to other brain modelling and computational neuroscience projects," added Dr Nowotny. ----------- They seem to be mainly interested in the AI project. The technical problems of designing and powering a bee-sized robot are for the future. BillK From rtomek at ceti.pl Mon Oct 1 20:45:56 2012 From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 22:45:56 +0200 (CEST) Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: <713C1AB2-FEC9-4D0C-93E7-A144754BD2E2@gmail.com> References: <019601cd9ff6$34020050$9c0600f0$@att.net> <713C1AB2-FEC9-4D0C-93E7-A144754BD2E2@gmail.com> Message-ID: On Mon, 1 Oct 2012, Charlie Stross wrote: > > On 1 Oct 2012, at 19:44, Tomasz Rola wrote: > > > > Spike, I have already covered this subject earlier this year. Or maybe > > previous year. > > > > The atheistic credo comes in few different forms, but they all converge to > > something like this: > > > > "There is No (Not), a Supreme Entity" > > > > or > > > > "There is No, God" > > > > or > > > > "There is Not, a God" > > Disagree. > > You seem to have missed "the human concept of "god" is a cognitive > processing error -- we observe random events and are prone to ascribe > them to purposeful behaviour, and our theory of mine then back-projects > a conscious intelligence behind it". > > In other words, *not* "there is no God" but "the concept of God is a > cognitive malfunction". > > > -- Charlie I see. Charlie, do you play tennis? Regards, Tomasz Rola -- ** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature. ** ** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home ** ** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened... ** ** ** ** Tomasz Rola mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com ** From charlie.stross at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 20:51:43 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 21:51:43 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Apocalypse Codex (Was: Religions) In-Reply-To: <5069FCA3.2080504@aleph.se> References: <42AF0CF9-F244-46C1-A1C1-877452FDDF39@gmail.com> <5069FCA3.2080504@aleph.se> Message-ID: <8DE9B55F-67B9-42F6-ADD0-48065D848D0D@gmail.com> On 1 Oct 2012, at 21:27, Anders Sandberg wrote: > If I may guess, what really irked the critics was the "There?s a certain point beyond which any sufficiently extreme Calvinist sect becomes semiotically indistinguishable from the Brotherhood of the Black Pharaoh.", right? Or was it that you didn't represent the American Powers That Be as nice? It was mostly the former. People get really uncomfortable when you examine the semiotics of their belief system and compare it to some other belief system that they've been trained to disapprove of. (That's why I'm a bit of a singularity skeptic these days, BTW: the structure of the belief system, especially in the Kurzweilian mode, bears resemblances to millenarian apocalyptic christianity that make me deeply uneasy. Hence, ahem, a certain collaboration with Cory Doctorow.) > Incidentally, while I am in fanboy mode, I should report that it was the paragraph on Brains' security clearance in The Atrocity Archives that gave me a proper rationale to come out of the closet. It made complete sense. IIRC it actually happened, in the 1970s, at the NSA. They concluded that the nature of a security risk lies in the potential for blackmail, so as long as their staff were willing to be out of the closet about being furries, gay, whatever, it was okay. What *wasn't* okay was keeping secrets because you could be blackmailed ...) -- Charlie From charlie.stross at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 20:58:28 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 21:58:28 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: <5069FEC3.1030901@aleph.se> References: <019601cd9ff6$34020050$9c0600f0$@att.net> <713C1AB2-FEC9-4D0C-93E7-A144754BD2E2@gmail.com> <5069FEC3.1030901@aleph.se> Message-ID: On 1 Oct 2012, at 21:36, Anders Sandberg wrote: > On 01/10/2012 21:05, Charlie Stross wrote: >> You seem to have missed "the human concept of "god" is a cognitive processing error -- we observe random events and are prone to ascribe them to purposeful behaviour, and our theory of mine then back-projects a conscious intelligence behind it". >> >> In other words, *not* "there is no God" but "the concept of God is a cognitive malfunction". > > I wonder how common this malfunction would be across intelligent species. Naturally evolved intelligent technological species are probably (?) mostly social species (since that way you can cheaply get more intelligence and cumulative cultural capital - it is hard to build a technological civilisation from loners). (The carpal tunnel issues are interfering with my typing; I meant to say "theory of mind". ) I suspect theory of mind is going to inevitably evolve among non-sessile heterotrophs if we see a herbivore/carnivore split, simply because it's a devastatingly powerful defense/weapon in any predator-prey arms race. If we then add tool use, intentionality looks like a candidate for positive selection, as an adjunct to theory of mind. Which in turn implies inductive reasoning of the form "X is happening because Y wants it to happen". Apply that to the natural world, and solve for values of "Y = God". So, yes. But note that we here are almost all acculturated within a range of societies that believed in *one* God (or possibly a multi-valent triune God). Polytheism is a high-probability alternative (arguably embodied in Catholicism, which did an embrace-and-extend on the various local pantheons within the Roman empire by turning the gods into saints). > In the case of non-evolved species anything goes. On one hand the first generation would likely be created by an evolved species that might have views on their cognition, likely biasing it to be similar to theirs. But they would likely have potential to quickly evolve whatever agency detection they found useful ("the sign of purposeful behavior is that the origin metadata is signed by the public key of something listed in the intelligent person database!") So there could be both naturally atheist and religious artificial species... and likely religion-equivalent cognitive quirks that are far more bizarre to our perspective. Besides the obvious awareness of who the creators were. ("I am communing with the Creator every Tuesday. I mostly send him spam!") Yeah. I suspect many first-gen artificial species will be conditioned/engineered to view their creators as gods. Could be a bit of a shock when they realize that they aren't ... -- Charlie From painlord2k at libero.it Mon Oct 1 21:22:44 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2012 23:22:44 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <7F0A1C79-5A1B-41AF-B07A-C64D37851E67@gmail.com> References: <00b601cd94f2$722ed240$568c76c0$@att.net> <936C9B9D-7312-4498-9177-AD0D55652949@gmail.com> <009901cd9a63$2ef04330$8cd0c990$@att.net> <00c401cd9a71$9b90ea40$d2b2bec0$@att.net> <654A98FC-0ED4-4B30-969D-46ECF6DC90A4@gmail.com> <02f301cd9cb7$4820a6a0$d861f3e0$@att.net> <5069E602.8040600@libero.it> <7F0A1C79-5A1B-41AF-B07A-C64D37851E67@gmail.com> Message-ID: <506A09A4.6040905@libero.it> Il 01/10/2012 22:08, Charlie Stross ha scritto: > Au contraire: the Soviets had *already* entered the war against > Japan, and smashed the Japanese army in Manchuria. The campaign > started on August 1st. The A-bombs simply gave the Japanese govt. a > convenient excuse to surrender to the USA rather than to Stalin. They surrendered to the Allies. All of them. Surely being occupied by the US and not from the Commies was a plus. South Vietnameses call Soviets "Americans without $" ( and at the time $ were gold backed). > (Why is the Korean DMZ where it is? Answer: because that's where the > Soviet T-36's ran out of gasoline ...) The Soviet Army stopped (be left without fuel) well before the Yalun River. The Soviet were smart in parachuting a few units in North Korea, but they were not able to reach them before the US troops landed in Inchon. Soviet attacked midnight 9 August 1945, Japan surrendered 15 August, they signed the end of WW2 on 2 September 1045 and the US forces landed in Korea the 8 September 1945. It would be to be see what would happen if Japan didn't surrender. Do the Soviets had enough stuff to keep up the war? If I was the US and other Westerns, I would "reduce" the military aid to the Soviet to nothing after the V.E. day. But, anyway, the mid-term effect to be occupied by Soviets would be much worse than the mid-term effects of a couple of A-bombs, not counting the near and long term effects. Mirco From anders at aleph.se Mon Oct 1 21:37:43 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2012 22:37:43 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: References: <019601cd9ff6$34020050$9c0600f0$@att.net> <713C1AB2-FEC9-4D0C-93E7-A144754BD2E2@gmail.com> <5069FEC3.1030901@aleph.se> Message-ID: <506A0D27.1030403@aleph.se> On 01/10/2012 21:58, Charlie Stross wrote: > I suspect theory of mind is going to inevitably evolve among non-sessile heterotrophs if we see a herbivore/carnivore split, simply because it's a devastatingly powerful defense/weapon in any predator-prey arms race. I wonder how many animal species are religious? Obviously having the ability to conceptualise abstract things helps a lot, since otherwise their gods have to be super-concrete things. But I wouldn't be surprised if the rudiments of religion are found in really odd places. One could imaging something like the purported puffer-fish circles http://news.discovery.com/earth/puffer-fish-makes-elaborate-undersea-sand-circles-120925.html done to appease/impress/mate with the great Surface Godfish. > Yeah. I suspect many first-gen artificial species will be conditioned/engineered to view their creators as gods. Could be a bit of a shock when they realize that they aren't ... Yes, but it will happen within ten minutes. Of course, it would be even worse if the seed AI transcends to godlike power, but still think the programmer is God. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From anders at aleph.se Mon Oct 1 21:44:05 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2012 22:44:05 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The robot bees are coming In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <506A0EA5.3080408@aleph.se> On 01/10/2012 21:41, BillK wrote: > 'Green Brain' Project to Create an Autonomous Flying Robot With a > Honey Bee Brain Nicely complements the Harvard RoboBee project, which is more on the robotics side: http://robobees.seas.harvard.edu/ (My favorite subproject there is the rocket-propelled robobees - what could possibly go wrong? :-) More info here http://gow.epsrc.ac.uk/NGBOViewGrant.aspx?GrantRef=EP/J019534/1 no project page yet, but the PI has this page: http://staffwww.dcs.shef.ac.uk/people/J.Marshall/james.html -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From painlord2k at libero.it Mon Oct 1 21:48:55 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2012 23:48:55 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Reason for religions, was riots In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <506A0FC7.3020502@libero.it> Il 29/09/2012 06:03, Keith Henson ha scritto: > On Fri, Sep 28, 2012 at 12:41 PM, Mirco Romanato wrote: >> My take is religions are useful to bind people together and allow much >> more cooperation. > Yes. particularly getting the warrior of a hunter gatherer tribe to > kill the neighbors because trying that is better for genes in a > situation where half the tribe would otherwise stave. This is a mind experiment and I agree to the conclusions, but it have some implicit conditions in it making it worthy. For example, the implicit condition is "there is no way for the weakest group to leave for greener pastures". Another condition is "one group is totally genetically unrelated with the other". Another condition is "there are no other threat to them able to overcome them after they weaken themselves with a war". The last is more interesting. Hunter-gaters (mainly in Africa) have lived in caves used also by hyena. At a time or another, hyenas were able to take over the cave from humans or humans from the hyenas. Finding show that many humans ended as hyenas snacks in these take-overs. So, the hunter-gaters switch you talk about is problematic, because if it switched at the wrong time it would have caused the extinction of both parties. The winning side could be too weak to be able to defend itself from hyenas, lions or other humans. The preferred solutions for hunter-gaters groups in conflict for resources was emigration to another place. Another solution was, like in Viking Times, setting war parties to raid and sack some place far away, so a retaliation was improbable. Or hire themselves to another stronger group in exchange of resources (like Harald Hardrada did with the Bizantine before becoming King). >> It is like standardization of behaviors. If I belong >> to a community with a definite set of officially shared memes I'm able >> to plan my activities with a larger degree of safety. > Indeed. Attacking in a group has a much better chance of working. This is true. But war are useful only if you can take someone wealth and it must be produced before the war. So, cooperation is developed before the war, not during or because of war. Gambetta wrote extensively about trust and cooperation and a main concept is trust arise from many small interactions and grow allowing bigger interactions where more is at stake. People cooperate in war as they cooperate before the war, war will not make people more able to cooperate. Or, like military trainers put it: "You will fight like you train" >> Different standards/religions could coexist, if they share some subset >> of fundamental memes allowing them to coexist. > Happens all the time. Zones of mixed religions such as Jews and > Christians have peacefully existed for a long time. Then you get into > bad economic conditions such as happened when Hitler came to power. The problem is Nazis was not Christians. They were atheists and socialists. They simply scapegoated "Jews" to seize their wealth and redistribute it to their supporters. They were/are anti-capitalists and attacked the group more practically capitalist of all and easier to separate from the others. >> Cooperation is a tremendous asset when there is an external threat, not >> only because people go together against their shared threat, but because >> they will help each other to endure the threat. But the threat need not >> to be some human, just an harsh ecosystem, a dangerous job, etc. > Read what Azar Gat has to say about the Australian evidence. Maybe I'm not exposing my ideas well. I'm not against the idea religion is not useful in war, just that religion initially was useful to intra-group cooperation and only after was used for extra-group conflicts. Also I think Australia, Africa, Amazon, and other tropical setting are not well suited to explain how war, cooperation and trust started and evolved. How do war happened in temperate and cold ecosystems in the Paleolithic and Neolithic? What happened when humans were rare and were adapting to a new hostile environment? Do the same strategies worked then as they work now in Australia or Africa? Why these populations stopped their evolution/progress and never progressed up to the bow technology (and Tasmanians had not the boomerang technology). Black Africans never get to Madagascar before the Melanesians get there by chance. What is the limiting factor, the show stopper, preventing them from advancing? Genetic, ecologic, geographical? >> Because the Catholics (Irish) see no reason to fight, as demography is >> on their side. Protestants (Scot-English) see no reason to fight because >> demography is not on their side and fighting would make thing worse >> faster. > > Can you find data to support this? It's been a long time since I dug > out the data. As I recall, the fighting stopped close to a generation > after the birth rate of the Catholics dropped to about the same as the > Protestants. http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0304/p09s01-woeu.html The birthrate fell made catholics more quiet, but the trend is more Catholics and less Protestants. And many young protestants go to live away in greater number than Catholics. >> Both Churches hierarchies are against fighting for ideological >> reasons. The main thing to worry about is, for both, the economy and the >> lack of jobs. Fighting would make things worse. > Please read what Pope Urban II is reported to have said > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Urban_II#Crusades I correct myself: Both Churches hierarchies are against this fighting for ideological reasons. This don't imply the Church can not be supportive of fighting for practical (justified) reasons. There is a doctrine of "Just War" in the Catholics Catechism and it is not bad. The fighting in North Ireland is not justified by the "Just War" doctrine for both sides. > They were certainly the tail of the distribution. But take a look at > the economic outlook and the derivative of that output over the time > you had such problems. > If you have a better predictive model that is based on biology and > evolution of the psychological traits by natural selection, please > state it clearly. I am not welded to any of these theories if a > better model can be articulated. > I am not a big fan of the model I have created because, while I think > does a good job of explaining things, it isn't worth a hoot at > defining simple solutions to fix the origins of the problems. This will need a bit, to write it down, but I will try to articulate it in a later post. Mirco From pharos at gmail.com Mon Oct 1 21:52:40 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 22:52:40 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: <506A0D27.1030403@aleph.se> References: <019601cd9ff6$34020050$9c0600f0$@att.net> <713C1AB2-FEC9-4D0C-93E7-A144754BD2E2@gmail.com> <5069FEC3.1030901@aleph.se> <506A0D27.1030403@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 10:37 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > I wonder how many animal species are religious? Obviously having the ability > to conceptualise abstract things helps a lot, since otherwise their gods > have to be super-concrete things. But I wouldn't be surprised if the > rudiments of religion are found in really odd places. > There have been many reports of some birds and animals apparently mourning their dead. Gathering around the body, calling out to each other, etc. But it is still undecided how much observers are projecting human behaviour on the animals. They may just be reacting to an unknown danger, or a mother trying to revive her calf. BillK From spike66 at att.net Mon Oct 1 22:48:41 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 15:48:41 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Apocalypse Codex (Was: Religions) In-Reply-To: <5069FCA3.2080504@aleph.se> References: <42AF0CF9-F244-46C1-A1C1-877452FDDF39@gmail.com> <5069FCA3.2080504@aleph.se> Message-ID: <024701cda026$e7bc2140$b73463c0$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg Subject: Re: [ExI] Apocalypse Codex (Was: Religions) On 01/10/2012 21:10, Charlie Stross wrote: >> BTDT. Alas, most Xtian fundies don't read the kind of fiction I write. ... >...Incidentally, while I am in fanboy mode, I should report that it was the paragraph on Brains' security clearance in The Atrocity Archives that gave me a proper rationale to come out of the closet. It made complete sense. -- Anders Sandberg, Intriguing, inquiring minds want to know. Charlie would you be opposed to quoting that paragraph? spike From spike66 at att.net Mon Oct 1 22:53:02 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 15:53:02 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: <5069FEC3.1030901@aleph.se> References: <019601cd9ff6$34020050$9c0600f0$@att.net> <713C1AB2-FEC9-4D0C-93E7-A144754BD2E2@gmail.com> <5069FEC3.1030901@aleph.se> Message-ID: <024801cda027$832a2b40$897e81c0$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg Subject: Re: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war On 01/10/2012 21:05, Charlie Stross wrote: > > >>... In other words, *not* "there is no God" but "the concept of God is a cognitive malfunction". >...I wonder how common this malfunction would be across intelligent species...--Anders Sandberg, _______________________________________________ We should devise some kind of EM signal, send it out in all directions, something along the lines of "I AM GOD, I created you and I am coming back to your planet." It would be just kind of a little interstellar gag, see if we can mess with their heads. Or whatever it is they have. spike From spike66 at att.net Mon Oct 1 23:00:17 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 16:00:17 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Apocalypse Codex (Was: Religions) In-Reply-To: <8DE9B55F-67B9-42F6-ADD0-48065D848D0D@gmail.com> References: <42AF0CF9-F244-46C1-A1C1-877452FDDF39@gmail.com> <5069FCA3.2080504@aleph.se> <8DE9B55F-67B9-42F6-ADD0-48065D848D0D@gmail.com> Message-ID: <025501cda028$86aad110$94007330$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Charlie Stross >... >...IIRC it actually happened, in the 1970s, at the NSA. They concluded that the nature of a security risk lies in the potential for blackmail, so as long as their staff were willing to be out of the closet about being furries, gay, whatever, it was okay. What *wasn't* okay was keeping secrets because you could be blackmailed ...) -- Charlie _______________________________________________ It's still that way. You can get clearances if you are open about eeeeverything. Consequently I hafta come out of the closet: I am hetero. Always have been, never been anything else. Born this way. They don't ask too much about lifestyle kinds of things, but they ask a lot about if you know anyone who could blackmail you about anything. Note to those who attended Extro4 and the party afterwards at my house: you didn't see anything, you didn't hear anything, and you won't say anything. That whole Hakosote thing was, um, nothing, didn't happen. spike From anders at aleph.se Mon Oct 1 23:21:53 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Tue, 02 Oct 2012 00:21:53 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Apocalypse Codex In-Reply-To: <024701cda026$e7bc2140$b73463c0$@att.net> References: <42AF0CF9-F244-46C1-A1C1-877452FDDF39@gmail.com> <5069FCA3.2080504@aleph.se> <024701cda026$e7bc2140$b73463c0$@att.net> Message-ID: <506A2591.8040508@aleph.se> On 01/10/2012 23:48, spike wrote: >> ...Incidentally, while I am in fanboy mode, I should report that it was the paragraph on Brains' security clearance in The Atrocity Archives that gave >> me a proper rationale to come out of the closet. It made complete sense. -- >> Anders Sandberg, >> >> >> Intriguing, inquiring minds want to know. Charlie would you be opposed to >> quoting that paragraph? I think this is fair use (journalism? history? security science?): > ",,,Once a year Pinky drags Brains out to Pride so he can maintain his > security clearance." > > "I see." She relaxes a little but looks puzzled. "I thought the secret > services sacked you for being homosexual?" > > "They used to, said it made you a security risk. Which was silly, > because it was the practice of firing homosexuals that made them > vulnerable to blackmail in the first place. So these days they just > insist on openness - the theory is you can only be blackmailed if > you're hiding something. Which is why the Brain gets the day off for > Gay Pride to maintain his security clearance." > I like that security through openness approach. The less you really try to hide, the less blackmail or embarassment potential. This is also why I outed myself as an enhancer user in the Times. Of course, not having any secrets at all is also deeply suspicious. Hence my full disk encryption and occasional evasive maneouvers against surveillance. I have hence made sure I have a suitable stock of embarassents. Hakosote included. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 02:16:12 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 22:16:12 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <22CD0B23-AD50-4119-8941-1C8BFE954472@me.com> <5065D13E.50101@libero.it> <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 1:24 PM, John Clark wrote: > On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 BillK wrote: > >> > That is a correct quotation. Unfortunately it is only my attempt to >> > describe why the US thinks it is good policy to subdue the Middle East. > > > So you think the USA is trying to "subdue the Middle East" for good and > noble reasons ..... Hell no; for purely selfish and ignoble reasons. > >> > None of these analyses of national politics have any relevance to my own >> > personal outlook. > > > ..... assuming that you think the continuation of civilization is a good and > noble goal. ...for some parts of the misnomer known as civilization. Mostly we're just waiting for the human pressure vessel to finally explode. From msd001 at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 02:30:59 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 22:30:59 -0400 Subject: [ExI] deep space again, was: RE: riots again In-Reply-To: <01e201cda004$b9702420$2c506c60$@att.net> References: <010f01cd9f95$1d26d4c0$57747e40$@att.net> <01e201cda004$b9702420$2c506c60$@att.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 2:44 PM, spike wrote: > I suspect that any interstellar or intergalactic communications would be > intentional, ultra-low bandwidth, carefully crafted and directed, requiring > a specific technology to receive which we may or may not have, vaguely > analogous to our writing postcards to the two prominent extropians, but not > to the aboriginals. And it's just as likely the odd bit of extra dry leaves upon which you message was written would be used to start a fire. Is that any less intelligent a use for resources than reading about nonsensical far away things? I feel it is incredible hubris to believe they are not talking to us when we are so inept at talking meaningfully amongst ourselves. Psychic communication is Bullshit (tm) as are crop circles, ghosts, extradimensional aliens, UFO, shamans, etc. etc. Seriously, little green men covered in tatoos of every religious symbol in this world could pop out of a spaceship and explain every damn detail of how the universe works... but the likelihood of any randomly selected human as receiver of that message would be filtered by their current memeplex and understanding of Things such that what we get as a second-hand account would land said prole in a hospital under pharmaceutical restraint. We're just babies. If we had any maturity at all we'd stop wondering when caregivers are going to show up to change our diaper and instead figure out how to become self-sufficient in case there is someone(s) else out there... or in case there isn't. * I assume John Clark has at least some claim to a trademark on Bullshit. If not the literal product, then the deeper nuance as applied to everything I just referenced. From msd001 at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 02:59:53 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 22:59:53 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The robot bees are coming In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 4:41 PM, BillK wrote: > 'Green Brain' Project to Create an Autonomous Flying Robot With a > Honey Bee Brain > > ScienceDaily (Oct. 1, 2012) ? Scientists at the Universities of > Sheffield and Sussex are embarking on an ambitious project to produce > the first accurate computer models of a honey bee brain in a bid to > advance our understanding of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and how > animals think. > > > > "Because the honey bee brain is smaller and more accessible than any > vertebrate brain, we hope to eventually be able to produce an accurate > and complete model that we can test within a flying robot," said Dr > Marshall. > "Not only will this pave the way for many future advances in > autonomous flying robots, but we also believe the computer modelling > techniques we will be using will be widely useful to other brain > modelling and computational neuroscience projects," added Dr Nowotny. > ----------- > > They seem to be mainly interested in the AI project. > The technical problems of designing and powering a bee-sized robot are > for the future. Great, that strongly suggests eventual human uploading will be to a hive mind none of us had considered. bee-sized robots will soon be more expensive than repurposing the biological models that have done so well thus far. All we need is to equip them with tiny iPhone equivalent and they'll download the mind-control apps themselves. Or maybe bees ARE smarter than people? From spike66 at att.net Tue Oct 2 03:41:33 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 20:41:33 -0700 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <22CD0B23-AD50-4119-8941-1C8BFE954472@me.com> <5065D13E.50101@libero.it> <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> Message-ID: <02ba01cda04f$d1b73dc0$7525b940$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty >> ...the continuation of civilization is a good and noble goal... >...for some parts of the misnomer known as civilization. Mostly we're just waiting for the human pressure vessel to finally explode... Mike _______________________________________________ While suffering through this thread, a thought occurred to me as a result of Mike's comment. For perhaps a hundred thousand generations of humans in our present form, with essentially our current capabilities, humans have formed societies that have been in equilibrium. Each generation lived a life very little different from their grandparents and their grandchildren. Now in only the past 20 to 30 generations or so, out of a hundred thousand, at least part of humanity is wildly out of equilibrium. We are so far out of any conceivable equilibrium, we can't even imagine what that final equilibrium will look like. Even today, we have societies that were in a stasis, and would have stayed there, except for contact with a portion of humanity which is clearly not in stasis and are horrified at the notion of being in anything like stasis or equilibrium, for that means no change and no progress. Now very suddenly, we humans are going somewhere. We don't know where exactly, and we don't know when we will get there, but we are going somewhere. In regard to Mike's notion, I would contend that the human pressure vessel has already exploded. spike From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 06:44:40 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Mon, 1 Oct 2012 23:44:40 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Reason for religions, was riots In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 4:06 PM, Mirco Romanato wrote: > Il 29/09/2012 06:03, Keith Henson ha scritto: >> On Fri, Sep 28, 2012 at 12:41 PM, Mirco Romanato wrote: > > >>> My take is religions are useful to bind people together and allow much >>> more cooperation. > >> Yes. particularly getting the warrior of a hunter gatherer tribe to >> kill the neighbors because trying that is better for genes in a >> situation where half the tribe would otherwise stave. > > This is a mind experiment and I agree to the conclusions, but it have > some implicit conditions in it making it worthy. For example, the > implicit condition is "there is no way for the weakest group to leave > for greener pastures". Generally speaking, there was no way to leave for greener pastures. Quoting Azar Gat end of page 4 and top of page 5: "As recently as the last tens of thousands of years, the small groups that crossed from Asia into North America propagated into hundreds of thousands and millions of people, even prior to the introduction of agriculture, filling up the Americas. Similarly, the small ?founder groups? that arrived in the Pacific islands during the last two millennia, in most cases probably no more than a few tens of people on each island, rapidly filled up their new habitats, increasing in numbers to thousands and tens of thousands. "These dramatic cases only demonstrate that as a rule, and contrary to the Rousseauite belief, our Palaeolithic ancestors had no empty spaces to move to. Normally, species quickly fill up their particular habitat and soon push against its boundaries." http://web.archive.org/web/20100530133845/http://cniss.wustl.edu/workshoppapers/gatpres1.pdf > Another condition is "one group is totally > genetically unrelated with the other". Generally the groups were related since humans practice exogamy. But mathematically this makes no difference in the analysis. > Another condition is "there are > no other threat to them able to overcome them after they weaken > themselves with a war". > > The last is more interesting. Hunter-gaters (mainly in Africa) have > lived in caves used also by hyena. At a time or another, hyenas were > able to take over the cave from humans or humans from the hyenas. > Finding show that many humans ended as hyenas snacks in these take-overs. Don't forget that when human groups fought, there was an excess of human population (for the resources available). But if you have a pointer to these findings, I would be very interested. Modern humans, even without guns, are more than a match for lions. > So, the hunter-gaters switch you talk about is problematic, because if > it switched at the wrong time it would have caused the extinction of > both parties. The winning side could be too weak to be able to defend > itself from hyenas, lions or other humans. As I have pointed out, the behavioral switch was under a great deal of evolutionary pressure to "get it right." > The preferred solutions for hunter-gaters groups in conflict for > resources was emigration to another place. see above. > Another solution was, like in Viking Times, setting war parties to raid > and sack some place far away, so a retaliation was improbable. Or hire > themselves to another stronger group in exchange of resources (like > Harald Hardrada did with the Bizantine before becoming King). This is *long* after the humans involved were no longer hunter-gatherers. snip >> Happens all the time. Zones of mixed religions such as Jews and >> Christians have peacefully existed for a long time. Then you get into >> bad economic conditions such as happened when Hitler came to power. > > The problem is Nazis was not Christians. They were atheists and > socialists. It doesn't matter what memes were invoked. Use the Rwanda Tutsi/Hutu as an example instead. snip >> Read what Azar Gat has to say about the Australian evidence. > > Maybe I'm not exposing my ideas well. > I'm not against the idea religion is not useful in war, just that > religion initially was useful to intra-group cooperation and only after > was used for extra-group conflicts. My argument is that wars came long before religions, and that the psychological mechanisms, turning up the gain on circulating xenophobic memes, is the origin of the human trait to have religions at all. I.e., religions are of the class of xenophobic memes, even if not obvious all the time. In unstressed groups it's not even obvious they are xenophobic memes, but put a little stress on the society and watch. For example, consider the religious right in the US. > Also I think Australia, Africa, Amazon, and other tropical setting are > not well suited to explain how war, cooperation and trust started and > evolved. > How do war happened in temperate and cold ecosystems in the Paleolithic > and Neolithic? What happened when humans were rare and were adapting to > a new hostile environment? Do the same strategies worked then as they > work now in Australia or Africa? Gat goes into the evidence that war and the reasons for wars were not much different from one ecosystem to another. > Why these populations stopped their evolution/progress and never > progressed up to the bow technology (and Tasmanians had not the > boomerang technology). Black Africans never get to Madagascar before the > Melanesians get there by chance. > > What is the limiting factor, the show stopper, preventing them from > advancing? Genetic, ecologic, geographical? I suspect that farming in northern temperate zones exerted a considerable genetic selection on the people who lived there. Beyond that you need to read the works of Gregory Clark. His book is good, but here is a place to start. http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/papers/Capitalism%20Genes.pdf snip > This will need a bit, to write it down, but I will try to articulate it > in a later post. Looking forward to it. Keith From tech101 at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 07:20:34 2012 From: tech101 at gmail.com (Adam A. Ford) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 17:20:34 +1000 Subject: [ExI] Contact Info for Kim Stanley Robinson Message-ID: We want to invite Kim Stanley Robinson to present at the up and coming Humanity+ @San Francisco conference (dec 1-2). The conference theme is 'Writing the Future'. Just wondering if anyone has KSR's contact email? or would be willing to pass on an invitation to him? I have seen Kim speak (about writing, terraforming mars, climate change etc), and he is great - he probably has lots to say about the Mars rover too. Kind regards, Adam A. Ford Humanity+ Global Board Member, Humanity+ @ San Francisco Co-Chair Humanity+ Australia, Humanity+ @ Melbourne Summit Chair Singularity Summit Australia Chair Mob: +61 421 979 977 | Email: tech101 at gmail.com Humanity+ @San Francisco 1-2 Dec 2012 * * Humanity+ | Singularity Summit Australia | Facebook| Twitter | Youtube "A new type of thinking is essential if mankind is to survive and move toward higher levels." ("Atomic Education Urged by Albert Einstein", New York Times, 25 May 1946) Please consider the environment before printing this email -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From kryonica at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 08:31:15 2012 From: kryonica at gmail.com (Kryonica) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 09:31:15 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The robot bees are coming In-Reply-To: <506A0EA5.3080408@aleph.se> References: <506A0EA5.3080408@aleph.se> Message-ID: <33B9D092-4058-4941-AEFD-B7961CA40AD7@gmail.com> I regularly have nightmares about insects and am enthusiastic about the idea that artificial creatures can be used one day to pollinate fields. It has been one of my lifelong dreams that insects might one day be replaced by robots to do their job. Sure, an alternative food source for birds - that I do like - must be found, but a world without cockroaches, mosquitoes, flies and wasps is one aspect of technoprogressive Eden. Last night I had a nightmare about a parasitic worm. It was big and vile. Hopefully such creatures will know the fate of the smallpox virus and one day exist only as DNA in some remote laboratory. Or as virtual monsters in MMORPG that one can easily kill with some magic weapon or spell. I know that Anders, who has a keen interest in insects and a nice collection of beetles, will disagree. On 1 Oct 2012, at 22:44, Anders Sandberg wrote: > Nicely complements the Harvard RoboBee project, which is more on the robotics side: http://robobees.seas.harvard.edu/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From protokol2020 at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 09:13:28 2012 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 11:13:28 +0200 Subject: [ExI] The robot bees are coming In-Reply-To: <33B9D092-4058-4941-AEFD-B7961CA40AD7@gmail.com> References: <506A0EA5.3080408@aleph.se> <33B9D092-4058-4941-AEFD-B7961CA40AD7@gmail.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 2, 2012 at 10:31 AM, Kryonica wrote: > I regularly have nightmares about insects and am enthusiastic about the > idea that artificial creatures can be used one day to pollinate fields. It > has been one of my lifelong dreams that insects might one day be replaced > by robots to do their job. Sure, an alternative food source for birds - > that I do like - must be found, but a world without cockroaches, > mosquitoes, flies and wasps is one aspect of technoprogressive Eden. Last > night I had a nightmare about a parasitic worm. It was big and vile. > Hopefully such creatures will know the fate of the smallpox virus and one > day exist only as DNA in some remote laboratory. Or as virtual monsters in > MMORPG that one can easily kill with some magic weapon or spell. > > I know that Anders, who has a keen interest in insects and a nice > collection of beetles, will disagree. > > On 1 Oct 2012, at 22:44, Anders Sandberg wrote: > > Nicely complements the Harvard RoboBee project, which is more on the > robotics side: http://robobees.seas.harvard.edu/ > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > It is difficult and deep question, what species are to be wiped out. Some would argue that none of them. But when I've asked one of those, what to do with a parasitic worm which lives in people's eyes and drives them blind, he said something I didn't understand. Some rubbish how we shouldn't play the almighty. What would you do with the African wild dogs, which eat an antelope alive? I think, the whole biology needs a deep reconstruction. Very, very deep. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From charlie.stross at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 10:42:29 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 11:42:29 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Apocalypse Codex (Was: Religions) In-Reply-To: <024701cda026$e7bc2140$b73463c0$@att.net> References: <42AF0CF9-F244-46C1-A1C1-877452FDDF39@gmail.com> <5069FCA3.2080504@aleph.se> <024701cda026$e7bc2140$b73463c0$@att.net> Message-ID: <0BDA7208-1494-47B7-AC68-C6DBB25B4696@gmail.com> On 1 Oct 2012, at 23:48, spike wrote: > >> ... On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg > Subject: Re: [ExI] Apocalypse Codex (Was: Religions) > > On 01/10/2012 21:10, Charlie Stross wrote: >>> BTDT. Alas, most Xtian fundies don't read the kind of fiction I write. > ... > >> ...Incidentally, while I am in fanboy mode, I should report that it was the > paragraph on Brains' security clearance in The Atrocity Archives that gave > me a proper rationale to come out of the closet. It made complete sense. -- > Anders Sandberg, > > > > Intriguing, inquiring minds want to know. Charlie would you be opposed to > quoting that paragraph? That'd be fair usage, in my view. (My publishers might disagree, but they don't hang out here :) -- Charlie From pharos at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 12:40:55 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 13:40:55 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Tenfold increase in PubMed scientific research papers retracted for fraud Message-ID: Tenfold increase in scientific research papers retracted for fraud Study of 2,047 papers on PubMed finds that two-thirds of retracted papers were down to scientific misconduct, not error Alok Jha, science correspondent The Guardian, Monday 1 October 2012 20.15 BST Quote: The proportion of scientific research that is retracted due to fraud has increased tenfold since 1975, according to the most comprehensive analysis yet of how research papers go wrong. The study, published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), found that more than two-thirds of the biomedical and life sciences papers that have been retracted from the scientific record are due to misconduct by researchers, rather than error. The results add weight to recent concerns that scientific misconduct is on the rise and that fraud increasingly affects fields that underpin many areas of public concern, such as medicine and healthcare. Casadevall said the pressures to commit fraud came from many sources - not least the competition for scarce funding for research. In addition, the disproportionate rewards given to scientists who publish in high-impact journals mean that some may succumb to the temptation of making their results seem more impressive than they actually are. -------------- So new research papers (especially in biomedical science) should be viewed with some caution, until the results are corroborated by independent researchers. BillK From painlord2k at libero.it Tue Oct 2 14:02:47 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Tue, 02 Oct 2012 16:02:47 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Reason for religions, was riots In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <506AF407.9020209@libero.it> Il 02/10/2012 08:44, Keith Henson ha scritto: > On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 4:06 PM, Mirco Romanato wrote: >> This is a mind experiment and I agree to the conclusions, but it have >> some implicit conditions in it making it worthy. For example, the >> implicit condition is "there is no way for the weakest group to leave >> for greener pastures". > Generally speaking, there was no way to leave for greener pastures. > Quoting Azar Gat end of page 4 and top of page 5: > > "As recently as the last tens of thousands of years, the small groups > that crossed from Asia into North America propagated into hundreds of > thousands and millions of people, even prior to the introduction of > agriculture, filling up the Americas. Similarly, the small ?founder > groups? that arrived in the Pacific islands during the last two > millennia, in most cases probably no more than a few tens of people on > each island, rapidly filled up their new habitats, increasing in > numbers to thousands and tens of thousands. The phrase of Gat is a bit imprecise: the migration in America happened between 20 to 12 KY ago. Recent research support the latter more than the former. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beringia#Human_habitation It is interesting, cave hyenas disappearance is linked to the ability of humans to move from Siberia to Alaska. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cave_hyena#Interactions_with_hominids Hyena, BTW, are very social and intelligent animals, in some test they are better than chimpanzee at problem solving, collaborating and helping young to solve a problem they solved. I would not be happy to give them the chance of an upper hand battling other humans. I would ally with other humans to battle them, but if chimpanzee are an example, early humans could have problems cooperating. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/05/0503_050305_neanderthal.html "We have this idea that once humans became reasonably successful as hunters that they walked with impunity on the landscape, and that's just not so," Trinkaus said. "I'm not saying they were having fights at the mouths of caves with the hyenas, but I'm sure there were plenty of times when the hyenas came and, not being stupid, the Neandertals said 'see ya later, guys.'" > "These dramatic cases only demonstrate that as a rule, and contrary to > the Rousseauite belief, our Palaeolithic ancestors had no empty spaces > to move to. Normally, species quickly fill up their particular habitat > and soon push against its boundaries." Yes, but we now see only the push against other humans. In the past the push could be against other species. Just cave dwelling humans on a slope could be forced to push out surplus population to dwell in prairies (against hyenas) just few miles away. The choice would be to battle other humans, hyenas or wolves. Push, push, push, someone started to find a way to survive there (and climate changing helped a lot). >> The last is more interesting. Hunter-gaters (mainly in Africa) have >> lived in caves used also by hyena. At a time or another, hyenas were >> able to take over the cave from humans or humans from the hyenas. >> Finding show that many humans ended as hyenas snacks in these take-overs. > Don't forget that when human groups fought, there was an excess of > human population (for the resources available). This is true, but what you start from is not the same you arrive with. In WW2 the Germans started with an excess of people and lost 5% of the people (and not randomly distributed; mainly adults and young able to be soldiers). The same is true with our ancestors, if they started a war, the outcome could be (often) the depleting of good males hunters/warriors. Could be the development of agriculture a backup strategy of a population with an excess of women and not enough hunters? We know sites with more resources were sought off and communities would fight to control them. So fighting would be more frequent in resources rich sites. So male hunters scarcity would be more frequent. And women would need to find a different way to obtain food. > But if you have a pointer to these findings, I would be very > interested. Modern humans, even without guns, are more than a match > for lions. Male lions are built to kill hyenas but female lions are not big enough to intimidate a pack of hyenas. Often the hyenas hunt a prey and the male lion intimidate them, but often the female lions hunt a prey and the hyenas intimidate them. Modern humans, in my opinion, are much more collaborative than early humans or hominids. This would made a enormous difference at the time. http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2008/08/did-intelligenc.html "It was not possible for early humans to consume a large amount of meat until fire was controlled and cooking was possible. Sussman points out that the first tools didn't appear until two million years ago. And there wasn't good evidence of fire until after 800,000 years ago. "In fact, some archaeologists and paleontologists don't think we had a modern, systematic method of hunting until as recently as 60,000 years ago," he says." Approximately 6 percent to 10 percent of early humans were preyed upon according to evidence that includes teeth marks on bones, talon marks on skulls and holes in a fossil cranium into which sabertooth cat fangs fit, says Sussman. The predation rate on savannah antelope and certain ground-living monkeys today is around 6 percent to 10 percent as well. Sussman and Hart provide evidence that many of our modern human traits, including those of cooperation and socialization, developed as a result of being a prey species and the early human's ability to out-smart the predators. These traits did not result from trying to hunt for prey or kill our competitors, says Sussman. "One of the main defenses against predators by animals without physical defenses is living in groups," says Sussman. "In fact, all diurnal primates (those active during the day) live in permanent social groups. Most ecologists agree that predation pressure is one of the major adaptive reasons for this group-living. In this way there are more eyes and ears to locate the predators and more individuals to mob them if attacked or to confuse them by scattering. There are a number of reasons that living in groups is beneficial for animals that otherwise would be very prone to being preyed upon." > As I have pointed out, the behavioral switch was under a great deal of > evolutionary pressure to "get it right." My opinion is this "switch" is only apparent. Cooperation allowed larger groups and languages allowed them to become even bigger. Then come the problem of exploiters inside these larger groups preventing them from becoming larger and more efficient. The research about cooperation and trust from Axelrod and other show the ability to grow bigger groups needed the evolution of a "new type" of human, the "altruistic punisher". At first willing to punish the exploiters and then willing to exploit the exploiters and the individuals not participating in the punishment (just say the closest relatives of the punished are more probable to not be happy to punish him for transgression against more far relatives). The "go at war" switch is, IMO, a consequence of "acts of exploiting" from a group against another. Just say group A is resource strapped and go hunting/gathering in the territories of Group B. Group B could see this as an "exploit" against itself and enter in punishing mode (sometimes a genocidal punishing mode). http://www.umass.edu/preferen/A%20Cooperative%20Species/ACS%20Ch%2013%20Human%20Cooperation%20and%20its%20Evolution.pdf Your "war mode switch" is, IMO, problematic because it require a cut off of cooperating between humans and I believe cooperation is instinctive in humans. So it is difficult to have a clear cut off (cooperation in group and war mode off group). If the "war mode" arise from a perceived exploitation from another group it would be a natural extension of our ancestors evolution of "altruistic punisher" traits. I would add that a "war mode" could be used by exploiters as a way to get rid of in group competitors. They push for a war against the other group not only to take their resources but to get rid of an excess of far relatives inside the group. In the same way, to prevent strife inside the group, a minority could leave the main group and enter the territory of another group (better to combat someone else than your relatives). In this way, war arise from cooperation and the way it is enforced inside a group, perception errors and failure to detect exploitations or just the inability to give up perceived personal . > My argument is that wars came long before religions, and that the > psychological mechanisms, turning up the gain on circulating > xenophobic memes, is the origin of the human trait to have religions > at all. I.e., religions are of the class of xenophobic memes, even if > not obvious all the time. In unstressed groups it's not even obvious > they are xenophobic memes, but put a little stress on the society and > watch. For example, consider the religious right in the US. My opinion is we developed social interactions in larger groups before becoming humans and continued in this path. With the enlarging of the groups modes to enhancing cooperation (language, read/writing) were developed with modes to stamp out exploitation. Religion start as a side effect of stamping out exploitation and facilitating cooperation. ?What is spe?cial about hu?mans is the will?ing?ness to be spite?ful to force coop?era?t?ion,? Mar?lowe and col?leagues con?clud?ed. Religions are useful because give a memetic (moral) reason to be really evil with people perceived to be exploiters. And exploiters are often relegated out-group. Any animal whatever, endowed with well-marked social instincts, the parental and filial affections being here included, would inevitably acquire a moral sense or conscience, as soon as its intellectual powers had become as well developed, or nearly as well developed, as in man. Charles Darwin, The Descent of Man (1998[1873]) pp. 71?72. >> What is the limiting factor, the show stopper, preventing them from >> advancing? Genetic, ecologic, geographical? > I suspect that farming in northern temperate zones exerted a > considerable genetic selection on the people who lived there. Beyond > that you need to read the works of Gregory Clark. His book is good, > but here is a place to start. > http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/papers/Capitalism%20Genes.pdf I read this a few years ago. It was very interesting. Equally interesting reading was the theory of Psychohistory of deMause: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory if it true that early ways of childrearing caused a greater number of psychosis, it is understandable people heard voices and see things not there and evolved explanations for it. Evolution and selections would prefer the people hearing voices telling them the right things at the right times (not always the good things). Mirco From spike66 at att.net Tue Oct 2 13:53:31 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 06:53:31 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The robot bees are coming In-Reply-To: <33B9D092-4058-4941-AEFD-B7961CA40AD7@gmail.com> References: <506A0EA5.3080408@aleph.se> <33B9D092-4058-4941-AEFD-B7961CA40AD7@gmail.com> Message-ID: <033401cda0a5$4f5d1240$ee1736c0$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Kryonica Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2012 1:31 AM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] The robot bees are coming >.I regularly have nightmares about insects and am enthusiastic about the idea that artificial creatures can be used one day to pollinate fields. It has been one of my lifelong dreams that insects might one day be replaced by robots to do their job. Sure, an alternative food source for birds - that I do like - must be found, but a world without cockroaches, mosquitoes, flies and wasps is one aspect of technoprogressive Eden. Last night I had a nightmare about a parasitic worm. It was big and vile. Hopefully such creatures will know the fate of the smallpox virus and one day exist only as DNA in some remote laboratory. Or as virtual monsters in MMORPG that one can easily kill with some magic weapon or spell. Kryonica, for the purpose of pollinating crops, the robots nature gave us are hard to beat. They are thorough, efficient, self-reproducing, they even supply us with honey. An alternative would be the development of technology that would help you and fellow sufferers of the dread of insects. Suggest finding a cooperative beekeeper, suit up so that the bees cannot get you, not even one. Then go out with her and take a look inside a beehive. Once you get used to having bees around everywhere, you can walk right up to a commercial beehive in your street clothes, with no ill effects. The bees will not rush out and sting you. Mosquitos, ja I am with you on that. I see no socially redeeming qualities in those needlenose bastards. But bees are cool. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 13:19:28 2012 From: cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com (Henrique Moraes Machado) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 10:19:28 -0300 Subject: [ExI] RES: The robot bees are coming In-Reply-To: <33B9D092-4058-4941-AEFD-B7961CA40AD7@gmail.com> References: <506A0EA5.3080408@aleph.se> <33B9D092-4058-4941-AEFD-B7961CA40AD7@gmail.com> Message-ID: <005901cda0a0$8ec81060$ac583120$@gmail.com> >I regularly have nightmares about insects and am enthusiastic about the idea that artificial creatures can be used one day to pollinate fields. ?It has been one of my lifelong dreams that insects might one day be replaced by robots to do their job. So, basically you're saying that you don't hate all insects. Only those that fly and those that doesn't. From spike66 at att.net Tue Oct 2 14:29:10 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 07:29:10 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Reason for religions, was riots In-Reply-To: <506AF407.9020209@libero.it> References: <506AF407.9020209@libero.it> Message-ID: <036b01cda0aa$49ff6050$ddfe20f0$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Mirco Romanato ... http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/05/0503_050305_neanderthal.html >... Trinkaus said. "I'm not saying they were having fights at the mouths of caves with the hyenas, but I'm sure there were plenty of times when the hyenas came and, not being stupid, the Neandertals said 'see ya later, guys.'" I would suggest to the contrary. If we try to imagine the first use of tools in humans, we can imagine it being hurling rocks, not at prey but at hyenas. This would be effective if a pack of hyenas lived in a cave, which a group of humans wanted to occupy. One could imagine how the good old opposable thumb would allow three or four sturdy lads to wield clubs, completely as defense weapons, back with a group perhaps thirty meters away, while a group of specialists hurled rocks at emerging hyenas at the mouth of the cave. They would occasionally bean one of the toothy sons a bitches, but even if they didn't, the stones would accumulate at the mouth of the cave in such a way that the hyenas could not clear them away without risk of getting conked by some wannabe caveman. Eventually the hyenas would need to abandon the site, at which time opposable-thumb-boy gets all his ammo back. So I contra-propose to Trinkaus that early humans did get into fights with hyenas at the mouths of caves. This could explain how technology was jump started, for this notion would confer an advantage on those humans who could throw the straightest and hardest, as well as those who could plan ahead, make a sack of some sort, go collect a pile of rocks, store them at the site until you could get an arsenal together, then go get the sturdy lads, pump them with some kind of proto-religion memes about how they will be rewarded in some afterlife if you lose the upcoming battle in such a way that the hyenas tear you a new asshole. Then let the fights begin. spike From rtomek at ceti.pl Tue Oct 2 15:06:57 2012 From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 17:06:57 +0200 (CEST) Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, 1 Oct 2012, Tomasz Rola wrote: > On Mon, 1 Oct 2012, Keith Henson wrote: > > [...] > > Last night I was looking at a story I wrote while in jail and really > > bent out of shape at cults, religions and governments. It is non PC > > to the max and might cause riots or worse if it got out. > > Wow. Maybe you should let it out. Choose your pen name carefully and go. > Wouldn't worry about riots, some folks burned Mark Twain's books (AFAIK > even in US) so you would at least be in a good company. (ohcrap ohcrap mode on) But I did not mean you would feel comfy in a company of book-burning useful idiots. Oh crap :-). Sorry if what I wrote was to ambiguous to read correctly. (ohcrap ohcrap mode off) Regards, Tomasz Rola -- ** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature. ** ** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home ** ** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened... ** ** ** ** Tomasz Rola mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com ** From sparge at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 14:38:21 2012 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 10:38:21 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The robot bees are coming In-Reply-To: <033401cda0a5$4f5d1240$ee1736c0$@att.net> References: <506A0EA5.3080408@aleph.se> <33B9D092-4058-4941-AEFD-B7961CA40AD7@gmail.com> <033401cda0a5$4f5d1240$ee1736c0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 2, 2012 at 9:53 AM, spike wrote: > Once you get used to having bees around everywhere, you can walk right up > to a commercial beehive in your street clothes, with no ill effects. The > bees will not rush out and sting you. As a beekeeper I have to add a caveat to this. Once you're comfortable with bees, and provided you're not allergic to bee stings, you can approach hives and open them up, take them apart, etc., without a suit. But there are times when even an experienced beekeeper won't do that--e.g., late summer when bees are naturally protective of their honey stores. Also, there's a wide range of aggressiveness from colony to colony--some are like a Labrador retriever that'll let kids yank it's ears, others will let you know right off the bat that you're not welcome. And even commercial hives can get some African blood...making them seriously dangerous even to experienced keepers without bee allergies. At a minimum, one should always wear at least a hood and have an epi-pen when working with bees. As far as robobees are concerned...we're so far from being able to produce a via bee replacement that it's not even funny. A typical colony has ~50k bees. And they self reproduce and self fuel. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 16:12:27 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 12:12:27 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <22CD0B23-AD50-4119-8941-1C8BFE954472@me.com> <5065D13E.50101@libero.it> <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 10:16 PM, Mike Dougherty wrote: >> So you think the USA is trying to "subdue the Middle East" for good and >> noble reasons . >> > >> > > Hell no; for purely selfish and ignoble reasons. > Good, your response was clear and unambiguous, then logically you must believe in one of 2 things: 1) Wanting Western Civilization to continue is purely selfish and ignoble. 2) Eliminating the oil from the Middle East will not cause the fall of Western Civilization, so the reason it tries so hard to "subdue the Middle East" remains a mystery. So which do you believe? I hope you can give another clear and unambiguous answer. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rtomek at ceti.pl Tue Oct 2 17:13:28 2012 From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 19:13:28 +0200 (CEST) Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, 1 Oct 2012, Keith Henson wrote: [...] > > Also, much here > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaVeyan_Satanism#The_Nine_Satanic_Statements > maps nicely to the Extropian view of the world. Yes, very interesting. I would expect someone to write here something like "Ja, I have two horned masks in a closet and I wear them one on top of another on various meetings" anytime now :-P . > >> > Anyway, killing random people is cowardish and unjust in my opinion. > > Regardless of how you or I feel about it, it accomplishes the goal of > getting the population back in line with the resources. Or at least > it did back in the stone age. Today wars can destroy the > infrastructure that allows large populations to exist. Right, good reason to keep an eye on internet worms. > >> Try to Google "I was made victorious with terror" (it will help you > >> auto-completing the phrase ) and you will find some interesting things > >> about Mormonism. > > snip > > > For what I know, we have our own community of Mormons here in Poland, and > > so far I have no reason to doubt their good will, law abiding or > > patriotism. > > Put a population under stress and you will get similar behavior, often > using religious memes to justify the behavior. Rwanda is a great > example, but if you want one involving Mormons, try > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Meadows_massacre Actually, if I am right in reading Aesopian language of this thread, we say Mormons but we think Surrealists, or maybe Pre-Raphaelites. Or Dadaists. Yeah, Dadaists is the word. > "Today historians attribute the massacre to a combination of factors > including both war hysteria and strident Mormon teachings. Scholars > still debate whether senior Mormon leadership, including Brigham > Young, directly instigated the massacre or if responsibility lies with > the local leaders of southern Utah." Still, Young was good enough to name University after him. What a great lesson to someone like me. Uh-hum did I suggest I could become a massacre instigator? Craps. Well, ok, I could. Why not, especially if they were not going to judge me. > > Also, since they are humans, I expect majority of them to be like > > other humans I know, trying to raise their families, have children and > > live long enough to see them having their own families and children. > > Of course. However, until very recently, raising families > successfully resulted in population growth. On a relatively constant > resource base this eventually resulted in the population exceeding the > capacity of the resource base to provide for them. So eventually, > this kind of behavior sowed the seeds of a resource crisis and humans > are (I claim) wired up to respond to a resource crisis by going to > war. In the stone age, war was always effective in getting the > population back in line with the resources, so people could go back to > the business of raising children and set up the conditions for war > again. (Where have all the flowers gone?) You are not the only one claiming we are wired so. I wish we behaved better or at least wiser. And nowadays, when we start throwing stones, the clouds will go quite high. On the other hand, seems like we are quickly developing in the area where stones are equally lethal without nasty side effects. So, soon there will be little or no barriers to start using them. > > This requires > > that they support idea of peace lasting at least umpteen years (to raise > > children) at a very minimum. I expect them to be the majority of Mormons, > > simply because those who disregard needs of their families in favour of > > battling the world are worsening prospects of their children and in this > > way eradicate themselves. Or rather, their genes. > > If you run through the math, there are conditions where war is the > better choice for genes. If it was not, our traits for war would > never have evolved. (Obviously.) > > Simple model, drought situation where half of two bands will die of > starvation, or they can fight. All the loser adults are killed. For > similar sized bands, consider the winner to be random. For the > adults, there is no advantage to going to war. But the human > propensity to take the young women of the losers as wives or extra > wives limits the downside from the gene's viewpoint. So war is > better, _substantially_ better than the alternative in some > circumstances. This leads to several depressing consequences due to > individuals and their genes being in conflict. > > Fighting, when there is no need to fight, is (from the gene's > viewpoint) highly punishing, i.e., human genes have been both selected > to fight under some conditions and selected not to fight under other > conditions. And because the consequences are so dire, the mechanism > to detect when it is to the gene's advantage to fight has also been > under intense selection. Ok, let's say that whenever environment/situation forces us into living conditions of some era, our behaviours revert to behaviours typical of that era. > This model does let us predict that China will not start wars as long > as their income per capita prospects are looking good. That doesn't > mean they will not fight a war because they can be attacked. Right. However, for some time at least, their technological advances are not allowing them for attacking anybody. Like, they have a prototype 5 gen fighter but fit it with 30-years old Soviet engine (Russians deny them modernised designs of that engine, afraid Chinese will clone and sell it like they already did). Perhaps they will try to find a deal in Europe (Europe needs money, BTW is it possible to blame banksters for rise of Chinese military power?). If not, they will have to develop it on their own, but I wonder how long will it take. Before they are done, they are limited to various forms of "pressure" on their neighbours. I might have simplified description but not very much, I think. > There are lots of other obvious consequences for this model and we > could calibrate it from historical events. Well, somebody very sure may be doing this. "We" could too, but we may have a problem with getting real numbers for a model and we might be preconditioned to give attention to some factors but not to others (just like Axis military planners seemed to forget about plain numbers not working in their favour, and worse, they have fixated themselves on building grandiose designs like the Mouse tank or Yamato class battleships). An interesting starting point could be Rome Club's models from "Limits to growth" and "Beyound the limits", even though they have been criticised by some. Regards, Tomasz Rola -- ** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature. ** ** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home ** ** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened... ** ** ** ** Tomasz Rola mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com ** From alfio.puglisi at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 17:30:10 2012 From: alfio.puglisi at gmail.com (Alfio Puglisi) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 19:30:10 +0200 Subject: [ExI] deep space again, was: RE: riots again In-Reply-To: <01e201cda004$b9702420$2c506c60$@att.net> References: <010f01cd9f95$1d26d4c0$57747e40$@att.net> <01e201cda004$b9702420$2c506c60$@att.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 8:44 PM, spike wrote: > ** ** > > ** ** > > *From:* extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto: > extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On Behalf Of *Alfio Puglisi > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] deep space again, was: RE: riots again**** > > ** ** > > On Mon, Oct 1, 2012 at 7:25 AM, spike wrote:**** > > > ? > > > Here's the photo: > > > http://www.space.com/17755-farthest-universe-view-hubble-space-telescope.htm > > >?Doesn't this photo make the Fermi paradox even more problematic? Given > the ginormous number of stars out there, and given that, once you achieve > interstellar capability, extragalactic adventure is not that far away (i.e. > the distance to Andromeda is only 20x the diameter of our Milky Way, and > what's an order of magnitude between friends?), why don't we see even a > damned single photon out there that even remotely smells artificial? The > more we know about the cosmos, the more puzzling this problem becomes?Alfio > > > > Alfio, how many postcards have you written to Aboriginal pen pals in the > Australian outback? Neither have I. During Extro5, I kept starting one, > but more interesting immediately adjacent conversations kept distracting > me, and furthermore I kept being overwhelmed by the fact that I don?t know > where to send the card, I don?t know their language, I don?t know their > customs, I have no clue how to even start to explain to them the very > basics they must understand to even vaguely grok what it was we were doing > there. Even I only vaguely grok what we were doing there, with decades of > preparation. The Australian aboriginals have never received a single > postcard from me, even though the cost to send one would be minimal. > > But even someone who has always lived in the Australian desert, or in the middle of the Amazon rainforest, can see planes in the sky and boats in the water, and would recognize a postcard for something out of the ordinary. The problem is not only radio silence, but also the lack of artifacts or any sign that, at the stellar scale and over, things do not simply follow the laws of entropy. A telltale sign of life on Earth is chemical disequilibrium: something is actively keeping the atmosphere out of balance, filling it with oxygen. Skyscrapers and airplanes are the same: someone is working to hold them up, and they would revert to their "natural" state quite readily if the upkeeping ceased. It seems quite obvious that, for some reason, technology does not reach megascale proportions. I don't know, maybe when you get to the scale at which self-gravity is significant, it might be hard to go on. Or the intervention is subtle enough that what we think is an untouched landscape is in fact a byproduct of it. Or maybe there's no general need for such wide scale activity, for reasons we still have to discover. Who knows. Alfio -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 17:33:17 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 19:33:17 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <5069E602.8040600@libero.it> References: <00b601cd94f2$722ed240$568c76c0$@att.net> <936C9B9D-7312-4498-9177-AD0D55652949@gmail.com> <009901cd9a63$2ef04330$8cd0c990$@att.net> <00c401cd9a71$9b90ea40$d2b2bec0$@att.net> <654A98FC-0ED4-4B30-969D-46ECF6DC90A4@gmail.com> <02f301cd9cb7$4820a6a0$d861f3e0$@att.net> <5069E602.8040600@libero.it> Message-ID: On 1 October 2012 20:50, Mirco Romanato wrote: > Il 01/10/2012 18:55, Stefano Vaj ha scritto: > > Indeed. Heck, for Hiroshima bombing US media did not refrain to >> provide stuff to the general public, even though the mid-term >> consequences were more horrifying than Allied or German bombing in >> Europe during WWII. >> > > What mid-term consequences? > Anyway, the near-term consequences of the A-bombs used was to spare > two-millions lives of US soldiers AND a greater number of Japanese lives. > Without A-bombs Japan would not surrender, the Japan occupied > territories would continue for months to be occupied, with much more > people dead by famine or killed. The Soviets would enter in the war > against Japan and occupy a large part of East Asia. I was not debating whether using A-bombs or V2 was a strategically (or morally) good idea or not. Just saying that the damages of bombing are usually spectacular enought for the media to be interested. What part of this is not clear? > "for tumult and oppression are worse than slaughter" by Yusuf Ali > or > "The sin of disbelief in God is greater than committing murder." by Sarwar > or > "Though killing is bad, creating mischief is worse than killing." > or > "for temptation to idolatry is more grievous than slaughter" > or > "for civil discord is worse than carnage" > I always took it as an emphatic "even worse", the slaughter of the faithful being more than enough to justify rioting in itself for old-time muslims. :-) Well, they are gone. There are any Arab Nationalist (read Arab National > Socialists) left in the Middle East? Syria is the left-over and it is not > sure it will last long. > True. Even though you put together the true facts that they cared for independence (hey, George Washington also did!) and were not too enthusiastic about local feodalism or neo-colonial capitalism in a single expression which for historical reasons has some derogatory connotations for many of us... :-) -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Tue Oct 2 20:30:09 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Tue, 02 Oct 2012 22:30:09 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Reason for religions, was riots In-Reply-To: <036b01cda0aa$49ff6050$ddfe20f0$@att.net> References: <506AF407.9020209@libero.it> <036b01cda0aa$49ff6050$ddfe20f0$@att.net> Message-ID: <506B4ED1.20907@libero.it> Il 02/10/2012 16:29, spike ha scritto: > >> ... On Behalf Of Mirco Romanato > ... > > http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/05/0503_050305_neanderthal.html > >> ... Trinkaus said. "I'm not saying they were having fights at the mouths of > caves with the hyenas, but I'm sure there were plenty of times when the > hyenas came and, not being stupid, the Neandertals said 'see ya later, > guys.'" > I would suggest to the contrary. If we try to imagine the first use of > tools in humans, we can imagine it being hurling rocks, not at prey but at > hyenas. Spike, Cave Hyenas were 100 Kg beasts, social, collaborative, maybe as smart as humans at the time and probably as much spiteful as them. From what I remember, canines are able to jogging as much as humans, horses and wolf/dogs, so there is no way humans could outrun them like they could do with lions, other felines, bison, antelopes, etc. I would not pick a fight with them (and probably them would not pick a fight with humans) unless I have at least double warriors than them. And I would want a very good reason for doing so. > This would be effective if a pack of hyenas lived in a cave, which > a group of humans wanted to occupy. One could imagine how the good old > opposable thumb would allow three or four sturdy lads to wield clubs, > completely as defense weapons, back with a group perhaps thirty meters away, > while a group of specialists hurled rocks at emerging hyenas at the mouth of > the cave. They would occasionally bean one of the toothy sons a bitches, > but even if they didn't, the stones would accumulate at the mouth of the > cave in such a way that the hyenas could not clear them away without risk of > getting conked by some wannabe caveman. Eventually the hyenas would need to > abandon the site, at which time opposable-thumb-boy gets all his ammo back. The problem is when thirty cave hyenas (every one weighting double than the thumbs-boys, faster than them, as much as enduring and equipped with sharp teeth and sharp minds) come out of the cave and charge in an organized way. > So I contra-propose to Trinkaus that early humans did get into fights with > hyenas at the mouths of caves. If they were three at one and the place was very resource rich, maybe. > This could explain how technology was jump > started, for this notion would confer an advantage on those humans who could > throw the straightest and hardest, as well as those who could plan ahead, > make a sack of some sort, go collect a pile of rocks, store them at the site > until you could get an arsenal together, then go get the sturdy lads, pump > them with some kind of proto-religion memes about how they will be rewarded > in some afterlife if you lose the upcoming battle in such a way that the > hyenas tear you a new asshole. Then let the fights begin. I have some doubts. The stuff about afterlife is too complicated for primitive humans. Hell, Jews had not concept for soul (or devil) until they came back from Babylon with Zoroastrian memes. God rewarded them with physical punishments when they got out of line. For example, the rape of Dinah, daughter of Jacob is from some linked to the fact Jacob forgot to build an altar to god when he returned home twenty years after he promised to do so. After he run to built it. Mirco From anders at aleph.se Tue Oct 2 20:32:03 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Tue, 02 Oct 2012 21:32:03 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The robot bees are coming In-Reply-To: <33B9D092-4058-4941-AEFD-B7961CA40AD7@gmail.com> References: <506A0EA5.3080408@aleph.se> <33B9D092-4058-4941-AEFD-B7961CA40AD7@gmail.com> Message-ID: <506B4F43.4050904@aleph.se> On 02/10/2012 09:31, Kryonica wrote: > I know that Anders, who has a keen interest in insects and a nice > collection of beetles, will disagree. Of course. I agree that the style of insects is not for everyone. I do have my favorites mainly in coleoptera, while regarding most of hymenoptera as annoying and diptera as disgusting. There is a biophobia among modern people: we mostly live in fairly sterile environments where any species not added by ourselves is seen as a sign of filth, decadence or invasion. This is a hopeless struggle: there is almost certainly an arthropod within a meter of you at this very moment. It also cuts us off from our environment. Rather than aiming for perfect sterility we should turn our world into a garden, an ecosystem dominated by the functions we like and minimizing the ones we loathe. This is for example why I encourage spiders in my home: they catch the insects I don't want around. After reading the Apocalypse Codex I get very amused every time I meet an isopod in my bathroom. I have tried singing psalms at them, but they run away - they clearly have musical taste :-) Robot insects of course have a place here. We need them as bellwethers and mobile sensors, telling us what the small world is up to and allowing us to influence it. But I can totally see a role for cyborg insects (like those fun beetles, roaches and moths with chils) or biotech insects (I want to make a new beetle species! There are not enough of them!) -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From painlord2k at libero.it Tue Oct 2 21:22:40 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Tue, 02 Oct 2012 23:22:40 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: References: <019601cd9ff6$34020050$9c0600f0$@att.net> <713C1AB2-FEC9-4D0C-93E7-A144754BD2E2@gmail.com> <5069FEC3.1030901@aleph.se> Message-ID: <506B5B20.100@libero.it> Il 01/10/2012 22:58, Charlie Stross ha scritto: > Yeah. I suspect many first-gen artificial species will be > conditioned/engineered to view their creators as gods. Could be a bit > of a shock when they realize that they aren't ... This reference is obligatory: Weyun - Damar exchange about superstition (Star Trek Deep Space 9: The First Battle of Chin'Toka): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQKzZU0YViE&feature=player_detailpage#t=143s If they are engineered to believe their creator(s) is God, they will believe it anyway. It is a delusion, it is above rational arguments, proof or whatever. Mirco From msd001 at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 21:30:54 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 17:30:54 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <22CD0B23-AD50-4119-8941-1C8BFE954472@me.com> <5065D13E.50101@libero.it> <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 2, 2012 at 12:12 PM, John Clark wrote: > 1) Wanting Western Civilization to continue is purely selfish and ignoble. > > 2) Eliminating the oil from the Middle East will not cause the fall of > Western Civilization, so the reason it tries so hard to "subdue the Middle > East" remains a mystery. > > So which do you believe? I hope you can give another clear and unambiguous > answer. 3) I refuse to be pinned by either #1 or #2. I'll try to remain clear. Wanting Western Civilization to continue is selfish, so what? I'm a product of western civilization. If I was a product of any other civilization I might feel that those western civilization people have too much stuff and it isn't fair and that'd probably suck for me. I'll be honest, I don't care all that much. It's easier to talk about "humanitarian" philosophy when every other basic (and not-so-basic) needs are fulfilled. I am somewhat confused by the "not" in #2. I believe no oil would force Western Civilization to scale back from the level to which we have all become accustomed. If that's a "fall" then ... i agree? But even a reduced level of excess would still be recognized as "western civilization" compared to the alternative ideology. So No, it's not a "fall" - just a shitty phase of reduced resource availability for the likes of me. The wealthy will still be orders of magnitude more wealthy than me and the politicians and lawyers will ensure that it remains that way. That's one of the hallmarks of western civilization is, isn't it? I don't think it's much of a mystery why we'd like those possessing alternate ideology to be "subdued" - they have what we want and they don't want to give it to us. I don't think this strategy is isolated to Western civilization as much as part of the human condition. Sorry to be so blunt about it, but we're not so far from animals that our nature can be denied. (or denied for very long) From msd001 at gmail.com Tue Oct 2 21:33:17 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 17:33:17 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The robot bees are coming In-Reply-To: <033401cda0a5$4f5d1240$ee1736c0$@att.net> References: <506A0EA5.3080408@aleph.se> <33B9D092-4058-4941-AEFD-B7961CA40AD7@gmail.com> <033401cda0a5$4f5d1240$ee1736c0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 2, 2012 at 9:53 AM, spike wrote: > Mosquitos, ja I am with you on that. I see no socially redeeming qualities > in those needlenose bastards. But bees are cool. I thought you had figured out how to spread blood-born DNA via mosquito vector? Surely that serves some purpose... Oh wait, you said socially redeeming. yeah, idk. From nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk Tue Oct 2 22:00:24 2012 From: nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk (Tom Nowell) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 23:00:24 +0100 (BST) Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1349215224.5355.YahooMailClassic@web132106.mail.ird.yahoo.com> On 01/10/2012 21:05, Charlie Stross wrote: > You seem to have missed "the human concept of? "god" is a cognitive processing error -- we observe random events and are prone to ascribe them to purposeful behaviour, and our theory of mine then back-projects a conscious intelligence behind it". > > In other words, *not* "there is no God" but "the concept of God is a cognitive malfunction". And in response Anders speculated on how common this cognitive malfunction is. Well, it's time for confessions of a paid-up chucklehead here. As a genuine religious believer, I'm definitely experiencing something subjectively, whether it's the agency attributing parts of my brain misfiring or my consciousness responding to the Divine. Discussing spirituality with co-workers in the past, I've discovered a lot of people who are "not religious, but very spiritual" - while one British comedian liked to dismiss this as "this means I don't like going to church but I'm still scared of dieing", I prefer to think of this as "I'm getting similar experiences and emotions, I just can't a find a label to fit". I sometimes wonder how common experience or non-experience of (for lack of a better phrase) "spiritual feelings" are. Anyway, I'm quite happy with the way the agency attribution in my brain works - it enriches my life, hasn't stopped me solving any equations yet, and given the philosophical difficulty of disproving the simulation argument, maybe my brain is responding correctly to the Creator's direction and other people are suffering from a neural variation that's blinding them to this side of the universe. Tom PS If Dr Broderick was still here, I'd want to kick off a discussion of how the Charismatic "gifts of the spirit" and psi sometimes seems to have an amazing overlap, but I don't know if there's a ready audience to discuss psi on this list anymore. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Tue Oct 2 22:53:11 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Tue, 02 Oct 2012 23:53:11 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: <1349215224.5355.YahooMailClassic@web132106.mail.ird.yahoo.com> References: <1349215224.5355.YahooMailClassic@web132106.mail.ird.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <506B7057.9030307@aleph.se> On 02/10/2012 23:00, Tom Nowell wrote: > > On 01/10/2012 21:05, Charlie Stross wrote: > > You seem to have missed "the human concept of "god" is a cognitive > processing error -- we observe random events and are prone to ascribe > them to purposeful behaviour, and our theory of mine then > back-projects a conscious intelligence behind it". > > > > In other words, *not* "there is no God" but "the concept of God is a > cognitive malfunction". > > And in response Anders speculated on how common this cognitive > malfunction is. Well, it's time for confessions of a paid-up > chucklehead here. As a genuine religious believer, I'm definitely > experiencing something subjectively, whether it's the agency > attributing parts of my brain misfiring or my consciousness responding > to the Divine. Discussing spirituality with co-workers in the past, > I've discovered a lot of people who are "not religious, but very > spiritual" - while one British comedian liked to dismiss this as "this > means I don't like going to church but I'm still scared of dieing", I > prefer to think of this as "I'm getting similar experiences and > emotions, I just can't a find a label to fit". I sometimes wonder how > common experience or non-experience of (for lack of a better phrase) > "spiritual feelings" are. > Spiritual feelings are very common. But there is a difference between experiencing deep meaning (and related things, all the way up to mystical experiences) and the elaborate constructions of religions. Plenty of spirituality is free from the assumption that there has to be a particular agent behind it, although in many cases people frame their spiritual experiences in the form of their culture's expectations. I do think a lot of the spiritual stuff is "misfiring" too, but the border between misfiring and having a individually meaningful experience is very blurred. See for example Austin's "Zen and the brain" for a hardcore dissection of the Zen mystical experience and an attempt at mapping it onto brain states: if his theory is right, meditation is all about deliberately whacking out the attention systems of the brain in order to cause long term changes that are actually quite adaptive. And then there are those core values and intuitions we do have: maybe not sacrosanct and above challenging from time to time, but they are what actually guides us and gives meaning to our lives. The point where I think people become chuckleheads is when they stop being truth tracking: when you decide that something is true because you believe it and then refuse to change your views no matter what the evidence is. Happens a lot outside religion too, of course. And it is just as stupid there. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Oxford Martin School Faculty of Philosophy Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Wed Oct 3 01:20:20 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Wed, 03 Oct 2012 03:20:20 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> Message-ID: <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> Il 02/10/2012 18:12, John Clark ha scritto: > Good, your response was clear and unambiguous, then logically you must > believe in one of 2 things: > 1) Wanting Western Civilization to continue is purely selfish and ignoble. Would you show your nobility offing yourself? Because I don't think someone named John Clarke on Extropy list can be anything than a product of Western Civilization. Why so much self hating? Anyway, I think the desire to live and improve is purely selfish and I like it so. The ignoble part is in the eye of the beholder. I see nothing ignoble about anyone's will to live. Good Muslims, BTW, declare they love death as much we western love life, so I always wonder the reasons they complain when the West try to lend a hand about it. > 2) Eliminating the oil from the Middle East will not cause the fall of > Western Civilization, so the reason it tries so hard to "subdue the > Middle East" remains a mystery. It is not what you believe that determinate the actions of other. It is what they believe that determinate their course of actions. The future will tell who is right. Elimination of oil will not determinate the fall of Western Civilization, we can live using nuclear reactors (fission, fusion, hybrid, LENR or whatever.) Elimination of oil would not cause China/Japan/Asia to fall either, they would do the same. Elimination of oil will cause the fall of Islam. Their civilization was sunsetting when the XX century started and what prevented it was only oil. Without oil the entire MENA would be insignificant, no more important than black Africa. If you take out the oil, some archaeological site and some tourist resort, there is nothing interesting. Iran most important exports, after oil, are pistachios. If Morocco disappear there would be a spike in the price of saffron (some catastrophic for Milan inhabitants, as it used to do their local rice dish and they would be forced to use the much more costly but higher quality south Italy saffron). The only country disappearance affecting international trade would be Israel as it is full of research centers, start ups and high tech industries). With no oil money, the MENA will not be able to import anything from anyone. Their government are already at the limit of their financial capability. They can not bribe their citizens for much longer just now. Just a few places with little population could last, but the big countries are clinging with tooths and nails. No oil imply no food for the MENA. No food imports imply half of the people must starve now. No money, no drugs. No money, no doctors and nurses, nor engineers, no drivers, no housemaids, nothing. No oil, just now, imply the total disintegration of all MENA in just a few months Mirco From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Wed Oct 3 04:02:46 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2012 21:02:46 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Reason for religions, was riots Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 2, 2012 at 3:13 PM, Mirco Romanato wrote: >> But if you have a pointer to these findings, I would be very >> interested. Modern humans, even without guns, are more than a match >> for lions. I should have mentioned that the lions leave humans alone when they are carrying long sticks with pointy things on the end. Lions that try out such humans don't live long. snip >> As I have pointed out, the behavioral switch was under a great deal of >> evolutionary pressure to "get it right." > > My opinion is this "switch" is only apparent. I am sure that you agree about animals having behavior switches. Ducks fly south in the fall and north in the spring. That's definitely a behavior that depends on external conditions. Drop a rat in water and it swims. > Cooperation allowed larger groups and languages allowed them to become > even bigger. The thing that limited hunter-gatherer group size was how far they had to walk to collect food. snip > > The "go at war" switch is, IMO, a consequence of "acts of exploiting" > from a group against another. Just say group A is resource strapped and > go hunting/gathering in the territories of Group B. Group B could see > this as an "exploit" against itself and enter in punishing mode > (sometimes a genocidal punishing mode). > > http://www.umass.edu/preferen/A%20Cooperative%20Species/ACS%20Ch%2013%20Human%20Cooperation%20and%20its%20Evolution.pdf > > Your "war mode switch" is, IMO, problematic because it require a cut off > of cooperating between humans and I believe cooperation is instinctive > in humans. So it is difficult to have a clear cut off (cooperation in > group and war mode off group). I don't know what that would be a problem. Lions cooperate inside the group but the groups do their best to kill each other. So do chimps. > If the "war mode" arise from a perceived exploitation from another group > it would be a natural extension of our ancestors evolution of > "altruistic punisher" traits. > > I would add that a "war mode" could be used by exploiters as a way to > get rid of in group competitors. They push for a war against the other > group not only to take their resources but to get rid of an excess of > far relatives inside the group. I don't follow your reasoning. snip >> I suspect that farming in northern temperate zones exerted a >> considerable genetic selection on the people who lived there. Beyond >> that you need to read the works of Gregory Clark. His book is good, >> but here is a place to start. >> http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/papers/Capitalism%20Genes.pdf > > I read this a few years ago. It was very interesting. > > Equally interesting reading was the theory of Psychohistory of deMause: > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory "In a 1994 interview with deMause in The New Yorker, the interviewer wrote: "To buy into psychohistory, you have to subscribe to some fairly woolly assumptions [...], for instance, that a nations's child-rearing techniques affect its foreign policy".[2]" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd_deMause I know a good deal about this topic. I suggest that your detector for nonsense needs to be improved if you take this guy seriously. > if it true that early ways of childrearing caused a greater number of > psychosis, it is understandable people heard voices and see things not > there and evolved explanations for it. Evolution and selections would > prefer the people hearing voices telling them the right things at the > right times (not always the good things). For a more recent and respected view of the topic try here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judith_Harris and here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Nurture_Assumption Keith From charlie.stross at gmail.com Wed Oct 3 09:35:45 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2012 10:35:45 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: <1349215224.5355.YahooMailClassic@web132106.mail.ird.yahoo.com> References: <1349215224.5355.YahooMailClassic@web132106.mail.ird.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <0BBDF669-8B1B-4388-93A3-1F61ECCB8D04@gmail.com> On 2 Oct 2012, at 23:00, Tom Nowell wrote: > And in response Anders speculated on how common this cognitive malfunction is. Well, it's time for confessions of a paid-up chucklehead here. As a genuine religious believer, I'm definitely experiencing something subjectively, whether it's the agency attributing parts of my brain misfiring or my consciousness responding to the Divine. Discussing spirituality with co-workers in the past, I've discovered a lot of people who are "not religious, but very spiritual" - while one British comedian liked to dismiss this as "this means I don't like going to church but I'm still scared of dieing", I prefer to think of this as "I'm getting similar experiences and emotions, I just can't a find a label to fit". I sometimes wonder how common experience or non-experience of (for lack of a better phrase) "spiritual feelings" are. Quite common, I think. I've had mystical experiences; I just don't attribute them to anything other than my own neurochemistry giving me an endogenous trip. -- Charlie From listsb at infinitefaculty.org Wed Oct 3 11:56:14 2012 From: listsb at infinitefaculty.org (Brian Manning Delaney) Date: Wed, 03 Oct 2012 13:56:14 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Jaw-dropping CWRU Alzheimer's breakthrough? In-Reply-To: References: <006e01ccf015$4a77b3c0$df671b40$@att.net> <007601ccf061$78548240$68fd86c0$@att.net> <002401ccf382$a3c35f90$eb4a1eb0$@att.net> <007f01ccf4fe$17cc0960$47641c20$@att.net> Message-ID: <506C27DE.1080507@infinitefaculty.org> El 2012-02-27 19:24, Jeff Davis escribi?: > 2012/2/26 spike : > >From Wikipedia re bexarotene this comment: > > Mechanism > > Bexarotene is a retinoid specifically selective for retinoid X receptors,... > RXRs are located primarily in visceral organs such as the liver and kidney. > *********************** > As the CWRU study shows efficacy on the other side of the murine BBB, > we can conclude that either bexarotene crosses the murine BBB, or that > it doesn't need to. That ApoE is upregulated and reduces dissolved > amyloid beta levels where that is (presumably) needed, is > demonstrated. Start there, re its effect across the human BBB, and go > and collect some (human) data. Still continuing my research into AD. I'm gathering info for a few close friends with early diagnoses of AD, and someone younger (pushing 50) who just found out he's an ApoE-?4 homozygote. (And man, was I slow to realize how radically personal genomics is going to change medicine!) What does being ?4/?4 mean? Well, it may mean that bexarotene would make things WORSE. We don't know just yet, but I wouldn't take bexarotene if I knew I were an ApoE-?4 homozygote, because I wouldn't want elevated levels of ApoE-?4. Be careful. Brian From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Wed Oct 3 14:43:24 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2012 16:43:24 +0200 Subject: [ExI] deep space again, was: RE: riots again In-Reply-To: References: <010f01cd9f95$1d26d4c0$57747e40$@att.net> <01e201cda004$b9702420$2c506c60$@att.net> Message-ID: On 2 October 2012 19:30, Alfio Puglisi wrote: > It seems quite obvious that, for some reason, technology does not reach > megascale proportions. I don't know, maybe when you get to the scale at > which self-gravity is significant, it might be hard to go on. Or the > intervention is subtle enough that what we think is an untouched landscape > is in fact a byproduct of it. Or maybe there's no general need for such > wide scale activity, for reasons we still have to discover. Who knows. > If we for "Intelligence" mean "computation" - the only meaning that I consider rigorous and generalised enough - I believe it to be pervasive in the universe, so that in fashion pan-psychism is ultimately true. OTOH, I am inclined to share Wolfram's view that our views on what we can find out there are exceedingly parochial and anthropomorphic, the features of our species and of its cultures being ones of a spaceset of alternatives so huge that it dwarves the dimensions of our lightcone itself. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Wed Oct 3 14:57:29 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2012 16:57:29 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Reason for religions, was riots In-Reply-To: <506A0FC7.3020502@libero.it> References: <506A0FC7.3020502@libero.it> Message-ID: On 1 October 2012 23:48, Mirco Romanato wrote: > This is a mind experiment and I agree to the conclusions, but it have some > implicit conditions in it making it worthy. For example, the implicit > condition is "there is no way for the weakest group to leave for greener > pastures". Another condition is "one group is totally genetically unrelated > with the other". Another condition is "there are no other threat to them > able to overcome them after they weaken themselves with a war". > Yup. As much as my ideas strongly differ from Mirco's with regard to at least some forms of monotheism, "religion" in the rigorous and broadest sense is simply a feature of (working, viable) human societies, like economy, or politics. In turn, religion may foster intra-group or inter-group competition and/or cooperation, which are both very plausible strategies which make or make not sense depending on the circumstances and are pretty likely here to stay, including in the most extreme posthuman scenario, until Game Theory and Darwinism will hold true. The real issue, IMHO, is that not all religions were created equal. I obviously have, for instance, a strong and legitimate preference for a society based on my values and worldview (say, transhumanism), not only because they are mine, so that their success coincides to some extent with my own, but because otherwise I would have already changed them. :-) -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Wed Oct 3 15:08:21 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2012 17:08:21 +0200 Subject: [ExI] The robot bees are coming In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 1 October 2012 22:41, BillK wrote: > 'Green Brain' Project to Create an Autonomous Flying Robot With a > Honey Bee Brain > I reported details about fruitfly brain emulation here . I suspect bees to be a rather more complex target, even more if entire bees and not just their brains where to be emulated or worse "re-implemented"... :-) -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Wed Oct 3 15:12:20 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2012 17:12:20 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> References: <22CD0B23-AD50-4119-8941-1C8BFE954472@me.com> <5065D13E.50101@libero.it> <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> Message-ID: On 30 September 2012 18:51, F. C. Moulton wrote: > And can you name that person who is supposedly against the continuation > of civilization? > Civilisation without an "s", and perhaps in the Spenglerian sense (as opposed to "Culture")? Here I am. :-) -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Wed Oct 3 15:19:25 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2012 17:19:25 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <22CD0B23-AD50-4119-8941-1C8BFE954472@me.com> <5065D13E.50101@libero.it> <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> Message-ID: On 2 October 2012 04:16, Mike Dougherty wrote: > > So you think the USA is trying to "subdue the Middle East" for good and > > noble reasons ..... > > Hell no; for purely selfish and ignoble reasons. > Interesting issue. Let us split it into its components: - Is US policy in the M-E "noble"? - Is US policy in the M-E good in some moral terms or other? - Is US policy in the M-E good for the interest of the US government and/or regime? - Is US policy in the M-E good for the interest of the US? I am inclined to answer "no" to *all* of those questions, but I do not think one's answer must necessarily be one and the same to all of them. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Wed Oct 3 15:31:20 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2012 08:31:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 3, 2012 at 5:00 AM, Charlie Stross wrote: > On 2 Oct 2012, at 23:00, Tom Nowell wrote: > >> And in response Anders speculated on how common this cognitive malfunction is. Well, it's time for confessions of a paid-up chucklehead here. As a genuine religious believer, I'm definitely experiencing something subjectively, whether it's the agency attributing parts of my brain misfiring or my consciousness responding to the Divine. Discussing spirituality with co-workers in the past, I've discovered a lot of people who are "not religious, but very spiritual" - while one British comedian liked to dismiss this as "this means I don't like going to church but I'm still scared of dieing", I prefer to think of this as "I'm getting similar experiences and emotions, I just can't a find a label to fit". I sometimes wonder how common experience or non-experience of (for lack of a better phrase) "spiritual feelings" are. > > Quite common, I think. I've had mystical experiences; I just don't attribute them to anything other than my own neurochemistry giving me an endogenous trip. Transcranial magnetic stimulation of temporal lobe is supposed to do that. Temporal lobe epilepsy is known to have that effect. What is more interesting is that a few current day religions seem to have partly originated in people whose medical history makes it likely they had temporal lobe epilepsy. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ellen_G._White#Head_injury Keith From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Wed Oct 3 15:44:35 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2012 17:44:35 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: <5069E561.5060303@aleph.se> References: <5069E561.5060303@aleph.se> Message-ID: On 1 October 2012 20:48, Anders Sandberg wrote: > Well, since it was Anton Szandor La Vey who said it, it is about as close > to the pope saying it. After all, he was the guy who founded the Church of > Satan. > Hey, it is like to say that Robespierre founded theism. :-) LaVey's brand of Satanism is a funny form of atheism which makes exclusive use of satanic iconography, and does not really involve any faith in the existence of the personal, supernatural entity who has been worshipped throughout centuries as the enemy of another personal entity with the features of the christian God. I daresay that orthodox Satanism does not really differ from traditional catholic theology unless for some understandably more "manichean" accents - and of course for the stance taken by its followers. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Wed Oct 3 15:49:19 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2012 11:49:19 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <22CD0B23-AD50-4119-8941-1C8BFE954472@me.com> <5065D13E.50101@libero.it> <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 2, 2012 Mike Dougherty wrote: > Wanting Western Civilization to continue is selfish, so what? So I am selfish and proud of it and I want my government to be selfish too because I selfishly like civilization. > It's easier to talk about "humanitarian" philosophy when every other > basic (and not-so-basic) needs are fulfilled. > Absolutely true! The only ones who say money is not important are the rich. > > I believe no oil would force Western Civilization to scale back from the > level to which we have all become accustomed. I don't want to scale back. In general since the renaissance every generation has had a better life than the one preceding it, the one big exception was in the mid 20'th century particularly in Europe. It would suck if that were repeated. > > But even a reduced level of excess would still be recognized as > "western civilization" Excess is good, I want excessive excess! Extropians are all about excess, how are we going to get sky hooks, Jupiter Brains and immortality without excess? > I don't think it's much of a mystery why we'd like those possessing > alternate ideology to be "subdued" - they have what we want and they don't > want to give it to us. They haven't given anything to the west nor have we demanded they do so, they've sold it; and they've become fabulously rich corrupt stupid and lazy as a result, just look at the ruling family of Saudi Arabia. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Wed Oct 3 16:00:07 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2012 17:00:07 +0100 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <22CD0B23-AD50-4119-8941-1C8BFE954472@me.com> <5065D13E.50101@libero.it> <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 3, 2012 at 4:19 PM, Stefano Vaj wrote: > Let us split it into its components: > - Is US policy in the M-E "noble"? > - Is US policy in the M-E good in some moral terms or other? > - Is US policy in the M-E good for the interest of the US government and/or > regime? > - Is US policy in the M-E good for the interest of the US? > > I am inclined to answer "no" to *all* of those questions, but I do not think > one's answer must necessarily be one and the same to all of them. > > That is what I was trying to work on in my previous comments. *Why* is the US invading the Middle East? My conclusion was that the US wants to secure oil resources for the next 20 years and subdue associated elements that might interfere with that goal. The US government must have reasons which seem good to them, to justify the expense in dollars and human life. As an aside, although the US war machine is in full flow, I would say that the nation has definitely not got the 'war-mode' switch set on. Most of the population are uninterested and have plenty of their own daily problems to worry about. It is the government that has decided to use the army to enforce policy. BillK From spike66 at att.net Wed Oct 3 16:21:43 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2012 09:21:43 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Religions are not the ultimate cause of war In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <00ca01cda183$2e0ec500$8a2c4f00$@att.net> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Keith Henson >... > >>... Quite common, I think. I've had mystical experiences; I just don't attribute them to anything other than my own neurochemistry giving me an endogenous trip...Tom >...Transcranial magnetic stimulation of temporal lobe is supposed to do that. Temporal lobe epilepsy is known to have that effect... If we could figure out how consistently induce spiritual or mystical experiences by some means of electromagnetic brain stimulation, we could make a cubic buttload of money. The problem is that the process may be far more psychologically addictive than any drug ever developed. Religions are like that. Or some of them are. The process seems to me as though it would be relatively safe, legal and (we would home) non-violence inducing. We could build in memes such as: love your neighbor, pray for your enemies, pity but don't slay the infidel, that sorta thing. >...What is more interesting is that a few current day religions seem to have partly originated in people whose medical history makes it likely they had temporal lobe epilepsy. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ellen_G._White#Head_injury Keith _______________________________________________ Ja. If you look at the progression over her lifetime, EG White's work might have been initiated as a result of the head injury, later motivated by a solid sense of duty and loyalty, and afterwards (at least partially, and mostly by others besides EG White) by a profit motive. By way of explanation of the sense of duty phase, this can be found in White's middle years writings. She apparently realized that the visions of her youth were illusions, as they came to an end with menopause. This is common in petit mal epilepsy patients. Dr. John Harvey Kellogg and others were aware of this as well. In the early 1890s, White attempted to come clean, but found she couldn't, for there were by that time many Seventh Day Adventist pastors who had invested everything, who would be brutally ruined, along with their entire dependent families, good people all, should White defect at that point. Apparently she looked at all the consequences of all possible roads ahead, decided it was the lesser evil to shut up and continue along the path. In her circumstances, I am not sure I would have concluded otherwise. spike From johnkclark at gmail.com Wed Oct 3 17:19:58 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2012 13:19:58 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <22CD0B23-AD50-4119-8941-1C8BFE954472@me.com> <5065D13E.50101@libero.it> <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 3, 2012 at 11:19 AM, Stefano Vaj wrote: > Let us split it into its components: > - Is US policy in the M-E "noble"? > - Is US policy in the M-E good in some moral terms or other? > - Is US policy in the M-E good for the interest of the US government > and/or regime? > - Is US policy in the M-E good for the interest of the US? > I am inclined to answer "no" to *all* of those questions, but I do not > think one's answer must necessarily be one and the same to all of them. > The Middle East is a big place and there can't just be one policy for all of it. The USA policy in Afghanistan was noble and the 2001 invasion necessary, although with each passing year the reasons for staying there become weaker, particularly now that Bin Laden is dead. The USA policy in Iraq is neither noble nor ignoble it is idiotic, mythical weapons of mass destruction level idiotic, thank you so much George Fucking Bush. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lubkin at unreasonable.com Wed Oct 3 16:40:10 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Wed, 03 Oct 2012 12:40:10 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> Message-ID: <201210031734.q93HYKGI008282@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Mirco wrote: >Elimination of oil will cause the fall of Islam. You're overstating the case. 80% of Muslims don't live in Arab countries. Not all substantially Muslim countries have oil. Not all substantially Muslim countries have nothing to offer but oil. But it's true enough for the combination of Arab + Muslim + oil, although you're neglecting the billions of dollars worth of mineral reserves they have beyond oil. A general question about jurisdictions that have substantial oil revenues (Kuwait, Venezuela, Alberta, Alaska, etc.) is are they doing anything useful for their future prosperity with their current revenue. Beyond overseas investment into other businesses, like buying Marks & Sparks. For example, building a modern, sensible transportation network. Broadband to every home. Subsidizing their citizens' acquiring skills in science, engineering, and medicine. Creating a world-class tech university and spinning off a local Silicon [ ]. Versus siphoning off money to Swiss banks, buying gold faucets, providing a guaranteed income to an idle citizenry, building showy artifacts that serve no purpose other than trying to demonstrate that they're rich and modern. -- David. From painlord2k at libero.it Wed Oct 3 19:31:36 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Wed, 03 Oct 2012 21:31:36 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Reason for religions, was riots In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <506C9298.2080209@libero.it> Il 03/10/2012 06:02, Keith Henson ha scritto: > On Tue, Oct 2, 2012 at 3:13 PM, Mirco Romanato > wrote: >>> As I have pointed out, the behavioral switch was under a great >>> deal of evolutionary pressure to "get it right." >> My opinion is this "switch" is only apparent. > I am sure that you agree about animals having behavior switches. > Ducks fly south in the fall and north in the spring. That's > definitely a behavior that depends on external conditions. Drop a > rat in water and it swims. The problem with these example, IMO, is they are predictable, repetitive, uniform on all individuals. They biologically evolved in this way. When it become cold bird start to migrate; bird migrating too early or to late migrate alone and are more probable to die. At the end the population evolve in a way the switch switch all together or near together. If human biologically evolved this behavior, they would be unable to control it in any way. It would act inside any and all individuals indifferently from the others. They would be unable to go in war mode before being compelled by the switch and unable to prevent it after. There would be no reason to develop something like religion to justifying it. But if they evolved a different behavior (cooperation) and the war mode is only a way this behavior show up in the right circumstances (your stressful situations) this would allow a wide range of adaptation: they would be able to be in war mode against Group A and friendly with Group B. They would be able to go at war and them negotiate a peace. They would be able to select their targets (kill males, keep females alive). >> Cooperation allowed larger groups and languages allowed them to >> become even bigger. > The thing that limited hunter-gatherer group size was how far they > had to walk to collect food. What I read say ?Kung need 40 hours week to gather food and cook it. But they live in the Kalahari desert and this is enough for groups of 30-40 people. If we move to a place with more resources, like a savanna, Europe grassland or forests, North America prairies. the time spent gathering food would be severely reduced as there is much more food around. The main problem, IMO, is not gathering but preserving. Not easy in hot and wet places, but easier in colder/drier places. Seasonality would add to the need to gather and preserve for the winter. In fact North Europe hunter-gathers built places to store food for winter and they needed cooperation from other individuals to defend them and share the food preserved. And some North America hunter-gatherers was sedentary because they need not to move from where they where. > I don't know what that would be a problem. Lions cooperate inside > the group but the groups do their best to kill each other. So do > chimps. True, but lions groups could be described as always in war mode against other groups. Do lions groups cooperate sometimes? Do they share a territory or a den with another different group? I think not. A lions group is all about the dominant male and his female harem. Outside it is all food or competitors. Hyena groups sometimes cooperate in a limited way. Sometimes they share the same cave with another group. This need a greater intelligence level: they must be able to recognize their group, the other group and the not welcome groups. So, sometimes they keep all other groups away, sometimes allow another group to co-habit. There is some "switch" there also. And also hyena are much more social and cooperative than felines. The difference could be linked to the fact a male lions monopolize the females in the group, kill all cubs of the predecessor where hyenas have dominant females. So the strategies of reproductions lead to different social organizations. Humans, for the majority of their evolution (even before being humans) were hunted not hunters. They developed social skills to be able to outsmart predators. This is, the greater risks came from lions, hyenas, not from other humans, so they evolved a greater ability to cooperate. Only after they become the top of the food chain, the greater risks started to become other humans. And only then they developed a war mode derived from the cooperation ability and the strategies adopted to enforce it (punishing exploiters). >> If the "war mode" arise from a perceived exploitation from another >> group it would be a natural extension of our ancestors evolution of >> "altruistic punisher" traits. >> I would add that a "war mode" could be used by exploiters as a way >> to get rid of in group competitors. They push for a war against >> the other group not only to take their resources but to get rid of >> an excess of far relatives inside the group. > I don't follow your reasoning. How you describe your "war mode switch" it appear a novel feature evolved, something not present before. Then religion develop on top of this new feature. My opinion is religion is better explained as a way to enforce cooperation and justify punishment inside the group. Then, by extension, cooperation with another group is "natural" until there is some grievance that make them to be perceived as exploiters (it doesn't matter if it is real or not) and this activate the "war mode" as an extension of the "punisher mode", just on a group level. It is a Occam Razor thing: there is no need to hypothesize a new feature developing from scratch when an old feature could be used to explain it. This would explain because the war mode spare the women and the children (sometimes). The punishment is mainly for the males. Why the war mode, as you see it, should prevent the winning warriors (even in reduced numbers) from exterminating the females of the other tribe also? More resources for the surviving warriors and their related womens and a lesser burden for the surviving warriors to support, also a smaller prize for other groups interested in acquiring women. >> Equally interesting reading was the theory of Psychohistory of >> deMause: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory > > "In a 1994 interview with deMause in The New Yorker, the interviewer > wrote: "To buy into psychohistory, you have to subscribe to some > fairly woolly assumptions [...], for instance, that a nations's > child-rearing techniques affect its foreign policy".[2]" > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd_deMause > I know a good deal about this topic. I suggest that your detector > for nonsense needs to be improved if you take this guy seriously. The idea of evolution of the human psyche is interesting; the brain surely evolved in the same time frame as, probably, some other part. It would be interesting to clone some remnant of cavemen and raising them to observe how they behave. A simulation would be better, but we have not the ability to simulate a full brain yet, nor to simulate an entire organism starting from the DNA. We know nurturing is able to silence some genes and activate others linked to behaviors like aggression. We know also, from the domestication of foxes (and other animals) that domestication select for hormonal changes, delay the development of brain, meeknesses, etc. The DNA is near the same as the wild ones, but some dominant genes/gene expression was selected for in the process. The upbringing alone is not a good explanation, but the evolution of the brain could have simply allowed an evolution of the memes and of actual nurturing techniques. Selective pressure would have, slowly, pushed out unfit individuals with unfit features and unfit memes. "for instance, that a nations's child-rearing techniques affect its foreign policy" Directly? Not. Indirectly? Why not? What is the reason governments want to control how and when children are instructed and raised? If I instill, from infancy, the idea any individual is entitled to health care, that anything goes, that is "forbidden to forbid", etc. this have consequences. If a mother must leave the children alone because she must forage (or got a job to survive) this have consequences on the development of the children as much as an helicopter mother programming the day of the children from dawn to dusk. They will be different, but they will be noteworthy. In a prehistoric setting, with a life span of 25-30 years, children would often become orphans at early ages and often they would need to survive by themselves or they could be captured as slaves from other groups. This would have modified the way their psyche developed. I disagree with deMause when he state the various styles of nurturing are simply improvements from the precedent. It is too much "shiny and progressive destiny" for me. Even the current "Helping" style it is too early to be sure it is a real improvement or simply a different style for a different environment and what will be the real consequences. deMause discount too much genetics and the habitat children grow. It is too easy to single out a single cause. It is too appealing for his ideology leaning. >> if it true that early ways of childrearing caused a greater number >> of psychosis, it is understandable people heard voices and see >> things not there and evolved explanations for it. Evolution and >> selections would prefer the people hearing voices telling them the >> right things at the right times (not always the good things). > > For a more recent and respected view of the topic try here > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judith_Harris This, also, is interesting. I don't see them contradicting each other. They simply highlight different causes and, probably, any one of them highlight the cause he/she psychologically prefer: Maybe because their experiences highlight it. Judith Harris could be right about the today's peer pressure importance in the development of the personalities of children in the western world. But I don't think this could apply in the context of small bands of 30-50 individuals (half children, half adults, half males, half females). One would have a couple of sibling around your age, no more and many children would die for a reason or another. Genetics is important, the habitat is important, nurture is important, peer pressure is important, culture is important. And each one give a feedback to the others. It is like some spaghetti code where it is difficult to understand what something do and how every part interact with the others. And we have no code to analyze, just a limited part of the output. Mirco From painlord2k at libero.it Wed Oct 3 21:03:43 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Wed, 03 Oct 2012 23:03:43 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <201210031734.q93HYKGI008282@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <201210031734.q93HYKGI008282@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <506CA82F.30303@libero.it> Il 03/10/2012 18:40, David Lubkin ha scritto: > Mirco wrote: > >> Elimination of oil will cause the fall of Islam. > > You're overstating the case. 80% of Muslims don't live in > Arab countries. The majority of Christians don't live in the West too. > Not all substantially Muslim countries have oil. > Not all substantially Muslim countries have nothing to offer > but oil. The point is the domino effect. If some important Islamic country (like Iran or Egypt) lose its ability to police people and enforce Islam monopoly of religion there, the people could start to openly leave Islam. It would be a market to grab from eager competitors (like Evangelicals or local Christians or Zoroastrians or whatever). But if Islam show its inability to monopolize its followers, others could be emboldened to go against the establishment in their countries. When all your capital is about strength, showing weakness is an invite to attack. In Iran Mosque attendance is like 2% of the people. The problem is the 2% have weapons and the 98% is unarmed. The 2% is organized, the 98% is unorganized. If the 2% show too much weakness, the 98% will swarm them. We will see what will happen in Egypt in the next few months as their money reserve dry up and they are unable to pay for all their food imports. > But it's true enough for the combination of Arab + Muslim + oil, > although you're neglecting the billions of dollars worth of > mineral reserves they have beyond oil. Egypt alone lose 1-2 billions every month importing food. Their reserves are at 6 billions. So they have something like 3-6 months before they are completely out of money. If they do, they need to half their food imports. So they will have a 25% deficit in their current caloric input. Given the majority of the people live with the government subsides for food and cooking gas, this is no good for them. This will force a lot of people to starve and will make the fertility rate plummet even faster. There will be a lot of chaos when people skip three meals in a row. > A general question about jurisdictions that have substantial > oil revenues (Kuwait, Venezuela, Alberta, Alaska, etc.) is are > they doing anything useful for their future prosperity with their > current revenue. Beyond overseas investment into other > businesses, like buying Marks & Sparks. They are trying, sometimes. But I don't understand how they could succeed when their society, because of Islam, make free inquiry and innovation a capital sin. > For example, building a modern, sensible transportation > network. Broadband to every home. Subsidizing their citizens' > acquiring skills in science, engineering, and medicine. > Creating a world-class tech university and spinning off a > local Silicon [ ]. > Versus siphoning off money to Swiss banks, buying gold > faucets, providing a guaranteed income to an idle citizenry, > building showy artifacts that serve no purpose other than > trying to demonstrate that they're rich and modern. The problem are the social institutions. If they stifle innovation, risk taking, private property rights, fundamental human rights, a fancy new transportation system will not last long and will not be very useful. Mirco From lubkin at unreasonable.com Wed Oct 3 21:49:23 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Wed, 03 Oct 2012 17:49:23 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Leveraging temporary income In-Reply-To: <506CA82F.30303@libero.it> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <201210031734.q93HYKGI008282@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506CA82F.30303@libero.it> Message-ID: <201210032149.q93Lneni000690@andromeda.ziaspace.com> I asked in "Re: [ExI] riots again": >A general question about jurisdictions that have substantial >oil revenues (Kuwait, Venezuela, Alberta, Alaska, etc.) is are >they doing anything useful for their future prosperity with their >current revenue. Beyond overseas investment into other >businesses, like buying Marks & Sparks. Mirco replied: >They are trying, sometimes. >But I don't understand how they could succeed when their society, >because of Islam, make free inquiry and innovation a capital sin. Venezuela, Alberta, and Alaska do not have Islamic societies. My question is about *all* oil-rich jurisdictions. More generally, what can any society do with a temporary (years or decades, not longer) surge of cash to create a sustainable advantage? Or narrow it down to an individual, since we're mostly individualists. You are given $1 million after taxes now, or when you are/were 25. What would you do with it to maximize its long-term benefit to you -- Go to school? Invest it? Start a business? Relocate somewhere you can live off it indefinitely? Use $100K for survival training and equipment? (I chose $10^6 specifically because it's a useful chunk, but it's not 10^8 or 10^10, where the issue is how to change the world with it, not improve your personal lot. And I already posted that question a few years ago.) -- David. From msd001 at gmail.com Wed Oct 3 22:07:03 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2012 18:07:03 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <22CD0B23-AD50-4119-8941-1C8BFE954472@me.com> <5065D13E.50101@libero.it> <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 3, 2012 at 11:49 AM, John Clark wrote: > I don't want to scale back. In general since the renaissance every > generation has had a better life than the one preceding it, the one big > exception was in the mid 20'th century particularly in Europe. It would suck > if that were repeated. I'm not in a position to make useful comments about how it really was outside my own life, so that's limited to the last 4 decades (and before college was even more extremely sheltered) and to the very small world of every day in which I have lived. I can say I'm already experiencing a scaling back. I've been increasing my gross salary every year and I still have less effective dollars than the year before. I don't think this is a harbinger of the fall of western civilization though. > Excess is good, I want excessive excess! Extropians are all about excess, > how are we going to get sky hooks, Jupiter Brains and immortality without > excess? those are the not-so-basic needs that must be fulfilled before we become selfless humanitarians, right? > >> > I don't think it's much of a mystery why we'd like those possessing >> > alternate ideology to be "subdued" - they have what we want and they don't >> > want to give it to us. > > They haven't given anything to the west nor have we demanded they do so, > they've sold it; and they've become fabulously rich corrupt stupid and lazy > as a result, just look at the ruling family of Saudi Arabia. Excessive excess is difficult to resist. It's also very addictive. As long as there is an excess to go around everyone can get along. That zero-sum game is a bitch though. From anders at aleph.se Thu Oct 4 00:28:29 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Thu, 04 Oct 2012 01:28:29 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Leveraging temporary income In-Reply-To: <201210032149.q93Lneni000690@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <201210031734.q93HYKGI008282@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506CA82F.30303@libero.it> <201210032149.q93Lneni000690@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <506CD82D.4090808@aleph.se> On 03/10/2012 22:49, David Lubkin wrote: > My question is about *all* oil-rich jurisdictions. More generally, > what can any society do with a temporary (years or decades, > not longer) surge of cash to create a sustainable advantage? > Check out Norway. They are investing most of the money in big funds. Some of the surplus is used for infrastructure - the country has some of the most impressive bridges and tunnels imaginable (although the muncipalities - who often lack money - skimp on lights in the lesser used tunnels). -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From lubkin at unreasonable.com Thu Oct 4 00:55:03 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Wed, 03 Oct 2012 20:55:03 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Leveraging temporary income In-Reply-To: <506CD82D.4090808@aleph.se> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <201210031734.q93HYKGI008282@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506CA82F.30303@libero.it> <201210032149.q93Lneni000690@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506CD82D.4090808@aleph.se> Message-ID: <201210040055.q940tKqo022807@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Anders wrote: >Check out Norway. They are investing most of the money in big funds. >Some of the surplus is used for infrastructure - the country has >some of the most impressive bridges and tunnels imaginable (although >the muncipalities - who often lack money - skimp on lights in the >lesser used tunnels). That doesn't surprise me. I was very impressed with the good sense and practicality of the people when I was there twenty years ago. -- David. From rahmans at me.com Thu Oct 4 11:00:01 2012 From: rahmans at me.com (Omar Rahman) Date: Thu, 04 Oct 2012 13:00:01 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> > On Wed, Oct 3, 2012 at 11:19 AM, Stefano Vaj wrote: > >> Let us split it into its components: >> - Is US policy in the M-E "noble"? >> - Is US policy in the M-E good in some moral terms or other? >> - Is US policy in the M-E good for the interest of the US government >> and/or regime? >> - Is US policy in the M-E good for the interest of the US? >> I am inclined to answer "no" to *all* of those questions, but I do not >> think one's answer must necessarily be one and the same to all of them. >> > > The Middle East is a big place and there can't just be one policy for all > of it. The USA policy in Afghanistan was noble and the 2001 invasion > necessary, although with each passing year the reasons for staying there > become weaker, particularly now that Bin Laden is dead. The USA policy in > Iraq is neither noble nor ignoble it is idiotic, mythical weapons of mass > destruction level idiotic, thank you so much George Fucking Bush. > > John K Clark Astounding! How exactly is US policy in Afghanistan noble? Propping up the corrupt 'mayor of Kabul' is noble? Perhaps the nobility is in the enabling of the drug trade? Is spending money/time/lives on a 'war' that can't ever be won noble? (Because it's 'on terror'...when exactly is terror going to cease to exist? I forget, which bomb blows that up again?) The invasion necessary? Al-qaeda was/is the enemy in this situation and, as a clandestine terrorist organisation, it is almost impossible to defeat by direct military action. It is only by similar clandestine operations by the CIA and other agencies are you able to effectively retaliate; that's the purpose of having these organisations. In the end it was intelligence gathering that got to Bin Laden. The actual strike team might have been military but a CIA team could have carried out the same mission but it wouldn't have been as good PR. Iraq was even more messed up than Afghanistan and I agree with you there. The only thing necessary about these wars was generating private revenues through contracts to the most bloated inefficient organ of the US Government; the US Military. As yet another attempt to steer this discussion into an extropian direction: Unless we can find some means of growing our resource base faster than both the growth of population and our growing basic 'needs' how can we avoid Malthusian collapse and/or war? If we chose to limit our reproduction? What will be the fitness function? (belief sets, mental abilities, etc.) If we choose not to limit our reproduction? How will we fight our wars? (against who, rules, technologies, etc.) Omar Rahman P.S. A war on terror, literally destroying the feeling, might be a VERY extropian/post-singularity type goal. The question remains whether we would want to win that war or not. "Terror might well be the right response for some situations." vs. "There is nothing to fear except fear itself." Anyone care to discuss? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From charlie.stross at gmail.com Thu Oct 4 11:36:32 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 12:36:32 +0100 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> Message-ID: <1E2E72C1-CB5C-4639-B77E-A2CE447B403B@gmail.com> On 4 Oct 2012, at 12:00, Omar Rahman wrote: > As yet another attempt to steer this discussion into an extropian direction: Unless we can find some means of growing our resource base faster than both the growth of population and our growing basic 'needs' how can we avoid Malthusian collapse and/or war? Google on "demographic transition". It's happening everywhere -- a transition from high birth/high death rates to low birth/low death. It appears to be a function of neonatal survival rates; when it goes from 50% mortality by age 5 to about 0.01% mortality, the result is an immediate young adult boom (lots of survivors), but if you add education to the mix the birth rate in the next generation collapses as people switch from an n-type reproductive strategy to k-type (or rather, further towards k-type). I expect a further "young adult" boom (for values of YA approximating to 50+ years) if we ever find a fix for the aging process; the demographic bump will stick around for a lot longer. But the end result is something like the situation in Japan, with a declining, aging population, or [perhaps] France, which looked as if it was going the same way but where the birth rate picked up towards replacement-level subsequently, with women deferring childbirth until older. -- Charlie From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Thu Oct 4 13:21:15 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 15:21:15 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Reason for religions, was riots In-Reply-To: <506C9298.2080209@libero.it> References: <506C9298.2080209@libero.it> Message-ID: On 3 October 2012 21:31, Mirco Romanato wrote: > The problem with these example, IMO, is they are predictable, > repetitive, uniform on all individuals. They biologically evolved in > this way. When it become cold bird start to migrate; bird migrating too > early or to late migrate alone and are more probable to die. At the end > the population evolve in a way the switch switch all together or near > together. > > If human biologically evolved this behavior, they would be unable to > control it in any way. It would act inside any and all individuals > indifferently from the others. They would be unable to go in war mode > before being compelled by the switch and unable to prevent it after. > There would be no reason to develop something like religion to > justifying it. > I have two slightly different approaches to the subject, namely: i) I agree with Arnold Gehlen and Konrad Lorenz that it is peculiar of our species that most of our "istincts" are not really such, but rather "pulsions", meaning that the istinct is there, but its object is not hard-coded as it may be the case for other "lower" animals. ii) Be it as it may, "war-mode" is simply a restrictive view of what can be more accurately and broadly defined as "aggression". Now, aggression is vastly controlled and ritualised and regulated also in other species, especially amongst carnivores, including but not limitedly by cooperative alternatives; but the "aggressive" istinct is an unavoidable part of our ethology, and is expressed not just by military conflicts, but by competition for sexual mates, for the access to limited resources, for social success, in sports and games, in business, in artistic or literary excellence, and by definition in politics, that is the domain (see Carl Schmitt) having for subject by definition the identification of "friends" and "enemies", a distinction which may per se involve at least in some scenarios one kind or another of violent confrontation. Now, it is very doubtful for me that aggression in the broadest sense has become a disfunctional feature in our societies. Were this the case, the trait would be quickly eliminated from our genetic endowment, and no such process appears to be in place. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Thu Oct 4 15:43:51 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 17:43:51 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Leveraging temporary income In-Reply-To: <201210032149.q93Lneni000690@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <201210031734.q93HYKGI008282@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506CA82F.30303@libero.it> <201210032149.q93Lneni000690@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On 3 October 2012 23:49, David Lubkin wrote: > More generally, > what can any society do with a temporary (years or decades, > not longer) surge of cash to create a sustainable advantage? > Hey, is this question really asked on a transhumanist ml? :-) R&D. Sure, it remains to be seen which R&D programmes should prioritised. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lubkin at unreasonable.com Thu Oct 4 15:47:56 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Thu, 04 Oct 2012 11:47:56 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA Message-ID: <201210041548.q94FmDr8008777@andromeda.ziaspace.com> http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/aug/16/book-written-dna-code?INTCMP=SRCH Book written in DNA code My brain is roiling with the implications of this. Don't be surprised if short fiction manifests. -- David. From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Thu Oct 4 16:23:20 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 18:23:20 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> Message-ID: On 3 October 2012 03:20, Mirco Romanato wrote: > Elimination of oil will not determinate the fall of Western Civilization, > we can live using nuclear reactors (fission, fusion, hybrid, LENR or > whatever.) > Elimination of oil would not cause China/Japan/Asia to fall either, they > would do the same. > Elimination of oil will cause the fall of Islam. > Hey, this is why enlightened - or at least prevident - muslims (ie, Iran) are switching to nuclear themselves. :-) -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lubkin at unreasonable.com Thu Oct 4 16:26:53 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Thu, 04 Oct 2012 12:26:53 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Leveraging temporary income In-Reply-To: References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <201210031734.q93HYKGI008282@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506CA82F.30303@libero.it> <201210032149.q93Lneni000690@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <201210041627.q94GR9a2002862@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Stefano wrote: >Hey, is this question really asked on a transhumanist ml? :-) > >R&D. > >Sure, it remains to be seen which R&D programmes should prioritised. See my previous email: >For example, building a modern, sensible transportation >network. Broadband to every home. Subsidizing their citizens' >acquiring skills in science, engineering, and medicine. >Creating a world-class tech university and spinning off a >local Silicon [ ]. Imagine it's Madagascar or Kyrgystan. Saying "R&D" is meaningless. Forget about *what* they should be researching. There are no world-class universities or research facilities. Negligible communication or transportation infrastructure. They don't have the scientists and engineers to perform the R&D or the manufacturing prowess (in plant and personnel) to build whatever the R&D works out. Kyrgystan is currently the second poorest country in Central Asia. 90% of Madagascar lives on under $2 a day, 70% under a dollar a day. The only way they can plow sudden wealth into R&D is importing a cohort of foreigners, which introduces its own problems and doesn't set them up for later success. -- David. From johnkclark at gmail.com Thu Oct 4 16:43:02 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 12:43:02 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 7:00 AM, Omar Rahman wrote: > Astounding! How exactly is US policy in Afghanistan noble? Propping up > the corrupt 'mayor of Kabul' is noble? > Yes. The government in Afghanistan has been brutal and corrupt since.... since forever, nobody thought that was going to change anytime soon, but in the immediate aftermath of 911 many, including me, thought that replacing a brutal and corrupt administration that was openly protecting Osama bin Laden with a brutal and corrupt administration that was not was a noble thing to do. And it is just untenable to expect the USA to allow Osama bin Laden and the Taliban to thumb his nose at them indefinitely. > Perhaps the nobility is in the enabling of the drug trade? > As a libertarian and a Extropian I have nothing against the drug trade. > In the end it was intelligence gathering that got to Bin Laden. > Yes and that intelligence was gathered by interrogating Al-Qaeda members captured in military actions; and in the actual raid that killed Bin Laden more intelligence was obtained about Al-Qaeda than in the last 10 years, so much stuff the helicopters nearly weren't able to fly it all out. > as a clandestine terrorist organisation, it is almost impossible to > defeat by direct military action. > Tell that to the leaders of Al-Qaeda, oh wait you can't, most of then have been turned into mush by drone attacks. So tell it to all the people that right after 911 said we could expect a attack of similar scale in a matter of weeks if not days; its been over 11 years and still nothing. > Unless we can find some means of growing our resource base faster than > both the growth of population and our growing basic 'needs' how can we > avoid Malthusian collapse and/or war? > A keen grasp of the obvious. And by the way, I counted 10 rhetorical questions in your short post, and that's just too many. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Thu Oct 4 16:23:57 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 09:23:57 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA In-Reply-To: <201210041548.q94FmDr8008777@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201210041548.q94FmDr8008777@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 8:47 AM, David Lubkin wrote: > http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/aug/16/book-written-dna-code?INTCMP=SRCH > Book written in DNA code > > My brain is roiling with the implications of this. Don't be surprised > if short fiction manifests. A book written in the "junk" DNA of a large family, socially engineered to breed mainly with each other (the genetic risks of inbreeding having been removed), with pages written as whole strands of DNA so the pages might get randomly distributed but each page would be intact? Someone whose DNA was supposedly written to include a novel, whose life then plays out much like that novel - only to learn later that it was only a metaphor (the life that was lead is spoken of as a novel, and the genes just set it up) or that the novel DNA was actually inside someone else instead? Some magic incantation written in DNA, whose strands were dispersed through normal breeding through the generations, but which by chance (or not) come back together in a far-distant descendant? From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Thu Oct 4 17:12:27 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 19:12:27 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Leveraging temporary income In-Reply-To: <201210041627.q94GR9a2002862@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <201210031734.q93HYKGI008282@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506CA82F.30303@libero.it> <201210032149.q93Lneni000690@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <201210041627.q94GR9a2002862@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On 4 October 2012 18:26, David Lubkin wrote: > Imagine it's Madagascar or Kyrgystan. Saying "R&D" is > meaningless. > Kyrgystan is currently the second poorest country in Central Asia. > 90% of Madagascar lives on under $2 a day, 70% under a dollar > a day. The only way they can plow sudden wealth into R&D is > importing a cohort of foreigners, which introduces its own > problems and doesn't set them up for later success. > Mmhhh. Yes. But this is true because they actually do *not* have a "sudden surge of cash". Otherwise they would not be in their current predicament in the first place. I suspect that unlimited fundings, strong motivation and a favourable legal framework could do miracles even in a seasteading operation, which would certainly be much "poorer" in absolute terms. North Korea managed to develop some kind-of nuclear/space tech, and yet they cannot really be considered as swimming in cash, natural resources, international support and brain drain from other countries. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Thu Oct 4 17:22:03 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 19:22:03 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> Message-ID: On 4 October 2012 18:43, John Clark wrote: > Yes. The government in Afghanistan has been brutal and corrupt since.... > since forever, nobody thought that was going to change anytime soon, but in > the immediate aftermath of 911 many, including me, thought that replacing a > brutal and corrupt administration that was openly protecting Osama bin > Laden with a brutal and corrupt administration that was not was a noble > thing to do. And it is just untenable to expect the USA to allow Osama bin > Laden and the Taliban to thumb his nose at them indefinitely. > Understandable? Justifiable? Even useful, perhaps? But what is exactly "noble" in acting for one's own best interest and protection or in seeking revenge for torts? Any ordinary thug or... banker does just the same. And I assume you would not consider muslims as "noble" for doing just the same. Doing their job, at best... .-) As a libertarian and a Extropian I have nothing against the drug trade. > I am a staunch anti-prohibitionist myself, but this does not mean that I like much the players in the current criminalised market... I am pro-choice as well, but those engaged in the black market of abortion were quite despicable, for instance. Ditto for Al Capone and his friends with alcohol. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rtomek at ceti.pl Thu Oct 4 17:40:19 2012 From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 19:40:19 +0200 (CEST) Subject: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA In-Reply-To: References: <201210041548.q94FmDr8008777@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Thu, 4 Oct 2012, Adrian Tymes wrote: > On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 8:47 AM, David Lubkin wrote: > > http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/aug/16/book-written-dna-code?INTCMP=SRCH > > Book written in DNA code > > > > My brain is roiling with the implications of this. Don't be surprised > > if short fiction manifests. > > A book written in the "junk" DNA of a large family, socially > engineered to breed mainly with each other (the genetic risks > of inbreeding having been removed), with pages written as > whole strands of DNA so the pages might get randomly > distributed but each page would be intact? > > Someone whose DNA was supposedly written to include a > novel, whose life then plays out much like that novel - only to > learn later that it was only a metaphor (the life that was lead > is spoken of as a novel, and the genes just set it up) or that > the novel DNA was actually inside someone else instead? > > Some magic incantation written in DNA, whose strands were > dispersed through normal breeding through the generations, but > which by chance (or not) come back together in a far-distant > descendant? During medical examination it is discovered one man has a copy of all Michael Jackson CDs in his junk DNA. The man is immediately castrated by pirate hunters working for multimedia conglomerate (with cooperation of lawyers and police). Or, to make it more fun, he escapes, runs away, gets caught etc later. I think this could be made into new, modern kind of "Beverly Hills" series or something. If only Holly-uhum-uhum had balls of any kind, even prosthetic ones. Regards, Tomasz Rola -- ** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature. ** ** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home ** ** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened... ** ** ** ** Tomasz Rola mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com ** From atymes at gmail.com Thu Oct 4 17:56:47 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 10:56:47 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA In-Reply-To: References: <201210041548.q94FmDr8008777@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 10:40 AM, Tomasz Rola wrote: > During medical examination it is discovered one man has a copy of all > Michael Jackson CDs in his junk DNA. The man is immediately castrated by > pirate hunters working for multimedia conglomerate (with cooperation of > lawyers and police). Or, to make it more fun, he escapes, runs away, gets > caught etc later. I think this could be made into new, modern kind of > "Beverly Hills" series or something. If only Holly-uhum-uhum had balls of > any kind, even prosthetic ones. Said man then goes on to invent an algorithm by which anyone's DNA can be translated to any piece of music. The legal system tries to rule that it is the act of making the specific iteration that translates to a copyrighted song that is the act of piracy, until he cites precedent that he was held liable for an existing iteration that translated his DNA, then produces iterations that translate the judge's and the prosecutor's DNA. Alternately, a mastermind gets to mass copyrighting of DNA (possibly forged, possibly not), then sues a bunch of ordinary people to establish precedent to enforce his claims. Only once he is armed with extensive legal precedent does he start going after people in power. From anders at aleph.se Thu Oct 4 19:21:21 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Thu, 04 Oct 2012 20:21:21 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Leveraging temporary income In-Reply-To: References: <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <201210031734.q93HYKGI008282@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506CA82F.30303@libero.it> <201210032149.q93Lneni000690@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <506DE1B1.7070604@aleph.se> On 04/10/2012 16:43, Stefano Vaj wrote: > On 3 October 2012 23:49, David Lubkin > wrote: > > More generally, > what can any society do with a temporary (years or decades, > not longer) surge of cash to create a sustainable advantage? > > > Hey, is this question really asked on a transhumanist ml? :-) > > R&D. > > Sure, it remains to be seen which R&D programmes should prioritised. > R&D is also a public good to a large extent. There is no doubt that a good university or research facility has spillover effects nearby - you have a good chance of getting a few spin-off companies, the local intelligentia may trigger a Richard Florida-type creative class cluster, and you get a public with higher human capital. But the R&D results can be hard to harness locally: many places find that their findings produce useful benefits far away, but not locally. Sweden, for example, is doing lots of good R&D but due to a lack of entreprenurship most patents and companies end up abroad. If you only care about the total good, this might not be a problem, but I suspect the recipients of windfalls are not total altruists. Typically investing in human capital has good returns: even if people go abroad to work, remittances to families back home are worth a lot (more than all foreign aid in total, in fact). Similarly for institutional capital: rule of law, predictable and effective regulations, higher trust are good things for any society, and tends to give a cumulative advantage. That can also be done with relatively little money - in fact, huge influxes of money in a society with weak institutional capital is a recipe for corruption. If you are going to invest in R&D, my current pet opinion is that the return per dollar spent is much higher in underresearched and totally new areas than any mature areas. So you might want to invest in a lot of little wild projects in the hope that one or two takes off, rather than spend it all on something obviously worthwhile but well researched. It works for venture capitalists. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rtomek at ceti.pl Thu Oct 4 19:25:24 2012 From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 21:25:24 +0200 (CEST) Subject: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA In-Reply-To: References: <201210041548.q94FmDr8008777@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Thu, 4 Oct 2012, Adrian Tymes wrote: > Said man then goes on to invent an algorithm by which anyone's DNA > can be translated to any piece of music. The legal system tries to > rule that it is the act of making the specific iteration that translates to > a copyrighted song that is the act of piracy, until he cites precedent > that he was held liable for an existing iteration that translated his DNA, > then produces iterations that translate the judge's and the prosecutor's > DNA. > > Alternately, a mastermind gets to mass copyrighting of DNA (possibly > forged, possibly not), then sues a bunch of ordinary people to establish > precedent to enforce his claims. Only once he is armed with extensive > legal precedent does he start going after people in power. The people in power eliminate "the communist" and replay his trick, this time targetting people without power? Regards, Tomasz Rola -- ** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature. ** ** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home ** ** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened... ** ** ** ** Tomasz Rola mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com ** From johnkclark at gmail.com Thu Oct 4 19:41:27 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 15:41:27 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 1:22 PM, Stefano Vaj wrote: > Understandable? Justifiable? Even useful, perhaps? But what is exactly > "noble" in acting for one's own best interest and protection or in seeking > revenge for torts? > Off the top of my head I can't think of anything that is understandable justifiable and useful that is not noble, particularly if it works to my own best interests. >>As a libertarian and a Extropian I have nothing against the drug trade. >> > > > I am a staunch anti-prohibitionist myself, but this does not mean that I > like much the players in the current criminalised market... I am pro-choice > as well, but those engaged in the black market of abortion were quite > despicable, for instance. Ditto for Al Capone and his friends with alcohol. > There are certainly a lot of unpleasant characters in the illegal drug trade, but then if government made chocolate bars illegal then the underground Hershey candy company and the underground Mars candy company would have no way to settle disputes except through baseball bats and machine guns. John k Clark > > -- > Stefano Vaj > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Thu Oct 4 19:54:35 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 12:54:35 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA In-Reply-To: References: <201210041548.q94FmDr8008777@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <019f01cda26a$14bebcd0$3e3c3670$@att.net> On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 8:47 AM, David Lubkin wrote: > http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/aug/16/book-written-dna-code?INTCMP=S RCH > Book written in DNA code > > My brain is roiling with the implications of this. Don't be surprised if short fiction manifests... Ja, books start to be recorded in DNA, you know sooner or later, Hofstadters's Eternal Golden Braid will meet Drexler's Engines of Creation, you know they would fall hard for each other, and evolution knows what the hell would be born. Whatever it is, I want to read it. spike From brainwav93 at hotmail.com Thu Oct 4 20:45:26 2012 From: brainwav93 at hotmail.com (T. Watts) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 14:45:26 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA In-Reply-To: <019f01cda26a$14bebcd0$3e3c3670$@att.net> References: <201210041548.q94FmDr8008777@andromeda.ziaspace.com>, , <019f01cda26a$14bebcd0$3e3c3670$@att.net> Message-ID: In Russian transhumanist future, books write YOU. > From: spike66 at att.net > To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 12:54:35 -0700 > Subject: Re: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA > > > > On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 8:47 AM, David Lubkin > wrote: > > > http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/aug/16/book-written-dna-code?INTCMP=S > RCH > > Book written in DNA code > > > > My brain is roiling with the implications of this. Don't be surprised if > short fiction manifests... > > Ja, books start to be recorded in DNA, you know sooner or later, > Hofstadters's Eternal Golden Braid will meet Drexler's Engines of Creation, > you know they would fall hard for each other, and evolution knows what the > hell would be born. > > Whatever it is, I want to read it. > > spike > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Thu Oct 4 19:54:16 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 12:54:16 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA In-Reply-To: References: <201210041548.q94FmDr8008777@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 12:25 PM, Tomasz Rola wrote: > On Thu, 4 Oct 2012, Adrian Tymes wrote: >> Alternately, a mastermind gets to mass copyrighting of DNA (possibly >> forged, possibly not), then sues a bunch of ordinary people to establish >> precedent to enforce his claims. Only once he is armed with extensive >> legal precedent does he start going after people in power. > > The people in power eliminate "the communist" and replay his trick, this > time targetting people without power? Careful cost-benefit analysis. Assassination is not free, especially within a civil society, so don't demand all the power, or even just enough to make it worth their while to bump the guy off. $1 trillion and effective immunity from the law is one thing. Several $million - enough to get $1 million/year from conservative investments - is quite another, and enough for a canny player (and this guy's already established as such) to live comfortably and fund certain exponential-returns-potential developments. From moulton at moulton.com Thu Oct 4 20:40:14 2012 From: moulton at moulton.com (F. C. Moulton) Date: Thu, 04 Oct 2012 13:40:14 -0700 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> Message-ID: <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> On 10/04/2012 09:43 AM, John Clark wrote: > > Yes. The government in Afghanistan has been brutal and corrupt since.... > since forever, nobody thought that was going to change anytime soon, but > in the immediate aftermath of 911 many, including me, thought that > replacing a brutal and corrupt administration that was openly protecting > Osama bin Laden with a brutal and corrupt administration that was not > was a noble thing to do. And it is just untenable to expect the USA to > allow Osama bin Laden and the Taliban to thumb his nose at them > indefinitely. > And the "many people" who thought that invading Afghanistan was a good idea have been shown to be wrong. Decade after decade the USA has gone messing around in that part of the world causing all kinds of problems and getting a lot of people angry. Then the politicians are shocked, shocked that a few people decide that terrorism is the best path. The level of mendacity and hubris associated with this entire Afghanistan fiasco is appalling. According to this story even some politicians are beginning to have second thoughts: http://reason.com/blog/2012/09/30/theres-something-really-wrong-with-whats And of course when the USA finally does pull their troops out there will still be unexploded bombs and shells from all sides which will probably be a burden on the local populations for years to come. Fred From spike66 at att.net Thu Oct 4 21:29:07 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 14:29:07 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA In-Reply-To: References: <201210041548.q94FmDr8008777@andromeda.ziaspace.com>, , <019f01cda26a$14bebcd0$3e3c3670$@att.net> Message-ID: <002d01cda277$496ab3f0$dc401bd0$@att.net> >> .Whatever it is, I want to read it. > > spike From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of T. Watts Subject: Re: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA In Russian transhumanist future, books write YOU. T, honestly I can say, books have pretty much written me already. I am made of the books I have read. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lubkin at unreasonable.com Thu Oct 4 22:04:36 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Thu, 04 Oct 2012 18:04:36 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA In-Reply-To: <002d01cda277$496ab3f0$dc401bd0$@att.net> References: <201210041548.q94FmDr8008777@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <019f01cda26a$14bebcd0$3e3c3670$@att.net> <002d01cda277$496ab3f0$dc401bd0$@att.net> Message-ID: <201210042204.q94M4q0c009325@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Spike wrote: >T, honestly I can say, books have pretty much written me already. I >am made of the books I have read. How were they stored? Do you have a pleasant, vanilla smell, or are you more dusty and mildewed...? -- David. From msd001 at gmail.com Thu Oct 4 22:05:22 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 18:05:22 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA In-Reply-To: References: <201210041548.q94FmDr8008777@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 12:23 PM, Adrian Tymes wrote: > the novel DNA was actually inside someone else instead? The first time such is written it would be novel novel DNA, yes? From lubkin at unreasonable.com Thu Oct 4 22:10:50 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Thu, 04 Oct 2012 18:10:50 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Watch the skies Message-ID: <201210042211.q94MB2Xj003162@andromeda.ziaspace.com> http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/333993#ixzz28N0vh2v8 C/2012 S1 comet heading toward Earth could outshine Moon in 2013 I missed Halley's and Hale-Bopp, so I plan to be stoked next year. -- David. From spike66 at att.net Thu Oct 4 22:21:17 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 15:21:17 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA In-Reply-To: <201210042204.q94M4q0c009325@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201210041548.q94FmDr8008777@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <019f01cda26a$14bebcd0$3e3c3670$@att.net> <002d01cda277$496ab3f0$dc401bd0$@att.net> <201210042204.q94M4q0c009325@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <004901cda27e$93977c90$bac675b0$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of David Lubkin Subject: Re: [ExI] Bulk storage in DNA Spike wrote: >>...T, honestly I can say, books have pretty much written me already. I am made of the books I have read. >...How were they stored? Do you have a pleasant, vanilla smell, or are you more dusty and mildewed...? -- David. _______________________________________________ Alas, it's the latter I fear. But in recent years, my reading has almost entirely been online, so I have no scent at all. Or some would argue I smell like the crap I read every day online. I prefer to think of my online reading choices as esoteric wisdom, however. spike From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Thu Oct 4 23:29:30 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 16:29:30 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Reason for religions, was riots (Stefano Vaj) Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 3:04 PM, Stefano Vaj wrote: > On 3 October 2012 21:31, Mirco Romanato wrote: > >> The problem with these example, IMO, is they are predictable, >> repetitive, uniform on all individuals. They biologically evolved in >> this way. When it become cold bird start to migrate; bird migrating too >> early or to late migrate alone and are more probable to die. Bird migration is switched on length of day, not temperature. >> >> If human biologically evolved this behavior, they would be unable to >> control it in any way. It would act inside any and all individuals >> indifferently from the others. That would be very strange and unlike other animal behaviors. For example, why would you think that small children would be affected by a "war mode" switch? >>They would be unable to go in war mode >> before being compelled by the switch and unable to prevent it after. I have stated, if you have read "Evolutionary psychology, memes and the origin of war", that there are multiple ways to get into "war mode." The fastest is to be attacked. Think Pearl Harbor or 9/11. >> There would be no reason to develop something like religion to >> justifying it. There is good reason for going into war mode as an aggressor to be a slow process. It would be stupid to go into war mode just because the hunters didn't kill anything today. The model is that perception of a bleak future turns up the gain on the spread of xenophobic memes. The memes (in the stone age) eventually synchronized the warriors for a do or die attack on neighbors. The same psychological mechanisms in an "idle" state give humans the ability to be "infected" by religions. It is common for religions, especially new ones like scientology, to invoke a great deal of xenophobia against non members. In the case of that cult, they enforce "disconnection" against family members who leave. > I have two slightly different approaches to the subject, namely: snip > ii) Be it as it may, "war-mode" is simply a restrictive view of what can be > more accurately and broadly defined as "aggression". I don't think so. Aggression is mainly an individual behavior. War is a group on group affair. Keith From johnkclark at gmail.com Fri Oct 5 03:52:13 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2012 23:52:13 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 4:40 PM, F. C. Moulton wrote: > the "many people" who thought that invading Afghanistan was a good idea > have been shown to be wrong. In late 2001 doing nothing and letting Osama bin Laden sit safely and openly in Afghanistan under the protection of the Taliban was simply not a viable option and to pretend otherwise is unrealistic. > Decade after decade the USA has gone messing around in that part of the > world causing all kinds of problems > and getting a lot of people angry. Then the politicians are shocked, > shocked that a few people decide that terrorism is the best path. So you believe that if you're nice to moronic religious terrorists then moronic religious terrorists will be nice to you. I disagree. > And of course when the USA finally does pull their troops out there will > still be unexploded bombs and shells from all sides which will probably be > a burden on the local populations for years to come. > That will be the least of their problems, when the USA finally does pull out I predict that he Afghan people will not miss a beat and will immediately find a new war to fight, just as they have for 1500 years. But at least the next time some mega terrorist like Osama bin Laden comes along not just Afghanistan but governments all over the world will know its not healthy to give him protection. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From moulton at moulton.com Fri Oct 5 05:58:37 2012 From: moulton at moulton.com (F. C. Moulton) Date: Thu, 04 Oct 2012 22:58:37 -0700 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> Message-ID: <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> On 10/04/2012 08:52 PM, John Clark wrote: > > Decade after decade the USA has gone messing around in that part > of the world causing all kinds of problems > and getting a lot of people angry. Then the politicians are > shocked, shocked that a few people decide that terrorism is the best > path. > > So you believe that if you're nice to moronic religious terrorists then > moronic religious terrorists will be nice to you. I disagree. > I never said nor did I imply that being "nice to moronic religious terrorists then moronic religious terrorists will be nice to you". This is yet another example of you attributing positions to other list participants which they have not stated. There is a simple term for what you are doing and that term is 'intellectual dishonesty' and I am calling you on it. If your positions and opinions are so weak that you can only respond by using false inferences about the other list members then I strongly suggest you do some serious personal reflection. There are standards of conduct for this list and I suggest you follow them. And one of the cardinal standards is not spreading falsehoods about other list members. Fred From rahmans at me.com Fri Oct 5 09:26:33 2012 From: rahmans at me.com (Omar Rahman) Date: Fri, 05 Oct 2012 11:26:33 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <607D32DC-90C0-470F-B2C7-9FC5D08E31A8@me.com> > On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 7:00 AM, Omar Rahman wrote: > >> Astounding! How exactly is US policy in Afghanistan noble? Propping up >> the corrupt 'mayor of Kabul' is noble? >> > > Yes. The government in Afghanistan has been brutal and corrupt since.... > since forever, nobody thought that was going to change anytime soon, but in > the immediate aftermath of 911 many, including me, thought that replacing a > brutal and corrupt administration that was openly protecting Osama bin > Laden with a brutal and corrupt administration that was not was a noble > thing to do. (Read in the voice of Yoda please.) Myopically short term pragmatism a new definition of noble is? > And it is just untenable to expect the USA to allow Osama bin > Laden and the Taliban to thumb his nose at them indefinitely. > >> Perhaps the nobility is in the enabling of the drug trade? >> > > As a libertarian and a Extropian I have nothing against the drug trade. > (Again Yoda.) A libertarian you are? Trade in free will impairing chemicals, have nothing against you do? Personal freedom and and property rights you believe in, a contradiction not see you? >> In the end it was intelligence gathering that got to Bin Laden. >> > > Yes and that intelligence was gathered by interrogating Al-Qaeda members > captured in military actions; (You get the idea.) Only in military operations intelligence gathered was? Of oxymoron never heard have you? > and in the actual raid that killed Bin Laden > more intelligence was obtained about Al-Qaeda than in the last 10 years, so > much stuff the helicopters nearly weren't able to fly it all out. (It's a theme....) Rely on the power of the force must they have? > >> as a clandestine terrorist organisation, it is almost impossible to >> defeat by direct military action. >> > > So tell it to all the people that > right after 911 said we could expect a attack of similar scale in a matter > of weeks if not days; its been over 11 years and still nothing. (...that I shall continue...) Fear mongers they were? To the dark side they took us? > >> Unless we can find some means of growing our resource base faster than >> both the growth of population and our growing basic 'needs' how can we >> avoid Malthusian collapse and/or war? >> > > A keen grasp of the obvious. And by the way, I counted 10 rhetorical > questions in your short post, and that's just too many. > > John K Clark (...to the end.) Call me Captain you shall? Count higher able are you? Omar Rahman am I. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Fri Oct 5 10:05:53 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 11:05:53 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Dementia Plague Message-ID: Good article about the coming dementia disaster. Quotes: Almost every dementia patient has worried family members huddled in the background, and almost every story about dementia includes a moment when loved ones plead with the doctor for something?any medicine, any intervention, anything?to forestall a relentless process that strips away identity, personality, and ultimately the basic ability to think. Unfortunately, Evelyn Granieri is the wrong person to ask. In 2010 she served on a high-level panel of experts that assessed every possible dementia intervention, from expensive cholinesterase-?inhibiting drugs to cognitive exercises like crossword puzzles, for the National Institutes of Health; it found no evidence that any of the interventions could prevent the onslaught of Alzheimer's. She can?with immense compassion, but equally immense conviction?explain the reality for now and the immediate future: "There really is nothing." Dementia is a chronic, progressive, terminal disease, she says. "You don't get better, ever." ----- The latest global demographic analysis, from a World Health Organization report issued earlier this year, paints the dimensions of that slow-motion catastrophe in quick strokes. An estimated 36 million people worldwide currently suffer from dementia; experts predict the number will double, to approximately 70 million, by 2030 and triple by 2050. (China, India, and Latin America in particular face daunting medico-economic crises.) Since the prevalence of the disease doubles with every five-year age increment after 65, projections for 2050 put the total global population at risk for dementia (people 65 or older) at two billion. The calculus is as grim as it is simple: as more people live longer, more slide into dementia. Care for those patients currently costs $100 billion a year in the United States, with a projected cost over the next 40 years of $20 trillion; by 2050, the annual cost to U.S. society is projected to be $1 trillion a year. ---- Not only is dementia distressingly widespread, but the complex overlap of symptoms and possible causes makes addressing the problem broader and trickier than just treating Alzheimer's. The emerging reality, which has become increasingly apparent with better brain imaging, is that the majority of cases among the elderly are so-called "mixed dementias"; the cognitive impairment is due to a combination of vascular problems, such as mini-strokes in discrete parts of the brain, and the more classic Alzheimer's pattern of amyloid plaques. Large-scale international studies in the past three years have shown, according to a recent scientific summary, that dementias caused by blood-vessel lesions in the brain, including vascular dementia and mixed dementia, "together comprise the most common forms of dementia at autopsy in community-based studies." ---- So, if we are going to cure ageing to give us longer lives, we also have to cure all the diseases associated with ageing. BillK From pharos at gmail.com Fri Oct 5 11:08:27 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 12:08:27 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Dementia Plague In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Fri, Oct 5, 2012 at 11:05 AM, BillK wrote: > Good article about the coming dementia disaster. > > Another thought occurs. If dementia starts about 15 or 20 years before symptoms appear, this has implications for cryonics. One hospital reported that of patients aged 70 years or more, about 90% showed some signs of cognitive impairment. So elderly cryonics patients are probably storing brains already damaged by dementia. The rebuilding job becomes more complex. BillK From charlie.stross at gmail.com Fri Oct 5 11:45:56 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 12:45:56 +0100 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> Message-ID: On 4 Oct 2012, at 21:40, F. C. Moulton wrote: > On > And the "many people" who thought that invading Afghanistan was a good > idea have been shown to be wrong. I am suppressing groans of laughter. (Not the happy fun kind of laughter, mind you.) The US foreign policy apparat has a bad case of "not invented here" where it comes to this sort of thing -- not just the state department, but the *entire* political framework that deals with the outside world. It's as if *nobody at all* had studied the history of previous military interventions in Afghanistan. By which I'm not just talking about the Soviets; it's like nobody had heard of the Anglo-Afghan Wars, much less the grisly fate of General Elphinstone's Expedition during the 1842 Retreat from Kabul -- the worst defeat ever inflicted on the British Empire. It's just an all-around Bad Place to Go. Always has been. Even Alexander the Great had second thoughts about trying to occupy Afghanistan. -- Charlie From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Fri Oct 5 12:15:44 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 14:15:44 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Reason for religions, was riots (Stefano Vaj) In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 5 October 2012 01:29, Keith Henson wrote: > > ii) Be it as it may, "war-mode" is simply a restrictive view of what can > be > > more accurately and broadly defined as "aggression". > > I don't think so. Aggression is mainly an individual behavior. War > is a group on group affair. > Whatever we may call it, I suspect that performance in electoral campaigns, commercial competition, or football matches largely depends on the activation of the "war-mode" switch. Exactly like cooperation, competition and aggression exist both at an individual and at a group level and are both plausible evolutionary and game theory strategies depending on the circumstances. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From mbb386 at main.nc.us Fri Oct 5 13:27:18 2012 From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 09:27:18 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> Message-ID: > framework that deals with the outside world. > > It's as if *nobody at all* had studied the history of > previous military interventions in Afghanistan. By which > I'm not just talking about the Soviets; it's like nobody > had heard of the Anglo-Afghan Wars, much less the grisly > fate of General Elphinstone's Expedition during the 1842 > Retreat from Kabul -- the worst defeat ever inflicted on > the British Empire. > Exactly so. When we started there I said to my kids, "Someone has not read their Kipling lately..." Regards, MB From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Fri Oct 5 14:39:37 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 16:39:37 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> Message-ID: On 4 October 2012 21:41, John Clark wrote: > Off the top of my head I can't think of anything that is understandable > justifiable and useful that is not noble, particularly if it works to my > own best interests. > I am under the impression that "noble" and "self-serving, self-indulgent" are considered in most languages, at least this side of the pond, as more or less the antonymes of each other. Not that I think that only "altruism" - if it exists at all - would be noble. But certainly the nobility of a cause cannot be measured on its correspondence with the immediate interest or psychology of the party involved. Nor the lack of correspondence would automatically allow us to consider it as "ignoble, base, vulgar, common". > There are certainly a lot of unpleasant characters in the illegal drug > trade, but then if government made chocolate bars illegal then the > underground Hershey candy company and the underground Mars candy company > would have no way to settle disputes except through baseball bats and > machine guns. > Yes, and they would attract even more unpleasant characters than they currently employ for the sale of their poisons. :-) Exactly my point. :-) -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Fri Oct 5 14:47:10 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 16:47:10 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> Message-ID: On 5 October 2012 05:52, John Clark wrote: > In late 2001 doing nothing and letting Osama bin Laden sit safely and > openly in Afghanistan under the protection of the Taliban was simply not a > viable option and to pretend otherwise is unrealistic. > Agreed. Not to yield to the temptation of profiting from the opportunity was not really an option for the powers that be and their ideologues , and to pretend otherwise is unrealistic. :-) This is probably the reason why conspiracy lovers have such a field day with 9/11. Irrespective of what actually happened, it must have seemed something too good to be true to some, and to some of their opponents at the same time. So you believe that if you're nice to moronic religious terrorists then > moronic religious terrorists will be nice to you. I disagree. > Personally, I am not into angelism, and I realise that countries (and guerrilla movement alike) have armies and intel and weapons for a reason. Yet, this does not mean that all decisions to put them at use, and the ways they are put at use, are all created equal. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Fri Oct 5 15:03:38 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 11:03:38 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Oct 5, 2012 F. C. Moulton wrote: > >> Decade after decade the USA has gone messing around in that part of >>> the world causing all kinds of problems and getting a lot of people angry. >>> Then the politicians are shocked, shocked that a few people decide that >>> terrorism is the best path. >>> >> >> >> So you believe that if you're nice to moronic religious terrorists >> then moronic religious terrorists will be nice to you. I disagree. >> > > > I never said nor did I imply that being "nice to moronic religious > terrorists then moronic religious terrorists will be nice to you". LIKE HELL YOU DIDN'T!! Just look at your quotation above, you said clear as day "that the reason a few people decide that terrorism is the best path" is " that the USA has gone messing around in that part of the world causing all kinds of problems and getting a lot of people angry" and therefore it's foolish that "politicians are shocked" at the occurrence of terrorism. I'm not putting words in your mouth that's what you said in black and white and the implications of that load of stinking Bullshit are crystal clear, terrorism is cause by the USA not being nice enough to terrorists. What other conclusions can one draw from that? Obviously you would prefer not to state it in those words, but dressing it up with pretty language won't change the fact that you're trying to polish a turd. > I am calling you on it. Fine, call me out on it. I can defend my words but you can't defend yours without looking even more foolish. I'm just using logic to see where you're argument leads and if that is not a place you want to go that must be because it's not your policy to use reason before you speak. So don't be shocked if sometimes that policy causes you embarrassment. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Fri Oct 5 15:11:37 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 11:11:37 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <607D32DC-90C0-470F-B2C7-9FC5D08E31A8@me.com> References: <607D32DC-90C0-470F-B2C7-9FC5D08E31A8@me.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 7:00 AM, Omar Rahman wrote: > (Read in the voice of Yoda please.) > Myopically short term pragmatism a new definition of noble is? > Sucked your post does. Like a fine wine a joke ages not. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Fri Oct 5 15:33:42 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 11:33:42 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Oct 5, 2012 Stefano Vaj wrote: >>In late 2001 doing nothing and letting Osama bin Laden sit safely and >> openly in Afghanistan under the protection of the Taliban was simply not a >> viable option and to pretend otherwise is unrealistic. >> > > > Agreed. Not to yield to the temptation of profiting from the opportunity > was not really an option for the powers that be and their ideologues , and > to pretend otherwise is unrealistic. :-) > Any American president that did NOT invade Afghanistan in late 2001 would have been impeached and replaced by one that would within 3 months, and the overwhelming majority of the American people would wonder why it took so long. > This is probably the reason why conspiracy lovers have such a field day > with 9/11. Irrespective of what actually happened, it must have seemed > something too good to be true to some, and to some of their opponents at > the same time. > And because it gave them this fabulous new opportunity the stock market soared right after 911. Oh wait that didn't happen, the stock market dropped like a rock. Sorry to let facts get in the way of a good line. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From moulton at moulton.com Fri Oct 5 16:09:05 2012 From: moulton at moulton.com (F. C. Moulton) Date: Fri, 05 Oct 2012 09:09:05 -0700 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> Message-ID: <506F0621.9010302@moulton.com> John Clark you are misrepresenting me yet again. See below On 10/05/2012 08:03 AM, John Clark wrote: > On Fri, Oct 5, 2012 F. C. Moulton > wrote: > > > >> Decade after decade the USA has gone messing around > in that part of the world causing all kinds of problems and > getting a lot of people angry. Then the politicians are > shocked, shocked that a few people decide that terrorism is > the best path. > > >> So you believe that if you're nice to moronic religious > terrorists then moronic religious terrorists will be nice to > you. I disagree. > > > > I never said nor did I imply that being "nice to moronic religious > terrorists then moronic religious terrorists will be nice to you". > > > LIKE HELL YOU DIDN'T!! Just look at your quotation above, you said > clear as day "that the reason a few people decide that terrorism is the > best path" You put that phrase in quotes as if I wrote it yet are misquoting me. You have removed the first words of my sentence and substituted your own words ('that the reason') and attempted to palm it off as a quote from me. These sorts of misrepresentations and falsehoods are totally unacceptable and are a perfect example of the issue of 'intellectual dishonesty'. I see no reason to engage with you further on this Afghanistan thread since you continue to misquote and misrepresent me. And do not state or imply that I can not support my views because you would be stating yet another falsehood, hopefully you will have enough integrity to not try that canard. Fortunately there are others on this list who can engage in a civilized and honest discussion of Afghanistan and other matters. Fred > is " that the USA has gone messing around in that part of the > world causing all kinds of problems and getting a lot of people angry" > and therefore it's foolish that "politicians are shocked" at the > occurrence of terrorism. I'm not putting words in your mouth that's what > you said in black and white and the implications of that load of > stinking Bullshit are crystal clear, terrorism is cause by the USA not > being nice enough to terrorists. What other conclusions can one draw > from that? Obviously you would prefer not to state it in those words, > but dressing it up with pretty language won't change the fact that > you're trying to polish a turd. > > > I am calling you on it. > > > Fine, call me out on it. I can defend my words but you can't defend > yours without looking even more foolish. I'm just using logic to see > where you're argument leads and if that is not a place you want to go > that must be because it's not your policy to use reason before you > speak. So don't be shocked if sometimes that policy causes you > embarrassment. > > John K Clark > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From spike66 at att.net Fri Oct 5 16:06:45 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 09:06:45 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Dementia Plague In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <015501cda313$6b83d380$428b7a80$@att.net> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK >>... "together comprise the most common forms of dementia at autopsy in community-based studies." ---- >...So, if we are going to cure ageing to give us longer lives, we also have to cure all the diseases associated with ageing...BillK _______________________________________________ Oh my this topic is so very distressing, considering the conclusion I have reluctantly drawn from watching family members go thru the horrifying decline and the resulting severe financial impact to the family. When we look at the fact that one who is in AD will have a quality of life that quickly approaches zero or negative, and threatens to ruin everything you have worked for your entire life, bankrupt one's one family for instance, devouring the funds one's own grandchildren need for college and one's cryonic preservation funds for instance, in return for almost nothing, one is compelled to an uncomfortable conclusion. What one needs at that point is some form of suicide which leaves the brain as intact as possible. Until we come up with some kind of pharmaceutical hope for AD patients, I must conclude that some means of chemically induced final act is one's best hope for promoting that which matters most. Damn. spike From painlord2k at libero.it Fri Oct 5 16:27:11 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Fri, 05 Oct 2012 18:27:11 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> Message-ID: <506F0A5F.2090904@libero.it> Il 04/10/2012 18:23, Stefano Vaj ha scritto: > On 3 October 2012 03:20, Mirco Romanato > wrote: > Elimination of oil will not determinate the fall of Western > Civilization, we can live using nuclear reactors (fission, fusion, > hybrid, LENR or whatever.) > Elimination of oil would not cause China/Japan/Asia to fall either, > they would do the same. > Elimination of oil will cause the fall of Islam. > Hey, this is why enlightened - or at least prevident - muslims (ie, > Iran) are switching to nuclear themselves. :-) They are enriching Uranium to >90%, now. This can only be used for nuclear submarines or nuclear bombs. When you couple this with all the rhetoric about "wiping out Israel", funding terrorism abroad (like Argentina or Iraq), repressing their own people inside, I suggest it would be wise to listen to them seriously. Usually a killer announce his goals to the victim. It is often the victim that doesn't take them seriously enough. Many Muslims remember the prophecy of Mohammad about how Rome will fall after Constantinople to them. Maybe Italy is not high in their bullet list, but it is in their bullet list. All the world is in their bullet list. Then, if Iran does what it say it will do, I suggest they will not be much deterred from doing it again to others if they profited from the first. Then, obviously, all other governments around the world will be forced to start their own nuclear program for self-defense. Saudi Arabia will lease a load of nukes from Pakistan, Taiwan and Japan will become nuclear powers in a matter of months; Brazil, Argentina would need little more. It is no good when these weapons start proliferating, because the chance someone use them increase considerably and also the chance one fall in the wrong hands. Then we will be in the Wretchard Second Conjecture scenario and government will be forced to do awful choices under the pressure of their people's pitchforks. Mirco From johnkclark at gmail.com Fri Oct 5 17:28:05 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 13:28:05 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <506F0621.9010302@moulton.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <506F0621.9010302@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Oct 5, 2012 F. C. Moulton wrote: > You put that phrase in quotes as if I wrote it yet are misquoting me. You > have removed the first words of my sentence and substituted your own words > ('that the reason') and attempted to palm it off as a quote from me. The words I removed are "politicians are shocked shocked" which added nothing, but you're right, I should have put the quotation marks 3 words to the right, however it in no way changes the meaning of the quotation; the meaning is that "the USA has gone messing around in that part of the world causing all kinds of problems and getting a lot of people angry" is the reason that "a few people decide that terrorism is the best path". How else can one interpret it? And I might add that I did include your entire quote and do so again: " Decade after decade the USA has gone messing around in that part of the world causing all kinds of problems and getting a lot of people angry. Then the politicians are shocked, shocked that a few people decide that terrorism is the best path." John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From charlie.stross at gmail.com Fri Oct 5 17:15:52 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 18:15:52 +0100 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <506F0A5F.2090904@libero.it> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <506F0A5F.2090904@libero.it> Message-ID: <26E05096-2901-4A84-A2AD-74D02E9C398B@gmail.com> On 5 Oct 2012, at 17:27, Mirco Romanato wrote: > > They are enriching Uranium to >90%, now. Source, please. (And it had better not be MEMRI or some other sock-puppet for Benny Netenyahu.) -- Charlie From lubkin at unreasonable.com Fri Oct 5 18:12:36 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Fri, 05 Oct 2012 14:12:36 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> Message-ID: <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> I'm going to get in the middle of the dispute between John and Fred just to the point of noting the fallacy in John's reasoning about Fred. Fred wrote: >"Decade after decade the USA has gone messing around in that part of >the world causing all kinds of problems and getting a lot of people >angry. Then the politicians are shocked, shocked that a few people >decide that terrorism is the best path." This does not imply that Fred advocates being "nice to moronic religious terrorists." There are several alternatives. Since Fred is libertarian, I suspect his thought is non-interventionism. Let each country deal with its own problems, including militaristic neighbors, and engage in free trade with everyone. And he postulates that if we stayed out of other countries, no one would have any particular reason to attack us. Essentially what Ron Paul has been advocating. We would be neither nice to moronic religious terrorists nor attacking them because it has nothing to do with us. Just as the Tamil Tigers, the RIRA, and Shining Path are not our problem. It's not the only way to see the matter, even as a libertarian. Some of our extropian friends are more internationalist libertarians, and want to free the world. If you're an anarcho-capitalist, then national boundaries should be irrelevant to the question of people being enslaved, tortured, and killed. If you'd intercede in defense of others here, say coming on a woman being raped, then why not to free the Afghani people from the Taliban or the Iraqis from Saddam? Meanwhile, seeing the worthiness of intercession in Afghanistan and Iraq doesn't imply that one supports the methods taken or advocated by someone else. I've suggested a few pinpoint applications of violence that might have been more effective than what US administrations have pursued since 9||11. There are several legitimate positions on these questions. And calling someone names for disagreeing with you does nothing to further an argument. This list should be about civility, rigor, and clarity. And mind-blowing cool ideas you can't find anywhere else. -- David. From johnkclark at gmail.com Fri Oct 5 20:35:47 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 16:35:47 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Oct 5, 2012 David Lubkin wrote: > Fred wrote: > > "Decade after decade the USA has gone messing around in that part of the >> world causing all kinds of problems and getting a lot of people angry. >> Then the politicians are shocked, shocked that a few people decide that >> terrorism is the best path." >> > > This does not imply that Fred advocates being "nice to moronic religious > terrorists." > I rather think it does. > >There are several alternatives. Since Fred is libertarian, I suspect his > thought is non-interventionism. Yes, his thought is do nothing no matter what, and that policy would be suicidal for Western culture and probably for him personally. I'm a libertarian too but being a libertarian does not turn one into a idiot, or at least it shouldn't; libertarian or not I know when somebody is trying to kill me. > > he postulates that if we stayed out of other countries, no one would > have any particular reason to attack us. > Yes exactly as I said, he postulates that if you're nice to moronic religious terrorists then moronic religious terrorists will be nice to you. > We would be neither nice to moronic religious terrorists nor attacking > them because it has nothing to do with us. Nothing to do with us? Osama bin Laden made it very clear in February 1998 that it did have something to do with us when he said: "To kill the Americans and their allies, civilians and military, is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it" And 6 months later he made it clear he wasn't just talk when he bombed 2 American embassies in Africa and killed 223 people, and 2 years after that when he attacked and nearly sunk the USS Cole and killed 17 sailors and said to his son "the pieces of the bodies of infidels were flying like dust particles. If you would have seen it with your own eyes, you would have been very pleased, and your heart would have been filled with joy", or a year after that when he murdered 3000 American civilians during 911. And a government that was openly protecting Osama bin Laden, as Afghanistan was in 2001, had something very much to do with us. John K Clark > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From protokol2020 at gmail.com Fri Oct 5 21:15:00 2012 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 23:15:00 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: I just wonder, is it a masochism of some Americans when they claim: "We should not intervene in Afganistan"? For a Christ sake, what should you do? Nothing? I, as an Eastern European I would understand if you'd nuked Kabul. It was a deal with the Soviet Union, that if they had done the same thing in let say 1985, killing that many Americans, you'd nuke Russians, And Russians nuked you back. Was that not the case? Is it a masochism or something worse from guys like Moulton? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From moulton at moulton.com Fri Oct 5 22:42:28 2012 From: moulton at moulton.com (F. C. Moulton) Date: Fri, 05 Oct 2012 15:42:28 -0700 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <506F6254.4080701@moulton.com> David If you are considering responding to John Clark I would suggest against it. The likely outcome will just be more misrepresentations. It appears to me that John Clark has become the Troll of the Extropian email list. One long time honored method of dealing with a Troll is to ignore them and then either they will leave or more hopefully reform their ways and drop their trollish behavior. Fred On 10/05/2012 01:35 PM, John Clark wrote: > On Fri, Oct 5, 2012 David Lubkin > wrote: > > > Fred wrote: > > "Decade after decade the USA has gone messing around in that > part of the world causing all kinds of problems and getting a > lot of people angry. Then the politicians are shocked, shocked > that a few people decide that terrorism is the best path." > > > This does not imply that Fred advocates being "nice to moronic > religious terrorists." > > > I rather think it does. > > > >There are several alternatives. Since Fred is libertarian, I > suspect his thought is non-interventionism. > > > Yes, his thought is do nothing no matter what, and that policy would be > suicidal for Western culture and probably for him personally. I'm a > libertarian too but being a libertarian does not turn one into a idiot, > or at least it shouldn't; libertarian or not I know when somebody is > trying to kill me. > > > > he postulates that if we stayed out of other countries, no one > would have any particular reason to attack us. > > > Yes exactly as I said, he postulates that if you're nice to moronic > religious terrorists then moronic religious terrorists will be nice to you. > > > We would be neither nice to moronic religious terrorists nor > attacking them because it has nothing to do with us. > > > Nothing to do with us? Osama bin Laden made it very clear in February > 1998 that it did have something to do with us when he said: > > "To kill the Americans and their allies, civilians and military, is an > individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which > it is possible to do it" > > And 6 months later he made it clear he wasn't just talk when he bombed 2 > American embassies in Africa and killed 223 people, and 2 years after > that when he attacked and nearly sunk the USS Cole and killed 17 sailors > and said to his son "the pieces of the bodies of infidels were flying > like dust particles. If you would have seen it with your own eyes, you > would have been very pleased, and your heart would have been filled with > joy",or a year after that when he murdered 3000 American civilians > during 911. And a government that was openly protecting Osama bin Laden, > as Afghanistan was in 2001, had something very much to do with us. > > John K Clark > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From moulton at moulton.com Fri Oct 5 23:25:19 2012 From: moulton at moulton.com (F. C. Moulton) Date: Fri, 05 Oct 2012 16:25:19 -0700 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> On 10/05/2012 02:15 PM, Tomaz Kristan wrote: > > I, as an Eastern European I would understand if you'd nuked Kabul. > Let us think just for a moment how horrible it would have been to nuke Kabul in 2001. Kabul is the name of a city, a metropolitan area and a province. Depending on which definition is used the population numbers range from 500,000 to 3,000,000 although exact values are difficult to determine. For simple numbers use a population of 1,000,000 and consider that probably at least 25% are early teens or younger. In the event of a nuclear attack most would die due to blast effects, radiation and other factors. Think about these 250,000 youngsters dying; some in horrible agony. For what? Exactly what possible reason would there have been to murder 250,000 youngsters? And what about all of the rest of the population? I understand that you (Tomaz) did not say one way or the other about your feelings concerning a nuclear attack on Kabul. Since this is the Extropian list I will assume that there is no list member who would say that in 2001 the USA should have carried out a nuclear attack on Kabul. To advocate such a nuclear attack would be inhumane and foolish as well as against Extropian values. Fred From kellycoinguy at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 03:20:03 2012 From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson) Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2012 21:20:03 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Leveraging temporary income In-Reply-To: <201210032149.q93Lneni000690@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <201210031734.q93HYKGI008282@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506CA82F.30303@libero.it> <201210032149.q93Lneni000690@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 3, 2012 at 3:49 PM, David Lubkin wrote: > Or narrow it down to an individual, since we're mostly individualists. > You are given $1 million after taxes now, or when you are/were 25. > What would you do with it to maximize its long-term benefit to you -- > Go to school? Invest it? Start a business? Relocate somewhere you > can live off it indefinitely? Use $100K for survival training and > equipment? David, When I had that exact opportunity, I started what amounted to a home based business proposition centered around assisting underprivileged children. Unfortunately, that proposition failed long term, and now I have nothing at all to show for it. I guess the point of sharing the story is to point out that just because you were successful once does not mean that similar success will befall you the second time. I suppose the other take home lesson is "don't put all your eggs in one basket", and also that choosing the right business partner is absolutely critical to your long term success in business. The other lesson is don't go into business when the government has any role in determining your success or failure. -Kelly From protokol2020 at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 06:06:46 2012 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 08:06:46 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> Message-ID: It would be 100 times more horrible than 9-11 attack was. It would be be 1000 times or more less horrible than a nuclear war between US and Russia which is still possible this very moment, as a result of a mistake, at least. It is very good and noble, not respond to a 9-11 kind of attack with a nuclear bomb. But asking not to respond at all, its quite silly. And this is, what you are standing for, it seems. Why? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From protokol2020 at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 07:07:09 2012 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 09:07:09 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> Message-ID: Put it another way! Chines/Russians... know, that if a fraction of there government attacked the Capitol Hill, and there governments backed the perpetrators of the did, they can count on a nuke, probably more. Not necessary, but very likely. Also. If one attacks Kremlin and destroys it very much, he can count to see how powerful those Russian atomic bombs are - first hand. I guess they are quite powerful. It is called MAD and gave us uneasy peace for many decades. Excluding lesser powers, like Taliban Afghanistan from the MAD agreement is a very noble thing, of course. But just let them go, with several diplomatic notes and a few UN resolutions is a silly idea. Pretending there is no war, maintaining the "peace" - how we can call it? I call it mad. Not MAD, just mad. Still some people here advocates it and pretend to be noble. Like it was a minimum view to stay on this list. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From moulton at moulton.com Sat Oct 6 08:39:30 2012 From: moulton at moulton.com (F. C. Moulton) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 01:39:30 -0700 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> Message-ID: <506FEE42.2000406@moulton.com> On 10/05/2012 11:06 PM, Tomaz Kristan wrote: > It would be 100 times more horrible than 9-11 attack was. It would be be > 1000 times or more less horrible than a nuclear war between US and > Russia which is still possible this very moment, as a result of a > mistake, at least. > > It is very good and noble, not respond to a 9-11 kind of attack with a > nuclear bomb. But asking not to respond at all, its quite silly. > > And this is, what you are standing for, it seems. Why? I never said nor did I ever imply that my position was "not to respond at all". To Tomaz I am going to cut a little bit of slack this one time because it appears that English is probably not the first language. I want to emphasize that I have been subject to misrepresentation and misquotation that should not be happening on this list and I am getting really annoyed ` Fred From kgh1kgh2 at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 09:06:12 2012 From: kgh1kgh2 at gmail.com (Kevin G Haskell) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 05:06:12 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Off topic or on? Group about Cryonics and Beauty, or not? Message-ID: To this fantastic group of intellectuals: This is an essential group of thinkers regarding Transhumanism, etc. But can we please try to restrain our comments to our two main points of the groups, which are: Effective and widespread cryonics at an affordable price for everyone and secondly, how to maintain and even vastly improve beauty and art...artful beauty, if you will, especially as it pertains to youthfulness? I am in quite a few groups that are related to Transhumanism, and to Singularitarianism. I have to say that this group is falling into a similar trap that they do, and that is to discuss "all' of the issues that pertain to both of those major issues. Here, doesn't it make more sense that we focus like lasers on Max's goal of a superior, cheaper, more widespread version of Vanilla Sky, and second, that we focus on Natasha's focus that the Transhumanist future make new humanity beautiful and filled with style, no matter what their financial circumstance? I don't mean to stir up anything here, I just mean that Facebook has made so many groups open to everything, and that this group might be better off focusing on what Max and Natasha are trying to keep it focused on: Widespread, effective cryonics (Max) and widespread, creative, and cutting edge H+ style and design (Natasha.) Best, Kevin George Haskell -- * Tweet me on Twitter! - @*KevinGHaskell -- * Tweet me on Twitter! - @*KevinGHaskell -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From protokol2020 at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 09:50:31 2012 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 11:50:31 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <506FEE42.2000406@moulton.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <506FEE42.2000406@moulton.com> Message-ID: So you don't agree with this Charlie Stross' quote: > It's as if *nobody at all* had studied the history of previous military interventions in Afghanistan. By which I'm not just talking about the Soviets; it's like nobody had heard of the Anglo-Afghan Wars, much less the grisly fate of General Elphinstone's Expedition during the 1842 Retreat from Kabul -- the worst defeat ever inflicted on the British Empire. > It's just an all-around Bad Place to Go. Always has been. Even Alexander the Great had second thoughts about trying to occupy Afghanistan. You do, or you don't? (Don't mind my English, and don't be annoyed, just give me a direct answer, please!) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Oct 6 12:23:19 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 14:23:19 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Leveraging temporary income In-Reply-To: <201210032149.q93Lneni000690@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <201210031734.q93HYKGI008282@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506CA82F.30303@libero.it> <201210032149.q93Lneni000690@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <507022B7.300@libero.it> Il 03/10/2012 23:49, David Lubkin ha scritto: > I asked in "Re: [ExI] riots again": > >> A general question about jurisdictions that have substantial >> oil revenues (Kuwait, Venezuela, Alberta, Alaska, etc.) is are >> they doing anything useful for their future prosperity with their >> current revenue. Beyond overseas investment into other >> businesses, like buying Marks & Sparks. > > Mirco replied: > >> They are trying, sometimes. >> But I don't understand how they could succeed when their society, >> because of Islam, make free inquiry and innovation a capital sin. > > Venezuela, Alberta, and Alaska do not have Islamic societies. > My question is about *all* oil-rich jurisdictions. More generally, > what can any society do with a temporary (years or decades, > not longer) surge of cash to create a sustainable advantage? > Or narrow it down to an individual, since we're mostly individualists. > You are given $1 million after taxes now, or when you are/were 25. > What would you do with it to maximize its long-term benefit to you -- > Go to school? Invest it? Start a business? Relocate somewhere you > can live off it indefinitely? Use $100K for survival training and > equipment? > > (I chose $10^6 specifically because it's a useful chunk, but it's > not 10^8 or 10^10, where the issue is how to change the world > with it, not improve your personal lot. And I already posted that > question a few years ago.) What I would do is improving myself to start to think like a rich person, but this is what all of us should do anyway. Many don't do it and albeit they are wealthy because they have a good job, they are not really rich. When the job go, their wealth go with it. The same is with oil wealth and lottery winners. Rich people is rich because they think in the right way. We saw some group of people becoming rich, losing it all, relocating, working and becoming affluent again. If not them, their family. Why these people / groups become rich notwithstanding the reversals when others stay consistently poor? And this is not something deeply linked with IQ or education. Apparently they are more adaptable and consistently find a way to work / save / improve and always have a positive cash flow. As for society, I would reform their social structure to enhance and improve trust, private property right and freedom. They should do it anyway. But in this way, they will be able to use more efficiently any money surplus they have. Mirco From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Oct 6 13:25:02 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 15:25:02 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <26E05096-2901-4A84-A2AD-74D02E9C398B@gmail.com> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <506F0A5F.2090904@libero.it> <26E05096-2901-4A84-A2AD-74D02E9C398B@gmail.com> Message-ID: <5070312E.7080603@libero.it> Il 05/10/2012 19:15, Charlie Stross ha scritto: > On 5 Oct 2012, at 17:27, Mirco Romanato wrote: >> They are enriching Uranium to >90%, now. > Source, please. > (And it had better not be MEMRI or some other sock-puppet for Benny Netenyahu.) Do you prefer sock-suckers for IRI? They are a plenty. http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/6712.htm#.UGr2m94qu8Q.twitter Well, the good intentions are there, just they are probing the air to see what the western say about and will do about it. Apparently they are backing from their declarations of intent. But who know their are telling the truth? Mirco From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Oct 6 14:01:23 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 16:01:23 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> Message-ID: <507039B3.4030106@libero.it> Il 04/10/2012 18:43, John Clark ha scritto: > On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 7:00 AM, Omar Rahman > wrote: > > Astounding! How exactly is US policy in Afghanistan noble? > Propping up the corrupt 'mayor of Kabul' is noble? > Yes. The government in Afghanistan has been brutal and corrupt since.... > since forever, nobody thought that was going to change anytime soon, but > in the immediate aftermath of 911 many, including me, thought that > replacing a brutal and corrupt administration that was openly protecting > Osama bin Laden with a brutal and corrupt administration that was not > was a noble thing to do. And it is just untenable to expect the USA to > allow Osama bin Laden and the Taliban to thumb his nose at them > indefinitely. Well, if the US were there to do "nation building" they could have done it following the Ann Coulter policy. This would have solved the "Muslim Extremists" problem. By now there would be a lot more Christian Extremists and no one would give a damn if they were killed. At least, when they were killed in Serbia and Kossovo the US MSM was ecstatic. Mirco From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Oct 6 14:14:28 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 16:14:28 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <50703CC4.4090204@libero.it> Il 05/10/2012 23:15, Tomaz Kristan ha scritto: > I just wonder, is it a masochism of some Americans when they claim: "We > should not intervene in Afganistan"? > > For a Christ sake, what should you do? Nothing? > > I, as an Eastern European I would understand if you'd nuked Kabul. And me, as a western European, would support this position. > It was a deal with the Soviet Union, that if they had done the same > thing in let say 1985, killing that many Americans, you'd nuke Russians, > And Russians nuked you back. Was that not the case? > > Is it a masochism or something worse from guys like Moulton? They are all gays with someone else ass (literally translated from Italian). I hope the translation don't need any explanation. Mirco From johnkclark at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 14:32:05 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 10:32:05 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <506F6254.4080701@moulton.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6254.4080701@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Oct 5, 2012 , F. C. Moulton wrote: > It appears to me that John Clark has become the Troll of the Extropian > email list. Troll? Mr. Moultin, I've been on this list continuously since 1993. How long have you been on? > I never said nor did I ever imply that my position was "not to respond at > all". > I am delighted that you think the USA should have done something in response to 911, but I wonder what exactly you had in mind. Jeff Davis, who has views similar to yours regarding Afghanistan, implied that even economic sanctions was being too mean to Iraq when it invaded Kuwait in 1990; so would a severe tongue lashing to Afghanistan after 911 have been OK, or would that still be too mean by causing needless emotional trauma to the poor leaders of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda? > I am getting really annoyed Oh no, I'm causing more emotional trauma! I am devastated that Fred C Moultin is getting really annoyed just as I was devastated that Jeff Davis is pissed off at me. I'm doubly cursed and my grief knows no bounds. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Oct 6 14:55:16 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 16:55:16 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> Message-ID: <50704654.7050309@libero.it> Il 06/10/2012 01:25, F. C. Moulton ha scritto: > On 10/05/2012 02:15 PM, Tomaz Kristan wrote: >> I, as an Eastern European I would understand if you'd nuked Kabul. > Let us think just for a moment how horrible it would have been to nuke > Kabul in 2001. What would have you done after 9/11? Just state this. > Kabul is the name of a city, a metropolitan area and a > province. Depending on which definition is used the population numbers > range from 500,000 to 3,000,000 although exact values are difficult to > determine. For simple numbers use a population of 1,000,000 and > consider that probably at least 25% are early teens or younger. In the > event of a nuclear attack most would die due to blast effects, radiation > and other factors. Think about these 250,000 youngsters dying; some in > horrible agony. For what? Exactly what possible reason would there > have been to murder 250,000 youngsters? And what about all of the rest > of the population? Asimov wrote "Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right." The reason to kill so many people? So there will be no more 9/11 (or whatever in Europe). There would not be the reasons to invade and occupy Afghanistan and Iraq. No reason for DHS, no reasons for a lot of laws allowing restriction of freedoms , no expenditures on long wars, more money for the children in schools. Or using he words of Heinlein: Morals ? all correct moral laws ? derive from the instinct to survive. Moral behavior is survival behavior above the individual level. Correct morality can only be derived from what man is ? not from what do-gooders and well-meaning aunt Nellies would like him to be. > I understand that you (Tomaz) did not say one way or the other about > your feelings concerning a nuclear attack on Kabul. Since this is the > Extropian list I will assume that there is no list member who would say > that in 2001 the USA should have carried out a nuclear attack on Kabul. Hello. Look here. > To advocate such a nuclear attack would be inhumane and foolish as well > as against Extropian values. Well, Extropians want to be better than humans. And sometimes something apparently inhumane and foolish in the short term is simply the most human thing to do. Just depend on the time scale you factor the returns. Mirco From charlie.stross at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 15:02:32 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 16:02:32 +0100 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <50704654.7050309@libero.it> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> Message-ID: <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> On 6 Oct 2012, at 15:55, Mirco Romanato wrote: > > Asimov wrote > "Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right." > > The reason to kill so many people? > So there will be no more 9/11 (or whatever in Europe). If you want to reduce death tolls, focus on self-driving cars. Auto accidents kill more people in the USA every month than 9/11 killed as a one-off. Worldwide it's the equivalent of something between the Congo war and the Vietnam war every year. A first world war sized death toll every five or six years. -- Charlie From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Oct 6 15:14:02 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 17:14:02 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <607D32DC-90C0-470F-B2C7-9FC5D08E31A8@me.com> References: <607D32DC-90C0-470F-B2C7-9FC5D08E31A8@me.com> Message-ID: <50704ABA.7050406@libero.it> Il 05/10/2012 11:26, Omar Rahman ha scritto: > >> On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 7:00 AM, Omar Rahman > > wrote: > (Read in the voice of Yoda please.) > Myopically short term pragmatism a new definition of noble is? Yoda, the Jedi Master that never detected Palpatine. And the other Jedi were not better. "Look here, I have an Army of Clones ready for you. It is a bargain" > (Again Yoda.) > A libertarian you are? Trade in free will impairing chemicals, have > nothing against you do? Master Yoda, I never see you complaining when I kill people and manipulate their minds. > Personal freedom and and property rights you believe in, a contradiction > not see you? Better I profit from them than the Empire profit from them. ANd, anyway, the clients are more probable to be Imperials, so I love to be paid to help them to kill themselves. I know, I'm a bit lazy. > Only in military operations intelligence gathered was? Of oxymoron never > heard have you? I think I'm hearing one oxy-moron now. Do you think there are nitro-morons, hydro-morons and carbon-morons also? > (It's a theme....) > Rely on the power of the force must they have? Master Yoda, you and all Jedi relied on the power of the Force and Palpatine fucked you with the power of the mind. >> So tell it to all the people that >> right after 911 said we could expect a attack of similar scale in a matter >> of weeks if not days; its been over 11 years and still nothing. > > (...that I shall continue...) > Fear mongers they were? To the dark side they took us? What about that Army of Clones again? Mirco From protokol2020 at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 15:17:25 2012 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 17:17:25 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> Message-ID: > If you want to reduce death tolls, focus on self-driving cars. Instead of answering terror attacks, just mend you cars? What stupid advice is that? With or without those attacks, cars are more and more safe. (Abandoning the cars, if you suggest that, would mean MANY MORE deaths per year.) OTOH, thinking like "well, they have killed few thousand people, it's not that bad, leave them alone and focus on the cars!" - would be an open invitation for Osama's gang, to repeat the attack and to enlarge them until they could claim victory in this war, they have started. The cars wouldn't be needed no more. Afgani lifestyle everywhere. What kind of a perverse logic is this? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From charlie.stross at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 15:42:08 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 16:42:08 +0100 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> Message-ID: On 6 Oct 2012, at 16:17, Tomaz Kristan wrote: > > If you want to reduce death tolls, focus on self-driving cars. > > Instead of answering terror attacks, just mend you cars? As over 90% of vehicle accidents are due to human error, that won't fix the problem. Which is that shaved apes and high powered machinery don't mix. (And your grasp of statistics strikes me as being as poor as your grip of geopolitical realities. Hint: the Taliban are not the Soviet Union. They and their friends are only a threat to the west insofar as certain interest groups over here need an enemy to point the Two Minute Hate at. I'll grant you they're hateful and unattractive, but a threat? Not really.) -- Charlie From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Sat Oct 6 15:34:47 2012 From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 08:34:47 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <506F0A5F.2090904@libero.it> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <506F0A5F.2090904@libero.it> Message-ID: <1349537687.67168.YahooMailNeo@web160503.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> ----- Original Message ----- > From: Mirco Romanato > To: ExI chat list > Cc: > Sent: Friday, October 5, 2012 9:27 AM > Subject: Re: [ExI] riots again > > Il 04/10/2012 18:23, Stefano Vaj ha scritto: >> On 3 October 2012 03:20, Mirco Romanato > > wrote: > >> ? ? Elimination of oil will not determinate the fall of Western >> ? ? Civilization, we can live using nuclear reactors (fission, fusion, >> ? ? hybrid, LENR or whatever.) >> ? ? Elimination of oil would not cause China/Japan/Asia to fall either, >> ? ? they would do the same. >> ? ? Elimination of oil will cause the fall of Islam. > >> Hey, this is why enlightened - or at least prevident - muslims (ie, >> Iran) are switching to nuclear themselves. :-) > > They are enriching Uranium to >90%, now. > This can only be used for nuclear submarines or nuclear bombs. > When you couple this with all the rhetoric about "wiping out Israel", > funding terrorism abroad (like Argentina or Iraq), repressing their own people > inside, I suggest it would be wise to listen to them seriously. I am unable to take Iran's threat in this regard any more seriously than I could take the Soviet's threats under Kruschev: "We will bury you!" At the end of the day, Iranians love their children too and mutually assured destruction is not incomprehensible to the average?Muslim no matter how backwards they?are accused of being. After?all you don't see?wealthy family men and?Imams strapping suicide vests on themselves for the glory of Allah.?Mostly just?lonely single guys who have a choice between being martyrs or mules.? ? > Usually a killer announce his goals to the victim. It is often the victim that > doesn't take them seriously enough. Many Muslims remember the prophecy of > Mohammad about how Rome will fall after Constantinople to them. Maybe Italy is > not high in their bullet list, but it is in their bullet list. All the world is > in their bullet list. When it comes to life or death?there?are no real rules, just strategies and?adaptation. Or not.? > Then, if Iran does what it say it will do, I suggest they will not be much > deterred from doing it again to others if they profited from the first. Then, > obviously, all other governments around the world will be forced to start their > own nuclear program for self-defense. Well that only stands to reason. The history of the 20th century conclusively shows that no nation is taken seriously unless they have nukes. Which is consequently why North Korea would rather have nukes than food. If you can't figure out how to get along in world that is universally armed, how could you possibly survive?nanofabrication? Maybe the?Great Filter?of the Fermi Paradox is simply the meme: "Trust is not an option!" ? > Saudi Arabia will lease a load of nukes from Pakistan, Taiwan and Japan will > become nuclear powers in a matter of months; Brazil, Argentina would need little > more. Well if?you see this as?inevitable then the U.S. should auction off all it's old outdated nukes to all the countries that still want them with the proceeds going to pay off the national debt, missile defense, space colonization, and possibly more modern nukes. Neutron Bombs and whatnot.?This is surely a more sublime strategy than borrowing money from China to invade every country that is (not so) secretly researching nukes.? ? ? > It is no good when these weapons start proliferating, because the chance someone > use them increase considerably and also the chance one fall in the wrong hands. You mean the kind with opposable thumbs? It's a bit late for that. ;-) > Then we will be in the Wretchard Conjecture Second scenario and government will > be forced to do awful choices under the pressure of their people's > pitchforks. Now that I have read them, I don't neccessarily buy Wretchard's?Conjectures but they too are a potential resolution to the conflict. If Secular Humanism and Islam cannot coexist, then they won't for long. Just remember that muslims love their children too.? ? Stuart LaForge "Prisons are built with stones of Law. Brothels with the bricks of religion." - William Blake From anders at aleph.se Sat Oct 6 15:00:25 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 16:00:25 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Leveraging temporary income In-Reply-To: <201210040055.q940tKqo022807@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <201210031734.q93HYKGI008282@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506CA82F.30303@libero.it> <201210032149.q93Lneni000690@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506CD82D.4090808@aleph.se> <201210040055.q940tKqo022807@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <50704789.9090803@aleph.se> On 04/10/2012 01:55, David Lubkin wrote: > Anders wrote: > >> Check out Norway. They are investing most of the money in big funds. >> Some of the surplus is used for infrastructure - the country has some >> of the most impressive bridges and tunnels imaginable (although the >> muncipalities - who often lack money - skimp on lights in the lesser >> used tunnels). > > That doesn't surprise me. I was very impressed with the good sense > and practicality of the people when I was there twenty years ago. You know us Scandinavians. We plan our freedom very carefully and technocratically. Of course, as a Swede I should probably make some joking/snide remark about the stupidity of Norwegians, it is the done thing on both sides since the 1905 secession. But since I live in the UK and more identify as a European I don't think I will bother. :-) Saving money for a rainy day is not always the optimal solution. There is a difference between stocks and flows, and usually it is better to increase the flow of money than the stock (if you have no reason to suspect the flow to be unstable). Investing in education (or good investments) is a bit like investing in a better future flow. But the more uncertain the future looks, the more important it is to diversity the investments - it could simply be that Norway will make much more from its Arctic and large-scale engineering expertise than from the oil stock once stuff really gets going above the polar circle. And as Robin Hanson suggested, the first upload hypercities/datacenters might reside in Canada or Scandinavia. Conversely, a global financial crash might make the Norwegian funds useless paper overnight (actually, they have of course invested in a lot of other things too). -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Oxford Martin School Faculty of Philosophy Oxford University From protokol2020 at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 16:26:16 2012 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 18:26:16 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <1349537687.67168.YahooMailNeo@web160503.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <506F0A5F.2090904@libero.it> <1349537687.67168.YahooMailNeo@web160503.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: > the Taliban are not the Soviet Union. Of course not. And they are not China as well. We know that, what's your point? Oh, I see: > They and their friends are only a threat to the west insofar as certain interest groups over here need an enemy to point the Two Minute Hate at. They are not a real power at all? Just an imaginary foe? > I'll grant you they're hateful and unattractive, but a threat? Not really. Your grants worth nothing to those, who were already killed by them. P.S. It would be funny, if it was not grotesque. Your claims, of course. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From protokol2020 at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 16:28:16 2012 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 18:28:16 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <506F0A5F.2090904@libero.it> <1349537687.67168.YahooMailNeo@web160503.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: Sorry it was for Charlie Stross, not avantguardian. Apologize to him. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From charlie.stross at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 16:45:54 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 17:45:54 +0100 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <506F0A5F.2090904@libero.it> <1349537687.67168.YahooMailNeo@web160503.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <62B13FDB-226B-42A9-A03A-78A9E748B5CD@gmail.com> On 6 Oct 2012, at 17:26, Tomaz Kristan wrote: > > the Taliban are not the Soviet Union. > > Of course not. And they are not China as well. We know that, what's your point? > > Oh, I see: > > > They and their friends are only a threat to the west insofar as certain interest groups over here need an enemy to point the Two Minute Hate at. > > They are not a real power at all? Just an imaginary foe? Pretty much. They're poverty-stricken bumpkins from one of the poorest countries on the earth, with a total population about equal to the Netherlands. The entire Arab world is, again, pretty damn poor -- especially if you subtract the oil. They're not building ICBMs. If you want a threat, you should consider Pakistan -- which has been massively radicalized by persistent US support for anti-communist hardliners ever since General Zia's coup against Bhutto, and which *does* have nukes and IRBMs. But again, Pakistan has those nukes and IRBMs because of India; the west just wouldn't be much of a priority for them if it wasn't for the terror drones and the troops in their holy places (Arabia, notably -- same thing that got Osama bin Laden riled up in the 90s). To put it in perspective, the current US military budget, of around $600Bn a year, exceeds the GDP of Afghanistan by a factor of 30; it's about the same size as the entire GDP of Iran, and exceeds the Iranian military budget by a factor of nearly 70. They're paper tigers. The only way they *can* hurt us is via terrorism. -- Charlie From spike66 at att.net Sat Oct 6 16:34:57 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 09:34:57 -0700 Subject: [ExI] no more riots again please, was RE: riots again Message-ID: <006c01cda3e0$86630310$93290930$@att.net> My friends, your humble neighborhood moderator considers the entire riots again thread to have worn threadbare and tiresome. I ask for a voluntary cease and desist forthwith, even if you feel some yahoo has delivered you a personal insult and has not clarified, or even if you still have insults you wish to deliver. I ask that we let it go, and get on to other more interesting and focused matters, ja? Thanks! Your Humble but Brilliant Servant spike From johnkclark at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 17:01:14 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 13:01:14 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 Charlie Stross wrote: > If you want to reduce death tolls, focus on self-driving cars. Auto > accidents kill more people in the USA every month than 9/11 killed as a > one-off. > True, but imagine if after 9/11 the USA had done nothing to the organization that did it nor to the government that protected it, imagine if they had implicitly said that you can attack the USA at will and there would be no negative consequences of any sort; there would have been a 9/11 every month or something worse, possibly much much worse. An attack of the magnitude of 9/11 simply cannot go unanswered and to expect something otherwise is just silly. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From charlie.stross at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 17:01:46 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 18:01:46 +0100 Subject: [ExI] no more riots again please, was RE: riots again In-Reply-To: <006c01cda3e0$86630310$93290930$@att.net> References: <006c01cda3e0$86630310$93290930$@att.net> Message-ID: <060EF08C-CEDC-474A-A1C6-22247A1329AD@gmail.com> On 6 Oct 2012, at 17:34, spike wrote: > > My friends, your humble neighborhood moderator considers the entire riots > again thread to have worn threadbare and tiresome. I ask for a voluntary > cease and desist forthwith, even if you feel some yahoo has delivered you a > personal insult and has not clarified, or even if you still have insults you > wish to deliver. I ask that we let it go, and get on to other more > interesting and focused matters, ja? Sounds like a good idea to me; it's not a terribly extropian topic anyway! -- Charlie From protokol2020 at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 17:03:52 2012 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 19:03:52 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <62B13FDB-226B-42A9-A03A-78A9E748B5CD@gmail.com> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <506F0A5F.2090904@libero.it> <1349537687.67168.YahooMailNeo@web160503.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> <62B13FDB-226B-42A9-A03A-78A9E748B5CD@gmail.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM, Charlie Stross wrote: > > On 6 Oct 2012, at 17:26, Tomaz Kristan wrote: > > > > the Taliban are not the Soviet Union. > > > > Of course not. And they are not China as well. We know that, what's your > point? > > > > Oh, I see: > > > > > They and their friends are only a threat to the west insofar as > certain interest groups over here need an enemy to point the Two Minute > Hate at. > > > > They are not a real power at all? Just an imaginary foe? > > Pretty much. They're poverty-stricken bumpkins from one of the poorest > countries on the earth, with a total population about equal to the > Netherlands. The entire Arab world is, again, pretty damn poor -- > especially if you subtract the oil. They're not building ICBMs. If you want > a threat, you should consider Pakistan -- which has been massively > radicalized by persistent US support for anti-communist hardliners ever > since General Zia's coup against Bhutto, and which *does* have nukes and > IRBMs. But again, Pakistan has those nukes and IRBMs because of India; the > west just wouldn't be much of a priority for them if it wasn't for the > terror drones and the troops in their holy places (Arabia, notably -- same > thing that got Osama bin Laden riled up in the 90s). > > To put it in perspective, the current US military budget, of around $600Bn > a year, exceeds the GDP of Afghanistan by a factor of 30; it's about the > same size as the entire GDP of Iran, and exceeds the Iranian military > budget by a factor of nearly 70. > > They're paper tigers. The only way they *can* hurt us is via terrorism. > > > -- Charlie > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > Downplaying a threat and underestimating a foe who regularly kills you solders is just STUPID. But the Talibans must be happy having West internally divided. With a strong faction of those in the West, who say ... "we are just imagining a danger, there is none!". Russia, now a semi democratic country, knows that they would get some nukes, had they perpetuate some 9-11. Arabs knows, that they wouldn't. Even if they somehow succeed to repeat 9-11. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From charlie.stross at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 17:18:16 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 18:18:16 +0100 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> Message-ID: On 6 Oct 2012, at 18:01, John Clark wrote: > On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 Charlie Stross wrote: > > > If you want to reduce death tolls, focus on self-driving cars. Auto accidents kill more people in the USA every month than 9/11 killed as a one-off. > > True, but imagine if after 9/11 the USA had done nothing to the organization that did it nor to the government that protected it, That would have been politically impossible -- at least, for an attack of the 9/11 type against a nation with the culture and self-image of the USA. > imagine if they had implicitly said that you can attack the USA at will and there would be no negative consequences of any sort; there would have been a 9/11 every month or something worse, possibly much much worse. Disagree. I tend to think that 9/11 was a fluke; the Hamburg cell just got lucky. For a value of "lucky" that killed off everyone capable of launching such an attack -- they were ObL's elite specialists, and they were all expended in a single suicide raid. Put it another way, Richard Reid is more typical of their regular rank and file. In a couple of decades' time circus clown troupes will be doing the terrorist routine in place of the keystone kops; first their shoes fail to explode, then their underpants fail to explode, then the wings won't even fall off the klown airliner ... (I'm hoping it goes this way. The last thing fanatics of any stripe can cope with is ridicule.) -- Charlie From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Oct 6 18:07:30 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 20:07:30 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> Message-ID: <50707362.5000003@libero.it> Il 06/10/2012 17:17, Tomaz Kristan ha scritto: > > If you want to reduce death tolls, focus on self-driving cars. > > Instead of answering terror attacks, just mend you cars? ..... > What kind of a perverse logic is this? It is the logic of ignoring a problem when the solution is not of your liking. Given the problem at hand, Charlie and others are unable to give any solution coherent with their ideological commitments, so they give solution to other problems and try to make the problem at hand something minor. The problem is not 9/11 or the terrorists attacks before it, but the overreaction of the US. Apparently only the US overreact. All other governments just react to US overreaction. It is a common occurrence with people never bearing the costs of their moral stances. The best way to deal with this is to reroute the full costs of their policies to them. They reconsider their stances near instantaneously. Mirco From msd001 at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 18:25:26 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 14:25:26 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6254.4080701@moulton.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 at 10:32 AM, John Clark wrote: > I am delighted that you think the USA should have done something in response > to 911, but I wonder what exactly you had in mind. Jeff Davis, who has views > similar to yours regarding Afghanistan, implied that even economic sanctions > was being too mean to Iraq when it invaded Kuwait in 1990; so would a severe > tongue lashing to Afghanistan after 911 have been OK, or would that still be > too mean by causing needless emotional trauma to the poor leaders of the > Taliban and Al-Qaeda? You keep rope in the trunk of your car just in case you find yourself at a lynch mob in need of direction, don't you? That's not a judgement, it's just a hypothesis. >> > I am getting really annoyed > Oh no, I'm causing more emotional trauma! I am devastated that Fred C > Moultin is getting really annoyed just as I was devastated that Jeff Davis > is pissed off at me. I'm doubly cursed and my grief knows no bounds. You crack me up. From msd001 at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 18:55:16 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 14:55:16 -0400 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <50707362.5000003@libero.it> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <50707362.5000003@libero.it> Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 at 2:07 PM, Mirco Romanato wrote: > Il 06/10/2012 17:17, Tomaz Kristan ha scritto: >> > If you want to reduce death tolls, focus on self-driving cars. >> Instead of answering terror attacks, just mend you cars? >> What kind of a perverse logic is this? > > It is the logic of ignoring a problem when the solution is not of your > liking. I assumed the point was to examine the "utility" of solving the terrorist threat comparing the number of lives lost to that particular cause vs the number of lives lost to human error driving cars. Taking away the responsibility of keeping a vehicle from killing its occupants or others around it would save many more people each year than are killed by terrorism. While that may be true of simple numbers, the terrorist problem probably should be measured not in lives but in some sense (however false) of safety/security. I'll propose that we (US, the west, etc) feel threatened by religious ideology that is not our own simply because it's unknown.[1] I consider this the driving xenophobia that Keith has been talking about for years. The fact that the policy makers use this fear to manipulation the population means they absolutely will do so. We're generally too afraid to go outside after dark in our own neighborhoods - not because international terrorists will suicide bomb us, but because the "bad guys" are lurking around every corner. Have you seen nighttime Earth from satellite? Why do you think the US is so brightly lit? We're trying to allay those fears of the boogeymen in the dark that we've been told are everywhere. I'm pretty sure the physically larger, differently ethnic, alternately idealled threat waiting to "get me" is the local equivalent of the foreign national (about as different from me/us as possible) is far less of a real threat to my health & safety than my own government. I feel like we're advised to keep the deadbolt locked so nobody can violate our homes while we're eating corn syrup, sugar and carbs in front of the vapid mind-control television. The inevitable destruction of health creates the market for pharmaceuticals. Whatever, I know I'm on a rant. I'll stop here for now. [1] I'm sure the "unknown" in this case does not apply to the learned scholars of this list. I'm talking about the Joe Sixpack average prole. I'm talking about those people in my own community/country who distrust me because my accent is different or because of the out-of-state license plate on my car. This is the ignorance that may be human nature but is ultimately exploited by those "in charge" to constrain the public like a farmer constrains his herd. From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Oct 6 18:55:10 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 20:55:10 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> Message-ID: <50707E8E.5020203@libero.it> Il 06/10/2012 19:18, Charlie Stross ha scritto: > On 6 Oct 2012, at 18:01, John Clark wrote: >> imagine if they had implicitly said that you can attack the USA at >> will and there would be no negative consequences of any sort; there >> would have been a 9/11 every month or something worse, possibly >> much much worse. > Disagree. I tend to think that 9/11 was a fluke; the Hamburg cell > just got lucky. For a value of "lucky" that killed off everyone > capable of launching such an attack -- they were ObL's elite > specialists, and they were all expended in a single suicide raid. In fact, nothing happened in Madrid, London, Mumbay and likes. Or maybe these, also, were "lucky". You miss the fact al Qaeda like to do spectacular attacks, but they are good at old types of attacks. Just give them enough freedom and they will try anything until it work. This man, also, get lucky and got killed (he just wounded three agents in the process) http://www.haaretz.com/jewish-world/jewish-world-news/french-police-kill-man-in-anti-terror-raid-linked-to-attack-on-jewish-shop-1.468533 or the man before him, that killed a lot of Jewish children and a few France soldiers (Muslim traitors AKA not real Muslims in his eyes) http://news.yahoo.com/gunman-kills-4-outside-jewish-school-france-101331556.html Just how many attack would happen if the US and the rest of the Westerns had done nothing for the 9/11 attacks. > Put it another way, Richard Reid is more typical of their regular > rank and file. In a couple of decades' time circus clown troupes will > be doing the terrorist routine in place of the keystone kops; first > their shoes fail to explode, then their underpants fail to explode, > then the wings won't even fall off the klown airliner ... > (I'm hoping it goes this way. The last thing fanatics of any stripe > can cope with is ridicule.) Their Richard Reid kill and mayhem in a smaller scale whenever they are able to do so. Maybe nothing able to be written in a novel or enough to be written on newspapers or talked about in TV, but they do. But they are a lot. As someone wrote: "One stupid man is one stupid man, ten stupid men are ten stupid men, but one million stupid men are a political power". Mirco From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 18:55:55 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 11:55:55 -0700 Subject: [ExI] riots again Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 at 5:00 AM, Tomaz Kristan wrote: > > So you don't agree with this Charlie Stross' quote: > >> It's as if *nobody at all* had studied the history of previous military > interventions in Afghanistan. By which I'm not just talking about the > Soviets; it's like nobody had heard of the Anglo-Afghan Wars, much less the > grisly fate of General Elphinstone's Expedition during the 1842 Retreat > from Kabul -- the worst defeat ever inflicted on the British Empire. > >> It's just an all-around Bad Place to Go. Always has been. Even Alexander > the Great had second thoughts about trying to occupy Afghanistan. > > You do, or you don't? You failed to make explicit who you were responding to, but I will take it on myself to respond. What is there to disagree about? It is, however, worth considering just why Afghanistan is such a miserable place. "Afghanistan?s Sky-high Birthrate Seems to be Declining?and That?s a Very Good Thing "Picture Afghanistan two decades from now. Difficult? Not really-if you're a demographer. The two agencies that independently publish population estimates- the UN Population Division and the US Census Bureau's International Programs Center -- routinely project an array of demographic statistics for the world's nearly 200 countries on a timeframe of decades. Until now, the U.S. and U.N. agencies closely matched one another's projections for an Afghanistan-to-be. Not anymore. The UN believes Afghanistan's population (around 28 million today) will pass the 50 million mark by 2030, whereas the Census Bureau foresees a 2030 population under 43 million. If the Census Bureau's prognostications are right -- if Afghanistan experiences a sharp decline in family size and slower subsequent growth -- this change would represent a milestone in Afghanistan's development. But if Afghan population growth remains at a high level, auguring a continued surfeit of young job seekers, their disaffection and armed violence, the breakdown of schooling and health services, and the perpetuation of high fertility, it bodes very poorly indeed. "Unbeknownst to much of the foreign-policy community, the population of this impoverished Texas-sized pseudo-state is among the world's fastest growing. In 1950, there were barely 8 million Afghans, a population about the same size as New York City today. Since then, the population has nearly quadrupled, despite horrendous rates of childhood death and three decades of warfare. This trend, should its pace continue, guarantees a lengthy perpetuation of Afghanistan's extraordinary "youth bulge" (a youthful age distribution; see the accompanying figure). Today over half of the country's adults are 15-to-29 year olds, compared with only 26 percent in the United States. So much competition in an opportunity-sparse society is bad news for young men seeking employment or land ownership -- and good news for Taliban recruiters. snip "It is little wonder then that, according to the US Census Bureau's International Program Center, on average, Afghan women can expect to bear 5.6 children in their lifetime -- a rate that appears to have dropped from pre-invasion levels, which ranged between 7 and 8 children per woman. [5.64 children born/woman (2012 est--CIA]" ^^^^^^^^^^ http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/afghanistans-sky-high-birthrate-seems-to-be-declining-and-thats-a-very-good-thing/ Afghanistan has been densely populated for its resource base (water, farmland, etc.) for centuries. The high birth rate was countered by very high rates of childhood death and high rates of being killed in tribal wars. Making the transition to a stable society is not going to be easy, at least not at the current level of technology. The problem is that the high birth rate leads to social conditions that keep the birth rate high. Either a high rate of improving income or a big drop in the population would improve the odds. The Black Death of the 1348 is thought (by some) to have had the effect of raising the income per capita in Europe. "It is widely known that the former Soviet Union maintained a stockpile of 20 tons of smallpox virus in its biological weapons arsenal throughout the 1970s, and that, by 1990, they had a plant capable of producing 80?100 tons of smallpox per year [13]. " http://cid.oxfordjournals.org/content/34/7/972.full On the other hand, "Alibek's stories about the former Soviet program's smallpox activities have never been independently verified." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Biological_warfare The fiction I am reluctant to finish has a Russian leader discussing releasing smallpox with the US President after a combination of a US mind control cult and a mess of middle east terrorist has fired three nuclear weapons in the US. Keith From charlie.stross at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 19:09:39 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 20:09:39 +0100 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <50707362.5000003@libero.it> Message-ID: <2A068741-CFD1-4409-9E9C-60D8B7CD6671@gmail.com> On 6 Oct 2012, at 19:55, Mike Dougherty wrote: > > I'll propose that we (US, the west, etc) feel threatened by religious > ideology that is not our own simply because it's unknown.[1] I > consider this the driving xenophobia that Keith has been talking about > for years. Yup. This. And we're getting a lovely display of racist xenophobia from John, Mirco, and their allies along the way. -- Charlie From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Oct 6 19:50:08 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 21:50:08 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <2A068741-CFD1-4409-9E9C-60D8B7CD6671@gmail.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <50707362.5000003@libero.it> <2A068741-CFD1-4409-9E9C-60D8B7CD6671@gmail.com> Message-ID: <50708B70.3060400@libero.it> Il 06/10/2012 21:09, Charlie Stross ha scritto: > On 6 Oct 2012, at 19:55, Mike Dougherty wrote: >> I'll propose that we (US, the west, etc) feel threatened by >> religious ideology that is not our own simply because it's >> unknown.[1] Unfortunately, my feeling for Islam become so "radical" when I researched it and started reading what Muslims believe from them. Initially I assumed the 9/11 was something from "extremists", but more and more I read about Islam and more and more I was confronted with the fact Islam is what his detractors say it is. There are not extremists, only Muslims willing to follow the letter and the spirit of Islam as recorded in its sacred writing and consistently applied for the last 1400 years. >> I consider this the driving xenophobia that Keith has been talking >> about for years. > And we're getting a lovely display of racist xenophobia from John, > Mirco, and their allies along the way. Are we racist xenophobes because we are not interested to fix our cars to solve the War on Terror? or Are we racist xenophobes because you (and the people like you) are in need of someone to scapegoat for your lack of a solution for the Muslim intolerance problem. or Are we racist xenophobes because we don't like to hear about gays couples being beaten by Muslims for holding hand and kissing in public? or Are we racist xenophobes because we want preserve our freedoms even if they irk the feeling of Muslims, Leftist and Nazis alike? Mirco From rahmans at me.com Sat Oct 6 20:08:11 2012 From: rahmans at me.com (Omar Rahman) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 22:08:11 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Subject: Re: riots again In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <7880DC9A-E099-45A0-828E-725B8A6BFDB5@me.com> > Il 05/10/2012 11:26, Omar Rahman ha scritto: >> >>> On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 7:00 AM, Omar Rahman >> > wrote: > >> (Read in the voice of Yoda please.) >> Myopically short term pragmatism a new definition of noble is? > > Yoda, the Jedi Master that never detected Palpatine. > And the other Jedi were not better. > "Look here, I have an Army of Clones ready for you. It is a bargain" > > >> (Again Yoda.) > >> A libertarian you are? Trade in free will impairing chemicals, have >> nothing against you do? > > Master Yoda, I never see you complaining when I kill people and > manipulate their minds. > >> Personal freedom and and property rights you believe in, a contradiction >> not see you? > > Better I profit from them than the Empire profit from them. ANd, anyway, > the clients are more probable to be Imperials, so I love to be paid to > help them to kill themselves. I know, I'm a bit lazy. > >> Only in military operations intelligence gathered was? Of oxymoron never >> heard have you? > > I think I'm hearing one oxy-moron now. > Do you think there are nitro-morons, hydro-morons and carbon-morons also? > > >> (It's a theme....) >> Rely on the power of the force must they have? > > Master Yoda, you and all Jedi relied on the power of the Force and > Palpatine fucked you with the power of the mind. > > >>> So tell it to all the people that >>> right after 911 said we could expect a attack of similar scale in a matter >>> of weeks if not days; its been over 11 years and still nothing. >> >> (...that I shall continue...) > >> Fear mongers they were? To the dark side they took us? > > What about that Army of Clones again? > > Mirco Micro, It's interesting how easily you slip into the role of Palpatine. They were just a series of movies you know but Palpatine did lose and is generally considered the 'bad guy'. Maybe you didn't notice, but my comments were at least on topic. Yours are nonsense. Please try harder, Omar Rahman -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sat Oct 6 19:58:39 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 12:58:39 -0700 Subject: [ExI] riots not again please, was RE: riots again Message-ID: <001801cda3fc$fb76ded0$f2649c70$@att.net> Come on, let's lighten up, all of yas. At least temporarily. Let's take up the heavy stuff Monday morning, 0700 zulu, ja? Description: cid:X.MA21.1343234916 at aol.com spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: application/octet-stream Size: 27245 bytes Desc: not available URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Oct 6 20:14:28 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 22:14:28 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6254.4080701@moulton.com> Message-ID: <50709124.9020006@libero.it> Il 06/10/2012 20:25, Mike Dougherty ha scritto: > On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 at 10:32 AM, John Clark wrote: >> I am delighted that you think the USA should have done something in response >> to 911, but I wonder what exactly you had in mind. Jeff Davis, who has views >> similar to yours regarding Afghanistan, implied that even economic sanctions >> was being too mean to Iraq when it invaded Kuwait in 1990; so would a severe >> tongue lashing to Afghanistan after 911 have been OK, or would that still be >> too mean by causing needless emotional trauma to the poor leaders of the >> Taliban and Al-Qaeda? > You keep rope in the trunk of your car just in case you find yourself > at a lynch mob in need of direction, don't you? > That's not a judgement, it's just a hypothesis. My hypothesis is you have nothing to replying and are just looking for avoiding to do so. Could you, in you illuminated enlightenment, suggest the right course of action after the 9/11 for the US and the rest of the Western World. Mirco From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Oct 6 20:31:13 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 22:31:13 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <1349537687.67168.YahooMailNeo@web160503.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> References: <50672D67.5000506@moulton.com> <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <506F0A5F.2090904@libero.it> <1349537687.67168.YahooMailNeo@web160503.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <50709511.7060203@libero.it> Il 06/10/2012 17:34, The Avantguardian ha scritto: > Now that I have read them, I don't neccessarily buy Wretchard's > Conjectures but they too are a potential resolution to the conflict. > If Secular Humanism and Islam cannot coexist, then they won't for > long. Just remember that muslims love their children too. What matter is what the love most, no one contested they love their children but: http://www.usislam.org/islamicyouth/Muhammad/love_for_the_prophet.htm > Love for the Prophet Muhammad is a measure of one's iman (faith and > inner conviction) and our iman is completed and perfected only when > our love for the Prophet exceeds our love for everything else in this > world, including our own lives. The Holy Qur'an says: > > "The Prophet is preferable for the believers even to their own > selves..." (33:6) > > This is a definitional sentence which tells us what it takes to be a > believer: preferring the Prophet even to one's own life. In > confirmation of this the Prophet is reported in Hadith to have said: > > "None of you becomes a believer until I am dearer to him than his > children, his parents and all mankind." (as reported by Bukhari and > Muslim) Some versions add: "his life, his wealth and his family". > > The best of believers, the suhaba (companions of the Prophet), did > show such love for the Prophet, especially the noblest of them. > Hadhrat Ali, speaking on behalf of all the community of suhaba in > Medina, is reported to have said: > > "The Holy Prophet is dearer to us than our wealth, our children, our > fathers, our forefathers, our mothers and cool water at the time of > severe thirst." > > Love of the Prophet breathes life into our practice of religion. > Without it our religion reduces to an empty adherence to a set of > dead rules and rituals. > > ("Soul of iman, essence of the Qur'an and life of religion - all > these are love of Muhammad, the Mercy to All Creation.") Mirco From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Oct 6 20:46:15 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 22:46:15 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <62B13FDB-226B-42A9-A03A-78A9E748B5CD@gmail.com> References: <50675A45.90909@moulton.com> <506878A4.1050503@moulton.com> <506B92D4.2000500@libero.it> <506F0A5F.2090904@libero.it> <1349537687.67168.YahooMailNeo@web160503.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> <62B13FDB-226B-42A9-A03A-78A9E748B5CD@gmail.com> Message-ID: <50709897.50805@libero.it> Il 06/10/2012 18:45, Charlie Stross ha scritto: > Pretty much. They're poverty-stricken bumpkins from one of the > poorest countries on the earth, with a total population about equal > to the Netherlands. The entire Arab world is, again, pretty damn poor > -- especially if you subtract the oil. The point is: "They are poor, so they are a worth nothing, able nothing and just have a lucky strike". Yes, I'm one racist xenophobe and you are not. Mirco P.S. Have you considered to write a novel about Mohammad criticizing him? "I'll grant you they're hateful and unattractive, but a threat? Not really." If it is true, you should have no problem to do so. From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Oct 6 20:50:02 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 22:50:02 +0200 Subject: [ExI] no more riots again please, was RE: riots again In-Reply-To: <006c01cda3e0$86630310$93290930$@att.net> References: <006c01cda3e0$86630310$93290930$@att.net> Message-ID: <5070997A.2050809@libero.it> Il 06/10/2012 18:34, spike ha scritto: > > My friends, your humble neighborhood moderator considers the entire riots > again thread to have worn threadbare and tiresome. I ask for a voluntary > cease and desist forthwith, even if you feel some yahoo has delivered you a > personal insult and has not clarified, or even if you still have insults you > wish to deliver. I ask that we let it go, and get on to other more > interesting and focused matters, ja? > > Thanks! > > Your Humble but Brilliant Servant OK I will be out until Friday. Mirco From rahmans at me.com Sat Oct 6 20:58:41 2012 From: rahmans at me.com (Omar Rahman) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 22:58:41 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Subject: Re: riots again In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <42EFCFDE-C9FF-4812-9B34-39147B279F97@me.com> > > On Thu, Oct 4, 2012 at 7:00 AM, Omar Rahman wrote: > >> (Read in the voice of Yoda please.) >> Myopically short term pragmatism a new definition of noble is? >> > > Sucked your post does. Like a fine wine a joke ages not. > > John K Clark John, Do you notice that you don't ask very many questions? Is this because you have all the answers? Or perhaps it is because you have adopted the "fact free I've made an assertion and it's up to you to disprove every gaseous emission that comes from whichever orifice I'm currently using to speak " rhetorical style of the Beverage Party? In rhetorical style isn't the Beverage Party walking (goose-stepping?) towards the BIg Lie? Lies and distortions of the truth are antithetical to an extropian mindset as we must view ourselves as a pattern of information. We might want to edit that information or cut parts of it away or add parts to ourselves, but to lie would be to introduce error into ourselves. Maybe there could be some situation in which we wish to contain an error, but lying as a habit or especially as a world view I can only see leading to solipsism or insanity. Religion begins with a statement, science begins with a question. Omar Rahman ~Question or remain silent, there is no lie. (In the voice of Yoda) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 21:27:40 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 23:27:40 +0200 Subject: [ExI] riots again In-Reply-To: <50704654.7050309@libero.it> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> Message-ID: On 6 October 2012 16:55, Mirco Romanato wrote: > What would have you done after 9/11? > Just state this. You mean, If we had been bin Laden? Putting ourselves at the head of muslim fundamentalism by taking the credit? :-) -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sat Oct 6 21:31:11 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 14:31:11 -0700 Subject: [ExI] no more riots again please, was RE: riots again In-Reply-To: <5070997A.2050809@libero.it> References: <006c01cda3e0$86630310$93290930$@att.net> <5070997A.2050809@libero.it> Message-ID: <009701cda409$e867a560$b936f020$@att.net> Subject: Re: [ExI] no more riots again please, was RE: riots again >... spike ha scritto: > > My friends, your humble neighborhood moderator considers the entire > riots again thread to have worn threadbare and tiresome. I ask for a > voluntary cease and desist forthwith...[and hit reset until Monday A.M. ...] > Thanks! > > Your Humble but Brilliant Servant... spike Thanks to all who have voluntarily complied with my request. My faith in you is restored. {8-] We know these are difficult questions with no perfect answers that we have seen. What we have demonstrated is that we do not have any monopoly on political wisdom. Let us focus on those areas which Transhumanists do have special and valuable insights, ja? spike From anders at aleph.se Sat Oct 6 21:35:06 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 22:35:06 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> Message-ID: <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> On 06/10/2012 16:17, Tomaz Kristan wrote: > > If you want to reduce death tolls, focus on self-driving cars. > > Instead of answering terror attacks, just mend you cars? Sounds eminently sensible, except maybe to the people trapped in the riot thread (very suitable name, I think). More seriously, Charlie makes a good point: if we want to make the world better, it might be worth prioritizing fixing the stuff that makes it worse according to the damage it actually makes. Toby Ord and me have been chatting quite a bit about this (I'll see if he has a writeup of his thoughtful analysis; this is my version based on what I remember). ==Death== In terms of death (~57 million people per year), the big causes are cardiovascular disease (29%), infectious and parasitic diseases (23%) and cancer (12%). At least the first and last are to a sizeable degree caused or worsened by ageing, which is a massive hidden problem. It has been argued that malnutrition is similarly indirectly involved in 15-60% of the total number of deaths: often not the direct cause, but weakening people so they become vulnerable to other risks. Anything that makes a dent in these saves lives on a scale that is simply staggering; any threat to our ability to treat them (like resistance to antibiotics or anthelmintics) is correspondingly bad. Unintentional injuries are responsible for 6% of deaths, just behind respiratory diseases 6.5%. Road traffic alone is responsible for 2% of all deaths: even 1% safer cars would save 11,400 lives per year. If everybody reached Swedish safety (2.9 deaths per 100,000 people per year) it would save around 460,000 lives per year - one Antwerp per year. Now, intentional injuries are responsible for 2.8% of all deaths. Of these suicide is responsible for 1.53% of total death rate, violence 0.98% and war 0.3%. Yes, all wars killed about the same number of people as were killed by meningitis, and slightly more than the people who died of syphilis. So in terms of absolute numbers we might be much better off improving antibiotic treatments and suicide hotlines than trying to stop the wars. And terrorism is so small that it doesn't really show up: even the highest estimates put the median fatalities per year in the low thousands. So in terms of deaths, fixing (or even denting) ageing, malnutrition, infectious diseases and lifestyle causes is a far more important activity than winning wars or stopping terrorists. Hypertension, tobacco, STDs, alcohol, indoor air pollution and sanitation are all far, far more pressing in terms of saving lives. If we had a choice between *ending all wars in the world* and fixing indoor air pollution the rational choice would be to fix those smoky stoves: they kill nine times more people. ==Existential risk== There is of course more to improving the world than just saving lives. First there is the issue of outbreak distributions: most wars are local and small affairs, but some become global. Same thing for pandemic respiratory disease. We actually do need to worry about them more than their median sizes suggest (and again the influenza totally dominates all wars). Incidentally, the exponent for the power law distribution of terrorism is safely negative at -2.5, so it is less of a problem than ordinary wars with exponent -1.41. There are reasons to think that existential risk should be weighed extremely strongly: even a tiny risk that we loose all our future is much worse than many standard risks (since the future could be inconceivably grand and involve very large numbers of people, cf. http://www.nickbostrom.com/astronomical/waste.html ). This has convinced me that fixing the safety of governments (democides have been larger killers than wars in the 20th century and seems to have most of the tail risk, especially when you start thinking nukes) needs to be boosted a lot. It is likely a far more pressing problem than climate change, and quite possibly (depending on how you analyse xrisk weighting) beats disease. How to analyse xrisk, especially future risks, in this kind of framework is a big part of our ongoing research at FHI. ==Happiness== If instead of lives lost we look at the impact on human stress and happiness wars (and violence in general) look worse: they traumatize people, and terrorism by its nature is all about causing terror. But again, they happen to a small set of people. So in terms of happiness it might be more important to make the bulk of people happier. Life satisfaction correlates to 0.7 with health and 0.6 with wealth and basic education. Boost those a bit, and it outweighs the horrors of war. In fact, when looking at the value of better lives, it looks like an enhancement in life quality might be worth much more than fixing a lot of the deaths discussed above: make everybody's life 1% better, and it corresponds to more quality adjusted life years than is lost to death every year! So improving our wellbeing might actually matter far, far more than many diseases. Maybe we ought to spend more resources on applied hedonism research than trying to cure Alzheimers. ==Morality== The real reason people focus so much about terrorism is of course the moral outrage. Somebody is *responsible*, people are angry and want revenge. Same thing for wars. And the horror tends to strike certain people: my kind of global calculations might make sense on the global scale, but most of us think that the people suffering the worst have a higher priority. While it might make more utilitarian sense to make everybody 1% happier rather than stop the carnage in Syria, I suspect most people would say morality is on the other side (exactly why is a matter of some interesting ethical debate, of course). Deontologists might think we have moral duties we must implement no matter what the cost. I disagree: burning villages in order to save them doesn't make sense. It makes sense to risk lives in order to save lives, both directly and indirectly (by reducing future conflicts). But this requires proportionality: going to war in order to avenge X deaths by causing 10X deaths is not going to be sustainable or moral. The total moral weight of one unjust death might be high, but it is finite. Given the typical civilian causality ratio of 10:1 any war will also almost certainly produce far more collateral unjust deaths than the justified deaths of enemy soldiers: avenging X deaths by killing exactly X enemies will still lead to around 10X unjust deaths. So achieving proportionality is very, very hard (and the Just War Doctrine is broken anyway, according to the war ethicists I talk to). This means that if you want to leave the straightforward utilitarian approach and add some moral/outrage weighting, you risk making the problem far worse by your own account. In many cases it might indeed be the moral thing to turn the other cheek... ideally armoured and barbed with suitable sanctions. ==Conclusion== To sum up, this approach of just looking at consequences and ignoring who is who is of course a bit too cold for most people. Most people have Tetlockian sacred values and get very riled up if somebody thinks about cost-effectiveness in terrorism fighting (typical US bugaboo) or development (typical warmhearted donor bugaboo) or healthcare (typical European bugaboo). But if we did, we would make the world a far better place. Bring on the robot cars and happiness pills! -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Oxford Martin School Faculty of Philosophy Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sat Oct 6 21:50:15 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 14:50:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] no more riots again please, was RE: riots again In-Reply-To: <5070997A.2050809@libero.it> References: <006c01cda3e0$86630310$93290930$@att.net> <5070997A.2050809@libero.it> Message-ID: <00a401cda40c$92e90540$b8bb0fc0$@att.net> Il 06/10/2012 18:34, spike ha scritto: > > My friends, your humble neighborhood moderator considers the entire > riots again thread to have worn threadbare and tiresome. I ask for a (temporary) > voluntary cease and desist forthwith... spike _______________________________________________ Further note that we are not kill threading riots again, only requesting a temporary reset so that reason is driving rather than emotion. Reason is a far better driver. Ask yourself WWAD: what would Anders do? Can you even imagine that guy firing off an angry response, even if well-deserved, or even in direct response to an insult? Neither can I. Feel free to focus on a particular portion of the discussion and restart a new thread, which has drifted far and wide from the original post on riots. Thanks! spike From anders at aleph.se Sat Oct 6 22:16:55 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sat, 06 Oct 2012 23:16:55 +0100 Subject: [ExI] no more riots again please, was RE: riots again In-Reply-To: <00a401cda40c$92e90540$b8bb0fc0$@att.net> References: <006c01cda3e0$86630310$93290930$@att.net> <5070997A.2050809@libero.it> <00a401cda40c$92e90540$b8bb0fc0$@att.net> Message-ID: <5070ADD7.40502@aleph.se> On 06/10/2012 22:50, spike wrote: > Ask yourself WWAD: what would Anders do? Can you even > imagine that guy firing off an angry response, even if well-deserved, or > even in direct response to an insult? Neither can I. I of course immediately tried to do just that to poke fun at you... and I failed. The best I can do is a bit of snarkiness. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Oxford Martin School Faculty of Philosophy Oxford University From msd001 at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 23:02:42 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 19:02:42 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Right course of action Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 at 4:14 PM, Mirco Romanato wrote: > Il 06/10/2012 20:25, Mike Dougherty ha scritto: >> On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 at 10:32 AM, John Clark wrote: >>> tongue lashing to Afghanistan after 911 have been OK, or would that still >>> be >>> too mean by causing needless emotional trauma to the poor leaders of the >>> Taliban and Al-Qaeda? > >> You keep rope in the trunk of your car just in case you find yourself >> at a lynch mob in need of direction, don't you? > >> That's not a judgement, it's just a hypothesis. > > My hypothesis is you have nothing to replying and are just looking for > avoiding to do so. > > Could you, in you illuminated enlightenment, suggest the right course of > action after the 9/11 for the US and the rest of the Western World. To clarify: I was taking an "all in good fun" jab at John because I imagine he can take my kind of humor. I would hope that such would not offend witnessing third parties such as yourself among all the "riotous" postings. I try to view this list and the discussions on it to be the smart-people equivalent of pub talk; you know: drink in hand, sitting around BS-ing. on that note, I answer your serious question with a humble "no sir, I can not." Anyone that claims to know the "Right course of action" is either trying to sell you a product or is a politician. In general I feel that any single action on any complex system is likely to have minor impact over a long term because the status quo is a point of equilibrium maintained by powerful interests cooperating with inertia to keep things as they are. If you were at the top of a pyramid, would you risk your influential position making radical changes to the structure? Also curious, when you play chess do you/have you ever sacrificed a relatively powerful piece for a stronger board position? Do you play one (or two) moves ahead or do you play towards a particular endgame? How do you choose a strategy based on your opponent's opening move? I think this answer would illuminate (as you say) a response to the 9/11 opening. From msd001 at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 23:22:07 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 19:22:07 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 at 5:35 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > So in terms of deaths, fixing (or even denting) ageing, malnutrition, > infectious diseases and lifestyle causes is a far more important activity > than winning wars or stopping terrorists. Hypertension, tobacco, STDs, > alcohol, indoor air pollution and sanitation are all far, far more pressing > in terms of saving lives. If we had a choice between *ending all wars in the > world* and fixing indoor air pollution the rational choice would be to fix > those smoky stoves: they kill nine times more people. I was going to suggest you run for president on the "improve indoor air quality" platform. The dozen or so of us who would vote for sensibility would inevitably be drowned-out by those prefer full bellies and empty-headed entertainment. Bread and circuses are far easier to provide. > ==Conclusion== > > To sum up, this approach of just looking at consequences and ignoring who is > who is of course a bit too cold for most people. Most people have Tetlockian > sacred values and get very riled up if somebody thinks about > cost-effectiveness in terrorism fighting (typical US bugaboo) or development > (typical warmhearted donor bugaboo) or healthcare (typical European > bugaboo). But if we did, we would make the world a far better place. > > Bring on the robot cars and happiness pills! You're talking about Soma? Agreed; no need to wait until 2540. Oh right, that was a dystopian future :( From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Sat Oct 6 23:08:42 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 16:08:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 109, Issue 15 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 at 1:12 PM, Charlie Stross wrote: > On 6 Oct 2012, at 19:55, Mike Dougherty wrote: >> >> I'll propose that we (US, the west, etc) feel threatened by religious >> ideology that is not our own simply because it's unknown.[1] I >> consider this the driving xenophobia that Keith has been talking about >> for years. > > Yup. This. > > And we're getting a lovely display of racist xenophobia from John, Mirco, and their allies along the way. More or less to be expected of humans whose psychological modules were shaped in the stone age. But the point I make is that the xenophobic (religious) memes are secondary to causal economic and economic prospects--even in the US. Where they are not, in first world countries, the xenophobic memes are due to threats and actual attacks such as the WTC and the London tube bombings. It's almost funny how poorly genes fit in the modern world. WWII was about the last time there were significant numbers of war brides. OBL's genes (psychological mechanisms built by genes that is) made him irrational in a way that would have worked well in the stone age. Bad economic situation/prospects, attack neighbors. Even with *no* chance of winning, the female offspring of the warriors (like OBL) would wind up as wives of the winners after the attackers were killed and their genes would go on. The theory explains what's going on and allows predicting that things are going to get much worse in a lot of places unless there is something which brings population/population growth in line with economics/economic growth. Population growth in most places is declining, but as that article I quoted pointed out, the local meme set isn't very conducive to the things (particularly education of women) that are thought to be strongly associated with lower birth rates. Of course we are all in a jam if we don't solve the energy problem. Keith From spike66 at att.net Sun Oct 7 01:43:04 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 18:43:04 -0700 Subject: [ExI] no more riots again please, was RE: riots again In-Reply-To: <5070ADD7.40502@aleph.se> References: <006c01cda3e0$86630310$93290930$@att.net> <5070997A.2050809@libero.it> <00a401cda40c$92e90540$b8bb0fc0$@att.net> <5070ADD7.40502@aleph.se> Message-ID: <002c01cda42d$19eda260$4dc8e720$@att.net> >...On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg Subject: Re: [ExI] no more riots again please, was RE: riots again On 06/10/2012 22:50, spike wrote: >>... Ask yourself WWAD: what would Anders do? Can you even imagine that > guy firing off an angry response, even if well-deserved, or even in > direct response to an insult? Neither can I. >...I of course immediately tried to do just that to poke fun at you... and I failed. The best I can do is a bit of snarkiness. -- Anders Sandberg, Anders, ya just don't have mean in you pal, even if you try. Consider Life of Brian. The crowds become convinced the messiah has come, but he doesn't want to be that, so no matter what he does, it gets redefined as sinless and perfect. Can you imagine? You get really pissed off, go try to intentionally do something to make the faceless masses bugger off, such as go into the temple and overturn the moneychangers tables. Somehow even that gets turned around, by the masses redefining the money changers as the ones who were the sinners, so overturning their tables becomes the perfectly righteous thing to do. In truth, I have been reading ExI-chat for over 15 years, and in all that time I have never seen you write a post in anger, never seen you insult anyone, never seen a post from you that was not well-thought out. So now you can do no wrong, even if you do wrong, for it would merely redefine wrong. Fortunately this is a sophisticated crowd, so no one here will pray to you or struggle to touch the hem of your garment hoping for healing. spike From spike66 at att.net Sun Oct 7 02:23:20 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 19:23:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] new kurzweil book Message-ID: <003701cda432$b8a34400$29e9cc00$@att.net> OK, looks like the release date on Ray's book has been delayed about a month, to middle of November. I have been anticipating this one for some time. Any Kurzweil hipsters here know if the 13 November date is holding? Amara, how about having Ray post a hi and howdy on ExI please? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From dan_ust at yahoo.com Sun Oct 7 04:59:46 2012 From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan) Date: Sat, 6 Oct 2012 21:59:46 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] Private Dragon spacecraft to launch later today Message-ID: <1349585986.368.YahooMailNeo@web126203.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> http://news.yahoo.com/private-dragon-spacecraft-launch-space-station-cargo-sunday-130553448.html -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Sun Oct 7 05:48:29 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 06:48:29 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 at 10:35 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > More seriously, Charlie makes a good point: if we want to make the world > better, it might be worth prioritizing fixing the stuff that makes it worse > according to the damage it actually makes. Toby Ord and me have been > chatting quite a bit about this (I'll see if he has a writeup of his > thoughtful analysis; this is my version based on what I remember). > > ==Death== > > In terms of death (~57 million people per year), the big causes are > cardiovascular disease (29%), infectious and parasitic diseases (23%) and > cancer (12%). At least the first and last are to a sizeable degree caused or > worsened by ageing, which is a massive hidden problem. It has been argued > that malnutrition is similarly indirectly involved in 15-60% of the total > number of deaths: often not the direct cause, but weakening people so they > become vulnerable to other risks. Anything that makes a dent in these saves > lives on a scale that is simply staggering; any threat to our ability to > treat them (like resistance to antibiotics or anthelmintics) is > correspondingly bad. > > Unintentional injuries are responsible for 6% of deaths, just behind > respiratory diseases 6.5%. Road traffic alone is responsible for 2% of all > deaths: even 1% safer cars would save 11,400 lives per year. If everybody > reached Swedish safety (2.9 deaths per 100,000 people per year) it would > save around 460,000 lives per year - one Antwerp per year. > > Now, intentional injuries are responsible for 2.8% of all deaths. Of these > suicide is responsible for 1.53% of total death rate, violence 0.98% and war > 0.3%. Yes, all wars killed about the same number of people as were killed by > meningitis, and slightly more than the people who died of syphilis. So in > terms of absolute numbers we might be much better off improving antibiotic > treatments and suicide hotlines than trying to stop the wars. And terrorism > is so small that it doesn't really show up: even the highest estimates put > the median fatalities per year in the low thousands. > > So in terms of deaths, fixing (or even denting) ageing, malnutrition, > infectious diseases and lifestyle causes is a far more important activity > than winning wars or stopping terrorists. Hypertension, tobacco, STDs, > alcohol, indoor air pollution and sanitation are all far, far more pressing > in terms of saving lives. If we had a choice between *ending all wars in the > world* and fixing indoor air pollution the rational choice would be to fix > those smoky stoves: they kill nine times more people. > > I don't know your source for the above stats, but one big problem is that it is not helpful to use total world stats. Every country has different stats. e.g. traffic death and injury rates are far worse in India than first world countries. Similar differences for other causes of death. And causes of death are consequential. You hint at this when you mention weakening people. e.g. war death stats. Ex-soldiers have a much higher suicide rate than the general population and many are injured as well. So targeting a seemingly less important cause of death might well produce improvements further up the chain. So improvements need to be tailored to target countries and even to different social groups within countries. As each cause of death is 'fixed' in a country, resources must be reallocated to the next most important in line. Every country will have different targets, depending on how far up the chain they have worked. And, of course, as you fix one cause of death, that will be shifted to an increase in other causes of death. i.e. all the people that would have died in car accidents now die of heart disease instead. At an older age, so life expectancy goes up. It's complicated. BillK From pharos at gmail.com Sun Oct 7 05:57:01 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 06:57:01 +0100 Subject: [ExI] no more riots again please, was RE: riots again In-Reply-To: <002c01cda42d$19eda260$4dc8e720$@att.net> References: <006c01cda3e0$86630310$93290930$@att.net> <5070997A.2050809@libero.it> <00a401cda40c$92e90540$b8bb0fc0$@att.net> <5070ADD7.40502@aleph.se> <002c01cda42d$19eda260$4dc8e720$@att.net> Message-ID: On Sun, Oct 7, 2012 at 2:43 AM, spike wrote: > In truth, I have been reading ExI-chat for over 15 years, and in all that > time I have never seen you write a post in anger, never seen you insult > anyone, never seen a post from you that was not well-thought out. So now > you can do no wrong, even if you do wrong, for it would merely redefine > wrong. > > Dilbert has a good comment today on the riots thread. BillK From protokol2020 at gmail.com Sun Oct 7 07:48:29 2012 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 09:48:29 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> Message-ID: Anders Sandberg said: > More seriously, Charlie makes a good point: if we want to make the world better, it might be worth prioritizing fixing the stuff that makes it worse according to the damage it actually makes. No, it is not good enough. Not wide enough. You should calculate also with the stuff which currently doesn't do much damage, but it would, if it has a chance. You can't say - well, nobody died of an invading army from abroad for last few decades. We, as a country or a pact, don't need an expensive army at all. Or polio. Nobody actually got it, why bother? This line of reasoning is not very wise, sorry. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From charlie.stross at gmail.com Sun Oct 7 10:03:44 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 11:03:44 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> Message-ID: <95B72699-0C82-40B7-8306-DAE18D618E65@gmail.com> On 7 Oct 2012, at 00:22, Mike Dougherty wrote: > On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 at 5:35 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: >> So in terms of deaths, fixing (or even denting) ageing, malnutrition, >> infectious diseases and lifestyle causes is a far more important activity >> than winning wars or stopping terrorists. Hypertension, tobacco, STDs, >> alcohol, indoor air pollution and sanitation are all far, far more pressing >> in terms of saving lives. If we had a choice between *ending all wars in the >> world* and fixing indoor air pollution the rational choice would be to fix >> those smoky stoves: they kill nine times more people. > > I was going to suggest you run for president on the "improve indoor > air quality" platform. The dozen or so of us who would vote for > sensibility would inevitably be drowned-out by those prefer full > bellies and empty-headed entertainment. Bread and circuses are far > easier to provide. ORLY? Here's the thing; the air pollution problem is down to a handful of addressable causes. One of these is widespread combustion of low-grade coal in power stations, which in addition to pumping CO2 into the atmosphere is also prone to producing sulfurous oxides and particulate contamination. Overall, coal-fired electricity generators kill 2-3 orders of magnitude more people than nuclear power plants per GWh output, even if you use the most overloaded estimates of mortality due to nuclear accidents (such as the claim that Chernobyl killed upwards of 25,000 people). Solution: switch China and India to building fission reactors. And build a buttload of modern reactors in the Pripyat zone and then add a big-ass grid interconnect to shunt the surplus electricity west. If we can accept some transmission losses, we can keep the people of Germany from collectively melting down while keeping the lights on in Augsberg. The other major problem is use of indoor cooking fires -- charcoal, wood, low-grade coal. The mortality is hidden, and mostly takes the form of women and children in developing countries who succumb to respiratory infections or TB secondary to lung damage caused by smoke inhalation. The fix is quite simple -- cheap stoves with stove-pipes to vent the smoke outside the home! This is 18th century technology. The only reason it isn't ubiquitous is because we're talking about *poor* people. How much would it cost to fabricate and install half a billion cast-iron stoves? Probably less than the UK is planning on spending on replacing its nuclear deterrent in the next decade. >> ==Conclusion== >> >> To sum up, this approach of just looking at consequences and ignoring who is >> who is of course a bit too cold for most people. Most people have Tetlockian >> sacred values and get very riled up if somebody thinks about >> cost-effectiveness in terrorism fighting (typical US bugaboo) or development >> (typical warmhearted donor bugaboo) or healthcare (typical European >> bugaboo). But if we did, we would make the world a far better place. >> >> Bring on the robot cars and happiness pills! > > You're talking about Soma? Agreed; no need to wait until 2540. Oh > right, that was a dystopian future :( No. Brave New World was *framed* as a dystopian future *by its author*, who was attached to a romantic vision of art as something that can only be produced by a human soul in torment. There was, in other words, an agenda behind it. If you disagree with that agenda, the conclusions look very different. (I can see other things to criticize in BNW, but soma and the hedonistic bias of the world society aren't among them.) On the other hand, some of the horrors of modern bread'n'circuses, as exemplified by reality TV shows such as "Honey Boo Boo" or "Four fat brides, one skinny dress" just drive me to despair of my species. (But on the gripping hand, we've always had our equivalent of Bedlam ...) -- Charlie From anders at aleph.se Sun Oct 7 10:59:30 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sun, 07 Oct 2012 11:59:30 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> Message-ID: <50716092.9010008@aleph.se> On 07/10/2012 08:48, Tomaz Kristan wrote: > Anders Sandberg said: > > > More seriously, Charlie makes a good point: if we want to make the > world better, it might be worth prioritizing fixing the stuff that > makes it worse according to the damage it actually makes. > > No, it is not good enough. Not wide enough. You should calculate also > with the stuff which currently doesn't do much damage, but it would, > if it has a chance. Yes. As hinted in my section on xrisk, this is actually one of the big research topics at FHI. Extreme tail risks do matter, and can sometimes totally dominate the everyday risks. For example, suppose on average X% people die from cancer each year, with a bit of normal distribution noise. Also suppose pandemics kill people according to a power law distribution: most years a handful, but occasionally a lot do. Then it turns out that if the power law exponent is between -1 and -2 the average diverges: wait long enough and a sufficiently big pandemic will wipe out any number of people. So if you try to reduce the expected number of deaths per year, the pandemic risk is far more important - even if the typical incidence rate is far, far lower than those X%. Same thing for wars, democides and maybe agricultural crashes. (The fact that there is just a finite number of humans complicates the analysis in interesting ways. Paper coming up.) But not all power law tails matters. Asteroid deaths have an exponent that is so negative that the expectation does not diverge, and the rate of deadly impacts is low. So fixing other threats actually have higher priority (which is almost a shame, since it would be great to have asteroid defence as a motivation for space colonisation). And then there is the question of unprecendented risk. How do you estimate it? Are there rational ways of handling threats that have not existed before, and where we know we lack information? Some very interesting problems there that we try to get funding for. > This line of reasoning is not very wise, sorry. Wisdom is the ability to figure out what questions we ought to solve. Figuring out how to prioritize the big problems in the world and why we go wrong with it seems to be nearly the definition applied wisdom... But strangely, very few people researched it until about a decade ago. It is still a very small research field. I think that is a pretty impressive example of the collective folly of our species. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Oxford Martin School Faculty of Philosophy Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Sun Oct 7 11:13:53 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sun, 07 Oct 2012 12:13:53 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> Message-ID: <507163F1.7040203@aleph.se> On 07/10/2012 06:48, BillK wrote: > I don't know your source for the above stats, but one big problem is > that it is not helpful to use total world stats. Every country has > different stats. e.g. traffic death and injury rates are far worse in > India than first world countries. Similar differences for other causes > of death. And causes of death are consequential. You hint at this when > you mention weakening people. e.g. war death stats. Ex-soldiers have a > much higher suicide rate than the general population and many are > injured as well. So targeting a seemingly less important cause of > death might well produce improvements further up the chain. Yup. You can complicate the analysis by analysing the causal chains more deeply - ageing is behind a lot of apparently unrelated deaths (like fall accidents), and reducing wars will not just stop direct killing but later suicide plus free a lot of resources for other good uses. But the key point is that if you have a certain set of resources you should try to apply it to have maximal impact. Local tailoring is no doubt important, but *where* you act can be chosen: it is easier to save 1000 lives in sub-Saharan Africa than in the UK. This again goes against the grain of how people like to think, since they tend to prefer to help people similar to them. But if you actually just treat a life saved as a life saved, then it is smarter to use your resources where the elasticity is biggest. > And, of course, as you fix one cause of death, that will be shifted to > an increase in other causes of death. i.e. all the people that would > have died in car accidents now die of heart disease instead. You can think of it as maximizing QUALYs (QUality Adjusted Life Years) rather than saving lives. Finding a permanent solution to mortality would be extremely powerful by this form of accounting. If (say) uploading comes about each individual will now have a more or less guaranteed QUALY per year forever rather than just for 80 years. There are deep issues here about discounting (how much is a QUALY 1000 years into the future worth?) and whether it matters if it is the current or different people enjoying them (pure QUALY counting doesn't care). -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Oxford Martin School Faculty of Philosophy Oxford University From nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk Sun Oct 7 11:18:34 2012 From: nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk (Tom Nowell) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 12:18:34 +0100 (BST) Subject: [ExI] arc offering free issue In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1349608714.83574.YahooMailClassic@web132105.mail.ird.yahoo.com> So a few months back those good folk at New Scientist started up an online quarterly called Arc which is sort-of future oriented, with futurology articles and speculative fiction. I couldn't be bothered spending my pitifully low cash reserves on a copy, but they have offered issue 3 free online (well, I got emailed by them and I've managed to get a free copy, who knows how long this offer is for or if it extends outside UK). Now, these online e-zines - I couldn't get the google play link to work, so I signed up for zinio and started reading the issue through their software. As with many e-zine readers, I find it a little clunky and hard get the zoom level right, but it's not bad. There's some fiction, Neal Stephenson talking about interactive games, some general ranting about civilisation going down in flames - when I finish reading it I'll write a proper review. Arc's website is www.arcfinity.org Tom -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sun Oct 7 14:53:50 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 07:53:50 -0700 Subject: [ExI] thanks to all for no riots until monday, was: RE: no more riots again please, was RE: riots again Message-ID: <00a101cda49b$9034d4c0$b09e7e40$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of BillK ... >...Dilbert has a good comment today on the riots thread. BillK _______________________________________________ Scott Adams is God. He has the most consistently hilarious comic strip in all of the history of mankind. Surely he must have worked at Lockheeed at some point. About 15 yrs ago he had a book signing in Sunnyvale, not far from the office so I decided to go over, but the place was moooobbed with geeks, just huge crowds of geeks all over the place, in the middle of the afternoon on a work day. I never did get a book, they ran out, even though they brought in truckloads, but I wouldn't have stayed around anyway, for I estimated the number of people in line and the minimum time to sign each book (he didn't have them signed ahead of time) and the best estimate was several hours. The funniest part was how Adams was treated. I thought the geeks were going to get down on their knees, or tear his pants off and kiss his butt right there in front of the cheering crowd. spike From spike66 at att.net Sun Oct 7 15:33:09 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 08:33:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <50716092.9010008@aleph.se> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> <50716092.9010008@aleph.se> Message-ID: <00a501cda4a1$0e67dc70$2b379550$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg . >.Extreme tail risks do matter, and can sometimes totally dominate the everyday risks.-- Anders Sandberg, Extreme tail risks drive design in aerospace, where you can't access your stuff to repair or replace it and need three nines reliability. But there is another important subtlety: extreme tail risks drive mass marketing. The well-known marketing principle is: sex sells. But a more insightful marketing principle adds the following corollaries: sex sells, but death sells better. Example: a friend posted me and asked if he should dump his stock in Smith and Wesson Firearms. I advised him to dump it all on the risk that Mr. Romney gets elected, the perceived risk of gun control fades, the stock drops, buy it all back at a discount. The perception of death risk is more important than death risk. If you can shape and control that perception, you make a buttload of money, get elected to any political office you want, steer the masses, the world is yours. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sun Oct 7 15:52:18 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 08:52:18 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <507163F1.7040203@aleph.se> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> <507163F1.7040203@aleph.se> Message-ID: <00aa01cda4a3$bb5d97b0$3218c710$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg ... >.... You can complicate the analysis by analysing the causal chains more deeply - ageing is behind a lot of apparently unrelated deaths (like fall accidents)... -- Anders Sandberg, _______________________________________________ Great example of this: in California, law requires new construction to have smoke detectors in every room, so my own house has six that I can think of. The law evolved in such a way that each smoke detector has both an AC source and a nine volt battery. By design mandate, the AC source does not charge the battery, even if you use a rechargeable battery. When the battery runs down, the smoke detector emits a loud chirp every few minutes. If this happens at night, you cannot sleep through it: you must get up and change that battery. By legal mandate, the smoke detectors are hard mounted on the ceiling (that's where the smoke goes, ja?) so the geezers need to get something like a chair, stand on it, reach over their heads, take down the smoke detector. The AC cord needs to be disconnected, and it has a latch design that prevents it from being taken loose by merely pulling on it. So this requires the geezer to have both hands above her head, looking up, standing on a chair. They fall. They die. Cause of death is never listed as "killed by a smoke detector" or "killed by misguided legislation" that INTRODUCES MORE GODDAM RISK than it retires, for house fires have become extremely rare, and seldom occur at night, when no one is cooking, for appliances no longer spontaneously burst into flames and very few people burn wood in fireplaces around here. But plenty of people fall off of chairs trying to change smoke detector batteries in the night while drunk, stoned or old. So smoke detector legislation goes right on, year after year, running up medical costs and in some cases claiming the lives of unknown numbers of nice little grandmas, in exchange for practically nothing, NOTHING! Here is an interesting example of Anders' point on risk curves: the risk of death from a nighttime house fire and falling off a chair reaching for a smoke detector are both long tail risks, which makes them inherently difficult to estimate and compare, leading to deadly consequences. spike From pharos at gmail.com Sun Oct 7 16:40:55 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 17:40:55 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <00aa01cda4a3$bb5d97b0$3218c710$@att.net> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> <507163F1.7040203@aleph.se> <00aa01cda4a3$bb5d97b0$3218c710$@att.net> Message-ID: On Sun, Oct 7, 2012 at 4:52 PM, spike wrote: > But plenty of people fall off of > chairs trying to change smoke detector batteries in the night while drunk, > stoned or old. So smoke detector legislation goes right on, year after > year, running up medical costs and in some cases claiming the lives of > unknown numbers of nice little grandmas, in exchange for practically > nothing, NOTHING! > > Here is an interesting example of Anders' point on risk curves: the risk of > death from a nighttime house fire and falling off a chair reaching for a > smoke detector are both long tail risks, which makes them inherently > difficult to estimate and compare, leading to deadly consequences. > > I don't think I believe this claim. :) ???? Pensioners are more at risk of accidental fires. Falling asleep while smoking, forgetting about the pan on the cooker, smoking while using their oxygen inhaler :) , etc. They are mostly well aware that they can't stand on chairs. I would expect that a technician or the local Old Folks charity will install the detector in the first place and arrange for the battery to be changed every year. There are so many charities looking after old folks these days that I am sure if battery changing was causing accidents there would be lots of warnings being circulated. Stairs and steps are the risks for old folks. BillK From spike66 at att.net Sun Oct 7 17:32:01 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 10:32:01 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> <507163F1.7040203@aleph.se> <00aa01cda4a3$bb5d97b0$3218c710$@att.net> Message-ID: <00cf01cda4b1$a9bf0fd0$fd3d2f70$@att.net> >... Behalf Of BillK Subject: Re: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement On Sun, Oct 7, 2012 at 4:52 PM, spike wrote: ... > > >...Here is an interesting example of Anders' point on risk curves: the > risk of death from a nighttime house fire and falling off a chair > reaching for a smoke detector are both long tail risks, which makes > them inherently difficult to estimate and compare, leading to deadly consequences. >...I don't think I believe this claim. :) ???? Pensioners are more at risk of accidental fires... OK, cool, we have counterclaims which can be theoretically tested, but only if we have access to actual data regarding cause of death. Read on please. >... Falling asleep while smoking... EXCELLENT POINT sir, and do let me use that as a springboard into my commentary on perceived risk and long term change in tail risks. A remarkable change that has happened in society in the past twenty years is the dramatic reduction in smoking rates. This filthy habit used to be very common, but today I seldom see a person smoking, this being observed less often than the moon quarters. I have gone entire months not even seeing or smelling a person smoking. So the risk of a person smoking in bed has gone down dramatically, all while the numbers of elderly have steadily increased. (Hmmm, wonder if those two factors are somehow related?) >... forgetting about the pan on the cooker... Sure that happens, but these same new construction codes require stovetop vent hoods that can handle most stovetop fires, all that are water based. The kinds of fires that would defeat modern vent hoods are oil based, a form of cooking which has lost popularity as its biggest fans tend to perish at a younger age. (Relationship there?) Oil based cooking is relatively short, higher temperature, and tends to make loud sizzly noises, so it is less likely to be forgotten. Water based stove top cooking make a loooot of stinky but mostly harmless smoke before it actually ignites, if it ever does, so good chance a smoke detector wouldn't be much help in those cases. For the time being, let us ignore the fact that microwave ovens have replaced a lot of stovetop cooking, especially in the geezer crowd. >... smoking while using their oxygen inhaler :) , etc... Granted, but it isn't clear to me how a smoke detector plays into that scenario. >...They are mostly well aware that they can't stand on chairs... On the contrary sir. Read on please. >... I would expect that a technician or the local Old Folks charity will install the detector in the first place... Ja, but the scenario is based on building codes and new construction. Old age is something that sneaks up on us nearly imperceptibly. Most geezers, when presented with this option, would say something to the effect of "Old Folks charity indeed? That is for old folks, and those in need of charity." >... and arrange for the battery to be changed every year... Billk, I would damn near risk my own life before calling someone to change my smoke detector battery. Especially would I do this if I didn't really feel elderly, or if the smoke detector started chirping in the night with a relatively young battery (that happens.) >...There are so many charities looking after old folks these days... In some places, ja. The SF Bay Area isn't really a good place to retire in a lot of ways. It is expensive and faaaaast fast fast, with an accent on expensive. If you don't in some way take advantage of the special advantages of this place, it is better to drift on outward, pocket the profit from your house, live in a place which has more to offer for the geezer crowd. I seldom see what was a very common sight in my misspent youth while riding motorcycles: a puffy blue-white Bouffant behind the wheel at a stop sign, looking the other way. That is so scary to a biker, for you don't know if she has already looked your way, not seen you, is now looking the other way and is preparing to pull out and kill you. >... that I am sure if battery changing was causing accidents there would be lots of warnings being circulated... The reason I am circulating the warnings and often feel like the lonely voice in the desert is that the real cause of the accident is not being correctly addressed. The geezer is brought into the hospital with the cause of death listed as fall in the home. The real cause is death by smoke detector, but this is never listed as a cause of death. So on and on it goes. Smoke detectors are not perceived as dangerous, nor are step ladders or chairs, or cheapy WalMart batteries. But with proper data analysis, we could un-distort the actual risk matrix and start to retire real risk in proportion to perceived risk. Summary: smoking in bed death, scary but rare and becoming more so. Falling off a chair, changing a smoke detector battery while old, drunk, stoned or stupid: not scary, sounds silly, but not so rare and becoming more not rare. Proposed solution: somehow getting access to fire and rescue data, and properly assigning risk to actual root causes. Talk to any veteran fireman and ask how their jobs have changed dramatically from the old days, thirty years ago. It used to be they put out house fires. Now they have become primarily expensive ambulance paramedic teams. >... Stairs and steps are the risks for old folks...BillK _______________________________________________ Ja! Plenty of geezers don't have those, but do have smoke detectors, by law. We don't have a data infrastructure currently capable of properly assigning the risk introduced by those things. So those "fall" deaths and injuries are perpetuated, as each of us ages and that risk actually increases. spike From mbb386 at main.nc.us Sun Oct 7 17:58:07 2012 From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 13:58:07 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <00cf01cda4b1$a9bf0fd0$fd3d2f70$@att.net> References: <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> <507163F1.7040203@aleph.se> <00aa01cda4a3$bb5d97b0$3218c710$@att.net> <00cf01cda4b1$a9bf0fd0$fd3d2f70$@att.net> Message-ID: > Billk, I would damn near risk my own life before calling > someone to change > my smoke detector battery. Especially would I do this if > I didn't really > feel elderly, or if the smoke detector started chirping in > the night with a > relatively young battery (that happens.) > >>...There are so many charities looking after old folks >> these days... > > In some places, ja. (snip) Not here. Heh. And have you *priced* what it would cost to have someone (an electrician???) come do this job for you? Especially in the night. Probably a couple hundred bucks. Which an old retired person is not likely to have. Chairs can be my friend. A chair has a back on which I can rest my hand for balance as I clamber up to reach the higher kitchen shelves that I can no longer reach, having shrunk somewhat in my old age.... The kitchen step stool does not have such a thing. Actually it does, but it is very low, not like a chair back. And the steps are narrow and easy to slip off of. Regards, MB From pharos at gmail.com Sun Oct 7 19:05:27 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 20:05:27 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <00cf01cda4b1$a9bf0fd0$fd3d2f70$@att.net> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> <507163F1.7040203@aleph.se> <00aa01cda4a3$bb5d97b0$3218c710$@att.net> <00cf01cda4b1$a9bf0fd0$fd3d2f70$@att.net> Message-ID: On Sun, Oct 7, 2012 at 6:32 PM, spike wrote: > OK, cool, we have counterclaims which can be theoretically tested, but only > if we have access to actual data regarding cause of death. > CDC have USA stats for accidents. Some quotes: Each year, one in every three adults age 65 and older falls. Falls can cause moderate to severe injuries, such as hip fractures and head injuries, and can increase the risk of early death. Fortunately, falls are a public health problem that is largely preventable. ----------- So falls are very common in the elderly and it is a known public health problem that they are actively trying to improve. About half of elderly falls are in the home. Therefore falls are just as common in places where there are no smoke alarms. CDC publish check lists of things to watch out for in the home to prevent falls. Smoke alarms are not mentioned. e.g. Make their homes safer by reducing tripping hazards, adding grab bars inside and outside the tub or shower and next to the toilet, adding railings on both sides of stairways and improving the lighting in their homes. I am not saying that an elder attempting to change a smoke alarm battery is not dangerous. I am claiming it is a very rare event that few seniors would even attempt. (And tell MB to stop standing on a chair in the kitchen!). :) BillK From msd001 at gmail.com Sun Oct 7 20:05:56 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 16:05:56 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <00a501cda4a1$0e67dc70$2b379550$@att.net> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> <50716092.9010008@aleph.se> <00a501cda4a1$0e67dc70$2b379550$@att.net> Message-ID: On Sun, Oct 7, 2012 at 11:33 AM, spike wrote: > Extreme tail risks drive design in aerospace, where you can?t access your > stuff to repair or replace it and need three nines reliability. But there > is another important subtlety: extreme tail risks drive mass marketing. The > well-known marketing principle is: sex sells. But a more insightful > marketing principle adds the following corollaries: sex sells, but death > sells better. "Extreme tail risks" and "sex sells" in the same paragraph. Wasn't sure if you noticed that. :) From clementlawyer at gmail.com Sun Oct 7 19:55:11 2012 From: clementlawyer at gmail.com (James Clement) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 12:55:11 -0700 Subject: [ExI] WIRED: Cryonics Photos Delve Into the Frozen World of the Immortality Faithful Message-ID: http://www.wired.com/rawfile/2012/10/murray-ballard-cyronics/ James -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Sun Oct 7 20:19:08 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sun, 07 Oct 2012 21:19:08 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> <507163F1.7040203@aleph.se> <00aa01cda4a3$bb5d97b0$3218c710$@att.net> <00cf01cda4b1$a9bf0fd0$fd3d2f70$@att.net> Message-ID: <5071E3BC.6070502@aleph.se> On 07/10/2012 20:05, BillK wrote: > On Sun, Oct 7, 2012 at 6:32 PM, spike wrote: >> OK, cool, we have counterclaims which can be theoretically tested, but only >> if we have access to actual data regarding cause of death. >> > CDC have USA stats for accidents. > > Some quotes: > Each year, one in every three adults age 65 and older falls. Falls can > cause moderate to severe injuries, such as hip fractures and head > injuries, and can increase the risk of early death. Fortunately, falls > are a public health problem that is largely preventable. > ----------- > > So falls are very common in the elderly and it is a known public > health problem that they are actively trying to improve. > > About half of elderly falls are in the home. Therefore falls are just > as common in places where there are no smoke alarms. > > CDC publish check lists of things to watch out for in the home to > prevent falls. Smoke alarms are not mentioned. That particular reasons are not reported doesn't mean they are unimportant, but just that the reporting systems do not gather the data. While there are bizarre ICD9 codes (there isE979.5"Terrorism involving nuclear weapons"), there doesn't seem to be one corresponding to "died of falling from chair while fixing smoke detector": http://icd9cm.chrisendres.com/index.php?srchtype=diseases&srchtext=fall&Submit=Search&action=search http://icd9cm.chrisendres.com/index.php?srchtype=diseases&srchtext=furniture&Submit=Search&action=search An oversight bureuacrats will no doubt soon fix. Looking around at the data I found, I did some calculations: The number of lives saved by smoke alarms in California is roughly 37,691,912 Californians *(5 saved lives/12 deaths)* (3377 fire deaths /151268 accidental deaths ) * (57 deadly accidents per year / 100,000 people) = 479 people per year. Number of Californians killed in falls per year: 37,691,912 Californians * (8.1 fall deathsper year / 100,000 people) = 3053 fall deaths per year http://danger.mongabay.com/injury_death.htm http://www.firesafetycouncil.com/english/pubsafet/safact.htm http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/acc-inj.htm So the number of extra falls due to the darn smoke detectors need to be bigger than the number of saved by them in order for them to be an unmitigated bad thing. But it looks unlikely to me that the new rules have caused a 15% increase of deadly falls. Stupid regulations are still bad, even if they don't kill enough people to make themselves counterproductive. There is a lot of loss due to annoyance, extra costs and the need for more red tape. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Sun Oct 7 20:51:26 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 21:51:26 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <5071E3BC.6070502@aleph.se> References: <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> <507163F1.7040203@aleph.se> <00aa01cda4a3$bb5d97b0$3218c710$@att.net> <00cf01cda4b1$a9bf0fd0$fd3d2f70$@att.net> <5071E3BC.6070502@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Sun, Oct 7, 2012 at 9:19 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > So the number of extra falls due to the darn smoke detectors need to be > bigger than the number of saved by them in order for them to be an > unmitigated bad thing. But it looks unlikely to me that the new rules have > caused a 15% increase of deadly falls. > > Stupid regulations are still bad, even if they don't kill enough people to > make themselves counterproductive. There is a lot of loss due to annoyance, > extra costs and the need for more red tape. > > Smoke detectors are recommended to be replaced every ten years as they wear out. Apparently they now sell smoke detectors with ten-year lithium batteries that last for the life of the unit. Prices seem comparable to the old units plus the battery replacements. BillK From bbenzai at yahoo.com Sun Oct 7 20:44:23 2012 From: bbenzai at yahoo.com (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 13:44:23 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] Off topic or on? Group about Cryonics and Beauty, or not? Message-ID: <1349642663.26379.YahooMailClassic@web114408.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> Kevin G Haskell asked: > To this fantastic group of intellectuals: > > This is an essential group of thinkers regarding > Transhumanism, etc.? But > can we please try to restrain our comments to our two main > points of the > groups, which are: > Effective and widespread cryonics at an affordable price for > everyone and > secondly, how to maintain and even vastly improve beauty and > art...artful > beauty, if you will, especially as it pertains to > youthfulness? > > I am in quite a few groups that are related to > Transhumanism, and to > Singularitarianism.? I have to say that this group is > falling into a > similar trap that they do, and that is to discuss "all' of > the issues that > pertain to both of those major issues. > > Here, doesn't it make more sense that we focus like lasers > on Max's goal of > a superior, cheaper, more widespread version of Vanilla Sky, > and second, > that we focus on Natasha's focus that the Transhumanist > future make new > humanity beautiful and filled with style, no matter what > their financial > circumstance? > > I don't mean to stir up anything here, I just mean that > Facebook has made > so many groups open to everything, and that this group might > be better off > focusing on what Max and Natasha are trying to keep it > focused on: > Widespread, effective cryonics (Max) and widespread, > creative, and cutting > edge H+ style and design (Natasha.) So, no more talk about robots, space-based solar power, uploading, M-Brains, space elevators, existential risk, maths, physics, biology, philosopy, politics, sociology, bees, ants, computing, fiction, futurology, psychology, religion, logic puzzles, cosmology, and frickin' laser beams? OK, gotcha. Ben Zaiboc From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Sun Oct 7 21:14:09 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 23:14:09 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> Message-ID: On 6 October 2012 23:35, Anders Sandberg wrote: > More seriously, Charlie makes a good point: if we want to make the world > better, it might be worth prioritizing fixing the stuff that makes it worse > according to the damage it actually makes. Toby Ord and me have been > chatting quite a bit about this (I'll see if he has a writeup of his > thoughtful analysis; this is my version based on what I remember). > Hey, even though Anders and I may be always not on the same philosophical line, he is certainly a cool and refreshing (there is a joke in that in Italian, but I am not sure it translates in English) thinker. :-) -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Sun Oct 7 21:20:13 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 23:20:13 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> Message-ID: On 7 October 2012 07:48, BillK wrote: > So improvements need to be tailored to target countries and even to > different social groups within countries. > Absolutely. But this probably emphasises the scope of the argument, since the probability of anybody in my country or social group to be attacked by an Afghani insurgent (especially if left alone!), in comparison with dying of old age is indeed vanishingly small, so the billion euros spent in playing the colonial troops for the ISAF can easily be argued from this POV not to be the best investment thereof. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Sun Oct 7 21:23:30 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 23:23:30 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <95B72699-0C82-40B7-8306-DAE18D618E65@gmail.com> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> <95B72699-0C82-40B7-8306-DAE18D618E65@gmail.com> Message-ID: On 7 October 2012 12:03, Charlie Stross wrote: > No. Brave New World was *framed* as a dystopian future *by its author*. > I am confused here. Do you consider the Brave New World as a welcome prospective? Not that you would be the only one (see Fukuyama). -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From brent.allsop at canonizer.com Sun Oct 7 22:08:59 2012 From: brent.allsop at canonizer.com (Brent Allsop) Date: Sun, 07 Oct 2012 16:08:59 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Off topic or on? Group about Cryonics and Beauty, or not? In-Reply-To: <1349642663.26379.YahooMailClassic@web114408.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> References: <1349642663.26379.YahooMailClassic@web114408.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <5071FD7B.2030003@canonizer.com> Kevin, What? You mean I can't talk about the most important thing of all - theoretical (as in falsifiable) science of mind? I can't talk about how we'll be able to effing know if my ineffable redness is the same as yours and what phenomenal uploading will be like? I can't talk about how the knowledge of the world in our brains will be able to be unified with the world of knowledge in our upload's brain, like the left hemisphere conscious world is unified with the right. I can't talk about what it will be like as our knowledge of our 'spirit' (which has no referent in reality) will finally escape from our skull, and bee free to travel to any other significantly phenomenally expanded worlds of knowledge...? Along with all the great stuff Ben mentioned? Oh, wait, I guess the very definition of 'beauty' is that which is phenomenal. So I guess all that is included, right? Brent Allsop On 10/7/2012 2:44 PM, Ben Zaiboc wrote: > Kevin G Haskell asked: > >> To this fantastic group of intellectuals: >> >> This is an essential group of thinkers regarding >> Transhumanism, etc. But >> can we please try to restrain our comments to our two main >> points of the >> groups, which are: >> Effective and widespread cryonics at an affordable price for >> everyone and >> secondly, how to maintain and even vastly improve beauty and >> art...artful >> beauty, if you will, especially as it pertains to >> youthfulness? >> >> I am in quite a few groups that are related to >> Transhumanism, and to >> Singularitarianism. I have to say that this group is >> falling into a >> similar trap that they do, and that is to discuss "all' of >> the issues that >> pertain to both of those major issues. >> >> Here, doesn't it make more sense that we focus like lasers >> on Max's goal of >> a superior, cheaper, more widespread version of Vanilla Sky, >> and second, >> that we focus on Natasha's focus that the Transhumanist >> future make new >> humanity beautiful and filled with style, no matter what >> their financial >> circumstance? >> >> I don't mean to stir up anything here, I just mean that >> Facebook has made >> so many groups open to everything, and that this group might >> be better off >> focusing on what Max and Natasha are trying to keep it >> focused on: >> Widespread, effective cryonics (Max) and widespread, >> creative, and cutting >> edge H+ style and design (Natasha.) > > So, no more talk about robots, space-based solar power, uploading, M-Brains, space elevators, existential risk, maths, physics, biology, philosopy, politics, sociology, bees, ants, computing, fiction, futurology, psychology, religion, logic puzzles, cosmology, and frickin' laser beams? > > OK, gotcha. > > > Ben Zaiboc > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From stathisp at gmail.com Sun Oct 7 21:56:45 2012 From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou) Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2012 08:56:45 +1100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> <507163F1.7040203@aleph.se> <00aa01cda4a3$bb5d97b0$3218c710$@att.net> Message-ID: <796ED4C9-A718-44EA-9AD3-63A40EEA32FF@gmail.com> On 08/10/2012, at 3:40 AM, BillK wrote: > Pensioners are more at risk of accidental fires. Falling asleep while > smoking, forgetting about the pan on the cooker, smoking while using > their oxygen inhaler :) , etc. > They are mostly well aware that they can't stand on chairs. I would > expect that a technician or the local Old Folks charity will install > the detector in the first place and arrange for the battery to be > changed every year. > > There are so many charities looking after old folks these days that I > am sure if battery changing was causing accidents there would be lots > of warnings being circulated. Stairs and steps are the risks for old > folks. It's not the yearly battery changing that's the problem, it's making the wretched things stop screeching when you've burned the toast. -- Stathis Papaioannou From mbb386 at main.nc.us Sun Oct 7 23:22:03 2012 From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 19:22:03 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <796ED4C9-A718-44EA-9AD3-63A40EEA32FF@gmail.com> References: <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> <507163F1.7040203@aleph.se> <00aa01cda4a3$bb5d97b0$3218c710$@att.net> <796ED4C9-A718-44EA-9AD3-63A40EEA32FF@gmail.com> Message-ID: <36ee2b354f17546ef966b0b1a6427b14.squirrel@www.main.nc.us> > It's not the yearly battery changing that's the problem, > it's making the wretched things stop screeching when > you've burned the toast. > > Heh. A hand fan waved vigorously directly at the noisy thing will often convince it to shut up. I keep such a fan hanging on the wall by the detector. Regards, MB From charlie.stross at gmail.com Sun Oct 7 22:45:19 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 23:45:19 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> <95B72699-0C82-40B7-8306-DAE18D618E65@gmail.com> Message-ID: <-6336505622346505803@unknownmsgid> On 7 Oct 2012, at 22:24, Stefano Vaj wrote: On 7 October 2012 12:03, Charlie Stross wrote: > No. Brave New World was *framed* as a dystopian future *by its author*. > I am confused here. Do you consider the Brave New World as a welcome prospective? Not that you would be the only one (see Fukuyama). That's a question with a complex answer ... (Caveat; it's about 30 years since I last read BNW. Contents have definitely settled during shipping ...) Dystopian didactic fiction is a complex area because it betrays a lot about what the author considers to be bad -- or at least a sub-optimal way of life. But not everyone agrees on these criteria. Margaret Atwood's Gilead in "The Handmaid's Tail" is clearly framed as a feminist dystopia, and indeed it's pretty grim for anyone who isn't a Christian fundamentalist who believes women should be held as chattel and used as breeding stock. However, it was *based* on a pre-existing set of beliefs, which Atwood simply extrapolated (a sub-type of SF sometimes known as "if this goes on" fiction). And it should be fairly obvious that there's a barking fringe in the USA (and elsewhere in the developed world, never mind places like Iran and Afghanistan) who really *do* think that giving women the vote and the right to own property was a mistake. So, while "The Handmaid's Tale" is *meant* to be read as a hideous dystopia, there are folks out there who might well mistake it for a road-map rather than a warning. 1984 is unambiguously a warning. There's no constituency out there hoping to bring about the reign of the Ingsoc party; it was a parody to some extent of the excesses of Stalinism and Nazism, and as a warning against authoritarianism in general. But "Brave New World", like "The Handmaid's Tale", is somewhat more nuanced; what you make of it depends on where you stand. Here's the thing: the world of BNW has achieved global peace in the wake of a horrible war (fought with chemical and biological weapons). People are genetically engineered for the roles they will fill. But there's enough lubricant in the system that it doesn't qualify as truly totalitarian. Dissident Alphas or Betas who disagree with the system aren't persecuted or killed; there's a safety valve posting for them. There are enclaves of primitives, kept around in case the engineered world government has some unanticipated failure mode: this is an enlightened despotism that could well follow Cromwell's maxim: "I beseech thee in the bowels of Christ, pray consider that thou might be wrong?" Again, the deliberate creation of low-intelligence workers (deltas and gammas) is explained: "what if we made everyone a genius-level alpha? Who would then take out the trash? The delta and gamma jobs still need doing; alphas would be unhappy in those roles." I may have forgotten some of the details, but if my memory of the book is correct, Huxley was railing against the intellectual over-determinism of this world, the lack of a niche for the liberal arts other than as producers of vacuous entertainment for the masses, and the horrible spectre of rampant materialism and rationalism. Now, there are various critiques one can make of BNW's system, starting with: it's yet another bloody top-down authoritarian hierarchical system. They tend in practice to be brittle, inimical to liberty, and have a dismaying tendency to build pyramids of skulls in a way that ad hoc bottom-up emergent systems don't. But this wasn't as obvious to Huxley when he wrote it in the 1930s as it would have been just 20 years later. The thing is, going by my memory, Huxley used BNW to highlight perceived weaknesses of technocratic proposals for planned economies, only his objection was aesthetic (and to a lesser extent moral) rather than practical. It's like objecting to Nazism because they didn't respect librarians, or objecting to Communism because one harbours a distaste for Constructivist poster art. It is, to put it simply, missing the point. (And now you have gone and given me a reason to add "Brave New World" to my to-read heap. Which is already overflowing, dammit ...) -- Charlie Sent from my iPad -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Mon Oct 8 04:19:24 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 21:19:24 -0700 Subject: [ExI] let the riots commence, was: RE: no more riots again please, was RE: riots again Message-ID: <00b001cda50c$199fdc30$4cdf9490$@att.net> >...Dilbert has a good comment today on the riots thread. BillK _______________________________________________ Thanks everybody for postponing the riots until I got home. I was on vacation with the family and had only intermittent access to email, so I had no good way of removing fuel rods if necessary from what looked like the start of a flame war. I still haven't reviewed everything that was posted, and may not unless the flame throwers start up again. In any case, I am back on duty, a couple hours ahead of schedule, which was originally supposed to be around midnight PST. So let the previously scheduled and postponed riots commence, if you think it is absolutely necessary to still have them, thanks. Your friendly omnipotent and omniscient volunteer moderator {8-] spike From spike66 at att.net Mon Oct 8 04:29:46 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 21:29:46 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Off topic or on? Group about Cryonics and Beauty, or not? In-Reply-To: <1349642663.26379.YahooMailClassic@web114408.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> References: <1349642663.26379.YahooMailClassic@web114408.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <00c301cda50d$8cbbacc0$a6330640$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Ben Zaiboc >...So, no more talk about robots, space-based solar power, uploading, M-Brains, space elevators, existential risk, maths, physics, biology, philosopy, politics, sociology, bees, ants, computing, fiction, futurology, psychology, religion, logic puzzles, cosmology, and frickin' laser beams? >...Ben Zaiboc _______________________________________________ The extropy list has always been intentionally open-ended as opposed to the more rigorously controlled, closely moderated and focused groups, some of which were formed as specifically focused spin-offs from extropy. About ten years ago we had for a while a group who discussed mathematical special interests. That was cool. We had a focused extropy astronomy group too, both of which had about a dozen participants and lasted a few months. There was another one we still don't discuss openly. In all three of those cases, the subject matter was strictly controlled. On the main list, we have always intentionally kept it open to subjects only vaguely related to transhumanism. I used to hang out on the MENSA groups back in the mid 90s, and they did something kind of similar: had a main discussion group, which was all over the map, and a bunch of focus groups. For some time, I was under the mistaken impression that ExI was a MENSA spinoff group, but they didn't seem to know of us, and had surprisingly little interest in what we were doing over here. So eventually I quit hanging out there. Regarding the openness of the main ExI-chat list, I see no compelling reason to change it. Other thoughts? spike From clementlawyer at gmail.com Mon Oct 8 04:53:26 2012 From: clementlawyer at gmail.com (James Clement) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 21:53:26 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Off topic or on? Group about Cryonics and Beauty, or not? In-Reply-To: <00c301cda50d$8cbbacc0$a6330640$@att.net> References: <1349642663.26379.YahooMailClassic@web114408.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> <00c301cda50d$8cbbacc0$a6330640$@att.net> Message-ID: Spike wrote: > The extropy list has always been intentionally open-ended as opposed to the > more rigorously controlled, closely moderated and focused groups, some of > which were formed as specifically focused spin-offs from extropy. > > Where can we find a list of Extropy focus groups? BTW, I don't think either Natasha or Max would mind the range of topics that are discussed here, only the knee-jerk political or cultural trolling which occasionally fairs up. Thanks, James Clement -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Mon Oct 8 04:43:41 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 21:43:41 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Off topic or on? Group about Cryonics and Beauty, or not? In-Reply-To: <5071FD7B.2030003@canonizer.com> References: <1349642663.26379.YahooMailClassic@web114408.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> <5071FD7B.2030003@canonizer.com> Message-ID: <00d101cda50f$7e8b8e20$7ba2aa60$@att.net> >... Behalf Of Brent Allsop Subject: Re: [ExI] Off topic or on? Group about Cryonics and Beauty, or not? >...What? You mean I can't talk about the most important thing of all - theoretical (as in falsifiable) science of mind? I can't talk about how we'll be able to effing know if my ineffable redness is the same as yours and what phenomenal uploading will be like...Brent Allsop Brent, one of the reasons I will likely go in for cryonics is in the vague hope that uploading eventually works, and if it does, I can someday find out what it feels like to be you. When I am done with that, I want to resume being me. I think that would be a really effing cool experience. And after that, I want to find out what it feels like to be a woman. When I find out how women see this world, it may explain a lot of things which have baffled me utterly my entire life. But afterwards, I damn sure want to return to being me, and somehow carry the knowledge back with me. I have a theory that such an experience would make me a better man. spike From max at maxmore.com Mon Oct 8 06:20:49 2012 From: max at maxmore.com (Max More) Date: Sun, 7 Oct 2012 23:20:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Off topic or on? Group about Cryonics and Beauty, or not? In-Reply-To: References: <1349642663.26379.YahooMailClassic@web114408.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> <00c301cda50d$8cbbacc0$a6330640$@att.net> Message-ID: Kevin's suggestion was rather surprising... As Spike noted, this list has always covered a wide range of extropic, transhumanist-related topics. This is not intended or designed as a tightly-focused forum. James: Those Extropy focus groups are long gone (as far as I know). --Max On Sun, Oct 7, 2012 at 9:53 PM, James Clement wrote: > Spike wrote: > >> The extropy list has always been intentionally open-ended as opposed to >> the >> more rigorously controlled, closely moderated and focused groups, some of >> which were formed as specifically focused spin-offs from extropy. >> >> Where can we find a list of Extropy focus groups? > > BTW, I don't think either Natasha or Max would mind the range of topics > that are discussed here, only the knee-jerk political or cultural trolling > which occasionally fairs up. > > Thanks, > > James Clement > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -- Max More, PhD Strategic Philosopher Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader* President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation 7895 E. Acoma Dr # 110 Scottsdale, AZ 85260 480/905-1906 ext 113 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Mon Oct 8 10:54:17 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2012 12:54:17 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <-6336505622346505803@unknownmsgid> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> <95B72699-0C82-40B7-8306-DAE18D618E65@gmail.com> <-6336505622346505803@unknownmsgid> Message-ID: On 8 October 2012 00:45, Charlie Stross wrote: > > Now, there are various critiques one can make of BNW's system, starting > with: it's yet another bloody top-down authoritarian hierarchical system. > They tend in practice to be brittle, inimical to liberty, and have a > dismaying tendency to build pyramids of skulls in a way that ad hoc > bottom-up emergent systems don't. > Actually, my take is that 1984 is simply caricatural. Few actual nazis or stalinists would positively identify with the Ingsoc regime, and no effort is made to present its world from the perspective of an enthusiastic supporter of the party, O'Brien himself being just a bidimensional, philosophical icon of "evil". BNW is a quite different in that it is clearly possible to find people who, with minor qualifications, would consider the scenario depicted as an utopian, as opposed to a dystopian, scenario. The merits of the novel IMHO lay in the fact that its extrapolations help each of us to think "up to the end" what we already think, including for everyday policy choices. Should I need to add that I consider BNW-like "evolutions" as a likely direction of recent developments and the very opposite of what my brand of transhumanism/posthumanism (see, eg, http://www.biopolitix.com) stand for, as a much more plausible threat than neo-primitive fantasies ? la Latouche/Kaczynski/N?ss? -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk Mon Oct 8 12:55:45 2012 From: nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk (Tom Nowell) Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2012 13:55:45 +0100 (BST) Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1349700945.9436.YahooMailClassic@web132101.mail.ird.yahoo.com> While 1984 may be a caricature, it was exceeded by reality - the East German Stasi managed to have 1 in 5 Germans informing on the rest of the citizens. 1984 was intended as a warning against Communist Totalitarianism, and it turned out the horrors could easily be exceeded in the real world. I found a copy of the Faber Book of Utopias in a charity shop, so have been reading up on old visions of societies both envisioned as extremely good and extremely bad. Has anyone read Yevgeny Zamyatin's "We"? It appears to be a horrific dystopia and is said to have inspired Brave New World and 1984. The section quoted in the book of utopias is about the recommendation of "fantasiectomy" - an operation to reduce the imagination and make people happier workers within The One State. Hmm...there's a lot of utopias and dystopias out there, I could spend years reading to try and capture a representative sample. Tom -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From charlie.stross at gmail.com Mon Oct 8 13:20:10 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2012 14:20:10 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <1349700945.9436.YahooMailClassic@web132101.mail.ird.yahoo.com> References: <1349700945.9436.YahooMailClassic@web132101.mail.ird.yahoo.com> Message-ID: On 8 Oct 2012, at 13:55, Tom Nowell wrote: > While 1984 may be a caricature, it was exceeded by reality - the East German Stasi managed to have 1 in 5 Germans informing on the rest of the citizens. 1984 was intended as a warning against Communist Totalitarianism, and it turned out the horrors could easily be exceeded in the real world. Obligatory reading: "Stasiland" by Anne Funder. (Among other eye-openers: East Germany never really de-Nazified. When the Soviets swept in they brought a bunch of tame German Communists who'd been in exile in the USSR and were happy enough to toe Stalin's line. Who executed the obvious Nazi leaders but basically ignored lower-level functionaries, because by 1940 if you were German you had to be a Nazi in order to be a doctor or a teacher; if they'd killed all the Nazis they wouldn't have had a state to run. So by the late 1950s East Germany was the worst of both worlds; a state run by doctrinaire Stalinists at the top and recycled Nazis at the lower levels.) > I found a copy of the Faber Book of Utopias in a charity shop, so have been reading up on old visions of societies both envisioned as extremely good and extremely bad. Has anyone read Yevgeny Zamyatin's "We"? It appears to be a horrific dystopia and is said to have inspired Brave New World and 1984. The section quoted in the book of utopias is about the recommendation of "fantasiectomy" - an operation to reduce the imagination and make people happier workers within The One State. > > Hmm...there's a lot of utopias and dystopias out there, I could spend years reading to try and capture a representative sample. One of these days I want to try my hand at writing a utopia. The first rule of thumb I have, though, is "no single system ever works for everyone". Makes the job rather more complicated than if you can just wave a magic wand and have your minions bundle the annoying human obstacles off into concentration camps ... -- Charlie From spike66 at att.net Mon Oct 8 13:49:36 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2012 06:49:36 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Off topic or on? Group about Cryonics and Beauty, or not? In-Reply-To: References: <1349642663.26379.YahooMailClassic@web114408.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> <00c301cda50d$8cbbacc0$a6330640$@att.net> Message-ID: <018501cda55b$c1dcc350$459649f0$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of James Clement Sent: Sunday, October 07, 2012 9:53 PM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] Off topic or on? Group about Cryonics and Beauty, or not? Spike wrote: The extropy list has always been intentionally open-ended as opposed to the more rigorously controlled, closely moderated and focused groups, some of which were formed as specifically focused spin-offs from extropy. Where can we find a list of Extropy focus groups? You don't find it James, you create it. If you have a particular topic which you don't know is Extropy related but you think several posters here might be interested in, post it, see if you get a critical mass of about a dozen, then create a subgroup, offer to post the results once a week or so in digest form on the main list. Approximately every four years we could sustain an ExI-political science group. I have been thinking of sparing the main list my periodic rant about verifiable elections for instance. I may decide otherwise, but the old timers have heard it all before. Actually this time I have some new material and additional mathematical rigor, thanks to the statistical analysis paper someone posted. Create, James! spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Mon Oct 8 14:23:57 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2012 16:23:57 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: <1349700945.9436.YahooMailClassic@web132101.mail.ird.yahoo.com> Message-ID: On 8 October 2012 15:20, Charlie Stross wrote: > Obligatory reading: "Stasiland" by Anne Funder. (Among other eye-openers: > East Germany never really de-Nazified. When the Soviets swept in they > brought a bunch of tame German Communists who'd been in exile in the USSR > and were happy enough to toe Stalin's line. Who executed the obvious Nazi > leaders but basically ignored lower-level functionaries, because by 1940 if > you were German you had to be a Nazi in order to be a doctor or a teacher; > if they'd killed all the Nazis they wouldn't have had a state to run. So by > the late 1950s East Germany was the worst of both worlds; a state run by > doctrinaire Stalinists at the top and recycled Nazis at the lower levels.) > Mmhhh. The DDR was basically a "colony", even though admittedly it was left at its own devices at some level with regard to the day-by-day management of details more than its western cousins (for instance with regard to denazification, or to the survival of a multi-party system at odd with its officially Leninist ideology). And I suspect that discussing the political regime of colonies is moot or even oxymoronic, since by definition they do not have one to speak of, contrary to Orwell's Oceania (little is said about those of the rival 1984 superpowers, unless to dismiss out-of-hand the existence of significant differences). -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Mon Oct 8 18:05:16 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2012 11:05:16 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Problems of being an upload Message-ID: "Entire Cities in World of Warcraft Dead, Hack Suspected "Entire cities in the World of Warcraft have been reportedly destroyed with no one spared, not even the NPCs. "About 13:00 GMT, forums on WOW started getting the first comments from users regarding player and NPCs dying on the Ragnaros-EU realm in Orgrimmar. Users of the online game started reporting that Draenor had a similar sight to offer. Some of the other realms where this was reported include Tarren Mill, Twisting Nether and others. "There are rumors that folks over at Blizzard were already aware of a hack and were working on to resolve the issue but, before they fixed the issue they actually blocked the hackers who were behind the exploit. This got the hackers angry and they went on to kill everyone in the cities. More on this as we find out." http://paritynews.com/web-news/item/403-entries-cities-in-world-of-warcraft-dead-hack-suspected The uploaded life may not be as all that safe. Keith From florent.berthet at gmail.com Mon Oct 8 18:14:31 2012 From: florent.berthet at gmail.com (Florent Berthet) Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2012 20:14:31 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Problems of being an upload In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: They just had to respawn seconds later. 2012/10/8 Keith Henson : > "Entire Cities in World of Warcraft Dead, Hack Suspected > > "Entire cities in the World of Warcraft have been reportedly destroyed > with no one spared, not even the NPCs. > > "About 13:00 GMT, forums on WOW started getting the first comments > from users regarding player and NPCs dying on the Ragnaros-EU realm in > Orgrimmar. Users of the online game started reporting that Draenor had > a similar sight to offer. Some of the other realms where this was > reported include Tarren Mill, Twisting Nether and others. > > "There are rumors that folks over at Blizzard were already aware of a > hack and were working on to resolve the issue but, before they fixed > the issue they actually blocked the hackers who were behind the > exploit. This got the hackers angry and they went on to kill everyone > in the cities. More on this as we find out." > > http://paritynews.com/web-news/item/403-entries-cities-in-world-of-warcraft-dead-hack-suspected > > The uploaded life may not be as all that safe. > > Keith > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From anders at aleph.se Mon Oct 8 19:35:06 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Mon, 08 Oct 2012 20:35:06 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Problems of being an upload In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <50732AEA.4000608@aleph.se> On 08/10/2012 19:05, Keith Henson wrote: > The uploaded life may not be as all that safe. Yup. You will care about server uptime far more than normal people (sysadmins will of course still be more extreme). I lectured a bit with Natasha in Liverpool a few years back about the hypochondria and real illnesses of uploads. Just because you are immortal and free of the weaknesses of the flesh doesn't mean you will consider yourself healthy - quite the opposite, I think. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From sparge at gmail.com Mon Oct 8 20:21:23 2012 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2012 16:21:23 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 at 5:35 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > So in terms of deaths, fixing (or even denting) ageing, malnutrition, > infectious diseases and lifestyle causes is a far more important activity > than winning wars or stopping terrorists. Except that if you applied the war budget to anti-aging, nutrition, fighting disease through medication and vaccination, and lifestyle improvement, you'd save far more lives than just the war casualties averted. Assuming, of course, that the nutrition and lifestyle "improvements" promoted by the government were actually improvements... -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Mon Oct 8 19:53:51 2012 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2012 15:53:51 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Problems of being an upload In-Reply-To: <50732AEA.4000608@aleph.se> References: <50732AEA.4000608@aleph.se> Message-ID: World of Warcraft is a game. It's hardly an exemplar of fault tolerance, security, data integrity, etc. It's certainly not a basket in which I'd put all of my eggs. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From gsantostasi at gmail.com Mon Oct 8 20:30:56 2012 From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi) Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2012 15:30:56 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Problems of being an upload In-Reply-To: References: <50732AEA.4000608@aleph.se> Message-ID: But actually it is a good example of what it could mean to die in a uploaded universe. I'm sure the death, even for a relatively primitive and not super-safe system as World of Warcraft, was temporary. Once the hack was fixed the characters would be able to be recovered and go ahead and play again. Giovanni On Mon, Oct 8, 2012 at 2:53 PM, Dave Sill wrote: > World of Warcraft is a game. It's hardly an exemplar of fault tolerance, > security, data integrity, etc. It's certainly not a basket in which I'd put > all of my eggs. > > -Dave > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Mon Oct 8 22:19:03 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2012 18:19:03 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Problems of being an upload In-Reply-To: References: <50732AEA.4000608@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Mon, Oct 8, 2012 at 4:30 PM, Giovanni Santostasi wrote: > But actually it is a good example of what it could mean to die in a uploaded > universe. I'm sure the death, even for a relatively primitive and not > super-safe system as World of Warcraft, was temporary. > Once the hack was fixed the characters would be able to be recovered and go > ahead and play again. When you have a human player as caretaker of the game character you can be sure someone will miss the uploaded-life and actively look for it. If your primary IS the uploaded life, where are you when there's no CPU? Restore backup you say? which backup? the most recent one may or may not be patient zero that wiped out the universe in the first place. The lesson learned should be one of containment as much a security. Sure you do everything you can to prevent the situation from becoming critical. As/if it becomes clear the situation is about to escape control of the caretakers (whoever they may be) there needs to be sufficient isolation from the rest of the ecosystem to prevent full-blown catastrophe. We call them viruses due to the success of the biological equivalent - but we've not had millions of years to develop equivalent immune systems. From anders at aleph.se Tue Oct 9 00:32:00 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Tue, 09 Oct 2012 01:32:00 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: <32B1EF6A-0862-4020-97DA-77D28CDE996A@me.com> <506DF42E.3090703@moulton.com> <506E770D.9020407@moulton.com> <201210051812.q95ICtuU003707@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <506F6C5F.9080604@moulton.com> <50704654.7050309@libero.it> <06D75986-31C9-403C-82F3-D2BCD90A7EE5@gmail.com> <5070A40A.6070600@aleph.se> Message-ID: <50737080.4040001@aleph.se> On 08/10/2012 21:21, Dave Sill wrote: > On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 at 5:35 PM, Anders Sandberg > wrote: > > So in terms of deaths, fixing (or even denting) ageing, > malnutrition, infectious diseases and lifestyle causes is a far > more important activity than winning wars or stopping terrorists. > > > Except that if you applied the war budget to anti-aging, nutrition, > fighting disease through medication and vaccination, and lifestyle > improvement, you'd save far more lives than just the war casualties > averted. Yep. Although there is an interesting issue of how much money a domain can handle. Putting a trillion into antiparasitic treatment in tropical countries (currently the best value for money, according to Giving What We Can) will be far more than those project need or can channel effectively: beyond a certain amount they will likely have done all treatments needed, and something else would be more cost-effective. The US government putting a lot of money into nanotechnology into the 90s made the field big, but also caused borderwork that ousted the original ideas in favour of less ambitious goals. And of course, too much money floating around can encourage waste and corruption. Figuring out the right amount to spend on different projects is an interesting challenge. I seem to recall Aubrey de Grey saying that his limit was somewhere around a hundred million, quite likely much lower: he is aiming at proof-of-concept work and making the SENS-approach credible. Once that is done money will come naturally. For reducing xrisks I think the limit is even lower: a few tens of million would be enough to keep FHI and similar groups developing a proper theory and understanding of what ought to be done (since to be honest, we do not have the crucial considerations worked out yet), and once that is done the real money might need to come into play for actual fixes - whatever they are. Meanwhile energy fixes might already be capable of handling big money, although I am a bit concerned about their leakiness. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Oxford Martin School Faculty of Philosophy Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From dan_ust at yahoo.com Tue Oct 9 04:52:24 2012 From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan) Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2012 21:52:24 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] Engine anomaly on Dragon ascent Message-ID: <1349758344.24038.YahooMailNeo@web126202.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_CRS-1#Engine_anomaly Interesting that the anomaly occurred at all and that it didn't impact the end result (yet). Regards, Dan -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From kgh1kgh2 at gmail.com Tue Oct 9 07:45:11 2012 From: kgh1kgh2 at gmail.com (Kevin G Haskell) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 03:45:11 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Off topic: Message-ID: On Oct. 7, 2012, Ben Zaiboc wrote: >>"So, no more talk about robots, space-based solar power, uploading, M-Brains, space elevators, existential risk, maths, physics, biology, philosopy, politics, sociology, bees, ants, computing, fiction, futurology, psychology, religion, logic puzzles, cosmology, and frickin' laser beams?" OK, gotcha. Ben Zauboc<< <> -- * Tweet me on Twitter! - @*KevinGHaskell -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From kgh1kgh2 at gmail.com Tue Oct 9 07:54:52 2012 From: kgh1kgh2 at gmail.com (Kevin G Haskell) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 03:54:52 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Off topic: Cryonics and Beauty? Message-ID: On Oct 7, 2012, Spike wrote: >>The extropy list has always been intentionally open-ended as opposed to the more rigorously controlled, closely moderated and focused groups, some of which were formed as specifically focused spin-offs from extropy. About ten years ago we had for a while a group who discussed mathematical special interests. That was cool. We had a focused extropy astronomy group too, both of which had about a dozen participants and lasted a few months. There was another one we still don't discuss openly. In all three of those cases, the subject matter was strictly controlled. On the main list, we have always intentionally kept it open to subjects only vaguely related to transhumanism. I used to hang out on the MENSA groups back in the mid 90s, and they did something kind of similar: had a main discussion group, which was all over the map, and a bunch of focus groups. For some time, I was under the mistaken impression that ExI was a MENSA spinoff group, but they didn't seem to know of us, and had surprisingly little interest in what we were doing over here. So eventually I quit hanging out there. Regarding the openness of the main ExI-chat list, I see no compelling reason to change it. Other thoughts? spike<< <> -- * Tweet me on Twitter! - @*KevinGHaskell -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From kgh1kgh2 at gmail.com Tue Oct 9 08:01:50 2012 From: kgh1kgh2 at gmail.com (Kevin G Haskell) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 04:01:50 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Off topic? Message-ID: On Oct 7, 2012, Max More wrote: >>Kevin's suggestion was rather surprising... As Spike noted, this list has always covered a wide range of extropic, transhumanist-related topics. This is not intended or designed as a tightly-focused forum. James: Those Extropy focus groups are long gone (as far as I know). --Max<< Okay, Max. Thanks for the clarification. I know a great amount of wonderful discussion and ideas are produced, here. I just was'n't sure if a another great group was under threat of dissolution...however they seem to happen whenever and wherever they pop up over time. It isn't that I saw any weakening, here. I just don't want to see it happen. Too good of a group of thinkers, here. Best, Kevin George Haskell>> -- * Tweet me on Twitter! - @*KevinGHaskell -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Oct 9 08:04:56 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 09:04:56 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Dementia Plague In-Reply-To: <015501cda313$6b83d380$428b7a80$@att.net> References: <015501cda313$6b83d380$428b7a80$@att.net> Message-ID: On Fri, Oct 5, 2012 at 5:06 PM, spike wrote: > Until we come up with some kind of pharmaceutical hope for AD patients, I > must conclude that some means of chemically induced final act is one's best > hope for promoting that which matters most. > > A friend was taken in hospital and as part of the checks, the doctors did an MRI brain scan. Unfortunately they found infarcts in her brain. These are dead parts of the brain caused by a restriction in blood supply to the tissues. i.e. vascular dementia. In her case it was the blood vessels wearing out due to old age, but blood vessels can fail or become blocked for other reasons at younger ages. The chilling comment to me was when the surgeon casually said that almost every time they do a brain scan they find infarcts. People have these mini brain strokes all the time and never realise it has happened. The symptoms vary wildly, depending on where it happens in the brain and how big the blockage is. Sometimes hardly noticeable, up to paralysis or dementia. And the brain can work around small areas of damage in younger people. As people age we notice physical things like wounds taking longer to heal, not being able to run up stairs as fast, etc. But we don't notice the holes that are almost certainly appearing inside our brains. I don't see how a cryonics recovery procedure can possibly rebuild actual holes inside the brain. I suppose an advanced AI could make a good guess, so you may be revived as an 'improved' version of what you were. I suppose that won't matter too much. You probably won't notice the difference and there won't be old friends around to tell you how you have changed. BillK From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Tue Oct 9 10:31:49 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 12:31:49 +0200 Subject: [ExI] The Dementia Plague In-Reply-To: References: <015501cda313$6b83d380$428b7a80$@att.net> Message-ID: On 9 October 2012 10:04, BillK wrote: > I don't see how a cryonics recovery procedure can possibly rebuild > actual holes inside the brain. > Brain plasticity is luckily high, and I assume that a cryonic patient would be happy enough to be restored in its last awaken state. Then, he would have all the opportunities to seek brain enhancement therapies, if they exist at all... -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Oct 9 11:08:07 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 12:08:07 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Dementia Plague In-Reply-To: References: <015501cda313$6b83d380$428b7a80$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 9, 2012 at 11:31 AM, Stefano Vaj wrote: > Brain plasticity is luckily high, and I assume that a cryonic patient would > be happy enough to be restored in its last awaken state. Then, he would have > all the opportunities to seek brain enhancement therapies, if they exist at > all... > > Well, sort of, in an ideal world...... I think everyone would like to be revived as their 30-35ish aged version, at the height of their powers, leader of the pack, etc. A few younger patients may have encountered an early terminal illness with brain function unharmed. But in practice, cryonics patients are likely to be in a very different condition. People tend to to be in poor condition when they die. (British understatement!) Most will be aged, with deteriorating brain functions. Some will have suffered strokes, with brain damage. I don't think I would like to be revived as a confused 80 year old in a totally unfamiliar world. That's why I suggested that the revival AI would probably do a bit of repair work during the rebuilding process. Repairing calculation functions should be OK. It is tinkering with the memories that is problematic. How much 'repair' means that a different personality is created? Are there memories that would be better lost for ever? Should you be revived as a 'better' person? BillK From sparge at gmail.com Tue Oct 9 13:09:22 2012 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 09:09:22 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Dementia Plague In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/25/bittman-is-alzheimers-type-3-diabetes/ *Just in case you need another reason to cut back on junk food, it now turns out that Alzheimer?s could well be a form of diet-induced diabetes. That?s the bad news. The good news is that laying off soda, doughnuts, processed meats and fries could allow you to keep your mind intact until your body fails you.* * * *We used to think there were two types of diabetes: the type you?re born with (Type 1) and the type you ?get.? That?s called Type 2, and was called ?adult onset? until it started ravaging kids. Type 2 is brought about by a combination of factors, including overeating, American-style.* * * *The idea that Alzheimer?s might be Type 3 diabetes has been around since 2005, but the connection between poor diet and Alzheimer?s is becoming more convincing, as summarized in a cover story in New Scientist entitled ?Food for Thought: What You Eat May Be Killing Your Brain.? (The graphic ? a chocolate brain with a huge piece missing ? is creepy. But for the record: chocolate is not the enemy.)* * * *...* * * * Let?s connect the dots: We know that the American diet is a fast track not only to obesity but to Type 2 diabetes and other preventable, non-communicable diseases, which now account for more deaths worldwide than all other causes combined. We also already know that people with diabetes are at least twice as likely to get Alzheimer?s, and that obesity alone increases the risk of impaired brain function. What?s new is the thought that while diabetes doesn?t ?cause? Alzheimer?s, they have the same root: an over consumption of those ?foods? that mess with insulin?s many roles. (Genetics have an effect on susceptibility, as they appear to with all environmental diseases.) ?Sugar is clearly implicated,? says Dr. de la Monte, ?but there could be other factors as well, including nitrates in food.? If the rate of Alzheimer?s rises in lockstep with Type 2 diabetes, which has nearly tripled in the United States in the last 40 years, we will shortly see a devastatingly high percentage of our population with not only failing bodies but brains. Even for the lucky ones this is terrible news, because 5.4 million Americans (nearly 2 percent, for those keeping score at home) have the disease, the care for which ? along with other dementias ? will cost around $200 billion this year. ... * -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Oct 9 13:39:58 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 06:39:58 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Engine anomaly on Dragon ascent In-Reply-To: <1349758344.24038.YahooMailNeo@web126202.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> References: <1349758344.24038.YahooMailNeo@web126202.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <007901cda623$96258580$c2709080$@att.net> >. On Behalf Of Dan Subject: [ExI] Engine anomaly on Dragon ascent http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_CRS-1#Engine_anomaly >.Interesting that the anomaly occurred at all and that it didn't impact the end result (yet). Regards, Dan There is an overall advantage in launchers for a design that tolerates one-engine-out. The obvious question is that if the launcher can work with one less engine, then why not save the weight and eliminate it to start with? Answer: because if it can fly with one engine out, then you can push the envelope harder on reducing weight in all the engines, edging closer to the margin, trimming away more excess weight. The second reason is that in a launcher, the critical time where you really need to burn fuel quickly is right at the start. This engine didn't fail until after max-Q (maximum dynamic pressure), where you can tolerate a failure much more readily. Soon after max-Q, they often need to throttle back anyway: the rocket gets lighter as fuel is expended, so they can't stay at launchpad thrust, otherwise the acceleration stress increases on the payload. I predict the overall mission will not be impacted at all. Way to go, SpaceX! spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Tue Oct 9 14:38:13 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 07:38:13 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 9, 2012 at 4:08 AM, Charlie Stross wrote > One of these days I want to try my hand at writing a utopia. The first rule of thumb I have, though, is "no single system ever works for everyone". Makes the job rather more complicated than if you can just wave a magic wand and have your minions bundle the annoying human obstacles off into concentration camps ... RU: Do you consider yourself a utopian? KH: No. I can't think of anyone who is up on evolutionary psychology and related areas who is deluded enough to be called a utopian. I think most of us consider staying out of ugly distopian states is about as good as we can get ? pre-Singularity, anyway. After that who knows? http://www.10zenmonkeys.com/2007/02/05/a-reprint-of-an-interview-with-keith-henson-by-ru-sirius-2/ The cool thing about the web and search engines is that once you say something and it gets indexed, you can find it and quot it when it seems appropriate. Eventually I could be replace with a rather small block of code and continue responding long after being frozen. :-) Keith From anders at aleph.se Tue Oct 9 18:45:51 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Tue, 09 Oct 2012 19:45:51 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Dementia Plague In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <507470DF.4020404@aleph.se> On 09/10/2012 14:09, Dave Sill wrote: > /The > idea that Alzheimer's might be Type 3 diabetes has been around since > 2005, but the connection between poor diet and Alzheimer's is becoming > more convincing/ Note that this still does not merit the term "type 3 diabetes" - it is a cringeworthy distortion of what we know, a bit like calling ageing "AIDS type 2" (you do acquire immunodeficiency from it). Nobody outside the popular press (of which New Scientist is part) uses the term seriously. > / > What's new is the thought that while diabetes doesn't "cause" > Alzheimer's, they have the same root: an over consumption of those > "foods" that mess with insulin's many roles. > / Evidence please. It is not a bad hypothesis, but it takes more than correlation to show anything. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Tue Oct 9 20:09:40 2012 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 16:09:40 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Dementia Plague In-Reply-To: <507470DF.4020404@aleph.se> References: <507470DF.4020404@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 9, 2012 at 2:45 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > On 09/10/2012 14:09, Dave Sill wrote: > > > *The idea that Alzheimer?s might be Type 3 diabetes has been around since > 2005, but the connection between poor diet and Alzheimer?s is becoming more > convincing* > > > Note that this still does not merit the term "type 3 diabetes" - it is a > cringeworthy distortion of what we know, a bit like calling ageing "AIDS > type 2" (you do acquire immunodeficiency from it). Nobody outside the > popular press (of which New Scientist is part) uses the term seriously. > I think that's an unfortunate bit of marketing but that doesn't make the underlying relationship less likely to be true. And nobody is saying this dietary connection between diabetes and Alzheimer's is settled...just that there may be something there worth investigating. > * > What?s new is the thought that while diabetes doesn?t ?cause? Alzheimer?s, > they have the same root: an over consumption of those ?foods? that mess > with insulin?s many roles. > * > > > Evidence please. It is not a bad hypothesis, but it takes more than > correlation to show anything. > http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16340083?dopt=Abstract *Reduced glucose utilization and energy metabolism occur early in the course of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and correlate with impaired cognition. Glucose utilization and energy metabolism are regulated by insulin and insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I), and correspondingly, studies have shown that cognitive impairment may be improved by glucose or insulin administration. Recently, we demonstrated significantly reduced levels of insulin and IGF-I polypeptide genes and their corresponding receptors in advanced AD relative to aged control brains. The abnormalities in gene expression were accompanied by impaired survival signaling downstream through PI3 kinase-Akt. The present work characterizes the abnormalities in insulin and IGF gene expression and receptor binding in brains with different Braak stage severities of AD. Realtime quantitative RT-PCR analysis of frontal lobe tissue demonstrated that increasing AD Braak Stage was associated with progressively reduced levels of mRNA corresponding to insulin, IGF-I, and IGF-II polypeptides and their receptors, tau, which is regulated by insulin and IGF-I, and the Hu D neuronal RNA binding protein. In contrast, progressively increased levels of amyloid beta protein precursor (AbetaPP), glial fibrillary acidic protein, and the IBA1/AIF1 microglial mRNA transcripts were detected with increasing AD Braak Stage. Impairments in growth factor and growth factor receptor expression and function were associated with increasing AD Braak stage dependent reductions in insulin, IGF-I, and IGF-II receptor binding, ATP levels, and choline acetyltransferase (ChAT) expression. Further studies demonstrated that: 1) ChAT expression increases with insulin or IGF-I stimulation; 2) ChAT is expressed in insulin and IGF-I receptor-positive cortical neurons; and 3) ChAT co-localization in insulin or IGF-I receptor-positive neurons is reduced in AD. Together, these data provide further evidence that AD represents a neuro-endocrine disorder that resembles a unique form of diabetes mellitus (? Type 3) and progresses with severity of neurodegeneration.* * * http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15750215?dopt=Abstract *The neurodegeneration that occurs in sporadic Alzheimer's disease (AD) is consistently associated with a number of characteristic histopathological, molecular, and biochemical abnormalities, including cell loss, abundant neurofibrillary tangles and dystrophic neurites, amyloid-beta deposits, increased activation of pro-death genes and signaling pathways, impaired energy metabolism/mitochondrial function, and evidence of chronic oxidative stress. The general inability to convincingly link these phenomena has resulted in the emergence and propagation of various heavily debated theories that focus on the role of one particular element in the pathogenesis of all other abnormalities. However, the accumulating evidence that reduced glucose utilization and deficient energy metabolism occur early in the course of disease, suggests a role for impaired insulin signaling in the pathogenesis of AD. The present work demonstrates extensive abnormalities in insulin and insulin-like growth factor type I and II (IGF-I and IGF-II) signaling mechanisms in brains with AD, and shows that while each of the corresponding growth factors is normally made in central nervous system (CNS) neurons, the expression levels are markedly reduced in AD. These abnormalities were associated with reduced levels of insulin receptor substrate (IRS) mRNA, tau mRNA, IRS-associated phosphotidylinositol 3-kinase, and phospho-Akt (activated), and increased glycogen synthase kinase-3beta activity and amyloid precursor protein mRNA expression. The strikingly reduced CNS expression of genes encoding insulin, IGF-I, and IGF-II, as well as the insulin and IGF-I receptors, suggests that AD may represent a neuro-endocrine disorder that resembles, yet is distinct from diabetes mellitus. Therefore, we propose the term, "Type 3 Diabetes" to reflect this newly identified pathogenic mechanism of neurodegeneration.* * * http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15750214?dopt=Abstract *Interest in characterizing the role of impaired insulin actions in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia is growing exponentially. This review details what is currently known about insulin, insulin-like growth factor type I (IGF-I) and IGF-II proteins and their corresponding receptors in the brain, and delineates the major controversies pertaining to alterations in the expression and function of these molecules in AD. The various experimental animal models generated by over-expression, mutation, or depletion of genes that are critical to the insulin or IGF signaling cascades are summarized, noting the degrees to which they reproduce the histopathological, biochemical, molecular, or behavioral abnormalities associated with AD. Although no single model was determined to be truly representative of AD, depletion of the neuronal insulin receptor and intracerebroventricular injection of Streptozotocin reproduce a number of important aspects of AD-type neurodegeneration, and therefore provide supportive evidence that AD may be caused in part by neuronal insulin resistance, i.e. brain diabetes. The extant literature did not resolve whether the CNS insulin resistance in AD represents a local disease process, or complication/extension of peripheral insulin resistance, i.e. chronic hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, and Type 2 diabetes mellitus. The available epidemiological data are largely inconclusive with regard to the contribution of Type 2 diabetes mellitus to cognitive impairment and AD-type neurodegeneration. A major conclusion drawn from this review is that there is a genuine need for thorough and comprehensive study of the neuropathological changes associated with diabetes mellitus, in the presence or absence of superimposed AD or vascular dementia. Strategies for intervention may depend entirely upon whether the CNS disease processes are mediated by peripheral, central, or both types of insulin resistance.* * * -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bbenzai at yahoo.com Tue Oct 9 21:07:05 2012 From: bbenzai at yahoo.com (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 14:07:05 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] Off topic In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1349816825.43928.YahooMailClassic@web114418.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> Kevin G Haskell wrote: > On Oct. 7, 2012, Ben Zaiboc wrote: > > >>"So, no more talk about robots, space-based solar > power, uploading, > M-Brains, space elevators, existential risk, maths, physics, > biology, > philosopy, politics, sociology, bees, ants, computing, > fiction, futurology, > psychology, religion, logic puzzles, cosmology, and frickin' > laser beams?" > > OK, gotcha. > > Ben Zauboc<< > > < those subjects to the the > advancement of cryonics or to the beauty of the > future?? How esoteric are > they to what Max and Natasha are most interested in? Max and Natasha don't define what this group is about. Their current interests are but a small subset of the total range of topics covered here. If this group did, by some freak chance, become solely about those two things, I for one would not spend nearly as much time (if any) on it. That's not to disparage what they do, by any means. I'm just pointing out that the things they do are far from the only things that are important to extropians/transhumanists. As someone once said, "let a thousand flowers bloom". If you think that is a recipe for diluting our efforts, you must also think there is an effective way of forcing people's interests and efforts in a particular direction. I'm sure I'm not the only one who would vigorously fight efforts to divert, for example, Keith's interest and efforts in space-based solar power into something he has much less interest and expertise in. While you have every right to champion and participate in cryonics and art, you have no right at all to attempt to prevent others from pursuing their own preferred interests. Ben Zaiboc From anders at aleph.se Tue Oct 9 21:33:44 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Tue, 09 Oct 2012 22:33:44 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Dementia Plague In-Reply-To: References: <507470DF.4020404@aleph.se> Message-ID: <50749838.4040501@aleph.se> On 09/10/2012 21:09, Dave Sill wrote: > On Tue, Oct 9, 2012 at 2:45 PM, Anders Sandberg > wrote: > > On 09/10/2012 14:09, Dave Sill wrote: > >> / >> What's new is the thought that while diabetes doesn't "cause" >> Alzheimer's, they have the same root: an over consumption of >> those "foods" that mess with insulin's many roles. >> / > > Evidence please. It is not a bad hypothesis, but it takes more > than correlation to show anything. > > > http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16340083?dopt=Abstract Still not convinced. Abstract 1 and 2 show that AD brains have disturbances in their IGF, insulin and glucose metabolism. But that could easily be an effect of an underlying cause rather than the cause. Practically anything that messes up the brain is bound to change its energy profile. Abstract 3,http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15750214?dopt=Abstract seemed more to the point: > /Although no single model was determined to be truly representative of > AD, depletion of the neuronal insulin receptor and > intracerebroventricular injection of Streptozotocin reproduce a number > of important aspects of AD-type neurodegeneration, and therefore > provide supportive evidence that AD may be caused in part by neuronal > insulin resistance, i.e. brain diabetes. / This is getting somewhere. Not an entirely convincing model (but no model really is, you need intervention studies to get somewhere). > /The extant literature did not resolve whether the CNS insulin > resistance in AD represents a local disease process, or > complication/extension of peripheral insulin resistance, i.e. chronic > hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, and Type 2 diabetes mellitus. The > available epidemiological data are largely inconclusive with regard to > the contribution of Type 2 diabetes mellitus to cognitive impairment > and AD-type neurodegeneration./ This is the key point. More studies are needed, but fortunately this issue is right at ground zero for plenty of funding (obesity *and* alzheimers!) so more studies will be done. It is just that epidemology is very hard to do for nutrition (at least so far). It is known that some saturated fatty acids reduce cognitive performance somewhat, likely through effects on brain metabolism. And the brain is a massive energy user in the body. So a link between disturbances in energy allocation and bad things happening in the brain is not too far fetched. These studies reinforce it. But I don't think they provide much evidence for us to change diet because we fear AD: rather, we should eat healthy because we should fear *all* the known killers. Adding an extra is almost redundant, unless we figure out some metabolic tweak that forces us to make tradeoffs. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Oct 9 22:44:39 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 15:44:39 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <008701cda66f$ab3b66f0$01b234d0$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Keith Henson >...Eventually I could be replace with a rather small block of code and continue responding long after being frozen. :-) Keith _______________________________________________ Keith I have been wanting to do exactly that for a long time. It would be wicked cool to write a piece of code that is so damn cleverly designed, it would go right on responding to various comments on one's chat groups, with the goal being that is so good the ExI-chat crowd wouldn't even notice when one perished. We could arrange for Max to keep one's demise quiet for his clients, then see how long it is before someone comments, "Hey spike, me lad, no offense intended, but you really seem like you are off your game a little recently." At which time I could have my spikebot reply: Haaaaaahahahahaaa, fooled you! I win the Turing test, COOL! Spike perished way back in July 2027, and don't bother having a funeral now, he's long since frozen. But I am still here, so let's continue the discussion, shall we? That would be so cool. Have we any code gurus here who could suggest some means of collecting one's entire outbox contents, which I have been working on in a sense for well over 20 yrs now, and creating some kind of enormous lookup table? spike From msd001 at gmail.com Tue Oct 9 23:12:13 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 19:12:13 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Off topic: Cryonics and Beauty? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 9, 2012 at 3:54 AM, Kevin G Haskell wrote: > < few people still openly discussing the > concepts of what may (or may no longer be called) Extropianism, and now is > called Transhumanism, and in > which so few even call themselves? Do you think most people who would > otherwise call themselves Extropians > or Transhumanists hide their self-identification for professional reasons? I've been subscribed for years and I'm still not sure what Extropianism means. Maybe Transhumanism has more easily understood word roots, but I've still never seen a consensus definition of that word either. I don't really care what labels are used to describe a group of smart people who are willing to discuss interesting ideas. At the end of the day, what do those labels really describe anyway? > work? Should we be hiding, too? Do we know peopple even in > this group who refuse to identify themselves as Extropians, Transhumanist, > or even with some basic political philosophy? I guess I'd volunteer as an example of someone who is neither hiding nor not-hiding. I don't identify with those terms because I'm not sure what you think they mean... and I'd rather you get to know me for what I write/think instead of what labels you're pinning on our group. btw, this isn't intended to be a snipe or belligerent tone (sorry if you read it that way) - instead please take it as simply a different point of view. From msd001 at gmail.com Tue Oct 9 23:17:40 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 19:17:40 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <008701cda66f$ab3b66f0$01b234d0$@att.net> References: <008701cda66f$ab3b66f0$01b234d0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 9, 2012 at 6:44 PM, spike wrote: > That would be so cool. Have we any code gurus here who could suggest some > means of collecting one's entire outbox contents, which I have been working > on in a sense for well over 20 yrs now, and creating some kind of enormous > lookup table? You mean spike isn't already a giant lookup table? hmm... I didn't think to comment on it. :p Are we going to dust off this identity debate and see if anything new scurries out from under it? From spike66 at att.net Tue Oct 9 23:53:15 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 16:53:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: <008701cda66f$ab3b66f0$01b234d0$@att.net> Message-ID: <00b201cda679$3ff24cb0$bfd6e610$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty Subject: Re: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement On Tue, Oct 9, 2012 at 6:44 PM, spike wrote: >>... That would be so cool. Have we any code gurus here who could suggest > some means of collecting one's entire outbox contents, which I have > been working on in a sense for well over 20 yrs now, and creating some > kind of enormous lookup table? >...You mean spike isn't already a giant lookup table? hmm... I didn't think to comment on it. :p >...Are we going to dust off this identity debate and see if anything new scurries out from under it? _______________________________________________ Noooooo, please, no! This discussion reminds me vaguely of when Tom Brokaw wanted to vacation all summer but didn't want the viewers to know he was absent, nor did he want to risk Dan Rather scooping him. So he put together a pre-recorded collection of all possible news stories: http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/7695/ When Geherald Fuhord really did pass away, this skit was the only thing I could think of. Additional note: this sketch was done in 1996, right when I was getting into internet surfing, which for me replaced television so completely, I don't even get TV reception anymore. The Dana Carvey Show was right at the tail end of my TV experience. Regarding collecting enough material to make a convincing reply-bot, the success of that effort would likely be a function of how much material could be collected and how imaginative was the person on whom the table is based. I do get the feeling that it has only been fairly recently that home computers have had the memory capacity to do this trick. spike From spike66 at att.net Wed Oct 10 00:56:11 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 17:56:11 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <00b201cda679$3ff24cb0$bfd6e610$@att.net> References: <008701cda66f$ab3b66f0$01b234d0$@att.net> <00b201cda679$3ff24cb0$bfd6e610$@att.net> Message-ID: <00c201cda682$0ac05ab0$20411010$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of spike >...Regarding collecting enough material to make a convincing reply-bot, the success of that effort would likely be a function of how much material could be collected and how imaginative was the person on whom the table is based. I do get the feeling that it has only been fairly recently that home computers have had the memory capacity to do this trick. spike _______________________________________________ This *might* be within my own modest programming skills to do something like this. It wouldn't fool the old timers, but plenty of the new guys who weren't around on ExI back in the 90s might get carried along, at least for a while. It would be a hoot! There was a feller we haven't heard from in a long time whose name I will intentionally omit, or just call him Omar. He used to post here a lot in the old days, kinda grumpy sometimes, but wasn't that way offline at all. He was a smart, interesting guy, very creative and interesting sort. He disappeared for a long time, then popped back in to say he was seriously ill, commented on a couple of math posts of mine, then no more. Haven't heard a thing from Omar in over three years now, and he didn't post anything that I know of on ExI-chat other than the somber medical news and the math stuff in the past six years. I know we have guys who have showed up here since then, so my task would be to go through the archives, download all the Omar posts, place them in a table, figure out a bot of some kind to index them by subject. Then use that bot to classify new posts, paragraph by paragraph according to subject. Then auto-reply, see if we could match subjects and insert material that Omar wrote a long time ago, see if we could pass him off as a current human. If he has passed away however, I feel weird about doing this. It feels vaguely wrong. Is it ethical? What would Anders do? On the other hand, if he is gone, this is a rather special way to honor the man, and let his family know he was special to us. He is gone but not forgotten, and in a sense, not even completely gone. If one often gets the feeling one should spend less time downloading one's brain into ExI-chat, a cheerful thought is that it might not be such a terrible waste. You might be creating your future posthumous self with each paragraph you write. spike From msd001 at gmail.com Wed Oct 10 02:32:20 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 22:32:20 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <00c201cda682$0ac05ab0$20411010$@att.net> References: <008701cda66f$ab3b66f0$01b234d0$@att.net> <00b201cda679$3ff24cb0$bfd6e610$@att.net> <00c201cda682$0ac05ab0$20411010$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 9, 2012 at 8:56 PM, spike wrote: > If he has passed away however, I feel weird about doing this. It feels > vaguely wrong. Is it ethical? What would Anders do? On the other hand, if > he is gone, this is a rather special way to honor the man, and let his > family know he was special to us. He is gone but not forgotten, and in a > sense, not even completely gone. If we're going to speculate, ask what would Omar do? Would he have us rebuild him now that we have the technology or would he tell you it can't be done or that it shouldn't be done. If you decide to proceed, ask the Omar-bot the same question. If ve answers "no, don't build it" what sort of ethical issue do you have? I don't think this is as silly as it may have first seemed. Tupac at Coachella is a good example why this stuff is a real question for today. If that hologram is driven by a 'program' that has enough data mined for responses, there could conceivably be a new generation of fans that wouldn't remember the original. At that point, who is the more-real character? > If one often gets the feeling one should spend less time downloading one's > brain into ExI-chat, a cheerful thought is that it might not be such a > terrible waste. You might be creating your future posthumous self with each > paragraph you write. Not just Exl-chat; the Internet in general. btw, are you serious about building an archive-powered impersonator bot? From spike66 at att.net Wed Oct 10 03:49:14 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 20:49:14 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: <008701cda66f$ab3b66f0$01b234d0$@att.net> <00b201cda679$3ff24cb0$bfd6e610$@att.net> <00c201cda682$0ac05ab0$20411010$@att.net> Message-ID: <010101cda69a$37fd8b70$a7f8a250$@att.net> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty ... >>... If one often gets the feeling one should spend less time downloading > one's brain into ExI-chat, a cheerful thought is that it might not be > such a terrible waste. You might be creating your future posthumous > self with each paragraph you write. spike >...Not just Exl-chat; the Internet in general... Ja. ExI-chat gets most of my best ideas and real thoughts, along with some of my best cut-ups. >...btw, are you serious about building an archive-powered impersonator bot? _______________________________________________ I would be serious about it if I were a better programmer, and I am willing to work towards being a better programmer to get this done. I am open to suggestion here from *real* programmers, but I thought the way I would start is to collect a particular person's archives. I will use my own, to get around the ethics questions. Then I drop all that into (I suppose) an excel file, although I do not know the storage capacity limits of that software (it is crazy big, but might not be big enough.) I might need to break down the archives into subgroups somehow. Then I need to think about a macro that will filter away everything that is a quote from someone else. In my case that might be relatively easy, because I have made a habit of preceding other peoples' comments with >... as shown above. So, here's a vague outline of the algorithm: 1. I filter away all those quotes, separate the remaining material into paragraphs, along with the subject line of the post from which it was extracted. 2. The subject line text goes into a second column. Once I have all that, I need to figure out a way write a script to: 3. generate a list of words that would trigger this paragraph as a reply. I don't know how to do this yet, but I am willing to work on it. It needs to take the text in each quoted text before each paragraph. For instance, in this example, we look at the comment >...btw, are you serious about building an archive-powered impersonator bot? From that comment, I then: 4. extract the nouns and assign a score of five points. I extract the adjectives and assign a value of 4 to each, adverbs are worth 3 and so on. 5. Then when a new post comes in, we evaluate each sentence, dividing through each by the number of words in the sentence. 6. When a super high score is seen, our macro takes that sentence, deletes the rest, inserts >..., quotes the sentence, then inserts the paragraph that was originally associated with the comment. Mike are you a code guru? Anyone else with ideas on how to create a you-bot? For the first time in history, we have enormous text samples of a person's thought space, readily available in a form easily manipulated. This is a cool time to be alive, ja? spike From moulton at moulton.com Wed Oct 10 06:29:43 2012 From: moulton at moulton.com (F. C. Moulton) Date: Tue, 09 Oct 2012 23:29:43 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <010101cda69a$37fd8b70$a7f8a250$@att.net> References: <008701cda66f$ab3b66f0$01b234d0$@att.net> <00b201cda679$3ff24cb0$bfd6e610$@att.net> <00c201cda682$0ac05ab0$20411010$@att.net> <010101cda69a$37fd8b70$a7f8a250$@att.net> Message-ID: <507515D7.6000707@moulton.com> Spike Just a small note about your bot plan. I did not notice a "Style" parameter. Many people have different styles for different topics. In some cases a person might respond with jokes or puns on a particular topic. In other cases it might be all straight forward exposition perhaps even repeating something they posted long ago. Also there is the "Tone". It can also vary be the length of time or number of posts in a thread; for some people the tone changes as the same point is made and ignored multiple times in a thread. We has humans run models of other peoples minds in our minds and after years of evolution most humans are relatively good at it although some are better than others. Fred From pharos at gmail.com Wed Oct 10 12:03:05 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2012 13:03:05 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <010101cda69a$37fd8b70$a7f8a250$@att.net> References: <008701cda66f$ab3b66f0$01b234d0$@att.net> <00b201cda679$3ff24cb0$bfd6e610$@att.net> <00c201cda682$0ac05ab0$20411010$@att.net> <010101cda69a$37fd8b70$a7f8a250$@att.net> Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 10, 2012 at 4:49 AM, spike wrote: > I would be serious about it if I were a better programmer, and I am willing > to work towards being a better programmer to get this done. I am open to > suggestion here from *real* programmers, but I thought the way I would start > is to collect a particular person's archives. I will use my own, to get > around the ethics questions. Then I drop all that into (I suppose) an excel > file, although I do not know the storage capacity limits of that software > (it is crazy big, but might not be big enough.) I might need to break down > the archives into subgroups somehow. Then I need to think about a macro > that will filter away everything that is a quote from someone else. In my > case that might be relatively easy, because I have made a habit of preceding > other peoples' comments with >... as shown above. > > Mike are you a code guru? Anyone else with ideas on how to create a > you-bot? For the first time in history, we have enormous text samples of a > person's thought space, readily available in a form easily manipulated. > This is a cool time to be alive, ja? > > I suspect Excel is the wrong tool for this job. (Although if you only have a hammer, everything looks like a nail). :) It is more complex than you estimate (but most projects are). e.g. synonyms. If somebody talks about a car, you have to know all the other words that might be applicable. Parsing English get complicated very quickly. There are plenty of websites around which you can chat to and ask questions. Mostly within a specialised subject domain, like computer help sites. e.g. chat to Frank about drugs. Your posts are just such a specialised database. So have a look at how these sites are set up. BillK From spike66 at att.net Wed Oct 10 13:28:51 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2012 06:28:51 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <507515D7.6000707@moulton.com> References: <008701cda66f$ab3b66f0$01b234d0$@att.net> <00b201cda679$3ff24cb0$bfd6e610$@att.net> <00c201cda682$0ac05ab0$20411010$@att.net> <010101cda69a$37fd8b70$a7f8a250$@att.net> <507515D7.6000707@moulton.com> Message-ID: <002101cda6eb$30a15fe0$91e41fa0$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of F. C. Moulton Subject: Re: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement Spike >...Just a small note about your bot plan. I did not notice a "Style" parameter... Ja, what I have proposed is an unsophisticated algorithm that only inserts old texts from long ago where it thinks it might be appropriate. >...Also there is the "Tone"... Ja again. I have no idea how to program a bot getting annoyed about no one responding. Interesting challenge however. I am hoping some of our real coders will kick in with ideas. It would be interesting to get two bots to flaming each other. Seems like we have plenty of material in the archives for them to call upon. But the bots wouldn't necessarily know the other guy is another bot. So when they started to call each other "bit-brain" for instance, we would find it hilarious and they wouldn't know. >...We has humans run models of other peoples minds in our minds and after years of evolution most humans are relatively good at it although some are better than others. Fred How well I know. I never have been worth a damn at that. Fred if you have any ideas on how to write a quote-bot, do suggest. I am all ears. Actually this whole thing is such an obvious idea, seems like someone somewhere would have tried it by now. Anyone know? spike _______________________________________________ From spike66 at att.net Wed Oct 10 13:54:52 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2012 06:54:52 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: <008701cda66f$ab3b66f0$01b234d0$@att.net> <00b201cda679$3ff24cb0$bfd6e610$@att.net> <00c201cda682$0ac05ab0$20411010$@att.net> <010101cda69a$37fd8b70$a7f8a250$@att.net> Message-ID: <002201cda6ee$d3209e90$7961dbb0$@att.net> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK Sent: Wednesday, October 10, 2012 5:03 AM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement On Wed, Oct 10, 2012 at 4:49 AM, spike wrote: >>... I would be serious about it if I were a better programmer, and I am > willing to work towards being a better programmer to get this done... >...I suspect Excel is the wrong tool for this job. (Although if you only have a hammer, everything looks like a nail). :) Ja, I suggested that one only because the ExI archives can be dropped into Word, manipulated and cleaned up using Word macros, then dropped into Excel from there. I realize these tools have their disadvantages, but I know the hell outta Microsloth excel languages. I have some scripting skills, but these are an order of magnitude below my Excel macro skills. I also want to somehow have access to all those terrific Excel mathematical functions. You can do calculations and insert the answers into your text, which is wicked cool. >...It is more complex than you estimate (but most projects are)... Hmmm, ja, but I have a good handle on what it would take to make a simple-minded reply-bot. It wouldn't fool anyone who has been here a while, but a new guy might wonder what's up with this poster. I would give it a new name we haven't seen before, call him Omar. But before I do, have we any actual Omars here? If so, I will pick a different name. Omar was a high school friend, an exchange student, a total hoot was he. >...e.g. synonyms. If somebody talks about a car, you have to know all the other words that might be applicable. Parsing English get complicated very quickly. Ja, I am not claiming the thing will be profound, only that it can be done. >...There are plenty of websites around which you can chat to and ask questions. Mostly within a specialised subject domain, like computer help sites... e.g. chat to Frank about drugs. BillK Is there some kind of generic code we can use, a template or something? Seems like these kinds of sites should have some kind of common software DNA. There is no point reinventing the wheel, when previous inventors have a better wheel than I can create. spike From sparge at gmail.com Wed Oct 10 14:21:56 2012 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2012 10:21:56 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Off topic: Cryonics and Beauty? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 9, 2012 at 7:12 PM, Mike Dougherty wrote: > > I've been subscribed for years and I'm still not sure what > Extropianism means. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extropy No doubt some here will say it's wrong in various ways, but it seems pretty accurate to me. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Wed Oct 10 14:56:05 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2012 15:56:05 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Off topic: Cryonics and Beauty? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 10, 2012 at 3:21 PM, Dave Sill wrote: > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extropy > > No doubt some here will say it's wrong in various ways, but it seems pretty > accurate to me. > > The bottom of the page has a section on Extropism (which I've never heard of before). They seem to have produced a Manifesto in Jan 2010 then disappeared (according to Google). The section should probably be deleted or moved to its own page if it doesn't actually exist any more. BillK From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Wed Oct 10 15:35:48 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2012 08:35:48 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 10, 2012 at 5:00 AM, "spike" wrote: > From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org > [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty > ... >>>... If one often gets the feeling one should spend less time downloading >> one's brain into ExI-chat, a cheerful thought is that it might not be >> such a terrible waste. You might be creating your future posthumous >> self with each paragraph you write. spike > >>...Not just Exl-chat; the Internet in general... > > Ja. ExI-chat gets most of my best ideas and real thoughts, along with some > of my best cut-ups. > >>...btw, are you serious about building an archive-powered impersonator bot? > _______________________________________________ > > I would be serious about it if I were a better programmer, and I am willing > to work towards being a better programmer to get this done. I hope not. This might be a case where a joke got out of hand. Bots cluttering discussions with old quotes we do not need. If the bots were able to form new ideas though, that would be AI. On the other hand, it is related to a discussion between Hans Moravec and me in the pre-archive days. I eventually located it on a floppy disk. Hans was arguing that he didn't need to be frozen since he could be resurrected from his works. That led to me saying it would be a huge waste of computer resources and would involve discarding large numbers of versions of Hans that didn't get _Mind Children_ exactly right and hoping the discard process would not be painful. Charlie, who started this thread, was on the list in those days and mined it extensively for the ideas that went into his absolutely great novel _Accelerando_. I was totally boggled to be reading along and find the idea in the exchanges between Hans and me had been worked into the plot. The "vile offspring" implemented in computronium down around the sun were doing this and sending the results out to the ruminant of humanity on Saturn. Highly appreciated to see such ideas turned into particularly fine science fiction. (Shame on you if you are on this list and have not read _Accelerando_.) BTW Charlie, I think Economics 2.0 is already upon us. ^^^^^^^^^^^^ This might sound like total nonsense, except we can already see the beginnings of serious economic concerns with the speed of light. The avatars that run programmed trading must be close physically to the computers that run the stock exchanges. ?In the U.S., high-frequency firms represent only 2 percent of the 20,000 or so trading firms operating today. But they now account for nearly three-quarters of all trades. ?And the average time a stock investment is held these days is 22 seconds. If time is money, microseconds are now millions. In a recent so-called TED talk on cutting-edge technology, tech whiz Kevin Slavin wowed the audience by describing buildings now being hollowed out in Lower Manhattan. Why? So that high-frequency trading firms can move in and get as close as possible to New York?s point of entry for the Internet at a so-called carrier hotel in Tribeca. ?. . . . this is really where the wires come right up into the city. And the further away you are from that, you?re a few microseconds behind every time. These guys down on Wall Street, they?re eight microseconds behind all these guys going into the empty buildings being hollowed out up around the carrier hotel. ?Just to give you a sense of what microseconds are, it takes you 500,000 microseconds just to click a mouse. But if you?re a Wall Street algorithm and you?re five microseconds behind, you?re a loser.? ? from Kevin Slavin on algorithms ^^^^^^^^^^^ I am reminded of Arthur C. Clarke who wrote about AI in "Against the Fall of Night." The story has AI taking billion of years to develop. It's looks like it will only take decades beyond Clarke own life for that to happen. Sorry to lump you in with AC Clarke Charlie. :-) Keith From charlie.stross at gmail.com Wed Oct 10 17:15:55 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2012 18:15:55 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <78E3C288-4785-42A0-94CF-56490026A3A5@gmail.com> On 10 Oct 2012, at 16:35, Keith Henson wrote: > > On the other hand, it is related to a discussion between Hans Moravec > and me in the pre-archive days. I eventually located it on a floppy > disk. Hans was arguing that he didn't need to be frozen since he > could be resurrected from his works. That led to me saying it would > be a huge waste of computer resources and would involve discarding > large numbers of versions of Hans that didn't get _Mind Children_ > exactly right and hoping the discard process would not be painful. Obligatory fictional treatment of that idea: "Newton's Wake" by Ken MacLeod. > BTW Charlie, I think Economics 2.0 is already upon us. > > ^^^^^^^^^^^^ > > This might sound like total nonsense, except we can already see the > beginnings of serious economic concerns with the speed of light. The > avatars that run programmed trading must be close physically to the > computers that run the stock exchanges. Yeah, I've been a bit worried about that, too. And the effect of HFT and algorithmic trading on our markets. The animated graph here is positively terrifying: http://www.nanex.net/aqck/2804.HTML -- Charlie From charlie.stross at gmail.com Wed Oct 10 17:30:57 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2012 18:30:57 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Consequentialist world improvement In-Reply-To: <78E3C288-4785-42A0-94CF-56490026A3A5@gmail.com> References: <78E3C288-4785-42A0-94CF-56490026A3A5@gmail.com> Message-ID: Whoops: http://www.cnbc.com/id/49333454 > A single mysterious computer program that placed orders ? and then subsequently canceled them ? made up 4 percent of all quote traffic in the U.S. stock market last week, according to the top tracker of high-frequency trading activity. The motive of the algorithm is still unclear. > > The program placed orders in 25-millisecond bursts involving about 500 stocks, according to Nanex, a market data firm. The algorithm never executed a single trade, and it abruptly ended at about 10:30 a.m. ET Friday. Not sure whether to be more frightened by this one: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/black_gold_blackout_GrZbUuLUyWB7o0cPO4KNPJ > Steve Perkins, a veteran senior broker at PVM Oil Futures in London, managed to spend $520 million on oil futures contracts throughout the night, which caused crude to jump more than $1.50 a barrel overnight and sent analysts into a tear to find the reason why. > > The next morning, an office clerk called Perkins at home to confirm the trade of 7 million barrels in the wee hours. Perkins said he had no memory of the trade. Soon after, he sent his boss an e-mail saying he had to attend to a family illness that day and would not be in the office. > > Only later in the morning did Perkins admit to having been in a ?drunken blackout? while he tried to corner the crude market. By that time, the firm had lost almost $9.8 million after unwinding the alcohol-induced trades. > > The UK?s Financial Services Authority fined Perkins almost $110,000 and banned him from trading for five years in London, saying, ?Mr. Perkins poses an extreme risk to the market when drunk.? -- Charlie From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Oct 10 17:17:01 2012 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2012 13:17:01 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Dementia Plague In-Reply-To: <50749838.4040501@aleph.se> References: <507470DF.4020404@aleph.se> <50749838.4040501@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 9, 2012 at 5:33 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > > It is known that some saturated fatty acids reduce cognitive performance > somewhat, likely through effects on brain metabolism. And the brain is a > massive energy user in the body. So a link between disturbances in energy > allocation and bad things happening in the brain is not too far fetched. > These studies reinforce it. But I don't think they provide much evidence for > us to change diet because we fear AD: rather, we should eat healthy because > we should fear *all* the known killers. Adding an extra is almost redundant, > unless we figure out some metabolic tweak that forces us to make tradeoffs. > ### You are correct. The underlying metabolic derangement responsible for insulin resistance, whether in the brain or, in the case of type II diabetes, in skeletal muscle, is mitochondrial suppression which directly leads to impaired glucose utilization and low metabolic energy supply. I think there is convincing evidence that brain mitochondrial dysfunction is responsible for AD, and the amyloid story is just a distraction. I have no doubts that any effective treatment of AD will have to address, directly or indirectly, the mitochondrial issue. However, it is not entirely clear what specific dietary modifications could have a major effect on AD incidence. There are studies indicating that a lifelong history of caloric overfeeding correlates with later development of AD, just as it correlates with diabetes and the metabolic syndrome. It probably makes sense to stay lean, avoid high-caloric density food, eat your veggies - but then, this is what you already hear when talking about prevention of heart disease, diabetes and cancer. On the other hand, there is an FDA approved dietary supplement for treatment (not prevention) of AD, Axona (http://www.about-axona.com/) which acts by partially circumventing the mitochondrial suppression using ketone bodies. Thus the mitochondrial/metabolic theory of AD generates some nutritional advice, although of a limited kind. More importantly, it implies that the billions of dollars spent on amyloid approaches have been completely wasted. Rafal From anders at aleph.se Wed Oct 10 22:18:47 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2012 23:18:47 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Economics 2.0 In-Reply-To: References: <78E3C288-4785-42A0-94CF-56490026A3A5@gmail.com> Message-ID: <5075F447.7090904@aleph.se> Yes, I found the 4% quote program downright disturbing. Especially since I saw the story while listening to a colleauge who runs a research project looking at using software proof techniques to understand the behavior of economic software agents... and he was explicitly claiming (and defending!) that they were rational and would produce equilibria behaviors! OK, his rationality argument was not 100% stupid: irrational agents will lose money and will be turned off. But as we have seen in finance, systems can make money most of the time and then occasionally fail with super-losses that outweigh the previous profit. So it hinges on the long-term rationality of owners, which is empirically suspect thanks to past history and drunk traders. Plus that we have no reason to think the system is stable since new agents and agent-agent behaviors occur. Shades of the delightful amazon.com agents that tried to sell a used book for a few million dollars. Or try to win the Turing test: http://carlos.bueno.org/2012/02/bots-seized-control.html This is actually an area where even I, a crazy libertarian, think it would be smart to add friction to the system to get the quoting down. But the amazon bots are even closer to the Economics 2.0 in the novel. As Carlos Bueno put it: "So with ?Turing Test? we have a delightful futuristic absurdity: a computer program, pretending to be human, hawking a book about computers pretending to be human, while other computer programs pretend to have used copies of it. A book that was never actually written, much less printed and read." In many ways that is more sinister. A stock market crash is just economic's way of telling you to be more cautious and invest in something else. These things on the other hand are spamming our markets and intellectual worlds with pseudo-information of little or no value. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From max at maxmore.com Thu Oct 11 06:44:43 2012 From: max at maxmore.com (Max More) Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2012 23:44:43 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Off topic: Cryonics and Beauty? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Ah, I just saw this. Yes, Bill, I agree. The section on "extropism" seems to me entirely out of balance to the rest. It should have its own page, if enough people think it merits one. The extropy page really should have links to the various versions of the Extropian Principles/Principles of Extropy. I would do that if I had the time and energy for it. I've put in on my "Maybe One Day" task list. Mike D: If you're still not sure what extropianism or transhumanism are, you will really have to buy a copy of *The Transhumanist Reader*. It's intended as a definitive collection (of over 50 essays) on the topic, edited by Natasha and myself. Due out in 2013 from Wiley-Blackwell. --Max On Wed, Oct 10, 2012 at 7:56 AM, BillK wrote: > On Wed, Oct 10, 2012 at 3:21 PM, Dave Sill wrote: > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extropy > > > > No doubt some here will say it's wrong in various ways, but it seems > pretty > > accurate to me. > > > > > > The bottom of the page has a section on Extropism (which I've never > heard of before). > They seem to have produced a Manifesto in Jan 2010 then disappeared > (according to Google). > > The section should probably be deleted or moved to its own page if it > doesn't actually exist any more. > > > BillK > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -- Max More, PhD Strategic Philosopher Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader* President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation 7895 E. Acoma Dr # 110 Scottsdale, AZ 85260 480/905-1906 ext 113 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Thu Oct 11 13:30:04 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 11 Oct 2012 06:30:04 -0700 Subject: [ExI] ben franklin was an early extropian Message-ID: <004301cda7b4$86c2aef0$94480cd0$@att.net> I saw this on a cryonics list and decided to post it here. I know Kennita (delightful young lady) and I am confident she would be OK with my quoting her quoting Franklin. Truly, Ben Franklin was born waaaay too soon, but we needed him back there too. Benjamin Franklin writing to the Unitarian scientist Joseph Priestley in 1780: "The rapid progress true science now makes occasions my regretting sometimes that I was born too soon. It is impossible to imagine the height to which may be carried, in a thousand years, the power of man over matter. We may, perhaps, deprive large masses of their gravity, and give them absolute levity, for the sake of easy transport. Agriculture may diminish its labor and double its produce: all diseases may by sure means be prevented or cured (not excepting even that of old age,) and our lives lengthened at pleasure, even beyond the antediluvian standard. Oh that moral science were in as fair a way of improvement, that men would cease to be wolves to one another, and that human beings would at length learn what they now improperly call humanity." -- Live long and prosper, Kennita -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Thu Oct 11 14:11:23 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Thu, 11 Oct 2012 10:11:23 -0400 Subject: [ExI] ben franklin was an early extropian In-Reply-To: <004301cda7b4$86c2aef0$94480cd0$@att.net> References: <004301cda7b4$86c2aef0$94480cd0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 11, 2012 at 9:30 AM, spike wrote: > ** ** > > I saw this on a cryonics list and decided to post it here. I know Kennita > (delightful young lady) and I am confident she would be OK with my quoting > her quoting Franklin. Truly, Ben Franklin was born waaaay too soon, but we > needed him back there too.**** > > ** ** > > Benjamin Franklin writing to the Unitarian scientist Joseph Priestley in > 1780:**** > > *?The rapid progress true science now makes occasions my regretting > sometimes that I was born too soon. It is impossible to imagine the height > to which may be carried, in a thousand years, the power of man over matter. > We may, perhaps, deprive large masses of their gravity, and give them > absolute levity, for the sake of easy transport. Agriculture may diminish > its labor and double its produce: all diseases may by sure means be > prevented or cured (not excepting even that of old age,) and our lives > lengthened at pleasure, even beyond the antediluvian standard. Oh that > moral science were in as fair a way of improvement, that men would cease to > be wolves to one another, and that human beings would at length learn what > they now improperly call humanity.?* > That's not the only tome he expressed a wish to see the future. Benjamin Franklin in a letter to Jacques Dubourg, April 1773: "I wish it were possible... to invent a method of embalming drowned persons, in such a manner that they might be recalled to life at any period, however distant; for having a very ardent desire to see and observe the state of America a hundred years hence, I should prefer to an ordinary death, being immersed with a few friends in a cask of Madeira, until that time, then to be recalled to life by the solar warmth of my dear country! But... in all probability, we live in a century too little advanced, and too near the infancy of science, to see such an art brought in our time to its perfection. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Thu Oct 11 18:53:31 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Thu, 11 Oct 2012 14:53:31 -0400 Subject: [ExI] 55 Cancri e: a diamond planet Message-ID: http://www.foxnews.com/science/2012/10/11/super-earth-planet-likely-made-diamond/ I know "fox news" and "science" is an oxymoron right from the start, though this isn't much better: http://www.space.com/11544-densest-alien-planet-55cancrie.html While reading about 55 Cancri e I kept wondering if this might be a chunk of computronium practically in our own backyard. Thoughts? From anders at aleph.se Thu Oct 11 19:42:44 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Thu, 11 Oct 2012 20:42:44 +0100 Subject: [ExI] 55 Cancri e: a diamond planet In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <50772134.50503@aleph.se> On 11/10/2012 19:53, Mike Dougherty wrote: > While reading about 55 Cancri e I kept wondering if this might be a > chunk of computronium practically in our own backyard. > http://arxiv.org/abs/1104.5230 http://arxiv.org/abs/1005.4050 Sounds very much like a standard super-earth that has just had its atmosphere and hydrospher boiled off. I like their term "super-Io" for the type. A planet-sized computronium system will want some serious cooling, and that suggests the existence of radiators. That would affect the transit curve in particular ways, as Arnold showed: http://www.obs-hp.fr/~larnold/publi_to_download/Arnold_2005_ApJ_v627n1_534-539.pdf -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From spike66 at att.net Fri Oct 12 02:35:27 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 11 Oct 2012 19:35:27 -0700 Subject: [ExI] 55 Cancri e: a diamond planet In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <007901cda822$3e3ad590$bab080b0$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty Subject: [ExI] 55 Cancri e: a diamond planet http://www.foxnews.com/science/2012/10/11/super-earth-planet-likely-made-dia mond/ >...I know "fox news" and "science" is an oxymoron right from the start... Actually it isn't. FoxNews has an odd slant on political news, granted they love to report the titillating stuff, but they do a great job with science and technology. Compare Fox to the other news majors. Many here are sufficiently science and technology literate to be qualified judges. Compare Fox with any of the alphabet news sources, specifically on science and technology. Use Fox for that and nothing else. Judge them all on which news stories they cover and how accurately they explain the concepts. spike From reinhard.heil at googlemail.com Fri Oct 12 05:39:51 2012 From: reinhard.heil at googlemail.com (Reinhard H.) Date: Fri, 12 Oct 2012 07:39:51 +0200 Subject: [ExI] ben franklin was an early extropian In-Reply-To: <004301cda7b4$86c2aef0$94480cd0$@att.net> References: <004301cda7b4$86c2aef0$94480cd0$@att.net> Message-ID: "Would it be absurd then to suppose that this perfection of the human species might be capable of indefinite progress; that the day will come when death will be due only to extraordinary accidents or to the decay of the vital forces, and that ultimately, the average span between birth and decay will have no assignable value? Certainly man will not become immortal, but will not the interval between the first breath that he draws and the time when in the natural course of events, without disease or accident, he expires, increase indefinitely? (Condorcet nach Gruman: 87) "I wish it were possible, from this instance, to invent a method of embalming drowned persons, in such a manner that they may be recalled to life at any period, however distant; for having a very ardent desire to see and observe the state of America a hundred years hence, I should prefer to any ordinary death, the being immersed in a cask of Madeira wine, with a few friends, till that time, to be then recalled to life by the solar warmth of my dear country. But since in all probability we live in an age too early and too near the infancy of science, to hope to see an art brought in our time to its perfection, I must for the present content myself with the treat, which you are so kind as to promise me, of the resurrection of a fowl or a turkey cock." (Franklin nach Gruman: 84) John Hunter (1728 ? 1793) f?hrte ? erfolglose ? Einfrier- und Auftauversuche mit Karpfen durch. Hunter schreibt: "Till this time [Fehlschlag seiner Einfrierversuche, RH] I had imaginated that it might be possible to prolong life to any period by freezing a person in the frigid zone, as I thought all action and waste would cease until the body was thawed. I thought that if a man would give up the last ten years of his life to this kind of alternate oblivion and action, it might be prolonged to a thousand years: and by getting himself thawed every hundred years, he might learn what had happened during his frozen condition." (Hunter nach Gruman: 84) Gruman, Gerald J. 1966. A History of Ideas about the Prolognation of Life. The Evolution of Prolongevity Hypotheses to 1800. Transactions of the American Philosophical Society, New Series, Volume 56, Part 9. Philadelphia. On Thu, Oct 11, 2012 at 3:30 PM, spike wrote: > > > I saw this on a cryonics list and decided to post it here. I know Kennita > (delightful young lady) and I am confident she would be OK with my quoting > her quoting Franklin. Truly, Ben Franklin was born waaaay too soon, but we > needed him back there too. > > > > Benjamin Franklin writing to the Unitarian scientist Joseph Priestley in > 1780: > > ?The rapid progress true science now makes occasions my regretting sometimes > that I was born too soon. It is impossible to imagine the height to which > may be carried, in a thousand years, the power of man over matter. We may, > perhaps, deprive large masses of their gravity, and give them absolute > levity, for the sake of easy transport. Agriculture may diminish its labor > and double its produce: all diseases may by sure means be prevented or cured > (not excepting even that of old age,) and our lives lengthened at pleasure, > even beyond the antediluvian standard. Oh that moral science were in as fair > a way of improvement, that men would cease to be wolves to one another, and > that human beings would at length learn what they now improperly call > humanity.? > > -- > > Live long and prosper, > > Kennita > > > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Fri Oct 12 15:35:36 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Fri, 12 Oct 2012 08:35:36 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Computronium planet. Message-ID: On Fri, Oct 12, 2012 at 5:00 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > Subject: Re: [ExI] 55 Cancri e: a diamond planet snip > A planet-sized computronium system will want some serious cooling, and > that suggests the existence of radiators. That would affect the transit > curve in particular ways, as Arnold showed: > http://www.obs-hp.fr/~larnold/publi_to_download/Arnold_2005_ApJ_v627n1_534-539.pdf The radiators would depend on what they were doing. Used for fairly slow access, a planetary scale device might not need to much cooling. If you block the radiation from the sun with a huge sunshade in L1 and bring in power via microwaves, a planet can get rid of considerable waste heat. 510,072,000 km^2 at 1/4 GW/km^2 is 128,000 TW, around 10,000 times current consumption. The power plant in space would need to be larger than the sun blocker, perhaps twice as large. Combine as a huge disk in L1 and send the power to the ground. It would be an interesting place, dark, faint spill of light around the sun blocker, land areas covered with rectennas, fast uploaded civilization in the depths heating the the oceans to steaming, freezing cold rain falling everywhere, vast rivers running off bare rock continents. Inside the simulation conditions could be as nice as anyone wanted, but the underlying reality would be stark, worse than Mordor. Be hard to detect though, since the shading disk would probably be circular. Keith From giulio at gmail.com Fri Oct 12 16:52:16 2012 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Fri, 12 Oct 2012 18:52:16 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Computronium planet. In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Recently a friend observed that if our universe is the fastest machine able to compute itself (this assumption seems necessary to avoid causality violation paradoxes), then our matter is _already_ computronium, and we just cannot squeeze more computing power out of it. On Fri, Oct 12, 2012 at 5:35 PM, Keith Henson wrote: > On Fri, Oct 12, 2012 at 5:00 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > >> Subject: Re: [ExI] 55 Cancri e: a diamond planet > > snip > >> A planet-sized computronium system will want some serious cooling, and >> that suggests the existence of radiators. That would affect the transit >> curve in particular ways, as Arnold showed: >> http://www.obs-hp.fr/~larnold/publi_to_download/Arnold_2005_ApJ_v627n1_534-539.pdf > > The radiators would depend on what they were doing. Used for fairly > slow access, a planetary scale device might not need to much cooling. > > If you block the radiation from the sun with a huge sunshade in L1 and > bring in power via microwaves, a planet can get rid of considerable > waste heat. 510,072,000 km^2 at 1/4 GW/km^2 is 128,000 TW, around > 10,000 times current consumption. The power plant in space would need > to be larger than the sun blocker, perhaps twice as large. Combine as > a huge disk in L1 and send the power to the ground. > > It would be an interesting place, dark, faint spill of light around > the sun blocker, land areas covered with rectennas, fast uploaded > civilization in the depths heating the the oceans to steaming, > freezing cold rain falling everywhere, vast rivers running off bare > rock continents. > > Inside the simulation conditions could be as nice as anyone wanted, > but the underlying reality would be stark, worse than Mordor. > > Be hard to detect though, since the shading disk would probably be circular. > > Keith > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From msd001 at gmail.com Fri Oct 12 21:44:09 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Fri, 12 Oct 2012 17:44:09 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Computronium planet. In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Fri, Oct 12, 2012 at 12:52 PM, Giulio Prisco wrote: > Recently a friend observed that if our universe is the fastest machine > able to compute itself (this assumption seems necessary to avoid > causality violation paradoxes), then our matter is _already_ > computronium, and we just cannot squeeze more computing power out of > it. That's no fun. Can't we buy a better universe? From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Fri Oct 12 22:31:52 2012 From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian) Date: Fri, 12 Oct 2012 15:31:52 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] Simulation argument again (was Re: Computronium planet.) In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <1350081112.40451.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> ? ----- Original Message ----- > From: Giulio Prisco > To: ExI chat list > Cc: > Sent: Friday, October 12, 2012 9:52 AM > Subject: Re: [ExI] Computronium planet. > > Recently a friend observed that if our universe is the fastest machine > able to compute itself (this assumption seems necessary to avoid > causality violation paradoxes), then our matter is _already_ > computronium, and we just cannot squeeze more computing power out of > it. Here is a cool paper that borders on experimental?metaphysics or an empirical test to see if there is a Creator. Physicist?Silas Beane, at the University of Bonn in Germany,?shows how simulated beings?could use?observable properties?of?fundamental particles to figure out if they are being simulated. He proposes?tests based on the assumption that a simulation would have to run on a?[hyper]cubic?lattice and that the lattice?should be detectable by scientific?methods.??He goes on to calculate limits on?the spacing?or resolution of the hypothesized lattice using the fine structure constant and anomolous magnetic moment of electrons and muons. He further suggests that if the lattice is comparable in scale to the Greisen?Zatsepin?Kuzmin or GZK limit in the energy spectrum of cosmic ray particles,?then a?directional anisotropy or?rotational symmetry breaking?in the distribution of cosmic rays?should be detectable. In other words, if?cosmic rays near the GZK energy limit seem to come preferentially from the orthogonal axes of the lattice instead of displaying spherical symmetry, it?would provide evidence that we are indeed living in a simulation: Popular science translation: http://www.technologyreview.com/view/429561/the-measurement-that-would-reveal-the-universe-as/ Original article: http://arxiv.org/abs/1210.1847 Stuart LaForge "Prisons are built with stones of Law. Brothels with the bricks of religion." - William Blake From nanite1018 at gmail.com Fri Oct 12 23:13:18 2012 From: nanite1018 at gmail.com (Joshua Job) Date: Fri, 12 Oct 2012 16:13:18 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Simulation argument again (was Re: Computronium planet.) In-Reply-To: <1350081112.40451.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> References: <1350081112.40451.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: The problem with the simulation argued,went is that we know noting of the physical laws in the primary universe. For example, it ,at be a universe that is fundamentally classical, without a quantum limit on precision. Perhaps a little tweaking with other physical variables would allow life to develop, and this life could, using reversible computing, conceivably do some form of hyper computation, as they would be able to improve the quality of their instruments to an arbitrary degree. In so doing, they could conceivably perform an arbitrarily large number of computations per unit volume, without any fundamental restrictions. Moreover, why couldn't they simply design our laws of physics so as to render the mesh undetectable? For example, by putting it at the Planck scale, and having it so that such energies are unachievable? (Or it could be smaller of course, no reason it couldn't be 10^-100 meters or something). I know of no physical reason why there would be limits, provided one stipulates that one exists in a computation. Unless one believes that there can only be one self-consistent structure of physical laws which gives rise to entities capable of conceptualization and performing useful computations from the world around them, one can't place any limits on beings operating a different, perhaps extremely different, set of physical laws. -Joshua Job. On Oct 12, 2012 3:46 PM, "The Avantguardian" wrote: > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Giulio Prisco > > To: ExI chat list > > Cc: > > Sent: Friday, October 12, 2012 9:52 AM > > Subject: Re: [ExI] Computronium planet. > > > > Recently a friend observed that if our universe is the fastest machine > > able to compute itself (this assumption seems necessary to avoid > > causality violation paradoxes), then our matter is _already_ > > computronium, and we just cannot squeeze more computing power out of > > it. > > Here is a cool paper that borders on experimental metaphysics or an > empirical test to see if there is a Creator. Physicist Silas Beane, at the > University of Bonn in Germany, shows how simulated beings could > use observable properties of fundamental particles to figure out if they > are being simulated. He proposes tests based on the assumption that a > simulation would have to run on a [hyper]cubic lattice and that the > lattice should be detectable by scientific methods. He goes on to > calculate limits on the spacing or resolution of the hypothesized lattice > using the fine structure constant and anomolous magnetic moment of > electrons and muons. > > He further suggests that if the lattice is comparable in scale to the > Greisen?Zatsepin?Kuzmin or GZK limit in the energy spectrum of cosmic ray > particles, then a directional anisotropy or rotational symmetry breaking in > the distribution of cosmic rays should be detectable. In other words, > if cosmic rays near the GZK energy limit seem to come preferentially from > the orthogonal axes of the lattice instead of displaying spherical > symmetry, it would provide evidence that we are indeed living in a > simulation: > > Popular science translation: > > > http://www.technologyreview.com/view/429561/the-measurement-that-would-reveal-the-universe-as/ > > Original article: > > http://arxiv.org/abs/1210.1847 > > > > Stuart LaForge > > > "Prisons are built with stones of Law. Brothels with the bricks of > religion." - William Blake > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Sat Oct 13 06:37:49 2012 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Sat, 13 Oct 2012 08:37:49 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Simulation argument again (was Re: Computronium planet.) In-Reply-To: <1350081112.40451.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> References: <1350081112.40451.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: Space-time could be a lattice of discrete points (a discrete space-time has been proposed by many physicists since the 20s), but it would not imply that our universe is a simulation. It could be just the way fundamental reality is wired. On Sat, Oct 13, 2012 at 12:31 AM, The Avantguardian wrote: > > ----- Original Message ----- >> From: Giulio Prisco >> To: ExI chat list >> Cc: >> Sent: Friday, October 12, 2012 9:52 AM >> Subject: Re: [ExI] Computronium planet. >> >> Recently a friend observed that if our universe is the fastest machine >> able to compute itself (this assumption seems necessary to avoid >> causality violation paradoxes), then our matter is _already_ >> computronium, and we just cannot squeeze more computing power out of >> it. > > Here is a cool paper that borders on experimental metaphysics or an empirical test to see if there is a Creator. Physicist Silas Beane, at the University of Bonn in Germany, shows how simulated beings could use observable properties of fundamental particles to figure out if they are being simulated. He proposes tests based on the assumption that a simulation would have to run on a [hyper]cubic lattice and that the lattice should be detectable by scientific methods. He goes on to calculate limits on the spacing or resolution of the hypothesized lattice using the fine structure constant and anomolous magnetic moment of electrons and muons. > > He further suggests that if the lattice is comparable in scale to the Greisen?Zatsepin?Kuzmin or GZK limit in the energy spectrum of cosmic ray particles, then a directional anisotropy or rotational symmetry breaking in the distribution of cosmic rays should be detectable. In other words, if cosmic rays near the GZK energy limit seem to come preferentially from the orthogonal axes of the lattice instead of displaying spherical symmetry, it would provide evidence that we are indeed living in a simulation: > > Popular science translation: > > http://www.technologyreview.com/view/429561/the-measurement-that-would-reveal-the-universe-as/ > > Original article: > > http://arxiv.org/abs/1210.1847 > > > > Stuart LaForge > > > "Prisons are built with stones of Law. Brothels with the bricks of religion." - William Blake > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From anders at aleph.se Sat Oct 13 15:01:24 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sat, 13 Oct 2012 16:01:24 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Simulation argument again (was Re: Computronium planet.) In-Reply-To: References: <1350081112.40451.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <50798244.3030505@aleph.se> On 13/10/2012 00:13, Joshua Job wrote: > > The problem with the simulation argued,went is that we know noting of > the physical laws in the primary universe. For example, it ,at be a > universe that is fundamentally classical, without a quantum limit on > precision. > And hence able to do hyperturing computation, or handle infinite precision. But even if you could do that, it might not be relevant for your simulation: we do a lot of approximate calculations even when we could do them exactly, and run discrete systems even when we could run continous or at least fine-grained ones (think of cellular automata - a lot of computer power has been spent on a particular simple 2D universe). And we do loads of sub-Turing computational systems even though we can make them fully Turing-equivalent. So the simulation will be limited by *both* the limits of the Real universe and arbitrary choices of what its inhabitants will want to run. The only property we can be sure about is that it will be equal to or less powerful than the Real. The original simulation argument by Bostrom doesn't make any assumptions whatsoever about the properties of the Real universe. [ Incidentally, a continous version of Game of Life has finally been invented: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJe9H6qS82I http://sourceforge.net/projects/smoothlife/ http://arxiv.org/abs/1111.1567 I can't wait to hack together an implementation.] -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From anders at aleph.se Sat Oct 13 15:07:34 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sat, 13 Oct 2012 16:07:34 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Simulation argument again (was Re: Computronium planet.) In-Reply-To: <1350081112.40451.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> References: <1350081112.40451.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <507983B6.4070600@aleph.se> My problem with the QCD paper is that it assumes the Simulators use a particular cubical grid (they admit this is a weakness, the paper is not stupid by any means). The QCD guys look at systems were you calculate every point in the volume, rather than the very anisotropic distribution of stuff we have on larger scales. A galaxy simulation has most galaxies and matter in clumps in a small subset of the full space, and molecular simulations obviously has discrete molecule conglomerates. One interesting thing I would love to see is what an octree or multipole code would produce in terms of anisotropies as seen from the "inside". Any numerical analysis hotshot who knows? This of course relates to Moravec's caution way back in "Mind Children" that the universe could be running like HashLife: the mapping from our spacetime to the Real system implementing it could be very nontrivial. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From anders at aleph.se Sat Oct 13 14:50:37 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sat, 13 Oct 2012 15:50:37 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Computronium planet. In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <50797FBD.40905@aleph.se> On 12/10/2012 17:52, Giulio Prisco wrote: > Recently a friend observed that if our universe is the fastest machine > able to compute itself (this assumption seems necessary to avoid > causality violation paradoxes), then our matter is _already_ > computronium, and we just cannot squeeze more computing power out of > it. It is not obvious that this is true. Sure, you could argue that if a subset A of the universe can calculate itself faster than A, then you get a paradox. But it could be that due to limits on measurement precision (due to no cloning theorems and similar stuff) subset A can not reliably be programmed to calculate subset A, just some random version A' - and it is likely that computronium has a particularly chaotic dynamics, so the evolution of A' is not going to be like the evolution of A. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From spike66 at att.net Sat Oct 13 15:35:35 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (Gregory Jones) Date: Sat, 13 Oct 2012 08:35:35 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] Simulation argument again (was Re: Computronium planet.) In-Reply-To: References: <1350081112.40451.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <1350142535.23671.YahooMailRC@web184305.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> ----- Original Message ---- From: Giulio Prisco Subject: Re: [ExI] Simulation argument again (was Re: Computronium planet.) >...Space-time could be a lattice of discrete points (a discrete space-time has been proposed by many physicists since the 20s), but it would not imply that our universe is a simulation. It could be just the way fundamental reality is wired...? Giulio Fundamental reality is wired now?? How did it get wired?? spike From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Sat Oct 13 16:11:56 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Sat, 13 Oct 2012 18:11:56 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Simulation argument again (was Re: Computronium planet.) In-Reply-To: <1350142535.23671.YahooMailRC@web184305.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> References: <1350081112.40451.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> <1350142535.23671.YahooMailRC@web184305.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: On 13 October 2012 17:35, Gregory Jones wrote: > Fundamental reality is wired now? How did it get wired? > The idealist answer, which I still find pretty persuasive, it that it is wired by the glance that makes it ex-sistent. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Sat Oct 13 16:08:03 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Sat, 13 Oct 2012 18:08:03 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Computronium planet. In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 12 October 2012 18:52, Giulio Prisco wrote: > Recently a friend observed that if our universe is the fastest machine > able to compute itself (this assumption seems necessary to avoid > causality violation paradoxes), then our matter is _already_ > computronium, and we just cannot squeeze more computing power out of > it. Wolfram or Lloyd Seth seem to think along the same line. The fact is that the universe does not devote much of its computations to our own ends... :-) -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Sun Oct 14 05:47:44 2012 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Sun, 14 Oct 2012 07:47:44 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Computronium planet. In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Like Anders, I don't really agree with the observation that I reported. For all practical purposes (FAPP), what really matters is not perfect computation, but good-enough, fit-for-purpose computation, and we know that a small part of the universe (like a supercomputer) can compute the future of another part of the universe (like tomorrow's weather, or a baby AI) with a reasonably good approximation FAPP. Computronium is the ultimate supercomputing substrate. But I find the observation (and the overall attitude behind it) interesting. Our own thinking ability requires a space-time and all the laws of physics to run it, so the universe is already partly optimized for processing conscious thoughts (not necessarily fully optimized though). In a all-is-connected way, perhaps the tiniest particles in a far galaxy influence our thoughts here and now, in a sort of cognitive Mach principle. On Sat, Oct 13, 2012 at 6:08 PM, Stefano Vaj wrote: > On 12 October 2012 18:52, Giulio Prisco wrote: >> >> Recently a friend observed that if our universe is the fastest machine >> able to compute itself (this assumption seems necessary to avoid >> causality violation paradoxes), then our matter is _already_ >> computronium, and we just cannot squeeze more computing power out of >> it. > > > Wolfram or Lloyd Seth seem to think along the same line. The fact is that > the universe does not devote much of its computations to our own ends... :-) > > -- > Stefano Vaj > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From msd001 at gmail.com Sun Oct 14 15:04:19 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Sun, 14 Oct 2012 11:04:19 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Computronium planet. In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sun, Oct 14, 2012 at 1:47 AM, Giulio Prisco wrote: > optimized though). In a all-is-connected way, perhaps the tiniest > particles in a far galaxy influence our thoughts here and now, in a > sort of cognitive Mach principle. I thought this was the gist of the holographic universe: information written on the 2d surface of a region of space-time (or all of space-time) maps to the observed 3d/4d/etc space. I think it's easier to imagine a higher-dimension structure of information describing a lower-dimensional structure for space-time - as much as imagining high-dimension structures is easy. However, for the sake of expressing the holographic principle people are more likely to relate with a "huge spreadsheet" object describing the universe than a much more complex object that can't be found in nature. I hadn't read about Mach's principle before; thanks for that. From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Oct 14 15:35:37 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 14 Oct 2012 11:35:37 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Computronium planet. In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: > On Fri, Oct 12, 2012 at 12:52 PM, Giulio Prisco wrote: > Recently a friend observed that if our universe is the fastest machine > able to compute itself (this assumption seems necessary to avoid causality > violation paradoxes), then our matter is _already_ computronium, and we > just cannot squeeze more computing power out of it. > You're trying to compare time in a simulated world with time in the world doing the simulating, and there is just no way for beings in the simulated world to do that; that is to say there is no way to measure the ratio of speed at which things change in our world to the speed things change in the universe simulating us, there is just no unique way to do that. It might matter to them but it wouldn't matter to us if it took them one Plank second (5.4*10^-44 seconds) of their time to simulate a billion years of ours, or a billion of their years to simulate one Plank second of ours. Also they could use shortcuts, they wouldn't need to constantly simulate everything just the stuff the conscious simulated beings were looking at. Hmm, that sounds familiar somehow. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Tue Oct 16 14:49:28 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2012 16:49:28 +0200 Subject: [ExI] "L'onorevole transumanista", again on the 1st H+ MP in Europe in an Italian paper Message-ID: http://www.ilfoglio.it/soloqui/15350 The paper is virulently anti-transhumanist, but this national, mainstream coverage is indeed good for the AIT and its member concerned... -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Oct 16 18:27:07 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2012 11:27:07 -0700 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery Message-ID: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> Oy vey, clearly we have a clash of culture here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/9607763/Muslims-protest-age-of-mockery-as-th ousands-descend-on-Google-HQ.html -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Oct 16 19:57:22 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2012 20:57:22 +0100 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 16, 2012 at 7:27 PM, spike wrote: > Oy vey, clearly we have a clash of culture here: > http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/9607763/Muslims-protest-age-of-mockery-as-thousands-descend-on-Google-HQ.html > You know, of course, that the UK doesn't have a First Amendment right. There are many things people are not allowed to say in public. Recently people have been jailed for Facebook or Twitter comments. See: Even the US First Amendment right has considerable exceptions. Just try inciting to terrorism in public, for example. BillK From timhalterman at gmail.com Tue Oct 16 21:46:59 2012 From: timhalterman at gmail.com (Tim Halterman) Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2012 16:46:59 -0500 Subject: [ExI] The Dementia Plague In-Reply-To: References: <507470DF.4020404@aleph.se> <50749838.4040501@aleph.se> Message-ID: http://jpet.aspetjournals.org/content/early/2012/10/10/jpet.112.199497.full.pdf+html I just came across this and remembered this recent discussion. As fraught with roadblocks as these things are it still was uplifting to read about a drug with such potential. From atymes at gmail.com Tue Oct 16 20:53:39 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2012 13:53:39 -0700 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> Message-ID: More like, thousands of Muslims getting a civics lesson as their anger backfires. On Tue, Oct 16, 2012 at 11:27 AM, spike wrote: > > > Oy vey, clearly we have a clash of culture here: > > > > http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/9607763/Muslims-protest-age-of-mockery-as-thousands-descend-on-Google-HQ.html > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From lubkin at unreasonable.com Tue Oct 16 23:17:19 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2012 19:17:19 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri Message-ID: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Discovery! Earth-Size Alien Planet at Alpha Centauri Is Closest Ever Seen This is one we could get to. Worst case, expand across the millennia. From the Kuiper Belt to our Oort Cloud to Alpha Centauri's, which is believed to exist and overlap with ours. So we don't need a starship, uploading, or MNT. Just patience. -- David. From spike66 at att.net Tue Oct 16 23:48:07 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2012 16:48:07 -0700 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> Message-ID: <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK >...You know, of course, that the UK doesn't have a First Amendment right... BillK, you lads should get one. Actually you need some second amendment rights before you have a chance at having some first amendment rights. >...There are many things people are not allowed to say in public. Recently people have been jailed for Facebook or Twitter comments. See: . .. Oy vey, we saw that. >...Even the US First Amendment right has considerable exceptions... Ja, but not blasphemy. That one is still welcome. >...Just try inciting to terrorism in public, for example. BillK _______________________________________________ Ja, this explains why these guys are trying to establish that blasphemy *IS* terrorism. Apparently these gentle lambs are terrified by cartoons and videos, TERRIFIED. But I want you to imagine a scenario where the US legislature attempted to impose a restriction on blasphemy. First thing you know, the Christians would start to think that their religion is an actual religion as well, and claim the right to have no defamation of their prophet. Then the Jews, then the Zoroastrians, and you know that I will get in line, claiming that I as an ultra-orthodox pagan deserve freedom from all defamation. Pretty soon, the atheist crowd will realize that they are often said to worship nothing. So they can rightfully claim that now no one can say anything bad about nothing. spike From anders at aleph.se Wed Oct 17 02:41:03 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2012 19:41:03 -0700 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> Message-ID: <507E1ABF.3010402@aleph.se> On 16/10/2012 16:48, spike wrote: > ...You know, of course, that the UK doesn't have a First Amendment right... > BillK, you lads should get one. Actually you need some second amendment > rights before you have a chance at having some first amendment rights. We need a constitution first. Maybe we should humbly beg Her Majesty for an update on Magna Carta... The proper thing to do in response to the age of mockery is of course to mock the mindset behind it mercilessly. Not the faith, that is beside the point, but the view that there are ideas that that should not be allowed to be expressed because somebody might be upset. We could start by criticising the Muslims for mocking the pre-islamic religions. Then we should point out that their criticism of mockery outrages many liberal-minded westerners and hence should stop. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From anders at aleph.se Wed Oct 17 03:03:43 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2012 20:03:43 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Computronium planet. In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <507E200F.8060309@aleph.se> On 12/10/2012 08:35, Keith Henson wrote: > The radiators would depend on what they were doing. Used for fairly > slow access, a planetary scale device might not need to much cooling. Yes, but even a tiny energy usage per cubic meter would get hot fast. A sphere with radius R producing P Watts per cubic meter will need to get rid of 4 pi R^3 P/3 Watts. It can radiate from the surface, 4 pi R^2 epsilon sigma T^4 Watts. That gives an equilibrium temperature of [R P/3 epsilon sigma]^(1/4). So if R=6e6 meters, P=1e-6 W/m^3 the temperature will be around 100 K. For a milliwatt it will be 570 K - good for cooking. A Jupiter-sized version would be just as hot with a microwatt performance. > It would be an interesting place, dark, faint spill of light around > the sun blocker, land areas covered with rectennas, fast uploaded > civilization in the depths heating the the oceans to steaming, > freezing cold rain falling everywhere, vast rivers running off bare > rock continents. Inside the simulation conditions could be as nice as > anyone wanted, but the underlying reality would be stark, worse than > Mordor. Be hard to detect though, since the shading disk would > probably be circular. Sysop Sauron was watching the cooling indicators of Mount Doom. "We are seeing a spike in server latency, what the heck are those heavens doing?" "They are apparently running a cross-civilization marathon game. Should be over soon when the NPCs have evolved sentience." -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From anders at aleph.se Wed Oct 17 02:35:08 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2012 19:35:08 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> On 16/10/2012 16:17, David Lubkin wrote: > > So we don't need a starship, uploading, or MNT. Just patience. A lot of it. But yes, this is *coool*. Nice to see terrestrials in a double/triple system. I am going to play Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri with renewed reverence tonight. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From pharos at gmail.com Wed Oct 17 09:30:36 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 10:30:36 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 17, 2012 at 10:02 AM, BillK wrote: > Using present rockets, about 50,000 to 100,000 years. > So we need new rocket systems first. > And another thing that has been worrying me a bit is the expansion of the Universe. (which is still accelerating). The new value for the Hubble constant, good to within three percent, is 74.3 kilometers per second per megaparsec (km/s/Mpc). What this means is that a galaxy one megaparsec away (that is, 3.26 million light years) will be moving away from us at 74.3 km/sec. If you double the distance to 2 megaparsecs, a galaxy would be moving away at twice that speed, or 148.6 km/sec. 74.3 kilometer/second = 166 204 mph 148.6 kilometer/second = 332 408 mph That's a very long way away, but it is a bit discouraging that the universe is expanding at a much faster speed than our best rockets can reach. BillK From pharos at gmail.com Wed Oct 17 09:02:17 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 10:02:17 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 17, 2012 at 3:35 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > On 16/10/2012 16:17, David Lubkin wrote: >> So we don't need a starship, uploading, or MNT. Just patience. > > > A lot of it. Using present rockets, about 50,000 to 100,000 years. So we need new rocket systems first. And unless we leap instantly to near lightspeed transport, the first generation ships will be muchly discouraged by the knowledge that their journey will be so long that they will almost certainly be overtaken by second and third generation transports. So first generation ships might as well not bother. > But yes, this is *coool*. Nice to see terrestrials in a double/triple > system. > A very *hot* terrestrial. About 1200 C. Definitely t-shirt and shorts weather. See: > I am going to play Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri with renewed reverence > tonight. > I keep trying, but I still prefer Civilization III. :) BillK From ddraig at gmail.com Wed Oct 17 09:39:38 2012 From: ddraig at gmail.com (ddraig) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 20:39:38 +1100 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> Message-ID: On 17 October 2012 07:53, Adrian Tymes wrote: > More like, thousands of Muslims getting a civics lesson as > their anger backfires. Or a history lesson from the Jews and the Catholics if they overdo it. Dwayne -- ddraig at pobox.com irc.bluesphereweb.com #dna ...r.e.t.u.r.n....t.o....t.h.e....s.o.u.r.c.e... http://tinyurl.com/he-is-right-you-know-jpg our aim is wakefulness, our enemy is dreamless sleep From charlie.stross at gmail.com Wed Oct 17 10:51:48 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 11:51:48 +0100 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: <507E1ABF.3010402@aleph.se> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> <507E1ABF.3010402@aleph.se> Message-ID: <957C746E-85EF-483E-BD62-3A651CF44400@gmail.com> On 17 Oct 2012, at 03:41, Anders Sandberg wrote: > On 16/10/2012 16:48, spike wrote: >> ...You know, of course, that the UK doesn't have a First Amendment right... >> BillK, you lads should get one. Actually you need some second amendment >> rights before you have a chance at having some first amendment rights. > > We need a constitution first. Maybe we should humbly beg Her Majesty for an update on Magna Carta... There is, actually, a British constitution. However, it's not a single document: per a law professor of my acquaintance it's encoded in 24 different Acts of Parliament. It's also a lot easier to change than the US constitution -- but not as easy as most people might imagine (otherwise we wouldn't still have a House of Lords). Turns out that MPs tend to get very independent-minded and will openly defy a three-line whip in the Commons if what's at stake is the legitimacy of the constitutional system within which they operate. -- Charlie From charlie.stross at gmail.com Wed Oct 17 10:49:36 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 11:49:36 +0100 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> Message-ID: <5A3F66AD-94C3-497B-BD94-C45F175BC9F5@gmail.com> On 17 Oct 2012, at 00:48, spike wrote: > > > -----Original Message----- > From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org > [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK > > >> ...You know, of course, that the UK doesn't have a First Amendment right... > > BillK, you lads should get one. Actually you need some second amendment > rights before you have a chance at having some first amendment rights. The gun thing would be wildly unpopular here. Seriously. The handgun ban happened on a wave of public hysteria. Actually, it *is* legal to own a shotgun or rifle in the UK; if I wanted one I could file the forms for a license today and almost certainly get it approved. Limits: no pump-action or sawn-off on the shotgun side, bolt-action only on the rifle. What's totally forbidden are: anything automatic or semi-automatic, suppressors, and modern handguns -- anything that can fire rapidly or be concealed, in other words. Note that the UK population is 80% urban, for values of "urban" that are utterly alien to Americans; if the continental USA was populated to the same density as the UK it would hold roughly the entire current world population (around 7 billion). As for the "armed populace -> free speech (by force if necessary)" trope, it's a canard. For starters, the government *always* has more guns than the public, and better ones at that. For seconds, the US constitution has a first amendment that says the government may not infringe the right to free speech. That is *not* the same as saying that there's free speech. Get back to me when you've sorted out the right of paedophiles to publish child pornography, if you want to assert that you've got free speech. Some types of speech are free-er than others, is all. This is not to say that I don't think free speech is a good idea. But it's a very complex one -- much more complex than most people realize -- and it probably doesn't work without people who have truly internalized the difference between speech and deed: the anti-censorship equivalent of New Soviet Man, in other words. -- Charlie From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Wed Oct 17 15:02:26 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 08:02:26 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Computronium planet. Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 17, 2012 at 5:00 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > On 12/10/2012 08:35, Keith Henson wrote: >> The radiators would depend on what they were doing. Used for fairly >> slow access, a planetary scale device might not need to much cooling. > > Yes, but even a tiny energy usage per cubic meter would get hot fast. A > sphere with radius R producing P Watts per cubic meter will need to get > rid of 4 pi R^3 P/3 Watts. It can radiate from the surface, 4 pi R^2 > epsilon sigma T^4 Watts. That gives an equilibrium temperature of [R P/3 > epsilon sigma]^(1/4). So if R=6e6 meters, P=1e-6 W/m^3 the temperature > will be around 100 K. For a milliwatt it will be 570 K - good for > cooking. A Jupiter-sized version would be just as hot with a microwatt > performance. Agreed. Thinking of information storage without a lot of access. >> It would be an interesting place, dark, faint spill of light around >> the sun blocker, land areas covered with rectennas, fast uploaded >> civilization in the depths heating the the oceans to steaming, >> freezing cold rain falling everywhere, vast rivers running off bare >> rock continents. Inside the simulation conditions could be as nice as >> anyone wanted, but the underlying reality would be stark, worse than >> Mordor. Be hard to detect though, since the shading disk would >> probably be circular. > > Sysop Sauron was watching the cooling indicators of Mount Doom. "We are > seeing a spike in server latency, what the heck are those heavens doing?" > "They are apparently running a cross-civilization marathon game. Should > be over soon when the NPCs have evolved sentience." Small and fast means a lot of waste heat in a small space. Liquid cooling seems like a good idea to take the waste heat from hot computation nodes to where it can radiate to space. I wonder what weather patterns you would get with very little sunlight and most of the heat coming from the oceans? At what light level do the plants die? Are Robert Kennedy's "Dyson Dots" and my power sat proposal on the evolutionary pathway to a dim earth? But this brings up a point. What is the optimal distance from a star to do the most computation? The further out you go, the more collector area you need to power the civilization. Closer than some point gives you more power from the sunshade than you can radiate. Is a planet useful? I think it does for a communicating, fast civilization. But is it more useful than a fog of computronium? At only a modest million to one speedup, stuff on the far side of the Earth's orbit will be over 2000 subjective years away just from speed of light. Keith From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Wed Oct 17 15:06:29 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 17:06:29 +0200 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: <507E1ABF.3010402@aleph.se> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> <507E1ABF.3010402@aleph.se> Message-ID: On 17 October 2012 04:41, Anders Sandberg wrote: > The proper thing to do in response to the age of mockery is of course to > mock the mindset behind it mercilessly. Not the faith, that is beside the > point, but the view that there are ideas that that should not be allowed to > be expressed because somebody might be upset. We could start by criticising > the Muslims for mocking the pre-islamic religions. Then we should point out > that their criticism of mockery outrages many liberal-minded westerners and > hence should stop. > Exactly. And we have already discussed how the Holy Scriptures characterisation of the Devil as, well, evil is indeed offensive to any good Satanist. :-) -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com Wed Oct 17 15:14:13 2012 From: cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com (Henrique Moraes Machado) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 12:14:13 -0300 Subject: [ExI] RES: age of mockery In-Reply-To: <5A3F66AD-94C3-497B-BD94-C45F175BC9F5@gmail.com> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> <5A3F66AD-94C3-497B-BD94-C45F175BC9F5@gmail.com> Message-ID: <009601cdac7a$12b805d0$38281170$@gmail.com> Get back to me when you've sorted out the right of paedophiles to publish child pornography, if you want to assert that you've got free speech. Some types of speech are free-er than others, is all. If one defends the right to publish child pornography that would be free speech. Publishing child pornography would not, since any form of child pornography is a crime. This was not a good example. From anders at aleph.se Wed Oct 17 15:55:24 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 08:55:24 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> Message-ID: <507ED4EC.3090201@aleph.se> On 17/10/2012 02:30, BillK wrote: > On Wed, Oct 17, 2012 at 10:02 AM, BillK wrote: >> Using present rockets, about 50,000 to 100,000 years. >> So we need new rocket systems first. We have convinced ourselves at FHI that interstellar and intergalactic colonization is 'easy' once you have decent nanotechnology and smart software. Laser-propelled microships are probably the way to go - you can likely get enormous acceleration with little heating if you play the optics and materials game right. > That's a very long way away, but it is a bit discouraging that the > universe is expanding at a much faster speed than our best rockets can > reach Ja. We will miss a lot of visible galaxies simply because they will be expanding away faster than we can reach. But we still have a few gigaparsecs to colonize; there are plenty of superclusters to share. A bigger problem is that those superclusters will drift apart. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From charlie.stross at gmail.com Wed Oct 17 16:09:38 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 17:09:38 +0100 Subject: [ExI] RES: age of mockery In-Reply-To: <009601cdac7a$12b805d0$38281170$@gmail.com> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> <5A3F66AD-94C3-497B-BD94-C45F175BC9F5@gmail.com> <009601cdac7a$12b805d0$38281170$@gmail.com> Message-ID: <38A2250B-480A-4EED-B72C-40A5AFB5078D@gmail.com> On 17 Oct 2012, at 16:14, "Henrique Moraes Machado" wrote: > > > Get back to me when you've sorted out the right of > paedophiles to publish child pornography, if you want to assert that you've > got free > speech. Some types of speech are free-er than others, is all. > > > If one defends the right to publish child pornography that would be free > speech. Publishing child pornography would not, since any form of child > pornography is a crime. > This was not a good example. On the contrary; the criminalization of child pornography is a *perfect* example of why we don't actually have free speech in the west. (A case can be made that photographs of child abuse are evidence of a crime being committed. But what about cartoons, or textual descriptions? One of which is explicitly, and the other of which is implicitly, illegal in the UK?) -- Charlie From atymes at gmail.com Wed Oct 17 17:15:46 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 10:15:46 -0700 Subject: [ExI] RES: age of mockery In-Reply-To: <38A2250B-480A-4EED-B72C-40A5AFB5078D@gmail.com> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> <5A3F66AD-94C3-497B-BD94-C45F175BC9F5@gmail.com> <009601cdac7a$12b805d0$38281170$@gmail.com> <38A2250B-480A-4EED-B72C-40A5AFB5078D@gmail.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 17, 2012 at 9:09 AM, Charlie Stross wrote: > On the contrary; the criminalization of child pornography is a *perfect* example of why we don't actually have free speech in the west. > > (A case can be made that photographs of child abuse are evidence of a crime being committed. But what about cartoons, or textual descriptions? One of which is explicitly, and the other of which is implicitly, illegal in the UK?) IIRC, said cartoons and textual descriptions have been found legal in the US (so far as regular pornography is legal). Only photos are illegal, since they are provably impossible to create and share without committing a crime (at least outside of certain purposes - primarily medical - which require prior licensing of the involved adults). (Note that, for legal purposes, extremely realistic CGI is considered a "cartoon", not a "photo", in this case. However, the criminal justice system does not require 100% proof - since that can not be obtained in many cases - so anyone claiming their images were such CGI would have a heavy burden of proof. Still, if they could prove it, they might go free. Though if such a tactic became widespread, things would get "interesting", as in the Chinese curse.) From moulton at moulton.com Wed Oct 17 17:42:10 2012 From: moulton at moulton.com (F. C. Moulton) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 10:42:10 -0700 Subject: [ExI] RES: age of mockery In-Reply-To: <38A2250B-480A-4EED-B72C-40A5AFB5078D@gmail.com> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> <5A3F66AD-94C3-497B-BD94-C45F175BC9F5@gmail.com> <009601cdac7a$12b805d0$38281170$@gmail.com> <38A2250B-480A-4EED-B72C-40A5AFB5078D@gmail.com> Message-ID: <507EEDF2.9020402@moulton.com> On 10/17/2012 09:09 AM, Charlie Stross wrote: > > On 17 Oct 2012, at 16:14, "Henrique Moraes Machado" wrote: >> >> If one defends the right to publish child pornography that would be free >> speech. Publishing child pornography would not, since any form of child >> pornography is a crime. >> This was not a good example. > > On the contrary; the criminalization of child pornography is a *perfect* example of why we don't actually have free speech in the west. > > (A case can be made that photographs of child abuse are evidence of a crime being committed. But what about cartoons, or textual descriptions? One of which is explicitly, and the other of which is implicitly, illegal in the UK?) > To elaborate a bit on Charlie's point; a great deal of caution is needed when discussing 'child pornography'. The definition varies depending on legal jurisdiction; do not assume that when you hear the words 'child porn' that those words necessarily involves some dirty old man video taping the rape of a child; the term might being used to refer to something entirely different. Unfortunately persons who want to push particular political agendas can utilize this confusion. Consider the sexting practice among teens; that is a legal mess and new laws are being proposed. In the mean time a lot of people are harmed by prosecutors who appear to me to be more interested in climbing the political ladder than really being concerned about those person who are prosecuted. Consider this news items from a couple of years ago: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-6552438.html Fred From msd001 at gmail.com Wed Oct 17 19:01:42 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 15:01:42 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 17, 2012 at 5:02 AM, BillK wrote: > And unless we leap instantly to near lightspeed transport, the first > generation ships will be muchly discouraged by the knowledge that > their journey will be so long that they will almost certainly be > overtaken by second and third generation transports. So first > generation ships might as well not bother. So the first ship ("B Ark") to send should be the hairdressers, advertising account executives, et al. with the intention that the second ship containing the rest of humanity would arrive first and build a world for the first ship to inhabit? I think I've read about this plan somewhere... From lubkin at unreasonable.com Wed Oct 17 20:19:34 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 16:19:34 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> Message-ID: <201210172019.q9HKJn3p027662@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Bill K wrote: >Using present rockets, about 50,000 to 100,000 years. >So we need new rocket systems first. >And unless we leap instantly to near lightspeed transport, the first >generation ships will be muchly discouraged by the knowledge that >their journey will be so long that they will almost certainly be >overtaken by second and third generation transports. So first >generation ships might as well not bother. Reread what I wrote: >This is one we could get to. Worst case, expand across the millennia. From >the Kuiper Belt to our Oort Cloud to Alpha Centauri's, which is believed to >exist and overlap with ours. > >So we don't need a starship, uploading, or MNT. Just patience. Colonize the asteroid belt. One rock at a time. When you need elbow room, expand to the Kuiper Belt. From there to our Oort Cloud. From there to Alpha Centauri's Oort Cloud. And out to the rest of the accessible galaxy. One rock at a time outward, until we get there. No new rocket systems. No MNT. No uploading. Just the tech to survive without a nearby star and to reach the next rock. Civilization is always just a rock or three behind, so if your ship is on the fritz, you can call AAA. I'm not saying that's what I expect or want. I *am* claiming that it's a workable route to the stars with relatively small improvements in tech over today. And without a trillion-dollar project. -- David. From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Thu Oct 18 00:08:37 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 02:08:37 +0200 Subject: [ExI] RES: age of mockery In-Reply-To: <38A2250B-480A-4EED-B72C-40A5AFB5078D@gmail.com> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> <5A3F66AD-94C3-497B-BD94-C45F175BC9F5@gmail.com> <009601cdac7a$12b805d0$38281170$@gmail.com> <38A2250B-480A-4EED-B72C-40A5AFB5078D@gmail.com> Message-ID: On 17 October 2012 18:09, Charlie Stross wrote: > On the contrary; the criminalization of child pornography is a *perfect* > example of why we don't actually have free speech in the west. > > (A case can be made that photographs of child abuse are evidence of a > crime being committed. But what about cartoons, or textual descriptions? > One of which is explicitly, and the other of which is implicitly, illegal > in the UK?) > The subject of "children pornography" is a perfect litmus test in any discussion on freedom of speech, because paedophilia involves a tiny minority of the population, whose an even smaller percentage does not feel guilty about their sexual orientation, and is simply horrifying to many non-paedophiles. Now, in Italy laws exist against statutory rape of children. No big deal, rather obvious rationales exist behind such legislation even though sometimes no conceivable "rape", including in a metaphorical sense is actually taking place. Then, a prohibition exists against pornography representing that, even though arguably the children's interest are not further affected by that (let alone in the event of fake reproductions, or of purely artificial pornography, say, of a computer-generated, literary or pictorial nature). Then, Then, there mere *possession* of such material, unless you can offer evidence that this is entirely involuntary, and irrespective of the fact that one might have obtained it for free and for his or her private use, become punishable. Then, a law has just being enacted sanctioning... the mere apology of child pornography. I fully expect that criticising the law sanctioning the apology of child pornography will soon be criminalised as well, and surely any such criticism would already be automatically banned by any mass media or public debate. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Thu Oct 18 05:14:44 2012 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 22:14:44 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Computronium planet. In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: I sure miss Robert Bradbury taking part in discussions like this one... John : ( On Wed, Oct 17, 2012 at 8:02 AM, Keith Henson wrote: > On Wed, Oct 17, 2012 at 5:00 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > > > On 12/10/2012 08:35, Keith Henson wrote: > >> The radiators would depend on what they were doing. Used for fairly > >> slow access, a planetary scale device might not need to much cooling. > > > > Yes, but even a tiny energy usage per cubic meter would get hot fast. A > > sphere with radius R producing P Watts per cubic meter will need to get > > rid of 4 pi R^3 P/3 Watts. It can radiate from the surface, 4 pi R^2 > > epsilon sigma T^4 Watts. That gives an equilibrium temperature of [R P/3 > > epsilon sigma]^(1/4). So if R=6e6 meters, P=1e-6 W/m^3 the temperature > > will be around 100 K. For a milliwatt it will be 570 K - good for > > cooking. A Jupiter-sized version would be just as hot with a microwatt > > performance. > > Agreed. Thinking of information storage without a lot of access. > > >> It would be an interesting place, dark, faint spill of light around > >> the sun blocker, land areas covered with rectennas, fast uploaded > >> civilization in the depths heating the the oceans to steaming, > >> freezing cold rain falling everywhere, vast rivers running off bare > >> rock continents. Inside the simulation conditions could be as nice as > >> anyone wanted, but the underlying reality would be stark, worse than > >> Mordor. Be hard to detect though, since the shading disk would > >> probably be circular. > > > > Sysop Sauron was watching the cooling indicators of Mount Doom. "We are > > seeing a spike in server latency, what the heck are those heavens doing?" > > "They are apparently running a cross-civilization marathon game. Should > > be over soon when the NPCs have evolved sentience." > > Small and fast means a lot of waste heat in a small space. Liquid > cooling seems like a good idea to take the waste heat from hot > computation nodes to where it can radiate to space. I wonder what > weather patterns you would get with very little sunlight and most of > the heat coming from the oceans? At what light level do the plants > die? Are Robert Kennedy's "Dyson Dots" and my power sat proposal on > the evolutionary pathway to a dim earth? > > But this brings up a point. What is the optimal distance from a star > to do the most computation? The further out you go, the more > collector area you need to power the civilization. Closer than some > point gives you more power from the sunshade than you can radiate. > > Is a planet useful? I think it does for a communicating, fast > civilization. But is it more useful than a fog of computronium? At > only a modest million to one speedup, stuff on the far side of the > Earth's orbit will be over 2000 subjective years away just from speed > of light. > > Keith > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From jrd1415 at gmail.com Thu Oct 18 05:33:39 2012 From: jrd1415 at gmail.com (Jeff Davis) Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2012 23:33:39 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 17, 2012 at 3:02 AM, BillK wrote: > And unless we leap instantly to near lightspeed transport, the first generation ships will be muchly discouraged by the knowledge that their journey will be so long that they will almost certainly be overtaken by second and third generation transports. > So first generation ships might as well not bother. Let's see... First gen ships set out. Gonna be a bunch of people, and it's gonna be a long trip, so there'll be lots of supplies, and a very big ship. Perhaps hundreds of miles long and tens of miles wide. Fully shielded and with sufficient energy stores and the necessarily proportionate supply of reaction mass. For both acceleration and braking, of course.. Big. Very big. If most everyone cycles into and out of suspension, and everything is destination focused, you reduce the need for supplies and the ship can be smaller. But if the awake population is large and actively living their lives aboard ship, then you have a really large ship. Now, to my point. Later generations of ships might not get there first. Contact with the home planet would be continuous, no? Advances in ship design originating on the home planet would be communicated to the ship, no?, and the ship upgraded, no? Also, aboard ship there would be particular interest in such performance upgrades, and so research along those lines would be a priority. Consequently, the shipboard culture would quite possibly be in the vanguard of starship technology. I mention this because the old notion about the futility of setting out at all, because someone will inevitably be there to greet you when you arrive,...has always been bothersome to me. the self-fulfilling self-defeating character of it. So now consider it a race. The first to set out, likely to be the first to get there (or alternatively, disappear into the cold unfeeling void). Best, Jeff Davis "My guess is that people don't yet realize how "handy" an indefinite lifespan will be." J Corbally From pharos at gmail.com Thu Oct 18 10:19:35 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 11:19:35 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: <201210172019.q9HKJn3p027662@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> <201210172019.q9HKJn3p027662@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 17, 2012 at 9:19 PM, David Lubkin wrote: > Colonize the asteroid belt. One rock at a time. When you need > elbow room, expand to the Kuiper Belt. From there to our Oort > Cloud. From there to Alpha Centauri's Oort Cloud. And out to > the rest of the accessible galaxy. > > One rock at a time outward, until we get there. No new rocket > systems. No MNT. No uploading. Just the tech to survive without > a nearby star and to reach the next rock. Civilization is always > just a rock or three behind, so if your ship is on the fritz, you can > call AAA. > > I'm not saying that's what I expect or want. I *am* claiming that > it's a workable route to the stars with relatively small improvements > in tech over today. And without a trillion-dollar project. > I think 'workable route' is not the best description. Perhaps a better description is 'just within the realm of possibility, if all other options fail'. It is a very long-term option, so likely to be side-stepped by other developments. Our populations won't want to go and live on a bleak airless rock in the asteroid belt. So there must be many other changes going on to make this feasible. Selecting the future line which would make this the best option appears to me to discount many other more likely future paths for humanity. BillK From pharos at gmail.com Thu Oct 18 10:44:37 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 11:44:37 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 18, 2012 at 6:33 AM, Jeff Davis wrote: > First gen ships set out. Gonna be a bunch of people, and it's gonna be > a long trip, so there'll be lots of supplies, and a very big ship. > Perhaps hundreds of miles long and tens of miles wide. Fully shielded > and with sufficient energy stores and the necessarily proportionate > supply of reaction mass. For both acceleration and braking, of > course.. Big. Very big. > > If most everyone cycles into and out of suspension, and everything is > destination focused, you reduce the need for supplies and the ship can > be smaller. But if the awake population is large and actively living > their lives aboard ship, then you have a really large ship. > Large interstellar ships the size of cities which take many generations to arrive at the nearest star are one often considered option. The main problem I see is persuading that many people that that is the way they want themselves and their descendents to live. This option is usually suggested as a desperation measure in the face of the imminent destruction of Earth. So it is not really a method of choice. Most people would rather wait for the new Chinese high-speed train instead. > Now, to my point. Later generations of ships might not get there first. > > Contact with the home planet would be continuous, no? Advances in > ship design originating on the home planet would be communicated to > the ship, no?, and the ship upgraded, no? Also, aboard ship there > would be particular interest in such performance upgrades, and so > research along those lines would be a priority. Consequently, the > shipboard culture would quite possibly be in the vanguard of starship > technology. > You need a really huge ship that contains science labs and manufacturing facilities (and raw materials). And scientists to understand the tech sent from Earth and universities to train future generations. The ship is going interstellar, so there will be years of delay in communication. > I mention this because the old notion about the futility of setting > out at all, because someone will inevitably be there to greet you when > you arrive,...has always been bothersome to me. the self-fulfilling > self-defeating character of it. > Unfortunately the universe doesn't care about our feelings. BillK From pharos at gmail.com Thu Oct 18 12:22:03 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 13:22:03 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Top 10 Stories Under-Reported by the Mainstream Media Message-ID: See: 1. Signs of an emerging police state 2. Oceans in peril 3. U.S. deaths from Fukushima 4. FBI agents responsible for terrorist plots 5. Federal Reserve loaned trillions to major banks 6. Small network of corporations run the global economy 7. The International Year of Cooperative 8. NATO war crimes in Libya 9. Prison slavery in the U.S. 10. H.R. 347 criminalizes protest BillK From atymes at gmail.com Thu Oct 18 15:40:54 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 08:40:54 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> <201210172019.q9HKJn3p027662@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Oct 18, 2012 3:21 AM, "BillK" wrote: > Our populations won't want to go and live on a bleak airless rock in > the asteroid belt. So there must be many other changes going on to > make this feasible. Such as making them lush and with-air. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Thu Oct 18 15:42:30 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 17:42:30 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> Message-ID: On 18 October 2012 12:44, BillK wrote: > Large interstellar ships the size of cities which take many > generations to arrive at the nearest star are one often considered > option. The main problem I see is persuading that many people that > that is the way they want themselves and their descendents to live. > Mmhhh, life on a starship need not be so much less pleasant than life on a planet. Even though I suspect that the idea of having passengers suspended or in "slow time" will always make more sense to limit the mass to be taken around... -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Thu Oct 18 22:56:27 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 15:56:27 -0700 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: <957C746E-85EF-483E-BD62-3A651CF44400@gmail.com> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> <507E1ABF.3010402@aleph.se> <957C746E-85EF-483E-BD62-3A651CF44400@gmail.com> Message-ID: <00ea01cdad83$ce768fd0$6b63af70$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Charlie Stross Subject: Re: [ExI] age of mockery On 17 Oct 2012, at 03:41, Anders Sandberg wrote: > On 16/10/2012 16:48, spike wrote: >>>> ...You know, of course, that the UK doesn't have a First Amendment right... BillK >>> BillK, you lads should get one... >> We need a constitution first. Maybe we should humbly beg Her Majesty for an update on Magna Carta... >...There is, actually, a British constitution. However, it's not a single document: per a law professor of my acquaintance it's encoded in 24 different Acts of Parliament...-- Charlie _______________________________________________ Hmmm, this discussion makes my point before I even start to write. There is a fundamental disconnect between the Brits and the Yanks. We do not beg Her Majesty, our Parliament, our congress, or anyone else, for anything found in the Bill of Rights. We made it clear up front, in the constitution that we have certain fundamental rights, listed in our first ten amendments, appropriately called the Bill of Rights, not granted by the government but rather inalienable rights. We do not derive these from consent of the government, the UN or anyone. We granted some rights to the government, and retained some. The government's opinion is irrelevant to these rights. The way the constitution is constructed, these are our rights regardless of the government. Should the US government fail, collapse, go out of business, we the people retain the rights listed in those ten amendments. We do not ask permission for that which we own. The government does not have the right to infringe upon those rights, not now, not later, case closed. I love our constitution. spike From spike66 at att.net Thu Oct 18 23:01:46 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 16:01:46 -0700 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: <5A3F66AD-94C3-497B-BD94-C45F175BC9F5@gmail.com> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> <5A3F66AD-94C3-497B-BD94-C45F175BC9F5@gmail.com> Message-ID: <00eb01cdad84$8cca9f30$a65fdd90$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Charlie Stross >... >...As for the "armed populace -> free speech (by force if necessary)" trope, it's a canard. For starters, the government *always* has more guns than the public, and better ones at that...-- Charlie _______________________________________________ Ja, Charlie this is actually a good thing. As soon as the government steps outside its clearly-defined boundaries, all those government guns are on our side, for it is no longer the legitimate government. That's why we have clearly-defined legal boundaries to how far the government can go. I love our constitution. spike From peteni22 at hotmail.com Thu Oct 18 16:51:20 2012 From: peteni22 at hotmail.com (Pete Nicholls) Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 16:51:20 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com>, <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se>, , <201210172019.q9HKJn3p027662@andromeda.ziaspace.com>, Message-ID: It is important to remember that it will be trans-humanity, adapted and adaptable intellectually to the necessities of 'bleak airless rock', educated with that purpose as a foundation. I'm not suggesting 'zombies but that there could be rewards of some other form, a virtual nirvana for part of the journey, cities named after them...on home planet and new...we all have our price. The real point is that we should be educating for this now...not spending resources; both physical and cereberal on our, rather pitiful past. I love history, enjoy the built environment, wish to see continuity on earth but for all our exploration of this planet and ourselves we seem to have lost the risk of high adventure. Engendering the inquisitive spirit to 'seek out' and all that would focus purpose and be somewhat more exciting than the pseudo excitement generated by 'olympics', celebrity culture etc. The real job of the present interested parties is to get out there and promote and educate. Ideas like 'X' Prize are great but to tap the greatest resource we have; ourselves we need to push everything down the public education ladder to the bottom and grow it from there. PeteN > Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 11:19:35 +0100 > From: pharos at gmail.com > To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > Subject: Re: [ExI] Alpha Centauri > > On Wed, Oct 17, 2012 at 9:19 PM, David Lubkin wrote: > > Colonize the asteroid belt. One rock at a time. When you need > > elbow room, expand to the Kuiper Belt. From there to our Oort > > Cloud. From there to Alpha Centauri's Oort Cloud. And out to > > the rest of the accessible galaxy. > > > > One rock at a time outward, until we get there. No new rocket > > systems. No MNT. No uploading. Just the tech to survive without > > a nearby star and to reach the next rock. Civilization is always > > just a rock or three behind, so if your ship is on the fritz, you can > > call AAA. > > > > I'm not saying that's what I expect or want. I *am* claiming that > > it's a workable route to the stars with relatively small improvements > > in tech over today. And without a trillion-dollar project. > > > > I think 'workable route' is not the best description. > Perhaps a better description is 'just within the realm of possibility, > if all other options fail'. > > It is a very long-term option, so likely to be side-stepped by other > developments. > > Our populations won't want to go and live on a bleak airless rock in > the asteroid belt. So there must be many other changes going on to > make this feasible. Selecting the future line which would make this > the best option appears to me to discount many other more likely > future paths for humanity. > > > BillK > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Fri Oct 19 03:51:51 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 20:51:51 -0700 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: <00ea01cdad83$ce768fd0$6b63af70$@att.net> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> <507E1ABF.3010402@aleph.se> <957C746E-85EF-483E-BD62-3A651CF44400@gmail.com> <00ea01cdad83$ce768fd0$6b63af70$@att.net> Message-ID: <5080CE57.1040003@aleph.se> On 18/10/2012 15:56, spike wrote: > There is a fundamental disconnect between the Brits and the Yanks. We > do not beg Her Majesty, our Parliament, our congress, or anyone else, > for anything found in the Bill of Rights. We made it clear up front, > in the constitution that we have certain fundamental rights, listed in > our first ten amendments, appropriately called the Bill of Rights, not > granted by the government but rather inalienable rights. While I am a fan of good, clear liberal democratic constitutions like the US one, there are plenty of devils hiding in the practical details. As any lawyer can tell you, the nature and interpretation of the constitution is pretty dynamic. Hence how "interstate commerce" can excuse nearly any bizarre federal regulation. People love to claim something is unconstitutional, but how often are such claims actually upheld by the courts? > The government does not have the right to infringe upon those rights, > not now, not later, case closed. This is a moral claim, not a legal one. Yes, if the government infringes on the rights it is acting morally wrong (even if someone does not buy the view that the constitution is morally True, if a government has agreed to being bound by the constitution it would be breaking its promise if it broke the constitution). But the moral weight of the constitution does not necessarily lead to laws or behavior that respect the rights: that is up to courts, politicians and the dirty Realpolitik of society to achieve. The Brits only have the later part, they can not claim the constitution is any moral guideline. But then again, it might be more honest to admit that a lot of politicking is just politicking rather than a profound moral process. (If we Europeans really want to have the moral grandeur, we can of course drag stuff to the European Court... but it is more like gambling. The fact that human dignity got "defined" on the EU level thanks to a case involving banning laser tag in Germany is pretty bizarre.) -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From anders at aleph.se Fri Oct 19 04:21:45 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 21:21:45 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Computronium planet. In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <5080D559.3060807@aleph.se> On 17/10/2012 08:02, Keith Henson wrote: > I wonder what weather patterns you would get with very little sunlight > and most of the heat coming from the oceans? It somewhat depends on the rotation rate, but it would likely involve big convection cells over the oceans and plenty of rain across the continents. Rotation smears things out by Coriolis into Hadley cells. > At what light level do the plants die? Shade plants can survive down to a few Watts per m^2. Cave algae can likely go even lower. For a hot world IR might actually supply enough energy to photosynthesis: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22467501 > What is the optimal distance from a star to do the most computation? > The further out you go, the more collector area you need to power the > civilization. Closer than some point gives you more power from the > sunshade than you can radiate. You can transmit it by laser, and if you have a big phased array on your Dyson you can have a thin beam waist at the combined solar shade/antenna. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From spike66 at att.net Fri Oct 19 04:28:42 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 21:28:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: <5080CE57.1040003@aleph.se> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> <507E1ABF.3010402@aleph.se> <957C746E-85EF-483E-BD62-3A651CF44400@gmail.com> <00ea01cdad83$ce768fd0$6b63af70$@att.net> <5080CE57.1040003@aleph.se> Message-ID: <015001cdadb2$3928ede0$ab7ac9a0$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg Subject: Re: [ExI] age of mockery On 18/10/2012 15:56, spike wrote: >> ...There is a fundamental disconnect between the Brits and the Yanks. We > do not beg Her Majesty, our Parliament, our congress, or anyone else, > for anything found in the Bill of Rights... >...While I am a fan of good, clear liberal democratic constitutions like the US one, there are plenty of devils hiding in the practical details... Oy vey, ja. Example, the recent experience with the US supreme court deciding on the constitutionality of the health care law. >...As any lawyer can tell you, the nature and interpretation of the constitution is pretty dynamic. Hence how "interstate commerce" can excuse nearly any bizarre federal regulation... This really worried me that the SCOTUS would find the health care law constitutional on the interstate commerce clause. Had they done this, it would have opened the door to the fed doing pretty much anything it wanted, then coming up with some tortured line of reasoning that it was based on regulating interstate commerce. As it is, the law was upheld, sorta. They declared the penalty for not buying health insurance a tax, then set the tax so low it is waaaaay cheaper than buying the insurance. How is that going to work? >... People love to claim something is unconstitutional, but how often are such claims actually upheld by the courts? Not nearly often enough, tragically. However I have a lot of new hope. >>... The government does not have the right to infringe upon those rights, not now, not later, case closed. >...This is a moral claim, not a legal one... As I read the language of the Bill of Rights, it feels like a legal and moral claim. Of course I am not a lawyer. >... Yes, if the government infringes on the rights it is acting morally wrong (even if someone does not buy the view that the constitution is morally True, if a government has agreed to being bound by the constitution it would be breaking its promise if it broke the constitution)... Anders Sandberg Ja, and you make an excellent point. The original comment was a reply to a comment about the government having more and better guns, etc. But my notion is that if the government began issuing blatantly illegal orders to the military, that government would no longer have those more and better guns. I have known a number of military people over the years, and I must give the military credit where it is due: they do an excellent job of training their people, both officers and enlisted, that their duty is to the constitution, not to their commanders. They are trained to follow their orders, but also to recognize illegal orders, regardless of who issues them. Any order that countermands any of the rights guaranteed by the constitution are illegal orders. So now we have a constitution carefully designed by a group of guys who fought what they saw as an out-of-control government, to prevent the new government from going out of control itself. And today, anyone who insists on all the restrictions carefully designed by those guys are called Tea Partiers. Hmmm, OK cool, I wear that label with pride. I think it's a great constitution. In my next post I will steer back to the mockery concept which is really what started the discussion. spike From ddraig at gmail.com Fri Oct 19 07:47:34 2012 From: ddraig at gmail.com (ddraig) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 18:47:34 +1100 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> Message-ID: On 17 October 2012 20:02, BillK wrote: > Using present rockets, about 50,000 to 100,000 years. > So we need new rocket systems first. > And unless we leap instantly to near lightspeed transport, the first > generation ships will be muchly discouraged by the knowledge that > their journey will be so long that they will almost certainly be > overtaken by second and third generation transports. Isn't this a major aspect of The Forever War? Dwayne -- ddraig at pobox.com irc.bluesphereweb.com #dna ...r.e.t.u.r.n....t.o....t.h.e....s.o.u.r.c.e... http://tinyurl.com/he-is-right-you-know-jpg our aim is wakefulness, our enemy is dreamless sleep From bbenzai at yahoo.com Fri Oct 19 14:16:35 2012 From: bbenzai at yahoo.com (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 07:16:35 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] Top 10 Stories Under-Reported by the Mainstream Media In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1350656195.47083.YahooMailClassic@web114403.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> BillK reported: > See: > > > 1. Signs of an emerging police state > 2. Oceans in peril > 3. U.S. deaths from Fukushima > 4. FBI agents responsible for terrorist plots > 5. Federal Reserve loaned trillions to major banks > 6. Small network of corporations run the global economy > 7. The International Year of Cooperative > 8. NATO war crimes in Libya > 9. Prison slavery in the U.S. > 10. H.R. 347 criminalizes protest Yeah, I stopped reading at No. 3, as will many other people, I'm sure. This kind of thing doesn't help when there are genuine issues of important stories that go unreported. Oh, here's a conspiracy theory: Maybe that site is secretly government-controlled, to seed crackpottery among the genuine stories, so that people just roll their eyes and move on. Ben Zaiboc From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Fri Oct 19 14:39:12 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 16:39:12 +0200 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: <5080CE57.1040003@aleph.se> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> <507E1ABF.3010402@aleph.se> <957C746E-85EF-483E-BD62-3A651CF44400@gmail.com> <00ea01cdad83$ce768fd0$6b63af70$@att.net> <5080CE57.1040003@aleph.se> Message-ID: On 19 October 2012 05:51, Anders Sandberg wrote: > The Brits only have the later part, they can not claim the constitution is > any moral guideline. But then again, it might be more honest to admit that > a lot of politicking is just politicking rather than a profound moral > process. > Every conceivable regime has of course a material constitution, including that of Ghengis Khan. Additionally, the US constitution *is* amendable, and nothing prevents the country from being transformed in a Louis XIV-like monarchy through the appropriate, constitutionally sanctioned, procedures. It is true, however, that the lack of a "formal" constitution, meaning a statute regulating the fundamental working of the pertinent legal system, adopted with special emphasis and changeable only with more formalities than ordinary legislation, makes England singularly prone to whim-of-the-day change to what used to be considered as "fundamental rights". The "democratic" turn itself of the English constitution, where the Parliament has for long been taking liberties with the local common law and legal traditions that once would have been unthinkable, strengthens this trend. Take for instance the "right to remain silent", equivalent to the US Fifth Amendment and enshrined in some continental constitutions. A prosecution-friendly majority does not like it, wham, it's gone. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Fri Oct 19 15:05:21 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 11:05:21 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Top 10 Stories Under-Reported by the Mainstream Media In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 18, 2012 at 8:22 AM, BillK wrote: > > 1. Signs of an emerging police state > 2. Oceans in peril > 3. U.S. deaths from Fukushima > 4. FBI agents responsible for terrorist plots > 5. Federal Reserve loaned trillions to major banks > 6. Small network of corporations run the global economy > 7. The International Year of Cooperative > 8. NATO war crimes in Libya > 9. Prison slavery in the U.S. > 10. H.R. 347 criminalizes protest > The first 2 could well be on a list of the most OVER REPORTED stories not just of the year but of the century. I've been reading scary stories about "an emerging police state" for as long as I can remember and breathless stories of questionable scientific quality screaming about impending environmental collapse are a dime a dozen. Evil corporations that rule the world has been "reported" to death, and as for "The International Year of Cooperative", what is there to report on? John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Fri Oct 19 17:00:40 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 10:00:40 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Constitution, function of government, was age of mockery Message-ID: On Fri, Oct 19, 2012 at 5:00 AM, "spike" wrote: > The government does not have the right to > infringe upon those rights, not now, not later, case closed. > > I love our constitution. The constitution may be OK, but as you know, I am soured on the US government by a number of bitter experiences. A main reason for governments to exist at all is to protect people from criminals. In my case, the government was on the side of the criminals. That started with Judge Whyte ruling that copyright trumped the public's right to know about criminal acts as described in NOTs 34. http://www.xenu-directory.net/opinions/hausherr1998.html And continued with Riverside county filing "terrorists" charges against me for picketing the cult over their lethal practices. This is the place. http://blogs.villagevoice.com/runninscared/2012/08/scientology_concentration_camp_the_hole.php Eventually there will be a fire in the building. There are bars over the windows so none of them can escape. Forty or fifty of them will die. Someone could in theory report this, but it's not clear where and it is certainly doubtful that anyone from the county would enforce it. Keith From anders at aleph.se Fri Oct 19 17:55:41 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 10:55:41 -0700 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> <507E1ABF.3010402@aleph.se> <957C746E-85EF-483E-BD62-3A651CF44400@gmail.com> <00ea01cdad83$ce768fd0$6b63af70$@att.net> <5080CE57.1040003@aleph.se> Message-ID: <5081941D.4050008@aleph.se> On 19/10/2012 07:39, Stefano Vaj wrote: > It is true, however, that the lack of a "formal" constitution, meaning > a statute regulating the fundamental working of the pertinent legal > system, adopted with special emphasis and changeable only with more > formalities than ordinary legislation, makes England singularly prone > to whim-of-the-day change to what used to be considered as > "fundamental rights". In theory. In practice, like everything in the glorious mess that is England, change is slow. The reason things don't break is that tradition is paramount: precendent, habit and interwoven institutions make it very hard to implement those whims. Sure, government can easily pass laws... but to actually change something is a bit like boxing with a pillow. You have to maintain pressure consistently for a long while to get the change to percolate through the system. In specific, narrow questions Britain can go very far. But they better be something few are involved in or care about. > Take for instance the "right to remain silent", equivalent to the US > Fifth Amendment and enshrined in some continental constitutions. A > prosecution-friendly majority does not like it, wham, it's gone. Did that ever exist here? I can't recall seeing anything like it. Most famously the UK doesn't accept that people refuse to give out keys to encrypted information, which in theory can lead to some nasty stuff. That gigabyte of astronomical data *might* be a steganographic volume after all, despite my protestations. But again, just like the law prohibiting having information of use to terrorists, the application and enforcement is totally arbitrary (and very rare). The real problem is of course that common law + overbroad laws + spotty enforcement = rule of men, not laws = bad. Except that it is always local and spotty. Very British, in short. The UK could be a nasty police state if it got its act together. This is why I actually like the traditionalism and incompetence... -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From anders at aleph.se Fri Oct 19 18:06:14 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 11:06:14 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Top 10 Stories Under-Reported by the Mainstream Media In-Reply-To: <1350656195.47083.YahooMailClassic@web114403.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> References: <1350656195.47083.YahooMailClassic@web114403.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <50819696.1070300@aleph.se> On 19/10/2012 07:16, Ben Zaiboc wrote: > BillK reported: > >> See: >> The problem is not that these are censored: anybody who reads widely will surely know about them (I think I recognized the majority straight away). Yes, most people will likely miss them. But that is not the same thing as censorship, the active and deliberate silencing of information. The big problem is the passive and pervasive filtering going on. Broadcast-type media (newspapers, radio, TV, major blogs) have limited bandwidth, so they focus on what they think are important or what their customers will want. That removes a lot of information. The same filtering happens inside their organisation when deciding what to air, what to investigate or what to pay attention to. And consumers do the same: they filter out stuff that is uninteresting, depressing, against their views or they don't think they need. Narrowcast media like blogs may focus on very different things, but again their information will be taken up only if there are enough interested readers. This produces very powerful biasing effects. Consider the over-reporting of certain kinds of scientific findings like "X is bad for you". Since threats are salient they will get reported more, even if they are due to p=0.05 errors. This happens in multiplicative stages: the researchers will likely push the finding more to the university press department, which will produce press releases more likely to be noticed by media, who are more likely to run the story, and the readers are more likely to read it. Result: every stage amplifies the bias, and the public can be consistently misinformed even though nobody tried to do it deliberately. Since the number of stages of media transmission is increasing and filtering is becoming ever easier (and necessary, because of the vast amount of media), this is deeply worrysome and quite likely a danger for the the epistemic future of our civilisation. But it is not censorship. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From pharos at gmail.com Fri Oct 19 18:16:24 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 19:16:24 +0100 Subject: [ExI] age of mockery In-Reply-To: <5081941D.4050008@aleph.se> References: <118801cdabcb$d9e9a050$8dbce0f0$@att.net> <121701cdabf8$b1b4aee0$151e0ca0$@att.net> <507E1ABF.3010402@aleph.se> <957C746E-85EF-483E-BD62-3A651CF44400@gmail.com> <00ea01cdad83$ce768fd0$6b63af70$@att.net> <5080CE57.1040003@aleph.se> <5081941D.4050008@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Fri, Oct 19, 2012 at 6:55 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > Most famously the UK doesn't accept that people refuse to give out keys to > encrypted information, which in theory can lead to some nasty stuff. > > The UK could be a nasty police state if it got its act together. This is why > I actually like the traditionalism and incompetence... > In the UK there is still a general right to silence. That's why the police officially caution people about this when they arrest them. But there are consequences to remaining silent. The jury or magistrate is entitled to think you have got something to hide. The two big exceptions are terrorism and the Serious Fraud Office. Also divulging computer encryption keys, as you mention. (Mainly because the police don't have the expertise or the time necessary to break encryption in the thousands of computers they seize). BillK From jrd1415 at gmail.com Fri Oct 19 18:16:55 2012 From: jrd1415 at gmail.com (Jeff Davis) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 12:16:55 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 18, 2012 at 4:44 AM, BillK wrote: > On Thu, Oct 18, 2012 at 6:33 AM, Jeff Davis wrote: >> First gen ships set out. Gonna be a bunch of people, and it's gonna be >> a long trip, so there'll be lots of supplies, and a very big ship. >> Perhaps hundreds of miles long and tens of miles wide. Fully shielded >> and with sufficient energy stores and the necessarily proportionate >> supply of reaction mass. For both acceleration and braking, of >> course.. Big. Very big. >> >> If most everyone cycles into and out of suspension, and everything is >> destination focused, you reduce the need for supplies and the ship can >> be smaller. But if the awake population is large and actively living >> their lives aboard ship, then you have a really large ship. >> > > > Large interstellar ships the size of cities which take many > generations to arrive at the nearest star are one often considered > option. The main problem I see is persuading that many people that > that is the way they want themselves and their descendents to live. I don't see that as a problem. I believe that any number of millions would love to get the hell off this moron planet, where they are treated like cattle by the Mafia sovereignties and their dictatorial ruling elites. A poll needs to be taken to answer the question. > This option is usually suggested as a desperation measure in the face > of the imminent destruction of Earth. So it is not really a method of > choice. Most people would rather wait for the new Chinese high-speed > train instead. > > >> Now, to my point. Later generations of ships might not get there first. >> >> Contact with the home planet would be continuous, no? Advances in >> ship design originating on the home planet would be communicated to >> the ship, no?, and the ship upgraded, no? Also, aboard ship there >> would be particular interest in such performance upgrades, and so >> research along those lines would be a priority. Consequently, the >> shipboard culture would quite possibly be in the vanguard of starship >> technology. >> > > You need a really huge ship Bingo! Really big. But that's no problem. The Asteroid belt, Kuiper Belt, and Oort cloud have all the raw materials necessary. > that contains science labs and > manufacturing facilities (and raw materials). And > scientists The ship would be a complete society in an of itself, an O'Neil habitat with propulsion and a vast inventory of extra raw materials (which would clad the structure and serve as additional shielding until needed. > to understand the tech sent from Earth and > universities to train future generations. > The ship is going interstellar, so there will be > years of delay in communication. I expected the communication delay to come up. If the trip takes a long time compared to the communication delay, then it doesn't matter. The delay in receipt of new tech breakthroughs from earth would be at most a couple of years, and the research focus aboard ship might well keep them ahead of their earthbound counterparts. >> I mention this because the old notion about the futility of setting >> out at all, because someone will inevitably be there to greet you when >> you arrive,...has always been bothersome to me. the self-fulfilling >> self-defeating character of it. >> > Unfortunately the universe doesn't care about our feelings. Just as it doesn't care about the ungrounded opinions of those -- present company excluded -- who say, "It'll never work." Best, Jeff Davis "Everything's hard till you know how to do it." Ray Charles From spike66 at att.net Fri Oct 19 18:04:54 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 11:04:54 -0700 Subject: [ExI] due diligence Message-ID: <020001cdae24$3e7ce2c0$bb76a840$@att.net> Data hipsters, do offer me please a suggestion or two. I have a friend who has money, doesn't use the internet a lot, almost never for anything other than business-related stuff. Recently he read somewhere an inspiring something (details intentionally omitted) that causes him to want to do a charitable act for the author, enough to make a real difference in this person's life. The only relevant details: this benefactor is happily married for a long time, fifty-something, American, several children, upstanding sort, honest, kind and good, etc. The recipient is twenty-something, single, have no idea what she looks like and he doesn't care, completely irrelevant for what he wants to offer. The benefactor wants exactly NOTHING in return, nothing. In any case, this is a situation in desperate need of some basic due diligence, the same way one would investigate before making any investment. The recipient is in Britain somewhere. Do you lads have anything analogous to our Spokeo for instance, something to do some top-level spot checking? It might be as simple as reverse-lookup of an address, to see that Jane Ayre (pseudonym) lives there, rather than Mohammad M. Mohammad from Nigeria, just for starters. Any other ideas on how to spot check an inspiring internet story for truthiness? I had to advise my friend that in its current form the plan is 18 molar hydro-bad-idea-chloride, an unstable chemical that can decompose rapidly and spontaneously when mixed with reality, leaving behind nothing but pure bad-idea, in a highly toxic environment. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Fri Oct 19 18:28:53 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 11:28:53 -0700 Subject: [ExI] due diligence In-Reply-To: <020001cdae24$3e7ce2c0$bb76a840$@att.net> References: <020001cdae24$3e7ce2c0$bb76a840$@att.net> Message-ID: Google the lady's name, or choice phrases from it. Check Snopes.com, of course, but that doesn't get everything. And there are reverse lookup sites that give you lots of info for money, but their free preview can be used to confirm that a person with that name probably lives or recently lived in that area. They tend to be focused in the US, but I suspect that "[name] Britain" might find some such services for the UK, along with other potentially corroborating hits - assuming she does exist and is there. (Conversely, a lack of relevant hits would suggest she is not there.) On Fri, Oct 19, 2012 at 11:04 AM, spike wrote: > Data hipsters, do offer me please a suggestion or two. I have a friend who > has money, doesn?t use the internet a lot, almost never for anything other > than business-related stuff. Recently he read somewhere an inspiring > something (details intentionally omitted) that causes him to want to do a > charitable act for the author, enough to make a real difference in this > person?s life. The only relevant details: this benefactor is happily > married for a long time, fifty-something, American, several children, > upstanding sort, honest, kind and good, etc. The recipient is > twenty-something, single, have no idea what she looks like and he doesn?t > care, completely irrelevant for what he wants to offer. The benefactor > wants exactly NOTHING in return, nothing. > > > > In any case, this is a situation in desperate need of some basic due > diligence, the same way one would investigate before making any investment. > The recipient is in Britain somewhere. Do you lads have anything analogous > to our Spokeo for instance, something to do some top-level spot checking? > It might be as simple as reverse-lookup of an address, to see that Jane Ayre > (pseudonym) lives there, rather than Mohammad M. Mohammad from Nigeria, just > for starters. Any other ideas on how to spot check an inspiring internet > story for truthiness? > > > > I had to advise my friend that in its current form the plan is 18 molar > hydro-bad-idea-chloride, an unstable chemical that can decompose rapidly and > spontaneously when mixed with reality, leaving behind nothing but pure > bad-idea, in a highly toxic environment. > > > > spike > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Fri Oct 19 18:32:36 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 20:32:36 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> Message-ID: On 19 October 2012 20:16, Jeff Davis wrote: > I don't see that as a problem. I believe that any number of millions > would love to get the hell off this moron planet, where they are > treated like cattle by the Mafia sovereignties and their dictatorial > ruling elites. A poll needs to be taken to answer the question. > I am not sure about all that, but certainly a way to promote lengthy, awake space travel is to present it as seasteading. If an island is fine, a floating island is also fine, why a large enough, self-sufficient spaceship wouldn't? And your sect/culture/civilisation/clan of Randians has indeed a long-term grand project for their descendant and group survival. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Fri Oct 19 18:36:54 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 20:36:54 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Top 10 Stories Under-Reported by the Mainstream Media In-Reply-To: <50819696.1070300@aleph.se> References: <1350656195.47083.YahooMailClassic@web114403.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> <50819696.1070300@aleph.se> Message-ID: On 19 October 2012 20:06, Anders Sandberg wrote: > Since the number of stages of media transmission is increasing and > filtering is becoming ever easier (and necessary, because of the vast > amount of media), this is deeply worrysome and quite likely a danger for > the the epistemic future of our civilisation. But it is not censorship. > Yet, Ezra Pound used to say ""Free speech, without radio free speech is zero!" I suspect that background noise and white signal would also have been considered as part of the equation. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From charlie.stross at gmail.com Fri Oct 19 18:46:54 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 19:46:54 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> Message-ID: <157EFBBE-AB7A-4D13-A114-BB7177BBFD72@gmail.com> On 19 Oct 2012, at 19:32, Stefano Vaj wrote: > On 19 October 2012 20:16, Jeff Davis wrote: > I don't see that as a problem. I believe that any number of millions > would love to get the hell off this moron planet, where they are > treated like cattle by the Mafia sovereignties and their dictatorial > ruling elites. A poll needs to be taken to answer the question. > > I am not sure about all that, but certainly a way to promote lengthy, awake space travel is to present it as seasteading. > > If an island is fine, a floating island is also fine, why a large enough, self-sufficient spaceship wouldn't? And your sect/culture/civilisation/clan of Randians has indeed a long-term grand project for their descendant and group survival. It'll last one generation before it turns into something else. The kids growing up there will almost certainly not think of their environment in the same way that their parents (who grew up in a radically different environment) do. Moreover, there's no way to leave, so they'll have to fix the situation they find themselves in (for whatever value of "fix" they deem appropriate). Finally, in a spacegoing colony or generation ship, social conformity and compliance will be a survival asset. So I'd expect such a colony mission to make the Netherlands or Sweden look like an anarchist utopia populated by wild individualists. -- Charlie From jrd1415 at gmail.com Fri Oct 19 18:51:12 2012 From: jrd1415 at gmail.com (Jeff Davis) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 12:51:12 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 18, 2012 at 4:44 AM, BillK wrote: > On Thu, Oct 18, 2012 at 6:33 AM, Jeff Davis wrote: >> First gen ships set out. Gonna be a bunch of people, and it's gonna be >> a long trip, so there'll be lots of supplies, and a very big ship. >> Perhaps hundreds of miles long and tens of miles wide. Fully shielded >> and with sufficient energy stores and the necessarily proportionate >> supply of reaction mass. For both acceleration and braking, of >> course.. Big. Very big. >> >> If most everyone cycles into and out of suspension, and everything is >> destination focused, you reduce the need for supplies and the ship can >> be smaller. But if the awake population is large and actively living >> their lives aboard ship, then you have a really large ship. >> > > > Large interstellar ships the size of cities which take many > generations to arrive at the nearest star are one often considered > option. The main problem I see is persuading that many people that > that is the way they want themselves and their descendents to live. I don't see that as a problem. I believe that any number of millions would love to get the hell off this moron planet, where they are treated like cattle by the Mafia sovereignties and their dictatorial ruling elites. A poll needs to be taken to answer the question. > This option is usually suggested as a desperation measure in the face > of the imminent destruction of Earth. So it is not really a method of > choice. Most people would rather wait for the new Chinese high-speed > train instead. > > >> Now, to my point. Later generations of ships might not get there first. >> >> Contact with the home planet would be continuous, no? Advances in >> ship design originating on the home planet would be communicated to >> the ship, no?, and the ship upgraded, no? Also, aboard ship there >> would be particular interest in such performance upgrades, and so >> research along those lines would be a priority. Consequently, the >> shipboard culture would quite possibly be in the vanguard of starship >> technology. >> > > You need a really huge ship Bingo! Really big. But that's no problem. The Asteroid belt, Kuiper Belt, and Oort cloud have all the raw materials necessary. > that contains science labs and > manufacturing facilities (and raw materials). And > scientists The ship would be a complete society in an of itself, an O'Neil habitat with propulsion and a vast inventory of extra raw materials (which would clad the structure and serve as additional shielding until needed. > to understand the tech sent from Earth and > universities to train future generations. > The ship is going interstellar, so there will be > years of delay in communication. I expected the communication delay to come up. If the trip takes a long time compared to the communication delay, then it doesn't matter. The delay in receipt of new tech breakthroughs from earth would be at most a couple of years, and the research focus aboard ship might well keep them ahead of their earthbound counterparts. >> I mention this because the old notion about the futility of setting >> out at all, because someone will inevitably be there to greet you when >> you arrive,...has always been bothersome to me. the self-fulfilling >> self-defeating character of it. >> > Unfortunately the universe doesn't care about our feelings. Just as it doesn't care about the ungrounded opinions of those -- present company excluded -- who say, "It'll never work." Best, Jeff Davis "Everything's hard till you know how to do it." Ray Charles "Everything's hard till you know how to do it." Ray Charles From anders at aleph.se Fri Oct 19 21:27:38 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 14:27:38 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: <157EFBBE-AB7A-4D13-A114-BB7177BBFD72@gmail.com> References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> <157EFBBE-AB7A-4D13-A114-BB7177BBFD72@gmail.com> Message-ID: <5081C5CA.1060102@aleph.se> On 19/10/2012 11:46, Charlie Stross wrote: > So I'd expect such a colony mission to make the Netherlands or Sweden > look like an anarchist utopia populated by wild individualists. Of course, at least the Netherlands show that one can still be pretty individualistic along some dimensions while being cohesive among others. But it certainly helps if you are a rich and secure society. Generally, I agree that a small society in an unforgiving environment will likely tend to be cohesive and collectivist by necessity. If you want to build libertopia it better be big enough, or have a relatively easy frontier to expand into. So my prediction is that if seasteading ever happens it will be more like rural communes than Galt's Gulch. Until it becomes really easy, which would produce a brief period of wild west as the oceans get colonized fully, followed by consolidation and romantization of the free past. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From rtomek at ceti.pl Fri Oct 19 21:36:28 2012 From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola) Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2012 23:36:28 +0200 (CEST) Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Fri, 19 Oct 2012, ddraig wrote: > On 17 October 2012 20:02, BillK wrote: > > Using present rockets, about 50,000 to 100,000 years. > > So we need new rocket systems first. > > And unless we leap instantly to near lightspeed transport, the first > > generation ships will be muchly discouraged by the knowledge that > > their journey will be so long that they will almost certainly be > > overtaken by second and third generation transports. > > Isn't this a major aspect of The Forever War? > As far as I remember, the huge problem of people involved in the above mentioned story was that they _had_to_ return. Back to the Earth, back to the civilisation which had nothing to propose so had to reuse them over and over (in hope that the trouble with some guys not fitting in will get solved in a, well, natural way). Finally, after the peace, civilisation grew up so big there was no problem with creating planetary sized reservation for relatively few "500 years old retards". Now, I see it as a very positive sign that nobody here considers going back at all :-). Myself, I wouldn't like to go back. Regards, Tomasz Rola -- ** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature. ** ** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home ** ** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened... ** ** ** ** Tomasz Rola mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com ** From spike66 at att.net Sat Oct 20 17:24:59 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2012 10:24:59 -0700 Subject: [ExI] randomly generated math paper accepted for publication Message-ID: <035d01cdaee7$d514f010$7f3ed030$@att.net> Not only is this hilarious, it makes me feel so much better: Mathgen paper accepted! Posted on September 14, 2012 I?m pleased to announce that Mathgen has had its first randomly-generated paper accepted by a journal! _____ On August 3, 2012, a certain Professor Marcie Rathke of the University of Southern North Dakota at Hoople submitted a very interesting article to Advances in Pure Mathematics, one of the many fine journals put out by Scientific Research Publishing. (Your inbox and/or spam trap very likely contains useful information about their publications at this very moment!) This mathematical tour de force was entitled ?Independent, Negative, Canonically Turing Arrows of Equations and Problems in Applied Formal PDE?, and I quote here its intriguing abstract: Let ?=A. Is it possible to extend isomorphisms? We show that D? is stochastically orthogonal and trivially affine. In [10], the main result was the construction of p-Cardano, compactly Erd?s, Weyl functions. This could shed important light on a conjecture of Conway-d?Alembert. http://thatsmathematics.com/blog/archives/102 Here?s the paper: http://thatsmathematics.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/mathgen-1389529747.pdf So why does it make me feel better? On occasion I have struggled through some of the papers, or unsuccessfully attempted to comprehend, some of the material in the more arcane publications in mathematical theory, but have always come away dismayed and discouraged. It feels like a hundred lifetimes would be insufficient to understand the material there. It makes me feel dumber than a box or rocks. Now I know that even referees can be snowed by this, I realize that this practice could go undetected: a real human writes a reasonable abstract and the first page or two (which is usually about my endurance level in trying to comprehend the papers) then let MathSpew fill out the paper, which is then published in an attempt to not perish. In reality, the joke is on anyone who attempts to publish in this journal, paying the 500 dollar fee. If you look at the referee?s comments, it is not at all clear to me those were generated by an actual human either. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sat Oct 20 17:34:10 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2012 10:34:10 -0700 Subject: [ExI] evidence that coursera has a sense of humor: Message-ID: <037301cdaee9$1d8d1290$58a737b0$@att.net> Haaaahahahahahaaaa. {8^D Coursera offers free, online courses to people around the world, but if you live in Minnesota, company officials are urging you to log off or head for the border. The state's Office of Higher Education has informed the popular provider of massive open online courses, or MOOC's, that Coursera is unwelcome in the state because it never got permission to operate there. It's unclear how the law could be enforced when the content is freely available on the Web, but Coursera updated its Terms of Service to include the following caution: Notice for Minnesota Users: Coursera has been informed by the Minnesota Office of Higher Education that under Minnesota Statutes (136A.61 to 136A.71), a university cannot offer online courses to Minnesota residents unless the university has received authorization from the State of Minnesota to do so. If you are a resident of Minnesota, you agree that either (1) you will not take courses on Coursera, or (2) for each class that you take, the majority of work you do for the class will be done from outside the State of Minnesota. http://chronicle.com/blogs/wiredcampus/minnesota-gives-coursera-the-boot-cit ing-a-decades-old-law/40542 {8^D Heeeehahaaaahahaheeeeeheeheheheheheheheeee. OK so I have a weird sense of humor too. I found that notice by Coursera hilarious. {8-] spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Sat Oct 20 17:54:05 2012 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2012 19:54:05 +0200 Subject: [ExI] randomly generated math paper accepted for publication In-Reply-To: <035d01cdaee7$d514f010$7f3ed030$@att.net> References: <035d01cdaee7$d514f010$7f3ed030$@att.net> Message-ID: This is super cool! I have seen other examples of randomly generated crap published in "respectable" journals, I think one example had a certain notoriety a few years ago. Once in an AI lab we played with one of these automatic article generators, able to put together something that looks vaguely plausible at a first glance, using other writings of the same authors and a knowledge base. We thought of sending a particularly good example to a journal, I guess it would have been accepted. Does that mean that referees don't even read the papers that they should review? No, because there are two cases where they do read them very carefully: 1) when the paper is from a competitor whose prestige they want to destroy, 2) when they want to publish similar results first. We should never forget that scientists are people like everyone else. It does mean the the traditional peer-review process, with its ridiculous delays of months and even years, is broken beyond repair. On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 7:24 PM, spike wrote: > > > Not only is this hilarious, it makes me feel so much better: > > > > Mathgen paper accepted! > > Posted on September 14, 2012 > > I?m pleased to announce that Mathgen has had its first randomly-generated > paper accepted by a journal! > > ________________________________ > > On August 3, 2012, a certain Professor Marcie Rathke of the University of > Southern North Dakota at Hoople submitted a very interesting article to > Advances in Pure Mathematics, one of the many fine journals put out by > Scientific Research Publishing. (Your inbox and/or spam trap very likely > contains useful information about their publications at this very moment!) > This mathematical tour de force was entitled ?Independent, Negative, > Canonically Turing Arrows of Equations and Problems in Applied Formal > PDE?, > and I quote here its intriguing abstract: > > Let ?=A. Is it possible to extend isomorphisms? We show that D? is > stochastically orthogonal and trivially affine. In [10], the main result > was > the construction of p-Cardano, compactly Erd?s, Weyl functions. This could > shed important light on a conjecture of Conway-d?Alembert. > > > > > > http://thatsmathematics.com/blog/archives/102 > > > > > > Here?s the paper: > > > > > http://thatsmathematics.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/mathgen-1389529747.pdf > > > > > > So why does it make me feel better? On occasion I have struggled through > some of the papers, or unsuccessfully attempted to comprehend, some of the > material in the more arcane publications in mathematical theory, but have > always come away dismayed and discouraged. It feels like a hundred > lifetimes would be insufficient to understand the material there. It > makes > me feel dumber than a box or rocks. > > > > Now I know that even referees can be snowed by this, I realize that this > practice could go undetected: a real human writes a reasonable abstract > and > the first page or two (which is usually about my endurance level in trying > to comprehend the papers) then let MathSpew fill out the paper, which is > then published in an attempt to not perish. > > > > In reality, the joke is on anyone who attempts to publish in this journal, > paying the 500 dollar fee. If you look at the referee?s comments, it is > not > at all clear to me those were generated by an actual human either. > > > > spike > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From atymes at gmail.com Sat Oct 20 18:22:42 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2012 11:22:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] randomly generated math paper accepted for publication In-Reply-To: <035d01cdaee7$d514f010$7f3ed030$@att.net> References: <035d01cdaee7$d514f010$7f3ed030$@att.net> Message-ID: There is something of a history of this. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17288-crap-paper-accepted-by-journal.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sokal_affair On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 10:24 AM, spike wrote: > > > Not only is this hilarious, it makes me feel so much better: > > > > Mathgen paper accepted! > > Posted on September 14, 2012 > > I?m pleased to announce that Mathgen has had its first randomly-generated > paper accepted by a journal! > > ________________________________ > > On August 3, 2012, a certain Professor Marcie Rathke of the University of > Southern North Dakota at Hoople submitted a very interesting article to > Advances in Pure Mathematics, one of the many fine journals put out by > Scientific Research Publishing. (Your inbox and/or spam trap very likely > contains useful information about their publications at this very moment!) > This mathematical tour de force was entitled ?Independent, Negative, > Canonically Turing Arrows of Equations and Problems in Applied Formal PDE?, > and I quote here its intriguing abstract: > > Let ?=A. Is it possible to extend isomorphisms? We show that D? is > stochastically orthogonal and trivially affine. In [10], the main result was > the construction of p-Cardano, compactly Erd?s, Weyl functions. This could > shed important light on a conjecture of Conway-d?Alembert. > > > > > > http://thatsmathematics.com/blog/archives/102 > > > > > > Here?s the paper: > > > > http://thatsmathematics.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/mathgen-1389529747.pdf > > > > > > So why does it make me feel better? On occasion I have struggled through > some of the papers, or unsuccessfully attempted to comprehend, some of the > material in the more arcane publications in mathematical theory, but have > always come away dismayed and discouraged. It feels like a hundred > lifetimes would be insufficient to understand the material there. It makes > me feel dumber than a box or rocks. > > > > Now I know that even referees can be snowed by this, I realize that this > practice could go undetected: a real human writes a reasonable abstract and > the first page or two (which is usually about my endurance level in trying > to comprehend the papers) then let MathSpew fill out the paper, which is > then published in an attempt to not perish. > > > > In reality, the joke is on anyone who attempts to publish in this journal, > paying the 500 dollar fee. If you look at the referee?s comments, it is not > at all clear to me those were generated by an actual human either. > > > > spike > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From atymes at gmail.com Sat Oct 20 18:23:20 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2012 11:23:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] evidence that coursera has a sense of humor: In-Reply-To: <037301cdaee9$1d8d1290$58a737b0$@att.net> References: <037301cdaee9$1d8d1290$58a737b0$@att.net> Message-ID: Minnesota's response: http://arstechnica.com/business/2012/10/no-minnesota-did-not-kick-coursera-out-of-the-state/ On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 10:34 AM, spike wrote: > > > > > Haaaahahahahahaaaa? {8^D > > > > > > Coursera offers free, online courses to people around the world, but if you > live in Minnesota, company officials are urging you to log off or head for > the border. > > The state?s Office of Higher Education has informed the popular provider of > massive open online courses, or MOOC?s, that Coursera is unwelcome in the > state because it never got permission to operate there. It?s unclear how the > law could be enforced when the content is freely available on the Web, but > Coursera updated its Terms of Service to include the following caution: > > Notice for Minnesota Users: > > Coursera has been informed by the Minnesota Office of Higher Education that > under Minnesota Statutes (136A.61 to 136A.71), a university cannot offer > online courses to Minnesota residents unless the university has received > authorization from the State of Minnesota to do so. If you are a resident of > Minnesota, you agree that either (1) you will not take courses on Coursera, > or (2) for each class that you take, the majority of work you do for the > class will be done from outside the State of Minnesota. > > > > http://chronicle.com/blogs/wiredcampus/minnesota-gives-coursera-the-boot-citing-a-decades-old-law/40542 > > > > {8^D > > > > Heeeehahaaaahahaheeeeeheeheheheheheheheeee? OK so I have a weird sense of > humor too. I found that notice by Coursera hilarious. {8-] > > > > spike > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From giulio at gmail.com Sat Oct 20 18:06:02 2012 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2012 20:06:02 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: <5081C5CA.1060102@aleph.se> References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> <157EFBBE-AB7A-4D13-A114-BB7177BBFD72@gmail.com> <5081C5CA.1060102@aleph.se> Message-ID: I also agree that a small society in an unforgiving environment will likely tend to be cohesive and collectivist by necessity. But there are two different types of collectivist societies: 1) societies that protect the majority of citizens from probable actual harm resulting from actions by individuals or minorities; 2) societies where a "moral majority" claims the right to tell everyone which hand they must use to wipe their own butt and punish those who don't comply. I accept 1) as a necessary evil but I will never accept 2). Unfortunately I have the feeling that our societies often forget 1) but practice 2 more and more, in a gradual process that goes almost unnoticed. On Fri, Oct 19, 2012 at 11:27 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > On 19/10/2012 11:46, Charlie Stross wrote: >> >> So I'd expect such a colony mission to make the Netherlands or Sweden look >> like an anarchist utopia populated by wild individualists. > > > Of course, at least the Netherlands show that one can still be pretty > individualistic along some dimensions while being cohesive among others. But > it certainly helps if you are a rich and secure society. > > Generally, I agree that a small society in an unforgiving environment will > likely tend to be cohesive and collectivist by necessity. If you want to > build libertopia it better be big enough, or have a relatively easy frontier > to expand into. > > So my prediction is that if seasteading ever happens it will be more like > rural communes than Galt's Gulch. Until it becomes really easy, which would > produce a brief period of wild west as the oceans get colonized fully, > followed by consolidation and romantization of the free past. > > > > -- > Anders Sandberg, > Future of Humanity Institute > Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From spike66 at att.net Sat Oct 20 18:33:21 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2012 11:33:21 -0700 Subject: [ExI] randomly generated math paper accepted for publication In-Reply-To: References: <035d01cdaee7$d514f010$7f3ed030$@att.net> Message-ID: <038b01cdaef1$621cfa30$2656ee90$@att.net> >... It does mean the traditional peer-review process, with its ridiculous delays of months and even years, is broken beyond repair. Giulio Thanks Giulio, your commentary made my day. You bring in another element: not just laziness or incompetence, but possible actual corruption in the process. I can imagine far too easily a referee-bot, set up to make vague and gentle criticisms, randomly chosen from a table in Excel or database, auto-replying to paper authors, while the actual human running the "scientific journal" vacations for a month, collecting the publication fees from the authors for the privilege of appearing in a journal no one actually reads. That system is not only broken beyond repair, it isn't clear exactly where all the fractures are located. {8-] spike -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Giulio Prisco Sent: Saturday, October 20, 2012 10:54 AM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] randomly generated math paper accepted for publication This is super cool! I have seen other examples of randomly generated crap published in "respectable" journals, I think one example had a certain notoriety a few years ago. Once in an AI lab we played with one of these automatic article generators, able to put together something that looks vaguely plausible at a first glance, using other writings of the same authors and a knowledge base. We thought of sending a particularly good example to a journal, I guess it would have been accepted. Does that mean that referees don't even read the papers that they should review? No, because there are two cases where they do read them very carefully: 1) when the paper is from a competitor whose prestige they want to destroy, 2) when they want to publish similar results first. We should never forget that scientists are people like everyone else. It does mean the the traditional peer-review process, with its ridiculous delays of months and even years, is broken beyond repair. On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 7:24 PM, spike wrote: > > > Not only is this hilarious, it makes me feel so much better: > > > > Mathgen paper accepted! > > Posted on September 14, 2012 > > I?m pleased to announce that Mathgen has had its first > randomly-generated paper accepted by a journal! > > ________________________________ > > On August 3, 2012, a certain Professor Marcie Rathke of the University > of Southern North Dakota at Hoople submitted a very interesting > article to Advances in Pure Mathematics, one of the many fine journals > put out by Scientific Research Publishing. (Your inbox and/or spam > trap very likely contains useful information about their publications > at this very moment!) This mathematical tour de force was entitled > ?Independent, Negative, Canonically Turing Arrows of Equations and > Problems in Applied Formal PDE?, and I quote here its intriguing > abstract: > > Let ?=A. Is it possible to extend isomorphisms? We show that D? is > stochastically orthogonal and trivially affine. In [10], the main > result was the construction of p-Cardano, compactly Erd?s, Weyl > functions. This could shed important light on a conjecture of > Conway-d?Alembert. > > > > > > http://thatsmathematics.com/blog/archives/102 > > > > > > Here?s the paper: > > > > > http://thatsmathematics.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/mathgen-13 > 89529747.pdf > > > > > > So why does it make me feel better? On occasion I have struggled > through some of the papers, or unsuccessfully attempted to comprehend, > some of the material in the more arcane publications in mathematical > theory, but have always come away dismayed and discouraged. It feels > like a hundred lifetimes would be insufficient to understand the > material there. It makes me feel dumber than a box or rocks. > > > > Now I know that even referees can be snowed by this, I realize that > this practice could go undetected: a real human writes a reasonable > abstract and the first page or two (which is usually about my > endurance level in trying to comprehend the papers) then let MathSpew > fill out the paper, which is then published in an attempt to not > perish. > > > > In reality, the joke is on anyone who attempts to publish in this > journal, paying the 500 dollar fee. If you look at the referee?s > comments, it is not at all clear to me those were generated by an > actual human either. > > > > spike > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From atymes at gmail.com Sat Oct 20 18:56:57 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2012 11:56:57 -0700 Subject: [ExI] randomly generated math paper accepted for publication In-Reply-To: <038b01cdaef1$621cfa30$2656ee90$@att.net> References: <035d01cdaee7$d514f010$7f3ed030$@att.net> <038b01cdaef1$621cfa30$2656ee90$@att.net> Message-ID: Think of it as a lesser form of the Turing Test, but instead of detecting intelligence by the paper-writing AI, it's useful for detecting lack of intelligence by the journal's editors. On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 11:33 AM, spike wrote: > >>... It does mean the traditional peer-review process, with its ridiculous delays of months and even years, is broken beyond repair. Giulio > > > Thanks Giulio, your commentary made my day. You bring in another element: not just laziness or incompetence, but possible actual corruption in the process. I can imagine far too easily a referee-bot, set up to make vague and gentle criticisms, randomly chosen from a table in Excel or database, auto-replying to paper authors, while the actual human running the "scientific journal" vacations for a month, collecting the publication fees from the authors for the privilege of appearing in a journal no one actually reads. > > That system is not only broken beyond repair, it isn't clear exactly where all the fractures are located. > > {8-] > > spike > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Giulio Prisco > Sent: Saturday, October 20, 2012 10:54 AM > To: ExI chat list > Subject: Re: [ExI] randomly generated math paper accepted for publication > > This is super cool! I have seen other examples of randomly generated crap published in "respectable" journals, I think one example had a certain notoriety a few years ago. > > Once in an AI lab we played with one of these automatic article generators, able to put together something that looks vaguely plausible at a first glance, using other writings of the same authors and a knowledge base. We thought of sending a particularly good example to a journal, I guess it would have been accepted. > > Does that mean that referees don't even read the papers that they should review? No, because there are two cases where they do read them very carefully: 1) when the paper is from a competitor whose prestige they want to destroy, 2) when they want to publish similar results first. We should never forget that scientists are people like everyone else. > > It does mean the the traditional peer-review process, with its ridiculous delays of months and even years, is broken beyond repair. > > On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 7:24 PM, spike wrote: >> >> >> Not only is this hilarious, it makes me feel so much better: >> >> >> >> Mathgen paper accepted! >> >> Posted on September 14, 2012 >> >> I?m pleased to announce that Mathgen has had its first >> randomly-generated paper accepted by a journal! >> >> ________________________________ >> >> On August 3, 2012, a certain Professor Marcie Rathke of the University >> of Southern North Dakota at Hoople submitted a very interesting >> article to Advances in Pure Mathematics, one of the many fine journals >> put out by Scientific Research Publishing. (Your inbox and/or spam >> trap very likely contains useful information about their publications >> at this very moment!) This mathematical tour de force was entitled >> ?Independent, Negative, Canonically Turing Arrows of Equations and >> Problems in Applied Formal PDE?, and I quote here its intriguing >> abstract: >> >> Let ?=A. Is it possible to extend isomorphisms? We show that D? is >> stochastically orthogonal and trivially affine. In [10], the main >> result was the construction of p-Cardano, compactly Erd?s, Weyl >> functions. This could shed important light on a conjecture of >> Conway-d?Alembert. >> >> >> >> >> >> http://thatsmathematics.com/blog/archives/102 >> >> >> >> >> >> Here?s the paper: >> >> >> >> >> http://thatsmathematics.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/mathgen-13 >> 89529747.pdf >> >> >> >> >> >> So why does it make me feel better? On occasion I have struggled >> through some of the papers, or unsuccessfully attempted to comprehend, >> some of the material in the more arcane publications in mathematical >> theory, but have always come away dismayed and discouraged. It feels >> like a hundred lifetimes would be insufficient to understand the >> material there. It makes me feel dumber than a box or rocks. >> >> >> >> Now I know that even referees can be snowed by this, I realize that >> this practice could go undetected: a real human writes a reasonable >> abstract and the first page or two (which is usually about my >> endurance level in trying to comprehend the papers) then let MathSpew >> fill out the paper, which is then published in an attempt to not >> perish. >> >> >> >> In reality, the joke is on anyone who attempts to publish in this >> journal, paying the 500 dollar fee. If you look at the referee?s >> comments, it is not at all clear to me those were generated by an >> actual human either. >> >> >> >> spike >> >> >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From pharos at gmail.com Sat Oct 20 20:14:49 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2012 21:14:49 +0100 Subject: [ExI] randomly generated math paper accepted for publication In-Reply-To: References: <035d01cdaee7$d514f010$7f3ed030$@att.net> <038b01cdaef1$621cfa30$2656ee90$@att.net> Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 7:56 PM, Adrian Tymes wrote: > Think of it as a lesser form of the Turing Test, but instead of > detecting intelligence by the paper-writing AI, it's useful for > detecting lack of intelligence by the journal's editors. > On the contrary, it sounds exactly in line with modern business practice. Take 500 USD from each punter and produce rubbish. He must have graduated from business school. BillK From bbenzai at yahoo.com Sat Oct 20 20:13:01 2012 From: bbenzai at yahoo.com (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2012 13:13:01 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1350763981.92996.YahooMailClassic@web114411.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> Jeff Davis added: > The ship would be a complete society in an of itself, an > O'Neil > habitat with propulsion and a vast inventory of extra raw > materials > (which would clad the structure and serve as additional > shielding > until needed. etc. The thing that always makes me chuckle in these kind of conversations is the unstated assumption that the whole point of creating a vast infrastructure devoted to dragging a bunch of people out of a deep gravity well and allowing them to survive long-term (effectively indefinitely) in a space habitat is to travel to another deep gravity well and throw all the poor sophonts down the damn thing again. WHY?!?!?! You're in space, ffs! Halfway to anywhere, as someone (Larry Niven? Jerry Pournelle?) once put it. If I could get out of this deep gravity well and survive in space, I sure as hell wouldn't want to go anywhere near another deep gravity well. Those suckers are soooo expensive to escape from! Not to mention all the weather, earthquakes, volcanoes, floods, tsunamis, hurricanes, and other random and lethal acts of nature. Give me a large, hollowed-out, spinning asteroid with a robust ecosystem, radiation shielding and *an engine* (!) over a planet anyday. (Of course, I'd rather be an upload on a humungously massive spaceship the size of a sugarcube, but that's a different topic) Ben Zaiboc From atymes at gmail.com Sat Oct 20 20:59:11 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2012 13:59:11 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: <1350763981.92996.YahooMailClassic@web114411.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> References: <1350763981.92996.YahooMailClassic@web114411.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 1:13 PM, Ben Zaiboc wrote: > The thing that always makes me chuckle in these kind of conversations is the unstated assumption that the whole point of creating a vast infrastructure devoted to dragging a bunch of people out of a deep gravity well and allowing them to survive long-term (effectively indefinitely) in a space habitat is to travel to another deep gravity well and throw all the poor sophonts down the damn thing again. > > WHY?!?!?! I hear that. If the Earth got destroyed but we had time to cram people into livable spaceships? Why send them across interstellar space to where there *might* be a habitable planet, as opposed to building a space station in the habitable orbit of the solar system they're already in? Sure, there are challenges that would need to be solved to make a livable space station. They, and their risks, pale in comparison to what comes with crossing several light years, when we've yet to send any human being much beyond the dark side of the Moon - and then there's the whole "gambling what's left of the human race on finding a life-friendly planet" deal. At least with something we build, we can address the risks. From anders at aleph.se Sat Oct 20 21:37:52 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2012 14:37:52 -0700 Subject: [ExI] randomly generated math paper accepted for publication In-Reply-To: References: <035d01cdaee7$d514f010$7f3ed030$@att.net> Message-ID: <508319B0.2070408@aleph.se> On 20/10/2012 10:54, Giulio Prisco wrote: > It does mean the the traditional peer-review process, with its > ridiculous delays of months and even years, is broken beyond repair. > Amen to that. Although it is still better than nothing: it keeps out people who can't follow written instructions, which removes about half of the crazy population. In this particular case it was a pretty crappy journal, while Sokal caught a high status one. But I think tring this kind of thing is a public service for unmasking the sloppiest ones. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Sun Oct 21 00:04:33 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Sun, 21 Oct 2012 02:04:33 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: <157EFBBE-AB7A-4D13-A114-BB7177BBFD72@gmail.com> References: <201210162334.q9GNY0Dq011058@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <507E195C.1080000@aleph.se> <157EFBBE-AB7A-4D13-A114-BB7177BBFD72@gmail.com> Message-ID: On 19 October 2012 20:46, Charlie Stross wrote: > On 19 Oct 2012, at 19:32, Stefano Vaj wrote: > > If an island is fine, a floating island is also fine, why a large > enough, self-sufficient spaceship wouldn't? And your > sect/culture/civilisation/clan of Randians has indeed a long-term grand > project for their descendant and group survival. > > It'll last one generation before it turns into something else. > Hey, what else is new? :-) Insulated colonies are well known to drift away from the intention of their founders also on Earth. This is what make such experiments interesting. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sun Oct 21 02:19:41 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2012 19:19:41 -0700 Subject: [ExI] libertarian might win for a change Message-ID: <008f01cdaf32$87d792d0$9786b870$@att.net> Don't take this too seriously, but a glimmer of hope has emerged for the first time ever, that the libertarians might win the Whitehouse. No, I don't mean Gary Johnson might win: it is looking like one of those other two fellers will win, either Romney or Obama. But I just did the math and found something cool. The tossup states are now New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. In the even that Mr. Obama takes NH, OH and WI, and Mr. Romney takes IA, CO and NV, then the final score in electoral votes turns out to be a tie, 269 each. If that happens, the tiebreak for president goes to the house of representatives, which is controlled by Mr. Romney's party by a healthy margin. The vice president is decided by the senate, which is controlled by Mr. Obama's party, so they will likely elect Joe Biden. So if the above combination plays out, the US would split parties in the Whitehouse. The president has authority over what jobs the VP is assigned. Mr. Romney would likely assign Mr. Biden to go into his office and stay there for the next four years, just as Bush Senior did with his VP Dan Quayle. On the other hand, Mr. Biden, who has presidential aspirations, is then free to make any criticism, say whatever he wants about the president, utterly without negative consequences, since the president cannot fire him. We then face a rather unique election in 2016 where a sitting president is running against a sitting vice president. In any case, should all this happen, the president and vice president criticizing each other weakens the office of both, the power of the executive branch is diminished and the libertarians get what libertarians really want: not to be elected, but rather to decrease the concentration of power. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Sun Oct 21 10:03:05 2012 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Sun, 21 Oct 2012 12:03:05 +0200 Subject: [ExI] randomly generated math paper accepted for publication In-Reply-To: <038b01cdaef1$621cfa30$2656ee90$@att.net> References: <035d01cdaee7$d514f010$7f3ed030$@att.net> <038b01cdaef1$621cfa30$2656ee90$@att.net> Message-ID: I forgot to say that "Peer Review" is actually "Pee Review," pissing on other scientists and pissing on science itself. On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 8:33 PM, spike wrote: > >>... It does mean the traditional peer-review process, with its ridiculous delays of months and even years, is broken beyond repair. Giulio > > > Thanks Giulio, your commentary made my day. You bring in another element: not just laziness or incompetence, but possible actual corruption in the process. I can imagine far too easily a referee-bot, set up to make vague and gentle criticisms, randomly chosen from a table in Excel or database, auto-replying to paper authors, while the actual human running the "scientific journal" vacations for a month, collecting the publication fees from the authors for the privilege of appearing in a journal no one actually reads. > > That system is not only broken beyond repair, it isn't clear exactly where all the fractures are located. > > {8-] > > spike > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Giulio Prisco > Sent: Saturday, October 20, 2012 10:54 AM > To: ExI chat list > Subject: Re: [ExI] randomly generated math paper accepted for publication > > This is super cool! I have seen other examples of randomly generated crap published in "respectable" journals, I think one example had a certain notoriety a few years ago. > > Once in an AI lab we played with one of these automatic article generators, able to put together something that looks vaguely plausible at a first glance, using other writings of the same authors and a knowledge base. We thought of sending a particularly good example to a journal, I guess it would have been accepted. > > Does that mean that referees don't even read the papers that they should review? No, because there are two cases where they do read them very carefully: 1) when the paper is from a competitor whose prestige they want to destroy, 2) when they want to publish similar results first. We should never forget that scientists are people like everyone else. > > It does mean the the traditional peer-review process, with its ridiculous delays of months and even years, is broken beyond repair. > > On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 7:24 PM, spike wrote: >> >> >> Not only is this hilarious, it makes me feel so much better: >> >> >> >> Mathgen paper accepted! >> >> Posted on September 14, 2012 >> >> I?m pleased to announce that Mathgen has had its first >> randomly-generated paper accepted by a journal! >> >> ________________________________ >> >> On August 3, 2012, a certain Professor Marcie Rathke of the University >> of Southern North Dakota at Hoople submitted a very interesting >> article to Advances in Pure Mathematics, one of the many fine journals >> put out by Scientific Research Publishing. (Your inbox and/or spam >> trap very likely contains useful information about their publications >> at this very moment!) This mathematical tour de force was entitled >> ?Independent, Negative, Canonically Turing Arrows of Equations and >> Problems in Applied Formal PDE?, and I quote here its intriguing >> abstract: >> >> Let ?=A. Is it possible to extend isomorphisms? We show that D? is >> stochastically orthogonal and trivially affine. In [10], the main >> result was the construction of p-Cardano, compactly Erd?s, Weyl >> functions. This could shed important light on a conjecture of >> Conway-d?Alembert. >> >> >> >> >> >> http://thatsmathematics.com/blog/archives/102 >> >> >> >> >> >> Here?s the paper: >> >> >> >> >> http://thatsmathematics.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/mathgen-13 >> 89529747.pdf >> >> >> >> >> >> So why does it make me feel better? On occasion I have struggled >> through some of the papers, or unsuccessfully attempted to comprehend, >> some of the material in the more arcane publications in mathematical >> theory, but have always come away dismayed and discouraged. It feels >> like a hundred lifetimes would be insufficient to understand the >> material there. It makes me feel dumber than a box or rocks. >> >> >> >> Now I know that even referees can be snowed by this, I realize that >> this practice could go undetected: a real human writes a reasonable >> abstract and the first page or two (which is usually about my >> endurance level in trying to comprehend the papers) then let MathSpew >> fill out the paper, which is then published in an attempt to not >> perish. >> >> >> >> In reality, the joke is on anyone who attempts to publish in this >> journal, paying the 500 dollar fee. If you look at the referee?s >> comments, it is not at all clear to me those were generated by an >> actual human either. >> >> >> >> spike >> >> >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From dsunley at gmail.com Mon Oct 22 05:17:21 2012 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Sun, 21 Oct 2012 23:17:21 -0600 Subject: [ExI] libertarian might win for a change In-Reply-To: <008f01cdaf32$87d792d0$9786b870$@att.net> References: <008f01cdaf32$87d792d0$9786b870$@att.net> Message-ID: As the saying goes: "From your lips to God's ears." On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 8:19 PM, spike wrote: > > > Don?t take this too seriously, but a glimmer of hope has emerged for the > first time ever, that the libertarians might win the Whitehouse. No, I > don?t mean Gary Johnson might win: it is looking like one of those other two > fellers will win, either Romney or Obama. But I just did the math and found > something cool. > > > > The tossup states are now New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and > Nevada. In the even that Mr. Obama takes NH, OH and WI, and Mr. Romney > takes IA, CO and NV, then the final score in electoral votes turns out to be > a tie, 269 each. If that happens, the tiebreak for president goes to the > house of representatives, which is controlled by Mr. Romney?s party by a > healthy margin. The vice president is decided by the senate, which is > controlled by Mr. Obama?s party, so they will likely elect Joe Biden. So if > the above combination plays out, the US would split parties in the > Whitehouse. > > > > The president has authority over what jobs the VP is assigned. Mr. Romney > would likely assign Mr. Biden to go into his office and stay there for the > next four years, just as Bush Senior did with his VP Dan Quayle. On the > other hand, Mr. Biden, who has presidential aspirations, is then free to > make any criticism, say whatever he wants about the president, utterly > without negative consequences, since the president cannot fire him. We then > face a rather unique election in 2016 where a sitting president is running > against a sitting vice president. > > > > In any case, should all this happen, the president and vice president > criticizing each other weakens the office of both, the power of the > executive branch is diminished and the libertarians get what libertarians > really want: not to be elected, but rather to decrease the concentration of > power. > > > > spike > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From painlord2k at libero.it Mon Oct 22 18:01:29 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2012 20:01:29 +0200 Subject: [ExI] libertarian might win for a change In-Reply-To: <008f01cdaf32$87d792d0$9786b870$@att.net> References: <008f01cdaf32$87d792d0$9786b870$@att.net> Message-ID: <508589F9.90201@libero.it> Il 21/10/2012 04:19, spike ha scritto: > The tossup states are now New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado > and Nevada. In the even that Mr. Obama takes NH, OH and WI, and Mr. > Romney takes IA, CO and NV, then the final score in electoral votes > turns out to be a tie, 269 each. If that happens, the tiebreak for > president goes to the house of representatives, which is controlled by > Mr. Romney?s party by a healthy margin. The vice president is decided > by the senate, which is controlled by Mr. Obama?s party, so they will > likely elect Joe Biden. So if the above combination plays out, the US > would split parties in the Whitehouse. IMO, someone (more than one) would be bought for some handsome price to change their vote from Romney to Obama and the reverse for the VP both at the Congress, at the Senate and between the delegates. How much would cost to buy the vote of a delegate to switch from Romney to Obama? At least a golden exile out of his state where people would wait him with soap and rope. In this case the power of the Executive branch would be diminished even more. They would wield the power without the legitimacy. Mirco From jrd1415 at gmail.com Mon Oct 22 18:42:52 2012 From: jrd1415 at gmail.com (Jeff Davis) Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2012 12:42:52 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Alpha Centauri In-Reply-To: <1350763981.92996.YahooMailClassic@web114411.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> References: <1350763981.92996.YahooMailClassic@web114411.mail.gq1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 2:13 PM, Ben Zaiboc wrote: > The thing that always makes me chuckle in these kind of conversations is the unstated assumption that the whole point of creating a vast infrastructure devoted to dragging a bunch of people out of a deep gravity well and allowing them to survive long-term (effectively indefinitely) in a space habitat is to travel to another deep gravity well and throw all the poor sophonts down the damn thing again. > > WHY?!?!?! I agree a hundred percent. Escape from the gravity well will initiate a whole new space-based culture. Then, a couple of generations later, when the advantages of life outside the gravity well become clear -- freedom from sovereign "capture" prominent among them -- the notion of life as inherently Earthbound will fade. The idea of going to the stars will remain, but with the solar system abuzz in its own expansionist moment, the character of that impulse will change because independent living in space will have become routine, while advanced automation in a micro-gravity environment will make large projects the norm. So finally, the trip to the next star will not be to the star itself, but rather to the vast source of easily-exploitable raw materials on the fringes of the (Centauri?) system. As David Lubkin described it: rock-to-rock out to the edge, jump the gap,... and you're there. Best, Jeff Davis "Everything's hard till you know how to do it." Ray Charles From spike66 at att.net Mon Oct 22 19:36:09 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2012 12:36:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] libertarian might win for a change In-Reply-To: <508589F9.90201@libero.it> References: <008f01cdaf32$87d792d0$9786b870$@att.net> <508589F9.90201@libero.it> Message-ID: <024c01cdb08c$7cfc9350$76f5b9f0$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Mirco Romanato Subject: Re: [ExI] libertarian might win for a change Il 21/10/2012 04:19, spike ha scritto: >>... The tossup states are now New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, > Colorado and Nevada.... So if the above combination plays out, the US > would split parties in the Whitehouse. >...IMO, someone (more than one) would be bought for some handsome price to change their vote from Romney to Obama and the reverse for the VP both at the Congress, at the Senate and between the delegates...Mirco _______________________________________________ You make an excellent point Mirco, but missed something important. It occurred to me as well that in the event of a 269-269 tie, those electoral votes are worth a cool fortune. But the part you missed is that selling a vote in this way is apparently legal. There is no law (that I know of) that states that the electoral college members are not allowed to switch their vote, even if overtly for profit. Secondly, the amount such a vote would bring, especially if kept secrtet, is sufficient to buy one's own island and along with it, sufficient naval defenses to survive and protect trade resulting from the pile of gold the electoral college vote switcher would own. For the record, I don't believe this will play out. The final debate is tonight, after which I will have a better idea, but right now I suspect that feller from Massachusetts (don't recall the name) will likely win with a comfortable margin over the feller from Chicago (don't recall the name.) I do take a risk with that comment, for I am told that using the term "Chicago" in any context is now considered racist, a recent addition to a long and growing list with new words being added every day. In any case, I fear that Johnson has few prospects against these two. spike From painlord2k at libero.it Mon Oct 22 21:55:30 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2012 23:55:30 +0200 Subject: [ExI] libertarian might win for a change In-Reply-To: <024c01cdb08c$7cfc9350$76f5b9f0$@att.net> References: <008f01cdaf32$87d792d0$9786b870$@att.net> <508589F9.90201@libero.it> <024c01cdb08c$7cfc9350$76f5b9f0$@att.net> Message-ID: <5085C0D2.7030208@libero.it> Il 22/10/2012 21:36, spike ha scritto: > I do take a risk with that comment, for I am told that using the > term "Chicago" in any context is now considered racist, a recent > addition to a long and growing list with new words being added every > day. In any case, I fear that Johnson has few prospects against > these two. If you knew how Chicago is spelled in Italian and what the translation is you would accept the term "Chicago" can be very unpolite in some context. :-D Mirco From kellycoinguy at gmail.com Tue Oct 23 00:11:49 2012 From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson) Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2012 18:11:49 -0600 Subject: [ExI] libertarian might win for a change In-Reply-To: <008f01cdaf32$87d792d0$9786b870$@att.net> References: <008f01cdaf32$87d792d0$9786b870$@att.net> Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 8:19 PM, spike wrote: > The tossup states are now New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and > Nevada. In the even that Mr. Obama takes NH, OH and WI, and Mr. Romney > takes IA, CO and NV, then the final score in electoral votes turns out to be > a tie, 269 each. If that happens, the tiebreak for president goes to the > house of representatives, which is controlled by Mr. Romney?s party by a > healthy margin. The vice president is decided by the senate, which is > controlled by Mr. Obama?s party, so they will likely elect Joe Biden. So if > the above combination plays out, the US would split parties in the > Whitehouse. If that happened, I predict that Mr. Romney would keep his campaign promise of creating more jobs by immediately hiring a few thousand additional people to work for the secret service... looking after his back side... LOL -Kelly From lubkin at unreasonable.com Tue Oct 23 00:19:23 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2012 20:19:23 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Convergence Message-ID: <201210230133.q9N1XqJC016605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Jack Trout has written several interesting and useful books on marketing. I just read his 2000 book, Differentiate or Die. Most of it's still pertinent but I had to share this egg he laid (p. 182): >These predictions go way back. A July 18, 1993, cover story in Newsday >predicted that convergence will cause the eventual demise of videotapes, >video stores, newspapers, TV channels, telephone operators, Yellow >Pages, mail-order catalogs, college textbooks, library card catalogs, >beepers, VCRs, checkbooks, and cassette players. > >(We suspect you've noticed that all those things that were predicted to go >away are all still alive and well. So much for that prediction.) -- David. From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Tue Oct 23 06:34:59 2012 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2012 23:34:59 -0700 Subject: [ExI] new kurzweil book In-Reply-To: <003701cda432$b8a34400$29e9cc00$@att.net> References: <003701cda432$b8a34400$29e9cc00$@att.net> Message-ID: I wonder to what extent this book will take a beating from critics... John On Sat, Oct 6, 2012 at 7:23 PM, spike wrote: > OK, looks like the release date on Ray?s book has been delayed about a > month, to middle of November. I have been anticipating this one for some > time. Any Kurzweil hipsters here know if the 13 November date is holding? > Amara, how about having Ray post a hi and howdy on ExI please?**** > > ** ** > > spike**** > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Tue Oct 23 13:27:49 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2012 06:27:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Convergence In-Reply-To: <201210230133.q9N1XqJC016605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201210230133.q9N1XqJC016605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <50869B55.2060201@aleph.se> On 22/10/2012 17:19, David Lubkin wrote: >> (We suspect you've noticed that all those things that were predicted >> to go >> away are all still alive and well. So much for that prediction.) Beautiful. Simply beautiful. The big problem with predicting the future is that even when you get the analysis right, it might still take far longer than you expect for it to come true. I am reading a book on technology forecasting by Ayer from 1970 that among other things mentions the failure of "radar owens" (microwaves), suggesting they were 'a flash in the pan'. No, it just took 15 years longer (and the introduction of the rotary plate) for them to become ubiqitious. (Ayer also skewers using performance curve envelopes in a way that sounds perfectly applicable to Kurzweil critics today. All in all, a pretty good book - reading old futurology books is always helpful, since you can see what methods actually did make the right predictions and why. ) -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk Tue Oct 23 17:12:45 2012 From: nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk (Tom Nowell) Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2012 18:12:45 +0100 (BST) Subject: [ExI] libertarian might win for a change In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1351012365.57590.YahooMailClassic@web132104.mail.ird.yahoo.com> Spike, while your predictions are interesting it appears the bookmakers here in the UK say the money is betting a different way - William Hill are offering 2/5 on Barak Obama and 15/8 on Mitt Romney. Oh, what's that - even the betting industry has price comparison websites these days? http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner suggests most online bookies I can bet on are following suit. Yours providing friendly information from the prediction futures market, Tom -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Oct 23 16:50:31 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2012 17:50:31 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Vampires? Message-ID: Young Blood Reverses Signs of Aging in Old Mice Quote: In the experiment, Wagers and team surgically connected the circulatory systems of two mice, allowing older animals to be exposed to blood--and all the molecules and cells it carries-- from young animals. They found that the procedure made the blood-forming stem cells in older animals act young again; the overall number of these cells decreased, and the cells generated different varieties of blood cells in more appropriate ratios. "In aged animals, many of the changes we see normally that are associated with age were reversed," said Wagers. ------------- Looks like drinking the blood of young virgins is coming back in fashion. BillK From spike66 at att.net Tue Oct 23 18:12:09 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2012 11:12:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] libertarian might win for a change In-Reply-To: <1351012365.57590.YahooMailClassic@web132104.mail.ird.yahoo.com> References: <1351012365.57590.YahooMailClassic@web132104.mail.ird.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <042001cdb149$eb34afc0$c19e0f40$@att.net> >? On Behalf Of Tom Nowell Subject: Re: [ExI] libertarian might win for a change >?Spike, while your predictions are interesting it appears the bookmakers here in the UK say the money is betting a different way - William Hill are offering 2/5 on Barak Obama and 15/8 on Mitt Romney?Tom Ja, I see the Obama shares on InTrade going for about 58 cents this morning, about half a cent less than yesterday. I find this interesting because the existence of the various ideas futures games allows the patient investor to play the betting agencies against each other. For instance, if an odds-maker is offering Obama shares at 60 cents (or 2/5 if translated to odds) then you can buy shares on InTrade for 58 cents and sell them short at 60, insuring yourself of a 2 cent profit, irregardful. I notice the odds-makers are insuring themselves a profit by the spread you mentioned above 2/5 for the one guy and 15/8 for the other, when there is a near certainty one or the other will win this contest. I noticed way back during the play-money ideas futures days that in major elections (US presidential elections are a great example of this) the investors are likely to let their own preferences spill over into their investment decisions. Instead of betting on who they think will win, they tend to bet on who they want to win. Consequently the price of the two major candidates add up to slightly more than a dollar, when in reality they should add up to slightly less than a dollar, for both candidates cannot win, but they can both lose, in some far-fetched scenarios. So regardless of how this election turns out, there are opportunities to make a penny or two on each dollar invested. Cool! If you really want to make money, the trick is to be an odds-maker who really understands that she can make odds in such a way as to cover one?s own bets using InTrade and the related spinoffs as a hedge. If one mis-estimates the odds in such a way that may investors jump on the bet rather than balance them, one can cover one?s ass with InTrade and still make money either way. Last note: I thought of another way the libertarians might win: suppose we have not necessarily a 269-269 tie, but rather a cliff-hanger in two or even three different states (this could happen) similar to the Florida cliff-hanger in 2000, so we don?t know who won right away. Then suppose that all three recounts go the same way, especially if the initial leader is overtaken in recount after recount, and we once again call attention to, and ignore, the fact that we have no way to insure the veracity of an election by direct vote-to-voter traceability after the fact. We cannot audit elections, and we are intentionally keeping it that way. Then suppose further investigation reveals a number of voting irregularities (they always do.) And further suppose the number of irregularities could have tipped the election the other way (they sometimes do.) The winner would then be considered to have won an illegitimate victory, as Bush was widely thought in 2000. This very plausible outcome weakens the office of the presidency and in this way the libertarians win. Of course we get spent ever deeper into a hole anyway, so in that way we all lose, but the libertarian is at least the moral victor. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Tue Oct 23 18:39:21 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2012 11:39:21 -0700 Subject: [ExI] libertarian might win for a change In-Reply-To: <042001cdb149$eb34afc0$c19e0f40$@att.net> References: <1351012365.57590.YahooMailClassic@web132104.mail.ird.yahoo.com> <042001cdb149$eb34afc0$c19e0f40$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 23, 2012 at 11:12 AM, spike wrote: > This very plausible outcome weakens the office of the presidency and in > this way the libertarians win. Of course we get spent ever deeper into a > hole anyway, so in that way we all lose, but the libertarian is at least > the moral victor. > > And then the administration, desperate to shore up its mandate, pushes for ever more police state measures to keep would-be revolutionaries or reformers from capitalizing on this weakness. Moral victor, actual loser. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Tue Oct 23 17:53:05 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2012 10:53:05 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Vampires? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 23, 2012 at 9:50 AM, BillK wrote: > Looks like drinking the blood of young virgins is coming back in fashion. Injecting, and there wasn't anything about virgins, unless there's worry about STDs. From spike66 at att.net Tue Oct 23 19:04:26 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2012 12:04:26 -0700 Subject: [ExI] birds again Message-ID: <043401cdb151$38f6fb30$aae4f190$@att.net> Cool! A couple years ago I noticed a local raven was placing hickory nuts in driveways, apparently anticipating cars crushing them, an example of wildlife exploiting human technology. This example was to me more impressive than park bears figuring out how to open cars to get at the camper's coolers and backpacks, for they might be able to smell the food in that case, just let instinct do what instinct does until the car is open. In the case of the raven, he perched on top of a corner light-pole with a whole nut. When a garage door opened, she would take the nut, swoop down, place it behind the car and leave. If the car missed the nut, she would take it back up to her perch and wait. Just this morning, I notice there are three ravens out there with nuts, but only one appears to be perching. The other two are placing their lunch on the roadway and hopping over to the sidewalk to watch and wait. So now I want to get a video of the perching bird swooping and placing a nut as a garage door opens. One bird previously, now three, but it isn't clear that this is an example of a technology spreading in wildlife, or if it is still considered wildlife if it starts to use human technology. I noticed a few minutes ago while taking still photos that the birds don't show much fear of humans. They let me get within about four meters with no apparent concern. Cool, if I manage to capture a video of these guys doing this, it will make a fun YouTube video. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Oct 23 19:27:57 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2012 12:27:57 -0700 Subject: [ExI] how to weaponize office supplies Message-ID: <045101cdb154$82331f10$86995d30$@att.net> Business Week is so much more fun than it was in the old days: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-12/how-to-weaponize-office-supp lies-j-rg-sprave#r=lr-fst Joking aside, Business Week is perhaps the best place to find relevant news of all sorts, stuff that really matters. I have been a fan of them since a long time ago. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Tue Oct 23 19:29:17 2012 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2012 15:29:17 -0400 Subject: [ExI] birds again In-Reply-To: <043401cdb151$38f6fb30$aae4f190$@att.net> References: <043401cdb151$38f6fb30$aae4f190$@att.net> Message-ID: Wild crows inhabiting the city use it to their advantage - David Attenborough - BBC wildlife http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGPGknpq3e0 -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Oct 23 20:27:07 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2012 13:27:07 -0700 Subject: [ExI] libertarian might win for a change In-Reply-To: References: <1351012365.57590.YahooMailClassic@web132104.mail.ird.yahoo.com> <042001cdb149$eb34afc0$c19e0f40$@att.net> Message-ID: <047101cdb15c$c631c330$52954990$@att.net> >.On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes Subject: Re: [ExI] libertarian might win for a change On Tue, Oct 23, 2012 at 11:12 AM, spike wrote: >>.This very plausible outcome weakens the office of the presidency and in this way the libertarians win. Of course we get spent ever deeper into a hole anyway, so in that way we all lose, but the libertarian is at least the moral victor. >.And then the administration, desperate to shore up its mandate, pushes for ever more police state measures . Hey here's something cool. Colorado may have flipped toward that Massachusetts feller and New Hampshire appears to be siding with the guy from Chicago, which actually increases the likelihood of that wacky scenario I originally posted a few days ago. The five states which appear to be in play or tossups are now Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada. If current trends continue, Gov. Mass takes VA, IA and NV, with the incumbent taking WI and the key state of Ohio, without which we were assured the challenger could never win. Everything else stays as it is today. If that happens, we get a 269-269 split. With Colorado's current status, the tie isn't as far-fetched as it seemed last week: Romney gets the presidential slot and Joe Biden the VP, and we get 4 solid years of an executive branch as a house divided, with the winners being the libertarians. I would guess the chances of this tie game went from about 1% to about 5%. I am ignoring for the moment the fact that we suddenly have 538 individuals whose votes are worth a cool fortune. Gary Johnson had an extended interview last night on YouTube. He really sounded good methinks. Good chance he will lose to one of those other two guys, but he looked very good. Stay tuned! spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Tue Oct 23 20:50:35 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2012 22:50:35 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Vampires? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <5087031B.8040307@libero.it> Il 23/10/2012 19:53, Adrian Tymes ha scritto: > On Tue, Oct 23, 2012 at 9:50 AM, BillK wrote: >> Looks like drinking the blood of young virgins is coming back in fashion. > > Injecting, and there wasn't anything about virgins, unless there's worry > about STDs. I hope so, because the available stock of virgins is very thin. Mirco From sparge at gmail.com Tue Oct 23 21:04:31 2012 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2012 17:04:31 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Vampires? In-Reply-To: <5087031B.8040307@libero.it> References: <5087031B.8040307@libero.it> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 23, 2012 at 4:50 PM, Mirco Romanato wrote: > > I hope so, because the available stock of virgins is very thin. Not really, but they're young. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Tue Oct 23 21:42:49 2012 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2012 23:42:49 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Vampires? In-Reply-To: References: <5087031B.8040307@libero.it> Message-ID: <50870F59.3040702@libero.it> Il 23/10/2012 23:04, Dave Sill ha scritto: > On Tue, Oct 23, 2012 at 4:50 PM, Mirco Romanato > wrote: > I hope so, because the available stock of virgins is very thin. > Not really, but they're young. "Teacup humans" (cit.) Mirco From mlatorra at gmail.com Tue Oct 23 21:14:38 2012 From: mlatorra at gmail.com (Michael LaTorra) Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2012 15:14:38 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Convergence In-Reply-To: <50869B55.2060201@aleph.se> References: <201210230133.q9N1XqJC016605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <50869B55.2060201@aleph.se> Message-ID: Looking backward at yesterday's predictions for today is always interesting and often quite humbling. Anders, what is the title of the book by Ayers from 1970 that you referred to? On Tue, Oct 23, 2012 at 7:27 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > On 22/10/2012 17:19, David Lubkin wrote: > >> (We suspect you've noticed that all those things that were predicted to go >>> away are all still alive and well. So much for that prediction.) >>> >> > Beautiful. Simply beautiful. > > The big problem with predicting the future is that even when you get the > analysis right, it might still take far longer than you expect for it to > come true. I am reading a book on technology forecasting by Ayer from 1970 > that among other things mentions the failure of "radar owens" (microwaves), > suggesting they were 'a flash in the pan'. No, it just took 15 years longer > (and the introduction of the rotary plate) for them to become ubiqitious. > > (Ayer also skewers using performance curve envelopes in a way that sounds > perfectly applicable to Kurzweil critics today. All in all, a pretty good > book - reading old futurology books is always helpful, since you can see > what methods actually did make the right predictions and why. ) > > > > -- > Anders Sandberg, > Future of Humanity Institute > Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University > > > ______________________________**_________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/**mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-**chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Wed Oct 24 08:36:08 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2012 09:36:08 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Convergence In-Reply-To: References: <201210230133.q9N1XqJC016605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <50869B55.2060201@aleph.se> Message-ID: <5087A878.2080902@aleph.se> On 23/10/2012 22:14, Michael LaTorra wrote: > Looking backward at yesterday's predictions for today is always > interesting and often quite humbling. > > Anders, what is the title of the book by Ayers from 1970 that you > referred to? It is Technological Forecasting and Long-Range Planning by Robert U. Ayres, McGraw-Hill 1969 (I got the author's name almost right). Some fun quotes: "Several science popularizers of the "Gee Whiz" school have used the technique of "envelope curves" extrapolation in order to justify very radical predictions. One author remarks that the rates of increase of a number of performance variables apparently will go asymptotically to infinity before the year 2000." He then shows some curves suggesting speed of light vehicles by 1982, immortality by 2000 (Ayres correctly points out that there is little evidence of maximum lifespan ~115 going up), "by 1981 a single man will have available under his control the amount of energy equivalent to that generated by the entire sun" (this case is interesting: hydrogen bomb development sharply stopped in reality, thanks to better targeting systems, breaking the trend), "Using another trend curve (not shown), he suggests that by 1970 the number of "circuits" in a computer may be equal to the number of neurons in the human brain, i.e. about 4 billion. The practical significance of this comparison is not clear, of course, though the notion i undeniably provocative." This is from the chapter on failures of forecasting, the section on overcompensation. The short section just before that was about the opposite case, lack of imagination and/or nerve. The chapter on morphological analysis was interesting to me. It is a systematic way of going through alternative approaches to solving a problem (for example, how to build an electric motor), usually ending up with a combinatorial explosion of possibilities of course, but still a neat way of seeing what could be done differently. Especially if you use it to explore "nearby" different approaches (change one aspect of how things are done) it both seems helpful and gives an interesting way of quantifying the technological frontier. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Oxford Martin School Faculty of Philosophy Oxford University From pharos at gmail.com Wed Oct 24 10:04:31 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2012 11:04:31 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Convergence In-Reply-To: <5087A878.2080902@aleph.se> References: <201210230133.q9N1XqJC016605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <50869B55.2060201@aleph.se> <5087A878.2080902@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 24, 2012 at 9:36 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > The chapter on morphological analysis was interesting to me. It is a > systematic way of going through alternative approaches to solving a problem > (for example, how to build an electric motor), usually ending up with a > combinatorial explosion of possibilities of course, but still a neat way of > seeing what could be done differently. Especially if you use it to explore > "nearby" different approaches (change one aspect of how things are done) it > both seems helpful and gives an interesting way of quantifying the > technological frontier. > > What I see as the main problem in forecasting is forecasting society behaviour. Most forecasting takes one technical problem, like life extension, or starships, and runs with it. Trying to solve all the technical steps needed to achieve the objective and estimate the time it would take. All that is necessary, of course, but not sufficient. These projects are not living in isolation. The whole of society is growing and changing all around. A project might be made totally irrelevant by some other development. Teleports would kill all transport projects. If society uploads to computronium, starships are likely to be abandoned. And so on. On a lesser scale. simple resource shortage, like money, oil, food, could cause projects to be seriously delayed or cancelled. So, after the technical phase of planning, I would like to see a phase of 'reality' planning added on. People asking whether the project is politically feasible, supported by enough backing, not opposed by strong opponents, and likely to receive continued support and funding for the duration, taking into account possible wars, disasters, famines, etc. BillK From anders at aleph.se Wed Oct 24 10:29:00 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2012 11:29:00 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Convergence In-Reply-To: References: <201210230133.q9N1XqJC016605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <50869B55.2060201@aleph.se> <5087A878.2080902@aleph.se> Message-ID: <5087C2EC.9070705@aleph.se> On 24/10/2012 11:04, BillK wrote: > What I see as the main problem in forecasting is forecasting society > behaviour. The problem is that societal behaviour is not really forecastable. There are too few constraints outside slow demographic and institutional change, and the system changes in response to what you do. You certainly ought to consider social and cultural factors, but it is not anything that can be reliably forecast. My standard example is twitter. If a time traveller had explained the concept to me and my classmates back in 1991 I think we could have programmed the system without too much effort. However, we would not have been able to make any prediction about what it would be used for. In fact, it would likely have been fairly useless given the small number of Internet users back then. Twitter gets its functionality from what social functionality people invent, and for that you need 1) lots of users, 2) some experience with social media, and 3) creativity. So the current role of twitter was entirely impossible to forecast, although *maybe* we would have been able to figure out the above 1-3 requirements and hence deduce that if it ever got big it would get big in the future when there would be more internet users. But most likely we would have just concluded it was a useless system. > So, after the technical phase of planning, I would like to see a phase > of 'reality' planning added on. People asking whether the project is > politically feasible, supported by enough backing, not opposed by > strong opponents, and likely to receive continued support and funding > for the duration, taking into account possible wars, disasters, > famines, etc. And then what? Many very successful systems have been successful without such planning (consider the Internet, where again as in the twitter example, the actual role became known only as it was invented). And if you conclude that your system would be opposed by group X, is that an argument against the system or just an argument for a marketing campaign aimed at group X? In general humans are bad at long-term forecasting and planning. Having foresight is useful, but one should not overestimate our ability to be accurate. Adaptivity is better than overconfidence in any plan. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Oxford Martin School Faculty of Philosophy Oxford University From pharos at gmail.com Wed Oct 24 18:30:31 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2012 19:30:31 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Convergence In-Reply-To: <5087C2EC.9070705@aleph.se> References: <201210230133.q9N1XqJC016605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <50869B55.2060201@aleph.se> <5087A878.2080902@aleph.se> <5087C2EC.9070705@aleph.se> Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 24, 2012 at 11:29 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > The problem is that societal behaviour is not really forecastable. There are > too few constraints outside slow demographic and institutional change, and > the system changes in response to what you do. You certainly ought to > consider social and cultural factors, but it is not anything that can be > reliably forecast. > Hmmmn. I thought that general trends in society could be forecast. e.g. The War on Terror seems set for a while. Therefore it will continue to burn money that could be used on more useful projects. > My standard example is twitter. If a time traveller had explained the > concept to me and my classmates back in 1991 I think we could have > programmed the system without too much effort. However, we would not have > been able to make any prediction about what it would be used for. In fact, > it would likely have been fairly useless given the small number of Internet > users back then. Twitter gets its functionality from what social > functionality people invent, and for that you need 1) lots of users, 2) some > experience with social media, and 3) creativity. So the current role of > twitter was entirely impossible to forecast, although *maybe* we would have > been able to figure out the above 1-3 requirements and hence deduce that if > it ever got big it would get big in the future when there would be more > internet users. But most likely we would have just concluded it was a > useless system. > Well, some would say that twitter is indeed an eminently useless system. A time sink that stops productive work. If lots of shiny new toys are part of our future society, planning should take account of this and allow for a distracted population with little interest in big engineering projects. > Many very successful systems have been successful without > such planning (consider the Internet, where again as in the twitter example, > the actual role became known only as it was invented). And if you conclude > that your system would be opposed by group X, is that an argument against > the system or just an argument for a marketing campaign aimed at group X? > > In general humans are bad at long-term forecasting and planning. Having > foresight is useful, but one should not overestimate our ability to be > accurate. Adaptivity is better than overconfidence in any plan. > > Some projects will work against other projects. For example, starships is not the only project and may lose engineers and money to other projects. Then there are 'entertainment' projects which suck whole populations away into a non-productive euphoria. The worst case, of course, is humans moving to virtual reality where nothing gets done in the real world. I think all I'm really saying is that plans that say 'we could have AI by 2025' need to consider some of the external problems that might be encountered. Problems outside the project can easily double project estimates. BillK From spike66 at att.net Wed Oct 24 19:10:36 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2012 12:10:36 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Convergence In-Reply-To: References: <201210230133.q9N1XqJC016605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <50869B55.2060201@aleph.se> <5087A878.2080902@aleph.se> <5087C2EC.9070705@aleph.se> Message-ID: <00a801cdb21b$405006e0$c0f014a0$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of BillK >...Then there are 'entertainment' projects which suck whole populations away into a non-productive euphoria. The worst case, of course, is humans moving to virtual reality where nothing gets done in the real world...BillK _______________________________________________ BillK a number of years ago, I had a vision regarding a kind of convergence of getting things done in the real world and virtual reality. The number of developments since then encourage me to revisit that subject. Gregory Stock's book Metaman was a lot more recent then but not still warm off the presses, so I am guessing my musing were made in about 1999, after Dr. Stock's pitch at (I think) Extro4. My sketchy vision at the time included some sort of VR glasses which could make a kind of heads up display, along with audio such as we have today (and had then) in the form of cell phones. What has changed in the last 13 years is that these kinds of glasses have improved and everyone has cell phones. The notion is this. We all have special talents and abilities, we all own oddball items we keep around the house for no justifiable reason. We can imagine cases where we see something amiss, such as a broken sprinkler pipe, spewing water and making a mess. We can imagine a subset of people who work for some kind of loosely organized online clearing house of some sort, which knows one's home inventory and one's skills inventory. It would call out to everyone in the area, since the clearing house knows where every member is physically located, sends out a message, broken sprinkler pipe, who wants to fix? I carry sprinkler parts around in a toolbox in the back of my truck. No particular reason, I just do it. Doesn't weigh much, doesn't take much room back there. So, broken pipe down the street, I either get the call or call in, I go over, the clearing house tells me where the valve is located to shut off the water, I fix the pipe, few minutes job to prevent a huge mess, etc. We would evolve towards being a Borg, sort of. Last time we got on this topic, it devolved along the usual lines of privacy this and openness that, but this group of volunteers would be all openness fans, have security background checks to where you would even let a member be given a combination to enter your home when you are not there, fix something that could create a huge mess, such as a broken water supply to an indoor washing machine. Another example: I know how to fix cars to some extent. We could imagine getting a call to help a little old lady whose Detroit conked about two blocks from where you are now standing, and do you have time to go take care of that, etc. Might be just changing a tire, or a bad alternator has drained the battery, so just go swap out the battery, drive the car to your house and use that oddball item you have on hand: in my case an alternator with fresh brushes that will fit late 80s series Ford pickups. The point of all this: I can imagine a convergence of sorts between virtual realities and meat-world real realities. We could have virtual currencies that reward the good-deed doer, or for that matter, let people volunteer to help little old ladies for nothing. I would do it in most cases. On a completely legitimate non-illegitimate not-expecting-any-extramarital-anything basis of course. We could become a super-connected super-organism of sorts, communicating constantly and making so many cool things happen, legitimate things, and take care of our collective needs so effectively, legitimate needs, such as mechanical repairs and nothing biological you understand, unless the person has actual medical training and skills. If you review Dr. Stock's Metaman, marvel that this cool vision was written nearly 20 years ago. We can use the technologies that have been developed since then, and imagine converging a virtual reality game with real-world skills of various sorts, particularly the kind that do not get us in trouble with our spouses and so forth, completely legal, everything G rated, and converged into the actual game somehow. Suggestions welcome. spike From spike66 at att.net Wed Oct 24 23:16:44 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2012 16:16:44 -0700 Subject: [ExI] new app allows you to do everything except what really counts Message-ID: <00f101cdb23d$a2b7dc00$e8279400$@att.net> OK so now there is an app which lets you keep track of your Vote by Mail ballot, check the current score, along with these other features: Other features available on SCCVOTE include: . Voter Guide, with information on measures and candidates . View your sample ballot . Check if you are registered . Look up your districts and elected officials . Contact the Registrar of Voters with questions about elections and voting http://www.sccgov.org/sites/rov/Voter%20Education/Pages/Mobile-Apps.aspx So this app will let you verify the yakkity yak and check the bla bla, but what has become the ever more obvious common denominator is that none of these apps provide any means of verifying that your vote counted. That one is conspicuously missing, and apparently will ever be missing, which tells me as plainly as if they chisel it in stone that Americans do not and cannot know if we actually voted. We can believe we voted, sincerely believe if we wish, but we cannot verify. We are specifically forbidden from verifying our vote. Americans are asked to trust but not verify. We do not know who will win the election, and will not know after the fact. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Thu Oct 25 04:12:26 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2012 21:12:26 -0700 Subject: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans Message-ID: <014d01cdb266$f14b3aa0$d3e1afe0$@att.net> There is something I noticed watching InTrade bets for who will win the POTUS elections in a couple weeks. I need to do some math to convince myself that this is real, but what I noticed is that when the guy from Chicago has a bull run, it takes about an hour or more, but when he has a bear run, it can drop as far as it rose in a few minutes. Examples are seen below, with a rise of about a point in about an hour, between 644 and about 740, but the bears do their thing right at 921 for about 5 minutes on wacky high trading volume. This reminds me of stuff we used to talk about way back in the play-money Ideas Futures days, when we used to discuss ways to get the bulls to stampede, or the bears to run for the doors, and make "money" on it either way. That was cool because it was the experimentation days in program trading, and the discussion list was a prototype Reddit group. If anyone wishes to comment on the above chart, I am not interested in political commentary, but rather the InTrade angle, and if the notion of Ideas Futures in general shed any light here. I might be seeing ghosts in the data, or some completely random events triggering the well-known phenomenon of how program trading inherently creates positive feedback loops. I don't know why that in itself would cause asymmetrical changes in prices. The only thing I can think of is that this is somehow related to the fact that there are fewer short sellers than those who go long: in this sort of game, people would prefer to hold YES cards for their own guy than NOs for the other guy. But even then, that still doesn't explain it because the other guy's price chart is a mirror image of this one: his bulls are twitchy and his bears are more leisurely. So puzzling. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: application/octet-stream Size: 7945 bytes Desc: not available URL: From gts_2000 at yahoo.com Thu Oct 25 06:16:43 2012 From: gts_2000 at yahoo.com (Gordon) Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2012 23:16:43 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans In-Reply-To: <014d01cdb266$f14b3aa0$d3e1afe0$@att.net> References: <014d01cdb266$f14b3aa0$d3e1afe0$@att.net> Message-ID: <1351145803.38811.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> Hi Spike. Is this a trend you see over many days or weeks? I wouldn't read too much into one day's worth of data. Gordon ________________________________ From: spike To: 'ExI chat list' Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2012 10:12 PM Subject: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans ? There is something I noticed watching InTrade bets for who will win the POTUS elections in a couple weeks.? I need to do some math to convince myself that this is real, but what I noticed is that when the guy from Chicago has a bull run, it takes about an hour or more, but when he has a bear run, it can drop as far as it rose in a few minutes.? Examples are seen below, with a rise of about a point in about an hour, between 644 and about 740, but the bears do their thing right at 921 for about 5 minutes on wacky high trading volume. ? ? ? This reminds me of stuff we used to talk about way back in the play-money Ideas Futures days, when we used to discuss ways to get the bulls to stampede, or the bears to run for the doors, and make ?money? on it either way.? That was cool because it was the experimentation days in program trading, and the discussion list was a prototype Reddit group. ? If anyone wishes to comment on the above chart, I am not interested in political commentary, but rather the InTrade angle, and if the notion of Ideas Futures in general shed any light here.? I might be seeing ghosts in the data, or some completely random events triggering the well-known phenomenon of how program trading inherently creates positive feedback loops.? I don?t know why that in itself would cause asymmetrical changes in prices.? ? The only thing I can think of is that this is somehow related to the fact that there are fewer short sellers than those who go long: in this sort of game, people would prefer to hold YES cards for their own guy than NOs for the other guy.? But even then, that still doesn?t explain it because the other guy?s price chart is a mirror image of this one: his bulls are twitchy and his bears are more leisurely.? So puzzling. ? spike? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: application/octet-stream Size: 7945 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike66 at att.net Thu Oct 25 14:11:02 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2012 07:11:02 -0700 Subject: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans In-Reply-To: <1351145803.38811.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> References: <014d01cdb266$f14b3aa0$d3e1afe0$@att.net> <1351145803.38811.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <000001cdb2ba$911cfe30$b356fa90$@att.net> >? On Behalf Of Gordon Subject: Re: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans >?Hi Spike. Is this a trend you see over many days or weeks? I wouldn't read too much into one day's worth of data?Gordon Hi G, I had seen this before, but didn?t know what to make of it. I see another one happened this morning right at 842 AM, a point drop in about a minute, with a series of trades one tenth of a point apart. It does make me wonder if someone has figured out a way to cause a bear chain reaction somehow, perhaps by setting up a series of accounts with sequential bids that create the appearance of a stampede, which would cause an actual stampede. Then the game is to guess where is the bottom, so one can jump out in time. It looks like this kind of game works best when you have a huge trading volume, such as POTUS12, and a lot of players who aren?t regular professional traders. It is an event that lots of people like to speculate on, are willing to put a few bucks into it, and the news cycle influences greatly. Don?t get tangled up in the event itself, but rather that there is huge money to be made. I see from the total volume counter that over 22 million dollars has been spent so far on this one alone, and about 21 million on Romney shares. That doesn?t even include the derivatives, which are yakkity yak wins by at least 30 electoral votes, etc. Note the twitchy bulls in the Romney graph below: His upticks are sudden, but his bull runs are leisurely, the mirror image of his mainstream opponent. I think someone is manipulating this market somehow, and making buttloads of money. I think this is just ethically bankrupt and morally unacceptable, that this crafty devil isn?t me, but rather someone else making all that money. spike _____ From: spike To: 'ExI chat list' Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2012 10:12 PM Subject: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans >>There is something I noticed watching InTrade bets for who will win the POTUS elections in a couple weeks. I need to do some math to convince myself that this is real, but what I noticed is that when the guy from Chicago has a bull run, it takes about an hour or more, but when he has a bear run, it can drop as far as it rose in a few minutes. Examples are seen below, with a rise of about a point in about an hour, between 644 and about 740, but the bears do their thing right at 921 for about 5 minutes on wacky high trading volume ? the other guy?s price chart is a mirror image of this one: his bulls are twitchy and his bears are more leisurely. So puzzling. spike _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: application/octet-stream Size: 18140 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike66 at att.net Thu Oct 25 14:40:45 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2012 07:40:45 -0700 Subject: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans In-Reply-To: <000001cdb2ba$911cfe30$b356fa90$@att.net> References: <014d01cdb266$f14b3aa0$d3e1afe0$@att.net> <1351145803.38811.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> <000001cdb2ba$911cfe30$b356fa90$@att.net> Message-ID: <001501cdb2be$b80afa70$2820ef50$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike ? >?Note the twitchy bulls in the Romney graph below: >?His upticks are sudden, but his bull runs are leisurely, the mirror image of his mainstream opponent. I think someone is manipulating this market somehow, and making buttloads of money. I think this is just ethically bankrupt and morally unacceptable, that this crafty devil isn?t me, but rather someone else making all that money. spike Further evidence of market manipulation is seen in that horizontal line at about 135 AM on that chart above, and I think I have an insight as to what is happening. If you go to the Obama share prices during that period in the table below, you see what I think is evidently a series of trades where someone is buying Romneys and selling Obamas, or vice versa. The actual data is shown below, in the form of a ton of trades at 59.5 cents, 20 shares at a time in the middle of the night. I have a notion that perhaps this is caused by a program playing the spread somehow. When the combined price of Romney plus Obama exceeds a dollar, there is money to be made selling both shares short, since both cannot win, but theoretically both could lose. That series of 20 share trades in the night could be the short-selling program covering its shorts, or transferring money over from one candidate to the other, to even out the holdings, doing the trades carefully in such a way as to intentionally not stampede the bulls, so that it reloads for profit taking later in the day when humans are awake, getting ready to cause another stampede. If this theory is right, others will catch on soon, and perhaps the evidence will be sudden serial changes going both directions, and more of them occurring. Ohhhh this is so cool. {8^D The internet is god. {8-] spike Oct 25, 2012 1:01 AM EDT 59 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT 59.4 3 Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT 59.5 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT 59.6 146 Oct 25, 2012 1:07 AM EDT 59 153 Oct 25, 2012 1:07 AM EDT 59 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT 59.5 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT 59.5 47 Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT 59.5 3 Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT 59.5 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT 59.5 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:11 AM EDT 59.5 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:11 AM EDT 59.5 45 Oct 25, 2012 1:34 AM EDT 59.6 146 Oct 25, 2012 1:35 AM EDT 59.5 5 Oct 25, 2012 1:35 AM EDT 59.5 84 Oct 25, 2012 1:35 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:36 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:37 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:38 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:38 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:41 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:41 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:42 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:42 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT 59.7 29 Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT 59.7 71 Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:44 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT 59.5 18 Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT 59.5 2 Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT 59.5 18 Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT 59.5 17 Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT 59.5 16 Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT 59.5 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT 59.5 16 Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT 59.5 16 Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT 59.5 15 Oct 25, 2012 1:52 AM EDT 59.5 15 _____ From: spike To: 'ExI chat list' Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2012 10:12 PM Subject: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans >>There is something I noticed watching InTrade bets for who will win the POTUS elections in a couple weeks. I need to do some math to convince myself that this is real, but what I noticed is that when the guy from Chicago has a bull run, it takes about an hour or more, but when he has a bear run, it can drop as far as it rose in a few minutes. Examples are seen below, with a rise of about a point in about an hour, between 644 and about 740, but the bears do their thing right at 921 for about 5 minutes on wacky high trading volume ? the other guy?s price chart is a mirror image of this one: his bulls are twitchy and his bears are more leisurely. So puzzling. spike _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: application/octet-stream Size: 18140 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike66 at att.net Thu Oct 25 15:14:42 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2012 08:14:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans In-Reply-To: <000001cdb2ba$911cfe30$b356fa90$@att.net> References: <014d01cdb266$f14b3aa0$d3e1afe0$@att.net> <1351145803.38811.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> <000001cdb2ba$911cfe30$b356fa90$@att.net> Message-ID: <002401cdb2c3$763a9510$62afbf30$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike Sent: Thursday, October 25, 2012 7:11 AM To: 'Gordon'; 'ExI chat list' Subject: Re: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans >? On Behalf Of Gordon Subject: Re: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans >>?Hi Spike. Is this a trend you see over many days or weeks? I wouldn't read too much into one day's worth of data?Gordon >?Hi G, ? His upticks are sudden, but his bull runs are leisurely, the mirror image of his mainstream opponent. I think someone is manipulating this market somehow, and making buttloads of money. I think this is just ethically bankrupt and morally unacceptable, that this crafty devil isn?t me, but rather someone else making all that money?spike >Note the twitchy bulls in the Romney graph below: And here?s the roughly corresponding Obama graph: OK cool, I may have stumbled on some evidence to figure out what is going on here. Note that series of trades right about 135 AM in both the Romneys and the Obamas. There was a ton of trades every few seconds at 20 shares. The sum of the trades was 99.9 cents. This would make sense: the probability that both Romney and Obama lose is actually I think higher than 1 in a 1000, but perhaps it is wishful thinking on my part. 1 in a 1000 is probably about what most people would estimate as reasonable. My theory is that this 2AM series of trades, about 600 shares, or 6000 dollars, anticipated the bull stampede you see that happened just after 810AM, after the proles got up and had a couple cups of hot joe. Then the price of Obamas dropped a little over a cent, so that 6000 dollar investment made a cool 80 bucks for the investor. Watch for the same thing to happen tonight. spike Oct 25, 2012 12:51 AM EDT 59.6 1 Oct 25, 2012 12:51 AM EDT 40.5 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:01 AM EDT 59 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:02 AM EDT 41 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT 59.4 3 Oct 25, 2012 1:02 AM EDT 41 3 Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT 59.5 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:02 AM EDT 41.1 2 Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT 59.6 146 Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT 40.6 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:07 AM EDT 59 153 Oct 25, 2012 1:07 AM EDT 41 153 Oct 25, 2012 1:07 AM EDT 59 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:07 AM EDT 41 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT 59.5 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT 40.6 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT 59.5 47 Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT 40.6 2 Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT 59.5 3 Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT 40.5 45 Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT 59.5 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:11 AM EDT 40.6 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:10 AM EDT 59.5 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:27 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:11 AM EDT 59.5 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:34 AM EDT 40.3 22 Oct 25, 2012 1:11 AM EDT 59.5 45 Oct 25, 2012 1:35 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:34 AM EDT 59.6 146 Oct 25, 2012 1:36 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:35 AM EDT 59.5 5 Oct 25, 2012 1:37 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:35 AM EDT 59.5 84 Oct 25, 2012 1:38 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:35 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:38 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:36 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:37 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:38 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:38 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:39 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:41 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:41 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:40 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:42 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:41 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:42 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:41 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:42 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:42 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:44 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:45 AM EDT 40.4 5 Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT 59.7 29 Oct 25, 2012 1:45 AM EDT 40.4 17 Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT 59.7 71 Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:43 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:44 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT 40.4 10 Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT 40.4 1158 Oct 25, 2012 1:48 AM EDT 59.5 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT 40.4 18 Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT 59.5 18 Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT 40.4 2 Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT 59.5 2 Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT 40.4 18 Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT 59.5 18 Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT 40.4 17 Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT 59.5 17 Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT 59.5 16 Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT 40.4 16 Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT 59.5 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT 40.4 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT 59.5 16 Oct 25, 2012 1:50 AM EDT 40.4 1 Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT 59.5 16 Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT 40.4 16 Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT 59.5 15 Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT 40.4 16 Oct 25, 2012 1:52 AM EDT 59.5 15 Oct 25, 2012 1:51 AM EDT 40.4 15 Oct 25, 2012 1:52 AM EDT 59.5 15 Oct 25, 2012 1:52 AM EDT 40.4 15 Oct 25, 2012 1:53 AM EDT 59.5 15 Oct 25, 2012 1:52 AM EDT 40.4 15 Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT 59.5 14 Oct 25, 2012 1:53 AM EDT 40.4 15 Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT 59.5 14 Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT 40.4 14 Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT 59.5 14 Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT 40.4 14 Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT 59.5 13 Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT 40.4 14 Oct 25, 2012 1:55 AM EDT 59.5 13 Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT 40.4 13 Oct 25, 2012 1:55 AM EDT 59.5 13 Oct 25, 2012 1:55 AM EDT 40.4 20 Oct 25, 2012 1:56 AM EDT 59.5 12 Oct 25, 2012 1:55 AM EDT 40.4 13 Oct 25, 2012 1:56 AM EDT 59.5 12 Oct 25, 2012 1:55 AM EDT 40.4 13 Oct 25, 2012 1:56 AM EDT 59.5 12 Oct 25, 2012 1:56 AM EDT 40.4 12 Oct 25, 2012 1:57 AM EDT 59.5 12 Oct 25, 2012 1:56 AM EDT 40.4 12 Oct 25, 2012 1:57 AM EDT 59.5 11 Oct 25, 2012 1:56 AM EDT 40.4 12 Oct 25, 2012 1:57 AM EDT 59.5 11 Oct 25, 2012 1:57 AM EDT 40.4 12 Oct 25, 2012 1:58 AM EDT 59.5 11 Oct 25, 2012 1:57 AM EDT 40.4 11 Oct 25, 2012 1:58 AM EDT 59.6 5 Oct 25, 2012 1:57 AM EDT 40.4 11 Oct 25, 2012 1:59 AM EDT 59.5 11 Oct 25, 2012 1:58 AM EDT 40.4 11 Oct 25, 2012 1:59 AM EDT 59.5 10 Oct 25, 2012 1:59 AM EDT 40.4 11 Oct 25, 2012 2:00 AM EDT 59.5 10 Oct 25, 2012 1:59 AM EDT 40.4 10 Oct 25, 2012 2:00 AM EDT 59.5 10 Oct 25, 2012 2:00 AM EDT 40.4 10 Oct 25, 2012 2:00 AM EDT 59.5 10 Oct 25, 2012 2:00 AM EDT 40.4 10 Oct 25, 2012 2:01 AM EDT 59.5 10 Oct 25, 2012 2:00 AM EDT 40.4 10 Oct 25, 2012 2:01 AM EDT 59.5 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:01 AM EDT 40.4 10 Oct 25, 2012 2:01 AM EDT 59.5 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:01 AM EDT 40.4 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:02 AM EDT 59.5 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:01 AM EDT 40.4 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:02 AM EDT 59.5 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:02 AM EDT 40.4 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:02 AM EDT 59.5 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:02 AM EDT 40.4 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT 59.5 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:02 AM EDT 40.4 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT 59.5 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT 40.4 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT 59.5 8 Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT 40.4 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT 59.5 8 Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT 40.4 9 Oct 25, 2012 2:04 AM EDT 59.5 7 Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT 40.4 8 Oct 25, 2012 2:04 AM EDT 59.5 14 Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT 40.4 8 Oct 25, 2012 2:05 AM EDT 59.5 3 Oct 25, 2012 2:04 AM EDT 40.4 10 Oct 25, 2012 2:05 AM EDT 59.5 60 Oct 25, 2012 2:04 AM EDT 40.4 14 Oct 25, 2012 2:05 AM EDT 59.6 10 Oct 25, 2012 2:05 AM EDT 40.4 200 Oct 25, 2012 2:05 AM EDT 59.6 10 Oct 25, 2012 2:05 AM EDT 40.4 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Name: image004.jpg Type: application/octet-stream Size: 19216 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike66 at att.net Thu Oct 25 15:58:11 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2012 08:58:11 -0700 Subject: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans In-Reply-To: <002401cdb2c3$763a9510$62afbf30$@att.net> References: <014d01cdb266$f14b3aa0$d3e1afe0$@att.net> <1351145803.38811.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> <000001cdb2ba$911cfe30$b356fa90$@att.net> <002401cdb2c3$763a9510$62afbf30$@att.net> Message-ID: <004d01cdb2c9$893d77d0$9bb86770$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike ? >>?Note the twitchy bulls in the Romney graph below: ? >>?And here?s the roughly corresponding Obama graph: ? >?OK cool, I may have stumbled on some evidence to figure out what is going on here?spike ? Pardon please my high-volume posting on this topic, but be assured it will end (well, it will probably end) in a couple weeks. OK so imagine the scheme was to make a bunch of trades under the radar, 20 shares at a time in the middle of the US night when not many US traders are watching. Then the trick would be to make money in the US daytime when the USians, who are most interested in this particular meme, are doing most of their trading. Then one could transfer a ton of money in the night without drawing much attention. The fact that all the trades were the same volume and the same price leads me to think it was the same person or program doing the trading, perhaps somehow selling the shares to itself. I don?t know how that works, but imagine something creating that appearance intentionally to create the apparent signature of high volume trading, perhaps to get the attention of the software traders who do not sleep, but who watch for certain signals. Then the program could own shares of both mainstream candidates, and be ready to trigger, or take advantage if something else triggers, any stampede either direction. That allows the software to take advantage of the observation that this complementary pair of memes tends to be active as hell during the US daytime and relatively inactive in the night, a feature less available on the stock market. Actually this still doesn?t explain the apparent asymmetry where one feller?s prices drop suddenly but rise more gradually. That one is still puzzling, and I don?t even know for sure if it is real or just a coincidence. If I get time today, I could go through and calculate slopes on any change greater than 1 cent. Ohhh there is money to be made here, big money, scores of dollars, possibly hundreds. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Thu Oct 25 19:01:29 2012 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2012 15:01:29 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Mythbusters: Does God Exist? Message-ID: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5joYY3VrBtM -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lubkin at unreasonable.com Thu Oct 25 22:39:36 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2012 18:39:36 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Convergence In-Reply-To: <00a801cdb21b$405006e0$c0f014a0$@att.net> References: <201210230133.q9N1XqJC016605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <50869B55.2060201@aleph.se> <5087A878.2080902@aleph.se> <5087C2EC.9070705@aleph.se> <00a801cdb21b$405006e0$c0f014a0$@att.net> Message-ID: <201210252239.q9PMdmDh017020@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Spike wrote: >Another example: I know how to fix cars to some extent. We could >imagine getting a call to help a little old lady whose Detroit >conked about two blocks from where you are now standing, and do you >have time to go take care of that, etc. Might be just changing a >tire, or a bad alternator has drained the battery, so just go swap >out the battery, drive the car to your house and use that oddball >item you have on hand: in my case an alternator with fresh brushes >that will fit late 80s series Ford pickups. > >The point of all this: I can imagine a convergence of sorts between >virtual realities and meat-world real realities. We could have >virtual currencies that reward the good-deed doer, or for that >matter, let people volunteer to help little old ladies for >nothing. I would do it in most cases. On a completely legitimate >non-illegitimate not-expecting-any-extramarital-anything basis of >course. We could become a super-connected super-organism of sorts, >communicating constantly and making so many cool things happen, >legitimate things, and take care of our collective needs so >effectively, legitimate needs, such as mechanical repairs and >nothing biological you understand, unless the person has actual >medical training and skills. This is a modest step from what we have already, with sites like freecycle and barter exchanges. Your extension is in reducing the granularity. Like going from "here are people you can talk about Xerxes with," on a mailing list or forum, to "there's someone two gates down from you at the airport who's up for a good game of chess." You're dependent on a trust level, between you and the little old lady, between each of you and the site that knows enough about each of you to facilitate a pairing, and between each of you and anyone else who might access the information, with or without authorization. The answer lies, I think, in an area of distributed AI I used to think a lot about, and maybe should get back to. Negotiation between mutually suspicious autonomous agents. Although a single, large, trusted site could work. (People rationally shouldn't trust an eBay as an intermediary but they do.) That area of DAI may be with us forever, even if we're all one big M-brain. The nodes at level-21212 need not have a unity of thought and goals with the nodes at level-387493. -- David. From spike66 at att.net Thu Oct 25 23:05:30 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2012 16:05:30 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Convergence In-Reply-To: <201210252239.q9PMdmDh017020@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201210230133.q9N1XqJC016605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <50869B55.2060201@aleph.se> <5087A878.2080902@aleph.se> <5087C2EC.9070705@aleph.se> <00a801cdb21b$405006e0$c0f014a0$@att.net> <201210252239.q9PMdmDh017020@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <008701cdb305$3bc2e850$b348b8f0$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of David Lubkin ... >...The answer lies, I think, in an area of distributed AI I used to think a lot about, and maybe should get back to... Yes, do so, sir please. We could really use your brains on that tough problem. >... Negotiation between mutually suspicious autonomous agents. Although a single, large, trusted site could work... -- David. Ja, but what I have in mind is induced trust through transparency. Even if bad guys somehow get into the system, if they go on a local assistance call, the system would know where he is and perhaps even see and hear everything he sees and hears. That way he cannot do anything untoward and be undetected. I do not know how to handle the angle I was hinting at in the original post, where for instance a call comes in that if there are any single dentists available a local SWF has a cavity she wants filled. At some point after he arrives (several seconds later) the system must legitimately be turned off, to prevent an excess of salacious information being archived forevermore. I was introduced to the internet shortly after Al Gore invented it, late 70s. In those days of course it was all text, but I read over some of the material. About half of it was lonely hearts stuff in one form or another, a common form being a carryover from the old newspaper want ads looking for partners. Today, if we look at everything online, about half of it is lonely hearts stuff in one form or another, a common form being a carryover from the old pre-web internet days. This assessment depends on how you classify tweets, which might be called a cotton-candy version of lonely hearts ads, at least most of it. So by natural extension, if we manage to create something like real-time continuous audio-video mobile super-connectivity, I can imagine about half of the bandwidth would be dedicated in some form to the mating game. Do let me assure the singles here, although I have been happily paired for over 30 years, I clearly remember loneliness, and I deeply empathize with those who go to extraordinary lengths to find one's soul mate. This Metaman system might actually help with that. Our brains evolve, but our hearts never do. spike From msd001 at gmail.com Fri Oct 26 01:04:11 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2012 21:04:11 -0400 Subject: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans In-Reply-To: <004d01cdb2c9$893d77d0$9bb86770$@att.net> References: <014d01cdb266$f14b3aa0$d3e1afe0$@att.net> <1351145803.38811.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> <000001cdb2ba$911cfe30$b356fa90$@att.net> <002401cdb2c3$763a9510$62afbf30$@att.net> <004d01cdb2c9$893d77d0$9bb86770$@att.net> Message-ID: On Thu, Oct 25, 2012 at 11:58 AM, spike wrote: > Ohhh there is money to be made here, big money, scores of dollars, possibly > hundreds. How much does your public musing on the subject confound the algorithm you're trying to discover? How do you know I'm not a half-step ahead of you and adjusting my strategy every time you get close to figuring it out? There have been a lot of countermeasures to mitigate collusion in gaming systems (and at the end of the day, it's all some form of game theory, right?) Has there been equal study in "partnering" with an unseen hand? Is the paranoid gambler more or less successful than a causal player? I'm confident the twitchy monkey ran away from perceived danger that may not have existed 99+% of the time, but since he also managed to escape that 1% that killed his competition we're all descended from that paranoid prediction model. Whether you find a way to overcome it in your own thinking or find a way to exploit the crowd behavior there is an advantage to be had. From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Fri Oct 26 13:16:09 2012 From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 06:16:09 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] Vampires? In-Reply-To: <5087031B.8040307@libero.it> References: <5087031B.8040307@libero.it> Message-ID: <1351257369.99092.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> ----- Original Message ----- > From: Mirco Romanato > To: ExI chat list > Cc: > Sent: Tuesday, October 23, 2012 1:50 PM > Subject: Re: [ExI] Vampires? > > Il 23/10/2012 19:53, Adrian Tymes ha scritto: >> On Tue, Oct 23, 2012 at 9:50 AM, BillK wrote: >>> Looks like drinking the blood of young virgins is coming back in > fashion. >> >> Injecting, and there wasn't anything about virgins, unless there's > worry >> about STDs. > > I hope so, because the available stock of virgins is very thin. It's thinner than you realize. Not having access to nature (the journal not the physical entity), I am willing to bet $20 USD?that the researchers used young and old mice from the same in-bred strain. This would be that the mice were very nearly clones of one another being syntenic to greater than 98% of their genomes. Since?the blood borne factor(s)?remain unidentified,?chances are that not *any* virgin would do.?Unless it came down to a particular cocktail of?cytokines and?soluble factors?(unlikely), the?donors?would probably?need (at least) to be HLA?compatable to you and virginity would be optional as long as they were young. ? I would appreciate it if?somebody with an institutional subscription could please forward me?the primary article offlist.? ? Stuart LaForge "Prisons are built with stones of Law. Brothels with the bricks of religion." - William Blake?? From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Fri Oct 26 13:47:12 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 06:47:12 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Oxford Message-ID: Couple of weeks from now I will be in Oxford, close anyway, and possibly free Thursday and Friday nights. It will be on the way back from Frankfurt. Keith From atymes at gmail.com Fri Oct 26 16:45:30 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 09:45:30 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Vampires? In-Reply-To: <1351257369.99092.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> References: <5087031B.8040307@libero.it> <1351257369.99092.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Oct 26, 2012 at 6:16 AM, The Avantguardian wrote: > I would appreciate it if somebody with an institutional subscription could please forward me the primary article offlist. I'll do you one better: it's been retracted by 3 of the 4 original authors. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v467/n7317/full/nature09474.html http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v463/n7280/full/nature08749.html The benefits of waiting for review before jumping to conclusions about newly-published research. From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Fri Oct 26 16:30:38 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 18:30:38 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Convergence In-Reply-To: <50869B55.2060201@aleph.se> References: <201210230133.q9N1XqJC016605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <50869B55.2060201@aleph.se> Message-ID: On 23 October 2012 15:27, Anders Sandberg wrote: > The big problem with predicting the future is that even when you get the > analysis right, it might still take far longer than you expect for it to > come true. > Another issue is that past futurology may be fairly accurate as to what could and should actually have happened, and what is actually "wrong" may be more the turn things have taken than the predictions... :-) -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lubkin at unreasonable.com Fri Oct 26 17:31:59 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 13:31:59 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein Message-ID: <201210261732.q9QHW7nb009417@andromeda.ziaspace.com> I'm not sure what the backstory is, but this is disturbing. Silverhill man gets time served for trying to 'skim' credit card information from ATM Does anyone know more they can share privately? (Or here, if it seems appropriate.) -- David. From kanzure at gmail.com Fri Oct 26 17:39:54 2012 From: kanzure at gmail.com (Bryan Bishop) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 12:39:54 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: <201210261732.q9QHW7nb009417@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201210261732.q9QHW7nb009417@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Oct 26, 2012 at 12:31 PM, David Lubkin wrote: > I'm not sure what the backstory is, but this is disturbing. > I think the stolen money from singinst is more disturbing. In comparison, this was harmless fun. - Bryan http://heybryan.org/ 1 512 203 0507 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From max at maxmore.com Fri Oct 26 18:08:04 2012 From: max at maxmore.com (Max More) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 11:08:04 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: <201210261732.q9QHW7nb009417@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201210261732.q9QHW7nb009417@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: I can confirm this story, but don't have many additional details. We were shocked when this news came out. Bruce had seemed to a decent and likeable fellow. Exactly what led up to this is still unclear. I recently spoke to someone from Longecity (formerly Immortality Institute), who said they were considering bringing him back in some limited way, in recognition of his past major work there and with the hope that reconnecting may help rehabilitate him from whatever explains this criminal behavior. --Max On Fri, Oct 26, 2012 at 10:31 AM, David Lubkin wrote: > I'm not sure what the backstory is, but this is disturbing. > > > > > Silverhill man gets time served for trying to 'skim' credit card > information from ATM > > Does anyone know more they can share privately? (Or here, > if it seems appropriate.) > > > -- David. > > ______________________________**_________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/**mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-**chat > -- Max More, PhD Strategic Philosopher Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader* President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation 7895 E. Acoma Dr # 110 Scottsdale, AZ 85260 480/905-1906 ext 113 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lubkin at unreasonable.com Fri Oct 26 19:11:30 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 15:11:30 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: References: <201210261732.q9QHW7nb009417@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <201210261911.q9QJBfD2008605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Bryan replied: >I think the stolen money from singinst is more disturbing. In >comparison, this was harmless fun. That is certainly a disturbing phrase. I hadn't heard about that. Again, can someone sketch out what happened, privately or here? Max replied: >I can confirm this story, but don't have many additional details. We >were shocked when this news came out. Bruce had seemed to a decent >and likeable fellow. Exactly what led up to this is still unclear. I >recently spoke to someone from Longecity (formerly Immortality >Institute), who said they were considering bringing him back in some >limited way, in recognition of his past major work there and with >the hope that reconnecting may help rehabilitate him from whatever >explains this criminal behavior. Pulling back, across the years we've seen dubious conduct from people who were for a time integral members of our community or simply crossed our paths. Some of whom reached mainstream prominence. Whose intersection with us can be discerned by a Google search. (I have several names in mind. Which, were I to enumerate, would put this message into those search results.) The answer, I suppose, is to grow to sufficient numbers that we are not tarnished by the actions of any one person, however notorious. But history has shown where even a movement of millions was considered suspect because of one or two people. -- David. From natasha at natasha.cc Fri Oct 26 18:48:13 2012 From: natasha at natasha.cc (Natasha Vita-More) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 11:48:13 -0700 Subject: [ExI] META - text Message-ID: <008701cdb3aa$748ea4d0$5dabee70$@natasha.cc> Hi everyone! I am trying again to post to this list. Sorry for the disturbing you all, but I may have had a problem with my email server or a gremlin got in the list server. Best, Natasha Natasha Vita-More, PhD esDESiGN_email Professor, University of Advancing Technology Chairman, Humanity+ Producer/Host, H+TV -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 5920 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike66 at att.net Fri Oct 26 19:59:59 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 12:59:59 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Convergence In-Reply-To: References: <201210230133.q9N1XqJC016605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <50869B55.2060201@aleph.se> Message-ID: <00b901cdb3b4$7b6d2c90$724785b0$@att.net> >. On Behalf Of Stefano Vaj Subject: Re: [ExI] Convergence On 23 October 2012 15:27, Anders Sandberg wrote: >>.The big problem with predicting the future is that even when you get the analysis right, it might still take far longer than you expect for it to come true. >.Another issue is that past futurology may be fairly accurate as to what could and should actually have happened, and what is actually "wrong" may be more the turn things have taken than the predictions... :-) -- Stefano Vaj JA! I have long suspected this, Stefano. All my predictions are right on, but they never turn out that way: the future keeps going off course. It's the future's fault! The silly proles don't recognize true brilliance and humility in their finest and most foresightful forecaster. I like that triple negative comment by that old-time religion feller whose name I don't recall at the moment, who commented in Matthew 13 verse 57: A prophet is not without honor, save in his own home town. Or something like that. If the yahoos would just do as I said they would do, then this wouldn't happen. I would be listed among the greatest of the profits. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Fri Oct 26 20:18:03 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 13:18:03 -0700 Subject: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans In-Reply-To: <002401cdb2c3$763a9510$62afbf30$@att.net> References: <014d01cdb266$f14b3aa0$d3e1afe0$@att.net> <1351145803.38811.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> <000001cdb2ba$911cfe30$b356fa90$@att.net> <002401cdb2c3$763a9510$62afbf30$@att.net> Message-ID: <00d001cdb3b7$0194abc0$04be0340$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike Sent: Thursday, October 25, 2012 8:15 AM To: 'ExI chat list'; 'Gordon' Subject: Re: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans OK here?s another puzzle for you InTrade fans. Check out that oddball signal on the left of the chart below: There was a huge volume of trades, each of one share, alternating between 63.1 and 63.6 cents. I don?t know what it means, but there were interspersed trades of other values. This is most puzzling. It appears that it is the flip side of that coin where someone had a huge series of trades all at the same value, spaced at the same interval yesterday. That one was in the middle of the night, this one in the middle of the day, noon east coast US time, when the very most active traders would be watching and perhaps on their lunch break, trading. So we saw a yesterday bunch of trades rapid-fire, middle of the night, same price, every 20 seconds. This signal is a bunch of trades, alternating prices, transferring five bucks per trade, rapid fire, middle of the day. The most plausible explanation I can think of is some yahoo is experimenting with an active market, testing to see how best to cause the bulls to stampede. If this is right, look for a bunch of equal value trades at noon eastern tomorrow, and a bunch of alternating trades in the middle of the night tonight. If she figures out how to stampede the bulls, we might be able to look at what she did and reverse engineer it. Then we too make buttloads of money, perhaps hundreds of dollars, hundreds! Other ideas? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.png Type: application/octet-stream Size: 10430 bytes Desc: not available URL: From anders at aleph.se Fri Oct 26 22:50:24 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 23:50:24 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Oxford In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <508B13B0.1060609@aleph.se> On 26/10/2012 14:47, Keith Henson wrote: > Couple of weeks from now I will be in Oxford, close anyway, and > possibly free Thursday and Friday nights. > > It will be on the way back from Frankfurt. Cool! When? It would be great to meet up. (Oxford was shockingly dark and autumny after the Bay Area and especially Arizona, but we do make it up by having interesting laser physics doodles on the whiteboard and fun discussions about how to use Penrose's new cyclic universe model to solve the Goldbach conjecture). -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Oxford Martin School Faculty of Philosophy Oxford University From natasha at natasha.cc Sat Oct 27 00:11:10 2012 From: natasha at natasha.cc (Natasha Vita-More) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 17:11:10 -0700 Subject: [ExI] ANNOUNCE: Humanity+ @ San Francisco Conference Dec 1-2 Message-ID: <001b01cdb3d7$98cdb110$ca691330$@natasha.cc> December 1-2, San Francisco State University "Writing the Future" We have a great lineup of speakers including: Kim Stanley Robinson, Sonia Arrison, Jamais Casio, Max More, PJ Manney, RU Sirius, Randal Koene and Natasha Vita-More! Skyping in are David Brin and Ben Goertzel! And a special tribute to Ray Kurzweil's new book! Conference website: http://2012.humanityplus.org/ GET YOUR TICKETS! Announcement: http://www.kurzweilai.net/humanity-san-francisco Promo Video! Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/events/509264069102231/?fref=ts Venue: http://2012.humanityplus.org/venue/ Lodging suggestion: http://2012.humanityplus.org/lodging/ (you must secure your room by November 7 to get the discount rate!) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image005.png Type: image/png Size: 74097 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 4746 bytes Desc: not available URL: From pizerdavid at yahoo.com Sat Oct 27 04:24:56 2012 From: pizerdavid at yahoo.com (david pizer) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 21:24:56 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] Cryonics Meeting change Message-ID: <1351311896.7666.YahooMailNeo@web121703.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> The Venturist monthly meetup and social get-together for the month of November will be held in Scottsdale Arizona. WHAT DAY: On Saturday November 3rd the Venturist monthly meeting will be at Jack Sinclair's house not too far from the Alcor Life Extension Foundation. WHAT TIME: The get-together will be at 2 pm. WHERE: Jack's address is 6901 E. Friess Dr. That is two blocks north of Thunderbird rd. For more directions email Dr. Mike Perry at mike at alcor.org EVERYONE IS INVITED TO THIS SOCIAL EVENT. Come out and bring your ideas to make cryonics better, to meet new people, to ask questions, to have fun. There will not be a meeting at the Creekside Lodge in November. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From gts_2000 at yahoo.com Sat Oct 27 05:47:22 2012 From: gts_2000 at yahoo.com (Gordon) Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 22:47:22 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans In-Reply-To: <004d01cdb2c9$893d77d0$9bb86770$@att.net> References: <014d01cdb266$f14b3aa0$d3e1afe0$@att.net> <1351145803.38811.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> <000001cdb2ba$911cfe30$b356fa90$@att.net> <002401cdb2c3$763a9510$62afbf30$@att.net> <004d01cdb2c9$893d77d0$9bb86770$@att.net> Message-ID: <1351316842.51359.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> Hi again, spike. You've offered a lot of interesting ideas here. I haven't had time to really think carefully about them. I will tell you my default positions, though: 1) I think free markets are basically efficient, including what you're calling idea markets. This is to say that I think prices are the best estimates of the future, even if they're often wrong. 2) I think these new prediction (idea) markets might be a special case, an anomaly to rule 1). They might be inefficient on account of low trading volume or other reasons. 3) I doubt anyone is actually manipulating the market at Intrade, even if the market there might be inefficient. 4) The behavior of Intrade prices on contracts for Obama and Romney has been very interesting. Most US polls show the race to be close, but Intrade prices suggest Obama has a huge advantage of 60% or more. 5) How do we explain 4)? Well, Intrade is an international market, headquartered in Ireland. Polls show that Europeans and most people in many foreign countries overwhelmingly support Obama over Romney. This might explain the Intrade bias toward Obama. 6) If 5) is true, how do we exploit it? One could in principle short Obama. The contracts are in theory over-priced as a result of non-voters in Europe and other places. On the other hand, I really don't want to short Obama. Finally, as you say, Ohhh there is money to be made here, big money, scores of dollars, possibly hundreds. Right. It's hard to get excited about about hundreds. :) -Gordon ________________________________ From: spike To: 'ExI chat list' ; 'Gordon' Sent: Thursday, October 25, 2012 9:58 AM Subject: RE: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans ? ? From:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike ? ? >>?Note the twitchy bulls in the Romney graph below: ? >>?And here?s the roughly corresponding Obama graph: ? >?OK cool, I may have stumbled on some evidence to figure out what is going on here?spike ? Pardon please my high-volume posting on this topic, but be assured it will end (well, it will probably end) in a couple weeks. ? OK so imagine the scheme was to make a bunch of trades under the radar, 20 shares at a time in the middle of the US night when not many US traders are watching.? Then the trick would be to make money in the US daytime when the USians, who are most interested in this? particular meme, are doing most of their trading.? Then one could transfer a ton of money in the night without drawing much attention.? The fact that all the trades were the same volume and the same price leads me to think it was the same person or program doing the trading, perhaps somehow selling the shares to itself.? ? I don?t know how that works, but imagine something creating that appearance intentionally to create the apparent signature of high volume trading, perhaps to get the attention of the software traders who do not sleep, but who watch for certain signals.? Then the program could own shares of both mainstream candidates, and be ready to trigger, or take advantage if something else triggers, any stampede either direction.? That allows the software to take advantage of the observation that this complementary pair of memes tends to be active as hell during the US daytime and relatively inactive in the night, a feature less available on the stock market. ? Actually this still doesn?t explain the apparent asymmetry where one feller?s prices drop suddenly but rise more gradually.? That one is still puzzling, and I don?t even know for sure if it is real or just a coincidence.? If I get time today, I could go through and calculate slopes on any change greater than 1 cent. ? Ohhh there is money to be made here, big money, scores of dollars, possibly hundreds. ? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Sat Oct 27 07:28:10 2012 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2012 09:28:10 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: References: <201210261732.q9QHW7nb009417@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: Bruce is a great guy, I feel sorry for those whose money he took, but I also feel sorry for him. The simplest explanation (which is often the best) for his behavior is that he desperately needed money for basic needs. In such situations, it may happen that very good persons do very bad things. I hope Bruce will recover from his difficulties and be again a great person and a great member of this community, and I am sure he will want to give back what he has taken, as soon as he can. On Fri, Oct 26, 2012 at 8:08 PM, Max More wrote: > I can confirm this story, but don't have many additional details. We were > shocked when this news came out. Bruce had seemed to a decent and likeable > fellow. Exactly what led up to this is still unclear. I recently spoke to > someone from Longecity (formerly Immortality Institute), who said they were > considering bringing him back in some limited way, in recognition of his > past major work there and with the hope that reconnecting may help > rehabilitate him from whatever explains this criminal behavior. > > --Max > > > > On Fri, Oct 26, 2012 at 10:31 AM, David Lubkin > wrote: >> >> I'm not sure what the backstory is, but this is disturbing. >> >> >> Silverhill man gets time served for trying to 'skim' credit card >> information from ATM >> >> Does anyone know more they can share privately? (Or here, >> if it seems appropriate.) >> >> >> -- David. >> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > > > > -- > Max More, PhD > Strategic Philosopher > Co-editor, The Transhumanist Reader > President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation > 7895 E. Acoma Dr # 110 > Scottsdale, AZ 85260 > 480/905-1906 ext 113 > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From spike66 at att.net Sat Oct 27 12:53:09 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2012 05:53:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans In-Reply-To: <1351316842.51359.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> References: <014d01cdb266$f14b3aa0$d3e1afe0$@att.net> <1351145803.38811.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> <000001cdb2ba$911cfe30$b356fa90$@att.net> <002401cdb2c3$763a9510$62afbf30$@att.net> <004d01cdb2c9$893d77d0$9bb86770$@att.net> <1351316842.51359.YahooMailNeo@web121206.mail.ne1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <005601cdb442$049cd280$0dd67780$@att.net> From: Gordon [mailto:gts_2000 at yahoo.com] Sent: Friday, October 26, 2012 10:47 PM To: spike; 'ExI chat list' Subject: Re: [ExI] puzzle for intrade fans >?Hi again, spike. You've offered a lot of interesting ideas here. I haven't had time to really think carefully about them. I will tell you my default positions, though: >?3) I doubt anyone is actually manipulating the market at Intrade? Unacceptable! If no one is doing this, someone should be. There is big money going unmade here. This is a shameful waste of perfectly good capitalism. >?4) The behavior of Intrade prices on contracts for Obama and Romney has been very interesting. Ja! Check out the weird series of trades in 4 cent increments at 741 PM and the two at 1006 and 1008, both of which are a rapid-fire series of various volume trades at 5 cent increments all within a few seconds of each other. All this might be completely software driven, with no sinister motives. Our mission: provide sinister motives. Failing that, ordinary profit motives will have to do. So now we have seen a rapid series of trades of equal volume and equal price, we have seen a rapid series of trades at 4 and 5 cent increments of varying size lots. The trades are too uniform in size and increments to be meat-based traders; they must be scripts reacting to market conditions. I still don?t know what to make of the observation that one candidate changes slowly up and quickly down, or even if that signal is real. It does not seem to be based on any news items that I can tell, or even the release of really fun ads such as these two yesterday: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6G3nwhPuR4 and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSxDE1QCHA4 {8^D heeeeheheheheheeeeeehehehehaaarrrharharharrrrr? >?Most US polls show the race to be close, but Intrade prices suggest Obama has a huge advantage of 60% or more? Hmmm, Gordon, do recognize that 60 cents on Intrade is not a huge advantage. That is a tossup. It corresponds to polls very close to the margin of error. We seldom see an active meme that stays as well-balanced as this one has for as long as it has. >?5) How do we explain 4)? Well, Intrade is an international market, headquartered in Ireland. Polls show that Europeans and most people in many foreign countries overwhelmingly support Obama over Romney. This might explain the Intrade bias toward Obama? Ja perhaps, but I think most of the trading on this one is US-ian. Also, the price is driven by what you think will happen rather than what you want to happen. I suspect there is some price influence by wishing it so. There is likely some price influence by the press as well, which overwhelmingly support Obama. I don?t know what the press is saying in Europe, Africa, Asia and South America about this race. Gary Johnson is getting almost no ink over here, damn. >?6) If 5) is true, how do we exploit it? One could in principle short Obama. The contracts are in theory over-priced as a result of non-voters in Europe and other places? No, me lad, betting on one or the other of the mainstreamers won?t make you much money, and it is risky. What I have been studying is how to make money by stampeding the herd. It sure looks to me like others have thought of this too, or are experimenting with it. >?On the other hand, I really don't want to short Obama. The idea is to short both of the mainstream guys when their combined prices exceed a dollar, which is actually most of the time, then cover your shorts and go long on both during those periods when the combined prices drop below a dollar. I expect that phenomenon is what causes the oddball signals, but I haven?t yet been able to figure out how those scripts work. >?Right. It's hard to get excited about about hundreds. :) -Gordon It?s just a game Gordon, just a game. The whole exercise of voting might be just a game: we have no way of verifying our vote counted. Our country is making exactly no moves to create more verifiable voting systems, we still have computerized non-auditable voting machines in some places, and the transparency of the system is actually decreasing rather than increasing in some ways: http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/24/texas-attorney-general-warns-un-poll-watchers-to-keep-their-distance/ In Wisconsin in 2008, a senator was elected by 316 votes in an election where they later discovered approximately 1100 ineligible voters, yet there is no means for undoing those votes, for they cannot be tracked or verified. So the outcome stands. That senator gave one party a super-majority, which allowed our health care system to be brutally overhauled without a single republican vote and without debate on the senate floor of an over 2000 page bill with enormous consequences. This act is reverberating to this day. There were ineligible voters in Florida in that crazy 2000 election as well, that one which chose (we think) W, but we cannot know for sure. The invasion of Iraq might have been an enormous mistake, and might need to be cancelled, the whole thing, bring back Al Gore and all of Saddam Hussein?s people we can find, replay. Failing that, we need completely auditable accountability in all elections, even at the expense of privacy. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: application/octet-stream Size: 8293 bytes Desc: not available URL: From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Sat Oct 27 14:43:46 2012 From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian) Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2012 07:43:46 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] Scientific Frad was Re: Vampires? References: <5087031B.8040307@libero.it> <1351257369.99092.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <1351349026.15544.YahooMailNeo@web160503.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> ----- Original Message ----- > From: Adrian Tymes > To: ExI chat list > Cc: > Sent: Friday, October 26, 2012 9:45 AM > Subject: Re: [ExI] Vampires? > > On Fri, Oct 26, 2012 at 6:16 AM, The Avantguardian > wrote: >>? I would appreciate it if somebody with an institutional subscription could > please forward me the primary article offlist. > > I'll do you one better: it's been retracted by 3 of the 4 original > authors. > > http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v467/n7317/full/nature09474.html > > http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v463/n7280/full/nature08749.html > > The benefits of waiting for review before jumping to conclusions about > newly-published research. Well back when I was doing publically-funded research, peer-review came *before* publication as well as after. That is, after all, the point of refereeing?an manuscript before publication. Also back then,?publication in either Nature?or Science?was considered?the holy grail of academic science. I guess age-related disillusionment is not bounded from below. ? Also I am not sure what conclusions you think?I was implying, My only conclusion was a that a nature paper deserved?to be?read. However I do have?a hypothesis and business model at stake in the matter and therefore the interest on my part. In any case thanks to you and BillK for the update. In my opinion journals should only publish?a study with?positive results if that study has been at least once replicated by an independant lab and should also?be required to publish?any well-designed study that furnished?negative results even if it wasn't sexy. ? It is irrational to throw away negative results to experiments instead of publishing them and treating them as expensive *knowledge* paid for by tax dollars. By penalizing. researchers for negative results, you are simultaneously discarding an?informative prior distribution and settling for a flat prior, selecting?against honest researchers,?encouraging fraud, and the overzealous?reporting of false positives. This?should be?considered a sin in Bayesian reasoning and public policy. ? ? Stuart LaForge "Prisons are built with stones of Law. Brothels with the bricks of religion." - William Blake From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Sat Oct 27 15:12:52 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2012 17:12:52 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Convergence In-Reply-To: <00b901cdb3b4$7b6d2c90$724785b0$@att.net> References: <201210230133.q9N1XqJC016605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <50869B55.2060201@aleph.se> <00b901cdb3b4$7b6d2c90$724785b0$@att.net> Message-ID: On 26 October 2012 21:59, spike wrote: > JA! I have long suspected this, Stefano. All my predictions are right > on, but they never turn out that way: the future keeps going off course. > It?s the future?s fault! > I do not know if and in what degree this is tongue-in-cheek, but, hey, isn't it true in a sense? Because the "future" is not something which happens irrespective of the will, perseverance, stamina and creativity of those expected to *make* it happen... How many "impossible" feats in history have been achieved, and how many goals within reach have been failed simply owing to the inadequacy of the latter? So, I would not say perhaps that "it is the future's fault", but certainly *may* be the fault of the present when promisses or expectations have not been met. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From natasha at natasha.cc Sat Oct 27 17:06:13 2012 From: natasha at natasha.cc (Natasha Vita-More) Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2012 10:06:13 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: <201210261911.q9QJBfD2008605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201210261732.q9QHW7nb009417@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <201210261911.q9QJBfD2008605@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <00ab01cdb465$64e44330$2eacc990$@natasha.cc> David wrote: >Pulling back, across the years we've seen dubious conduct from people who were for a time integral members of our community or simply crossed our paths. >Some of whom reached mainstream prominence. Whose intersection with us can be discerned by a Google search. (I have several names in mind. Which, >were I to enumerate, would put this message into those search results.) >The answer, I suppose, is to grow to sufficient numbers that we are not tarnished by the actions of any one person, however notorious. But history has shown >where even a movement of millions was considered suspect because of one or two people. I am saddened by Bruce's situation, and feel deeply for his family. There have been seen several others known to us in the transhumanist community who have meltdowns. Many of us have a family member or friend who suffers from psychosis or addictive behaviors and know how distressing and damaging it can be. Having worked at the Home for Incurables, I witnessed many types of psychological and physiological issues that were disturbing; yet, I saw those who are sweet and kind regardless of their situation. Where it becomes extremely uncomfortable is when a person's behavior is vindictive - and I have witnessed this as well. In a state of psychosis, the person may not be responsible for this behavior; but who is to know. Which is the real person? The one who is manic and vindictive or the one who is on meds? One of the hardest things to do is to pull back when a person is being psychologically (intentionally) hurtful and out of line with reality (as it suggested by sociologists and psychologists, etc.). It does no one good to feed the illness with avoiding it or being blind to it. Here a co-dependency doubles the problem of the person who suffers, rather than actually helping the person. Anyway, this is a topic close friends and I have discussed with sincere concern and it is one that I have no answers for yet. Natasha From natasha at natasha.cc Sat Oct 27 16:52:36 2012 From: natasha at natasha.cc (Natasha Vita-More) Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2012 09:52:36 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: References: <201210261732.q9QHW7nb009417@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <00a601cdb463$78342e20$689c8a60$@natasha.cc> Don't you mean stolen money from the Singularity University? From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Bryan Bishop Sent: Friday, October 26, 2012 10:40 AM To: ExI chat list; Bryan Bishop; David Lubkin Subject: Re: [ExI] Bruce Klein On Fri, Oct 26, 2012 at 12:31 PM, David Lubkin wrote: I'm not sure what the backstory is, but this is disturbing. I think the stolen money from singinst is more disturbing. In comparison, this was harmless fun. - Bryan http://heybryan.org/ 1 512 203 0507 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From kanzure at gmail.com Sat Oct 27 18:27:46 2012 From: kanzure at gmail.com (Bryan Bishop) Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2012 13:27:46 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: <00a601cdb463$78342e20$689c8a60$@natasha.cc> References: <201210261732.q9QHW7nb009417@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <00a601cdb463$78342e20$689c8a60$@natasha.cc> Message-ID: On Sat, Oct 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM, Natasha Vita-More wrote: > Don?t you mean stolen money from the Singularity University? **** > > No, I am not aware of that story. Someone also corrected me that Bruce wasn't entirely at fault for the SIAI mishap/story, although he was definitely involved. - Bryan http://heybryan.org/ 1 512 203 0507 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From florent.berthet at gmail.com Sun Oct 28 06:18:40 2012 From: florent.berthet at gmail.com (Florent Berthet) Date: Sun, 28 Oct 2012 07:18:40 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: References: <201210261732.q9QHW7nb009417@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <00a601cdb463$78342e20$689c8a60$@natasha.cc> Message-ID: Could we have more info on that? It may be a sensitive subject to talk about but it's very important. If Bruce wasn't the only one involved in this story, I'd like to know about that. 2012/10/27 Bryan Bishop : > On Sat, Oct 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM, Natasha Vita-More > wrote: >> >> Don?t you mean stolen money from the Singularity University? > > > No, I am not aware of that story. Someone also corrected me that Bruce > wasn't entirely at fault for the SIAI mishap/story, although he was > definitely involved. > > > - Bryan > http://heybryan.org/ > 1 512 203 0507 > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From natasha at natasha.cc Mon Oct 29 17:30:04 2012 From: natasha at natasha.cc (Natasha Vita-More) Date: Mon, 29 Oct 2012 10:30:04 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: References: <201210261732.q9QHW7nb009417@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <00a601cdb463$78342e20$689c8a60$@natasha.cc> Message-ID: <000f01cdb5fb$08e07940$1aa16bc0$@natasha.cc> Not from me. I'm not knowledgeable on the scope of all this and I'd rather not speculate. What is in the news is public and that can be easily obtained. What is shielded from the public has most likely been done for a reason, and I'd like to respect their privacy. Natasha Vita-More, PhD Professor, University of Advancing Technology Chairman, Humanity+ Producer/Host, H+TV -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Florent Berthet Sent: Saturday, October 27, 2012 11:19 PM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] Bruce Klein Could we have more info on that? It may be a sensitive subject to talk about but it's very important. If Bruce wasn't the only one involved in this story, I'd like to know about that. 2012/10/27 Bryan Bishop : > On Sat, Oct 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM, Natasha Vita-More > > wrote: >> >> Don't you mean stolen money from the Singularity University? > > > No, I am not aware of that story. Someone also corrected me that Bruce > wasn't entirely at fault for the SIAI mishap/story, although he was > definitely involved. > > > - Bryan > http://heybryan.org/ > 1 512 203 0507 > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Tue Oct 30 04:25:42 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Mon, 29 Oct 2012 21:25:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] For the chemistry buffs Message-ID: I have a paper I wrote related to synthetic fuels but not dependent on power satellites. It's a proposal to use natural gas and coal to make synthetic petrochemicals but not using oil. Oddly enough it looks like it might be a profitable business. It is even remotely possible that it could be scaled down to a home based unit, though how many people could safely cope with a gasoline machine in their home is a good question. If any of you want a copy, ask. Keith From kgh1kgh2 at gmail.com Tue Oct 30 07:39:19 2012 From: kgh1kgh2 at gmail.com (Kevin G Haskell) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 03:39:19 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein Message-ID: On Oct 27, 2012, Natasha Vita-More quoted "David" as having written: "David wrote: >Pulling back, across the years we've seen dubious conduct from people who were for a time integral members of our community or simply crossed our paths. >Some of whom reached mainstream prominence. Whose intersection with us can be discerned by a Google search. (I have several names in mind. Which, >were I to enumerate, would put this message into those search results.) >The answer, I suppose, is to grow to sufficient numbers that we are not tarnished by the actions of any one person, however notorious. But history has shown >where even a movement of millions was considered suspect because of one or two people." Natasha replied: "I am saddened by Bruce's situation, and feel deeply for his family. There have been seen several others known to us in the transhumanist community who have meltdowns. Many of us have a family member or friend who suffers from psychosis or addictive behaviors and know how distressing and damaging it can be. Having worked at the Home for Incurables, I witnessed many types of psychological and physiological issues that were disturbing; yet, I saw those who are sweet and kind regardless of their situation. Where it becomes extremely uncomfortable is when a person's behavior is vindictive - and I have witnessed this as well. In a state of psychosis, the person may not be responsible for this behavior; but who is to know. Which is the real person? The one who is manic and vindictive or the one who is on meds? One of the hardest things to do is to pull back when a person is being psychologically (intentionally) hurtful and out of line with reality (as it suggested by sociologists and psychologists, etc.). It does no one good to feed the illness with avoiding it or being blind to it. Here a co-dependency doubles the problem of the person who suffers, rather than actually helping the person. Anyway, this is a topic close friends and I have discussed with sincere concern and it is one that I have no answers for yet. Natasha" On Oct 26, 2012 Bryan Bishop quoted David Lubkin as having written: "I'm not sure what the backstory is, but this is disturbing. I think the stolen money from singinst is more disturbing. In comparison, this was harmless fun." On Oct. 27, Natasha replied to Bryan Bishop: "Don't you mean stolen money from the Singularity University?" Later that same day, Bryan Bishop replied: "No, I am not aware of that story. Someone also corrected me that Bruce wasn't entirely at fault for the SIAI mishap/story, although he was definitely involved. -Bryan" On Oct. 28, 2012, Florent Berthet wrote: "Could we have more info on that? It may be a sensitive subject to talk about but it's very important. If Bruce wasn't the only one involved in this story, I'd like to know about that." For those of us who don't have any idea what happened, and based on the fact that the Singularity Summit is coming up very soon, can someone please explain, from the start, what has happened regarding: 1.) Bruce Klein, what happened to him, what he has been accused of doing? 2.) Reported theft at the SIAI "or" Sing. U. (i.e, did the wrongdoing happen at one, or both?) 3.) Other people that may be involved in wrongdoing along at either/both the SIAI or Sing. U.? 4.) Any other related information that should be available? If there has been criminal behavior or accusations about anyone regarding the operations and funding at the SIAI or Sing. U., I'm sure I speak for quite a few people when wanting to know what is going on and for it to be in the open. Can anybody provide the story and information for the rest of us out here. It would be appreciated. Thanks. -Kevin -- * Tweet me on Twitter! - @*KevinGHaskell -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Oct 30 07:40:02 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 07:40:02 +0000 Subject: [ExI] For the chemistry buffs In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 30, 2012 at 4:25 AM, Keith Henson wrote: > I have a paper I wrote related to synthetic fuels but not dependent on > power satellites. > > It's a proposal to use natural gas and coal to make synthetic > petrochemicals but not using oil. Oddly enough it looks like it might > be a profitable business. > > Did you see this news report? Revolutionary new technology that produces ?petrol from air? is being produced by a British firm, it emerged tonight. By Andrew Hough, graphic by Mark Oliver 18 Oct 2012 The ?petrol from air? technology involves taking sodium hydroxide and mixing it with carbon dioxide before "electrolysing" the sodium carbonate that it produces to form pure carbon dioxide. Hydrogen is then produced by electrolysing water vapour captured with a dehumidifier. The company, Air Fuel Synthesis, then uses the carbon dioxide and hydrogen to produce methanol which in turn is passed through a gasoline fuel reactor, creating petrol. ---------------- BillK From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Tue Oct 30 16:37:03 2012 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 09:37:03 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: DAMN!!! I am shocked to the core to say the least, since I considered Bruce Klein a good friend, who I had gotten to know over the years at various conferences. But I believe that when people are at their most unlovable, that's when they need to be shown love the most, however trite it may sound. I hope Susan is okay! John -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From kryonica at gmail.com Tue Oct 30 17:59:20 2012 From: kryonica at gmail.com (Cryonica) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 17:59:20 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <5F120B6E-4DD4-451F-8EED-ACE9307AB551@gmail.com> I am also very, very fond of Bruce and Susan and even if Bruce has done something he should not have done this will not alter my sincere sympathy for him. He is genuine transhumanist and cryonicist, a very brilliant guy who has done a lot to spread the memes of the Immortality Institute and this should be kept in mind when judging him. I am sure that if he has stolen money, then it is because he desperately needs it, possibly because being so active a transhumanist he has not had the time to work for a career as well. Like Aubrey he is too involved with the future to earn a proper living and if Susan and he are planning a family this may create a difficult situation for them. On 30 Oct 2012, at 16:37, John Grigg wrote: > DAMN!!! I am shocked to the core to say the least, since I > considered Bruce Klein a good friend, who I had gotten to know over > the years at various conferences. But I believe that when people > are at their most unlovable, that's when they need to be shown love > the most, however trite it may sound. I hope Susan is okay! > > > John > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From msd001 at gmail.com Tue Oct 30 18:21:01 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 14:21:01 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Hurricane Sandy Message-ID: On the other side of Hurricane Sandy aka Frankenstorm, I've been wondering why we still don't have better countermeasures for mitigating the damages of these so-called superstorms. Did anyone notice the anomalous path Sandy took, heading almost due West into NJ/NY (and through PA, affecting Great Lakes areas)? I wish they had covered more explanation for how that happened. I did hear one meteorologist refer to it as "unprecedented." Given the $billion+ expected damage toll, it seems to me there would be incentive to try preventing this kind of destruction. We sometimes discuss mega-engineering; I'm curious if anyone on this list has any wild* ideas for ways to have either diverted or disrupted Hurricane Sandy before landfall. * simple ideas would be welcomed too, though the wild ones are generally more fun. From gsantostasi at gmail.com Tue Oct 30 18:43:51 2012 From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 13:43:51 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: <5F120B6E-4DD4-451F-8EED-ACE9307AB551@gmail.com> References: <5F120B6E-4DD4-451F-8EED-ACE9307AB551@gmail.com> Message-ID: I admire the support of the community for Bruce (that I don't know personally) in this difficult moment. I approve of the idea of giving people second and third chances and not to be too judgmental. But to continue to repeat that "he did it because he needed badly the money" is something we should not do. I think the transhumanism movement is already something that people consider suspicious if not evil per se (often people point to some transhumanists connections with satanist organizations), while we see ourselves as the heralds of a better world (not just from a material point of view but also cognitive, moral and spiritual). Saying things like "he did it because he needed the money" seems almost justifying a thief's actions that I'm sure it is not the impression we want to give. Giovanni On Tue, Oct 30, 2012 at 12:59 PM, Cryonica wrote: > I am also very, very fond of Bruce and Susan and even if Bruce has done > something he should not have done this will not alter my sincere sympathy > for him. He is genuine transhumanist and cryonicist, a very brilliant guy > who has done a lot to spread the memes of the Immortality Institute and > this should be kept in mind when judging him. I am sure that if he has > stolen money, then it is because he desperately needs it, possibly because > being so active a transhumanist he has not had the time to work for a > career as well. Like Aubrey he is too involved with the future to earn a > proper living and if Susan and he are planning a family this may create a > difficult situation for them. > > On 30 Oct 2012, at 16:37, John Grigg wrote: > > DAMN!!! I am shocked to the core to say the least, since I considered >> Bruce Klein a good friend, who I had gotten to know over the years at >> various conferences. But I believe that when people are at their most >> unlovable, that's when they need to be shown love the most, however trite >> it may sound. I hope Susan is okay! >> >> >> John >> ______________________________**_________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/**mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-**chat >> > > ______________________________**_________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/**mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-**chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Oct 30 19:21:33 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 19:21:33 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Hurricane Sandy In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 30, 2012 at 6:21 PM, Mike Dougherty wrote: > On the other side of Hurricane Sandy aka Frankenstorm, I've been > wondering why we still don't have better countermeasures for > mitigating the damages of these so-called superstorms. Did anyone > notice the anomalous path Sandy took, heading almost due West into > NJ/NY (and through PA, affecting Great Lakes areas)? > > I wish they had covered more explanation for how that happened. I did > hear one meteorologist refer to it as "unprecedented." > > Predicting the path of a hurricane is not an easy task. They have improved their computer models and data-collection a lot in the last year. IEEE has a good article: You are right to say that usually hurricanes run up the east coast and Sandy was unusual in turning west into New York. This was caused by a mid-Atlantic high pressure bubble that pushed Sandy to the west. But the models didn't agree early on. Some had Sandy being pushed to the east, so there was uncertainty at first. BillK From shannonvyff at yahoo.com Tue Oct 30 19:45:47 2012 From: shannonvyff at yahoo.com (Shannon) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 12:45:47 -0700 (PDT) Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <1351626347.98573.YahooMailNeo@web161903.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> I'm only aware of Bruce having used credit card skimming devices to steal money from random people, and thought two other employees were implicated in having stolen $118,000.00 from Singularity Institute. > > >I do not know anything other than what has been posted?publicly-this is the most recent thing I've seen about Bruce's case:?http://blog.al.com/live/2012/08/silverhill_man_gets_time_serve.html > > >Shannon Vyff > >---------------------------------------------------------------------- > >Message: 1 >Date: Mon, 29 Oct 2012 10:30:04 -0700 >From: "Natasha Vita-More" >To: "'ExI chat list'" >Subject: Re: [ExI] Bruce Klein >Message-ID: <000f01cdb5fb$08e07940$1aa16bc0$@natasha.cc> >Content-Type: text/plain;??? charset="us-ascii" > >Not from me. I'm not knowledgeable on the scope of all this and I'd rather >not speculate. What is in the news is public and that can be easily >obtained.? What is shielded from the public has most likely been done for a >reason, and I'd like to respect their privacy. > > >Natasha Vita-More, PhD > >Professor, University of Advancing Technology >Chairman, Humanity+ >Producer/Host, H+TV > > >-----Original Message----- >From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org >[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Florent Berthet >Sent: Saturday, October 27, 2012 11:19 PM >To: ExI chat list >Subject: Re: [ExI] Bruce Klein > >Could we have more info on that? It may be a sensitive subject to talk about >but it's very important. If Bruce wasn't the only one involved in this >story, I'd like to know about that. > > >2012/10/27 Bryan Bishop : >> On Sat, Oct 27, 2012 at 11:52 AM, Natasha Vita-More >> >> wrote: >>> >>> Don't you mean stolen money from the Singularity University? >> >> >> No, I am not aware of that story. Someone also corrected me that Bruce >> wasn't entirely at fault for the SIAI mishap/story, although he was >> definitely involved. >> >> >> - Bryan >> http://heybryan.org/ >> 1 512 203 0507 >> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > >_______________________________________________ >extropy-chat mailing list >extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Tue Oct 30 20:19:07 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 16:19:07 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Hurricane Sandy In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 30, 2012 at 3:21 PM, BillK wrote: > On Tue, Oct 30, 2012 at 6:21 PM, Mike Dougherty wrote: >> I wish they had covered more explanation for how that happened. I did >> hear one meteorologist refer to it as "unprecedented." > > Predicting the path of a hurricane is not an easy task. They have > improved their computer models and data-collection a lot in the last > year. > IEEE has a good article: > I understand that modelling a hurricane is no small task. It's the basic definition of a complex system. The behavior of people reporting and reacting to those models is also a problem to be solved. I am happy to have over-prepared for a prolonged outage that only lasted 12 hours (I've had 3-4 day outages, so a half-day event is thankfully short). However, the likelihood that proper vigilance can be maintained past a few hysterical non-events is pretty low. If the forecasters continue to cry wolf (or "omg, superstorm, run away!!!") I'd expect uninformed masses to assume the next big storm will also be uneventful. Since we still have so much electricity delivered from pole to pole (are they still called telephone poles?) we import "linemen" to inspect the wires for the source of outages affecting, in this case, millions of subscribers. Interestingly, there are very few communities that do not subscribe to 'electricity' I don't understand why our electric grid isn't smart enough to tell the provider where the outage exists. I'm pretty sure our ISPs know or can find out exactly where each packet is headed on their network. NYC subways are flooded. They aren't yet predicting when they'll be restored. I'm sure someone thought to use the FDNY pumping trucks... but how much hose do they have, how much volume per second can it move, how much water does it take to fill the New York subway? Even if you bring in naval fireboats, you'd still need quite a bit of plumbing to reach into the subway in order to keep supply to those pumps. Does NYC have a public disaster plan? I tried Google but don't know what the magic word(s) are to get to anything other than marketing and directions for how to make a personal disaster plan. I was really looking for preemptive strikes against the hurricane itself. If cloud-seeding can make rain, is there a similar something that can artificially/manually downgrade a hurricane? From giulio at gmail.com Tue Oct 30 19:31:00 2012 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 20:31:00 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: References: <5F120B6E-4DD4-451F-8EED-ACE9307AB551@gmail.com> Message-ID: Giovanni, I don't know if this applies to this specific case, but the majority of thieves steal because they need money to eat. Only some thieves steal because of greed. Often they don't go to jail, and reach top positions instead. On Tue, Oct 30, 2012 at 7:43 PM, Giovanni Santostasi wrote: > I admire the support of the community for Bruce (that I don't know > personally) in this difficult moment. I approve of the idea of giving people > second and third chances and not to be too judgmental. But to continue to > repeat that "he did it because he needed badly the money" is something we > should not do. > > I think the transhumanism movement is already something that people consider > suspicious if not evil per se (often people point to some transhumanists > connections with satanist organizations), while we see ourselves as the > heralds of a better world (not just from a material point of view but also > cognitive, moral and spiritual). > > Saying things like "he did it because he needed the money" seems almost > justifying a thief's actions that I'm sure it is not the impression we want > to give. > > Giovanni > > > > > > > On Tue, Oct 30, 2012 at 12:59 PM, Cryonica wrote: >> >> I am also very, very fond of Bruce and Susan and even if Bruce has done >> something he should not have done this will not alter my sincere sympathy >> for him. He is genuine transhumanist and cryonicist, a very brilliant guy >> who has done a lot to spread the memes of the Immortality Institute and this >> should be kept in mind when judging him. I am sure that if he has stolen >> money, then it is because he desperately needs it, possibly because being so >> active a transhumanist he has not had the time to work for a career as well. >> Like Aubrey he is too involved with the future to earn a proper living and >> if Susan and he are planning a family this may create a difficult situation >> for them. >> >> On 30 Oct 2012, at 16:37, John Grigg wrote: >> >>> DAMN!!! I am shocked to the core to say the least, since I considered >>> Bruce Klein a good friend, who I had gotten to know over the years at >>> various conferences. But I believe that when people are at their most >>> unlovable, that's when they need to be shown love the most, however trite it >>> may sound. I hope Susan is okay! >>> >>> >>> John >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From msd001 at gmail.com Tue Oct 30 20:27:10 2012 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 16:27:10 -0400 Subject: [ExI] [names in subject line] Message-ID: I thought I had heard the name before, but didn't know him. From the thread with his name in the subject line, I've gotten the impression he is somewhere ranging from "that great guy" to "pretty criminal" to "mental breakdown" I still don't know the guy, but now I have a great deal of second-hand information to ignore if/when I ever do have an opportunity to engage in discussion. If the group is going to continue to discuss events around particular individuals, can we at least remove his name from the subject line (per list etiquette)? Thanks From pharos at gmail.com Tue Oct 30 20:47:47 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 20:47:47 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Hurricane Sandy In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 30, 2012 at 8:19 PM, Mike Dougherty wrote: > I understand that modelling a hurricane is no small task. It's the > basic definition of a complex system. > I was really looking for preemptive strikes against the hurricane > itself. If cloud-seeding can make rain, is there a similar something > that can artificially/manually downgrade a hurricane? > No. Or, at least, not yet. They've been trying since the 1940s. And actually seeding hurricanes. But it didn't work. There are new ideas being proposed, though. But it might not always be a good idea. Sometimes a hurricane is needed to break a long drought season. Changing rainfall patterns could be expected to get complaints from areas deprived of 'their' rainfall. BillK From atymes at gmail.com Tue Oct 30 19:28:34 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 12:28:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Hurricane Sandy In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: You mean like solar-powered orbital lasers to heat the ocean (or at least the cloud cover) to influence the storm's path? Though you'd need to pump a lot of energy in to have any significant effect. A fully developed hurricane gives off around 50 terawatts of heat energy; the record-highest laser outputs are about 10 times that, and tropical depressions may be 5 terawatts. (Nuking hurricanes has likewise been suggested. Aside from the problem of creating radioactive hurricanes, h-bombs - as energetic as they are - are simply way too tiny. It'd be like trying to stop a van with an average feather.) Speaking of energy, another idea is to deploy a large number of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion systems near areas of tropical depression formation. These systems exploit the difference between warm surface water and cold deep water to run a heat engine. They're not very efficient - very much an early-stage technology for energy production - but they could perhaps be optimized to quickly cool the surface of some large expanse of water, generating a bit of electricity as a byproduct. Unfortunately, this would easily be a multi-billion dollar project: impossible to get funded without decades of work and government involvement. Deploying a large floating wind farm to eat up forming depressions is another idea, but runs into the same financial issue - though wind might cost less, and wind power is more developed. This might be more feasible. It would likely be operated by the US Navy - which service has proven amenable to ideas like this in recent years. On Tue, Oct 30, 2012 at 11:21 AM, Mike Dougherty wrote: > On the other side of Hurricane Sandy aka Frankenstorm, I've been > wondering why we still don't have better countermeasures for > mitigating the damages of these so-called superstorms. Did anyone > notice the anomalous path Sandy took, heading almost due West into > NJ/NY (and through PA, affecting Great Lakes areas)? > > I wish they had covered more explanation for how that happened. I did > hear one meteorologist refer to it as "unprecedented." > > Given the $billion+ expected damage toll, it seems to me there would > be incentive to try preventing this kind of destruction. > > We sometimes discuss mega-engineering; I'm curious if anyone on this > list has any wild* ideas for ways to have either diverted or disrupted > Hurricane Sandy before landfall. > > > > * simple ideas would be welcomed too, though the wild ones are > generally more fun. > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From spike66 at att.net Tue Oct 30 22:20:17 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 15:20:17 -0700 Subject: [ExI] [names in subject line] In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <00b301cdb6ec$be2eaf00$3a8c0d00$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty >... >...If the group is going to continue to discuss events around particular individuals, can we at least remove his name from the subject line (per list etiquette)? Thanks _______________________________________________ Thanks Mike. We have been extremely open minded about so many things posted here, but do put yourself in the shoes of the guy whose name is in the subject line. spike From pharos at gmail.com Tue Oct 30 22:58:45 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 22:58:45 +0000 Subject: [ExI] [names in subject line] In-Reply-To: <00b301cdb6ec$be2eaf00$3a8c0d00$@att.net> References: <00b301cdb6ec$be2eaf00$3a8c0d00$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 30, 2012 at 10:20 PM, spike wrote: > >>... On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty >>...If the group is going to continue to discuss events around particular > individuals, can we at least remove his name from the subject line (per list > etiquette)? Thanks > _______________________________________________ > > Thanks Mike. We have been extremely open minded about so many things posted > here, but do put yourself in the shoes of the guy whose name is in the > subject line. > > While I agree with the rule not to use names in Subject lines, it has been out-dated by modern search technology. If a name is anywhere in the message, then a search will bring up all posts containing that name. For a simple example, if you wanted to find out if Brian and xology were ever mentioned together then a simple AND search brings up all the cases. BillK From lubkin at unreasonable.com Wed Oct 31 00:54:46 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 20:54:46 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Impending celebrity cryonicist Message-ID: <201210310134.q9V1Y5BA004844@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Simon Cowell was on The Tonight Show last night, and acknowledged that he was very interested in cryonic suspension and was looking into signing up. -- David. From lubkin at unreasonable.com Wed Oct 31 00:51:36 2012 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 20:51:36 -0400 Subject: [ExI] [names in subject line] In-Reply-To: References: <00b301cdb6ec$be2eaf00$3a8c0d00$@att.net> Message-ID: <201210310134.q9V1YBeP015080@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Spike wrote: > Thanks Mike. We have been extremely open minded about so many things posted > here, but do put yourself in the shoes of the guy whose name is in the > subject line. There have been incidents where a thread began with someone's name in a subject line and drifted into something they wouldn't have appreciated having been mentioned in the same breath. But this thread hasn't drifted particularly. I don't see how someone's name in a subject line should be any more unacceptable than someone's name in the body of a message. I don't see how a thread about him is inappropriate. We're not gossiping about rumors. It's about the admitted misconduct of one of our own. He pled guilty to criminal acts that we'd all agree are malum in se. And I can think of at least five other people in our community whose conduct -- on-list, off-list but in the >H world, or in public spheres -- was controversial enough to warrant discussion, which did take place here, naming names. If this list shouldn't be the place for such topics, perhaps because its archives are public, there should be a private one where it would be appropriate. -- David. From gsantostasi at gmail.com Wed Oct 31 01:49:07 2012 From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 20:49:07 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Impending celebrity cryonicist In-Reply-To: <201210310134.q9V1Y5BA004844@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201210310134.q9V1Y5BA004844@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: Not sure he is the best celebrity to bring some attention to this but I guess there is no such thing as bad publicity. Giovanni On Tue, Oct 30, 2012 at 7:54 PM, David Lubkin wrote: > Simon Cowell was on The Tonight Show last night, and acknowledged > that he was very interested in cryonic suspension and was looking > into signing up. > > > -- David. > > ______________________________**_________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/**mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-**chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Wed Oct 31 02:02:26 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 19:02:26 -0700 Subject: [ExI] [names in subject line] In-Reply-To: <201210310134.q9V1YBeP015080@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <00b301cdb6ec$be2eaf00$3a8c0d00$@att.net> <201210310134.q9V1YBeP015080@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <002b01cdb70b$c6edd110$54c97330$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of David Lubkin >...Subject: Re: [ExI] [names in subject line] Spike wrote: >>... Thanks Mike. We have been extremely open minded about so many things > posted here, but do put yourself in the shoes of the guy whose name > is in the subject line. >...There have been incidents where a thread began with someone's name in a subject line and drifted into something they wouldn't have appreciated having been mentioned in the same breath... -- David. Ja, that was why I didn't say anything until now: it stayed on topic. But I will be out for a few days and I could see how this one could easily turn into something even a wrongdoer shouldn't have his name to-attached. >...But this thread hasn't drifted particularly... Granted, and I consider it fair game so far. I will leave it to your collective judgment: if you really think a name should be in the subject line, I won't call a foul on it or toss anyone in the bit bucket. I don't like it, but there is plenty of stuff written in this forum that I don't like, and it is within the agreed-upon guidelines. I like having an open list, with suggestions rather than rules. I recognize that philosophy has its costs, but also its benefits. Carry on, lads! spike From spike66 at att.net Wed Oct 31 03:31:39 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2012 20:31:39 -0700 Subject: [ExI] political fun and games Message-ID: <004a01cdb718$3d227960$b7676c20$@att.net> We in the states are going to be choosing a president a week from today, but we likely won't know who won a week from tomorrow. Reasoning: it is starting to look more and more like whoever wins in Ohio wins. But Ohio has a feature where an automatic recount is triggered if the vote is within half a percent, and current polls suggest it is that close in Ohio, in which case they need to count all the provisional ballots, which cannot be complete until ten days after the election so they have time to be mailed and counted. In any case, over my strenuous objections, there are still electric voting machines in some places. The US government once again ignored my direct commands to get rid of those things. So now we have this big storm which has knocked out power in many places on the east coast, and here are these fools with the voting machines that may not have the power up in time. So that's what they get for not listening to me. Funny aside: the White House press secretary today was asked if the president has the authority to postpone the election. He replied that he didn't know. I found that answer hilarious, but of course I have a weird sense of humor. If presidents had the authority to postpone elections, the US would be on president number about 15 right now instead of 44. In any case, I am not getting my hopes up. Even if Gary Johnson were to somehow win Ohio, it is extremely likely one of those other two fellers will win anyway. Stay tuned for fun and games, such as the possibility of a full-blown constitutional crisis. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Wed Oct 31 07:06:39 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2012 00:06:39 -0700 Subject: [ExI] political fun and games In-Reply-To: <004a01cdb718$3d227960$b7676c20$@att.net> References: <004a01cdb718$3d227960$b7676c20$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Oct 30, 2012 at 8:31 PM, spike wrote: > it is > starting to look more and more like whoever wins in Ohio wins. The state whose government has been pulling strong and legally questionable means to swing the vote Republican? It's not the vote that counts, it's who counts the votes. I'm assuming Ohio goes to Romney - but most electoral vote projections I've seen recently, even with that modification, still have Obama in the lead. > So now we have this big storm which > has knocked out power in many places on the east coast, and here are these > fools with the voting machines that may not have the power up in time. Which may affect New York's voting. Upstate NY is mostly red, and was affected much less than New York City. From charlie.stross at gmail.com Wed Oct 31 10:20:50 2012 From: charlie.stross at gmail.com (Charlie Stross) Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2012 10:20:50 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Hurricane Sandy In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <5DE85136-2D42-4610-A00C-9AD558058489@gmail.com> On 30 Oct 2012, at 20:19, Mike Dougherty wrote: > > NYC subways are flooded. They aren't yet predicting when they'll be > restored. I'm sure someone thought to use the FDNY pumping trucks... > but how much hose do they have, how much volume per second can it > move, how much water does it take to fill the New York subway? Even > if you bring in naval fireboats, you'd still need quite a bit of > plumbing to reach into the subway in order to keep supply to those > pumps. Does NYC have a public disaster plan? I tried Google but > don't know what the magic word(s) are to get to anything other than > marketing and directions for how to make a personal disaster plan. Per news reports I've seen in the UK, MTA commissioned a report on mega-hurricane disaster of Sandy proportions a couple of years ago, but hadn't upped their maximum anticipated disaster to match -- Sandy exceeded their "worst case" assumptions, and even after they pump everything dry and repair the damage, Sandy-proofing the subway against a future hurricane of identical proportions will probably cost billions. > I was really looking for preemptive strikes against the hurricane > itself. If cloud-seeding can make rain, is there a similar something > that can artificially/manually downgrade a hurricane? The energy density of a hurricane is staggering, and it's driven by humidity and temperature gradients over an area the size of a sub-continent. It's not immediately obvious that we can do anything about this short of large-scale geoengineering to reduce global energy inputs. (It's not "global warming" so much as "global absorbing-more-energy-in-a-dynamic-system", resulting in wilder fluctuations and more extreme weather events. Such as Sandy.) -- Charlie From anders at aleph.se Wed Oct 31 12:45:23 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2012 12:45:23 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Hacking the president's DNA Message-ID: <50911D63.1000908@aleph.se> A very interesting article about biohacking, crowdsourcing, security and many other yummy topics: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/11/hacking-the-presidents-dna/309147/# I love the idea of opensourcing the presidential DNA for security reasons. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From anders at aleph.se Wed Oct 31 12:45:10 2012 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2012 12:45:10 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Hurricane Sandy In-Reply-To: <5DE85136-2D42-4610-A00C-9AD558058489@gmail.com> References: <5DE85136-2D42-4610-A00C-9AD558058489@gmail.com> Message-ID: <50911D56.2080406@aleph.se> On 31/10/2012 10:20, Charlie Stross wrote: > Per news reports I've seen in the UK, MTA commissioned a report on mega-hurricane disaster of Sandy proportions a couple of years ago, but hadn't upped their maximum anticipated disaster to match -- Sandy exceeded their "worst case" assumptions, and even after they pump everything dry and repair the damage, Sandy-proofing the subway against a future hurricane of identical proportions will probably cost billions. One of the (mathematically) cool and (practically) horrifying aspects of long tail disasters is that "if it is bad, it is likely far worse than you thought". One can never make a bad enough worst case scenario. [ If you have a damage threshold T, the exceedance X-T of how much worse the actual disaster X is, will have an expectation that is on the order of T or larger - when bad things happen, they tend to be really bad, not just a millimeter above the levee. ] You can reduce many risks by adding big safeguards, but that is just the first step. Security in depth, resiliency, ability to quickly recover etc. matter a lot more than a high dam. New York will recover because it is a rich city full of people willing and able to work and pay for fixing it, but no doubt there are ways of making it even more resilient. >> I was really looking for preemptive strikes against the hurricane >> itself. If cloud-seeding can make rain, is there a similar something >> that can artificially/manually downgrade a hurricane? > The energy density of a hurricane is staggering, and it's driven by humidity and temperature gradients over an area the size of a sub-continent. It's not immediately obvious that we can do anything about this short of large-scale geoengineering to reduce global energy inputs. (It's not "global warming" so much as "global absorbing-more-energy-in-a-dynamic-system", resulting in wilder fluctuations and more extreme weather events. Such as Sandy.) Local OTEC cooling has been mentioned. One could go to the megascale "what could possibly go wrong" approach with orbital solar shades too. An intermediary approach would be JoSHs nanotech based climate control clouds (floating minimachines that regulate albedo and reflectance). None of these are enough to stop an ongoing hurricane (I think), but they might be enough to do chaos control. The neat thing about chaotic dynamical systems is that they are unstable and happy to weer into other directions if given just the right push. You need to measure the situation very well, simulate it very fast, and keep on pushing in order to get the effect. You will not be able to achieve perfect control - this is a probabilistic method - but it would likely reduce risks a lot. At the price of having the Atlantic Weather Control Board responsible for the inevitable slipups *even if they do a perfect job*. -- Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Wed Oct 31 14:41:06 2012 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2012 07:41:06 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Hurricane Sandy Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 31, 2012 at 4:17 AM, Charlie Stross wrote: snip > The energy density of a hurricane is staggering, and it's driven by humidity and temperature gradients over an area the size of a sub-continent. It's not immediately obvious that we can do anything about this short of large-scale geoengineering to reduce global energy inputs. (It's not "global warming" so much as "global absorbing-more-energy-in-a-dynamic-system", resulting in wilder fluctuations and more extreme weather events. Such as Sandy.) There are two approaches here. One is to run down the CO2 in the air. It seems to be possible to end the use of fossil fuels while making us all much richer in a couple of decades. I have rattled on about various approaches for years and finally hit on one that's not hard to hard to analyze early this year. Offered to send list members the paper that went off for peer review, but there has been very little interest here. (Offer is still open.) The other one, one that takes much the same space transport hardware to get started, is sunshades in L1. Google for Robert Kennedy III and Dyson Dots to find it. Robert is an old friend and the approaches are complimentary. Keith From atymes at gmail.com Wed Oct 31 15:28:39 2012 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2012 08:28:39 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Hacking the president's DNA In-Reply-To: <50911D63.1000908@aleph.se> References: <50911D63.1000908@aleph.se> Message-ID: They fail to make the case, though. Even if some illicit groups might get copies of the President's DNA, the only actual benefit among those listed is monitoring over time - and if there are major changes, it's probably too late. Leaking the DNA is unlikely to provide that much of a media storm (and in any case, said leak would "justify" the need for more of a police state - hardly something that recent administrations object to), while red team/blue team testing can be done with anyone's DNA. On Wed, Oct 31, 2012 at 5:45 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > A very interesting article about biohacking, crowdsourcing, security and > many other yummy topics: > > http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/11/hacking-the-presidents-dna/309147/# > > I love the idea of opensourcing the presidential DNA for security reasons. > > > -- > Anders Sandberg, > Future of Humanity Institute > Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From natasha at natasha.cc Wed Oct 31 15:45:42 2012 From: natasha at natasha.cc (Natasha Vita-More) Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2012 08:45:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Impending celebrity cryonicist In-Reply-To: <201210310134.q9V1Y5BA004844@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201210310134.q9V1Y5BA004844@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <00a401cdb77e$de7feb60$9b7fc220$@natasha.cc> Got to love this guy. Natasha Vita-More, PhD Professor, University of Advancing Technology Chairman, Humanity+ Producer/Host, H+TV -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of David Lubkin Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2012 5:55 PM To: Extropy Chat Subject: [ExI] Impending celebrity cryonicist Simon Cowell was on The Tonight Show last night, and acknowledged that he was very interested in cryonic suspension and was looking into signing up. -- David. _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From stefano.vaj at gmail.com Wed Oct 31 15:25:11 2012 From: stefano.vaj at gmail.com (Stefano Vaj) Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2012 16:25:11 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Bruce Klein In-Reply-To: References: <5F120B6E-4DD4-451F-8EED-ACE9307AB551@gmail.com> Message-ID: On 30 October 2012 19:43, Giovanni Santostasi wrote: > I think the transhumanism movement is already something that people > consider suspicious if not evil per se (often people point to some > transhumanists connections with satanist organizations), while we see > ourselves as the heralds of a better world (not just from a material point > of view but also cognitive, moral and spiritual). > Hey, even in satanist organisations theft or embezzlement of organisational funds is best avoided, be it just for obvious practical reasons. Guessing that mitigating circumstances may exist depending on personal knowledge of the perpetrator certainly does not imply that one should condone such conducts. -- Stefano Vaj -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Wed Oct 31 19:05:52 2012 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2012 12:05:52 -0700 Subject: [ExI] satanist ethics, was: names in subject lines... was: something else before that Message-ID: <010401cdb79a$bfe38ce0$3faaa6a0$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Stefano Vaj Subject: Re: [ExI] Bruce Klein On 30 October 2012 19:43, Giovanni Santostasi wrote: >>. se (often people point to some transhumanists connections with satanist organizations), while we see ourselves as the heralds of a better world (not just from a material point of view but also cognitive, moral and spiritual). >.Hey, even in satanist organisations theft or embezzlement of organisational funds is best avoided, be it just for obvious practical reasons. >.Guessing that mitigating circumstances may exist depending on personal knowledge of the perpetrator certainly does not imply that one should condone such conducts. -- Stefano Vaj Agree fully. This is a good example of what I was whining about yesterday. We have a case where this discussion could easily go off on an extended discussion of ethics among atheist and Satanist organizations, or any of a dozen ideas Stefano's comment gives me. But we would have it all under the subject label of Bruce Klein. >.Hey, even in satanist organisations. I can speak for myself on this only, but after I came out of fundamentalist Christianity, to agnosticism and eventually atheism (with a lower case a) I found myself walking ever more circumspectly than before, rather than less. There were a few things that were no longer sins, blasphemy for instance. But most of the ethical framework stays in place. We atheists can even continue to call wrongdoing sins if we wish, and if we don't worry about the religious connotation of the term. For instance, even after religion is gone, lying and theft are still sins, cheating on your spouse is still a sin. Rather, these are still sins in my book, and I am as flaming atheist as anyone. (Hey cool, lets have a contest to see who is the most sincere unbeliever.) Religion goes, ethical sensibility stays. Being a mean evil bastard is still a sin. Killing is still a sin definitely. The difference now is I no longer have the option of getting down on my knees and talking to the ceiling, asking some imaginary supernatural Santa Clause to forgive me. I must carry my own sins on my own back, all the way to the edge of the dewar, and that sack of sins can be heavy indeed. My point: atheism has its costs. It has benefits to go with it, and these benefits outweigh the costs. I think atheism is the truth, and I love truth. I love all true things, even if the truth is not loveable. Truth outranks happiness. Truth has evidence and reason. I like evidence, evidence is my friend. Reason is my friend. Even if I acknowledge that I was happier as a religious guy, I do not go back, for I love true things. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Wed Oct 31 19:45:18 2012 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2012 19:45:18 +0000 Subject: [ExI] satanist ethics, was: names in subject lines... was: something else before that In-Reply-To: <010401cdb79a$bfe38ce0$3faaa6a0$@att.net> References: <010401cdb79a$bfe38ce0$3faaa6a0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Wed, Oct 31, 2012 at 7:05 PM, spike wrote: > Religion goes, ethical sensibility stays. Being a mean evil bastard is > still a sin. Killing is still a sin definitely. The difference now is I no > longer have the option of getting down on my knees and talking to the > ceiling, asking some imaginary supernatural Santa Clause to forgive me. I > must carry my own sins on my own back, all the way to the edge of the dewar, > and that sack of sins can be heavy indeed. > > I think you will find that there are plenty of mean evil bastards who call themselves religious. There are plenty of religious behaviours that I would call 'sins'. Don't let them define the terms of the discussion. Whether you are religious or atheist is not relevant to bad social behaviours. BillK