[ExI] riots again

[Mirco Romanato]

Il 03/10/2012 18:40, David Lubkin ha scritto:
> Mirco wrote:
>
>> Elimination of oil will cause the fall of Islam.
>
> You're overstating the case. 80% of Muslims don't live in
> Arab countries.

The majority of Christians don't live in the West too.

> Not all substantially Muslim countries have oil.
> Not all substantially Muslim countries have nothing to offer
> but oil.

The point is the domino effect.
If some important Islamic country (like Iran or Egypt) lose its ability 
to police people and enforce Islam monopoly of religion there, the 
people could start to openly leave Islam.
It would be a market to grab from eager competitors (like Evangelicals 
or local Christians or Zoroastrians or whatever).
But if Islam show its inability to monopolize its followers, others 
could be emboldened to go against the establishment in their countries.
When all your capital is about strength, showing weakness is an invite 
to attack.

In Iran Mosque attendance is like 2% of the people. The problem is the 
2% have weapons and the 98% is unarmed. The 2% is organized, the 98% is 
unorganized. If the 2% show too much weakness, the 98% will swarm them.

We will see what will happen in Egypt in the next few months as their 
money reserve dry up and they are unable to pay for all their food imports.

> But it's true enough for the combination of Arab + Muslim + oil,
> although you're neglecting the billions of dollars worth of
> mineral reserves they have beyond oil.

Egypt alone lose 1-2 billions every month importing food. Their reserves 
are at 6 billions. So they have something like 3-6 months before they 
are completely out of money. If they do, they need to half their food 
imports. So they will have a 25% deficit in their current caloric input. 
Given the majority of the people live with the government subsides for 
food and cooking gas, this is no good for them.
This will force a lot of people to starve and will make the fertility 
rate plummet even faster. There will be a lot of chaos when people skip 
three meals in a row.

> A general question about jurisdictions that have substantial
> oil revenues (Kuwait, Venezuela, Alberta, Alaska, etc.) is are
> they doing anything useful for their future prosperity with their
> current revenue. Beyond overseas investment into other
> businesses, like buying Marks & Sparks.

They are trying, sometimes.
But I don't understand how they could succeed when their society, 
because of Islam, make free inquiry and innovation a capital sin.

> For example, building a modern, sensible transportation
> network. Broadband to every home. Subsidizing their citizens'
> acquiring skills in science, engineering, and medicine.
> Creating a world-class tech university and spinning off a
> local Silicon [   ].

> Versus siphoning off money to Swiss banks, buying gold
> faucets, providing a guaranteed income to an idle citizenry,
> building showy artifacts that serve no purpose other than
> trying to demonstrate that they're rich and modern.

The problem are the social institutions.
If they stifle innovation, risk taking, private property rights, 
fundamental human rights, a fancy new transportation system will not 
last long and will not be very useful.

Mirco