[ExI] Consequentialist world improvement

spike spike66 at att.net
Sun Oct 7 15:33:09 UTC 2012



From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg

>.Extreme tail risks do matter, and can sometimes totally dominate the
everyday risks.-- Anders Sandberg,

Extreme tail risks drive design in aerospace, where you can't access your
stuff to repair or replace it and need three nines reliability.  But there
is another important subtlety: extreme tail risks drive mass marketing.  The
well-known marketing principle is: sex sells.  But a more insightful
marketing principle adds the following corollaries: sex sells, but death
sells better.
Example: a friend posted me and asked if he should dump his stock in Smith
and Wesson Firearms.  I advised him to dump it all on the risk that Mr.
Romney gets elected, the perceived risk of gun control fades, the stock
drops, buy it all back at a discount.  
The perception of death risk is more important than death risk.  If you can
shape and control that perception, you make a buttload of money, get elected
to any political office you want, steer the masses, the world is yours.
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