[ExI] Convergence

[BillK]

On Wed, Oct 24, 2012 at 9:36 AM, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
<snip>
> The chapter on morphological analysis was interesting to me. It is a
> systematic way of going through alternative approaches to solving a problem
> (for example, how to build an electric motor), usually ending up with a
> combinatorial explosion of possibilities of course, but still a neat way of
> seeing what could be done differently. Especially if you use it to explore
> "nearby" different approaches (change one aspect of how things are done) it
> both seems helpful and gives an interesting way of quantifying the
> technological frontier.
>
>

What I see as the main problem in forecasting is forecasting society behaviour.

Most forecasting takes one technical problem, like life extension, or
starships, and runs with it. Trying to solve all the technical steps
needed to achieve the objective and estimate the time it would take.
All that is necessary, of course, but not sufficient.

These projects are not living in isolation. The whole of society is
growing and changing all around.
A project might be made totally irrelevant by some other development.
Teleports would kill all transport projects.
If society uploads to computronium, starships are likely to be
abandoned. And so on.

On a lesser scale. simple resource shortage, like money, oil, food,
could cause projects to be seriously delayed or cancelled.

So, after the technical phase of planning, I would like to see a phase
of 'reality' planning added on.

People asking whether the project is politically feasible, supported
by enough backing, not opposed by strong opponents, and likely to
receive continued support and funding for the duration, taking into
account possible wars, disasters, famines, etc.


BillK