[ExI] puzzle for intrade fans

[Mike Dougherty]

On Thu, Oct 25, 2012 at 11:58 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> Ohhh there is money to be made here, big money, scores of dollars, possibly
> hundreds.

How much does your public musing on the subject confound the algorithm
you're trying to discover?

How do you know I'm not a half-step ahead of you and adjusting my
strategy every time you get close to figuring it out?

There have been a lot of countermeasures to mitigate collusion in
gaming systems (and at the end of the day, it's all some form of game
theory, right?)

Has there been equal study in "partnering" with an unseen hand?  Is
the paranoid gambler more or less successful than a causal player?
I'm confident the twitchy monkey ran away from perceived danger that
may not have existed 99+% of the time, but since he also managed to
escape that 1% that killed his competition we're all descended from
that paranoid prediction model.  Whether you find a way to overcome it
in your own thinking or find a way to exploit the crowd behavior there
is an advantage to be had.