[ExI] "Crypto Coin Law" vs "Law of the Crypto Coin"?

[Brent Allsop]

Hi Anders,

I'm trying to tell if you think 'law' is not a good name for the camp 
http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2, but I can't yet tell.

On 8/6/2013 6:12 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> On 2013-08-06 12:10, Brent Allsop wrote:
>>
>> What do you think about the certainty of economic growth?  Do you 
>> think this is as reliable as something like "Moore's law" and/or 
>> "Kurzweil's law of accelerating returns"?
>
> Empirically, a 2% growth rate is what economists call a "stylized 
> fact" - it seems to be roughly true, although the details are 
> bedevilled. When I looked at long term historical data like Angus 
> Maddison's data set they seemed to back it up over at least a 
> millennial, possibly multimillennial timescale.

Exactly.  Gordon, would you also agree?
>>   If you think economic growth is deserving of the term 'law', then 
>> is it not, then, a mathematical certainty that, if the economy grows 
>> exponentially, then the demand for any limited currency in that 
>> economy must accelerate, exponentially?
>
> Demand for a limited resource does not always grow with the economy 
> and population. Consider the collapse of the stamp market as the hobby 
> fell out of fashion.

To me, this is just more mistaken noise, and you are not yet fully 
understanding what our camp is talking about.  This certainly doesn't 
yet convince me of anything.  Primitively, economies used managed fiat 
currencies as a method of value exchange.  In general, the managers of 
these currencies, to the benefit of their government, expended the 
supply to keep up with the demand of an exponentially growing economy, 
so the fiat currencies tended towards inflation, sometimes badly.

Now we have the technolodgy so that people can free themselves from this 
'tax' on their holding of such.  So what we are predicting is that 
because we can, from now on, people will use fixed quantity 
cryptographic assets as both a method and exchange in assets and store 
of value.  Our prediction is that whatever this turns out to be, whether 
Bitcoin, Lite coin, or whatever, the total market capitalization of 
whichever is the leading one, will grow at least exponentially.  And we 
are predicting, in a law like way, that the leading currency will be one 
that is fixed in it's supply.  So, in our opinion, it is law like that 
the total market capitalized value of these fixed units, whatever they 
are, will increase in value, at least exponentually, for the foreseeable 
future, keeping up with the exponentially growing economy.  This will be 
true far more reliably than something like "Moore's law", and so on.  
Something like collectors stamps, maybe tulips,  or what is currently in 
fashion, has nothing to do with any of what our camp is talking about.

So, Anders, as one of my most trusted experts, do you think "law" is not 
appropriate for the name of the best camp about the future valuation of 
the leading crypto currency?

Brent Allsop

















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