[ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?

[BillK]

On Tue, Aug 27, 2013 at 2:32 PM, spike wrote:
<snip>
> This view of the evolution of intelligence as a temporary random excursion
> from the boring mean, a spike rather than an S curve to a new and higher
> plateau, goes against everything I have always believed and hoped for, but
> it is the only way I have been able to explain Fermi's paradox.  This
> realization is in some ways worse than when my own fundamentalist religious
> notions crumbled to dust beneath my feet.   I do hope someone can talk me
> out of this grim conclusion.
>
>

Your scenario is certainly plausible, though the reasons for such a
universal surge then decline of intelligence remain obscure. I would
need to see some possible causes for a *universal* appearance then
decline of intelligence.

Once started, intelligence should be difficult to stop, as each
generation builds on the past. That's why my preference is that
intelligence continues to grow, but changes its objectives. So every
species finds something better to do than spam the galaxy. The change
must happen fairly quickly so that as the tech required to build
AI-controlled, self-replicating probes becomes available, it also
points out the futility of that path. It is probably the AI invention
that does this. Mankind's last invention, as the saying goes.

To me, the great silence indicates that as intelligence grows, the
future path becomes overwhelmingly obvious. But not to us, because we
are not there yet.

BillK