From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Dec  1 00:40:22 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sat, 30 Nov 2013 17:40:22 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Luna Ring Solar Power
In-Reply-To: <529A5F8E.1080002@aleph.se>
References: <mailman.417.1385811359.28790.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <5299D4AD.3070106@yahoo.com>
 <CALMrAFS4_iZFMLz2gaxjTDJTZ2yrz1h2a8vPAUFhUcsg9N5uJw@mail.gmail.com>
 <1385819134.89231.YahooMailNeo@web171605.mail.ir2.yahoo.com>
 <529A5F8E.1080002@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwYZRJEOjs6NLsNK0cCeYCHVkR7ZdcE_8bJViJoQJyL4AA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Nov 30, 2013 at 2:58 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

>  On 2013-11-30 13:45, giorgio gaviraghi wrote:
>
>  we don't need centralize solar farms. Each building will carry its own,
> same with roads that will power the vehicles
> we must decentralize power generation get rid of power lines, stations and
> so on
>
> I'm on the record stating that PV panels on every roof is a really bad
idea because of the infrastructure requirements for every building. DC
power doesn't travel very far efficiently, so you can't distribute the
infrastructure easily. It is not the cost of solar panels that kills you,
it is the cost of the inverters and other electronics to convert to AC.
Very costly stuff.


> If you want to really help mankind, invent a really good (large capacity,
> many cycles) rechargeable battery. The rest is easy.
>

What do you think of this one Anders?
http://bit.ly/1cevY1Y

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131130/f916634b/attachment.html>

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Dec  1 00:41:54 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sat, 30 Nov 2013 17:41:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Luna Ring Solar Power
In-Reply-To: <5299C451.4000100@yahoo.com>
References: <mailman.1.1385726401.674.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <5299C451.4000100@yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwbJZdWd-mJxHPexwAAQXxQ7JNZWxDb4kvP7oLDg64GCkg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Nov 30, 2013 at 3:56 AM, Ben <bbenzai at yahoo.com> wrote:

> http://www.shimz.co.jp/english/theme/dream/lunaring.html
>
> Any observations on this?  Better/worse than solar power satellites?
>

If you can build it entirely out of lunar materials, then it seems it would
be better in that you don't have to raise tons of stuff into orbit.

Of course, the Japanese will have to lease the land from the Chinese by
3035. :-)

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131130/f61a1b1d/attachment.html>

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Dec  1 00:46:50 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sat, 30 Nov 2013 17:46:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Inflation graph
In-Reply-To: <5299A77A.3000405@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv2jW0MSVOZ0+uORzdVUa946a1c_F-iApZscJUc5h68wGA@mail.gmail.com>
 <04bf01ced34e$02ba59c0$082f0d40$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1rX7SsMBMfTswBB2ZQzefvhtzK+rvci+5+qYM54_JuZQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFi3GJ3nQoy8GCbz2Z89bp0+J+pnQ4E1O1QjjdXzj3nPxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Nw0GM5HNhU48uApxpkH+z2SgkhbtUcu96OfK7PmWk0Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <52989BB8.1040809@libero.it>
 <CAJPayv3edK_-+tmPGzMro5K-sOswwOk+8upJV6Hrs-7uOFUy2w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwaKWRVwie0j88aRRKJAkdwv_zDQcQEbPu9+LZ1Lzo4KSg@mail.gmail.com>
 <5299A77A.3000405@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZ261OPBTKCstuh-zHzwXC2Q+p=6h0WTGMheAS_iknMyw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Nov 30, 2013 at 1:53 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

>  On 2013-11-30 00:36, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
> That is a bit of a misunderstanding: it only applies to efficient
> financial markets. Economics also predicts that if you lower the price of
> your lemonade, more people will tend to buy it.
>

If you lowered the price of lemonade to zero, I still would not buy it.
Yucky stuff, it gets in your mouth and makes your face curl up in an
obscene fashion.

On a serious note, the thing you want to be able to predict is what is the
maximum profit to be made from lemonade? Sure, if it's free, more people
will buy it (still not me) but if it is a million dollars a glass, nobody
will buy it. But it's somewhere in between where the lemonade stand makes
the most money as a percentage of the money invested. And economics isn't
terribly good at determining that price as it is such an inexact science.
The folks at the Santa Fe institute have done really good work on
demonstrating just why economics is so hard. It's fascinating reading.

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131130/92754157/attachment.html>

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Dec  1 00:50:01 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sat, 30 Nov 2013 17:50:01 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Inflation graph
In-Reply-To: <5299D136.4000807@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv2jW0MSVOZ0+uORzdVUa946a1c_F-iApZscJUc5h68wGA@mail.gmail.com>
 <04bf01ced34e$02ba59c0$082f0d40$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1rX7SsMBMfTswBB2ZQzefvhtzK+rvci+5+qYM54_JuZQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFi3GJ3nQoy8GCbz2Z89bp0+J+pnQ4E1O1QjjdXzj3nPxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Nw0GM5HNhU48uApxpkH+z2SgkhbtUcu96OfK7PmWk0Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <52989BB8.1040809@libero.it>
 <CAJPayv3edK_-+tmPGzMro5K-sOswwOk+8upJV6Hrs-7uOFUy2w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwaKWRVwie0j88aRRKJAkdwv_zDQcQEbPu9+LZ1Lzo4KSg@mail.gmail.com>
 <5299A77A.3000405@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjNf3UQOJSkmLqdkZQp1JaVGObQrr07JATzZZovCMdcMQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5299D136.4000807@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwaHXiE956t9nFKqo2+x8R4DdYeUVNpkCuGxyFHT+=v_ww@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Nov 30, 2013 at 4:51 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2013-11-30 11:30, BillK wrote:
>
>>
>>>  I doubt if you can call that a prediction. (Agreeing with John).
>>
>> It is a naive observation that if the price is cheaper people can
>> afford to buy more.
>> The original claim is that *all things being held equal*, lower price
>> equals more sales.
>> But there are so many exceptions, that it cannot be a prediction. In
>> real life all things are never held equal.
>>
>
> Physics is clearly just as crappy. That "law of gravity" clearly has loads
> of exceptions - balloons, birds, clouds. Clearly it cannot make good
> predictions with all those exceptions of buoyancy, drag, the Yarkovsky
> effect and whatnot. And they change it all the time with relativistic
> corrections. Clearly no real life applications. Don't get me started on the
> "science" of biology.
>
> If you really think economics doesn't know anything useful, you should be
> able to make money as well as - or better - than people with economic
> knowledge without having had to pay for all that education. Raise prices,
> value risk at zero, and trade with people with more information than you
> have: you are going to be rich!
>
> (I was thinking of mentioning Giffen goods and similar complications in my
> quick post, but felt that it would detract from the point. "Prediction" is
> a loaded word in the philosophy of science, and comes in many kinds and
> qualities. But supply-demand is a rather solid prediction approach.)
>

I find it interesting that at the end of nearly every story on Bitcoin I've
seen in the media, one reporter says at the end "I think I'll stick with
dollars and I think everyone else should too" to which the other reporter
replies, "Sounds like a good idea Jim."

Perhaps they aren't economists... LOL

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131130/e2907159/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Sun Dec  1 01:00:05 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 01 Dec 2013 01:00:05 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Inflation graph
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwaHXiE956t9nFKqo2+x8R4DdYeUVNpkCuGxyFHT+=v_ww@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2jW0MSVOZ0+uORzdVUa946a1c_F-iApZscJUc5h68wGA@mail.gmail.com>
 <04bf01ced34e$02ba59c0$082f0d40$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1rX7SsMBMfTswBB2ZQzefvhtzK+rvci+5+qYM54_JuZQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFi3GJ3nQoy8GCbz2Z89bp0+J+pnQ4E1O1QjjdXzj3nPxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Nw0GM5HNhU48uApxpkH+z2SgkhbtUcu96OfK7PmWk0Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <52989BB8.1040809@libero.it>
 <CAJPayv3edK_-+tmPGzMro5K-sOswwOk+8upJV6Hrs-7uOFUy2w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwaKWRVwie0j88aRRKJAkdwv_zDQcQEbPu9+LZ1Lzo4KSg@mail.gmail.com>
 <5299A77A.3000405@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjNf3UQOJSkmLqdkZQp1JaVGObQrr07JATzZZovCMdcMQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5299D136.4000807@aleph.se>
 <CAPy8RwaHXiE956t9nFKqo2+x8R4DdYeUVNpkCuGxyFHT+=v_ww@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <529A8A15.8080105@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-01 00:50, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
> I find it interesting that at the end of nearly every story on Bitcoin 
> I've seen in the media, one reporter says at the end "I think I'll 
> stick with dollars and I think everyone else should too" to which the 
> other reporter replies, "Sounds like a good idea Jim."
>
> Perhaps they aren't economists... LOL

Ironically, *The Economist* has a leader this week
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21590901-it-looks-overvalued-even-if-digital-currency-crashes-others-will-follow-bitcoin
that concludes: "So let a thousand altcoins bloom. In the meantime, if 
you are lucky or clever enough to have owned an asset whose price has 
risen 60-fold in a year, it might be time to sell."

Now, the authors are presumably journalists, but The Economist has a 
certain level of credibility and competence although it is empirically 
no better than anybody else in spotting *when* bubbles will burst - 
seeing that something is a bubble is no help in itself.


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From anders at aleph.se  Sun Dec  1 01:06:25 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 01 Dec 2013 01:06:25 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Luna Ring Solar Power
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwYZRJEOjs6NLsNK0cCeYCHVkR7ZdcE_8bJViJoQJyL4AA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.417.1385811359.28790.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <5299D4AD.3070106@yahoo.com>
 <CALMrAFS4_iZFMLz2gaxjTDJTZ2yrz1h2a8vPAUFhUcsg9N5uJw@mail.gmail.com>
 <1385819134.89231.YahooMailNeo@web171605.mail.ir2.yahoo.com>
 <529A5F8E.1080002@aleph.se>
 <CAPy8RwYZRJEOjs6NLsNK0cCeYCHVkR7ZdcE_8bJViJoQJyL4AA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <529A8B91.5080906@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-01 00:40, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> On Sat, Nov 30, 2013 at 2:58 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se 
> <mailto:anders at aleph.se>> wrote:
>
>     On 2013-11-30 13:45, giorgio gaviraghi wrote:
>>     we don't need centralize solar farms. Each building will carry
>>     its own, same with roads that will power the vehicles
>>     we must decentralize power generation get rid of power lines,
>>     stations and so on
>
> I'm on the record stating that PV panels on every roof is a really bad 
> idea because of the infrastructure requirements for every building. DC 
> power doesn't travel very far efficiently, so you can't distribute the 
> infrastructure easily. It is not the cost of solar panels that kills 
> you, it is the cost of the inverters and other electronics to convert 
> to AC. Very costly stuff.

Still, local DC looks like it *might* be making a comeback. But it is 
long-range transmission that is hard.

>     If you want to really help mankind, invent a really good (large
>     capacity, many cycles) rechargeable battery. The rest is easy.
>
>
> What do you think of this one Anders?
> http://bit.ly/1cevY1Y

*Sounds* good. But the proof is in the pudding - there is no shortage of 
press releases for promising tech.

I have the suspicion that we need something more fundamentally different 
than just clever improvements of current batteries. I am watching 
supercapacitors with interest, although they still have far to go. 
Still, a really cheap and simple battery with the right properties might 
work out despite inefficiency: the solution does not have to be 
close-to-limits-set-by-physical-law-perfect to make distributed power 
generation or renewables effective (just consider how fracking, for all 
its imperfections and headaches, is still good enough to revolutionise 
the US energy industry).

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131201/f3cefd73/attachment.html>

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Dec  1 01:17:34 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sat, 30 Nov 2013 18:17:34 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Inflation graph
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiLM-c4f2u2Xmym5KTSYYoqyX9hdtwozHHmfEJvMfdnUw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2jW0MSVOZ0+uORzdVUa946a1c_F-iApZscJUc5h68wGA@mail.gmail.com>
 <04bf01ced34e$02ba59c0$082f0d40$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1rX7SsMBMfTswBB2ZQzefvhtzK+rvci+5+qYM54_JuZQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFi3GJ3nQoy8GCbz2Z89bp0+J+pnQ4E1O1QjjdXzj3nPxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Nw0GM5HNhU48uApxpkH+z2SgkhbtUcu96OfK7PmWk0Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <52989BB8.1040809@libero.it>
 <CAJPayv3edK_-+tmPGzMro5K-sOswwOk+8upJV6Hrs-7uOFUy2w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwaKWRVwie0j88aRRKJAkdwv_zDQcQEbPu9+LZ1Lzo4KSg@mail.gmail.com>
 <5299A77A.3000405@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjNf3UQOJSkmLqdkZQp1JaVGObQrr07JATzZZovCMdcMQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5299D136.4000807@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv1Pc=VrBwB53rNPjNUe42obctwS9Qb1pgi=X2taVFd-ZQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armiLM-c4f2u2Xmym5KTSYYoqyX9hdtwozHHmfEJvMfdnUw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZvRRM46F=JvzwS21Xt5_vyuN0oM1jxJ3aTxoWGWyfaDQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Nov 30, 2013 at 9:52 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> Market theory and economic theory fail in corrupt markets.
>

And nothing corrupts markets (ie. makes them NOT follow economic theory)
like government interference and regulation.

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131130/b1c9c9aa/attachment.html>

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Dec  1 01:23:05 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sat, 30 Nov 2013 18:23:05 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Inflation graph
In-Reply-To: <529A8A15.8080105@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv2jW0MSVOZ0+uORzdVUa946a1c_F-iApZscJUc5h68wGA@mail.gmail.com>
 <04bf01ced34e$02ba59c0$082f0d40$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1rX7SsMBMfTswBB2ZQzefvhtzK+rvci+5+qYM54_JuZQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFi3GJ3nQoy8GCbz2Z89bp0+J+pnQ4E1O1QjjdXzj3nPxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Nw0GM5HNhU48uApxpkH+z2SgkhbtUcu96OfK7PmWk0Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <52989BB8.1040809@libero.it>
 <CAJPayv3edK_-+tmPGzMro5K-sOswwOk+8upJV6Hrs-7uOFUy2w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwaKWRVwie0j88aRRKJAkdwv_zDQcQEbPu9+LZ1Lzo4KSg@mail.gmail.com>
 <5299A77A.3000405@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjNf3UQOJSkmLqdkZQp1JaVGObQrr07JATzZZovCMdcMQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5299D136.4000807@aleph.se>
 <CAPy8RwaHXiE956t9nFKqo2+x8R4DdYeUVNpkCuGxyFHT+=v_ww@mail.gmail.com>
 <529A8A15.8080105@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwYE=z86DSyE5_2wsXjKLxSyKec9QWrrQj7zPmhe78=6Ag@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Nov 30, 2013 at 6:00 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2013-12-01 00:50, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
>>
>> I find it interesting that at the end of nearly every story on Bitcoin
>> I've seen in the media, one reporter says at the end "I think I'll stick
>> with dollars and I think everyone else should too" to which the other
>> reporter replies, "Sounds like a good idea Jim."
>>
>> Perhaps they aren't economists... LOL
>>
>
> Ironically, *The Economist* has a leader this week
> http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21590901-it-looks-
> overvalued-even-if-digital-currency-crashes-others-will-follow-bitcoin
> that concludes: "So let a thousand altcoins bloom. In the meantime, if you
> are lucky or clever enough to have owned an asset whose price has risen
> 60-fold in a year, it might be time to sell."
>
> Now, the authors are presumably journalists, but The Economist has a
> certain level of credibility and competence although it is empirically no
> better than anybody else in spotting *when* bubbles will burst - seeing
> that something is a bubble is no help in itself.
>

And who is to say that it is a bubble? There may be a little bit of a
bubble at the moment, it will correct, then in three months, it will be
right back where it was when the bubble burst. There is something real at
the bottom of Bitcoin, I'm convinced of it.

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131130/7f9bb20a/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Sun Dec  1 11:26:40 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 01 Dec 2013 11:26:40 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Clip about ageing
Message-ID: <529B1CF0.80406@aleph.se>

PhD comics clip about ageing research, starring a familiar voice:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jc4yK0zZ-cQ

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From natasha at natasha.cc  Sun Dec  1 18:17:01 2013
From: natasha at natasha.cc (natasha at natasha.cc)
Date: Sun, 1 Dec 2013 11:17:01 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Hangout on Air: The Future of Cryonics - Wood, More, Sandberg,
	Vita-More, Smyth
Message-ID: <002e01ceeec1$890a8570$9b1f9050$@natasha.cc>

http://www.meetup.com/London-Futurists/events/148903312/?_af_eid=148903312
<http://www.meetup.com/London-Futurists/events/148903312/?_af_eid=148903312&
_af=event&a=uc1_vm> &_af=event&a=uc1_vm

 

David Wood is putting together another "cool" event.  See you there!

 

 

 <http://www.natasha.cc/> Natasha Vita-More, PhD

Chairman,  <http://www.humanityplus.org/> Humanity+



 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131201/ae5c7754/attachment.html>

From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Mon Dec  2 00:07:37 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan Ust)
Date: Sun, 1 Dec 2013 16:07:37 -0800
Subject: [ExI] How Dragon Kings Could Trump Black Swans
Message-ID: <9EB0B748-5B10-42B5-A48F-F928BABB5CBD@yahoo.com>

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/414616/how-dragon-kings-could-trump-black-swans/

Regards,

Dan
 "Medea's Gift," a thriller set in the far south seas: http://t.co/rPiCZJKVrl 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131201/7754b9ea/attachment.html>

From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Mon Dec  2 00:31:17 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan Ust)
Date: Sun, 1 Dec 2013 16:31:17 -0800
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
Message-ID: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>

http://blogs.hbr.org/2013/11/the-pace-of-technology-adoption-is-speeding-up/

Regards,

Dan
 "Medea's Gift," a thriller set in the far south seas: http://t.co/rPiCZJKVrl 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131201/325d9831/attachment.html>

From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Mon Dec  2 05:55:53 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 00:55:53 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Dollar mining
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFhCebuk6z+DE0TX8GLL4iKihFPavK84BOZGoo0cPkcV4Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Nov 29, 2013 at 4:32 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> I am saying that prices, which is what you're so worried about, is equal to
> the money supply which is all you want to talk about, TIMES  the velocity of
> money which you don't want to talk about because it is the product of about
> a zillion independent factors, DIVIDED  by the quantity of things produced
> which you also don't want to talk about because it is the product of a
> bazillion QUITE different independent factors. MV=PQ may be true but is
> useless in predicting what P will be next year if you don't know what V or Q
> will be next year. It's as useless as the Drake equation is in figuring out
> if ET exists because we don't know what values to stick into the equation.

### So you are backpedaling a bit, previously you claimed that recent
lack of large scale inflation in the US is proof that money supply is
not the driving factor in inflation. Good, you are getting closer to
reality.

Now, of course the equation of exchange is much more useful than the
Drake equation, since M, V and Q can be estimated using various
proxies and measures. As I wrote previously, relative price stability
in the US despite increased M means that V, Q or both have changed to
partially offset increased M. The question is, what happened?

My guess is that the main factor is foreign, predominantly Chinese,
demand for dollar-denominated securities and real estate. The bubble
economy in China makes the local elites scared, and since they sell us
a lot of stuff, they end up with a lot of dollars which they exchange
for securities rather than spend on our domestic market. This means
high demand for our debt, therefore low interest rates but no pressure
on our consumer prices. Both Q and V are affected.

There is a similarity between USG money printing and bitcoin mining:
Both the Fed and miners produce commodities whose primary value is
scarcity and
customary fungibility - of course, the Fed's product has more of a
head start (since August 15, 1971) and the fungibility of bitcoin is
still developing - but both can be (still and already, respectively)
be used to get real stuff for nothing. The Fed is truly our goose that
lays golden eggs (or maybe green ones). Of course, the dollar-making
machine is in government hands, which means idiots and knaves are in
charge, and they are now in the process of breaking it by running it
too hot, while the bitcoin is on autopilot, so it should not be
vulnerable to this particular issue (but could be brought down by
others).

We have to remember that our (American) financial windfall depends on
the dollar being a lesser evil as a means of accumulation compared to
other options (euro, gold, Swiss franc, stocks, etc.). There are
definitely some tipping points where we could find out how a partial
demonetization of our currency feels like.

Rafal


From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Dec  2 10:12:18 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 10:12:18 +0000
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
In-Reply-To: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
References: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 12:31 AM, Dan Ust wrote:
> http://blogs.hbr.org/2013/11/the-pace-of-technology-adoption-is-speeding-up/
>
>

That's good. It means I can easily miss whole generations of the latest fads.
I don't have to buy this year's new thing and have all the hassle of
moving stuff and learning new routines. Because next year's fad will
be even 'better'.  :)

BillK


From anders at aleph.se  Mon Dec  2 10:35:49 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 02 Dec 2013 10:35:49 +0000
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <529C6285.6090503@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-02 10:12, BillK wrote:
> That's good. It means I can easily miss whole generations of the 
> latest fads. I don't have to buy this year's new thing and have all 
> the hassle of moving stuff and learning new routines. Because next 
> year's fad will be even 'better'.

The utility of new things is likely going up, so waiting gives you 
something better. But you also suffer the cost of not having the good 
gadget. If you discount the future at a rate r, the value now of getting 
the gadget in t years is exp(-rt)*U. If U is growing exponentially at 
the rate s, then the utility behaves exp(-(r-s)t) - is s>r you should 
never get the device, since it will always be more awesome if you wait.

So either the increasing pace of tech adaptation is a sign that s is 
*decreasing* (doom! stagnation!) or a sign that people are getting 
gadgets irrationally. I know what I would bet on.

There is an extra factor, and that is network effects. Apple Newton 
users were few and far between, so the cost was high and there was 
little software. Ipads reached a critical threshold and got lots of 
customers, lots of software, lots of technology advance. Same thing for 
many gadgets: they become more useful if more people use them.

Now, given the diffusion curves (are those the same ones NYT always use? 
Based on the old 1994 Forbes diagram?) you can see that the value of new 
tech likely is multiplied by a sigmoid curve: getting it early means few 
network effects and that it is not going to have a great utility. 
Another reason to wait. But if people are rushing through the diffusion 
process faster, that means you don't have to wait as long.


I recently got a new Samsung S4zoom smartphone to replace my iPhone 3. 
This is my fourth cellphone I have owned - I only change when the old 
one actually starts impairing my functionality, and then I jump two or 
three tech generations at a time. This way I do not have to pay the cost 
of learning new systems very often.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Dec  2 10:46:25 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 11:46:25 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131202104625.GF10793@leitl.org>

On Mon, Dec 02, 2013 at 10:12:18AM +0000, BillK wrote:
> On Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 12:31 AM, Dan Ust wrote:
> > http://blogs.hbr.org/2013/11/the-pace-of-technology-adoption-is-speeding-up/

Unfortunately, the really important things, the things that matter,
the ones that bring food on your plate and drive the real GDP growth
are not speeding up, being infrastructure.

http://theenergycollective.com/robertwilson190/264361/renewable-energy-germany-growing-slower-you-think

Certainly no linear semilog plots there.

> >
> >
> 
> That's good. It means I can easily miss whole generations of the latest fads.
> I don't have to buy this year's new thing and have all the hassle of
> moving stuff and learning new routines. Because next year's fad will
> be even 'better'.  :)


From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Dec  2 11:14:06 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 11:14:06 +0000
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
In-Reply-To: <529C6285.6090503@aleph.se>
References: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C6285.6090503@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armh7udFAxF+yewKo4VwM0F_9ie2d8_6icbVtnZ7RsbOJxA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 10:35 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> The utility of new things is likely going up, so waiting gives you something
> better. But you also suffer the cost of not having the good gadget. If you
> discount the future at a rate r, the value now of getting the gadget in t
> years is exp(-rt)*U. If U is growing exponentially at the rate s, then the
> utility behaves exp(-(r-s)t) - is s>r you should never get the device, since
> it will always be more awesome if you wait.
>
> So either the increasing pace of tech adaptation is a sign that s is
> *decreasing* (doom! stagnation!) or a sign that people are getting gadgets
> irrationally. I know what I would bet on.
>

I would add in a utility function for the value of your own time.

I find even the old land-line phones irritating, because the ring says
'Stop doing whatever it is you're working on and talk to me - My call
is more important!'.
(That's why I find email far more user-friendly - You read it when convenient).

When mobile phones arrived, this interference stepped up
exponentially. I found I was expected to be on-call for instant
response by employers, friends, relatives, salesmen, etc. Even
switching your phone off didn't work, because you knew all these
people were trying to contact you, and you were made to feel guilty
for not responding.

It might give you both a feeling of togetherness to know that Bob has
made a bacon sandwich for breakfast and to give him a witty response,
but continual status updates mean little else gets done.

A GP once said that one reason for the higher suicide rate among
doctors was the feeling of a wall of humanity pressing against his
office door, demanding attention. Your personal time is valuable!


BillK


From anders at aleph.se  Mon Dec  2 12:22:11 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 02 Dec 2013 12:22:11 +0000
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armh7udFAxF+yewKo4VwM0F_9ie2d8_6icbVtnZ7RsbOJxA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C6285.6090503@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armh7udFAxF+yewKo4VwM0F_9ie2d8_6icbVtnZ7RsbOJxA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <529C7B73.7080604@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-02 11:14, BillK wrote:
> I would add in a utility function for the value of your own time. I 
> find even the old land-line phones irritating, because the ring says 
> 'Stop doing whatever it is you're working on and talk to me - My call 
> is more important!'.

Sure. You have to choose your technology and not let it choose you. This 
is why many doctors still use pagers, and why I have decided against 
most social media. Email is great for me because it is asynchronous, 
semi-permanent, "cold" in McLuhan's terminology and allows you to 
formulate thoughts in a structured manner.

A surprising number of people just use whatever tech everybody else is 
using without checking whether it actually fits their lifestyle and 
cognitive style.

The real challenge is of course when you need to collaborate with 
somebody else with a different style. This is where it pays off actually 
understanding what works and doesn't work for you, and being able to 
explain it.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From spike66 at att.net  Mon Dec  2 15:22:21 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 07:22:21 -0800
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
In-Reply-To: <20131202104625.GF10793@leitl.org>
References: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131202104625.GF10793@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <02ea01ceef72$4c944a20$e5bcde60$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
Subject: Re: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
>...

>...Unfortunately, the really important things, the things that matter, the
ones that bring food on your plate and drive the real GDP growth are not
speeding up, being infrastructure.

http://theenergycollective.com/robertwilson190/264361/renewable-energy-germa
ny-growing-slower-you-think

>...Certainly no linear semilog plots there.

_______________________________________________



Thanks Eugen, good paper.  I see a section in there I don't think is right,
the projections of future population of Germany based on birthrate.  I agree
with the birthrate projections, but I disagree with the projections of
future population.  I predict Germany's population will not decrease, not
now, not later.  As time goes on Germany will import people from elsewhere.
Rather, people from elsewhere will import themselves, very likely against
Germany's collective will.  You will not like these imports.  But don't
worry, they will not like you either.

spike



From spike66 at att.net  Mon Dec  2 15:29:31 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 07:29:31 -0800
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
In-Reply-To: <529C7B73.7080604@aleph.se>
References: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C6285.6090503@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armh7udFAxF+yewKo4VwM0F_9ie2d8_6icbVtnZ7RsbOJxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C7B73.7080604@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <02eb01ceef73$4cd7c650$e68752f0$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Subject: Re: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up

On 2013-12-02 11:14, BillK wrote:
>>... I would add in a utility function for the value of your own time. I 
> find even the old land-line phones irritating, because the ring says 
> 'Stop doing whatever it is you're working on and talk to me - My call 
> is more important!'.

>...Sure. You have to choose your technology and not let it choose you. This
is why many doctors still use pagers, and why I have decided against most
social media. Email is great for me because it is asynchronous,
semi-permanent, "cold" in McLuhan's terminology and allows you to formulate
thoughts in a structured manner.

>...A surprising number of people just use whatever tech everybody else is
using without checking whether it actually fits their lifestyle and
cognitive style.

>...The real challenge is of course when you need to collaborate with
somebody else with a different style. This is where it pays off actually
understanding what works and doesn't work for you, and being able to explain
it.
--
Dr Anders Sandberg
_______________________________________________

Thanks Anders, this is the best short commentary that sums up why I have
eschewed Facebook and texting.  Neither of those media are conducive to the
kinds of processes going on in my head, even if they have their uses.

spike



From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Dec  2 15:51:01 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 15:51:01 +0000
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
In-Reply-To: <02eb01ceef73$4cd7c650$e68752f0$@att.net>
References: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C6285.6090503@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armh7udFAxF+yewKo4VwM0F_9ie2d8_6icbVtnZ7RsbOJxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C7B73.7080604@aleph.se>
 <02eb01ceef73$4cd7c650$e68752f0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgpo99e9oG-LFk5LoUy=NEOVZYWCZFuZWDdtkXixvjf5g@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 3:29 PM, spike  wrote:
> Thanks Anders, this is the best short commentary that sums up why I have
> eschewed Facebook and texting.  Neither of those media are conducive to the
> kinds of processes going on in my head, even if they have their uses.
>
>

Yes, you certainly don't want to frighten those of a nervous
disposition by displaying the
kinds of processes going on in your head!  :)

Even strong men quail and tremble at the suggestion.

BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Mon Dec  2 16:52:11 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 08:52:11 -0800
Subject: [ExI] anders' sea of pu,
	was:  RE:  The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
Message-ID: <031701ceef7e$d92f8150$8b8e83f0$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up

On Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 3:29 PM, spike  wrote:
>>... Thanks Anders, this is the best short commentary that sums up why I 
> have eschewed Facebook and texting.  Neither of those media are 
> conducive to the kinds of processes going on in my head, even if they have
their uses.


>...Yes, you certainly don't want to frighten those of a nervous disposition
by displaying the kinds of processes going on in your head!  :)

>...Even strong men quail and tremble at the suggestion.

>...BillK
_______________________________________________

BillK you flatter me sir, thanks.  {8-]  

I do have some fun stuff going on in here currently.  For this I am indebted
to Dr. Sandberg, for his comment last week about seas of plutonium gave me
an idea.  Suppose you are God {it has to be the capital G for this task, Mr.
Damn himself, and even God in all his omnipotence might not have sufficient
Om.}  Make an earth-mass sphere of pure 244 plutonium as cold as you can
make it, 0 K.  How long before we can start swimming?

Taking just the first decay, alpha-ing down from 244Pu to neptunium 240, the
half-life is about 80 million years and the alpha pings off at an energy of
about 4.7MeV and the heat cap of plutonium is about 35 J*mol-1*K-1, so

(6E23 atoms*mol-1)*(ln(2))/(2.4e15sec){half-life of
244Pu}*(4.7Mev/decay)*(1Joule/(6.2E12MeV))*(mol*K/35J)

= 3.7E-6 K/sec, so the plutonium planet {hmmmm, a plutonium planet, what
could we call it, hmmmm...) would go from absolute zero to a nice warm swim
in molten plutonium in a little less than 8 years.

But wait, there's more.  Less actually, for the daughters of Pu244 are an
alpha and uranium 240, but 240U has a half-life of only 14 hours and the
resulting 240Np has a half-life of only about an hour, so you quickly double
beta back to plutonium 240.  This is a clean decay chain because there is no
neutron capture available in this artificial environment; only alphas and
Pu244 about, so after a very short time, we have these 240Pu atoms, which
have a half-life of about 6600 years, with an even higher energy alpha
pinging off at about 5.3Mev.  But since there isn't much of that, you can
neglect it for this calculation, and look at just the energy released in the
double beta decay of Neptunium to get from a frozen ball of 244Pu to a
molten sea in about 5 years, but somewhere in this discussion, I should
offer a polite greeting to the local NSA agent who is wondering why I am
googling about the internets wanting to learn about half-ife of plutonium,
uranium and neptunium, so hello there Ms. or Mr. NSA agent!

In any case, the amount of 240Pu is increasing, so the heating rate starts
at about 4 microKelvin per second and accelerates.  It's a fun exercise to
think about what happens as the whole shebang heats up and starts
self-heating ever faster as you increase the amount of more fizzile
daughters, and yes I intentionally misspelled fizzile, for I only wish to
greet the NSA agents, not tease them.

Ja BillK, it is fun in here, and ja it isn't the place to bring your
grandmother or small children.  Even if grandma is single and attractive,
I'm not.  {8^D

{8-]

spike

 



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Mon Dec  2 17:06:20 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 12:06:20 -0500
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
In-Reply-To: <02eb01ceef73$4cd7c650$e68752f0$@att.net>
References: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C6285.6090503@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armh7udFAxF+yewKo4VwM0F_9ie2d8_6icbVtnZ7RsbOJxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C7B73.7080604@aleph.se>
 <02eb01ceef73$4cd7c650$e68752f0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFhip7=fjweXRXdD_xyNxCNhWGkm2-Ae8Srvy=EMhgsnAg@mail.gmail.com>

On 12/2/13, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Thanks Anders, this is the best short commentary that sums up why I have
> eschewed Facebook and texting.  Neither of those media are conducive to the
> kinds of processes going on in my head, even if they have their uses.

### Me too (very limited Facebooking, only if ppl insist on contacting
me there, txting for very short utilitarian applications). Interesting
how many more such persons are here? Are we different from relevant
others in this respect as well?

Rafal


From markalanwalker at gmail.com  Mon Dec  2 17:23:15 2013
From: markalanwalker at gmail.com (Mark Walker)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 10:23:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
In-Reply-To: <529C7B73.7080604@aleph.se>
References: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C6285.6090503@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armh7udFAxF+yewKo4VwM0F_9ie2d8_6icbVtnZ7RsbOJxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C7B73.7080604@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAAt7+78Ai8wa6SiwFxf+59dT5CUfJbG8m1PDm+T4+ES98YQ1mw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 5:22 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2013-12-02 11:14, BillK wrote:
>
>> I would add in a utility function for the value of your own time. I find
>> even the old land-line phones irritating, because the ring says 'Stop doing
>> whatever it is you're working on and talk to me - My call is more
>> important!'.
>>
>
> Sure. You have to choose your technology and not let it choose you. This
> is why many doctors still use pagers, and why I have decided against most
> social media. Email is great for me because it is asynchronous,
> semi-permanent, "cold" in McLuhan's terminology and allows you to formulate
> thoughts in a structured manner.
>
> A surprising number of people just use whatever tech everybody else is
> using without checking whether it actually fits their lifestyle and
> cognitive style.
>


There is implicit in this a three party relationship: you, the technology
and the expectations of others. I use Facebook and texting, but only very
occasionally. The trick to make them useful is to train other people. If
someone says, "Did you see what I posted on Facebook yesterday?", I'll say:
"No, but perhaps in three months when I am on Facebook again". Quickly they
stop asking.  Although I am rarely on Facebook, I do find it convenient for
certain things.

Similarly with texting: I send one or two texts per week on average. I've
trained those that I know to text me only if it is very, very important. I
simply ignore non urgent texts and block repeat offenders. When I use it,
it can be pretty handy, e.g., sending or receiving instructions/directions
etc.  My kids send literally hundreds per day to their friends. For me this
would be slavery. I hate the "Whuz up?" texting.

If only we could build into the technology our preferences for how other
people use it to communicate with us. I would love something that would
send a 15-amp electrical shock to the cellphones of people who violate my
texting rule. I'm confident that this would be an effective teaching tool.
I wonder what sort of danger pay telemarketers would receive if this
technology were available.

Dr. Mark Walker
Richard L. Hedden Chair of Advanced Philosophical Studies
Department of Philosophy
New Mexico State University
P.O. Box 30001, MSC 3B
Las Cruces, NM 88003-8001
USA
http://www.nmsu.edu/~philos/mark-walkers-home-page.html



>
> Dr Anders Sandberg
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Oxford University
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131202/2856fffa/attachment.html>

From mbb386 at main.nc.us  Mon Dec  2 18:20:46 2013
From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 13:20:46 -0500
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFhip7=fjweXRXdD_xyNxCNhWGkm2-Ae8Srvy=EMhgsnAg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C6285.6090503@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armh7udFAxF+yewKo4VwM0F_9ie2d8_6icbVtnZ7RsbOJxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C7B73.7080604@aleph.se> <02eb01ceef73$4cd7c650$e68752f0$@att.net>
 <CAAc1gFhip7=fjweXRXdD_xyNxCNhWGkm2-Ae8Srvy=EMhgsnAg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <790ee1ec52e9e2e3cad7b6becbb1bb30.squirrel@www.main.nc.us>


No Facebook, no texting, no cellphone coverage at home -
mountains in the way. The Answering Machine for the
landline works quite well and I will listen before picking
up, and maybe ignore altogether.

Email is, as already mentioned, something I can handle
*when convenient*.

No TV here either, it was a dead expense.

I like the idea of an electric shock for telemarketers. :)

Regards,
MB



From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Mon Dec  2 18:46:41 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 10:46:41 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gail Tverberg
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB64futEC5-V+=+NgfxUk+nh0A5sCAhJg+wK2hpXLG_+sQ@mail.gmail.com>

I find this one of the more important articles I have seen in some time.

It's not only important that was have lots of non-polluting energy, it
must also be really cheap to get enough surplus for government
spending and economic growth.

http://theenergycollective.com/gail-tverberg/266116/oil-prices-lead-hard-financial-limits

Gail was at a space solar power conference recently and I was able to
pin her down as to just how cheap.  She made the case that decent
economic growth needed $30-$50 per bbl oil.  If we are making
synthetic oil from electric power, this corresponds to 1-2 cents per
kWh power.

(The actual formula is $10/bbl for the plant capital equipment charge
plus $20 per bbl for each cent per kWh paid for the electricity.  The
physics and chemistry is worked out here:
http://www.htyp.org/dollar_a_gallon_gasoline)

It's a worthwhile article to read.

Keith


From painlord2k at libero.it  Mon Dec  2 19:37:48 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Mon, 02 Dec 2013 20:37:48 +0100
Subject: [ExI] How can people be so blind about Bitcoin and the future?
In-Reply-To: <52905440.8020008@canonizer.com>
References: <52905440.8020008@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <529CE18C.9070900@libero.it>

Il 23/11/2013 08:07, Brent Allsop ha scritto:

I was looking at stuff about Weimar Hyperinflation and come up with this
interesting picture

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GermanyHyperChart.jpg

It appear the chart of US $ , ?, Yen, ..., against the bitcoin.

Are we around the dash between 1921 and 1922?

Mirco


From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Dec  2 19:54:11 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 11:54:11 -0800
Subject: [ExI] How can people be so blind about Bitcoin and the future?
In-Reply-To: <529CE18C.9070900@libero.it>
References: <52905440.8020008@canonizer.com>
	<529CE18C.9070900@libero.it>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQgAyKQrBBVtgMQR4v+mxFx64Ky-gjoHMWFdHRpjnoUVQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 11:37 AM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it>wrote:

> I was looking at stuff about Weimar Hyperinflation and come up with this
> interesting picture
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GermanyHyperChart.jpg
>
> It appear the chart of US $ , ?, Yen, ..., against the bitcoin.
>
> Are we around the dash between 1921 and 1922?
>

Unlikely.  There aren't nearly the same factors to force loss of confidence
in the other currencies just now.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131202/024f748b/attachment.html>

From painlord2k at libero.it  Mon Dec  2 20:40:35 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Mon, 02 Dec 2013 21:40:35 +0100
Subject: [ExI] How can people be so blind about Bitcoin and the future?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQgAyKQrBBVtgMQR4v+mxFx64Ky-gjoHMWFdHRpjnoUVQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <52905440.8020008@canonizer.com>	<529CE18C.9070900@libero.it>
 <CALAdGNQgAyKQrBBVtgMQR4v+mxFx64Ky-gjoHMWFdHRpjnoUVQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <529CF043.8010900@libero.it>

Il 02/12/2013 20:54, Adrian Tymes ha scritto:
> On Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 11:37 AM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it
> <mailto:painlord2k at libero.it>> wrote:
> 
>     I was looking at stuff about Weimar Hyperinflation and come up with this
>     interesting picture
> 
>     http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GermanyHyperChart.jpg
> 
>     It appear the chart of US $ , ?, Yen, ..., against the bitcoin.
> 
>     Are we around the dash between 1921 and 1922?
> 
> 
> Unlikely.  There aren't nearly the same factors to force loss of
> confidence in the other currencies just now.

The light at the end of the tunnel could be the exit or the train.
You usually know just when it is too late.
But the noise you hear and the vibrations of the ground could be some
indication.

Mirco



From painlord2k at libero.it  Mon Dec  2 20:54:21 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Mon, 02 Dec 2013 21:54:21 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
In-Reply-To: <02eb01ceef73$4cd7c650$e68752f0$@att.net>
References: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C6285.6090503@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armh7udFAxF+yewKo4VwM0F_9ie2d8_6icbVtnZ7RsbOJxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C7B73.7080604@aleph.se> <02eb01ceef73$4cd7c650$e68752f0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <529CF37D.5000504@libero.it>

Il 02/12/2013 16:29, spike ha scritto:

>> ...The real challenge is of course when you need to collaborate with
> somebody else with a different style. This is where it pays off actually
> understanding what works and doesn't work for you, and being able to explain
> it.

And this explain because I find little interested in using Facebook,
Twitter, txt messages and so on.

Mirco



From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Dec  2 20:55:50 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 12:55:50 -0800
Subject: [ExI] How can people be so blind about Bitcoin and the future?
In-Reply-To: <529CF043.8010900@libero.it>
References: <52905440.8020008@canonizer.com> <529CE18C.9070900@libero.it>
 <CALAdGNQgAyKQrBBVtgMQR4v+mxFx64Ky-gjoHMWFdHRpjnoUVQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <529CF043.8010900@libero.it>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNReKMQwU-k2VNqysZVoe65+Ui-U3nworcWkTaFTPyabkA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 12:40 PM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it>wrote:

> Il 02/12/2013 20:54, Adrian Tymes ha scritto:
> > On Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 11:37 AM, Mirco Romanato <painlord2k at libero.it
> > <mailto:painlord2k at libero.it>> wrote:
> >
> >     I was looking at stuff about Weimar Hyperinflation and come up with
> this
> >     interesting picture
> >
> >     http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GermanyHyperChart.jpg
> >
> >     It appear the chart of US $ , ?, Yen, ..., against the bitcoin.
> >
> >     Are we around the dash between 1921 and 1922?
> >
> >
> > Unlikely.  There aren't nearly the same factors to force loss of
> > confidence in the other currencies just now.
>
> The light at the end of the tunnel could be the exit or the train.
> You usually know just when it is too late.
> But the noise you hear and the vibrations of the ground could be some
> indication.
>

The data doesn't compare.  Not to say there's nothing today, but it's quite
minor relative to the early 1920s.  By analogy, the tremors have a
magnitude, frequency, and other characteristics of people stomping hard, as
if to make it look like a train, rather than an actual train.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131202/558af96b/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Mon Dec  2 22:31:48 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 02 Dec 2013 22:31:48 +0000
Subject: [ExI] anders' sea of pu
In-Reply-To: <031701ceef7e$d92f8150$8b8e83f0$@att.net>
References: <031701ceef7e$d92f8150$8b8e83f0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <529D0A54.20505@aleph.se>

The temperature distribution of Plutonia is also pretty interesting. If 
you solve the heat diffusion equation for a sphere with internal heat 
generation you get T(r) = T_S + (q/6k)(R^2-r^2) where T_0 is the surface 
temperature, q is the volume heat generation and k thermal conductivity. 
It is hottest in the centre with a temperature of T(0)=T_S + R^2 q/6k.

T_S can be calculated due to energy conservation: the heat production is 
balanced by emission to space. 4 pi R^2 sigma T_S^4 = 4 pi q R^3 / 3 
gives T_S =  (q R / 3 sigma)^.25. So the surface temperature grows 
slowly with radius, but the core temperature increases with the square 
of the radius.

So cold Plutonia starts to heat up. As the core gets hotter it shifts to 
the beta phase, jumping up in volume - expect some magnificent rifting 
as the hot core grows faster than the surface. Near the surface where 
the pressures are low enough for all the other phases there will be even 
more jumps of thermal expansion (*and* contraction). Meanwhile the core 
will melt. Now, low pressure plutonium melt will allow solid plutonium 
phases to float, but I think the high pressure plutonium near the core 
will actually be lighter than the beta phase and start melting its way 
up (or following the thermal expansion rifts): I expect some spectacular 
plutonium volcanism. The initial dynamics will be a fun mess of 
convection that likely make the above thermal conduction model irrelevant.

Now, the temperature difference between the core and the surface ought 
to produce some pretty vigorous convection despite the high viscosity. 
The Coriolis effect might actually cause interesting stirring of the 
upwelling plumes. So while swimming, look out for currents!


By the way, Spike, you know about
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bateman_Equation
, right? Seems we could model the reaction chain fairly easily this way.


On 02/12/2013 16:52, spike wrote:
>
> but somewhere in this discussion, I should
> offer a polite greeting to the local NSA agent who is wondering why I am
> googling about the internets wanting to learn about half-ife of plutonium,
> uranium and neptunium, so hello there Ms. or Mr. NSA agent!

Indeed. Hi there, NSA!


-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University


From anders at aleph.se  Mon Dec  2 23:15:39 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 02 Dec 2013 23:15:39 +0000
Subject: [ExI] anders' sea of pu
In-Reply-To: <529D0A54.20505@aleph.se>
References: <031701ceef7e$d92f8150$8b8e83f0$@att.net> <529D0A54.20505@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <529D149B.8060407@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-02 22:31, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> The temperature distribution of Plutonia is also pretty interesting. 
> If you solve the heat diffusion equation for a sphere with internal 
> heat generation you get T(r) = T_S + (q/6k)(R^2-r^2) where T_0 is the 
> surface temperature, q is the volume heat generation and k thermal 
> conductivity. It is hottest in the centre with a temperature of 
> T(0)=T_S + R^2 q/6k.
>
> T_S can be calculated due to energy conservation: the heat production 
> is balanced by emission to space. 4 pi R^2 sigma T_S^4 = 4 pi q R^3 / 
> 3 gives T_S =  (q R / 3 sigma)^.25. So the surface temperature grows 
> slowly with radius, but the core temperature increases with the square 
> of the radius.

Cool insight: if the surface has T_S=912 K and q=10.61 W/m^3 and is in 
radiative equilibrium, then R=11 km. (Unless I miscalculated q)

If we use R=6371 km, then T_S=4464 K. This is actually above the boiling 
point, so eventually Plutonia will turn somewhat gaseous. However, I 
think leakage of the plutonium atmosphere to space will be slow. 
Especially given the 3 times higher surface gravity and the fact that 
this gas is *really* heavy - Earth can retain even nitrogen n the 
exosphere, and plutonium has a 17 higher atomic mass.

Meanwhile, at the core... k=6.74 W/mK, so T(0)= 10^13 K. Whoa. I think 
we can clearly expect that even if there is never any criticality 
anywhere, the core will tend to bubble up as very hot gas. In fact, I 
suspect that we are going to be in a way convective mode as the planet 
gets older. This will cool the core more efficiently. Given the 
radiative equilibrium above, I guess actual the final state of Plutonia 
is a fuzzy cloud of plutonium/helium mist, shining nicely orange.

Occasionally comets hit, shine brightly of Cherenkov radiation and 
finally act as neutron reflectors as they go out in spectacular flashes.

It makes quite a sight from its moon Urania. Which is slowly spiralling 
in due to tidal dissipation...

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From spike66 at att.net  Tue Dec  3 01:39:44 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 17:39:44 -0800
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
In-Reply-To: <529CF37D.5000504@libero.it>
References: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C6285.6090503@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armh7udFAxF+yewKo4VwM0F_9ie2d8_6icbVtnZ7RsbOJxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C7B73.7080604@aleph.se> <02eb01ceef73$4cd7c650$e68752f0$@att.net>
 <529CF37D.5000504@libero.it>
Message-ID: <05d501ceefc8$8bc89880$a359c980$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Mirco Romanato
Subject: Re: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up

Il 02/12/2013 16:29, spike ha scritto:

>> ...The real challenge is of course when you need to collaborate with
> somebody else with a different style. This is where it pays off 
> actually understanding what works and doesn't work for you, and being 
> able to explain it.

>...And this explain because I find little interested in using Facebook,
Twitter, txt messages and so on.

>...Mirco

_______________________________________________

Cool, no harm done Mirco, but I didn't ha scritto this comment.  I think
Anders or someone did in response to something I ha scrittoed.  I agree with
the sentiment: we have different media of communications, everything from
telephone only, Facebook only, etc.  I just finished sending off a Christmas
letter to a number of family members who don't even have a computer, oy.

spike



From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Dec  3 04:16:29 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 21:16:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The Pace of Technology Adoption is Speeding Up
In-Reply-To: <529C6285.6090503@aleph.se>
References: <1F5B36DF-1023-45D7-8C96-D1930AE30E7D@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armhVEKKu8=N2Vsxqt3Yn-JLwus1f6qS9dzAX-S6ArLsD3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <529C6285.6090503@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZfA+dYJ7E0z=dNWRmYAWcuxjAsC-xrebPyD40sWPkaHA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 3:35 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> I recently got a new Samsung S4zoom smartphone to replace my iPhone 3.
> This is my fourth cellphone I have owned - I only change when the old one
> actually starts impairing my functionality, and then I jump two or three
> tech generations at a time. This way I do not have to pay the cost of
> learning new systems very often.
>

I got a Note 3 Just a few days ago, because my S2 had a cracked screen. I
also hate the learning curve of a new phone. Buying the same brand helps a
little.

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131202/47e019c1/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Tue Dec  3 05:07:52 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 2 Dec 2013 21:07:52 -0800
Subject: [ExI] anders' sea of pu
In-Reply-To: <529D0A54.20505@aleph.se>
References: <031701ceef7e$d92f8150$8b8e83f0$@att.net> <529D0A54.20505@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <064801ceefe5$9f0d6ed0$dd284c70$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Subject: Re: [ExI] anders' sea of pu

>...The temperature distribution of Plutonia is also pretty interesting. If
you solve the heat diffusion equation for a sphere with internal heat
generation you get T(r) = T_S + (q/6k)(R^2-r^2) where T_0 is the surface
temperature, q is the volume heat generation and k thermal conductivity. 
It is hottest in the centre with a temperature of T(0)=T_S + R^2 q/6k...
T_S can be calculated due to energy conservation: the heat production is
balanced by emission to space. 4 pi R^2 sigma T_S^4 = 4 pi q R^3 / 3 gives
T_S =  (q R / 3 sigma)^.25. So the surface temperature grows slowly with
radius, but the core temperature increases with the square of the radius...

Ja, this is a more formal way to do what I did with a Bessel function.
Under the circumstances, that function predicts that 10km down from the
surface, any cubic cm of Pu would act like any other: it wouldn't know or
care that it was a mere 10km from a radiating surface.

>...So cold Plutonia starts to heat up. As the core gets hotter it shifts to
the beta phase, jumping up in volume - expect some magnificent rifting as
the hot core grows faster than the surface...

Possibly, but there might be phases of plutonium we know nothing about,
since we have little experience with super high pressures on this particular
metal.

>...By the way, Spike, you know about
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bateman_Equation
, right? Seems we could model the reaction chain fairly easily this way...


COOL!  Thanks for the reminder.  It's in my Modern Physics textbook from my
misspent youth.  I did something like this, noting that the 240Pu and
everything beyond it is negligible for this oddball scenario: you have the
initial alpha decay and two betas that happen quickly.  In the short few
year span, it is close enough to say one part per million of the original
244Pu has converted, so the fact that 240Pu has a thousandth the half-life
doesn't much matter: a thousandth the half-life with a millionth the
material, contribution about a thousandth to the activity.

In any case, the plutonium sphere would heat up, then about five years into
the experiment there would be some spectacular eruptions of molten Pu,
followed by the surface melting, while hot helium radiated into space, and
possibly some alpha particles would have enough energy for escape velocity
(I haven't done the calcs on this, tomorrow's fun.)  But if so, it would
leave behind a net negatively charged body, which is cool too.  Then the net
negative charge of the planet would hold the alpha particles much more
effectively than gravity, so the escape velocity would be much higher.

Cool Anders, what a fun mental exercise you spawned merely by mentioning
seas of plutonium.


On 02/12/2013 16:52, spike wrote:
>
>> but somewhere in this discussion, I should offer a polite greeting to 
> the local NSA agent...hello there Ms. or Mr. NSA agent!

>...Indeed. Hi there, NSA!
--
>...Anders Sandberg,

_______________________________________________

Ja, sure easy for you to say: you don't have to worry about them arranging
an IRS audit.  {8-[

{8-]  

I confess



From painlord2k at libero.it  Tue Dec  3 12:09:09 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Tue, 03 Dec 2013 13:09:09 +0100
Subject: [ExI] healthcare mash
In-Reply-To: <024b01ceed37$2461daa0$6d258fe0$@att.net>
References: <024b01ceed37$2461daa0$6d258fe0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <529DC9E5.7040504@libero.it>

Il 29/11/2013 20:13, spike ha scritto:


> ?for what I think will happen this evening and tomorrow.  I will give
> HealthCare.gov another try, and report back on how it goes.  I might
> even give them the benefit of the doubt and wait until Sunday, to keep
> out of the way of the vast majority of users.  We are told the
> experience will be greatly improved.  While this is a low bar, I doubt
> even that, for I know how hard it is to fix someone else?s code, and I
> know how difficult it is to make significant improvements in a software
> package when the real problem was bad initial design.


Moving from a planet Plutonium to Healthcare.gov (from Europe is like to
observe the same type of cosmic phenomenons or just some weird massive
reality show like "Jackass" or "16 and pregnant").

How went your new and improved experience with HealthCare.gov?
Inquiring mind want know.

Mirco


From spike66 at att.net  Tue Dec  3 17:13:21 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 3 Dec 2013 09:13:21 -0800
Subject: [ExI] healthcare mash
In-Reply-To: <529DC9E5.7040504@libero.it>
References: <024b01ceed37$2461daa0$6d258fe0$@att.net>
 <529DC9E5.7040504@libero.it>
Message-ID: <06c901cef04a$f892f5f0$e9b8e1d0$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Mirco Romanato
Subject: Re: [ExI] healthcare mash

Il 29/11/2013 20:13, spike ha scritto:


>> .for what I think will happen this evening and tomorrow.  I will give 
> HealthCare.gov another try, and report back on how it goes...


>...How went your new and improved experience with HealthCare.gov?
Inquiring mind want know.

Mirco
_______________________________________________

Hi Mirco, I haven't tried it myself, but I am hearing mixed reviews.  I did
go in and work their anonymous-shopper feature, which does exactly what we
were discussing here: just estimate prices depending on one's anticipated
income and state.  The results of that told me what I already knew: these
prices are waaaay above what I was paying before, and it is way cheaper to
buy the risk and pay the fine for the first couple years at least, even
assuming one chooses to pay it.  I am choosing to stay out for now.

I am reading what the medics and insurance people are saying: the process is
causing adverse selection to kick into high gear.  This will cause the
clientele of doctors to be much older and sicker and the insurance rates to
go up sharply next year.

I have heard that the repairs have been primarily to the front end: the user
experience is better now, but the application information from the site to
the insurance companies is still about the same as before: somehow it is
incomplete or garbled in the transmission.  This will allow the insurance
companies to do data-mining on applicants to discover if they have some
condition which would make them an undesirable customer, which then allows
the insurance company to decide which applications have been delivered with
corrupted data.  The data is still not encrypted: anything you tell
Healthcare.gov becomes the equivalent of public domain information.  Ready
to proceed?

In any case, I would think that had HealthCare.gov initially had this
anonymous-shopper feature working to start with, they never would have had
all these problems.  Surely there were others doing the same thing I did:
try to set up a pseudonym account to find out what the costs would be, in
order to do retirement planning.  If I believe what I read in the press,
this feature worked all along, being one of the few components that did work
properly. (it is very simple so no surprise there.)  The decision was made
very deliberately by the government to turn off that feature.  They didn't
want the customers seeing those prices without being able to see all these
wonderful government subsidies available.  Consequently, proletariat hordes
went to the site looking for price quotes, which caused the crash.  They
didn't want healthy people going there and doing what I did: comparing our
current price with the new price and deciding with no further investigation
to just pay the fine, even if that action risks a retaliatory IRS audit.  I
personally am not so much at risk: I will already be on the list for a
retaliatory IRS audit just from what I have posted on the internet, but if I
get one, mine will likely be pretty boring: I have no deductions and just
fill in the blanks using TurboTax.

The promised subsidy is nearly worthless, for it is a promise by the same
government which promised 34 times that if you like your current plan you
can keep your current plan, and if you like your current doctor you can keep
your current doctor (period end of story.)  Turns out this is not true
period end of story.  So we get a half-hearted apology.  What if one signs
up for one of these plans assuming this promised subsidy, and the government
(which still hasn't managed to pass a budget in years) decides to not pay
those subsidies, or underpays?  What do we get then?  Another apology?  

The nightmare begins: the news agencies can trot out case after case of sick
people who had years invested in their doctor, who had insurance companies
who were paying, but whose policies were cancelled and the policies
available will not cover their previous doctor, in whom they had years of
investment and personal relationships.  The news agencies will feature prime
time interviews with people who will say they have given up and must now let
nature takes its course, goodbye cruel world, and will my government please
have mercy on me and end my suffering, send an agent to my house to shoot
me, etc.  News agencies love this kind of thing.

And what happens to those subsidies when the other party takes over, the
party which was saying all along this program will not work, the party which
voted in perfect unanimity against it?  Do you suppose the other party will
pay those subsidies?  Is it not easy enough to foresee what will happen in
the upcoming elections in November 2014?

spike





From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Dec  3 19:41:54 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Tue, 3 Dec 2013 12:41:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Drinking Dinosaur Pee
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwavVoWDP4zN__tc_wNvkcFKrJakaDPTRy1BXPkfO6++Fg@mail.gmail.com>

This is very well researched and documented. It has a lot of interesting
numbers in it that in my experience are difficult to come by.
http://what-if.xkcd.com/74/
Thought this group would enjoy it.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131203/8428e4f2/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Tue Dec  3 22:47:28 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 03 Dec 2013 22:47:28 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Drinking Dinosaur Pee
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwavVoWDP4zN__tc_wNvkcFKrJakaDPTRy1BXPkfO6++Fg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwavVoWDP4zN__tc_wNvkcFKrJakaDPTRy1BXPkfO6++Fg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <529E5F80.70000@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-03 19:41, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> This is very well researched and documented. It has a lot of 
> interesting numbers in it that in my experience are difficult to come by.
> http://what-if.xkcd.com/74/
> Thought this group would enjoy it.

Indeed.

I have been thinking of writing up an approximate visualisation of where 
atoms formerly part of me have ended up. His point about residence time 
is interesting: my formerly internal water molecules are mostly found in 
the upper layers of the ocean and as a very thin layer on glaciers, they 
have not yet had the time to get mixed into the deep ocean. In the 
atmosphere they are fairly evenly mixed, with a slight north-south 
gradient.

I like soft drink manufacturing. I read a few textbooks and liked the 
engineering. Especially the challenges of making opaque soft drinks 
(neutral buoyancy suspensions that are stable and have a narrowly 
defined size distribution and no bad effect on the drinker).

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Dec  4 13:12:42 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 4 Dec 2013 14:12:42 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Google robots may pose challenge to Amazon drones
Message-ID: <20131204131241.GY10793@leitl.org>


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25212514

Google robots may pose challenge to Amazon drones

By Leo Kelion

Technology reporter

Meka M1 robot

Meka's M1 robot is one of the systems that has been acquired by Google

Google has revealed it has taken over seven robotics companies in the past
half a year and has begun hiring staff to develop its own product.

A spokesman confirmed the effort was being headed up by Andy Rubin, who was
previously in charge of the Android operating system.

The spokesman was unwilling to discuss what kind of robot was being
developed.

But the New York Times reports that at this stage Google does not plan to
sell the resulting product to consumers.

Schaft

Google has hired a team of Japanese engineers who make humanoid robots
Instead, the newspaper suggests, Google's robots could be paired with its
self-driving car research to help automate the delivery of goods to people's
doors.

It notes the company has recently begun a same-day grocery delivery service
in San Francisco and San Jose, called Google Shopping Express.

That would pitch the initiative against Amazon's Prime Air Project, which
envisages using drones to transport goods to its customers by air.

"Any description of what Andy and his team might actually create are
speculations of the author and the people he interviewed," said Google of the
NYT article.

One UK-based expert welcomed the news.

"This is a clear sign that days of personalised robotic technology entering
the mainstream market is imminent," said Prof Sethu Vijayakuma, director of
the Robotics Lab at the University of Edinburgh.

"Movement and sensing systems for robotics technology have made great
strides. Now, with mainstream companies like Google taking up the challenge,
other elements such as robust software integration, standardisation and
modular design will pick up pace."

Industrial Perception robot

Google now owns a company that makes a robot arm designed to handle packaged
goods The search giant's robotics project is based in Palo Alto, California,
and will have an office in Japan - one of the world's leading nations in the
field.

Speaking to the NYT, Mr Rubin said Google had a "10-year vision" for bringing
the effort to fruition.

"I feel with robotics it's a green field," he said.

"We're building hardware, we're building software. We're building systems, so
one team will be able to understand the whole stack."

Meka S2 robot head

Meka's parts have been developed with human-robot interactions in mind The
companies acquired by Google to jumpstart its effort are:

Autofuss - a San Francisco company that employed robotics to create adverts.
It has worked on several campaigns for Google's Nexus-branded products.

Bot & Dolly - a sister company to Autofuss that specialised in precise-motion
robotics and film-making. Its systems were used to make the film Gravity.

Holomni - a Mountain View, California-based company that specialised in
caster wheel modules that could accelerate a vehicle's motion in any
direction.

Industrial Perception - a Palo Alto-headquartered business that focused on
the use of 3D vision-guided robotic technologies to automate the loading and
unloading of trucks, and handle packages.

Meka Robotics - A spin-off from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
(MIT) that built robot parts that appeared friendly and safe to humans. Its
products included heads with big eye sensors, arms and a "humanoid torso".

Redwood Robotics - a San Francisco-based company that focused on creating
next-generation robot arms for use in manufacturing, distribution and service
industries such as healthcare.

Schaft - a spin-off from the University of Tokyo that focused on the creation
and operation of humanoid robots.


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Dec  5 14:03:27 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 5 Dec 2013 09:03:27 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Alcor and Ted Williams
Message-ID: <CAJPayv1p2xzwfBp3ytD1av43QtwXJgqjzFCMaFcoRnhuotKknQ@mail.gmail.com>

In today?s New Your Times is a review of a new biography of Ted Williams,
his "wacky and pathetic? death is mentioned and so is "an outfit called
Alcor? who cut off his head:
======

So the hero gets his head cut off on Page 11. Some baseball book!

Ted Williams, the Red Sox?s midcentury slugger famed for his sweet
left-handed swing as well as for his tempestuous nature, was already
something of a mythic colossus (especially in Boston) before the macabre
events surrounding his death. A sporting god, irascible yet beloved, he was
a vivid and imposing figure, loudmouthed, foul-mouthed, bullying and almost
pathologically self-centered, but with a deep and tender charitable streak
that made him hard to fathom. When he died at 83 on July 5, 2002, after a
decade of declining health, his son arranged to have his head and body
separated, frozen and preserved against the possibility of their revival in
a future age, and the Bunyan-esque Williams legend had its fittingly
sizable, if wacky and pathetic, conclusion.

Beginning and ending ?The Kid: The Immortal Life of Ted Williams,? his new,
cinderblock-size biography, with strikingly precise and colorful reporting
on this far-fetched episode, Ben Bradlee Jr. gains an arch strain of
meaning for the book?s subtitle, which is otherwise meant, I think, not
literally but sincerely. A work of obvious journalistic muscle and
diligence, ?The Kid? provides documentary evidence on every page to bolster
the book?s presumption that Williams was, to use the clich?, larger than
life.

Maybe he was. But Mr. Bradlee is hampered by the incontrovertible fact that
Williams was a significant personage because of his batting feats. And
though he hardly ignores Williams?s years as a player, Mr. Bradlee is not
an especially astute baseball writer. He makes the point again and again ?
and quotes others saying it ? that Williams was arguably the greatest
hitter ever, a student of hitting with a beautiful swing, but provides,
over 800 pages, no satisfying analysis of Williams at bat.

Williams had a career full of astonishing achievements ? he batted .406 in
1941, a figure that hasn?t been approached since, hit 521 home runs in
spite of missing almost five full seasons for military service ? and
moments of thrilling drama. Mr. Bradlee writes about them all, but often by
relying on the newspaper coverage and Williams?s reaction to it, a strategy
that underscores one of Mr. Bradlee?s subjects ? Williams?s stormy
relationship with the press  and the fans ? but that robs his narrative of
its own drama.

The best baseball chapter is a patient recounting of Williams?s
melodramatic and bittersweet final game, in which he homered in his last
time at bat. Even there, though, Mr. Bradlee gives the last word to someone
else, John Updike, who wrote about the game for The New Yorker in a famous
essay, ?Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu.?

Mr. Bradlee acknowledges that he focused away from baseball, on the
elements of Williams?s life that other writers ? and there have been many ?
have left relatively unplumbed. And so we have extended  examinations of
Williams?s childhood in San Diego, where he was the largely neglected child
of an often-absent father and a Mexican mother whose devotion to the
Salvation Army trumped her devotion to young Ted and his brother, Danny
(?Ted was always ashamed of his upbringing,? Chapter 1 portentously
begins); of his war service as a Marine pilot (Mr. Bradlee provides a
riveting reconstruction of Williams?s first combat flight in Korea in 1953,
during which his plane was hit, and he  made a belly landing, skidding
nearly the length of the runway); of his fishing expertise; of his
charitable acts, large and small, public and under the radar, often to
benefit sick children; and, most relentlessly, of his troubled relations
with sportswriters, women ? his three marriages were scarred by his
philandering and the abuse, verbal and possibly physical, of his wives ?
and his three children.

Mr. Bradlee, who was a reporter and editor for The Boston Globe for 25
years (and whose journalistic pedigree descends from his father, the former
executive editor of The Washington Post), writes a graceful sentence and
crafts a cogent paragraph. His authorial attitude is one of restraint,
generally letting the flood of his facts and quotations from interviews
speak for themselves. ?The Kid? has neither the hagiographic sheen of
recent biographies of Yogi Berra and Willie Mays, nor the gleeful
legend-puncturing of Richard Ben Cramer?s celebrated portrait of Joe
DiMaggio.

But Mr. Bradlee?s evenhanded thoroughness ultimately does his subject ? who
was ostentatiously thin-skinned and constitutionally unable, it seems, to
contain his anger ? no favors. Yes, Williams is shown to be intellectually
curious, often quick-minded and sometimes acutely self-aware; he was a
supporter of Jackie Robinson, Larry Doby and other black players, but
wondered, when his career was over, whether he had done enough to further
their cause, especially in Boston, where the Red Sox were the last major
league team to integrate. But of the many tantrums thrown by Williams in
his lifetime, and the many harsh words uttered by him, Mr. Bradlee seems to
have recorded them all.

During his playing career, his battles with sportswriters, whom he referred
to disdainfully as the ?knights of the keyboard,? resulted in some
remarkable outbursts, but they were also often amusing, the effusions of a
passionate, immature egomaniac. Later, however, he simply grows ugly. The
casual vileness of his remarks to and about his children and to and about
women, including but not restricted to his wives, is breathtaking.

In ?The Kid,? Williams retires as a ballplayer with more than 300 pages to
go. He has a mostly unsuccessful four-year stint as manager of the
Washington Senators and, when the team migrated south, the Texas Rangers,
and there are various business enterprises, awards and fishing trips to be
recounted.

But until Mr. Bradlee returns to the galloping science fiction story of
Williams?s last day ? which begins at his home in Citrus Hills, Fla., and
ends in Scottsdale, Ariz., where his body was transported by private plane
and the technicians at an outfit called Alcor cut off his head ? we mostly
find ourselves in the presence of a swaggering, insecure celebrity, aging
unpleasantly, swinging from neediness to self-aggrandizement to high
dudgeon.

It?s difficult company to keep, though it helps, I imagine, if you?re a Red
Sox fan.

A version of this review appears in print on December 5, 2013, on page C9
of the New York edition with the headline: That Splendid Swing, and Yet So
Many Errors.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131205/74bfc852/attachment.html>

From msd001 at gmail.com  Thu Dec  5 14:21:21 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Thu, 5 Dec 2013 09:21:21 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Alcor and Ted Williams
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1p2xzwfBp3ytD1av43QtwXJgqjzFCMaFcoRnhuotKknQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1p2xzwfBp3ytD1av43QtwXJgqjzFCMaFcoRnhuotKknQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbLLpviMd4XMKe34g8LeYVDxY+g3aUCdned_GVc5zkp7sQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 9:03 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> In today?s New Your Times is a review of a new biography of Ted Williams,
> his "wacky and pathetic? death is mentioned and so is "an outfit called
> Alcor? who cut off his head:
> ======
>
> Mr. Bradlee, who was a reporter and editor for The Boston Globe for 25
> years (and whose journalistic pedigree descends from his father, the former
> executive editor of The Washington Post), writes a graceful sentence and
> crafts a cogent paragraph. His authorial attitude is one of restraint,
> generally letting the flood of his facts and quotations from interviews
> speak for themselves. ?The Kid? has neither the hagiographic sheen of
> recent biographies of Yogi Berra and Willie Mays, nor the gleeful
> legend-puncturing of Richard Ben Cramer?s celebrated portrait of Joe
> DiMaggio.
>
>
I wonder how many Red Sox fans are already familiar with the term
"hagiographic"

I know that wasn't your point, but I read that as an indicator that the
author is more on a rant than trying to inform or educate anyone.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131205/ea0bb0e8/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Sat Dec  7 05:25:46 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 6 Dec 2013 21:25:46 -0800
Subject: [ExI] note from 23andme
Message-ID: <002401cef30c$c8b90990$5a2b1cb0$@att.net>

 

 

Hey check this:

 

Comments?

 


	

 



http://image.exct.net/lib/fe6a15707267067f7710/m/1/header.png




Dear 23andMe Customers, 

I'm writing to update you on our conversation with the U.S. Food and Drug
Administration and how it impacts you. 

If you are a customer whose kit was purchased before November 22, 2013, your
23andMe experience will not change. You will be able to access both ancestry
and health-related information as you always have. 

23andMe has complied with the FDA's directive and stopped offering new
consumers access to health-related genetic results while the company moves
forward with the agency's regulatory review processes. Be sure to refer to
our
<http://cl.exct.net/?qs=3e23636e33aeb24192fe68363d71666f8185b25a34c87a66338a
4d47c3acdfb7d6ff010f6b00f3a9> 23andMe blog for updates. 

We stand behind the data we have generated for customers. Our lab partner
adheres to strict quality standards that are part of the
<http://cl.exct.net/?qs=3e23636e33aeb2416ddf1775d7482b1625f3b055b41fca8798fd
caa1c03f828dd08eab632889117d> Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments of
1988 - known as CLIA. These are the same standards used in the majority of
other health and disease-related tests. 

You are among the first people in the world to ever get access to their
genomes. You are genetic pioneers. Thank you for your ongoing support and we
look forward to continuing to serve you. 

Anne Wojcicki
Co-founder and CEO, 23andMe 




  _____  



You are receiving this email because you are a member of 23andMe. 

23andMe, Inc.
1390 Shorebird Way
Mountain View, CA, 94043
USA

	

 
<http://cl.exct.net/?qs=3e23636e33aeb241dc760358a1c95fbc8e918bcbf3da82e7b8d1
4c701c20ac17c9e297e3eca6561b> update your 23andMe email preferences |
<http://cl.exct.net/?qs=9f9179b05bdd2fd1bef380585d83fc6788e8b2957a5d60cbb652
cefd965267c74f48f89d873fa49c> unsubscribe from 23andMe news and updates
emails

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131206/2e19ca73/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.png
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 4133 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131206/2e19ca73/attachment.obj>

From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Dec  7 10:08:03 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 7 Dec 2013 10:08:03 +0000
Subject: [ExI] note from 23andme
In-Reply-To: <002401cef30c$c8b90990$5a2b1cb0$@att.net>
References: <002401cef30c$c8b90990$5a2b1cb0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhgaY+4oq7NTu=+rF39+GEEgvYHPcfrGJPjF-sbFyLVkg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Dec 7, 2013 at 5:25 AM, spike wrote:
> Hey check this:
> Comments?
>
>
> Dear 23andMe Customers,
>
> I'm writing to update you on our conversation with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration
> and how it impacts you.
>
> If you are a customer whose kit was purchased before November 22, 2013,
> your 23andMe experience will not change. You will be able to access both
> ancestry and health-related information as you always have.
>
> 23andMe has complied with the FDA's directive and stopped offering new consumers
> access to health-related genetic results while the company moves forward with
> the agency's regulatory review processes. Be sure to refer to our 23andMe blog for updates.
>
>


And now they are being sued.
<http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/12/23andme-bows-to-fda-drops-all-medical-information-from-new-tests/>

Quote:
23andMe bows to FDA, drops all medical information from new tests
Company had already pulled ads, and now it faces a class-action lawsuit.
by John Timmer - Dec 6 2013

After a partial attempt to get the Food and Drug Administration to
ease up on its complaints, the personal genetics company 23andMe took
a rather substantial step yesterday: it pulled all medically relevant
information from its site, replacing its normal home page with a
disclaimer.

A class-action lawsuit was filed against 23andMe in a California
federal court, claiming that everyone who purchased one of the test
kits did so under fraudulent promises. Noting that 23andMe promised
medical information but hadn't validated those claims to the FDA's
satisfaction, the suit claims that the company's product "does none of
those things, and the results it provides are not supported by any
scientific evidence."
------------


(Of course, in sue-happy USA that doesn't necessarily mean the action
has much chance of success. But 23andMe is well-financed and the
complainants may be hoping to get paid a lot of money just to go
away).


BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Sat Dec  7 16:42:10 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 7 Dec 2013 08:42:10 -0800
Subject: [ExI] note from 23andme
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhgaY+4oq7NTu=+rF39+GEEgvYHPcfrGJPjF-sbFyLVkg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <002401cef30c$c8b90990$5a2b1cb0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhgaY+4oq7NTu=+rF39+GEEgvYHPcfrGJPjF-sbFyLVkg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00cb01cef36b$472413c0$d56c3b40$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] note from 23andme

On Sat, Dec 7, 2013 at 5:25 AM, spike wrote:
> Hey check this:
> Comments?
>
>>... Dear 23andMe Customers,
>
>>... I'm writing to update you on our conversation with the U.S. Food and
Drug Administration and how it impacts you.

>...And now they are being sued.
<http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/12/23andme-bows-to-fda-drops-all-medica
l-information-from-new-tests/>

Quote:
>>...23andMe bows to FDA, drops all medical information from new tests
Company had already pulled ads, and now it faces a class-action lawsuit.

...
------------

>...(Of course, in sue-happy USA that doesn't necessarily mean the action
has much chance of success. But 23andMe is well-financed and the
complainants may be hoping to get paid a lot of money just to go
away)...BillK
_______________________________________________

BillK, the irony in all this is astonishing.  If you look over what 23
promised, I see nothing in there all that outrageous or overly ambitious.
For what little 23's willing customers paid and considering all that 23
delivered, one seldom sees such a bargain.  I am thinking back a decade or
two and can think of nothing in its class for value, nothing.  Now 23 is
being sued.  If businesses are held to such high standards for what they can
claim and what they can advertise, why not the government?  

Compare that to politicians please.  They are perfectly free to promise
whatever they want, regardless of how unbelievable and outrageous.  They get
elected on the basis of these promises, then when it is discovered they are
lying, there is nothing analogous to a lawsuit any company would face for
false advertising.  Recalls are seldom used, and impeachment doesn't apply
to that situation.  The ACA was sold to the American voters under blatantly
false pretenses, clearly false advertising, no ambiguity at all.  We were
told we could keep our current insurance if we wished, but many plans are
not compliant so we don't get to keep those.  Our own elected government
lied repeatedly, period end of story.  Yet the same government which
perpetrated that fraud goes after the private business which delivered
plenty on what it was selling for a very low price with very modest claims.

Oy vey.

spike




From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Dec  7 17:02:35 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 7 Dec 2013 09:02:35 -0800
Subject: [ExI] note from 23andme
In-Reply-To: <00cb01cef36b$472413c0$d56c3b40$@att.net>
References: <002401cef30c$c8b90990$5a2b1cb0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhgaY+4oq7NTu=+rF39+GEEgvYHPcfrGJPjF-sbFyLVkg@mail.gmail.com>
 <00cb01cef36b$472413c0$d56c3b40$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTFLMCZUzQUCaotYXVC3=WsOpFD6N-Sqt+06n6-NfMaDQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Dec 7, 2013 at 8:42 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Compare that to politicians please.  They are perfectly free to promise
> whatever they want, regardless of how unbelievable and outrageous.  They
> get
> elected on the basis of these promises, then when it is discovered they are
> lying, there is nothing analogous to a lawsuit any company would face for
> false advertising.  Recalls are seldom used, and impeachment doesn't apply
> to that situation.
>

Indeed, I do believe several members of Congress could do with recalls over
the near-default they imposed.  And in general recalls should be more of an
option when politicians show a sustained history of messing up and not
acting in the interests of those who elected them.  (Not for one single
act, though that can be the trigger.  But those who consistently vote to
moneyed interests instead of what's best for the people who voted for
them...)
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131207/8c602fb0/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Sat Dec  7 17:25:31 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 7 Dec 2013 09:25:31 -0800
Subject: [ExI] note from 23andme
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTFLMCZUzQUCaotYXVC3=WsOpFD6N-Sqt+06n6-NfMaDQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <002401cef30c$c8b90990$5a2b1cb0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhgaY+4oq7NTu=+rF39+GEEgvYHPcfrGJPjF-sbFyLVkg@mail.gmail.com>
 <00cb01cef36b$472413c0$d56c3b40$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNTFLMCZUzQUCaotYXVC3=WsOpFD6N-Sqt+06n6-NfMaDQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <015e01cef371$55850cc0$008f2640$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Subject: Re: [ExI] note from 23andme

 

On Sat, Dec 7, 2013 at 8:42 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

 

>>.Compare that to politicians please.  Recalls are seldom used, and
impeachment doesn't apply
to that situation.

 

>.Indeed, I do believe several members of Congress could do with recalls
over the near-default they imposed.

 

Not several, all.  Not recall, but rather, use the election coming in less
than a year.  Elect alternatives to all of them, every one.  This elected
group is a failure.  This house, this senate, this president, all failures.
Send them all home at the first opportunity.

 

Regarding default, plenty of us have looked these numbers and realized that
eventual default by the US Fed in some form is inevitable.  We have promised
all these benefits, collected the money, borrowed and spent it, passing the
burden on to future generations, assuming they will be richer and better
able to pay than previous generations.  That worked until they weren't
anymore, which is now.  So some form of default is as inevitable as the
winter snows.  I suspect the default will be in the form of granting social
security recipients and other government pensioners COLA adjustments of 1 or
2 percent a year, when real inflation is 10 to 20 percent.  That goes on for
years, forming a virtual slow-motion default, while the Fed can pretend to
still be paying its bills.  We will be left holding the bag.

 

In the meantime, I would recommend to the Chinese and Japanese, and anyone
else lending money to the Fed to stop that forthwith.  If they want to
invest their American money in the USA, they should be buying real estate,
specifically in California where the taxes are relatively low.  Some of them
have already caught on and are doing that.

 

spike

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131207/b762665a/attachment.html>

From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Dec  7 18:48:01 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 7 Dec 2013 10:48:01 -0800
Subject: [ExI] note from 23andme
In-Reply-To: <015e01cef371$55850cc0$008f2640$@att.net>
References: <002401cef30c$c8b90990$5a2b1cb0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhgaY+4oq7NTu=+rF39+GEEgvYHPcfrGJPjF-sbFyLVkg@mail.gmail.com>
 <00cb01cef36b$472413c0$d56c3b40$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNTFLMCZUzQUCaotYXVC3=WsOpFD6N-Sqt+06n6-NfMaDQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <015e01cef371$55850cc0$008f2640$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQuDv-LqR44m2H-cQxbgFYhRUV3a63o2heFVEnQqhVgrw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Dec 7, 2013 at 9:25 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Not several, all.  Not recall, but rather, use the election coming in less
> than a year.  Elect alternatives to all of them, every one.  This elected
> group is a failure.  This house, this senate, this president, all
> failures.  Send them all home at the first opportunity.
>

How do you propose to do this?  Especially in districts that are openly
hostile to our attitudes.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131207/d48d0eb5/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Sat Dec  7 19:05:41 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 7 Dec 2013 11:05:41 -0800
Subject: [ExI] note from 23andme
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQuDv-LqR44m2H-cQxbgFYhRUV3a63o2heFVEnQqhVgrw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <002401cef30c$c8b90990$5a2b1cb0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhgaY+4oq7NTu=+rF39+GEEgvYHPcfrGJPjF-sbFyLVkg@mail.gmail.com>
 <00cb01cef36b$472413c0$d56c3b40$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNTFLMCZUzQUCaotYXVC3=WsOpFD6N-Sqt+06n6-NfMaDQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <015e01cef371$55850cc0$008f2640$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNQuDv-LqR44m2H-cQxbgFYhRUV3a63o2heFVEnQqhVgrw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <01bf01cef37f$534107d0$f9c31770$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Sent: Saturday, December 07, 2013 10:48 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] note from 23andme

 

On Sat, Dec 7, 2013 at 9:25 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>>.Not several, all.  Not recall, but rather, use the election coming in
less than a year.  Elect alternatives to all of them, every one.  This
elected group is a failure.  This house, this senate, this president, all
failures.  Send them all home at the first opportunity.

 

>.How do you propose to do this?  Especially in districts that are openly
hostile to our attitudes.

 

 

All we can do is all we can do.  Vote against incumbents.  Choose
challengers who run against the status quo.  There will be plenty of
challengers in every party who will be offering alternatives to the failed
attempt at a federally controlled health care, which I think will be a
critical issue in '14.  There will be those who will be open and honest, and
run on a platform which says that there are parts of the ACA which are
salvageable.  I cannot think of a good example right off the top of my head,
but somewhere in those thousands of pages of law we can likely find things
that should be saved.  Start there.  

 

That bit about federal subsidies for health care, they will not come thru
with that.  Requiring everyone to buy policies which cover birth control and
abortion, forget it.  

 

Factor of 3 delta between lowest risk and highest risk pools?  Dream on,
never happen, the young won't buy.

 

Set the states responsible for qualification and licensing of physicians,
and have each state set their own standards according to their own state's
needs and resources.  If they want to import European doctors with foreign
credentials, have the states decide what constitutes a doctor.  Don't allow
the Fed any say in that matter.

 

Have the states decide what therapies and treatments for which they want to
make laws.  

 

Have the states do subsidies for the poor.

 

Get the law business out of the health business at every opportunity: they
only do harm, seldom good.

 

That sort of thing.

 

spike

 

    

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131207/c6213294/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Sat Dec  7 23:29:44 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 7 Dec 2013 15:29:44 -0800
Subject: [ExI] FW: notice to historians of Soviet space re: plagairism
In-Reply-To: <20131207144534.170237c00s5ryajy@webmail2.webhero.com>
References: <20131207144534.170237c00s5ryajy@webmail2.webhero.com>
Message-ID: <02ba01cef3a4$36635a30$a32a0e90$@att.net>


Forwarded for Robert Kennedy:


-----Original Message-----
From: Robert G Kennedy III, PE [mailto:robot at ultimax.com] 
Subject: Fwd: notice to historians of Soviet space re: plagairism

Dear Spike,

would you please re-post this to the Extropians list on my behalf? My
provider is still fighting with your provider, and the trouble seemed to
involve looking up a misconfigured CNAME value on my end...

Thanks,

Robert

--
Robert G Kennedy III, PE
www.ultimax.com





----- Forwarded message from robot at ultimax.com -----
     Date: Thu, 14 Nov 2013 13:11:49 -0600
     From: "Robert G Kennedy III, PE" <robot at ultimax.com>
  Subject: Fwd: notice to historians of Soviet space

[snip]

I am bringing a professional matter to your attention as an editor.

My co-author, Dr Dwayne Day, and I investigated the plagiarism of our  
Soviet space history work (a specialty of ours) which first ran in Air  
& Space/Smithsonian in Jan 2010. The plagiarized material appeared in  
Ars Technica's website this summer, was brought to our attention, and  
investigated by us.  It has since been removed by Ars Technica, along  
with all the other work by that writer, Ms. Amy Shira Teitel.

We recently described the results of our investigation on the Space  
Review. We also showed that she plagiarized about ten other space  
historians, including the prominent author, Andy Chaikin. The website  
DVICE.com removed that article also (having to do with Lunokhod).

See http://thespacereview.com/article/2394/1 .

-- 
Robert G Kennedy III, PE
www.ultimax.com

-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Plagiarism_in_Ars_Technica_final&arrows-04Nov13.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 116378 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131207/d4254c40/attachment.pdf>

From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Sun Dec  8 18:04:45 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan Ust)
Date: Sun, 8 Dec 2013 10:04:45 -0800
Subject: [ExI] State Aid To Science?
Message-ID: <6D06B039-6C5E-4C38-AC28-60416949CDD2@yahoo.com>

http://ow.ly/ryxBU

Regards,

Dan
 "Medea's Gift," a thriller set in the far south seas: http://t.co/rPiCZJKVrl 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131208/2c28a9ae/attachment.html>

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Dec 10 07:12:55 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Tue, 10 Dec 2013 00:12:55 -0700
Subject: [ExI] FDA Tells Google-Backed 23andMe to Halt DNA Test Service
In-Reply-To: <022001ceed31$62a78810$27f69830$@att.net>
References: <CAM5aL2cAhx7sgDXtGeubSwK7g-CUWErZqxrJLQbu=XoA_N+-_w@mail.gmail.com>
 <529446D9.7080501@infinitefaculty.org>
 <CAL_armgkyVCYqSg6vWO0QHJ2xv3k1cPz+HukVfcB2eq_y928xw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAOJFdbK+wCTfRfvYHBb__HpJ7ccDGrKGHXWJkJj_qT1y8b+axw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwYPEr_ostSTz+8fP7fKpDDtKMh-c2gqyspHGYLErjECDg@mail.gmail.com>
 <022001ceed31$62a78810$27f69830$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwbzwjphUrV45VUrbG70MvoKALqxHbvG6CUsBsZygprcNA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Nov 29, 2013 at 11:32 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
> >?Perhaps they should take a page from the book used by the sex toys
> industry?
>
>
>
> Hmmmmm, OK.  {8-]  But don?t actually TAKE the page, that would ruin one
> of my favorite books.
>
>
>
>
>
> >?All they would have to do is say, "This is for entertainment purposes
> only. Not meant to really diagnose a damn thing." ?
>
>
>
> Kelly I think you are onto a good idea here.
>

I don't know if anyone has mentioned it, but there is now a class action
lawsuit against 23 and me.

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131210/79c320dd/attachment.html>

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Dec 10 19:13:41 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Tue, 10 Dec 2013 12:13:41 -0700
Subject: [ExI] 1000 MPH Rocket Car
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwbsALrOMRb=uh87HqtM4pkdtoRWLHjbZJhFk88Qw7RaUg@mail.gmail.com>

There is another attempt at the land speed record in the works.
http://www.bloodhoundssc.com/

The interesting thing for us perhaps is that they are using 3D printers to
fabricate some parts for this monster. Also, they are taking a not quite
open source, but open approach to their design. I haven't seen where they
have their plans publicly available or anything, but it might be out there
somewhere.

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131210/9b87d693/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Wed Dec 11 04:44:28 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 10 Dec 2013 20:44:28 -0800
Subject: [ExI] online resources for identifying symbols
Message-ID: <062501cef62b$ada37380$08ea5a80$@att.net>

 

 

Any ideas for how to use Google or any other resource to identify this
symbol?

 



 

 

It might be some kind of native American or native Mexican symbol.  In the
area of artificial intelligence, being able to identify something like this
would be impressive indeed.

 

spike

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131210/915e57c7/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.jpg
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 9191 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131210/915e57c7/attachment.obj>

From anders at aleph.se  Wed Dec 11 09:53:01 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2013 09:53:01 +0000
Subject: [ExI] online resources for identifying symbols
In-Reply-To: <062501cef62b$ada37380$08ea5a80$@att.net>
References: <062501cef62b$ada37380$08ea5a80$@att.net>
Message-ID: <52A835FD.1080509@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-11 04:44, spike wrote:
>
> It might be some kind of native American or native Mexican symbol.  In 
> the area of artificial intelligence, being able to identify something 
> like this would be impressive indeed.
>

Well, Google image search can search by image: try clicking the little 
camera on https://encrypted.google.com/imghp

In this case it did not find anything, although it did pick up on the 
diamond-shaped vaguely native pattern and suggested some quilts. That 
suggests some mildly clever image recognition, not just looking for 
similar colors and hashes.


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131211/15ed73f4/attachment.html>

From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Wed Dec 11 16:43:56 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan Ust)
Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2013 08:43:56 -0800
Subject: [ExI] FDA Tells Google-Backed 23andMe to Halt DNA Test Service
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwbzwjphUrV45VUrbG70MvoKALqxHbvG6CUsBsZygprcNA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAM5aL2cAhx7sgDXtGeubSwK7g-CUWErZqxrJLQbu=XoA_N+-_w@mail.gmail.com>
 <529446D9.7080501@infinitefaculty.org>
 <CAL_armgkyVCYqSg6vWO0QHJ2xv3k1cPz+HukVfcB2eq_y928xw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAOJFdbK+wCTfRfvYHBb__HpJ7ccDGrKGHXWJkJj_qT1y8b+axw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwYPEr_ostSTz+8fP7fKpDDtKMh-c2gqyspHGYLErjECDg@mail.gmail.com>
 <022001ceed31$62a78810$27f69830$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbzwjphUrV45VUrbG70MvoKALqxHbvG6CUsBsZygprcNA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <FC6632E2-E195-42A8-9F1E-3110766EFD75@yahoo.com>


On Dec 9, 2013, at 11:12 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Fri, Nov 29, 2013 at 11:32 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>> >?Perhaps they should take a page from the book used by the sex toys industry? 
>> 
>> Hmmmmm, OK.  {8-]  But don?t actually TAKE the page, that would ruin one of my favorite books.  
>> 
>> >?All they would have to do is say, "This is for entertainment purposes only. Not meant to really diagnose a damn thing." ?
>> 
>> Kelly I think you are onto a good idea here. 
>> 
> 
> I don't know if anyone has mentioned it, but there is now a class action lawsuit against 23 and me.

When I first read that, I thought there was a law against you and the number 23. ;)

Isn't everyone here glad we have an FDA to protect us?

Regards,

Dan
 "Medea's Gift," a thriller set in the far south seas: http://t.co/rPiCZJKVrl 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131211/7ec5dc7e/attachment.html>

From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Wed Dec 11 16:29:17 2013
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2013 11:29:17 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Extreme observational astronomy
Message-ID: <201312111700.rBBH0C28018515@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

<http://www.gizmag.com/darpa-folding-telescope/30039/>
DARPA developing giant folding space telescope

Not bad. But I'm impatient for the telescopes to come, e.g., extreme 
space-based astronomical interferometry, with an effective diameter 
measured in AU.

Q: Assume Drexlerian molecular nanotechnology. If you took apart the 
solar system for raw materials, what is the largest effective 
diameter telescope you could create? What would its capabilities be?


-- David.



From anders at aleph.se  Wed Dec 11 19:43:12 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2013 19:43:12 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Extreme observational astronomy
In-Reply-To: <201312111700.rBBH0C28018515@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201312111700.rBBH0C28018515@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <52A8C050.5030400@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-11 16:29, David Lubkin wrote:
> Q: Assume Drexlerian molecular nanotechnology. If you took apart the 
> solar system for raw materials, what is the largest effective diameter 
> telescope you could create? What would its capabilities be?
>
There are two parameters: light bucket area and aperture. The resolution 
is set by the aperture, the faintness of what you can see by the area. 
So if you spread your telescope across lightyears you can see amazingly 
fine detail, even if the area is small (but then the details better be 
bright, of course).

Let's see. The mass of the solar system is around 2*10^30 kg, with 0.4% 
carbon (the most abundant element I can imagine making a telescope of). 
So that is 8*10^27 kg carbon. If we turned it all into graphene sheets 
(0.77e-6 kg/m^2) we would get 10^34 m^2. That is around 10x10 
lightyears. Now a single graphene sheet is pretty transparent (absorbs 
2.3% of light), but if we layer them at careful wavelength intervals the 
optical depth goes up a lot. So let's say we have ten layers: now we 
still have about 10 square lightyears.

Compare to Hubble (aperture 2.4 m, area 4.5 m^2, can see object of the 
31st magnitude). The solar telescope has 2*10^32 times the area, and 
would even as a single circular surface have an aperture 4*10^16 times 
wider. So it could see objects of magnitude 31+5*log10(aperture/Hubble 
aperture)=114 if I calculate right.

Hubble has a spatial resolution in visible light of 0.1 arcsec, but the 
big telescope can see 2.5e-18 arcsec objects. A one millimeter object at 
distance x meters has an angular size of 0.001/x radians, or 206/x 
arcseconds. So the big telescope can see such objects at a distance of 
8.24*10^19 meters, or 8240 lightyears. Over that distance the distance 
modulus of magnitude is just 12 magnitudes, so the telescope can still 
see objects of absolute magnitude 102. That corresponds to  around 
5*10^-13 Watts emitted by the object. This is essentially what you would 
get from very dim streetlight shining into a dark room: that telescope 
can read alien newspapers in the dark.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From sjv2006 at gmail.com  Wed Dec 11 21:00:28 2013
From: sjv2006 at gmail.com (Stephen Van Sickle)
Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2013 13:00:28 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Extreme observational astronomy
In-Reply-To: <201312111700.rBBH0C28018515@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201312111700.rBBH0C28018515@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <CADYziYDmaXXxtD3n2rJhjhCkmiSA729pyCd=9so2Ark1AjPOyg@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Dec 11, 2013 at 8:29 AM, David Lubkin <lubkin at unreasonable.com>wrote:

Q: Assume Drexlerian molecular nanotechnology. If you took apart the solar
> system for raw materials, what is the largest effective diameter telescope
> you could create? What would its capabilities be?
>

How about a gravitation focus telescope?  As I understand, the solar focus
starts at about 550 AU and extends usefully out to 1000 AU or more.  It is
a focal line rather than focal point, and extends along the line made by
the sun and the target object.  So the light detector could be a 500 AU
tether with EM sensors along its length, pointing at the Sun at one end,
and The Rest of the Universe at the other.  At 1 mg/meter mass, the tether
would be roughly 100,000 tons.

Now multiply that, with tethers pointing inward towards the sun and
outward, kinda like a sea urchin.  At 1 for every square kilometer of a
sphere at 550 AU, the total mass would be around 10^30 kg (assuming I
counted the zeros right, by no means a sure thing), roughly the mass of the
Sun.   But 1 tether every 1000 or 1000000 km^2 would put it in the range of
the mass of some planets.  And it need not be built round our sun, some
other systems may be better suited.  The resolution and light gathering
ability I leave as an exercise for the Student.  The engineering details, I
leave as an exercise for my post-human self.

As a guess, I would think that the resolution is considerably less than
that of Ander's design, but it would be collecting data from all directions
simultaneously rather than narrowly focused.  An All Seeing Eye.

Now, to extend this, in time honored extropian fashion:  You can have not
only EM detectors along the length of the tethers, but EM emitters.  Could
this not make a giant phased array transmitter, using the total power of
the central star, as collected by a Dyson swarm? Then, if you find any
aliens, you can send a message detectable with with whatever the alien
equivalent of fillings are.  Then you can use the phased array to send out
a power beam for sail probes to visit. Or, possibly, to fry the planet of
your potential competitors.

Now, of course, the Dyson swarm is an array of computronium, Thinking Deep
Thoughts on what the sea urchin array is seeing.  After a while of doing
this, not long in astronomical time, the self replicating probes the sea
urchin array have sent out start arriving at their destinations and build
their own Dyson swarms and sea urchin arrays.  In less than a million
years, the entire galaxy is not only a extra large size packet switch array
of computronium, but a galaxy sized telescope and phased array transmitter,
snooping on the neighbors and sending out the occasional Kardashev class 3
"Howdy, there!" to likely looking galaxies.

I will stop there, lest even my head spontaneously detonate.

s
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131211/1bcfe707/attachment.html>

From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Dec 11 21:25:49 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2013 21:25:49 +0000
Subject: [ExI] How to tame hurricanes
Message-ID: <CAL_armhicE3H_3fCDHPgAxeg6oW4p4eWtGtiCr2YSqk0m5_gUQ@mail.gmail.com>

Offshore Wind Farms Could Protect Cities from Hurricanes
Published: December 9th, 2013

SAN FRANCISCO ? Giant offshore wind farms could do more than provide
electricity for major cities. They could suck the life and the power
out of hurricanes barrelling toward those cities, too, according to
Stanford University research presented Monday at the American
Geophysical Union fall meeting.

<http://www.climatecentral.org/news/offshore-wind-farms-could-protect-cities-from-hurricanes-16813>

Quote:
Stanford civil and environmental engineering professor Mark Z.
Jacobson and his research team found that if it was feasible to build
tens of thousands of wind power turbines off the shores of some of
America?s cities most vulnerable to extreme weather, those cities
would see lower wind speeds and less severe storm surges from
approaching hurricanes.

The researchers imagined what would have happened if a massive wall of
tens of thousands of wind turbines had been built before hurricanes
Katrina and Sandy and ran computer simulations of both storms with and
without offshore turbines constructed in their paths.

They concluded that the wind turbines could have sapped Katrina of so
much energy that wind speeds would have been reduced by up to 50
percent at landfall and the hurricane's storm surge could have been
reduced by about 72 percent, Jacobson said. It also would have
generated 0.45 terawatts of wind power.
---------------------


It sounds as though he is serious about this proposal.
One obvious problem is that hurricanes tend to destroy wind turbines.
But presumably he can strengthen them and control the gearing to avoid
excess speed.

BillK



From spike66 at att.net  Wed Dec 11 21:23:27 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2013 13:23:27 -0800
Subject: [ExI] online resources for identifying symbols
In-Reply-To: <52A835FD.1080509@aleph.se>
References: <062501cef62b$ada37380$08ea5a80$@att.net>
 <52A835FD.1080509@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <028401cef6b7$3c4e3710$b4eaa530$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
?


Well, Google image search can search by image: try clicking the little
camera on https://encrypted.google.com/imghp

-- 

Dr Anders Sandberg
 
 
 
Thanks Anders!  What a cool toy!  Google is just brilliant.  In all the
sci-fi, no one ever foresaw anything like it that I know of.
 
I fooled around with Google Images doing stuff like giving it only this jpg:
 
 
 
 
 
And it came back with this:
 

Best guess for this image:
<https://encrypted.google.com/search?sa=G&q=drunk+cow&ei=cdWoUoWwFZWFoQS6kIH
YBA&ved=0CCYQvQ4oAA> drunk cow

Search Results

1.    <http://www.drunkcow.com/> Drunk Cow
chrome-extension://mkfokfffehpeedafpekjeddnmnjhmcmk/images/SafeBrowse/sb_saf
eannotation.png

www.drunkcow.com/?

o     

A collection of the most funny, crazy, and controversial adult pictures.

 

Below that was a collection of images of actual cows doing silly faces.  

 

I didn?t get much further than that, because I followed the Drunk Cow site,
which led me with a few deft clicks into a porno site dedicated to besotted
hot messes, the female human variety, passed out nude with their heads in a
waste basket, that kind of thing, definitely good for a classic Epic Fail
kind of derisive laughter.  After I was there a few hours I forgot what I
was searching on, that Indian flag thing or whatever it is, it isn?t nearly
as interesting as drunken cows.

 

spike

 

 

?          

?          

?          

?          

?          

?          

?          

?          

 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131211/e4ef60a3/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.jpg
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 6174 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131211/e4ef60a3/attachment.obj>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image002.png
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 174 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131211/e4ef60a3/attachment-0001.obj>

From anders at aleph.se  Thu Dec 12 00:03:08 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 00:03:08 +0000
Subject: [ExI] How to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhicE3H_3fCDHPgAxeg6oW4p4eWtGtiCr2YSqk0m5_gUQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhicE3H_3fCDHPgAxeg6oW4p4eWtGtiCr2YSqk0m5_gUQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52A8FD3C.3090204@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-11 21:25, BillK wrote:
> They concluded that the wind turbines could have sapped Katrina of so
> much energy that wind speeds would have been reduced by up to 50
> percent at landfall and the hurricane's storm surge could have been
> reduced by about 72 percent, Jacobson said. It also would have
> generated 0.45 terawatts of wind power.
> ---------------------
>
>
> It sounds as though he is serious about this proposal.

Looking at his papers, books and courses, he seems to be serious about 
wind power. Unfortunately I think he is overly optimistic. Check out 
Vaclav Smils' data-dense paper
http://www.vaclavsmil.com/wp-content/uploads/docs/smil-articles-science-energy-ethics-civilization.pdf
where he argues wind can *at most* globally provide 10 TW. Not bad, but 
hardly enough.

Similarly the hurricane-stopping power of windfarms seem implausible. A 
hurricane is a massive heat engine involving the coordinated movement of 
millions of cubic kilometres of air: a low-altitude line of higher drag 
does not seem to be able to efficiently dissipate that much energy (how 
efficient are islands in protecting the coast?) Surely they can act as 
local help just like mangrove swamps, but a 50% decrease? Let's see, 50 
m/s winds carry 1250 W/m^2. So you need to dissipate 625 W/m^2. If we 
take a 50 km stretch of coast and try to block winds up to 100 m, I get 
3.125 GW. A typical turbine in the London Array is 3.6 MW, so we need 
868 of them. Spaced along 50 km that is one every 58 meter. Doesn't 
sound totally absurd (unless I calculated wrong somewhere). I get a 
rough cost of ?4.6 billion ($7.5 billion).

If the above is right, then I do get worried about the effects of 
increasing drag on the global circulation system.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Dec 12 00:18:25 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 00:18:25 +0000
Subject: [ExI] How to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <52A8FD3C.3090204@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armhicE3H_3fCDHPgAxeg6oW4p4eWtGtiCr2YSqk0m5_gUQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <52A8FD3C.3090204@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armi2iBO0nwmwT4vawzW7T7N6SeP_AX8FWcxFapfVJK4U0Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 12:03 AM, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
<snip>
> Similarly the hurricane-stopping power of windfarms seem implausible. A
> hurricane is a massive heat engine involving the coordinated movement of
> millions of cubic kilometres of air: a low-altitude line of higher drag does
> not seem to be able to efficiently dissipate that much energy (how efficient
> are islands in protecting the coast?) Surely they can act as local help just
> like mangrove swamps, but a 50% decrease? Let's see, 50 m/s winds carry 1250
> W/m^2. So you need to dissipate 625 W/m^2. If we take a 50 km stretch of
> coast and try to block winds up to 100 m, I get 3.125 GW. A typical turbine
> in the London Array is 3.6 MW, so we need 868 of them. Spaced along 50 km
> that is one every 58 meter. Doesn't sound totally absurd (unless I
> calculated wrong somewhere). I get a rough cost of ?4.6 billion ($7.5
> billion).
>
> If the above is right, then I do get worried about the effects of increasing
> drag on the global circulation system.
>
>

His simulation used 70,000 turbines. A bit more than 868.

Quote:
Jacobson's Katrina simulations assumed arrays of 70,000 turbines  ?
300 gigawatts of installed power  ? had been built 100 kilometers
offshore southeast of New Orleans and were designed to withstand winds
of up to 50 meters per second, just above the strength of a Category 3
hurricane, or roughly 111 mph.

The simulations showed that the turbines would create a net energy
reduction in the atmosphere, slashing wind speeds as energy was sapped
from the storm and dramatically reducing storm surge, which is caused
by high winds pushing water inland as a hurricane barrels toward the
coast.

Wind speeds would have been reduced enough to allow the wind turbines
to survive the storm themselves, with winds never reaching 50 meters
per second, above which the turbines could topple.
--------------

So he is thinking big indeed. And reinforcing his turbines.
He must be installing them in blocks, rather than a single line.

BillK



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Thu Dec 12 06:53:17 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 01:53:17 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Bitcoin experience
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFjJeT0xLSkusNBrurvEfwXTjOTTL_wZPpE49ggFG3igag@mail.gmail.com>

So, I finally went ahead and tried to buy a bitcoin (and to think that
I first read about bitcoins when they were less than 10$ apiece, and
the blogger was saying "It's either going to get big, or fail
completely, so buy some and see what happens, at worst you lose a few
bucks"). I set up an account at coinbase, bought one bitcoin and ...
four days later received an email saying "We decided to cancel your
transaction, since it appears to be high-risk. You may try again in a
few weeks". I used Tor to connect to coinbase.org, but otherwise
disclosed my regular email account, linked a US bank account, verified
my identity - so what's wrong? Tor? Did anybody here have a similar
experience?

Rafal


From spike66 at att.net  Thu Dec 12 06:48:05 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2013 22:48:05 -0800
Subject: [ExI] online resources for identifying symbols
References: <062501cef62b$ada37380$08ea5a80$@att.net>
 <52A835FD.1080509@aleph.se> 
Message-ID: <049d01cef706$1cdef000$569cd000$@att.net>

 

 

From: spike [mailto:spike66 at att.net] 
.

 
>.I fooled around with Google Images doing stuff like giving it only this
jpg:
 
>. And it came back with this:
 

>.Best guess for this image:
<https://encrypted.google.com/search?sa=G&q=drunk+cow&ei=cdWoUoWwFZWFoQS6kIH
YBA&ved=0CCYQvQ4oAA> drunk cow

 

>.spike

 

 

OK this really has my wheels spinning.  Think about this, you guys who have
been hanging around here for a long time.  Remember when we were discussing
someone secretly using a computer hidden on their body somehow to cheat in a
chess tournament?  OK well that has been done now, but it was lower tech
than we thought.  The player is  Bulgarian Borislav Ivanov.  He had an
iPhone in his shoe and was tapping out the moves with his toe.

 

But this whole cow image bit really has me thinking about another topic we
were discussing perhaps a decade ago: alternative models for the hard
takeoff singularity, or lower case s singularity some were calling it.  The
notion is that software would gradually just get better at human-like stuff
gradually, and be better than humans at some things a long time before other
things.  

 

This is analogous to computer chess in a way.  A long time ago, computers
could play a good game at the really fast speeds and in open positions.  So
a human could beat a computer for a long time if the human would play into
super-closed positions with lots of blocked pawns and long pawn chains.  So
computers gradually got better, but for a long time, you could beat one if
you knew how to play its weaknesses, but if it managed to tear open the
position, forget it, you might as well climb in the coffin and pull the lid
shut behind you.

 

OK then.  We have software that recognizes a cow and that it is an odd
perspective.  I found that response of Drunk Cow as hilarious, but it makes
sense.

 

I gave Google Images a photo of world fourth ranked chess player Kramnik,
Google figured out it was a chess player and found other pictures of him
including the one I pasted in, but didn't actually figure out who it was.
Remarkable!

 

This is a form of artificial intelligence we might suppose, even though it
is code that we can comprehend.

 

This whole thing again has me thinking about singularity scenarios where
software surpasses human abilities in a lot of areas but the big S
Singularity still doesn't happen.

 

Is this a great time to be alive or what?

 

spike

 

 

 

 

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131211/27184bbc/attachment.html>

From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Thu Dec 12 07:05:03 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 02:05:03 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Fwd: [tt] The Habitable Epoch of the Early Universe
In-Reply-To: <20131210164653.GY10793@leitl.org>
References: <20131210164653.GY10793@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFhLKOrbtnck0tGEDXZ6dKrdJev69mH1peMYi6Pz7UboXw@mail.gmail.com>

Interesting, does it mean that the string landscape is more likely to
be real, given that anthropic explanations for the fine tuning of the
cosmological constant are weakened?

Rafal

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org>
Date: Tue, Dec 10, 2013 at 11:46 AM
Subject: [tt] The Habitable Epoch of the Early Universe
To: tt at postbiota.org, astro at postbiota.org



http://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.0613v1.pdf


From spike66 at att.net  Thu Dec 12 07:10:30 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2013 23:10:30 -0800
Subject: [ExI] online resources for identifying symbols
References: <062501cef62b$ada37380$08ea5a80$@att.net>
 <52A835FD.1080509@aleph.se> 
Message-ID: <04ab01cef709$3e7bf340$bb73d9c0$@att.net>

 

 

From: spike [mailto:spike66 at att.net] 
.

 
>>.I fooled around with Google Images doing stuff like giving it only this
jpg:
 
>>. And it came back with this:
 

>>.Best guess for this image:
<https://encrypted.google.com/search?sa=G&q=drunk+cow&ei=cdWoUoWwFZWFoQS6kIH
YBA&ved=0CCYQvQ4oAA> drunk cow

 

 

 

>.OK this really has my wheels spinning.  .spike

 

 

 

Here's a fun and shocking game:  take a selfie, paste the photo into Google
Images and search.  It came back with 24 of the craziest looking yahoos I
ever saw, oy vey.  I don't think I look like any of them.  Do you?  And
what's with the black woman third row last image?  I know I don't look like
her, no way!  She has such pretty white straight teeth.  I see a vague
resemblance to the bottom row, fourth guy, or top row second guy, possibly
third row first guy.  But the rest of these, forget it, I look less like
them than I look like the drunk cow.

 

Others here, do repeat my experiment please, let's see if we can learn
something.

 

spike 

 

 



 

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131211/0b0c8f17/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image003.jpg
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 50000 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131211/0b0c8f17/attachment.obj>

From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Dec 12 12:14:35 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 12:14:35 +0000
Subject: [ExI] online resources for identifying symbols
In-Reply-To: <04ab01cef709$3e7bf340$bb73d9c0$@att.net>
References: <062501cef62b$ada37380$08ea5a80$@att.net>
 <52A835FD.1080509@aleph.se>
 <04ab01cef709$3e7bf340$bb73d9c0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armi4wR+ADYJAUkHVRzFuYLRV73FsCU7wUvmVKt7ieOkYAQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 7:10 AM, spike wrote:
> Here?s a fun and shocking game:  take a selfie, paste the photo into Google Images
> and search.  It came back with 24 of the craziest looking yahoos I ever saw, oy vey.
>  I don?t think I look like any of them.  Do you?  And what?s with the black woman third
> row last image?  I know I don?t look like her, no way!  She has such pretty white straight
> teeth.  I see a vague resemblance to the bottom row, fourth guy, or top row second guy,
> possibly third row first guy.  But the rest of these, forget it, I look less like them than I
> look like the drunk cow.
>
>

Image processing is still a work in progress.

Google says:
When you upload an image to Search by Image, the algorithms analyze
the content of the image and break it down into smaller pieces called
?features?. These features try to capture specific, distinct
characteristics of the image - like textures, colors, and shapes.
Features and their geometric configuration represent the computer?s
understanding of what the image looks like.

These features are then sent to our backend servers and compared
against the billions of images in our index to see if a good match
exists. When the algorithm is very confident that it?s found a
matching image, you?ll see a ?best guess? of what your image is on the
results page. Whether or not we have a best guess, you?ll also see
results for images that are visually similar -- though they may not be
related to your original image.

With the recent launch of the Knowledge Graph, Google is starting to
understand the world the way people do. Instead of treating webpages
as strings of letters like ?dog? or ?kitten,? we can understand the
concepts behind these words. Search by Image now uses the Knowledge
Graph: if you search with an image that we?re able to recognize, you
may see an extra panel of information along with your normal search
results so you can learn more. This could be a biography of a famous
person, information about a plant or animal, or much more.
--------------


So I would say that Google recognised your image as a human face and
matched with other human faces. It then decided that it couldn't find
any exact matches (no other fan pictures of you on the web) and
started working through the features list to get near matches. Colour
seems to be low on the significance priority. As the results are all
full-frontal faces, position and presence of features seems to take
precedence.

There is ongoing research on facial recognition software. NSA, police
and security people are already testing / using this. There is some
opposition to making facial recognition software generally available
on the web, as it would be invaluable to stalkers and trouble makers.
Doing a search using someone's face to find their embarrassing photos
from years past seems to be restricted to security personnel at
present.


BillK



From anders at aleph.se  Thu Dec 12 12:46:17 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 12:46:17 +0000
Subject: [ExI] online resources for identifying symbols
In-Reply-To: <049d01cef706$1cdef000$569cd000$@att.net>
References: <062501cef62b$ada37380$08ea5a80$@att.net>
 <52A835FD.1080509@aleph.se> <049d01cef706$1cdef000$569cd000$@att.net>
Message-ID: <52A9B019.9030001@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-12 06:48, spike wrote:
>
>
> This is analogous to computer chess in a way.  A long time ago, 
> computers could play a good game at the really fast speeds and in open 
> positions.  So a human could beat a computer for a long time if the 
> human would play into super-closed positions with lots of blocked 
> pawns and long pawn chains.  So computers gradually got better, but 
> for a long time, you could beat one if you knew how to play its 
> weaknesses, but if it managed to tear open the position, forget it, 
> you might as well climb in the coffin and pull the lid shut behind you.
>

This is exactly what Kasparov said too. So after Deep Blue  he very much 
took a "if you can't beat em', join em'" view and started freeform 
chess. He is currently interested in constructing smarter ways of 
pooling human and machine intelligence for solving important problems 
(like political decisionmaking).

> This whole thing again has me thinking about singularity scenarios 
> where software surpasses human abilities in a lot of areas but the big 
> S Singularity still doesn't happen.
>

As Damien wrote, besides the Spike there is the Swell. We might get a 
very broad singularity.

If you can use the software to amplify your capabilities or a group can 
do it, then you might get a big S singularity even without AI. Many 
technologies seem to be mutually amplifying: if you can build nanotech 
you can make a lot of computer power to brute-force some classes of 
problem, with lower-case ai you can do a lot of automated engineering 
and research, a bit of intelligence amplification may allow better 
strategizing, and so on. It will be fun to see how it works out.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131212/9ff557ce/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Thu Dec 12 12:48:42 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 12:48:42 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Fwd: [tt] The Habitable Epoch of the Early Universe
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFhLKOrbtnck0tGEDXZ6dKrdJev69mH1peMYi6Pz7UboXw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20131210164653.GY10793@leitl.org>
 <CAAc1gFhLKOrbtnck0tGEDXZ6dKrdJev69mH1peMYi6Pz7UboXw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52A9B0AA.8000303@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-12 07:05, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> Interesting, does it mean that the string landscape is more likely to
> be real, given that anthropic explanations for the fine tuning of the
> cosmological constant are weakened?

Hmm, depends on if you believe the self sampling assumption (SSA) or 
self indication assumption (SIA). SSA would weaken the fine tuning of 
cosmological constant, while I *think* the SIA would not change it. I'll 
ask around the experts in the office.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Dec 12 13:22:49 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 14:22:49 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Fwd: [tt] The Habitable Epoch of the Early Universe
In-Reply-To: <52A9B0AA.8000303@aleph.se>
References: <20131210164653.GY10793@leitl.org>
 <CAAc1gFhLKOrbtnck0tGEDXZ6dKrdJev69mH1peMYi6Pz7UboXw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52A9B0AA.8000303@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20131212132249.GI10793@leitl.org>

On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 12:48:42PM +0000, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> On 2013-12-12 07:05, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> >Interesting, does it mean that the string landscape is more likely to
> >be real, given that anthropic explanations for the fine tuning of the
> >cosmological constant are weakened?
> 
> Hmm, depends on if you believe the self sampling assumption (SSA) or

A theory which starts with beliefs is not much of one.

"All other things equal, an observer should reason as if they are randomly selected from the set of all possible observers."

Self-observation is the opposite of random just as selection
is the opposite of mutation. If the set of
all possible observers is unity across space and/or time
you're still going to observe an arbitrarily improbable
event. It gives you no other information that you exist,
which certainly is something, but not much. 

Out of two cases, where you're common as dirt or rare
as Pt-190 diadem, the monoisotopic diadem will without 
fault find itself in its fine lustrous glory even if it's the
only one in the whole universe.

The random sampling assumption only holds if you're 
omniscient/omnipresent.

I doubt you're God, so no statistics for you. Sorry.

> self indication assumption (SIA). SSA would weaken the fine tuning
> of cosmological constant, while I *think* the SIA would not change
> it. I'll ask around the experts in the office.


From anders at aleph.se  Thu Dec 12 14:13:36 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 14:13:36 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Fwd: [tt] The Habitable Epoch of the Early Universe
In-Reply-To: <20131212132249.GI10793@leitl.org>
References: <20131210164653.GY10793@leitl.org>
 <CAAc1gFhLKOrbtnck0tGEDXZ6dKrdJev69mH1peMYi6Pz7UboXw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52A9B0AA.8000303@aleph.se> <20131212132249.GI10793@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <52A9C490.9030506@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-12 13:22, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 12:48:42PM +0000, Anders Sandberg wrote:
>> Hmm, depends on if you believe the self sampling assumption (SSA) or 
> A theory which starts with beliefs is not much of one.

Hmm. Please show me one without any beliefs beyond the empty theory. 
Remember that axioms are beliefs.

> "All other things equal, an observer should reason as if they are randomly selected from the set of all possible observers."
>
> Self-observation is the opposite of random just as selection
> is the opposite of mutation.

Exactly. This is why anthropics is so headache-inducing: you get biased 
probabilities just by being around, and the two assumptions give 
somewhat contradictory answers to how you should debias your probabilities.

> Out of two cases, where you're common as dirt or rare
> as Pt-190 diadem, the monoisotopic diadem will without
> fault find itself in its fine lustrous glory even if it's the
> only one in the whole universe.

Exactly. And now the diadem needs to think about what probability it 
should assign to the existence of other diadems. The diadem using the 
SSA should think there are a lot of diadems, while the SIA-believer 
diadem should favour theories where there are loads of observers (but 
not necessarily diadems). However, the unique diadem observer is also an 
"anomalous observer" - most observers are by definition common, and they 
would get things more right when reasoning with the SSA.

Reasoning from no data or a single, biased data point will of course on 
average produce much worse fits to reality than reasoning from more 
data. But that doesn't mean it is irrelevant - if you have no data. It 
is better to make the argument clear and the assumptions overt.

Same thing with Bayesian probability: yes, it involves subjective 
judgements (constrained by logic, data and  probability theory), but it 
allows you to think about somewhat important things like Pr(humanity 
going extinct|current actions) that frequentism cannot handle at all.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Dec 12 14:47:22 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 15:47:22 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Fwd: [tt] The Habitable Epoch of the Early Universe
In-Reply-To: <52A9C490.9030506@aleph.se>
References: <20131210164653.GY10793@leitl.org>
 <CAAc1gFhLKOrbtnck0tGEDXZ6dKrdJev69mH1peMYi6Pz7UboXw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52A9B0AA.8000303@aleph.se> <20131212132249.GI10793@leitl.org>
 <52A9C490.9030506@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20131212144722.GJ10793@leitl.org>

On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 02:13:36PM +0000, Anders Sandberg wrote:

> Exactly. And now the diadem needs to think about what probability it
> should assign to the existence of other diadems. The diadem using

If the diadem is honest, it cannot assign any probabilities.

> the SSA should think there are a lot of diadems, while the

The SSA diadem has no basis for that assumption. (It happens
to be the only one, I'm God, and I put it there because
I'm evil that way).

> SIA-believer diadem should favour theories where there are loads of
> observers (but not necessarily diadems). However, the unique diadem

The SIA diadem has no basis for that assumption either. 

> observer is also an "anomalous observer" - most observers are by
> definition common, and they would get things more right when

This is circular logic. You have no idea how common your class is,
until you have an unbiased sample. You do not have an unbiased sample,
hence you have no idea how common you are. Other than there is at least 
one instance of your class, at which point stochastics and probability 
goes down the toilet. No observer-moments for you.

> reasoning with the SSA.
> 
> Reasoning from no data or a single, biased data point will of course
> on average produce much worse fits to reality than reasoning from

But you cannot fit for reality, because you do not know what 
reality is. Circular logic, again. Everything changes with
the second sample. It only changes very little with the third
sample. 

> more data. But that doesn't mean it is irrelevant - if you have no
> data. It is better to make the argument clear and the assumptions
> overt.

I'd wish the arbitrary assumptions would be made very clear.
 
> Same thing with Bayesian probability: yes, it involves subjective
> judgements (constrained by logic, data and  probability theory), but
> it allows you to think about somewhat important things like
> Pr(humanity going extinct|current actions) that frequentism cannot
> handle at all.

I can think about ten impossible things before breakfast.
Just because I can does not make them any more real.


From frankmac at ripco.com  Thu Dec 12 16:12:12 2013
From: frankmac at ripco.com (frank mcelligott)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 09:12:12 -0700
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
Message-ID: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>

In "Blade Runner", the future was depicted as overcrowded cities with rain every hour of every day. Now, one of the pitfalls of wind farms is that these turbines suck the moisture from the surrounding base drying up the soil where they are planted. Of course if they are in an ocean what does that matter, well this moisture being extracted from the ocean has to go somewhere, and although protecting the cities from hurricanes they will change the cloud cover as well. "Rain, rain go away come back some other day" will be a song sung in Miami everyday, but there will not be a worry concerning  hurricanes. As always you pick your poison, but it still is poison.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131212/29fdd446/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Thu Dec 12 16:50:33 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 08:50:33 -0800
Subject: [ExI] google cousins. was: RE: online resources for identifying
	symbols
Message-ID: <005701cef75a$46c33a80$d449af80$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike
Sent: Wednesday, December 11, 2013 11:11 PM
To: 'ExI chat list'
Subject: Re: [ExI] online resources for identifying symbols

 

 

 

From: spike [mailto:spike66 at att.net] 
.

 
 

>>>.Best guess for this image:
<https://encrypted.google.com/search?sa=G&q=drunk+cow&ei=cdWoUoWwFZWFoQS6kIH
YBA&ved=0CCYQvQ4oAA> drunk cow

 

>>.Here's a fun and shocking game:  take a selfie, paste the photo into
Google Images and search.

 

>>.Others here, do repeat my experiment please, let's see if we can learn
something.  Spike

 

 

>.So I would say that Google recognised your image as a human face and
matched with other human faces. It then decided that it couldn't find any
exact matches (no other fan pictures of you on the web) and started working
through the features list to get near matches. Colour seems to be low on the
significance priority. As the results are all full-frontal faces, position
and presence of features seems to take precedence.BillK

 

BillK, this might be interesting.  Do post me offline if you wish or here if
you don't worry about being stalked by that girl on the third row sixth
image (I hope not, I want her stalking me) then post them here.  The images
are compressed enough they come in well under the ExI-chat size limit.  

 

I am looking at a couple things.  I noticed there isn't much correlation I
can tell between my Google cousins, although I think the first row first
image is the same guy in the third row second image.  Can you tell?

 

I want to see if a woman gets mostly women Google cousins for instance.

 

Also, if I notice there is only one image that is pi()/4 profile, the woman
on the third row fourth image, and with my bad luck, she would be the
stalker, oy, eeesh.

 

I see only one guy who looks even a little like me, fourth row fourth image,
but oddly enough, that boy to his right looks a lot like I did when I was
about 8 yrs old.

 

spike

 

 



 

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131212/e73c35c6/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.jpg
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 50000 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131212/e73c35c6/attachment.obj>

From spike66 at att.net  Thu Dec 12 17:12:22 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 09:12:22 -0800
Subject: [ExI] google cousins. was: RE: online resources for identifying
	symbols
Message-ID: <007e01cef75d$52c7fb60$f857f220$@att.net>

 

 

From: spike [mailto:spike66 at att.net] 
.

 
 

>>>.Best guess for this image:
<https://encrypted.google.com/search?sa=G&q=drunk+cow&ei=cdWoUoWwFZWFoQS6kIH
YBA&ved=0CCYQvQ4oAA> drunk cow

 

>>.Here's a fun and shocking game:  take a selfie, paste the photo into
Google Images and search.

 

>>.Others here, do repeat my experiment please, let's see if we can learn
something.  Spike

.

 

>.I see only one guy who looks even a little like me, fourth row fourth
image, but oddly enough, that boy to his right looks a lot like I did when I
was about 8 yrs old.  Spike

 

 

OK so here's another Google images experiment.  

 

 



 

I google-imaged my picture (above), got 24 google cousins, chose the one
that looks the most like me (below) google imaged his picture.  I noticed
his 24 google cousins didn't include me, and had five women rather than my
two.  So I am more manly than he, haaaaa, take THAT cousin!  Granted his
five are more attractive than my two, although my black girl, third row
sixth, with the pearly teeth is A1 stalkable.  My google-cuz outdoes me:
four of his five girls are stalk-worthy.

 



 

 

 

I also noticed most of my G-cousins, all except the him, are wearing dark
clothes, and all 24 of his cousins are wearing white.

 

Hey I wonder what happens if you google-image yourself nude?  Hmmmm, never
mind, it is too likely to find some long-lost photo of me passed out with my
head in a waste basket on Drunken Cow.

 

Oh wait!  What if we Google-image the stunning Kary Byron nude?  Heeeeyyyyy,
an industry is born.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

.          

 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131212/fcbeea35/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image003.png
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 47073 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131212/fcbeea35/attachment.obj>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image005.jpg
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 4041 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131212/fcbeea35/attachment-0001.obj>

From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Dec 12 17:44:45 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 17:44:45 +0000
Subject: [ExI] google cousins. was: RE: online resources for identifying
	symbols
In-Reply-To: <005701cef75a$46c33a80$d449af80$@att.net>
References: <005701cef75a$46c33a80$d449af80$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgrOnt3Fh+kCZfqZxvoVBEOPyRsFKXjJoTU-kLshb45Yw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 4:50 PM, spike wrote:
> I am looking at a couple things.  I noticed there isn?t much correlation I can tell
> between my Google cousins, although I think the first row first image is the
> same guy in the third row second image.  Can you tell?
>

If you click on the link for the image, you may find both photos come
from the same web site. Or there may be attached info on the photos to
identify them.

>
> I want to see if a woman gets mostly women Google cousins for instance.
> Also, if I notice there is only one image that is pi()/4 profile, the woman on the
> third row fourth image, and with my bad luck, she would be the stalker, oy, eeesh.
>
> I see only one guy who looks even a little like me, fourth row fourth image, but
> oddly enough, that boy to his right looks a lot like I did when I was about 8 yrs old.
>
>

The way the Google image analyser identifies features, weighs them,
and selects photos is probably undergoing constant change. As you
note, a white suit image produces mostly white suited photos.
Similarly I would expect a female photo search to match mostly female
photos.

As a matter of interest, when I do a search with your image, I get a
different set of matches, mostly male but including one hot blonde
female face. Even on image search Google changes the search results
depending on who submits the query and what it knows about them.

I think that Google doesn't really know what it is matching, unless it
finds an exact match.

BillK



From painlord2k at libero.it  Thu Dec 12 19:07:55 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 20:07:55 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bitcoin experience
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFjJeT0xLSkusNBrurvEfwXTjOTTL_wZPpE49ggFG3igag@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFjJeT0xLSkusNBrurvEfwXTjOTTL_wZPpE49ggFG3igag@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52AA098B.7090507@libero.it>

Il 12/12/2013 07:53, Rafal Smigrodzki ha scritto:
> So, I finally went ahead and tried to buy a bitcoin (and to think that
> I first read about bitcoins when they were less than 10$ apiece, and
> the blogger was saying "It's either going to get big, or fail
> completely, so buy some and see what happens, at worst you lose a few
> bucks"). I set up an account at coinbase, bought one bitcoin and ...
> four days later received an email saying "We decided to cancel your
> transaction, since it appears to be high-risk. You may try again in a
> few weeks". I used Tor to connect to coinbase.org, but otherwise
> disclosed my regular email account, linked a US bank account, verified
> my identity - so what's wrong? Tor? Did anybody here have a similar
> experience?

I suggest to not use TOR in these cases.

Using TOR in this way is like using the tong armor of Red Sonja.
Useful to sell comics but not really useful in real life.


Coinbase link your bank account to your coinbase account.
So the same safeguard the bank use will be requested by Coinbase.
TOR is to preserve anonymity and bank hate anonymity as much as the
government controlling them.


Mirco


From spike66 at att.net  Thu Dec 12 19:08:55 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 11:08:55 -0800
Subject: [ExI] google cousins. was: RE: online resources for identifying
	symbols
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgrOnt3Fh+kCZfqZxvoVBEOPyRsFKXjJoTU-kLshb45Yw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <005701cef75a$46c33a80$d449af80$@att.net>
 <CAL_armgrOnt3Fh+kCZfqZxvoVBEOPyRsFKXjJoTU-kLshb45Yw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <014c01cef76d$9b4fb070$d1ef1150$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of BillK


>...As a matter of interest, when I do a search with your image, I get a
different set of matches, mostly male but including one hot blonde female
face... BillK

_______________________________________________

Wellllll OK BillK, you caught me.  That hot blonde female is me.  I got so
tired of being stalked by the lonely hearts club which was geekdom in the
90s, almost all men, I decided to cut my hair and dress like a man.  Only
then could I get decent conversation out of them without geeks always asking
me for a date.

Or not.  {8^D

I googled on my 23andMe images of actual genetic cousins and didn't find
myself among their Google cousins.  But that should come as no surprise: I
can google-image myself and none of my images on the web appear in my Google
cousins list.  it might be interesting for a celebrity type to do a selfie
and see if google-images can find matches, when there are millions of images
of that person already on the web.

This Google Image business is a fun game, but not yet particularly powerful.
I expect it will become more powerful over time, as the whole computer chess
thing did, and it won't take as long.

spike





From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Thu Dec 12 19:43:46 2013
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 13:43:46 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Bitcoin experience
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFjJeT0xLSkusNBrurvEfwXTjOTTL_wZPpE49ggFG3igag@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFjJeT0xLSkusNBrurvEfwXTjOTTL_wZPpE49ggFG3igag@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPddBH2UONR51CyQffF1uQREdx2HYw+cm-3Uxp-d1SCGvg@mail.gmail.com>

Not sure Tor was the problem. I heard many people complain about coinbase
(that I usually consider pretty good) to have considered high risk many
transactions that happened when bitcoin was been sold at the dive that
happened few days ago. Was the price of bitcoin very low when you tried to
buy it?
Giovanni


On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 12:53 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:

> So, I finally went ahead and tried to buy a bitcoin (and to think that
> I first read about bitcoins when they were less than 10$ apiece, and
> the blogger was saying "It's either going to get big, or fail
> completely, so buy some and see what happens, at worst you lose a few
> bucks"). I set up an account at coinbase, bought one bitcoin and ...
> four days later received an email saying "We decided to cancel your
> transaction, since it appears to be high-risk. You may try again in a
> few weeks". I used Tor to connect to coinbase.org, but otherwise
> disclosed my regular email account, linked a US bank account, verified
> my identity - so what's wrong? Tor? Did anybody here have a similar
> experience?
>
> Rafal
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131212/0c6cfc5d/attachment.html>

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Thu Dec 12 20:07:10 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 13:07:10 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Bitcoin experience
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFjJeT0xLSkusNBrurvEfwXTjOTTL_wZPpE49ggFG3igag@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFjJeT0xLSkusNBrurvEfwXTjOTTL_wZPpE49ggFG3igag@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8Rwat-PV0g3w_YaHLhJ9cJZ4OczNAT0Ee=4grP8PsVVLNzw@mail.gmail.com>

My recommendation is to use this site to find someone local who is selling.

https://localbitcoins.com

That's how I've bought most of what little I have.

-Kelly



On Wed, Dec 11, 2013 at 11:53 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:

> So, I finally went ahead and tried to buy a bitcoin (and to think that
> I first read about bitcoins when they were less than 10$ apiece, and
> the blogger was saying "It's either going to get big, or fail
> completely, so buy some and see what happens, at worst you lose a few
> bucks"). I set up an account at coinbase, bought one bitcoin and ...
> four days later received an email saying "We decided to cancel your
> transaction, since it appears to be high-risk. You may try again in a
> few weeks". I used Tor to connect to coinbase.org, but otherwise
> disclosed my regular email account, linked a US bank account, verified
> my identity - so what's wrong? Tor? Did anybody here have a similar
> experience?
>
> Rafal
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131212/d391ad8c/attachment.html>

From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Thu Dec 12 20:20:30 2013
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 14:20:30 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Bitcoin experience
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8Rwat-PV0g3w_YaHLhJ9cJZ4OczNAT0Ee=4grP8PsVVLNzw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFjJeT0xLSkusNBrurvEfwXTjOTTL_wZPpE49ggFG3igag@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8Rwat-PV0g3w_YaHLhJ9cJZ4OczNAT0Ee=4grP8PsVVLNzw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPff73LJybFfxcoq1DWJAj9+3BGfTp-4Su0bDZh0dfJC3g@mail.gmail.com>

Kelly,
The prices in localbitcoins are too high.
I'm actually thinking to create a bitcoin club associated with my
Scientitifc Transhumanism FB page
https://www.facebook.com/groups/scientific.transhumanism/.
I want to buy bitcoins for people because I think everybody should own a
piece (you don't have to buy a whole one, you can buy a tiny fraction).
I think I will charge a small percentage for the transaction with a part of
it donated to SENS.
Charges will be proportional to how much bitcoin one buys (smaller for
large orders).
Let me know if anybody is interested.
Giovanni




On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 2:07 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>wrote:

> My recommendation is to use this site to find someone local who is selling.
>
> https://localbitcoins.com
>
> That's how I've bought most of what little I have.
>
> -Kelly
>
>
>
> On Wed, Dec 11, 2013 at 11:53 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
> rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> So, I finally went ahead and tried to buy a bitcoin (and to think that
>> I first read about bitcoins when they were less than 10$ apiece, and
>> the blogger was saying "It's either going to get big, or fail
>> completely, so buy some and see what happens, at worst you lose a few
>> bucks"). I set up an account at coinbase, bought one bitcoin and ...
>> four days later received an email saying "We decided to cancel your
>> transaction, since it appears to be high-risk. You may try again in a
>> few weeks". I used Tor to connect to coinbase.org, but otherwise
>> disclosed my regular email account, linked a US bank account, verified
>> my identity - so what's wrong? Tor? Did anybody here have a similar
>> experience?
>>
>> Rafal
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131212/c40581ba/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Thu Dec 12 23:30:41 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 23:30:41 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Fwd: [tt] The Habitable Epoch of the Early Universe
In-Reply-To: <20131212144722.GJ10793@leitl.org>
References: <20131210164653.GY10793@leitl.org>
 <CAAc1gFhLKOrbtnck0tGEDXZ6dKrdJev69mH1peMYi6Pz7UboXw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52A9B0AA.8000303@aleph.se> <20131212132249.GI10793@leitl.org>
 <52A9C490.9030506@aleph.se> <20131212144722.GJ10793@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <52AA4721.7060701@aleph.se>

On 12/12/2013 14:47, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 02:13:36PM +0000, Anders Sandberg wrote:
>
>> Exactly. And now the diadem needs to think about what probability it
>> should assign to the existence of other diadems.
>
> If the diadem is honest, it cannot assign any probabilities.

That is actually not an answer. Read Jaynes, chapter 1 and 2.


>> SIA-believer diadem should favour theories where there are loads of
>> observers (but not necessarily diadems). However, the unique diadem
>
> The SIA diadem has no basis for that assumption either.

Yes, the SIA.

Now how you come to accept axioms of anthropic reasoning or not is a 
separate and tricky issue. Much of the research in the field is about 
this, or whether they can be derived from Bayesian probability or 
decision theory. (see the videos of the Oxford conference we had about 
it a few weeks back when they arrive online)

>> observer is also an "anomalous observer" - most observers are by
>> definition common, and they would get things more right when
>
> This is circular logic. You have no idea how common your class is,
> until you have an unbiased sample.

Yes, but I was not talking about your judgement of your situation in 
that sentence. Merely about the fact that in the generic case (it is 
always possible to construct contrived counterexamples) anomalous 
observers are going to be the minority compared to non-anomalous observers.

(This is incidentally why Boltzman brains are regarded as a headache in 
the philosophy of science: if they exist, then they do swamp "real" 
observers with anomalous ones)


-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University


From anders at aleph.se  Thu Dec 12 23:18:46 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 23:18:46 +0000
Subject: [ExI] google cousins. was: RE: online resources for identifying
 symbols
In-Reply-To: <014c01cef76d$9b4fb070$d1ef1150$@att.net>
References: <005701cef75a$46c33a80$d449af80$@att.net>
 <CAL_armgrOnt3Fh+kCZfqZxvoVBEOPyRsFKXjJoTU-kLshb45Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <014c01cef76d$9b4fb070$d1ef1150$@att.net>
Message-ID: <52AA4456.20705@aleph.se>

An old but still fascinating project is 80 million tiny images: 
http://groups.csail.mit.edu/vision/TinyImages/
This is a demonstration of how much power you can get out of k-nearest 
neighbour search based on pixelwise distance, amplified by the concept 
structure of Wordnet. By now it is even fairly obsolete. They have added 
crowdsourced learning on top of it, which might move it to the next level.


-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University


From spike66 at att.net  Fri Dec 13 00:40:35 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 16:40:35 -0800
Subject: [ExI] google cousins. was: RE: online resources for identifying
	symbols
In-Reply-To: <52AA4456.20705@aleph.se>
References: <005701cef75a$46c33a80$d449af80$@att.net>
 <CAL_armgrOnt3Fh+kCZfqZxvoVBEOPyRsFKXjJoTU-kLshb45Yw@mail.gmail.com>
 <014c01cef76d$9b4fb070$d1ef1150$@att.net> <52AA4456.20705@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <008901cef79b$f03e0130$d0ba0390$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg

>...Subject: Re: [ExI] google cousins. was: RE: online resources for
identifying symbols

>...An old but still fascinating project is 80 million tiny images:
http://groups.csail.mit.edu/vision/TinyImages/
--
>...Anders Sandberg


Idea: if anyone here has a photo of any celebrity that is not on the
internet currently, we can do an experiment.  What we need is a picture you
took with your own camera any movie or TV personality (because they would
likely have a lot of images on the internet) an elected politician, anyone
involved in a big news story such that their photo from a lot of different
angles would be in the public domain.  Post your own picture which you know
is not on the internet, see if Google can find who it is.  

Google couldn't find one of my approximately dozens of images on the
internet: mine were primarily from gatherings of motorcycle people, who took
pictures and posted them to their Facebook pages and such.  But a typical TV
person could have thousands of images out there.

spike










From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Dec 13 01:26:41 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 18:26:41 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The Government Does it Again
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwaGzDCb4S+oMRqEQ2uiWxrBfJN7fTQQXWdN8HsySOK=JQ@mail.gmail.com>

So I'm pretty bummed today because once again the government has ruined all
our fun. I joined a Maker Space here a few months back. I set up my wood
shop there, and have been happily building things. Earlier this week, the
city folk came by and said, "you can't do that! That's manufacturing, and
you're a warehouse."

It is maddening. Every time I get excited and up for something, the
government comes and shuts it down. I feel like I just can't win.

Time to build something based on Bitcoin I guess. Let them TRY and stop me
this time! Wahahahaha!

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131212/8e5d3de5/attachment.html>

From tara at taramayastales.com  Fri Dec 13 01:53:31 2013
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 17:53:31 -0800
Subject: [ExI] The Government Does it Again
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwaGzDCb4S+oMRqEQ2uiWxrBfJN7fTQQXWdN8HsySOK=JQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwaGzDCb4S+oMRqEQ2uiWxrBfJN7fTQQXWdN8HsySOK=JQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <2653D344-1422-4DDE-8F2E-0EEFF500CCD1@taramayastales.com>

Wow, that is depressing. If only it were an isolated incident.

Tara Maya

On Dec 12, 2013, at 5:26 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:

> So I'm pretty bummed today because once again the government has ruined all our fun. I joined a Maker Space here a few months back. I set up my wood shop there, and have been happily building things. Earlier this week, the city folk came by and said, "you can't do that! That's manufacturing, and you're a warehouse."
> 
> It is maddening. Every time I get excited and up for something, the government comes and shuts it down. I feel like I just can't win.
> 
> Time to build something based on Bitcoin I guess. Let them TRY and stop me this time! Wahahahaha!
> 
> -Kelly 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat




From mbb386 at main.nc.us  Fri Dec 13 02:51:17 2013
From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB)
Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013 21:51:17 -0500
Subject: [ExI] The Government Does it Again
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwaGzDCb4S+oMRqEQ2uiWxrBfJN7fTQQXWdN8HsySOK=JQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwaGzDCb4S+oMRqEQ2uiWxrBfJN7fTQQXWdN8HsySOK=JQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <6fda0e1dce6bba2a4e655538a7d3e9d9.squirrel@www.main.nc.us>

Wow, did they shut down the whole MakerSpace or just you?

That is pretty disgusting, no matter.

They want "their  share" of what you make, bloomin'
thieves is what they are. :(

Regards,
MB

> So I'm pretty bummed today because once again the
> government has ruined all
> our fun. I joined a Maker Space here a few months back. I
> set up my wood
> shop there, and have been happily building things. Earlier
> this week, the
> city folk came by and said, "you can't do that! That's
> manufacturing, and
> you're a warehouse."
>
> It is maddening. Every time I get excited and up for
> something, the
> government comes and shuts it down. I feel like I just
> can't win.
>
> Time to build something based on Bitcoin I guess. Let them
> TRY and stop me
> this time! Wahahahaha!
>
> -Kelly


From painlord2k at libero.it  Fri Dec 13 16:00:52 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Fri, 13 Dec 2013 17:00:52 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The Government Does it Again
In-Reply-To: <6fda0e1dce6bba2a4e655538a7d3e9d9.squirrel@www.main.nc.us>
References: <CAPy8RwaGzDCb4S+oMRqEQ2uiWxrBfJN7fTQQXWdN8HsySOK=JQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <6fda0e1dce6bba2a4e655538a7d3e9d9.squirrel@www.main.nc.us>
Message-ID: <52AB2F34.8050207@libero.it>

Il 13/12/2013 03:51, MB ha scritto:
> Wow, did they shut down the whole MakerSpace or just you?
> 
> That is pretty disgusting, no matter.
> 
> They want "their  share" of what you make, bloomin'
> thieves is what they are. :(

Where I live there are two entities wanting "their" shares of your work
and wealth: the government and the organized crime.
Often I'm unable to tell one from the other.
When I'm, the Organized crime is more reasonable and agreeable with then
the government.

Mirco



From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Dec 13 20:07:48 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 13 Dec 2013 20:07:48 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Collapse of the universe is closer than ever before
Message-ID: <CAL_armh5PYe4vKHftdTzpYFM8s3MG=XiubTH4hbmUZa+yAMGwQ@mail.gmail.com>

Maybe it happens tomorrow. Maybe in a billion years. Physicists have
long predicted that the universe may one day collapse, and that
everything in it will be compressed to a small hard ball. New
calculations from physicists at the University of Southern Denmark now
confirm this prediction ? and they also conclude that the risk of a
collapse is even greater than previously thought.

<http://sdu.dk/en/Om_SDU/Fakulteterne/Naturvidenskab/Nyheder/2013_12_12_collapsing_universe>

Sooner or later a radical shift in the forces of the universe will
cause every little particle in it to become extremely heavy.
Everything - every grain of sand on Earth, every planet in the solar
system and every galaxy ? will become millions of billions times
heavier than it is now, and this will have disastrous consequences:
The new weight will squeeze all material into a small, super hot and
super heavy ball, and the universe as we know it will cease to exist.

This violent process is called a phase transition and is very similar
to what happens when, for example water turns to steam or a magnet
heats up and loses its magnetization. The phase transition in the
universe will happen if a bubble is created where the Higgs-field
associated with the Higgs-particle reaches a different value than the
rest of the universe. If this new value results in lower energy and if
the bubble is large enough, the bubble will expand at the speed of
light in all directions. All elementary particles inside the bubble
will reach a mass, that is much heavier than if they were outside the
bubble, and thus they will be pulled together and form supermassive
centers.

----------------------------


Then they spoil it by saying that it might not happen after all.

So maybe Anders doesn't need to add it to his list of possible disasters.   ;)


BillK



From anders at aleph.se  Fri Dec 13 22:52:35 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 13 Dec 2013 22:52:35 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Collapse of the universe is closer than ever before
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armh5PYe4vKHftdTzpYFM8s3MG=XiubTH4hbmUZa+yAMGwQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armh5PYe4vKHftdTzpYFM8s3MG=XiubTH4hbmUZa+yAMGwQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52AB8FB3.10007@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-13 20:07, BillK wrote:
> So maybe Anders doesn't need to add it to his list of possible disasters.   ;)
Already dealt with :-) :
http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2013/12/dont_fear_the_vacuum_reaper.html

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Dec 14 11:48:44 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 14 Dec 2013 11:48:44 +0000
Subject: [ExI] DNA - It's complicated!
Message-ID: <CAL_armjNR0FBfB3bR6wr8qnVcju93jd7RYaBgYj9d9bEafsqjQ@mail.gmail.com>

Scientists discover double meaning in genetic code
December 12, 2013    UW Health Sciences and UW Medicine

<http://www.washington.edu/news/2013/12/12/scientists-discover-double-meaning-in-genetic-code/>

Quote:
Scientists have discovered a second code hiding within DNA. This
second code contains information that changes how scientists read the
instructions contained in DNA and interpret mutations to make sense of
health and disease.

?For over 40 years we have assumed that DNA changes affecting the
genetic code solely impact how proteins are made,? said
Stamatoyannopoulos. ?Now we know that this basic assumption about
reading the human genome missed half of the picture. These new
findings highlight that DNA is an incredibly powerful information
storage device, which nature has fully exploited in unexpected ways.?
?The fact that the genetic code can simultaneously write two kinds of
information means that many DNA changes that appear to alter protein
sequences may actually cause disease by disrupting gene control
programs or even both mechanisms simultaneously,? said
Stamatoyannopoulos.
-------------


Forbes has a good overview of the new research.

<http://www.forbes.com/sites/anthonykosner/2013/12/13/seven-ways-to-look-at-the-double-meaning-of-dna-code/>

Quote:

Human DNA Is Not A Document, It's An App
For so long we have considered the genetic code to be something like a
book to be read, a recipe for making proteins. This new discovery
makes me think that DNA is actually less like a document and more like
an app. These transcription factors bind to to specific sequences of
DNA right next to the genes that they regulate. So we can think of
these TFs as kinds of functions that employ certain logic to turn the
transcription of genetic material on and off and to regulate its
speed. This reminds me of the reactive data bindings in the JavaScript
app framework called Meteor. In effect, the TF binds to all areas
producing a certain type of protein in a certain cell line (the scope
of the function) and keeps them all coordinated in real time.

DNA As Playing Battleship
The dual-functioning nature of some DNA code puts us in a curious
position when trying to determine, for instance, genetic factors of
disease (think of the troubles of 23andMe.) In the present scenario,
it is as if we have been playing a game of Battleship looking at the
known position of our pieces (the genes), but not of the positions of
the duons that contain the code of the TFs. And it turns out that the
correlation between genes associated with a given disease and
co-located TFs will be likely spots for aiming the big guns at.

--------------


I think that they are saying that 23andMe's view that certain genes
are risk factors for disease is too simplistic.


BillK



From anders at aleph.se  Sat Dec 14 12:17:14 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 14 Dec 2013 12:17:14 +0000
Subject: [ExI] DNA - It's complicated!
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjNR0FBfB3bR6wr8qnVcju93jd7RYaBgYj9d9bEafsqjQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjNR0FBfB3bR6wr8qnVcju93jd7RYaBgYj9d9bEafsqjQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52AC4C4A.40000@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-14 11:48, BillK wrote:
> I think that they are saying that 23andMe's view that certain genes
> are risk factors for disease is too simplistic.

No, that is not what they are saying.

Note that checking statistical associations between SNPs and disease 
states will not tell you whether the link happens because of mutations 
in genes, changes in gene expression or some stuff with transcription 
factors. It just tells you that if there is variation X at site Y the 
odds change by Z.

Rather hypish articles, but at least Forbes linked to
http://www.forbes.com/sites/emilywillingham/2013/12/13/dont-be-duped-by-duon-dna-hype/

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From painlord2k at libero.it  Sat Dec 14 12:38:44 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Sat, 14 Dec 2013 13:38:44 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Bitcoin experience
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFjJeT0xLSkusNBrurvEfwXTjOTTL_wZPpE49ggFG3igag@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFjJeT0xLSkusNBrurvEfwXTjOTTL_wZPpE49ggFG3igag@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52AC5154.7070407@libero.it>

Apparently, things start to become interesting.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1st1rr/bittorrent_client_devs_work_on_bitcoin_integration/

Mirco


From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Dec 14 12:58:24 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 14 Dec 2013 12:58:24 +0000
Subject: [ExI] DNA - It's complicated!
In-Reply-To: <52AC4C4A.40000@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armjNR0FBfB3bR6wr8qnVcju93jd7RYaBgYj9d9bEafsqjQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AC4C4A.40000@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armh8SLJhVHESdZwZcQfMqz_TQs1umihGaeNmF_4e1bZ=Xw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Dec 14, 2013 at 12:17 PM, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
> Note that checking statistical associations between SNPs and disease states
> will not tell you whether the link happens because of mutations in genes,
> changes in gene expression or some stuff with transcription factors. It just
> tells you that if there is variation X at site Y the odds change by Z.
>
> Rather hypish articles, but at least Forbes linked to
> http://www.forbes.com/sites/emilywillingham/2013/12/13/dont-be-duped-by-duon-dna-hype/
>
>

After more searching it does appear that the PR department has hyped
up the research. (In today's world everybody wants publicity to get
fame and more funding!).

But I think they still have a significant new discovery.
Even a rant against the PR still gives them some credit:
<http://www.bacteriatobonobos.com/1/post/2013/12/go-home-pr-team-youre-drunk.html>

Quote:
The main conclusions of this new study by Dr. John Stamatoyannopoulos
and his colleagues is that these regions are more pervasively
contained within coding-sequences than previously believed ? 87% of
genes (from the 81 cell types investigated) contained them.
Moreover, they found that these regulatory sequences determine the
structure of proteins themselves by preferentially choosing some amino
acids (the building blocks of proteins) over others. Consequently, if
a mutation resulted in the selection of different protein structures,
they have the potential to catalyze evolutionary change. Finally, with
a large proportion of disease-associated DNA sequences being found
within these duons, this study reveals a myriad of insights into the
overlooked process of gene regulation within exons.
----------------

So, what was previously thought to be a rare complexity, is now known
to be a common complexity throughout DNA.
Multi-use means genetic modification is not a simple 'change one input
and get one output change'. You are likely to get multiple output
changes. And these multiple changes may not be noticed if you are only
looking for your one intended change.


BillK



From spike66 at att.net  Sat Dec 14 15:36:21 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 14 Dec 2013 07:36:21 -0800
Subject: [ExI] DNA - It's complicated!
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjNR0FBfB3bR6wr8qnVcju93jd7RYaBgYj9d9bEafsqjQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjNR0FBfB3bR6wr8qnVcju93jd7RYaBgYj9d9bEafsqjQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <000601cef8e2$3e1b0aa0$ba511fe0$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
>...
-------------


Forbes has a good overview of the new research.

<http://www.forbes.com/sites/anthonykosner/2013/12/13/seven-ways-to-look-at-
the-double-meaning-of-dna-code/>

--------------


I think that they are saying that 23andMe's view that certain genes are risk
factors for disease is too simplistic.

BillK

_______________________________________________

Ja.  Had our current president thought of that defense, he wouldn't have had
to offer his half-hearted apology.  Instead of vaguely hinted that he was
lying, he could have said, "When I said 'If you like you current healthcare
plan you can keep your current healthcare plan, period end of story,' my
view of certain risk factors was too simplistic."

This new DNA finding is really cool.  Every time we think we are getting to
the center of this onion we find new layers of subtlety.

If you look at what 23andMe actually provides, they only tell you the risk
multiplication over the population without those genes.  It looks to me like
this is a perfectly legitimate and helpful service.  It also opens the
possibility to enable truly useful crowd-sourced science.  We could create
Reddit groups for volunteers for instance, where people with elevated risk
of yakkity yak or bla bla could anonymously share related risk factors and
study it, using data that is available in no other way.  

I am so frustrated we have in our hands a database of 400k proles with a
potential wealth of info, yet we still aren't effectively using it.  The one
group that seems to have taken off is the one for 2-sigma and above
Neanderthal genes.  Sheesh, that doesn't help us.  Not much.  Or maybe it
will, but there is so much more we can do.  For instance, we should have a
Reddit group for those with both markers 23andMe identifies as increasing
risk of developing type 1 diabetes.  Oy, my evolution, this is a chance to
do some excellent and useful science, and DAMMIT I don't how to get such a
thing organized, I don't even know how to set up a Reddit group.  Have we
any Reddit hipsters eager to serve humanity?

Idea, we have the high school science fair, but it is discouraging how so
many students go over and over and over the same damn ground, producing copy
after copy of projects that have won in the past, but nothing useful is
discovered.  We should try to start a fad where science fair students think
of a theory on correlation of a pair of genes and a condition, then they
collect data from 23andMe, and calculate the coefficients.  Then all the
participants who do that particular type of project get a special ribbon or
a some kind of bangle for their resumes, for if they do it right, they have
learned a useful skill.

Before long, some of the young code hipsters will figure out a way to do
this in software.

There is science here struggling to emerge from the shadows.  23andMe is
practically giving away the info, now our job is to give back by
interpreting it.

Help me Obi BillK-nobi.
  
spike 



From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Dec 14 16:07:42 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 14 Dec 2013 16:07:42 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Collapse of the universe is closer than ever before
In-Reply-To: <52AB8FB3.10007@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armh5PYe4vKHftdTzpYFM8s3MG=XiubTH4hbmUZa+yAMGwQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AB8FB3.10007@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjD_i+RRbGDHm03KyUhiR+Rp+i7AWDiO-QHAuZJVJAy-w@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Dec 13, 2013 at 10:52 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> On 2013-12-13 20:07, BillK wrote:
>>
>> So maybe Anders doesn't need to add it to his list of possible disasters.
>> ;)
>
> Already dealt with :-) :
> http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2013/12/dont_fear_the_vacuum_reaper.html
>
> --
> Dr Anders Sandberg
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Oxford University
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Dec 14 16:36:47 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 14 Dec 2013 16:36:47 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Collapse of the universe is closer than ever before
In-Reply-To: <52AB8FB3.10007@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armh5PYe4vKHftdTzpYFM8s3MG=XiubTH4hbmUZa+yAMGwQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AB8FB3.10007@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhsE0=3pmYaAGExN8bHS=HLGe5vA7kYX82GEsUQp5GZaA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Dec 13, 2013 at 10:52 PM, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
> Already dealt with :-) :
> http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2013/12/dont_fear_the_vacuum_reaper.html
>
>

I have a couple of queries re the two papers you reference on your web
site, generated from the comments in the Nature article.
<http://www.nature.com/news/life-possible-in-the-early-universe-1.14341>

First query is that the time scales on the two papers don't seem to match up.

'Planets in the early universe' is talking about the period over 400
million years after the Big Bang, when the first stars started up.
See: <http://www.solstation.com/x-objects/timelin2.jpg>

'Life possible in the early universe' is talking about the period
around 15 million years after the Big Bang when the afterglow of the
Big Bang had cooled down to around 300 Kelvin. The writer is
speculating that even this early in creation there appeared pockets of
dense matter sufficient to form very early stars and rocky planets.
This sounds like a big stretch to me and involves some rewriting of
the current view of the early universe.

>From the comments:
I do wonder what the 'rocky planets' would have come from and been
made of given that the content of the Universe at a few million years
old was basically hydrogen, helium, deuterium plus vanishingly small
tiny amounts of slightly heavier elements. Complex chemistry requires
chemical elements, which only exist because generations of stars have
undergone catastrophic fusion and explosion as supernovae to spread
their heavy elements out into space where they can slowly re-form into
planets. Loeb needs some special pleading to argue that enough stars
could even have formed and gone supernova that early...
--------------

My second query, also from the comments, is that the temperature was
only suitable for a brief 2 to 3 million years. This short a time
scale is not enough to create 'life'. Before the first supernovae, you
wouldn't even get precursor chemicals.


BillK


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sat Dec 14 17:50:58 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sat, 14 Dec 2013 12:50:58 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Collapse of the universe is closer than ever before
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armh5PYe4vKHftdTzpYFM8s3MG=XiubTH4hbmUZa+yAMGwQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armh5PYe4vKHftdTzpYFM8s3MG=XiubTH4hbmUZa+yAMGwQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0Ob9aXVO49vJ9u1gye5NVmHYzCnMKhs40JPmCvsYwE=A@mail.gmail.com>

Yes, if the collapse of the universe happens within a finite amount of time
then it is closer than ever before; it's also true that things are more
like they are now than they have ever been.

  John K Clark
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131214/56cd6dae/attachment.html>

From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Dec 15 17:32:57 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 15 Dec 2013 12:32:57 -0500
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
References: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>

Storms get their energy from the warm water on the ocean's surface, so if
you could cool that surface layer you could reduce the power of a
hurricane, one interesting idea for doing this is called a "Salter Sink".
You make a circle of cheap used tires about 100 meters in diameter, that
structure supports a tube made of thin plastic sheets 200 meters long that
goes down into the ocean's depths. Waves splash over the tires so the warm
water level inside the circle of lashed together tires is about 8 inches
higher inside the circle than outside, so the weight of the water column
forces the warm water down the tube to the cold depths 200 meters below.
Salter says just one such sink could transfer 150 cubic meters of warm
surface seawater every second and rob 9.5 gigawatts of power from a
hurricane; Salter says because these things are so cheap to build and use
no fuel to operate you could make hundreds or even thousands of them.

  John K Clark
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131215/185d8c8a/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Sun Dec 15 21:56:35 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 15 Dec 2013 22:56:35 +0100
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
 <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52AE2593.3050804@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-15 18:32, John Clark wrote:
> Storms get their energy from the warm water on the ocean's surface, so 
> if you could cool that surface layer you could reduce the power of a 
> hurricane, one interesting idea for doing this is called a "Salter Sink".

It is a very neat idea, and I liked the rough analysis by Intellectual 
Ventures.

My big concern is that it is based on the idea that a slight decrease in 
surface water temperature is enough. Now received wisdom is that 
hurricanes cannot form below a critical temperature of 28 degrees, which 
seems to suggest that a slight tweak might reduce their incidence a fair 
bit. But first, when I read up on hurricane thermodynamics I found that 
Kerry A. Emanuel (the doyen of the field) rather clearly states that 
this is not a strict limit: this just represents a level where 
hurricanes usually don't get squashed by the trade winds. More 
seriously, once a hurricane has formed, it gains energy from heat 
released by evaporated or aerosolized water. At this point small 
temperature differences do not matter much, since a one degree 
difference is still just ~1/300 of the total heat. So it might be that 
the sinks do not have much of an effect.

In the end the only thing that can settle it is to run a proper 
hurricane model over a Salter sea, which requires either some good 
simulations or experimental outdoors work.


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From spike66 at att.net  Sun Dec 15 23:03:18 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 15 Dec 2013 15:03:18 -0800
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <52AE2593.3050804@aleph.se>
References: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
 <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AE2593.3050804@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>



On 2013-12-15 18:32, John Clark wrote:
> Storms get their energy from the warm water on the ocean's surface, so 
> if you could cool that surface layer you could reduce the power of a 
> hurricane, one interesting idea for doing this is called a "Salter Sink".


Cool idea!  It has my wheels spinning, mostly on variations on a theme.  I
am thinking about a tube of some sort, which floats vertically with the top
end about a meter above the surface, diameter about 2 meters, length of
about 20 meters, set up in such a way that it bobs in the water.  At the top
end periphery, you create hinged doors which allows water to pour in when
submerged but prevents it from flowing back out.  

Each wave that hits the tube circulates cooler water down only 20 meters
below, which is about 5 to 10 C cooler.  You make jillions of these things
that can be deployed rapidly: you stack them on the deck of a repurposed
aircraft carrier (or any other retired warship for that matter, we don't
need them anymore), then roll them off the deck into the water in the
predicted path of a hurricane.  The outside would be just a straight 20
meter long tube made of anything, polystyrene for instance, something that
can flex a little.  Floatation devices inside the tube on one end, ballast
if necessary at the other.  With the dimensions given, they could come in at
4 tons each, so a carrier could easily haul a few thousand of them.

John this idea is worth doing some single-digit numbers.  Well done, me lad!

spike





From msd001 at gmail.com  Sun Dec 15 23:35:04 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Sun, 15 Dec 2013 18:35:04 -0500
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
References: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
 <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AE2593.3050804@aleph.se>
 <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbLR3RWn1cCg67dGxFaZ9B4ga0-W3NXkKEzzyhQ9WJFcqA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Dec 15, 2013 at 6:03 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Each wave that hits the tube circulates cooler water down only 20 meters
> below, which is about 5 to 10 C cooler.  You make jillions of these things
> that can be deployed rapidly: you stack them on the deck of a repurposed
> aircraft carrier (or any other retired warship for that matter, we don't
> need them anymore), then roll them off the deck into the water in the
> predicted path of a hurricane.  The outside would be just a straight 20
> meter long tube made of anything, polystyrene for instance, something that
> can flex a little.  Floatation devices inside the tube on one end, ballast
> if necessary at the other.  With the dimensions given, they could come in
> at
> 4 tons each, so a carrier could easily haul a few thousand of them.
>

That will be a nice recycling of your old warships.  I had a much more
aggressive recycling project in mind though:  use the various so-called
"garbage islands" as feedstock for a floating fabber to make these
devices.  Perhaps that won't populate the ocean with jillions quite as
quickly... but it puts the existing junk to better use than throwing more
plastic [and polystyrene(?!)] into the ocean.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131215/b72bf937/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Sun Dec 15 23:51:29 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 15 Dec 2013 15:51:29 -0800
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbLR3RWn1cCg67dGxFaZ9B4ga0-W3NXkKEzzyhQ9WJFcqA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
 <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AE2593.3050804@aleph.se> <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbLR3RWn1cCg67dGxFaZ9B4ga0-W3NXkKEzzyhQ9WJFcqA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <005401cef9f0$93ebe260$bbc3a720$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty
Subject: Re: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes

 

On Sun, Dec 15, 2013 at 6:03 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

 

 

>>.the dimensions given, they could come in at
4 tons each, so a carrier could easily haul a few thousand of them.

 

>.That will be a nice recycling of your old warships.  I had a much more
aggressive recycling project in mind though:  use the various so-called
"garbage islands" as feedstock for a floating fabber to make these devices.
Perhaps that won't populate the ocean with jillions quite as quickly... but
it puts the existing junk to better use than throwing more plastic [and
polystyrene(?!)] into the ocean.

 

Excellent, that's thinking.

 

Regarding that garbage island, I had some ideas on how to deal with that,
but I am having my doubts now.  Is it possible the whole thing is an urban
legend?  Why can't I find it on Google Earth?  If it really is 90 ft thick
in places, why wouldn't that be worth it to go out there with a dredge and
haul it on board and recycle or incinerate the stuff?  And why is it that we
hear so much about all that debris ending up on Yankee beaches from that big
tsunami in Japan, but not the debris which was supposedly already out there?
And why is it I never see pictures of it taken from airliners, and never
hear of guys seeing it from aircraft over the Pacific?  I sometimes get a
vague feeling that whole trash island notion is exaggerated.

 

spike

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131215/89cc2d5b/attachment.html>

From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Dec 16 00:15:56 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2013 00:15:56 +0000
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <005401cef9f0$93ebe260$bbc3a720$@att.net>
References: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
 <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AE2593.3050804@aleph.se>
 <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbLR3RWn1cCg67dGxFaZ9B4ga0-W3NXkKEzzyhQ9WJFcqA@mail.gmail.com>
 <005401cef9f0$93ebe260$bbc3a720$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgRPsKeZShTQfXmQDojdWVdFb+EPKmSfMmay6+GBBQk=g@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Dec 15, 2013 at 11:51 PM, spike wrote:
> Regarding that garbage island, I had some ideas on how to deal with that,
> but I am having my doubts now.  Is it possible the whole thing is an urban
> legend?  Why can?t I find it on Google Earth?  If it really is 90 ft thick
> in places, why wouldn?t that be worth it to go out there with a dredge and
> haul it on board and recycle or incinerate the stuff?  And why is it that we
> hear so much about all that debris ending up on Yankee beaches from that big
> tsunami in Japan, but not the debris which was supposedly already out there?
> And why is it I never see pictures of it taken from airliners, and never
> hear of guys seeing it from aircraft over the Pacific?  I sometimes get a
> vague feeling that whole trash island notion is exaggerated.
>


Wikipedia -
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Pacific_Garbage_Patch>

Guess what - you can't actually see the pollution.
Quote:
The patch is characterized by exceptionally high concentrations of
pelagic plastics, chemical sludge and other debris that have been
trapped by the currents of the North Pacific Gyre.[2] Despite its size
and density, the patch is not visible from satellite photography,
since it consists primarily of suspended particulates in the upper
water column. Since plastics break down to even smaller polymers,
concentrations of submerged particles are not visible from space, nor
do they appear as a continuous debris field. Instead, the patch is
defined as an area in which the mass of plastic debris in the upper
water column is significantly higher than average.
-------------

The wall of rubbish from Japan is very visible, though.

BillK



From msd001 at gmail.com  Mon Dec 16 00:20:54 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Sun, 15 Dec 2013 19:20:54 -0500
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <005401cef9f0$93ebe260$bbc3a720$@att.net>
References: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
 <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AE2593.3050804@aleph.se>
 <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbLR3RWn1cCg67dGxFaZ9B4ga0-W3NXkKEzzyhQ9WJFcqA@mail.gmail.com>
 <005401cef9f0$93ebe260$bbc3a720$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbLAVG5USutxdpnd4sRTx8BiUJbVr8qD4t2i9dGLFr8DHg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Dec 15, 2013 at 6:51 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Regarding that garbage island, I had some ideas on how to deal with that,
> but I am having my doubts now.  Is it possible the whole thing is an urban
> legend?  Why can?t I find it on Google Earth?  If it really is 90 ft thick
> in places, why wouldn?t that be worth it to go out there with a dredge and
> haul it on board and recycle or incinerate the stuff?  And why is it that
> we hear so much about all that debris ending up on Yankee beaches from that
> big tsunami in Japan, but not the debris which was supposedly already out
> there?  And why is it I never see pictures of it taken from airliners, and
> never hear of guys seeing it from aircraft over the Pacific?  I sometimes
> get a vague feeling that whole trash island notion is exaggerated.
>
>
>
I've never seen a baby pigeon either but I suspect they do exist.  :p

Surely not ALL those google images for "garbage gyre" are fake.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131215/3081df68/attachment.html>

From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Dec 16 00:44:32 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2013 00:44:32 +0000
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbLAVG5USutxdpnd4sRTx8BiUJbVr8qD4t2i9dGLFr8DHg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
 <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AE2593.3050804@aleph.se>
 <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbLR3RWn1cCg67dGxFaZ9B4ga0-W3NXkKEzzyhQ9WJFcqA@mail.gmail.com>
 <005401cef9f0$93ebe260$bbc3a720$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbLAVG5USutxdpnd4sRTx8BiUJbVr8qD4t2i9dGLFr8DHg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armij8QNi_KXuyDzEPZ06KUy7xb7wxYDboKmkGc-8Hw--ug@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Dec 16, 2013 at 12:20 AM, Mike Dougherty wrote:
> > I've never seen a baby pigeon either but I suspect they do exist.  :p
>
> Surely not ALL those google images for "garbage gyre" are fake.
>

Yup, they're fake.  Or rather, there are floating landfill sites,
which get photographed, but they are near islands or cities that have
run out of landfill space. They are not the Great Pacific Garbage
Patch.

See:
<http://io9.com/5911969/lies-youve-been-told-about-the-pacific-garbage-patch>
The photo here is in Manila harbour.
(Think about it - You don't get canoeists in the middle of the
Pacific, do you?). :)

I am not saying that the Ocean plastic soup is not a serious problem
(and getting worse), but the Pacific plastic has mostly broken down
into very small pieces.

BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Mon Dec 16 00:49:44 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 15 Dec 2013 16:49:44 -0800
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbLAVG5USutxdpnd4sRTx8BiUJbVr8qD4t2i9dGLFr8DHg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
 <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AE2593.3050804@aleph.se> <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbLR3RWn1cCg67dGxFaZ9B4ga0-W3NXkKEzzyhQ9WJFcqA@mail.gmail.com>
 <005401cef9f0$93ebe260$bbc3a720$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdbLAVG5USutxdpnd4sRTx8BiUJbVr8qD4t2i9dGLFr8DHg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <009e01cef9f8$b6ceb9d0$246c2d70$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty
Subject: Re: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes

 

On Sun, Dec 15, 2013 at 6:51 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>>.Regarding that garbage island, I had some ideas on how to deal with that,
but I am having my doubts now.I sometimes get a vague feeling that whole
trash island notion is exaggerated.

>.I've never seen a baby pigeon either but I suspect they do exist.  :p

Me lad, you should experience the subtle pleasures of bird watching.  It
isn't fun like racing motorcycles, but it has its rewards for those who have
patience and inner serenity.

>.Surely not ALL those google images for "garbage gyre" are fake.

 

Agreed.  The pictures I see are when garbage piles up on the beach.  I saw a
comment on the web about this floating garbage patch that is in places 90 ft
thick.  OK then, if it is that thick, it also has to be wide, and if so, we
should be able to see it from 10km, the altitude of a cruising 747.  I can
see features as small as a sailboat from that high, so if this garbage patch
is 90 ft thick, I would think it would need to be at least a km diameter,
ja?  So where is a picture of it from 10km?  Or is it a bunch of smaller
patches?  The answer matters for how we would design the ship to go out
there and scoop it out for recycling, or just good old Greenpeace-style
cleanup.  I would contribute a hundred bucks to that.  I contribute that
much and more to a local trash cleanup with my cub scouts.  

 

So if that trash island is real, it would make sense to build an incinerator
aboard a retired warship (which are practically free to anyone with a good
idea), then go out there and get it.  A local hobbyist group recently took
possession of a retired Coast Guard cutter as an example.  You can go on
satellite view, enter Carquinez Strait Martinez CA, and find some old ships
moored out in the bay.  Something like that could be repurposed for grabbing
scoops of floating plastic trash and incinerating it.

 

spike

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131215/92807089/attachment.html>

From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Dec 16 03:19:13 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sun, 15 Dec 2013 19:19:13 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Coursera Nanotechnology has begun
In-Reply-To: <20131112073253.GW5661@leitl.org>
References: <20131112073253.GW5661@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ=vfayv+zkxV2MaqjRbZfButV5Ewq4XnjpFydU5kqdxg@mail.gmail.com>

And now the course is done.  I got a perfect on all the quizzes, though
having free retries helped a lot, especially with the more ambiguous
questions.

The actual science was legit, even if the Drexler-bashing wasn't
substantiated - but understandable since they focus on nearer-term
applications.  (Especially with the potential motive to dissociate from
Drexlerian visions that was presented.)  Still, I got the sense that if a
solid incremental path to that vision could be presented, they'd be for
taking the steps, at least (even if not betting on where they lead).

What did others who took it, think of it?


On Mon, Nov 11, 2013 at 11:32 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

>
> https://www.coursera.org/course/nanotech
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131215/df82c3b5/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Mon Dec 16 07:19:06 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2013 08:19:06 +0100
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
References: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
 <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AE2593.3050804@aleph.se> <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
Message-ID: <52AEA96A.20109@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-16 00:03, spike wrote:
> Cool idea!  It has my wheels spinning, mostly on variations on a theme.  I
> am thinking about a tube of some sort, which floats vertically with the top
> end about a meter above the surface, diameter about 2 meters, length of
> about 20 meters, set up in such a way that it bobs in the water.  At the top
> end periphery, you create hinged doors which allows water to pour in when
> submerged but prevents it from flowing back out.

I think
http://intellectualventureslab.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/Salter-Sink-white-paper-300dpi1.pdf
had a good point about their super-simple design: no moving parts. 
Hinged doors sound like they might break, and then they need to be 
replaced/repaired.




-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From anders at aleph.se  Mon Dec 16 07:19:23 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2013 08:19:23 +0100
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
References: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
 <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AE2593.3050804@aleph.se> <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
Message-ID: <52AEA97B.2090303@aleph.se>

The problem with the garbage patch idea as it has been promulgated in 
the public consciousness is indeed that it makes people think it is a 
floating garbage dump. This leads to all sorts of well-meaning and 
stupid projects like
http://www.recycledisland.com/oceansofplastic.html
http://www.filtersfast.com/blog/index.php/2010/05/the-plastiki-boat-a-new-kind-of-bottle-plastic-recycling/
(which I criticized roundly at 
http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2010/07/unethical_design.html ) 
Filtering out the plastic will also filter out all the local life.



-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From spike66 at att.net  Mon Dec 16 15:56:33 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2013 07:56:33 -0800
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <52AEA97B.2090303@aleph.se>
References: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
 <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AE2593.3050804@aleph.se> <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
 <52AEA97B.2090303@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <01c801cefa77$65654170$302fc450$@att.net>


-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Sent: Sunday, December 15, 2013 11:19 PM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes

>...The problem with the garbage patch idea as it has been promulgated in
the public consciousness is indeed that it makes people think it is a
floating garbage dump. This leads to all sorts of well-meaning and stupid
projects like http://www.recycledisland.com/oceansofplastic.html
http://www.filtersfast.com/blog/index.php/2010/05/the-plastiki-boat-a-new-ki
nd-of-bottle-plastic-recycling/
(which I criticized roundly at
http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2010/07/unethical_design.html )
Filtering out the plastic will also filter out all the local life...
--
Anders Sandberg
_______________________________________________

Anders, thanks this is exactly what I was looking for, some more reasonable
explanation of this floating plastic garbage dump.  We know how dust bunnies
form under a bed: particles can more easily stick to a big fuzzy glob of
dust than they can escape from it.  We have all seen the suspended
particulate in a bright beam of light coming in a window, and don't tell me
your house is so clean you have never seen that.  Those particles stick
together.  In that sense, dust bunnies clean the air.  So quit taking them
away.

I had been given a description of that mid-Pacific garbage dump as the
plastic equivalent of a huge dust bunny.  One source claimed it was in
places 90 ft thick.  Then I started wondering why I we don't have any actual
pictures of it out there.  Now I know: that version of the garbage in the
gyre is fiction.  Environmentalists harm their own cause when the promulgate
this sort of thing.  If such a huge concentrated glob of plastic debris
existed, it would be worth salvaging.  At 5 kg per square km of sea, no way.


I have no doubt the sea surface is covered with bobbing plastic bottles, and
recall that all this came along in just the past 40 yrs or so.  I recall not
so long ago, soda came in glass bottles.  In my own misspent youth, when
soda came in goatskins.  You had to be careful to not put new soda in old
goatskins, for it would burst.  

It does seem to me we should be able to invent a digestible form of plastic,
even if it reduces the theoretical shelf life of the soda.

spike



From anders at aleph.se  Mon Dec 16 17:51:35 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2013 18:51:35 +0100
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <01c801cefa77$65654170$302fc450$@att.net>
References: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
 <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AE2593.3050804@aleph.se> <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
 <52AEA97B.2090303@aleph.se> <01c801cefa77$65654170$302fc450$@att.net>
Message-ID: <52AF3DA7.3020008@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-16 16:56, spike wrote:
> I had been given a description of that mid-Pacific garbage dump as the
> plastic equivalent of a huge dust bunny.

Indeed. Of course, it is also helped by the circulating gyre. It is very 
similar to a recurrent dust bunny found in the hallway-like entrance to 
my bedroom two meters from the door, ten centimeters from the wall: 
every time I pass I produce a micro-tornado that brings more dust past, 
but the bunny remains in the invariant location and slowly grows. Until 
I notice it, marvel a bit at fluid dynamics, and remove it (temporarily).

In the case of the garbage it is not an integrated structure (unlike a 
proper dust bunny, where hairs and fibers act as a matrix). But in a 
gyre there is no need for it.

> It does seem to me we should be able to invent a digestible form of plastic,
> even if it reduces the theoretical shelf life of the soda.

Biodegradable plastic seems to be widely used, although not for bottles 
(PET seems to be the favorite there). I suspect that they generally do 
not handle water well.

Maybe what we really should look for is something that likes to bind to 
plastic fragments, binding them together into larger and larger clumps. 
Eventually they will either sink, drift out of the gyre or just become 
micro-islands. It is not clear to me that large composites of plastic 
are bad per se: they might be useful surfaces for a lot of organisms to 
grow on.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Dec 16 18:52:53 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2013 13:52:53 -0500
Subject: [ExI] how to tame hurricanes
In-Reply-To: <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
References: <D8446F1FA3FC429B98F3B292B9A1DF68@grandviewpatPC>
 <CAJPayv1KO7JabYMBYgSoTroJKQrFVgjL1QkWcbD4d-W2HDS48w@mail.gmail.com>
 <52AE2593.3050804@aleph.se>
 <001201cef9e9$d8ae4980$8a0adc80$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2sW-k5DmKg6_PXtqWZ9vWR5UitbNZMHJ++B9G7t9z-tg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Dec 15, 2013 at 6:03 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
> > Cool idea!  It has my wheels spinning, mostly on variations on a theme.
>  I
> am thinking about a tube of some sort, which floats vertically with the top
> end about a meter above the surface, diameter about 2 meters, length of
> about 20 meters, set up in such a way that it bobs in the water.  At the
> top
> end periphery, you create hinged doors which allows water to pour in when
> submerged but prevents it from flowing back out.
>

At only 2 meters in diameter you'd need 2500 to equal one Salter Sink of
100 meters, and moving parts and waterproof doors sound more expensive than
old used tires.

  John K Clark
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131216/22b62ea3/attachment.html>

From brent.allsop at canonizer.com  Tue Dec 17 10:35:18 2013
From: brent.allsop at canonizer.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2013 03:35:18 -0700
Subject: [ExI] "Law of the Crypto Coin" proven by new data point?
Message-ID: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>



Transhumanites,

Now that Bitcoin has hit a $1000/BTC in 7 months, has anyone not in the 
"Law of the Crypto Coin" camp been converted by the fact that now 6 of 
all 7 order of magnitude increases, have all been in about 6 months?  If 
not, how many more 6 month order of magnitude increases will be required 
to convert you?

So far, it seems the expert consensus on this "Law of the Crypto Coin" 
is still unanimous.

http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2

Would anyone be in any way justified in drawing any conclusions from 
this unanimous consensus?

We are also working on a new camp statement in Google docs which is 
proposing a new section titled:

     Predicted Crypto Currency End Game

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1G2NaqU2ut1yZOd-AT9an6OPlGZJMVGvr214JWtJ373k/edit?usp=sharing

It'd be great to find out, concisely and quantitatively, how many of you 
do or do not agree, with all this and why.

Upwards,

Brent Allsop




From anders at aleph.se  Tue Dec 17 14:11:07 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2013 15:11:07 +0100
Subject: [ExI] "Law of the Crypto Coin" proven by new data point?
In-Reply-To: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>
References: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <52B05B7B.4020104@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-17 11:35, Brent Allsop wrote:
>
> So far, it seems the expert consensus on this "Law of the Crypto Coin"
> is still unanimous.
>
> http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2
>
> Would anyone be in any way justified in drawing any conclusions from
> this unanimous consensus?

Hmm. Having consensus may not be as important as knowing what the people 
who are good at forecasting are forecasting. So ideally you should check 
forecasting quality and then weigh the predictions/opinions based on 
this. However, one can do much better:

Have you looked at IARPAs work on Aggregative Content Analysing (ACE)?
http://www.iarpa.gov/Programs/ia/ACE/ace.html
In particular, Lyle Ungar, et al. The Good Judgment Project: A Large 
Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions:
https://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/FSS/FSS12/paper/download/5570/5871

> We used a panel of more than 2,000 forecasters
> to systematically compare the performance of four different
> collaborative processes on a battery of political prediction
> problems. We found that teams and prediction markets
> systematically outperformed averages of individual
> forecasters, that training forecasters helps, and that the exact
> form of how predictions are combined has a large effect on
> overall prediction accuracy.

Overall, these findings seem to suggest that Canonizer might indeed be 
useful - IF one does accurate weighing, makes sure there is team 
interaction, and possibly include prediction markets.

In the case of bitcoin, I guess one can use the currency itself as a 
prediction market if there is a way for skeptics to short it.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Dec 17 13:52:44 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2013 14:52:44 +0100
Subject: [ExI] "Law of the Crypto Coin" proven by new data point?
In-Reply-To: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>
References: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <20131217135244.GU10793@leitl.org>

On Tue, Dec 17, 2013 at 03:35:18AM -0700, Brent Allsop wrote:
> 
> 
> Transhumanites,
> 
> Now that Bitcoin has hit a $1000/BTC in 7 months, has anyone not in
> the "Law of the Crypto Coin" camp been converted by the fact that

You seem to subscribe to the "Reading of Tealeaves" camp.

> now 6 of all 7 order of magnitude increases, have all been in about
> 6 months?  If not, how many more 6 month order of magnitude
> increases will be required to convert you?

To convert me to the "Reading of Tealeaves" camp?
 
> So far, it seems the expert consensus on this "Law of the Crypto

Truth is not a function of human belief quorum, especially
about the future. Especially, about some self-selected
"experts".

> Coin" is still unanimous.
> 
> http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2
> 
> Would anyone be in any way justified in drawing any conclusions from
> this unanimous consensus?

What's the expert consensus on the value of tulip bulbs?
Is that a buy or a sell?
 
> We are also working on a new camp statement in Google docs which is
> proposing a new section titled:
> 
>     Predicted Crypto Currency End Game
> 
> https://docs.google.com/document/d/1G2NaqU2ut1yZOd-AT9an6OPlGZJMVGvr214JWtJ373k/edit?usp=sharing
> 
> It'd be great to find out, concisely and quantitatively, how many of
> you do or do not agree, with all this and why.


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Tue Dec 17 16:33:52 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2013 17:33:52 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] "Law of the Crypto Coin" proven by new data point?
In-Reply-To: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>
References: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1312171711260.12494@tau.ceti.pl>

On Tue, 17 Dec 2013, Brent Allsop wrote:

> 
> 
> Transhumanites,
> 
> Now that Bitcoin has hit a $1000/BTC in 7 months, has anyone not in the "Law
> of the Crypto Coin" camp been converted by the fact that now 6 of all 7 order
> of magnitude increases, have all been in about 6 months?  If not, how many
> more 6 month order of magnitude increases will be required to convert you?

I have not been converted (but my affilliation to "Transhumanites" isn't 
obvious, so go figure). I don't think there is any amount of increase that 
could convert me to this "camp". But it could make me consider some short 
to medium term speculation, by all means quick before it bubbles out.

If anyone seriously considers there will be time (say, a year or three 
from now) when current US debt could be paid off by sum of 14BTC (or make 
it 1400 if you will) donated by some benevolent owner, I'd like to hear 
about it. I'm not ruling this out completely, but it sounds rather 
ridiculous to me, right now.

> Would anyone be in any way justified in drawing any conclusions from this
> unanimous consensus?

"Unanimous consensus" and reality do not go the same path.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From painlord2k at libero.it  Tue Dec 17 17:16:15 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2013 18:16:15 +0100
Subject: [ExI] "Law of the Crypto Coin" proven by new data point?
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1312171711260.12494@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1312171711260.12494@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <52B086DF.8050401@libero.it>

Il 17/12/2013 17:33, Tomasz Rola ha scritto:

> If anyone seriously considers there will be time (say, a year or three 
> from now) when current US debt could be paid off by sum of 14BTC (or make 
> it 1400 if you will) donated by some benevolent owner, I'd like to hear 
> about it. I'm not ruling this out completely, but it sounds rather 
> ridiculous to me, right now.

Who would had think one loaf of bread in 1923 Wiemar would be worth more
Marks than all Marks existing in 1919?

I'm not in the "Law of Bitcoin" camp, but what you say happened before
already.

Mirco


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Tue Dec 17 17:49:03 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2013 18:49:03 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] "Law of the Crypto Coin" proven by new data point?
In-Reply-To: <52B086DF.8050401@libero.it>
References: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1312171711260.12494@tau.ceti.pl>
 <52B086DF.8050401@libero.it>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1312171837100.12494@tau.ceti.pl>

On Tue, 17 Dec 2013, Mirco Romanato wrote:

> Il 17/12/2013 17:33, Tomasz Rola ha scritto:
> 
> > If anyone seriously considers there will be time (say, a year or three 
> > from now) when current US debt could be paid off by sum of 14BTC (or make 
> > it 1400 if you will) donated by some benevolent owner, I'd like to hear 
> > about it. I'm not ruling this out completely, but it sounds rather 
> > ridiculous to me, right now.
> 
> Who would had think one loaf of bread in 1923 Wiemar would be worth more
> Marks than all Marks existing in 1919?
> 
> I'm not in the "Law of Bitcoin" camp, but what you say happened before
> already.

I consider hyperinflation an extreme case. In such case, perhaps one could 
have paid current US debt by selling some well located 5-bedroom house (or 
a loaf of bread). If "Law of Bitcoin" requires extreme cases to work, I am 
not going to invest in this. Outcomes of extremes are too unpredictable 
and I don't like it. Extremes do happen from time to time, but I don't 
want to make bets based on some extreme going to happen.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From tech101 at gmail.com  Tue Dec 17 23:40:30 2013
From: tech101 at gmail.com (Adam A. Ford)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 10:40:30 +1100
Subject: [ExI] Coursera Nanotechnology has begun
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQ=vfayv+zkxV2MaqjRbZfButV5Ewq4XnjpFydU5kqdxg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20131112073253.GW5661@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQ=vfayv+zkxV2MaqjRbZfButV5Ewq4XnjpFydU5kqdxg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CABG8BmwtkJ_FbX1EJZpLU62AL3ESEZ-_nkLFhB2-5Yanm0p93A@mail.gmail.com>

It was great though my participation dropped off towards the end - I did do
the exam just in time, but missed out on peer reviewing other people's
exams - not by choice.

I would recommend the course despite the Drexler bashing.  There was
significant attention to Drexler in the forums and some of the staff were
brought to task said Drexler bashing too :)


On Mon, Dec 16, 2013 at 2:19 PM, Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com> wrote:

> cially with the pot




Kind regards,

Adam A. Ford
Director - Humanity+ Global, Director - Humanity+ Australia, Chair - Humanity+
@ Melbourne Summit
 Chair - Singularity Summit Australia
Director - Future Day

Mob: +61 421 979 977 | Email:  tech101 at gmail.com
<http://summit.singinst.org.au>

*Science, Technology & the Future <http://hplusconf.com.au>*
conference on *30th
Nov - 1st Dec 2013*. *"The conference will feature a diverse range of
presenters from across the globe. Scientists, Engineers, Artists and
Philosophers will discuss evidence-based research, community awareness of
rapid technological change, and scenarios for navigating our future."*

*Future Day <http://futureday.org> - "Join the conversation on Future Day
March 1st to explore the possibilities about how the future is transforming
us. You can celebrate Future Day however you like, the ball is in your
court ? feel free to send a photo of your Future Day gatherings to
info at futureday.org <info at futureday.org>, and your jubilation may wind up
being commemorated on the Future Day website and the Facebook page!
<http://www.facebook.com/pages/Future-Day/237779372974327>"*

Humanity+ <http://humanityplus.org> | Humanity+
Australia<http://hplusconf.com.au>| Singularity
Summit Australia <http://singularitysummit.com.au> |
Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Singularity-Summit-Australia/136972026316342?v=app_2344061033>|
Twitter <http://twitter.com/singsum_au> |
YouTube<http://youtube.com/TheRationalFuture>| Future
Day <http://FutureDay.org>

"A new type of thinking is essential if mankind is to survive and move
toward higher levels." ("Atomic Education Urged by Albert Einstein", New
York Times, 25 May 1946)

Please consider the environment before printing this email
<http://hplusconf.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/H+logo_mauve_embossed_dropshadow_trans.png>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131218/32afa54e/attachment.html>

From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Wed Dec 18 03:15:30 2013
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2013 22:15:30 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Printing pizza and shrimp treadmills
Message-ID: <201312180334.rBI3Y3od028523@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

<http://www.politico.com/story/2013/12/tom-coburn-federal-spending-wastebook-pizza-101238.html>

As with Senator Coburn's (and the press's) past mocking of the 
treadmill for shrimp, this year's $124,955 from NASA for a mechanical 
engineer to build a 3d-printer that can print a pizza is a sensible expense.

The treadmill for shrimp is a way to understand their locomotion, 
which is useful for the development of walking robots. (A very 
important area of research with benefits from home healthcare to 
improved prosthetics to battlefield to rescue operations.)

Likewise, figuring out how to use 3d printers to create tasty, 
healthy, and safe food is a sensible investment. (Useful in 
constrained physical environments, like submarines or manned space 
missions, or specialized medical situations, and a surrogate for 
other organic printing, e.g., of pharmaceuticals.)

There's plenty the government spends that's wasted, better done 
privately, or exceeds my understanding of constitutional authority, 
and I commend Senator Coburn for highlighting this annually.

But these two examples just betray the ignorance of technology and 
engineering of anyone mocking them.


-- David.



From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Dec 18 06:15:13 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2013 22:15:13 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Coursera Nanotechnology has begun
In-Reply-To: <CABG8BmwtkJ_FbX1EJZpLU62AL3ESEZ-_nkLFhB2-5Yanm0p93A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20131112073253.GW5661@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQ=vfayv+zkxV2MaqjRbZfButV5Ewq4XnjpFydU5kqdxg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CABG8BmwtkJ_FbX1EJZpLU62AL3ESEZ-_nkLFhB2-5Yanm0p93A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTqNQ+sSu=cdBwFnf4ffwhFWC33TG0vcT+L+kJTEVzWZA@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Dec 17, 2013 at 3:40 PM, Adam A. Ford <tech101 at gmail.com> wrote:

> It was great though my participation dropped off towards the end - I did
> do the exam just in time, but missed out on peer reviewing other people's
> exams - not by choice.
>

Narrow time window for that, relatively speaking.  Apparently this is a
consequence of how they're done - i.e., blame Coursera's format.

Did you do the extra credit quiz?  They said that'll make up for anyone who
had to miss the peer assignment.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131217/2abe2ae5/attachment.html>

From tech101 at gmail.com  Wed Dec 18 06:42:31 2013
From: tech101 at gmail.com (Adam A. Ford)
Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2013 22:42:31 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Coursera Nanotechnology has begun
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTqNQ+sSu=cdBwFnf4ffwhFWC33TG0vcT+L+kJTEVzWZA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20131112073253.GW5661@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQ=vfayv+zkxV2MaqjRbZfButV5Ewq4XnjpFydU5kqdxg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CABG8BmwtkJ_FbX1EJZpLU62AL3ESEZ-_nkLFhB2-5Yanm0p93A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNTqNQ+sSu=cdBwFnf4ffwhFWC33TG0vcT+L+kJTEVzWZA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CABG8Bmw23=7W8UvUAQnOpnstwCovSmgG0ZmNyeK7=TViO6xnvA@mail.gmail.com>

I intend to do the extra credit quiz if it is still open - I hope it is
open until Dec 24th like the rest of the other quizes:
https://class.coursera.org/nanotech-001/quiz

Kind regards,

Adam A. Ford
Director - Humanity+ Global, Director - Humanity+ Australia, Chair - Humanity+
@ Melbourne Summit
 Chair - Singularity Summit Australia
Director - Future Day

Mob: +61 421 979 977 | Email:  tech101 at gmail.com
<http://summit.singinst.org.au>

*Science, Technology & the Future <http://hplusconf.com.au>*
conference on *30th
Nov - 1st Dec 2013*. *"The conference will feature a diverse range of
presenters from across the globe. Scientists, Engineers, Artists and
Philosophers will discuss evidence-based research, community awareness of
rapid technological change, and scenarios for navigating our future."*

*Future Day <http://futureday.org> - "Join the conversation on Future Day
March 1st to explore the possibilities about how the future is transforming
us. You can celebrate Future Day however you like, the ball is in your
court ? feel free to send a photo of your Future Day gatherings to
info at futureday.org <info at futureday.org>, and your jubilation may wind up
being commemorated on the Future Day website and the Facebook page!
<http://www.facebook.com/pages/Future-Day/237779372974327>"*

Humanity+ <http://humanityplus.org> | Humanity+
Australia<http://hplusconf.com.au>| Singularity
Summit Australia <http://singularitysummit.com.au> |
Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Singularity-Summit-Australia/136972026316342?v=app_2344061033>|
Twitter <http://twitter.com/singsum_au> |
YouTube<http://youtube.com/TheRationalFuture>| Future
Day <http://FutureDay.org>

"A new type of thinking is essential if mankind is to survive and move
toward higher levels." ("Atomic Education Urged by Albert Einstein", New
York Times, 25 May 1946)

Please consider the environment before printing this email
<http://hplusconf.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/H+logo_mauve_embossed_dropshadow_trans.png>


On Tue, Dec 17, 2013 at 10:15 PM, Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Tue, Dec 17, 2013 at 3:40 PM, Adam A. Ford <tech101 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> It was great though my participation dropped off towards the end - I did
>> do the exam just in time, but missed out on peer reviewing other people's
>> exams - not by choice.
>>
>
> Narrow time window for that, relatively speaking.  Apparently this is a
> consequence of how they're done - i.e., blame Coursera's format.
>
> Did you do the extra credit quiz?  They said that'll make up for anyone
> who had to miss the peer assignment.
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131217/ddf15f70/attachment.html>

From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Dec 18 06:47:02 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2013 22:47:02 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Coursera Nanotechnology has begun
In-Reply-To: <CABG8Bmw23=7W8UvUAQnOpnstwCovSmgG0ZmNyeK7=TViO6xnvA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20131112073253.GW5661@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQ=vfayv+zkxV2MaqjRbZfButV5Ewq4XnjpFydU5kqdxg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CABG8BmwtkJ_FbX1EJZpLU62AL3ESEZ-_nkLFhB2-5Yanm0p93A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNTqNQ+sSu=cdBwFnf4ffwhFWC33TG0vcT+L+kJTEVzWZA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CABG8Bmw23=7W8UvUAQnOpnstwCovSmgG0ZmNyeK7=TViO6xnvA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRne0JMSWfnx4MN8jCeJMnPNQVFrLiu=2f0zTArHg66MQ@mail.gmail.com>

It is.  It's listed as quiz 3.3.  Careful: it's due the morning of the
24th, so I'd recommend taking it no later than the 23rd.


On Tue, Dec 17, 2013 at 10:42 PM, Adam A. Ford <tech101 at gmail.com> wrote:

> I intend to do the extra credit quiz if it is still open - I hope it is
> open until Dec 24th like the rest of the other quizes:
> https://class.coursera.org/nanotech-001/quiz
>
> Kind regards,
>
> Adam A. Ford
> Director - Humanity+ Global, Director - Humanity+ Australia, Chair - Humanity+
> @ Melbourne Summit
>  Chair - Singularity Summit Australia
> Director - Future Day
>
> Mob: +61 421 979 977 | Email:  tech101 at gmail.com
> <http://summit.singinst.org.au>
>
> *Science, Technology & the Future <http://hplusconf.com.au>* conference
> on *30th Nov - 1st Dec 2013*. *"The conference will feature a diverse
> range of presenters from across the globe. Scientists, Engineers, Artists
> and Philosophers will discuss evidence-based research, community awareness
> of rapid technological change, and scenarios for navigating our future."*
>
> *Future Day <http://futureday.org> - "Join the conversation on Future Day
> March 1st to explore the possibilities about how the future is transforming
> us. You can celebrate Future Day however you like, the ball is in your
> court ? feel free to send a photo of your Future Day gatherings to
> info at futureday.org <info at futureday.org>, and your jubilation may wind up
> being commemorated on the Future Day website and the Facebook page!
> <http://www.facebook.com/pages/Future-Day/237779372974327>"*
>
> Humanity+ <http://humanityplus.org> | Humanity+ Australia<http://hplusconf.com.au>| Singularity
> Summit Australia <http://singularitysummit.com.au> | Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Singularity-Summit-Australia/136972026316342?v=app_2344061033>|
> Twitter <http://twitter.com/singsum_au> | YouTube<http://youtube.com/TheRationalFuture>| Future
> Day <http://FutureDay.org>
>
> "A new type of thinking is essential if mankind is to survive and move
> toward higher levels." ("Atomic Education Urged by Albert Einstein", New
> York Times, 25 May 1946)
>
> Please consider the environment before printing this email
>
> <http://hplusconf.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/H+logo_mauve_embossed_dropshadow_trans.png>
>
>
> On Tue, Dec 17, 2013 at 10:15 PM, Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On Tue, Dec 17, 2013 at 3:40 PM, Adam A. Ford <tech101 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> It was great though my participation dropped off towards the end - I did
>>> do the exam just in time, but missed out on peer reviewing other people's
>>> exams - not by choice.
>>>
>>
>> Narrow time window for that, relatively speaking.  Apparently this is a
>> consequence of how they're done - i.e., blame Coursera's format.
>>
>> Did you do the extra credit quiz?  They said that'll make up for anyone
>> who had to miss the peer assignment.
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131217/e7b0fe07/attachment.html>

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Wed Dec 18 07:02:34 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 00:02:34 -0700
Subject: [ExI] "Law of the Crypto Coin" proven by new data point?
In-Reply-To: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>
References: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZ55=d_=4g1MjxFw8frOjrWi5mp0_dL3rO0dJjj=S_nTw@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Dec 17, 2013 at 3:35 AM, Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at canonizer.com>wrote:

>     Predicted Crypto Currency End Game
>
> https://docs.google.com/document/d/1G2NaqU2ut1yZOd-
> AT9an6OPlGZJMVGvr214JWtJ373k/edit?usp=sharing
>
>
I agree that Bitcoin is highly likely to increase in value exponentially at
something close to the current rate until the market cap of Bitcoin
approaches somewhere between 1 and 10 trillion dollars. The upper limit in
my mind is set by the fact that you don't need more money than that to do
the kinds of online transactions that Bitcoin is good for.

Quoting from HowStuffWorks
"All told, anyone looking for all of the U.S. dollars in the world in July
2013 could expect to find approximately $10.5 trillion in existence, using
the M2 money supply definition. If you just want to count actual notes and
coins, there are about U.S. $1.2 trillion floating around the globe."

So if we suppose that Bitcoin replaces the US dollar ENTIRELY, we won't
need much more than 10 trillion (current value) dollars worth in order to
transact business.

So I predict as Bitcoin market cap exceeds 1 trillion dollars it will have
grown into its usefulness, and the need for exponential growth in value
will stop because you'll be able to buy EVERYTHING that exists with the
then extant Bitcoin. There is absolutely NO POINT to having more money than
stuff to buy.

So I agree up to a point, but I don't think the economy of the world will
support a market cap of 100 trillion dollars. I'd love to hear your
argument against this Brent, assuming you have one.

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131218/9c01f4b7/attachment.html>

From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Dec 18 11:10:27 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 11:10:27 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Genetic testing of pregnancy
Message-ID: <CAL_armiy5G0p_vUaurPGLAqV=zXXYMdDcwi78vbB7wYt7HRZXg@mail.gmail.com>

Pregnant women now have an easy and risk-free way to identify genetic
flaws in their fetuses. Are we prepared for the consequences?

<http://www.technologyreview.com/review/522661/too-much-information/>

Quote:
The catch, though, is that as the accuracy of these tests continues to
improve, they will be able to detect a greater range of genetic
variations, including some with murkier implications. For example,
rather than indicating something with certainty, they could reveal
elevated risks for certain diseases or disorders. These advances could
collide with the politics of abortion and raise the ugly specter of
eugenics. When, if ever, should parents terminate pregnancies on the
basis of genetic results? Do we have the wisdom to direct our own
evolution? And perhaps most important, are there limits to how much
data parents should have?or want to have?about their children before
birth?

Perhaps the biggest question is which information will be meaningful
for parents to receive. Genetic interpretation can be a dicey game. It
is well known, for instance, that mutations in the BRCA1 gene are
strongly associated with breast cancer, but in a disturbingly large
number of cases, patients are told they have variants of unknown
significance. ?It would be very unfortunate if we started delivering
?variants of unknown significance? results in the context of
reproductive health,? Shendure says. Similarly, when it comes to
complex problems like cognitive impairment, it?s not clear how useful
it is to test for?or report on?variants that have been associated with
disabilities. Research suggests, for instance, that people with
specific duplications on chromosome 16 are at higher risk of mental
impairment. Some are severely affected, but others are ?absolutely,
perfectly healthy, functioning normally,? according to Wendy Chung,
director of clinical genetics at Columbia University.

-------------------------


BillK



From brent.allsop at canonizer.com  Wed Dec 18 16:51:15 2013
From: brent.allsop at canonizer.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 09:51:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] "Law of the Crypto Coin" proven by new data point?
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZ55=d_=4g1MjxFw8frOjrWi5mp0_dL3rO0dJjj=S_nTw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ55=d_=4g1MjxFw8frOjrWi5mp0_dL3rO0dJjj=S_nTw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52B1D283.5000309@canonizer.com>



Hi Kelly,

That is interesting to see this max valuation, but I think the leading 
crypto currency could go way beyond this, simply because of the hording 
factor. USD is a very poor investment, because of inflation, and is only 
used because of it's safety.  Also, China hoards it so they can keep 
their exchange rates low, but that is a different story, and they are 
about to pay for that Bigtime.  But people will want to hoard and invest 
in Bitcoin, much more so than USD, simply because it will be a 
significantly better investment.

Many People still think that Bitcoin is way more risky, so will stay in 
USD for way to long.  But volatility does not equal risk. If, every 
Bitcoin valuation valey is an order of magnitude higher than the 
previous one, in less than a year, and if Bitcoin has less chance of 
default than USD, it is a way safer AND a way better investment by any 
measure except volatility.  People just still place too much value on 
stability, and they will pay for such dearly.  Not smart.

Brent Allsop




On 12/18/2013 12:02 AM, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> On Tue, Dec 17, 2013 at 3:35 AM, Brent Allsop 
> <brent.allsop at canonizer.com <mailto:brent.allsop at canonizer.com>> wrote:
>
>       Predicted Crypto Currency End Game
>
>     https://docs.google.com/document/d/1G2NaqU2ut1yZOd-AT9an6OPlGZJMVGvr214JWtJ373k/edit?usp=sharing
>
>
> I agree that Bitcoin is highly likely to increase in value 
> exponentially at something close to the current rate until the market 
> cap of Bitcoin approaches somewhere between 1 and 10 trillion dollars. 
> The upper limit in my mind is set by the fact that you don't need more 
> money than that to do the kinds of online transactions that Bitcoin is 
> good for.
>
> Quoting from HowStuffWorks
> "All told, anyone looking for all of the U.S. dollars in the world in 
> July 2013 could expect to find approximately $10.5 trillion in 
> existence, using the M2 money supply definition. If you just want to 
> count actual notes and coins, there are about U.S. $1.2 trillion 
> floating around the globe."
>
> So if we suppose that Bitcoin replaces the US dollar ENTIRELY, we 
> won't need much more than 10 trillion (current value) dollars worth in 
> order to transact business.
>
> So I predict as Bitcoin market cap exceeds 1 trillion dollars it will 
> have grown into its usefulness, and the need for exponential growth in 
> value will stop because you'll be able to buy EVERYTHING that exists 
> with the then extant Bitcoin. There is absolutely NO POINT to having 
> more money than stuff to buy.
>
> So I agree up to a point, but I don't think the economy of the world 
> will support a market cap of 100 trillion dollars. I'd love to hear 
> your argument against this Brent, assuming you have one.
>
> -Kelly
>

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131218/c20a605a/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Wed Dec 18 17:04:20 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 09:04:20 -0800
Subject: [ExI] "Law of the Crypto Coin" proven by new data point?
In-Reply-To: <52B1D283.5000309@canonizer.com>
References: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ55=d_=4g1MjxFw8frOjrWi5mp0_dL3rO0dJjj=S_nTw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52B1D283.5000309@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <01c401cefc13$328d1cd0$97a75670$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Brent Allsop
.
>.Many People still think that Bitcoin is way more risky, so will stay in
USD for way to long.  But volatility does not equal risk.  .  Not smart.

Brent Allsop


Here's a prediction for you.  The US has a current government which has used
the IRS as a means of punishing its political enemies (the Tea Party for
example.)  High ranking IRS officials lied about that under oath, but there
were no consequences.  If a move is made to make this practice illegal, then
the value of bitcoins will go way up.  

 

Reasoning: the risk of bitcoin in the US is that the fed will call for an
audit of anyone who is found in possession of them.  In that way, they don't
need to pass an actual law against bitcoin or any other crypto-currency, but
rather can use the far more open-ended IRS as an enforcement agency.  If a
specific law is passed which makes it illegal to use the IRS as a defacto
law enforcement agency or as a political weapon, then most of the risk of
bitcoin goes away and the value of bitcoins would shoot for the stars.

 

spike

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131218/0100b8b4/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Wed Dec 18 17:58:19 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 09:58:19 -0800
Subject: [ExI] dicovery of irrational numbers
Message-ID: <020a01cefc1a$bce9c7f0$36bd57d0$@att.net>

 

Funny thing happened on the way to the forum: yesterday I was teaching my
son about irrational numbers.  He learned a couple weeks ago how to convert
any fraction to a decimal, so every fraction either terminates or repeats.
He entertained himself looking for the  ratio which has the longest
repeating pattern.  

 

Yesterday I used his compass to draw a radius and a half circumference, then
asked him to guess the ratio of their lengths.  First he guessed 3.  So I
constructed half a hexagon to show him it was more than three.  He next
guessed 4, so I constructed a 4R path that goes way outside the half circle.
So he guessed 3 and a tenth, which I found interesting in itself.

 

I then went on to explain irrational numbers, but his reaction really
surprised me: it really upset that little second grader.  His world just got
a bit messier.  The existence of numbers that cannot be expressed as a ratio
bothers the hell out of him.  I was vaguely reminded of the ancient Greeks'
reaction when they were confronted with the concept.  According to legend,
Hippasus discovered irrationals while on a sea voyage.  It is said to have
upset the other Pythagoreans so badly they hurled him overboard.  I don't
know if that is true, or if he was jettisoned for some other reason such as
for being a generic asshole, but I find it interesting that my own son would
be so bothered by the whole concept.

 

I am open to suggestion for how to present irrationals in a more friendly
way, especially since I have more bad news for that lad: most numbers are
irrational.  Depending on how you count them of course.  There are
infinitely many rationals of course, but there are infinely many more
irrationals, since you can give me *any* two rational numbers and I can give
you infinitely many irrationals that fit between them, larger than the
smaller and smaller than the larger.  Of course, I can also give you
infinitely many rational that fit between the two as well, but between each
of those between the two are infinitely many irrationals.

 

Aint math cooool?  {8-]

 

spike

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131218/d7294aec/attachment.html>

From johnkclark at gmail.com  Wed Dec 18 18:34:41 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 13:34:41 -0500
Subject: [ExI] dicovery of irrational numbers
In-Reply-To: <020a01cefc1a$bce9c7f0$36bd57d0$@att.net>
References: <020a01cefc1a$bce9c7f0$36bd57d0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0BVR6g_PJVe+ncgaAAFjSy6nJQ0TXBk3csXk0dhgEdvg@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Dec 18, 2013 at 12:58 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> I am open to suggestion for how to present irrationals in a more friendly
> way, especially since I have more bad news for that lad: most numbers are
> irrational.
>

It's even worst than that, at least with PI (and e) there is a infinite
series that produces it so you can find a decimal that is as close to PI as
you like, but most irrationals, nearly all in fact, are not like that, no
infinite series or anything else can produce them, they're not computable,
so you can't even get good approximations.  We can't even point at most
numbers.

  John K Clark
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131218/5c5741de/attachment.html>

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Wed Dec 18 19:27:16 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 12:27:16 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Buy! Buy! Buy! (Bitcoin again)
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwYTewt1CFvDuY7Ua2HWwkXp0dCCRu6E0885AyXn1M-wkQ@mail.gmail.com>

For anyone not paying attention this morning, bitcoin has hit a snag in
China and is now trading well under $600. If you've been putting off
jumping in, now would be a great time to do so, IMHO.

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131218/fab06c66/attachment.html>

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Wed Dec 18 19:35:02 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 12:35:02 -0700
Subject: [ExI] dicovery of irrational numbers
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv0BVR6g_PJVe+ncgaAAFjSy6nJQ0TXBk3csXk0dhgEdvg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <020a01cefc1a$bce9c7f0$36bd57d0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv0BVR6g_PJVe+ncgaAAFjSy6nJQ0TXBk3csXk0dhgEdvg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwbhHLv0CEzkVEg9=PoqTPwO-NTxAGyYnVvVTD0DaDAMzQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Dec 18, 2013 at 11:34 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Wed, Dec 18, 2013 at 12:58 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
> > I am open to suggestion for how to present irrationals in a more
>> friendly way, especially since I have more bad news for that lad: most
>> numbers are irrational.
>>
>
> It's even worst than that, at least with PI (and e) there is a infinite
> series that produces it so you can find a decimal that is as close to PI as
> you like, but most irrationals, nearly all in fact, are not like that, no
> infinite series or anything else can produce them, they're not computable,
> so you can't even get good approximations.  We can't even point at most
> numbers.
>

Have you introduced him to the concept of significant digits? That should
assuage his little engineer even if his little mathematician is stomping
about inside his head. If that doesn't help, you can introduce Chaos, the
fact that the minimalist difference in numbers can, and does in practice,
often get magnified to the point that you can not predict stuff far out.
Then he can throw out the notion of Newton's "Clockwork Universe"
altogether and have only one upset instead of two. He won't like it when he
finds out about chaos later, so you might as well tell him about this now
as well...

I'll leave it up to you as to when to introduce the truth of Santa Claus.
:-)

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131218/15a0a61b/attachment.html>

From jose_cordeiro at yahoo.com  Wed Dec 18 19:36:19 2013
From: jose_cordeiro at yahoo.com (Jose Cordeiro)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 19:36:19 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Hey ExtropyExI
Message-ID: <20131218193629.BORB5416.fed1rmfepo203.cox.net@fed1rmimpo110>


    
         
    
   
        
    
     
http://srbhosting.com/facebook.php?sywg1104vsxqhyw























jose_cordeiro at yahoo.com
Jose Cordeiro


  \\\\\
  


 Wed, 18 Dec 2013 19:36:19    
     
   
     
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131218/9158b421/attachment.html>

From msd001 at gmail.com  Wed Dec 18 20:23:32 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 15:23:32 -0500
Subject: [ExI] dicovery of irrational numbers
In-Reply-To: <020a01cefc1a$bce9c7f0$36bd57d0$@att.net>
References: <020a01cefc1a$bce9c7f0$36bd57d0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbLRNjHh2UDrefyfMYy=CVLzR_5sUCE+-wjcu+W_Ye_ZLQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Dec 18, 2013 at 12:58 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> I am open to suggestion for how to present irrationals in a more friendly
> way, especially since I have more bad news for that lad: most numbers are
> irrational.  Depending on how you count them of course.  There are
> infinitely many rationals of course, but there are infinely many more
> irrationals, since you can give me **any** two rational numbers and I can
> give you infinitely many irrationals that fit between them, larger than the
> smaller and smaller than the larger.  Of course, I can also give you
> infinitely many rational that fit between the two as well, but between each
> of those between the two are infinitely many irrationals.
>
>
>
fight fire with fire?

Draw a logarithmic spiral on a golden rectangle using a largish piece of
paper.

Now flip the paper over and draw the squares that correspond to the spiral
on the opposite side.

While keeping the spiral side hidden, cut the rectangle(s) into the
squares.  I love the sound of a heavy paper cutter making all those cuts.
 The beauty of that is you keep picking up the cutaway part and chopping
off smaller rectangles and leaving the various squares on the board part of
the cutter.  Repeat until you have too small of a rectangle to cut safely.

Now that you've made the square puzzle pieces, flip them over and
reassemble the rectangle so the spiral is visible.

I have no idea if he'll get logarithms just yet, but the inherent beauty of
the spiral is intuitive.  This golden ratio (phi) strikes me as a nearly
magical thing.

Infinite series and asymptotic approaching limits is cool, but a bit harder
to grasp.

Have you talked about the population of breeding rabbits that leads to the
Fibonacci series?  That's a series that's pretty intuitive (even in 2nd
grade) - then use the ratio of any two sequential numbers to show that the
later you go in the sequence the closer that ratio gets to phi.  So maybe
your approach to the irrational should also be asymptotic?  :)
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131218/7318a5c7/attachment.html>

From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Dec 18 20:32:15 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 20:32:15 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Hey ExtropyExI
In-Reply-To: <20131218193629.BORB5416.fed1rmfepo203.cox.net@fed1rmimpo110>
References: <20131218193629.BORB5416.fed1rmfepo203.cox.net@fed1rmimpo110>
Message-ID: <CAL_armg62ZnPUVE_k0SphhpXp8UJW_VJe6R7-h55n+wVK5sh9A@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Dec 18, 2013 at 7:36 PM, Jose Cordeiro <jose_cordeiro at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> http://xxxxxxxxxxx-  srbhosting.com/facebook.php?sywg1104vsxqhyw
>

WARNING!  Don't click!   This link redirects to a spam / malware site.


BillK


From stathisp at gmail.com  Wed Dec 18 23:53:30 2013
From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2013 10:53:30 +1100
Subject: [ExI] Buy! Buy! Buy! (Bitcoin again)
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwYTewt1CFvDuY7Ua2HWwkXp0dCCRu6E0885AyXn1M-wkQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwYTewt1CFvDuY7Ua2HWwkXp0dCCRu6E0885AyXn1M-wkQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAH=2ypXuPo4ugzj5UwEROMBj0CjgutytSxxTXH5h-6VgkusJMg@mail.gmail.com>

On 19 December 2013 06:27, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:
> For anyone not paying attention this morning, bitcoin has hit a snag in
> China and is now trading well under $600. If you've been putting off jumping
> in, now would be a great time to do so, IMHO.

If governments decide they don't like bitcoin it would be relatively
easy to shut down the exchanges and forbid its use in retail
transactions, as China has done. Bitcoin might survive, but at a much
lower price.


-- 
Stathis Papaioannou


From brent.allsop at canonizer.com  Thu Dec 19 00:23:25 2013
From: brent.allsop at canonizer.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 17:23:25 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Buy! Buy! Buy! (Bitcoin again)
In-Reply-To: <CAH=2ypXuPo4ugzj5UwEROMBj0CjgutytSxxTXH5h-6VgkusJMg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwYTewt1CFvDuY7Ua2HWwkXp0dCCRu6E0885AyXn1M-wkQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAH=2ypXuPo4ugzj5UwEROMBj0CjgutytSxxTXH5h-6VgkusJMg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52B23C7D.5040906@canonizer.com>



Stathis,

I know some of the most brilliant and productive entrepreneurs in the US 
that are thinking of leaving the US, and taking their new Bitcoin start 
ups with them, to places like Canada and Europe, where they are more 
definitively accepting of Bitcoin than the US, who is basically still 
ignoring it (making it very difficult to do Bitcoin Business here).  
Also, since China has banned it, I bet a significant amount of capital, 
and entrepreneurial brains, are already leaving China very fast, for 
greener pastures.  Even if the US and Europe tried to join China and ban 
it, countries like South Africa, where they are welcoming it, will 
similarly welcome all the capital and entrepreneurs to their shores, as 
they flee all centrally controlled anti free states.  Capital always 
flows to where it is treated the best.  It'll be interesting to see how 
long it takes centrally controlled places like China to see this, and 
the damage they are doing to their own country, and it will also be 
interesting to see how many other countries attempt the same thing, and 
for how long.  And how much those states that ban it drop in per capita 
income, during that time, compared to I would expect explosive growth in 
free states.

I think china banning it is the greatest thing that could happen to the 
west and all more free nations.  Not to mention, I plan on making 
another significant purchase of Bitcoin, come Jan 1st, from my pre tax 
IRA, so I can invest the taxes I'll owe for 18 months, before I have to 
pay them.  So this drop is price will double the amount of bitcoins I'll 
now be able to get.  I bet lots of People in the US, are planning on 
doing the same thing, come Jan 1st. I'm going to do my best to beat the 
rush.


Brent Allsop



On 12/18/2013 4:53 PM, Stathis Papaioannou wrote:
> On 19 December 2013 06:27, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:
>> For anyone not paying attention this morning, bitcoin has hit a snag in
>> China and is now trading well under $600. If you've been putting off jumping
>> in, now would be a great time to do so, IMHO.
> If governments decide they don't like bitcoin it would be relatively
> easy to shut down the exchanges and forbid its use in retail
> transactions, as China has done. Bitcoin might survive, but at a much
> lower price.
>
>



From spike66 at att.net  Thu Dec 19 00:10:45 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 16:10:45 -0800
Subject: [ExI] dicovery of irrational numbers
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwbhHLv0CEzkVEg9=PoqTPwO-NTxAGyYnVvVTD0DaDAMzQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <020a01cefc1a$bce9c7f0$36bd57d0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv0BVR6g_PJVe+ncgaAAFjSy6nJQ0TXBk3csXk0dhgEdvg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwbhHLv0CEzkVEg9=PoqTPwO-NTxAGyYnVvVTD0DaDAMzQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <038c01cefc4e$c44ca8d0$4ce5fa70$@att.net>

 

 

On Behalf Of Kelly Anderson
Subject: Re: [ExI] dicovery of irrational numbers

 

On Wed, Dec 18, 2013 at 11:34 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

On Wed, Dec 18, 2013 at 12:58 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

 

>>> I am open to suggestion for how to present irrationals in a more
friendly way, especially since I have more bad news for that lad: most
numbers are irrational. 

 

>>It's even worst than that, at least with PI (and e) there is a infinite
series that produces it so you can find a decimal that is as close to PI as
you like, but most irrationals, nearly all in fact, are not like that, no
infinite series or anything else can produce them, they're not computable,
so you can't even get good approximations.  We can't even point at most
numbers. 

 

 

Oy, good point.  My son is reacting much like scientists do when we keep
finding out there isn't really a simple consistent underlying principle, or
if so, we still don't know it.

 

>.Have you introduced him to the concept of significant digits?...

 

Yes.

 

>. That should assuage his little engineer even if his little mathematician
is stomping about inside his head.

 

Ja, that part is OK, but math is clean and precise.  Even I agree that
irrationals are ugly things.  I love them anyway; all numbers are my
friends.  But pi is ugly.  It has inner beauty with that way cool series
expansion.  Actually it has a number of expansions, but my favorite is pi=
4/1-4/3+4/5-4/7.  oh so cool is this.

 

>.If that doesn't help, you can introduce Chaos.

 

I put him off on that one.  He has a physics comic book which mentions
Schroedinger's Cat.  Being an animal lover, he wanted to know what that was
all about.  I deflected into the Uncertainty Principle for now.

 

>. Then he can throw out the notion of Newton's "Clockwork Universe"
altogether and have only one upset instead of two. He won't like it when he
finds out about chaos later, so you might as well tell him about this now as
well...

 

That's been my philosophy: kids can take bad news better than we grownups
can.

 

>.I'll leave it up to you as to when to introduce the truth of Santa Claus.
:-) -Kelly

 

I anticipated that one, never introduced the concept.  Living where we do,
there isn't much said about Santa Claus.  Most of my son's friends are
Buddhist from China or Vietnam, a few Hindu, one Muslim, plenty of agnostics
and atheists.  I just dropped him off at the home of the Muslim family for a
play date.  They have a Christmas tree.  Oy.

 

spike  

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131218/baba8045/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Wed Dec 18 23:14:32 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2013 00:14:32 +0100
Subject: [ExI] dicovery of irrational numbers
In-Reply-To: <020a01cefc1a$bce9c7f0$36bd57d0$@att.net>
References: <020a01cefc1a$bce9c7f0$36bd57d0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <52B22C58.2010100@aleph.se>

Cool. I just tried to demonstrate electric circuits for my brother's 
kids. Piece of advice: make sure you have flexible and easy to handle 
wires. And getting small lightbulbs is getting hard (torch lightbulbs 
are still sold here). However, they liked decoding resistors and my 
brother did a neat setup with the LEDs I bought. I also electrolysed 
some water.

On 2013-12-18 18:58, spike wrote:
>
> I am open to suggestion for how to present irrationals in a more 
> friendly way, especially since I have more bad news for that lad: most 
> numbers are irrational.  Depending on how you count them of course.  
> There are infinitely many rationals of course, but there are infinely 
> many more irrationals, since you can give me **any** two rational 
> numbers and I can give you infinitely many irrationals that fit 
> between them, larger than the smaller and smaller than the larger. Of 
> course, I can also give you infinitely many rational that fit between 
> the two as well, but between each of those between the two are 
> infinitely many irrationals.
>
>

I would do an exploration of the number line. Go through the fractions 
and plot them, so he can see the neat pattern they form. And that there 
are always gaps - between every two rationals there will be space for 
some (indeed, a lot) of irrationals.

Incidentally, anybody who has a good idea for how to make an adjustable 
Faraday cage to experiment with a tunable (and repeatable) bad reception 
environment for a cellphone?

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131219/84fa10f4/attachment.html>

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Thu Dec 19 00:46:29 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 17:46:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Buy! Buy! Buy! (Bitcoin again)
In-Reply-To: <CAH=2ypXuPo4ugzj5UwEROMBj0CjgutytSxxTXH5h-6VgkusJMg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwYTewt1CFvDuY7Ua2HWwkXp0dCCRu6E0885AyXn1M-wkQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAH=2ypXuPo4ugzj5UwEROMBj0CjgutytSxxTXH5h-6VgkusJMg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZPm5R93NnF9s=m6FmU-A2xfj+u_h41ob55GfiDzL_QRg@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Dec 18, 2013 at 4:53 PM, Stathis Papaioannou <stathisp at gmail.com>wrote:

> On 19 December 2013 06:27, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:
> If governments decide they don't like bitcoin it would be relatively
> easy to shut down the exchanges and forbid its use in retail
> transactions, as China has done. Bitcoin might survive, but at a much
> lower price.
>

China's problem was that people were using Bitcoin as a way to export their
personal wealth. Their centralized control of the Yuan and its official
exchange rate was being undermined by Bitcoin.

I am not aware of a ban on retail transactions. Where did you get that
information? The stories I have been reading say that the exchanges simply
stopped accepting Yuan because the government said they couldn't.

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131218/7724c324/attachment.html>

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Thu Dec 19 00:50:11 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 17:50:11 -0700
Subject: [ExI] dicovery of irrational numbers
In-Reply-To: <52B22C58.2010100@aleph.se>
References: <020a01cefc1a$bce9c7f0$36bd57d0$@att.net>
 <52B22C58.2010100@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZNTaHV_fixhVYfZCu4ZVeBouWWruFeRG2DTNATSB9HAg@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Dec 18, 2013 at 4:14 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

>  Cool. I just tried to demonstrate electric circuits for my brother's
> kids. Piece of advice: make sure you have flexible and easy to handle
> wires. And getting small lightbulbs is getting hard (torch lightbulbs are
> still sold here). However, they liked decoding resistors and my brother did
> a neat setup with the LEDs I bought. I also electrolysed some water.
>

We have been doing cool things at the Maker Space I belong to with
Arduinos. Very cool what you can do with an Arduino, some LEDs, wires and
resistors. We built a 1D pong game last night. Very cool stuff.

-Kelly
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131218/f8682d6a/attachment.html>

From stathisp at gmail.com  Thu Dec 19 01:20:06 2013
From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2013 12:20:06 +1100
Subject: [ExI] Buy! Buy! Buy! (Bitcoin again)
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZPm5R93NnF9s=m6FmU-A2xfj+u_h41ob55GfiDzL_QRg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwYTewt1CFvDuY7Ua2HWwkXp0dCCRu6E0885AyXn1M-wkQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAH=2ypXuPo4ugzj5UwEROMBj0CjgutytSxxTXH5h-6VgkusJMg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZPm5R93NnF9s=m6FmU-A2xfj+u_h41ob55GfiDzL_QRg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAH=2ypWEYukPygpCZkG8fh-WdHOZFTkn2Q9tiqhqAEpmq=D3_A@mail.gmail.com>

On 19 December 2013 11:46, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Wed, Dec 18, 2013 at 4:53 PM, Stathis Papaioannou <stathisp at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>>
>> On 19 December 2013 06:27, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:
>> If governments decide they don't like bitcoin it would be relatively
>> easy to shut down the exchanges and forbid its use in retail
>> transactions, as China has done. Bitcoin might survive, but at a much
>> lower price.
>
>
> China's problem was that people were using Bitcoin as a way to export their
> personal wealth. Their centralized control of the Yuan and its official
> exchange rate was being undermined by Bitcoin.
>
> I am not aware of a ban on retail transactions. Where did you get that
> information? The stories I have been reading say that the exchanges simply
> stopped accepting Yuan because the government said they couldn't.
>
> -Kelly

My understanding from the PBOC announcement 2 weeks earlier was that
bitcoin was not to be used as currency. Baidu was accepting bitcoin
for some transactions but after the announcement stopped doing so.

http://rt.com/business/bitcoin-china-financial-institution-754/

-- 
Stathis Papaioannou


From stathisp at gmail.com  Thu Dec 19 01:22:10 2013
From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2013 12:22:10 +1100
Subject: [ExI] Buy! Buy! Buy! (Bitcoin again)
In-Reply-To: <52B23C7D.5040906@canonizer.com>
References: <CAPy8RwYTewt1CFvDuY7Ua2HWwkXp0dCCRu6E0885AyXn1M-wkQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAH=2ypXuPo4ugzj5UwEROMBj0CjgutytSxxTXH5h-6VgkusJMg@mail.gmail.com>
 <52B23C7D.5040906@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <CAH=2ypWZWYsiJZGVUzw0nACdf=Qo2Wz_dHgRWdzB1qapObUang@mail.gmail.com>

On 19 December 2013 11:23, Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at canonizer.com> wrote:
>
>
> Stathis,
>
> I know some of the most brilliant and productive entrepreneurs in the US
> that are thinking of leaving the US, and taking their new Bitcoin start ups
> with them, to places like Canada and Europe, where they are more
> definitively accepting of Bitcoin than the US, who is basically still
> ignoring it (making it very difficult to do Bitcoin Business here).  Also,
> since China has banned it, I bet a significant amount of capital, and
> entrepreneurial brains, are already leaving China very fast, for greener
> pastures.  Even if the US and Europe tried to join China and ban it,
> countries like South Africa, where they are welcoming it, will similarly
> welcome all the capital and entrepreneurs to their shores, as they flee all
> centrally controlled anti free states.  Capital always flows to where it is
> treated the best.  It'll be interesting to see how long it takes centrally
> controlled places like China to see this, and the damage they are doing to
> their own country, and it will also be interesting to see how many other
> countries attempt the same thing, and for how long.  And how much those
> states that ban it drop in per capita income, during that time, compared to
> I would expect explosive growth in free states.
>
> I think china banning it is the greatest thing that could happen to the west
> and all more free nations.  Not to mention, I plan on making another
> significant purchase of Bitcoin, come Jan 1st, from my pre tax IRA, so I can
> invest the taxes I'll owe for 18 months, before I have to pay them.  So this
> drop is price will double the amount of bitcoins I'll now be able to get.  I
> bet lots of People in the US, are planning on doing the same thing, come Jan
> 1st. I'm going to do my best to beat the rush.

Brent, you may be right, but if if a large market bans iPhones, the
price of Apple shares will fall.

-- 
Stathis Papaioannou


From ddraig at gmail.com  Thu Dec 19 01:57:42 2013
From: ddraig at gmail.com (ddraig)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2013 12:57:42 +1100
Subject: [ExI] Buy! Buy! Buy! (Bitcoin again)
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwYTewt1CFvDuY7Ua2HWwkXp0dCCRu6E0885AyXn1M-wkQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwYTewt1CFvDuY7Ua2HWwkXp0dCCRu6E0885AyXn1M-wkQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAGfkSy0Z9aUkJ4Q2gXRCbSfW0rN0FS=Dun-qHha9hjNY08QPXQ@mail.gmail.com>

On 19 December 2013 06:27, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:

> For anyone not paying attention this morning, bitcoin has hit a snag in
> China and is now trading well under $600. If you've been putting off
> jumping in, now would be a great time to do so, IMHO.
>


Or it is going to continue to fall and you'll lose money.  It's insanely
volatile at the moment -  I think this is a great time to trade in it, but
I'm not sure I'd be investing in it, right now.

WRT to other comments in this thread: South Africa? No one in their right
mind is going to emigrate to South Africa, regardless of it's free market
policies.

Dwayne
-- 
  ddraig at pobox.com irc.bluesphereweb.com #dna
         ...r.e.t.u.r.n....t.o....t.h.e....s.o.u.r.c.e...
        http://tinyurl.com/he-is-right-you-know-jpg
our aim is wakefulness,  our enemy is dreamless sleep
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131219/6cbae9c2/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Thu Dec 19 10:21:03 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2013 11:21:03 +0100
Subject: [ExI] dicovery of irrational numbers
In-Reply-To: <038c01cefc4e$c44ca8d0$4ce5fa70$@att.net>
References: <020a01cefc1a$bce9c7f0$36bd57d0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv0BVR6g_PJVe+ncgaAAFjSy6nJQ0TXBk3csXk0dhgEdvg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwbhHLv0CEzkVEg9=PoqTPwO-NTxAGyYnVvVTD0DaDAMzQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <038c01cefc4e$c44ca8d0$4ce5fa70$@att.net>
Message-ID: <52B2C88F.9000203@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-19 01:10, spike wrote:
>>>It's even worst than that, at least with PI (and e) there is a infinite
> series that produces it so you can find a decimal that is as close to PI
> as you like, but most irrationals, nearly all in fact, are not like
> that, no infinite series or anything else can produce them, they're not
> computable, so you can't even get good approximations.  We can't even
> point at most numbers.
>
> Oy, good point.  My son is reacting much like scientists do when we keep
> finding out there isn?t really a simple consistent underlying principle,
> or if so, we still don?t know it.

Well, you could reassure you that mathematicians are on top of the game. 
We do understand irrationals, transcendentals and uncomputable numbers 
fairly well.

The real lesson is that there are some deep principles but most everyday 
approaches only approximate them. Natural numbers need negative numbers 
as an extension, and fractions require the rationals. Anything 
continuous will bring in irrationals, but *which* irrationals depends on 
what kind of continuous stuff you use (classical geometry works in a 
particular field lacking cube roots, for example). When you just make an 
intuitive jump and generalize, like the real line, you might introduce a 
lot of unexpected subtleties and unwanted extra stuff. But the game of 
mathematics is to figure out principles that get it under control: group 
theory, field theory, extension theory and so on.

Fun thought I had with Ben Goertzel: in a different world we might have 
invented mechanical computers before calculus and a counterpart to 
Turing proved computability. In that world we might regard computable 
reals as "real", and uncomputable reals as weird special cases for 
mathematicians to talk about. Most of calculus would be unchanged, but 
the mean value theorem and a few others would only be true for the 
"uncomputable real line" and likely be regarded as esoteric.


> Ja, that part is OK, but math is clean and precise.  Even I agree that
> irrationals are ugly things.  I love them anyway; all numbers are my
> friends.  But pi is ugly.  It has inner beauty with that way cool series
> expansion.  Actually it has a number of expansions, but my favorite is
> pi= 4/1-4/3+4/5-4/7?  oh so cool is this.

I love continued fractions. Although pi is a bit messy there too. 
Incidentally, continued fractions is the reason the golden ratio is the 
most irrational number in a strict sense.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Thu Dec 19 13:11:02 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2013 06:11:02 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Buy! Buy! Buy! (Bitcoin again)
In-Reply-To: <CAGfkSy0Z9aUkJ4Q2gXRCbSfW0rN0FS=Dun-qHha9hjNY08QPXQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwYTewt1CFvDuY7Ua2HWwkXp0dCCRu6E0885AyXn1M-wkQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAGfkSy0Z9aUkJ4Q2gXRCbSfW0rN0FS=Dun-qHha9hjNY08QPXQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwazxHKbp=YLqZWhiG1gjTgjXKTgJ9y3V+L=DpnCCS5u9A@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Dec 18, 2013 at 6:57 PM, ddraig <ddraig at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> On 19 December 2013 06:27, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> For anyone not paying attention this morning, bitcoin has hit a snag in
>> China and is now trading well under $600. If you've been putting off
>> jumping in, now would be a great time to do so, IMHO.
>>
>
>
> Or it is going to continue to fall and you'll lose money.
>

It is certainly a tautology that it will rise or fall, so your bets are
covered on both sides now, congratulations. At this point it's back up to
$670, so anyone lucky enough to buy yesterday is already sitting Very
pretty.


> It's insanely volatile at the moment -  I think this is a great time to
> trade in it, but I'm not sure I'd be investing in it, right now.
>

Bitcoin is an insanely awesome solution looking for an insanely awesome set
of problems to solve. The press keeps focusing on the "Bitcoin killer app
of the day", first it was Silk Road, then giving financial mobility to
Chinese millionaires, but trust me there will be more and different killer
apps tomorrow. I'm working on one myself aimed at serving the third world.
The recent Bitcoin+Bittorrent thread is another cool possibility. Trust me,
there are thousands of opportunities out there right now. Think of what you
would do if you could register any .com you wanted right now. That's where
Bitcoin is at the moment. Put your claim down anywhere, and you could be
rich some day. And I'm not talking about hoarding Bitcoin, I'm talking
about implementing killer apps using it.

The insane problem of late is that Chinese billionaires have all their
money trapped in Yuan and the economic pressure to get some of that money
translated into dollars and euros is like a fire hose.*
They want to diversity, but they are trapped in Yuan by a dictatorship. For
a brief moment, Bitcoin was the solution to this very bad problem for a few
very rich people. Imagine what would happen if they had Internet in North
Korea for a few months. While there was a hole in the dike, millions of
dollars worth of value escaped China via Bitcoin and this drove the price
up. Now that dike has been repaired by the communists. The price didn't go
to zero, but returned to the curve where you would expect it to be at this
point. The fact that they had this correction shows the baseline health of
Bitcoin, not the opposite.

Some day, as more and more online transactions are done with Bitcoin, the
volatility will go down as the need for and use of Bitcoin becomes more
diversified. Imagine the volatility of dollars if the ONLY thing you could
really buy with it in volume was oil. Or any one commodity. That's the way
Bitcoin is portrayed in the media, and the way it IS to some extent. It
isn't fungible enough in enough places yet.

As to the idea that it can't function as a currency until the volatility is
down, which was in a recent The Atlantic article, the volatility will go
down as the use diversifies and the Bitcoin economy grows. Small things are
generally more volatile than large.

True, if countries outlaw its use in places like Walmart, it won't have as
big an economic impact as it could otherwise have, but I think it will have
great use online and possibly in third world nations where bad banking laws
keep people from doing the simplest things.


> WRT to other comments in this thread: South Africa? No one in their right
> mind is going to emigrate to South Africa, regardless of it's free market
> policies.
>

Few will. But it isn't zero even now. I would choose Singapore or Brazil if
I absolutely had to go somewhere, but that's just me.

-Kelly

*(BTW, we had a rather significant house fire and smoke damage yesterday,
lots of excitement, three fire trucks and an ambulance at 5 AM, but all is
well now. One room in the basement apartment is totally trashed, but my
girlfriend's daughter saved the day and woke us up before anything too bad
happened. Not one smoke alarm in the whole house went off, there should
have been 5 at least. Check your smoke alarms, you may not have a 12 year
old.)
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131219/5e5c1af5/attachment.html>

From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Dec 19 15:45:20 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2013 10:45:20 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Dollar mining
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFhCebuk6z+DE0TX8GLL4iKihFPavK84BOZGoo0cPkcV4Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFhCebuk6z+DE0TX8GLL4iKihFPavK84BOZGoo0cPkcV4Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0=OZAUyOP0po-gpNG0rhrJsgv_ga4-ABLZRX0KRmkEow@mail.gmail.com>

I somehow missed this post until now.

On Mon, Dec 2, 2013 at 12:55 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:

>> I am saying that prices, which is what you're so worried about, is equal
>> to the money supply which is all you want to talk about, TIMES  the
>> velocity of money which you don't want to talk about because it is the
>> product of about a zillion independent factors, DIVIDED  by the quantity of
>> things produced which you also don't want to talk about because it is the
>> product of a bazillion QUITE different independent factors. MV=PQ may be
>> true but is useless in predicting what P will be next year if you don't
>> know what V or Q will be next year. It's as useless as the Drake equation
>> is in figuring out
>> if ET exists because we don't know what values to stick into the equation.
>>
>
>
> So you are backpedaling a bit, previously you claimed that recent lack of
> large scale inflation in the US is proof that money supply is not the
> driving factor in inflation.


I remain firm in my assertion that the current large scale inflation in the
USA is NOT caused by the money supply. The reason I can be so absolutely
dogmatic on this point is that currently there is no large scale inflation
in the USA.

> Now, of course the equation of exchange is much more useful than the
> Drake equation,


And that is why economists always agree among themselves and have such a
glorious history of accurate predictions. Oh waite...

> since M, V and Q can be estimated


Guessed at you mean.

> relative price stability in the US despite increased M means that V, Q or
> both have changed to partially offset increased M.


Obviously.

> The question is, what happened?
>

What happened is that for whatever reason V or Q or both moved in the
opposite direction from M, and it means that if the printing presses hadn't
gone into overdrive and M hadn't increased then P would have dropped like a
rock and we'd see 1930's style deflation today.

> My guess is that the main factor is foreign, predominantly Chinese,
> demand for dollar-denominated securities and real estate.


I suppose that's as good (or bad) a theory as any other. But theories are a
dime a dozen, and economists love to guess and they're always certain, but
being certain is easy, being correct is not. At any rate it doesn't matter
why inflation is so very low because the fact remains that it is and thus
it must be dealt with. If a patient has dangerously low blood pressure a
doctor shouldn't prescribe medication that would lower it even more even if
he doesn't understand why it was so low in the first place.

  John K Clark
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131219/795a457c/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Thu Dec 19 15:47:08 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2013 16:47:08 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Genetic testing of pregnancy
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiy5G0p_vUaurPGLAqV=zXXYMdDcwi78vbB7wYt7HRZXg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiy5G0p_vUaurPGLAqV=zXXYMdDcwi78vbB7wYt7HRZXg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52B314FC.6010308@aleph.se>

Incidentally, it would be fun to use in the cases of virgin birth:
http://www.bmj.com/content/347/bmj.f7102
> *Conclusions*Around 0.5% of women consistently affirmed their status 
> as virgins and did not use assisted reproductive technology, yet 
> reported virgin births. Even with numerous enhancements and safeguards 
> to optimize reporting accuracy, researchers may still face challenges 
> in the collection and analysis of self reported data on potentially 
> sensitive topics.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131219/32a55be7/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Thu Dec 19 16:37:06 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2013 08:37:06 -0800
Subject: [ExI] teaching of math and science,
	was:  RE:  discovery of irrational numbers
Message-ID: <028801cefcd8$8e746010$ab5d2030$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
...
>
>>... Oy, good point.  My son is reacting much like scientists do when we 
> keep finding out there isn't really a simple consistent underlying 
> principle, or if so, we still don't know it.

>...Well, you could reassure you that mathematicians are on top of the game.

We do understand irrationals, transcendentals and uncomputable numbers
fairly well... Anders Sandberg

Anders here's an idea, on which I invite your comment.  Since you have met
my son recently, your outlook on this will be most valuable.

The education theorists are reworking the curriculum in the US, with a
program called Common Core.  I will reserve my commentary on that for now,
and get to a special narrow focus in which I have taken interest.

One of the biggest problems we have had in education for a long time is that
it is highly dependent on a very old model of gathering children grouped by
age, then teaching them with one adult up front talking to 30 or so kids.
The problem with that is one most of us know very well: they need to shoot
for the plus or minus one sigma mean.  If you are outside that band, and
plenty of us here are way outside that group, then the traditional model of
education does little to help us, and in many ways harms us.

OK then, one aspect of Common Core is a claim that it is more effective in
reaching those outside a sigma from the mean.

I don't want to go further into that right at the moment, but will respond
if others have comments on the above.  What I really want to get to in this
thread is that we have enormous potential right in front of our eyes to help
the 3 sigma and above students once we recognize a critically important
aspect of brain development: if we stay right on the leading edge of a
student's ability to learn, being right there with the new concepts right as
the brain's synaptic development is ready to comprehend it, a
high-performing student can progress at an astonishing rate.

For instance, one of the ideas I had was a novel way to introduce the notion
of imaginary numbers.  I have long objected to that name, real and
imaginary.  It makes it sound too much like imaginary numbers are just a
plaything or don't have any basis in reality.  That name imaginary was an
unfortunate choice.  Imaginary numbers are real!

So here's my idea.  When I introduce the concept, instead of calling them
imaginary numbers, I call them vertical numbers.  I show my son the complex
plane (oy, complex numbers, another bad choice of names) then show him that
all the numbers he has worked with so far are horizontal numbers, and
everything which contains square root of negative 1 are vertical numbers.
All numbers which have both are ambi numbers, or ambinums.  You can't count
with vertical numbers or ambinums, but there are plenty of reasons we need
them and use them.  Then after he gets comfortable with vertical numbers and
ambinums, then I introduce the standard terminology and attempt an
explanation for why they have those names.

One way or the other, I hope I can convey the stunning sense of wonder I
felt when I first learned of Euler's equation, the one that still blows my
mind to this day.

Khan Academy has a really good short lecture on this topic.

Anders, have you any ideas on how to use our current info tech to help the 3
sigmas?

spike




From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Dec 19 17:12:29 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2013 17:12:29 +0000
Subject: [ExI] teaching of math and science,
 was: RE: discovery of irrational numbers
In-Reply-To: <028801cefcd8$8e746010$ab5d2030$@att.net>
References: <028801cefcd8$8e746010$ab5d2030$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armiQF0LGOdvu0pFJGVt88w4QUFDYWBrfTO2Kp9bJzdMFdQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Dec 19, 2013 at 4:37 PM, spike wrote:
<snip>
> Anders, have you any ideas on how to use our current info tech to help the 3
> sigmas?
>
>

No need to reinvent the wheel. There are hundreds of gifted children
groups around. Get in touch with your local groups and join internet
lists and chat groups.


BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Thu Dec 19 19:01:00 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2013 11:01:00 -0800
Subject: [ExI] data are lost to science at 'astonishing rate'
Message-ID: <034b01cefcec$a921d050$fb6570f0$@att.net>




Tomasz, I posted this article over to Exi because it is an important topic
with another branch.  I mentioned in this forum about some family research I
had done about 24 yrs ago, information found in a paper book.  I didn't copy
the book at the time or even write down where I found the info, but it
turned out to be a critical link in a chain that otherwise could never have
been joined.  My point is that as science loses data at an appalling rate,
history loses data even more quickly.  The libraries of Alexandria are
burning furiously to this day, with far more fuel than in 642 AD.

spike



-----Original Message-----
From: tt-bounces at postbiota.org [mailto:tt-bounces at postbiota.org] On Behalf
Of Tomasz Rola
Sent: Thursday, December 19, 2013 10:53 AM
To: Transhuman Tech
Cc: Tomasz Rola
Subject: [tt] (phys.org) Data are lost to science at 'astonishing rate'


[

http://phys.org/print306679504.html

]


   #[1]top   [2]search   [3]All   news  stories  [4]Spotlight  news  only
   [5]Feature stories [6]Customize feed [7]publisher

   [8][logo.png] 

Data are lost to science at 'astonishing rate'

   December 19th, 2013 in Other Sciences / Other

   New  evidence  reported  in the journal Current Biology on December 19
   confirms  long-held  fears  about the fate of scientific data. Careful
   evaluation  of  more than 500 randomly selected studies found that the
   original  data behind those published papers have been lost to science
   at a rapid rate.

   Two  years after publication, data are essentially always available to
   other  researchers  who  might  wish  to  confirm  the  findings,  the
   researchers  found.  By  20  years  post-publication, 80% of that data
   obtained  through  publicly  funded  research  is  inaccessible due to
   mundane  issues,  primarily  old  email addresses and obsolete storage
   devices.  The  researchers  call  on  journals to require that authors
   share their data on a public archive before a paper can be published.

   "I  think  nobody  expects  that  you'd  be  able  to  get data from a
   fifty-year-old  paper,  but  to find that almost all the data sets are
   gone  at  twenty years was a bit of a surprise," says Timothy Vines of
   the University of British Columbia.

   "Publicly  funded  science  generates  an extraordinary amount of data
   each  year. Much of these data are unique to a time and place, and are
   thus  irreplaceable,  and  many  other  data  sets  are  expensive  to
   regenerate," he adds. "The current system of leaving data with authors
   means  that  almost  all  of  it  is lost over time. The data are thus
   unavailable  for  future  researchers  to check old results or use for
   entirely  new  purposes. Losing data is a waste of research funds, and
   it limits how we can do science."

   Vines  and  his colleagues came to this conclusion by examining papers
   reporting  a  very specific and relatively simple type of data: length
   measurements of plants and animals. Those papers were selected because
   length  measurements  have  been collected in exactly the same way for
   decades,  making  straightforward comparisons over time much easier to
   do.

   The analysis found that the odds of obtaining an original data set for
   any one of those papers fell by 17% every year. In Vines's estimation,
   journals  are  the  only party with sufficient leverage to ensure that
   the data underlying published studies will get shared.

   "Scientific  data are being lost at an astonishing rate, and concerted
   action--particularly  by  journals--is needed to make sure it is saved
   for future researchers," Vines says.

   More  information: Current Biology, Vines et al.: "The availability of
   research     data     declines     rapidly    with    article    age."
   [9]dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2013.11.014

   Provided by Cell Press

   "Data are lost to science at 'astonishing rate'." December 19th, 2013.
   [10]http://phys.org/news/2013-12-lost-science-astonishing.html

References

   1. http://phys.org/
   2. http://phys.org/search/
   3. http://phys.org/rss-feed/
   4. http://phys.org/rss-feed/breaking/
   5. http://phys.org/rss-feed/editorials/
   6. http://phys.org/feeds/
   7. https://plus.google.com/116557644723047703916/
   8. http://phys.org/
   9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2013.11.014
  10. http://phys.org/news/2013-12-lost-science-astonishing.html
_______________________________________________
tt mailing list
tt at postbiota.org
http://postbiota.org/mailman/listinfo/tt



From stathisp at gmail.com  Fri Dec 20 01:16:50 2013
From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou)
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2013 12:16:50 +1100
Subject: [ExI] Ageing
Message-ID: <CAH=2ypUs2b-Jv6YJrNA3y9OO4eQnZBxAU+uvxdvaV6cT4BWJ2w@mail.gmail.com>

http://www.theage.com.au/technology/sci-tech/scientists-find-way-to-make-ageing-clock-stop-ticking-20131220-2zohf.html

-- 
Stathis Papaioannou


From spike66 at att.net  Fri Dec 20 05:59:52 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2013 21:59:52 -0800
Subject: [ExI] confused trees and bees,
	FW: Season's Greetings from the Federation
Message-ID: <007501cefd48$b3cf4120$1b6dc360$@att.net>

 

 <https://twitter.com/GeorgeTakei> George TakeiVerified account
?@GeorgeTakei 

Well spocken. pic.twitter.com/kZmJt6iaeA <http://t.co/kZmJt6iaeA> 

 <https://twitter.com/GeorgeTakei/status/412714670496419841/photo/1/large> 

 <https://twitter.com/GeorgeTakei/status/412714670496419841/photo/1/large>
Embedded image permalink

 

 

2013 was a terrible year for bees.  Perhaps 2014 will be better.  On the
first day of this year I saw hundreds of dead and dying bees, apparently
having failed to find their hive and perishing from exposure.  I saw more
dead and dying bees on the sidewalk this year than all six previous years
combined, not including that 1 January event.  Estimated total about 100.

 

Now my observation is the blossoms are coming earlier this year than I
recall ever seeing them open, and the bees are here as well.  In my back
yard I see the vines have blossoms already.  The solstice is Saturday
afternoon, so this is a case where spring has arrived before the autumn
officially ends.  I noticed there are more confused trees this year than
just my citrus trees in back.  I see evidence of early blooming and new
growth everywhere.  With current indications, there will be a riot of color
in January.

 

We tend to notice when bees decline, but would we notice if other bugs went
missing?  My ants are gone without a trace.  If some bug virus decimated the
ants, how would we know it had happened?  Perhaps I could talk the local
hardware store out of some information on sales of ant poison and boric
acid.

 

spike

 

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131219/69912cd0/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Untitled attachment 00019.png
Type: image/png
Size: 7190 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131219/69912cd0/attachment.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Untitled attachment 00022.png
Type: image/png
Size: 510 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131219/69912cd0/attachment-0001.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.jpg
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 24464 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131219/69912cd0/attachment.obj>

From anders at aleph.se  Fri Dec 20 08:21:09 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2013 09:21:09 +0100
Subject: [ExI] data are lost to science at 'astonishing rate'
In-Reply-To: <034b01cefcec$a921d050$fb6570f0$@att.net>
References: <034b01cefcec$a921d050$fb6570f0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <52B3FDF5.4070108@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-19 20:01, spike wrote:
>
> My point is that as science loses data at an appalling rate,
> history loses data even more quickly.  The libraries of Alexandria are
> burning furiously to this day, with far more fuel than in 642 AD.

However, cheap copying also makes things far more resilient. If you have 
N copies of something and probability p of something surviving, you 
should expect Np surviving copies, and only (1-p)^N probability of them 
all getting wiped out. This means that on average, we should expect the 
future to have access to Justin Bieber and 50 Shades of Grey. But also 
copies of Nature (N=53,000).

The real problem is when there are few copies, like for scientific data. 
I scared a representative of one of the big brain projects by asking 
what they will do with their giant database after the end of the 
project. The Millennium N-body simulation has AFAIK already been deleted.

Centralization may also be a problem: for all purposes ScienceDirect is 
one copy, even if it runs on the cloud. Were the company to fold it 
might suck down all its scientific papers. Sure, individual scientists 
likely have their manuscripts and they might exist in email backups, but 
reconstructing them would be tough - especially as the Vines paper 
pointed out that even finding researchers after a few years is tricky.




-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Dec 20 11:23:25 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2013 11:23:25 +0000
Subject: [ExI] data are lost to science at 'astonishing rate'
In-Reply-To: <034b01cefcec$a921d050$fb6570f0$@att.net>
References: <034b01cefcec$a921d050$fb6570f0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhVSR26ggpeY1861xmADWUEtKV9wmLrdXYBjXYWSkOD7g@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Dec 19, 2013 at 7:01 PM, spike  wrote:
> My point is that as science loses data at an appalling rate,
> history loses data even more quickly.  The libraries of Alexandria are
> burning furiously to this day, with far more fuel than in 642 AD.
>
>

I think that we shouldn't make the simple assumption that the
intention is always to keep *all* data. Or even keep it without
changes.

There are political examples of politicians removing all trace of
disliked predecessors from their recorded history. Famous photographs
with people removed, etc. We notice some of them now, but will future
researchers?

Similarly scientific research can be ignored if it is not approved.
Not all by deliberate removal, though that has occurred. e.g. Lysenko,
Rascher,  Mengele, Tesla?, etc.

Sometimes scientists remove files themselves, when early research
reflects badly on their present career. Everybody has embarrassing
episodes in their life that they would prefer were forgotten.

With the terabytes of data that are now being created, we need some
kind of curating system where only 'important' data is retained.
Though that decision is tricky as re-analysis of old data can bring
new surprises.


BillK


From sparge at gmail.com  Fri Dec 20 14:37:39 2013
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2013 09:37:39 -0500
Subject: [ExI] confused trees and bees,
	FW: Season's Greetings from the Federation
In-Reply-To: <007501cefd48$b3cf4120$1b6dc360$@att.net>
References: <007501cefd48$b3cf4120$1b6dc360$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2d=LJqaF14nZUvgAq0C802rFFR3fyEGVPWcOFPaSDn5Bw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Dec 20, 2013 at 12:59 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
> We tend to notice when bees decline, but would we notice if other bugs
> went missing?  My ants are gone without a trace.  If some bug virus
> decimated the ants, how would we know it had happened?  Perhaps I could
> talk the local hardware store out of some information on sales of ant
> poison and boric acid.
>

Spike, you should consider contributing to the National Phenology Network, <
https://www.usanpn.org/>.
USA National Phenology Network

*What we do:* The USA-NPN developed *Nature's
Notebook*<https://www.usanpn.org/natures_notebook>,
a project focused on collecting standardized ground observations of
phenology by researchers, students and volunteers. We also foster phenology
communities of practice, and the development of tools and techniques to
support a wide range of decisions made routinely by citizens, managers,
scientists, and others, including decisions related to allergies,
wildfires, water, and conservation.

*Our mission:* The USA National Phenology Network serves science and
society by promoting broad understanding of plant and animal phenology and
its relationship with environmental change.  The Network is a consortium of
individuals and organizations that collect, share, and use phenology data,
models, and related information.

*Our vision:* The USA National Phenology Network encourages people of all
ages and backgrounds to observe and record phenology as a way to discover
and explore the nature and pace of our dynamic world. The Network makes
phenology data, models, and related information freely available to empower
scientists, resource managers, and the public in decision-making and
adapting to variable and changing climates and environments.

*How we're organized:* The efforts of the USA-NPN are organized and
directed by the staff of the National Coordinating
Office<https://www.usanpn.org/about/staff>and the 15-member Advisory
Committee <https://www.usanpn.org/about/advisory-committee>, as specified
in our Charter<http://www.usanpn.org/files/shared/files/Charter_ByLaws_8-15-11.pdf>.
The activities of the USA-NPN are funded by several organizations,
including the U.S. Geological Survey, National Park Service, The University
of Arizona and the National Science Foundation.
-Dave
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131220/25998281/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Fri Dec 20 15:58:33 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2013 07:58:33 -0800
Subject: [ExI] teaching of math and science
Message-ID: <00e201cefd9c$567fe1b0$037fa510$@att.net>



BillK, thanks, this is a resource that might be useful to most people here,
so I forwarded it on to the main list (I didn't see anything in there I
thought you would object to having the world see.)  I looked over the page,
and ja, it has some good stuff on there.  Well done, lad! 

spike



-----Original Message-----
From: BillK [mailto:pharos at gmail.com] 
Sent: Friday, December 20, 2013 2:47 AM
To: spike
Subject: Re: [ExI] teaching of math and science

On Thu, Dec 19, 2013 at 4:37 PM, spike wrote:
> Anders, have you any ideas on how to use our current info tech to help 
> the 3 sigmas?

Hi Spike

Just found this website listing free educational material for all subjects.
Looks to be very comprehensive.

This is the kids selection:

<http://www.openculture.com/free_k-12_educational_resources>

Page down for the maths list.

Cheers, BillK



From spike66 at att.net  Fri Dec 20 16:36:16 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2013 08:36:16 -0800
Subject: [ExI] data are lost to science at 'astonishing rate'
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhVSR26ggpeY1861xmADWUEtKV9wmLrdXYBjXYWSkOD7g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <034b01cefcec$a921d050$fb6570f0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhVSR26ggpeY1861xmADWUEtKV9wmLrdXYBjXYWSkOD7g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00e301cefda1$9b2135d0$d163a170$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
...

>...Sometimes scientists remove files themselves, when early research
reflects badly on their present career. Everybody has embarrassing episodes
in their life that they would prefer were forgotten.

BillK
_______________________________________________

Good point Billk, but isn't just that.  There is stuff I put in the ExI
archives which would be better if removed.  I don't know if he will, but
someday my son or his offspring might go back and read all that junk.  Then
they would think, Oy vey my grandfather was a whackmeister.  Sometimes he
was anyway.  Funny sorta, if you like that kind of humor.  Sounds like he
was having fun inside that weird head.

spike



From anders at aleph.se  Fri Dec 20 16:52:22 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2013 17:52:22 +0100
Subject: [ExI] teaching of math and science,
 was:  RE:  discovery of irrational numbers
In-Reply-To: <028801cefcd8$8e746010$ab5d2030$@att.net>
References: <028801cefcd8$8e746010$ab5d2030$@att.net>
Message-ID: <52B475C6.2040607@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-19 17:37, spike wrote:
> Anders here's an idea, on which I invite your comment.  Since you have met
> my son recently, your outlook on this will be most valuable.
...
> if we stay right on the leading edge of a
> student's ability to learn, being right there with the new concepts right as
> the brain's synaptic development is ready to comprehend it, a
> high-performing student can progress at an astonishing rate.

Yes. One useful trick is to introduce a new domain, let the student play 
around for a short while with the things in it (vectors, electrical 
components, word classes, Roman emperors) to get a sense of what can be 
done inside the domain, and then the instructor gives useful information 
about how to solve problems or figure out things in the domain. Too 
little toying around and the student will just parrot, too much toying 
around and they will have to rediscover stuff that took bright people a 
few centuries. Too much instruction and the creativity is gone. 
Balancing these factors are the skill of a true educator.


> For instance, one of the ideas I had was a novel way to introduce the notion
> of imaginary numbers.  I have long objected to that name, real and
> imaginary.  It makes it sound too much like imaginary numbers are just a
> plaything or don't have any basis in reality.  That name imaginary was an
> unfortunate choice.  Imaginary numbers are real!
>
> So here's my idea.  When I introduce the concept, instead of calling them
> imaginary numbers, I call them vertical numbers.  I show my son the complex
> plane (oy, complex numbers, another bad choice of names) then show him that
> all the numbers he has worked with so far are horizontal numbers, and
> everything which contains square root of negative 1 are vertical numbers.
> All numbers which have both are ambi numbers, or ambinums.  You can't count
> with vertical numbers or ambinums, but there are plenty of reasons we need
> them and use them.  Then after he gets comfortable with vertical numbers and
> ambinums, then I introduce the standard terminology and attempt an
> explanation for why they have those names.

I wonder if vectors might be even better as a start. Explain that 
composite numbers are really useful, show how they can be added and 
subtracted, including multiplied by normal numbers to make them longer 
or shorter. And these things are easy to represent as ambi numbers.

Then you can start discussing what the "right" way of multiplying them 
are. Maybe show that component-wise multiplication is pretty pointless, 
that the dot product is neat but not really like normal multiplication - 
you want to get something that is the same type of thing as the two 
things you multiply. The cross product is kind of the right thing, but 
there is no "one" that leaves cross products invariant. Meanwhile, if 
one defines multiplication in the complex way one gets neat things in 2D 
at least - easy ways of doing rotations, and an explanation of the 
square root of -1.

At this point vectors and complex numbers come apart, and it is a good 
point for explaining that different mathematical structures (algebras) 
are good for different things. Vectors are great for space, electricity, 
force and similar stuff. Complex numbers complete the usual numbers in 
lovely ways.

When he asks about 3D complex number you will have succeeded. But 
explaining why there is no division algebra in 3D but one in 4D is a bit 
trickier...

> Anders, have you any ideas on how to use our current info tech to help the 3
> sigmas?

Look for systems like Minecraft, Celestia or interactive physics 
programs that let you set up your own objects and contraptions and then 
let them loose. Sometimes suggest challenges to make.



-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From spike66 at att.net  Fri Dec 20 16:59:13 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2013 08:59:13 -0800
Subject: [ExI] confused trees and bees,
	FW: Season's Greetings from the Federation
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2d=LJqaF14nZUvgAq0C802rFFR3fyEGVPWcOFPaSDn5Bw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <007501cefd48$b3cf4120$1b6dc360$@att.net>
 <CAM5aL2d=LJqaF14nZUvgAq0C802rFFR3fyEGVPWcOFPaSDn5Bw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00f101cefda4$d04faef0$70ef0cd0$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of Dave Sill
Subject: Re: [ExI] confused trees and bees, FW: Season's Greetings from the
Federation

 

On Fri, Dec 20, 2013 at 12:59 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>>.We tend to notice when bees decline, but would we notice if other bugs
went missing?  My ants are gone without a trace.  If some bug virus
decimated the ants, how would we know it had happened?  Perhaps I could talk
the local hardware store out of some information on sales of ant poison and
boric acid.

 

>.Spike, you should consider contributing to the National Phenology Network,
<https://www.usanpn.org/>.




>.USA National Phenology Network


>.What we do: The USA-NPN developed
<https://www.usanpn.org/natures_notebook> Nature's Notebook, a project
focused on collecting standardized ground observations of phenology by
researchers, students and volunteers.-Dave

Thanks Dave!

There is another factor in play here.  My house had always had ants,
outside, inside, everywhere except the kitchen of all odd things.  The ants
never really did go after the stored food, or seldom did.  I kept them under
control using boric acid and the usual local hardware store remedies, but it
was imperfect, even though I used to spend over a hundred bucks a year on
ant control.  I had ants nest in an electrical outlet in one of the
bedrooms.  They were in the closets, in the bathrooms, everywhere except the
kitchen where I use a lot of windex.  They would go outdoors to gather food,
then come in to sleep or whatever ants do at night.  I had ants in my citrus
trees, used to do experiments with them and so forth.

About four years ago, my neighbor came over, said he had met a guy who
claimed he could rid the house of ants (my neighbor had an even bigger ant
problem than mine) but we had to pay him cash and couldn't ask any
questions, Jose would take care of the problem.  I refused, assuming he
might use something dangerous, but reconsidered when my neighbor said he
would not need to come indoors at all.  I thought it over and forked over
the fifty bucks in cash.  I didn't see what that man did.  He showed up in a
beat up white pickup, no advertising on it at all, he was here for about 15
minutes I think, did both houses, did everything outdoors only.  The ants
have never been back since.  I assumed he was an illegal Mexican guy with
chlordane, but I used chlordane back when people had stockpiles of it left
over from the 1970s.  I might be mistaken, but I don't recall that stuff
lasting for four years.  The ants never recovered from whatever it was he
sprayed.  I haven't bought ant control stuff since, and still have some left
over, unused.

>From the citizen scientist point of view, that observation is important, but
lacks detail.  I might be able to get a soil chemical analysis of some sort,
if I know approximately what I am looking for and can design my own
qualitative analysis.

The extermination biz here in the states keeps plenty of proles in jobs, for
a number of homeowners have them come in on a regular basis, and they do
spray stuff indoors.  All this time, there is some guy named Jose who can
solve the problem for apparently years at a time, staying outdoors, all for
fifty bucks and some mystery chemical.  Oy.

spike

 

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131220/89ce37cf/attachment.html>

From bkdelong at pobox.com  Fri Dec 20 17:23:45 2013
From: bkdelong at pobox.com (Ben (B.K.) DeLong)
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2013 12:23:45 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Movie teasers for "Transcendence" aka the Singularity
Message-ID: <CAKQs6YoYCXsB7KmvTTn07xUHLq2VAng4AXwnkcBgB+GxF9zn8w@mail.gmail.com>

http://io9.com/johnny-depp-gets-crazy-creepy-in-the-first-teaser-for-t-1486636229

Thoughts?

-- 
Ben DeLong (K3GRN)
bkdelong at pobox.com
+1.617.797.8471

https://www.linkedin.com/in/bkdelong    CV

GPG Key Fingerprint: 5EEF0ABDACDD937AD08F4AF0E42DFD9081DE7CB
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131220/380f5c34/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Fri Dec 20 21:39:16 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2013 13:39:16 -0800
Subject: [ExI] nasa's valkyrie
Message-ID: <023201cefdcb$ef6560b0$ce302210$@att.net>

 

When I read this article it puzzled me that NASA would want a humanoid robot
for the purpose of preparing a habitat for humans.  None of the robots that
have been there or are there now are humanoid.  I don't see why you would
pay all the engineering compromises for human-form for this application:

 

http://singularityhub.com/2013/12/20/nasa-unveils-valkyrie-a-humanoid-robot-
destined-for-space-exploration/

 

Then it occurred to me: it was a way to get NASA to pay for something that
has applications up the kazoo on this planet.

 

spike

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131220/94fd97a2/attachment.html>

From ablainey at aol.com  Sun Dec 22 02:03:05 2013
From: ablainey at aol.com (Alex Blainey)
Date: Sat, 21 Dec 2013 21:03:05 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [ExI]  Earth hoola hoop generator/transport ?
In-Reply-To: <023201cefdcb$ef6560b0$ce302210$@att.net>
References: <023201cefdcb$ef6560b0$ce302210$@att.net>
Message-ID: <8D0CCD1163464E6-804-34910@webmail-d259.sysops.aol.com>


 

 I had a crazy idea while designing an integrated solar panel roof system the other day. What if we make a maglev track around the equator, build a big solid continuous train on it like a hoola hoop around the world.
Would it start to rotate with no driving force other than Earths rotation? Effectivley it would actually be standing still and the planet continuing to do what it does and rotating underneath it.
We could put it in a vacuum tube to remove friction. Im assuming it would be levitating using halbach arrays which opposes coils in the track, so no friction there. Just the massive enertia of the thing.

If it did move, what speed would it get to? In theory somewhere round the 1000mph mark which seems like a reasonable transport speed to me. Even with losses of 25% for magnetic cogging, eddy currents, unseen forces it would still be faster than a passenger jet.

So what if we also used it to generate electricity? No reason why we can't use it as the rotor in an earth sized generator?
Do we have the resources for such a thing?

Then it got really wierd. What would happen to such a stationary (non rotating from a helio centric point of view) object? I personally believe that Earths orbit around the sun is partly a reaction to teh gravitational pull from the sun. In a "force felt on a rotating body is felt at 90 degrees" kind of way. If so, would the thing actually rotate under the force of gravity?

I have neither the time or maths for such thought experiments at this time of year (or any other come to think of it), Christmas is coming and I have crap to wrap!
just musing. :oD
A


 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131221/be236acb/attachment.html>

From ablainey at aol.com  Sun Dec 22 02:35:24 2013
From: ablainey at aol.com (Alex Blainey)
Date: Sat, 21 Dec 2013 21:35:24 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [ExI] confused trees and bees,
 FW: Season's Greetings from the Federation
In-Reply-To: <007501cefd48$b3cf4120$1b6dc360$@att.net>
References: <007501cefd48$b3cf4120$1b6dc360$@att.net>
Message-ID: <8D0CCD598F59F3D-804-34A74@webmail-d259.sysops.aol.com>

Ah the annual Bee update. Ive noticed a decline this year in the UK but havn't seen a rise in dead Bees. What I have also noticed recently and this worried me was when working in the woods clearing a couple of paths there was a very noticable lack of insect life in and under the leaf litter. !!!!!
In one area I raked away about an inch of leaves uncovering the peat/earth from a patch roughly 20 sq ft and then looked for insects. No woodlice, millipedes or even springtails. All I saw was one lonely small spider.

Now that is truly worrying. Nothing of note has changed in the local environment apart from a really wet year and the Oak trees have dropped more acorns than I have ever seen! 

 

 

 

-----Original Message-----
From: spike <spike66 at att.net>
To: 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Sent: Fri, 20 Dec 2013 6:18
Subject: [ExI] confused trees and bees, FW: Season's Greetings from the Federation



 

George TakeiVerified account ?@GeorgeTakei 

Well spocken. pic.twitter.com/kZmJt6iaeA




 

 
2013 was a terrible year for bees.  Perhaps 2014 will be better.  On the first day of this year I saw hundreds of dead and dying bees, apparently having failed to find their hive and perishing from exposure.  I saw more dead and dying bees on the sidewalk this year than all six previous years combined, not including that 1 January event.  Estimated total about 100.
 
Now my observation is the blossoms are coming earlier this year than I recall ever seeing them open, and the bees are here as well.  In my back yard I see the vines have blossoms already.  The solstice is Saturday afternoon, so this is a case where spring has arrived before the autumn officially ends.  I noticed there are more confused trees this year than just my citrus trees in back.  I see evidence of early blooming and new growth everywhere.  With current indications, there will be a riot of color in January.
 
We tend to notice when bees decline, but would we notice if other bugs went missing?  My ants are gone without a trace.  If some bug virus decimated the ants, how would we know it had happened?  Perhaps I could talk the local hardware store out of some information on sales of ant poison and boric acid.
 
spike
 
 


_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131221/f76acb74/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Untitled attachment 00019.png
Type: image/png
Size: 7190 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131221/f76acb74/attachment.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Untitled attachment 00022.png
Type: image/png
Size: 510 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131221/f76acb74/attachment-0001.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.jpg
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 24464 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131221/f76acb74/attachment.obj>

From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Dec 22 16:05:14 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 22 Dec 2013 11:05:14 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Movie teasers for "Transcendence" aka the Singularity
In-Reply-To: <CAKQs6YoYCXsB7KmvTTn07xUHLq2VAng4AXwnkcBgB+GxF9zn8w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAKQs6YoYCXsB7KmvTTn07xUHLq2VAng4AXwnkcBgB+GxF9zn8w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2XGp60JWaBqP4mkFik7bW8t6XBzcHyfrRN6quj7aDYEQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Dec 20, 2013 at 12:23 PM, Ben (B.K.) DeLong <bkdelong at pobox.com>wrote:

http://io9.com/johnny-depp-gets-crazy-creepy-in-the-first-teaser-for-t-1486636229
>

That is a excellent trailer, it's really good, although sometimes the
trailer is much better than the movie. I just hope that in that penultimate
scene the Jupiter Brain is not defeated by means of a martial arts style
fistfight or by a car chase, and then in the last scene have the mad
scientist walk into the sunset with his girlfriend after at last seeing the
evil of his ways and discovering his inner humanity.

  John K Clark
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131222/0b89a3cd/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Sun Dec 22 17:27:10 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 22 Dec 2013 09:27:10 -0800
Subject: [ExI] nasa robot
Message-ID: <035001ceff3b$0c728c30$2557a490$@att.net>

 

Posted forward for Alan Brooks:

 

>."Then it occurred to me: it was a way to get NASA to pay for something
that has applications up the kazoo on this planet."  spike

 

Valkerie as in possible future military applications for eradicating and
incarcerating selected human targets?

 

[Spike, please post ths for Newtonmas Season?] 

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131222/b0d5c44f/attachment.html>

From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Dec 22 18:19:19 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 22 Dec 2013 18:19:19 +0000
Subject: [ExI] nasa robot
In-Reply-To: <035001ceff3b$0c728c30$2557a490$@att.net>
References: <035001ceff3b$0c728c30$2557a490$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armizNmS16uj3xT1sbyW_K2gsOZupn3HCCUF-kw7YJ6KK0Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Dec 22, 2013 at 5:27 PM, spike wrote:
>
> Posted forward for Alan Brooks:
> Valkerie as in possible future military applications for eradicating and
> incarcerating selected human targets?
>


Results just announced. NASA-JSC Valkyrie was joint *worst* competitor.

<http://www.theroboticschallenge.org/>

BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Sun Dec 22 18:11:31 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 22 Dec 2013 10:11:31 -0800
Subject: [ExI] confused trees and bees,
	FW: Season's Greetings from the Federation
In-Reply-To: <8D0CCD598F59F3D-804-34A74@webmail-d259.sysops.aol.com>
References: <007501cefd48$b3cf4120$1b6dc360$@att.net>
 <8D0CCD598F59F3D-804-34A74@webmail-d259.sysops.aol.com>
Message-ID: <038601ceff41$3e65f730$bb31e590$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Alex Blainey
Sent: Saturday, December 21, 2013 6:35 PM
To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
Subject: Re: [ExI] confused trees and bees, FW: Season's Greetings from the Federation

 

>?Ah the annual Bee update. Ive noticed a decline this year in the UK but havn't seen a rise in dead Bees. What I have also noticed recently and this worried me was when working in the woods clearing a couple of paths there was a very noticable lack of insect life in and under the leaf litter. !!!!!
In one area I raked away about an inch of leaves uncovering the peat/earth from a patch roughly 20 sq ft and then looked for insects. No woodlice, millipedes or even springtails. All I saw was one lonely small spider.

>?Now that is truly worrying. Nothing of note has changed in the local environment apart from a really wet year and the Oak trees have dropped more acorns than I have ever seen! 

 

 
 
OK then, all this makes my point exactly.  We have a million pairs of eyes and no good way to integrate observations.  We have people everywhere who casually observe wildlife and may see something important, but we are left with no unified means to collect these kinds of observations.  This has always been the case, but now we have the theoretical ability to make sense of those collective observations.  I don?t know how to do it, but there should be some means of reducing bug counts to locations and hard data by some means.  Over time, important patterns should emerge.
 
Global warming is a topic of great interest in the past decade.  How about some kind of citizen scientist operated home weather station that bluetooths data to your computer which then sends it to some central location?  We could rig something cheap, something Newtonmas-able gift idea, something which would collect air temperature and light-level measurements, or perhaps humidity as well.  Then we get a thousand data points for every one we get now, even if we accept that there are uncontrolled factors influencing the data.
 
It would be so cool to figure out some way to make home security cameras somehow do extra duty as a wildlife observation station.  I use mine that way: I have gotten some spectacular bird photos with it, but no perps so far.  People will buy home security cameras.  We should figure out ways to use these unblinking eyes to do more stuff.
 
But back to the original point, how can we ever notice collectively if things like millipedes, woodlice and roaches went missing?  For the bees it is easy because citrus and nut growers immediately pay a lotta money for them.  With ants we can get data from the local hardware store regarding boric acid sales.  But what if something else killed off the more obscure bugs that almost nobody likes?  Would we notice?
 
spike
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131222/b663b9ca/attachment.html>

From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Dec 22 19:22:13 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sun, 22 Dec 2013 11:22:13 -0800
Subject: [ExI] nasa robot
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armizNmS16uj3xT1sbyW_K2gsOZupn3HCCUF-kw7YJ6KK0Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <035001ceff3b$0c728c30$2557a490$@att.net>
 <CAL_armizNmS16uj3xT1sbyW_K2gsOZupn3HCCUF-kw7YJ6KK0Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNT4BCuLXAJN0FyFncudnX85yQjs_v4R=tsd9D1QOVmBmQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Dec 22, 2013 at 10:19 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sun, Dec 22, 2013 at 5:27 PM, spike wrote:
> > Posted forward for Alan Brooks:
> > Valkerie as in possible future military applications for eradicating and
> > incarcerating selected human targets?
>
> Results just announced. NASA-JSC Valkyrie was joint *worst* competitor.
>
> <http://www.theroboticschallenge.org/>


There doesn't seem to be any materials - writeups, videos, anything -
explaining how they managed to get a perfect 0.  Was it unable to walk over
open ground or something?
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131222/dd2c0e80/attachment.html>

From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Dec 22 19:53:13 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 22 Dec 2013 19:53:13 +0000
Subject: [ExI] nasa robot
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNT4BCuLXAJN0FyFncudnX85yQjs_v4R=tsd9D1QOVmBmQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <035001ceff3b$0c728c30$2557a490$@att.net>
 <CAL_armizNmS16uj3xT1sbyW_K2gsOZupn3HCCUF-kw7YJ6KK0Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNT4BCuLXAJN0FyFncudnX85yQjs_v4R=tsd9D1QOVmBmQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhQAHCAR70gR7OtUF2gAgW6BcRrXD_mTjy54xtxbVX6ig@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Dec 22, 2013 at 7:22 PM, Adrian Tymes  wrote:
> There doesn't seem to be any materials - writeups, videos, anything -
> explaining how they managed to get a perfect 0.  Was it unable to walk over
> open ground or something?
>
>

Too soon. Try again tomorrow.  :)

<http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/humanoids/darpa-robotics-challenge-trials-results>
promise to have more coverage and videos soon.

BillK


From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Dec 22 21:52:28 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 22 Dec 2013 21:52:28 +0000
Subject: [ExI] nasa robot
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhQAHCAR70gR7OtUF2gAgW6BcRrXD_mTjy54xtxbVX6ig@mail.gmail.com>
References: <035001ceff3b$0c728c30$2557a490$@att.net>
 <CAL_armizNmS16uj3xT1sbyW_K2gsOZupn3HCCUF-kw7YJ6KK0Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNT4BCuLXAJN0FyFncudnX85yQjs_v4R=tsd9D1QOVmBmQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhQAHCAR70gR7OtUF2gAgW6BcRrXD_mTjy54xtxbVX6ig@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armh==zj01kAWWWuWGeGrn0dKOurDeGR3znPXTTfvjiShJw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Dec 22, 2013 at 7:53 PM, BillK  wrote:
> <http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/humanoids/darpa-robotics-challenge-trials-results>
> promise to have more coverage and videos soon.
>
>

But don't expect anything exciting.

One spectator of the live feed said it was like watching paint dry.
And another watching a robot take 30 minutes to climb a ladder said it
was like sculpture in motion.

BillK


From max at maxmore.com  Sun Dec 22 23:58:55 2013
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Sun, 22 Dec 2013 16:58:55 -0700
Subject: [ExI] YouTube response to Michio Kaku's uninformed critique of
	cryonics
Message-ID: <CAJX-7wVGGSHcOk=twGYDmDNiK4hZVj4ztf4f5kmwkTw2HOnvdQ@mail.gmail.com>

I haven't watched or read anything else by Prof Kaku, but I hope he is
better informed on other topics.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-tcfWnZgCo


-- 
Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
http://www.amazon.com/Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-Technology-Philosophy/dp/1118334310/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1372225570&sr=1-1&keywords=the+transhumanist+reader
President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131222/42f8ee76/attachment.html>

From ablainey at aol.com  Mon Dec 23 04:31:48 2013
From: ablainey at aol.com (Alex Blainey)
Date: Sun, 22 Dec 2013 23:31:48 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [ExI] confused trees and bees,
 FW: Season's Greetings from the Federation
In-Reply-To: <038601ceff41$3e65f730$bb31e590$@att.net>
References: <007501cefd48$b3cf4120$1b6dc360$@att.net>
 <8D0CCD598F59F3D-804-34A74@webmail-d259.sysops.aol.com>
 <038601ceff41$3e65f730$bb31e590$@att.net>
Message-ID: <8D0CDAF07638003-16D0-363DD@webmail-d135.sysops.aol.com>


 -----Original Message-----
From: spike <spike66 at att.net>
>>OK then, all this makes my point exactly.  We have a million pairs of eyes and no good way to integrate observations.  We have people everywhere who casually observe wildlife and may see something important, but we are left with no unified means to collect these kinds of observations.  This has always been the case, but now we have the theoretical ability to make sense of those collective observations.  I don?t know how to do it, but there should be some means of reducing bug counts to locations and hard data by some means.  Over time, important patterns should emerge.
 
Global warming is a topic of great interest in the past decade.  How about some kind of citizen scientist operated home weather station that bluetooths data to your computer which then sends it to some central location?  We could rig something cheap, something Newtonmas-able gift idea, something which would collect air temperature and light-level measurements, or perhaps humidity as well.  Then we get a thousand data points for every one we get now, even if we accept that there are uncontrolled factors influencing the data.
 
It would be so cool to figure out some way to make home security cameras somehow do extra duty as a wildlife observation station.  I use mine that way: I have gotten some spectacular bird photos with it, but no perps so far.  People will buy home security cameras.  We should figure out ways to use these unblinking eyes to do more stuff.
 
But back to the original point, how can we ever notice collectively if things like millipedes, woodlice and roaches went missing?  For the bees it is easy because citrus and nut growers immediately pay a lotta money for them.  With ants we can get data from the local hardware store regarding boric acid sales.  But what if something else killed off the more obscure bugs that almost nobody likes?  Would we notice?
 
>>>spike
 
 




 Argh AOL formatting strikes again. Apologies.  

Funny you should mention affordable weather stations. Ibelieve (fingers crossed) that my good lady has procured for me just such anitem for Newtonmass. 
The idea of automatic insect monitoring is a problem. Itseems to me we are still employing 18th century naturalistmethodology for invertebrate census taking.
Throw down a square, wave a net, light up a sheet and letthe manual count commence. A pitiful state of affairs.
Where are the bloody Roboroaches with micro sized heroheadcams? Beaming back daily counts and classification of all the creepy crawlies they encounter.We are in the 21st century right? Come on entomologists, its already the future. get with it.

CCTV or webcams may be a valid idea. A half decent lens and good resolution covering the standard 1 metre/yard square patch of ground. Plug in some movement tracking software and an algorithm to distinguish between a fluttering leaf and a bug making a track. Shame the little critter tend to make a point of being hidden.

A
 



 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131222/2db6d6b1/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Mon Dec 23 06:16:10 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 22 Dec 2013 22:16:10 -0800
Subject: [ExI] confused trees and bees,
	FW: Season's Greetings from the Federation
In-Reply-To: <8D0CDAF07638003-16D0-363DD@webmail-d135.sysops.aol.com>
References: <007501cefd48$b3cf4120$1b6dc360$@att.net>
 <8D0CCD598F59F3D-804-34A74@webmail-d259.sysops.aol.com>
 <038601ceff41$3e65f730$bb31e590$@att.net>
 <8D0CDAF07638003-16D0-363DD@webmail-d135.sysops.aol.com>
Message-ID: <04b301ceffa6$79e3a860$6daaf920$@att.net>

 

 

>? On Behalf Of Alex Blainey
Subject: Re: [ExI] confused trees and bees, FW: Season's Greetings from the Federation

 

-----Original Message-----
From: spike <spike66 at att.net> 

>>?  We should figure out ways to use these unblinking eyes to do more stuff.
 
>>?But back to the original point, how can we ever notice collectively if things like millipedes, woodlice and roaches went missing?  ?
 
>>>spike

 

>?Where are the bloody Roboroaches with micro sized hero headcams? Beaming back daily counts and classification of all the creepy crawlies they encounter. We are in the 21st century right? Come on entomologists, its already the future. get with it?

 

Cameras may be too much information, all those pixels coming back with images.  We might be better off trying to design some form of capacitive switch of some kind, especially since we can tolerate 10 or more percent error and still have a very useful scientific tool.  An ant should have some kind of capacitive/inductive signature, some kind of impedance device which would detect an ant walking nearby.  Or even something that approximates the impedance variation when various beasts crawl past, have it make its best guess if it is a roach, a millipede, an ant, a spider, or any other beast.  If we can rig such a device to use one of these cool new USB dataloggers, such as this one:

 

http://www.digikey.com/product-detail/en/27937/27937-ND/1774413?WT.mc_id=IQ_7595_G_pla1774413 <http://www.digikey.com/product-detail/en/27937/27937-ND/1774413?WT.mc_id=IQ_7595_G_pla1774413&wt.srch=1&wt.medium=cpc> &wt.srch=1&wt.medium=cpc

 

for only 39 bucks!  Wouldn?t it be cool to set several devices like this around one?s yard to study crawling beasts?  I would extremely like that.  I might be able to rig an oscillator of some sort which would sense an ant or other bug.  Oh my evolution, we can make a buttload of money AND study wildlife.

 


>?CCTV or webcams may be a valid idea. A half decent lens and good resolution covering the standard 1 metre/yard square patch of ground. Plug in some movement tracking software and an algorithm to distinguish between a fluttering leaf and a bug making a track. Shame the little critter tend to make a point of being hidden.  A

 

Possibly, but if we do it right, an oscillator might be able to see moving beasts through soil.

 

Al, ya got me thinking hard on this.  A video image is probably more than we need for this task methinks, and even if we get that, we still need some kind of image recognition software of some sort, which is hard to do with insects probably.

 

spike


 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131222/3187e22a/attachment.html>

From cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com  Mon Dec 23 11:56:52 2013
From: cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com (Henrique Moraes Machado)
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2013 09:56:52 -0200
Subject: [ExI] RES:  Movie teasers for "Transcendence" aka the Singularity
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2XGp60JWaBqP4mkFik7bW8t6XBzcHyfrRN6quj7aDYEQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAKQs6YoYCXsB7KmvTTn07xUHLq2VAng4AXwnkcBgB+GxF9zn8w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2XGp60JWaBqP4mkFik7bW8t6XBzcHyfrRN6quj7aDYEQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <019b01ceffd6$12a4d680$37ee8380$@gmail.com>

<JK>
http://io9.com/johnny-depp-gets-crazy-creepy-in-the-first-teaser-for-t-14866
36229
That is a excellent trailer, it's really good, although sometimes the
trailer is much better than the movie. I just hope that in that penultimate
scene the Jupiter Brain is not defeated by means of a martial arts style
fistfight or by a car chase, and then in the last scene have the mad
scientist walk into the sunset with his girlfriend after at last seeing the
evil of his ways and discovering his inner humanity.
</JK>

I don't see how this movie can have an ending other than destroying the
'evil' science and returning everything to 'normality'. I'm still waiting
for a movie that doesn't promote a neo-luddite agenda. And I think I'll have
to wait longer.



From spike66 at att.net  Mon Dec 23 16:05:58 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2013 08:05:58 -0800
Subject: [ExI] confused trees and bees
Message-ID: <059601cefff8$deb32de0$9c1989a0$@att.net>

 

 

>? On Behalf Of Alex Blainey
Subject: Re: [ExI] confused trees and bees, FW: Season's Greetings from the Federation

 

-----Original Message-----
From: spike <spike66 at att.net> 

 
 
>>?  We have a million pairs of eyes and no good way to integrate observations.  ? how can we ever notice collectively if things like millipedes, woodlice and roaches went missing?
>>>spike
 
Upon further pondering this topic it occurred to me that as we mechanize observation techniques and externalize many categories of knowledge, we may be losing ground in our ability to integrate and interpret observations.
 
Consider the original example, declining insect populations.  Think about this: we once spent a lot of intellectual energy learning about different types of ants, learning their habits, observing them (those of us who did that sort of thing, such as Darwin. 
 
See Origin of Species Chapter 7 http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/origin/chapter7.html and go ahead and read it, or just read part of that chapter to get a feel for what I am going on about, how a scientist in those days would really watch something, think about it, then come up with startling insights.
 
Now we are externalizing information with our new tools.  We don?t really need to memorize much, which is good: we have the internet and with these modern phones we can have it with us when we are outdoors.  So we don?t need to memorize all those species, but there is something else: if we don?t memorize those species, we are less likely to know much about them, which means we are less able to notice if anything is amiss and less able to understand what we are seeing.
 
With the possibility of low cost instruments and data loggers, we are mechanizing one aspect of science: we can collect observations.  But those instruments cannot ponder what they are measuring.  We have the possibility of a stunning replication of observational opportunities, but at the same time we may be suffering from a decline in our collective capacity to interpret what we are seeing.
 
spike
 
 

 

 

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131223/196711ac/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Mon Dec 23 16:59:54 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2013 16:59:54 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Earth hoola hoop generator/transport ?
In-Reply-To: <8D0CCD1163464E6-804-34910@webmail-d259.sysops.aol.com>
References: <023201cefdcb$ef6560b0$ce302210$@att.net>
 <8D0CCD1163464E6-804-34910@webmail-d259.sysops.aol.com>
Message-ID: <52B86C0A.4020405@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-22 02:03, Alex Blainey wrote:
>
> I had a crazy idea while designing an integrated solar panel roof 
> system the other day. What if we make a maglev track around the 
> equator, build a big solid continuous train on it like a hoola hoop 
> around the world.
> Would it start to rotate with no driving force other than Earths 
> rotation? Effectivley it would actually be standing still and the 
> planet continuing to do what it does and rotating underneath it.

Is there a constant wind at the equator due to the Earth's rotation? No. 
The train will be at rest relative to the ground when it starts 
levitating and there is no force on it. And if it had any velocity, 
friction with the surroundings would slow it down (even in an evacuated 
tunnel there are always some losses, including ohmic electrical losses 
due to vortex currents).

>
> Then it got really wierd. What would happen to such a stationary (non 
> rotating from a helio centric point of view) object? I personally 
> believe that Earths orbit around the sun is partly a reaction to teh 
> gravitational pull from the sun.

Uh. How much physics do you know? Earth orbits *because* of gravity. And 
yes, something that lacked orbital velocity would just fall in. Move 30 
km/s back from Earth, and you will fall in. But if you do it on a track 
around Earth you only cancel the attraction from the Sun, not from the 
Earth. However, if you move fast enough you (8 km/s) get to surface 
orbital speed - you will be in orbit on ground level.



-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131223/d43bed60/attachment.html>

From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Dec 23 18:03:52 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2013 10:03:52 -0800
Subject: [ExI] confused trees and bees
In-Reply-To: <059601cefff8$deb32de0$9c1989a0$@att.net>
References: <059601cefff8$deb32de0$9c1989a0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTfqU_E-=Bjdv75co+E-O=+_LfqxHDhmDWUTBOJFKWUYA@mail.gmail.com>

On Dec 23, 2013 8:22 AM, "spike" <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> With the possibility of low cost instruments and data loggers, we are
mechanizing one aspect of science: we can collect observations.  But those
instruments cannot ponder what they are measuring.  We have the possibility
of a stunning replication of observational opportunities, but at the same
time we may be suffering from a decline in our collective capacity to
interpret what we are seeing.

Why does this bother you?  The solution is obvious: find a way to mechanize
the pondering too.  Some folk have already been doing this, albeit only
with laboratory demonstrators so far.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131223/10771032/attachment.html>

From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Dec 23 18:31:52 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2013 13:31:52 -0500
Subject: [ExI] RES: Movie teasers for "Transcendence" aka the Singularity
In-Reply-To: <019b01ceffd6$12a4d680$37ee8380$@gmail.com>
References: <CAKQs6YoYCXsB7KmvTTn07xUHLq2VAng4AXwnkcBgB+GxF9zn8w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2XGp60JWaBqP4mkFik7bW8t6XBzcHyfrRN6quj7aDYEQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <019b01ceffd6$12a4d680$37ee8380$@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0hQyRSji+Jtdb8TaqD9bN2rvyCc8QEzW3NVV5mXgmshQ@mail.gmail.com>

Take a look at the most underrated science fiction movie of all time, it's
called  "Colossus: The Forbin Project", in it the supercomputer AI actually
wins! The movie makes you think that the human's plan to regain control is
going to work just as it always does in movies of this sort, but no, it
turns out the computer was just toying with them and the human's never had
a snowball's chance in hell of outsmarting the AI. The film is from 1970 so
the special effects are not bleeding edge, but the script is.

John K Clark
===================

On Mon, Dec 23, 2013 at 6:56 AM, Henrique Moraes Machado <
cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com> wrote:

> <JK>
>
> http://io9.com/johnny-depp-gets-crazy-creepy-in-the-first-teaser-for-t-14866
> 36229
> That is a excellent trailer, it's really good, although sometimes the
> trailer is much better than the movie. I just hope that in that penultimate
> scene the Jupiter Brain is not defeated by means of a martial arts style
> fistfight or by a car chase, and then in the last scene have the mad
> scientist walk into the sunset with his girlfriend after at last seeing the
> evil of his ways and discovering his inner humanity.
> </JK>
>
> I don't see how this movie can have an ending other than destroying the
> 'evil' science and returning everything to 'normality'. I'm still waiting
> for a movie that doesn't promote a neo-luddite agenda. And I think I'll
> have
> to wait longer.
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131223/d89f4c9e/attachment.html>

From cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com  Mon Dec 23 19:59:00 2013
From: cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com (Henrique Moraes Machado)
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2013 17:59:00 -0200
Subject: [ExI] RES: RES: Movie teasers for "Transcendence" aka the
	Singularity
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv0hQyRSji+Jtdb8TaqD9bN2rvyCc8QEzW3NVV5mXgmshQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAKQs6YoYCXsB7KmvTTn07xUHLq2VAng4AXwnkcBgB+GxF9zn8w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2XGp60JWaBqP4mkFik7bW8t6XBzcHyfrRN6quj7aDYEQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <019b01ceffd6$12a4d680$37ee8380$@gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv0hQyRSji+Jtdb8TaqD9bN2rvyCc8QEzW3NVV5mXgmshQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <029701cf0019$6dd239b0$4976ad10$@gmail.com>

<JK>
Take a look at the most underrated science fiction movie of all time, it's?
called? "Colossus: The Forbin Project", in it the supercomputer AI actually
wins! The movie makes you think that the human's plan to regain control is
going to work just as it always does in movies of this sort, but no, it
turns out the computer was just toying with them and the human's never had a
snowball's chance in hell of outsmarting the AI. The film is from 1970 so
the special effects are not bleeding edge, but the script is. 
</JK>


Thank you. I found it complete on Youtube, by the way:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZE6ltxqEmA





From ablainey at aol.com  Mon Dec 23 19:54:30 2013
From: ablainey at aol.com (Alex Blainey)
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2013 14:54:30 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [ExI] Earth hoola hoop generator/transport ?
In-Reply-To: <52B86C0A.4020405@aleph.se>
References: <023201cefdcb$ef6560b0$ce302210$@att.net>
 <8D0CCD1163464E6-804-34910@webmail-d259.sysops.aol.com>
 <52B86C0A.4020405@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <8D0CE2FEDA104C7-1A44-3B129@webmail-m277.sysops.aol.com>


 

 

 

-----Original Message-----
From: Anders Sandberg : Mon, 23 Dec 2013 17:43



    >Is there a constant wind at the equator due to the Earth's rotation?    No. The train will be at rest relative to the ground when it starts    levitating and there is no force on it. And if it had any velocity,    friction with the surroundings would slow it down (even in an    >evacuated tunnel there are always some losses, including ohmic    electrical losses due to vortex currents).
    >........
    >Uh. How much physics do you know? Earth orbits *because* of gravity.    And yes, something that lacked orbital velocity would just fall in.    Move 30 km/s back from Earth, and you will fall in. But if you do it    on a track around Earth you only cancel the >attraction from the Sun,    not from the Earth. However, if you move fast enough you (8 km/s)    get to surface orbital speed - you will be in orbit on ground level.    
    
    The way im looking at it is that the system gains *relative* movement due to entropy. In effect it is the losses of the system that cause it to rotate. Rather than standing on a stationary point and trying to make something move,
We are talking about standing at a moving point and allowing something to lag behind.
Yes, I believe there is a general westerly trend in wind direction at the equator which demonstrates the idea.

Re: the gravitational physics, Im not refering to earths constant state of fall toward the sun, offset/balanced by its orbital rotation around the gravity well as per conventional physics. Its something in my "Big mental file of stuff that's probably cobblers, but fun to think about" Where the gravitation force of the sun is acting on a rotating body. This force is felt partially at 90deg thus causing the orbit. Similarly the gravitational pull of the earth itself on its own mass causes it to spin about its axis.
Taking that as the thought starting point and applying it to the train. If the train were in a theoretical totally friction free environment. Would entropy cause it to rotate westwards? Or as per the idea that gravity itself causes orbital rotation, would that force cause it to either stay static relative to the ground or even make it rotate eastward?
The rationale behind it rotating eastward and thus faster than Earths rotation being that the earth's axial spin is a result of average of forces. The closer to the earths core you get the less downward gravity its matter experiences. So a ring at the Earths surface would experience the full force of the entire planet. Its net force felt would be higher than the average felt by Earth.
All of that is really a side arguement. The main question being, if we built it, would it spin? (relative to us)

A tertiary consideration would be as the ring-train is independent of the planet, what effect would the orbital path of the Earth and gravity of the sun have? Im assuming that the ring would try to slam into the track at roughly the sun rise point as Earth moves in that direction.
Likewise it would be pulled directly by the sun and also the midnight position of the ring would be pulled toward the track. the result being a misalignment of the ring due to a force moment somewhere near a 45 degree angle.

A
    

 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131223/508e1c2c/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Mon Dec 23 20:10:41 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2013 12:10:41 -0800
Subject: [ExI] confused trees and bees
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTfqU_E-=Bjdv75co+E-O=+_LfqxHDhmDWUTBOJFKWUYA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <059601cefff8$deb32de0$9c1989a0$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNTfqU_E-=Bjdv75co+E-O=+_LfqxHDhmDWUTBOJFKWUYA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <06ac01cf001b$0e6ee7a0$2b4cb6e0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Sent: Monday, December 23, 2013 10:04 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] confused trees and bees

 

On Dec 23, 2013 8:22 AM, "spike" <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>>. With the possibility of low cost instruments and data loggers, we are
mechanizing one aspect of science: we can collect observations.  But those
instruments cannot ponder what they are measuring.  We have the possibility
of a stunning replication of observational opportunities, but at the same
time we may be suffering from a decline in our collective capacity to
interpret what we are seeing.

>.Why does this bother you?  The solution is obvious: find a way to
mechanize the pondering too.  Some folk have already been doing this, albeit
only with laboratory demonstrators so far.

 

Adrian, this is why I referenced Darwin's stunning seventh chapter of Origin
of Species, and I do hope everyone takes a few minutes to read that chapter,
or part of that chapter, or even a few paragraphs.

http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/origin/chapter7.html 

Much of the reason evolution theory is still so misunderstood is that most
people read what others wrote about Origin of Species rather than reading
Origin of Species.  Darwin wrote the very best explanation of evolution I
have read to date, and I have read plenty of them.  He was a master at
turning observation into insight.  The language is within reach of typical
high school graduates, and the guy just comes off as a super-smart friendly,
kindhearted, nineteenth century Anders Sandberg except with a huge beard.
You feel like he would be your friend if you met him even once.

Regarding your notion of mechanizing this process of observation to insight,
or inductive reasoning, I would argue we are nowhere close to this, not even
close, not on the horizon.  There have been a few dozen humans in all of
history who are stellar at this, Newton, Darwin, Gould, Asimov, Sagan are
five examples who come to mind.  These are stellar paragons of virtue in
explaining scientific observation down to the layman.  It feels to me like
we need some kind of mechanism for handing scientific observations back up
to them.

I don't think we are anywhere near software capable of this.

spike

 

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131223/09965691/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Mon Dec 23 21:05:29 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2013 13:05:29 -0800
Subject: [ExI] confused trees and bees
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTfqU_E-=Bjdv75co+E-O=+_LfqxHDhmDWUTBOJFKWUYA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <059601cefff8$deb32de0$9c1989a0$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNTfqU_E-=Bjdv75co+E-O=+_LfqxHDhmDWUTBOJFKWUYA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <06d201cf0022$b6383a20$22a8ae60$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Sent: Monday, December 23, 2013 10:04 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] confused trees and bees

 

On Dec 23, 2013 8:22 AM, "spike" <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>>. With the possibility of low cost instruments and data loggers, we are
mechanizing one aspect of science: we can collect observations.  But those
instruments cannot ponder what they are measuring.  We have the possibility
of a stunning replication of observational opportunities, but at the same
time we may be suffering from a decline in our collective capacity to
interpret what we are seeing.

>.Why does this bother you?  The solution is obvious: find a way to
mechanize the pondering too.  Some folk have already been doing this, albeit
only with laboratory demonstrators so far.

 

Furthermore, I fear that even if we manage to write software which ponders
data and somehow derives AHA insights, we will not be able to write the
software such that it enjoys that process the way we do.

spike

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131223/43908b12/attachment.html>

From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Dec 23 21:59:33 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2013 13:59:33 -0800
Subject: [ExI] confused trees and bees
In-Reply-To: <06ac01cf001b$0e6ee7a0$2b4cb6e0$@att.net>
References: <059601cefff8$deb32de0$9c1989a0$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNTfqU_E-=Bjdv75co+E-O=+_LfqxHDhmDWUTBOJFKWUYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <06ac01cf001b$0e6ee7a0$2b4cb6e0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTKefFN2Gz7-fjOFn96Z2Gcv2TmFb0oB-K+4q6gzC+LCQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Dec 23, 2013 12:26 PM, "spike" <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> I don?t think we are anywhere near software capable of this.

The search phrase you want is "automated scientific discovery".

There is quite a bit of work left to be done, but we do not seem to be as
far away as you suspect.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131223/8f57064e/attachment.html>

From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Dec 23 22:13:06 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2013 14:13:06 -0800
Subject: [ExI] confused trees and bees
In-Reply-To: <06d201cf0022$b6383a20$22a8ae60$@att.net>
References: <059601cefff8$deb32de0$9c1989a0$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNTfqU_E-=Bjdv75co+E-O=+_LfqxHDhmDWUTBOJFKWUYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <06d201cf0022$b6383a20$22a8ae60$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQgMRJHPPu0F9dadtaR6R0iTSsN9x=QOP9n+fY93tnOqw@mail.gmail.com>

On Dec 23, 2013 1:21 PM, "spike" <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> Furthermore, I fear that even if we manage to write software which
ponders data and somehow derives AHA insights, we will not be able to write
the software such that it enjoys that process the way we do.

Prove that it doesn't.  Prove that your calculator doesn't experience
rapture every time it solves an equation for you, its user.  Prove that
your Web browser does not experience your Web surfing as near-endless toil
akin to Sisyphus.  ;)
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131223/07a4e3df/attachment.html>

From test at ssec.wisc.edu  Tue Dec 24 06:26:14 2013
From: test at ssec.wisc.edu (Bill Hibbard)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 00:26:14 -0600 (CST)
Subject: [ExI] Royal Pardon for Alan Turing
Message-ID: <Pine.SOC.4.64.1312240025100.13424@sarah.ssec.wisc.edu>

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/24/world/europe/alan-turing-enigma-code-breaker-and-computer-pioneer-wins-royal-pardon.html


From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Tue Dec 24 09:00:25 2013
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 10:00:25 +0100
Subject: [ExI] RES: RES: Movie teasers for "Transcendence" aka the
	Singularity
In-Reply-To: <029701cf0019$6dd239b0$4976ad10$@gmail.com>
References: <CAKQs6YoYCXsB7KmvTTn07xUHLq2VAng4AXwnkcBgB+GxF9zn8w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2XGp60JWaBqP4mkFik7bW8t6XBzcHyfrRN6quj7aDYEQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <019b01ceffd6$12a4d680$37ee8380$@gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv0hQyRSji+Jtdb8TaqD9bN2rvyCc8QEzW3NVV5mXgmshQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <029701cf0019$6dd239b0$4976ad10$@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFQ3JLzWSCOFZ6UzWgeAdQAFRvobneW1bKKiR7u3_xGeOA@mail.gmail.com>

> called  "Colossus: The Forbin Project"

I even have the book! Read it in my formative years It's possible  reason
why I have zero tolerance for pussies or for the Wets as Margaret Teacher
would called them.

I don't mean politics here, of course.


On Mon, Dec 23, 2013 at 8:59 PM, Henrique Moraes Machado <
cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com> wrote:

> <JK>
> Take a look at the most underrated science fiction movie of all time, it's
> called  "Colossus: The Forbin Project", in it the supercomputer AI actually
> wins! The movie makes you think that the human's plan to regain control is
> going to work just as it always does in movies of this sort, but no, it
> turns out the computer was just toying with them and the human's never had
> a
> snowball's chance in hell of outsmarting the AI. The film is from 1970 so
> the special effects are not bleeding edge, but the script is.
> </JK>
>
>
> Thank you. I found it complete on Youtube, by the way:
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZE6ltxqEmA
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131224/0c07c543/attachment.html>

From steinberg.will at gmail.com  Tue Dec 24 09:59:49 2013
From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 04:59:49 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Royal Pardon for Alan Turing
In-Reply-To: <Pine.SOC.4.64.1312240025100.13424@sarah.ssec.wisc.edu>
References: <Pine.SOC.4.64.1312240025100.13424@sarah.ssec.wisc.edu>
Message-ID: <CAKrqSyFu5YzWTv-ag9JzH+TEFMSPfAa-QnYWQAA8JX7A1CTE7A@mail.gmail.com>

Bit late for that.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131224/8bc7f1cb/attachment.html>

From giulio at gmail.com  Tue Dec 24 10:03:09 2013
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 11:03:09 +0100
Subject: [ExI] RES: RES: Movie teasers for "Transcendence" aka the
	Singularity
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFQ3JLzWSCOFZ6UzWgeAdQAFRvobneW1bKKiR7u3_xGeOA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAKQs6YoYCXsB7KmvTTn07xUHLq2VAng4AXwnkcBgB+GxF9zn8w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2XGp60JWaBqP4mkFik7bW8t6XBzcHyfrRN6quj7aDYEQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <019b01ceffd6$12a4d680$37ee8380$@gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv0hQyRSji+Jtdb8TaqD9bN2rvyCc8QEzW3NVV5mXgmshQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <029701cf0019$6dd239b0$4976ad10$@gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQ3JLzWSCOFZ6UzWgeAdQAFRvobneW1bKKiR7u3_xGeOA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAKTCJye5JHVhXkNCew8_5aDmOVZH4-x+wa6AgVK7K5-Fr3aXtQ@mail.gmail.com>

As Johnny Depp (Will) is dying of radiation poisoning from the dirty
bullet, his mind is uploaded into a supercomputer.

?Will?s body is dying, but his mind is a pattern of electrical
signals. We can upload his consciousness. We can save him.?

IMDB: ?Two leading computer scientists work toward their goal of
Technological Singularity, as a radical anti-technology organization
fights to prevent them from creating a world where computers can
transcend the abilities of the human brain.?

Of course, though leading scientists working on related developments
on AI and mind uploading are among the advisers, these scientific
concepts are likely to be dumbed down for a wide audience, but I hope
not too much. Of course there may be hints at negative, dystopian
interpretations, but from what I have seen the film will present a
basically positive view of AI and uploading. The star and hero Johnny
Depp is, after all, the one who wants to build AI and eventually gets
uploaded.

This is a big budget Hollywood film for a wide audience, and it will
push the concepts of technological singularity, artificial
intelligence, and mind uploading, into the cultural mainstream, much
more than hundreds of scientific articles and popular science blogs.

I can?t wait to see Transcendence.

On Tue, Dec 24, 2013 at 10:00 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> called  "Colossus: The Forbin Project"
>
> I even have the book! Read it in my formative years It's possible  reason
> why I have zero tolerance for pussies or for the Wets as Margaret Teacher
> would called them.
>
> I don't mean politics here, of course.
>
>
> On Mon, Dec 23, 2013 at 8:59 PM, Henrique Moraes Machado
> <cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> <JK>
>> Take a look at the most underrated science fiction movie of all time, it's
>> called  "Colossus: The Forbin Project", in it the supercomputer AI
>> actually
>> wins! The movie makes you think that the human's plan to regain control is
>> going to work just as it always does in movies of this sort, but no, it
>> turns out the computer was just toying with them and the human's never had
>> a
>> snowball's chance in hell of outsmarting the AI. The film is from 1970 so
>> the special effects are not bleeding edge, but the script is.
>> </JK>
>>
>>
>> Thank you. I found it complete on Youtube, by the way:
>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZE6ltxqEmA
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
>
>
> --
> https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



From anders at aleph.se  Tue Dec 24 10:34:50 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 10:34:50 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Royal Pardon for Alan Turing
In-Reply-To: <CAKrqSyFu5YzWTv-ag9JzH+TEFMSPfAa-QnYWQAA8JX7A1CTE7A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <Pine.SOC.4.64.1312240025100.13424@sarah.ssec.wisc.edu>
 <CAKrqSyFu5YzWTv-ag9JzH+TEFMSPfAa-QnYWQAA8JX7A1CTE7A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52B9634A.8070900@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-24 09:59, Will Steinberg wrote:
> Bit late for that.

I wonder, should we now pardon Oscar Wilde next? And after that, the 
various wives of Henry VIII?

Pardons are problematic in a lot of ways. I wrote about it last year:
http://blog.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk/2012/12/sui-generis-or-generic-gay-pardoning-alan-turing/


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Tue Dec 24 16:51:06 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan Ust)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 08:51:06 -0800
Subject: [ExI] First possible exomoon detection
Message-ID: <AFFE0A9F-15E4-4CBB-ADC1-53B0F1E959D9@yahoo.com>

http://www.nature.com/news/first-possible-exomoon-spotted-1.14430?WT.ec_id=NEWS-20131224

Regards,

Dan
 See my #Kindle "books" at:
http://www.amazon.com/s?ie=UTF8&field-author=Dan%20Ust&page=1&rh=n%3A133140011%2Cp_27%3ADan%20Ust
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131224/ecf66212/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Tue Dec 24 17:04:58 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 09:04:58 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Royal Pardon for Alan Turing
In-Reply-To: <52B9634A.8070900@aleph.se>
References: <Pine.SOC.4.64.1312240025100.13424@sarah.ssec.wisc.edu>
 <CAKrqSyFu5YzWTv-ag9JzH+TEFMSPfAa-QnYWQAA8JX7A1CTE7A@mail.gmail.com>
 <52B9634A.8070900@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <00ef01cf00ca$47526650$d5f732f0$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Subject: Re: [ExI] Royal Pardon for Alan Turing

On 2013-12-24 09:59, Will Steinberg wrote:
>> Bit late for that.

>...I wonder, should we now pardon Oscar Wilde next? And after that, the
various wives of Henry VIII?

>...Pardons are problematic in a lot of ways. I wrote about it last year:
http://blog.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk/2012/12/sui-generis-or-generic-gay-pard
oning-alan-turing/
--
>...Dr Anders Sandberg
_______________________________________________


There is always value in doing all we can do to try to compensate as far as
possible for past societal misdeeds and regrettable attitudes.  In Turing's
case it is so much more than just the gay angle, so I always like seeing his
work and his contribution cited in the public consciousness.  We often see
it directing our attention at the gross injustices aimed at gays, which goes
on to this day in many (perhaps most) parts of the world.  That should be
cited as well of course.  I like seeing Turing cited for the other aspects
of his powerful notions.

Alfred Nobel invented dynamite hoping it would end war; it didn't.  The
nuclear physicists held out the same hope; the jury is still out on that.
Nukes may have ended one kind of war.  But now Turing.  His work led to
digital computers.  One might be able to argue that digital computers result
in the end of another kind of war, for as a result of digital computers, so
much traditional warfare makes no sense.  We now have a growing awareness
that current and future warfare will involve small groups of people down to
a single person struggling to break down an adversary or take her assets
using computers.  This means no explosions, no starving and shivering
refugees, no destruction of buildings or farmland, no physical injury.

We may make the case that Turing's work partially achieved Nobel's dream.
He is being recognized as a major contributor in winning world war 2, by
enabling the British to have a better command of information.  But we might
go beyond that, and say that in a sense vaguely analogous to that of Ender
Wiggins, Turing's work not only contributed to winning that war, it won all
of them.

spike



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue Dec 24 17:32:59 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 12:32:59 -0500
Subject: [ExI] RES: RES: Movie teasers for "Transcendence" aka the
	Singularity
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFQ3JLzWSCOFZ6UzWgeAdQAFRvobneW1bKKiR7u3_xGeOA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAKQs6YoYCXsB7KmvTTn07xUHLq2VAng4AXwnkcBgB+GxF9zn8w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2XGp60JWaBqP4mkFik7bW8t6XBzcHyfrRN6quj7aDYEQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <019b01ceffd6$12a4d680$37ee8380$@gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv0hQyRSji+Jtdb8TaqD9bN2rvyCc8QEzW3NVV5mXgmshQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <029701cf0019$6dd239b0$4976ad10$@gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQ3JLzWSCOFZ6UzWgeAdQAFRvobneW1bKKiR7u3_xGeOA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv1kOe_VBEKQ4Nfy+fDfGLNhjG2XDK9cUXek2Tj1zoyxkw@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Dec 24, 2013 at 4:00 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>wrote:

>> called  "Colossus: The Forbin Project"
>>
>
> > I even have the book! Read it in my formative years
>

I did too, I read it before I saw the movie and before I even knew they
were making a movie of it. I remember thinking the book's basic premise was
great but its execution was not. This is one of the rare times where the
movie is better, much better, than the book; the movie makers kept all the
good stuff and got rid of all the bad. I wish I could get it on Blu-ray.

  John K Clark
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131224/bd288d20/attachment.html>

From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Dec 24 18:04:37 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 11:04:37 -0700
Subject: [ExI] First possible exomoon detection
In-Reply-To: <AFFE0A9F-15E4-4CBB-ADC1-53B0F1E959D9@yahoo.com>
References: <AFFE0A9F-15E4-4CBB-ADC1-53B0F1E959D9@yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZAhr+7YU5sCjUBetDBmCNVe75PbCQAwhN2gGj-PXr3eQ@mail.gmail.com>

As is usual with such things, the headline and the story don't entirely
match. They had one observation that could be explained in multiple ways,
and the world press gloms onto the most spectacular of several
possibilities. The Press is going to hell.

-Kelly


On Tue, Dec 24, 2013 at 9:51 AM, Dan Ust <dan_ust at yahoo.com> wrote:

>
> http://www.nature.com/news/first-possible-exomoon-spotted-1.14430?WT.ec_id=NEWS-20131224
>
> Regards,
>
> Dan
>  See my #Kindle "books" at:
>
> http://www.amazon.com/s?ie=UTF8&field-author=Dan%20Ust&page=1&rh=n%3A133140011%2Cp_27%3ADan%20Ust
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131224/ba3148de/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Tue Dec 24 17:49:30 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 17:49:30 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Royal Pardon for Alan Turing
In-Reply-To: <00ef01cf00ca$47526650$d5f732f0$@att.net>
References: <Pine.SOC.4.64.1312240025100.13424@sarah.ssec.wisc.edu>
 <CAKrqSyFu5YzWTv-ag9JzH+TEFMSPfAa-QnYWQAA8JX7A1CTE7A@mail.gmail.com>
 <52B9634A.8070900@aleph.se> <00ef01cf00ca$47526650$d5f732f0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <52B9C92A.9020000@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-24 17:04, spike wrote:
> There is always value in doing all we can do to try to compensate as far as
> possible for past societal misdeeds and regrettable attitudes.  In Turing's
> case it is so much more than just the gay angle, so I always like seeing his
> work and his contribution cited in the public consciousness.  We often see
> it directing our attention at the gross injustices aimed at gays, which goes
> on to this day in many (perhaps most) parts of the world.  That should be
> cited as well of course.  I like seeing Turing cited for the other aspects
> of his powerful notions.

While doing the pardon right now might be a relevant pro-tolerance 
signal (especially given recent news from Russia, India and Uganda), as 
I argued in my essay (1) if you pardon Turing for being a great person, 
then you don't say much about gay rights (most of us are not as great as 
Turing), (2) if you pardon Turing for being an unfairly persecuted gay 
guy, then it is problematic to just pardon him and not the others. If 
you do it for reason (3) to remind people who he was and what he did, 
then it seems one could do it more easily without a pardon - a public 
holiday, a special royal speech, a television special or something like it.

Turing changed the world in a lot of ways. He made computation something 
*concrete*, something almost physical and tangible. Shannon did the same 
with the information. This is a conceptual shift that is pretty 
enormous. But Turing also made the mind computational - even if it is 
still a controversial idea, it has profoundly affected our culture. He 
was even on his way to make life itself computational near the end.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From spike66 at att.net  Tue Dec 24 18:47:54 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 10:47:54 -0800
Subject: [ExI] compatriot down, was:  RE:  Royal Pardon for Alan Turing
Message-ID: <001001cf00d8$a8ed1780$fac74680$@att.net>

>...then it seems one could do it more easily without a pardon - a public
holiday, a special royal speech, a television special or something like
it... Anders


Public holiday!  Excellent idea.  We can declare 23 June Turing day, or 7
June Worldwide Geeks In Remembrance Day.



OK new topic please.

There was a tragic shooting at a hospital last week which you can learn
about by googling on Christine Lajeunesse.  It was several days after before
they would tell us she will survive.  So now I implore you to write a card,
or a note on paper, a postcard anything you feel moved to do, write one,
encouragement from a stranger to one who richly deserves it, and send it to
this @:

Christine
c/o Bob Anthony
5366 Ventana Parkway
Reno NV 89511

Dr. Lajeunesse was a personal acquaintance online only.  We worked together
on a medical instrument I have proposed, the details of which I cannot
reveal yet.

Do write a note, drop it into an envelope, stamp it, send it to Bob, do it,
do it now, DAVAI DAVAI DAVIA, a Newtonmass good deed awaits, do get on that
please, and I thank you from the bottom, do it.

spike





From spike66 at att.net  Tue Dec 24 19:39:54 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 11:39:54 -0800
Subject: [ExI] compatriot down, was:  RE:  Royal Pardon for Alan Turing
In-Reply-To: <001001cf00d8$a8ed1780$fac74680$@att.net>
References: <001001cf00d8$a8ed1780$fac74680$@att.net>
Message-ID: <006101cf00df$ed9fbed0$c8df3c70$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike


>...  So now I implore you to write a card, or a note on paper, a postcard
anything you feel moved to do, write one, encouragement from a stranger to
one who richly deserves it, and send it to this @:

Christine
c/o Bob Anthony
5366 Ventana Parkway
Reno NV 89511
...

>...Do write a note, drop it into an envelope, stamp it, send it to Bob, do
it, do it now, DAVAI DAVAI DAVIA, a Newtonmass good deed awaits, do get on
that please, and I thank you from the bottom, do it.

spike


Did you do it?  What's stopping ya?  Do it now, lets see some of that good
new-fashioned extropian good will towards humanity, ja?  A card, a
handwritten note, a postcard, anything, hasta be on paper because of limited
computer use, a best wishes for a speedy recovery is good enough, anything
is better than nothing.

Thanks my friends!  {8-]

spike



From spike66 at att.net  Tue Dec 24 20:03:09 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 12:03:09 -0800
Subject: [ExI] compatriot down...
Message-ID: <006e01cf00e3$2ba67860$82f36920$@att.net>


Christine
c/o Bob Anthony
5366 Ventana Parkway
Reno NV 89511




Pardon the dull repetition, but I really sincerely do want this done.  I
will issue Get Out of Moderation Free cards, or look the other way if you
post over five times in the same day.  Win one for the Gipper my friends, do
this for your old moderator buddy, do it for the late Robert Bradbury who
would have done it had he been still with us, do it for Dr. Lajeunesse, just
do it.

spike





-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike


>...  So now I implore you to write a card, or a note on paper, a 
>postcard
anything you feel moved to do, write one, encouragement from a stranger to
one who richly deserves it, and send it to this @:

Christine
c/o Bob Anthony
5366 Ventana Parkway
Reno NV 89511
...

>...Do write a note, drop it into an envelope, stamp it, send it to Bob, 
>do
it, do it now, DAVAI DAVAI DAVIA, a Newtonmass good deed awaits, do get on
that please, and I thank you from the bottom, do it.

spike


>...Did you do it?  What's stopping ya?  Do it now, lets see some of that
good new-fashioned extropian good will towards humanity, ja?  A card, a
handwritten note, a postcard, anything, hasta be on paper because of limited
computer use, a best wishes for a speedy recovery is good enough, anything
is better than nothing.

Thanks my friends!  {8-]

spike

_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat



From steinberg.will at gmail.com  Tue Dec 24 21:22:45 2013
From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 16:22:45 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Royal Pardon for Alan Turing
In-Reply-To: <52B9C92A.9020000@aleph.se>
References: <Pine.SOC.4.64.1312240025100.13424@sarah.ssec.wisc.edu>
 <CAKrqSyFu5YzWTv-ag9JzH+TEFMSPfAa-QnYWQAA8JX7A1CTE7A@mail.gmail.com>
 <52B9634A.8070900@aleph.se>
 <00ef01cf00ca$47526650$d5f732f0$@att.net>
 <52B9C92A.9020000@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAKrqSyFPVV_8n9K6dfpWvpBmzPSSfMjO+2iCAq9uptFDCV4hBQ@mail.gmail.com>

The fact that they denied the same pardon but a year ago makes it seem like
an empty gesture.  This is the government that drove one of the greatest
geniuses of our time to suicide by STERILIZING him...
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131224/aafae81c/attachment.html>

From rtomek at ceti.pl  Tue Dec 24 21:24:52 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 22:24:52 +0100 (CET)
Subject: [ExI] compatriot down...
In-Reply-To: <006e01cf00e3$2ba67860$82f36920$@att.net>
References: <006e01cf00e3$2ba67860$82f36920$@att.net>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1312242222590.6992@tau.ceti.pl>

On Tue, 24 Dec 2013, spike wrote:

> 
> Christine
> c/o Bob Anthony
> 5366 Ventana Parkway
> Reno NV 89511
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pardon the dull repetition, but I really sincerely do want this done.  I
> will issue Get Out of Moderation Free cards, or look the other way if you
> post over five times in the same day.  Win one for the Gipper my friends, do
> this for your old moderator buddy, do it for the late Robert Bradbury who
> would have done it had he been still with us, do it for Dr. Lajeunesse, just
> do it.
> 
> spike

Spike, I'm not up to sending postcards but I wish your friend all the best 
and recovery.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Dec 24 21:51:08 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 21:51:08 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Royal Pardon for Alan Turing
In-Reply-To: <CAKrqSyFPVV_8n9K6dfpWvpBmzPSSfMjO+2iCAq9uptFDCV4hBQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <Pine.SOC.4.64.1312240025100.13424@sarah.ssec.wisc.edu>
 <CAKrqSyFu5YzWTv-ag9JzH+TEFMSPfAa-QnYWQAA8JX7A1CTE7A@mail.gmail.com>
 <52B9634A.8070900@aleph.se>
 <00ef01cf00ca$47526650$d5f732f0$@att.net>
 <52B9C92A.9020000@aleph.se>
 <CAKrqSyFPVV_8n9K6dfpWvpBmzPSSfMjO+2iCAq9uptFDCV4hBQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armiNwr9-dLhPXZW8R=AKkGwRr51GD30y3S83vgbLxxozhQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Dec 24, 2013 at 9:22 PM, Will Steinberg wrote:
> The fact that they denied the same pardon but a year ago makes it seem like
> an empty gesture.  This is the government that drove one of the greatest
> geniuses of our time to suicide by STERILIZING him...
>
>

Earlier governments did much worse than that.
Heretics and witches were tortured and burnt at the stake. Capital
punishment was common. Slavery was normal.
The Royal Pardoner will be very busy if all earlier wrongs are to be
righted (by our current standards).

This is likely to be a permanent job as future generations will
probably want to pardon a lot of the things we do nowadays.


BillK


From gts_2000 at yahoo.com  Wed Dec 25 04:14:21 2013
From: gts_2000 at yahoo.com (Gordon)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 20:14:21 -0800 (PST)
Subject: [ExI] "Law of the Crypto Coin" proven by new data point?
In-Reply-To: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>
References: <52B028E6.7070201@canonizer.com>
Message-ID: <1387944861.79923.YahooMailNeo@web164601.mail.gq1.yahoo.com>



Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at canonizer.com> wrote:


"Now that Bitcoin has hit a $1000/BTC in 7 months, has anyone not in the?

"Law of the Crypto Coin" camp been converted by the fact that now 6 of?
all 7 order of magnitude increases, have all been in about 6 months?"

No, it has not "converted" me.?

"If?not, how many more 6 month order of magnitude increases will be required?

to convert you?"

No number would "convert" me. Many things grow exponentially at first, and many things seem to follow such patterns in hindsight. For example, I could probably find periods in the early history of Apple or Microsoft in which their stock prices seemed to grow exponentially. It would have been a mistake to assume that those price patterns were evidence of some mystical "law" (mystical in that you cannot and never have explained the fundamental underpinnings of your supposed "law".)

That said, I am still happily long a pile of bitcoins. I have no intention of selling anytime soon. I check this group occasionally, but I spend most of my online time these days moderating a facebook group for discussion of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. You and everyone else here are welcome to join. The group is not public but you can find it in the facebook search engine under "cryptocurrency speculation forum". If you do join, please mention that know me from ExI (you deserve a special tip of the hat).

Gordon
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131224/f04ecef5/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Wed Dec 25 05:37:01 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013 21:37:01 -0800
Subject: [ExI] compatriot down...
In-Reply-To: <006e01cf00e3$2ba67860$82f36920$@att.net>
References: <006e01cf00e3$2ba67860$82f36920$@att.net>
Message-ID: <000001cf0133$56fe25d0$04fa7170$@att.net>


Turing gets his pardon, and we have a story in the mainstream press to
remind us of what a great man he was:

http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/24/world/europe/alan-turing-royal-pardon/index.ht
ml?hpt=hp_c3



Thanks to all who wrote a card or a note for Dr. Lajeunesse, and thanks to
all who are going to.  I don't know if it helps to get a pile of cards and
notes from strangers, but Gina Nanogirl Miller and Keith Henson got a bunch
of them from us during their time of trouble, and they liked them.  I can
imagine they couldn't hoit.  I would classify it as a low-cost good deed.

If you didn't hear about Christine Lajeunesse, the short version of the
story is some yahoo came into the office with a twelve gage, shot and killed
her partner, shot a patient, shot Dr. Lajeunesse at point blank, then slew
himself.  We didn't know for several days if she would live.  We heard today
she probably will survive.  Future uncertain past that.

If you didn't write a note and later change your mind, the address is below.

spike


-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike
Sent: Tuesday, December 24, 2013 12:03 PM
To: 'ExI chat list'
Subject: Re: [ExI] compatriot down...


Christine
c/o Bob Anthony
5366 Ventana Parkway
Reno NV 89511

Pardon the dull repetition, but I really sincerely do want this done.  I
will issue Get Out of Moderation Free cards, or look the other way if you
post over five times in the same day.  Win one for the Gipper my friends, do
this for your old moderator buddy, do it for the late Robert Bradbury who
would have done it had he been still with us, do it for Dr. Lajeunesse, just
do it.

spike





-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike


>...  So now I implore you to write a card, or a note on paper, a 
>postcard
anything you feel moved to do, write one, encouragement from a stranger to
one who richly deserves it, and send it to this @:

Christine
c/o Bob Anthony
5366 Ventana Parkway
Reno NV 89511
...

>...Do write a note, drop it into an envelope, stamp it, send it to Bob, 
>do
it, do it now, DAVAI DAVAI DAVIA, a Newtonmass good deed awaits, do get on
that please, and I thank you from the bottom, do it.

spike


>...Did you do it?  What's stopping ya?  Do it now, lets see some of 
>that
good new-fashioned extropian good will towards humanity, ja?  A card, a
handwritten note, a postcard, anything, hasta be on paper because of limited
computer use, a best wishes for a speedy recovery is good enough, anything
is better than nothing.

Thanks my friends!  {8-]

spike

_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat



From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Wed Dec 25 08:02:56 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan Ust)
Date: Wed, 25 Dec 2013 00:02:56 -0800
Subject: [ExI] First possible exomoon detection
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZAhr+7YU5sCjUBetDBmCNVe75PbCQAwhN2gGj-PXr3eQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <AFFE0A9F-15E4-4CBB-ADC1-53B0F1E959D9@yahoo.com>
 <CAPy8RwZAhr+7YU5sCjUBetDBmCNVe75PbCQAwhN2gGj-PXr3eQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <54CB39C7-F310-4FFA-ACA6-2170E446CB3A@yahoo.com>

On Dec 24, 2013, at 10:04 AM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:
> As is usual with such things, the headline and the story don't entirely match. They had one observation that could be explained in multiple ways, and the world press gloms onto the most spectacular of several possibilities. The Press is going to hell.
> 
> -Kelly

Nature is hardly the "world press" and the Nature story actually is very careful to point out the ambiguities with the claim.

Regards,

Dan
 See my #Kindle "books" at:
http://www.amazon.com/s?ie=UTF8&field-author=Dan%20Ust&page=1&rh=n%3A133140011%2Cp_27%3ADan%20Ust
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131225/7169e76e/attachment.html>

From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Wed Dec 25 22:51:32 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Wed, 25 Dec 2013 14:51:32 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Cooling propulsion lasers in space
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB5fj=JRGo2nkfD7qr7nPrLbx+-9SYEy6ibyW2Z-UVR3jw@mail.gmail.com>

To get the cost down to where power satellites make economic sense
(half the price of electricity from coal) means getting the exhaust
velocity higher than is possible with chemical propulsion. i.e.,
lasers, big lasers.

In order to make efficient use of the lasers either the lasers or a
redirection mirror needs to be in GEO. It is a hard engineering
problem for the laser beam to go up through the murky atmosphere,
bounce off a mirror at GEO and come down to focus on a rocket.  Less
challenging for the laser is to locate it in GEO.

But then you have to power the laser.  The vehicle requirement is
about 3 GW (considering losses) so the laser input is ~6 GW and you
have to get rid of 3 GW of waste heat at around 12 deg C.

Powering the laser is discussed here:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2013/09/propulsion-lasers-for-large-scale.html

I now have a six page draft design for a 3 GW condensing steam
radiator.  It's 40 tubes, each 25 meters in diameter and 2700 meters
long.

If anyone would like to look at it, let me know.

Keith


From rolandodegilead at gmail.com  Thu Dec 26 01:05:38 2013
From: rolandodegilead at gmail.com (=?ISO-8859-1?Q?Eugenio_Mart=EDnez?=)
Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2013 02:05:38 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Royal Pardon for Alan Turing
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiNwr9-dLhPXZW8R=AKkGwRr51GD30y3S83vgbLxxozhQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <Pine.SOC.4.64.1312240025100.13424@sarah.ssec.wisc.edu>
 <CAKrqSyFu5YzWTv-ag9JzH+TEFMSPfAa-QnYWQAA8JX7A1CTE7A@mail.gmail.com>
 <52B9634A.8070900@aleph.se> <00ef01cf00ca$47526650$d5f732f0$@att.net>
 <52B9C92A.9020000@aleph.se>
 <CAKrqSyFPVV_8n9K6dfpWvpBmzPSSfMjO+2iCAq9uptFDCV4hBQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armiNwr9-dLhPXZW8R=AKkGwRr51GD30y3S83vgbLxxozhQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CANSO=1=G5y3VEkv1Y9TrmbUSxMJfpdp10WHxKAE9BBnurGWzQA@mail.gmail.com>

I think that the important question is: Do Alan Turing pardon the Queen?


On Tue, Dec 24, 2013 at 10:51 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Tue, Dec 24, 2013 at 9:22 PM, Will Steinberg wrote:
> > The fact that they denied the same pardon but a year ago makes it seem
> like
> > an empty gesture.  This is the government that drove one of the greatest
> > geniuses of our time to suicide by STERILIZING him...
> >
> >
>
> Earlier governments did much worse than that.
> Heretics and witches were tortured and burnt at the stake. Capital
> punishment was common. Slavery was normal.
> The Royal Pardoner will be very busy if all earlier wrongs are to be
> righted (by our current standards).
>
> This is likely to be a permanent job as future generations will
> probably want to pardon a lot of the things we do nowadays.
>
>
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
OLVIDATE.DE
Tatachan.com
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131226/985b59ea/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Thu Dec 26 09:36:46 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2013 09:36:46 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Royal Pardon for Alan Turing
In-Reply-To: <CANSO=1=G5y3VEkv1Y9TrmbUSxMJfpdp10WHxKAE9BBnurGWzQA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <Pine.SOC.4.64.1312240025100.13424@sarah.ssec.wisc.edu>
 <CAKrqSyFu5YzWTv-ag9JzH+TEFMSPfAa-QnYWQAA8JX7A1CTE7A@mail.gmail.com>
 <52B9634A.8070900@aleph.se> <00ef01cf00ca$47526650$d5f732f0$@att.net>
 <52B9C92A.9020000@aleph.se>
 <CAKrqSyFPVV_8n9K6dfpWvpBmzPSSfMjO+2iCAq9uptFDCV4hBQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armiNwr9-dLhPXZW8R=AKkGwRr51GD30y3S83vgbLxxozhQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CANSO=1=G5y3VEkv1Y9TrmbUSxMJfpdp10WHxKAE9BBnurGWzQA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52BBF8AE.4070200@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-26 01:05, Eugenio Mart?nez wrote:
> I think that the important question is: Do Alan Turing pardon the Queen?

That was the point made last year by Martin Robbins, 
http://www.theguardian.com/science/the-lay-scientist/2012/dec/14/gay-rights-alan-turing?intcmp=239
Not really possible, but as I argue in
http://blog.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk/2013/12/tis-the-season-of-pardons/
there is a degree of mutual reciprocity going on here. In a sense 
society at large and sexual minorities are engaged in a case of partial 
apology/gratitude that is actually a good thing, even if the Turing 
pardon per se is pretty problematic.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com  Thu Dec 26 12:26:21 2013
From: cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com (Henrique Moraes Machado)
Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2013 10:26:21 -0200
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
Message-ID: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>

The other day I was watching an episode of Dara O'Briain's Science Club on
BBC (I don't know original air date, but since BBC HD usually reruns
everything I'll assume it's from last year) and there was Anders Sandberg
himself discussing the issue. Since I don't see this topic being discussed
frequently on this list, I'd like to ask Anders (and others) about your
experiences (if any) on the subject.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131226/90369b8d/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Thu Dec 26 14:02:17 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2013 14:02:17 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-26 12:26, Henrique Moraes Machado wrote:
>
> The other day I was watching an episode of Dara O'Briain's Science 
> Club on BBC (I don't know original air date, but since BBC HD usually 
> reruns everything I'll assume it's from last year) and there was 
> Anders Sandberg himself discussing the issue. Since I don't see this 
> topic being discussed frequently on this list, I'd like to ask Anders 
> (and others) about your experiences (if any) on the subject.
>

I regularly use modafinil when I need an extra mental edge or to lower 
my task activation threshold. It is useful, but a bit like having had a 
good cup of coffee all day - it is by no means the drug from Limitless. 
Individual effects vary quite a lot too: your normal level of arousal 
and mood matters.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131226/23a00276/attachment.html>

From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Thu Dec 26 14:28:56 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2013 09:28:56 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFh7r6mLbVcw3uca+wxUMYsVqAROvGd1sHaP4_eoK=UZzA@mail.gmail.com>

Anybody using donepezil? I am thinking about using it again,
previously it gave me very entertaining dreams, although I did not
have any subjective feeling of improved cognitive performance. Still,
with the research reports showing a reduced all-cause mortality in
treated patients, there may more reasons to take it.


From anders at aleph.se  Thu Dec 26 14:48:24 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2013 14:48:24 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFh7r6mLbVcw3uca+wxUMYsVqAROvGd1sHaP4_eoK=UZzA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
 <CAAc1gFh7r6mLbVcw3uca+wxUMYsVqAROvGd1sHaP4_eoK=UZzA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52BC41B8.4000504@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-26 14:28, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> Anybody using donepezil? I am thinking about using it again,
> previously it gave me very entertaining dreams, although I did not
> have any subjective feeling of improved cognitive performance. Still,
> with the research reports showing a reduced all-cause mortality in
> treated patients, there may more reasons to take it.

Subjective feelings are treacherous; they don't give good evidence for 
cognitive enhancement but they certainly *feel* like they give evidence. 
I think one should try to run some tests (in this case, memory tests) to 
actually check what works - especially since individual variations of 
neurotransmitter levels make efficacies very variable.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From spike66 at att.net  Thu Dec 26 17:17:34 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2013 09:17:34 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <52BC41B8.4000504@aleph.se>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
 <CAAc1gFh7r6mLbVcw3uca+wxUMYsVqAROvGd1sHaP4_eoK=UZzA@mail.gmail.com>
 <52BC41B8.4000504@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <00dd01cf025e$5ee549a0$1cafdce0$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Subject: Re: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders

On 2013-12-26 14:28, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>>... Anybody using donepezil? I am thinking about using it again...

>...Subjective feelings are treacherous...I think one should try to run some
tests (in this case, memory tests) to actually check what works - especially
since individual variations of neurotransmitter levels make efficacies very
variable.
--
>...Dr Anders Sandberg...

Well said and I agree.  I have been thinking of subjective tests of mental
strength.  Regarding their use with nootropics, do let me preface this
comment with my stating up front that I know nothing about nootropics and do
not feel at ease with their use for myself.  I am OK with you hipsters doing
it however, especially the younger ones.  The younger body is far more
forgiving.  If you are using them, I have some ideas on how to measure their
efficacy.  

If you have time, speed chess on the tablet computer is a means of getting
an objective measurement.  You can get a baseline, record the clocks at the
end of the games, etc.  I have been thinking of a collection of these kinds
of tests, specifically those which measure speed of mental tests on a
touch-sensitive screen.  If we find something that works, I can imagine
contests with teams, one using and the other not.  We could really have some
fun with this, and even make a pile of money if we can use the competitions
as a sales device.

spike



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Thu Dec 26 17:36:33 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2013 12:36:33 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <52BC41B8.4000504@aleph.se>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
 <CAAc1gFh7r6mLbVcw3uca+wxUMYsVqAROvGd1sHaP4_eoK=UZzA@mail.gmail.com>
 <52BC41B8.4000504@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFj0sLbyx0h9EpB_0mHz5H0wi8SL6GyJvezHUsrvASxvhQ@mail.gmail.com>

On 12/26/13, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> Subjective feelings are treacherous; they don't give good evidence for
> cognitive enhancement but they certainly *feel* like they give evidence.
> I think one should try to run some tests (in this case, memory tests) to
> actually check what works - especially since individual variations of
> neurotransmitter levels make efficacies very variable.

### Oh, absolutely, I would not take a drug just on the basis of
subjective feelings. However, donepezil was shown to improve cognition
measurably in normal middle aged men: Airline pilots were tested in a
flight simulator, then re-tested after taking donepezil, and there was
an objective improvement in their (already good) function.

The dreams, a well-known side effect of donepezil, were for me
amazing, it was like seeing insanely bizarre movies and remembering
them for days.

Rafal


From spike66 at att.net  Thu Dec 26 22:39:16 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2013 14:39:16 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFj0sLbyx0h9EpB_0mHz5H0wi8SL6GyJvezHUsrvASxvhQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
 <CAAc1gFh7r6mLbVcw3uca+wxUMYsVqAROvGd1sHaP4_eoK=UZzA@mail.gmail.com>
 <52BC41B8.4000504@aleph.se>
 <CAAc1gFj0sLbyx0h9EpB_0mHz5H0wi8SL6GyJvezHUsrvASxvhQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <012501cf028b$4f6d0c10$ee472430$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Rafal Smigrodzki

>...The dreams, a well-known side effect of donepezil, were for me amazing,
it was like seeing insanely bizarre movies and remembering them for
days...Rafal
_______________________________________________

That part sounds like a lotta fun.  If I did something like that, I would
write out the dreams as much as possible, or even try to sketch something.
That would be cool.  Or try to write a dream with the drug, then repeat the
experiment without, see if there is any kind of interesting use of language
or something.

spike



From sjatkins at mac.com  Fri Dec 27 00:45:40 2013
From: sjatkins at mac.com (Samantha Atkins)
Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2013 16:45:40 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>


On Dec 26, 2013, at 6:02 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2013-12-26 12:26, Henrique Moraes Machado wrote:
>> The other day I was watching an episode of Dara O?Briain?s Science Club on BBC (I don?t know original air date, but since BBC HD usually reruns everything I?ll assume it?s from last year) and there was Anders Sandberg himself discussing the issue. Since I don?t see this topic being discussed frequently on this list, I?d like to ask Anders (and others) about your experiences (if any) on the subject.
> 
> I regularly use modafinil when I need an extra mental edge or to lower my task activation threshold. It is useful, but a bit like having had a good cup of coffee all day - it is by no means the drug from Limitless. Individual effects vary quite a lot too: your normal level of arousal and mood matters.


I have found much the same. I also notice a slight tendency of mental stickiness that is not so good if you get stuck on something suboptimal.   It is easy to burn a lot of mental energy on something that doesn't actually increase the things I value.   But I can hardly blame the drug for that since such has been true my entire life.  :)   But modafinil seems to be a bit of an accelerant for that.

- samantha

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131226/55a75a59/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Fri Dec 27 00:50:24 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2013 16:50:24 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se> <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
Message-ID: <006001cf029d$a198cb20$e4ca6160$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Samantha Atkins
Sent: Thursday, December 26, 2013 4:46 PM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders

 

>.I have found much the same. I also notice a slight tendency of mental
stickiness that is not so good if you get stuck on something suboptimal.
It is easy to burn a lot of mental energy on something that doesn't actually
increase the things I value.   But I can hardly blame the drug for that
since such has been true my entire life.  :)   But modafinil seems to be a
bit of an accelerant for that.- Samantha

 

Samantha!  It's been so long since we heard from you we were worried.
Welcome back, don't stay away so long, ja?  {8-]

 

This information on these various medications is good to know.  For me
nootropics are like that whips and chains business that is so popular these
days: I don't do it myself, but would watch if someone who knows what they
are doing takes part in it, take notes, try to help figure out what works.

 

spike

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131226/851fbbe6/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Fri Dec 27 09:35:45 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 09:35:45 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se> <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
Message-ID: <52BD49F1.7020302@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-27 00:45, Samantha Atkins wrote:
>
> I also notice a slight tendency of mental stickiness that is not so 
> good if you get stuck on something suboptimal.   It is easy to burn a 
> lot of mental energy on something that doesn't actually increase the 
> things I value.   But I can hardly blame the drug for that since such 
> has been true my entire life.  :) But modafinil seems to be a bit of 
> an accelerant for that.

The stickiness is exactly what I like: while I have wasted mornings 
correcting People Who Are Wrong On The Internet or doing elaborate 
simulations of obscure physics, it also helps me finish projects and 
writing I would otherwise get distracted from. I doubt I fulfil any 
clinical criteria for ADHD, but the normal human flightiness - 
especially if you are creative and interested in plenty - is something 
that it is useful to sometimes temporarily tune down.

I usually explain to students that smart drugs do not make you better at 
time management. Or give you any new information.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131227/9c5a85c7/attachment.html>

From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Dec 27 10:40:36 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 10:40:36 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <52BD49F1.7020302@aleph.se>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
 <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <52BD49F1.7020302@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhFEjM=BA9k9+1vsKCZLhtV6ygB1YxGB_SS6Uc0+WkXZg@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Dec 27, 2013 at 9:35 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> The stickiness is exactly what I like: while I have wasted mornings
> correcting People Who Are Wrong On The Internet or doing elaborate
> simulations of obscure physics, it also helps me finish projects and writing
> I would otherwise get distracted from. I doubt I fulfil any clinical
> criteria for ADHD, but the normal human flightiness - especially if you are
> creative and interested in plenty - is something that it is useful to
> sometimes temporarily tune down.
>
> I usually explain to students that smart drugs do not make you better at
> time management. Or give you any new information.
>
>

You mean I can't take a tablet and change into a combination of
Superman and Jesus??????
Well, who'd ave believed it!   ;)

It seems obvious that if you enhance your brain processor then you
will enhance all the bad features as well as the good features. How do
you make yourself twice as intelligent, but only think good thoughts?

Luckily I am almost perfect already. I just have a few teensy weensy
peccadilloes to worry about.
(I keep them in a hutch in the back yard, but they don't upset the
neighbours).  :)


BillK


From anders at aleph.se  Fri Dec 27 11:40:20 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 11:40:20 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhFEjM=BA9k9+1vsKCZLhtV6ygB1YxGB_SS6Uc0+WkXZg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se> <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <52BD49F1.7020302@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armhFEjM=BA9k9+1vsKCZLhtV6ygB1YxGB_SS6Uc0+WkXZg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52BD6724.6080608@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-27 10:40, BillK wrote:
> It seems obvious that if you enhance your brain processor then you 
> will enhance all the bad features as well as the good features. 

That is not obvious at all. Most neuropharmacology is about changing 
trade-offs between different modes of function: focused attention is 
good for some things but not others, but it is (usually) separate from 
your mood. In practice real drugs have combination effects that do not 
neatly fit the tasks or faculties (boosting your awakeness by stimulants 
will also up your noradrenergic levels, perhaps changing your mood if 
your mood structure is sensitive to it, but also make you more 
stimulus-response driven).

There is often a bottleneck that is the key limitation: your working 
memory, your motivation, your knowledge base, some stupid assumptions. 
Fixing that has the biggest enhancing effects, fixing something else 
will rarely matter.

> How do you make yourself twice as intelligent, but only think good 
> thoughts?

Well, if you are smarter you might understand what you need to do in 
order to be nicer. You might still not *care* to be nicer, but you are 
better poised to think about it.

(Insert rant about why "twice as intelligence" has no meaning, see past 
posts on that)

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From anders at aleph.se  Fri Dec 27 12:06:56 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 12:06:56 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <006001cf029d$a198cb20$e4ca6160$@att.net>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se> <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <006001cf029d$a198cb20$e4ca6160$@att.net>
Message-ID: <52BD6D60.1090705@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-27 00:50, spike wrote:
>
> This information on these various medications is good to know.  For me 
> nootropics are like that whips and chains business that is so popular 
> these days: I don't do it myself, but would watch if someone who knows 
> what they are doing takes part in it, take notes, try to help figure 
> out what works.
>

Hehehe... kinky neurochemistry.

"Please, modafinil is *so* vanilla! I like to tie up my cerebrum with 
some glycine receptor blocker, and then I do zazen meditation to 
repeatedly whack out my reticular nucleus attention system. Take that, 
gap junctions!" :-)

Of course, some kinds of coffee are already close to whips and chains - 
looks at his very black cup...

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131227/e2fa141d/attachment.html>

From cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com  Fri Dec 27 12:12:54 2013
From: cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com (Henrique Moraes Machado)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 10:12:54 -0200
Subject: [ExI] RES:  Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <008701cf02fc$fa307e90$ee917bb0$@gmail.com>



<AS>
I regularly use modafinil when I need an extra mental edge or to lower my
task activation threshold. It is useful, but a bit like having had a good
cup of coffee all day - it is by no means the drug from Limitless.
Individual effects vary quite a lot too: your normal level of arousal and
mood matters.
</AS>


Thank you for that.
Oh shite. I just found out that I can't buy modafinil because it's a
controlled prescription med. It needs a special prescription from a
psychiatrist. I'll try to find some way to import it. And by importing I
actually mean smuggling.




From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Dec 27 15:00:21 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 10:00:21 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Fwd: [tt] The Habitable Epoch of the Early Universe
In-Reply-To: <52AA4721.7060701@aleph.se>
References: <20131210164653.GY10793@leitl.org>
 <CAAc1gFhLKOrbtnck0tGEDXZ6dKrdJev69mH1peMYi6Pz7UboXw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52A9B0AA.8000303@aleph.se> <20131212132249.GI10793@leitl.org>
 <52A9C490.9030506@aleph.se> <20131212144722.GJ10793@leitl.org>
 <52AA4721.7060701@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFiN7kAdz68sORDXNYxmnWBrPdcmVxuvVZU7p9zNPfOGZw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 6:30 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
>
>
> Yes, but I was not talking about your judgement of your situation in that sentence. Merely about the fact that in the generic case (it is always possible to construct contrived counterexamples) anomalous observers are going to be the minority compared to non-anomalous observers.


### So, I reacquainted myself with the Sleeping Beauty, and I am
decisively on the thirder position. No ifs ands or buts there - the
problem is clearly stated, no ambiguities are present. But, once we
start using terms like "possible" vs. "actual", things start being
very murky. As David Deutsch would say, these terms are very
theory-laden. Somehow it is difficult for me to make a clear
connection between the definitions of SSA/SIA and reasoning about the
physical world. Now I really don't know if the landscape is less or
more likely and how does SSA vs. SIA relate there - would you be able
to expand on your reasoning behind "SSA would weaken the fine tuning
of cosmological constant" but SIA maybe not?

I tend to think there is vanishingly little to be derived from mere
existence - almost all of our knowledge and beliefs come from our
interpretation of the *details* of our existence, which determine our
notions of possibility and actuality.

Imagine two variations on Sleeping Beauty - the Calendar Beauty and
the Ignorant Beauty. Calendar Beauty can look at a calendar, and knows
whether it's Monday or Tuesday. Ignorant Beauty does not know about
the experiment at all, if asked "What is the likelihood of heads?" she
says "What are heads?".

Calendar Beauty changes her reference class (if I understand it
correctly) by looking at the calendar, and can give at least some
definite answers (if Tuesday - tails). Ignorant Beauty has no basis
for an answer at all - the total absence of information is equivalent
to having no prior and no logically valid procedure for producing any
answers.

Attempts to use anthropic reasoning to put constraints on the
generation of physical explanatory and predictive theories are like
trying to trying to use "Cogito ergo sum" to advance quantum mechanics
- all the real knowledge comes from the physics/math part and the
anthropic part merely comes for a ride. We are like the Ignorant
Beauty painstakingly deciphering cryptic notes found by the bedside
and building an image of the whole situation, with the awareness of
existence playing almost no role in generating correct answers (aside
from the trivial "We are here because it is possible to be here").

Rafal



From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Dec 27 15:19:15 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 15:19:15 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <52BD6724.6080608@aleph.se>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
 <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <52BD49F1.7020302@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armhFEjM=BA9k9+1vsKCZLhtV6ygB1YxGB_SS6Uc0+WkXZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <52BD6724.6080608@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjxbV9dTCmvLEKRvh+vs78hoRUHjRhrdhmXy77WCoJhrg@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Dec 27, 2013 at 11:40 AM, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
> That is not obvious at all. Most neuropharmacology is about changing
> trade-offs between different modes of function: focused attention is good
> for some things but not others, but it is (usually) separate from your mood.
> In practice real drugs have combination effects that do not neatly fit the
> tasks or faculties (boosting your awakeness by stimulants will also up your
> noradrenergic levels, perhaps changing your mood if your mood structure is
> sensitive to it, but also make you more stimulus-response driven).
>
> There is often a bottleneck that is the key limitation: your working memory,
> your motivation, your knowledge base, some stupid assumptions. Fixing that
> has the biggest enhancing effects, fixing something else will rarely matter.
>
>
> if you are smarter you might understand what you need to do in order
> to be nicer. You might still not *care* to be nicer, but you are better
> poised to think about it.
>


Well, yes, if you extend the range of drugs to include everything, not
just (possible) intelligence enhancing drugs, then stuff like Oxytocin
will make you love everybody. (Should it be added to the water
supply?).

My point was that twice as smart doesn't make you twice as nice. It
enhances your processing to enable you to do more of whatever you were
like before. It might well enable you to do nasty stuff that you
didn't think you could get away with before.

The other main disadvantage to being made twice as smart is that very
smart people are often contemptuous of lesser intelligences. We see
this already in the finance industry elite. They see 'normal' people
as there to be robbed and swindled. All the top university graduates
that go to work in finance (because the salaries are better) don't
necessarily go there with the intention to swindle everybody. But peer
pressure makes them join in, because the game gives them such big
rewards with little downside. (They never see the ruined lives they
cause - just the millionaire lifestyle they have).


BillK


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Dec 27 16:34:43 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 11:34:43 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjxbV9dTCmvLEKRvh+vs78hoRUHjRhrdhmXy77WCoJhrg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
 <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <52BD49F1.7020302@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armhFEjM=BA9k9+1vsKCZLhtV6ygB1YxGB_SS6Uc0+WkXZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <52BD6724.6080608@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjxbV9dTCmvLEKRvh+vs78hoRUHjRhrdhmXy77WCoJhrg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFj3Tx3fWMyAs+WM=3U9t8yZG7Urud7-r3hcNeBKysouog@mail.gmail.com>

On 12/27/13, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> The other main disadvantage to being made twice as smart is that very
> smart people are often contemptuous of lesser intelligences.

### Are you implying that there is a positive correlation between high
intelligence and contempt for humanity?

------------------

 We see
> this already in the finance industry elite. They see 'normal' people
> as there to be robbed and swindled. All the top university graduates
> that go to work in finance (because the salaries are better) don't
> necessarily go there with the intention to swindle everybody. But peer
> pressure makes them join in, because the game gives them such big
> rewards with little downside. (They never see the ruined lives they
> cause - just the millionaire lifestyle they have).

### Some people seem to have a lot of contempt for bankers but an
amazing willingness to give politicians a pass. Wonder why.

Rafal


From spike66 at att.net  Fri Dec 27 17:12:48 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 09:12:48 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhFEjM=BA9k9+1vsKCZLhtV6ygB1YxGB_SS6Uc0+WkXZg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se> <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <52BD49F1.7020302@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armhFEjM=BA9k9+1vsKCZLhtV6ygB1YxGB_SS6Uc0+WkXZg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <016e01cf0326$de86a3c0$9b93eb40$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
>
>>... I usually explain to students that smart drugs do not make you better 
> at time management. Or give you any new information. Anders
>
>

>...You mean I can't take a tablet and change into a combination of Superman
and Jesus??????  BillK
_______________________________________________

I am already a combination of Superman and Jesus:  I can walk on steel.

spike



From spike66 at att.net  Fri Dec 27 17:25:31 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 09:25:31 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <52BD6D60.1090705@aleph.se>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se> <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <006001cf029d$a198cb20$e4ca6160$@att.net> <52BD6D60.1090705@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <016f01cf0328$a56b1fb0$f0415f10$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Sent: Friday, December 27, 2013 4:07 AM
To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
Subject: Re: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders

 

On 2013-12-27 00:50, spike wrote:

 

This information on these various medications is good to know...


>.Hehehe... kinky neurochemistry.

>."Please, modafinil is *so* vanilla! I like to tie up my cerebrum with some
glycine receptor blocker, and then I do zazen meditation to repeatedly whack
out my reticular nucleus attention system. Take that, gap junctions!" :-)

>.Of course, some kinds of coffee are already close to whips and chains -
looks at his very black cup...

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
 
 
 
We need some kind of objective measure of mental accuracy and activity, even
if it doesn't compare one person with another, but rather only comparing the
same person from various times.
 
Many of us here have astonished ourselves at how variable is our creative
skills.  There are days in which I have thought up several cool ideas.
Other times long spans of time pass between innovative notions.  There are
other variations, such as doing something so stupid we amaze even ourselves.
An example would be one of my recent blockhead maneuvers: picking up a
coffee cup without noticing it was upside down, then pouring in the coffee,
with predictable results.  I thought I checked it, but that time I just blew
it.
 
Being a chess player, I have the option of speed chess on the tablet
computer.  I can record results in several games and the times on both
clocks, which is better than nothing as an objective measure of mental
activity.  One problem I can imagine is that there are different kinds of
intelligence.  The day I was doing extremely well with the chess program was
the same day I poured hot coffee all over the damn place with the upside
down cup.
 
spike
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131227/5cfa95c6/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Fri Dec 27 17:52:59 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 09:52:59 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFj3Tx3fWMyAs+WM=3U9t8yZG7Urud7-r3hcNeBKysouog@mail.gmail.com>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se> <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <52BD49F1.7020302@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armhFEjM=BA9k9+1vsKCZLhtV6ygB1YxGB_SS6Uc0+WkXZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <52BD6724.6080608@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjxbV9dTCmvLEKRvh+vs78hoRUHjRhrdhmXy77WCoJhrg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj3Tx3fWMyAs+WM=3U9t8yZG7Urud7-r3hcNeBKysouog@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <018701cf032c$7bd84890$7388d9b0$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of Rafal Smigrodzki
Subject: Re: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders

On 12/27/13, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> The other main disadvantage to being made twice as smart is that very 
> smart people are often contemptuous of lesser intelligences.

### Are you implying that there is a positive correlation between high
intelligence and contempt for humanity?

------------------

>>... this already in the finance industry elite. ... (They never see the
ruined lives they 
> cause - just the millionaire lifestyle they have).

### Some people seem to have a lot of contempt for bankers but an amazing
willingness to give politicians a pass. Wonder why.

Rafal
_______________________________________________

Oy vey yes.  What a stunning contrast we see in the case of 23andMe vs the
Affordable Care Act.  23 made some very modest reasonable claims with
insufficient proof, they end up in civil court facing false advertising
claims.  The politicians sold the ACA using enormous blatant black-hearted
lies, with no adverse consequences.  All we get is a tepid apology, and that
is supposed to make it all go away?  Why do we hold CEOs to such rigid
standards but politicians get a free ride?  Why don't they need to be
reminded of the millions of ruined lives their lies have left in their
still-churning wake?

spike



From rex at nosyntax.net  Fri Dec 27 17:56:36 2013
From: rex at nosyntax.net (rex)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 09:56:36 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <016e01cf0326$de86a3c0$9b93eb40$@att.net>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
 <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <52BD49F1.7020302@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armhFEjM=BA9k9+1vsKCZLhtV6ygB1YxGB_SS6Uc0+WkXZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <016e01cf0326$de86a3c0$9b93eb40$@att.net>
Message-ID: <20131227175636.GC24275@ninja.nosyntax.net>

spike <spike66 at att.net> [2013-12-27 09:33]:
>
>>... On Behalf Of BillK
>Subject: Re: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
>>...You mean I can't take a tablet and change into a combination of Superman
>and Jesus??????  BillK
>_______________________________________________
>
>I am already a combination of Superman and Jesus:  I can walk on steel.

I can walk on water, but on alcohol I tend to stagger.


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Dec 27 19:28:38 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 14:28:38 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <016e01cf0326$de86a3c0$9b93eb40$@att.net>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
 <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <52BD49F1.7020302@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armhFEjM=BA9k9+1vsKCZLhtV6ygB1YxGB_SS6Uc0+WkXZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <016e01cf0326$de86a3c0$9b93eb40$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFhcPOxSdTvu_VYf2XmK4+-QGFOuPhKSW8KxOaP7-J1JUg@mail.gmail.com>

On 12/27/13, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> I am already a combination of Superman and Jesus:  I can walk on steel.

### Spike, you are super: As I just verified, the above is a
completely new and genuinely original joke, completely unknown to
Google :)

Rafal


From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Dec 27 20:46:12 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 12:46:12 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <016e01cf0326$de86a3c0$9b93eb40$@att.net>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
 <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <52BD49F1.7020302@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armhFEjM=BA9k9+1vsKCZLhtV6ygB1YxGB_SS6Uc0+WkXZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <016e01cf0326$de86a3c0$9b93eb40$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQnThPG0a4SgeLZgtra74+W1aXmP8sTQpaE30hkc-=u-g@mail.gmail.com>

On Dec 27, 2013 9:28 AM, "spike" <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> I am already a combination of Superman and Jesus:  I can walk on steel.

I'd lay odds that you are also a man of water.  Over 50%, anyway, which
counts.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131227/d2552bd6/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Sat Dec 28 00:17:09 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2013 00:17:09 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjxbV9dTCmvLEKRvh+vs78hoRUHjRhrdhmXy77WCoJhrg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se> <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <52BD49F1.7020302@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armhFEjM=BA9k9+1vsKCZLhtV6ygB1YxGB_SS6Uc0+WkXZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <52BD6724.6080608@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjxbV9dTCmvLEKRvh+vs78hoRUHjRhrdhmXy77WCoJhrg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52BE1885.5070304@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-27 15:19, BillK wrote:
> On Fri, Dec 27, 2013 at 11:40 AM, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
>> if you are smarter you might understand what you need to do in order
>> to be nicer. You might still not *care* to be nicer, but you are better
>> poised to think about it.
> Well, yes, if you extend the range of drugs to include everything, not
> just (possible) intelligence enhancing drugs, then stuff like Oxytocin
> will make you love everybody. (Should it be added to the water
> supply?).
Actually, it doesn't (and it gets broken down if ingested orally). Most 
intriguingly, there is some evidence it makes the cohesion and niceness 
within one's own group stronger and out-groups are treated worse. 
Niceness is complex. But there are likely other drugs that does make you 
more altruistic, empathy-seeking etc. MDMA derivatives, perhaps.

> The other main disadvantage to being made twice as smart is that very
> smart people are often contemptuous of lesser intelligences.

Evidence for this? I see a lot of dumb people with contempt for others 
too. I was recently contemptuously told I was stupid by a person of 
less-than-average intelligence because I was not pursuing money with all 
my might.

I have seen proper studies finding smarter people being more cooperative 
in economic games and teamwork. Not evidence for niceness, but at least 
enlightened self-interest.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From anders at aleph.se  Sat Dec 28 00:20:42 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2013 00:20:42 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <016f01cf0328$a56b1fb0$f0415f10$@att.net>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se> <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <006001cf029d$a198cb20$e4ca6160$@att.net> <52BD6D60.1090705@aleph.se>
 <016f01cf0328$a56b1fb0$f0415f10$@att.net>
Message-ID: <52BE195A.8070403@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-27 17:25, spike wrote:
>
> We need some kind of objective measure of mental accuracy and activity, even if it doesn't compare one person with another, but rather only comparing the same person from various times.

Yes, this would be really useful. I can certainly see the difference in 
how I play Alpha Centauri: tiredness reduces performance a lot, a bit of 
alcohol disinhibition makes the game sloppy but effective, mental 
sharpness leads to detailed and exact plans, and so on. But it is hard 
to measure objectively.

Are there any good web-based test suites?


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131228/fcc5eb6b/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Sat Dec 28 05:00:12 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 2013 21:00:12 -0800
Subject: [ExI] wheelchair driving drunk, was:  RE:  Nootropics and Anders
Message-ID: <007101cf0389$b1be5f00$153b1d00$@att.net>

>...On Behalf Of Rafal Smigrodzki
Subject: Re: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders

On 12/27/13, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> I am already a combination of Superman and Jesus:  I can walk on steel.

### Spike, you are super: As I just verified, the above is a completely new
and genuinely original joke, completely unknown to Google :)

Rafal
_______________________________________________


Rafal you are far too kind sir.  My gag was a logical extension of an
innovative comment by I think BillK about nootropics making one a
combination of Jesus and Superman.  That one made me laugh.  Of all the
sites I have hung out on the internet over the years, ExI is filled with the
most innovative materials.

Regarding information and innovation, I have a topic which is I think
original to bounce off of you, with comments most welcome, considering your
being a doctor.  Imagine a memory care unit, filled with people who can do
nothing but experience the moment, no effective storage mechanisms still
functioning in the brain.  Many if not most of these people are in a lot of
pain, nearly all are bored and lonely.  It really isn't much of a life at
all.  I was there visiting just today.  It is the counterpart of Disneyland:
it is the saddest place on earth.

Many of the patients cannot really walk safely, so they are in a wheelchair,
not really paralyzed but there they are.  Nothing to do ever, no one to talk
to that isn't in the same situation; the staff members are too busy to chat.
There are few visitors.

It occurred to me today we could rig up a device that would allow them to
drink alcohol in such a way that their BAC could be maintained at .15 to .18
range, way too impaired to drive but conscious, feeling no pain etc.  We
could make a breath analyzer which would deliver a mixture of alcohol and
water to maintain hydration but giving them plenty of alcohol, automatically
mixing it stronger as they sober up, then watering it down as they get more
drunk, etc.  It might motivate them to drink more water, so it might
actually extend their lives, but even if it doesn't, seems it would surely
make their declining days more pleasant.

If a person was a non-drinker or a very light drinker all their lives, then
took up heavy drinking right at the goal line, seems like their liver would
have plenty of miles left on it once the brain was mostly defunct, so they
might as well have some fun.  Rafal, would a healthy liver in an 80 yr old
be able to take on a steady stream of alcohol for a few yrs?

It would only apply to those who are wheelchair-bound, who have Alzheimers,
who don't really need to sober up for visitors very often.

I even came up with an idea for how to deal with their bottom end: we could
create a wheelchair with a waste receptacle below and a means of wicking the
moisture away from the skin.

Seems like there should be companies somewhere working on stuff like this,
or venture capitalists working on it somewhere.  I need to get with those
people, but even more, I need to find some nursing home patients who are
willing and eager to spend the last part of their lives experimenting with
innovative devices such as an automated alcohol delivery system rigged up
with a wheelchair.

spike  







From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Dec 28 11:32:05 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2013 11:32:05 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <52BE1885.5070304@aleph.se>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se>
 <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <52BD49F1.7020302@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armhFEjM=BA9k9+1vsKCZLhtV6ygB1YxGB_SS6Uc0+WkXZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <52BD6724.6080608@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjxbV9dTCmvLEKRvh+vs78hoRUHjRhrdhmXy77WCoJhrg@mail.gmail.com>
 <52BE1885.5070304@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armh5Hg2W3dVhJYjkQACZ+OePsmOByMMnRoEUEnt_jU_Yzg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Dec 28, 2013 at 12:17 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> Evidence for this? I see a lot of dumb people with contempt for others too.
> I was recently contemptuously told I was stupid by a person of
> less-than-average intelligence because I was not pursuing money with all my
> might.
>
> I have seen proper studies finding smarter people being more cooperative in
> economic games and teamwork. Not evidence for niceness, but at least
> enlightened self-interest.
>
>

My initial reaction was that sociopaths have above average IQ.  They
don't have a conscience or emotional involvement so they need a higher
IQ because they have to work harder to survive in society. But on
reflection, I think that is probably a myth.

Sociopaths have the same IQ spread as the rest of the population.  But
the sociopaths we *notice* are the high IQ successful group. Those who
can't cope with society end up homeless or in jail.

So successful high IQ sociopaths cause more trouble for society
because they are using their higher IQ to manipulate people and
systems for their own advantage. The more normal high IQ people get
pushed aside or occupy themselves with interesting careers and hobbies
leaving the coast clear for the sociopaths to take over politics,
finance, corporations, etc.

I suspect that many of the charming charismatic politicians and
corporate leaders that Anders consults with are actually sociopaths
looking for the best way to increase their own power and influence.
Until you see them in action it is hard to appreciate just how good at
manipulation these higher IQ sociopaths are. You find yourself
*wanting* to help and assist them in their schemes.


BillK


BillK


From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Sat Dec 28 17:22:57 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan Ust)
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2013 09:22:57 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Reading good for brain?
Message-ID: <F0F209D0-49E0-4FF8-8BE6-040E1640527A@yahoo.com>

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/brain-function-boosted-for-days-after-reading-a-novel-9028302.html

Sounds like they need to do a bit more here to back the title of the article. My immediate question was, "What's a good novel?" Would reading something by Clive Cussler be better, by this test, than something by James Joyce?

Regards,

Dan
 See my #Kindle "books" at:
http://www.amazon.com/s?ie=UTF8&field-author=Dan%20Ust&page=1&rh=n%3A133140011%2Cp_27%3ADan%20Ust
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131228/135faac9/attachment.html>

From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Dec 28 17:45:29 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2013 17:45:29 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Reading good for brain?
In-Reply-To: <F0F209D0-49E0-4FF8-8BE6-040E1640527A@yahoo.com>
References: <F0F209D0-49E0-4FF8-8BE6-040E1640527A@yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgnrTpav_a2pHNs_2aGL-+cV2JXqJcmrZ89kjSYaaeFow@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Dec 28, 2013 at 5:22 PM, Dan Ust  wrote:
> http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/brain-function-boosted-for-days-after-reading-a-novel-9028302.html
>
> Sounds like they need to do a bit more here to back the title of the
> article. My immediate question was, "What's a good novel?" Would reading
> something by Clive Cussler be better, by this test, than something by James
> Joyce?
>
>

If reading does cause brain changes as they claim they found, this
means that Spike's testing for brain improvements while taking
nootropics needs to control for other things that might be causing
brain changes at the same time.


BillK


From kryonica at gmail.com  Sat Dec 28 17:48:08 2013
From: kryonica at gmail.com (Cryonica)
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2013 17:48:08 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Reading good for brain?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgnrTpav_a2pHNs_2aGL-+cV2JXqJcmrZ89kjSYaaeFow@mail.gmail.com>
References: <F0F209D0-49E0-4FF8-8BE6-040E1640527A@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armgnrTpav_a2pHNs_2aGL-+cV2JXqJcmrZ89kjSYaaeFow@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5FFF5F84-EE0C-4B35-82AF-A82FD08D4200@gmail.com>

It would be interesting to see if this applies to audiobooks as well, and also how does reading stories compare to reading non-fiction.
On 28 Dec 2013, at 17:45, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sat, Dec 28, 2013 at 5:22 PM, Dan Ust  wrote:
>> http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/brain-function-boosted-for-days-after-reading-a-novel-9028302.html
>> 
>> Sounds like they need to do a bit more here to back the title of the
>> article. My immediate question was, "What's a good novel?" Would reading
>> something by Clive Cussler be better, by this test, than something by James
>> Joyce?
>> 
>> 
> 
> If reading does cause brain changes as they claim they found, this
> means that Spike's testing for brain improvements while taking
> nootropics needs to control for other things that might be causing
> brain changes at the same time.
> 
> 
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

Cryonica
kryonica at gmail.com



-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131228/8e031dd1/attachment.html>

From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Sat Dec 28 18:31:30 2013
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan Ust)
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2013 10:31:30 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Reading good for brain?
In-Reply-To: <5FFF5F84-EE0C-4B35-82AF-A82FD08D4200@gmail.com>
References: <F0F209D0-49E0-4FF8-8BE6-040E1640527A@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armgnrTpav_a2pHNs_2aGL-+cV2JXqJcmrZ89kjSYaaeFow@mail.gmail.com>
 <5FFF5F84-EE0C-4B35-82AF-A82FD08D4200@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <81227418-18E7-4F83-88C3-F9F52A5DE3EA@yahoo.com>

Agreed. I listen to many audiobooks a year and think the changes must be different given lower recall in some cases, but that could be because I'm usually not sitting still otherwise unoccupied whilst listening, but doing things like walking.

Regards,

Dan
 See my #Kindle "books" at:
http://www.amazon.com/s?ie=UTF8&field-author=Dan%20Ust&page=1&rh=n%3A133140011%2Cp_27%3ADan%20Ust

> On Dec 28, 2013, at 9:48 AM, Cryonica <kryonica at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> It would be interesting to see if this applies to audiobooks as well, and also how does reading stories compare to reading non-fiction.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131228/bed9e874/attachment.html>

From spike66 at att.net  Sat Dec 28 19:38:25 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2013 11:38:25 -0800
Subject: [ExI] wheelchair driving drunk
Message-ID: <001201cf0404$60e20840$22a618c0$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of spike

>...Imagine a memory care unit...Many of the patients cannot really walk
safely, so they are in a wheelchair, not really paralyzed but there they
are.  Nothing to do ever, no one to talk to that isn't in the same
situation...It occurred to me today we could rig up a device that would
allow them to drink alcohol in such a way that their BAC could be maintained
at .15 to .18 range... I need to find some nursing home patients who are
willing and eager to spend the last part of their lives experimenting with
innovative devices such as an automated alcohol delivery system rigged up
with a wheelchair...spike  
_______________________________________________

I had some ideas regarding instrumentation for something like this.  We have
BAC testers, but these are way overkill.  They require the drunken sot to
blow into a device, but these require a lot of precision: the difference
between BAC = .07999 and .0800 is so great, many thousands of dollars, much
heartbreak and discontent, in some cases possibly prison.  What if we wanted
a BAC tester which made continuous readings but could tolerate 10 or even 20
percent error?  We could have a device that fits onto the collar for
instance.  

If such a device continually monitored the air around a patient's head, it
could be programmed to know the weight of the patient and could deliver
alcohol into a drinking water mechanism, so the patient would still have all
the failsafes provided by a bartender.  We could set up a kind of lead-lag
mechanism which would know how much alcohol it delivered and how much
water/alcohol mixture the patient devoured, so it would make continuous
calculations regarding what the BAC should be at any given time.  It could
have an independent failsafe mechanism such that if a BAC reading were to
change unexpectedly it would stop delivering alcohol.  It could limit the
maximum alcohol delivery to about 40 grams per hour, regardless of how low
the readings went.

Look at this from a different point of view: what if you are one who enjoyed
two glasses of wine per day on average for most of your life, and you end up
in a memory care unit.  Now they really can't allow you to drink much, since
they know that just one drunken fall can be fatal to a geezer.  So you enjoy
the comforts of alcohol all your life, but right at the end when you really
could use some chemical comfort, it isn't available.  Does that sound right
to you?  Doesn't to me either.  Prohibition went out in the 1930s.  We are
re-imposing it back on those who were born during those dark days.

spike



From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Dec 28 20:26:36 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2013 20:26:36 +0000
Subject: [ExI] wheelchair driving drunk
In-Reply-To: <001201cf0404$60e20840$22a618c0$@att.net>
References: <001201cf0404$60e20840$22a618c0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armggOiqdBXF=qx_Wec=RZ4tO2b1cZhvCUe+eH6EdG_kOng@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Dec 28, 2013 at 7:38 PM, spike wrote:
> Look at this from a different point of view: what if you are one who enjoyed
> two glasses of wine per day on average for most of your life, and you end up
> in a memory care unit.  Now they really can't allow you to drink much, since
> they know that just one drunken fall can be fatal to a geezer.  So you enjoy
> the comforts of alcohol all your life, but right at the end when you really
> could use some chemical comfort, it isn't available.  Does that sound right
> to you?  Doesn't to me either.  Prohibition went out in the 1930s.  We are
> re-imposing it back on those who were born during those dark days.
>
>

Spike, the docs will never accept alcohol transfusions for these patients.

They have drugs to treat pain and depression and anxiety. The usual
side-effect though is drowsiness, so patients end up being asleep for
most of the time. Patients should not be allowed to be in pain, though
if they are unable to communicate, it can be difficult to treat them
appropriately. As one cancer doctor said to me, when we are
considering pain relief as part of end-of-life care, then drug
addiction is not a problem. Pain can always be relieved.


BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Sat Dec 28 20:15:08 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2013 12:15:08 -0800
Subject: [ExI] wheelchair driving drunk
In-Reply-To: <001201cf0404$60e20840$22a618c0$@att.net>
References: <001201cf0404$60e20840$22a618c0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <001901cf0409$81e8ad00$85ba0700$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of spike
Subject: Re: [ExI] wheelchair driving drunk

>... On Behalf Of spike

>...Imagine a memory care unit...Many of the patients cannot really walk
safely, so they are in a wheelchair...  We could set up a kind of lead-lag
mechanism which would know how much alcohol it delivered and how much
water/alcohol mixture the patient devoured...spike

_______________________________________________

Now that I think about it, there is no reason to stop at alcohol.  There are
two other drugs which are legal, well-understood, cheap and makes most
people feel better always, for a total of exactly three:  caffeine, nicotine
and alcohol.  A feedback mechanism of some sort could introduce all three
into a drinking-water stream.  The nursing home cannot allow patients to
smoke; this isn't legal indoors in most states now, and in some states going
out doors is not an option.  Even then, for severely impaired patients, the
facility cannot assume the liability of their holding a burning cigarette
and cannot afford the staff to help them smoke.  They can't really even
allow them steaming hot coffee; the bad cases cannot handle cups.  So now,
all those patients who enjoyed smoking, drinking and coffee all their lives
are now mostly deprived of all three, and they haven't even done anything
illegal.  Does this seem right to you?

OK then, we can likely rig an alcohol delivery system complete with
feedback.  With the nicotine and caffeine, it isn't clear how you would set
up a feedback system, but we wouldn't need to do that: the system could know
the weight of the patient and could deliver the other two feels-good
chemicals at a pre-calculated concentration.  The system could monitor the
amount of water delivered, without requiring the patients to hold a glass or
cup, using a drinking tube vaguely analogous to that which is used for
racecar drivers in the 500.  That way, measurement inaccuracies because of
spillage wouldn't mess up the measurements.

Alcohol, nicotine, caffeine, anything else we can add to a drinking water
supply and deliver via a straw?  Vitamins?  Iron?  Calcium  fluoride?
Aspirin?  I know how to get all the above examples into a concentrated
water-soluble form which can be metered and added to a drinking water
stream.  

Doctors among us, is anyone working on stuff like this?  Why not?  Rafal, do
you have any buddies who specialize in geriatrics who might want to be an
amateur inventor, or work with one?  

spike

 



From spike66 at att.net  Sat Dec 28 20:52:22 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2013 12:52:22 -0800
Subject: [ExI] wheelchair driving drunk
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armggOiqdBXF=qx_Wec=RZ4tO2b1cZhvCUe+eH6EdG_kOng@mail.gmail.com>
References: <001201cf0404$60e20840$22a618c0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armggOiqdBXF=qx_Wec=RZ4tO2b1cZhvCUe+eH6EdG_kOng@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <003701cf040e$b5403150$1fc093f0$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
Sent: Saturday, December 28, 2013 12:27 PM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] wheelchair driving drunk

On Sat, Dec 28, 2013 at 7:38 PM, spike wrote:
>> ...  So you enjoy the comforts of alcohol all your life, but 
> right at the end when you really could use some chemical comfort, it 
> isn't available.  Does that sound right to you?  Doesn't to me either...
>
>

>...Spike, the docs will never accept alcohol transfusions for these
patients...

Oy, I was afraid of that: I didn't explain it right.  I didn't mean
transfusions or needles.  I meant the device would introduce alcohol into a
drinking tube, so the patient is still drinking.  It would vary the alcohol
content of the water stream, going to zero if the patient's BAC is around
.18 and up to about perhaps 10% for stone sober patients.  It would have to
be turned on to deliver any alcohol, by the patient.  Under these
circumstances, it seems a nursing home staffer could legally enable the
system without needing a doctor's supervision, but only for those three
feels-good chemicals, nicotine, caffeine and alcohol.


>...They have drugs to treat pain and depression and anxiety...

Ja, but these need a doctor's supervision which is costly and scarce.  And
the medications themselves are expensive.  The three stooges are cheap,
non-prescription, over the counter, well understood, and most of us have
used or do use two or all three.  You had your coffee today, ja?  I am on my
sixth cup.

>... Patients should not be allowed to be in pain...

Thanks for that BillK.  I can show you plenty of examples today, in real
time, of patients who are in a lot of pain every day, with no hope of
recovery ever, who have nada to lose, who could be comforted simply,
legally, cheaply, if we would get off our goddam asses and do it.  What are
we waiting for?  You and I will be in that situation in a few decades or
sooner.  What if we get there perhaps against our will, and these systems
STILL don't exist?  And even sooner than that, what about our parents?  They
comforted us when we were infants; don't we owe them this?

>...though if they are unable to communicate, it can be difficult to treat
them appropriately...

Ja.  Some of them can communicate by operating a switch that would enable
the device to introduce alcohol into the drinking tube.

>... As one cancer doctor said to me, when we are considering pain relief as
part of end-of-life care, then drug addiction is not a problem. Pain can
always be relieved...BillK
_______________________________________________

OK good, you and I are on the same page.  Where do we start?  Have we any
geriatrics docs who are willing to experiment?  spike 



From ablainey at aol.com  Sun Dec 29 02:21:33 2013
From: ablainey at aol.com (Alex Blainey)
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2013 21:21:33 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [ExI] wheelchair driving drunk
In-Reply-To: <001201cf0404$60e20840$22a618c0$@att.net>
References: <001201cf0404$60e20840$22a618c0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <8D0D253D3771F33-FC4-4F93F@webmail-d290.sysops.aol.com>


 

 

 

-----Original Message-----
From: spike <spike66 at att.net>


>If such a device continually monitored the air around a patient's head, itcould be programmed to know the weight of the patient and could deliveralcohol into a drinking water mechanism.......
> spike 


What about a catheter or trans-dermal bladder based measurement device? Possibly for delivery also. Its effectively part of the bloodstream as a fluid & nutrient buffer as well as a waste disposal storage point. Full of the alcohol byproducts from the liver and giving an indication of hydration I think it could be quite accurate. Would it get around issues of other devices getting false reading due to hydration level? (if that is an issue)
A

 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131228/2b491561/attachment.html>

From gjlewis37 at gmail.com  Sat Dec 28 20:40:04 2013
From: gjlewis37 at gmail.com (Gregory Lewis)
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2013 20:40:04 +0000
Subject: [ExI] wheelchair driving drunk
In-Reply-To: <001901cf0409$81e8ad00$85ba0700$@att.net>
References: <001201cf0404$60e20840$22a618c0$@att.net>
 <001901cf0409$81e8ad00$85ba0700$@att.net>
Message-ID: <52BF3724.1070902@gmail.com>

I'm a doctor. Pretty sure none of this is being contemplated by the 
medical profession, primarily because of the medical norm that 
nicotine/alcohol/etc. are bad things, and not the things one prescribes 
to one's patients. Also the related medical norm of the 
treatment/enhancement distinction: giving stuff to improve patients 
health is okay, as is stop disease negative effecting wellbeing - 
giving out drugs to make one feel happier is generally not deemed 
acceptable.

(There's also the generalized social fallout: "Evil nursing home drugs 
the elderly!" etc. etc.)

On 28 December 2013 20:15:08, spike wrote:
>> ... On Behalf Of spike
> Subject: Re: [ExI] wheelchair driving drunk
>
>> ... On Behalf Of spike
>
>> ...Imagine a memory care unit...Many of the patients cannot really walk
> safely, so they are in a wheelchair...  We could set up a kind of lead-lag
> mechanism which would know how much alcohol it delivered and how much
> water/alcohol mixture the patient devoured...spike
>
> _______________________________________________
>
> Now that I think about it, there is no reason to stop at alcohol.  There are
> two other drugs which are legal, well-understood, cheap and makes most
> people feel better always, for a total of exactly three:  caffeine, nicotine
> and alcohol.  A feedback mechanism of some sort could introduce all three
> into a drinking-water stream.  The nursing home cannot allow patients to
> smoke; this isn't legal indoors in most states now, and in some states going
> out doors is not an option.  Even then, for severely impaired patients, the
> facility cannot assume the liability of their holding a burning cigarette
> and cannot afford the staff to help them smoke.  They can't really even
> allow them steaming hot coffee; the bad cases cannot handle cups.  So now,
> all those patients who enjoyed smoking, drinking and coffee all their lives
> are now mostly deprived of all three, and they haven't even done anything
> illegal.  Does this seem right to you?
>
> OK then, we can likely rig an alcohol delivery system complete with
> feedback.  With the nicotine and caffeine, it isn't clear how you would set
> up a feedback system, but we wouldn't need to do that: the system could know
> the weight of the patient and could deliver the other two feels-good
> chemicals at a pre-calculated concentration.  The system could monitor the
> amount of water delivered, without requiring the patients to hold a glass or
> cup, using a drinking tube vaguely analogous to that which is used for
> racecar drivers in the 500.  That way, measurement inaccuracies because of
> spillage wouldn't mess up the measurements.
>
> Alcohol, nicotine, caffeine, anything else we can add to a drinking water
> supply and deliver via a straw?  Vitamins?  Iron?  Calcium  fluoride?
> Aspirin?  I know how to get all the above examples into a concentrated
> water-soluble form which can be metered and added to a drinking water
> stream.
>
> Doctors among us, is anyone working on stuff like this?  Why not?  Rafal, do
> you have any buddies who specialize in geriatrics who might want to be an
> amateur inventor, or work with one?
>
> spike
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From spike66 at att.net  Sun Dec 29 05:24:36 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2013 21:24:36 -0800
Subject: [ExI] wheelchair driving drunk
In-Reply-To: <8D0D253D3771F33-FC4-4F93F@webmail-d290.sysops.aol.com>
References: <001201cf0404$60e20840$22a618c0$@att.net>
 <8D0D253D3771F33-FC4-4F93F@webmail-d290.sysops.aol.com>
Message-ID: <004801cf0456$440c7780$cc256680$@att.net>

 

 

On Behalf Of Alex Blainey
Subject: Re: [ExI] wheelchair driving drunk

 

-----Original Message-----
From: spike <spike66 at att.net>


>>.If such a device continually monitored the air around a patient's head,
it could be programmed to know the weight of the patient and could deliver
alcohol into a drinking water mechanism.......
> spike 


>.What about a catheter or trans-dermal bladder based measurement device?
Possibly for delivery also. Its effectively part of the bloodstream as a
fluid & nutrient buffer as well as a waste disposal storage point. Full of
the alcohol byproducts from the liver and giving an indication of hydration
I think it could be quite accurate. Would it get around issues of other
devices getting false reading due to hydration level? (if that is an issue)
Alex Blainey

 

Good thinking, but now I am thinking of how to do this without involving
medical personnel.  Read on please:

 

 

Gregory Lewis wrote:

 

>.I'm a doctor.

 

Pleased to meet you Dr. Lewis.  I was hoping some of you guys would chime
in.

 

>. Pretty sure none of this is being contemplated by the medical profession,
primarily because of the medical norm that nicotine/alcohol/etc. are bad
things, and not the things one prescribes to one's patients.

 

Agreed.  This is why I am hoping to use those chemicals that don't require a
doctor.  This in itself creates a new level of complication in two ways.
Elderly people tend to have a handful of pills they take for various things.
Alcohol messes with a lot of medications, killing some and amplifying some.
One might argue that a person in the condition I have described might as
well just drop the meds, but I wouldn't make that call myself.  In any case,
I wouldn't suggest any doctor prescribe such a device.  This would be a case
where engineers would modify devices already in existence, and just put them
to work without a doctor's supervision.  This is as much for the doctor's
protection as it is to help the patient.

 

When you hear the next phase of the idea, you might see where I am going.

 

>.Also the related medical norm of the treatment/enhancement distinction:
giving stuff to improve patients health is okay, as is stop disease negative
effecting wellbeing - giving out drugs to make one feel happier is generally
not deemed acceptable.

 

Ja.  That part is rolled into that whole ".First, do no harm." business.
One could argue that making the patient cheerfully drunk might be doing
harm.  I wouldn't ask an actual doctor to participate in it.

 

We already have hands-free alcohol enabling devices, such as a beer hat:

http://atimetocastawaystones.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/beer-hat-beer-helme
t-pic-8.jpg

 

We needed stuff like this in college, especially at football games.  An
example of such an occasion at the University of Florida when at a game, one
needed both hands free to do the gator chomp when the team scored or made a
good play.  One hasn't really lived until one has witnessed half a crowded
stadium doing the gator chomp.  One could not risk spilling one's beer.

 

What I am proposing would be a beer-chair.  But not necessarily with beer.

 

>.(There's also the generalized social fallout: "Evil nursing home drugs the
elderly!" etc. etc.)  Dr. Gregory Lewis

 

Ja.  We would really need an independent contractor to do this, rather than
have the nursing home have any involvement.  This too could be arranged for
a reasonable price.

 

Now for the other part of the idea.  If we manage to work out some means of
allowing a patient to spend their declining days comfortably inebriated, our
next problem is taking care of the bodily wastes.  I had a scheme for this,
one which still would not require a doctor or anyone with any actual
liability risk.  If a patient is drunk, there is an additional risk of
getting them to a toilet on a regular basis.  Toilets are still made of cold
hard ceramic material which presents a risk to the brittle bones of an
ageing AD patient.  But consider the following flight of fancy.

 

If we had a wheelchair in which the patient sat on a ring of individually
inflatable bladders with sensors, we could rotate the load bearing part of
the rear to prevent bedsores.  The patient would sit over a cone-shaped
waste-handling device with a tank receptacle.  The patient could just let it
fly at any time, since they wouldn't be wearing any undergarments, but
rather a water-proof apron of sorts with elastic around the waist.  Sensors
could react when the patient expels waste material, and spray the behind
with a jet of warm water and a blower for drying purposes.  We can even
imagine the wheelchair rolling itself to a waste-dumping station.  We could
imagine a feedback system introducing a laxative into the water as well.
Hell if we are imagining a mechanism like this one, we might as well attempt
to design one which would allow the patient to be put in it in the morning,
stay right in it all day and be placed in their bed at night, with no costly
human intervention in between.

 

Ja I realize this vision is growing quite complicated and expensive, but if
you know how much nursing homes cost, you will immediately see how practical
is this idea.  If kept sufficiently drunk and comfortable, perhaps an AD
patient could be kept in her own home rather than in a facility.  Recall a
typical AD patient can cost about 8k per month.  I can envision a good
electric wheelchair with entirely non-invasive instrumentation, fanny
washer, all of it, for a couple months nursing home fee.

 

spike

 

 

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131228/4e68d5d0/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image003.jpg
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 6496 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131228/4e68d5d0/attachment.obj>

From anders at aleph.se  Sun Dec 29 10:33:45 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 29 Dec 2013 10:33:45 +0000
Subject: [ExI] wheelchair driving drunk
In-Reply-To: <52BF3724.1070902@gmail.com>
References: <001201cf0404$60e20840$22a618c0$@att.net>
 <001901cf0409$81e8ad00$85ba0700$@att.net> <52BF3724.1070902@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52BFFA89.3050705@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-28 20:40, Gregory Lewis wrote:
> I'm a doctor. Pretty sure none of this is being contemplated by the 
> medical profession, primarily because of the medical norm that 
> nicotine/alcohol/etc. are bad things, and not the things one 
> prescribes to one's patients. Also the related medical norm of the 
> treatment/enhancement distinction: giving stuff to improve patients 
> health is okay, as is stop disease negative effecting wellbeing - 
> giving out drugs to make one feel happier is generally not deemed 
> acceptable.

Yup. But that may just mean we need to change medical norms. I have 
argued (together with Julian Savulescu) that the aim of healthcare 
should be to maximize wellbeing rather than merely health - health is 
instrumentally good for living a good life, i.e. having wellbeing, so 
why not aim straight at the target as far as possible? The treatment 
enhancement distinction of course is of no importance to us.  Of course, 
it is going to take a while to convince people...

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From anders at aleph.se  Sun Dec 29 11:19:34 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 29 Dec 2013 11:19:34 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Reading good for brain?
In-Reply-To: <F0F209D0-49E0-4FF8-8BE6-040E1640527A@yahoo.com>
References: <F0F209D0-49E0-4FF8-8BE6-040E1640527A@yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <52C00546.8000903@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-28 17:22, Dan Ust wrote:
> http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/brain-function-boosted-for-days-after-reading-a-novel-9028302.html
>
> Sounds like they need to do a bit more here to back the title of the 
> article. My immediate question was, "What's a good novel?" Would 
> reading something by Clive Cussler be better, by this test, than 
> something by James Joyce?

And maybe more than 19 test subjects would be good for the 
trustworthiness. Overall, a typical popsci claim along the lines of 
"cinnamon burns fat": maybe true, but not proven to matter. Especially 
since more brain activity is not obviously a good thing: what matters is 
what the brain activity is *about*. More activity in pain areas is 
usually a bad thing, and people well trained on a task show less 
activity in areas beginners use for the same task.

Still, there is some evidence that reading somewhat serious novels 
improves empathy abilities (you think about what people think and feel). 
Whether James Joyce is good for you remains to be studied.

(Currently enjoying Ian McDonald's sf novel "Brasyl" - partially for 
scenery setting for a sf game in a Brazil-dominated future, partially 
just for the fun goings-on among quantum hackers, reality show producers 
and far too competent Jesuits).


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131229/f765bda5/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Sun Dec 29 11:22:53 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 29 Dec 2013 11:22:53 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Summing up years of work in one sentence
Message-ID: <52C0060D.4080308@aleph.se>

http://lolmythesis.com/
Some of them are very fun and snarky.

My own would be: "Human memory could run on attractor neural networks, 
if nature was nice to us... which it probably isn't."

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From anders at aleph.se  Sun Dec 29 11:31:32 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 29 Dec 2013 12:31:32 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Nootropics and Anders
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armh5Hg2W3dVhJYjkQACZ+OePsmOByMMnRoEUEnt_jU_Yzg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <012e01cf0235$b06c8d20$1145a760$@gmail.com>
 <52BC36E9.4060509@aleph.se> <960B8EB4-0BC1-4568-BD8D-0134EAF10734@mac.com>
 <52BD49F1.7020302@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armhFEjM=BA9k9+1vsKCZLhtV6ygB1YxGB_SS6Uc0+WkXZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <52BD6724.6080608@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjxbV9dTCmvLEKRvh+vs78hoRUHjRhrdhmXy77WCoJhrg@mail.gmail.com>
 <52BE1885.5070304@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armh5Hg2W3dVhJYjkQACZ+OePsmOByMMnRoEUEnt_jU_Yzg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52C00814.2020001@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-28 12:32, BillK wrote:
> Sociopaths have the same IQ spread as the rest of the population.  But
> the sociopaths we *notice* are the high IQ successful group. Those who
> can't cope with society end up homeless or in jail.

Exactly. Most sociopaths are quite impaired: not caring for other 
people, yet not being very good at manipulating them means that you end 
up badly.

> So successful high IQ sociopaths cause more trouble for society
> because they are using their higher IQ to manipulate people and
> systems for their own advantage. The more normal high IQ people get
> pushed aside or occupy themselves with interesting careers and hobbies
> leaving the coast clear for the sociopaths to take over politics,
> finance, corporations, etc.

If you only look out for yourself, you will of course aim for situations 
that are going to be beneficial for you. So expect to see the smart 
sociopaths in places where they can gain. If you change the rules so it 
becomes harder to benefit, they will move somewhere else (or figure out 
a way around the rules).

The exact losses to society from sociopaths are hard to estimate, but I 
suspect they are *enormous*. Consider the effect of defectors 
undermining trust in prisoner-dilemma situations: the extra friction due 
to lower trust levels affects everybody, even if the defectors are a 
tiny minority. And bad, self-serving decisions from decisionmakers also 
affect all of society.

There are situations where you want a certain degree of sociopathy as a 
defense against burnout or excessive empathy, for example in surgeons. 
But most such situations are formal or non-social.

> I suspect that many of the charming charismatic politicians and
> corporate leaders that Anders consults with are actually sociopaths
> looking for the best way to increase their own power and influence.
> Until you see them in action it is hard to appreciate just how good at
> manipulation these higher IQ sociopaths are. You find yourself
> *wanting* to help and assist them in their schemes.

Exactly. But these are the smart, social sociopaths, 1% of 1% of the 
population. The others are largely failures.

I wonder is sociopaths are going to be the next group to argue for 
neurodiversity rights.


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From gjlewis37 at gmail.com  Sun Dec 29 14:10:20 2013
From: gjlewis37 at gmail.com (Gregory Lewis)
Date: Sun, 29 Dec 2013 14:10:20 +0000
Subject: [ExI] wheelchair driving drunk
In-Reply-To: <52BFFA89.3050705@aleph.se>
References: <001201cf0404$60e20840$22a618c0$@att.net>
 <001901cf0409$81e8ad00$85ba0700$@att.net> <52BF3724.1070902@gmail.com>
 <52BFFA89.3050705@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <52C02D4C.7010207@gmail.com>

I agree with this - just noting these norms, not endorsing them. My 
hunch is as medical technology gets progressively better at enhancement 
(especially grey area things like life extension and cosmetics), the 
objections to enhancement will steadily fade, especially for welfare 
goods that have more of a positional component than health 
(intelligence, attractiveness). Imagine a world where instead of mildly 
effective nootropics (e.g. Modafinil) which give you a slight 
advantage, nootropics that can increase your working memory by a factor 
of three, or dramatically improve your conscientiousness for several 
hours, or embryo selection that reliably selects offspring from the top 
percentile of g. I think most will rush to have these things, 
treatment/enhancement be damned.

In fairness, medicating people to by happy, either in residential homes 
or more generally is not straightforward, so medical conservatism 
regarding this is understandable given the tool still aren't great.

Aside: The fact that modern healthcare focuses on health rather than 
wellbeing leads to certain cases of 'metric bias' where public health 
interventions may lower wellbeing: As healthcare looks at 'deaths from 
recreational drug X', or 'incidence of STIs', but not how happy being 
high is or how much fun sex is, it aims to minimize the costs without 
regard to losing the benefit. Even the most cautious would probably 
accept there is some trade-off one should make.

On 29 December 2013 10:33:45, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> On 2013-12-28 20:40, Gregory Lewis wrote:
>> I'm a doctor. Pretty sure none of this is being contemplated by the
>> medical profession, primarily because of the medical norm that
>> nicotine/alcohol/etc. are bad things, and not the things one
>> prescribes to one's patients. Also the related medical norm of the
>> treatment/enhancement distinction: giving stuff to improve patients
>> health is okay, as is stop disease negative effecting wellbeing -
>> giving out drugs to make one feel happier is generally not deemed
>> acceptable.
>
> Yup. But that may just mean we need to change medical norms. I have
> argued (together with Julian Savulescu) that the aim of healthcare
> should be to maximize wellbeing rather than merely health - health is
> instrumentally good for living a good life, i.e. having wellbeing, so
> why not aim straight at the target as far as possible? The treatment
> enhancement distinction of course is of no importance to us.  Of
> course, it is going to take a while to convince people...
>


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Dec 30 01:34:00 2013
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 29 Dec 2013 19:34:00 -0600
Subject: [ExI] far future
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>

I am writing a book on the far future based on eugenics.  Then, genetics
has been nearly perfected and many changes have been made to humans, both
physical and mental.

I would like to find out  fellow members' ideas on just what changes should
be made in us if that were possible and discuss them.  And yes, I might
include them in my book and give you credit.

I am new to the list and maybe have filled up emailboxes with unwanted
content. If so please excuse.  I do not know how to find my topic or
members who might be interested.

I am an old social psychologist.

Sincerely,

William F Wallace
Brandon MS USA
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131229/f459080e/attachment.html>

From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Dec 30 04:58:45 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sun, 29 Dec 2013 20:58:45 -0800
Subject: [ExI] far future
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ-hjeBnGLFcdJ+Nb0Zo79WPburOymfbY6qrE5tnkK+Ew@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Dec 29, 2013 at 5:34 PM, William Flynn Wallace
<foozler83 at gmail.com>wrote:

> I am writing a book on the far future based on eugenics.  Then, genetics
> has been nearly perfected and many changes have been made to humans, both
> physical and mental.
>
> I would like to find out  fellow members' ideas on just what changes
> should be made in us if that were possible and discuss them.  And yes, I
> might include them in my book and give you credit.
>

What kind of story are you looking to write?  Not all science fiction need
dwell on all the details.

Put another way, how central is eugenics to the story, and what form did it
take?  Was it just general improvements handed out to everyone, or were
there specific things selected for?  Was it via retrovirus or other
germline tinkering, or was it the "enforced selective breeding" type that
has had major problems when tried before?  Were there improvements handed
out mainly to babies, rich babies first, with technology struggling to give
the same benefits to those already born?  And so on.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131229/1857984b/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Mon Dec 30 09:30:34 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 30 Dec 2013 10:30:34 +0100
Subject: [ExI] far future
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52C13D3A.4020602@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-30 02:34, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
> I am writing a book on the far future based on eugenics.  Then, 
> genetics has been nearly perfected and many changes have been made to 
> humans, both physical and mental.
>
> I would like to find out  fellow members' ideas on just what changes 
> should be made in us if that were possible and discuss them.  And yes, 
> I might include them in my book and give you credit.

The problem here is "far future". If that were just 40 years, then 
things are pretty simple: enough time for about two generations, social 
mores are not going to be totally alien, people enhance for reasons we 
recognize today, and biotechnology might be powerful but it is still 
likely nowhere near the ultimate limits. But give things a few centuries 
or millennia, and the book might be rather hard to read.

Are you going to base it on just biological changes? Because there is 
only so far you can push biology, and everything needs to be retrofitted 
to the existing mess. If you also include non-biological enhancements 
like alternate biochemistry synthetic biology, implanted nanotechnology, 
outsourced biology, not to mention external collective intelligence 
(either from AI, smartly networked people or brain emulations) then 
things can get *very* different and potentially alien, especially once 
neurotechnology allow people to modify their minds. At that point not 
only bodies but minds and kinds of individuals (if any) become cultural 
artefacts.


Looking at what people today like to change, it is pretty clear that 
people primarily want better health for their children (= likely early 
enhancement). While people talk a lot about appearance and athletics in 
regards to genetic change, I think the safe bet is that early aims will 
be general purpose goods (intelligence, social skill, happiness, 
longevity). The development speed is modulated by how quickly 
enhancement of GPGs can actually be developed, safety tested and 
evaluated - genetics is slow compared to medical implants, drugs or 
software, and natural variations typically has small effect sizes. An 
interesting issue I am currently looking into is moral enhancement (see 
the work of Savulescu, Persson and Douglas), which might or might not be 
very useful or very socially destabilizing. Note that already at this 
point - a society with cohorts of smart, energetic and moral people - 
the sociology gets rather alien.

Note that drastic morphologic change is unlikely to be popular among 
mainstream parents: few parents today dress their kids as lizards 
outside fancy dress parties, and most morphologic changes are too 
specific to be useful. Better to implement them using surgery, implants, 
attachments or external devices.






-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Dec 30 16:57:42 2013
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Mon, 30 Dec 2013 10:57:42 -0600
Subject: [ExI] far future
In-Reply-To: <52C13D3A.4020602@aleph.se>
References: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52C13D3A.4020602@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEam5aoP6u3KONtu+cyErpNXPtFeKALLzs7tT=xDA=qM1w@mail.gmail.com>

Far future - year 50,000 a.d. There is no economy - everything is free.
Robots do everything except think.  No politics - democratic socialism -
takes 95% approval for any genetic changes.  Humans do not participate in
making babies - all done by computer and genemaking equipment.  Gene design
borrowed from all sort of animals and plants.  Immune system, muscle
design, etc.  Vision better and I don't know what to make of enhancing
smell.  Do we really want to smell like a dog?  (so to speak)  We would
likely have to redesign our disgust responses.  All humans have basically
the same genetic makeup except for external features - why deprive newborns
of any good genes? (thus making children far more genetically similar to
existing adults than today's parent and child)  Improving humans by
implants etc. has been left way behind.  Not considered natural.

So, everyone is a genius of all sorts.  All medical and psychological
problems related to genes have been eliminated.  Personalities are sunny in
disposition, eager to work, devoid of any competitive impulses, unable to
even think of hurting another person, and so on.

bill


On Mon, Dec 30, 2013 at 3:30 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2013-12-30 02:34, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
>
>> I am writing a book on the far future based on eugenics.  Then, genetics
>> has been nearly perfected and many changes have been made to humans, both
>> physical and mental.
>>
>> I would like to find out  fellow members' ideas on just what changes
>> should be made in us if that were possible and discuss them.  And yes, I
>> might include them in my book and give you credit.
>>
>
> The problem here is "far future". If that were just 40 years, then things
> are pretty simple: enough time for about two generations, social mores are
> not going to be totally alien, people enhance for reasons we recognize
> today, and biotechnology might be powerful but it is still likely nowhere
> near the ultimate limits. But give things a few centuries or millennia, and
> the book might be rather hard to read.
>
> Are you going to base it on just biological changes? Because there is only
> so far you can push biology, and everything needs to be retrofitted to the
> existing mess. If you also include non-biological enhancements like
> alternate biochemistry synthetic biology, implanted nanotechnology,
> outsourced biology, not to mention external collective intelligence (either
> from AI, smartly networked people or brain emulations) then things can get
> *very* different and potentially alien, especially once neurotechnology
> allow people to modify their minds. At that point not only bodies but minds
> and kinds of individuals (if any) become cultural artefacts.
>
>
> Looking at what people today like to change, it is pretty clear that
> people primarily want better health for their children (= likely early
> enhancement). While people talk a lot about appearance and athletics in
> regards to genetic change, I think the safe bet is that early aims will be
> general purpose goods (intelligence, social skill, happiness, longevity).
> The development speed is modulated by how quickly enhancement of GPGs can
> actually be developed, safety tested and evaluated - genetics is slow
> compared to medical implants, drugs or software, and natural variations
> typically has small effect sizes. An interesting issue I am currently
> looking into is moral enhancement (see the work of Savulescu, Persson and
> Douglas), which might or might not be very useful or very socially
> destabilizing. Note that already at this point - a society with cohorts of
> smart, energetic and moral people - the sociology gets rather alien.
>
> Note that drastic morphologic change is unlikely to be popular among
> mainstream parents: few parents today dress their kids as lizards outside
> fancy dress parties, and most morphologic changes are too specific to be
> useful. Better to implement them using surgery, implants, attachments or
> external devices.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --
> Dr Anders Sandberg
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Oxford University
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131230/22d744f1/attachment.html>

From nuala.t at gmail.com  Mon Dec 30 06:26:46 2013
From: nuala.t at gmail.com (Nuala Thomson)
Date: Mon, 30 Dec 2013 17:26:46 +1100
Subject: [ExI] far future
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <BF8709D3-2648-47CB-98FB-7014583DBC31@gmail.com>

This would be the first time I've contributed to anything, and I was pleased to receive your email.

I can offer my ideas of what I want to do to myself based on what technology would be available in the future but a lot of it would be conservative.

The only genetic alteration I want done is to change my hair colour to purple.

Brain enhancement wise: being able to control the release of chemicals and how much is released. Adrenalin and serotonin are a good example.

More cyborg related: increased strength and grip by electrical impulses.
Limb replacement (eg, below the elbow or whole arm) replaced with metal for bones and synthetic skin, that house hidden weapons. Think hidden blade assassins creed style (something to look up if you don't play video games), or a mini turret gun.
I know a lot of people that want enhanced eyesight. To be able to switch from normal vision to infra red or UV.
If you're after more military style I'd look into some of the augmentations the main character from Deus Ex had. It would atleast provide some inspiration.

One of my ultimates would be to become a part of my motorbike. To share a consciousness. To be able to not sit on but more inside, have it read my energy/genetic code and respond based on that. From ignition to suspension. I suppose if there were a way to meld with my bike on a conscious level, Avatar (the movie) had it pretty close. But what I imagine is more a bike that you slot your limbs into.

Anyway there are some ideas, and I hope those references give you some inspiration.
I would love to read your book when it's ready, or not.

And I apologise for any grammatical errors and disjointed text.
This is a reply on my phone during work.

Nuala.




On 30/12/2013, at 12:34, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:

> I am writing a book on the far future based on eugenics.  Then, genetics has been nearly perfected and many changes have been made to humans, both physical and mental.
> 
> I would like to find out  fellow members' ideas on just what changes should be made in us if that were possible and discuss them.  And yes, I might include them in my book and give you credit.
> 
> I am new to the list and maybe have filled up emailboxes with unwanted content. If so please excuse.  I do not know how to find my topic or members who might be interested.
> 
> I am an old social psychologist.
> 
> Sincerely, 
> 
> William F Wallace
> Brandon MS USA
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Dec 30 18:42:57 2013
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Mon, 30 Dec 2013 12:42:57 -0600
Subject: [ExI] far future
In-Reply-To: <BF8709D3-2648-47CB-98FB-7014583DBC31@gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
 <BF8709D3-2648-47CB-98FB-7014583DBC31@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYBGN+dX57AFd0zzKmvq6sCN7640SsRX03W7Y8FxFP2MQ@mail.gmail.com>

Fights, wars, are things of the distant past.  There is no reason to mold a
person as a warrior, though certainly the designs for them are still in
computer memory.  There are no weapons except those prepared for alien
invaders, of whom nothing has been seen yet.  Aggressiveness, excess
testosterone - gone.  Actually, both men and women have the same. Same
height, same strength, etc. (as demanded by women -so, no 'little woman',
or 'baby', or need to protect them)

Along with the naturalistic bent of my future is the idea that any sort of
improvement comes from genes, not environment.  If a future person did not
like the hair they were born with Big Computer would examine their genes to
find out what's wrong.  So, no enhancement, no tattoos.

Muscles are about three times stronger, as are bones and sinews,
enhancements that were made tens of thousands of years ago when warriors
were designed, and kept in the gene pattern.

There is more of an Asian mind set in the future people - I am not
important, the group is important, don't stand out in any way, don't
compete except with yourself.

There will be a satire element but I don't want to discuss that now.

The population is down to a few thousand and going down to two - so, a new
Eden.  My character's visit there/then is part of a plan for everyone to
vote on what is the perfect human.

They can give people the smell sensitivity of a bear, eyesight of an eagle,
and so on, but to what purpose?  One of my favorite improvements is the
ability to inhibit certain brain stimulations.  For example, they cannot
overeat because inhibition kicks in and the food tastes like cardboard.
Also, they can see much further into their unconscious that we can and stop
cognitive errors such as overgeneralizing or over discriminating. They can
also, as you mentioned, increase the flow of brain chemicals that give
pleasure or whatever - no need for any drugs:  food, sex, music etc. create
massive pleasure, much like we try to enhance with pot of something.  But
they don't get addicted because of the ability to turn these off, which is
automatic after a certain time.  (an orgasm lasting, say, ten minutes,
would probably kill a person - so they are fairly conservative in their
outlook).

And I haven't even mentioned the sexual enhancements!


On Mon, Dec 30, 2013 at 12:26 AM, Nuala Thomson <nuala.t at gmail.com> wrote:

> This would be the first time I've contributed to anything, and I was
> pleased to receive your email.
>
> I can offer my ideas of what I want to do to myself based on what
> technology would be available in the future but a lot of it would be
> conservative.
>
> The only genetic alteration I want done is to change my hair colour to
> purple.
>
> Brain enhancement wise: being able to control the release of chemicals and
> how much is released. Adrenalin and serotonin are a good example.
>
> More cyborg related: increased strength and grip by electrical impulses.
> Limb replacement (eg, below the elbow or whole arm) replaced with metal
> for bones and synthetic skin, that house hidden weapons. Think hidden blade
> assassins creed style (something to look up if you don't play video games),
> or a mini turret gun.
> I know a lot of people that want enhanced eyesight. To be able to switch
> from normal vision to infra red or UV.
> If you're after more military style I'd look into some of the
> augmentations the main character from Deus Ex had. It would atleast provide
> some inspiration.
>
> One of my ultimates would be to become a part of my motorbike. To share a
> consciousness. To be able to not sit on but more inside, have it read my
> energy/genetic code and respond based on that. From ignition to suspension.
> I suppose if there were a way to meld with my bike on a conscious level,
> Avatar (the movie) had it pretty close. But what I imagine is more a bike
> that you slot your limbs into.
>
> Anyway there are some ideas, and I hope those references give you some
> inspiration.
> I would love to read your book when it's ready, or not.
>
> And I apologise for any grammatical errors and disjointed text.
> This is a reply on my phone during work.
>
> Nuala.
>
>
>
>
> On 30/12/2013, at 12:34, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> > I am writing a book on the far future based on eugenics.  Then, genetics
> has been nearly perfected and many changes have been made to humans, both
> physical and mental.
> >
> > I would like to find out  fellow members' ideas on just what changes
> should be made in us if that were possible and discuss them.  And yes, I
> might include them in my book and give you credit.
> >
> > I am new to the list and maybe have filled up emailboxes with unwanted
> content. If so please excuse.  I do not know how to find my topic or
> members who might be interested.
> >
> > I am an old social psychologist.
> >
> > Sincerely,
> >
> > William F Wallace
> > Brandon MS USA
> > _______________________________________________
> > extropy-chat mailing list
> > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131230/a557488f/attachment.html>

From painlord2k at libero.it  Mon Dec 30 20:10:40 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Mon, 30 Dec 2013 21:10:40 +0100
Subject: [ExI] far future
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEam5aoP6u3KONtu+cyErpNXPtFeKALLzs7tT=xDA=qM1w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52C13D3A.4020602@aleph.se>
 <CAO+xQEam5aoP6u3KONtu+cyErpNXPtFeKALLzs7tT=xDA=qM1w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52C1D340.60302@libero.it>

Il 30/12/2013 17:57, William Flynn Wallace ha scritto:

> So, everyone is a genius of all sorts.  All medical and psychological
> problems related to genes have been eliminated.  Personalities are sunny
> in disposition, eager to work, devoid of any competitive impulses,
> unable to even think of hurting another person, and so on.

This is Heaven, so your protagonist is The Serpent or some other misfit.

A simple improvement for humans would be to fix the missing gene to
synthesize Vit.C and this would allow people to eat whatever they like
without need of fresh vegetables or fruits.

Another improvement is an increase in the ability to manage people and
relations. Currently humans are able to manage around 120-130 relations
(Dumbar's Number) at the same time (in a very shallow way).
This is something like 2.5 times the relations a chimpanzee is able to
manage. Other animals are able to manage a lot less relations (just
their near relatives and mates). The exception is, mainly, hyenas.

The ability to manage so many relations is related to the size of the
pre-frontal cortex (greater the number of relations a specie is able to
manage, larger is the cortex). Hyenas, for example, are able to share
their lair with another pack (this is impossible to other animals).

A larger or more efficient brain would allow the formation of larger and
more efficient groups where antisocial impulses would be kept under
control by the group. This already happen in the Mennonite and Hutterite
communities,  but they limit their size to around 180 individuals and
then divide the community in two independent groups.

Obviously, the community need to have shared norms and a common goal for
individuals to participate.

A side effect would be, for individuals, an increase ability to create
strong and deep emotional bonds with friends, mates and family members.

After a few generations, probably, there would be a selection for more
empathy and pro-social behaviors, because other individuals would be
much more able to spot psychopaths and generally anti-social individuals
and would avoid to associate with them if possible, reducing their
social and reproductive fitness.

Mirco


From anders at aleph.se  Tue Dec 31 01:24:27 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2013 02:24:27 +0100
Subject: [ExI] far future
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEam5aoP6u3KONtu+cyErpNXPtFeKALLzs7tT=xDA=qM1w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52C13D3A.4020602@aleph.se>
 <CAO+xQEam5aoP6u3KONtu+cyErpNXPtFeKALLzs7tT=xDA=qM1w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52C21CCB.7090701@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-30 17:57, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
> Far future - year 50,000 a.d. There is no economy - everything is 
> free.  Robots do everything except think.

Why are they not thinking? At least some people would want to make 
superintelligent robots, if only as art projects or to see if they can.

Is there really no scarcity? After all, not everybody can have a 
beachfront villa at a particular nice spot or the original Mona Lisa 
with all its historical weight. Having material needs fixed does not 
obviate desires for status, uniqueness or just sheer idiosyncrasy. Iain 
M. Banks had a near-total post-scarcity society largely because the 
Minds made creative power post-scarcity, and there was essentially 
infinite space to expand in.

> No politics - democratic socialism - takes 95% approval for any 
> genetic changes.

So there is politics: one group likes change X and will try to convince 
enough about it. Maybe it is a very nice rational process, but it is 
politics.

>  I don't know what to make of enhancing smell.  Do we really want to 
> smell like a dog?
I want to be able to smell like a chromatograph, sequencing the genomes 
in the local atmosphere and detecting what isotopes and cosmic rays are 
present.

>   Improving humans by implants etc. has been left way behind.  Not 
> considered natural.

You are implicitly assuming a very homogeneous society. And why would 
"natural" have any value, or correspond to anything we consider natural? 
In most societies we arrest people who walk around naked, despite them 
being more "natural". In 17th century Europe the Alps were considered 
ugly since they were wild and natural. Why not regard technosomes as 
beautiful as a rolling British countyside, or the intricate hyperlinks 
of a nanoenhanced brain as traditional and majestic as Venice?

> So, everyone is a genius of all sorts.  All medical and psychological 
> problems related to genes have been eliminated.  Personalities are 
> sunny in disposition, eager to work, devoid of any competitive 
> impulses, unable to even think of hurting another person, and so on.

Note that eager, moral persons are able to create tremendous trouble.

Just imagine a bunch of people who set out to solve the problem of pain 
and suffering across the entire universe according to negative 
utilitarianism a la the Hedonistic Imperative. Or some total 
utilitarians seeking to maximize the potential of the universe by 
converting as much mass as possible into hedonistic computronium. Or the 
super-smart Kantians who think the others are profoundly, disturbingly 
wrong and threatening Value itself.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From nuala.t at gmail.com  Tue Dec 31 02:18:49 2013
From: nuala.t at gmail.com (Nuala Thomson)
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2013 13:18:49 +1100
Subject: [ExI] far future
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEYBGN+dX57AFd0zzKmvq6sCN7640SsRX03W7Y8FxFP2MQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
 <BF8709D3-2648-47CB-98FB-7014583DBC31@gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEYBGN+dX57AFd0zzKmvq6sCN7640SsRX03W7Y8FxFP2MQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <D1CE7A16-04AC-4118-AA28-7BE6EFD2EFB9@gmail.com>

What of the people who convince themselves of a particular thought that is not normal for the collective?
On a conscious level, convincing themselves somehow that sex is a bad thing, that serotonin release is a bad thing, or assuming the complete effect of hallucinogens on the brain has been realised-what about the people who want to induce trips, there is a potential that they may never want to switch off?
Unless modifications have been done to restrict what parts of the brain people can and cannot access, there would still be people who would think in a different way... And I feel like I'm venturing into 1984 territory now..



On 31/12/2013, at 5:42, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Fights, wars, are things of the distant past.  There is no reason to mold a person as a warrior, though certainly the designs for them are still in computer memory.  There are no weapons except those prepared for alien invaders, of whom nothing has been seen yet.  Aggressiveness, excess testosterone - gone.  Actually, both men and women have the same. Same height, same strength, etc. (as demanded by women -so, no 'little woman', or 'baby', or need to protect them)
> 
> Along with the naturalistic bent of my future is the idea that any sort of improvement comes from genes, not environment.  If a future person did not like the hair they were born with Big Computer would examine their genes to find out what's wrong.  So, no enhancement, no tattoos.
> 
> Muscles are about three times stronger, as are bones and sinews, enhancements that were made tens of thousands of years ago when warriors were designed, and kept in the gene pattern.
> 
> There is more of an Asian mind set in the future people - I am not important, the group is important, don't stand out in any way, don't compete except with yourself.
> 
> There will be a satire element but I don't want to discuss that now.
> 
> The population is down to a few thousand and going down to two - so, a new Eden.  My character's visit there/then is part of a plan for everyone to vote on what is the perfect human.
> 
> They can give people the smell sensitivity of a bear, eyesight of an eagle, and so on, but to what purpose?  One of my favorite improvements is the ability to inhibit certain brain stimulations.  For example, they cannot overeat because inhibition kicks in and the food tastes like cardboard.  Also, they can see much further into their unconscious that we can and stop cognitive errors such as overgeneralizing or over discriminating. They can also, as you mentioned, increase the flow of brain chemicals that give pleasure or whatever - no need for any drugs:  food, sex, music etc. create massive pleasure, much like we try to enhance with pot of something.  But they don't get addicted because of the ability to turn these off, which is automatic after a certain time.  (an orgasm lasting, say, ten minutes, would probably kill a person - so they are fairly conservative in their outlook).  
> 
> And I haven't even mentioned the sexual enhancements!
> 
> 
> On Mon, Dec 30, 2013 at 12:26 AM, Nuala Thomson <nuala.t at gmail.com> wrote:
>> This would be the first time I've contributed to anything, and I was pleased to receive your email.
>> 
>> I can offer my ideas of what I want to do to myself based on what technology would be available in the future but a lot of it would be conservative.
>> 
>> The only genetic alteration I want done is to change my hair colour to purple.
>> 
>> Brain enhancement wise: being able to control the release of chemicals and how much is released. Adrenalin and serotonin are a good example.
>> 
>> More cyborg related: increased strength and grip by electrical impulses.
>> Limb replacement (eg, below the elbow or whole arm) replaced with metal for bones and synthetic skin, that house hidden weapons. Think hidden blade assassins creed style (something to look up if you don't play video games), or a mini turret gun.
>> I know a lot of people that want enhanced eyesight. To be able to switch from normal vision to infra red or UV.
>> If you're after more military style I'd look into some of the augmentations the main character from Deus Ex had. It would atleast provide some inspiration.
>> 
>> One of my ultimates would be to become a part of my motorbike. To share a consciousness. To be able to not sit on but more inside, have it read my energy/genetic code and respond based on that. From ignition to suspension. I suppose if there were a way to meld with my bike on a conscious level, Avatar (the movie) had it pretty close. But what I imagine is more a bike that you slot your limbs into.
>> 
>> Anyway there are some ideas, and I hope those references give you some inspiration.
>> I would love to read your book when it's ready, or not.
>> 
>> And I apologise for any grammatical errors and disjointed text.
>> This is a reply on my phone during work.
>> 
>> Nuala.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> On 30/12/2013, at 12:34, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> 
>> > I am writing a book on the far future based on eugenics.  Then, genetics has been nearly perfected and many changes have been made to humans, both physical and mental.
>> >
>> > I would like to find out  fellow members' ideas on just what changes should be made in us if that were possible and discuss them.  And yes, I might include them in my book and give you credit.
>> >
>> > I am new to the list and maybe have filled up emailboxes with unwanted content. If so please excuse.  I do not know how to find my topic or members who might be interested.
>> >
>> > I am an old social psychologist.
>> >
>> > Sincerely,
>> >
>> > William F Wallace
>> > Brandon MS USA
>> > _______________________________________________
>> > extropy-chat mailing list
>> > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>> 
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131231/1a6649e7/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Tue Dec 31 09:34:41 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2013 10:34:41 +0100
Subject: [ExI] far future
In-Reply-To: <D1CE7A16-04AC-4118-AA28-7BE6EFD2EFB9@gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
 <BF8709D3-2648-47CB-98FB-7014583DBC31@gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEYBGN+dX57AFd0zzKmvq6sCN7640SsRX03W7Y8FxFP2MQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <D1CE7A16-04AC-4118-AA28-7BE6EFD2EFB9@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52C28FB1.7040608@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-31 03:18, Nuala Thomson wrote:
> What of the people who convince themselves of a particular thought that
> is not normal for the collective?

This is a general problem for societies with editable minds and 
individual freedom. How do you even tell if somebody has made themselves 
crazy?

The fact that something is maladaptive for a normal life (a good 
everyday definition of sick) doesn't necessarily apply. Somebody can 
edit out a big chunk of things we normally think are essential (say, 
love, language or pleasure), and make themselves think that this is a 
great state - and it might indeed give them some weird reward outsiders 
cannot even fathom. Just consider people spending years in anguish for 
something they consider to be holy: the Dark Night of the Soul is likely 
a fairly well-defined very unpleasant neuropsychological state, yet the 
people pursuing spirituality often persist through it because they think 
they are doing the Right Thing.

One approach is of course to let people turn themselves into strange 
things. There is a poignant and disturbing past plot thread in John C. 
Wright's "The Golden Age" about a person going under thanks to unwise 
and self-reinforcing self-editing.

Another approach I have used in some of my fictional settings is that 
authorities are allowed to audit minds. Occasionally the mind police 
come by, reset your mind to a somewhat standard neutral state, and allow 
you to consider whether you want to continue to be what you were for the 
past months. If you still do, you can get back to it. Otherwise you now 
have a chance to change.




-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Dec 31 10:54:32 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2013 10:54:32 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Critics view of TED lectures
Message-ID: <CAL_armjRwSDrpEa6a_1eMh3hsUxzxZo0afd+AHY3201oLPYS=w@mail.gmail.com>

We need to talk about TED

Science, philosophy and technology run on the model of American Idol ?
as embodied by TED talks ? is a recipe for civilisational disaster

<http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/30/we-need-to-talk-about-ted>

Quotes:
Have you ever wondered why so little of the future promised in TED
talks actually happens? So much potential and enthusiasm, and so
little actual change. Are the ideas wrong? Or is the idea about what
ideas can do all by themselves wrong?
----------
The key rhetorical device for TED talks is a combination of epiphany
and personal testimony (an "epiphimony" if you like ) through which
the speaker shares a personal journey of insight and realisation, its
triumphs and tribulations.

What is it that the TED audience hopes to get from this? A vicarious
insight, a fleeting moment of wonder, an inkling that maybe it's all
going to work out after all? A spiritual buzz?

I'm sorry but this fails to meet the challenges that we are supposedly
here to confront. These are complicated and difficult and are not
given to tidy just-so solutions. They don't care about anyone's
experience of optimism. Given the stakes, making our best and
brightest waste their time ? and the audience's time ? dancing like
infomercial hosts is too high a price. It is cynical.

Also, it just doesn't work.
----------
We hear that not only is change accelerating but that the pace of
change is accelerating as well. While this is true of computational
carrying-capacity at a planetary level, at the same time ? and in fact
the two are connected ? we are also in a moment of cultural
de-acceleration.

Because, if a problem is in fact endemic to a system, then the
exponential effects of Moore's law also serve to amplify what's
broken. It is more computation along the wrong curve, and I don't it
is necessarily a triumph of reason.
-----------
Problems are not "puzzles" to be solved. That metaphor assumes that
all the necessary pieces are already on the table, they just need to
be rearranged and reprogrammed. It's not true.

"Innovation" defined as moving the pieces around and adding more
processing power is not some Big Idea that will disrupt a broken
status quo: that precisely is the broken status quo.
----------


BillK



From ablainey at aol.com  Tue Dec 31 11:31:59 2013
From: ablainey at aol.com (Alex Blainey)
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2013 06:31:59 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [ExI] far future
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <8D0D4330DA50CB7-24FC-4E9@webmail-d132.sysops.aol.com>

A few ideas, Your starting point is ideology and morals. All technological advancement and human re-engineering will stem from that.
A simple example: Is your ideology that humans should work colaborativley towards a common good as in communism, socialism or some variant? Or is the ideology founded on creating the good of the individual as per libertarianism?

 If society concentrates on ensuring the rights of all individuals then the common good is always the result. However if society concentrates on that common good end result directly then all individual good, rights, property etc can be destroyed in the name of the common good. Paradoxically resulting in no common good at all. See any and all socialist states for reference.
What you end with is something like the old Huxley vs Wells scenarios. A brave new world nightmare or distopian communist nightmare. Take your pick.

The resultant technologies which come from the streams of ideology would vary, but in many cases would be the same but with a different focus on reason.

 Eugenics to eliminate physical imperfection: because it reduces suffering of the individual ~vs~ because it creates a better worker.
Then you also need consider that streamlining the human genome creates a far greater threat of pandemic. Which needs to be offset by tinkering with the immune system. Maybe with unseen issue on reproduction where germ line cells of a sexual partner are seen as invading threats and destroyed. The result being sterility of the race without machine intervention.
Alternatively humans need to be segregated from any external threat from pathogens, so they live in isolation from nature. A sterile *white* existence. Artificial food, no human contact all that 60's retro future stuff mixed in with a bit of demolition man.

You could consider the social conventions that we have put in place and how they pan out. Take "professionalism" as an example. The system of acting in a way that removes natural warm, friendly human interaction rules and replaces them
with a cold clean set of interaction rules based on increasing productivity. Effectively teaching and demanding that people be semi-autistic at work. Do we recode genes to make people more professional?? How far would those enhanced people then take it?
We could end up with a society of genetically enhanced autistics. I'd argue we are already naturally heading in that direction. The conventions of civilised life replacing evolutionary pressure.

 
Whats the end goal of the writing, Show how it will be or how we would like it to be?
If you are aiming for an idealistic paradise of high technology and perfect people, you really need to look at what underlying Constitution would allow that future to exist. Harder than than, what kind of human needs to be there in order to see that world as paradise? How could that kind of person have come into being? Are they still like us or will we need to change in order to find paradise? Many won't stand for such a boring world, how do you remove such natural instinct to change, seek out greener pastures etc. How do you get rid of the natural tedence to war without removing the drive to survive?

Back tracking will answer what eugenic influence needs to happen. Most writers don't bother and employ the old "historic war" that resulted in such a world. Tey skip around the problem that if everone is a Liberal, Nazi, Muslim, christian, communist, capitalist etc everyone else needs to die before peace reigns and this brave new can exist. Is there a way around that through eugenics? Engineered ideology producing a human that only focuses on doing their bit of the equation without trying to control others? But still resulting in the common good and without individual suffering or sacrifice?
A



-----Original Message-----
From: William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
To: extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Sent: Mon, 30 Dec 2013 1:40
Subject: [ExI] far future




I am writing a book on the far future based on eugenics.  Then, genetics has been nearly perfected and many changes have been made to humans, both physical and mental.


I would like to find out  fellow members' ideas on just what changes should be made in us if that were possible and discuss them.  And yes, I might include them in my book and give you credit.


I am new to the list and maybe have filled up emailboxes with unwanted content. If so please excuse.  I do not know how to find my topic or members who might be interested.

I am an old social psychologist.


Sincerely, 

William F Wallace

Brandon MS USA


_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131231/f8f14f11/attachment.html>

From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Tue Dec 31 12:26:03 2013
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2013 13:26:03 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Critics view of TED lectures
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjRwSDrpEa6a_1eMh3hsUxzxZo0afd+AHY3201oLPYS=w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjRwSDrpEa6a_1eMh3hsUxzxZo0afd+AHY3201oLPYS=w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFRUgNAhW9nt=eZaDFSpTbc3WOy7X7o_Y0Z7mhmo+vy+Pg@mail.gmail.com>

To a degree, I can agree with The Guardian. Only that The Guardian is much
worse than TED.


On Tue, Dec 31, 2013 at 11:54 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> We need to talk about TED
>
> Science, philosophy and technology run on the model of American Idol ?
> as embodied by TED talks ? is a recipe for civilisational disaster
>
> <
> http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/30/we-need-to-talk-about-ted
> >
>
> Quotes:
> Have you ever wondered why so little of the future promised in TED
> talks actually happens? So much potential and enthusiasm, and so
> little actual change. Are the ideas wrong? Or is the idea about what
> ideas can do all by themselves wrong?
> ----------
> The key rhetorical device for TED talks is a combination of epiphany
> and personal testimony (an "epiphimony" if you like ) through which
> the speaker shares a personal journey of insight and realisation, its
> triumphs and tribulations.
>
> What is it that the TED audience hopes to get from this? A vicarious
> insight, a fleeting moment of wonder, an inkling that maybe it's all
> going to work out after all? A spiritual buzz?
>
> I'm sorry but this fails to meet the challenges that we are supposedly
> here to confront. These are complicated and difficult and are not
> given to tidy just-so solutions. They don't care about anyone's
> experience of optimism. Given the stakes, making our best and
> brightest waste their time ? and the audience's time ? dancing like
> infomercial hosts is too high a price. It is cynical.
>
> Also, it just doesn't work.
> ----------
> We hear that not only is change accelerating but that the pace of
> change is accelerating as well. While this is true of computational
> carrying-capacity at a planetary level, at the same time ? and in fact
> the two are connected ? we are also in a moment of cultural
> de-acceleration.
>
> Because, if a problem is in fact endemic to a system, then the
> exponential effects of Moore's law also serve to amplify what's
> broken. It is more computation along the wrong curve, and I don't it
> is necessarily a triumph of reason.
> -----------
> Problems are not "puzzles" to be solved. That metaphor assumes that
> all the necessary pieces are already on the table, they just need to
> be rearranged and reprogrammed. It's not true.
>
> "Innovation" defined as moving the pieces around and adding more
> processing power is not some Big Idea that will disrupt a broken
> status quo: that precisely is the broken status quo.
> ----------
>
>
> BillK
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131231/3d62c06f/attachment.html>

From anders at aleph.se  Tue Dec 31 13:39:49 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2013 14:39:49 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Critics view of TED lectures
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjRwSDrpEa6a_1eMh3hsUxzxZo0afd+AHY3201oLPYS=w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjRwSDrpEa6a_1eMh3hsUxzxZo0afd+AHY3201oLPYS=w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52C2C925.5010803@aleph.se>

On 2013-12-31 11:54, BillK wrote:
> Science, philosophy and technology run on the model of American Idol ?
> as embodied by TED talks ? is a recipe for civilisational disaster

Yup. No time for questions, emphasis on wow. I actually called it mental 
pornography in an ethics blog post this summer ( 
http://blog.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk/2013/07/censorship-pornography-and-divine-swan-on-human-action/ 
)

I will also speak at TEDx Oxford on the 26th of January. Go figure :-)


> Because, if a problem is in fact endemic to a system, then the
> exponential effects of Moore's law also serve to amplify what's
> broken. It is more computation along the wrong curve, and I don't it
> is necessarily a triumph of reason.

This is an interesting and important point. Of course, if things just 
broke when inherent contradictions became untenable everything would be 
fine - we would have Schumpeterian creative destruction. Instead we get 
problems that also mutate as fast as we try to understand them. Obesity 
today is not obesity 20 years ago, surveillance today is entirely 
different from 20 years ago.



-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford University


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue Dec 31 15:49:45 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2013 10:49:45 -0500
Subject: [ExI] A paranormal prediction for the next year
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2tpWeqWgrzA7grw09N2hsm8eW4O1qv8vSd_zH9mtC3tg@mail.gmail.com>

One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
================
One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
================
One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
================
One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
================
One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
================
One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
================
One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
================
One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
================
One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
================

Happy New Year all.

I predict that a paper reporting positive psi results will NOT appear in
Nature or Science in the next year. This may seem an outrageous
prediction, after all psi is hardly a rare phenomena, millions of
people with no training have managed to observe it, or claim they have.
And I am sure the good people at Nature and Science would want to
say something about this very important and obvious part of our natural
world if they could, but I predict they will be unable to find anything
interesting to say about it.

You might think my prediction is crazy, like saying a waitress with an
eight's grade education in Duluth Minnesota can regularly observe the
Higgs boson with no difficulty but the highly trained Physicists at CERN
in Switzerland cannot. Nevertheless I am confident my prediction is true
because my ghostly spirit guide Mohammad Duntoldme spoke to me
about it in a dream.

PS: I am also confident I can make this very same prediction one year from
today.

    John K Clark
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131231/11d667af/attachment.html>

From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Tue Dec 31 18:58:51 2013
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2013 19:58:51 +0100
Subject: [ExI] A paranormal prediction for the next year
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2tpWeqWgrzA7grw09N2hsm8eW4O1qv8vSd_zH9mtC3tg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2tpWeqWgrzA7grw09N2hsm8eW4O1qv8vSd_zH9mtC3tg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFTect+LB7pJ5fT5cW1nMqFJvo0-ivsCj_XKMkE3bxv5Cg@mail.gmail.com>

Can you choose a safest bet, John?

I doubt it.


On Tue, Dec 31, 2013 at 4:49 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
> ================
> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
> ================
> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
> ================
> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
> ================
> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
> ================
> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
> ================
> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
> ================
> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
> ================
> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
> ================
>
> Happy New Year all.
>
> I predict that a paper reporting positive psi results will NOT appear in
> Nature or Science in the next year. This may seem an outrageous
> prediction, after all psi is hardly a rare phenomena, millions of
> people with no training have managed to observe it, or claim they have.
> And I am sure the good people at Nature and Science would want to
> say something about this very important and obvious part of our natural
> world if they could, but I predict they will be unable to find anything
> interesting to say about it.
>
> You might think my prediction is crazy, like saying a waitress with an
> eight's grade education in Duluth Minnesota can regularly observe the
> Higgs boson with no difficulty but the highly trained Physicists at CERN
> in Switzerland cannot. Nevertheless I am confident my prediction is true
> because my ghostly spirit guide Mohammad Duntoldme spoke to me
> about it in a dream.
>
> PS: I am also confident I can make this very same prediction one year from
> today.
>
>     John K Clark
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131231/2b70a4dc/attachment.html>

From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Tue Dec 31 18:59:28 2013
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2013 19:59:28 +0100
Subject: [ExI] A paranormal prediction for the next year
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFTect+LB7pJ5fT5cW1nMqFJvo0-ivsCj_XKMkE3bxv5Cg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2tpWeqWgrzA7grw09N2hsm8eW4O1qv8vSd_zH9mtC3tg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFTect+LB7pJ5fT5cW1nMqFJvo0-ivsCj_XKMkE3bxv5Cg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFTOtz7Dy1uYG8Bdycgz7Yjyynv+5LmxD6JPxOVQZLCd9Q@mail.gmail.com>

"safer"


On Tue, Dec 31, 2013 at 7:58 PM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>wrote:

> Can you choose a safest bet, John?
>
> I doubt it.
>
>
> On Tue, Dec 31, 2013 at 4:49 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
>> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
>> ================
>> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
>> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
>> ================
>> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
>> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
>> ================
>> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
>> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
>> ================
>> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
>> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
>> ================
>> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
>> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
>> ================
>> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
>> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
>> ================
>> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
>> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
>> ================
>> One year ago I sent the following post to the list, I did not change one
>> word. One year from now I intend to send this same message yet again.
>> ================
>>
>> Happy New Year all.
>>
>> I predict that a paper reporting positive psi results will NOT appear in
>> Nature or Science in the next year. This may seem an outrageous
>> prediction, after all psi is hardly a rare phenomena, millions of
>> people with no training have managed to observe it, or claim they have.
>> And I am sure the good people at Nature and Science would want to
>> say something about this very important and obvious part of our natural
>> world if they could, but I predict they will be unable to find anything
>> interesting to say about it.
>>
>> You might think my prediction is crazy, like saying a waitress with an
>> eight's grade education in Duluth Minnesota can regularly observe the
>> Higgs boson with no difficulty but the highly trained Physicists at CERN
>> in Switzerland cannot. Nevertheless I am confident my prediction is true
>> because my ghostly spirit guide Mohammad Duntoldme spoke to me
>> about it in a dream.
>>
>> PS: I am also confident I can make this very same prediction one year from
>> today.
>>
>>     John K Clark
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>
>
> --
> https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
>



-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131231/4de0a9c1/attachment.html>

From foozler83 at gmail.com  Tue Dec 31 19:44:31 2013
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2013 13:44:31 -0600
Subject: [ExI] far future
In-Reply-To: <8D0D4330DA50CB7-24FC-4E9@webmail-d132.sysops.aol.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbBr3kSkBFNBYpBD_n=8M-EWmZDTTXmLLKUrwM2-jhGLw@mail.gmail.com>
 <8D0D4330DA50CB7-24FC-4E9@webmail-d132.sysops.aol.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaMRWcAaPwe1EG7FLD6+aLZdwJaNevXE8VFpzT-BAPvPA@mail.gmail.com>

Some good thoughts in your missive.

Keep in mind that all humans have the same genes except for outward
appearance.  All 'evil' types are long gone.  There is a movement towards
reducing the population to two people, like Eden because of a massive guilt
complex.  It is felt that humans have spoiled the planet (in fact cleanup
is still underway with billions of robots in the oceans etc. cleaning up
chemicals).  So they want to redesign man so that this will never happen
again.  They are so fervent that it is almost like a religion.

All work towards this goal.  In their past when someone wasn't 'with the
program' their genes were cast out of the mix.  In fact, including a
person's genes in the mix is the ultimate reward, though now all are the
same.

I will not be writing about all the changes in politics/government that led
to that future state.  YOu seem to be a libertarian, as am I, but given the
circumstances they have where everyone has access to everything, everything
free, no one in poverty, the democratic socialism seems to be the best
solution.  Prior to the time I will be writing about, anyone could just
stay at home, watch TV, do drugs, and loll around.  Their punishment was to
see their genes examined and their laziness eliminated in future babies.

I am assuming nearly complete control of immune system attacks, mostly by
early detection and setting bug against bug - that is, get the gene code of
the bug and design a bug to kill it and then die itself.  Actually I think
this sort of thing is happening as we write and will be common in a few
decades.

So, I am presenting the idea of perfection and asking if it is indeed
perfect (as are they).

You seem to assume that our aggressiveness is necessary to out survival.  I
argue that we already don't need it.  We don't need to get angry.  That
just stresses the body.  So eliminate it.  That won't make us all wimps.
Redesign everything.  If you want people who are eager to go to work, find
the right gene combinations and make babies with them.  Ditto for anything
else that is genetic, and I think just about everything can be manipulated
that way.

Robots do all the work necessary for producing food, clothes, everything.
People program them, do scientific research, learn languages, play
instruments, invent dances, study history, watch old movies (not the
violent ones).

I am assuming that AI doesn't get to the point where real creativity is
possible, so humans have to do it.  There is a lot more, like antigravity,
teleportation (storing recycling stuff on the Moon).


I have trouble with my idea of their being noncompetitive, more of an Asian
type of ethos where the individual doesn't seek the spotlight.  Will they
still be really creative?  If an individual is, then will they not think
they are better than someone else?  This will be part of my satire, based
on a saying I made up:  "The easiest thing for a person to believe is that
he is better than someone else."    bill


On Tue, Dec 31, 2013 at 5:31 AM, Alex Blainey <ablainey at aol.com> wrote:

> A few ideas, Your starting point is ideology and morals. All
> technological advancement and human re-engineering will stem from that.
> A simple example: Is your ideology that humans should work colaborativley
> towards a common good as in communism, socialism or some variant? Or is the
> ideology founded on creating the good of the individual as per
> libertarianism?
>  If society concentrates on ensuring the rights of all individuals then
> the common good is always the result. However if society concentrates on
> that common good end result directly then all individual good, rights,
> property etc can be destroyed in the name of the common good. Paradoxically
> resulting in no common good at all. See any and all socialist states for
> reference.
> What you end with is something like the old Huxley vs Wells scenarios. A
> brave new world nightmare or distopian communist nightmare. Take your pick.
>
> The resultant technologies which come from the streams of ideology would
> vary, but in many cases would be the same but with a different focus on
> reason.
>   Eugenics to eliminate physical imperfection: because it reduces
> suffering of the individual ~vs~ because it creates a better worker.
> Then you also need consider that streamlining the human genome creates a
> far greater threat of pandemic. Which needs to be offset by tinkering with
> the immune system. Maybe with unseen issue on reproduction where germ line
> cells of a sexual partner are seen as invading threats and destroyed. The
> result being sterility of the race without machine intervention.
> Alternatively humans need to be segregated from any external threat from
> pathogens, so they live in isolation from nature. A sterile *white*
> existence. Artificial food, no human contact all that 60's retro future
> stuff mixed in with a bit of demolition man.
>
> You could consider the social conventions that we have put in place and
> how they pan out. Take "professionalism" as an example. The system of
> acting in a way that removes natural warm, friendly human interaction rules
> and replaces them
> with a cold clean set of interaction rules based on increasing
> productivity. Effectively teaching and demanding that people be
> semi-autistic at work. Do we recode genes to make people more
> professional?? How far would those enhanced people then take it?
> We could end up with a society of genetically enhanced autistics. I'd
> argue we are already naturally heading in that direction. The conventions
> of civilised life replacing evolutionary pressure.
>
> Whats the end goal of the writing, Show how it will be or how we would
> like it to be?
> If you are aiming for an idealistic paradise of high technology and
> perfect people, you really need to look at what underlying Constitution
> would allow that future to exist. Harder than than, what kind of human
> needs to be there in order to see that world as paradise? How could that
> kind of person have come into being? Are they still like us or will we need
> to change in order to find paradise? Many won't stand for such a boring
> world, how do you remove such natural instinct to change, seek out greener
> pastures etc. How do you get rid of the natural tedence to war without
> removing the drive to survive?
>
> Back tracking will answer what eugenic influence needs to happen. Most
> writers don't bother and employ the old "historic war" that resulted in
> such a world. Tey skip around the problem that if everone is a Liberal,
> Nazi, Muslim, christian, communist, capitalist etc everyone else needs to
> die before peace reigns and this brave new can exist. Is there a way around
> that through eugenics? Engineered ideology producing a human that only
> focuses on doing their bit of the equation without trying to control
> others? But still resulting in the common good and without individual
> suffering or sacrifice?
> A
>
>
>  -----Original Message-----
> From: William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
> To: extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Sent: Mon, 30 Dec 2013 1:40
> Subject: [ExI] far future
>
>    I am writing a book on the far future based on eugenics.  Then,
> genetics has been nearly perfected and many changes have been made to
> humans, both physical and mental.
>
>  I would like to find out  fellow members' ideas on just what changes
> should be made in us if that were possible and discuss them.  And yes, I
> might include them in my book and give you credit.
>
>  I am new to the list and maybe have filled up emailboxes with unwanted
> content. If so please excuse.  I do not know how to find my topic or
> members who might be interested.
>
> I am an old social psychologist.
>
>  Sincerely,
>
> William F Wallace
>  Brandon MS USA
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing listextropy-chat at lists.extropy.orghttp://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131231/6d7296ee/attachment.html>

From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Dec 31 20:57:10 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2013 12:57:10 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Critics view of TED lectures
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjRwSDrpEa6a_1eMh3hsUxzxZo0afd+AHY3201oLPYS=w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjRwSDrpEa6a_1eMh3hsUxzxZo0afd+AHY3201oLPYS=w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSS70pmgWo0s9XY-2iFHY41-RBAsc4E2-LZsHXvT8TXiw@mail.gmail.com>

On Dec 31, 2013 2:55 AM, "BillK" <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> We need to talk about TED

So the question is, will anyone with the capability to accomplish this, act
on this warning flag?  Or will it be applauded then amount to nothing, like
most TED talks?  I see no call to action here - nothing that specific
organizers or other individuals need to do.  It's easy for those with the
means to let "someone else" handle it...and then no one ever does.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131231/c9107724/attachment.html>

From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Dec 31 21:20:29 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2013 21:20:29 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Critics view of TED lectures
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNSS70pmgWo0s9XY-2iFHY41-RBAsc4E2-LZsHXvT8TXiw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjRwSDrpEa6a_1eMh3hsUxzxZo0afd+AHY3201oLPYS=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNSS70pmgWo0s9XY-2iFHY41-RBAsc4E2-LZsHXvT8TXiw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgDjp8dDsHw=gJY88xai43yhoVeNyax4B1kvLtUUQgOgw@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Dec 31, 2013 at 8:57 PM, Adrian Tymes wrote:
> So the question is, will anyone with the capability to accomplish this, act
> on this warning flag?  Or will it be applauded then amount to nothing, like
> most TED talks?  I see no call to action here - nothing that specific
> organizers or other individuals need to do.  It's easy for those with the
> means to let "someone else" handle it...and then no one ever does.
>
>

The article is the text of a lecture the author gave at TEDx San Diego
at their invitation.

So the organisers of TEDx are aware of the problem and may be seeking to change.


BillK


From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Dec 31 22:01:20 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2013 14:01:20 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Critics view of TED lectures
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgDjp8dDsHw=gJY88xai43yhoVeNyax4B1kvLtUUQgOgw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjRwSDrpEa6a_1eMh3hsUxzxZo0afd+AHY3201oLPYS=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNSS70pmgWo0s9XY-2iFHY41-RBAsc4E2-LZsHXvT8TXiw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armgDjp8dDsHw=gJY88xai43yhoVeNyax4B1kvLtUUQgOgw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ1Y7+bi6JqcMOzk=Y3xOnbUj3k_PQC4ExC-+5nBc51rQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Dec 31, 2013 1:21 PM, "BillK" <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> The article is the text of a lecture the author gave at TEDx San Diego
> at their invitation.
>
> So the organisers of TEDx are aware of the problem and may be seeking to
change.

Unfortunately, the latter does not necessarily follow from the former in
this case.

They may have given it little more thought than, "This sounds like a
serious issue, credibly presented; hopefully this will inspire one of the
attendees to do something about it." Alternately, the person who made this
invite may (probably falsely) believe he has no power to address this issue.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131231/c3729ff1/attachment.html>