[ExI] Fwd: [tt] The Habitable Epoch of the Early Universe

[Eugen Leitl]

On Thu, Dec 12, 2013 at 12:48:42PM +0000, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> On 2013-12-12 07:05, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> >Interesting, does it mean that the string landscape is more likely to
> >be real, given that anthropic explanations for the fine tuning of the
> >cosmological constant are weakened?
> 
> Hmm, depends on if you believe the self sampling assumption (SSA) or

A theory which starts with beliefs is not much of one.

"All other things equal, an observer should reason as if they are randomly selected from the set of all possible observers."

Self-observation is the opposite of random just as selection
is the opposite of mutation. If the set of
all possible observers is unity across space and/or time
you're still going to observe an arbitrarily improbable
event. It gives you no other information that you exist,
which certainly is something, but not much. 

Out of two cases, where you're common as dirt or rare
as Pt-190 diadem, the monoisotopic diadem will without 
fault find itself in its fine lustrous glory even if it's the
only one in the whole universe.

The random sampling assumption only holds if you're 
omniscient/omnipresent.

I doubt you're God, so no statistics for you. Sorry.

> self indication assumption (SIA). SSA would weaken the fine tuning
> of cosmological constant, while I *think* the SIA would not change
> it. I'll ask around the experts in the office.