[ExI] Where are they? was Re: 2^57885161-1
avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com
Wed Feb 20 15:39:32 UTC 2013
> From: Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org>
>To: The Avantguardian <avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com>; ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
>Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 5:43 AM
>Subject: Re: [ExI] Where are they? was Re: 2^57885161-1
>On Wed, Feb 20, 2013 at 03:45:27AM -0800, The Avantguardian wrote:
>> Perhaps your new law of physics should be that "cultures of an intelligent species
>Intelligent species are a subset of all expansive species.
True but non-intelligent post biota will likely be too busy eating one another to build Von Neumann probes.
>My aquarium is not a democracy.
Your aquarium also stands little chance of being detected by an ET civilization as well or colonizing the galaxy.
>> Ahh but in celebration of his birthday, I will invoke the Copernican principle and say that we are unlikely to be the first.
>It's a statement we can feel good about, but unfortunately it's
>not supported by any data.
>> I would say that there is about a 2/3 prior chance that we are one standard
>> deviation above or below the mean in age or advancement for civilizations.
>Bzzt, no data.
Correct. That is why it is called a *prior*. When we get data, we get to update our priors and calculate posteriors.
>> Also keep in mind that only civilizations indigenous to any of the 14600
>> stars within our radio light-cone have any chance of detecting us and vice versa.
>If we don't collape there will be measurable stellar dimming
>in about a century scale, if not earlier.
So how many long-period eclipsing binaries out there aren't really binary stars at all but are instead works in progress?
>> The universe is vast and you have sampled only a small speck of it.
>> It would be unwise to extrapolate that ridiculous sample to the universe at large.
>Expansive life is impossible to miss across GLYr distances, unless
>observability is censored by relativistic expansion + anthropic principle.
>What we see is exactly what we can expect to see.
If a civilization turned the Andromeda galaxy to computronium 2 Myrs ago, we wouldn't notice for another 500 kyrs. So don't wait up.
"Ignorance is the curse of God; knowledge is the wing wherewith we fly to heaven." - William Shakespeare
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