[ExI] Wind, solar could provide 99.9% of ALL POWER by 2030

spike spike66 at att.net
Fri Jan 18 15:26:57 UTC 2013



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
>...

>...The study isn't trying to redesign the whole world. It is trying to show
that by increasing the use of renewable energy over the next 17 years it is
feasible to run the US grid mostly from wind and sun. As Spike points out,
cars will become more economical, especially when driven by Google...BillK
_______________________________________________

Oy, I fear posting on this topic because you patient lads must be getting so
tired of hearing my blathering.  

Please, go out in your driveway and gaze at your Detroit.  Really examine
the thing, then look at it the way an aerospace engineer looks at a problem,
by asking what is the mission exactly, and what can we give up.  What is
hanging on this device that we can do without?  Turns out the answer is
plenty.  What paradigms are built into this device which have become
tradition, but now we have better ways?

My answers: we assumed we need to go 100 mph or higher.  Absurd, we don't.
We assumed we need to survive high speed collisions.  We don't need that
capability if the Detroit doesn't go to high speeds, and the road has far
fewer high speed vehicles.  We get a lot of safety nearly free if we assume
a lot of high techy airbag technology which has come along in the past 20
yrs.  We assume we need to accelerate at nearly a G because teenagers used
to use cars as toys at the local dragstrip, not that *I* would *ever* do
such a thing you understand.

When I see calcs that assume fuel usage as we have always done then
calculate the area of solar panels needed to replace the dino-fuel, it
immediately becomes clear they are neglecting two important factors: we can
build cars way more efficient than they are, and there will be a lot more
cars in the next couple decades.

Interesting trend: China is a country which is coming up fast.  They are
having all the classic problems now: their big cities are choking on auto
exhaust.  Unlike western nations, the Chinese government has the authority
to dictate to its gigaprole exactly how things will be.  So it should be
interesting to see how they deal with the problems.  I can imagine the
leaders doing all the calculations, then realizing they need to arrange for
all those factories to produce some super lightweight Lion battery
electrics, that top out at about 80 kph (that will get you there,
eventually) have a peak acceleration of about 0.25G (patience Grahss Hoppah)
and weigh about 400 kg.  Those buggies would have eager markets all over the
world.  India will want them, Europe will want them.  Americans will hate
them, but they are coming anyway.  Markets will demand them eventually.  

There is a legal way our current governments can tilt the playing field to
favor these devices: lower speed limits.

Last thought: if we had these little electric buggies, it will really boost
the notion of having them computer driven.  They will be so frustrating to
drive, owners will be eager to hand over that onerous task.  Right now our
Detroits are fun to drive.  The electrics I envision will not be fun.
However they will use only about 20 to 30 percent the energy full cycle,
making them rechargeable with rooftop solar panels, assuming you don't drive
very far and it isn't a particularly dense housing where you live.

We really can do this.  Not in 17 years, not 99%, but I can envision 80%
renewable in 30 years.  Fracking will help build a bridge to the future as
ground based solar and wind power ramp up.  We need to get on it, forthwith.

spike




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