[ExI] Bitcion Moore's Law?

[Brent Allsop]

Hi Gordon,

Interesting that you have such a different POV.

So then given your best guess, what would you say is the most likely 
value of Bitcion one year from now.  More or less than the predicted 
100% increase?  I figure we should be in very much agreement on this, 
even if we do disagree on the "Moore's law"ness of such predictions?  
Why is it that everyone misses and ignores the important things people 
agree on, yet focus on much less important disagreements?

I also have troubles understanding how you can say that "currency and 
commodity markets don't work that way".

It seems to me, the value of Gold is exactly the result of two "moores 
laws" playing against each other.  Number one, the deemand, which is 
increasing exponentually, paralelling the growth of humanity and the 
economy.  And second, the growth of Gold supply has been more or less 
growing exponentially, for all history, especially when the price gets 
high like it has been. There is an old popular adage that an ounce of 
Gold has always been equal to the value of a good Man's suit.  The only 
reason this has been true, for centuries, is because of these two mores 
law like behaviors have been so closely matched.  You'll probably point 
out that an ounce of Gold can, today, pay for many men's suits.  And 
I"ll just fire back that the price is way ahead of itself, and precisely 
why it is dramatically crashing in value, and will continue, likely tell 
it get's back to the price of a man's suit.  And of course, now, Gold 
has a Big competitor, so my prediction is that it could even drop 
further, because of this.

I will agree with you that fiat currency, controlled by any central 
resurve, does not behave according to any Moore's law, precisely because 
the central authority intervenes to keep a fairly constant inflation.  
But I don't see how you can think that Bitcion, and it's restricted 
supply nature, isn't any different than any such fiat currency!?

It seems to me, you're just focusing on the short term 'commodity' 
prices and such.   I completely agree with you that there is no "moore's 
law" with any of that.  But I don't care about any of that, and nobody 
can predict any of that.  What I like to get a hold of, are the long 
term exponential trends and laws that will always, in the long run, 
drastically overwhelm all such temporary roller coaster noise.

Brent


On 6/23/2013 11:04 PM, Gordon wrote:
> Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at canonizer.com> wrote:
>
> > The new version of the "Canonized Law of the Crypto Coin" camp
> > predicting future values of Bitcion just went live.
>
> > http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2
>
> >It's predicting a continued Moore's Law like 100% / year growth...
>
> I have difficulty believing there is anything like a Moore's Law for 
> Bitcoin. Currency and commodity markets don't work that way, and I 
> don't see why Bitcoin should be different.
>
> Gordon

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