[ExI] [mta] Re: Bitcion Moore's Law?

[Brent Allsop]

Hi Gordon,

On Thu, Jul 11, 2013 at 6:28 PM, Gordon <gts_2000 at yahoo.com> wrote:

> Bitcoin has acted almost like a full-fledged currency on the international
> markets of late. Instead of the wild, speculative price swings of a few
> months back, it has traded as if inversely correlated with the DXY (The DXY
> is the USD verses a basket of major currencies of US trading partners). As
> DXY rallied over the last couple of months, BTC declined. A few days ago,
> in response to the FED minutes, DXY took a sharp dive while BTC enjoyed a
> strong rally.
>
> Brent Allsop:
>
> >>As you can see in this historical graph of Bitcoin valuation growth:
> http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2.  It has so far followed more of a
> Moore's law than almost anything else.  So how much more of this kind of
> Moore's Law Growth will be required before you'll jump camps and admit that
> there is a Moore's Law like growth in value of Bitcoins?<<
>



Moore's law is simply a small and specific example of the more general
"Kurzweel's law of Accelerating Returns".   Simple exponential growth is
something like rabbits reproducing in an open system and is very
predictable and explainable in simplistic ways.  In an open system, the
only effect is simply the number of rabbits.  While general accelerating
return laws also behave exponentially, it is for very different
inexplicable reasons, and happens within extremely complex systems and
interactions of huge numbers of otherwise unpredictable and noisy effects.
All the cyclical noise, when examined closely, look important.  But when
you stand back, they all become insignificant, compared to the
exponentially accelerating growth and returns of the overall system.
Complex things like economic growth, evolutionary growth, growth in the
number of transistors on a chip, and so on are all examples of not just
simple exponential growth, but accelerating return laws which can't be
simply explained.

Since all economies grow according to the complex accelerating return laws,
any fixed currencies being used in those accelerating growing systems, must
corresponding grow according to the same complex laws of accelerating
returns.  Hence why the emerging expert consensus is now predicting Bitcion
valuations,  must also grow  exponentially, along with these accelerating
return like laws, and that all other effects on the price will simply
become irrelevant noise, in the long term.



>
> Moore's Law is mostly about technological progress. Bitcoin is a
> commodity, albeit a unique one. It is something like a hybrid between a
> precious metal and an ordinary currency.
>

If there is something to what you are saying, you should be able to get
others to agree, and build an expert consensus camp around it.  I predict
you will not be able to do this, or keep up with the "Accelerating Law of
Returns consensus.


>
> You mentioned in one of your messages that you believe there is also a
> Moore's Law for gold. If that is the case then how do you explain that the
> price of gold languished for something like 20 years commencing in about
> 1980? Where was the Moore's Law for gold during all those years?
>

You completely missed what I was trying to say.  There are are two
accelerating law of returns effecting the valuation of Gold.  Like
Bitcoins, it is the growing economy which has the most profound effect.
But, unlike Bitcions, the supply is growing, exponentially, in an equally
profound accelerating law of returns way.  These to complex laws of
accelerating returns, basically cancel each other out in the long term.
The price fluctuations you are talking about during "All those" 20 years,
again, is just commodity noise that is insignificant compared to the long
term accelerating return effects canceling each other out.



>
> Gordon
>

Again, I ask you, what are we disagreeing about?  Or are are you just
making hurdling bleating useless noise in the system which is completely
meaningless in the long term?  When do you predict we will first see a
$1000/BTC valuation?  Are you predicting faster or slower growth than the
emerging consensus Crypto Coin law of accelerating returns camp?

http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/155

Upwards,

Brent Allsop
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