[ExI] Fwd: Re: [mta] Re: Bitcion Moore's Law?

[Tomasz Rola]

On Wed, 17 Jul 2013, Brent Allsop wrote:
> 
> Hi Folks,
> 
> OK, It looks like there is a clear expert consensus that I trust here.  I
> guess I was making too much of an assumption about how fast the production of
> Gold was.  I need to rethink my thinking thanks to all your help.
> 
> I do have another question.  Would all you guys consider .00001% / year
> growth, exponential growth?  It seems like most of our disagreement is just
> about how much exponential growth there is.  And even the graph from 1900,
> would look very linear (as you seem to think it is) with .00001% growth,
> right?

Yeah, if we take it from definition, i.e. x(n) = x(0)*(1+r)^n , so we 
assume r=0.00001 and we are ok.

But I don't think this r or any other r has got much to do with future 
gold production or any other process undergoing on this planet, or this 
solar system or any closed space analysed without connection to 
surrounding Universe. One could as well claim that human population grew 
exponentially so far and from this infer it will be so in a future, too. 
Well, don't hold your breath. This has got to stop, one way or another. In 
other words, there might be exponential growth in some limited time 
period. Predicting what happens next based on one factor (when the process 
really depends on many factors) looks like pure numerology to me. It looks 
even worse when one predicts future value based on current and previous 
values - like, since January upto today, number of sunny days per month 
grew linearly (well, ok, I am making this up but I'm sure the number 
grew), thus I predict it will grow twice as much until December, and next 
July it will be even bigger, perhaps as big as forty sunny days per 
month, maybe fifty. So if you are in travel business, adjust your 
investments accordingly, blah blah blah. This kind of prediction fails to 
see whole planet and I'd say the global number of sunny days per month 
stays constant (with some fluctuations). It also fails to realize where 
those sunny days' growth came from (during first half of the year on 
northern hemisphere). And so on. So if one does not analyse the whole 
problem, one can easily end up with linear growth to 50 sunny days in 
31-day month. Smells a bit fishy, doesn't it?

> And if not, do you think it will be less growth, more growth, or just 
> not as (moore's law like) linear (on a logarithmic graph) as it has in 
> the past?  And if so, why?

Myself, I view bitcion price as very much "made up" value. How it is going 
to change? You can as well ask me how big will be the cost of those things 
made by... Dolce and Versace? I really don't know what they sell 
(something "fushionable", this much is what I need to know) but even if I 
knew I still wouldn't know what price people would pay for those ten years 
from now. Perhaps nothing, because fushionable things defushion themselves 
so quickly.

Of course, since I have a computer and maybe will invest in additional 
hardware, I may join the play. Or maybe I will find a better way to invest 
my pennies. Like, knowledge is priceless, eh?

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **