[ExI] Bitcoin Arbitrage Profitability? (Was Re: Bitcoin Moore's Law?)

[Gordon]

Bryan Bishop <kanzure at gmail.com> wrote:


On Sun, Jul 21, 2013 at 10:24 AM, Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at canonizer.com> wrote:

I'm betting that any arbitrage / AI based trading going on so far, is done by individuals, or very small groups at best
>Nope, there's software written. The bitcoin community is extremely technical. I don't think you should underestimate them in this department.

>https://github.com/maxme/bitcoin-arbitrage


I watched a video of a presentation by a statistician at the recent bitcoin conference in Silicon Valley. A question came up about the price discrepancies between markets, in particular between Mt.Gox and BTC-e. He replied along the lines that the price differences are probably due to differences in transaction costs and risks between the markets. In other words, that the markets are fairly efficient even if they may not appear that way. Perhaps it is because of this software that Bryan mentions.

The most interesting thing about his presentation, in my view, was his observation that intra-day price trends on Mt. Gox seem to exist, even if longer term trends might be an illusion. Unclear, however, whether these very short term trends can be exploited after considering transaction costs. 

Gordon
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