[ExI] predictable futures - was cyprus banks

[BillK]

On Wed, Mar 20, 2013 at 11:19 AM, Andrew Mckee wrote:
> It would be interesting to know since a lot has changed in nearly two
> decades, maybe he could be persuaded to write an update some time.
>
> Still regardless of when or if the Singularity happens, I sure hope there is
> plenty of plan B activity going on that someday soonish enables us all to
> get to see that big shiny beautiful future.
>


Vinge gave a speech at the Singularity Summit in Sep 2012 which
reviewed his forecast.
Transcript here:
<https://docs.google.com/document/d/1W7Vs8e3MNwjU_1ZZZqmq0O-dFKCwD4VRyww-qOvDdRU/pub>

He is still sticking with 2030, but perhaps with a widening of scope.
He has spent a lot of time discussing that the Singularity might not
happen, so he is aware of other possibilities.

The original paper did not *just* say that a super computer would
become intelligent and surpass humans by 2030.
There are five suggestions as to how the Singularity might be reached
and all may happen.

1. Computer based path to AGI
Classical Artificial intelligence

2. Intelligence Amplification

3. Digital Gaia
Devices in all things
Reality would wake up

4. Group Minds
the internet, data and algorithms, plus hundred of millions of humans

5. Biomedical enhancement of human cognition

------------------------------


So he is now talking about a wide range of options as to how the
Singularity might happen.


BillK