[ExI] Bosch exits Solar business in Germany

[Kelly Anderson]

On Wed, Mar 27, 2013 at 1:57 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Tue, Mar 26, 2013 at 03:30:35PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
>> Bosch exiting the field is probably just a reflection of advancing
>> technologies in the USA and decreased labor costs in China. The
>
> Sorry, there are no advancing PV technologies in the USA.

http://www.firstsolar.com/
http://www.nanosolar.com/

The silicon wafer method of PV will be extinct when there is
widespread availability of continuous processes. If you can make solar
panels on something that looks like a printing press, and install it
with farm tractors, that just seems more scalable to me, even if the
efficiency isn't as high for the moment. PV on your roof is a green
dream that should probably die for the most part. (this spoken as
someone who has had PV on his own roof).

> Germany was a world leader in PV, until China took over.

You're thinking production capability, not technology. The only reason
that Germany was ahead was because of massive government interference
in the process. Now that the government has tired of subsidizing the
industry to the extent necessary to adrenalize it to unnatural
proportions, the market is taking over in a natural way.

> The reason for current overcapacity is that Germany and
> Italy now have flat demand, because Germany has killed
> incentives stone cold dead, and because Italy is broke.

Perfect, just as I suspected. As Maggie Thatcher said, "The problem
with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's
money." Truer words were never spoken, and the chickens have come home
to roost in Germany.

> The labor costs had little to do with it, it's an issue
> of availability of cheap dirty coal power and very few
> environmental regulations, as well as subsidies from
> the Chinese government. I expect temporary overcapacity
> will be over in 2-3 years, with considerable consolidation
> happening meanwhile.

Just as in the early automobile industry.

>> Germans should stick with doing what they do best, big complicated
>> things like roller coasters, wind nacelles and cars and the like.
>>
>> Globally, solar will do fine over the long term, even if some
>
> I agree that solar will be fine, but we won't. Oil plateaued by
> volume by ~2006, but net energy decline only started in earnest
> in 2012. Everybody who could shifted to coal, but if coal (along with
> everything else) peaks in 7 years, and the net energy decline
> follows the fossil liquids, then 2030 will quite differ from
> 2013. We have a lot less time than we thought.

I'm not arguing peak oil with you again. You can look up my position
in the archives. It hasn't changed. Peak demand predates peak supply
is the short story.

-Kelly