[ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?

John Clark johnkclark at gmail.com
Tue May 7 14:57:47 UTC 2013

On Mon, May 6, 2013  Tomasz Rola <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:

> > As of peak oil, it seems we are going to hit the wall one way or
> another, if nothing in our ways changes.

Obviously the amount of oil on this planet is not infinite so sooner or
later we will run out, but the question is whether it is a existential
danger that requires drastic action right now or we'll all be dead or
living in a Mad Max style post apocalyptic hellscape by 2020. And besides,
10 years ago environmentalists were saying that if we don't stop our evil
energy profligate ways within 5 years then we're doomed; well we didn't
stop so I guess we're as doomed as doomed can be and so now the logical
thing for environmentalists to do is let us enjoy the short time we have
left before judgement day and just shut the hell up.

> > So, Mr Clark (if I am right) postulated there was increase in
> production, hence there was no peak.

It seems to me that is a very valid postulate and not just for oil. If
something, anything, keeps going up after point X is reached then point X
is not a peak.

> I guess, as prices increased so much, there are simply more wells
> profitable enough to pump.


>  > it is obvious (to me at least) that any reasonable alternative (nukes,
> solar) is not going to do the job alone.

You can never be certain how a new idea will turn out but it is not obvious
to me that Thorium reactors couldn't get the job done.

> > Unless some new tech emerges

But it IS obvious to me that new technology will be absolutely useless if
environmentalists get their way because they never met a energy source they
didn't hate. Wind farms are ugly, disrupt wind patterns are noisy and kill
birdies. Geothermal smells bad and causes earthquakes. Hydroelectric floods
the land and new dams may also cause earthquakes. Bio-fuel diverts needed
food production to fuel. Solar energy is so dilute that vast tracks of land
are needed and that will endanger a desert lizard you never heard of. And
of course there is the "N" word, the energy source so hated that tree
huggers dare not speak its name. I however sometimes take the heretical
view that the environmentalist's preferred solution to this problem,
freezing to death in the dark, may not be ideal.

> And BTW, I am not afraid neither of nukes nor of solar. I will be happy
> to have thorium in my basement and solar on the roof, please. And a
> computing cluster in between, of course. But I don't want coal plant
> nearby, and I don't want to live under wind turbine


  John K Clark
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