[ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?

[Eugen Leitl]

On Wed, May 08, 2013 at 10:37:16AM +0200, Tomaz Kristan wrote:
> > Yeah, they drill like the demented and get less and less per well and
> effort spent, and energy invested.
> 
> Where this newly needed energy to extract the oil comes from? I guess from
> the oil pumped out. So where is the problem?

The problem that intially EROEI (energy return on energy invested,
or net energy) was 100:1. Unconventional gases and liquids have
a low and *decreasing* EROEI (because the sweet spots are drilled
first).
 
> You don't imply that they use the solar and wind for it? (It would be good
> also, if you ask me. But there is no economically viable wind to help

If you buy chinese photovoltaics, it's made with dirty coal.
That's the best use of dirty coal, assuming you won't leave
it in the ground.

> pumping the oil. So they use the oil itself.)
> 
> 1 Gt of oil may stay under the ground, or we may use 1 Mt of it to pump 999
> Mt of this oil to the market. Even if it was 500 for 500 Mt, does not
> matter. Better 500 than 0.

No, it matters a lot: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8625

The cutoff is somewhere at 8:1 to 5:1. We're either already
there or below.