[ExI] Whatever happened to peak oil by 2020?

[Tomasz Rola]

On Wed, 8 May 2013, Eugen Leitl wrote:

> On Tue, May 07, 2013 at 08:04:22PM +0200, Tomasz Rola wrote:
> 
> > Perhaps this is some new kind of millenarianism. Or maybe there is 
> > existential risk. Problem is, I don't think we can be absolutely sure 
> > of numbers we've got. We are living in artificial domain, made of 
> > education,
> 
> I've been reading http://theoildrum.com/ for many years now, and their 
> numbers and forecasts held up a lot better than official ones (to the 
> point of official forecasts being running jokes, but of the unfunny 
> variety).

Well, I've been reading them for some/few years now (with breaks) and I 
really appreciate their work. But I, being raised in propaganda, 
appreciate the value of double checking information and am somewhat 
paranoid about it (not only it, actually, but that's irrelevant).

Besides, it is fun to dig some numbers and make one's own back of the Lisp 
interpreter calculations.

> I should say it surprises me that in 2013 most people have no clue what 
> Peak Fossil means, but unfortunately it doesn't surprise me. History may 
> not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

The so called people don't have a clue because most of the time (most of 
lifetime) we are going on autopilot, i.e. we are actually automatons 
switching from one state to another, the switch triggered by chemical 
substances (in majority if not all cases) - adrenaline here, endorphines 
there. This is called conservation of energy - brain remains in a standby. 
You can talk to them, but their logical circuits bounce the words away. I 
know, I was in this department already (albeit I was talking about 
M_soft, not oil, but the lesson has been learnt).

BTW, Eugen, did your folks display "glass eyes" when you talked to them? 
Just curious. Mine did. I may be pervert but I learned to find it funny (I 
am zodiacal Ram, heh, so I may be pervert and make fun of strange things 
all at the same time). I wonder if this phenomena is widespread or if it 
was just me.

> Good luck. We all are going to need it.

Yeah. Take a seat, get a popcorn. Or if you like doing some particular 
something, like experimenting with software, then do.

As of luck etc, I assume the future humanity will be even more dwarfs than 
today (not physically, actually medical dwarfs are great guys, just as 
everybody who overcomes his limitations, or at least tries in a convincing 
manner - so "normal humans" en masse do not qualify for greatness, it's 
just a bloody blob). I may live to see this, but that is not so much 
important, at least in my current mood (I am actually quite optimistic 
right now, just in case anybody wants to know if I have depression or 
worse - I don't think so). Just MHO.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **