[ExI] kepler study says 8.8e9 earthlike planets

[spike]

>. On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Subject: Re: [ExI] kepler study says 8.8e9 earthlike planets

 

On 2013-11-05 10:40, Adrian Tymes wrote:

That's the source of your confusion: the illusion of convenient numbers.
The actual percentages are probably unwieldy small fractions of a single
percent.  Nature doesn't care that we decimalize things.
>.Bah. See below. 



snip{...lots of waaaay cool mathematical reasoning}


>. So the rational thing is to expect *lots* of biospheres. Which is of
course not good news, since that makes a future Great Filter more likely. --
Dr Anders Sandberg

 

 

OK so this makes me think it is very possible that there is something very
fundamentally wrong with both models.  In the first case, we explain the
silence everywhere by recognizing the probability of what happened here must
be on the order of 1E-20.  That compels me to just say something must be
wrong with it.  Anders suggested the Great Filter model is more likely, but
even then, it just feels to me (ja, I recognize the universe doesn't care
how I feel) that occasionally some detectible signal would leak past the
Great Filter.

 

I do sincerely propose we keep thinking, hard, keep pondering and proposing
solutions, even if outlandish.  Both the above solutions (crazy coincidence
and Great Filter) just feel so wrong, even after correcting by F sub a, the
factor which compensates for human intuition vs the apathy of the universe
towards our human intuition.  Even after dividing through by Fa, it still
feels like the right answer isn't yet on our list of theories.  The latest
Kepler estimate reinforces that notion; if there really are ten billion
goldilocks planets per galaxy, the total silence is an anomalous observation
in both theories, a still unresolved puzzle.

 

Think!  Keep thinking!

 

spike

 

 
 
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