[ExI] What happens when Bitcoin goes to a million bucks?

[Max More]

Brent: You say that "Everyone should have at least one Bitcoin". I don't
pretend to have a good understanding of bitcoins, despite having read
(lightly) many posts here and some articles (such as the helpful one by
Keegan Macintosh in the November issue of *Cryonics*), but I do have the
strong feeling that I really ought to have a few of these peculiar things.
However, my impression is that it's now too late -- that you can only
generate new bitcoins if you have some fairly serious computing power.

Is this right? If so, are there any reasonably non-speculative ways to
acquire bitcoins?

My question is not just from a personal perspective. Several people would
like to pay for their some part of their cryopreservation (or gift Alcor)
using Bitcoins, so I would like to understand the situation better.

--Max



On Wed, Nov 6, 2013 at 10:12 PM, Brent Allsop <brent.allsop at canonizer.com>wrote:

>
> Transhumanist economists,
>
> As most of you know, in 2010, some guy purchased about $25 worth of
> Bitcoin, which is now worth over $800K.  My working hypothesis is that this
> will continue and that before 2020, Bitcoin will be worth a million bucks.
>  It's so funny to tell people that, and see them look at you with that
> "Your CRAZY" look in their eyes, as they say "A Bitcoin isn't going to be
> worth a million bucks!"
>
> Have you checked the price of Gold, lately?  It's been crashing,
> dramatically, for 2 years now.  Why do you think?  The so called gold
> experts, are saying things like:
>
> "The bear market in gold has been going on for two years. It seems to fly
> in the face of fundamentals, as central banks print enough currency to
> paper the world."
>
> Once you factor in the fact that there is a new competitor in town, and
> that people are starting to sell Gold to buy Bitcoin, that explains what
> otherwise doesn't make sense to these traditional gold "experts" that have
> made lots of money up till two years ago.  In other words, All the money
> that is in the pockets of holders of Gold, is now flowing into the pockets
> of holders of Bitcoins, at a very rapid rate.
>
> And My belief is that this Gold casualty that is just getting started, is
> just the first casualty.  It will soon spread to stocks, bonds, real
> estate, and anything with value that can be sold.  All the money in the
> pockets of the people holding them, will be quickly draining into the
> pockets of Bitcoiners at an increasing accelerating rate.
>
> Bitcoin, as many experts are starting to say: "is simply the best
> investment out there, bar none."  So what would you expect?  Money flows to
> where it is treated the best, just like water flows downhill.  And if you
> have a Bitcoin in your pocket, that is looking increasingly tempting.
>
> As the cost of money and interest rates starts to skyrocket, as all
> sources of capital continue to flow into Bitcoin what will happen? I think
> at least the following will happen:
>
> 1.    People will be selling anything they can liquidate, so they can buy
> Bitcoin.  Even at a loss, since that loss will soon be made up for, once it
> is in Bitcoin.  (Do you think a tax penalty of 10%, will stop people from
> liquidating their IRAs?)
> 2.    People will be borrowing money, mortgaging things, like their house,
> to buy Bitcoins, because no interest rate will come close to the rate at
> which Bitcoin will continue to go up.
> 3.    The price of stocks will decline.  The PE ratio of stocks has
> historically been at around 20.   This will drop by half or more, as nobody
> will want to buy stocks, unless it is a very good value.  The greatly
> reduced PE, will become "the new normal" and it will be much harder to make
> money by going public.
> 4.    Interest rates will go up significantly, because of the demand for
> money, to buy Bitcoins.
> 5.    The economy will convert from a consumer economy with lots of debt
> to everyone will only want to only buy something when they absolutely need
> it.  As it will be far better to spend it on something that will be worth
> 10 times its value in a year or so.  It will convert to a bit time saving
> economy.  Will this stabilize the boom and bust cycle?
> 6.    The Winklevoss twins will be laughing at Facebook, and Zukkerberg,
> as Facebook  stock price continues to decline and fails to keep pace with
> their 1% of all bitcoins.
>
> When we head into a recession, the fed lowers the interest rate to Zero to
> provide 'liquidity' and in hopes people will borrow money to invest in the
> economy.  But this doesn't work very well as there is nothing that is
> making money, to make it worth borrowing during a recession.
>
> But Bitcoin will change this dramatically.  Everyone will want to borrow
> money even more in a recession, as recession will cause Bitcoins to go up
> even faster than they are now.  People will have even less motivation to
> invest in the economy.  So there will be two market forces.  Bitcoins
> driving up interest rates, and the federal reserve printing money and
> trying to lower interest rates.  People will be borrowing this printed
> money, purchasing Bitcions.  WIll that cause rapid inflation of fiat
> currency?
>
> Who will win such an epic battle between Bitcoin trying to increasa
> interest rates, and the Fed trying to lower them?  What will the effect be,
> when Bitcoin starts rapidly approaching one million $$ ?
>
> My minds seems to get all scrambled when I try to analyze such.  Can you
> guys help provide some additional rational to my attempt to get my head
> around what could happen?  Could everyone brainstorm some of the long term
> possibilities, here?
>
> I've tried to browse some of the Bitcoins forums for some intelligent
> information on this, but all of them are idiots that can only think
> linearly, and they haven't got a clue.  While Transhumanists are good at
> thinking exponentially.  So, what are some of the more extreme
> possibilities you guys see?
>
> One thing I feel for sure.  Everyone should have at last one Bitcoin.  And
> people only say there is no such thing as a "Get Rich Quick Scheme",
> because they don't know how close the singularity is.
>
> Brent Allsop
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
http://www.amazon.com/Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-Technology-Philosophy/dp/1118334310/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1372225570&sr=1-1&keywords=the+transhumanist+reader
President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20131106/fa81d306/attachment.html>