[ExI] kepler study says 8.8e9 earthlike planets

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

On Tue, Nov 5, 2013 at 9:17 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
> OK so this makes me think it is very possible that there is something very
> fundamentally wrong with both models.  In the first case, we explain the
> silence everywhere by recognizing the probability of what happened here must
> be on the order of 1E-20.  That compels me to just say something must be
> wrong with it.  Anders suggested the Great Filter model is more likely, but
> even then, it just feels to me (ja, I recognize the universe doesn’t care
> how I feel) that occasionally some detectible signal would leak past the
> Great Filter.

### Paradoxically, these extremely large numbers make me much more
sanguine about the Great Filter in our future. As long as the
predicted filter is supposed to claim 90 - 99 % of our futures, it's
worrisome, because it's realistic, even when vague on the physical
details - but once the prediction claims a 99.9999999 % likelihood of
our imminent destruction, I know I can relax. I cannot imagine any
physical process, known or plausible, that would with 99.9999999
likelihood eliminate civilizations like us, just on the cusp of
starting a wave of interstellar expansion.

Can anybody give plausible candidates for the actual physical
implementation of this extremely high efficiency Great Filter?

Rafal