[ExI] kepler study says 8.8e9 earthlike planets

[spike]

>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] kepler study says 8.8e9 earthlike planets

On Thu, Nov 7, 2013 at 3:53 PM, spike wrote:

>>...  Problem: the NASA  findings increased by four orders of magnitude the
number of expected... 

>...You've even got Bloomberg worrying about it now!

BillK, not I have got.  NASA's got.  I didn't do the study or write the
report.

<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-06/don-t-believe-in-aliens-maybe-you-
re-the-crazy-one.html>
Quote:
>...Fermi's question remains unanswered. But it only grows more compelling,
and more perplexing, with each new discovery.  BillK

_______________________________________________

So before this NASA study came out, did you have an estimate of the number
of Goldilocks planets?  I did: my ROM estimated was about a million or so,
just by saying perhaps there is some reason why a Goldie needs a main
sequence population 1 yellow dwarf with spectral type G2, old enough to have
planets congealed out of a dust lane.  Then I estimated a typical Goldilocks
band and came up with about a million such Goldies in the galaxy.

So those who remember, did you have numbers in that OOM?  Who had one
greater than ten billion?  What was your reasoning?  Who had one more than
an order below a million?  Reasoning?

In retrospect, I may have been letting Fermi influence my estimate downward,
because I may have unconsciously been trying for an explanation of the
silence based on the (probably absurd) notion that there just weren't enough
decent planets out there.

spike