[ExI] Review of Antifragile

[BillK]

On Tue, Nov 12, 2013 at 6:03 PM, Dan Ust wrote:
> http://www.mises.org/emails/QJAE/QJAE_16_3_Howden.html
>
>

The trouble with getting an Austrian economist to review the book is
that he criticizes it whenever it doesn't fit in with Austrian
economics theory and reckons that it would be greatly improved by
adding Austrian propaganda.

For a more balanced (and enthusiastic) review:
<http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/12/12/1169331/-Book-Review-Antifragile>
Quote:
Every once in a while, a book comes out with ideas that are like
fireworks. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book "Antifragile" is a explosion
of life changing ideas.

Even thinking that things are predictable makes us more fragile for we
invest in that vision of the future and optimize for that single
future. "Life is lived forward, but remembered backward." We as humans
are prone to single path thinking. Our human minds make up narratives
to fit circumstances retroactively. Even a false narrative will make
us feel better. Predictions are based on normal variations and the
recent past which ignores a Hurricane Sandy. The author describes
Hurricane Sandy events as Black Swan events. These are events that are
so rare that no one anticipates them.

A very-smart corporate turkey is being fed for a thousand days by a
butcher. A staff of analysts say that butchers love turkeys and the
future looks brighter and hopeful with each passing day. The positive
outlook has a greater statistical significance each day. The turkey
assumes from the past that since there was no harm so far that there
will be no harm in the future. Then butchering day comes!

So then how can we win as turkeys in this world, when we cannot know
who is the butcher and when butchering day happens? Here is where
Taleb's book shines with practical suggestions.
-----------


BillK