From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 00:06:41 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 18:06:41 -0600
Subject: [ExI] roboburgers to go
In-Reply-To: <5243FA9A.5080205@organicrobot.com>
References: <0a1801ceb94d$bc6a3360$353e9a20$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <CAPy8RwaUth4qnvcNN1GOM_Us+GTBB4P9j67x7BKoazD=-isWEA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Sep 26, 2013 at 3:12 AM, Alejandro Dubrovsky <alito at organicrobot.com
> wrote:

> On 26/09/13 06:53, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> > On Tue, Sep 24, 2013 at 2:26 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net
> >
> > The front could be semi-automated much faster than the kitchen. I'm
> > actually surprised that they haven't turned the cash registers around on
> > the front desk in McDonalds they way they have at Home Depot, Walmart
> > and some supermarkets around here.
> >
> >
> One of my local McDonalds tried it for a while, but the experiment
> didn't last long and the machines got taken out. The interface seems
> surprisingly hard to get right. Too many products, too many ingredients
> that people can and do individually take out or add. Everyone skipped
> the machines and long-queued at the human-operated registers (I did too,
> even though I am a strictly machine-only queuer at the supermarket). I
> suspect that they'll have to go with either a short-list of classic
> options only, or very good speech recognition.
>

While that may be entirely true, and I don't doubt it, I still think that
is easier than automating the kitchen.

Ray Kurzweil's consistently poorest prediction is the "when speech
recognition will take off" which I attribute to his bias as part owner of
the largest and most successful speech recognition program/company on the
planet. (wishful thinking has struck down better thinkers than Kurzweil.)

I own Dragon, but I rarely use it myself, despite being a pretty big fan.
The bottom line is that people just don't want to talk to a machine, or at
least to one that doesn't talk back. I think if you got the feedback
correct, i.e. there is a video recording of a pretty young (possibly
topless) lady doing every possible combination of asking for your order,
there will be little chance of getting it right enough for most people to
use.

-Kelly
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 00:19:07 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 18:19:07 -0600
Subject: [ExI] roboburgers to go
In-Reply-To: <04c901cebad8$13a6bdc0$3af43940$@att.net>
References: <0a1801ceb94d$bc6a3360$353e9a20$@att.net>
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On Thu, Sep 26, 2013 at 10:47 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> I am open to suggestion from anyone here on teaching my mathematically
> talented 7 yr old.  He is performing actual algebra and geometry in the
> second grade, no fooling.  His entire top row on his Khan Academy board is
> dark blue, 134 skills mastered and nearly a hundred more level 1s and 2s.
> I have him doing Blender and Excel macros.
>
> ** **
>
> Question please, what does a father teach a son today, assuming access to
> the collective  wisdom of years represented by this group?****
>
>
> Anders, Kelly, Eugen, Keith, anyone else especially fathers, what do we do
> now, coach?
>

I'm sure he knows statistics by now, but just in case he doesn't, you
should definitely have him go through that. Not the nasty Calculus kind,
but the kinder gentler kind.

When Kasey asked what to study in college a couple of years ago, I
suggested some sort of Biotechnology or nanotechnology. She is now pursuing
a career in bioengineering.

With a seven year old though, the answer is harder than for a 20 year old.
There is another decade of progress that will go by before he really has to
decide. For example, autonomous vehicles will likely be a solved problem by
the time he gets to college, so while that might be a good choice today, it
probably wouldn't be in ten years.

However, I don't think you could possibly go wrong in the meantime learning
Chemistry (both Organic and Inorganic), Materials science, Physics, and
just about anything really creative.

Art, it's going to be big when the machines take over.

I also think introducing him to the concepts of open source (not just for
programming), crowdfunding, crowdsourcing, outsourcing (aka
Speaking/Reading/Writing English really really well) and interpersonal
communications are all really critical.

A good foundation of psychology so that he doesn't marry a crazy person
(speaking from LOTS of personal experience here) is also critical to a
happy and successful life.

I could probably talk about this all day, but I must make dinner now. Oh,
cooking. That would be good.

-Kelly
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From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 00:28:29 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 17:28:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] roboburgers to go
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8Rwbj6uhjYtv15fekg-sSjCvOYGiqmDWWAcK0wWfrG227ng@mail.gmail.com>
References: <0a1801ceb94d$bc6a3360$353e9a20$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <CALAdGNRAVU2CS3TU4MCar8J1T80B4h6E3haiJYKiNnKTPL-Pbw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sep 30, 2013 5:20 PM, "Kelly Anderson" <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:
> I could probably talk about this all day, but I must make dinner now. Oh,
cooking. That would be good.

Quite.  Basic cooking is often underappreciated as an introduction to
making physical things.  Plus, it is a practical skill of potential
immediate use: have him try making dinner once in a while.

(Not to mention its use in obtaining friends and favors once he enters
college.  I speak from personal experience there, on something I have much
reason to believe has not changed since.)
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 00:29:34 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 18:29:34 -0600
Subject: [ExI] roboburgers to go
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB4-6M0n=0oYpX8UHtHpzO847ghZUjZgq-bxrudnWw6QwQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB4-6M0n=0oYpX8UHtHpzO847ghZUjZgq-bxrudnWw6QwQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZLXNH31ZnTwQiVfwkzTUzZ7ObkkAcvi6d+KLSbm3mcDw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Sep 26, 2013 at 8:46 PM, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com>wrote:

>
> It's almost as bad as chipping rocks to get a sharp edge (which I can also
> do).
>

That's one that I would definitely want to keep on the list of things to
learn. I mean maybe Eugen is right after all... Knowing how to brain tan
leather... that's another one that should definitely stay on the list as
well.

-Kelly
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From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 00:38:53 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 17:38:53 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Open source programs to get more kids to code
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armihPnKXBPm5M9U123Vp=Ru99+NX1Br9ekQOjgxzAdK-gA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armihPnKXBPm5M9U123Vp=Ru99+NX1Br9ekQOjgxzAdK-gA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRimSMPiYCHnr2y0P-BkC2Ynhobni9azGMb3otqFZd7yA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sep 30, 2013 6:37 AM, "BillK" <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> For some reason boys don?t seem
> to like Alice very much

> the edit screen is not your standard
> 'code' view, instead it?s friendly to kids by giving them pull down
> menus of actions.

Uh huh.  "Friendly".  And have they tested a "standard code view", much
less an IDE that catches basic mistakes like a missing }, on these same
kids?  (Not hypothetical kids, not their own if their own wouldn't be using
Alice outside of the test, but the same actual users.)

Even kids can be turned off by UIs that get in the user's way.
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 00:59:13 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 18:59:13 -0600
Subject: [ExI] roboburgers to go
In-Reply-To: <524815EA.9060408@aleph.se>
References: <0a1801ceb94d$bc6a3360$353e9a20$@att.net>
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On Sun, Sep 29, 2013 at 5:58 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2013-09-29 10:51, BillK wrote:
>
>>
>> Sure, people have different views on what we really ought to do. But that
> doesn't relativize moral truth any more than the fact that people have had
> different views on the shape of the earth changes what shape it really is.
> There could be a One True Moral System that we may or may not have found.
> The deep question is of course if the OTMS exists, how it exists, and if we
> can know it. In practice, however, moral systems do have sensible and
> actionable ideas that should be followed, especially when several agree
> with each other.


Now there is a job that just perhaps no machine will ever be able to figure
out... LOL.


> And, of course, the people employed in nasty jobs might object
>
>> strongly to being told that their job has been eliminated.
>>
>
> Should we introduce a cheap shipwrecking robot that would prevent
> Pakistani children from making a living in the industry, yet save their
> health? It is nontrivial, sure. But what about medical robots that make
> medical care cheaper? Some doctors and nurses will be forced to do
> different jobs, but healthcare will become cheaper and easier to provide to
> poor people. Now, the occupation doctor is not so bad that it ought not
> exist. It is just consequentially a good thing if it could be done with a
> gadget. There are other jobs (fluffers, sewage workers, guano or sulphur
> collectors, CTS decon or porta potty cleaners) where I think a very strong
> case can be made in nearly every moral system that it would be good for the
> workers if that work did not exist.
>

I resent fluffers being put into the same category as porta potty cleaners.
Aside from that one man's child labor is another man's automation.

I have no doubt there are some people doing horrible things who actually
> love their jobs. But if those are rare in the occupation, you have a good
> reason to suspect that the occupation ought to go.


According to Mike Rowe, loving dirty jobs is more of the norm than the
exception. For example, I would much prefer operating an excavator to
programming a computer, but there is just no money in it. My most favorite
job of all time was planting pineapples, which was backbreaking even at 16.
But the views of Kaho'Olawe were just to die for.


> The transhuman enhancement of morality is a dangerous concept. One
>
>> man's morality is another man's oppression.
>>
>
> Only if you try to impose your morality on others. See the work on the
> ethics of moral enhancement we have done in Oxford: there are plenty of
> things that might be doable that would make people better able to act
> morally without prescribing what morality to believe in.


There are things we all could likely agree on. While child labor is
relative, child pornography probably isn't.

-Kelly
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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 01:16:06 2013
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 20:16:06 -0500
Subject: [ExI] roboburgers to go
In-Reply-To: <0a1801ceb94d$bc6a3360$353e9a20$@att.net>
References: <0a1801ceb94d$bc6a3360$353e9a20$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPd79pDEg54reJsm4UxFxd--06rMv=fvtqTc5CKor16R5w@mail.gmail.com>

There is only one solution. Automate everything and give people a living
salary. Wealth should be shared.
Otherwise Elysium scenarios would ensue.
Give paradise to everybody.
Only way.
Giovanni



On Tue, Sep 24, 2013 at 12:44 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> ** **
>
> We knew this was going to happen eventually.  A local company did this.
> The timing is interesting, since the fast food workers are threatening to
> strike unless their wages are raised way above minimum.  Check it outwardly:
> ****
>
> ** **
>
> http://momentummachines.com/#team****
>
> ** **
>
> spike****
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From msd001 at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 02:44:15 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 22:44:15 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZdcDR53=C7JjjNj8Xaoh=5oF=GB2mGnyXkZr-Xk5_7kg@mail.gmail.com>
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On Mon, Sep 30, 2013 at 7:59 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>wrote:

> On Mon, Sep 30, 2013 at 12:47 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On Fri, Sep 27, 2013  Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>> If it's all hopeless then what's the point of blabbing about it? Let us
>> enjoy the little time we have left! And I still haven't heard if you've
>> accepted my bet about the shortage of uranium, remember $1000 can buy a lot
>> of cans of beans that will come in handy after the apocalypse.
>>
>
> Perhaps if you bet $1000 worth of gold at today's prices, or $1000 worth
> of today's Bitcoin you'll get a bite... :-)  Since everything is going to
> hell, $1000 may only buy ONE can of beans after the apocalypse.
>
>
Maybe they should cut out the squabbling over "storage of value" in
arbitrary currency and just bet directly in beans.  (or cans of beans if
one is extremely confident)  I guess we'll have to figure some exchange
rate from USD->BTC->PAB.  It'll be interesting because demand for Post
Apocalypse Bean supplies goes way up just as the exchanges for BTC cease to
exist.
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From msd001 at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 03:16:55 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 23:16:55 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Open source programs to get more kids to code
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRimSMPiYCHnr2y0P-BkC2Ynhobni9azGMb3otqFZd7yA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armihPnKXBPm5M9U123Vp=Ru99+NX1Br9ekQOjgxzAdK-gA@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAOJFdbK68eMZLZeRdBxVoA_7nGNmp=tDtAdYQR9OHkV3+Zj57Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Sep 30, 2013 at 8:38 PM, Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sep 30, 2013 6:37 AM, "BillK" <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> > For some reason boys don?t seem
> > to like Alice very much
>
> > the edit screen is not your standard
>
> > 'code' view, instead it?s friendly to kids by giving them pull down
> > menus of actions.
>
> Uh huh.  "Friendly".  And have they tested a "standard code view", much
> less an IDE that catches basic mistakes like a missing }, on these same
> kids?  (Not hypothetical kids, not their own if their own wouldn't be using
> Alice outside of the test, but the same actual users.)
>
> Even kids can be turned off by UIs that get in the user's way.
>
>
I used Alice for a multimedia class.  I wish the code IDE could be retooled
for web scripting environments like javascript, php, and sql.  I don't
think it would work as well for huge projects, but we shouldn't be building
huge monolithic projects these days anyway, right?  I also feel like
Alice's drag & drop coding would be excellent for touch interface.  If
Alice-style IDE and Firebug-style editor combined, programming would be
much more intuitive.

as far as the "storytelling" Alice goes, I doubt it is obvious that "boys
don't like Alice very much."  I think it is more likely that girls prefer
the storytelling, stage directing, control of the 'action' that is afforded
them in the storytelling Alice mod.  I wonder if this is a gender bias that
we're still programming onto children.

Anyway, I wanted to endorse Alice for being a pretty cool project overall.
I went looking for other game-like means of teaching programming.  One of
my favorite back-in-the-day Apple //c games was Omega.  Your battle
winnings could be used to purchase better virtual tank hardware and the
clever/efficient "AI" software you wrote for it is what gave you any hope
of surviving battles vs other tanks.  Yes it was primitive; and it was fun.

I'm not sure if we can teach that experience as "fun" anymore.  It seems
like any activity that takes more than 3-4 minutes to learn and start
receiving positive reward feedback is probably going to be abandoned for
those that do.  Maybe we're not yet wireheaded, but it seems we're heading
towards wireheading even if it's wireless by the time we arrive.
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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Oct  1 03:58:36 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 20:58:36 -0700
Subject: [ExI] watch yourself: volunteers needed
Message-ID: <003001cebe5a$82103f40$8630bdc0$@att.net>

 

 

>.If the government shutdown proceeds tomorrow, we need volunteers to spy on
themselves.I will start setting the example by noting the contents of this
post.  Recognizing that I wrote it, I will become suspicious of myself as
possibly being some kind of snarky subversive.  If l watch me will you watch
you?  If so, can we report each other to ourselves in this forum?  Spike

 

 

Requisition cancelled!  The shutdown is going ahead in three minutes.  But
the NSA is immune.  We no longer need to watch ourselves.  Our government
will do it for us:

 


Government shutdown won't shut down NSA spying


Published September 30, 2013 

watchdog.org <http://watchdog.org/> 

Facebook
<http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/09/30/government-shutdown-wont-shut-do
wn-nsa-spying/> 183 Twitter
<http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/09/30/government-shutdown-wont-shut-do
wn-nsa-spying/> 86 LinkedIn
<http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/09/30/government-shutdown-wont-shut-do
wn-nsa-spying/> 0 

ADVERTISEMENT

Unless Congress can agree on a new budget, the federal government will shut
down midnight Monday.  

But that's unlikely to stop the massive spy machine at the National Security
Agency. 

The possible government shutdown would affect bureaucrats, park rangers and
countless other government employees and contractors across the country.
Even three-quarters of the White House staff would be sent home. 

But "essential personnel" and services would stay online -- including the
NSA's surveillance operations. 

"A shutdown would be unlikely to affect core NSA operations," a government
official familiar with the plans told The Hill on Thursday
<http://thehill.com/blogs/hillicon-valley/technology/324857-government-shutd
own-unlikely-to-curb-nsa-spying> . 

 

 

 

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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 04:24:08 2013
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 21:24:08 -0700
Subject: [ExI] watch yourself: volunteers needed
In-Reply-To: <003001cebe5a$82103f40$8630bdc0$@att.net>
References: <003001cebe5a$82103f40$8630bdc0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy0ixA15XRbvn0-aHpfOUYHkZJLSM=uYPqFW_fJDUR2HnQ@mail.gmail.com>

This disturbed me, though the man in question suffers from terrible
judgment, and also needs to take a course in proper grammar...


http://www.sott.net/article/266872-They-proved-him-right-FBI-interrogated-man-after-comment-about-police-state-on-Facebook


John

On 9/30/13, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>>.If the government shutdown proceeds tomorrow, we need volunteers to spy
>> on
> themselves.I will start setting the example by noting the contents of this
> post.  Recognizing that I wrote it, I will become suspicious of myself as
> possibly being some kind of snarky subversive.  If l watch me will you
> watch
> you?  If so, can we report each other to ourselves in this forum?  Spike
>
>
>
>
>
> Requisition cancelled!  The shutdown is going ahead in three minutes.  But
> the NSA is immune.  We no longer need to watch ourselves.  Our government
> will do it for us:
>
>
>
>
> Government shutdown won't shut down NSA spying
>
>
> Published September 30, 2013
>
> watchdog.org <http://watchdog.org/>
>
> Facebook
> <http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/09/30/government-shutdown-wont-shut-do
> wn-nsa-spying/> 183 Twitter
> <http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/09/30/government-shutdown-wont-shut-do
> wn-nsa-spying/> 86 LinkedIn
> <http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/09/30/government-shutdown-wont-shut-do
> wn-nsa-spying/> 0
>
> ADVERTISEMENT
>
> Unless Congress can agree on a new budget, the federal government will shut
> down midnight Monday.
>
> But that's unlikely to stop the massive spy machine at the National
> Security
> Agency.
>
> The possible government shutdown would affect bureaucrats, park rangers and
> countless other government employees and contractors across the country.
> Even three-quarters of the White House staff would be sent home.
>
> But "essential personnel" and services would stay online -- including the
> NSA's surveillance operations.
>
> "A shutdown would be unlikely to affect core NSA operations," a government
> official familiar with the plans told The Hill on Thursday
> <http://thehill.com/blogs/hillicon-valley/technology/324857-government-shutd
> own-unlikely-to-curb-nsa-spying> .
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>


From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 04:48:07 2013
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 21:48:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Space X's Falcon 9 Launch
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy0dd7GC_-M_kKoTxtPVeMusZvXexJ8P3T0e_Kc+nzFENQ@mail.gmail.com>

Exciting news!

http://venturebeat.com/2013/09/30/spacexs-60-more-powerful-falcon-9-rocket-can-lift-a-skyscraper-be-reused/#ugfoTlmc2lpSMdk8.99


John


From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 04:49:23 2013
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 21:49:23 -0700
Subject: [ExI] What will be the next gene therapy?
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy1-zVVTuzCgRcpaGDQsayp5S8rsZUmO9AXPM-w1OEhKpg@mail.gmail.com>

Things are progressing...

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/519071/when-will-gene-therapy-come-to-the-us/


John


From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 04:54:50 2013
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 21:54:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Engineers invent programming language to to build synthetic
	DNA
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy2jfR1c72BAWnc8ykA7fVGfA8RYEOWf8Z5S-ywDowzYqA@mail.gmail.com>

I find this rather enthralling...  I love to think about where this will
take us in twenty or thirty years...

http://phys.org/news/2013-09-language-synthetic-dna.html


John  : )
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From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 07:11:46 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2013 00:11:46 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Space X's Falcon 9 Launch
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy0dd7GC_-M_kKoTxtPVeMusZvXexJ8P3T0e_Kc+nzFENQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy0dd7GC_-M_kKoTxtPVeMusZvXexJ8P3T0e_Kc+nzFENQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQSyTH89Hk13r5=OJ6SGKt=TN4n=OaRzF2SO5KvtKCCmQ@mail.gmail.com>

Let's hope it doesn't turn out to be just another rebuildable, like the
shuttle.  Though there are signs that won't be the case this time.


On Mon, Sep 30, 2013 at 9:48 PM, John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>wrote:

> Exciting news!
>
>
> http://venturebeat.com/2013/09/30/spacexs-60-more-powerful-falcon-9-rocket-can-lift-a-skyscraper-be-reused/#ugfoTlmc2lpSMdk8.99
>
>
> John
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From rahmans at me.com  Tue Oct  1 07:39:44 2013
From: rahmans at me.com (Omar Rahman)
Date: Tue, 01 Oct 2013 09:39:44 +0200
Subject: [ExI] =?windows-1252?q?Tap_tap=85=2EHello=3F_Is_this_thing_on=3F_?=
 =?windows-1252?q?=28Or_Zombie_Apocalypse!=29?=
In-Reply-To: <mailman.4.1380589161.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.4.1380589161.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <3BE3E642-B8AF-4182-99D4-3AADE05D500C@me.com>



Dear All,

Forget 'philosophical zombies', we have 'political zombies' in Washington. The shambling horde emerging from K street alone is enough to terrify the sane.

So, how are you all doing in the post apocalyptic libertarian paradise? This is twice now that the Disciples of Reagan have acted on his proclamation "Government is the problem!" I wonder how the markets will react to this elimination of government. That's the true test of anything and everything, right?

Media pundits are coming for our brains......*crash* .....*bang*.......*aaaaahhhhhhHHHHaaaAAAAa* .....braaiiins............braaaaiiiiiinnnnnnssss............

Braaaaaaaaiiiiinnnnnnnns,

Omar Rahman


From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 08:01:11 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2013 01:01:11 -0700
Subject: [ExI]
	=?windows-1252?q?Tap_tap=85=2EHello=3F_Is_this_thing_on=3F_?=
	=?windows-1252?q?=28Or_Zombie_Apocalypse!=29?=
In-Reply-To: <3BE3E642-B8AF-4182-99D4-3AADE05D500C@me.com>
References: <mailman.4.1380589161.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <3BE3E642-B8AF-4182-99D4-3AADE05D500C@me.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSFi75=K6yPKO=czOKwGsHSGxAHJgeuxuCxf4v8jb0Q-w@mail.gmail.com>

Not so much.  Only bits of the government are getting shut down.  More may
get suspended the longer this goes on.

This happened before, a bit under two decades ago.  Then as now, Republican
Congress vs. Democratic President.  Then as now, the public backed the
President.  Last time was some days until the Republicans found out they
really didn't have public support, and backed down.  This time they seem
more ideological, and more extremist (in part because they're fighting a
black President: some of them have all but openly admitted racist
motivations).  That probably means it'll take longer.

What will be more interesting, for good or for ill, is if they haven't
backed down by the time the debt ceiling must be raised.  I hear the
deadline is currently projected to be October 17th.  Forcing the US to
default is no mere shutdown.


On Tue, Oct 1, 2013 at 12:39 AM, Omar Rahman <rahmans at me.com> wrote:

>
>
> Dear All,
>
> Forget 'philosophical zombies', we have 'political zombies' in Washington.
> The shambling horde emerging from K street alone is enough to terrify the
> sane.
>
> So, how are you all doing in the post apocalyptic libertarian paradise?
> This is twice now that the Disciples of Reagan have acted on his
> proclamation "Government is the problem!" I wonder how the markets will
> react to this elimination of government. That's the true test of anything
> and everything, right?
>
> Media pundits are coming for our brains......*crash*
> .....*bang*.......*aaaaahhhhhhHHHHaaaAAAAa*
> .....braaiiins............braaaaiiiiiinnnnnnssss............
>
> Braaaaaaaaiiiiinnnnnnnns,
>
> Omar Rahman
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Oct  1 11:09:28 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2013 13:09:28 +0200
Subject: [ExI]
 =?utf-8?q?Tap_tap=E2=80=A6=2EHello=3F_Is_this_thing_on=3F_?=
 =?utf-8?q?=28Or_Zombie_Apocalypse!=29?=
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNSFi75=K6yPKO=czOKwGsHSGxAHJgeuxuCxf4v8jb0Q-w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.4.1380589161.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <3BE3E642-B8AF-4182-99D4-3AADE05D500C@me.com>
 <CALAdGNSFi75=K6yPKO=czOKwGsHSGxAHJgeuxuCxf4v8jb0Q-w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131001110927.GI10405@leitl.org>

On Tue, Oct 01, 2013 at 01:01:11AM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:

> What will be more interesting, for good or for ill, is if they haven't
> backed down by the time the debt ceiling must be raised.  I hear the
> deadline is currently projected to be October 17th.  Forcing the US to
> default is no mere shutdown.

The US is bankrupt. (Most countries are in fact bankrupt). 
Provoking the sovereign default now would be perhaps smarter than 
having it happen latter, out of your control. Of course this will 
crash the world economy, but that's also going to happen, anyway.


From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 11:27:35 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2013 12:27:35 +0100
Subject: [ExI]
	=?windows-1252?q?Tap_tap=85=2EHello=3F_Is_this_thing_on=3F_?=
	=?windows-1252?q?=28Or_Zombie_Apocalypse!=29?=
In-Reply-To: <20131001110927.GI10405@leitl.org>
References: <mailman.4.1380589161.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <3BE3E642-B8AF-4182-99D4-3AADE05D500C@me.com>
 <CALAdGNSFi75=K6yPKO=czOKwGsHSGxAHJgeuxuCxf4v8jb0Q-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131001110927.GI10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAL_armg0FvU=CPfiWH-7ic8eOUPNaHsVr-CgtMTO8esU=4mbAw@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Oct 1, 2013 at 12:09 PM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> The US is bankrupt. (Most countries are in fact bankrupt).
> Provoking the sovereign default now would be perhaps smarter than
> having it happen latter, out of your control. Of course this will
> crash the world economy, but that's also going to happen, anyway.
>

Only the time of the default would be under their control. Thereafter
chaos ensues.
So perhaps they would like a few more years to stockpile and prepare
before defaulting.
Might as well keep the printing presses running while the good times roll.
(Good times for the top 1% only, but that's what matters).

BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Oct  1 11:39:11 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2013 13:39:11 +0200
Subject: [ExI]
 =?utf-8?q?Tap_tap=E2=80=A6=2EHello=3F_Is_this_thing_on=3F_?=
 =?utf-8?q?=28Or_Zombie_Apocalypse!=29?=
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armg0FvU=CPfiWH-7ic8eOUPNaHsVr-CgtMTO8esU=4mbAw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.4.1380589161.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <3BE3E642-B8AF-4182-99D4-3AADE05D500C@me.com>
 <CALAdGNSFi75=K6yPKO=czOKwGsHSGxAHJgeuxuCxf4v8jb0Q-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131001110927.GI10405@leitl.org>
 <CAL_armg0FvU=CPfiWH-7ic8eOUPNaHsVr-CgtMTO8esU=4mbAw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131001113911.GM10405@leitl.org>

On Tue, Oct 01, 2013 at 12:27:35PM +0100, BillK wrote:

> Only the time of the default would be under their control. Thereafter
> chaos ensues.

Sure thing. 

> So perhaps they would like a few more years to stockpile and prepare
> before defaulting.

They didn't bother to prepare for it before, why should you expect they'll 
plan for a managed collapse in future? The sooner it blows, the less
the damage, after the smoke clears. Percussive maintenance of the economy;
it's the only thing left.

> Might as well keep the printing presses running while the good times roll.

It does indeed work very well, until it doesn't. 

> (Good times for the top 1% only, but that's what matters).

Technically it's more ~0.1%, but, yes.


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Oct  1 12:18:29 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2013 14:18:29 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?
In-Reply-To: <op.w369gtne0wog37@kira>
References: <CAJPayv1=z+Zhoq9OWo7S5KCowPWK4SQ+92ZVZQ2AB5gVn6wGcQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1309231809110.19013@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CAJPayv1Ff=0hBOKD5jPRcSLHBrAcy7dLZ4_wOBiEv3QjXVzgmA@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1309252015040.15780@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CAJPayv12Vc4be8rpo1-KrzQ4H_=mNmXE2WhNCpfi3RFS132cdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1309262025400.9022@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CAJPayv3G4ST+1Ha6CG3oBpGmgTW3jvBB_YkF82vTftSAWQvERQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <op.w31sxyu40wog37@kira> <20130927055747.GI10405@leitl.org>
 <op.w369gtne0wog37@kira>
Message-ID: <20131001121829.GR10405@leitl.org>

On Mon, Sep 30, 2013 at 02:08:43PM +1300, Andrew Mckee wrote:
> On Fri, 27 Sep 2013 17:57:47 +1200, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> 
> >Because alternative fuelcycle MSR breeders are an unsolved problem.
> >Nobody knows if they can be made to work eventually,
> 
> So more research and development is needed to figure out if they are

We need to be 90% done by 2050. This means that nuclear energy
sources will be not a noticeable part (<<1 TW) of the transition.

> feasible, isn't that pretty much par for the course of every new
> piece of complex technology humans have invented?

Alternative fuelcycle research programs (these which have not been
shut down due to problems) are alive and well all over the world.
Yet they have not been able to produce a solution in over half
a century. Including ability to draw funding, even from their
more enthusiastic proponents. 
 
> >but even if,
> >we already know they would come too late to make a difference.
> 
> Too late, how so?, surely everything arrives into existence right
> after some clever person(s) gets off their ass and decides to make
> something useful, exactly when is of more interest to historians I

Infrastructure work is not an idea, or a mobile app. Look at the
last time we did it. Try ordering a synfuel plant on Amazon.

> would think.


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue Oct  1 16:15:25 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2013 12:15:25 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?
In-Reply-To: <20131001121829.GR10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAJPayv1=z+Zhoq9OWo7S5KCowPWK4SQ+92ZVZQ2AB5gVn6wGcQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1309231809110.19013@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CAJPayv1Ff=0hBOKD5jPRcSLHBrAcy7dLZ4_wOBiEv3QjXVzgmA@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1309252015040.15780@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CAJPayv12Vc4be8rpo1-KrzQ4H_=mNmXE2WhNCpfi3RFS132cdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1309262025400.9022@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CAJPayv3G4ST+1Ha6CG3oBpGmgTW3jvBB_YkF82vTftSAWQvERQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <op.w31sxyu40wog37@kira> <20130927055747.GI10405@leitl.org>
 <op.w369gtne0wog37@kira> <20131001121829.GR10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3Pndq94OgFqquG2N-zWg2yKjDZGLqhq0CGHxNEjYOySQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Oct 1, 2013 at 8:18 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> We need to be 90% done by 2050. This means that nuclear energy
> sources will be not a noticeable part


Today France delivers over 75% of its electricity from nuclear energy, but
even with ridiculous subsidies wind power couldn't do better than 3% in
2012. So I ask you, which technology is more likely to play a noticeable
part in the production of energy in 2050, wind or nuclear?

> Alternative fuelcycle research programs (these which have not been shut
> down due to problems) are alive and well all over the world.
>

Over the last several decades the worldwide research budget for Liquid
Fluoride Thorium Reactors wouldn't be enough to cover the operational costs
of a average sized McDonald's restaurant, and the reason for that is people
like you would organize protest marches against any politician who even
whispered the N word in his sleep.

  John K Clark
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From ALONZOTG at verizon.net  Tue Oct  1 15:22:58 2013
From: ALONZOTG at verizon.net (Alan Grimes)
Date: Tue, 01 Oct 2013 11:22:58 -0400
Subject: [ExI]
 =?windows-1252?q?Tap_tap=85=2EHello=3F_Is_this_thing_on=3F_?=
 =?windows-1252?q?=28Or_Zombie_Apocalypse!=29?=
In-Reply-To: <20131001113911.GM10405@leitl.org>
References: <mailman.4.1380589161.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <3BE3E642-B8AF-4182-99D4-3AADE05D500C@me.com>
 <CALAdGNSFi75=K6yPKO=czOKwGsHSGxAHJgeuxuCxf4v8jb0Q-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131001110927.GI10405@leitl.org>
 <CAL_armg0FvU=CPfiWH-7ic8eOUPNaHsVr-CgtMTO8esU=4mbAw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131001113911.GM10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <524AE8D2.4060608@verizon.net>

Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Tue, Oct 01, 2013 at 12:27:35PM +0100, BillK wrote:
>
>> Only the time of the default would be under their control. Thereafter
>> chaos ensues.
> Sure thing.
>
>> So perhaps they would like a few more years to stockpile and prepare
>> before defaulting.
> They didn't bother to prepare for it before, why should you expect they'll
> plan for a managed collapse in future? The sooner it blows, the less
> the damage, after the smoke clears. Percussive maintenance of the economy;
> it's the only thing left.

Oh they've been preparing for it!

The DHS has bought over two billion rounds of hollow point ammunition. 
(not legal for warfare use).

They've been buying APCs, mobile checkpoints, basically a whole laundry 
list of stuff you would want to put down a rebellion.

There are rumors that there are entire underground cities for the 1% and 
the culprits of all this to retreat to.

-- 
NOTICE: NEW E-MAIL ADDRESS, SEE ABOVE

Powers are not rights.



From rtomek at ceti.pl  Tue Oct  1 18:21:26 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2013 20:21:26 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] Open source programs to get more kids to code
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbK68eMZLZeRdBxVoA_7nGNmp=tDtAdYQR9OHkV3+Zj57Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armihPnKXBPm5M9U123Vp=Ru99+NX1Br9ekQOjgxzAdK-gA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNRimSMPiYCHnr2y0P-BkC2Ynhobni9azGMb3otqFZd7yA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAOJFdbK68eMZLZeRdBxVoA_7nGNmp=tDtAdYQR9OHkV3+Zj57Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1310011947320.16635@tau.ceti.pl>

On Mon, 30 Sep 2013, Mike Dougherty wrote:

> as far as the "storytelling" Alice goes, I doubt it is obvious that 
> "boys don't like Alice very much."  I think it is more likely that girls 
> prefer the storytelling, stage directing, control of the 'action' that 
> is afforded them in the storytelling Alice mod.  I wonder if this is a 
> gender bias that we're still programming onto children.

Boys don't like storytelling to Alice - and much later, they don't like 
when Alice insists to know what they are thinking about. Connection?

> Anyway, I wanted to endorse Alice for being a pretty cool project 
> overall. I went looking for other game-like means of teaching 
> programming.  One of my favorite back-in-the-day Apple //c games was 
> Omega.  Your battle winnings could be used to purchase better virtual 
> tank hardware and the clever/efficient "AI" software you wrote for it is 
> what gave you any hope of surviving battles vs other tanks.  Yes it was 
> primitive; and it was fun.

Perhaps because the tank didn't ask you strange/idiotic questions :-).

> I'm not sure if we can teach that experience as "fun" anymore.  It seems 
> like any activity that takes more than 3-4 minutes to learn and start 
> receiving positive reward feedback is probably going to be abandoned for 
> those that do.  Maybe we're not yet wireheaded, but it seems we're 
> heading towards wireheading even if it's wireless by the time we arrive.

Ouch. Only 3-4 minutes? This is so much worse than anything I could 
expect. It almost resembles a situation from Kate Wilhelm's "Where Late 
the Sweet Birds Sang" - when they discover new clones lack imagination, 
and when old ones see snow sculpture of a girl the new only see a heap of 
snow, no associations, bye-bye. I wonder if it always was like this (only 
some kids can trespass 3-4 min limit without passing out) or is it 
peculiarity of recent times?

So, it's going to be peak programmers, too? In a world where everything 
including rolls of toilet paper is to include a micro? Wow. 

I understand that LOGO [1] is very much defashioned and forgotten? And 
"program is text" has been flushed down the drain, too? I ask because one 
thing that struck me was the number of environments available in the 
article - so it is possible a kid will end up learning all eight or ten of 
them, always repeating something. Would have been nice to have just one 
language good enough to cover at least 80% of those different areas - 
especially if its name wasn't Java, Javascript or Basic.

[1] AFAICT LOGO is being constantly mistook for kids' prog lang, while 
being also a fully fledged full time lang on par with Lisps. I recall 
reading once that it's LISP without parentheses. [2]

[2] Opinions like these can be very misleading - says someone who learned 
Python after being trickled into believing "Python is just like Lisp" by 
one prominent AI hunter. Well, assembler is just like Lisp, too. But in 
case of LOGO it may be much more true than in case of Python. Heh.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From anders at aleph.se  Tue Oct  1 21:23:10 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 01 Oct 2013 22:23:10 +0100
Subject: [ExI]
 =?windows-1252?q?Tap_tap=85=2EHello=3F_Is_this_thing_on=3F_?=
 =?windows-1252?q?=28Or_Zombie_Apocalypse!=29?=
In-Reply-To: <3BE3E642-B8AF-4182-99D4-3AADE05D500C@me.com>
References: <mailman.4.1380589161.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <3BE3E642-B8AF-4182-99D4-3AADE05D500C@me.com>
Message-ID: <524B3D3E.7050606@aleph.se>

On 01/10/2013 08:39, Omar Rahman wrote:
> So, how are you all doing in the post apocalyptic libertarian paradise?

My impression is that it is just a tad more severe than when Belgium 
(the Galt's Gulch of Europe!) spent months without a government.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From spike66 at att.net  Wed Oct  2 01:06:11 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2013 18:06:11 -0700
Subject: [ExI] volunteers needed
Message-ID: <046901cebf0b$964542b0$c2cfc810$@att.net>

 

 

>>.If the government shutdown proceeds tomorrow, we need volunteers to spy
on

themselves..spike

 

>.Requisition cancelled!  The shutdown is going ahead in three minutes.  But

the NSA is immune.  We no longer need to watch ourselves.  Our government

will do it for us:  Government shutdown won't shut down NSA spying

 

 

 

It has long been noted that short snappy slogans win campaigns.  Examples
are Tippecanoe and Tyler Too, which won for William Harrison in 1840 and I
Like Ike, which won for Eisenhower and Nixon in 1952.  Note in both the
previous examples, neither slogan gave any actual logical reason to vote for
the candidates, depending on how you look at it.  The Tippecanoe thing had a
cool alliteration and the works Ike and like rhyme.

 

In light of the government shutdown that took place starting today, it
occurred to me that a nice snappy bumper-sticker slogan could be just the
thing for the next US election cycle, one which expresses the meme that this
democracy works just fine without a fully funded NSA to spy on us, one which
relies on citizen volunteers to take up the slack.  Suggested campaign
slogan:  Watch yourself, dude. 

 

spike

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From bookemdanomurderone at yahoo.com  Wed Oct  2 02:40:15 2013
From: bookemdanomurderone at yahoo.com (Bookemdano Murderone)
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2013 19:40:15 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] volunteers needed
In-Reply-To: <046901cebf0b$964542b0$c2cfc810$@att.net>
References: <046901cebf0b$964542b0$c2cfc810$@att.net>
Message-ID: <1380681615.12120.YahooMailNeo@web125405.mail.ne1.yahoo.com>

?"Suggested campaign slogan:? Watch yourself, dude." 
?
Which only means to?bubbas to plant cameras in their boudoirs. 
Best campaign slogan: 'Nixon's the One'. It was a presentiment: 
it meant he would be?the first one to resign.
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Oct  2 04:05:16 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2013 00:05:16 -0400
Subject: [ExI] another step towards uploading
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFhVMgQMbFRwhrzPfUt26_hNnfUikKHLHHNP-L=BmqKmZg@mail.gmail.com>

Coming just weeks after description of helium persufflation for
fracture-free cryonic suspension, here is this:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/09/130927123504.htm

This is enormously interesting. 10 nm resolution for MRI, if coupled
to MRS (MR spectroscopy) could lead to developing the ability to read
off synaptic strengths directly from frozen tissue. This would be a
major improvement over currently envisioned techniques, such as
antibody perfusion or other molecule-specific staining techniques,
followed by near-field microscopy. Staining is notoriously difficult
and variable and perfusion of frozen tissue is essentially impossible.

A technique capable of directly reading nanoscale molecular
distributions of multiple molecular species (a prerequisite for
individual brain physiology reconstruction) is the holy grail of brain
uploading. Near-field MRS could be it, perhaps.

Rafal


From anders at aleph.se  Wed Oct  2 09:49:29 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 02 Oct 2013 10:49:29 +0100
Subject: [ExI] another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFhVMgQMbFRwhrzPfUt26_hNnfUikKHLHHNP-L=BmqKmZg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFhVMgQMbFRwhrzPfUt26_hNnfUikKHLHHNP-L=BmqKmZg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <524BEC29.2010505@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-02 05:05, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> A technique capable of directly reading nanoscale molecular
> distributions of multiple molecular species (a prerequisite for
> individual brain physiology reconstruction) is the holy grail of brain
> uploading. Near-field MRS could be it, perhaps.
>

I wonder how much and what information is actually needed to deduce 
synapse types. Obviously, just cataloging the local chemical species 
would give a ground truth. But we also know vesicle size and electron 
density gives about a bit of information (roughly, excitatory or 
inhibitory). Voltammetry reveals levels of dopamine, serotonin and 
noradrenaline. No doubt other markers indicate other properties, likely 
in a noisy and overlapping manner. But from a machine learning 
perspective, if we had good data sets of multimodal data we could try 
training classifiers that could tease out a proper decision tree. 
Comparing with real ground truth is of course essential, so we need a 
"chemical dissection method" for synapses to use as test set. But I 
suspect that in the end we will end up with surprisingly simple 
statistical models.


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Oct  2 10:07:29 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2013 11:07:29 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Your Genome Is a Post-Apocalyptic Wasteland
Message-ID: <CAL_armhaHRUG6=1MdsYAODUOq+rwBhP2r=9i08Au_YncCNHUcA@mail.gmail.com>

October 1, 2013 ? By Michael White ?
Contrary to what you may have heard, your genome is not a highly
sophisticated, finely tuned data storage and processing device. It?s a
post-apocalyptic wasteland. Your 25,000 genes reside in a genetic
landscape littered with the rubble of ancient and ongoing battles with
hordes of viruses, clone armies of genetic parasites, and zombie genes
that should be dead but aren?t.

<http://www.psmag.com/science/genome-post-apocalyptic-wasteland-67139/>

The idea that your genome is an ecosystem populated with species that
pursue their own self-interest may make you wonder: Who am I, really?
Unlike the parasites that you pick up when you drink the water in a
place where you shouldn?t, transposable elements and endogenous
viruses aren?t really foreign invaders; they *are* your DNA, and they
have been part of our genetic identity for longer than we have existed
as a species. They are among the raw materials from which our genes
have been assembled, and a clear demonstration that our genetic core
is a product of evolution. Like our social identities, our genetic
identities are the result of competition, conflict, cooperation, and
accommodation. Learning how our genome?s ecosystem works is a key part
of our efforts to understand the relationship between our DNA and our
health.



BillK



From painlord2k at libero.it  Thu Oct  3 17:30:02 2013
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Thu, 03 Oct 2013 19:30:02 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Silk Road demise
Message-ID: <524DA99A.4000004@libero.it>

Silk Road is a template for future drugs and enhancements markets when
they will be  banned.

++

Apparently the fall of Silk Road and Dread Pirate Roberts was entirely
caused by the carelessness of DPR in concealing his identity.

Like with Chernobyl a number of mistakes were needed to cause the end
result and more were done.

By the way, alternatives exist and are already on the market.
Black Market Reloaded and Sheep Market Place are taking up the migration
of customers just now (with some problem given the numbers of new
incoming buyers). The vendors are pretty well the sames on Silk Road.

Silk Road processes 9 millions of bitcoin in sales in two years (around
1.2 billions of USD), netting around 600 K bitcoins in fees (around 80 M
USD at the current exchange). I'm sure the current competitors are
busily taking up all his users and more competitors are evaluating how
enter the market.

The Federals bought more than 100 items (drugs) on Silk Road and they
were just able to indict DPR after they tricked him to help them to sell
1 Kg of coke, caught an aide of DPR and then tricked him to pay (with a
bank account) to kill the same guy (posing to blackmail him).

In the end this is a question of survival of the fittest.
The careless, the stupid, the shortsighted are culled by the police, the
others move to occupy their place on the market. And they will be more
difficult to catch.

Anyway, the police took two years to take it down, even with so many
mistakes done. They bough 100 samples of drugs. This tell me they
invested a lot of efforts and resources to find him and locate him. How
many resources have they to devote to this? If he didn't do these
initial mistakes, how much time they would have needed to locate him?
Four years? Ten years?

They took down Napster but they didn't stopped people from sharing.
They took down innumerable drug traffickers and drug trafficking is
unaffected. The stuff is cheaper and cheaper, a sign of a efficient market.

As a commenter on Reddit put it:

"From February 6, 2011 to July 23, 2013, there were 1,229,465
transactions completed on the site.
These transactions involved 146,946 unique buyer accounts, and 3,877
unique vendor accounts.

this shit is huge"

Mirco


From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Thu Oct  3 22:08:15 2013
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Thu, 03 Oct 2013 18:08:15 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Neptune's Brood
Message-ID: <201310032235.r93MYfQn000306@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

I just finished Charlie Stross's transhumanist novel Neptune's Brood, set
millennia after the events of his Heinleinesque Saturn's Children. I expect
strange and novel from him. This fills the bill. 
I think it helps to understand
three-phase commits and the uses of public-key encryption. I do, so it's
hard to be sure how much sense it will make to someone who doesn't.

The aspect I found most surprising is how many parallels I see to Cordwainer
Smith's Norstrilia. A very different feel, and yet?

My favorite line: "Unarchive the holy malware suite and prepare it for
transmission."


-- David.




From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Oct  4 03:46:06 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2013 23:46:06 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Neptune's Brood
In-Reply-To: <201310032235.r93MYfQn000306@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201310032235.r93MYfQn000306@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFjddUxoGFOF_127RbTT=9n7nNgiXKqv1GOq7+KnCZ_kLg@mail.gmail.com>

I read it too, and I did enjoy it, although with some reservations:
Charlie seems to have developed an obsessive hostility towards
Christianity, which pervades all of his recent books, starting with
the Laundry series (very good, all of them) and stretching all the way
to the far-future world of robots in Neptune's Brood. I am as good an
atheist as any, but I have over the years lost any grudges against
Christianity that I might have harbored earlier. Charlie doesn't
revile religion in general but rather concentrates on this one faith,
and in today's world this smacks too much of kicking someone who is
lying on the ground already. I find it mildly off-putting.

Also, while I understand the need for the literary device of
implausible limitations of future progress, I dislike it. Neptune's
Brood is predicated on the existence of fundamental limits on
intelligence, which are completely implausible given our current
knowledge, yet without such limits it is difficult to tell a story of
human-like protagonists in the far future where, by any extrapolation
of current trends, non-human, and possibly superhuman agents should be
dominant.

At least Charlie explicitly states such limitations as a premise, and
kudos for that, he proves he is aware of the problem, but I don't like
it anyway: It's too much of a reverse deus ex machina, so to say, a
literary device banishing deities so as to keep the plot going.

On Thu, Oct 3, 2013 at 6:08 PM, David Lubkin <lubkin at unreasonable.com> wrote:
> I just finished Charlie Stross's transhumanist novel Neptune's Brood, set
> millennia after the events of his Heinleinesque Saturn's Children. I expect
> strange and novel from him. This fills the bill. I think it helps to
> understand
> three-phase commits and the uses of public-key encryption. I do, so it's
> hard to be sure how much sense it will make to someone who doesn't.
>
> The aspect I found most surprising is how many parallels I see to Cordwainer
> Smith's Norstrilia. A very different feel, and yet?
>
> My favorite line: "Unarchive the holy malware suite and prepare it for
> transmission."



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Oct  4 04:00:47 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2013 00:00:47 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Purified humanity Re: Your Genome Is a Post-Apocalyptic
	Wasteland
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFgHA7oOBhCumNmd=PL+-FUd4H7_qVfzrxEDbkSvmRFbNw@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 2, 2013 at 6:07 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> October 1, 2013 ? By Michael White ?
> Contrary to what you may have heard, your genome is not a highly
> sophisticated, finely tuned data storage and processing device. It?s a
> post-apocalyptic wasteland. Your 25,000 genes reside in a genetic
> landscape littered with the rubble of ancient and ongoing battles with
> hordes of viruses, clone armies of genetic parasites, and zombie genes
> that should be dead but aren?t.
>
### In the next 20 years we might have the technologies sufficient to
edit a human genome to remove all the garbage of the ages. No
endogenous viruses, a much shorter genome with enhanced copy
protection - imagine having no redundancy in genes, making most
mutations deadly - this would give a much smaller "mutational
cross-section" = many fewer parts to go wrong but if it goes wrong, it
goes all the way to necrosis, rather than becoming an undead enemy, a
neoplasm. The organism would be resilient, energetically efficient and
completely cancer-proof. And all that even before splicing in any
really new stuff.

I wonder what would be the performance of such an organism.

Rafal



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Oct  4 04:11:27 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2013 00:11:27 -0400
Subject: [ExI] another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <524BEC29.2010505@aleph.se>
References: <CAAc1gFhVMgQMbFRwhrzPfUt26_hNnfUikKHLHHNP-L=BmqKmZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <524BEC29.2010505@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFhH7RSnw4yX3LzVnH4yeXR0X6Wzm=Lng9QvjxW2weXuog@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 2, 2013 at 5:49 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> On 2013-10-02 05:05, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>>
>> A technique capable of directly reading nanoscale molecular
>> distributions of multiple molecular species (a prerequisite for
>> individual brain physiology reconstruction) is the holy grail of brain
>> uploading. Near-field MRS could be it, perhaps.
>>
>
> I wonder how much and what information is actually needed to deduce synapse
> types. Obviously, just cataloging the local chemical species would give a
> ground truth. But we also know vesicle size and electron density gives about
> a bit of information (roughly, excitatory or inhibitory). Voltammetry
> reveals levels of dopamine, serotonin and noradrenaline. No doubt other
> markers indicate other properties, likely in a noisy and overlapping manner.
> But from a machine learning perspective, if we had good data sets of
> multimodal data we could try training classifiers that could tease out a
> proper decision tree. Comparing with real ground truth is of course
> essential, so we need a "chemical dissection method" for synapses to use as
> test set. But I suspect that in the end we will end up with surprisingly
> simple statistical models.

### I think you are right about the simple statistical models
substitutable for large chunks of dendritic trees but I would expect
that the translation from a physical description of a neuron to a
simplified equivalent might be very complex. There is a fair amount of
analog computation going on in the dendritic trees, where the shape of
the tree and the precise relative location of synapses modify the
summation of inputs from synaptic strengths. After neural scan you
would have to do some very heavy brute-force computations to yield the
simplified models. All should be doable though, as long as the scan is
of sufficient quality.

Rafal


From spike66 at att.net  Fri Oct  4 03:56:22 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2013 20:56:22 -0700
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
Message-ID: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>

 

An offlist commentary by a friend really has my wheels turning, compelling
me to rephrase Dickens.

 

In all of human history, now is unique in many ways, but I thought of a
pleasant one: if one is a pauper, especially a young one, it is definitely
the best of times.  I don't know about other countries, but if one's
standards in housing are not too picky, we now have developed a society
where a pauper can really have a decent life, especially if one's favorite
thing is devouring information in all its forms, and is a light eater.  

 

Consider for instance the way it has always been.  If you have a ton of
money, you can of course get the best mates, the best home, the best food,
the best wheels etc.  We know that, and that hasn't changed a bit, ever.
But in the old days, if you had nothing, you couldn't really even get
training: you couldn't learn to read, or if you could read, you couldn't get
reading materials readily.  There were public libraries, but we all know
that the books there were generally outdated.  Certainly better than
nothing, but compare a typical public library to Stanford bookstore and you
know exactly what I mean: Stanford's store is expensive, but highly selected
with only the most wicked cool stuff in there.  Of course it costs money.

 

But now. it feels to me like we now have aaaaaalllll thiiiiis coooool stuff
available online to the pauper, the free online training tools, the really
meaty websites filled with skills that rich and poor alike need to struggle
to master.  There is still no royal road to trigonometry.  In that sense it
is the best of times for really poor people.  You can pick up internet on a
200 dollar Kindle or equivalent, and there is free wifi over most of this
town now.  It isn't the fastest and a Kindle isn't the best interface, but
for two days' minimum wage, look at all the stuff you can get!

 

This has all given me a vision of sorts, which ties in nicely with the
current US government's thrashing about, partially shut down, so they say.
The fed was hoping someone would notice.  So far we have learned we can do
just fine without their expensive help.

 

This shutdown is all about how we are going to do our healthcare.  I would
argue the proposed solution will be just as broken as the one before it, but
I did think of a way that might help.  In many countries in the world,
people go to medical school right out of high school.  I personally know two
doctors who went to medical school, one in Iran, the other in China.  Both
practiced medicine for several years there.  Neither has managed to get
licensed here.  I think we could set up a system where aspiring doctors
could do much of their qualification for medical school online, starting at
any time.  Much of medical school could be done with online training as
well.  In this way we could generate many more doctors.  Of course they
would likely not be as competent as our current crop, but they would have
far less investment in their education, so they could charge a lot less.

 

spike

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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Oct  4 14:52:50 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2013 10:52:50 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
Message-ID: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>

On Oct 4, 2013, at 12:11 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:


> > After neural scan you would have to do some very heavy brute-force
> computations to yield the simplified models. All should be doable though,
> as long as the scan is of sufficient quality.
>

Right now the most detailed scans of entire brains were not obtained by
freezing but by chemical fixation and then cutting the brain into thin
slices, some only 30 nanometers or about 100 atoms thick and photographing
the slices. I wish the good people at Alcor would say something about
chemical fixation, the same process Drexler advocated in "Engines of
Creation". I haven't heard any mention of chemopreservation from Alcor
since a short 2009 article that I didn't think was very good.

 John K Clark
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From rtomek at ceti.pl  Fri Oct  4 18:27:30 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2013 20:27:30 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1310041848240.14752@tau.ceti.pl>

On Thu, 3 Oct 2013, spike wrote:

[...]
> But now. it feels to me like we now have aaaaaalllll thiiiiis coooool stuff
> available online to the pauper, the free online training tools, the really
> meaty websites filled with skills that rich and poor alike need to struggle
> to master.  There is still no royal road to trigonometry.  In that sense it
> is the best of times for really poor people.  You can pick up internet on a
> 200 dollar Kindle or equivalent, and there is free wifi over most of this
> town now.  It isn't the fastest and a Kindle isn't the best interface, but
> for two days' minimum wage, look at all the stuff you can get!

I almost agree, but:

1. If I were a pauper, I'd rather spend 100 on decent used laptop than 50 
on Kindle. The truth is, one can live quite long while reading stuff on 
LCD (I lived quite long reading on CRT - albeit I always tried to buy from 
above the cheapest shelve) and Kindles (or ebook readers, if you please) 
lack anything valuable in this digital age other than good-for-reading 
display. I mean, no keyboard (some models sport this laugh of so called 
keyboard), no compiler, no decent editor of one's choice (say, if one 
wants Emacs? with full elisp enabled, of course), not even a SD-card (in 
case of Kindle) - so I can read until I faint but what can I _make_ , on 
my own, with this knowledge? To make, I need decent kb, some cpu and 
enough mem to compile. Longterm, I'd say this is worth much more than cool 
eink display - and I say this while having desktop, laptop and ereader. 
Last but not least, ereader is to be treated as monolitic piece of 
hardware - if something buckles up, one can trash it. Some repairs are 
possible, but it's much easier to try with a laptop and even easier with 
desktop, where rolling upgrade is one of the coolest property I can think 
of - it's possible to start with really shitty hw and go up in small 
steps.

2. While your depiction of prospects is true, and it is so in increasing 
number of places, the other side of it is that "your pauper" wasn't born a 
pauper or his parents were not paupers, or their parents etc etc, so he 
was taught the value of learning oneself (however, what actually is the 
value of this? perhaps it depends on neighbourhood). The real pauper is 
born into real paupers, I'm afraid, and then he goes to pauper school and 
chances are, there he is taught to, say, trade drugs (or trade  
himself/herself) and to "get reach or day traying". One can see some of 
paupers' attitude when analysing career of some sportsmen, who at their 
peak earn millions and present cars to the strangers, then quickly go back 
to the place of origin when their money dries away (is being given away, 
is being stolen by their smart advisors and so on).

However, I don't think I ever was a pauper (especially that I was able to 
attend to public schools in times when one could expect from them, just as 
schools were to expect from me - not sure how much this is the case 
today). So maybe I'm wrong about something. Particularly when it comes to 
describing attitudes. Obviously, some paupers elevate themselves quite 
high and not all are loosing their earnings in stupid ways.

Overally, I think I could trade even the network in exchange for ability 
to read from works freely available in current pub repositories (too many 
to list them here, Project Gutenberg and its kins). I.e., petabyte local 
read-only storage may be preferred to twistlers and falsebooks :-). Many 
of them books are somewhat dated, but anatomy atlas from 1900 or Latin 
book from 1911 are really good enough for me. But ok, network plus limited 
local storage for a number of books I find valuable is good, too. The 
first option would be better for paupers with bad internet access.

> This has all given me a vision of sorts, which ties in nicely with the
> current US government's thrashing about, partially shut down, so they say.
> The fed was hoping someone would notice.  So far we have learned we can do
> just fine without their expensive help.

I have vague suspicion that central _working_ government has quite few 
good uses, even if I decline to elaborate on those. I think it is ok to 
trash a gov only if you are goodenooph to take on local robbers, druggers 
and human traffickers by yourself (an army of one, etc). Otherwise, I 
advice to pay taxes and demand results (or the other way). I guess Wild 
West wasn't really very good place to live from today's perspective 
(hint: if the good always won, where the contemporary bads came from?).

I somehow fail to envision anarchic paradise when everybody cooperates and 
no gov is necessary. Too angelic for us humans. I am much more prone to 
see how long term no-gov situation turns, in case of country like US, into 
war of everybody with everybody else. By long term here I mean longer than 
a week :-).

[...]
> licensed here.  I think we could set up a system where aspiring doctors
> could do much of their qualification for medical school online, starting at
> any time.  Much of medical school could be done with online training as
> well.  In this way we could generate many more doctors.  Of course they
> would likely not be as competent as our current crop, but they would have
> far less investment in their education, so they could charge a lot less.

But, I guess you can have this already? From CA to Mexico, go to hospital 
there? Tijuana, Chihuahua, Ciudad Juarez? Pay less, have a doc possibly as 
competent as your average?

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Oct  5 01:23:21 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2013 18:23:21 -0700
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1310041848240.14752@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1310041848240.14752@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTjt6=CQ-1hK49s3k0UhKaoKNoaJv_vVW14gRLfH8-c1A@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 4, 2013 at 11:27 AM, Tomasz Rola <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:

> I can read until I faint but what can I _make_ , on
> my own, with this knowledge? To make, I need decent kb, some cpu and
> enough mem to compile.


Careful with the programmer's hubris.  Not all - not even most - things
worth making, can be done entirely in software yet.

(That said, a general purpose laptop is more likely than a Kindle to be
able to be configured to, say, control a 3D printer or a drone.  But that's
not directly a result of memory, CPU, et cetera.)


> The real pauper is
> born into real paupers, I'm afraid, and then he goes to pauper school and
> chances are, there he is taught to, say, trade drugs (or trade
> himself/herself) and to "get reach or day traying".


Quite.  Opportunity is wonderful for those who realize there is opportunity
and they should reach for it.  That is not, and has never been so far as I
know, the attitude of the majority of the human race.  Hopefully that may
change in the future, as many more actually do have opportunity (if they'll
take it), but that is far from certain.
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Sat Oct  5 23:07:27 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2013 19:07:27 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Friday, October 4, 2013, John Clark wrote:
>
>
> Right now the most detailed scans of entire brains were not obtained by
> freezing but by chemical fixation and then cutting the brain into thin
> slices, some only 30 nanometers or about 100 atoms thick and photographing
> the slices. I wish the good people at Alcor would say something about
> chemical fixation, the same process Drexler advocated in "Engines of
> Creation". I haven't heard any mention of chemopreservation from Alcor
> since a short 2009 article that I didn't think was very good.
>

### Max wrote about the choices between vitrification vs. fixation recently
(or was it somebody else at Alcor?). The problem is that suspension usually
takes place under non-optimal conditions - instead of live perfusion as in
the case of animals used for the scans you mentioned, the cryonauts are
treated typically after many hours of warm ischemia and this means the
perfusion can be rather poor. Freezing here at least stops further damage.
Keeping a poorly perfused brain at room temp makes it turn into a mush.

This said, one of my greatest worries regarding suspension is
organizational failure at Alcor - could happen during civil war, major
economic downturn or even due to mismanagement (not to say that the current
team is likely to fail but rather, you can never trust the younger
generations to stay faithful to the ideas of their predecessors). If I
could have elective live perfusion while still fully functional, followed
by polymer embedding (this might require some technology development ) and
room temperature storage, I might prefer it over cryoprotectant and helium
persufflation. I'm assuming that nanoscale MRI would still work in polymer
embedded tissue, so there would be no need for heavy metal staining.

I do think that both approaches, vitrification and fixation, should
be further researched, as much as our limited resources allow but for
now vitrification is still the better way to go.

Rafal



-- 
Rafal Smigrodzki, MD-PhD
Senior Scientist,
Gencia Corporation
706 B Forest St.

Charlottesville, VA 22903

tel: (434) 295-4800

fax: (434) 295-4951



This electronic message transmission contains information from the
biotechnology firm of Gencia Corporation which may be confidential or
privileged. The information is intended to be for the use of the individual
or entity named above. If you are not the intended recipient, be aware that
any disclosure, copying, distribution or use of the contents of this
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Oct  6 15:33:12 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 6 Oct 2013 11:33:12 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0yhTD4HE8aXkDOYtkwr01-W0RLdKXB-BXON2Wwks_9SA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Oct 5, 2013 at 7:07 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com
> wrote:

> The problem is that suspension usually takes place under non-optimal
> conditions - instead of live perfusion as in the case of animals used for
> the scans you mentioned, the cryonauts are treated typically after many
> hours of warm ischemia and this means the perfusion can be rather poor.
> Freezing here at least stops further damage. Keeping a poorly perfused
> brain at room temp makes it turn into a mush.
>

Apparently a way to overcome this problem was found just a few months ago:

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/human-brain-cut-7-400-slices-then-reconstructed-digitally-3-6C10413680

Using an automated process a woman's brain was cut into 7400 slices 20
micrometers thick, a human hair is about 50 micrometers thick. Then they
mounted the slices on glass slides, stained them and took very high
resolution photographs that almost reached the cellular level. This is 50
times better resolution in all 3 directions than ever made of a human brain
before. I can't help but wonder if more information has been preserved
about this women, that is to say she has a better chance of resurrection,
than any current patient of Alcor. I'm not saying she does but I wonder.

> Max wrote about the choices between vitrification vs. fixation recently
> (or was it somebody else at Alcor?).
>

As far as I know the only thing Alcor has said about chemopreservation is
here:

 http://www.alcor.org/Library/html/chemopreservation.html

About a year ago I made some comments about some of its assertions, but I
received no response from Alcor concerning them:

 > For example, the expensive and extremely toxic chemical osmium tetroxide
> is routinely used for stabilization of lipids in preparation for electron
> microscopy.
>

If something as dangerous to handle and expensive as osmium tetroxide were
needed then that could be a show stopper for chemical fixation being a
alternative to cryonics, but I don't see why it would be needed. Osmium
tetroxide is primarily not a stabilizer but a stain, it works well as a
contrast agent in electron microscopes because heavy metals like Osmium
scatter lots of electrons. However how information is extracted from my 3
pounds of frozen or chemically fixed brain is not my problem it is the
problem of beings who live in a age of advanced Nanotechnology. My only
concern is that the information remains intact inside that 3 pounds of grey
goo, I don't know exactly how it will be extracted but I doubt it will be
by electron microscopes.

 > Unlike the cryobiologist, the chemical fixation researcher cannot
> reverse fixation and test for viability.
>

I don't understand what is meant by that or what edge Cryonics has over
fixation because of it. Viability just means it works, and so far neither
Cryonics nor fixation has brought anybody back and I don't think anybody
will until advanced nanotechnology is developed. It almost sounds like
there is supposed to be some advantage in using the same atoms in the
reawakened being as in the old one, but I can't imagine what that advantage
could be.

> The cryobiologist does not have to confine himself to this fate because
> he can attempt to measure viability in the brain
>

Obviously during revival at every step you'd like to know if you're doing
it right and are on the right track, but again I don't see why cryonics
would be better at this than fixation.

> or even the whole organism.
>

Preserving any part of the body with either method except for the brain
seems completely pointless to me.

> Let us assume, for the sake of the argument, that the chemopreservation
> advocate has identified a number of fixatives (and other treatments) that
> are sufficient for complete ultrastructural preservation of the brain. The
> next question is going to be: how stable will chemopreservation be over
> time? This is a very important point for the technical feasibility of
> chemopreservation.
>

Yes that is a important point. With Cryonics, unless we're talking about
millions of years and as long as things remain cold (but will it?),  pretty
much all the damage that is going to be done has been done by the time the
brain reaches liquid nitrogen temperatures. And I'm not worried about
damage caused during thawing because that won't be done with existing
technology, assuming it's even thawed at all and it probably won't be; the
information will probably be read out by disassembling the brain from the
outside in while it remains in solid form.

I don't know if chemical fixation would remain as stable over the centuries
as freezing, my hunch is that cryonics has a small edge over fixation in
this regard but I could be dead wrong, maybe it's a big edge. And I don't
want to be dead.

 > It is not only necessary to demonstrate that all chemicals can be
> introduced by perfusion fixation without perfusion artifacts
>

Both methods are imperfect so it is only necessary to demonstrate that
fixation produces fewer artifacts than Cryonics or that the artifacts
produced are easier to identify as artifacts to make it the superior
technology.

> In my opinion, the prospect of autolysis is much worse because when
> biomolecules break up into their constitutive parts, and go into solution,
>

True, but if fixation is done correctly there won't be any fluid for things
to move in.

> there is a risk that essential parts of the brain will not be fixed, as a
> result of inadequacies of the protocol, perfusion artifacts, or long term
> degradation. It is at this point where classic cryopreservation  really
> shines. Even tissue that is not protected from ice formation as a
> consequence of perfusion impairment will still be "fixed" through low
> temperatures.[...]
>

That is another very good point. If the cryo-preservative doesn't reach a
certain part of the brain things might not be hopeless because at least it
still gets frozen so you still might be able to get information out of it
if your technology is good enough, but if the chemical fixative doesn't
reach part of the brain things are far far more serious.

But the smaller the biological sample you're trying to infuse with
cryo-preservative or chemical fixative the easier it is, so both methods
might be improved if before any chemical was infused or any freezing done a
dozen or so thin cuts were made to slice the brain into smaller pieces. The
cuts could be made very thin indeed, 30 nanometers or about 100 atoms
thick. Yes you would be destroying some tissue but if the technology is
good enough to repair all the damage caused by freezing or chemical
fixation then I don't think they'd have much trouble figuring out what is
supposed to be in that very narrow gap.

> [...] there is little hope of inferring the original structure of the
> brain.
>

Yes, the important thing is that things stay put, or at least if they must
move the flow should not be turbulent so you can figure out where the parts
were before they moved. If things are turbulent then a small change in
initial conditions will lead to a huge change in out come and you'll never
figure out where things are supposed to go. I don't see why turbulence
would occur in chemical fixation and fortunately (see below) it doesn't
look like it would happen during the freezing of a brain either (I'm not
interested in what happens during unfreezing, that's a problem for advanced
nanotechnology, I just want to be sure the information is still inside that
frozen lump of tissue). That's why I think Cryonics has a pretty good
chance of working at least from a technical viewpoint, whether the brain
will actually remain at liquid nitrogen temperatures until the age of
nanotechnology and whether anybody will think we're worth the bother of
reviving is a entirely different question.

Fluid flow stops being smoothly Laminar and starts to become chaotically
turbulent when a system has a Reynolds number between 2300 and 4000,
although you might get some non chaotic vortices if it is bigger than 30.
We can find the approximate Reynolds number by using the formula LDV/N.  L
is the characteristic size we're interested in, we're interested in cells
so L is about 10^-6 meter. D is the density of water, 10^3 kilograms/cubic
meter.  V is the velocity of the flow, during freezing it's probably less
than 10^-3 meters per second but let's be conservative, I'll give you 3
orders of magnitude and call V 1 meter per second.  N is the viscosity of
water, at room temperature N is 0.001 newton-second/meter^2, it would be
less than that when things get cold and even less when water is mixed with
glycerol as it is in cryonics but let's be conservative again and ignore
those factors. If you plug these numbers into the formula you get a
Reynolds number of about 1. 1 is a lot less than 2300 so it looks like any
mixing caused by freezing would probably be laminar not turbulent, so you
can still deduce the position where things are supposed to be.

   John K Clark



















>
> This said, one of my greatest worries regarding suspension is
> organizational failure at Alcor - could happen during civil war, major
> economic downturn or even due to mismanagement (not to say that the current
> team is likely to fail but rather, you can never trust the younger
> generations to stay faithful to the ideas of their predecessors). If I
> could have elective live perfusion while still fully functional, followed
> by polymer embedding (this might require some technology development ) and
> room temperature storage, I might prefer it over cryoprotectant and helium
> persufflation. I'm assuming that nanoscale MRI would still work in polymer
> embedded tissue, so there would be no need for heavy metal staining.
>
> I do think that both approaches, vitrification and fixation, should
> be further researched, as much as our limited resources allow but for
> now vitrification is still the better way to go.
>
> Rafal
>
>
>
> --
> Rafal Smigrodzki, MD-PhD
> Senior Scientist,
> Gencia Corporation
> 706 B Forest St.
>
> Charlottesville, VA 22903
>
> tel: (434) 295-4800
>
> fax: (434) 295-4951
>
>
>
> This electronic message transmission contains information from the
> biotechnology firm of Gencia Corporation which may be confidential or
> privileged. The information is intended to be for the use of the individual
> or entity named above. If you are not the intended recipient, be aware that
> any disclosure, copying, distribution or use of the contents of this
> information is prohibited. If you have received this electronic
> transmission in error, please notify us by telephone (434-295-4800) or by
> electronic mail (fportell at genciabiotech.com) immediately.
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From anders at aleph.se  Sun Oct  6 17:33:03 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 06 Oct 2013 18:33:03 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Purified humanity Re: Your Genome Is a Post-Apocalyptic
 Wasteland
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFgHA7oOBhCumNmd=PL+-FUd4H7_qVfzrxEDbkSvmRFbNw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFgHA7oOBhCumNmd=PL+-FUd4H7_qVfzrxEDbkSvmRFbNw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52519ECF.7090409@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-04 05:00, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>
> ## In the next 20 years we might have the technologies sufficient to
> edit a human genome to remove all the garbage of the ages. No
> endogenous viruses, a much shorter genome with enhanced copy
> protection - imagine having no redundancy in genes, making most
> mutations deadly - this would give a much smaller "mutational
> cross-section" = many fewer parts to go wrong but if it goes wrong, it
> goes all the way to necrosis, rather than becoming an undead enemy, a
> neoplasm. The organism would be resilient, energetically efficient and
> completely cancer-proof. And all that even before splicing in any
> really new stuff.
>
> I wonder what would be the performance of such an organism.
>

Us too. We have been discussing this at FHI at some length, trying to 
find good references and models. There seem to be a significant 
mutational load on most organisms, but converting the theory into 
predictions for actual mental or physical performance has so far eluded 
us. Anybody who has some good pointers into the literature is most 
welcome to share them!

Removing redundancy to make mutations directly lethal might not be 
optimal for all genes. A lot of mutations seem to just reduce 
performance, so you increase the risk of being born with reduced 
performance genes. After all, being heterozygous for sickle-cell anemia 
is not lethal, yet pretty annoying.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From anders at aleph.se  Sun Oct  6 17:25:11 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 06 Oct 2013 18:25:11 +0100
Subject: [ExI] another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFhH7RSnw4yX3LzVnH4yeXR0X6Wzm=Lng9QvjxW2weXuog@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFhVMgQMbFRwhrzPfUt26_hNnfUikKHLHHNP-L=BmqKmZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <524BEC29.2010505@aleph.se>
 <CAAc1gFhH7RSnw4yX3LzVnH4yeXR0X6Wzm=Lng9QvjxW2weXuog@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52519CF7.4000200@aleph.se>

Ah, I think you misread me (in an interesting direction). I was not 
talking about dendritic tree computation, just finding out what was in 
the different synapses. If you do not know whether they are 
glutaminergic or dopaminergic, it doesn't matter how much you try to 
brute force what the rest of the cell is doing.

I think people tend to overestimate how hard it is to run a nonlinear 
neuron model. The big problem is getting the parameters right, not the 
actual simulation - that is mostly a matter of running a lot of HH-like 
equations, and optimizing for your available computational substrates. 
Getting enough data from tissue to pin down the simulation parameters 
*and* check that it produces sensible results (especially since the data 
collection might have ruined the cell for comparision and testing), that 
is the challenge. A super-resolution scan might still be worthless if it 
doesn't tell you what you need to know.


On 2013-10-04 05:11, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> On Wed, Oct 2, 2013 at 5:49 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
>> On 2013-10-02 05:05, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>>> A technique capable of directly reading nanoscale molecular
>>> distributions of multiple molecular species (a prerequisite for
>>> individual brain physiology reconstruction) is the holy grail of brain
>>> uploading. Near-field MRS could be it, perhaps.
>>>
>> I wonder how much and what information is actually needed to deduce synapse
>> types. Obviously, just cataloging the local chemical species would give a
>> ground truth. But we also know vesicle size and electron density gives about
>> a bit of information (roughly, excitatory or inhibitory). Voltammetry
>> reveals levels of dopamine, serotonin and noradrenaline. No doubt other
>> markers indicate other properties, likely in a noisy and overlapping manner.
>> But from a machine learning perspective, if we had good data sets of
>> multimodal data we could try training classifiers that could tease out a
>> proper decision tree. Comparing with real ground truth is of course
>> essential, so we need a "chemical dissection method" for synapses to use as
>> test set. But I suspect that in the end we will end up with surprisingly
>> simple statistical models.
> ### I think you are right about the simple statistical models
> substitutable for large chunks of dendritic trees but I would expect
> that the translation from a physical description of a neuron to a
> simplified equivalent might be very complex. There is a fair amount of
> analog computation going on in the dendritic trees, where the shape of
> the tree and the precise relative location of synapses modify the
> summation of inputs from synaptic strengths. After neural scan you
> would have to do some very heavy brute-force computations to yield the
> simplified models. All should be doable though, as long as the scan is
> of sufficient quality.



-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From anders at aleph.se  Sun Oct  6 17:19:43 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 06 Oct 2013 18:19:43 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv0yhTD4HE8aXkDOYtkwr01-W0RLdKXB-BXON2Wwks_9SA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv0yhTD4HE8aXkDOYtkwr01-W0RLdKXB-BXON2Wwks_9SA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52519BAF.7020308@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-06 16:33, John Clark wrote:
>
> http://www.nbcnews.com/science/human-brain-cut-7-400-slices-then-reconstructed-digitally-3-6C10413680
>
> Using an automated process a woman's brain was cut into 7400 slices 20 
> micrometers thick, a human hair is about 50 micrometers thick. Then 
> they mounted the slices on glass slides, stained them and took very 
> high resolution photographs that almost reached the cellular level. 
> This is 50 times better resolution in all 3 directions than ever made 
> of a human brain before. I can't help but wonder if more information 
> has been preserved about this women, that is to say she has a better 
> chance of resurrection, than any current patient of Alcor. I'm not 
> saying she does but I wonder.

While a tour-de-force of what we can do today in the lab, the scanned 
images are not enough to reconstruct her network topology. First, they 
used Nissl stains, so we can mainly see cell nuclei rather than 
dendrites and synapses. Second, the scan was optical resolution: we know 
there are fine branches below optical resolution. And third, 20 microns 
is too wide to get the topology. Looking at the cube here
http://connectomethebook.com/?portfolio=atum-cortex-reconstructions
http://connectomethebook.com/?portfolio=atum-cortex-reconstructions-2
shows just how much stuff there is in a ~3x3x3 micron cube. The slices 
are seven times thicker! EM approaches are great in resolution, but 
overload our data storage methods and lack the big field optical methods 
have.

Now, we can hope the stained sections are stored safely and retain the 
information for the future methods.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From anders at aleph.se  Sun Oct  6 17:28:55 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 06 Oct 2013 18:28:55 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52519DD7.1040406@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-06 00:07, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> ### Max wrote about the choices between vitrification vs. fixation 
> recently (or was it somebody else at Alcor?). The problem is that 
> suspension usually takes place under non-optimal conditions - instead 
> of live perfusion as in the case of animals used for the scans you 
> mentioned, the cryonauts are treated typically after many hours of 
> warm ischemia and this means the perfusion can be rather poor. 
> Freezing here at least stops further damage. Keeping a poorly perfused 
> brain at room temp makes it turn into a mush. 

The problem might be that fixing brains has the same problem. In 
reality, you will need to proceed more or less like for cryosuspension: 
wait until the patient is declared dead, and then start biostasis 
protocols. In fact, I expect cryonics people to be the best kind of 
people to perform the initial stages of a fixation procedure - they know 
their way around distributing chemicals in a deanimating body. Lab 
histologists are a little bit too used to being able to force the 
deanimation themselves, and to small mammal brains :-)

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From rtomek at ceti.pl  Sun Oct  6 20:24:23 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Sun, 6 Oct 2013 22:24:23 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTjt6=CQ-1hK49s3k0UhKaoKNoaJv_vVW14gRLfH8-c1A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1310041848240.14752@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CALAdGNTjt6=CQ-1hK49s3k0UhKaoKNoaJv_vVW14gRLfH8-c1A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1310062150150.23730@tau.ceti.pl>

On Fri, 4 Oct 2013, Adrian Tymes wrote:

> On Fri, Oct 4, 2013 at 11:27 AM, Tomasz Rola <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:
> 
> > I can read until I faint but what can I _make_ , on my own, with this 
> > knowledge? To make, I need decent kb, some cpu and enough mem to 
> > compile.
> 
> 
> Careful with the programmer's hubris.  Not all - not even most - things 
> worth making, can be done entirely in software yet.

:-)

Please forgive me this programmer's hubris of mine, everybody.

But to be frank, I consider introduction of programmable computer to be on 
par with introduction of the wheel and writing. Especially when they met 
the so called Individual and started to be used by her/him for all things 
everydaily, big and small.

I admit I feel rather uncomfortable whenever I see a computing device with 
no means to make new software on it - to the point when I consider it 
broken, somewhere in the back of my head. To some limits, of course. I can 
easily live with knowledge that car's engine lacks onboard compiler and vi 
editor. But engine behaviour can be modified with proper combination of 
cable and software (if we're talking about relatively modern engine). 
Ditto for Windows desktop - it's quite easy to repair it from the damaged 
state it is being advertised and sold (well, to some extent - one cannot 
regrow a bonsai tree too high). OTOH there is growing class of devices, 
which require more work to undamage them - and I can smell there's quite a 
big group willing to make permamently damaged computers, and this makes me 
a bit angry. Because at the same time I keep reading about "PC death" and 
the like propaganda - sure it's not going to happen this year, but they 
keep saying this mantra, like it's something great.

> (That said, a general purpose laptop is more likely than a Kindle to be 
> able to be configured to, say, control a 3D printer or a drone.  But 
> that's not directly a result of memory, CPU, et cetera.)

I guess it can be successfully argued that 3d printer is best paired with 
CAD software. Including CADs already used in the industry, with their 
parts libraries and the like. This means, for about a decade (or a half), 
PC-class device. It doesn't need to have mem or cpu - I can buy those 
later :-).

> Quite.  Opportunity is wonderful for those who realize there is 
> opportunity and they should reach for it.  That is not, and has never 
> been so far as I know, the attitude of the majority of the human race.  
> Hopefully that may change in the future, as many more actually do have 
> opportunity (if they'll take it), but that is far from certain.

My take on it is that maybe not everybody should be Mozart. That would've 
been a nightmare. But I wouldn't mind a world where everybody tries, or 
rather, where everybody plays (this can be adjusted accordingly so the 
wish applies to other areas of life, too, so we don't end with billions 
of piano boxers).

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Oct  6 21:32:28 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 6 Oct 2013 15:32:28 -0600
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Oct 3, 2013 at 9:56 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
> In all of human history, now is unique in many ways, but I thought of a
> pleasant one: if one is a pauper, especially a young one, it is definitely
> the best of times.
>

There is more free or virtually free stuff available now than at any time
in human history. Certainly much of it is digital, but much of it is not.
The book "Free: How Today's Smartest Businesses Profit by Giving Something
for Nothing" by Chris Anderson shows how many physical things can be free
as well.

I have an idea for a way to give people free haircuts, and the business
would be very profitable if it caught on. It basically involves trading
your time watching advertisements for getting your hair cut. It's just one
way to show how you can make the economy go without collecting money from
the people getting the service (or good).


> I don?t know about other countries, but if one?s standards in housing are
> not too picky, we now have developed a society where a pauper can really
> have a decent life, especially if one?s favorite thing is devouring
> information in all its forms, and is a light eater.
>
But to a large extent, this society is based upon redistribution of wealth
in addition to the commoditization of everything basic to life. And any
society based on redistribution of wealth is likely to fail long term.
Unless, that is, the best people are radically better than the unenhanced.
So, for example, our society works well for cats and dogs because we simply
don't expect anything from them. If there is an underclass that has the
same comparative capabilities to dogs and cats, then maybe we can afford to
support them.

> **
>
> Consider for instance the way it has always been.  If you have a ton of
> money, you can of course get the best mates, the best home, the best food,
> the best wheels etc.  We know that, and that hasn?t changed a bit, ever.
> But in the old days, if you had nothing, you couldn?t really even get
> training: you couldn?t learn to read, or if you could read, you couldn?t
> get reading materials readily.  There were public libraries, but we all
> know that the books there were generally outdated.  Certainly better than
> nothing, but compare a typical public library to Stanford bookstore and you
> know exactly what I mean: Stanford?s store is expensive, but highly
> selected with only the most wicked cool stuff in there.  Of course it costs
> money.
>
A rising tide lifts everyone.

> ****
>
> **This has all given me a vision of sorts, which ties in nicely with the
> current US government?s thrashing about, partially shut down, so they say.
> The fed was hoping someone would notice.  So far we have learned we can do
> just fine without their expensive help.
>
If it would just STAY shut down, we could adjust. Knowing that it will open
up again soon enough, it's just going to be back to business as usual as
soon as both sides have made the political points they need to for their
constituents.

> **
>
> **This shutdown is all about how we are going to do our healthcare.  I
> would argue the proposed solution will be just as broken as the one before
> it, but I did think of a way that might help.  In many countries in the
> world, people go to medical school right out of high school.  I personally
> know two doctors who went to medical school, one in Iran, the other in
> China.  Both practiced medicine for several years there.  Neither has
> managed to get licensed here.  I think we could set up a system where
> aspiring doctors could do much of their qualification for medical school
> online, starting at any time.  Much of medical school could be done with
> online training as well.  In this way we could generate many more doctors.
> Of course they would likely not be as competent as our current crop, but
> they would have far less investment in their education, so they could
> charge a lot less.
>
The problem is that there is a government bureaucracy that is dedicated to
getting us to use ONLY the very expensive doctors, even for prescribing
antibiotics. Something your average tenth grader could do with a week's
training.

To paraphrase the Hitch: "Obama is not Great: How Government Poisons
Everything" will perhaps be my next book.

-Kelly
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From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Oct  6 22:24:10 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sun, 6 Oct 2013 15:24:10 -0700
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1310062150150.23730@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1310041848240.14752@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CALAdGNTjt6=CQ-1hK49s3k0UhKaoKNoaJv_vVW14gRLfH8-c1A@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1310062150150.23730@tau.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQZnmsk_w9rqaNHyFcSWuU7t2Nsyv6kWQmzUVMPKPE7rw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 6, 2013 at 1:24 PM, Tomasz Rola <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:

> I admit I feel rather uncomfortable whenever I see a computing device with
> no means to make new software on it - to the point when I consider it
> broken, somewhere in the back of my head.
>

I know the feeling.  Back in high school, I knew CAD was becoming the
industry standard - and yet, the drafting class I took was on-paper drawing
only, with CAD an optional add-on that they might get to at the end of the
course if there was time.  It was the only course in high school I dropped,
because I couldn't stand such obsolescence being presented to new students
of the art.
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Oct  7 04:36:04 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 00:36:04 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <52519BAF.7020308@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv0yhTD4HE8aXkDOYtkwr01-W0RLdKXB-BXON2Wwks_9SA@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519BAF.7020308@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2NBUnG3t+oCP1YTpX4zc=h8+L=+BAzf2F7BYnXpZeLnA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 6, 2013 at 1:19 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:


> > While a tour-de-force of what we can do today in the lab, the scanned
> images are not enough to reconstruct her network topology. First, they used
> Nissl stains, so we can mainly see cell nuclei rather than dendrites and
> synapses. Second, the scan was optical resolution: we know there are fine
> branches below optical resolution.
>
>
I too am certain that the photographs, as good as they are, do not contain
enough to reconstruct the individual, but I am also certain that the
photographs do not contain anywhere near as much information as the slides
themselves do. So the key question is, in a era of advanced Nanotechnology
(and I don't think anybody is going to be doing any resurrecting before
then) which contains more easily available information, one of Alcor's
frozen brains or a box containing those 7400 slides? I am a little
surprised that Alcor seems to have so little interest in knowing the answer
to this question.



> > And third, 20 microns is too wide to get the topology.
>

Because they wouldn't be photographing them I imagine that if Alcor were to
ever use this technique their slides would be much WIDER than 20 microns,
and they would have far fewer than 7400 slides. The only reason to slice
the brain at all would be to ensure even diffusion of the chemical
fixative. And I think that if we tried to "help" the Nanotechnology people
by staining the slides, we could be causing more problems than we solved;
the best strategy would be to just preserve the tissue as best we can and
not try to second guess how those who have technology vastly more powerful
than we do how they intend to get at the information.


> > Now, we can hope the stained sections are stored safely and retain the
> information for the future methods.
>

Yes

  John K Clark
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From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct  7 05:49:06 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 07:49:06 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Purified humanity Re: Your Genome Is a Post-Apocalyptic
 Wasteland
In-Reply-To: <52519ECF.7090409@aleph.se>
References: <CAAc1gFgHA7oOBhCumNmd=PL+-FUd4H7_qVfzrxEDbkSvmRFbNw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519ECF.7090409@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20131007054906.GS10405@leitl.org>

On Sun, Oct 06, 2013 at 06:33:03PM +0100, Anders Sandberg wrote:

> Us too. We have been discussing this at FHI at some length, trying
> to find good references and models. There seem to be a significant
> mutational load on most organisms, but converting the theory into

Of course that mutational load is a side effect of evolutionary
optimization. Such a brittle system must be henceforth perpetually
maintained by manual intervention, or be outcompeted by wild
type should that chain ever break.

> predictions for actual mental or physical performance has so far
> eluded us. Anybody who has some good pointers into the literature is
> most welcome to share them!
> 
> Removing redundancy to make mutations directly lethal might not be
> optimal for all genes. A lot of mutations seem to just reduce
> performance, so you increase the risk of being born with reduced
> performance genes. After all, being heterozygous for sickle-cell
> anemia is not lethal, yet pretty annoying.


From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct  7 05:43:39 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 07:43:39 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <52519DD7.1040406@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519DD7.1040406@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20131007054339.GR10405@leitl.org>

On Sun, Oct 06, 2013 at 06:28:55PM +0100, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> On 2013-10-06 00:07, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> >### Max wrote about the choices between vitrification vs. fixation
> >recently (or was it somebody else at Alcor?). The problem is that
> >suspension usually takes place under non-optimal conditions -
> >instead of live perfusion as in the case of animals used for the
> >scans you mentioned, the cryonauts are treated typically after
> >many hours of warm ischemia and this means the perfusion can be
> >rather poor. Freezing here at least stops further damage. Keeping
> >a poorly perfused brain at room temp makes it turn into a mush.
> 
> The problem might be that fixing brains has the same problem. In
> reality, you will need to proceed more or less like for
> cryosuspension: wait until the patient is declared dead, and then

There might be a loophole: euthanasia is legal in some jurisdictions.
Eliminating peri-arrest damage appears to be crucial for optimal
perfusion.

> start biostasis protocols. In fact, I expect cryonics people to be
> the best kind of people to perform the initial stages of a fixation
> procedure - they know their way around distributing chemicals in a

Everybody keeps talking about fixation/plastination with full
ultrastructure preservation at liter scale as if it was a solved problem. It isn't.

Everybody keeps talking that fixation/plastination preserves all
relevant aspects necessary for personal reconstruction. Nobody knows that.

> deanimating body. Lab histologists are a little bit too used to
> being able to force the deanimation themselves, and to small mammal
> brains :-)

Perfusion by diffusion works only on cm^3 scale systems.


From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct  7 05:38:54 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 07:38:54 +0200
Subject: [ExI] another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <52519CF7.4000200@aleph.se>
References: <CAAc1gFhVMgQMbFRwhrzPfUt26_hNnfUikKHLHHNP-L=BmqKmZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <524BEC29.2010505@aleph.se>
 <CAAc1gFhH7RSnw4yX3LzVnH4yeXR0X6Wzm=Lng9QvjxW2weXuog@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519CF7.4000200@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20131007053854.GQ10405@leitl.org>

On Sun, Oct 06, 2013 at 06:25:11PM +0100, Anders Sandberg wrote:

> I think people tend to overestimate how hard it is to run a
> nonlinear neuron model. The big problem is getting the parameters
> right, not the actual simulation - that is mostly a matter of
> running a lot of HH-like equations, and optimizing for your

You don't have to solve the equations (neural tissue certainly doesn't
do that), just build a physical system that does the equivalent.

Until you can do that, you need classical all-purpose computers,
of course, as a sacrificial bootstrap substrate.

> available computational substrates. Getting enough data from tissue
> to pin down the simulation parameters *and* check that it produces
> sensible results (especially since the data collection might have
> ruined the cell for comparision and testing), that is the challenge.
> A super-resolution scan might still be worthless if it doesn't tell
> you what you need to know.


From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Oct  7 06:16:37 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 07:16:37 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Purified humanity Re: Your Genome Is a Post-Apocalyptic
	Wasteland
In-Reply-To: <20131007054906.GS10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAAc1gFgHA7oOBhCumNmd=PL+-FUd4H7_qVfzrxEDbkSvmRFbNw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519ECF.7090409@aleph.se> <20131007054906.GS10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgLUTJ8dp6NYoT9_YofO1Qf3Z5z6cLbbMYtn0fZiWkR9Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 6:49 AM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> Of course that mutational load is a side effect of evolutionary
> optimization. Such a brittle system must be henceforth perpetually
> maintained by manual intervention, or be outcompeted by wild
> type should that chain ever break.
>

As the original article points out, optimization is the wrong word to
use as description.
Arbitrary hacks based on previous hacks is more like it.
Think of computer spaghetti code after a hundred programmers have done
urgent fixes and patches. Much of the code is bypassed by later fixes.
A lot of it no longer works as intended. A lot is no longer needed.
But the program still manages to work somehow. (Though nobody is quite
sure how!).  It's a mess.


BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct  7 08:06:29 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 10:06:29 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Purified humanity Re: Your Genome Is a Post-Apocalyptic
 Wasteland
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgLUTJ8dp6NYoT9_YofO1Qf3Z5z6cLbbMYtn0fZiWkR9Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFgHA7oOBhCumNmd=PL+-FUd4H7_qVfzrxEDbkSvmRFbNw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519ECF.7090409@aleph.se> <20131007054906.GS10405@leitl.org>
 <CAL_armgLUTJ8dp6NYoT9_YofO1Qf3Z5z6cLbbMYtn0fZiWkR9Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131007080629.GG10405@leitl.org>

On Mon, Oct 07, 2013 at 07:16:37AM +0100, BillK wrote:
> On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 6:49 AM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> > Of course that mutational load is a side effect of evolutionary
> > optimization. Such a brittle system must be henceforth perpetually
> > maintained by manual intervention, or be outcompeted by wild
> > type should that chain ever break.
> >
> 
> As the original article points out, optimization is the wrong word to

If the original article doesn't understand evolutionary optimization,
then it's a peer review failure.

> use as description.
> Arbitrary hacks based on previous hacks is more like it.

Mutation is not selection (though not entirely blind, once the
system has evolved evolvability), all the selection is done by
the fitness function -- which is not static, but certainly selective.

> Think of computer spaghetti code after a hundred programmers have done
> urgent fixes and patches. Much of the code is bypassed by later fixes.
> A lot of it no longer works as intended. A lot is no longer needed.
> But the program still manages to work somehow. (Though nobody is quite
> sure how!).  It's a mess.

Yet that mess produced you. Using pretty pedestrian means.
That's pretty damn powerful.

And strangely, the very thoughts you're forming right now are
produced by a highly similar process, by selecting competing
activity patterns in your neocortex.

Those who don't understand evolutionary optimization are doomed
to reinvent it, poorly.


From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct  7 08:44:08 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 10:44:08 +0200
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>

On Sun, Oct 06, 2013 at 03:32:28PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> There is more free or virtually free stuff available now than at any time
> in human history. Certainly much of it is digital, but much of it is not.

This is correct, but I expect we've peaked on that as well, or will
do so shortly. Maybe any resident freegans can attest whether their
pickings have declined in quality/became more slim lately.

> The book "Free: How Today's Smartest Businesses Profit by Giving Something
> for Nothing" by Chris Anderson shows how many physical things can be free
> as well.

I've been in a silver/copper mine on Saturday, which has been mined
by humanity for 6000 years, leaving 500 km of tunnels up to 1 km depth.
Mining has ceased last century, as the richer ore veins have been
exhausted. You might notice that while the volume still appears
exponential http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Copper_-_world_production_trend.svg
the price isn't showing anything too nice
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Copper_Price_History_USD.png

Silver is not any different
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Silver_-_world_production_trend.svg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Silver_price_in_USD.png

I'm skipping the same part with oil, we know that oil has not
becoming any cheaper lately.
 
> I have an idea for a way to give people free haircuts, and the business
> would be very profitable if it caught on. It basically involves trading
> your time watching advertisements for getting your hair cut. It's just one
> way to show how you can make the economy go without collecting money from
> the people getting the service (or good).

How about free energy or free food, in the long run? 
 
> A rising tide lifts everyone.

This assumes two things: that the tide is still rising, and that
some boats are not sinking. None of these assumptions hold water
on a closer look. Blub.


From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Oct  7 10:20:43 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 11:20:43 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Purified humanity Re: Your Genome Is a Post-Apocalyptic
	Wasteland
In-Reply-To: <20131007080629.GG10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAAc1gFgHA7oOBhCumNmd=PL+-FUd4H7_qVfzrxEDbkSvmRFbNw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519ECF.7090409@aleph.se> <20131007054906.GS10405@leitl.org>
 <CAL_armgLUTJ8dp6NYoT9_YofO1Qf3Z5z6cLbbMYtn0fZiWkR9Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007080629.GG10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAL_armg2EdYOYLHy7zvP=2iH7ZoDWZG_PQDTSO-Cuh+_DpbjPA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 9:06 AM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> Mutation is not selection (though not entirely blind, once the
> system has evolved evolvability), all the selection is done by
> the fitness function -- which is not static, but certainly selective.
>
> Those who don't understand evolutionary optimization are doomed
> to reinvent it, poorly.
>

You may be mixing evolutionary computing techniques to solve specific
problems with evolutionary changes.

Evolutionary computing starts afresh with every new problem. Evolution doesn't.

For example, way back, some creature in the sea found that four fins
were quite useful at that time. After that, evolution, building on the
past, was stuck with four limbs for ever after. Even when four limbs
is no longer the best solution.

BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct  7 10:34:27 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 12:34:27 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Purified humanity Re: Your Genome Is a Post-Apocalyptic
 Wasteland
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armg2EdYOYLHy7zvP=2iH7ZoDWZG_PQDTSO-Cuh+_DpbjPA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFgHA7oOBhCumNmd=PL+-FUd4H7_qVfzrxEDbkSvmRFbNw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519ECF.7090409@aleph.se> <20131007054906.GS10405@leitl.org>
 <CAL_armgLUTJ8dp6NYoT9_YofO1Qf3Z5z6cLbbMYtn0fZiWkR9Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007080629.GG10405@leitl.org>
 <CAL_armg2EdYOYLHy7zvP=2iH7ZoDWZG_PQDTSO-Cuh+_DpbjPA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131007103427.GS10405@leitl.org>

On Mon, Oct 07, 2013 at 11:20:43AM +0100, BillK wrote:

> You may be mixing evolutionary computing techniques to solve specific
> problems with evolutionary changes.

When arguing your case, please don't invent facts. They hate that.
 
> Evolutionary computing starts afresh with every new problem. Evolution doesn't.

It depends on what you prime your initial population with. 
Starting from urslime all the time is expensive. Notice that
none of current methods are anywhere criticality, aka evolving
evolvability. This is computationally expensive, and likely not
easy to replicate in a different context. So this means mature
methods will have initial pool conservation. 
 
> For example, way back, some creature in the sea found that four fins
> were quite useful at that time. After that, evolution, building on the
> past, was stuck with four limbs for ever after. Even when four limbs

Hexapodia is the key insight.

> is no longer the best solution.

Best according to who?


From anders at aleph.se  Mon Oct  7 11:35:35 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 07 Oct 2013 12:35:35 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Purified humanity Re: Your Genome Is a Post-Apocalyptic
 Wasteland
In-Reply-To: <20131007103427.GS10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAAc1gFgHA7oOBhCumNmd=PL+-FUd4H7_qVfzrxEDbkSvmRFbNw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519ECF.7090409@aleph.se> <20131007054906.GS10405@leitl.org>
 <CAL_armgLUTJ8dp6NYoT9_YofO1Qf3Z5z6cLbbMYtn0fZiWkR9Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007080629.GG10405@leitl.org>
 <CAL_armg2EdYOYLHy7zvP=2iH7ZoDWZG_PQDTSO-Cuh+_DpbjPA@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007103427.GS10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <52529C87.5010102@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-07 11:34, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Mon, Oct 07, 2013 at 11:20:43AM +0100, BillK wrote:
>
>> You may be mixing evolutionary computing techniques to solve specific
>> problems with evolutionary changes.
> When arguing your case, please don't invent facts. They hate that.
However, this morning I think the facts are confused about who is 
arguing what. I have a suspicion that BillK was talking about doing 
artificial selection on real genomes using selection methods generated 
by various methods, including evolutionary computing.

>> Evolutionary computing starts afresh with every new problem. Evolution doesn't.
> It depends on what you prime your initial population with.
> Starting from urslime all the time is expensive. Notice that
> none of current methods are anywhere criticality, aka evolving
> evolvability. This is computationally expensive, and likely not
> easy to replicate in a different context. So this means mature
> methods will have initial pool conservation.

I think this is an important consideration. Far too much evolutionary 
algorithms start with ur-slime because it is far cooler and more 
open-ended than playing Author and dropping in some already-designed 
scheme. Then again, most useful applications of EC tend to be finding 
weird-looking solutions in small problem spaces rather than open-ended 
invention. Small 'c' creativity, rather than the capital 'C' Creativity 
that answers a different question than you asked.

>> For example, way back, some creature in the sea found that four fins
>> were quite useful at that time. After that, evolution, building on the
>> past, was stuck with four limbs for ever after. Even when four limbs
> Hexapodia is the key insight.

I haven't had the chance to see the video. Bandwidth here in the UK is 
so limited.


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct  7 12:55:25 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 14:55:25 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [drone-list] Boston Dynamics Wildcat
Message-ID: <20131007125525.GD10405@leitl.org>

----- Forwarded message from Gregory Foster <gfoster at entersection.org> -----

Date: Sat, 05 Oct 2013 04:06:12 -0500
From: Gregory Foster <gfoster at entersection.org>
To: drone-list <drone-list at lists.stanford.edu>
Subject: [drone-list] Boston Dynamics Wildcat
Message-ID: <524FD684.5060800 at entersection.org>
User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10.7; rv:17.0) Gecko/20130801 Thunderbird/17.0.8
Reply-To: drone-list <drone-list at lists.stanford.edu>

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA512

"Introducing Wildcat" (Oct 3) by @BostonDynamics;
16 MPH 4-legged #robotics;
2.2M views in 2 days:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wE3fmFTtP9g
#drones #UGV

"WildCat is a four-legged robot being developed to run fast on all
types of terrain. So far WildCat has run at about 16 mph on flat
terrain using bounding and galloping gaits. The video shows WildCat's
best performance so far. WildCat is being developed by Boston Dynamics
with funding from DARPA's [Maximum Mobility and Manipulation, M3]
program."

U.S. Department of Defense (Sep 18) - Contract No. 668-13:
http://www.defense.gov/contracts/contract.aspx?contractid=5136

"Boston Dynamics Inc., Waltham, Mass., has been awarded a maximum
$9,983,844 modification (P00018) to a cost-plus-fixed-fee contract
(HR0011-10-C-0025) for the Legged Squad Support System (LS3) program.
LS3 seeks to demonstrate that a legged robot can unburden dismounted
squad members by carrying their gear, autonomously following them
through rugged terrain, and interpreting verbal and visual commands.
Within the general scope of work of Phase 2, the modification adds
additional tasks to the contract for the development of an enhanced
version of the LS3 system with increased reliability and usability,
enhanced survivability against small arms fire and a quiet power
supply to support stealthy tactical operations. Work will be performed
in Waltham, Mass. The estimated completion date is March 31, 2015.
Fiscal 2013 research and development funds are being obligated at time
of award. The contracting activity is the Defense Advanced Research
Projects Agency, Arlington, Va."

via

IEEE Spectrum (Sep 23) - "Boston Dynamics Gets $10 Million from DARPA
for New Stealthy, Bulletproof LS3" by @BotJunkie:
http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/military-robots/boston-dynamics-gets-10-million-from-darpa-for-new-stealthy-bulletproof-ls3

gf

- -- 
Gregory Foster || gfoster at entersection.org
@gregoryfoster <> http://entersection.com/
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--
Want to unsubscribe? Want to receive a weekly digest instead of daily emails? Change your preferences:  https://mailman.stanford.edu/mailman/listinfo/drone-list  or email companys at stanford.edu

----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://ativel.com http://postbiota.org
AC894EC5: 38A5 5F46 A4FF 59B8 336B  47EE F46E 3489 AC89 4EC5
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From bbenzai at yahoo.com  Mon Oct  7 13:05:47 2013
From: bbenzai at yahoo.com (Ben Zaiboc)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 06:05:47 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Purified humanity
In-Reply-To: <mailman.30.1381142091.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.30.1381142091.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <1381151147.6846.YahooMailNeo@web165005.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>

BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 6:49 AM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
>> Of course that mutational load is a side effect of evolutionary
>> optimization. Such a brittle system must be henceforth perpetually
>> maintained by manual intervention, or be outcompeted by wild
>> type should that chain ever break.
>>
>
> As the original article points out, optimization is the wrong word to
> use as description.
> Arbitrary hacks based on previous hacks is more like it.
> Think of computer spaghetti code after a hundred programmers have done
> urgent fixes and patches. Much of the code is bypassed by later fixes.
> A lot of it no longer works as intended. A lot is no longer needed.
> But the program still manages to work somehow. (Though nobody is quite
> sure how!).? It's a mess.


It certainly looks like a hell of a mess, and it's easy to see how inevitable it is that we get ridiculous results like our inside-out eyes, and crappy spines, and all sorts of other just-good-enough-to-sort-of-work structures and mechanisms that any self-respecting engineer would commit hara-kiri over if they'd had any hand in them.

It's very tempting to conclude that we need to re-design the whole mess in order to gain any sort of control over it (so that we can improve our lives, extend our capabilities, lifespans, etc.).? To optimise it.

I think that, in a sense, you're both right, and a highly-optimised biology, while working much better, would also be very brittle, and lack the flexibility of naturally-evolved systems.? Maybe what we need to do is build efficient systems, then make them less-efficient again by building in lots of redundancy, back-up mechanisms and ways of doing things differently (see what I did there?), but in a way that gives us much better control over the whole thing.? This probably involves understanding biology really, really well.? Probably so well that by the time we do, we won't need it anymore.

Anyway, I do think that spaghetti evolution sucks, and there must be a better way, that can get us the benefits of comprehenisble, controllable systems /and/ resiliency.

Actually, that gives me an idea.? Need to think about it for a bit..



From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct  7 14:36:44 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 16:36:44 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Purified humanity
In-Reply-To: <1381151147.6846.YahooMailNeo@web165005.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
References: <mailman.30.1381142091.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <1381151147.6846.YahooMailNeo@web165005.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <20131007143644.GF10405@leitl.org>

On Mon, Oct 07, 2013 at 06:05:47AM -0700, Ben Zaiboc wrote:

> It certainly looks like a hell of a mess, and it's easy to see how inevitable it is that we get ridiculous results like our inside-out eyes, and crappy spines, and all sorts of other just-good-enough-to-sort-of-work structures and mechanisms that any self-respecting engineer would commit hara-kiri over if they'd had any hand in them.

Yeah, due to the need for systems to be embodied at each step
we get atrocities like http://scienceblogs.com/grrlscientist/2010/06/22/the-laryngeal-nerve-of-the-gir/
 
> It's very tempting to conclude that we need to re-design the whole mess in order to gain any sort of control over it (so that we can improve our lives, extend our capabilities, lifespans, etc.).? To optimise it.

A major improvement would be ability to hald and copy state to new substrate,
or even incremental remote replication of evolving state. This makes you
substrate-indepedant. It's a big step, but given that we can halt state
now (cryopreservation or fixation/plastination) it's one that is available
to us today. 
 
> I think that, in a sense, you're both right, and a highly-optimised biology, while working much better, would also be very brittle, and lack the flexibility of naturally-evolved systems.? Maybe what we need to do is build efficient systems, then make them less-efficient again by building in lots of redundancy, back-up mechanisms and ways of doing things differently (see what I did there?), but in a way that gives us much better control over the whole thing.? This probably involves understanding biology really, really well.? Probably so well that by the time we do, we won't need it anymore.

I think the whole buck stops about a complex system trying to understand
its own operation. You can't destill it into something comprehensible,
yet still meaningful. Even if you can write down all the equations
governing your neural tissue, this still doesn't tell you a damn thing
why you crave grilled calamari today.
 
> Anyway, I do think that spaghetti evolution sucks, and there must be a better way, that can get us the benefits of comprehenisble, controllable systems /and/ resiliency.

If you ever find out an alternative, do drop us a note.
 
> Actually, that gives me an idea.? Need to think about it for a bit..

The problem with evolutionary systems is that seed is compact, and
morphogenesis is a complex, trapdoor system. So there is no simple
way to link bit mutations in the seed to the expressed adult system.
It's pretty much like trying to invert a cryptohash.
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Oct  7 14:45:37 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 10:45:37 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <20131007054339.GR10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519DD7.1040406@aleph.se> <20131007054339.GR10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3JNHooCWT4+Hw+CQoRC_h6ZFUg1_vWF-Z3=t4kXca1Eg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 1:43 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> Everybody keeps talking that fixation/plastination preserves all relevant
> aspects necessary for personal reconstruction. Nobody knows that.
>

Nobody knows if freezing preserves all relevant aspects necessary for
personal reconstruction either, so a judgement call must be made about
which is the better technology and that's why I think it might be wise if
Alcor at least thought about it. And If freezing is better I don't
understand why neuroscientists use chemical fixation not freezing when they
want to get the most detailed map of a brain that they can.

> Perfusion by diffusion works only on cm^3 scale systems.
>

OK, but how is that a problem? Just cut the big brain up into slices one
centimeter thick or less; the gap between the slices could be made very
thin indeed, on the order of 30 nanometers. Perhaps I'm wrong but it seems
to me that if the nanotechnology people can't extrapolate and deduce what
must have been inside those very small missing gaps then they're not ready
to resurrect anyone preserved by any method.

  John K Clark
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Oct  7 15:28:38 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 11:28:38 -0400
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3tq+1mZe_hYCrys+xn3L3cjig1LjyGa=NEraH7DV4XKw@mail.gmail.com>

Eugen Leitl, aka Dr. Doom, showed us a graph purporting to show that
because of worldwide shortages copper prices are going through the roof:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Copper_Price_History_USD.png

and it is a ugly graph no doubt about it, but if you look at a more recent
copper price graph that shows the last 5 years in greater resolution things
look much more cheerful:

http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/copper/5-year/

> Silver is not any different
>

Today silver costs $22.41 an ounce, 33 years ago in 1980 silver cost $49.45
an ounce, adjusted for inflation that would be about $138 per ounce.  And I
still haven't heard from Eugen if he's accepted my bet about a worldwide
uranium shortage by 2020.

 John K Clark
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From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct  7 15:45:29 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 17:45:29 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Human Brain Project kicks off today
Message-ID: <20131007154529.GL10405@leitl.org>


http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2013/10/07/how-to-build-human-brain-with-computer/

How to build a human brain (with a computer 1,000x faster than today?s)

By John Brandon

Published October 07, 2013 FoxNews.com

FLICKR/ILLUMINAUT

What if you could build a computer that works just like the human brain?

Scientists have started to imagine the possibilities: We could invent new
forms of industrial machinery, create fully autonomous thinking cars, devise
new kinds of home appliances. A new project in Europe hopes to create a
computer brain just that powerful in the next ten years -- and it?s
incredibly well-funded.

There?s just one catch: computers that fast simply haven?t been invented yet.

The Human Brain Project kicks off Oct. 7 at a conference in Switzerland. Over
the next 10 years, about 80 science institutions and at least 20 government
entities in Europe will figure out how to make that computer brain. The
project will cost about $1.6B in U.S. dollars.

The research hinges on creating a super-powerful computer that?s 1,000 times
faster than those in use today. If you?re keeping track, that?s an ?exascale?
supercomputer, one fast enough to model a nuclear explosion or the complex,
planetwide forces that shape the climate. Just a few years ago, scientists
started using ?petascale? supercomputers like Blue Waters at the National
Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) in Illinois that went online
last year.

'The more we know about our brains, the more we can utilize our brains to its
full potential.'

- Dr. Gayani DeSilva, a psychiatrist with a private practice in Orange,
Calif.

?Well-known manufacturers of supercomputers like IBM, Cray, Intel, and Bull,
are committed to building the first exascale machines by approximately 2020.
So we are confident we will have the machines we need,? Henry Markram, the
director of the Human Brain Project at ?cole Polytechnique F?d?rale de
Lausanne in Switzerland, told FoxNews.com. Markram also directs the Blue
Brain project started in 2005 that hopes to reverse-engineering the human
brain by rebuilding the molecules.

For scientists, these sorts of projects are all about understanding
ourselves. The brain is the least understood organ in the human body. We
don?t really know how the brain controls our thoughts, our bodily functions,
or our behavior. And, Markham says the lack of processing power in modern
computer is the least of our worries.

He says a computer brain will consume gigawatts of power, require new forms
of memory, and force scientists to look at cutting edge storage techniques.
But the immense technical hurdles will be worth the effort. The first phases
will help us understand how the brain functions. In later phases, we?ll find
out how we learn, how we see and hear, and why the brain sometimes doesn?t
process information correctly.

Dr. Gayani DeSilva, a psychiatrist with a private practice in Orange, Calif.,
told FoxNews.com a human brain model could have ?unimaginable? implications
for medicine, helping us learn how we adapt, heal, and develop. ?The more we
know about our brains, the more we can utilize our brains to its full
potential, intervene when issues arise, replicate in artificial creations the
power of the brain?s ability to integrate a vast amount of information that
then causes other systems to perform specific actions,? she says.

?The human brain is immensely complex, and a model reduces this complexity
into a controlled system. In a model, scientists can test hypotheses as to
how the human brain works, and what occurs in disease in order to understand
how to treat neurological conditions. It's analogous to astronauts training
in a flight simulator prior to a shuttle launch,? added Amina Ann Qutub, a
bioengineer at Rice University.

Fortunately, scientists won?t have to wait 10 years for the results. Markram
says there will be initial models they can use for medical research with a
year. In three years, they will have models that could help us build new
kinds of computer chips. (That?s right: the brain project itself will help
them build the computer brain.)

As with any cutting edge science, we don?t know yet what we don?t know. Qutub
says this is all unmapped territory. ?The number of total cells including the
neurons, vascular cells, and glia in a human brain is more than the number of
stars in the Milky Way,? she said. 

That?s enough to give scientists quite the headache.

Editors' Note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly listed the cost
of the project. The correct cost is shown above.


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Mon Oct  7 15:58:01 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 09:58:01 -0600
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZ+SauZe2bh5zOL7F07K6Lw13f8mhd=NvbuzEytFWSfoA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 2:44 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Sun, Oct 06, 2013 at 03:32:28PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
> > There is more free or virtually free stuff available now than at any time
> > in human history. Certainly much of it is digital, but much of it is not.
>
> This is correct, but I expect we've peaked on that as well, or will
> do so shortly. Maybe any resident freegans can attest whether their
> pickings have declined in quality/became more slim lately.
>

So now you're jumping from peak oil to peak creativity? Damn, who peed in
your breakfast Eugen? You yourself just posted an awesome robot video. Are
we peaking in robot performance as well. Perhaps it's just that all of
humanity has peaked at everything. But that can't possibly be correct,
because I don't think we've reached "peak Eugen curmudgeonism" yet. ;-)


> > The book "Free: How Today's Smartest Businesses Profit by Giving
> Something
> > for Nothing" by Chris Anderson shows how many physical things can be free
> > as well.
>
> I've been in a silver/copper mine on Saturday, which has been mined
> by humanity for 6000 years, leaving 500 km of tunnels up to 1 km depth.
> Mining has ceased last century, as the richer ore veins have been
> exhausted. You might notice that while the volume still appears
> exponential
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Copper_-_world_production_trend.svg
> the price isn't showing anything too nice
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Copper_Price_History_USD.png


I'm afraid copper is going to get slightly worse before it gets better, but
I suspect it will be a fairly temporary issue. This is due to the fact that
the Kennecott copper mine here in Salt Lake suffered a major land slide in
the last year, and it's going to take a while for it to get back on its
feet. The copper, however, is still there, and likely is still profitable
to go after.


> Silver is not any different
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Silver_-_world_production_trend.svg
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Silver_price_in_USD.png
>
>
Looking at those graphs, I don't think they clearly make your point. Silver
production has gone up considerably. Demand has also risen, therefore the
price has remained more or less flat. There is no hockey stick there.


> I'm skipping the same part with oil, we know that oil has not
> becoming any cheaper lately.
>

Much more demand for oil than for silver.


> > I have an idea for a way to give people free haircuts, and the business
> > would be very profitable if it caught on. It basically involves trading
> > your time watching advertisements for getting your hair cut. It's just
> one
> > way to show how you can make the economy go without collecting money from
> > the people getting the service (or good).
>
> How about free energy or free food, in the long run?
>

I didn't say everything was free. However, if we are able to get orbiting
solar jumpstarted, it will get closer to free than it ever has been.

As for free food, food is primarily a function of energy. Currently, all
food is produced using (directly or indirectly) terrestrial solar energy.
Thus, if we can get off world energy, we can produce food in amounts
greater than any farmer now can comprehend. If you can grow meat in a tube
rather than on hoofs, it should be more efficient. I believe technology can
fix both food and energy problems if there is sufficient interest. Since
everyone is interested in food, I can't imagine us not fixing the problems,
unless some form of world wide socialism stops it.


> > A rising tide lifts everyone.
>
> This assumes two things: that the tide is still rising, and that
> some boats are not sinking. None of these assumptions hold water
> on a closer look. Blub.


I believe that the tide is rising. Yes, there is more concentration of
wealth, but overall wealth is still rising. The technological tide is
clearly still rising. Once again, are you predicting peak human creativity
Eugen? I think you won't find any allies on that front here.

-Kelly
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From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Oct  7 16:12:33 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 09:12:33 -0700
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ7XebBDBersUBS6kjeY4Tq0deHUpKAk6CRA4-CjSiaZg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 1:44 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Sun, Oct 06, 2013 at 03:32:28PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> > There is more free or virtually free stuff available now than at any time
> > in human history. Certainly much of it is digital, but much of it is not.
>
> This is correct, but I expect we've peaked on that as well, or will
> do so shortly. Maybe any resident freegans can attest whether their
> pickings have declined in quality/became more slim lately.
>

Among the free services I get - nope.  I see no data, either statistical or
anecdotal from my own experience, that suggests we are anywhere near a peak
on this.

You are right to point out that free services are not free products,
though.  Someone always pays for the products eventually - even if that
price often (though not always, especially for raw ingredients such as oil)
gets lower over time, as more efficient ways to make and/or use the
products are discovered.  (For instance, if oil gets 1.2 times as expensive
but cars get twice the MPG, then it net costs less to drive a certain
distance.)


> Mining has ceased last century, as the richer ore veins have been
> exhausted.


"Ceased" is a strong word.  It doesn't mean "in decline", it means
"completely stopped".  If mining ceased no later than 2000 (depending on
where you put the century mark), then what's with all the active,
productive mines today in 2013?

And, of course, there's the potential for asteroid mining.  It hasn't
started yet, and there's quite a bit to do, but the amount of energy needed
to get it seriously productive seems to be within current reserves - so
long as that effort is started soon enough, of course.
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From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct  7 16:45:44 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 18:45:44 +0200
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQ7XebBDBersUBS6kjeY4Tq0deHUpKAk6CRA4-CjSiaZg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQ7XebBDBersUBS6kjeY4Tq0deHUpKAk6CRA4-CjSiaZg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131007164544.GM10405@leitl.org>

On Mon, Oct 07, 2013 at 09:12:33AM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:

> Among the free services I get - nope.  I see no data, either statistical or
> anecdotal from my own experience, that suggests we are anywhere near a peak
> on this.

I'm referring to advanced dumpster divers here. Probably not many freegans
are reading this list. I would be genuinely interested about their pickings
in UK (London, largely) and US. My theory is that there's less waste now,
but I have no actual data.
 
> You are right to point out that free services are not free products,
> though.  Someone always pays for the products eventually - even if that
> price often (though not always, especially for raw ingredients such as oil)
> gets lower over time, as more efficient ways to make and/or use the
> products are discovered.  (For instance, if oil gets 1.2 times as expensive
> but cars get twice the MPG, then it net costs less to drive a certain
> distance.)

What we're seeing empirically, in the US, is that nonessential driving
is reduced, aka demand destruction. I wonder when the reality of fuel
prices at the pump and economy versus the rhetoric will percolate through.
It doesn't seem to, so far.
 
> 
> > Mining has ceased last century, as the richer ore veins have been
> > exhausted.
> 
> 
> "Ceased" is a strong word.  It doesn't mean "in decline", it means

Well, that particular mine (the largest medieval mine, 85% of world's
silver came from there during its peak in 1500) was shuttered in 1975. 
It might be reopened again, if the price increases make the lower ore 
grades and deeper mining cost effective. We should also see some of
the copper and silver substituted (e.g. Cu being substituted by
aluminium bronzes and aluminium), similarly as whale oil is no longer
much in demand. But some elements are more vital than others.

> "completely stopped".  If mining ceased no later than 2000 (depending on
> where you put the century mark), then what's with all the active,
> productive mines today in 2013?

I don't know when copper production is supposed to peak, some say
2040 http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3086 -- I think we don't have
sufficient data to be able to tell, quite yet.

Some minerals are critical, others are less so
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5239
 
> And, of course, there's the potential for asteroid mining.  It hasn't
> started yet, and there's quite a bit to do, but the amount of energy needed
> to get it seriously productive seems to be within current reserves - so
> long as that effort is started soon enough, of course.

I'm very optimistic long-term, but we must get there first. I'm not
at all optimistic mid-term, simply because the evidence shows that
we're making pretty much all mistakes in the book. If you make too
many mistakes, there's a critical mass beyond which you no longer
can recover. That possibility should scare people shitless, and make
them move in order to avoid that scenario. Unfortunately, we monkeys
are quite lousy dealing with abstract threats.


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Mon Oct  7 17:29:36 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 11:29:36 -0600
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <20131007164544.GM10405@leitl.org>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQ7XebBDBersUBS6kjeY4Tq0deHUpKAk6CRA4-CjSiaZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007164544.GM10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwYu_cLRp-94YoO87eY0L7AtWXq-78Ffyde8=hHyLniusw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 10:45 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Mon, Oct 07, 2013 at 09:12:33AM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:
>
> > Among the free services I get - nope.  I see no data, either statistical
> or
> > anecdotal from my own experience, that suggests we are anywhere near a
> peak
> > on this.
>
> I'm referring to advanced dumpster divers here. Probably not many freegans
> are reading this list. I would be genuinely interested about their pickings
> in UK (London, largely) and US. My theory is that there's less waste now,
> but I have no actual data.
>

Even the government isn't wasteful enough to collect data on something this
useless. If there is less waste, then that is a GOOD THING. Conservation is
always the lowest hanging fruit. I didn't even laugh so much when Obama
said "Inflate your tires" though he got dumped on for saying so. Dumpster
diving may be a way of life for a fringe, but that's not what I'm talking
about when I talk about stuff being free in great amounts these days.


> > You are right to point out that free services are not free products,
> > though.  Someone always pays for the products eventually - even if that
> > price often (though not always, especially for raw ingredients such as
> oil)
> > gets lower over time, as more efficient ways to make and/or use the
> > products are discovered.  (For instance, if oil gets 1.2 times as
> expensive
> > but cars get twice the MPG, then it net costs less to drive a certain
> > distance.)
>
> What we're seeing empirically, in the US, is that nonessential driving
> is reduced, aka demand destruction. I wonder when the reality of fuel
> prices at the pump and economy versus the rhetoric will percolate through.
> It doesn't seem to, so far.
>

But even products can be free to the users. For example, Google paid for
hard drives that store my email. Yes, they made up for it with advertising,
which I read. But the hard drive space is "free" to me in terms of actual
cash. I do pay for it with a minimal amount of time.

> "completely stopped".  If mining ceased no later than 2000 (depending on
> > where you put the century mark), then what's with all the active,
> > productive mines today in 2013?
>
> I don't know when copper production is supposed to peak, some say
> 2040 http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3086 -- I think we don't have
> sufficient data to be able to tell, quite yet.
>

Should be enough time to develop space based copper mining... don't you
think?


> Some minerals are critical, others are less so
> http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5239
>
> > And, of course, there's the potential for asteroid mining.  It hasn't
> > started yet, and there's quite a bit to do, but the amount of energy
> needed
> > to get it seriously productive seems to be within current reserves - so
> > long as that effort is started soon enough, of course.
>
> I'm very optimistic long-term, but we must get there first. I'm not
> at all optimistic mid-term, simply because the evidence shows that
> we're making pretty much all mistakes in the book. If you make too
> many mistakes, there's a critical mass beyond which you no longer
> can recover. That possibility should scare people shitless, and make
> them move in order to avoid that scenario. Unfortunately, we monkeys
> are quite lousy dealing with abstract threats.


But some monkeys are more clever than others. Fortunately, we still have
money enough that some of the clever monkeys can amass the fortunes
necessary to do this (Elan Musk, Paul Alan anyone?) despite the government
attempting to take most of it away to keep the non-functional monkeys
breathing and voting for the socialist agenda.

If we take all of Musk's money away from him and those like him, then
perhaps we will not be mining asteroids in the end and we can all eat
terrestrial rocks with Eugen.

-Kelly
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From anders at aleph.se  Mon Oct  7 19:42:12 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 07 Oct 2013 20:42:12 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3JNHooCWT4+Hw+CQoRC_h6ZFUg1_vWF-Z3=t4kXca1Eg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519DD7.1040406@aleph.se> <20131007054339.GR10405@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv3JNHooCWT4+Hw+CQoRC_h6ZFUg1_vWF-Z3=t4kXca1Eg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52530E94.8080505@aleph.se>

On 07/10/2013 15:45, John Clark wrote:
> On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 1:43 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org 
> <mailto:eugen at leitl.org>> wrote:
>
>     > Perfusion by diffusion works only on cm^3 scale systems.
>
>
> OK, but how is that a problem? Just cut the big brain up into slices 
> one centimeter thick or less; the gap between the slices could be made 
> very thin indeed, on the order of 30 nanometers.

The problem is: how do you cut a brain? A fresh brain has the 
consistency of stringy toothpaste: any cutting will do massive damage. 
Methods for sectioning brains properly always start with putting them in 
a bucket of formaline... for two weeks or more: http://goo.gl/9ueYjN
Think about what happens during that time. Yuck. As this paper shows, 
diffusion is slow enough to produce noticeable gradients of immunostains:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165027087800018

Now, there seem to exist perfusion based methods, and fixing in situ 
seems to be a great start for getting something that can be sliced well 
later:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9372749
http://www.abcam.com/ps/pdf/protocols/perfusion.pdf
Some aim at rapid fixation by injecting fixation liquid through basal 
blood vessels and the ventricles, followed by the bucket for a few days:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1860363/

It might even be applicable to whale brains (!):
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165027002001826

"Due to limited space and supplies of fresh water on board, the fixative 
usually had to be mixed for each whale using seawater instead of fresh 
water. When seawater was used, NaCl was not added to the solution. To 
prepare and open the skull, sharp painter scrapes, a circular bone saw 
with an adjustable blade, chisels and hammers were needed. The use of 
chemicals and saw on a very unstable working platform and the risk of 
spatters of bone splints, necessitated that the operator wore protective 
glasses, gasmask, chemical resistant industrial gloves, heavy oilskins 
and strong boots." - ah, tough Norwegian science!


-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University

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From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct  7 21:24:43 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 23:24:43 +0200
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwYu_cLRp-94YoO87eY0L7AtWXq-78Ffyde8=hHyLniusw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQ7XebBDBersUBS6kjeY4Tq0deHUpKAk6CRA4-CjSiaZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007164544.GM10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwYu_cLRp-94YoO87eY0L7AtWXq-78Ffyde8=hHyLniusw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131007212443.GS10405@leitl.org>

On Mon, Oct 07, 2013 at 11:29:36AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> Even the government isn't wasteful enough to collect data on something this

Your dogma is showing. This is going to make you miss some solutions.

> useless. If there is less waste, then that is a GOOD THING. Conservation is

Less waste is a good thing, but I'm using it instrumentally here, as a metric.

> always the lowest hanging fruit. I didn't even laugh so much when Obama
> said "Inflate your tires" though he got dumped on for saying so. Dumpster
> diving may be a way of life for a fringe, but that's not what I'm talking
> about when I talk about stuff being free in great amounts these days.

I realize what you're talking about. I'm talking about something else.
 
> But even products can be free to the users. For example, Google paid for
> hard drives that store my email. Yes, they made up for it with advertising,

Google is not selling cloud services. Google is selling their users.
You're not the customer, you're the product.

> which I read. But the hard drive space is "free" to me in terms of actual
> cash. I do pay for it with a minimal amount of time.

You're having only a tiny idea of what you're paying for it.
 
> Should be enough time to develop space based copper mining... don't you
> think?

What, about 30 years? No way in hell. Go talk to rocket people to
realize how much you don't know. 
 
> But some monkeys are more clever than others. Fortunately, we still have

Their cleverness does not translate into moving all the other monkeys
from their furry butts.

> money enough that some of the clever monkeys can amass the fortunes
> necessary to do this (Elan Musk, Paul Alan anyone?) despite the government

I'm happy that these guys exist. I'm unhappy that the bulk of capital
amassment is unproductive. I'm unhappy that much of wealth-building lies
in our past.

> attempting to take most of it away to keep the non-functional monkeys
> breathing and voting for the socialist agenda.
> 
> If we take all of Musk's money away from him and those like him, then
> perhaps we will not be mining asteroids in the end and we can all eat
> terrestrial rocks with Eugen.

I'm getting tired of arguing with a caricature. Please try to be more
amusing in future.


From max at maxmore.com  Mon Oct  7 21:34:25 2013
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 14:34:25 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <52530E94.8080505@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519DD7.1040406@aleph.se> <20131007054339.GR10405@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv3JNHooCWT4+Hw+CQoRC_h6ZFUg1_vWF-Z3=t4kXca1Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <52530E94.8080505@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAJX-7wXpnZhJ9cvLc6WiBvz6Up4CPLy64tOzS2ct7H5wDnWuYw@mail.gmail.com>

Someone mentioned a Cryonics magazine article on plastic embedding vs
cryopreservation. You can find the article here:

http://www.alcor.org/magazine/2013/01/16/chemical-brain-preservation-and-human-suspended-animation/

--Max



On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 12:42 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

>  On 07/10/2013 15:45, John Clark wrote:
>
> On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 1:43 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>
> > Perfusion by diffusion works only on cm^3 scale systems.
>>
>
>  OK, but how is that a problem? Just cut the big brain up into slices one
> centimeter thick or less; the gap between the slices could be made very
> thin indeed, on the order of 30 nanometers.
>
>
> The problem is: how do you cut a brain? A fresh brain has the consistency
> of stringy toothpaste: any cutting will do massive damage. Methods for
> sectioning brains properly always start with putting them in a bucket of
> formaline... for two weeks or more: http://goo.gl/9ueYjN
> Think about what happens during that time. Yuck. As this paper shows,
> diffusion is slow enough to produce noticeable gradients of immunostains:
> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165027087800018
>
> Now, there seem to exist perfusion based methods, and fixing in situ seems
> to be a great start for getting something that can be sliced well later:
> http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9372749
> http://www.abcam.com/ps/pdf/protocols/perfusion.pdf
> Some aim at rapid fixation by injecting fixation liquid through basal
> blood vessels and the ventricles, followed by the bucket for a few days:
> http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1860363/
>
> It might even be applicable to whale brains (!):
> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165027002001826
>
> "Due to limited space and supplies of fresh water on board, the fixative
> usually had to be mixed for each whale using seawater instead of fresh
> water. When seawater was used, NaCl was not added to the solution. To
> prepare and open the skull, sharp painter scrapes, a circular bone saw with
> an adjustable blade, chisels and hammers were needed. The use of chemicals
> and saw on a very unstable working platform and the risk of spatters of
> bone splints, necessitated that the operator wore protective glasses,
> gasmask, chemical resistant industrial gloves, heavy oilskins and strong
> boots." - ah, tough Norwegian science!
>
>
> --
> Anders Sandberg,
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Faculty of Philosophy
> Oxford University
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
http://www.amazon.com/Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-Technology-Philosophy/dp/1118334310/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1372225570&sr=1-1&keywords=the+transhumanist+reader
President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Mon Oct  7 22:36:48 2013
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 15:36:48 -0700
Subject: [ExI] roboburgers to go
In-Reply-To: <CAL+RtPd79pDEg54reJsm4UxFxd--06rMv=fvtqTc5CKor16R5w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <0a1801ceb94d$bc6a3360$353e9a20$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPd79pDEg54reJsm4UxFxd--06rMv=fvtqTc5CKor16R5w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy04qBU1tohNgjA+fpecQMKdwGpm7JHQHK4cszFMkwH2xg@mail.gmail.com>

Will it succeed?


http://foodbeast.com/2012/11/16/heres-a-look-at-the-worlds-first-smart-restaurant-chain-kitchen-free-and-run-by-robots-2/#Sl3R7e6XK4ZUuZRd.01


John


On Mon, Sep 30, 2013 at 6:16 PM, Giovanni Santostasi
<gsantostasi at gmail.com>wrote:

> There is only one solution. Automate everything and give people a living
> salary. Wealth should be shared.
> Otherwise Elysium scenarios would ensue.
> Give paradise to everybody.
> Only way.
> Giovanni
>
>
>
> On Tue, Sep 24, 2013 at 12:44 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
>> ** **
>>
>> We knew this was going to happen eventually.  A local company did this.
>> The timing is interesting, since the fast food workers are threatening to
>> strike unless their wages are raised way above minimum.  Check it outwardly:
>> ****
>>
>> ** **
>>
>> http://momentummachines.com/#team****
>>
>> ** **
>>
>> spike****
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 02:38:11 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 19:38:11 -0700
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB5rFzx46iBAb=NNSXunN2u3_p6M1AJc5PfgRecdvP1acg@mail.gmail.com>

Tomasz Rola <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote

> Please forgive me this programmer's hubris of mine, everybody.

> But to be frank, I consider introduction of programmable computer to be on
par with introduction of the wheel and writing. Especially when they met
the so called Individual and started to be used by her/him for all things
everydaily, big and small.

I might possibly be the oldest person on this list.  I was born in
1942. That's pretty much before the computer age.  I was in high
school before I saw my first computer, a vacuum tube IBM 650. Worked
my way through college programing geophysical type cases on an IBM
7494 and a CDC 6400. After I got out of school started a company that
designed, built and programmed industrial control and communication
devices. One of them had 34 80186 chips in it.

One of the uncomfortable facts I don't like to consider is that the
whole industrial complex upon which humans produce computers is
remarkably complex and fragile. It seems unlike to survive a serious
upset.

And then what?

Keith


From msd001 at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 02:54:01 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 22:54:01 -0400
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB5rFzx46iBAb=NNSXunN2u3_p6M1AJc5PfgRecdvP1acg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB5rFzx46iBAb=NNSXunN2u3_p6M1AJc5PfgRecdvP1acg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbL0o6HR9jSXTr0iMu7KLcdsOrqAEPXnMdvTCFJEV5KEMg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 10:38 PM, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com>wrote:

>
> One of the uncomfortable facts I don't like to consider is that the
> whole industrial complex upon which humans produce computers is
> remarkably complex and fragile. It seems unlike to survive a serious
> upset.
>
> And then what?
>
>
Makes me think of Falken's 'life lesson' regarding the demise of the
dinosaurs in Wargames.

How did we get to where we are now?  We have everything as it is as proof
what more-primitive people are capable of achieving.  I guess the sentiment
you are expressing is whether or not our less-primitive selves would have
any hope of re-asserting the status quo if it were taken away.  How far
would civilization have to fall if modern wizards and their magic were
suddenly absent from the world?

I feel like it would be pretty far.

What might survive?
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 03:36:33 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 21:36:33 -0600
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <20131007212443.GS10405@leitl.org>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQ7XebBDBersUBS6kjeY4Tq0deHUpKAk6CRA4-CjSiaZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007164544.GM10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwYu_cLRp-94YoO87eY0L7AtWXq-78Ffyde8=hHyLniusw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007212443.GS10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwaaFLzWWipyuRXnx4xVemwAXQ5dz+yFeYJCTqdB7BoF9Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 3:24 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Mon, Oct 07, 2013 at 11:29:36AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
> > Even the government isn't wasteful enough to collect data on something
> this
>
> Your dogma is showing. This is going to make you miss some solutions.
>

I don't mind my dogma. If the solutions your referring to involve BIG
religion, BIG government, BIG science, BIG corporations or other things
involving too damn many people, then I'm happy to opt out of those
solutions. They usually don't work so well anyway and they are almost
universally annoying.


> > useless. If there is less waste, then that is a GOOD THING. Conservation
> is
>
> Less waste is a good thing, but I'm using it instrumentally here, as a
> metric.
>

As usual, you want to use metrics of things that cannot be measured. It is
very convenient to do that, since you can use such metrics to make any
argument you wish to. However, you do this at the cost of your arguments
being weighted lower than they would if you provided actual data. (Actual
data meaning anything that didn't originate on theoildrum as a first order
approximation).


> > always the lowest hanging fruit. I didn't even laugh so much when Obama
> > said "Inflate your tires" though he got dumped on for saying so. Dumpster
> > diving may be a way of life for a fringe, but that's not what I'm talking
> > about when I talk about stuff being free in great amounts these days.
>
> I realize what you're talking about. I'm talking about something else.
>

I understand. I reserve the right to reject your reality and substitute my
own.


> > But even products can be free to the users. For example, Google paid for
> > hard drives that store my email. Yes, they made up for it with
> advertising,
>
> Google is not selling cloud services. Google is selling their users.
> You're not the customer, you're the product.
>

You may have a point there.


> > which I read. But the hard drive space is "free" to me in terms of actual
> > cash. I do pay for it with a minimal amount of time.
>
> You're having only a tiny idea of what you're paying for it.
>

Other than advertising, I know of no really big revenue stream for Google.
Would you please enlighten me? My privacy?? Don't know how they monetize
that yet.


> > Should be enough time to develop space based copper mining... don't you
> > think?
>
> What, about 30 years? No way in hell. Go talk to rocket people to
> realize how much you don't know.
>

There are rocket people here. They seem to be relatively optimistic... but
perhaps I overstate it. I'll let them speak for themselves.


> > But some monkeys are more clever than others. Fortunately, we still have
>
> Their cleverness does not translate into moving all the other monkeys
> from their furry butts.
>

Sadly no, since we have so many clever monkeys who are busy caring for the
monkeys that won't get off their furry butts.


> > money enough that some of the clever monkeys can amass the fortunes
> > necessary to do this (Elan Musk, Paul Alan anyone?) despite the
> government
>
> I'm happy that these guys exist. I'm unhappy that the bulk of capital
> amassment is unproductive. I'm unhappy that much of wealth-building lies
> in our past.
>

Ooooh. I'm so scared. Wealth building in our past? Are you mad?

I've known many rich people myself. None of them are sitting on their ass
or their money the way you seem to think they do. All of them are busy
investing or building something. Maybe there is something different about
rich people in Utah than in other places, but I rather doubt it. Would you
like to pull a number out of your butt to back up your view of capital
amassment?

Even rich people who do sit on their asses have money men who invest for
them. They don't buy millions of dollars worth of savings bonds for heck
sake. It is ridiculous to say that rich folk's money doesn't do anything.
Numbers please.


> > attempting to take most of it away to keep the non-functional monkeys
> > breathing and voting for the socialist agenda.
> >
> > If we take all of Musk's money away from him and those like him, then
> > perhaps we will not be mining asteroids in the end and we can all eat
> > terrestrial rocks with Eugen.
>
> I'm getting tired of arguing with a caricature. Please try to be more
> amusing in future.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzHjIj3fpR8&list=PL6F85DE52B8FD688D&index=9

-Kelly
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 04:33:29 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 00:33:29 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Purified humanity Re: Your Genome Is a Post-Apocalyptic
	Wasteland
In-Reply-To: <52519ECF.7090409@aleph.se>
References: <CAAc1gFgHA7oOBhCumNmd=PL+-FUd4H7_qVfzrxEDbkSvmRFbNw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519ECF.7090409@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFj2DHUVA4DR5FuSRB6Fx_2ueWjfnxKm2aYyD_-YSTp_3A@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 6, 2013 at 1:33 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
>
> Removing redundancy to make mutations directly lethal might not be optimal
> for all genes. A lot of mutations seem to just reduce performance, so you
> increase the risk of being born with reduced performance genes. After all,
> being heterozygous for sickle-cell anemia is not lethal, yet pretty
> annoying.

### Aren't heterozygotes almost always asymptomatic, aside from being
immune to malaria?

This said, I agree that changing the levels of redundancy would not be
a simple project - since we evolved with redundancy, it's woven deep
into our control logic, and untangling this association would be a
very complex undertaking, probably much more difficult than a "simple"
sweep to remove pseudogenes, and correct mutated ones.

Rafal


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 04:39:21 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 00:39:21 -0400
Subject: [ExI]
	=?utf-8?q?Tap_tap=E2=80=A6=2EHello=3F_Is_this_thing_on=3F_?=
	=?utf-8?q?=28Or_Zombie_Apocalypse!=29?=
In-Reply-To: <3BE3E642-B8AF-4182-99D4-3AADE05D500C@me.com>
References: <mailman.4.1380589161.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <3BE3E642-B8AF-4182-99D4-3AADE05D500C@me.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFjX9gCQAtyQyN8DED+92o8WUvjX8eRJ6tH59XcDJ=0jmg@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Oct 1, 2013 at 3:39 AM, Omar Rahman <rahmans at me.com> wrote:

> So, how are you all doing in the post apocalyptic libertarian paradise? This is twice now that the Disciples of Reagan have acted on his proclamation "Government is the problem!" I wonder how the markets will react to this elimination of government. That's the true test of anything and everything, right?
>
> Media pundits are coming for our brains......*crash* .....*bang*.......*aaaaahhhhhhHHHHaaaAAAAa* .....braaiiins............braaaaiiiiiinnnnnnssss............
>
> Braaaaaaaaiiiiinnnnnnnns,

### For something written by somebody with a brain, see here:

http://www.gosanangelo.com/news/2013/oct/06/thomas-sowell-who-shut-down-the-federal/

Rafal



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 04:44:06 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 00:44:06 -0400
Subject: [ExI] another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <52519CF7.4000200@aleph.se>
References: <CAAc1gFhVMgQMbFRwhrzPfUt26_hNnfUikKHLHHNP-L=BmqKmZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <524BEC29.2010505@aleph.se>
 <CAAc1gFhH7RSnw4yX3LzVnH4yeXR0X6Wzm=Lng9QvjxW2weXuog@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519CF7.4000200@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFhc_VhP9vMM2ZjqmxJZFfFsRGmWo-G+o-Y_DGFJJVxh6w@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 6, 2013 at 1:25 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> Ah, I think you misread me (in an interesting direction). I was not talking
> about dendritic tree computation, just finding out what was in the different
> synapses. If you do not know whether they are glutaminergic or dopaminergic,
> it doesn't matter how much you try to brute force what the rest of the cell
> is doing.

### Oh, ok :)

I would guess that the nanoscale MRS should be able to read the type
of synapse, since neurotransmitters, being small molecules, tend to
have clear MR spectra, so they should be easier to tell apart than
e.g. receptors or other proteins.

Rafal


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 04:51:01 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 00:51:01 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Purified humanity
In-Reply-To: <20131007143644.GF10405@leitl.org>
References: <mailman.30.1381142091.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <1381151147.6846.YahooMailNeo@web165005.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
 <20131007143644.GF10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFhK3mXO91MtEDpzaujPki+CQziq0+zD3NDCcszoNwCAxw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 10:36 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

>
> The problem with evolutionary systems is that seed is compact, and
> morphogenesis is a complex, trapdoor system. So there is no simple
> way to link bit mutations in the seed to the expressed adult system.
> It's pretty much like trying to invert a cryptohash.

### Massive sequence databases with millions of individual humans and
some data on their phenotypes should give us a lot of knowledge. With
in silico modeling of genetic control networks from /omic (proteomic,
genomic, interactomic) research and some 3D interaction simulations we
might get quite far in the next 30 years.

Which is not to say this is a simple endeavor.

Rafal


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 05:11:30 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 01:11:30 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2NBUnG3t+oCP1YTpX4zc=h8+L=+BAzf2F7BYnXpZeLnA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv0yhTD4HE8aXkDOYtkwr01-W0RLdKXB-BXON2Wwks_9SA@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519BAF.7020308@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv2NBUnG3t+oCP1YTpX4zc=h8+L=+BAzf2F7BYnXpZeLnA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFgE0f5kyRhCwAueTmD9FsbFh=CT8XA55vSNMogJFc2D_w@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 12:36 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> Because they wouldn't be photographing them I imagine that if Alcor were to
> ever use this technique their slides would be much WIDER than 20 microns,
> and they would have far fewer than 7400 slides. The only reason to slice the
> brain at all would be to ensure even diffusion of the chemical fixative.

### You need to take into account the damage introduced during
mechanical slicing. Even a single bad slice (torn, crushed, happens
all the time, as anybody who spent hours at a microtome can attest)
could scramble the long-distance fibers, and if you have many very
large slides there is really a lot of opportunity for non-salvageable
losses. This is not to say the idea is bad, but it might require a lot
of tweaking and development work, not necessarily possible on Alcor's
budget.

Vitrification with helium persufflation should allow complete
preservation of long-distance topology, making the subsequent
reconstruction work much easier.

Rafal


From spike66 at att.net  Tue Oct  8 04:58:59 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 21:58:59 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFjX9gCQAtyQyN8DED+92o8WUvjX8eRJ6tH59XcDJ=0jmg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.4.1380589161.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <3BE3E642-B8AF-4182-99D4-3AADE05D500C@me.com>
 <CAAc1gFjX9gCQAtyQyN8DED+92o8WUvjX8eRJ6tH59XcDJ=0jmg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <01bf01cec3e3$1a1cf160$4e56d420$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of Rafal Smigrodzki

### For something written by somebody with a brain, see here:

http://www.gosanangelo.com/news/2013/oct/06/thomas-sowell-who-shut-down-the-
federal/



Rafal_______________________________________________


Thanks Rafal, that is an excellent article.  They told us all these dire
consequences that would result from a government shutdown, but it was all
exaggerated.  Now the government is afraid no one will notice they shut
down.  So they go out of their way to be as annoying as possible:

http://legalinsurrection.com/2013/10/now-govt-trying-to-block-people-from-lo
oking-at-mt-rushmore-seriously/

If they really wanted to scare the bejeebers out of the proletariat with
something real, they should threaten to shut down the internet.  That would
stir even MY jaded libertarian soul.

Sowell made the case as clear as anyone has to date.  The answer he left out
is one I have been wondering all this time: if ObamaCare is to be
revenue-neutral as we were told, why does it need all this funding the House
of Representatives refuses to give?  Can't they just go ahead without
pumping money into it?  Why not?  If they did that, who wouldn't get paid,
and why do we need them anyway?  The law says you buy insurance, you go to
the doctor, the insurance company pays.  Where is all this government
funding needed for doing that?  Can't they just do the parts of it that
don't cost the government anything?

spike




From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 05:41:35 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2013 22:41:35 -0700
Subject: [ExI] New way to enumerate prime number
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB67Bu-J4zs-mMBMKfTjeDisW5JGZ3qcR_hWpMi8mK4woQ@mail.gmail.com>

I think there is at least one person on this list with an interest in
primes.  I have never seen anything like this that I know of.

  http://www.skycoyote.com/Tableau

Keith


From giulio at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 06:18:24 2013
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 08:18:24 +0200
Subject: [ExI] New way to enumerate prime number
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB67Bu-J4zs-mMBMKfTjeDisW5JGZ3qcR_hWpMi8mK4woQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB67Bu-J4zs-mMBMKfTjeDisW5JGZ3qcR_hWpMi8mK4woQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAKTCJycxeVWrFamOmTS4cYyJ+LsRpOyEoY71ETc=XtuPq=vv3Q@mail.gmail.com>

WOW - is this new?

On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 7:41 AM, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
> I think there is at least one person on this list with an interest in
> primes.  I have never seen anything like this that I know of.
>
>   http://www.skycoyote.com/Tableau
>
> Keith
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From anders at aleph.se  Tue Oct  8 08:18:22 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 08 Oct 2013 09:18:22 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Purified humanity Re: Your Genome Is a Post-Apocalyptic
 Wasteland
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFj2DHUVA4DR5FuSRB6Fx_2ueWjfnxKm2aYyD_-YSTp_3A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFgHA7oOBhCumNmd=PL+-FUd4H7_qVfzrxEDbkSvmRFbNw@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519ECF.7090409@aleph.se>
 <CAAc1gFj2DHUVA4DR5FuSRB6Fx_2ueWjfnxKm2aYyD_-YSTp_3A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5253BFCE.9030900@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-08 05:33, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> On Sun, Oct 6, 2013 at 1:33 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
>> Removing redundancy to make mutations directly lethal might not be optimal
>> for all genes. A lot of mutations seem to just reduce performance, so you
>> increase the risk of being born with reduced performance genes. After all,
>> being heterozygous for sickle-cell anemia is not lethal, yet pretty
>> annoying.
> ### Aren't heterozygotes almost always asymptomatic, aside from being
> immune to malaria?

Whoops, I intended to write homozygote.


> This said, I agree that changing the levels of redundancy would not be
> a simple project - since we evolved with redundancy, it's woven deep
> into our control logic, and untangling this association would be a
> very complex undertaking, probably much more difficult than a "simple"
> sweep to remove pseudogenes, and correct mutated ones.

I wonder how many of the pseudogenes have accidental regulatory function 
by now? One of the annoyances with a very redundant and messy system is 
that it likely quickly adapts to shifts in the messy contents, but 
shifts in overall level of messiness may have qualitative effects. Would 
be interesting to study.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From anders at aleph.se  Tue Oct  8 08:34:37 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 08 Oct 2013 09:34:37 +0100
Subject: [ExI] New way to enumerate prime number
In-Reply-To: <CAKTCJycxeVWrFamOmTS4cYyJ+LsRpOyEoY71ETc=XtuPq=vv3Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB67Bu-J4zs-mMBMKfTjeDisW5JGZ3qcR_hWpMi8mK4woQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJycxeVWrFamOmTS4cYyJ+LsRpOyEoY71ETc=XtuPq=vv3Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5253C39D.2050508@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-08 07:18, Giulio Prisco wrote:
> WOW - is this new?

I have never seen it before.

However, I think this is a restatement of the sieve of Eratosthenes:  
look at the third colum: it is going 0101010, allowing only odd numbers 
after 2 to be prime. The fourth goes 0110110110, allowing only numbers 
not divisible by 3. And so on.


>
> On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 7:41 AM, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
>> I think there is at least one person on this list with an interest in
>> primes.  I have never seen anything like this that I know of.
>>
>>    http://www.skycoyote.com/Tableau
>>
>> Keith
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 09:27:05 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 10:27:05 +0100
Subject: [ExI] New way to enumerate prime number
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB67Bu-J4zs-mMBMKfTjeDisW5JGZ3qcR_hWpMi8mK4woQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB67Bu-J4zs-mMBMKfTjeDisW5JGZ3qcR_hWpMi8mK4woQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armj7wjoued9kkBZn+txMB5guMM1G=oZd416dgYNf7q34KQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 6:41 AM, Keith Henson  wrote:
> I think there is at least one person on this list with an interest in
> primes.  I have never seen anything like this that I know of.
>
>   http://www.skycoyote.com/Tableau
>
>

Google seems to be developing a grudge against Keith.
Gmail puts his posts into the Spam folder, claiming that similar posts
have been marked as spam by users.

To me, there doesn't seem to be anything unusual in these posts.
Is there a campaign going on to mark all Keith's posts as spam?

BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Oct  8 09:49:53 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 11:49:53 +0200
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwaaFLzWWipyuRXnx4xVemwAXQ5dz+yFeYJCTqdB7BoF9Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQ7XebBDBersUBS6kjeY4Tq0deHUpKAk6CRA4-CjSiaZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007164544.GM10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwYu_cLRp-94YoO87eY0L7AtWXq-78Ffyde8=hHyLniusw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007212443.GS10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwaaFLzWWipyuRXnx4xVemwAXQ5dz+yFeYJCTqdB7BoF9Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131008094953.GI10405@leitl.org>

On Mon, Oct 07, 2013 at 09:36:33PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> > Your dogma is showing. This is going to make you miss some solutions.
> >
> 
> I don't mind my dogma. If the solutions your referring to involve BIG
> religion, BIG government, BIG science, BIG corporations or other things
> involving too damn many people, then I'm happy to opt out of those
> solutions. They usually don't work so well anyway and they are almost
> universally annoying.

As a *pragmatic* transhumanist anarchist I'm primarily interested
in working around defects in the human condition in order to enhance
co-operation. You're obviously taking me for somebody else.
 
> 
> > > useless. If there is less waste, then that is a GOOD THING. Conservation
> > is
> >
> > Less waste is a good thing, but I'm using it instrumentally here, as a
> > metric.
> >
> 
> As usual, you want to use metrics of things that cannot be measured. It is

Bull. I can trust a long-term freegan to recognize subjective trends
in a given area, and integrate multiple such data points into a global
trend. 

> very convenient to do that, since you can use such metrics to make any
> argument you wish to. However, you do this at the cost of your arguments
> being weighted lower than they would if you provided actual data. (Actual
> data meaning anything that didn't originate on theoildrum as a first order

You're cherry-picking. From now on I demand evidence in peer-reviewed
publications. If you're too stupid to understand the value of TOD I
can pull up equivalent publications from Nature and Science. I hope you
can do the same for your polyannish pronouncements.

> approximation).
> 
> 
> > > always the lowest hanging fruit. I didn't even laugh so much when Obama
> > > said "Inflate your tires" though he got dumped on for saying so. Dumpster
> > > diving may be a way of life for a fringe, but that's not what I'm talking
> > > about when I talk about stuff being free in great amounts these days.
> >
> > I realize what you're talking about. I'm talking about something else.
> >
> 
> I understand. I reserve the right to reject your reality and substitute my
> own.

If you keep doing that you'll wind up alone in a room.
 
> 
> > > But even products can be free to the users. For example, Google paid for
> > > hard drives that store my email. Yes, they made up for it with
> > advertising,
> >
> > Google is not selling cloud services. Google is selling their users.
> > You're not the customer, you're the product.
> >
> 
> You may have a point there.
> 
> 
> > > which I read. But the hard drive space is "free" to me in terms of actual
> > > cash. I do pay for it with a minimal amount of time.
> >
> > You're having only a tiny idea of what you're paying for it.
> >
> 
> Other than advertising, I know of no really big revenue stream for Google.
> Would you please enlighten me? My privacy?? Don't know how they monetize
> that yet.

How much is your freedom worth in a fascist state? Please put it that
in exact dollar and cents values. 
 
> 
> > > Should be enough time to develop space based copper mining... don't you
> > > think?
> >
> > What, about 30 years? No way in hell. Go talk to rocket people to
> > realize how much you don't know.
> >
> 
> There are rocket people here. They seem to be relatively optimistic... but

I'm just an egg, but I understand the economics of mass transfer in
the solar system, and our ability to boostrap autonomous fabrication
capacities in remote locations, which is nonexistent. You want kilotons
of cheap metal from lightminutes away deorbited and semi-soft landed
in three decades. 

Sure, if Singularity lands. Should be any day now. 

> perhaps I overstate it. I'll let them speak for themselves.
> 
> 
> > > But some monkeys are more clever than others. Fortunately, we still have
> >
> > Their cleverness does not translate into moving all the other monkeys
> > from their furry butts.
> >
> 
> Sadly no, since we have so many clever monkeys who are busy caring for the
> monkeys that won't get off their furry butts.

So you agree that mere cleverness of a tiny fraction is insufficient,
if the majority remain engaged in dysfunctional, long-term suicidal behavior.
 
> 
> > > money enough that some of the clever monkeys can amass the fortunes
> > > necessary to do this (Elan Musk, Paul Alan anyone?) despite the
> > government
> >
> > I'm happy that these guys exist. I'm unhappy that the bulk of capital
> > amassment is unproductive. I'm unhappy that much of wealth-building lies
> > in our past.
> >
> 
> Ooooh. I'm so scared. Wealth building in our past? Are you mad?

Funny, I think you're stark hopping mad, but it seems the feeling is
mutual. We can't be possibly both right. So one of us has a much
greater disconnect from reality that the other. 
 
> I've known many rich people myself. None of them are sitting on their ass

Anecdote.

> or their money the way you seem to think they do. All of them are busy
> investing or building something. Maybe there is something different about
> rich people in Utah than in other places, but I rather doubt it. Would you

Definitely anecdote.

> like to pull a number out of your butt to back up your view of capital
> amassment?
> 
> Even rich people who do sit on their asses have money men who invest for
> them. They don't buy millions of dollars worth of savings bonds for heck

You're obviously clueless about basic mechanisms of wealth transfer
and trends in social stratification.

> sake. It is ridiculous to say that rich folk's money doesn't do anything.
> Numbers please.

No. You point me to peer-reviewed publications proving your point.
Nature/Science should be a good first start. Put up, or shut up.
 
> 
> > > attempting to take most of it away to keep the non-functional monkeys
> > > breathing and voting for the socialist agenda.
> > >
> > > If we take all of Musk's money away from him and those like him, then
> > > perhaps we will not be mining asteroids in the end and we can all eat
> > > terrestrial rocks with Eugen.
> >
> > I'm getting tired of arguing with a caricature. Please try to be more
> > amusing in future.
> 
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzHjIj3fpR8&list=PL6F85DE52B8FD688D&index=9




From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 10:14:20 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 11:14:20 +0100
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwaaFLzWWipyuRXnx4xVemwAXQ5dz+yFeYJCTqdB7BoF9Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQ7XebBDBersUBS6kjeY4Tq0deHUpKAk6CRA4-CjSiaZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007164544.GM10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwYu_cLRp-94YoO87eY0L7AtWXq-78Ffyde8=hHyLniusw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007212443.GS10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwaaFLzWWipyuRXnx4xVemwAXQ5dz+yFeYJCTqdB7BoF9Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjTZX3iu4qo+XAQY=ctzS=bf=ypVgPvTPhUtq4eW8Kv-g@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 4:36 AM, Kelly Anderson  wrote:
<snip>
> I've known many rich people myself. None of them are sitting on their ass or
> their money the way you seem to think they do. All of them are busy
> investing or building something. Maybe there is something different about
> rich people in Utah than in other places, but I rather doubt it. Would you
> like to pull a number out of your butt to back up your view of capital
> amassment?
>
> Even rich people who do sit on their asses have money men who invest for
> them. They don't buy millions of dollars worth of savings bonds for heck
> sake. It is ridiculous to say that rich folk's money doesn't do anything.
> Numbers please.
>

Well, there are a few well-known rich tech people building rockets,
planes, robots, etc. But these few seem to be vastly outweighed by the
unknown rich.

In 2013 there were 442 US billionaires. A lot were in hedge funds /
finance industry (of course).
There are about 50,000 super-rich (over 30 million USD) and over 5
million mere millionaires.

So there are plenty of people with money to do stuff. But there seems
to be very little news about what they might be doing with their
wealth.

BillK


From anders at aleph.se  Tue Oct  8 10:23:10 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 08 Oct 2013 11:23:10 +0100
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <20131008094953.GI10405@leitl.org>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQ7XebBDBersUBS6kjeY4Tq0deHUpKAk6CRA4-CjSiaZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007164544.GM10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwYu_cLRp-94YoO87eY0L7AtWXq-78Ffyde8=hHyLniusw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007212443.GS10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwaaFLzWWipyuRXnx4xVemwAXQ5dz+yFeYJCTqdB7BoF9Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131008094953.GI10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <5253DD0E.7040509@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-08 10:49, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Mon, Oct 07, 2013 at 09:36:33PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>> As usual, you want to use metrics of things that cannot be measured. It is
> Bull. I can trust a long-term freegan to recognize subjective trends
> in a given area, and integrate multiple such data points into a global
> trend.

Bad method. (down, bad method! down!) Subjective trends are strongly 
biased, especially  when linked to highly valued beliefs. Aggregating 
them from independent sources with the same rough biases is worse than 
selecting random anecdotes. This method will strongly tell you that the 
moon has a major influence on health-care admission types; just ask some 
nurses.

Now, waste numbers are tracked in an objective way by various agencies 
since they have to deal with landfills, and this is where you would get 
not just samples but aggregated numbers for entire societies.

I do not have the time to delve deep into this, but looking at
http://wwws3.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/municipal-waste-generation-per-capita-in-western-europe-eu-15-new-member-states-eu-12-eu-countries-eu-27-and-total-in-europe-eu-27-turkey-croatia-norway-iceland-switzerland-7/image_xlarge
and
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Municipal_waste_statistics
suggests that municipal waste per capita remains fairly constant in the 
core EU - the variations we see are far smaller than anything that could 
be reliably observed on the ground. West Balkan shows a markedly rising 
trends as their living standard improves (there the freegans ought to be 
able to notice year-by-year changes). Maybe the composition of the waste 
is changing; I leave that for other data dumpster divers.


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 10:45:19 2013
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 12:45:19 +0200
Subject: [ExI] New way to enumerate prime number
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armj7wjoued9kkBZn+txMB5guMM1G=oZd416dgYNf7q34KQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB67Bu-J4zs-mMBMKfTjeDisW5JGZ3qcR_hWpMi8mK4woQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armj7wjoued9kkBZn+txMB5guMM1G=oZd416dgYNf7q34KQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFQPsZ2sTJ6sD38rxnZGHy=MAPYkLDOxfPf8JBXoqFotUA@mail.gmail.com>

Indeed, Google is throwing Keith's posts into spam.

I dislike Google, more and more.


On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 11:27 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 6:41 AM, Keith Henson  wrote:
> > I think there is at least one person on this list with an interest in
> > primes.  I have never seen anything like this that I know of.
> >
> >   http://www.skycoyote.com/Tableau
> >
> >
>
> Google seems to be developing a grudge against Keith.
> Gmail puts his posts into the Spam folder, claiming that similar posts
> have been marked as spam by users.
>
> To me, there doesn't seem to be anything unusual in these posts.
> Is there a campaign going on to mark all Keith's posts as spam?
>
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Oct  8 11:08:11 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 13:08:11 +0200
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <5253DD0E.7040509@aleph.se>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007084408.GK10405@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQ7XebBDBersUBS6kjeY4Tq0deHUpKAk6CRA4-CjSiaZg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007164544.GM10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwYu_cLRp-94YoO87eY0L7AtWXq-78Ffyde8=hHyLniusw@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131007212443.GS10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwaaFLzWWipyuRXnx4xVemwAXQ5dz+yFeYJCTqdB7BoF9Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131008094953.GI10405@leitl.org> <5253DD0E.7040509@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20131008110811.GM10405@leitl.org>

On Tue, Oct 08, 2013 at 11:23:10AM +0100, Anders Sandberg wrote:

> Now, waste numbers are tracked in an objective way by various
> agencies since they have to deal with landfills, and this is where
> you would get not just samples but aggregated numbers for entire
> societies.

I'm not talking about bulk waste. I'm talking about salvageables
like http://chronopause.com/chronopause.com/index.php/2011/09/29/doing-the-time-warp/index.html

If you're aware of any statistics covering these, I would
be very interested to hear them.
 
> I do not have the time to delve deep into this, but looking at
> http://wwws3.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/municipal-waste-generation-per-capita-in-western-europe-eu-15-new-member-states-eu-12-eu-countries-eu-27-and-total-in-europe-eu-27-turkey-croatia-norway-iceland-switzerland-7/image_xlarge
> and
> http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Municipal_waste_statistics
> suggests that municipal waste per capita remains fairly constant in
> the core EU - the variations we see are far smaller than anything
> that could be reliably observed on the ground. West Balkan shows a
> markedly rising trends as their living standard improves (there the
> freegans ought to be able to notice year-by-year changes). Maybe the
> composition of the waste is changing; I leave that for other data
> dumpster divers.


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Oct  8 11:37:46 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 13:37:46 +0200
Subject: [ExI] When Wealth Disappears
Message-ID: <20131008113746.GO10405@leitl.org>


(doesn't mention the actual core problem: exponential growth
kinetics reaching fundamental limits "unexpectedly")

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/07/opinion/when-wealth-disappears.html?ref=opinion&_r=0&pagewanted=print

When Wealth Disappears

By STEPHEN D. KING

LONDON ? AS bad as things in Washington are ? the federal government shutdown
since Tuesday, the slim but real potential for a debt default, a political
system that seems increasingly ungovernable ? they are going to get much
worse, for the United States and other advanced economies, in the years
ahead.

>From the end of World War II to the brief interlude of prosperity after the
cold war, politicians could console themselves with the thought that rapid
economic growth would eventually rescue them from short-term fiscal
transgressions. The miracle of rising living standards encouraged rich
countries increasingly to live beyond their means, happy in the belief that
healthy returns on their real estate and investment portfolios would let them
pay off debts, educate their children and pay for their medical care and
retirement. This was, it seemed, the postwar generations? collective destiny.

But the numbers no longer add up. Even before the Great Recession, rich
countries were seeing their tax revenues weaken, social expenditures rise,
government debts accumulate and creditors fret thanks to lower economic
growth rates.

We are reaching end times for Western affluence. Between 2000 and 2007, ahead
of the Great Recession, the United States economy grew at a meager average of
about 2.4 percent a year ? a full percentage point below the 3.4 percent
average of the 1980s and 1990s. From 2007 to 2012, annual growth amounted to
just 0.8 percent. In Europe, as is well known, the situation is even worse.
Both sides of the North Atlantic have already succumbed to a Japan-style
?lost decade.?

Surely this is only an extended cyclical dip, some policy makers say.
Champions of stimulus assert that another huge round of public spending or
monetary easing ? maybe even a commitment to higher inflation and government
borrowing ? will jump-start the engine. Proponents of austerity argue that
only indiscriminate deficit reduction, accompanied by reforming entitlement
programs and slashing regulations, will unleash the ?animal spirits?
necessary for a private-sector renaissance.

Both sides are wrong. It?s now abundantly clear that forecasters have been
too optimistic, boldly projecting rates of growth that have failed to
transpire.

The White House and Congress, unable to reach agreement in the face of a
fiscal black hole, have turned over the economic repair job to the Federal
Reserve, which has bought trillions of dollars in securities to keep interest
rates low. That has propped up the stock market but left many working
Americans no better off. Growth remains lackluster.

The end of the golden age cannot be explained by some technological reversal.
>From iPad apps to shale gas, technology continues to advance. The underlying
reason for the stagnation is that a half-century of remarkable one-off
developments in the industrialized world will not be repeated.

First was the unleashing of global trade, after a period of protectionism and
isolationism between the world wars, enabling manufacturing to take off
across Western Europe, North America and East Asia. A boom that great is
unlikely to be repeated in advanced economies.

Second, financial innovations that first appeared in the 1920s, notably
consumer credit, spread in the postwar decades. Post-crisis, the pace of such
borrowing is muted, and likely to stay that way.

Third, social safety nets became widespread, reducing the need for households
to save for unforeseen emergencies. Those nets are fraying now, meaning that
consumers will have to save more for ever longer periods of retirement.

Fourth, reduced discrimination flooded the labor market with the pent-up
human capital of women. Women now make up a majority of the American labor
force; that proportion can rise only a little bit more, if at all.

Finally, the quality of education improved: in 1950, only 15 percent of
American men and 4 percent of American women between ages 20 and 24 were
enrolled in college. The proportions for both sexes are now over 30 percent,
but with graduates no longer guaranteed substantial wage increases, the costs
of education may come to outweigh the benefits.

These five factors induced, if not complacency, an assumption that economies
could expand forever.

Adam Smith discerned this back in 1776 in his ?Wealth of Nations?: ?It is in
the progressive state, while the society is advancing to the further
acquisition, rather than when it has acquired its full complement of riches,
that the condition of the labouring poor, of the great body of the people,
seems to be the happiest and the most comfortable. It is hard in the
stationary, and miserable in the declining state.?

The decades before the French Revolution saw an extraordinary increase in
living standards (alongside a huge increase in government debt). But in the
late 1780s, bad weather led to failed harvests and much higher food prices.
Rising expectations could no longer be met. We all know what happened next.

When the money runs out, a rising state, which Smith described as ?cheerful,?
gives way to a declining, ?melancholy? one: promises can no longer be met,
mistrust spreads and markets malfunction. Today, that?s particularly true for
societies where income inequality is high and where the current generation
has, in effect, borrowed from future ones.

In the face of stagnation, reform is essential. The euro zone is unlikely to
survive without the creation of a legitimate fiscal and banking union to
match the growing political union. But even if that happens, Southern
Europe?s sky-high debts will be largely indigestible. Will Angela Merkel?s
Germany accept a one-off debt restructuring that would impose losses on
Northern European creditors and taxpayers but preserve the euro zone? The
alternatives ? disorderly defaults, higher inflation, a breakup of the common
currency, the dismantling of the postwar political project ? seem worse.

In the United States, which ostensibly has the right institutions (if not the
political will) to deal with its economic problems, a potentially explosive
fiscal situation could be resolved through scurrilous means, but only by
threatening global financial and economic instability. Interest rates can be
held lower than the inflation rate, as the Fed has done. Or the government
could devalue the dollar, thereby hitting Asian and Arab creditors. Such
?default by stealth,? however, might threaten a crisis of confidence in the
dollar, wiping away the purchasing-power benefits Americans get from the
dollar?s status as the world?s reserve currency.

Not knowing who, ultimately, will lose as a consequence of our past excesses
helps explain America?s current strife. This is not an argument for immediate
and painful austerity, which isn?t working in Europe. It is, instead, a plea
for economic honesty, to recognize that promises made during good times can
no longer be easily kept.

That means a higher retirement age, more immigration to increase the
working-age population, less borrowing from abroad, less reliance on monetary
policy that creates unsustainable financial bubbles, a new social compact
that doesn?t cannibalize the young to feed the boomers, a tougher stance
toward banks, a further opening of world trade and, over the medium term, a
commitment to sustained deficit reduction.

In his ?Future of an Illusion,? Sigmund Freud argued that the faithful clung
to God?s existence in the absence of evidence because the alternative ? an
empty void ? was so much worse. Modern beliefs about economic prospects are
not so different. Policy makers simply pray for a strong recovery. They opt
for the illusion because the reality is too bleak to bear. But as the current
fiscal crisis demonstrates, facing the pain will not be easy. And the waking
up from our collective illusions has barely begun.

Stephen D. King, chief economist at HSBC, is the author of ?When the Money
Runs Out: The End of Western Affluence.?


From msd001 at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 11:53:59 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 07:53:59 -0400
Subject: [ExI] New way to enumerate prime number
In-Reply-To: <5253C39D.2050508@aleph.se>
References: <CAPiwVB67Bu-J4zs-mMBMKfTjeDisW5JGZ3qcR_hWpMi8mK4woQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJycxeVWrFamOmTS4cYyJ+LsRpOyEoY71ETc=XtuPq=vv3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <5253C39D.2050508@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdb+BXcB79AyK8Wh9eCsRTnkXWGCQg9+QuxYWM2n+mEw0Ag@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 4:34 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2013-10-08 07:18, Giulio Prisco wrote:
>
>> WOW - is this new?
>>
>
> I have never seen it before.
>
> However, I think this is a restatement of the sieve of Eratosthenes:  look
> at the third colum: it is going 0101010, allowing only odd numbers after 2
> to be prime. The fourth goes 0110110110, allowing only numbers not
> divisible by 3. And so on.


Good point.  This graphical process could also model a growth pattern of a
physical system.[1]  Seeing those streams of close-distance "1" makes me
think of networks (or a default topology on which to build a network
according to another iterative process [2])

[1] DNA Origami / DNA Folding
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhGG__boRxU
(I hope every person capable of understanding this video would have already
seen it)

[2] Ophanogenesis chapter of Greg Egan's Diaspora
http://gregegan.customer.netspace.net.au/DIASPORA/01/Orphanogenesis.html


On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 7:41 AM, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> I think there is at least one person on this list with an interest in
>>> primes.  I have never seen anything like this that I know of.
>>>
>>>    http://www.skycoyote.com/**Tableau <http://www.skycoyote.com/Tableau>
>>>
>>>
At least one, but it seems there are more :)  Thanks for posting.
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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Oct  8 12:06:42 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 05:06:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] New way to enumerate prime number
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB67Bu-J4zs-mMBMKfTjeDisW5JGZ3qcR_hWpMi8mK4woQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB67Bu-J4zs-mMBMKfTjeDisW5JGZ3qcR_hWpMi8mK4woQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <007601cec41e$da9f0280$8fdd0780$@att.net>


On Behalf Of Keith Henson
Subject: [ExI] New way to enumerate prime number

>...I think there is at least one person on this list with an interest in
primes.  I have never seen anything like this that I know of.


http://www.skycoyote.com/Tableau


Keith
_______________________________________________


Keith, this is a good graphical way to explain a method Eratosthenes used to
calculate primes.  The method shown on Sky's page can be improved by only
extrapolating forward on those rows which do not have a zero.  Then you are
using only primes rather than all integers to identify composites, so it
eliminates redundancy.

Sky's page got me to thinking about what it must have been like for the
ancient Greeks, when they were discovering all this math for the first time.
Oh my how cool would that be?   They discover all this new stuff and realize
they were the very first humans to have figured it out, the algebra, the
geometry, the primes, all the wicked cool stuff.  They would know that had
others elsewhere discovered it, there would have been consequences that were
not seen, so they could deduce they were the very first humans to see this
stuff.  That must have been a mind blowing awesome time, new math being
discovered every day, chicks in togas all over the place, how cool is that?
Eratosthenes must have been at ground zero for all that.  He is my favorite
ancient Greek.

If we get uploading and it is possible to enter a sim of any historic human,
to experience all the things that person experienced, virtually live in that
historic person's time doing the things that person did, discover the things
that person discovered, feel the things he felt, I know whose life I will
choose to experience:  Hugh Hefner.  But after I live Hugh's life a time or
three, then I would want to live Eratosthenes' life.

spike



From spike66 at att.net  Tue Oct  8 12:47:49 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 05:47:49 -0700
Subject: [ExI] does a us default take down the internet? was: RE: New way to
	enumerate prime number
Message-ID: <008001cec424$98fac0c0$caf04240$@att.net>

... On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Subject: Re: [ExI] New way to enumerate prime number

On 2013-10-08 07:18, Giulio Prisco wrote:
>>... WOW - is this new?

>...However, I think this is a restatement of the sieve of Eratosthenes:  
--
Dr Anders Sandberg
_______________________________________________


It's tough living in California.  You find out everything several hours
later than those living in Europe.  I propose we move the international date
line.  Anders is right on this and got there first.  He probably would have
answered it first in any case for  I already knew that he is a late
up-stayer.  

It used to be a few hours delay didn't mean much, but times have changed.
Now in terms of cool discoveries, hours have become years.  I understand
there is a new undersea cable that will shave a few milliseconds off the
communication latency between Tokyo and London, which the currency traders
need.  With software trading in place, a few milliseconds is the difference
between a few billion dollar payday and bankruptcy.

So all this talk of the US defaulting on its debts raises a question I don't
see being answered anywhere.  If the US government shuts down for real, does
that take down the internet?

spike



From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Oct  8 13:20:01 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 15:20:01 +0200
Subject: [ExI] does a us default take down the internet? was: RE: New
 way to enumerate prime number
In-Reply-To: <008001cec424$98fac0c0$caf04240$@att.net>
References: <008001cec424$98fac0c0$caf04240$@att.net>
Message-ID: <20131008132001.GU10405@leitl.org>

On Tue, Oct 08, 2013 at 05:47:49AM -0700, spike wrote:

> So all this talk of the US defaulting on its debts raises a question I don't
> see being answered anywhere.  If the US government shuts down for real, does
> that take down the internet?

Only an internet. The Internet is a global network of Autonomous Systems
running open protocols, and as such does not have single point of failure
(the current centralized structures are fundamentally circumventable).

You can run a piece of the Internet. At the moment you'll be still
beholden to the cascade of authorities, but with approaches like cjdns
everybody can be a netop in future.


From spike66 at att.net  Tue Oct  8 13:32:50 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 06:32:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] does a us default take down the internet? was: RE: New
	way to enumerate prime number
In-Reply-To: <20131008132001.GU10405@leitl.org>
References: <008001cec424$98fac0c0$caf04240$@att.net>
 <20131008132001.GU10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <009601cec42a$e3247190$a96d54b0$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
Subject: Re: [ExI] does a us default take down the internet? was: RE: New
way to enumerate prime number

On Tue, Oct 08, 2013 at 05:47:49AM -0700, spike wrote:

>>... So all this talk of the US defaulting on its debts raises a question I

> don't see being answered anywhere.  If the US government shuts down 
> for real, does that take down the internet?

>...Only an internet. The Internet is a global network of Autonomous Systems
running open protocols, and as such does not have single point of failure
(the current centralized structures are fundamentally circumventable).

>...You can run a piece of the Internet. At the moment you'll be still
beholden to the cascade of authorities, but with approaches like cjdns
everybody can be a netop in future.
_______________________________________________

Excellent thanks.  Sounds like the early internet designers thought of this
and made arrangements ahead of time.  

For those following the US government threatened shutdown, I don't
understand why no one proposes the most obvious solutions.  Clearly we have
far too many government workers and they are paid too much, with too little
to do, so they occupy their time reading our email.  So start with an across
the board 10% pay cut for all federal employees, then some of them get
pissed off and leave, so you have fewer of them, so the expenses go down
twice.  In return, the budget hawks let them borrow another trillion
dollars.  They use up that in less than a year.  Repeat the process as soon
as the newly borrowed money, as often as necessary until income matches
outgo.  

Why is that so difficult?

spike



From rahmans at me.com  Tue Oct  8 14:32:50 2013
From: rahmans at me.com (Omar Rahman)
Date: Tue, 08 Oct 2013 16:32:50 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <mailman.41.1381233248.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.41.1381233248.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <24B7EFB7-3E41-4C1F-B12D-5BC8AD5A6B4A@me.com>



> 
>> ... On Behalf Of Rafal Smigrodzki
> 
> ### For something written by somebody with a brain, see here:
> 
> http://www.gosanangelo.com/news/2013/oct/06/thomas-sowell-who-shut-down-the-
> federal/
> 
> 
> 
> Rafal_______________________________________________
> 
> 
> Thanks Rafal, that is an excellent article.  They told us all these dire
> consequences that would result from a government shutdown, but it was all
> exaggerated.  Now the government is afraid no one will notice they shut
> down.  So they go out of their way to be as annoying as possible:
> 
> http://legalinsurrection.com/2013/10/now-govt-trying-to-block-people-from-lo
> oking-at-mt-rushmore-seriously/
> 
> If they really wanted to scare the bejeebers out of the proletariat with
> something real, they should threaten to shut down the internet.  That would
> stir even MY jaded libertarian soul.
> 
> Sowell made the case as clear as anyone has to date.  The answer he left out
> is one I have been wondering all this time: if ObamaCare is to be
> revenue-neutral as we were told, why does it need all this funding the House
> of Representatives refuses to give?  Can't they just go ahead without
> pumping money into it?  Why not?  If they did that, who wouldn't get paid,
> and why do we need them anyway?  The law says you buy insurance, you go to
> the doctor, the insurance company pays.  Where is all this government
> funding needed for doing that?  Can't they just do the parts of it that
> don't cost the government anything?
> 
> spike

Rafa?,

For something written by someone with a sense of humor please check out John Stewart or Stephen Colbert.

For the more serious points raised by Thomas Sowell, in his article he suggested people check out "legislation by appropriation". I did so. A quick Wikipedia check led to the informations that all these:

Annual appropriations are divided into 12 separate pieces of legislation:
Agriculture,
Commerce, Justice, and Science,
Defense,
Energy and Water,
Financial Services,
Homeland Security,
Interior and Environment,
Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education,
Legislative,
Military and Veterans,
State and Foreign Operations,
Transportation and Housing and Urban Development.

These are funded by by appropriations that could be blocked by a slim majority of refuseniks or potentially by a simple filibuster in the senate.

The American system of government is based on a system of "checks and balances". The President and the Senate have made it clear that they do not accept this "legislation by appropriation" and insist that "Obamacare" be funded. The Supreme Court has upheld it's constitutionality. That's 2.5 branches of government in favor of "Obamacare" vs. 0.5 branches against. Time to check your balance I'd say. 

Mr. Sowell may be right that "legislation by appropriation" isn't new, but he is wrong to imply that this is a sensible way to govern. All we have to do to prove this is imagine what chaos would occur if Congress were to take aim at the laundry list above 'unless' they get x, y, or z.

And to Spike,

The Government is running the exchanges and regulating the market: these activities cost money and do not raise money. The legislation is supposed to be cost neutral to the public as an aggregate. (Hopefully cost beneficial if this experiment in mixing free markets and universal coverage works out.) Perhaps you are proposing the introduction of fees into the markets so that it would be self-supporting, yes Spike? ;)

As for the seriousness of the situation, the whole laundry list of things given above are funded by appropriations and will run out of money in a short time. If you notice item 5 on the list, financial services, which would cover little things like paying the interest on the debt I think. So even if we do have revenue coming in which exceeds our interest payments we have no legal way to pay it without an (You know what's coming don't you?) appropriations bill.

I've lived all my life in countries with universal health care, Canada and Poland, except for 2 years in the US where I wasn't covered. Thankfully I didn't get seriously ill in the US. Personally I like knowing that I'm "covered". It builds trust in society and makes us richer 'as a nation'.

Regards,

Omar

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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Oct  8 15:48:47 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 08:48:47 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <24B7EFB7-3E41-4C1F-B12D-5BC8AD5A6B4A@me.com>
References: <mailman.41.1381233248.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <24B7EFB7-3E41-4C1F-B12D-5BC8AD5A6B4A@me.com>
Message-ID: <00e501cec43d$e0f736b0$a2e5a410$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Omar Rahman
>?

>?Annual appropriations are divided into 12 separate pieces of legislation:

 

Cool thanks Omar.  Let us look at these please.

1.     Agriculture?

OK agriculture.  Why do we need government to be involved in that?  Why?  In the old days we set up subsidies for farmers to not grow stuff.  It was a means of price support, which we no longer need, given international markets.  We had the notion of subsidizing excess food production in case a world war suddenly takes huge numbers of people away from normal food production.  That paradigm is ever more outdated as fewer and fewer people are needed for both agriculture and military: both tasks are mostly done by machines now.  Does anyone think we face a world war 2 style conflict in which millions of guys face each other at short range with rifles?  Nah.  Get rid of the Department of Agriculture.

2.     Commerce,

Why do we need a department of commerce?  Let states regulate commerce.  I don?t see anything in the constitution which justifies having that department.

Justice

Justice is a good thing.  Keep it unchanged.

, and Science,

Science is a good thing.  Freeze or reduce pay slightly.  They will not leave.  There are fewer attractive options for scientists now than there once was.

3.     Defense?

This can be greatly reduced.  With a military the size of the ours, it is too tempting for a US president to use it, even when the consequences would likely be catastrophic.  Examples, Iraq, Afghanistan, and narrowly averted recent use in Syria.  Keeping an enormous military force has been nothing but trouble for the US for a couple decades: everyone expects us to use it to help them.  They fooled us into going into Iraq, then very nearly fooled us into going into Syria, all because we have this absurdly oversized military.  Reduce it.

4.     Energy

Why do we need government involved in that?  Let energy companies run energy policy, and let them compete.  Hell they could raise their own mercenary armies to defend far-flung oil fields and supply lines, hiring the locals to do the defending.  If the result is the cost of oil rose to what it really costs to get the stuff out of the ground and delivered safely, well so be it.  We pay for it anyway.  Then we wouldn?t need government subsidies on domestic alternatives: they would become cost effective even sooner with cost savings all around.

and Water,

Water is a good thing.  Leave as is.

5.     Financial Services,

I do see that we need to make interest payments, in full, on time.  Much of that goes to foreign bond holders.  If we default on that and they stop loaning, evolution help us.  Leave as is.  Note that if the borrowing limit is hit, the government still has income: people still pay taxes.  This revenue can cover interest payments with change left over to actually run the government.

Regarding foreign investors, I do wonder what this must look like to them.  We have admitted we cannot operate on the taxes we collect, we cannot live the life to which we are fondly accustomed on the money we make.  So now we depend on foreign investors to loan us money to pay them the interest we owe them?  And we are debating whether we will allow ourselves to borrow more?  And still they lend?  Why?  What am I missing here?

6.     Homeland Security

Reduce it.  We went all those years without it, we can slim down on it now.

7.     Interior and Environment,

Reduce it some.  The big battles are long behind us now.  Notice how clean the air has become just in our lifetimes.  I do congratulate those who fought and won those struggles.  It worked.  The air is clean now.  Reducing the EPA will not suddenly cause car companies to stop using catalytic converters, and besides, both those tasks could be done on a state level.

8.     Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education,

All four of those could and probably should be done on a state level.

9.     Legislative,

So we have seen.

10. Military and Veterans,

Veterans no change.  Military: size reduction.  We won the wars, now we should offer every enlisted an option to bail with an honorable discharge, no questions asked.  Ossifers get a 10% reduction in pay, other benefits unchanged.  Most will not leave.

11. State and Foreign Operations,

No comment.

12. Transportation and Housing and Urban Development.

Transportation: the big costs are behind us now that the interstate highway system is complete.  Don?t build more of them.  Housing and Urban Development: do that on a state level.  I see no reason why the fed should be involved in housing at all.

 

>?These are funded by by appropriations that could be blocked by a slim majority of refuseniks?

 

But recall that ObamaCare was passed without senate debate because one party had a temporary supermajority, which is 60 out of 100 seats.  With that, they could force a vote on a bill which was never debated on the senate floor, since it only required a senate simple majority to pass.

 

>? or potentially by a simple filibuster in the senate?

 

Indeed.  Back when ObamaCare was crafted, any actual debate of the substance of the bill was called a filibuster.  How strange is this, when actual debate about the content of a bill being crafted in private is called a filibuster.  The contents of the bill created in private was not on the public record.  So now we have an absurdity: nearly all the commentary in the historic record of the US senate with regard to ObamaCare was read into the record by Tea Party guy Ted Cruz.  Historians will find this most amusing: the US passed the biggest change in the structure of government without public debate.  This led to such howlers as the speaker of the house commenting that we need to hurry and pass this bill so we can find out what is in it.  Cannot they see this would lead to all manner of mischief?  Once we pass it and find out what is in it, that no one likes it, for instance, or that it is unworkable.  We find out that the whole scheme really depends on young and healthy people buying overpriced health insurance.  If they don?t come, the scheme doesn?t work.  They aren?t coming.

 

>?The American system of government is based on a system of "checks and balances"?

 

Ja, and that system is defeated if one party holds all three seats of power and a supermajority in the senate, as we saw.  The government was given unlimited power.  They immediately abused it.

 

>? The President and the Senate have made it clear that they do not accept this "legislation by appropriation" and insist that "Obamacare" be funded. The Supreme Court has upheld it's constitutionality. That's 2.5 branches of government in favor of "Obamacare" vs. 0.5 branches against. Time to check your balance I'd say?

 

Sure.  Now what happens when we check our balance, it is zero, so we need yet another increase in debt limit?  We set a precedent that the government cannot stop borrowing, that it must borrow just to pay ordinary operating expenses.  Then the check on our balance must come from our creditors.  We will not like the way China runs this place.

 

 

>?Mr. Sowell may be right that "legislation by appropriation" isn't new, but he is wrong to imply that this is a sensible way to govern?

 

We must check our spending, or China will do it for us.  We will not like it.

 

>?And to Spike,

 

>?The Government is running the exchanges and regulating the market: these activities cost money and do not raise money?

 

Easy solution: let the insurance companies run the exchanges, leave the market regulation to the states.  Open it up so that anyone can buy insurance from any state.  That creates fifty competing markets, regulated by competition among states.

 

>? The legislation is supposed to be cost neutral to the public as an aggregate. (Hopefully cost beneficial if this experiment in mixing free markets and universal coverage works out.) Perhaps you are proposing the introduction of fees into the markets so that it would be self-supporting, yes Spike? ;)

 

Thanks for that clarification.  If the whole notion relies on young and healthy people picking up the bills for the old and sick, this whole scheme will fail.  Here?s how you will know: count the number of people who are young and healthy who opt to buy into the exchanges rather than pay the tax.  Notice no one will tell us how many are doing it.  I suspect it is few, and I don?t blame them: health insurance for a young healthy person is a bad deal, even after the tax penalty is taken into account.

 

>? So even if we do have revenue coming in which exceeds our interest payments we have no legal way to pay it without an (You know what's coming don't you?) appropriations bill?

 

I disagree with this.  The government can still issue checks to bond holders on executive order to the federal reserve.  This may be demonstrated in 9 days.  Good chance what might happen is the house would pass a midnight bill authorizing it on the 17th.

 

>?I've lived all my life in countries with universal health care, Canada and Poland, except for 2 years in the US where I wasn't covered. Thankfully I didn't get seriously ill in the US. Personally I like knowing that I'm "covered"?

 

You were always free to buy health insurance or pay for it out of your personal funds, even in the US.  I have heard this so often from people who came to the US from Europe especially.  I recommend if you want to be in the US and not buy health insurance, that you keep your citizenship, or maintain dual citizenship.  Then if you get sick, head on back to the homeland for treatment.  Otherwise just buy health insurance: it has always been there.  Ja it is expensive, but the way we do healthcare in the US is expensive: we charge those who have insurance more to cover the bills of those who do not.  That is what caused this whole mess to start with.

 

>? It builds trust in society?

 

Indeed sir.  ObamaCare has created more distrust in society than I have seen in my lifetime.  I predict catastrophic failure of the whole venture.

 

>? and makes us richer ?as a nation?. Regards, Omar

 

Ja, what happens if we build it, but the young and healthies do not come?  Where are we then as a nation?  We mostly took apart a system which kinda worked, Medicare, defunded that and substituted one which looks like a failure right out of the starting gate.  I will change my mind as soon as I see jillions of healthy young people flocking into the exchanges and actually buying the insurance.  Right now the system is crashing under the load of millions of old and sick people struggling to opt in, and millions of healthy shoppers who see the price tag and decide to opt out.  Omar, I admire your idealism, but I think this scheme will fail spectacularly.

 

spike

 

 

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From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 16:33:28 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 09:33:28 -0700
Subject: [ExI] does a us default take down the internet? was: RE: New
 way to enumerate prime number
In-Reply-To: <009601cec42a$e3247190$a96d54b0$@att.net>
References: <008001cec424$98fac0c0$caf04240$@att.net>
 <20131008132001.GU10405@leitl.org>
 <009601cec42a$e3247190$a96d54b0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNR9HRgqp+Kw1Vwtnan+Z_nQUAGjvEiZ881b9MMDR1Webg@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 6:32 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Excellent thanks.  Sounds like the early internet designers thought of this
> and made arrangements ahead of time.
>

They thought of nuclear war, wherein the US government might be physically
unable - not just unwilling - to perform its duties.


> For those following the US government threatened shutdown, I don't
> understand why no one proposes the most obvious solutions.  Clearly we have
> far too many government workers and they are paid too much, with too little
> to do, so they occupy their time reading our email.  So start with an
> across
> the board 10% pay cut for all federal employees, then some of them get
> pissed off and leave, so you have fewer of them, so the expenses go down
> twice.


Employees aren't the primary expense.  Besides, many of them are unionized
and under contract; it would be flat-out illegal for the government to do
what you say, not to mention it would get many of those in Congress, who
have been bystanders as the two sides "negotiate", thrown out of office.

The easiest solution to getting the budget down is to withdraw our troops
from the Middle East immediately, and otherwise cease military expenditures
over there.  (And don't start new ones - e.g., maybe sell arms to the
rebels in Syria, but don't send "advisors" who we'd have to protect.)  That
would have consequences, though.
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue Oct  8 17:41:20 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 13:41:20 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wXpnZhJ9cvLc6WiBvz6Up4CPLy64tOzS2ct7H5wDnWuYw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519DD7.1040406@aleph.se> <20131007054339.GR10405@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv3JNHooCWT4+Hw+CQoRC_h6ZFUg1_vWF-Z3=t4kXca1Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <52530E94.8080505@aleph.se>
 <CAJX-7wXpnZhJ9cvLc6WiBvz6Up4CPLy64tOzS2ct7H5wDnWuYw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0BRvfVt5NSwf-YcWyxQqepP7+qkFeGZGwt2gpAwnYMAQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 5:34 PM, Max More <max at maxmore.com> wrote:

> Someone mentioned a Cryonics magazine article on plastic embedding vs
> cryopreservation. You can find the article here:
>
> http://www.alcor.org/magazine/2013/01/16/chemical-brain-preservation-and-human-suspended-animation/
>

Thanks Max, I'll have more comments about that article in a few days but
first a quick question, Mr. Wolf keeps saying things like:

 > In neural cryobiology, on the other hand, it is possible to subject the
> cryopreserved brain tissue to both a viability test and (subsequently) to
> ultrastructural examination.
>

What is he talking about?  Today with the absence of advanced
Nanotechnology how can you give a viability test to a block of tissue
frozen harder than a brick?

  John K Clark
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From bbenzai at yahoo.com  Tue Oct  8 18:41:31 2013
From: bbenzai at yahoo.com (Ben Zaiboc)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 11:41:31 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: [ExI] Human Brain Project kicks off today
In-Reply-To: <mailman.36.1381185417.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.36.1381185417.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <1381257691.49527.YahooMailNeo@web165003.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>

Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> quoted:


> What if you could build a computer that works just like the human brain?
> 
...
> There's just one catch: computers that fast simply haven't been invented yet.


Hilariously ironic, as the biological version can't transmit signals faster than the speed of sound!

It's almost as if someone is taking the beer-cans-and-string argument too far.? Sure, a brain could be built out of beer cans and string.? In principle.? Unfortunately, we don't yet have enough string...

I suspect Maslow's Hammer is at work here.?? Minds and classical digital computers may be a poor match.




From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Oct  8 19:15:49 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2013 21:15:49 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Human Brain Project kicks off today
In-Reply-To: <1381257691.49527.YahooMailNeo@web165003.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
References: <mailman.36.1381185417.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <1381257691.49527.YahooMailNeo@web165003.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <20131008191549.GE10405@leitl.org>

On Tue, Oct 08, 2013 at 11:41:31AM -0700, Ben Zaiboc wrote:
> Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> quoted:
> 
> 
> > What if you could build a computer that works just like the human brain?
> > 
> ...
> > There's just one catch: computers that fast simply haven't been invented yet.
> 
> 
> Hilariously ironic, as the biological version can't transmit signals faster than the speed of sound!

We have hybrid systems which can render about a day's worth of dynamics 
in a second. But they're not all-purpose, so you need exascale systems to
figure out how to build dedicated hardware, which can't be modifed after
the fact, only adjusted in some operational parameters.
 
> It's almost as if someone is taking the beer-cans-and-string argument too far.? Sure, a brain could be built out of beer cans and string.? In principle.? Unfortunately, we don't yet have enough string...
> 
> I suspect Maslow's Hammer is at work here.?? Minds and classical digital computers may be a poor match.

Bootstrap stages are sacrificial/discardable, just as in compiler bootstrap.


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 04:45:37 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 00:45:37 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <24B7EFB7-3E41-4C1F-B12D-5BC8AD5A6B4A@me.com>
References: <mailman.41.1381233248.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <24B7EFB7-3E41-4C1F-B12D-5BC8AD5A6B4A@me.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFjybYHLpvWxKXNqxj9F2BYci6XnB4X9p4yO4V0_mwumCg@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 10:32 AM, Omar Rahman <rahmans at me.com> wrote:

>
> For something written by someone with a sense of humor please check out John
> Stewart or Stephen Colbert.

### I abstain from listening to CC. Their humor is too often of the
servile kind, laughing with the master, not at him.

-----------------
>
> The American system of government is based on a system of "checks and
> balances". The President and the Senate have made it clear that they do not
> accept this "legislation by appropriation" and insist that "Obamacare" be
> funded. The Supreme Court has upheld it's constitutionality. That's 2.5
> branches of government in favor of "Obamacare" vs. 0.5 branches against.
> Time to check your balance I'd say.

### To go back to the initial contention: Congress gave the president
about 99% of the money he needs to run the government. The president
refused to run the government, and shut it down. He could have taken
the money and done his job but refused to.

Do you agree that the president shut down the government?

------------------
>
> Mr. Sowell may be right that "legislation by appropriation" isn't new, but
> he is wrong to imply that this is a sensible way to govern. All we have to
> do to prove this is imagine what chaos would occur if Congress were to take
> aim at the laundry list above 'unless' they get x, y, or z.

### Yes, let's imagine: Maybe, if there was a balance between drunken
sailors and accountants, we would not have about 250 - 300 trillion
dollars in unfunded government liabilities. Maybe, if the doves could
keep the hawks in check, our nation would not have the blood of
millions of brown people on our hands. Perhaps a few refuseniks could
say no to the fifth estate (the permanent government,) and the Federal
Register would be 700 pages, instead of 79,000 pages long.

Would that be chaos? Dunno. But, to quote Mr Obama, "and make no
mistake about it" - chaos is now, and it is the result of our
"sensible" way of governing.

Rafal


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 04:57:26 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 00:57:26 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Human Brain Project kicks off today
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFigy=5eQK5bCe+z4vj2o3BuYr3TdX58NAvcOa8UsN_8Tg@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 3:15 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> Bootstrap stages are sacrificial/discardable, just as in compiler bootstrap.

### Ah, I am getting it now: Initial uploading/human-level AI stages
are general purpose hardware with very bloaty software, with gigantic
inefficiencies but then with enough specific knowledge you can build
specialized hardware running highly optimized code. Makes sense.

How many Eugens could you fit in the head of a pin (make it a sphere
3/16 inch diameter)?

Rafal


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 05:04:49 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 01:04:49 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv0BRvfVt5NSwf-YcWyxQqepP7+qkFeGZGwt2gpAwnYMAQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519DD7.1040406@aleph.se> <20131007054339.GR10405@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv3JNHooCWT4+Hw+CQoRC_h6ZFUg1_vWF-Z3=t4kXca1Eg@mail.gmail.com>
 <52530E94.8080505@aleph.se>
 <CAJX-7wXpnZhJ9cvLc6WiBvz6Up4CPLy64tOzS2ct7H5wDnWuYw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv0BRvfVt5NSwf-YcWyxQqepP7+qkFeGZGwt2gpAwnYMAQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFgAthATgWtmZ_GnB2izAwgaO+KXsA0_n_YDzT+g_mnpew@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 1:41 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> Thanks Max, I'll have more comments about that article in a few days but
> first a quick question, Mr. Wolf keeps saying things like:
>
>>  > In neural cryobiology, on the other hand, it is possible to subject the
>> cryopreserved brain tissue to both a viability test and (subsequently) to
>> ultrastructural examination.
>
>
> What is he talking about?  Today with the absence of advanced Nanotechnology
> how can you give a viability test to a block of tissue frozen harder than a
> brick?
>
### You can thaw a piece and try to record electric activity,
dissociate the tissue and try to culture surviving cells, look for
evidence of metabolism (oxygen, glucose consumption, carbon dioxide
production). This list is roughly in the diminishing order of
viability.

Rafal


From ALONZOTG at verizon.net  Wed Oct  9 04:57:15 2013
From: ALONZOTG at verizon.net (Alan Grimes)
Date: Wed, 09 Oct 2013 00:57:15 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Meditations on the million year mind.
Message-ID: <5254E22B.9000508@verizon.net>

om

Tonite I feel like mumbling incoherently about how you would go about 
engineering a mind to last a million years. The problem is much less 
trivial than it would first appear because the main issue is to maintain 
a youthful learning capacity even when memories spanning thousands of 
years are already stored. Other aspects of cognitive performance must 
not degrade eather. Any non-zero rate of degradation will turn out fatal 
over protracted time. This posting will make some brief comments about 
the physical requirements of such a mind but mainly focus on the 
architecture of the mind itself. Some consideration will also be made 
with regards to changing workloads and the inherent need to move beyond 
the baseline in terms of capacity and capabilities.

om

A cursory glance at the world will inform you that minds exist, 
primarily, in order to solve the problems of maintaining and operating 
their embodyment. These problems are protection, maintainance, and 
socialization. Additionally, if the embodyment is mobile, then it also 
involves navigation. Virtual 'embodyment' is frequently proposed so 
therefore I will address it. While there is certainly some value in 
being able to use a VR environment, it cannot serve as a primary 
environment because there will always be a physical substrate and 
because. By definition, any action in VR is utterly inconsequential on 
the physical layer and is therefore completely uninteresting. 
Furthermore, a VR intended to preserve a mind over long periods of time 
is, by definition, hell because it would cantinually have to force the 
mind to solve somewhat difficult but completely contrived problems just 
to provide the stimulation required to keep a mind in working order.

Regardless of what you wish to deem the embodyment to be, the mind will 
exist within a physical substrate. If there is one true thing about the 
universe it is that it loves to kick the shit out of substrates. Any 
feeling of safety you might have is both temporary and illusory. So you 
will need to engineer a countermeasure for every conceivable scenario 
that might damage your brain. But more importantly, you need a way to 
service and repair it to factory spec. So therefore it will not be a 
solid block of computronium, A more plausible configuration is .1 mm 
cubes of computronium packed in a classical organic phospholipid 
membrane or in a more trendy nanosystem. In any event it must be sturdy 
enough to do anything from play football to get mildly zapped by the B+ 
on a classic tube amplifier.

While the substrate is much fetishized, in the bigger picture it is 
profoundly irrelevant. The real issue is how the brain actually works. 
In the crudest sense, the brain works kind of like a flash memory. 
Because synapses can't form in specific locations, they must form in a 
shotgun fashion and then get pruned back. Similarly, a flash memory uses 
electrical currents to reset a bank of fuses and then selectively blows 
the fuses to write information. To erase information, the entire bank 
must be cleared. So as you are learning, you are progressively loosing 
synapses, as they are pruned back. There are some exceptions to this but 
that is the basic process.

Inevitably, however, the brain exhausts it's plasticity and simply 
cannot form new memories. Any approach you would use to grow new 
synapses, or add additional cortical columns will have the effect of 
erasing existing memories, or, if you must, the existing personality.

So therefore we need to go back to the drawing board and come up with a 
new system for thinking that can be expanded or re-configured as needed 
without unobtanium. Reconfigurability is important because there are any 
number of reasons you might alter your embodyment and your mind must be 
able to adapt as well. While we are at it, there are several crucial 
areas of performance that should also be addressed. These include the 
ability to deal with many tasks concurrently, as well as the depth and 
breadth of knowledge that can be brought to bear on any given problem, 
not to mention the capacity for higher-dimensional thinking, a deeper 
short-term memory stack, etc...

The first thing that needs to happen is the abstraction from the unit of 
data from the unit of computation. Doing this will open up the whole 
universe of data manipulation techniques. The current cortical column is 
both data and processor approach might be fast but it is not flexible or 
scalable.

What we find in the brain is a network of interconnected sub-modules, 
each with a relatively discreet function. A brain of the type I propose 
would start out with a hanful of functional modules dictated by the 
embodyment and what is essential to create a functioning mind. The rest 
would be created dynamically and without limit. The learning rate could 
be extrordinary by human standards and, on account of the ability to 
create new modules to process new ideas, could *OUT CLASS* any previous 
human genius (or upload thereof).

Because the system would be based on database theory, the amount of 
information could grow to the limits of the hardware, instead of being 
bounded by the limitations of the original equipment due to emulation, 
and because the original brain lacks capacity for expansion.

The next problem, is how to take advantage of such a system personally. 
The unchallenged standard proposal is to scan the existing brain 
(subsequent to sacrificing the patient in an occultic ritual involving 
removing the patient's heart and showing it to him while it's still 
beating; yes it's that primitive!).  But the prospects of extracting 
anything useful much less extracting the data from the processors in 
that secenario is extremely dubious. Actually, that's much too polite: 
It ain't going to happen. You just aren't going to extract enough 
information to dump it into the new mind architecture and have anything 
even remotely like the original.

Now, what Just Might Work (tm) is mind coalescence. You use a BCI to 
mind-meld with the new platform. The new platform will acquire your 
knowledge not by trying to un-tangle your rat's nest of dendrites but, 
*ghasp*, *shudder*, etc etc, by communicating with the living system. 
The next step would involve stimulating each cortical column to 
play-back all of it's information which can be remembered by the new 
system.

The ultimate question is whether the universe will allow you to choose 
your point of view. This is the most profoundly non-trivial question 
there is. Unfortunately, only experimentation will even begin to shed 
light on it. =\  Will your original mind ever become "spare" and 
disposable to your new mind? In any event, the best result will almost 
certainly be obtained by operating both minds in their joined state for 
as long as your original brain can be maintaned. Therefore it is urgent 
to construct the new mind at the earliest possible date, preferably ten 
years ago when I came up with this idea. =P

I was working on a story involving it, but then my DOS partition got 
wiped out so I had to manually hunt down fragments of the manuscript 
with a disk editor and re-construct the thing... FUN. Wanna read it? 
(350k file).

So, you can either spend the rest of your lives debating whether 
cryonics is better than plastination, and then, uppon your death, 
someone else decides to creamate you... Or you could develop AI, neural 
interfaces, and mind coalescence now and start the journy toward your 
first-millionth birthday... The choice is yours, punks!

-- 
NOTICE: NEW E-MAIL ADDRESS, SEE ABOVE

Powers are not rights.



From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Oct  9 06:48:16 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 08:48:16 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Human Brain Project kicks off today
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFigy=5eQK5bCe+z4vj2o3BuYr3TdX58NAvcOa8UsN_8Tg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFigy=5eQK5bCe+z4vj2o3BuYr3TdX58NAvcOa8UsN_8Tg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131009064816.GG10405@leitl.org>

On Wed, Oct 09, 2013 at 12:57:26AM -0400, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 3:15 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> 
> > Bootstrap stages are sacrificial/discardable, just as in compiler bootstrap.
> 
> ### Ah, I am getting it now: Initial uploading/human-level AI stages
> are general purpose hardware with very bloaty software, with gigantic
> inefficiencies but then with enough specific knowledge you can build
> specialized hardware running highly optimized code. Makes sense.

Yes. See http://www.stanford.edu/group/brainsinsilicon/challenge.html
http://www.stanford.edu/group/brainsinsilicon/neurogrid.html
http://www.stanford.edu/group/brainsinsilicon/goals.html
for early work in that area. It pretty much mimicks what the
brain does, the spike shape itself encodes no information,
and the long-distance fiber structure is pretty much like
a modern supercomputer N-dimensional torus fabric, routing
packets.
 
> How many Eugens could you fit in the head of a pin (make it a sphere
> 3/16 inch diameter)?

Less than it might appear. It takes minimum nm^3 to encode one
bit in 3D solid state, so um^3 buys you 10^9, mm^3 10^18, cm^3 10^21 
bits. The actual volume is anywhere in 100 cm^3 to 1 cm^3 range.
Human brain minus water is some 300 cm^3, plus a fraction is
that for metabolism/maintenance, so the 100-1 cm^3 figure 
appears reasonable.


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 07:11:19 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 01:11:19 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <00e501cec43d$e0f736b0$a2e5a410$@att.net>
References: <mailman.41.1381233248.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <24B7EFB7-3E41-4C1F-B12D-5BC8AD5A6B4A@me.com>
 <00e501cec43d$e0f736b0$a2e5a410$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAPy8Rwbi2RF4rAVsn7hiK0rgUHYnr3aP6S35ZYxG3Qz6YvuWsg@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 9:48 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Indeed sir.  ObamaCare has created more distrust in society than I have
> seen in my lifetime.  I predict catastrophic failure of the whole venture.
>

I'll second that. However, it will take a long time for the Democrats to
acknowledge it as a failure. They still haven't acknowledged their past
failures in similar redistribution of wealth schemes. In fact, they point
at these failures as their greatest successes. It boggles the mind.

-Kelly
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From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Oct  9 09:20:50 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 11:20:50 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Gartner's 2013 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Maps Out
 Evolving Relationship Between Humans and Machines
Message-ID: <20131009092050.GP10405@leitl.org>


https://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2575515

STAMFORD, Conn., August 19, 2013 View All Press Releases

Gartner's 2013 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Maps Out Evolving
Relationship Between Humans and Machines

2013 Hype Cycle Special Report Evaluates the Maturity of More Than 1,900
Technologies

Gartner to Host Complimentary Webinar "Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle for
2013: Redefining the Relationship," August 21 at 10 a.m. EDT and 1 p.m. EDT

The evolving relationship between humans and machines is the key theme of
Gartner, Inc.'s "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2013." Gartner has
chosen to feature the relationship between humans and machines due to the
increased hype around smart machines, cognitive computing and the Internet of
Things. Analysts believe that the relationship is being redefined through
emerging technologies, narrowing the divide between humans and machines. 

Gartner's 2013 Hype Cycle Special Report provides strategists and planners
with an assessment of the maturity, business benefit and future direction of
more than 2,000 technologies, grouped into 98 areas. New Hype Cycles this
year include content and social analytics, embedded software and systems,
consumer market research, open banking, banking operations innovation, and
information and communication technology (ICT) in Africa.

The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies report is the longest-running annual
Hype Cycle, providing a cross-industry perspective on the technologies and
trends that senior executives, CIOs, strategists, innovators, business
developers and technology planners should consider in developing
emerging-technology portfolios. 

"It is the broadest aggregate Gartner Hype Cycle, featuring technologies that
are the focus of attention because of particularly high levels of hype, or
those that Gartner believes have the potential for significant impact," said
Jackie Fenn, vice president and Gartner fellow. 

"In making the overriding theme of this year's Hype Cycle the evolving
relationship between humans and machines, we encourage enterprises to look
beyond the narrow perspective that only sees a future in which machines and
computers replace humans. In fact, by observing how emerging technologies are
being used by early adopters, there are actually three main trends at work.
These are augmenting humans with technology ? for example, an employee with a
wearable computing device; machines replacing humans ? for example, a
cognitive virtual assistant acting as an automated customer representative;
and humans and machines working alongside each other ? for example, a mobile
robot working with a warehouse employee to move many boxes." 

"Enterprises of the future will use a combination of these three trends to
improve productivity, transform citizen and customer experience, and to seek
competitive advantage," said Hung LeHong, research vice president at Gartner.
"These three major trends are made possible by three areas that facilitate
and support the relationship between human and machine. Machines are becoming
better at understanding humans and the environment ? for example, recognizing
the emotion in a person's voice ? and humans are becoming better at
understanding machines ? for example, through the Internet of things. At the
same time, machines and humans are getting smarter by working together."

Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2013 

Gartner Hype Cycles 2013

Source: Gartner August 2013

The 2013 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle highlights technologies that
support all six of these areas including:

1. Augmenting humans with technology

Technologies make it possible to augment human performance in physical,
emotional and cognitive areas. The main benefit to enterprises in augmenting
humans with technology is to create a more capable workforce. For example,
consider if all employees had access to wearable technology that could answer
any product or service question or pull up any enterprise data at will. The
ability to improve productivity, sell better or serve customer better will
increase significantly. Enterprises interested in these technologies should
look to bioacoustic sensing, quantified self, 3D bioprinting, brain-computer
interface, human augmentation, speech-to-speech translation, neurobusiness,
wearable user interfaces, augmented reality and gesture control. 

2. Machines replacing humans

There are clear opportunities for machines to replace humans: dangerous work,
simpler yet expensive-to-perform tasks and repetitive tasks. The main benefit
to having machines replace humans is improved productivity, less danger to
humans and sometimes better quality work or responses. For example, a highly
capable virtual customer service agent could field the many straightforward
questions from customers and replace much of the customer service agents'
"volume" work ? with the most up-to-date information. Enterprises should look
to some of these representative technologies for sources of innovation on how
machines can take over human tasks: volumetric and holographic displays,
autonomous vehicles, mobile robots and virtual assistants. 

3. Humans and machines working alongside each other

Humans versus machines is not a binary decision, there are times when
machines working alongside humans is a better choice. A new generation of
robots is being built to work alongside humans. IBM's Watson does background
research for doctors, just like a research assistant, to ensure they account
for all the latest clinical, research and other information when making
diagnoses or suggesting treatments. The main benefits of having machines
working alongside humans are the ability to access the best of both worlds
(that is, productivity and speed from machines, emotional intelligence and
the ability to handle the unknown from humans). Technologies that represent
and support this trend include autonomous vehicles, mobile robots, natural
language question and answering, and virtual assistants. 

The three trends that will change the workforce and the everyday lives of
humans in the future are enabled by a set of technologies that help both
machine and humans better understand each other. The following three areas
are a necessary foundation for the synergistic relationships to evolve
between humans and machines: 

4. Machines better understanding humans and the environment

Machines and systems can only benefit from a better understanding of human
context, humans and human emotion. This understanding leads to simple
context-aware interactions, such as displaying an operational report for the
location closest to the user; to better understanding customers, such as
gauging consumer sentiment for a new product line by analyzing Facebook
postings; to complex dialoguing with customers, such as virtual assistants
using natural language question and answering to interact on customer
inquiries. The technologies on this year's Hype Cycle that represent these
capabilities include bioacoustic sensing, smart dust, quantified self, brain
computer interface, affective computing, biochips, 3D scanners,
natural-language question and answering (NLQA), content analytics, mobile
health monitoring, gesture control, activity streams, biometric
authentication methods, location intelligence and speech recognition.

5. Humans better understanding machines

As machines get smarter and start automating more human tasks, humans will
need to trust the machines and feel safe. The technologies that make up the
Internet of things will provide increased visibility into how machines are
operating and the environmental situation they are operating in. For example,
IBM's Watson provides "confidence" scores for the answers it provides to
humans while Baxter shows a confused facial expression on its screen when it
does not know what to do. MIT has also been working on Kismet, a robot that
senses social cues from visual and auditory sensors, and responds with facial
expressions that demonstrate understanding. These types of technology are
very important in allowing humans and machines to work together. The 2013
Hype Cycle features Internet of Things, machine-to-machine communication
services, mesh networks: sensor and activity streams.

6. Machines and humans becoming smarter

The surge in big data, analytics and cognitive computing approaches will
provide decision support and automation to humans, and awareness and
intelligence to machines. These technologies can be used to make both humans
and things smarter. NLQA technology can improve a virtual customer service
representative. NLQA can also be used by doctors to research huge amounts of
medical journals and clinical tests to help diagnose an ailment or choose a
suitable treatment plan. These supporting technologies are foundational for
both humans and machines as we move forward to a digital future and
enterprises should consider quantum computing, prescriptive analytics,
neurobusiness, NLQA, big data, complex event processing, in-memory database
management system (DBMS), cloud computing, in-memory analytics and predictive
analytics. 

Additional information is available in Gartner's "Hype Cycle for Emerging
Technologies, 2013" at http://www.gartner.com/resId=2571624. The Special
Report includes a video in which Ms. Fenn provides more details regarding
this year's Hype Cycles, as well as links to all of the Hype Cycle reports.
The Special Report can be found at
http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/hype-cycles/. 

Mr. LeHong and Ms. Fenn will provide additional analysis during the Gartner
webinar "Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle for 2013: Redefining the
Relationship" on August 21, at 10 a.m. EDT and 1 p.m. EDT. To register for
one of these complimentary webinars, please visit
http://my.gartner.com/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=202&mode=2&PageID=5553&resId=2546719&ref=Webinar-Calendar.

 

Contacts

Janessa Rivera

Gartner

janessa.rivera at gartner.com

Rob van der Meulen

Gartner

rob.vandermeulen at gartner.com


From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Oct  9 09:37:07 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 11:37:07 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Attacking Tor: how the NSA targets users' online anonymity
Message-ID: <20131009093707.GQ10405@leitl.org>


(Use VM jails with amnesiac distros like Tails for daily browsing, 
separate security compartments using CubeOS and related, use air 
gap with USB sneakernet (using *nix with no USB autorun) to 
encrypt/decrypt and maintain sensitive information in general).

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/04/tor-attacks-nsa-users-online-anonymity

Attacking Tor: how the NSA targets users' online anonymity

Secret servers and a privileged position on the internet's backbone used to
identify users and attack target computers

Bruce Schneier

theguardian.com, Friday 4 October 2013 15.50 BST

Tor is a well-designed and robust anonymity tool, and successfully attacking
it is difficult. Photograph: Magdalena Rehova/Alamy

The online anonymity network Tor is a high-priority target for the National
Security Agency. The work of attacking Tor is done by the NSA's application
vulnerabilities branch, which is part of the systems intelligence
directorate, or SID. The majority of NSA employees work in SID, which is
tasked with collecting data from communications systems around the world.

According to a top-secret NSA presentation provided by the whistleblower
Edward Snowden, one successful technique the NSA has developed involves
exploiting the Tor browser bundle, a collection of programs designed to make
it easy for people to install and use the software. The trick identified Tor
users on the internet and then executes an attack against their Firefox web
browser.

The NSA refers to these capabilities as CNE, or computer network
exploitation.

The first step of this process is finding Tor users. To accomplish this, the
NSA relies on its vast capability to monitor large parts of the internet.
This is done via the agency's partnership with US telecoms firms under
programs codenamed Stormbrew, Fairview, Oakstar and Blarney.

The NSA creates "fingerprints" that detect http requests from the Tor network
to particular servers. These fingerprints are loaded into NSA database
systems like XKeyscore, a bespoke collection and analysis tool which NSA
boasts allows its analysts to see "almost everything" a target does on the
internet.

Using powerful data analysis tools with codenames such as Turbulence, Turmoil
and Tumult, the NSA automatically sifts through the enormous amount of
internet traffic that it sees, looking for Tor connections.

Last month, Brazilian TV news show Fantastico showed screenshots of an NSA
tool that had the ability to identify Tor users by monitoring internet
traffic.

The very feature that makes Tor a powerful anonymity service, and the fact
that all Tor users look alike on the internet, makes it easy to differentiate
Tor users from other web users. On the other hand, the anonymity provided by
Tor makes it impossible for the NSA to know who the user is, or whether or
not the user is in the US.

After identifying an individual Tor user on the internet, the NSA uses its
network of secret internet servers to redirect those users to another set of
secret internet servers, with the codename FoxAcid, to infect the user's
computer. FoxAcid is an NSA system designed to act as a matchmaker between
potential targets and attacks developed by the NSA, giving the agency
opportunity to launch prepared attacks against their systems.

Once the computer is successfully attacked, it secretly calls back to a
FoxAcid server, which then performs additional attacks on the target computer
to ensure that it remains compromised long-term, and continues to provide
eavesdropping information back to the NSA.

Exploiting the Tor browser bundle

Tor is a well-designed and robust anonymity tool, and successfully attacking
it is difficult. The NSA attacks we found individually target Tor users by
exploiting vulnerabilities in their Firefox browsers, and not the Tor
application directly.

This, too, is difficult. Tor users often turn off vulnerable services like
scripts and Flash when using Tor, making it difficult to target those
services. Even so, the NSA uses a series of native Firefox vulnerabilities to
attack users of the Tor browser bundle.

According to the training presentation provided by Snowden,
EgotisticalGiraffe exploits a type confusion vulnerability in E4X, which is
an XML extension for Javascript. This vulnerability exists in Firefox 11.0 ?
16.0.2, as well as Firefox 10.0 ESR ? the Firefox version used until recently
in the Tor browser bundle. According to another document, the vulnerability
exploited by EgotisticalGiraffe was inadvertently fixed when Mozilla removed
the E4X library with the vulnerability, and when Tor added that Firefox
version into the Tor browser bundle, but NSA were confident that they would
be able to find a replacement Firefox exploit that worked against version
17.0 ESR.

The Quantum system

To trick targets into visiting a FoxAcid server, the NSA relies on its secret
partnerships with US telecoms companies. As part of the Turmoil system, the
NSA places secret servers, codenamed Quantum, at key places on the internet
backbone. This placement ensures that they can react faster than other
websites can. By exploiting that speed difference, these servers can
impersonate a visited website to the target before the legitimate website can
respond, thereby tricking the target's browser to visit a Foxacid server.

In the academic literature, these are called "man-in-the-middle" attacks, and
have been known to the commercial and academic security communities. More
specifically, they are examples of "man-on-the-side" attacks.

They are hard for any organization other than the NSA to reliably execute,
because they require the attacker to have a privileged position on the
internet backbone, and exploit a "race condition" between the NSA server and
the legitimate website. This top-secret NSA diagram, made public last month,
shows a Quantum server impersonating Google in this type of attack.

The NSA uses these fast Quantum servers to execute a packet injection attack,
which surreptitiously redirects the target to the FoxAcid server. An article
in the German magazine Spiegel, based on additional top secret Snowden
documents, mentions an NSA developed attack technology with the name of
QuantumInsert that performs redirection attacks. Another top-secret Tor
presentation provided by Snowden mentions QuantumCookie to force cookies onto
target browsers, and another Quantum program to "degrade/deny/disrupt Tor
access".

This same technique is used by the Chinese government to block its citizens
from reading censored internet content, and has been hypothesized as a
probable NSA attack technique.

The FoxAcid system

According to various top-secret documents provided by Snowden, FoxAcid is the
NSA codename for what the NSA calls an "exploit orchestrator," an
internet-enabled system capable of attacking target computers in a variety of
different ways. It is a Windows 2003 computer configured with custom software
and a series of Perl scripts. These servers are run by the NSA's tailored
access operations, or TAO, group. TAO is another subgroup of the systems
intelligence directorate.

The servers are on the public internet. They have normal-looking domain
names, and can be visited by any browser from anywhere; ownership of those
domains cannot be traced back to the NSA.

However, if a browser tries to visit a FoxAcid server with a special URL,
called a FoxAcid tag, the server attempts to infect that browser, and then
the computer, in an effort to take control of it. The NSA can trick browsers
into using that URL using a variety of methods, including the race-condition
attack mentioned above and frame injection attacks.

FoxAcid tags are designed to look innocuous, so that anyone who sees them
would not be suspicious. An example of one such tag [LINK REMOVED] is given
in another top-secret training presentation provided by Snowden.

There is no currently registered domain name by that name; it is just an
example for internal NSA training purposes.

The training material states that merely trying to visit the homepage of a
real FoxAcid server will not result in any attack, and that a specialized URL
is required. This URL would be created by TAO for a specific NSA operation,
and unique to that operation and target. This allows the FoxAcid server to
know exactly who the target is when his computer contacts it.

According to Snowden, FoxAcid is a general CNE system, used for many types of
attacks other than the Tor attacks described here. It is designed to be
modular, with flexibility that allows TAO to swap and replace exploits if
they are discovered, and only run certain exploits against certain types of
targets.

The most valuable exploits are saved for the most important targets.
Low-value exploits are run against technically sophisticated targets where
the chance of detection is high. TAO maintains a library of exploits, each
based on a different vulnerability in a system. Different exploits are
authorized against different targets, depending on the value of the target,
the target's technical sophistication, the value of the exploit, and other
considerations.

In the case of Tor users, FoxAcid might use EgotisticalGiraffe against their
Firefox browsers.

FoxAcid servers also have sophisticated capabilities to avoid detection and
to ensure successful infection of its targets. One of the top-secret
documents provided by Snowden demonstrates how FoxAcid can circumvent
commercial products that prevent malicious software from making changes to a
system that survive a reboot process.

According to a top-secret operational management procedures manual provided
by Snowden, once a target is successfully exploited it is infected with one
of several payloads. Two basic payloads mentioned in the manual, are designed
to collect configuration and location information from the target computer so
an analyst can determine how to further infect the computer.

These decisions are made in part by the technical sophistication of the
target and the security software installed on the target computer; called
Personal Security Products or PSP, in the manual.

FoxAcid payloads are updated regularly by TAO. For example, the manual refers
to version 8.2.1.1 of one of them.

FoxAcid servers also have sophisticated capabilities to avoid detection and
to ensure successful infection of its targets. The operations manual states
that a FoxAcid payload with the codename DireScallop can circumvent
commercial products that prevent malicious software from making changes to a
system that survive a reboot process.

The NSA also uses phishing attacks to induce users to click on FoxAcid tags.

TAO additionally uses FoxAcid to exploit callbacks ? which is the general
term for a computer infected by some automatic means ? calling back to the
NSA for more instructions and possibly to upload data from the target
computer.

According to a top-secret operational management procedures manual, FoxAcid
servers configured to receive callbacks are codenamed FrugalShot. After a
callback, the FoxAcid server may run more exploits to ensure that the target
computer remains compromised long term, as well as install "implants"
designed to exfiltrate data.

By 2008, the NSA was getting so much FoxAcid callback data that they needed
to build a special system to manage it all.


From rahmans at me.com  Wed Oct  9 10:53:52 2013
From: rahmans at me.com (Omar Rahman)
Date: Wed, 09 Oct 2013 12:53:52 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <mailman.46.1381294653.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.46.1381294653.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <2E607AFE-D3EF-4DFB-8F37-EEEAE84E2277@me.com>

> 
> From: "spike" <spike66 at att.net>
>> ?Annual appropriations are divided into 12 separate pieces of legislation:
> 
> 
> 
> Cool thanks Omar.  Let us look at these please.
> 
> 1.     Agriculture?
> 
> OK agriculture.  Why do we need government to be involved in that?  Why?  In the old days we set up subsidies for farmers to not grow stuff.  It was a means of price support, which we no longer need, given international markets.  We had the notion of subsidizing excess food production in case a world war suddenly takes huge numbers of people away from normal food production.  That paradigm is ever more outdated as fewer and fewer people are needed for both agriculture and military: both tasks are mostly done by machines now.  Does anyone think we face a world war 2 style conflict in which millions of guys face each other at short range with rifles?  Nah.  Get rid of the Department of Agriculture.

In general I'm in favour of subsidies only to support farmers in times of disaster or to encourage new types of production that might not be initially profitable. So generally we should remove a lot of subsidies. The problem with that is that other countries have lots of  subsidies and/or cheaper costs due to the artificially high American dollar. One solution to this is to take such countries to task for breaking 'free trade' provisions. Another is to let the presses roll until a can of pop costs $100. Another is to adopt a global currency and let the markets sort it out. Or a mix of these things.

But, aside from subsidies, the Department of Agriculture does lots of other things that we need. You know that thing with the cows and the transformation of grass into methane.....something like that. (/joke If it weren't for Agriculture most Red States wouldn't have any culture at all! /endjoke)

> 
> 2.     Commerce,
> 
> Why do we need a department of commerce?  Let states regulate commerce.  I don?t see anything in the constitution which justifies having that department.

Even if it wasn't specifically listed in the constitution, the fact of which I haven't ascertained, it doesn't mean that having that power is unconstitutional. Case in point, "Obamacare" was held to be constitutional even though there is nothing in the constitution about healthcare mandates.

Aside from this, what 'special power' do states have to govern commerce that the federal government doesn't or can't possess? As an engineer Spike would you like one of your rockets to have 50 parallel incompatible control systems? Do you really think that that would be more efficient? Or that it would even work? This goes for most of your arguments that powers should devolve to individual states.

> 
> Justice
> 
> Justice is a good thing.  Keep it unchanged.
> 
> , and Science,
> 
> Science is a good thing.  Freeze or reduce pay slightly.  They will not leave.  There are fewer attractive options for scientists now than there once was.
> 
> 3.     Defense?
> 
> This can be greatly reduced.  With a military the size of the ours, it is too tempting for a US president to use it, even when the consequences would likely be catastrophic. Examples, Iraq, Afghanistan, and narrowly averted recent use in Syria.  Keeping an enormous military force has been nothing but trouble for the US for a couple decades: everyone expects us to use it to help them.  They fooled us into going into Iraq, then very nearly fooled us into going into Syria, all because we have this absurdly oversized military.  Reduce it.

As a thought experiment, what would happen if 'by accident' we gave the Defence Department and Homeland Security Department budgets to the Justice, Science, and Education (and maybe a few other) Departments and vice versa? I have no fear for the long term security of the United States. The military budget is literally weakening the country. The Budgeteers, like generals, are 'fighting the last war' and by that I mean the Cold War. That's the one, if you remember, that we won by literally outspending the Soviets until their economy collapsed. We shouldn't now defeat ourselves with the same weapon.

> 
> 4.     Energy
> 
> Why do we need government involved in that?  Let energy companies run energy policy, and let them compete.  Hell they could raise their own mercenary armies to defend far-flung oil fields and supply lines, hiring the locals to do the defending.  If the result is the cost of oil rose to what it really costs to get the stuff out of the ground and delivered safely, well so be it.  We pay for it anyway.  Then we wouldn?t need government subsidies on domestic alternatives: they would become cost effective even sooner with cost savings all around.

Sure, let the energy companies do their own security work. Most of the threats to American security are actually threats to 'American' financial interests. 'American' in quotes because can anyone really say that the Oil Majors are American? But for their sakes we have done things like depose the duly elected government of Iran in a coup.  (And we are surprised that they a still pissed off about it!)

> 
> and Water,
> 
> Water is a good thing.  Leave as is.

Water is the most important thing even. Without it nothing else is possible. LIfe, health, agriculture cease without it. As I'm sure you're better aware than myself that space exploration and settlement is waiting on being able to secure large amounts of water than almost anything else. (Big rockets...check! Power sources...check! Habitation modules...check! Water to keep the biologicals bio and logical...um......in orbits where you'll get hit or not present in useable densities on the ground.) As someone one said, :You can't drink the oil. You can't eat the money."

> 
> 5.     Financial Services,
> 
> I do see that we need to make interest payments, in full, on time.  Much of that goes to foreign bond holders.  If we default on that and they stop loaning, evolution help us.  Leave as is.  Note that if the borrowing limit is hit, the government still has income: people still pay taxes.  This revenue can cover interest payments with change left over to actually run the government.
> 
> Regarding foreign investors, I do wonder what this must look like to them.  We have admitted we cannot operate on the taxes we collect, we cannot live the life to which we are fondly accustomed on the money we make.  So now we depend on foreign investors to loan us money to pay them the interest we owe them?  And we are debating whether we will allow ourselves to borrow more?  And still they lend?  Why?  What am I missing here?

Why is that first hit of heroin, crack, etc. free? Why do they keep giving it to you when you try to get clean? Because then you're 'their bitch' as they say.

> 
> 6.     Homeland Security
> 
> Reduce it.  We went all those years without it, we can slim down on it now.

Yup, we have lots of spy agencies who are already doing more than we probably really want them to do. Hello to the NSA observers of the Exi list! Does an actual NSA person read this or do we only rate keyword skimming? We really should name our observer, I suggest #NSA_SEEL. I found a nice verb as a synonym for blind: seel - sew up the eyelids of hawks and falcons

> 
> 7.     Interior and Environment,
> 
> Reduce it some.  The big battles are long behind us now.  Notice how clean the air has become just in our lifetimes.  I do congratulate those who fought and won those struggles. It worked.  The air is clean now.  Reducing the EPA will not suddenly cause car companies to stop using catalytic converters, and besides, both those tasks could be done on a state level.

Here I disagree, the EPA is critically underfunded. As science and technology progress, we hope at an exponential rate, the need for someone to oversee what we can and can't release into the environment is magnified. As before, devolving this power to the sates does not add either legitimacy or efficiency. *copy*

> 
> 8.     Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education,
> 
> All four of those could and probably should be done on a state level.

*paste* As before, devolving this power to the sates does not add either legitimacy or efficiency.

> 
> 9.     Legislative,
> 
> So we have seen.

Yes. All this hullabaloo, mostly in Red States, to ensure that voters are qualified to vote and it turns out that any pet chimpanzee in a gerrymandered district with a psychotic billionaire holding their leash can get elected.

> 
> 10. Military and Veterans,
> 
> Veterans no change.  Military: size reduction.  We won the wars, now we should offer every enlisted an option to bail with an honorable discharge, no questions asked.  Ossifers get a 10% reduction in pay, other benefits unchanged.  Most will not leave.

Yup, take care of the veterans for they have gone to the closest thing to hell that we know of. The next major war will be the 'drone war' and every teenager seems to be in active training with their consoles and computers already so we don't need so many active duty personnel. We probably need to recruit more psychologists, psychiatrists and ethicist now so that when the 'drone war' starts we can move beyond seeing our enemies as 'bug splats' waiting to happen. Why, when, and how we wage war are essential ways for judging the moral quality of a civilisation. Hooray for diplomacy being able to remove chemical weapons from Syria.

> 
> 11. State and Foreign Operations,
> 
> No comment.

To comment, or not to comment, that is the question:
Whether 'tis Nobler in the mind to suffer
The Slings and Arrows of outrageous Comments,
Or to take Arms against a Sea of comments,
And by opposing end them: 

I too shall comment not lest our commenting comments beget.

> 
> 12. Transportation and Housing and Urban Development.
> 
> Transportation: the big costs are behind us now that the interstate highway system is complete.  Don?t build more of them.  Housing and Urban Development: do that on a state level.  I see no reason why the fed should be involved in housing at all.
> 

Hyperloops anyone? Maintenance of existing infrastructure is underfunded. State level? *paste* As before, devolving this power to the sates does not add either legitimacy or efficiency.

> 
>> ?These are funded by by appropriations that could be blocked by a slim majority of refuseniks?
> 
> 
> 
> But recall that ObamaCare was passed without senate debate because one party had a temporary supermajority, which is 60 out of 100 seats.  With that, they could force a vote on a bill which was never debated on the senate floor, since it only required a senate simple majority to pass.
> 

Not debated on the floor does not mean it wasn't  debated. In fact many, myself included, feel it was watered down with too many compromises.

> 
> 
>> ? or potentially by a simple filibuster in the senate?
> 
> 
> 
> Indeed.  Back when ObamaCare was crafted, any actual debate of the substance of the bill was called a filibuster.  How strange is this, when actual debate about the content of a bill being crafted in private is called a filibuster.  The contents of the bill created in private was not on the public record.  So now we have an absurdity: nearly all the commentary in the historic record of the US senate with regard to ObamaCare was read into the record by Tea Party guy Ted Cruz.  Historians will find this most amusing: the US passed the biggest change in the structure of government without public debate.  This led to such howlers as the speaker of the house commenting that we need to hurry and pass this bill so we can find out what is in it.  Cannot they see this would lead to all manner of mischief?  Once we pass it and find out what is in it, that no one likes it, for instance, or that it is unworkable.  We find out that the whole scheme really depends on young and healthy peo!
> ple buying overpriced health insurance.  If they don?t come, the scheme doesn?t work.  They aren?t coming.
> 
> 
> 
>> ?The American system of government is based on a system of "checks and balances"?
> 
> 
> 
> Ja, and that system is defeated if one party holds all three seats of power and a supermajority in the senate, as we saw.  The government was given unlimited power.  They immediately abused it.
> 

That's not a bug that's a feature of the system. If the democrats in the  Legislative branch had had more spine they really could have done almost anything. Campaign finance reform, a balanced budget amendment, reversing 'Citizen's United', the list goes on and on. Instead they wasted their chance by compromising to implement a version Mitt Romney's Massachusetts health care plan.

> 
> 
>> ? The President and the Senate have made it clear that they do not accept this "legislation by appropriation" and insist that "Obamacare" be funded. The Supreme Court has upheld it's constitutionality. That's 2.5 branches of government in favor of "Obamacare" vs. 0.5 branches against. Time to check your balance I'd say?
> 
> 
> 
> Sure.  Now what happens when we check our balance, it is zero, so we need yet another increase in debt limit?  We set a precedent that the government cannot stop borrowing, that it must borrow just to pay ordinary operating expenses.  Then the check on our balance must come from our creditors.  We will not like the way China runs this place.
> 
> 

Totally with you on that. We need to get our financial house in order. We will not enjoy 'being someone's bitch'. They will make us do things with our offices and orifices that we do not wish to.

> 
> 
> 
>> ?Mr. Sowell may be right that "legislation by appropriation" isn't new, but he is wrong to imply that this is a sensible way to govern?
> 
> 
> 
> We must check our spending, or China will do it for us.  We will not like it.
> 

Agreed!

> 
> 
>> ?And to Spike,
> 
> 
> 
>> ?The Government is running the exchanges and regulating the market: these activities cost money and do not raise money?
> 
> 
> 
> Easy solution: let the insurance companies run the exchanges, leave the market regulation to the states.  Open it up so that anyone can buy insurance from any state.  That creates fifty competing markets, regulated by competition among states.
> 

*paste*As before, devolving this power to the sates does not add either legitimacy or efficiency.

First rule of state regulation is: we do not recognise out of state regulation. So I think you mean 50 fragmented markets, where if you step over some line on a map 'Procedure A' is or isn't covered. Very logical, we all know that our medical needs are determined ultimately by our position on a map and not on the conditions within our bodies.


> 
> 
>> ? The legislation is supposed to be cost neutral to the public as an aggregate. (Hopefully cost beneficial if this experiment in mixing free markets and universal coverage works out.) Perhaps you are proposing the introduction of fees into the markets so that it would be self-supporting, yes Spike? ;)
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks for that clarification.  If the whole notion relies on young and healthy people picking up the bills for the old and sick, this whole scheme will fail.  Here?s how you will know: count the number of people who are young and healthy who opt to buy into the exchanges rather than pay the tax.  Notice no one will tell us how many are doing it.  I suspect it is few, and I don?t blame them: health insurance for a young healthy person is a bad deal, even after the tax penalty is taken into account.
> 

This is in some ways the heart of the matter. Statistically, it is a bad deal for a young person to pay for a system that they will probably not need "right now". Just as an old person with no hope of cryo-presevation or life extension has no interest in paying for the development or maintenance of infrastructure they they will probably never use. This is the the fundamental problem of most libertarians. Libertarians generally believe that people will 'take care of themselves' and 'need freedom from external control' and with a bunch of hand waving everything will somehow 'work'.

And the strange thing is: they're right. As we evolved from our apelike ancestors we were free, completely free. We could run away from our troop, join another troop, live alone, find our own food, etc.

And guess what, organised groups, which shared their resources, propagated their culture, etc. outcompeted and out evolved their 'freer' brethren who now sadly found primarily in primate exhibits in our zoos.

And because the young person might have an accident "right now" and need care so that "sooner or later" they will be an old person who needs health care is why we socialise these costs. Also, the old person from my example might go to 'Place X' and walk across "Bridge Y" thereby showing a reason for him to pay for the development and maintenance of infrastructure.

Ideally, this insurance shouldn't be private, it should be public. It offends me that some corporation with access to 'big data', advanced analytic methods, and an army of lawyers can essentially profit from misfortune.

> 
> 
>> ? So even if we do have revenue coming in which exceeds our interest payments we have no legal way to pay it without an (You know what's coming don't you?) appropriations bill?
> 
> 
> 
> I disagree with this.  The government can still issue checks to bond holders on executive order to the federal reserve.  This may be demonstrated in 9 days.  Good chance what might happen is the house would pass a midnight bill authorizing it on the 17th.
> 
> 

I defer to you in this as I'm not sure of the legalities or what will happen. In 9 days, if they push things that far, I hope that someone pulls some legal rabbit out of a hat (or out of their ass for that matter, it matters not where from, just that the rabbit appears) and the bills get paid.

> 
>> ?I've lived all my life in countries with universal health care, Canada and Poland, except for 2 years in the US where I wasn't covered. Thankfully I didn't get seriously ill in the US. Personally I like knowing that I'm "covered"?
> 
> 
> 
> You were always free to buy health insurance or pay for it out of your personal funds, even in the US.  I have heard this so often from people who came to the US from Europe especially.  I recommend if you want to be in the US and not buy health insurance, that you keep your citizenship, or maintain dual citizenship.  Then if you get sick, head on back to the homeland for treatment.  Otherwise just buy health insurance: it has always been there.  Ja it is expensive, but the way we do healthcare in the US is expensive: we charge those who have insurance more to cover the bills of those who do not.  That is what caused this whole mess to start with.
> 

I was young and healthy and took the logical risk......while knowing that I could probably just run back to Canada to get health care and/or declare bankruptcy to avoid debts piled up by any emergency care (thus passing my financial responsibilities on to rate paying policy holders in classic 'freeloader') or that my Dad is a doctor and my Mom is a nurse and 1/2 my family in Pakistan are doctors. In short, I had options and in the end I didn't get unlucky.

I would consider myself to be a (very?) atypical case. What matters is the general person, one without my options, and they need health care.

About the cost, there are 2 things wrong with health care in the US in my opinion. One is more or less specific to the US and one is almost universal.

The specific: US health care is run at a profit generally for the benefit of insurance companies and lawyers.

The universal: Doctors operate as a guild and limit the supply of new doctors to keep prices up.

Solution to the specific problem in the US requires a cultural shift away from litigiousness and towards a 'not for profit' insurer.

Solution to the universal problem is taking place in the form of the rise of 'nurse practitioners' and expert systems. Hooray for "Doctor Watson"!

> 
>> ? It builds trust in society?
> 
> 
> 
> Indeed sir.  ObamaCare has created more distrust in society than I have seen in my lifetime.  I predict catastrophic failure of the whole venture.
> 
> 

It is surprising to me that someone trying to look after the nation's health generates more distrust than the NSA (hello #NSA_SEEL!) monitoring all our communications but I cannot deny that at least in some quarters that this is indeed the case.

> 
>> ? and makes us richer ?as a nation?. Regards, Omar
> 
> 
> 
> Ja, what happens if we build it, but the young and healthies do not come?  Where are we then as a nation?  We mostly took apart a system which kinda worked, Medicare, defunded that and substituted one which looks like a failure right out of the starting gate.  I will change my mind as soon as I see jillions of healthy young people flocking into the exchanges and actually buying the insurance.  Right now the system is crashing under the load of millions of old and sick people struggling to opt in, and millions of healthy shoppers who see the price tag and decide to opt out.  Omar, I admire your idealism, but I think this scheme will fail spectacularly.
> 
> 
> 
> spike
> 
> 

If the young do not come they will be fined. Also, parents are able to keep their children covered until they are 26. And, speaking as one parent to another, while my son might or might not appreciate the value of health insurance before he reaches the age of 27, I certainly do.

Though I thank you, you need not think me idealistic, I am quite the realist in this as I have participated in two national health care systems. Of all the countries in the world the US and Canada are perhaps the most similar. If the system does fail spectacularly you need look no further than your northern border for a system to adopt. A very real system, with the complications and problems of any real system, that works. Works at a fraction of the per capita cost of the American 'system'.

A good read is located at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_the_health_care_systems_in_Canada_and_the_United_States


As a last item, what does any of this have to do with Extropianism you ask? Lots, politics and morality are not going to go away, and as we approach a potential BRANCHING POINT in evolution politics and morality may become more important than ever.


Best regards,

Omar Rahman

P.S. This went much longer than I intended and I don't have time for a good edit so please be merciful in your interpretations of any errors I have made. As I always I am open to correction of any factual errors I have made.




 



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From rahmans at me.com  Wed Oct  9 11:12:55 2013
From: rahmans at me.com (Omar Rahman)
Date: Wed, 09 Oct 2013 13:12:55 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <mailman.46.1381294653.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.46.1381294653.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <9B616DA5-75FC-4D60-9CEF-92C7A256E2E2@me.com>

> Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 00:45:37 -0400
> From: Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie
> 	Apocalypse!)
> Message-ID:
> 	<CAAc1gFjybYHLpvWxKXNqxj9F2BYci6XnB4X9p4yO4V0_mwumCg at mail.gmail.com>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
> 
> On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 10:32 AM, Omar Rahman <rahmans at me.com> wrote:
> 
>> 
>> For something written by someone with a sense of humor please check out John
>> Stewart or Stephen Colbert.
> 
> ### I abstain from listening to CC. Their humor is too often of the
> servile kind, laughing with the master, not at him.
> 
> -----------------
>> 
>> The American system of government is based on a system of "checks and
>> balances". The President and the Senate have made it clear that they do not
>> accept this "legislation by appropriation" and insist that "Obamacare" be
>> funded. The Supreme Court has upheld it's constitutionality. That's 2.5
>> branches of government in favor of "Obamacare" vs. 0.5 branches against.
>> Time to check your balance I'd say.
> 
> ### To go back to the initial contention: Congress gave the president
> about 99% of the money he needs to run the government. The president
> refused to run the government, and shut it down. He could have taken
> the money and done his job but refused to.
> 
> Do you agree that the president shut down the government?

In a word; no.

> 
> ------------------
>> 
>> Mr. Sowell may be right that "legislation by appropriation" isn't new, but
>> he is wrong to imply that this is a sensible way to govern. All we have to
>> do to prove this is imagine what chaos would occur if Congress were to take
>> aim at the laundry list above 'unless' they get x, y, or z.
> 
> ### Yes, let's imagine: Maybe, if there was a balance between drunken
> sailors and accountants, we would not have about 250 - 300 trillion
> dollars in unfunded government liabilities. Maybe, if the doves could
> keep the hawks in check, our nation would not have the blood of
> millions of brown people on our hands. Perhaps a few refuseniks could
> say no to the fifth estate (the permanent government,) and the Federal
> Register would be 700 pages, instead of 79,000 pages long.
> 
> Would that be chaos? Dunno. But, to quote Mr Obama, "and make no
> mistake about it" - chaos is now, and it is the result of our
> "sensible" way of governing.
> 
> Rafal

I wholeheartedly agree that US foreign policy has resulted in millions of unnecessary deaths for very little gain or service to the American people. I also agree that we have 'chaos' now and it is the result of "sensible" governing, which is to say nonsensical governing.

Your point about the Federal Register is actually the one that most impacts us as Extropians I think. How do we avoid binding ourselves in overly complicated and inevitably contradictory legislation? As we move towards an existence as information in a machine a process for 'negotiating protocols' and 'maintaining backward compatibility' needs to be designed. We started with such a lovely 'kernel', the Constitution, and people have put so many layers on top of that now that it's hard to see the beauty of the original implementation. That said, we could have the modern generation of apps that we have with out all those APIs.

Regards,

Omar Rahman

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From msd001 at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 12:24:17 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 08:24:17 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Attacking Tor: how the NSA targets users' online anonymity
In-Reply-To: <20131009093707.GQ10405@leitl.org>
References: <20131009093707.GQ10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbKKrdqffeSXaJz1V0QvNqS10XTW4Z6tN6yN0cp9F+s-Mg@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 5:37 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

>
> (Use VM jails with amnesiac distros like Tails for daily browsing,
> separate security compartments using CubeOS and related, use air
> gap with USB sneakernet (using *nix with no USB autorun) to
> encrypt/decrypt and maintain sensitive information in general).
>
>

> According to a top-secret operational management procedures manual, FoxAcid
> servers configured to receive callbacks are codenamed FrugalShot. After a
> callback, the FoxAcid server may run more exploits to ensure that the
> target
> computer remains compromised long term, as well as install "implants"
> designed to exfiltrate data.
>
> By 2008, the NSA was getting so much FoxAcid callback data that they needed
> to build a special system to manage it all.
>

This reads like a really bad cyberpunk story
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From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Oct  9 12:30:16 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 14:30:16 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Attacking Tor: how the NSA targets users' online anonymity
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbKKrdqffeSXaJz1V0QvNqS10XTW4Z6tN6yN0cp9F+s-Mg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20131009093707.GQ10405@leitl.org>
 <CAOJFdbKKrdqffeSXaJz1V0QvNqS10XTW4Z6tN6yN0cp9F+s-Mg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131009123016.GT10405@leitl.org>

On Wed, Oct 09, 2013 at 08:24:17AM -0400, Mike Dougherty wrote:

> This reads like a really bad cyberpunk story

Now you know why I don't find The Onion funny. 


From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Oct  9 13:40:18 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 15:40:18 +0200
Subject: [ExI] How Lavabit Melted Down
Message-ID: <20131009134018.GW10405@leitl.org>


http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2013/10/how-lavabit-edward-snowden-email-service-melted-down.html

HOW LAVABIT MELTED DOWN

POSTED BY MICHAEL PHILLIPS AND MATT BUCHANAN

On August 8th, Lavabit, newly famous for being the secure e-mail service used
by the National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden, went dark. Its
owner and operator, Ladar Levison, replaced its home page with a message: ?I
cannot share my experiences over the last six weeks, even though I have twice
made the appropriate requests.? Levison could write only that he chose to
shut down the company rather than ?become complicit in crimes against the
American people,? and he promised to ?fight for the Constitution in the
Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals.?

Court-watchers repeatedly checked the Fourth Circuit docket to see whether
Levison would follow through. While the Fourth Circuit kept the appeals
secret and placed them under seal, observers deduced that Levison?s appeals
were the ones numbered 13-4625 and 13-4626. Last week, U.S. District Judge
Claude M. Hilton unsealed a hundred and sixty-two pages of previously secret
documents related to two District Court orders issued against Lavabit, so
that Levison could have a public record of his appeals. These disclosures
fall short of the ideal of open justice, but they do give Levison?s ordeal a
public shape.

They also allow Levison to speak more openly now. This past weekend, in
Manhattan?s Bryant Park, his demeanor was steady, if clearly burdened; he is,
after all, a man who was forced to destroy the business he had spent most of
the past decade building, and who is locked in a legal and philosophical
battle against the United States government.

Levison wore a white, starched collared shirt with thin gold cufflinks; the
afternoon was warm, and sweat, mixed with the gel that fixed his hair in a
slightly spiked coiffure, dotted his forehead. He spoke sternly but
calmly?his tenor lacked the quiet frenzy of, say, Thomas Drake, the N.S.A.
whistleblower, even though most of what he had to say was bad news, if you
value electronic privacy or security. He doesn?t use e-mail on his Android
smartphone, for instance, because neither the software nor the hardware of
any commercial phone can be trusted; carriers and phone makers can push
malware onto the device, he said. Yet his views are far from radical. While
he opposes the bulk collection of domestic communications, he has no such
strong feelings about the N.S.A.?s foreign-surveillance efforts. He is, if
anything, disappointed that the U.S. government would spy on its own citizens
on such a grand scale, and with such impunity, even though Levison?s decision
to build a privacy-oriented e-mail service in the first place, in 2004, was
partly in response to the Patriot Act. Part of Lavabit?s mission, before it
shut down, was that it would ?never sacrifice privacy for profits.? One of
its most notable features was that, for paying users, it encrypted e-mail
messages and other files stored on its server so that they could not be read
by third parties without a user?s password.

As the Times reported last week, the unsealed documents reveal that the first
chapter of Levison?s ?tangle with law enforcement? began in May?well before
the first Snowden leak of the N.S.A.?s massive database of call logs broke in
June?when an F.B.I. agent left his business card on Levison?s doorstep. On
June 10th, the government secured an order from the Eastern District of
Virginia. The order, issued under the Stored Communications Act, required
Lavabit to turn over to the F.B.I. retrospective information about one
account, widely presumed to be that of Snowden. (The name of the target
remains redacted, and Levison could not divulge it.) The order directed
Lavabit to surrender names and addresses, Internet Protocol and Media Access
Control addresses, the volume of each and every data transfer, the duration
of every ?session,? and the ?source and destination? of all communications
associated with the account. It also forbade Levison and Lavabit from
discussing the matter with anyone.

Levison now says that while that particular investigation ?escalated,? it was
not the only one to land at his doorstep in recent years. He believes that
even if he hadn?t hosted the e-mail account of the target, Lavabit would
eventually have found itself in the position that it?s in now because it
?constitutes a gap? in the government?s intelligence. The broader
implication?as shown by the N.S.A.?s efforts to attack the anonymous Tor
network?is that intelligence agencies will try to crack any service designed
for privacy and used at scale.

On June 28th, the Eastern District Court of Virginia issued another order,
?authorizing the installation and use of a pen register and the use of a trap
and trace device? on all electronic communications being sent from or to the
account. The term ?pen register? is a relic of Morse?s telegraph; it refers
to the mechanical pen that recorded the electrical pulses that routed a
telegraph. Today, the term is used to refer to any device or process that
records outgoing routing information, such as phone numbers dialed or e-mail
addresses typed. A ?trap and trace device? does the inverse, and records
incoming phone numbers, e-mail addresses, and other connections. A court may
issue this kind of order if the information likely to be captured is
?relevant to an ongoing criminal investigation.? This order also forbade
Lavabit from discussing the matter.

The unsealed documents describe a meeting on June 28th between the F.B.I. and
Levison at Levison?s home in Dallas. There, according to the documents,
Levison told the F.B.I. that he would not comply with the pen-register order
and wanted to speak to an attorney. As the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern
District of Virginia, Neil MacBride, described it, ?It was unclear whether
Mr. Levison would not comply with the order because it was technically not
feasible or difficult, or because it was not consistent with his business
practice in providing secure, encrypted e-mail service for his customers.?
The meeting must have gone poorly for the F.B.I. because McBride filed a
motion to compel Lavabit to comply with the pen-register and trap-and-trace
order that very same day.

Magistrate Judge Theresa Carroll Buchanan granted the motion, inserting in
her own handwriting that Lavabit was subject to ?the possibility of criminal
contempt of Court? if it failed to comply. When Levison didn?t comply, the
government issued a summons, ?United States of America v. Ladar Levison,?
ordering him to explain himself on July 16th. The newly unsealed documents
reveal tense talks between Levison and the F.B.I. in July. Levison wanted
additional assurances that any device installed in the Lavabit system would
capture only narrowly targeted data, and no more. He refused to provide
real-time access to Lavabit data; he refused to go to court unless the
government paid for his travel; and he refused to work with the F.B.I.?s
technology unless the government paid him for ?developmental time and
equipment.? He instead offered to write an intercept code for the account?s
metadata?for thirty-five hundred dollars. He asked Judge Hilton whether there
could be ?some sort of external audit? to make sure that the government did
not take additional data. (The government plan did not include any oversight
to which Levison would have access, he said.)

Most important, he refused to turn over the S.S.L. encryption keys that
scrambled the messages of Lavabit?s customers, and which prevent third
parties from reading them even if they obtain the messages. The pen-register
order required Levison to permit the F.B.I. to install the pen register and
provide ?technical assistance necessary to accomplish the installation.?
Levison argued that the ?technical assistance? provision did not require that
he surrender the S.S.L. keys, especially because he was willing to write
intercept code for the information the government desired. Giving up the keys
?would compromise all of the secure communications in and out my network,
including my own administrative traffic,? he told Judge Hilton. The U.S.
Attorney?s Office, for its part, insisted that without the S.S.L. keys, ?the
data from the pen register will be meaningless,? an analysis shared by
others. But the pen-register data may not have been ?meaningless? if the
government took up Levison?s offer to write his own intercept code.

Prior to the hearing on July 16th, the U.S. Attorney filed a motion for civil
contempt, requesting that Levison be fined a thousand dollars for every day
that he refused to comply with the pen-register order. Earlier in the day,
Hilton issued a search-and-seizure warrant, authorizing law enforcement to
seize from Lavabit ?all information necessary to decrypt communications sent
to or from [the account], including encryption keys and SSL keys,? and ?all
information necessary to decrypt data stored in or otherwise associated with
[the account].? On July 25th, Lavabit petitioned to cancel the subpoena and
warrant, arguing that if the ?government gains access to Lavabit?s Master
Key, it will have unlimited access to not only [the account], but all of the
communications and data stored in each of Lavabit?s 400,000 e-mail accounts.?
Lavabit also asked the court to unseal its records and permit Levison to
speak.

It was the government?s insistence on collecting the S.S.L. keys that most
deeply disturbed Levison, and led to the shutdown of Lavabit. He believes
that not only would the F.B.I. have had unfettered, secret access to the
communications of his four hundred thousand customers?without being required
to give Levison a log of what it accessed?but putting his encryption keys in
the hands of the government would have opened Lavabit to a more profound
exploitation of his service?s communications. Levison worried that if he
turned the keys over to the F.B.I., the N.S.A. would have been able to obtain
them without his knowledge through a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act
court order. We know now that the N.S.A. has been systematically cracking
encryption across the Web, and it has built a database of encryption keys
that automatically decode messages; this is dangerous, Levison says, because
it allows the N.S.A. to read encrypted communications as they flow past the
agency?s taps of the broader Internet infrastructure by simply observing
them, leaving no trace of the surveillance, unlike a traditional
?man-in-the-middle? attack. This vulnerability, he insists, is not
sufficiently understood. And, while the Times?s initial reporting indicates
that the N.S.A.?s method of obtaining the keys for its database is ?shrouded
in secrecy,? Levison suggests that his case also illustrates one of the ways
in which it collects them: by secretly compelling companies to turn them
over.

The F.B.I., Levison says, ?sold its soul? to the N.S.A. to acquire its
technologies and become a ?counter-intelligence agency? rather than a
domestic police force. The result is an agency with somewhat stunning
technical capabilities?it was the F.B.I. that used malware to identify users
of the Tor network in the course of its investigation of Freedom Hosting, the
anonymous service provider, an incident that disturbed Levison because it put
legitimate users at risk, even if he doesn?t agree with the illegal content
that Freedom Hosting was allegedly housing. Before the Bureau demanded
Lavabit?s S.S.L. keys, in fact, he was asked ?half a dozen times? about any
point in the system where information flowed through unencrypted so that the
F.B.I. could tap it. One result of this newfound expertise, however, is that
Levison believes there is a knowledge gap between the Department of Justice
and law-enforcement agencies; the former did not grasp the implications of
what the F.B.I. was asking for when it demanded his S.S.L. keys. (According
to Levison, the F.B.I. agents who came to his house were surprised that he
hadn?t seen one of the sets of documents that had been e-mailed to him
demanding Lavabit?s information; they pointed to his phone and said he could
look up the information right there. He responded, ?You know better than I do
why I don?t have e-mail on my phone.?)

On August 1st, Lavabit?s counsel, Jesse Binnall, reiterated Levison?s
proposal that the government engage Levison to extract the information from
the account himself rather than force him to turn over the S.S.L. keys.

THE COURT: You want to do it in a way that the government has to trust you?
BINNALL: Yes, Your Honor.

THE COURT: ?to come up with the right data.

BINNALL: That?s correct, Your Honor.

THE COURT: And you won?t trust the government. So why would the government
trust you?

Ultimately, the court ordered Levison to turn over the encryption key within
twenty-four hours. Had the government taken Levison up on his offer, he may
have provided it with Snowden?s data. Instead, by demanding the keys that
unlocked all of Lavabit, the government provoked Levison to make a last
stand. According to the U.S. Attorney MacBride?s motion for sanctions,

At approximately 1:30 p.m. CDT on August 2, 2013, Mr. Levison gave the F.B.I.
a printout of what he represented to be the encryption keys needed to operate
the pen register. This printout, in what appears to be four-point type,
consists of eleven pages of largely illegible characters. To make use of
these keys, the F.B.I. would have to manually input all two thousand five
hundred and sixty characters, and one incorrect keystroke in this laborious
process would render the F.B.I. collection system incapable of collecting
decrypted data.

The U.S. Attorneys? office called Lavabit?s lawyer, who responded that
Levison ?thinks? he could have an electronic version of the keys produced by
August 5th. Judge Hilton ordered that Levison and Lavabit be fined five
thousand dollars for each day that they did not turn over the
electronic-encryption keys. On August 8th, rather than turning over the
master key, Levison shut down Lavabit. A week later, Levison?s lawyers
announced that they were appealing to Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals, an
announcement that nearly got Levison into further trouble; the appeal was
promptly placed under seal.

Levison believes that when the government was faced with the choice between
getting information that might lead it to its target in a constrained manner
or expanding the reach of its surveillance, it chose the latter. The
documents, and Levison?s comments to us, suggest that although he is a
skeptic, he was willing to work with the government: he offered to write
intercept code himself to capture their target?s metadata, and acknowledged
that the government might have a right to the person?s information. He was
willing to turn that information over, as he did in a case involving child
pornography; Lavabit?s archived site in fact explicitly states that one of
the reasons its most secure services are available to paying customers only
is so that if an account ?is used for illegal purposes that money trail can
be used to track down the account owner.? But the government refused
Levison?s offer. It wanted the keys to everything, so he gave it nothing.

Levison will be back in court on Friday to file his opening brief with the
Fourth Circuit. The brief is Levison?s principal opportunity to make his
arguments. Levison may appeal the orders on a technological basis, and argue
that the pen-register order did not require the surrender of the S.S.L. keys.
Or he may appeal on a broader constitutional basis, and push the Fourth
Circuit to evaluate the legality of back-door Internet-surveillance programs.
On November 4th, the United States will file its response brief, after which
oral arguments will follow. Due to the case?s sensitivity, the court may hold
the arguments in secret. The United States and the court are waiting for
Levison?s brief, which could break one of at least two ways.

When this is all over, he plans to reopen Lavabit, if possible, in the United
States; he intends to stay in the country no matter what. If Lavabit can?t
operate securely in the U.S., he intends to hand off the project to someone
in a country with more sympathetic laws, such as Iceland or Switzerland. In
the meantime, he is beginning to think about the grander, harder project of
creating a replacement for e-mail that can be truly secure and easy to use,
although he?s not ready to say anything substantive about the project. With
the muzzle largely removed, he is now reluctantly engaging in a media blitz,
both to raise money for his legal defense through Rally.org and to boost
awareness of the grim nature of the surveillance state. When asked what he
was doing differently with his computing habits to protect his
communications, Levison offered an answer that?s becoming all too familiar
from people of his ilk: he wanted to keep it at least some of it a secret.

Michael Phillips is an associate at a Wall Street litigation firm. Matt
Buchanan is the editor of Elements.

Photograph by Mauricio Alejo.


From spike66 at att.net  Wed Oct  9 13:55:10 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 06:55:10 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8Rwbi2RF4rAVsn7hiK0rgUHYnr3aP6S35ZYxG3Qz6YvuWsg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.41.1381233248.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <24B7EFB7-3E41-4C1F-B12D-5BC8AD5A6B4A@me.com>
 <00e501cec43d$e0f736b0$a2e5a410$@att.net>
 <CAPy8Rwbi2RF4rAVsn7hiK0rgUHYnr3aP6S35ZYxG3Qz6YvuWsg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <018901cec4f7$2c6e5ec0$854b1c40$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Kelly Anderson
Subject: Re: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)

 

On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 9:48 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

Indeed sir.  ObamaCare has created more distrust in society than I have seen
in my lifetime.  I predict catastrophic failure of the whole venture.

 

I'll second that. However, it will take a long time for the Democrats to
acknowledge it as a failure. They still haven't acknowledged their past
failures in similar redistribution of wealth schemes. In fact, they point at
these failures as their greatest successes. It boggles the mind.

 

-Kelly

 

One of the things that went wrong I can see already.  The Healthcare.gov
site is a place to gather information, an insurance shopping mall.  It has
been down since it opened on 1 October, but I kept trying.  This morning I
get thru for the first time.  The very first thing they do is ask a bunch of
questions confirming my identity, such as three security questions which
made me squirm, then immediately went about trying to verify my identity,
asking my full legal name, first, middle, and last, my address, my social
security number, everything they need to do identity theft.  They want my
social security number which is actually a tax ID number, linked to the
outfit which has been visiting Tea Party members with an audit team as soon
as they can be identified.  They do this while claiming to not be
politically motivated.  They want this sent over an open link which can be
read by the NSA and shared with anyone they want.  

 

The former head of the IRS recently lied to congress, which is illegal as
all hell, by saying she did nothing illegal when email shows she did, then
invoked the fifth amendment and left the courtroom.  So we are to dump all
this personal information into a site run by the government?  Indeed?  What
happened to setting up a site where we can shop our healthcare options?  Is
this that?  Last time I went to the shopping mall, they didn't ask for my
tax ID or ask any personal questions.  If the system is supposed to require
the exchanges to sell you insurance regardless of pre-existing conditions,
why do they even need to know all this stuff?

 

This system is so doomed to fail, even while they threaten to shut down the
government if it does not get implemented this year.

 

spike

 

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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 14:18:54 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 10:18:54 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFgE0f5kyRhCwAueTmD9FsbFh=CT8XA55vSNMogJFc2D_w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv0yhTD4HE8aXkDOYtkwr01-W0RLdKXB-BXON2Wwks_9SA@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519BAF.7020308@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv2NBUnG3t+oCP1YTpX4zc=h8+L=+BAzf2F7BYnXpZeLnA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFgE0f5kyRhCwAueTmD9FsbFh=CT8XA55vSNMogJFc2D_w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2fy9d=TSE9fk=ABq6N8HmNViGmnLtO6oEuNHwN1JCX5g@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 1:11 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com
> wrote:

> You need to take into account the damage introduced during mechanical
> slicing. Even a single bad slice (torn, crushed, happens all the time, as
> anybody who spent hours at a microtome can attest) could scramble the
> long-distance fibers
>

I'm no expert but just from my experience of using a meat slicer I would
think mangled slices could be a problem if you were trying to make the
slices super thin, but I'm talking about slices on the order of a
centimeter thick or maybe even more, and only about a dozen slices. And if
the blade was sharp and the gap between the slices narrow it should be
possible to deduce what those long-distance fibers did in that missing gap.
And whatever method was used wouldn't slices ensure better distribution of
cryoprotective or chemical fixative than entire uncut brains? Wouldn't
better preservation of well over 99% of the brain be worth the slight loss
of tissue from the gaps between the few slices? I would think so but as I
say I'm no expert and am just asking questions.

  John K Clark
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From ALONZOTG at verizon.net  Wed Oct  9 14:46:35 2013
From: ALONZOTG at verizon.net (Alan Grimes)
Date: Wed, 09 Oct 2013 10:46:35 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <9B616DA5-75FC-4D60-9CEF-92C7A256E2E2@me.com>
References: <mailman.46.1381294653.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <9B616DA5-75FC-4D60-9CEF-92C7A256E2E2@me.com>
Message-ID: <52556C4B.4010600@verizon.net>

Omar Rahman wrote:
> As we move towards an existence as information in a machine a process 
> for 'negotiating protocols' and 'maintaining backward compatibility' 
> needs to be designed. 

Speak for yourself, asshole.

-- 
NOTICE: NEW E-MAIL ADDRESS, SEE ABOVE

Powers are not rights.



From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 15:38:06 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 08:38:06 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Meditations on the million year mind.
In-Reply-To: <5254E22B.9000508@verizon.net>
References: <5254E22B.9000508@verizon.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTm0sE_wz2nd-WVyvCnhwgXcaNDDUe=A7uk3+viC1fs9Q@mail.gmail.com>

A couple thoughts:

As is, the human brain forgets over time, preserving only those memories it
deems important.  Perhaps that is its way of dealing with living for a
longer time than it can store?  There are eidetic memories, but they are an
exception - and perhaps an order of magnitude better at storing info, such
that they could store every detail over half a century vs. the average
human's half a decade (or so) of moments.  Still inadequate for 5,000
years, but a similar technique could be adopted.

Cryonics/plastination is a gamble, in case uploading (or coalescence, as
you suggest) is not available before we die.  Not all gambles pay off - but
not all gambles don't.
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From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Oct  9 15:56:25 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 17:56:25 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Meditations on the million year mind.
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTm0sE_wz2nd-WVyvCnhwgXcaNDDUe=A7uk3+viC1fs9Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <5254E22B.9000508@verizon.net>
 <CALAdGNTm0sE_wz2nd-WVyvCnhwgXcaNDDUe=A7uk3+viC1fs9Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131009155625.GJ10405@leitl.org>

On Wed, Oct 09, 2013 at 08:38:06AM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:

> Cryonics/plastination is a gamble, in case uploading (or coalescence, as
> you suggest) is not available before we die.  Not all gambles pay off - but

We all are playing one game: russian roulette. The outcome for
that is certain: information-theoretic death. Several people
on this list, who all hoped that uploading will become available
are now carbon dioxide. Frankly, you're next. Nobody has made
out of here alive, yet.

If you want to improve your chances, help support policy and
methods which allow you to evade that fate. Unless you're 
actually doing research in animal scanning and modelling, 
godspeed with that.

> not all gambles don't.


From spike66 at att.net  Wed Oct  9 16:16:53 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 09:16:53 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Meditations on the million year mind.
In-Reply-To: <20131009155625.GJ10405@leitl.org>
References: <5254E22B.9000508@verizon.net>
 <CALAdGNTm0sE_wz2nd-WVyvCnhwgXcaNDDUe=A7uk3+viC1fs9Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131009155625.GJ10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <022d01cec50a$f8dd98a0$ea98c9e0$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl

>...We all are playing one game: russian roulette...

We should come up with a new name for that game.  Commie crap shoot?  While
we are at it, we need a name for the practice of opting out of health
insurance, paying the tax penalty and hoping for the best, which still
externalizes risk onto the other tax payers.  Suggestions welcome, extra
credit for alliteration, such as Capitalist Coinflip or American Insecurity.


>... The outcome for that is certain: information-theoretic death. Several
people on this list, who all hoped that uploading will become available are
now carbon dioxide. Frankly, you're next...

Oh now that's just cold.  Adrian is a young healthy guy, a perfect example
of the kind of person who will weigh the cost of health insurance vs the
price of the tax penalty for not having it, then opt out.

We get your point however.  Many of even the young and healthy among us will
be taking the nitrogen dive or the dirt nap some time in the next 50 years.
I can show you examples of space hardware that hasn't changed at all in the
past 50 years, stuff that is part of missile guidance systems that have been
proven to work, so they don't mess with them.  It is too easy to imagine
those bits will still be exactly the same 50 yrs from now.  In that way, we
aerospace types get a feel for how long it takes for some revolutions.  I am
reminded of a line from a song by the Eagles "...things in this life change
very slowly if they ever change at all..."

Cryonics appears to me to be the best shot we have now, but I am open to
suggestion if someone has an alternative.

spike





From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Wed Oct  9 15:44:37 2013
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Wed, 09 Oct 2013 11:44:37 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Positive yield in nuclear fusion
Message-ID: <201310091634.r99GYDjq014721@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

<http://www.llnl.gov/news/newsreleases/2013/Aug/NR-13-08-04.html>

"The yield was significantly greater than the 
energy deposited in the hot spot by the implosion."

I am cautiously delighted. For the importance of 
this milestone. For how long it's been coming.

And because it's in the family. This was achieved at LLNL.

? Where the competing approach, magnetic fusion, 
had been pioneered by my mother's boyfriend when 
I was a kid. Which I was part of for five years 
at the National Magnetic Fusion Energy Computer Center.

? In a project led by our former pediatrician's husband.

Hot damn. So to speak.


-- David.




From spike66 at att.net  Wed Oct  9 17:37:58 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 10:37:58 -0700
Subject: [ExI] nondestructive uploading of sorts
Message-ID: <007c01cec516$4bd8b9d0$e38a2d70$@att.net>

 

>.Frankly, you're next.

 

We are a looooong long ways from true uploading.  Even the very young among
us are unlikely to live to see that.  But we could likely do some kinda
fakey pseudo-uploading which could be a great toy, and will make a buttload
of money for whoever gets it to the market.  

 

Those of us who have children often crack up when our five year old comes up
with some saying that we know they learned from us, some quirky mannerism
perhaps or odd spike-ism.  Example: Saturday my seven year old son's
playmate did a fully splayed flying pancake into the dirt.  I didn't see it,
but we noticed he was dusty from knees to chin.  I said "This must have been
some fall, huh?"  My son popped up with "Ja, it was quite spectacular."  He
used the same accent and mannerism I use when I make those kinds of
comments.

 

So now we have these computers with cameras, and they can read what we write
and listen to what we say, taking digital samples of our voice as we talk on
Skype and so forth.  We can imagine a kinda-sorta uploading where the
computer imitates our style using our digitally recorded voices and our
image on the screen.  Using only current technology, we might be able to rig
something that feels like we are visiting with our digital selves.  Clearly
that is a form of nondestructive uploading in a very loose sense, a toy
version of it anyway.  

 

We would know it isn't really uploading, for uploading requires
machine-based or artificial intelligence.  The universal rule is that any
algorithm which we can understand is not artificial intelligence.  If we
don't understand something, then it is magic.  We know true intelligence is
ineffable, incomprehensible, magic.  So if we can understand it, it is
comprehensible and thus becomes not magic, therefore it isn't intelligence,
and isn't uploading.

 

Someday we may figure out how neurons actually work and how they work
together.  Then the workings of the brain become at least theoretically
comprehensible, and therefore less magic and less intelligent.  So the more
we learn, the dumber we get.  If we figure it out completely, then we may
eventually discover what I have already begun to suspect: that we are
stupid.

 

I could imagine using the above toy with our parents and grandparents, so
that after they are gone, we could have a better-than-nothing Eliza-ish
"discussion" of sorts with their avatar.  

 

Would that be cool or what?  

 

{8-]

 

spike

 

 

 

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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 18:59:56 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 11:59:56 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Meditations on the million year mind.
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB63a-4_ztrU1vWYOb3z-GY50Si6yyTZ2Qy2n4aOxdH45A@mail.gmail.com>

From: Alan Grimes <ALONZOTG at verizon.net>

> om

> Tonite I feel like mumbling incoherently about how you would go about
> engineering a mind to last a million years. The problem is much less
> trivial than it would first appear

And very possibly more immediate.

Consider widespread uploading by mid century and million to one
speedup.  That means by the end of the calendar century, some people
could have 50 million subjective years of existence.

> because the main issue is to maintain
> a youthful learning capacity even when memories spanning thousands of
> years are already stored.


I don't know that "learning" will have the same meaning after
uploading.  You need a new skill, you just load it like we load
programs today.

It's gonna get weird.

Keith


From spike66 at att.net  Wed Oct  9 18:46:01 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 11:46:01 -0700
Subject: [ExI] id theft in o-care
Message-ID: <010801cec51f$cdfb0040$69f100c0$@att.net>

 

It took me nine days, but this morning for the first time I was able to get
thru to where I could shop around in the new healthcare exchanges.  Up to
now, they have been posting absurdities such as "The System is down for the
moment."  The moment is eight solid days as of last night.  But in any case,
I got in this morning, and they immediately began wanting all kinds of
personal information, social security number, phone number, home address,
income, all this stuff that looks to me like a recipe for disaster if I
provide it.  All several thousand government employees who could have access
to this could do identity theft on me, or sell the info to others who would
do it.

 

Note that I am not buying anything, but rather I want to put in a
theoretical state I might move to in the future, so I want to shop prices.
They ask for my home address, and they direct me to the California
exchanges.  What about those who are shopping for a future home?  If I want
to learn about a theoretical future state, do I need to put in a theoretical
future address?  

 

I don't want that outfit knowing who I am or what I estimate my future
income will be.  Can I give them a theoretical name, a really obvious
made-up pseudonym such as Fester N. Carbuncle?  They ask for my legal name,
first, middle and last, as would be shown on a legal document.  So if I just
want to shop around and not buy anything yet but just for planning purposes
I go in with SNN 111 11 1111 under the name Barf McBuns to avoid identity
theft, is that identity theft?

 

I don't want to mess with the IRS.  They are in charge of enforcing O-Care,
the outfit that recently demonstrated they can commit felonies without
consequences.

 

spike

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From msd001 at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 19:11:37 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 15:11:37 -0400
Subject: [ExI] nondestructive uploading of sorts
In-Reply-To: <007c01cec516$4bd8b9d0$e38a2d70$@att.net>
References: <007c01cec516$4bd8b9d0$e38a2d70$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdb+Pk8WBmt2LL7QUAg43YVnh7w3cnc2LcOFYBzKHpkh3Eg@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 1:37 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> So now we have these computers with cameras, and they can read what we
> write and listen to what we say, taking digital samples of our voice as we
> talk on Skype and so forth.  We can imagine a kinda-sorta uploading where
> the computer imitates our style using our digitally recorded voices and our
> image on the screen.  Using only current technology, we might be able to
> rig something that feels like we are visiting with our digital selves.
> Clearly that is a form of nondestructive uploading in a very loose sense, a
> toy version of it anyway.
>


> **
>
> **
>
> I could imagine using the above toy with our parents and grandparents, so
> that after they are gone, we could have a better-than-nothing Eliza-ish
> ?discussion? of sorts with their avatar.
>
 Doesn't skype already let you wear digital adornments like hats or silly
glasses?  (i know google hangouts played with that)

So at some point the digital adornment is your whole presentable face.
 This will let you "answer" the call (even if you are answering the call,
eh?)  regardless of whether your hair/makeup is done (or undone).  People
won't expect your 'real' presence because the facade is more polite or
professional.  Then you'll have so many macros built (on the fly) to handle
the common expressions or answers you use that your knowledge agent /
representative will be able to handle the preamble smalltalk before you
even accept the call  (because we're all so busy we don't make time for the
smalltalk) It'll also fill in those gaps where you fall asleep during the
boring parts of a call or optionally (probably for a small fee) feign
interest in the other party (fee schedule probably extorts higher rates
depending on how much you were supposed to be caring about this other party)

Eventually your digital representation will be able to make calls for you
to extract the information you wanted from others who probably were going
to let their digital representation handle the requests for them too.  Our
isolation from each other will be complete - while maintaining the illusion
that everyone we might want to contact is 100% available for us 24x7.

Maybe then we'll learn how to be physically present and listening to each
other for the sheer novelty of the experience.
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 19:16:05 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 12:16:05 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Human Brain Project kicks off today
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB4NB+sRyaMR7ydD8Fs58mOO1ekYttON57EuJX4yh+ONYg@mail.gmail.com>

> From: Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>

> How many Eugens could you fit in the head of a pin (make it a sphere
> 3/16 inch diameter)?

27 years ago Eric Drexler worked this out and got around a 10 cm cube
"volume of a coffee cup" for a human capacity hardware.  With enough
power and cooling it would run a million times faster than a meat
state human.

It's in Engines of Creation.

Keith


From msd001 at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 19:26:32 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 15:26:32 -0400
Subject: [ExI] id theft in o-care
In-Reply-To: <010801cec51f$cdfb0040$69f100c0$@att.net>
References: <010801cec51f$cdfb0040$69f100c0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbJHD61vF+2Sq-mJhzui=Yr7VPp9YsDx+573xyozRMFtEw@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 2:46 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
> **
>
> **
>
> I don?t want that outfit knowing who I am or what I estimate my future
> income will be.  Can I give them a theoretical name, a really obvious
> made-up pseudonym such as Fester N. Carbuncle?  They ask for my legal name,
> first, middle and last, as would be shown on a legal document.  So if I
> just want to shop around and not buy anything yet but just for planning
> purposes I go in with SNN 111 11 1111 under the name Barf McBuns to avoid
> identity theft, is that identity theft?****
>
> **
>

No, of course that's not identity theft; it's identity creation!  It's the
same way banks use the reserve ratio for "wealth creation."

**
>
> I don?t want to mess with the IRS.  They are in charge of enforcing
> O-Care, the outfit that recently demonstrated they can commit felonies
> without consequences.
>

 Shh, they have friends in NSA who are reading this right now.  You may
have already been messing with them.
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From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Oct  9 19:31:35 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 21:31:35 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Meditations on the million year mind.
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB63a-4_ztrU1vWYOb3z-GY50Si6yyTZ2Qy2n4aOxdH45A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB63a-4_ztrU1vWYOb3z-GY50Si6yyTZ2Qy2n4aOxdH45A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131009193135.GV10405@leitl.org>

On Wed, Oct 09, 2013 at 11:59:56AM -0700, Keith Henson wrote:

> I don't know that "learning" will have the same meaning after
> uploading.  You need a new skill, you just load it like we load
> programs today.

This implies having a common encoding layer (something like
language, only for function), or at least one can easily translate 
into. Starting with biology, due to wide structure diversity and
no apparent homology at low signal layers it appears to be difficult
to even translate for different substrates. It's not obvious how
the result would have detectable homologies, without having
an effective monoclone with minor diffs, which is a pathological,
and quite useless case. So maybe no "I know Kung Fu". And if
you can do fast-forward unconscious learning, why waste that
time by editing memory?


From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Oct  9 19:37:08 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 21:37:08 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Human Brain Project kicks off today
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB4NB+sRyaMR7ydD8Fs58mOO1ekYttON57EuJX4yh+ONYg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB4NB+sRyaMR7ydD8Fs58mOO1ekYttON57EuJX4yh+ONYg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131009193708.GW10405@leitl.org>

On Wed, Oct 09, 2013 at 12:16:05PM -0700, Keith Henson wrote:
> > From: Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>
> 
> > How many Eugens could you fit in the head of a pin (make it a sphere
> > 3/16 inch diameter)?
> 
> 27 years ago Eric Drexler worked this out and got around a 10 cm cube
> "volume of a coffee cup" for a human capacity hardware.  With enough
> power and cooling it would run a million times faster than a meat
> state human.

Nanosystems uses an engineering analysis based on diamond rod logic.
Deliberately conservatively, in order to be easy analyzable. There
are a few problematic assumptions there as well. So it is an answer,
but not an exhaustive one.

We now pretty much know that nothing exactly like that will be built.
There are alternatives, but they're not easy to analyze, and it's
really hard to estimate how well a particular computational model
(of which many parts are yet unknown) is mapping to a different substrate.
Once we have living critters in EFlops systems we can make a much
better estimate.
 
> It's in Engines of Creation.


From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Oct  9 20:11:09 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 22:11:09 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Cryonics and Immortality Visionary: An Interview with Stephen
 Valentine of Timeship
Message-ID: <20131009201109.GZ10405@leitl.org>


http://hplusmagazine.com/2013/10/09/cryonics-and-immortality-visionary-an-interview-with-stephen-valentine-of-timeship/ 

Cryonics and Immortality Visionary: An Interview with Stephen Valentine of
Timeship

By: Christine Gaspar

Published: October 9, 2013

Set in the hot, Tuscany-like rolling hills of Comfort, Texas, northwest of
San Antonio, is a project that is one of sciences? best kept secrets,
although it really isn?t a secret. On a 646 acre property, formerly known as
the Bildarth Estate, lays the hopes and dreams of the creators of Timeship.

Timeship has been dubbed the ?Fort Knox? of cryopreservation. Its plans are
magnificent, and include a 6 acre structure designed to become the first bio
bank for long term storage that will include organs and tissue for
transplantation, materials to support fertility, tissue for regenerative
medicine- DNA, including the DNA of near extinct species, and whole mammalian
organisms including humans after legal death for whom all medical procedures
have failed. Much thought and love has been put into the design of this
project. It not only serves as a functional masterpiece of planning, but it
will also be a beautiful testament to man?s quest for immortality. Stephen
Valentine, the project?s creator and architect, has filled this structure
with rich symbolism and a beauty that will stand out as a beacon of our
collective history and vision of a promising future for humanity. Mr.
Valentine has also been meticulous in planning the structure to last
centuries. It is designed to protect its contents from human and natural
threats of many kinds.

Who Is Steve Valentine?

On researching for this interview, I found a wealth of information on this
accomplished man. Stephen Valentine is a world renowned architect who resides
in New York City, though originally from Norwood, Massachusetts. For more
than three decades, Valentine has contributed to the design of major
commercial and institutional projects worldwide. He was concept architect for
a proposed new Long Island Railroad Station in New York City, located next to
the historic Grand Central Terminal. At I. M. Pei and Partners, he served as
a senior architect for partner James Ingo Freed?s highly acclaimed United
States Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C., and New York?s Javits
Center, which is the world?s largest space-frame structure. He was a senior
architect for the Hong Kong Convention Center; the landmark structure that
was the site for the transfer of governmental authority from the United
Kingdom to the People?s Republic of China in 1997. During his tenure as
president and design director for the New York office of the Japanese firm
Mirai International, Valentine led the design team for Superparadise, a
multi-billion dollar environmental science exposition park and habitat
located outside Tokyo. He also was a member of a select team of international
architects commissioned to design a master plan for the future development of
the sacred city of Hangzhou, China, with a population of three million
inhabitants. A graduate of Pratt Institute and recipient of the AIA School
Medal, Valentine taught at Pratt Institute for more than a decade and has
lectured to university groups, professional organizations, and governmental
associations throughout the world. Mr. Valentine was approached in the late
nineties by Saul Kent, to create plans for a facility to support the works of
the Stasis Foundation. At the time he had not yet chosen the site for this
facility. Mr. Kent wanted this building to withstand the test of time and
operate continuously for at least 100 years- something no building to date
had accomplished. They called it Timeship.


It was my privilege to recently interview Mr. Valentine. I have been waiting
in anticipation to hear about Timeship?s progress for years, and am very
curious about the man and the project he is creating.

Q: What inspired you to create this project? Please tell us about its
origins.  A: Saul Kent, my client, was once asked by the New Yorker magazine
?Why build Timeship?? Saul?s answer was that Timeship was part of a
comprehensive plan to conquer aging and death. As the architect and project
designer of Timeship, I realized from the beginning that the ideas of
Timeship were both extremely optimistic and dependent on future technologies.
I often wondered if these advances would ever be realized. Who could have
guessed that in the last century, the many human achievements and discoveries
made could be summarized so neatly as to say that the perception of who we
are in the universe, what we want to be, and where we are going has changed
so radically? More importantly, the year 2000, a milestone in time, and more
importantly in science, came to be, marking the time when we were able to map
the human genome. Prominent scientists are now predicting that the 21st
century will be known as the Century of Immortality.

 

Q: What has the timeline been like?  A: In 1997 the initial concept design
for Timeship was completed, but put on hold for a few years. The science of
cryopreservation wasn?t developed sufficiently to start such a project. In
2000 an advanced method of vitrification of mammalian organs was developed,
allowing for their cryopreservation while minimizing damage to cells by ice
crystals. In 2001 Timeship?s plans were brought back to the table as a result
of this breakthrough. In 2003, the successful transplant of a mammalian
kidney that was cryopreserved then rewarmed to body temperature took place.
In 2007 the site to build Timeship was purchased. It has since been announced
in 2011 as the former Bildarth Estate, in Comfort Texas.  In 2007 a patent
was issued for the advanced engineered cooling system called the TCV, or
Temperature Controlled Volume Units, designed to complement vitrification. It
is the most advanced method to date to allow for cooling with precise
temperature controls, to reduce the incidence of fracturing during the
cryopreservation process. In late 2009, the award winning book, TIMESHIP: The
Architecture of Immortality, was released. It outlined the concepts and
design of this building.

The year 2012 brought us to the point where we are currently working on
extensive renovations of the estate buildings and upgrading its
infrastructure. A comprehensive Master Plan for the construction of Timeship
and its supporting facilities are in progress and should be completed in
2014. Plans for the TCV (Temperature Controlled Volume) advanced cryogenic
storage research building will be developed in the coming year.

Q: Tell us more about the facility and its property. Can you elaborate on its
features?

A: My goal was to integrate a bold symbolic vision with optimal
functionality. I wanted to make this facility and its property the epitome of
beauty and careful design. Timeship will be a scientific mecca for life
extension research. Our plans include the cryopreservation of the DNA of both
humans and endangered animal species. We will serve as a major research
center for the cryopreservation of organs for transplantation, including
bioengineered organs for which there is currently no real method of storage,
and of course, thousands of human patients who wish to travel to the future.
The facility makes use of sacred geometry to include symbolic themes of birth
and re-birth as demonstrated throughout history. I believe that anyone
encountering this building should experience these concepts viscerally. The
building will enclose 700,000 square feet, some of it underground, and will
cost about $375 million. Much thought and planning has gone into its security
both from natural and man-made threats. The property will also include a
place for guests to stay when they visit, as well as conference facilities.
There will also be land within the research park for other biotech companies.


Timeship will be a very efficient energy consumer, using alternative
renewable energy for its power as well as remaining on the grid of two
independent energy sources. These alternate energy sources may include
geomagmatic devices to draw electricity from ground heat as well as
photovoltaic cells to gather solar energy. There will be emergency backup
energy onsite in the form of liquid nitrogen (LN2) to allow it to continue to
function for months in the event of serious disruption.

Our design team partnered with security consultants to incorporate the best
and most efficient security measures possible throughout all phases of
Timeship?s construction. Obviously I can?t elaborate too much, but I can say
that we used the best medieval and modern strategies in planning and
constructing this facility. The medieval features ensure that the building
will be secure even if the electricity goes out. The location was chosen to
minimize the risk of violent weather damaging or disrupting the facility.
Much care was taken to learn from our collective history and plan for short,
mid and long range human made threats as well, gleaned from historical fact
and likely future trends.

I specifically chose this location in 2007 for many reasons. Comfort, Texas,
in the San Antonio region is very welcoming and open to the idea of
attracting a scientific community similar to the region of Silicon Valley in
California. The area is relatively free of potential natural disasters that
may make other areas less suitable. This location is also near two major
airports, to facilitate the rapid transport of patients and organs for
cryopreservation. It is located fifty miles from a major metropolitan area in
a place that would be attractive for researchers and other professionals to
live. The quality of life for Timeship staff was considered as seriously as
the security of the location. The property is a beautiful expanse of rolling
hills very similar in appearance to Tuscany, Italy. It took five years and a
lot of careful attention to select the best property and location for this
project and I am very happy with the results.

Q: What kinds of challenges have you faced along the way?

A: Every step of this process has been challenging in that the greatest of
care and attention has been paid to the details of this project. Timeship is
a massive undertaking and is being planned and built to last for centuries.
No aspect of it can be rushed or miscalculated. It is important that our
timing and how our infrastructure is rolled out be deliberate and meets the
demanding standards I have placed for it.

Q: Have there been any recent developments that you would like to discuss?

A: We had a major breakthrough with receiving the patent for the TCV system
in 2007. We are currently onsite doing the renovations to the estate
infrastructure that are necessary to build this project. One square mile has
been set aside for the comprehensive Master Plan for the location at the site
of the first phase of the project. This includes the TCV Research and
Assembly Building. Boots are on the ground as we speak.

Q: What kinds of resources do you need to accomplish this goal? How can we
support your mission?

A: We are always looking for exceptionally creative and technical expertise.
Timeship is a serious, large scale operation and it will always be looking
for the best talent to add to its pool of resources. From an advisory
perspective, contributions from the brightest thinkers in transhumanism, life
extension and cryonics are always welcome. As Timeship evolves and its needs
change, it will always be in search of assistance on some level. It is
important now that we not only continue to move forward with its development
as we share Timeship?s promise with the world.

?What can surpass the pyramids of Egypt as a symbol of the strength of
mankind?s reach for immortality? Today, Timeship is founded on the bedrock of
science rather than merely the symbols observed in the natural world.
Ultimately, history may judge the impact of Timeship as more profound than
that of the pyramids on the ultimate fate of the human species.?

?Michael D. West, PhD

 

 

### For more information, you can visit http://www.timeship.org or purchase
Valentine?s award winning book.

References:

http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2004/01/19/040119fa_fact_wilkinson

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xcrypt_timeship-the-architecture-of-immort_tech

http://www.timeship.org

Timeship: The Architecture of Immortality by Stephen Valentine, 2009

See also:
http://hplusmagazine.com/2013/02/21/ben-bova-bumps-timeship-life-extension-center/


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 20:14:53 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 14:14:53 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?
In-Reply-To: <20131001121829.GR10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAJPayv1=z+Zhoq9OWo7S5KCowPWK4SQ+92ZVZQ2AB5gVn6wGcQ@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAPy8Rwbbb2pzn0xFQ=ytkVj3UAASS5HOiB4Uk+=4Oui7RHCEDQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Oct 1, 2013 at 6:18 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

Infrastructure work is not an idea, or a mobile app. Look at the
> last time we did it. Try ordering a synfuel plant on Amazon.
>

Uh, my brother is currently building a synfuel plant for Sasol in
Louisiana. He had three bidders competing to build it. It is not "off the
shelf" by any means, but no large chemical plant is. You can't buy any
chemical plant on Amazon.

-Kelly
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From rtomek at ceti.pl  Wed Oct  9 20:22:25 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 22:22:25 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZ+SauZe2bh5zOL7F07K6Lw13f8mhd=NvbuzEytFWSfoA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1310092115590.17552@tau.ceti.pl>

On Mon, 7 Oct 2013, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> On Mon, Oct 7, 2013 at 2:44 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> 
[...]
> > This assumes two things: that the tide is still rising, and that
> > some boats are not sinking. None of these assumptions hold water
> > on a closer look. Blub.
> 
> 
> I believe that the tide is rising. Yes, there is more concentration of
> wealth, but overall wealth is still rising. The technological tide is
> clearly still rising. Once again, are you predicting peak human creativity
> Eugen? I think you won't find any allies on that front here.

Depends. If by "ally" you mean a clone of Eugen, this will have to wait a 
decade or two to be feasable.

I think it can be said that creativity is a function of surplus energy 
available. And surplus time. But the dependence seems to be a bit more 
complicated than linear. And BTW, there are different kinds of creativity 
- judging by content typed into internet by billions of monkeys, it goes 
every direction. Judging by contents of contemporary movies, we are 
already in deep crisis - the mean density of intellectual content is 
dropping down like dead bird, at least this is how I see it. If what we 
see is really what people want to see, we are dead man walking.

Then there are brain limitations. No matter how much pot the 
"creativators" smoke, their brains are still able to operate only 5-9 
elements at the same time, if I'm not mistaken. BTW there are similar 
limits in other areas, like the number of buddies one can comfortably have 
relations with (about few hundreds people AFAIR, so when you have full 
house and meet someone new, you will have to remove someone else to 
include her into your circles). Likewise, there is a limit of program size 
which individual can successfully maintain (writing is just a function of 
time, almost linear, but maintainance is PITA, perhaps 2^nlines). Some are 
good enough to care of OS kernel, some can take care of a browser, but the 
limit is there, and good luck if you want to pass it.

So, the space of the problems individuals are able to solve seems to be 
limited. Say, if it's a function of type n^x, where x is the said 
short-term memory capacity and n is some constant natural number, like 2. 
In such case, there is vast difference in problem solving capacity between 
people having x=5 and x=9. But there is scarce number of people exceeding 
9, if any.

Once the limits are approached, there should be visible increase of 
problem solving cost, in terms of time (and maybe some other factors) 
invested. In fact, the current "groupisation" of research teams may be a 
hint supporting the claim that it is already happening. This will only 
slightly help. Adding new people increases intragroup communications. And 
if every member needs to be aware of those communications, it eats 
increasingly bigger time to be aware what others are doing vs doing 
oneself. Making groups smaller only slightly helps. There are some tricks 
to be played but I don't think they will reverse the trend.

So, I would rather say, we managed to go quite far. But this has to slow 
down and halt eventually. Unless radical brain improvements get into the 
game. Without them, slow and halt. It doesn't matter if one is optimistic 
about humanity' abilities or otherwise. Math is orthogonal to optimism.

Anyway, creativity is not a new product. Falsebook is not creativity. New 
cell phone is not creativity. Neither is Tesla car, even though solving 
some technical difficulties could have required creativity. Fusion is. 
Fuel cell beating current best is. As far as I can tell, Nicola Tesla
was creative. Hollywood uses the word but doesn't know the meaning. 
Creativity is not about increasing sales (well, it is in some way, but not 
really the same level as scientific breakthrough). You can define your own 
version of "creativity" and in such case you are free to enjoy every 
optimistic conclusion that follows.

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 20:24:18 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 14:24:18 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Middle Class Doomed?
In-Reply-To: <20130930140223.GY10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAPy8RwasHpMTgJJLdbq1_R2Rw0RDAH+udo_Fd5b=WW5ddLhBKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130930140223.GY10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwaHUkmAFGQwMgCh-E6FepcCX_TJQhOad=C2ppcThw3n6A@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Sep 30, 2013 at 8:02 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Mon, Sep 30, 2013 at 07:29:34AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
> > I believe that incomes almost always follow a power curve, with a few
>
> Depends on the country. It's not a natural law.
>

Can you provide an example of a country where income does not approximately
follow a power curve. Please be specific and have some kind of numbers to
back it up please.


> > people making a lot of money, and a lot of people making a little bit of
> > money. The best one can hope for is that the curve isn't too "corner
> > hugging" and that there is a robust middle class. That seems like pretty
> > simple economics to me.
>
> The only simple thing about economics is that it's an academical
> fairy-tale.
> When many grown men believe into fairy tales, bad things happen.
>

Much of economics is based on intelligent fully informed perfect agents,
which is a fairy tale.

> so why, and whether other forces might be at play beyond technological
> > improvements that make "the rich richer, the poor poorer", which is
> another
> > way of saying that the curve above is too "corner hugging".
>
> There are two major factors mentioned: loss of cheap plentiful energy
> (by adaptive increase in numbers of consumers and also consumption per
> individual), and soon scarcity in other material supply, and globalization.
> Loss of special snowflake status is hard to take. No doubt there are
> several other factors I'm missing.
>

I haven't noticed that energy prices are skyrocketing. They are going up,
but it doesn't seem like they are going up as fast as say the cost of a
college education, or the cost of health insurance.

Scarcity is something that mostly exists in theory, not yet in practice.

I do thing globalization is killing the middle class. No doubt about that.

Special snowflake status could be applied to the entire United States. It's
part of the Copernican revolution that the US is not the center of the
universe. So I can't disagree with that at all.

-Kelly
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From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Oct  9 20:33:47 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 22:33:47 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8Rwbbb2pzn0xFQ=ytkVj3UAASS5HOiB4Uk+=4Oui7RHCEDQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1Ff=0hBOKD5jPRcSLHBrAcy7dLZ4_wOBiEv3QjXVzgmA@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAPy8Rwbbb2pzn0xFQ=ytkVj3UAASS5HOiB4Uk+=4Oui7RHCEDQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131009203347.GA10405@leitl.org>

On Wed, Oct 09, 2013 at 02:14:53PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> On Tue, Oct 1, 2013 at 6:18 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> 
> Infrastructure work is not an idea, or a mobile app. Look at the
> > last time we did it. Try ordering a synfuel plant on Amazon.
> >
> 
> Uh, my brother is currently building a synfuel plant for Sasol in
> Louisiana. He had three bidders competing to build it. It is not "off the
> shelf" by any means, but no large chemical plant is. You can't buy any
> chemical plant on Amazon.

Look at the numbers below (budget, time of contruction, consider bottlenecks). 
Multiply by domestic (US) demand, including budget (US will default). Add matching 
renewable electricity capacity and water electrolysis instead of methane, because the
natural gas bonanza is fleeting. See that deployment rate, or budget
for that deployment rate? Nobody talks about these figures when talking
about PV, wind, or even nuke. 

http://mg.co.za/article/2013-09-20-00-sasol-cracks-major-us-fracking-deal 

Sasol cracks major US fracking deal

20 SEP 2013 00:00 LISA STEYN
  
A record-breaking multibillion-dollar investment will see the company cash in on the gas boom.
 
It?s a gas: Sasol has the technical know-how to cash in on the fracking boom. (Lucy Nicholson/Reuters)
A $20-billion investment in a facility in Louisiana, prompted by the North American shale boom, will be a world first in some respects.

It will be Sasol?s largest investment yet; the biggest single investment in Louisiana?s history; and the largest foreign direct investor manufacturing project in the history of the United States.

Sasol?s move to join the boom in hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, that is transforming the energy landscape in the US comes as the South African government prepares to grant the first prospecting licences here.

A Louisiana state official told the Mail & Guardian the project cannot start until all permits have been obtained from the department of environmental quality.

Part of the second-largest shale deposit in the US falls within the borders of the state. Louisiana is the second-largest natural gas-producing state after Texas.

Sasol?s investment will be to expand its existing facility, a chemicals plant, in Lake Charles, an industrial hub in Louisiana, where it will develop an ethane cracker and derivatives units, followed by a gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant.

Cracker project
The cracker project, with an estimated cost of between $5-billion and $7-billion, is expected to begin in 2017.

The cracker (a processing plant) will convert ethane, a constituent of natural gas, into ethylene (producing an estimated 1.5-million tonnes a year), which can be used to produce a wide range of chemical feedstock for products such as cool drink cans and detergents.

The gas-to-liquids plant, with an estimated cost of between $11-billion and $14-billion, will produce fuel from natural gas and other by-products.

Only Sasol and Shell have the proven technology to produce fuel from gas on such a large scale.

Sasol will not extract the gas itself but will buy it from suppliers in the area who use drilling and/or fracking.

Both projects are expected to have a significant economic spin-off for the state, worth an estimated $42.6-billion over the next 20 years.

Job creation
In an interview with the M&G, Sasol?s chief executive and executive director, David Constable, said that at the peak of the construction phase between 7?000 and 7?500 jobs will be created on site, after which between 12?000 and 15?000 permanent jobs, with an average annual salary of between $80?000 to $85?000, will be created.

The state of Louisiana will pay the company a special incentive of $257-million in grants, including giving it millions of dollars in tax breaks, a $20-million worker training facility and a $115-million payment to the company for land and infrastructure.

But the funding is not without contention. According to an article in a New Orleans daily paper, the Times Picayune, when the land and infrastructure payment is made in 2018 and 2019, state tax revenues will be negative ? which is according to the Louisiana Economic Development?s own projections, and will throw a spanner into the budgeting plan for those outlying years.

However, officials say the cumulative tax revenues will be positive. The report said it is expected that incentives will not be handed over to Sasol until the project begins to yield positive tax revenues to the state.

The state is also offering other incentives that Sasol will take advantage of. All in all, they could be north of $1-billion in total value over the life of the project, Sasol?s head of global chemicals and North American operations, Andr? de Ruyter, told the Engineering News.

Investment criteria
But it is the cheap gas, not the grants, that have convinced Sasol of the soundness of the investment.

?It is very nice, obviously,? Con?stable said. ?We have had great support from the state.?

However, he said, the project meets and exceeds Sasol?s investment criteria given a wide range of economic scenarios.

?We don?t need the incentive but [it] is appreciated and makes things much smoother.?

Most crackers run off other, more costly fossil fuels, so developing a gas-run cracker, at least at current low gas prices, would give any company the competitive edge.

?The cracker is a no-brainer,? said Guy Antoine, an investment analyst at Element Investment Managers, noting that the sell-side estimates of what this option is worth make it exceptionally worthwhile.

?The cracker can take that gas, turn it into chemicals and ultimately plastics ? the technology is so attractive because the capital outlay is less.

Energy landscape turned upside down
?The energy landscape in the US has been turned upside down,? Constable said. ?[The US] is in a very strong position right now and the manufacturing industry is coming back with a vengeance.?

Antoine said the only concern is that, because of the rush for petrochemical companies to build these plants, in future, there may be too much capacity.

Owen Ncomo, an executive partner at Inkunzi investments, said there is always a risk of capital costs rising.

?If the US dollar weakens and they have to import equipment, they risk the cost of the project rising.?

The gas-to-liquids plant is a riskier project should the gas price rise and the oil price drop, and analysts are divided over whether Sasol will recover the cost of building the plant.

The price differential between the oil and gas price is key for the project to succeed, Antoine said.

Oil prices
The difference spiked in early 2012 when oil prices shot up and natural gas prices fell to around $2 a mmBtu (million British thermal units) and the ratio was 1:30.

Currently, Brent crude oil is at $108 a barrel and natural gas is at 3.74 per mmBtu, a ratio of 1:28.8.

Sasol, Constable said, can afford for the ratio to go as low as 1:16.

Constable said the company expected ethane feedstock pricing to stay low over the next few decades and was also ?very comfortable with economics on the GTL plant?, although it requires a relatively low natural gas price and a relatively high oil diesel price.

?We also have value-add products off GTL which enhance the economics nicely ? analysts often miss that.?

The possibility of the oil price sinking and the natural gas price rising can never be ruled out as some believe the shale boom will be short-lived and, according to Antoine, the market expects oil to decline to $88 dollars a barrel.

Risky
?It is risky. You have to take a market view on what gas prices and oil [will be]. Gas prices have a higher historic volatility than oil prices do,? Antoine said.

Although Constable said the company sees the gas and oil prices staying above the 1:16 ratio in the long term, they have sought to de-risk the project further.

Shale assets in Canada owned by Sasol through a joint venture with Talisman acts as a ?natural hedge?, Constable said.

A high gas price could mean losses in the Louisiana facility but will be offset by profits made by fracking and selling gas in the north.

?If all goes well, which we expect ? it [the cracker] will be starting up in 2017,? Constable said. ?There is a very high probability of proceeding.?

Sasol has begun ordering equipment for the cracker and applications for an air permit and wetlands permit have been submitted.

Confidence
?We are confident we will receive the permits in January and April respectively. It?s going very well on that front. We have got a lot of support from the state and Washington ? it looks very good right now.?

The final investment decision on the gas-to-liquids plant will be taken 18 to 24 months after the cracker.

Constable said Sasol chose to phase in the projects to take care of the balance sheet and to make sure it had the right financial and human resources.

Sasol, with the use of its exclusive technology, is investing in a number of other gas-to-liquids offshore projects and, by the end of the decade, Constable said, it will be a much larger company, adding 70% to 75% more volumes for the group overall.

Sasol?s Oryx gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar is said to be performing exceptionally well and ran at 108% capacity in July.

This, Constable said, was proof that Sasol?s gas-to-liquids technology is fully commercialised and ready to be rolled out elsewhere in the world.

Not gaining traction
In Escravos, Nigeria, Sasol?s third gas-to-liquids plant is close to being commissioned and, in Uzbekistan, Sasol, as part of a joint venture, is in the final stages of planning a facility that will convert gas reserves into transport fuel.

But a coal-to-liquids plant in the Waterberg does not seem to be gaining much traction ? it is simply not as economically viable as the gas-to-liquids projects.

?The capital costs are much more, therefore the economics are much more challenging,? Constable said.

Coal-to-liquids plants need to be near a coal mine, and adequate water and infrastructure need to be in place.

Diversified risk
Coal to liquids requires a gasification process but using natural gas from the start removes that step and the costs associated with it.

Sasol?s investments offshore, and particularly the Lake Charles expansion, is ?absolutely positive,? Ncomo said. ?In my view they have diversified their risk.?

Antoine agreed: ?Sasol, since being privatised, have taken their proprietary technology and tried to monetise that.?

Constable said Sasol?s focus is in Southern Africa until 2050. ?We have a firm rooted in South Africa; we are not going anywhere.?

He said Sasol was keeping a close eye on the Karoo and the government?s interministerial committee on fracking.

The production of shale gas in South Africa ?would change the energy landscape in the region?, he said.

?That would drive more feedstock for our Sasolburg and Secunda plants, and we would look at gas to power plants too.?

He said Sasol would also be keen to get involved with the extraction if the water and other environmental challenges can be overcome.

Lisa Steyn is a business reporter at the Mail & Guardian.


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 20:37:25 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 14:37:25 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Middle Class Doomed?
In-Reply-To: <5249DC4C.3000903@aleph.se>
References: <CAPy8RwasHpMTgJJLdbq1_R2Rw0RDAH+udo_Fd5b=WW5ddLhBKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130930140223.GY10405@leitl.org> <5249DC4C.3000903@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZ8uhRdH49sNsx6fZuiqiP8JUHYrUYtoTS99M+tKQ+yog@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Sep 30, 2013 at 2:17 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2013-09-30 15:02, Eugen Leitl wrote:
>
>> On Mon, Sep 30, 2013 at 07:29:34AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>>
>>  I believe that incomes almost always follow a power curve, with a few
>>>
>> Depends on the country. It's not a natural law.
>>
>
> Whether it is a natural law is a good question, actually.


The folks at the Santa Fe Institute certainly seem to think that it is.
They are smart people, pursuing original lines of thinking, but it makes a
lot of sense to me.


> It is not just that power-law tails are found in all industrialised
> economies, but they seem to follow robustly from a lot of models too (e.g.
> http://arxiv.org/abs/condmat/**0002374<http://arxiv.org/abs/condmat/0002374>).


Do you happen to know what they mean by "distribution of wealth tends to be
very broadly distributed when exchanges are limited" Anders?


> One can of course quibble about whether it is really power law, lognormal
> or stretched exponential: http://arxiv.org/abs/1304.0212 - but the effect
> is the same.
>

Yes, it is only an approximation. But a pretty good one most of the time.


> Different countries have different exponents, so clearly the shape can be
> affected.


The question sort of comes down to this, "Is it always a good thing when
the exponent is adjusted so that the middle class is larger?"

It seems obvious, but perhaps it isn't so obvious. I'm not entirely sure,
but my gut says a healthy middle class is a good thing.


> But I suspect the overall wealth condensation effect is just due to the
> skew distribution of human ability and the winner-take-all properties of
> human attention: give everybody an equal amount of wealth, and very soon
> they will have given some of it to a few superstars who produce something
> everybody wants.


 What I'm seeing is that globalization, the Internet and dematerialization
are things that push the winner-take-all paradigm to levels that it hasn't
previously attained. For example, there can be only one lowest cost blender
at Walmart. Other slightly higher priced blender makers are therefore
pushed out of the market. That means that the blender maker that wins the
Walmart bid makes way more money, and the underbidder makes so much less
that they might even go out of business. That kind of winner-take-all thing
happens with web sites as well. Just look how hard it is for Bing to make
inroads against Google, despite spending tons of money to try. The way I
think of this is that there are natural monopolies. Or in other words,
monopolies are often the natural outcome of competition. Since monopolies
are bad in the end, (no competition leads to inevitably higher prices) we
try to keep them from forming. I should amend my normal anarchist stance
slightly to say that I approve of the government keeping the formation of
monopolies to a minimum. Even with that caveat, ologopies lead to Mark
Zuckerberg being one rich mother.

-Kelly
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 21:02:53 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 15:02:53 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?
In-Reply-To: <20131009203347.GA10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAJPayv1Ff=0hBOKD5jPRcSLHBrAcy7dLZ4_wOBiEv3QjXVzgmA@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1309252015040.15780@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CAJPayv12Vc4be8rpo1-KrzQ4H_=mNmXE2WhNCpfi3RFS132cdw@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAPy8RwbRBYCH0eCGFpHqe3XyHynjhp_Qc7dE+XtrNJcD1hnfCQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 2:33 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Wed, Oct 09, 2013 at 02:14:53PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> > On Tue, Oct 1, 2013 at 6:18 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> >
> > Infrastructure work is not an idea, or a mobile app. Look at the
> > > last time we did it. Try ordering a synfuel plant on Amazon.
> > >
> >
> > Uh, my brother is currently building a synfuel plant for Sasol in
> > Louisiana. He had three bidders competing to build it. It is not "off the
> > shelf" by any means, but no large chemical plant is. You can't buy any
> > chemical plant on Amazon.
>
> Look at the numbers below (budget, time of contruction, consider
> bottlenecks).
> Multiply by domestic (US) demand, including budget (US will default). Add
> matching
> renewable electricity capacity and water electrolysis instead of methane,
> because the
> natural gas bonanza is fleeting. See that deployment rate, or budget
> for that deployment rate? Nobody talks about these figures when talking
> about PV, wind, or even nuke.
>
> http://mg.co.za/article/2013-09-20-00-sasol-cracks-major-us-fracking-deal


Quoting from the article:
Antoine said the only concern is that, because of the rush for
petrochemical companies to build these plants, in future, there may be too
much capacity.

Doesn't sound too doom and gloom to me in terms of energy supply. I really
don't see how you can turn that into something negative, unless you are
concerned about CO2 emissions. There will be a shit load of CO2 emissions
from this plant.

-Kelly
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From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Wed Oct  9 21:05:03 2013
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Wed, 09 Oct 2013 17:05:03 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Positive yield in nuclear fusion
In-Reply-To: <201310091634.r99GYDjq014721@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201310091634.r99GYDjq014721@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <201310092105.r99L5LC6020194@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

I wrote:

>I am cautiously delighted. For the importance of this milestone. For 
>how long it's been coming.

This is a more modest step than the press is reporting. But it's a 
step. And reportedly they did better still last month but can't 
report it yet, due to the shutdown.


-- David.



From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 21:27:35 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 15:27:35 -0600
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <20131008094953.GI10405@leitl.org>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
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On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 3:49 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Mon, Oct 07, 2013 at 09:36:33PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> > I understand. I reserve the right to reject your reality and substitute
> my
> > own.
>
> If you keep doing that you'll wind up alone in a room.
>

As long as we aren't in the room together... ;-)


> > Other than advertising, I know of no really big revenue stream for
> Google.
> > Would you please enlighten me? My privacy?? Don't know how they monetize
> > that yet.
>
> How much is your freedom worth in a fascist state? Please put it that
> in exact dollar and cents values.
>

$2,350,000.00


> > There are rocket people here. They seem to be relatively optimistic...
> but
>
> I'm just an egg, but I understand the economics of mass transfer in
> the solar system, and our ability to boostrap autonomous fabrication
> capacities in remote locations, which is nonexistent. You want kilotons
> of cheap metal from lightminutes away deorbited and semi-soft landed
> in three decades.
>
> Sure, if Singularity lands. Should be any day now.
>

I'm not saying it will happen, but if there is a sufficiently painful
shortage of key metals, it could happen.


> > Sadly no, since we have so many clever monkeys who are busy caring for
> the
> > monkeys that won't get off their furry butts.
>
> So you agree that mere cleverness of a tiny fraction is insufficient,
> if the majority remain engaged in dysfunctional, long-term suicidal
> behavior.
>

Encouraged by their governments. Yes it is insufficient in the face of
widespread suicidal behavior. That being said, I don't see driving around
in cars to be widespread suicidal behavior.


> > Ooooh. I'm so scared. Wealth building in our past? Are you mad?
>
> Funny, I think you're stark hopping mad, but it seems the feeling is
> mutual. We can't be possibly both right. So one of us has a much
> greater disconnect from reality that the other.
>

This is CLEARLY the case.


> > I've known many rich people myself. None of them are sitting on their ass
>
> Anecdote.
>
> > or their money the way you seem to think they do. All of them are busy
> > investing or building something. Maybe there is something different about
> > rich people in Utah than in other places, but I rather doubt it. Would
> you
>
> Definitely anecdote.
>

Granted, its anecdotal.


>  like to pull a number out of your butt to back up your view of capital
> > amassment?
> >
> > Even rich people who do sit on their asses have money men who invest for
> > them. They don't buy millions of dollars worth of savings bonds for heck
>
> You're obviously clueless about basic mechanisms of wealth transfer
> and trends in social stratification.
>

I know the rich are getting richer. The poor are getting poorer. Give me a
republican president, senate and house, and we'll reverse that trend in
America. Give me Libertarian all three and it will explode!


> > sake. It is ridiculous to say that rich folk's money doesn't do anything.
> > Numbers please.
>
> No. You point me to peer-reviewed publications proving your point.
> Nature/Science should be a good first start. Put up, or shut up.
>

Ok, how stuff works isn't exactly peer reviewed, but I'm only using one
number, and even if it is off by a bit, it makes my point.
http://www.howstuffworks.com/question241.htm
>From the headline, it states that the New York Stock Exchange has stocks
valued at $15 trillion total. That is $15 trillion dollars that is working
for the good of the economy. How much of that $15 trillion dollars do you
suppose belongs to rich people? A third, half? If the rich are getting
richer, then that number, whatever it is, is likely going up.

According to:
http://www2.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html
in 2008, only 19% of the income reported by the 13,480 individuals or
families making over $10 million came from wages and salaries. See Norris,
2010, for more details.

Norris, F. (2010, July 24). Off the Charts: In '08 Downturn, Some Managed
to Eke Out Millions.<http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/24/business/economy/24charts.html>
 *New York Times*, p. B-3.
The New York Times isn't peer reviewed... but a pretty reliable source...

So we have to assume the rest is primarily capital gains. You  only get
capital gains if you have your money invested in SOMETHING. Clearly someone
is investing their money, not stuffing it into mattresses.

So the rich assist everyone by investing their money. If you don't think
they do, you're uninformed. If they don't invest it, they spend it. That
pumps the economy, which you claim they aren't doing. I just don't
understand your point that money belonging to the rich doesn't benefit the
economy.

-Kelly
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 21:39:47 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 15:39:47 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Meditations on the million year mind.
In-Reply-To: <022d01cec50a$f8dd98a0$ea98c9e0$@att.net>
References: <5254E22B.9000508@verizon.net>
 <CALAdGNTm0sE_wz2nd-WVyvCnhwgXcaNDDUe=A7uk3+viC1fs9Q@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAPy8RwYuPApFSkUZrFqB+9tTcoZ7VrJ023tMfaoJVBmpBv_Scg@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 10:16 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
>
> >...We all are playing one game: russian roulette...
>
> We should come up with a new name for that game.  Commie crap shoot?  While
> we are at it, we need a name for the practice of opting out of health
> insurance, paying the tax penalty and hoping for the best, which still
> externalizes risk onto the other tax payers.  Suggestions welcome, extra
> credit for alliteration, such as Capitalist Coinflip or American
> Insecurity.
>

Millennial Maximizers?


> Oh now that's just cold.  Adrian is a young healthy guy, a perfect example
> of the kind of person who will weigh the cost of health insurance vs the
> price of the tax penalty for not having it, then opt out.
>

I haven't decided whether to opt out and pay the penalty yet, and I'm 49.

-Kelly
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 21:45:00 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 15:45:00 -0600
Subject: [ExI] nondestructive uploading of sorts
In-Reply-To: <007c01cec516$4bd8b9d0$e38a2d70$@att.net>
References: <007c01cec516$4bd8b9d0$e38a2d70$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZoZOkQWQ_zq3x5Et1jRQQY6PPRKca=M-O8m+Uysh+5PA@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 11:37 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> ** **
>
> >?Frankly, you?re next?****
>
> ** **
>
> We are a looooong long ways from true uploading.
>
Agreed.

So now we have these computers with cameras, and they can read what we
> write and listen to what we say, taking digital samples of our voice as we
> talk on Skype and so forth.  We can imagine a kinda-sorta uploading where
> the computer imitates our style using our digitally recorded voices and our
> image on the screen.  Using only current technology, we might be able to
> rig something that feels like we are visiting with our digital selves.
> Clearly that is a form of nondestructive uploading in a very loose sense, a
> toy version of it anyway.
>
That is precisely what Ray Kurzweil is working on at Google. It might not
be as far off as you think for this sort of toy.

> **
>
> So the more we learn, the dumber we get.  If we figure it out completely,
> then we may eventually discover what I have already begun to suspect: that
> we are stupid.
>
Ding ding ding, give the man a cigar!

> **
>
> **
>
> **I could imagine using the above toy with our parents and grandparents,
> so that after they are gone, we could have a better-than-nothing Eliza-ish
> ?discussion? of sorts with their avatar.
>
> **
>
> Would that be cool or what?
>
Google apparently thinks so.

-Kelly
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From steinberg.will at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 22:29:55 2013
From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 17:29:55 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Meditations on the million year mind.
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwYuPApFSkUZrFqB+9tTcoZ7VrJ023tMfaoJVBmpBv_Scg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <5254E22B.9000508@verizon.net>
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Message-ID: <CAKrqSyEEn=Dce_-48Y-6RkBoLnzJX78g-SLqmmQjuVATE0wWjA@mail.gmail.com>

But we already have a billions-year old mind.  /anthropocentric
On Oct 9, 2013 4:41 PM, "Kelly Anderson" <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 10:16 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
>> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
>>
>> >...We all are playing one game: russian roulette...
>>
>> We should come up with a new name for that game.  Commie crap shoot?
>>  While
>> we are at it, we need a name for the practice of opting out of health
>> insurance, paying the tax penalty and hoping for the best, which still
>> externalizes risk onto the other tax payers.  Suggestions welcome, extra
>> credit for alliteration, such as Capitalist Coinflip or American
>> Insecurity.
>>
>
> Millennial Maximizers?
>
>
>> Oh now that's just cold.  Adrian is a young healthy guy, a perfect example
>> of the kind of person who will weigh the cost of health insurance vs the
>> price of the tax penalty for not having it, then opt out.
>>
>
> I haven't decided whether to opt out and pay the penalty yet, and I'm 49.
>
> -Kelly
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From anders at aleph.se  Wed Oct  9 23:33:15 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 00:33:15 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Middle Class Doomed?
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZ8uhRdH49sNsx6fZuiqiP8JUHYrUYtoTS99M+tKQ+yog@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwasHpMTgJJLdbq1_R2Rw0RDAH+udo_Fd5b=WW5ddLhBKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130930140223.GY10405@leitl.org> <5249DC4C.3000903@aleph.se>
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Message-ID: <5255E7BB.5060505@aleph.se>

On 09/10/2013 21:37, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> On Mon, Sep 30, 2013 at 2:17 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se 
> <mailto:anders at aleph.se>> wrote:
>
>     On 2013-09-30 15:02, Eugen Leitl wrote:
>
>         On Mon, Sep 30, 2013 at 07:29:34AM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
>             I believe that incomes almost always follow a power curve,
>             with a few
>
>         Depends on the country. It's not a natural law.
>
>
>     Whether it is a natural law is a good question, actually. 
>
>
> The folks at the Santa Fe Institute certainly seem to think that it 
> is. They are smart people, pursuing original lines of thinking, but it 
> makes a lot of sense to me.

That is just a disguised argument from authority. Santa Fe is great, but 
remember that they also are motivated to hope for universal laws of 
complexity. We need better arguments for it than that it is popular at 
cool places.

>     It is not just that power-law tails are found in all
>     industrialised economies, but they seem to follow robustly from a
>     lot of models too (e.g. http://arxiv.org/abs/condmat/0002374 ). 
>
>
> Do you happen to know what they mean by "distribution of wealth tends 
> to be very broadly distributed when exchanges are limited" Anders?

When the interaction between agents is more limited than "everybody 
trades with everybody" the distribution gets more lumpy and unequal.

> The question sort of comes down to this, "Is it always a good thing 
> when the exponent is adjusted so that the middle class is larger?"
>
> It seems obvious, but perhaps it isn't so obvious. I'm not entirely 
> sure, but my gut says a healthy middle class is a good thing.

OK, here is a utilitarian argument: wellbeing as a function of wealth is 
a very convex function. So the sum total wellbeing is maximized if the 
distribution of wealth is equal.

Of course, one might counter by pointing out that (1) maybe we cannot 
sum or compare individual wellbeing, (2) maybe it is not the sum that 
should be maximized, and (3) reallocation schemes might be impermissible 
for deontological reasons.

A classical leftist argument is that wealth is power, so a more equal 
distribution distributes power in society widely. The problem is that it 
is not clear how power actually scales with wealth. It could be that it 
is convex like sqrt(W) or concave like W^2. If it is convex even power 
law tails are not too bad, while concave might make even very equal 
societies look falsely egalitarian while small coalitions rule. And a 
realistic view that things are a messy combination of skill, ambition 
and wealth might imply that in different domains different forms hold.

>  What I'm seeing is that globalization, the Internet and 
> dematerialization are things that push the winner-take-all paradigm to 
> levels that it hasn't previously attained.

Yes. This is true. It also reaches the limit: it is not possible to be 
more global than totally global. Once we have good translation everybody 
will be in the same big domain.


-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University

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From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Oct  9 23:41:24 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 16:41:24 -0700
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1310092115590.17552@tau.ceti.pl>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
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On Oct 9, 2013 1:23 PM, "Tomasz Rola" <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:
> Judging by contents of contemporary movies, we are
> already in deep crisis - the mean density of intellectual content is
> dropping down like dead bird, at least this is how I see it. If what we
> see is really what people want to see, we are dead man walking.

This is a well known error in perception.  You see much crap today, yet the
surviving works of the past - and your memories of them - are generally not
crap, therefore the past must have been better, right?  Actually, wrong.

For the most part, the best of the past will be preserved, the rest
recycled and destroyed.  This leaves little evidence it was there.
Likewise, memories focus on the important - often including good or
personally bad (which movies rarely are) - and delete the (literally)
forgettable dross.  (Many children of the 1980s remember the Transformers.
How many remember the Gobots, especially without prompting?)

Further, as a person matures, the unsubtle storytelling techniques that
amused them in their youth wear out their novelty, and further works with
the same objective quality are subjectively perceived to be more mundane,
boring, et cetera.  (There are ways to fight this effect, but it takes
effort to pick out and potentially enjoy the novel components.)

See how each generation expresses an opinion that the one or two after it
have no taste in literature/music/culture, going back every generation to
ancient Greece.
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From anders at aleph.se  Thu Oct 10 00:47:42 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 01:47:42 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <018901cec4f7$2c6e5ec0$854b1c40$@att.net>
References: <mailman.41.1381233248.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
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Message-ID: <5255F92E.4090209@aleph.se>

On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 9:48 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net 
<mailto:spike66 at att.net>> wrote:
>
>     Indeed sir.  ObamaCare has created more distrust in society than I
>     have seen in my lifetime.
>

 From an outside perspective, it looks more like the mistrust was there 
already.

People in most western democracies are sceptical of government programs 
from the wrong side of the aisle. But they rarely fear them or go out of 
the way to obstruct them like in the US. Germans might complain loudly 
against Energiewende and we Swedes had a long political battle over 
L?ntagarfonder, but it did not reach these levels of paranoia. Even a 
big badly planned healthcare reform is not worth this much bile.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Oct 10 06:05:48 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 23:05:48 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Meditations on the million year mind.
In-Reply-To: <022d01cec50a$f8dd98a0$ea98c9e0$@att.net>
References: <5254E22B.9000508@verizon.net>
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On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 9:16 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
> >... The outcome for that is certain: information-theoretic death. Several
> people on this list, who all hoped that uploading will become available are
> now carbon dioxide. Frankly, you're next...
>

>From what I understand, you're likely to go well before me.


> Oh now that's just cold.  Adrian is a young healthy guy, a perfect example
> of the kind of person who will weigh the cost of health insurance vs the
> price of the tax penalty for not having it, then opt out.
>

Not with the putting of words in my oratory emitter, please.  :P

(As it happens, I don't have that choice.  Health insurance is provided on
my behalf by multiple sources.  I do not have the option to refuse, and
even if I did, refusal would not benefit me: the money diverted to paying
for it would not otherwise be added to my income.  But that's my particular
situation.)
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From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Oct 10 06:25:56 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 08:25:56 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwbRBYCH0eCGFpHqe3XyHynjhp_Qc7dE+XtrNJcD1hnfCQ@mail.gmail.com>
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 <20131009203347.GA10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwbRBYCH0eCGFpHqe3XyHynjhp_Qc7dE+XtrNJcD1hnfCQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131010062556.GF10405@leitl.org>

On Wed, Oct 09, 2013 at 03:02:53PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> Quoting from the article:
> Antoine said the only concern is that, because of the rush for
> petrochemical companies to build these plants, in future, there may be too
> much capacity.

See, selective quoting of beliefs of somebody from press articles is why 
I insisted on peer reviewed publications in future. You seemed to read some other
article entirely, uncritically, and you entirely failed to do your math. 

 
> Doesn't sound too doom and gloom to me in terms of energy supply. I really

Believe all you want, I'm done. Let's talk again in 20 years.

> don't see how you can turn that into something negative, unless you are
> concerned about CO2 emissions. There will be a shit load of CO2 emissions
> from this plant.


From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Oct 10 06:36:28 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 08:36:28 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Meditations on the million year mind.
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRmSyAxhQLai=PqE3V9No8aZCcho087VoWjNXr91K-peA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <5254E22B.9000508@verizon.net>
 <CALAdGNTm0sE_wz2nd-WVyvCnhwgXcaNDDUe=A7uk3+viC1fs9Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131009155625.GJ10405@leitl.org>
 <022d01cec50a$f8dd98a0$ea98c9e0$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNRmSyAxhQLai=PqE3V9No8aZCcho087VoWjNXr91K-peA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131010063628.GG10405@leitl.org>

On Wed, Oct 09, 2013 at 11:05:48PM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:
> On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 9:16 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> 
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> > [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
> > >... The outcome for that is certain: information-theoretic death. Several
> > people on this list, who all hoped that uploading will become available are
> > now carbon dioxide. Frankly, you're next...
> >
> 
> From what I understand, you're likely to go well before me.

That didn't apply to several others who went before into
the great entropy sink in the sky. And if you think a
couple decades matter, well, so did they.  

You seem to have to made up your mind to ignore the only
methods which can provably, potentially save your ass, today. 
So have many others. Collectively, you're making sure
that your only future is carbon dioxide. And most of you are
not even aware of what you're doing, when you're not doing.

Well, good luck with that. You're going to need it.


From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Oct 10 06:43:38 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 23:43:38 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Meditations on the million year mind.
In-Reply-To: <20131010063628.GG10405@leitl.org>
References: <5254E22B.9000508@verizon.net>
 <CALAdGNTm0sE_wz2nd-WVyvCnhwgXcaNDDUe=A7uk3+viC1fs9Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131009155625.GJ10405@leitl.org>
 <022d01cec50a$f8dd98a0$ea98c9e0$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNRmSyAxhQLai=PqE3V9No8aZCcho087VoWjNXr91K-peA@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131010063628.GG10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNS4zOeqikUzO4F9EKAAwTSD_YULqUH6BBr_7vsjo0nv8g@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 11:36 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> You seem to have to made up your mind to ignore the only
> methods which can provably, potentially save your ass, today.
>

Except:

* They haven't been proven.  It won't be proven until people start being
uploaded (or "coalesced", or whatever you choose to term it) and this is
observed to work.  Until then, there is always room for the theory to be
missing something.

* They won't save my ass today.  Maybe some decades from now, if they work
- and if they can be made to work in time for me.  They didn't come soon
enough for many who came before us; if this won't work before I need it,
then I have no incentive to invest in it.
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From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Oct 10 07:46:51 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 09:46:51 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Meditations on the million year mind.
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNS4zOeqikUzO4F9EKAAwTSD_YULqUH6BBr_7vsjo0nv8g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <5254E22B.9000508@verizon.net>
 <CALAdGNTm0sE_wz2nd-WVyvCnhwgXcaNDDUe=A7uk3+viC1fs9Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131009155625.GJ10405@leitl.org>
 <022d01cec50a$f8dd98a0$ea98c9e0$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNRmSyAxhQLai=PqE3V9No8aZCcho087VoWjNXr91K-peA@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131010063628.GG10405@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNS4zOeqikUzO4F9EKAAwTSD_YULqUH6BBr_7vsjo0nv8g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131010074651.GH10405@leitl.org>

On Wed, Oct 09, 2013 at 11:43:38PM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:
> On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 11:36 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> 
> > You seem to have to made up your mind to ignore the only
> > methods which can provably, potentially save your ass, today.
> >
> 
> Except:
> 
> * They haven't been proven.  It won't be proven until people start being

Yes, we provably have ultrastructure preservation *and*
function preservation. If you don't know this, you've not done
your due diligence, and dumping straight from /dev/ass

> uploaded (or "coalesced", or whatever you choose to term it) and this is
> observed to work.  Until then, there is always room for the theory to be
> missing something.

You're definitely missing something: you're dying.
 
> * They won't save my ass today.  Maybe some decades from now, if they work

Have fun in the crematorium oven, then. Buh-bye.

> - and if they can be made to work in time for me.  They didn't come soon
> enough for many who came before us; if this won't work before I need it,
> then I have no incentive to invest in it.

Yes, yes, I pegged you exactly right. You have no reason to put your
money where your mouth is. A real killing joke, for once.


From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Oct 10 08:02:52 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 09:02:52 +0100
Subject: [ExI] id theft in o-care
In-Reply-To: <010801cec51f$cdfb0040$69f100c0$@att.net>
References: <010801cec51f$cdfb0040$69f100c0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armj0RdEW=gaMsasBqDqdTPbyaFm4u3-Rh=DQH0xk9KTouQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 7:46 PM, spike  wrote:
> Note that I am not buying anything, but rather I want to put in a
> theoretical state I might move to in the future, so I want to shop prices.
> They ask for my home address, and they direct me to the California
> exchanges.  What about those who are shopping for a future home?  If I want
> to learn about a theoretical future state, do I need to put in a theoretical
> future address?
>
> I don?t want that outfit knowing who I am or what I estimate my future
> income will be.  Can I give them a theoretical name, a really obvious
> made-up pseudonym such as Fester N. Carbuncle?  They ask for my legal name,
> first, middle and last, as would be shown on a legal document.  So if I just
> want to shop around and not buy anything yet but just for planning purposes
> I go in with SNN 111 11 1111 under the name Barf McBuns to avoid identity
> theft, is that identity theft?
>

Well, it is a government system, so they already know most of the data
they are asking you for.
They claim to have reasons for requiring the data.
It is a health insurance quote, so they need to access your medical records.
They need to know your immigration status. i.e. Are you an official US citizen?
It is benefit assisted, so they need to check your IRS records. And so on.....

However, I think the most important thing not mentioned is that when
you give them all this information, make sure that you don't use your
home pc. You certainly don't want to link your normal IP address to
all this data. The NSA can then link everything on the internet sent
from that IP address to your real life details.


BillK



From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Oct 10 08:19:11 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 10:19:11 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <5255F92E.4090209@aleph.se>
References: <mailman.41.1381233248.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <24B7EFB7-3E41-4C1F-B12D-5BC8AD5A6B4A@me.com>
 <00e501cec43d$e0f736b0$a2e5a410$@att.net>
 <CAPy8Rwbi2RF4rAVsn7hiK0rgUHYnr3aP6S35ZYxG3Qz6YvuWsg@mail.gmail.com>
 <018901cec4f7$2c6e5ec0$854b1c40$@att.net>
 <5255F92E.4090209@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20131010081911.GL10405@leitl.org>

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 01:47:42AM +0100, Anders Sandberg wrote:

> People in most western democracies are sceptical of government
> programs from the wrong side of the aisle. But they rarely fear them
> or go out of the way to obstruct them like in the US. Germans might
> complain loudly against Energiewende and we Swedes had a long

The Energiewende is actually still extremely popular (76% can
imagine to make their own power), despite plenty
of sniper work from the side of the government to discredit it.

http://www.heise.de/tp/blogs/2/155086

tl;dr Energiewende is not a government thing, and it only
happened *despite* the government

> political battle over L?ntagarfonder, but it did not reach these
> levels of paranoia. Even a big badly planned healthcare reform is
> not worth this much bile.


From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Oct 10 08:29:14 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 10:29:14 +0200
Subject: [ExI] id theft in o-care
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armj0RdEW=gaMsasBqDqdTPbyaFm4u3-Rh=DQH0xk9KTouQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <010801cec51f$cdfb0040$69f100c0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armj0RdEW=gaMsasBqDqdTPbyaFm4u3-Rh=DQH0xk9KTouQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131010082914.GM10405@leitl.org>

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 09:02:52AM +0100, BillK wrote:

> However, I think the most important thing not mentioned is that when
> you give them all this information, make sure that you don't use your
> home pc. You certainly don't want to link your normal IP address to
> all this data. The NSA can then link everything on the internet sent
> from that IP address to your real life details.

Are you implying that the spooks are amateurs? 

I also notice little outrage about things like
http://killerapps.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/10/01/on_the_eve_of_the_government_shutdown_the_pentagon_spent_billions_on_weapons

Politics is insane in general, but US' is pure bedlam.


From anders at aleph.se  Thu Oct 10 09:32:04 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 10:32:04 +0100
Subject: [ExI] id theft in o-care
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armj0RdEW=gaMsasBqDqdTPbyaFm4u3-Rh=DQH0xk9KTouQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <010801cec51f$cdfb0040$69f100c0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armj0RdEW=gaMsasBqDqdTPbyaFm4u3-Rh=DQH0xk9KTouQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <52567414.5090600@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-10 09:02, BillK wrote:
> Well, it is a government system, so they already know most of the data 
> they are asking you for.

Who are "they"? The government as a whole may "know" everything, but 
within each compartment it might be impossible to get all relevant data 
together. The DMV cannot just ask the NSA for a current photo of you.

I remember hearing the head of a UK drug enforcement agency complaining 
about that despite giving a direct order, his subordinate agencies were 
*unable* to tell him - after months of research - how much methadone 
they were handing out. The Swedish government simultaneously knows and 
does not know where I live: I get tax bills to the right UK address, but 
the healthcare system has me in a database of "unfindable citizens" 
while the pension system thinks I live in the wrong place.

Government-sceptical Americans seem to have undue faith in how well 
governments actually work.

(But badly managed sites that can be hacked should be a concern)

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Oct 10 10:32:26 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 11:32:26 +0100
Subject: [ExI] id theft in o-care
In-Reply-To: <52567414.5090600@aleph.se>
References: <010801cec51f$cdfb0040$69f100c0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armj0RdEW=gaMsasBqDqdTPbyaFm4u3-Rh=DQH0xk9KTouQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <52567414.5090600@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armieWideiNnumxnHHMMh-OMPDmRTvj3cjN2w9wGhVB831w@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 10:32 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> Who are "they"? The government as a whole may "know" everything, but within
> each compartment it might be impossible to get all relevant data together.
> The DMV cannot just ask the NSA for a current photo of you.
>
<snip>
> Government-sceptical Americans seem to have undue faith in how well
> governments actually work.
>
> (But badly managed sites that can be hacked should be a concern)
>

Yes, it is well-known that government databases are full of errors and
out-of-date data. The same applies to most large company databases,
police. local government, etc.

That is a significant problem with 'big data'. But it is a known
problem and efforts are being made to cross-check, link and
consolidate data files.

This is not always to the advantage of the people. If you are trying
to get a licence or passport from the government and they cannot
confirm your details (or even have you recorded as dead!) then you
have a problem.

Another problem is when organisations ask you for information that
they already know. The reason is not that the knowledge is in another
department. They want to see if you are going to try to give false
information. When you fill up an application form it is cross-checked
all over the place. If your name and address is not in the census
records or phone book, etc. then you are very likely to get your
application refused, or at least queried.

What always makes me smile is the constant harassment from banks to
try to get me to change to paperless (online) monthly bank statements.
Yet if you try to open a bank account the first thing they will ask
for is a recent bank statement from your present bank!

BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Oct 10 11:37:49 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 13:37:49 +0200
Subject: [ExI] some numbers on synfuels, just for the US
Message-ID: <20131010113749.GB10405@leitl.org>


(Exercise to the reader: identify the number of assumptions made,
implicit or otherwise)

http://dieoffdebunked.blogspot.de/2012/12/synfuel-to-partly-offset-peak-oil.html

Synfuel to partly offset Peak Oil declines?

Chris Floudas, a professor of chemical engineering at Princeton, has just
published a paper outlining a strategy for replacing the entire U.S.
transportation oil supply with synthetic fuels from a feedstock comprised of
a combination of non food crops and other (more abundant than oil) fossil
fuels such as coal and natural gas. The fuel would be competitive at a
$/barrel price of between $80-$110. Now, we?ve known for some time (at least
the 1930s) that you can convert coal to liquids and natural gas to liquids so
this is not new news. What?s different is the persistently high oil prices,
which makes the process cost competitive with oil based fuels. 

So let?s make a couple of assumptions here:

1. Oil prices stay high because markets are tight due to inability to raise
production much

2. Using Prof Floudas?s numbers, 47 large plants would produce 71 percent of
the total transportation fuel

3. Although US/Canadian oil production is increasing, globally we see a
decline rate 

4. We are meeting some (but not all) of the decline rate by a combination of
increased fuel efficiency and substitution to electric vehicles. 

So what does that look like? 

For each percentage point of global decline rate, like for like, we need to
replace 1% of the total U.S. fleet, which is 25 million vehicles. Now
naturally, the fleet turns over once every 17 years so this gives us 100/17
for a percentage turnover every year which is about 6% of the fleet. 

If every single one of those vehicles doubled fuel efficiency from 15 mpg to
30 mpg we could handle a 3% decline. That?s probably unrealistic, however, as
Americans are notoriously conservative when it comes to changing their
driving habits. 

So how many are realistic? 

Well right now we are selling about 50,000 priuses a year in the U.S. so
let?s make a wild guess and say we sell 100,000 fuel efficient vehicles per
year today.  Is it realistic to say in the face of peak oil we might see
demand double? So let?s say 200,000 fuel efficient vehicles per year. That?s
close to one percent. 

So we therefore cover a half percentage point of decline rate with fuel
efficient vehicles. 

Let?s be super optimistic and say we can cover another half percent by
replacing oil consumption all together by selling 100,000 all-electric
vehicles per year. So we?ve got x-1 to cover with synthetic fuel (where x is
the decline rate).

But let's imagine that we are uber-pessimists. Let's ignore the contribution
to covering the decline rate from fuel efficient vehicles and electric
vehicles (never mind compressed natural gas vehicles) and instead just look
at how many plants we need to build and what it will cost us to do it. 

So let?s be super pessimistic and say the decline rate is at the high end
(say 10%).  So in the case of the U.S. that?s 1.3 million barrels needs to be
replaced every year for transportation.

Using Prof Floudas?s numbers 71 percent of the total transportation requires
47 large plants, so that?s about 2/3 of a percent per plant each year. 

So we need 15 large plants per year. That?s a cost of $226 billion per year. 

Which is about 700 bucks per U.S. citizen per year or about 60 bucks per
month or about 12 bucks per week.

So that?s the pessimistic case. 

Now is that going to break the bank? Hmmmm.


From spike66 at att.net  Thu Oct 10 12:59:22 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 05:59:22 -0700
Subject: [ExI] id theft in o-care
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armj0RdEW=gaMsasBqDqdTPbyaFm4u3-Rh=DQH0xk9KTouQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <010801cec51f$cdfb0040$69f100c0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armj0RdEW=gaMsasBqDqdTPbyaFm4u3-Rh=DQH0xk9KTouQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <05e501cec5b8$8adc49b0$a094dd10$@att.net>


... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] id theft in o-care

On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 7:46 PM, spike  wrote:
>> ...  They ask for my legal 
> name, first, middle and last, as would be shown on a legal document.  
> So if I just want to shop around and not buy anything yet but just for 
> planning purposes I go in with SNN 111 11 1111 under the name Barf 
> McBuns to avoid identity theft, is that identity theft?
>

>....Well, it is a government system, so they already know most of the data
they are asking you for.
They claim to have reasons for requiring the data.
It is a health insurance quote, so they need to access your medical records.
They need to know your immigration status. i.e. Are you an official US
citizen?
It is benefit assisted, so they need to check your IRS records. And so on...

Ja, there is that, but what I really want is to do some what-ifs for
planning purposes.  If I enter an anticipated future annual salary which is
much lower than now, I want to know what kind of medical insurance this
wonderful new system will provide for me.  I am asking not what I can do for
my country but what my country can do for me.

>...However, I think the most important thing not mentioned is that when you
give them all this information, make sure that you don't use your home pc.
You certainly don't want to link your normal IP address to all this data.
The NSA can then link everything on the internet sent from that IP address
to your real life details...BillK
_________________________________

There are a number of different people who use this computer and this IP
address.  This is intentional, and still as far as I know the best tool for
being anonymous.  There is no law against giving others your computer login
credentials.  I can imagine in the future the government may want to change
this somehow.  I have been careful to not include anyone on that list who
might do identity theft however.

spike



From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Oct 10 13:24:43 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 15:24:43 +0200
Subject: [ExI] id theft in o-care
In-Reply-To: <05e501cec5b8$8adc49b0$a094dd10$@att.net>
References: <010801cec51f$cdfb0040$69f100c0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armj0RdEW=gaMsasBqDqdTPbyaFm4u3-Rh=DQH0xk9KTouQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <05e501cec5b8$8adc49b0$a094dd10$@att.net>
Message-ID: <20131010132442.GH10405@leitl.org>

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 05:59:22AM -0700, spike wrote:

> There are a number of different people who use this computer and this IP

Shared account, I hope.

> address.  This is intentional, and still as far as I know the best tool for
> being anonymous.  There is no law against giving others your computer login

Currently, your best tool for being anonymous is booting up Tails from a 
write-protected USB stick.

> credentials.  I can imagine in the future the government may want to change
> this somehow.  I have been careful to not include anyone on that list who
> might do identity theft however.


From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Oct 10 13:41:40 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 14:41:40 +0100
Subject: [ExI] id theft in o-care
In-Reply-To: <05e501cec5b8$8adc49b0$a094dd10$@att.net>
References: <010801cec51f$cdfb0040$69f100c0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armj0RdEW=gaMsasBqDqdTPbyaFm4u3-Rh=DQH0xk9KTouQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <05e501cec5b8$8adc49b0$a094dd10$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhQWR3OTpzLsbqav7nzp=DSpSvD=MtDJoqC7czkSwa2dg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 1:59 PM, spike  wrote:
> Ja, there is that, but what I really want is to do some what-ifs for
> planning purposes.  If I enter an anticipated future annual salary which is
> much lower than now, I want to know what kind of medical insurance this
> wonderful new system will provide for me.  I am asking not what I can do for
> my country but what my country can do for me.
>
>

If you search for Obamacare calculator, there are several sites which
will do estimates for you. They vary in quality, of course, and some
may just be marketing health insurance.

This one looks reasonable to me.
<http://www.ihealthcareupdates.com/tools/health-care-tax-subsidy-calculator/>

BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Thu Oct 10 13:23:20 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 06:23:20 -0700
Subject: [ExI] id theft in o-care
In-Reply-To: <20131010082914.GM10405@leitl.org>
References: <010801cec51f$cdfb0040$69f100c0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armj0RdEW=gaMsasBqDqdTPbyaFm4u3-Rh=DQH0xk9KTouQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131010082914.GM10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <05ef01cec5bb$e413eb70$ac3bc250$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
Subject: Re: [ExI] id theft in o-care


>...I also notice little outrage about things like
http://killerapps.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/10/01/on_the_eve_of_the_gover
nment_shutdown_the_pentagon_spent_billions_on_weapons

>...Politics is insane in general, but US' is pure bedlam.
_______________________________________________

Eugen, clearly you don't understand the system.  The money they talk about
in this article is a different kind of money than the kind they need to
prevent closing down outdoor memorials and national parks.  The military
already had this money from last year's budget, which was a CR or continuing
resolution, which is a way of saying when the House of Representatives
cannot agree on a budget, they just pass a CR, which keeps the budget the
same as last year.  The current president started  his first term with an
enormous economic stimulus in the form of hundreds of billions of dollars
meant to save failing banks.  They somehow managed to get that one time
economic stimulus to count as part of that year's budget, so the next year's
CR included that economic stimulus package again.  Repeat for the next five
years in a row and this is where we end up.  The government has billions
that it must spend at the end of the fiscal year, on anything it can think
of, anything.  Otherwise it loses that money for next year.  

At the same time, parks are closing for lack of funding.  This is a
different kind of money, for it goes for things that are highly visible,
parks, open air memorials and so forth.  These are intentionally closed and
blocked off in order to draw attention to the government's need for more
money.  It encourages the citizenry to pressure their congress-critters to
authorize more borrowing, so that next year about this time, there will
again be a wild and desperate struggle to spend the remaining budget on
time.

What we are really seeing is a massive real-world test of Keynesian
economics.  Keynes would suggest that the government's taking the maximum
funds from the citizenry and spending it on anything, even complete
frivolity, helps and stimulates the economy.  Hayek would predict that only
sane expenditures really help the economy in the long run, that silly
wasteful expenditures actually hurt the economy and the nation, for it keeps
it building infrastructure to make stuff we don't need or want.

spike



From spike66 at att.net  Thu Oct 10 14:01:57 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 07:01:57 -0700
Subject: [ExI] id theft in o-care
In-Reply-To: <20131010132442.GH10405@leitl.org>
References: <010801cec51f$cdfb0040$69f100c0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armj0RdEW=gaMsasBqDqdTPbyaFm4u3-Rh=DQH0xk9KTouQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <05e501cec5b8$8adc49b0$a094dd10$@att.net> <20131010132442.GH10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <05f901cec5c1$491b02b0$db510810$@att.net>

 

 

On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
Subject: Re: [ExI] id theft in o-care

 

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 05:59:22AM -0700, spike wrote:

 

>>... There are a number of different people who use this computer and this
IP address...

 

>...Shared account, I hope.

>...Currently, your best tool for being anonymous is booting up Tails from a
write-protected USB stick.

_______________________________________________

 

 

Ja, I have never gotten serious about online security because I haven't done
anything illegal.  

 

That being said, I now learn that I cannot window-shop in the new ObamaCare
system.  In order to see what deals are available, you need to identify
yourself with social security numbers, birth date, address, answers to three
security questions, current medical insurance, everything, so that if you
don't currently have insurance or have insurance they deem inadequate, you
have provided everything the feds need to fine you.  So this system as it is
currently does not allow you to window shop anonymously.  It is an insurance
shopping mall with all the windows blacked out.  If you enter that mall, you
must buy something before you can leave, even if you don't want any of the
products there.

 

They have set up a system which would make the casual shopper vulnerable to
ID theft.  Of course people will get that far and just stop.  How can you
know that this site isn't counterfeit?  It looks just like a phishing scam
to me.  Consider how we often spot phishing scams: look for little
grammatical errors, misspellings, things that Nigerians would likely do.
This is a screen shot I reached yesterday from what claims to be the
official government site:

 

cid:image002.jpg at 01CEC535.145F94F0

 

So why do they repeat the message in the red box?  Why do they insert an
apostrophe in couldn't the second time but omit it the first time?  Why is
the second Important in bold but the first one is not?  Is the second
Important more important than the first Important?  Why?  This site looks
phishy to me, just a little too Nigerian to dump personal information here.

 

I don't know that any of this matters however.  It is perfectly clear to me
this system is heavily dependent on young healthy people, and they are not
coming, even according to the most liberal optimistic sites I can find.  The
young and healty are opting for the tax penalty, which isn't much in the
first year.  

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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Oct 10 14:54:52 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 10:54:52 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Euthanasia
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3M1fdRM_N8u3kXZMagcxcF+=qasjQBArGTgh3HJdYVQg@mail.gmail.com>

>
> >> fixing brains has the same problem. In reality, you will need to
>> proceed more or less like for cryosuspension: wait until the patient is
>> declared dead, and then start biostasis protocols.
>>
>
> > There might be a loophole: euthanasia is legal in some jurisdictions.
> Eliminating peri-arrest damage appears to be crucial for optimal perfusion.
>

Obviously legal euthanasia would be a very desirable thing, and not just
because it leads to better perfusion; but unfortunately the same political
party that says it wants to get government off your back is also willing,
as can be seen in the Terri Schiavo fiasco, to call for a emergency session
of congress to make sure government retains its power to prevent you from
doing what you want with your body. To my mind making someone live who
wants to die is as immoral as murder, making someone die who wants to live.
But at least that party can sometimes cause congress to act quickly and
decisively, even if it is quickly and decisively stupid.

Speaking of stupid, that same political party has also come to think that
not paying your bills will calm down your creditors. And the really amazing
thing is that, although I'm embarrassed to admit it, I am a member of that
very same political party. I think a few years ago that party must have
suffered a stroke that resulted in massive brain damage, and so now I am
ashamed to belong to the party of Lincoln.

  John K Clark
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From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Oct 10 15:46:15 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 08:46:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3M1fdRM_N8u3kXZMagcxcF+=qasjQBArGTgh3HJdYVQg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3M1fdRM_N8u3kXZMagcxcF+=qasjQBArGTgh3HJdYVQg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRR2Nfsi6eQkZF6G4BPHMGLW=DFOMEak44YfWAcOamjqQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Oct 10, 2013 7:55 AM, "John Clark" <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> Speaking of stupid, that same political party has also come to think that
not paying your bills will calm down your creditors. And the really amazing
thing is that, although I'm embarrassed to admit it, I am a member of that
very same political party. I think a few years ago that party must have
suffered a stroke that resulted in massive brain damage, and so now I am
ashamed to belong to the party of Lincoln.

Technically both parties are Lincoln's: the Democrats split off from the
Democratic-Republican party.  Moreover, ideological and candidate shifts
mean neither party retains meaningful connection except in name to what
they were in or before the 1960s - 1970s too, somewhat.

That said, "brain damage" is an apt way to describe the TEA Party's
takeover of the Republicans over the past decade or so.
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From spike66 at att.net  Thu Oct 10 16:39:26 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 09:39:26 -0700
Subject: [ExI] put this crazy system out of our misery: was RE: Euthanasia
Message-ID: <007801cec5d7$49cee760$dd6cb620$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Subject: Re: [ExI] Euthanasia


On Oct 10, 2013 7:55 AM, "John Clark" <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>>. Speaking of stupid, that same political party has also come to think
that not paying your bills will calm down your creditors. now I am ashamed
to belong to the party of Lincoln.

I don't understand why US creditors are as calm as they are.  We are saying
we must be allowed to borrow more money at a faster pace in order to pay our
bills for things we have already bought.  But a crazy faction is saying no,
if we pay bills with borrowed money, we haven't really paid our bills at
all, but rather merely rearranged credit ratings as we rack up ever higher
bills.  We have a president who says things like:

"Now, this debt ceiling -- I just want to remind people in case you haven't
been keeping up -- raising the debt ceiling, which has been done over a
hundred times, does not increase our debt; it does not somehow promote
profligacy.  All it does is it says you got to pay the bills that you've
already racked up, Congress.  It's a basic function of making sure that the
full faith and credit of the United States is preserved."

By what line of reasoning does raising the debt ceiling not result in
increased debt?  Is he claiming that if we raise this debt limit we will not
borrow the money?  If he thinks we will not borrow more money, why do we
need to authorize it?  We have hit this debt limit over 100 times and
increased it.  Every single time the US government borrowed all it was
allowed to borrow and has come back for more, as it is doing now.  I
consider that pretty good evidence that it will happen again.  In that sense
raising the debt limit is equivalent to borrowing that amount of money.

Remind me again John why it is you are ashamed to belong to the party of
Lincoln?

The same president who is now telling us raising the debt ceiling does not
increase our debt seven years ago uttered this:

'The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a
sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the US Government cannot pay
its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial
assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government's reckless
fiscal policies. Increasing America's debt weakens us domestically and
internationally. Leadership means that "the buck stops here." Instead,
Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our
children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of
leadership. Americans deserve better.' 



Which sounds right to you?  John, which of these comments sounds more right?
I'll take the second one from 2006.  Show me even one reckless fiscal policy
which has ended since 2006, and I can show you a dozen new reckless policies
that have replaced it.

 

Remind me again please that bit about we need to borrow more money to
preserve the full faith and credit of the US?

 

This government healthcare scheme DEFINITELY does shift the burden onto the
backs of our children and grandchildren.  That in itself is bad enough, but
consider what happens when it becomes obvious that our children and
grandchildren cannot afford even their own health insurance, never mind
ours.

 

In specifically disowning his 2006 commentary, the president suggested he
was engaging in political gamesmanship back then.  Well OK, how do we know
he isn't doing that now?  US creditors are asked to rely on the full faith
and credit of the US, if we demonstrate not only that we cannot live on what
we make, but our accounting system absolutely demands we waste money, tall
piles of it:

 

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/10/07/new-air-force-cargo-planes-fly-straight
-into-mothballs/

 

That O-care website Healthcare.gov which doesn't work right and looks like a
phishing scam cost the US government over 600 million dollars.  And it isn't
a minor glitch.  I checked it this morning and it still isn't working.

 

I used BillK's site this morning to see numbers so shocking it gave me a
clear view of how this will all play out in the near term future.  The ones
who manage to penetrate this healthcare.gov system will find they
misunderstood what this new law does if you are poor: very little.  They
will get quoted numbers far higher than you can afford, then they will be
reminded that they must buy something or face a fine, and the people who
will levy the fine know everything they need to know because of the info you
just entered, thank you.

 

Anders can you see why this whole thing has generated distrust and bilious
political sniping everywhere in the US?  One party gained a supermajority in
2008.  A filibuster-proof supermajority means they did not need to debate
anything in public, for any actual debate on the content of the proposed law
could just be mislabeled filibuster and ended by supermajority vote, which
it was.  Then the whole thing could be designed off the record, possibly
including the use of threats, bribes or any other available means, which it
likely was.  This whole mess was designed in secret and passed by brute
force without a single minority party vote in either house, not one.  And
even after it was brought up for vote, the majority party leader admitted
they passed this mess without knowing what was actually in the bill.  They
couldn't have known: they were making changes right up to the last minute,
there wasn't time to even read the thing, never mind have legitimate debate
on it.  I am not kidding:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KoE1R-xH5To

 

So they own this damn thing.  If it fails spectacularly, it will likely
destroy the existing healthcare system and along with it that party which
designed the failed fix, which merely took a broken system and broke it even
more.  That will fundamentally alter the face of politics in the country for
a generation if not longer.

 

John why is it you are ashamed of being a Republican?

>.Technically both parties are Lincoln's: the Democrats split off from the
Democratic-Republican party.

Ja, the Republicans were the party of abolition.  The Democrats were the
party of slavery.  It sure looks to me like that party is trying to force us
back into slavery.  John, remind me why it is you are ashamed to be
registered with the party of abolition please?

>.That said, "brain damage" is an apt way to describe the TEA Party's
takeover of the Republicans over the past decade or so.

Ja those crazy fools believe the government should live within its means.
It is the rise of a party of Friedrich Hayek.  Insane, dangerous people are
these.  Not. 

spike

 

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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Thu Oct 10 17:53:55 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 11:53:55 -0600
Subject: [ExI] some numbers on synfuels, just for the US
In-Reply-To: <20131010113749.GB10405@leitl.org>
References: <20131010113749.GB10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZH8-8Jka0St5GP3iSBP7nCknLaFhYnJPgGi51dGoMaZg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 5:37 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

>
> (Exercise to the reader: identify the number of assumptions made,
> implicit or otherwise)
>

Yes this article made a HUGE number of assumptions. The first assumption
which I think is wrong is that oil prices would stay high. The petroleum
industry has shown in the past that every time they have significant
competition, they simply drop the price for a while to starve that
competition out. They have the ability to do this as an oligopoly (OPEC
being part of that) and they could very easily outlast a highly leveraged
synfuel company.

If the government were itself the large synfuel company, then they might be
able to outlast the oil conglomerate... but then you would have the
inefficiencies associated with it being a government operation. I suppose
the government could just hold the price of oil high enough with taxation
to make sure the synfuel giants succeeded, but that seems unlikely EXCEPT
in the case where the large oil giants also become the synfuel giants.

So if a company like Sasol expanded large enough to become a major threat
to the oil industry, they would simply be crushed. It wouldn't take long.
They seem to be taking a grow slow approach to it now, not over leveraging,
which is probably wise. Don't want to show up on the oil industry's enemies
list too soon.

If they are successful, then maybe there will be a similar Exxon plant or
Shell plant someday.

The article did have a number of other assumptions as well. Some may be
good, some bad. It's hard to say. I don't really get his point about energy
efficient and electric cars. Just adding up demand I suppose. He seems to
throw that out at the end.

Every smart energy person I've ever heard talks about deemphasising which
energy source is most important in the future. Now, oil for transportation
and coal for electricity have much more of a percentage than anything
likely will have in the future unless something like space based solar
turns out to be so cheap that you just don't do anything else. That would
indeed be frightening for all of our energy supply to come from off planet.
That's a very high tech bet.

-Kelly
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Thu Oct 10 19:55:11 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 13:55:11 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?
In-Reply-To: <20131010062556.GF10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAJPayv12Vc4be8rpo1-KrzQ4H_=mNmXE2WhNCpfi3RFS132cdw@mail.gmail.com>
 <Pine.LNX.4.64.1309262025400.9022@tau.ceti.pl>
 <CAJPayv3G4ST+1Ha6CG3oBpGmgTW3jvBB_YkF82vTftSAWQvERQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <op.w31sxyu40wog37@kira> <20130927055747.GI10405@leitl.org>
 <op.w369gtne0wog37@kira> <20131001121829.GR10405@leitl.org>
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 <20131009203347.GA10405@leitl.org>
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Message-ID: <CAPy8RwYv3XUoaxZhDYvMCYYw55uwZNcd+ac-5VWqMLkzBU8txw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 12:25 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Wed, Oct 09, 2013 at 03:02:53PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
> See, selective quoting of beliefs of somebody from press articles is why
> I insisted on peer reviewed publications in future. You seemed to read
> some other
> article entirely, uncritically, and you entirely failed to do your math.
>

We are all pattern seeking mammals. We see the world through the framework
that we have built up of it. The map, so to speak. I tend to be optimistic.
You tend to be pessimistic. You believe the facts support your side, I
believe the facts support my side. Everything goes through our filters and
is amplified by them. The truth no doubt lies somewhere in between. I am
not as Pollyanna as I may sound in this discussion. I know there are hard
problems. I also know there are good people out there working hard on those
problems because it is in their self interest to do so. My brother, for
example, has four kids to send to college, so I'm pretty sure he's working
hard on his new plant in Lake Charles.

Your assumption is that we are all on a big Easter Island and we're
chopping down the last trees. My assumption is that Easter Island is full
of Easter eggs and that we simply have to look for them.

Have you read Peter Diamandis' book Abundance?
http://www.diamandis.com/abundance/

You probably feel that he's full of semi-digested material too. But I
choose to believe, simply, that Peter has thought this all through better
than you have. He has, after all, had access to the world's greatest minds
for the last couple of decades and has made millions through his
understanding of how the world really works. If you understood how the
world really works, wouldn't you also have made millions? Show me the
corresponding multi-millionaire on your side. I am simply unaware that the
Warren Buffetts of the world are spouting the dangers of EROEI. Maybe they
are, I just haven't heard them. Is it an important issue. Yes. I agree with
that. Is it going to be a huge issue... I'm not sure that it will be since
we have hundreds of years worth of fossil fuels left to burn that are not
in danger of having a negative EROEI. If the environmentalists take over,
it would make it more difficult, but they simply won't win against kids
that want to go to the mall.

> Doesn't sound too doom and gloom to me in terms of energy supply. I really
>
> Believe all you want, I'm done. Let's talk again in 20 years.
>

Sounds good. For the record, that will be 10/10/2023. I look forward to the
conversation. Of course if you are right, we may not be able to power the
Internet by then, and you won't even have the ability to tell me "I told
you so" from your cave.

-Kelly
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Oct 10 20:35:44 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 16:35:44 -0400
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE: Euthanasia
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>

 On Oct 10, 2013, at 12:39 PM, spike wrote:

> I don?t understand why US creditors are as calm as they are.
>

Well just today there are hints that the Republicans may have found a
little sanity concerning the debt ceiling and won't set off the dynamite
suicide vest they have strapped to their chest for 6 weeks, and the stock
market went up 323 points.

> We are saying we must be allowed to borrow more money
>

Yes

 > at a faster pace
>

No, we're borrowing more money but the rate of increase has slowed. The
deficit has decreased for the last 2 years, it's 250 billion less this year
than last, 336 if you count the sequester.

> in order to pay our bills for things we have already bought.
>

Yes, borrowing money to pay your bills might or might not be bad depending
on circumstances, but not paying your bills is ALWAYS bad.

> Every single time the US government borrowed all it was allowed to borrow
> and has come back for more,
>

Yes.

 > as it is doing now.
>

Yes.

 > I consider that pretty good evidence that it will happen again.
>

Yes. Since 1960 the debt ceiling has been raised 78 times, but nevertheless
this planet has gone on cycling according to the fixed law of gravity, and
far from inflation showing signs of returning today deflation seems to be a
far more pressing threat.

> Remind me again John why it is you are ashamed to belong to the party of
> Lincoln?
>

*Because REPUBLICAN congressman Ted Yoho said that the government of the
USA refusing to pay back the money it was owed:

"would bring stability to the world markets"

*Because REPUBLICAN congressman Mo Brooks said:

"In fact, our credit rating should be improved by not raising the debt
ceiling.?

*Because REPUBLICAN congressman Paul Brown said:

" All that stuff I was taught about evolution and embryology and the Big
Bang Theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of Hell. And it's lies
to try to keep me and all the folks who were taught that from understanding
that they need a savior. You see, there are a lot of scientific data that
I've found out as a scientist that actually show that this is really a
young Earth. I don't believe that the Earth's but about 9,000 years old. I
believe it was created in six days as we know them. That's what the Bible
says."

*Because REPUBLICAN Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell said:

"It is not enough to be abstinent with other people, you also have to be
abstinent alone. The Bible says that lust in your heart is committing
adultery. You can't masturbate without lust!" and ?American scientific
companies are cross-breeding humans and animals and coming up with mice
with fully functioning human brains.?
and "You know what, evolution is a myth. Why aren't monkeys still evolving
into humans?"

*Because REPUBLICAN congressman Michele Bachman said:

"There are hundreds and hundreds of scientists, many of them holding Nobel
Prizes, who believe in intelligent design.?

*Because REPUBLICAN Senate candidate Joe Miller said:

"The first thing that has to be done is secure the border ? East Germany
was very, very able to reduce the flow....  secure the border. If East
Germany could, we could.?

*Because REPUBLICAN Congressman  Glen Urquhart said:

?Do you know, where does this phrase ?separation of church and state? come
from? It was not in Jefferson?s letter to the Danbury Baptists. ? The exact
phrase ?separation of Church and State? came out of Adolph Hitler?s mouth,
that?s where it comes from. So the next time your liberal friends talk
about the separation of Church and State, ask them why they?re Nazis.


> > Remind me again please that bit about we need to borrow more money to
> preserve the full faith and credit of the US?
>

Because if you owe me money and promise to pay me back today and you don't
pay me back today then I will have lost my faith in you and will never lone
you money again nor will anybody else once the word gets out, in other
words you would have lost your credit. If you don't have a lot of money it
might be irresponsible to go to a expensive restaurant, but it would be far
more irresponsible to stuff yourself and then refuse to pay the bill. It's
ridiculous we're even arguing over this Economics 101 point.

And I think the name you've renamed this thread to is interesting, just
blow up the entire economic world and start over from square one. Well I
can understand the appeal, there are a hell of a lot of things I'd like to
change if I could, I too would like to live in a libertarian utopia, but
we're so many light years from that it's just unrealistic to expect to
start civilization all over again from the stone age without several
billion deaths.  Historically grand plans to radically and instantly
transform a society NEVER end well.

> This government healthcare scheme DEFINITELY does shift the burden onto
> the backs of our children and grandchildren.
>

To hell with them, let them fight their own wars. Productivity improves, so
a dollar today is far more valuable than a dollar will be to my
grandchildren.

  John K Clark
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Thu Oct 10 20:58:20 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 14:58:20 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Middle Class Doomed?
In-Reply-To: <5255E7BB.5060505@aleph.se>
References: <CAPy8RwasHpMTgJJLdbq1_R2Rw0RDAH+udo_Fd5b=WW5ddLhBKQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20130930140223.GY10405@leitl.org> <5249DC4C.3000903@aleph.se>
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 <5255E7BB.5060505@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwbWyDF0otGfXjbWazcJDpTBqi27h=7DCNTwWrh1fdeMVw@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 5:33 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

>  On 09/10/2013 21:37, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
> On Mon, Sep 30, 2013 at 2:17 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
>
>>
>>  Whether it is a natural law is a good question, actually.
>
>
>  The folks at the Santa Fe Institute certainly seem to think that it is.
> They are smart people, pursuing original lines of thinking, but it makes a
> lot of sense to me.
>
> That is just a disguised argument from authority.
>

That is a really great point.


> Santa Fe is great, but remember that they also are motivated to hope for
> universal laws of complexity. We need better arguments for it than that it
> is popular at cool places.
>

Complexity is a new science. It is probably early to expect a lot of really
strong results from a science this young. Nevertheless, I personally find
it to be very compelling and entirely worth pursuing.


>
> It is not just that power-law tails are found in all industrialised
>> economies, but they seem to follow robustly from a lot of models too (e.g.
>> http://arxiv.org/abs/condmat/0002374 ).
>
>
>  Do you happen to know what they mean by "distribution of wealth tends to
> be very broadly distributed when exchanges are limited" Anders?
>
>
> When the interaction between agents is more limited than "everybody trades
> with everybody" the distribution gets more lumpy and unequal.
>

I see. Thanks. Does that happen in real economies? I guess maybe like in
old Soviet Russia??? Would the lack of certain kinds of stores in American
inner cities be an example of this kind of lumpiness?


>
>
>   The question sort of comes down to this, "Is it always a good thing
> when the exponent is adjusted so that the middle class is larger?"
>
>  It seems obvious, but perhaps it isn't so obvious. I'm not entirely
> sure, but my gut says a healthy middle class is a good thing.
>
>
> OK, here is a utilitarian argument: wellbeing as a function of wealth is a
> very convex function.
>

Happiness is only positively influenced by a rise out of abject poverty.
Once you reach a certain level, happiness is no longer correlated with
wealth. Is that what you mean when you say it is a convex function?


> So the sum total wellbeing is maximized if the distribution of wealth is
> equal.
>

I kind of understand, but some people are savers, and some spenders, so
even if you achieved this, there is no possible way to maintain it for any
length of time. Just imagine if everyone in America had the same amount of
money one day. Ten percent would blow through that money in a matter of
weeks. Ten percent would serve those people and end up with twice as much
money in a matter of weeks, and you would be well on your way back to a
Pareto distribution in a matter of months. How would you prevent that?



Of course, one might counter by pointing out that (1) maybe we cannot sum
> or compare individual wellbeing, (2) maybe it is not the sum that should be
> maximized, and (3) reallocation schemes might be impermissible for
> deontological reasons.
>

Well being is also not correlated to wealth, other than escaping abject
poverty. So well being isn't a function of money, so using money (rather
than education or therapy for example) to distribute well being is a kind
of false argument, don't you suppose?

While I think you can sum or compare individual well being theoretically,
it would be difficult to do so in actual practice. I prefer to let each
person pursue their own well being as they see fit to do so.

The founding fathers of America famously asked for the ability to pursue
happiness, not to have happiness. Equality of opportunity is not equality
of outcome.


> A classical leftist argument is that wealth is power, so a more equal
> distribution distributes power in society widely. The problem is that it is
> not clear how power actually scales with wealth. It could be that it is
> convex like sqrt(W) or concave like W^2. If it is convex even power law
> tails are not too bad, while concave might make even very equal societies
> look falsely egalitarian while small coalitions rule. And a realistic view
> that things are a messy combination of skill, ambition and wealth might
> imply that in different domains different forms hold.
>

It is clearly a complex subject. However, I question the premise to some
extent. If you and I had equal power, and you are clearly more intelligent
than I, then giving us equal power could lead to a worse outcome than if
you made the decisions by yourself. So one COULD argue that the best
outcome would be if the most intelligent person to be found was made into
the dictator of us all. However, there is limited bandwidth to one person's
thinking, no matter how intelligent they are, so distributing power to the
more intelligent or ambitious or even wealthy might not be a necessarily
bad thing. There is a reason that we elect successful people to the office
of President (the current occupant being the exception to the rule.)


>
>  What I'm seeing is that globalization, the Internet and dematerialization
> are things that push the winner-take-all paradigm to levels that it hasn't
> previously attained.
>
>
> Yes. This is true. It also reaches the limit: it is not possible to be
> more global than totally global. Once we have good translation everybody
> will be in the same big domain.
>

Except that  we still have countries with less infrastructure, with poorer
educational systems, with religious domination (Iran, Utah), and other
factors that will keep things unequal for quite some time.

-Kelly
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From rtomek at ceti.pl  Thu Oct 10 21:44:08 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 23:44:08 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] it was the best times, it was the best of times
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQE89ZOu+fKK75uVXbF7ZA4q7CuOENpyQcJsEffMenesw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <043101cec0b5$b171ec90$1455c5b0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwbVG0osaPGd4uLc1xeewQ8_F3J9hgQwu7m6WVeeXuXCWQ@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1310102231220.6539@tau.ceti.pl>

On Wed, 9 Oct 2013, Adrian Tymes wrote:

> On Oct 9, 2013 1:23 PM, "Tomasz Rola" <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:
> > Judging by contents of contemporary movies, we are already in deep 
> > crisis - the mean density of intellectual content is dropping down 
> > like dead bird, at least this is how I see it. If what we see is 
> > really what people want to see, we are dead man walking.
> 
> This is a well known error in perception.  You see much crap today, yet 
> the surviving works of the past - and your memories of them - are 
> generally not crap, therefore the past must have been better, right?  
> Actually, wrong.

Ok, this may be an error in my perception. It's quite easy to agree with 
such statement, especially that it ends discussion - "oh, so it's nothing 
so wrong with nowadays, it is just I am growing old and envious"... On the 
other hand, perhaps too many people, too often agree with such explanation 
and dismiss the other answer out of mental lazyness?

> For the most part, the best of the past will be preserved, the rest 
> recycled and destroyed.  This leaves little evidence it was there. 
> Likewise, memories focus on the important - often including good or 
> personally bad (which movies rarely are) - and delete the (literally) 
> forgettable dross.  (Many children of the 1980s remember the 
> Transformers. How many remember the Gobots, especially without 
> prompting?)

I don't remember Transformers and those other guys. I remember Star Wars 
*without* dinosaurs, and meant to be watched by adults. Or at least 
wannabe adults.

:-)

> Further, as a person matures, the unsubtle storytelling techniques that 
> amused them in their youth wear out their novelty, and further works 
> with the same objective quality are subjectively perceived to be more 
> mundane, boring, et cetera.  (There are ways to fight this effect, but 
> it takes effort to pick out and potentially enjoy the novel components.)

Well, perhaps.

I recently started to enjoy B movies a lot. They don't have pretentious 
posturing to be something more than they really are. Some are truly 
catastrophically made, but some are quite good. On the other hand, after 
watching Avatar (on my cable), I decided to not watch it again for a 
while, maybe five or ten years. I wasn't totally disgusted but if I was to 
measure the worth of cultural good by my will to buy it, then Avatar and 
many others are not on the list at all. Of sf movies, I will buy Kubrick's 
"2001" (Hyams' "2010" I could buy too, if not very pricey), maybe 
"Clockwork Orange", then Scott's "Blade Runner" and then I really have 
nothing to buy. At least nothing that would've been obvious choice, 
without some intense thinking. However, of noncinematic movies, I have 
bought me a "Terminator the Sarah Connor Chronicles". But I'm not sure if 
I would buy T3 and T4. Well T3, maybe. T1 and T2, too. I may consider some 
sf movies made in Eastern Block, they feel and look very nice compared to 
certain abovementioned titles (like, Avatar, Next, Inception or whatever 
else I watched and forgot).

Of non-sf movies, full set of Kurosawa and Scorsese's "Taxi driver" are
obvious buy. Then, I don't know again.

This night my cable serves "The Helix Loaded", a "Matrix" B-ripoff.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0401462/

AFAIK I have never before watched a movie with imdb rating so low (1.7). I 
am so excited!

> See how each generation expresses an opinion that the one or two after 
> it have no taste in literature/music/culture, going back every 
> generation to ancient Greece.

I don't remember how it was in ancient Greece, I was very young at the 
time. I believe your word, however.

Perhaps the real problem I have with today's culture is that some time 
ago, if I'm not mistaken, children wanted to be adults. Or at least it was 
something normal. And I don't mean children working in coalmines. Nowadays 
it's adults who want to be children and salespeople jumping out of their 
skins to help fulfill this dream.

Another explanation is, I expect to see nuts and bolts. It looks like most 
folks don't want to bother, so they're served some "coming of age" or 
"feeling" stories packaged and repackaged, with nuts and bolts being 
merely part of decoration. Heck, there are even remakes of films made 
elsewhere, because... why, viewer is unable to keep attention on a plot 
while being distracted by cultural differences, even between two _western_ 
countries? Heck2, there are even remakes of films made in the same 
country, 20-30 years earlier, maybe even only 10 years earlier...

Yeah, I know. If something earned money to some other guys, then lets 
remake and earn money too. But it really makes a, say, cultural landscape 
rather miserable to look at.

Ewww... Ewww...

Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From spike66 at att.net  Thu Oct 10 22:24:12 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 15:24:12 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark
Sent: Thursday, October 10, 2013 1:36 PM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE: Euthanasia

 

 On Oct 10, 2013, at 12:39 PM, spike wrote:

>>. I don't understand why US creditors are as calm as they are.  

 

>.Well just today there are hints that the Republicans may have found a
little sanity concerning the debt ceiling and won't set off the dynamite
suicide vest they have strapped to their chest for 6 weeks, and the stock
market went up 323 points.

 

Ja, cool about the stock market.  Now about that business of borrowing money
to pay our debts, if we do that, we haven't paid off any debts at all.  We
just rearrange debts.  If no one challenges it, the insane practice goes on
unabated.  We had this guy who told us in 2006 that this was a national
threat, unpatriotic, etc.  So we elected him president.  He not only didn't
try to fix it, he switched sides.  His former argument regarding increasing
the debt limit is far more convincing than the one he is using now.  How did
massive borrowing become not a national threat, and not unpatriotic?

 

I don't understand who is still loaning money to the US, and why.  If you
were a banker and some yahoo came in saying he needed to borrow money to pay
interest on what he has already borrowed, you would say that guy is
bankrupt.  Not will go bankrupt, but is now.  We have a president who says
raising the  borrowing limit doesn't add to the debt.  How does that work?
Do we have two different definitions of the term debt?

 

>>. This government healthcare scheme DEFINITELY does shift the burden onto
the backs of our children and grandchildren. 

 

>.To hell with them, let them fight their own wars. Productivity improves,
so a dollar today is far more valuable than a dollar will be to my
grandchildren.  John K Clark

Hmmm, perhaps.  But maybe not.  We have held assumptions of exponential
growth forever, and based all our spending on that assumption.  What happens
if future generations are not as rich as we are?  Then we have borrowed
their money and spent it on the craziest stuff:
http://www.businessinsider.com/newly-built-aircraft-set-to-go-straight-to-de
sert-boneyard-2013-10

 

If we go with the assumption that wasteful spending is a good thing, why not
waste it on something that might somehow pay in the future, like
manufacturing and warehousing billions in solar panels and inverters?  If we
are just wasting the money anyway, why not waste it on that?  You can get a
lot of solar panels for the price of one useless cargo plane.

My prediction is that the congress will eventually compromise and pass some
kind of budget, perhaps a pumped-up version of sequestration.  Life will go
on.  Eventually the economy will grow enough to accommodate the spending
level we have sustained for the past five years.

We have seen already that there is plenty of room to cut government.  The
sequestration cuts they have made so far were so nearly painless, they had
to go out of their way to make the cuts annoying.  I got a call this morning
from where we had reservations to camp next weekend, saying the fed had
closed the campground.  They didn't refund my reservation money.  I have
gone up into the Sierras every fall for the last several years and I have
never seen a federal agent anywhere.  So closing that campground didn't save
the government anything, not one dollar.  They did it just to make life
difficult.  So I say very well, close the campgrounds and monuments, keep
the pressure on congress.  Do a version of healthcare which does not require
government subsidy.  Give a temporary debt limit increase, say 100 billion
dollars, then let's go at it again, extract a few cuts and give them another
100 billion when that is gone.  Let's get on with it, but not by just
borrowing more and more and more money.  It's unpatriotic.  It's a national
security threat.

spike





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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 00:28:32 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 17:28:32 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Talk at Google last July
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB5Ryz3EY2Mrao3rSzFyFQhqauPaWt1G-38X-fYhy35fkg@mail.gmail.com>

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5N71bNMoGurLTNJMTJ1cm1wTk0/edit?usp=sharing

It's most of an hour and ~130 MB streaming.

For those who really want to know one way to solve
energy/carbon/climate/economic problems.

Keith


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 02:50:00 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 22:50:00 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRR2Nfsi6eQkZF6G4BPHMGLW=DFOMEak44YfWAcOamjqQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3M1fdRM_N8u3kXZMagcxcF+=qasjQBArGTgh3HJdYVQg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNRR2Nfsi6eQkZF6G4BPHMGLW=DFOMEak44YfWAcOamjqQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFhq5B_-dmbN4MH2ZoRQ6e58AXiB4rxC=oZH8GUyTQh=fA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 11:46 AM, Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> That said, "brain damage" is an apt way to describe the TEA Party's takeover
> of the Republicans over the past decade or so.

### For a brain to be damaged, there has to be one, and cancers
usually don't have a brain (yes, I know about teratomas). The Tea
Party was one doomed attempt at healing our society but, as any
oncologist will tell you, tea tree oil doesn't cut it when the disease
is so deeply entrenched.

Rafal


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 03:09:48 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 23:09:48 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwYv3XUoaxZhDYvMCYYw55uwZNcd+ac-5VWqMLkzBU8txw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv12Vc4be8rpo1-KrzQ4H_=mNmXE2WhNCpfi3RFS132cdw@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAAc1gFgrUvGHeqDw+notavfhKBMcS9F5EMANy+Bnw9=HQhEmFQ@mail.gmail.com>

Eugen wrote:

>> Believe all you want, I'm done. Let's talk again in 20 years.

### Uh, finally!

This EROEI stuff has been really talked to death hereabouts, it's like
the identity thread.

Also, concentrating on it detracts from our ability to think about the
real challenges of our society, such as loss of economic feedback
loops, potentially dangerous social inhomogeneities, the coming robot
apocalypse, etc. Not that one could do something about them anyway but
at least we would go down arguing about stuff that matters. Plus,
there is a good chance that increased return on capital achieved
through AI and a well-managed transition to the robot society will
allow us to muddle through and maybe even flourish. So maybe it will
be all good, in 20 years.

Rafal


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 03:35:56 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 23:35:56 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 3:37 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> On Wed, Oct 09, 2013 at 12:16:05PM -0700, Keith Henson wrote:
>> > From: Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>
>>
>> > How many Eugens could you fit in the head of a pin (make it a sphere
>> > 3/16 inch diameter)?
>>
>> 27 years ago Eric Drexler worked this out and got around a 10 cm cube
>> "volume of a coffee cup" for a human capacity hardware.  With enough
>> power and cooling it would run a million times faster than a meat
>> state human.
>
> Nanosystems uses an engineering analysis based on diamond rod logic.
> Deliberately conservatively, in order to be easy analyzable. There
> are a few problematic assumptions there as well. So it is an answer,
> but not an exhaustive one.

### I am surprised that the estimate is so, well, bulky. 1 liter
volume is very close to actual human brain volume and I simply don't
believe our brain is anywhere near the limits of miniaturization.

There should be large improvements just from removing metabolism from
the brain. Human brain already does a little bit of that: Neurons
offload a lot of their metabolism (i.e. energy generation) onto glia
through lactate exchange. Instead of using a lot of real estate to
extract all chemical energy from glucose, neurons do a quick-and-dirty
glycolysis and let the glia pick up the pieces, allowing the neural
cytoplasm to do more computationally relevant chemistry, such as
processing of neurotransmitters, adjustment of synaptic strength, etc.

A designed neuromorphic device would be fed energy in a highly
computation-friendly form (DC current, light) just like today's
computers rather than using chemical precursors like our brain does,
and that alone should bring the volume down by a large percentage.

Rafal


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 03:45:17 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 23:45:17 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <9B616DA5-75FC-4D60-9CEF-92C7A256E2E2@me.com>
References: <mailman.46.1381294653.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <9B616DA5-75FC-4D60-9CEF-92C7A256E2E2@me.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFgQ76Jtk4dQ3EWfk=8S3ayYzukDxNkxvJZYdspubqUcAA@mail.gmail.com>

(I wrote)

Congress gave the president
> about 99% of the money he needs to run the government. The president
> refused to run the government, and shut it down. He could have taken
> the money and done his job but refused to.
>
> Do you agree that the president shut down the government?
>

Omar wrote:

> In a word; no.

### If not Mr Obama, then who shut down parts of the executive branch
of government, and precisely how did he do it? Name specific names and
describe the flow of legal authority and commands that achieved the
shutdown.

As you may remember from civics, members of the legislative branch do
not have the legal authority to issue commands to institutions of the
executive branch, except in some limited and relatively well-defined
situations.

So, who did it and how?

Rafal


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 03:53:05 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 23:53:05 -0400
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 6:24 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote

> > Now about that business of borrowing money to pay our debts, if we do
> that, we haven?t paid off any debts at all.  We just rearrange debts.
>
And yet our debtors remain happy and are more than willing to continue
loaning money to us just as they have for centuries and they will continue
to do so, unless we do something brain dead dumb. The thing that frightens
me is that the tea party members in the House are brain dead dumb.

> > He not only didn?t try to fix it, he switched sides.  His former
> argument regarding increasing the debt limit is far more convincing than
> the one he is using now.  How did massive borrowing become not a national
> threat, and not unpatriotic?
>
All politicians from both parties feel that they must make protest noises
every time the silly debt ceiling limit vote comes up, they have done so
every one of the 78 times since 1960 it's come up. And that's OK, people
expect it, just as you expect a dog to bark every time he sees a cat. What
is terrifying the markets, and me too, is that this time the politicians
might actually mean the idiotic things they are saying.

> ****
>
>  > I don?t understand who is still loaning money to the US,
>
If you contribute to a pension fund you're loaning money to the USA
whenever they buy a government bond, mutual funds also loan money to the
USA, and so do countless companies big and small who provide goods and
services to the government before they are paid.  And traditionally the
government could give lower interest rates for their bonds than even the
best corporations and people would still snap them up because people
perceived government bonds as the safest thing around. But starting about a
month ago for the first time in history and thanks entirely to the moron
Republicans in the house to sell government bonds they must provide more
interest than corporations do. That's what happens when you even hint that
maybe you'll default. And higher interest rates will only increase the debt
that the jackass Republicans say they are so concerned about.

>  > If we go with the assumption that wasteful spending is a good thing,
>
Nobody thinks wasteful spending is a good thing, and if you want to spend
less then spend less, but don't refuse to pay your bills because you now
feel that the purchases you already made (and were voted for in that same
House of Representatives that is now making such a fuss) were unwise.

> > My prediction is that the congress will eventually compromise and pass
> some kind of budget, perhaps a pumped-up version of sequestration.  Life
> will go on.
>
Life will not go on if they refuse to raise the debt ceiling, at least not
as it has before.  A worldwide 1930's style depression would not be fun,
but that's what we're staring at thanks to dimwit Republicans, they're so
stupid they make George Bush look like an economic genius, and that's not
easy to do.

  John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Fri Oct 11 03:46:04 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 20:46:04 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <02c101cec634$69a98740$3cfc95c0$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Rafal Smigrodzki


### I am surprised that the estimate is so, well, bulky. 1 liter volume is
very close to actual human brain volume and I simply don't believe our brain
is anywhere near the limits of miniaturization...Rafal
_______________________________________________

In all these kinds of calculations we are locked into a paradigm that was
handed to us by evolution: brains exist as individual units.  We need to
think of ways in which silicon based intelligence can work together in teams
far more effectively than we carbon units can ever do.  We have all this
evolutionary baggage we just cannot seem to shed.  But silicon intelligence
evolved along a different path.  For this reason we have reason to hope that
a human brain equivalent might be made up of a few thousand units of a cubic
millimeter each.  This approach allows a large surface area to volume ratio,
for heat rejection, as well as flexibility unavailable to us meat brains.

Like the ants and bees, perhaps we can create individual units which are
stupid, but together they could do some really smart stuff.

spike



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 04:17:02 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 00:17:02 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Term limits
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFiuP5b3_5y2A0rinxs9+fVTO3CT_18WbaGHnruqeCyt3Q@mail.gmail.com>

One of the greatest dangers to our society is the unbridled growth of
the fourth branch of government, bureaucrats of the myriad federal
agencies. These organizations are uniquely detrimental to normal
functioning of the society, due to being largely outside of the web of
feedback loops that restrains erroneous behaviors in the civilized
world and due to their enormous size and reach in all aspects of our
society.

A key feature of these bureaucrats is their permanence - no matter the
level of misconduct or incompetence, a federal agency never dies, and
a bureaucrat smart enough to cover his ass with enough paper never
gets fired. This is not a uniquely American situation, but rather a
general feature of state organization. In many countries there are
periodic attempts at cleaning out the Augean stables but these are
usually propaganda exercises or internecine warfare among various
bureaucratic factions, doomed to failure as a way of improving
quality.

However, there *is* a way to make the bureaucracy less dangerous:
Impose employment duration limits on all federal executive branch
employees (maybe except the DoD). Instead of having lifers, and a
revolving door, have temps (at most 10 years allowed on government
pay) and a rocket-assisted chute, kicking them out back into the ranks
of honest (i.e. not tax-supported) citizenry before they get too fond
of their power. If we kick out the president after eight years, why
would we keep the regular pen-pushers forever?

This tweak to the Civil Service Act would reduce the chasm between the
goons of the EPA, IRS, or OSHA, and their subjects, us. We would be
one again, since most people would end up temping at the government at
some time, continuously bringing in an outside perspective to these
insider machines. And before inventing yet another stupid law, a temp
might hesitate and think about how it might feel once he is on the
receiving end of the stick.

Rafal


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 04:32:08 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 00:32:08 -0400
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 11:53 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> Life will not go on if they refuse to raise the debt ceiling, at least not
> as it has before.

### Default and the debt ceiling are two separate issues. The
government can easily pay its debts and of course, it should.
Increasing the debt ceiling, for the 79th time, is a whole different
thing. There is absolutely no need to do it: They could just stop
spending too much, for example by instituting immediate across the
board cuts in all appropriations, including the DoD, various
"entitlements" and every single government agency. Unfortunately and
of course, they won't use this approach.

Rafal


From spike66 at att.net  Fri Oct 11 04:38:30 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 21:38:30 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFgQ76Jtk4dQ3EWfk=8S3ayYzukDxNkxvJZYdspubqUcAA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.46.1381294653.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <9B616DA5-75FC-4D60-9CEF-92C7A256E2E2@me.com>
 <CAAc1gFgQ76Jtk4dQ3EWfk=8S3ayYzukDxNkxvJZYdspubqUcAA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <02e901cec63b$bcd3a480$367aed80$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Rafal Smigrodzki

>...As you may remember from civics, members of the legislative branch do
not have the legal authority to issue commands to institutions of the
executive branch, except in some limited and relatively well-defined
situations...Rafal
_______________________________________________

If I can find a silver lining in this dark cloud, it has all been a most
wonderful civics lesson.  I am tempted to be optimistic regarding what I
heard this evening: both sides of this conflict seem to have grown a brain.
The president is as protective of his healthcare scheme as a mama grizzly
bear.  No surprise there, it has his name on it.  So, OK, let that stand.
We will find out soon enough if that whole thing will work or not.  I am
predicting not.  

Then we find enough cuts somewhere else.  Do like we did with sequestration:
balance the cuts between domestic and military spending, but find the cuts
and keep cutting and when we finish cutting, cut some more.  Extend the debt
ceiling a hundred billion at a time, so really all congress is doing is
finding cuts.  There are places they can cut.  They must.

This is all turning out to be a test case which has been needed since the
days of Keynes and Hayek.  I have never been able to convince myself that we
can overspend long term and survive any better than the commies could in the
80s.

spike



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 04:58:16 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 00:58:16 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2fy9d=TSE9fk=ABq6N8HmNViGmnLtO6oEuNHwN1JCX5g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv0yhTD4HE8aXkDOYtkwr01-W0RLdKXB-BXON2Wwks_9SA@mail.gmail.com>
 <52519BAF.7020308@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv2NBUnG3t+oCP1YTpX4zc=h8+L=+BAzf2F7BYnXpZeLnA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFgE0f5kyRhCwAueTmD9FsbFh=CT8XA55vSNMogJFc2D_w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2fy9d=TSE9fk=ABq6N8HmNViGmnLtO6oEuNHwN1JCX5g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFjHh9gQmawHhy84sEHWNRDikuHPpd6KaN845XGL+exKXQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 10:18 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 1:11 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki
> <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> > You need to take into account the damage introduced during mechanical
>> > slicing. Even a single bad slice (torn, crushed, happens all the time, as
>> > anybody who spent hours at a microtome can attest) could scramble the
>> > long-distance fibers
>
>
> I'm no expert but just from my experience of using a meat slicer I would
> think mangled slices could be a problem if you were trying to make the
> slices super thin, but I'm talking about slices on the order of a centimeter
> thick or maybe even more, and only about a dozen slices. And if the blade
> was sharp and the gap between the slices narrow it should be possible to
> deduce what those long-distance fibers did in that missing gap.

### This might be an option, especially with brains that cannot be
perfused because they spent too much time in ischemia and there was
blood clotting in the vessels. Such brains might be a lost cause
anyway but who knows, fixation by immersion might here be better than
bulk freezing. Either way, you want to avoid this situation.

-------------------------
 And whatever
> method was used wouldn't slices ensure better distribution of cryoprotective
> or chemical fixative than entire uncut brains?

### Perfusion always gives better distribution than immersion. You
really want to avoid a situation where perfusion, whether cryo or
fixative, is no longer possible. If slicing is your only option, you
might be toast anyway.

Let me put it this way: Either you are perfusable or not. If yes, then
we can argue about the relative merits of cryoperfusion vs. fixative
perfusion, and I will grant this is not an open-and-shut case. If you
are not perfusable, the damage induced by slicing might be the least
of your worries and the whole exercise might be futile, although
fixation by immersion followed by sucrose gradient and cryogenic
storage might be the best of your (dismal) options.

Rafal


Rafal


From spike66 at att.net  Fri Oct 11 04:55:08 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 21:55:08 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <02ea01cec63e$0fcf29f0$2f6d7dd0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark



>.And traditionally the government could give lower interest rates for their
bonds than even the best corporations and people would still snap them up
because people perceived government bonds as the safest thing around. But
starting about a month ago for the first time in history and thanks entirely
to the moron Republicans in the house to sell government bonds they must
provide more interest than corporations do.  John K Clark  

 

I see this as a good thing.  We loan money to the government, they waste it.
Loan money to corporations, they turn it into more money.  If government
bonds are seen as appropriately risky, money will flow to corporations and
small businesses instead.  We cannot let our government be so dependent on
selling bonds at a hundred billion dollars a month just to survive, like
some kind of desperate enormous heroin addict with nukes.

 

John eventually this whole house of cards had to come down eventually.  You
have seen the CBC extrapolations.  Generations past have said to hell with
us, just as you suggested in an earlier post that we say to hell with future
generations.  Past generations borrowed our money, assuming the future
economy would be bigger.  Now we are suffering the consequences, as we are
entering a long term slower growth era.  We risk borrowing from future
generations who might be no richer, and perhaps poorer than we are today.
We need to stop doing this forthwith.

 

I do not wish to have my frozen head in the hands of some future generation
which I had to-hell-with-ed, deciding if I am worth uploading.  All our
fondest extropian hopes and dreams depend on a prosperous future.  If we
overspend now, in peacetime, what chance have we?  Let's get this
overspending problem under control, starting now.

 

spike 



 

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From spike66 at att.net  Fri Oct 11 05:03:53 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 22:03:53 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Rafal Smigrodzki
Subject: Re: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
Euthanasia

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 11:53 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

>
>>... Life will not go on if they refuse to raise the debt ceiling, at least
not as it has before.

### Default and the debt ceiling are two separate issues. The government can
easily pay its debts and of course, it should.
Increasing the debt ceiling, for the 79th time, is a whole different thing.
There is absolutely no need to do it: They could just stop spending too
much, for example by instituting immediate across the board cuts in all
appropriations, including the DoD, various "entitlements" and every single
government agency. Unfortunately and of course, they won't use this
approach.

Rafal
_______________________________________________


Ja, agree.  The fed can pay its debts with what it takes in now, but it will
take deep cuts in what it spends.  Is it not clear to everyone on the planet
that our military is of such a size that it is not sustainable?  We try to
maintain the ability to simultaneously fight two wars, sheesh.  Let's work
harder at keeping it to one or fewer at a time.  The cold war is over, we
won, humanity won, let's get over that and find deep cuts.  Let's balance
that with domestic cuts; we can do it, and we must.  There will be pain, but
(Rafal, here's a medical allusion for you) I see it as cutting out a cancer
without anesthesia.  Sure it will hurt like all hell, but it beats the
alternative.

spike



From rahmans at me.com  Fri Oct 11 08:33:35 2013
From: rahmans at me.com (Omar Rahman)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 10:33:35 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <mailman.69.1381463594.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.69.1381463594.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <755D81DC-0949-4A64-A634-C225E3A0596F@me.com>

> 
> Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 23:45:17 -0400
> From: Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>
> To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie
> 	Apocalypse!)
> Message-ID:
> 	<CAAc1gFgQ76Jtk4dQ3EWfk=8S3ayYzukDxNkxvJZYdspubqUcAA at mail.gmail.com>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
> 
> (I wrote)
> 
> Congress gave the president
>> about 99% of the money he needs to run the government. The president
>> refused to run the government, and shut it down. He could have taken
>> the money and done his job but refused to.
>> 
>> Do you agree that the president shut down the government?
>> 
> 
> Omar wrote:
> 
>> In a word; no.

You said, "Congress gave the president about 99% of the money he needs to run the government." This is just plain wrong.

Congress is a bicameral legislature and it failed to pass an appropriations bill. The president had nothing to sign or veto, hence the president didn't shut down the government.

Are these two sentences clear enough for you?

If some sort of mangled appropriations bill had landed on the president's desk defunding some important program,(You pick whatever you like/dislike.....it doesn't matter for this example.), the president has the option to veto it. In the case of a stalemate, Congress has some sort of mechanisms for forcing a bill to become law but I believe it involves 2/3 majorities in both the House and the Senate.

What is far more likely to happen, as pointed to by the repeated use of the phrase "full faith and confidence of the government of the United States" by the president, is that this will reach a crisis level equal to that of a "national emergency" and the president will then be able to use "emergency powers" to resolve the standoff.

I'm guessing that even the most fanatical, racist, and fascist elements of the Tea Party will cave in before then. They should be called the Koolaid Party because they really seem to have 'drunk the koolaid'.

> 
> ### If not Mr Obama, then who shut down parts of the executive branch
> of government, and precisely how did he do it? Name specific names and
> describe the flow of legal authority and commands that achieved the
> shutdown.
> 
> As you may remember from civics, members of the legislative branch do
> not have the legal authority to issue commands to institutions of the
> executive branch, except in some limited and relatively well-defined
> situations.
> 
> So, who did it and how?
> 
> Rafal


I'm sure that I don't want to delve into the specifics of how and why each element and/or employee of the government that is 'shutdown' is 'shutdown' as this would devolve into an argument about bureaucratic trivialities. But more than that I certainly wouldn't want to try to give specifics about unspecified specifics. Moreover, I don't feel that I could do this precisely.

In general; "He of the Orange glow and Weepy eyes" afraid of the "Brethren of Koolaid" who made loud 'ugg ugg' for many time in the place of 50 clan chiefs. Great sky spirt X, Y, and Z has revealed to the Brethren of Koolaid that most harmful thing for people is 'healthcare' and best thing for people is big more guns. Now the Brethren of Koolaid make loud 'ugg ugg' in all place and no give gold rocks to nobody never nohow nowhen nowhy. NO  NO NO! UGG UGG!

Until Main Street, Wall Street, and K Street finally have had enough and kick them right where they will say 'UGG uggg uggggg....'

Are we clear?

As Yoda I could talk, if help it would? ( Remember that? =D)

Regards,

Omar Rahman





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From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Oct 11 08:37:30 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 10:37:30 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 11:35:56PM -0400, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> On Wed, Oct 9, 2013 at 3:37 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
> > On Wed, Oct 09, 2013 at 12:16:05PM -0700, Keith Henson wrote:
> >> > From: Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>
> >>
> >> > How many Eugens could you fit in the head of a pin (make it a sphere
> >> > 3/16 inch diameter)?
> >>
> >> 27 years ago Eric Drexler worked this out and got around a 10 cm cube
> >> "volume of a coffee cup" for a human capacity hardware.  With enough
> >> power and cooling it would run a million times faster than a meat
> >> state human.
> >
> > Nanosystems uses an engineering analysis based on diamond rod logic.
> > Deliberately conservatively, in order to be easy analyzable. There
> > are a few problematic assumptions there as well. So it is an answer,
> > but not an exhaustive one.
> 
> ### I am surprised that the estimate is so, well, bulky. 1 liter
> volume is very close to actual human brain volume and I simply don't
> believe our brain is anywhere near the limits of miniaturization.

I agree. However, there's a widespread tendency to underestimate
what evolutionary-driven biology has managed to accomplish in 
a few gigayears. A synapse is pretty damn small

http://www.nature.com/nrn/journal/v12/n7/box/nrn3025_BX2.html

Characteristic sizes of the synaptic complex

Synaptic active zone diameter: 300 ? 150 nm
Synaptic vesicle diameter: 35 ? 0.3 up to 50 nm
Synaptic cleft width: 20 ? 2.8 nm
Number of docked vesicles: 10 ? 5
Total number of vesicle per synaptic bouton: 270 ? 180
 
> There should be large improvements just from removing metabolism from
> the brain. Human brain already does a little bit of that: Neurons

Metabolism is dual-use here, because the elements are active.
You can complain about hydration, but diffusion is very efficient
on microscale, and there *is* active transport. We can complain
about homeostasis, but hardware configurability depends on
the same mechanisms. In nanoscale solid-state you're pretty much
limited to arrays of static elements with very low intrinsic 
connectivity, so you have to state the network layer in terms
of such syntax. Look at 10^4 connectivity, and look at the
space it takes. There are different computational paradigms
than this, but they're incredibly complex and opaque to
top-layer us. Useful for ALife from scratch, but very hard
to compile digitized neuoanatomy/connectome into such a wildy
different paradigm.

> offload a lot of their metabolism (i.e. energy generation) onto glia
> through lactate exchange. Instead of using a lot of real estate to

Glia are far from being just glue, so anyone who thinks glia can
be thrown away will experience an unexpected surprise.

> extract all chemical energy from glucose, neurons do a quick-and-dirty
> glycolysis and let the glia pick up the pieces, allowing the neural
> cytoplasm to do more computationally relevant chemistry, such as
> processing of neurotransmitters, adjustment of synaptic strength, etc.
> 
> A designed neuromorphic device would be fed energy in a highly
> computation-friendly form (DC current, light) just like today's
> computers rather than using chemical precursors like our brain does,
> and that alone should bring the volume down by a large percentage.

100-1 cm^3 vs. ~1400 cm^3 is a very large percentage. The exact
number is not known, because the mode of computation is very
different. The only way to know for sure is to run benchmarks
on your wet/hardware targets, which you can't. A way to assess
would be to compare ALife and wet life solutions to the same,
simple problem. E.g the retina or cochlea would be a good playground.


From anders at aleph.se  Fri Oct 11 08:49:30 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 09:49:30 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <02c101cec634$69a98740$3cfc95c0$@att.net>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <02c101cec634$69a98740$3cfc95c0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <5257BB9A.9010501@aleph.se>

> ### I am surprised that the estimate is so, well, bulky. 1 liter 
> volume is very close to actual human brain volume and I simply don't 
> believe our brain is anywhere near the limits of miniaturization...Rafal 

The typical estimates work by assuming a scale, counting the number of 
things on the scale, estimating the computational requirements per 
thing, a conversion factor from computation to physical resources in an 
artificial system, and then multiplying. There are plenty of 
arbitrariness here, a bit like using the Drake equation. Especially the 
scale choice can totally change things without looking like a massive 
assumption.

Personally I suspect a straight mapping brain-to-solidstate will have to 
be bulky, while a functional mapping can be very small.

On 2013-10-11 04:46, spike wrote:
> In all these kinds of calculations we are locked into a paradigm that 
> was handed to us by evolution: brains exist as individual units. We 
> need to think of ways in which silicon based intelligence can work 
> together in teams far more effectively than we carbon units can ever do.

If you have program A and program B, with goal 1 and 2 respectively, 
there can exist a program AB that achieves both goals in some optimal 
tradeoff and saves resources by combining A and B (think shared 
libraries and no risk for conflict). So under some conditions it is 
rational to merge software into bigger systems. Humans typically balk at 
this because their goals include existing as themselves, and these 
lexical goals are incompatible with the merging. But other software will 
disagree. And the uploads in my big data center will not care that they 
are sharing underlying hardware and software as long as their data and 
processes are kept in separate virtual machines.

Biobrains are messy: creating good interfaces to them is hard.


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Oct 11 09:27:45 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 11:27:45 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFgrUvGHeqDw+notavfhKBMcS9F5EMANy+Bnw9=HQhEmFQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <op.w31sxyu40wog37@kira> <20130927055747.GI10405@leitl.org>
 <op.w369gtne0wog37@kira> <20131001121829.GR10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8Rwbbb2pzn0xFQ=ytkVj3UAASS5HOiB4Uk+=4Oui7RHCEDQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131009203347.GA10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwbRBYCH0eCGFpHqe3XyHynjhp_Qc7dE+XtrNJcD1hnfCQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131010062556.GF10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwYv3XUoaxZhDYvMCYYw55uwZNcd+ac-5VWqMLkzBU8txw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFgrUvGHeqDw+notavfhKBMcS9F5EMANy+Bnw9=HQhEmFQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131011092745.GC10405@leitl.org>

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 11:09:48PM -0400, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> Eugen wrote:
> 
> >> Believe all you want, I'm done. Let's talk again in 20 years.
> 
> ### Uh, finally!
> 
> This EROEI stuff has been really talked to death hereabouts, it's like
> the identity thread.
> 
> Also, concentrating on it detracts from our ability to think about the
> real challenges of our society, such as loss of economic feedback

Thermodynamics trumps economics. I tend to focus on thermodynamics
vs. ecology because it's both a short-term large-scale problem
and also a benchmark. It's useless trying to explain
generic overshoot if you can't explain the one facet of it:
the energy limitations. It's simple problem, we have lots of 
empirical data, yet that benchmark already indicates a failure.

The majority of peakers at this point have given up on the
whole Cassandra business, and focus on bringing their own house in
order. These people are obviously far smarter than me. 

> loops, potentially dangerous social inhomogeneities, the coming robot

These are secondary and tertiary problems. These are alleviated
or at least delayed if your nail your primary dysfunctions.

> apocalypse, etc. Not that one could do something about them anyway but

The robot apocalypse is a long-term problem, and will not be at
all a problem if we lose the ability to maintain nevermind advance
technology necessary for autonomous automation.

> at least we would go down arguing about stuff that matters. Plus,
> there is a good chance that increased return on capital achieved
> through AI and a well-managed transition to the robot society will
> allow us to muddle through and maybe even flourish. So maybe it will
> be all good, in 20 years.

If we continue on this course, for the majority of the world
population 2030 would suck immensely more than 2013. Whether
this directly translates to where you sit then is another 
matter. Wealth and location can insulate, for a while. 


From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Oct 11 09:39:52 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 11:39:52 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <5257BB9A.9010501@aleph.se>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <02c101cec634$69a98740$3cfc95c0$@att.net>
 <5257BB9A.9010501@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20131011093952.GE10405@leitl.org>

On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 09:49:30AM +0100, Anders Sandberg wrote:

> merging. But other software will disagree. And the uploads in my big
> data center will not care that they are sharing underlying hardware
> and software as long as their data and processes are kept in
> separate virtual machines.

This is one of the rare cases where you're mistaken, Anders.
All the other points are spot on.

Context switches make things slower, if your system is
100% loaded. The more state you have to save and restore,
the slower. In a simulation, it's all state.

This is why supercomputers use batching, running until
done, and never multitask between jobs.

So if you have to twiddle 10^21 bits or more
very rapidly, they stay where they are. There
is only I/O, and occasional snapshot, which
needs to be serialized when transported out
of the computational volume. Notice that snapshot
and transport circuitry either make you stop
until done, or dilute the effective computation
concentration per volume, making things slower
on the average.

Fast and energy-efficient means there's risk.


From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Oct 11 11:25:45 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 13:25:45 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [New_Cryonet] Invitation to join an online conversation this
	Sunday
Message-ID: <20131011112545.GU10405@leitl.org>

----- Forwarded message from chriscorte01 at yahoo.com -----

Date: 10 Oct 2013 17:02:19 -0700
From: chriscorte01 at yahoo.com
To: New_Cryonet at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [New_Cryonet] Invitation to join an online conversation this Sunday
Message-ID: <l37f6b+h67hu9 at YahooGroups.com>
X-Mailer: Yahoo Groups Message Poster
Reply-To: New_Cryonet at yahoogroups.com

 Anyone interested in cryonics and transhumanism is invited to join in an online discussion this Sunday at 11:30 A.M. PST. 
 
Our previous conversations have been lively, entertaining and have covered a wide range of topics. These chats are a great way to meet like-minded people, make personal connections and help us build a stronger cryonics community. We now have a Meetup pagehttp://www.meetup.com/Transhumanism-and-Cryonics-Online-Conversation-Group/ http://www.meetup.com/Transhumanism-and-Cryonics-Online-Conversation-Group/ .

If you would like to join us, just send an email to kekik2336 at .... On Sunday at 11:30 you'll receive an email from Google+ inviting you to join the Hangout. Just click the link and join in the conversation. You'll need to sign up for a Google+ account to access the Hangout.

No one will mind if you use a pseudonym and the software allows you to mask your identity on the video. Of course, your privacy will be respected. No part of our discussion will be reproduced, broadcast or recorded. 
 

 
 

 

----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://ativel.com http://postbiota.org
AC894EC5: 38A5 5F46 A4FF 59B8 336B  47EE F46E 3489 AC89 4EC5


From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Oct 11 12:21:26 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 14:21:26 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131011122126.GA10405@leitl.org>

On Sat, Oct 05, 2013 at 07:07:27PM -0400, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:

> I do think that both approaches, vitrification and fixation, should
> be further researched, as much as our limited resources allow but for
> now vitrification is still the better way to go.

It is a question of budget, priorities, and fundamental issues
like presence or absence of feedback. 

Right now the priorities are should be on achieving decent
results in the field, and that is far from being a solved
problem.

If there's a poor cryonics presence in your area, don't
expect that by paying your member dues the situation will magically
fix itself. You have to become a little more proactive.

Many people all over the world are facing that problem, let's
organize, that everybody can help themselves.


From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 12:38:50 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 05:38:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] [New_Cryonet] Invitation to join an online conversation this
	Sunday
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB5iODiq0tpWkAf8NkPsWuCxr_AL76LrJea_TROYqhoTmw@mail.gmail.com>

snip

If you would like to join us, just send an email to kekik2336 at .... On
Sunday at 11:30 you'll receive an email from Google+

snip

That email didn't come through.

Keith


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 15:16:14 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 11:16:14 -0400
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv1QMi4xgNAqhREH4hgazKNTR36pXhHzaeMKLf1J_QfnDQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 12:32 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:

> Default and the debt ceiling are two separate issues.
>

Yes.


> > The government can easily pay its debts


Bullshit.


> > and of course, it should.
>

Yes.


> > Increasing the debt ceiling, for the 79th time, is a whole different
> thing.


Yes, it's one more than 78. Every dime spent by government was authorized
and voted on by the House of Representatives and every tax was also
authorized and voted on by the House of Representatives, they knew at the
time that those 2 things were not equal so the only way to pay for the
things THAT THEY ALREADY VOTED TO BUY, is to borrow money. And now in the
name of fiscal responsibility they are going to break their word and refuse
to do what they promised to do.

>There is absolutely no need to do it:


BULLSHIT!

> They could just stop spending too much, for example by instituting
> immediate across the
> board cuts in all appropriations, including the DoD, various
> "entitlements"


The cost to run the DoD is trivial compared with entitlements (social
security, Medicare, veterans benefits, etc). You could argue, and I would
too, that the entitlements should never have been instituted in the first
place, but the fact is they were and so like it or not they are the law of
the land, and until the law is changed legally those debts are just as
legitimate as any other debts. So will the law be changed? To do that a
RADICAL bill would have to be passed by both houses and signed by the
president, and there is zero chance of that happening. Let me be clear, I'm
not saying the chances are almost zero I am saying they are ZERO. Those
programs are very popular, so even the republican imbeciles who are
screaming the loudest would vote against eliminating social security or
Medicare or veterans benefits because the most rabid tea party voters back
in their home districts tend to be old and they want the government to stop
handing out money to everybody EXCEPT to people just like them.

So yes we don't live in a libertarian paradise and we are so many light
years from it that there is virtually no chance of getting there from here;
so we must settle for something less and our present system, despite its
many many faults, is one hell of a lot better than the worldwide economic
chaos that would result in the government of the USA defaulting on its
legal debts for the first time in history, and unless the Republicans find
a brain that is exactly what is going to happen just 7 days from today.

 John K Clark
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From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Oct 11 15:28:26 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 17:28:26 +0200
Subject: [ExI] funding Tor development
Message-ID: <20131011152826.GH10405@leitl.org>


Guys, in order to minimize Tor Project's dependance on
federal funding and/or increase what they can do it
would be great to have some additional funding ~10 kUSD/month.

If anyone is aware of anyone who can provide funding at
that level or higher, please contact execdir at torproject.org


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 15:34:06 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 11:34:06 -0400
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 1:03 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> The fed can pay its debts with what it takes in now,


No Spike, it can not.

> but it will take deep cuts in what it spends.  Is it not clear to
> everyone on the planet that our military is of such a size that it is not
> sustainable?  We try to maintain the ability to simultaneously fight two
> wars, sheesh.  Let's work harder at keeping it to one or fewer at a time.
>  The cold war is over, we won, humanity won, let's get over that and find
> deep cuts.  Let's balance
> that with domestic cuts;


That's all well and good Spike and I agree with much of what you say, but
right now I'm not interested in the long term, I'm far far more interested
in the lurking catastrophe that is set to strike in just 7 days if we break
our promise and don't pay for things that we already bought.

  John K Clark
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From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 16:09:40 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 09:09:40 -0700
Subject: [ExI] funding Tor development
In-Reply-To: <20131011152826.GH10405@leitl.org>
References: <20131011152826.GH10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQV=TUmFwYC6n7vVHg70qt4uqDHHEXYj9yzaUCeA5TpkQ@mail.gmail.com>

A series of Kickstarters, to fund a series of one-off improvements that
will be shared.

Another possibility: add a button to some popular Tor clients that lets
people donate via Paypal (or Bitcoins, preferably linked to the non-largest
exchanges to lessen the chances of the linked exchanges being subverted).


On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 8:28 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

>
> Guys, in order to minimize Tor Project's dependance on
> federal funding and/or increase what they can do it
> would be great to have some additional funding ~10 kUSD/month.
>
> If anyone is aware of anyone who can provide funding at
> that level or higher, please contact execdir at torproject.org
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 16:12:00 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 09:12:00 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Talk at Google last July
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB5Ryz3EY2Mrao3rSzFyFQhqauPaWt1G-38X-fYhy35fkg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB5Ryz3EY2Mrao3rSzFyFQhqauPaWt1G-38X-fYhy35fkg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTkTjJUPHD4i5w7q6jor1g_YTPuWyH=6dCXfWd65X=f0Q@mail.gmail.com>

That document does not appear to be publicly shared.  When I click the
link, I get "access denied".

Also, a better summary would be appreciated.  "One way to solve" could mean
a bunch of things, from the we-could-do-it-today to the
impossible-in-this-universe.


On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 5:28 PM, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com>wrote:

>
> https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5N71bNMoGurLTNJMTJ1cm1wTk0/edit?usp=sharing
>
> It's most of an hour and ~130 MB streaming.
>
> For those who really want to know one way to solve
> energy/carbon/climate/economic problems.
>
> Keith
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Oct 11 16:25:57 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 18:25:57 +0200
Subject: [ExI] funding Tor development
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQV=TUmFwYC6n7vVHg70qt4uqDHHEXYj9yzaUCeA5TpkQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20131011152826.GH10405@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQV=TUmFwYC6n7vVHg70qt4uqDHHEXYj9yzaUCeA5TpkQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131011162557.GL10405@leitl.org>

On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 09:09:40AM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:
> A series of Kickstarters, to fund a series of one-off improvements that
> will be shared.

Thanks, have received the same suggestion elsewhere.
 
> Another possibility: add a button to some popular Tor clients that lets
> people donate via Paypal (or Bitcoins, preferably linked to the non-largest
> exchanges to lessen the chances of the linked exchanges being subverted).

BTC would be preferrable obviously, Paypal are known to play dirty.


From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 16:30:54 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 09:30:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] funding Tor development
In-Reply-To: <20131011162557.GL10405@leitl.org>
References: <20131011152826.GH10405@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQV=TUmFwYC6n7vVHg70qt4uqDHHEXYj9yzaUCeA5TpkQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011162557.GL10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTcpMfNDOaE7gu7ZaW3E2OW0QbhhQjJeko221fq1UxzNg@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 9:25 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> > Another possibility: add a button to some popular Tor clients that lets
> > people donate via Paypal (or Bitcoins, preferably linked to the
> non-largest
> > exchanges to lessen the chances of the linked exchanges being subverted).
>
> BTC would be preferrable obviously, Paypal are known to play dirty.
>

Anyone who deals in actual $ plays dirty.  Paypal isn't the only option,
though; you may wish to research online payment processors.
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From spike66 at att.net  Fri Oct 11 17:00:31 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 10:00:31 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1QMi4xgNAqhREH4hgazKNTR36pXhHzaeMKLf1J_QfnDQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv1QMi4xgNAqhREH4hgazKNTR36pXhHzaeMKLf1J_QfnDQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <018f01cec6a3$65c4ac80$314e0580$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark
Subject: Re: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
Euthanasia

 

>.Every dime spent by government was authorized and voted on by the House of
Representatives and every tax was also authorized and voted on by the House
of Representatives, they knew at the time that those 2 things were not equal
so the only way to pay for the things THAT THEY ALREADY VOTED TO BUY, is to
borrow money.

Or vote to buy less now.  Waaaaay less now.  Scale back almost everything
the government is doing, not by choice but because we have used up our
credit rating.  

>.And now in the name of fiscal responsibility they are going to break their
word and refuse to do what they promised to do.  John K Clark

 

They promised to do what they cannot do.  In the early 2000s, the congress
bet the economy would grow enough to accommodate the wild spending spree of
those heady days.  The economy didn't grow at the assumed pace.  Now we must
face up to the bills that were run up during that period.  This is the
democrat's big chance to say It's all Bush's fault.  They would be right
this time, or half right.  They have already borrowed our Social Security
savings and spent it without means to repay, so those of our generation are
screwed when we reach retirement age.  What do we mortgage next?  

Overspending is unpatriotic, it represents a threat to national security, a
failure in leadership.  Our current president could read off his
teleprompter word for word the speech he made in 2006, for it is more true
now than it was then.  Instead he disowns it.  Why?  Instead, congress
brings in another far bigger wild overspending program.

Sheesh.

At some point, the US will go into massive default.  It only gets worse the
longer we wait.

spike

 

 

 

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From spike66 at att.net  Fri Oct 11 18:13:15 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 11:13:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark



>.That's all well and good Spike and I agree with much of what you say, but
right now I'm not interested in the long term, I'm far far more interested
in the lurking catastrophe that is set to strike in just 7 days if we break
our promise and don't pay for things that we already bought.

  John K Clark.

 

They are not going to default John.  There are contingencies they haven't
told us about.  There's still a lot of gold in Ft. Knox that belongs to the
government, strategic oil reserves that can be sold.  Why the hell are we
still be stockpiling physical gold?  They can furlough indefinitely those
government employees currently on furlough.  Some leave for other
employment, so it cuts the budget by brute force.  

 

These are all unpalatable options of course, but plenty of the bad choices
in front of us are better than defaulting.  This default talk is meant to
scare, political posturing all of it.  The 2016 presidential election is one
of those unusual chaotic times like 2008 when there is likely to be no
incumbent in the race.  Ted Cruz is already running for president, Paul Ryan
is running, Rand Paul, Joe Biden, Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, Darrell Issa,
possibly even Harry Reid and John Boehner, a bunch of others are trying to
find a way to wrangle a political advantage anticipating a run for the White
House, struggling to not let a perfectly good crisis go to waste.  None of
these guys are going to risk a run on the banks, or any of that really bad
stuff they said could happen if the fed defaults.  They won't default.

 

spike  

 

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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 18:46:51 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 12:46:51 -0600
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZrKk8c8oOCxt3uDfu+iUgyM3pbDLNTxUWCEzdB1Zf66Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 4:24 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> How did massive borrowing become not a national threat, and not
> unpatriotic?
>

I heard an interesting argument from a reasonably smart person that
continued growth of the US economy would keep the debt from ever becoming a
major problem. Now if the economy stops growing at a good pace, we're all
screwed. So it does seem extremely dangerous to make the assumption. But it
is a kind of interesting argument. It's another way to print money, in
other words. Like fractional banking.

> ****
>
> I don?t understand who is still loaning money to the US, and why.
>

Because you need to loan your money to someone. Someone who is safe.
Imagine you are a ChiCom, and you have to put your country's money in a
safe place. There are a limited number of safe places, and you have a lot
of money. In addition, there is the political leverage that money earns you
over the US government.

In this cartoon, which fox represents China and which the United States
after this transaction?

http://bit.ly/15Zjc7a





> If you were a banker and some yahoo came in saying he needed to borrow
> money to pay interest on what he has already borrowed, you would say that
> guy is bankrupt.  Not will go bankrupt, but is now.  We have a president
> who says raising the  borrowing limit doesn?t add to the debt.  How does
> that work?  Do we have two different definitions of the term debt?
>

Yes. Public debt and private debt are immensely different beasties.


> Hmmm, perhaps.  But maybe not.  We have held assumptions of exponential
> growth forever, and based all our spending on that assumption.  What
> happens if future generations are not as rich as we are?
>
Then there will be big trouble.

>   Then we have borrowed their money and spent it on the craziest stuff:
> http://www.businessinsider.com/newly-built-aircraft-set-to-go-straight-to-desert-boneyard-2013-10
>
A great example of government stupidity. Of course, those planes will last
a LONG time in Arizona, and may eventually get put to use.

> If we go with the assumption that wasteful spending is a good thing, why
> not waste it on something that might somehow pay in the future, like
> manufacturing and warehousing billions in solar panels and inverters?  If
> we are just wasting the money anyway, why not waste it on that?  You can
> get a lot of solar panels for the price of one useless cargo plane.
>
Well, the cargo plane props up the military-industrial complex... there is
that.

> My prediction is that the congress will eventually compromise and pass
> some kind of budget, perhaps a pumped-up version of sequestration.  Life
> will go on.  Eventually the economy will grow enough to accommodate the
> spending level we have sustained for the past five years.
>
Perhaps. But the economy is growing more slowly because of the increased
spending levels. I fear it won't get better until we elect more responsible
leaders.

> We have seen already that there is plenty of room to cut government.  The
> sequestration cuts they have made so far were so nearly painless, they had
> to go out of their way to make the cuts annoying.
>
Yup.

> I got a call this morning from where we had reservations to camp next
> weekend, saying the fed had closed the campground.  They didn?t refund my
> reservation money.  I have gone up into the Sierras every fall for the last
> several years and I have never seen a federal agent anywhere.  So closing
> that campground didn?t save the government anything, not one dollar.  They
> did it just to make life difficult.  So I say very well, close the
> campgrounds and monuments, keep the pressure on congress.  Do a version of
> healthcare which does not require government subsidy.  Give a temporary
> debt limit increase, say 100 billion dollars, then let?s go at it again,
> extract a few cuts and give them another 100 billion when that is gone.
> Let?s get on with it, but not by just borrowing more and more and more
> money.  It?s unpatriotic.  It?s a national security threat.
>
Eventually, it is a national security threat. The question is just how long
do we have before it is?

-Kelly
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From spike66 at att.net  Fri Oct 11 19:29:30 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 12:29:30 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZrKk8c8oOCxt3uDfu+iUgyM3pbDLNTxUWCEzdB1Zf66Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwZrKk8c8oOCxt3uDfu+iUgyM3pbDLNTxUWCEzdB1Zf66Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <028c01cec6b8$3616f780$a244e680$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Kelly Anderson
.

>>.I don't understand who is still loaning money to the US, and why.

 

>.Because you need to loan your money to someone. Someone who is safe.
Imagine you are a ChiCom, and you have to put your country's money in a safe
place. There are a limited number of safe places, and you have a lot of
money. In addition, there is the political leverage that money earns you
over the US government. -Kelly

 

I can tell you where a lot of that Chinese money is being socked away:
California real estate.  I see ever more local homes being sold to absentee
owners with Chinese names.  The Chinese don't really trust their own
government to not seize their wealth, so they park it in the US in the form
of million dollar tract shack which serves as their vacation cottage.  I can
testify of a house down the street from me which has never really been
occupied in the traditional sense in 18 years, but the owners show up for
about 2 wks a year.  It is meticulously maintained by a yard service, cars
parked out front, cars that started out new but now have become
weather-beaten with a couple thousand miles on the odometer.  Local
neighborhoods are growing quiet as their population declines.  That's where
you Walmart dollars are going.

 

spike

 

 

 

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From anders at aleph.se  Fri Oct 11 21:45:03 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 22:45:03 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <20131011093952.GE10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <02c101cec634$69a98740$3cfc95c0$@att.net> <5257BB9A.9010501@aleph.se>
 <20131011093952.GE10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <5258715F.4050707@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-11 10:39, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 09:49:30AM +0100, Anders Sandberg wrote:
>
>> merging. But other software will disagree. And the uploads in my big
>> data center will not care that they are sharing underlying hardware
>> and software as long as their data and processes are kept in
>> separate virtual machines.
> This is one of the rare cases where you're mistaken, Anders.
> All the other points are spot on.
"Any lapses in Omniscience are the price I pay for being implementable." :-)

> Context switches make things slower, if your system is
> 100% loaded. The more state you have to save and restore,
> the slower. In a simulation, it's all state.
>
> This is why supercomputers use batching, running until
> done, and never multitask between jobs.

Good point. And shifting around 10^21 bits non-locally is a hassle, so 
you do not want to move your uploads between servers too often. I think 
Robin makes the same point in his manuscript.

Still, I wonder how much can be done using superposed states. SIMD taken 
to the logical extreme.


> Fast and energy-efficient means there's risk.
Energy efficient also means less error correction (for a given speed).


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From anders at aleph.se  Fri Oct 11 21:40:16 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 22:40:16 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Influencing the far future
Message-ID: <52587040.9040404@aleph.se>

There seem to be quite a lot of theoretical near-present discussion here 
right now. I was delighted by this post by Paul Christiano, which is 
looking at far-future approaches:

http://80000hours.org/blog/258-influencing-the-far-future

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Oct 11 23:45:31 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2013 17:45:31 -0600
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <028c01cec6b8$3616f780$a244e680$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAPy8RwZrKk8c8oOCxt3uDfu+iUgyM3pbDLNTxUWCEzdB1Zf66Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <028c01cec6b8$3616f780$a244e680$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZoM-f1TwJeY_f0xDPsunxNRzR85iH4h3hXUk7Cu5ECHA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 1:29 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> ** **
>
> ** **
>
> *From:* extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:
> extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On Behalf Of *Kelly Anderson
> *?*****
>
> >>?I don?t understand who is still loaning money to the US, and why.****
>
> ** **
>
> >?Because you need to loan your money to someone. Someone who is safe.
> Imagine you are a ChiCom, and you have to put your country's money in a
> safe place. There are a limited number of safe places, and you have a lot
> of money. In addition, there is the political leverage that money earns you
> over the US government. ?Kelly****
>
> ** **
>
> I can tell you where a lot of that Chinese money is being socked away:
> California real estate.  I see ever more local homes being sold to absentee
> owners with Chinese names.  The Chinese don?t really trust their own
> government to not seize their wealth, so they park it in the US in the form
> of million dollar tract shack which serves as their vacation cottage.  I
> can testify of a house down the street from me which has never really been
> occupied in the traditional sense in 18 years, but the owners show up for
> about 2 wks a year.  It is meticulously maintained by a yard service, cars
> parked out front, cars that started out new but now have become
> weather-beaten with a couple thousand miles on the odometer.  Local
> neighborhoods are growing quiet as their population declines.  That?s where
> you Walmart dollars are going.****
>
> **
>


I don't doubt it. But what the Chinese government does is different than
what the typical Chinese citizen is doing. I was speaking of the
government, not individuals.

-Kelly
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sat Oct 12 14:28:02 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2013 10:28:02 -0400
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> They are not going to default John.
>

They are unless House Republicans learn to become potty trained in the next
6 days or so.

> There are contingencies they haven?t told us about.  There?s still a lot
> of gold in Ft. Knox
>

So destroying the world currency, the US dollar, isn't enough and you also
want to collapse the price of gold by dumping thousands of tons on the
market overnight. I don't think there is an economist on the planet who
would agree with your economic views, like that the government refusing to
pay it's bills would be a good thing, or causing interest rates to
skyrocket like never before seen in history in a sluggish economy with no
hint of inflation is a really good idea.

Another interesting effect is that it will cause the president to do
something illegal no matter what he does; if he does nothing then he is
failing to uphold the law (like social security or Medicare) that he has
sworn to enforce, if he raises the debt ceiling on his own he is claiming
powers the law says he does not have. Maybe that's all part of the retarded
Republican plan, so after the debt catastrophe and in the middle of all
that incredible chaos they will impeach the first black president.

Maybe Eugine was right after all about doomsday arriving very soon.

> This default talk is meant to scare,
>

Anyone who thinks default is just scare talk doesn't understand the
situation.

> The 2016 presidential election is one of those unusual chaotic times like
> 2008 when there is likely to be no incumbent in the race.  Ted Cruz is
> already running for president, Paul Ryan is running, Rand Paul, [...]
> John Boehner,
>

If we hit default none of those people, or any other Republican, has a
snowball's chance in hell of ever becoming president.   The successor to
Barack Obama will be whoever gets the Democratic nomination and the actual
November 2016 election day will just be a formality rubber stamping the
inevitable. The only good thing coming from default is that the kamikaze
attack on the economy will destroy the Republican party too, and it will go
the way of the Wig or Federalist party.

 > They won?t default. [...] political posturing all of it.
>

The only reason the markets haven't melted down already is that they think
it's just political posturing and Republicans can't possibly be as dumb as
they seem to be. But my fear is that they really can be that dumb.

  John k Clark
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sat Oct 12 16:59:17 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2013 12:59:17 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv1O1Q4pcNeC34pXJfcorVfY0XqciRU3iOQJB92wBQ=7DQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 4:37 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

 > there's a widespread tendency to underestimate what evolutionary-driven
> biology has managed to accomplish in
> a few gigayears. A synapse is pretty damn small
> Synaptic active zone diameter: 300 ? 150 nm
> Synaptic vesicle diameter: 35 ? 0.3 up to 50 nm
>

Yes but unlike the 22 nm 3D transistors that you have in your computer
right now (or the 14 nanometer ones in the Broadwell chip when Intel ships
it in 2014) a synapse cannot switch from on to off without the aid of a
much much larger structure, an entire neuron, or rather 2 entire neurons.
Oh and then there is the fact that the typical neuron firing rate varies
depending on the neuron, about 10 per second for the slowpokes and 200
times a second for the speed daemons; but the typical transistor in your
computer fires somewhere north of 3 BILLION times a second.

  John K Clark
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sat Oct 12 17:35:02 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2013 13:35:02 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?
In-Reply-To: <20131011092745.GC10405@leitl.org>
References: <op.w31sxyu40wog37@kira> <20130927055747.GI10405@leitl.org>
 <op.w369gtne0wog37@kira> <20131001121829.GR10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8Rwbbb2pzn0xFQ=ytkVj3UAASS5HOiB4Uk+=4Oui7RHCEDQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131009203347.GA10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwbRBYCH0eCGFpHqe3XyHynjhp_Qc7dE+XtrNJcD1hnfCQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131010062556.GF10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwYv3XUoaxZhDYvMCYYw55uwZNcd+ac-5VWqMLkzBU8txw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFgrUvGHeqDw+notavfhKBMcS9F5EMANy+Bnw9=HQhEmFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011092745.GC10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0gWVdh7tT_=y7YqF4+OiXvQR1H8KvxRCG1bBmovFbWuw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 5:27 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> Thermodynamics trumps economics. I tend to focus on thermodynamics vs.
> ecology


Then you should be a big fan of Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors, they
operate at a much higher temperature (although at a much lower pressure)
than conventional reactors, and thermodynamics says that means much higher
thermal efficiency.

  John K Clark
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From anders at aleph.se  Sat Oct 12 17:36:14 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2013 18:36:14 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1O1Q4pcNeC34pXJfcorVfY0XqciRU3iOQJB92wBQ=7DQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv1O1Q4pcNeC34pXJfcorVfY0XqciRU3iOQJB92wBQ=7DQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5259888E.6040202@aleph.se>

On 12/10/2013 17:59, John Clark wrote:
> On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 4:37 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org 
> <mailto:eugen at leitl.org>> wrote:
>
>      > there's a widespread tendency to underestimate what
>     evolutionary-driven biology has managed to accomplish in
>     a few gigayears. A synapse is pretty damn small
>     Synaptic active zone diameter: 300 ? 150 nm
>     Synaptic vesicle diameter: 35 ? 0.3 up to 50 nm
>
>
> Yes but unlike the 22 nm 3D transistors that you have in your computer 
> right now (or the 14 nanometer ones in the Broadwell chip when Intel 
> ships it in 2014) a synapse cannot switch from on to off without the 
> aid of a much much larger structure, an entire neuron, or rather 2 
> entire neurons. Oh and then there is the fact that the typical neuron 
> firing rate varies depending on the neuron, about 10 per second for 
> the slowpokes and 200 times a second for the speed daemons; but the 
> typical transistor in your computer fires somewhere north of 3 BILLION 
> times a second.

This kind of calculation easily becomes an apple-and-orange comparison. 
How many transistors are functionally equivalent to one synapse?

If we take the basic computational neuroscience model, an incoming spike 
gets converted to a postsynaptic potential. This is typically modelled 
as the membrane potential of the postsynaptic neuron getting a beta 
function added to it (like w_ij H(t-t_0) (t-t_0)exp(-k(t-t_0)), where 
w_ij is the weight, H the Heaviside function, t_0 the time of the spike, 
and k some constant). Another common approach is to have a postsynaptic 
potential that acts as a leaky integrator (P'=-kP + w_ij delta(t-t_0), 
V(t)=P(t)+<other electrophysiological activity>). In a crude 
integrate-and-fire model we do away with the electro-physiology and just 
keep the P potential, causing the recipient neuron to fire (and reset P 
to 0) if it goes above a threshold.

Clearly we need to at least be able to add a synaptic weight to some 
other state variable, and this variable needs to have at least a few 
bits of resolution. Doing this with transistors requires more than one 
(28 transistors for a full adder, and far more for a multiplier).

Note that this has ignored synaptic adaptation (w_ij should decrease if 
the synapse is used a lot over a short time, and then recover) and 
plasticity (w_ij should potentiate or not depending on correlations 
between neuron i and j). These require fairly involved calculations 
depending on model used; each state variable likely needs some adders 
and multipliers too.

In fact, some approaches to neuromorphic hardware try to use analog 
electronics to get away from the messiness of adders and multipliers - 
the above operations can be done relatively neatly that way using. But 
the power, precision and low price of digital electronics tends to win 
most of the time.

In the end, it is not obvious to me that a digital synapse can be made 
using silicon tech smaller than a real synapse. I would be surprised if 
an analog couldn't be done. Similarly speeding things up might be 
eminently doable, but while digital systems can vary clock frequencies 
continuously an analog synapse would actually be stuck at a single speed.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University

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From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Oct 12 22:15:27 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2013 23:15:27 +0100
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <018f01cec6a3$65c4ac80$314e0580$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <CAL_armjpFbHivF-8+8uVY_v9prRoEesMursr+bm-OLuQRGZAZg@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 6:00 PM, spike wrote:
> They promised to do what they cannot do.  In the early 2000s, the congress
> bet the economy would grow enough to accommodate the wild spending spree of
> those heady days.  The economy didn?t grow at the assumed pace.  Now we must
> face up to the bills that were run up during that period.  This is the
> democrat?s big chance to say It?s all Bush?s fault.  They would be right
> this time, or half right.  They have already borrowed our Social Security
> savings and spent it without means to repay, so those of our generation are
> screwed when we reach retirement age.  What do we mortgage next?
>
> Overspending is unpatriotic, it represents a threat to national security, a
> failure in leadership.  Our current president could read off his
> teleprompter word for word the speech he made in 2006, for it is more true
> now than it was then.  Instead he disowns it.  Why?  Instead, congress
> brings in another far bigger wild overspending program.
>
> Sheesh.
>
> At some point, the US will go into massive default.  It only gets worse the
> longer we wait.
>
>


"The ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world that it
leaves to its children.?
-- Dietrich Bonhoeffer (1906-1945)


BillK



From spike66 at att.net  Sat Oct 12 23:02:20 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2013 16:02:20 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark
Sent: Saturday, October 12, 2013 7:28 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
Euthanasia

 

 

On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

 

> They are not going to default John.

 

>.They are unless House Republicans learn to become potty trained in the
next 6 days or so.John k Clark 

Johnny, be of good cheer me lad.  They aren't going to shut down the
government.  It is all political posturing.  Here's why I think so.  Both
sides, and particularly the Tea Party, have the option of the Obi Wan Kenobi
defense.  Prediction: they will take it right up to about midnight on the
16th, then pass a clean continuing resolution with no strings attached,
which is what the president and the senate are demanding.  

The message the Tea Party gets to send is: OK, you guys have two seats of
power, or possibly 2.5 seats, and you demonstrated you are willing to shut
down the government to keep this turd sandwich of a law called ObamaCare.
OK, we aren't willing to shut down the government to stop it, but you are.
So this is all yours, all of it, enjoy.

John, if O-care fails, don't you think someone should be held accountable?
If it succeeds, shouldn't someone be rewarded?  Doesn't that seem fair?

The Tea Party has seen the disastrous roll-out of the O-care site.  They
have gone on HealthCare.gov and they have seen what happens.  (Go ahead, do
it.)  The Tea Party believes this whole scheme will fail catastrophically
and will cause a lot of damage on its way down.  So they are currently
making sure they go on record and getting plenty of attention as the party
opposed to it.  Why shouldn't they, if they are expressing their beliefs?
Any why shouldn't their opposition stand up for their beliefs as well?  They
should in both cases.

That is all it is, really.  A deal will be made on the 16th.  The stock
market agrees.  If you dislike the Tea Party and you think O-care will
succeed, then be of good cheer, for when O-care works out, those ugly Tea
Party guys will go away and will lose big in November 14.  If O-care fails
of course, then we can be sure the Tea Party will remind us early and often
what happened in these three weeks in October.  If that happens, they will
surely do quite well in the November 2014 elections.  If you believe O-care
will work, be of good cheer, for you have nothing to worry about and the
future is bright.

I know what is actually going on here, and I am not worried.

Are you worried?  Why?

spike

 

 





 

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From lloydmillerus at yahoo.com  Sun Oct 13 00:14:06 2013
From: lloydmillerus at yahoo.com (Lloyd Miller)
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2013 20:14:06 -0400
Subject: [ExI] [Bulk] Re: eput this crazy system out of our misery: was
	RE:	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <033301cec7a9$21a699d0$64f3cd70$@yahoo.com>

are.  So this is all yours, all of it, enjoy.

John, if O-care fails, don't you think someone should be held accountable?
If it succeeds, shouldn't someone be rewarded?  Doesn't that seem fair?

Lloyd Sez:  The problem is, even if ObamaCare is a disaster, the
DEM(agogues) with the help of the DEM(agogue) media (minus Fox) will see too
it that the blame will not fall on the DEM(agogues), but on their political
opposition and/or "the people."  Then, the government will ratchet down the
tyranny to "make" the law work!

 

According to the Constitution, the House of Representatives has the veto on
all spending.  So, they should just vote no.  If Obama shuts down the
government it is time for revolution.  That's how the Founders would have
handled it.  They literally "stuck to their guns."

 

Lloyd Miller

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From eugen at leitl.org  Sun Oct 13 08:04:08 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 10:04:08 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [New_Cryonet] (no subject)
Message-ID: <20131013080407.GG10405@leitl.org>

----- Forwarded message from m2darwin at aol.com -----

Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2013 18:46:02 -0400 (EDT)
From: m2darwin at aol.com
To: lonintelcomms at gmail.com, New_Cryonet at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [New_Cryonet] (no subject)
Message-ID: <81da8.500a565b.3f8b2b2a at aol.com>
X-Mailer: AOL 9.6 sub 168
Reply-To: New_Cryonet at yahoogroups.com

To Whom it May Concern,
 
I noticed your petition to" HM Government: Start a universal cryonics care  
program to preserve people after death," and would like to make the 
following  comments and observations.
 
First, the use of the word "death" is both confusing and a non-starter. The 
 definition of death is the irreversible loss of life. By that definition, 
"dead"  people cannot be returned to life using 
non-mystical/non-supernatural means.Iit  is for this reason that ideas like "the resurrection of the 
dead" and "reviving  the dead" are, properly, considered the province of god 
and religion. If persons  who are cryopreserved are truly dead, then they 
cannot, by definition, be  revived by any known or foreseeable technological 
means.
 
The clear implication is that people being subjected to cryopreservation  
after medico-legal death are not, in fact, dead, but rather, that the past 
and  current criteria for determining and pronouncing death are flawed and 
inaccurate  - and therefore invalid.
 
Asking the population as a whole, their government(s,), or any large  
segment of either,  to support the revival of dead people evokes  an attitude of 
disbelief and dismissal, at best, and of outrage and sacrilege at  worst. It 
is also oxymoronic on the face of it, since dead is, in fact,  dead.
 
Second, your petition puts the cart before the horse. No government or  
nation state is going to sanction subjecting living (viable) people to a 
process  that results in currently irreversible injury to the brain rendering it  
non-viable by all established medical criteria; no matter how compelling  
hypothetical scenarios for future repair may be. Thus, at a minimum, it  is 
necessary to first demonstrate that the mammalian (and human) brain is viable  
after cryopreservation using now available techniques. 
 
Current criteria for a viable brain (= a living person) are the presence of 
 integrated  electrocerebral activity; e.g., an EEG of some sort (quality  
not specified). It is not legally or practically required that the person's 
body  be intact or capable of (independent) function, since a person on a 
mechanical  ventilator, or who is undergoing extracorporeal; support or even 
hemodialysis is  not capable of remaining alive (i.e., having a functioning 
brain) absent  external technological support. By the same reasoning, a 
person with a viable  (even though injured) brain who is cryopreserved may still 
be considered alive,  even though much of their body has not survived 
cryopreservation. 
 
We are, in fact, quite close to achieving mammalian brain cryopreservation  
sufficiently good to allow for demonstration of EEG and LTP activity 
following  cryopreservation using existing vitrification technology. In several 
instances,  rabbit brains subjected to vitrification have briefly yielded 
integrated EEG  activity (Greg Fahy, personal communication, June, 2011).
 
Thus, the most rational course of action to follow is to urge/petition for  
the development of cryopreservation technology which can be shown with  
scientific rigor to at least preserve the brain well enough to satisfy 
existing,  conservative legal and medical criteria for preserving life. This is a  
trivial technological goal compared to the development of whole body, fully  
reversible human suspended animation. 
 
At The 8th Annual  Critical Care Symposium held in Manchester,United 
Kingdom on 29 April, 2011, I  presented a talk entitled "Achieving Truly Universal 
Health Care" which argue  that the most logical and humane way to deal with 
the increasingly impossible  burden of delivering health care to an 
increasingly moribund population using  contemporary "half-way" medical measures 
was to develop reversible brain  cryopreservation and then begin triaging 
patients receiving medically futile and  otherwise ineffective care into long 
term cryopreservation. Not only would this  greatly reduce the overall cost of 
healthcare, it would represent the only known  option for definitively 
rescuing and treating these moribund and otherwise  hopeless patients. It would, 
in effect, be not only their best path to short  term, meaningful 
(functional) survival, but their only chance at indefinitely  extended life in a 
state of youth, health and productivity. 
 
Most of this talk,  and of the slides which accompanied it are present here:
 
http://chronopause.com/chronopause.com/index.php/2011/02/14/achieving-truly-
universal-health-care/index.html
 
This talk was given to ~200 medical professionals from the UK, Europe and  
the US specializing in "intensive care (treatment)" medicine and it was  
generally well received. 
 
In conclusion, I would urge you  to rethink and "re-present" your  petition 
to include (more) reasonable and vastly more achievable goals, along  with 
scientifically and financially robust plans to achieve them and the 
associated documentation, which demonstrate that the use of  cryopreservation as an 
alternative to futile and extremely, indeed unbearably  costly end of life 
care is a superior alternative. 
 
Mike Darwin

----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://ativel.com http://postbiota.org
AC894EC5: 38A5 5F46 A4FF 59B8 336B  47EE F46E 3489 AC89 4EC5


From eugen at leitl.org  Sun Oct 13 08:06:19 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 10:06:19 +0200
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
 Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <20131013080619.GH10405@leitl.org>

On Sat, Oct 12, 2013 at 04:02:20PM -0700, spike wrote:

> I know what is actually going on here, and I am not worried.
> 
> Are you worried?  Why?

It's stupid to smoke around an open gasoline tank. Even if
you know it's going to blow anyway, at some point.


From eugen at leitl.org  Sun Oct 13 08:31:37 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 10:31:37 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [Bulk] Re: eput this crazy system out of our misery: was
 RE:	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <033301cec7a9$21a699d0$64f3cd70$@yahoo.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
 <033301cec7a9$21a699d0$64f3cd70$@yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <20131013083137.GJ10405@leitl.org>

On Sat, Oct 12, 2013 at 08:14:06PM -0400, Lloyd Miller wrote:
> are.  So this is all yours, all of it, enjoy.
> 
> John, if O-care fails, don't you think someone should be held accountable?
> If it succeeds, shouldn't someone be rewarded?  Doesn't that seem fair?
> 
> Lloyd Sez:  The problem is, even if ObamaCare is a disaster, the
> DEM(agogues) with the help of the DEM(agogue) media (minus Fox) will see too
> it that the blame will not fall on the DEM(agogues), but on their political
> opposition and/or "the people."  Then, the government will ratchet down the
> tyranny to "make" the law work!
> 
>  
> 
> According to the Constitution, the House of Representatives has the veto on
> all spending.  So, they should just vote no.  If Obama shuts down the
> government it is time for revolution.  That's how the Founders would have
> handled it.  They literally "stuck to their guns."

The US health costs are now some 18% of GDP, while many go uninsured.
This is ridiculously bad, and obviously unsustainable.

It is one of the most inefficient health systems in the world

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/26/21-graphs-that-show-americas-health-care-prices-are-ludicrous/

http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst/most-efficient-health-care-countries

This is what you should be up in the arms again.
Hey, and how about the bloody wars and domestic
"security" and surveillance racket?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/07/everything-chuck-hagel-needs-to-know-about-the-defense-budget-in-charts/

And interest on debt? The prison industry, the result of
war on some drugs? The education bubble? Sinking your
money into domestic fossil hole in the ground instead 
of renewable? And so on, and so forth.

Get rid of the donklephant. Don't buy into staged fights
between two wings of the same party.


From eugen at leitl.org  Sun Oct 13 08:34:19 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 10:34:19 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [Doctrinezero] Fwd: [London-Futurists] For people who speak
	French
Message-ID: <20131013083419.GK10405@leitl.org>

----- Forwarded message from Zero State <info at zerostate.net> -----

Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 08:27:51 +0100
From: Zero State <info at zerostate.net>
To: "doctrinezero at zerostate.is" <doctrinezero at zerostate.is>
Subject: [Doctrinezero] Fwd: [London-Futurists] For people who speak French
Message-ID: <CAAoBNdV36esePhNxgsJpWGxvDtwpaDGtcD_vo-t=HCDyg+JE5g at mail.gmail.com>
Reply-To: doctrinezero at zerostate.is

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: David Wood <davidw at deltawisdom.com>
Date: 13 October 2013 06:22
Subject: [London-Futurists] For people who speak French
To: London-Futurists-announce at meetup.com


The following news from Marc Roux will be of interest to members of this
group who speak French:

>>>

Hello everybody,

The *French Transhumanist Association, Technoprog!* is pleased to announce
that, from the month of November 2013, we are launching the first round of
French conferences entirely online which we named "*TechnoXLR8*." These
conferences will be organized in thematic cycles, one for each month.

To inaugurate our first round , we have the pleasure of hosting one of the
best specialists of transhumanism in France : *R?mi Sussan*, InternetActu
journalist, author of *Les utopies posthumaines* (2005) and an essay on the
brain (forthcoming: 2013).

R?mi Sussan propose a reflection from the question "*? quoi peut servir le
transhumanisme?*"

This first conference will be held Monday, November 11 - 6:00 pm CET (
central european time = Paris time) - on the platform of online conference
TeleXLR8.

To register for this conference, you should follow the instructions on the
Technoprog! site: *Online Conference:
TechnoXLR8<http://www.transhumanistes.com/faq/marc-roux/conferences_technoxlr8>
*.

Looking forward to seeing your colourful avatar in the virtual conference
room of TeleXLR8 :-)

For *AFT:Technoprog!*
Marc Roux--

[image: Association Fran?aise Transhumaniste]

http://transhumanistes.com/
contact at transhumanistes.com




--
This message was sent by David Wood (davidw at deltawisdom.com) from London
Futurists <http://www.meetup.com/London-Futurists/>.
To learn more about David Wood, visit his/her member
profile<http://www.meetup.com/London-Futurists/members/2875778/>
To report abuse or block this person, please click
here<http://www.meetup.com/London-Futurists/abuse/2875778/?table_name=email&table_id=$[emailId]>
To unsubscribe from special announcements from your Organizer(s),
click here<http://www.meetup.com/London-Futurists/optout/?submit=true&email=orgBdcst>

 Meetup, POB 4668 #37895 NY NY USA 10163 <#141b043d83bdad43_> |
support at meetup.com



-- 
Amon Kalkin
http://zerostate.net

_______________________________________________
Doctrinezero mailing list
Doctrinezero at zerostate.is
Unsubscribe: https://lists.zerostate.is/mailman/listinfo/doctrinezero


----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://ativel.com http://postbiota.org
AC894EC5: 38A5 5F46 A4FF 59B8 336B  47EE F46E 3489 AC89 4EC5


From lloydmillerus at yahoo.com  Sun Oct 13 13:58:35 2013
From: lloydmillerus at yahoo.com (Lloyd Miller)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 09:58:35 -0400
Subject: [ExI] [Bulk] Re: eput this crazy system out of our misery: was
	RE:	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <20131013083137.GJ10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
 <033301cec7a9$21a699d0$64f3cd70$@yahoo.com>
 <20131013083137.GJ10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <03b501cec81c$4f8a8280$ee9f8780$@yahoo.com>


>The US health costs are now some 18% of GDP, while many go uninsured.
This is ridiculously bad, and obviously unsustainable.

>It is one of the most inefficient health systems in the world

Lloyd Sez:  So that justifies and even more insane system?  How about
introducing market mechanisms for and fixing the safety net so it actually
function.

>This is what you should be up in the arms again.
Hey, and how about the bloody wars and domestic "security" and surveillance
racket?

>And interest on debt? The prison industry, the result of war on some drugs?
The education bubble? Sinking your money into domestic fossil hole in the
ground instead of renewable? And so on, and so forth.

Get rid of the donklephant. Don't buy into staged fights between two wings
of the same party.

Lloyd Sez:  So you think I endorse NSA abuse, IRS abuse, Federal Reserve,
the War on Drugs, Public Education?  Or is that just a calculated lying
implication, a calculated DEM(agoguery)?  

On the other hand, fossil fuel is where it's at and all society's problems
could be solved by all-out exploration for and use of fossil fuel.  Right
now, the price of oil is kept up by the irrational restrictions in the US
bought and paid for by the Rockefeller / Saudi / OPEC camarilla.
Apparently, you are "taken in" by the Establishment Petro-Dollar recyclers:
David Rockefeller, Soros, Prince Waleed and their intellectual frauds
financed through the UN, the Rockefeller Foundation, the Rockefeller Bros.
Fund, Harvard, etc.

No, the Republicans are floundering simpletons, resisting the ultra-Statist
DEM(agogue) agenda.  They are not the same Party.  One is populated at the
top by cunning tyrants, the other is populated by blithering fools.






From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Oct 13 14:52:12 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 15:52:12 +0100
Subject: [ExI] [Bulk] Re: eput this crazy system out of our misery: was
 RE: Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <03b501cec81c$4f8a8280$ee9f8780$@yahoo.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
 <033301cec7a9$21a699d0$64f3cd70$@yahoo.com>
 <20131013083137.GJ10405@leitl.org>
 <03b501cec81c$4f8a8280$ee9f8780$@yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjNYjN8FFRrb1oM9Cnymd6=-HrzUHgCXX=0LHBgxp+Nsw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 13, 2013 at 2:58 PM, Lloyd Miller wrote:
> On the other hand, fossil fuel is where it's at and all society's problems
> could be solved by all-out exploration for and use of fossil fuel.  Right
> now, the price of oil is kept up by the irrational restrictions in the US
> bought and paid for by the Rockefeller / Saudi / OPEC camarilla.
> Apparently, you are "taken in" by the Establishment Petro-Dollar recyclers:
> David Rockefeller, Soros, Prince Waleed and their intellectual frauds
> financed through the UN, the Rockefeller Foundation, the Rockefeller Bros.
> Fund, Harvard, etc.
>
> No, the Republicans are floundering simpletons, resisting the ultra-Statist
> DEM(agogue) agenda.  They are not the same Party.  One is populated at the
> top by cunning tyrants, the other is populated by blithering fools.


Lloyd,  Welcome to Exi!

But this is not the place for conspiracy theories or shouting
political slogans like 'Reps Good, Dems bad!'.
Neither look likely to solve the present problems.

Here we try to be constructive and discuss problems and solutions for
now and into the far future.
(With supporting evidence for any wild claims made!).  :)


BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Sun Oct 13 15:06:00 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 08:06:00 -0700
Subject: [ExI] [Bulk] Re: eput this crazy system out of our misery: was
	RE: Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjNYjN8FFRrb1oM9Cnymd6=-HrzUHgCXX=0LHBgxp+Nsw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <008701cec825$bb454fb0$31cfef10$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK

>
>>... No, the Republicans are floundering simpletons, resisting the 
> ultra-Statist
> DEM(agogue) agenda.  They are not the same Party.  One is populated at 
> the top by cunning tyrants, the other is populated by blithering fools.


>...Lloyd,  Welcome to Exi!

Seconded.

>...But this is not the place for conspiracy theories or shouting political
slogans like 'Reps Good, Dems bad!'.
Neither look likely to solve the present problems... BillK

Seconded.  Political advocacy is not welcome here.  But if you have some
insights which might interest the transhumanist community, that is welcome.
ObamaCare is an interesting case on so many levels, for it has profound
implications that ripples to even the international community, as well as
those of us whose future depends on medical technology, both current and
that which is to come.

spike

_______________________________________________





From spike66 at att.net  Sun Oct 13 15:16:07 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 08:16:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI] what the us gov owes to whom: RE: [Bulk] Re: eput this crazy
	system...
Message-ID: <008801cec827$25668ac0$7033a040$@att.net>



Check this interesting graph:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/10/10/230944425/everyone-the-u-s-governm
ent-owes-money-to-in-one-graph?utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=20131013&utm_so
urce=mostemailed

Reading this graph I get the feeling someone somewhen would be left holding
the bag.  The current debate is about if it is us, now, or if we can arrange
for it to be us later.

spike



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Oct 13 16:04:48 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 12:04:48 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <5259888E.6040202@aleph.se>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
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Message-ID: <CAJPayv1rsqze5Nysvis8VJKHbyQKtWEzmsZjd_9hnwNFt4PvsA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Oct 12, 2013 at 1:36 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> How many transistors are functionally equivalent to one synapse?
>

I don?t know but I can figure out how many modern transistors you could fit
inside 2 neurons. The average human brain is about 1450 cubic centimeters
or 1.45*10^24 cubic nanometers. There are about 10^11 neurons in the brain
so each neuron and its accompanying support structures ( glial cells,
capillaries etc) occupies about 1.45* 10^13 cubic nanometers, but you need
2 neurons to make a synapse so that?s 2.9*10^13 cubic nanometers. Using
technology that Intel will mass produce next year they can  build a
transistor inside a 3*10^3 cubic nanometer box, or about 10^10 transistors
in the volume occupying 2 neurons. And I don?t think the fact that those 10
billion transistors are operating nearly a billion times faster than
neurons can is a insignificant consideration.

Granted you couldn?t (yet) pack transistors at that density throughout a
volume as large as the human brain due to heat considerations, but imagine
what will be practical in just a few years.


> > Clearly we need to at least be able to add a synaptic weight to some
> other state variable, and this variable needs to have at least a few bits
> of resolution.
>

OK.


>  > Doing this with transistors requires more than one (28 transistors for
> a full adder,
>

OK, so if 99.99999% of the volume inside that brain sized 1450 cubic
centimeter cavity inside the skull was just empty space to deal with the
heat problem you'd still have more than enough transistors to give that
synapse an adder. And yes I know that a neuron has more than one synapse,
but it doesn't have a billion of them, and transistors are very fast, a lot
faster than neurons.  And all this is with just 2014 technology.

 John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Sun Oct 13 16:16:53 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 09:16:53 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1rsqze5Nysvis8VJKHbyQKtWEzmsZjd_9hnwNFt4PvsA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv1O1Q4pcNeC34pXJfcorVfY0XqciRU3iOQJB92wBQ=7DQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5259888E.6040202@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv1rsqze5Nysvis8VJKHbyQKtWEzmsZjd_9hnwNFt4PvsA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00a101cec82f$a22bf150$e683d3f0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark
Sent: Sunday, October 13, 2013 9:05 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device

 

On Sat, Oct 12, 2013 at 1:36 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

 

> >.How many transistors are functionally equivalent to one synapse?

 
>. 
 
>.Granted you couldn't (yet) pack transistors at that density throughout a
volume as large as the human brain due to heat considerations, but imagine
what will be practical in just a few years.

 

 

Heat transfer problems never go away.  At the end of the miniaturizing game
we have enjoyed for the last half century, heat dissipation is what finally
stops our fun, and explains most of why processor clock speeds have stopped
increasing.

 

Agreed there is room for further progress, but what I see is more efficient
use of smaller processors.  I am thinking about checking out a local ARM
processor conference this week:

 

http://www.linleygroup.com/events/event.php?num=24

 

I get the feeling the future development is in these small energy efficient
processors with open architecture.  We might be able to get a bunch of these
things working together to form a kind of intelligence.

 

When we talk about a human equivalence intelligence, we may find it is
impossible to decide exactly what that means.

 

I will make this speculation: the next generation of humanoid robots will
have a bunch of interdependent processors.  Future sports will be robots
racing and playing against humans and against each other.  This stuff will
be big entertainment and possibly big employment in the near term future.

 

spike

 

 

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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Oct 13 16:32:26 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 12:32:26 -0400
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAJPayv3VryDEbLT7ZTGwDchbnqYsro0Xr=uhpebfgkdJgvBGNw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Oct 12, 2013 at 7:02 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>  Johnny, be of good cheer me lad.  They aren?t going to shut down the
> government.


They've already shut down the government, I'm talking about something far
more serious than that.

> John, if O-care fails, don?t you think someone should be held
> accountable?
>

Sure, but the success or failure of O-care is of trivial importance
compared with the default issue.

>  If you dislike the Tea Party
>

IF?!  I don't like anyone who thinks it's cute to play with nitroglycerin
while standing right next to me!

 > A deal will be made on the 16th.
>

Spike, I sincerely hope you're right about that, otherwise we will enter a
singularity on Thursday morning, but this one will have nothing to do with
Artificial Intelligence, or of intelligence of any sort. This singularity
will be more like the one at the center of a Black Hole.

  John K Clark
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From anders at aleph.se  Sun Oct 13 17:52:45 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 18:52:45 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1rsqze5Nysvis8VJKHbyQKtWEzmsZjd_9hnwNFt4PvsA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv1O1Q4pcNeC34pXJfcorVfY0XqciRU3iOQJB92wBQ=7DQ@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAJPayv1rsqze5Nysvis8VJKHbyQKtWEzmsZjd_9hnwNFt4PvsA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <525ADDED.2030706@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-13 17:04, John Clark wrote:
> On Sat, Oct 12, 2013 at 1:36 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se 
> <mailto:anders at aleph.se>> wrote:
>
>     > How many transistors are functionally equivalent to one synapse?
>
>
> I don't know but I can figure out how many modern transistors you 
> could fit inside 2 neurons.

In computational neuroscience the typical fine-grained neuron model is 
divided into electrically isopotential compartments, typically 
corresponding to each segment of the dendritic and axonal branches. A 
reasonable estimate is that there are as many compartments as synapses, 
so the total number is twice the synapse number (synapses also count). A 
typical neuron has around 8000 synapses, so 16,000 compartments is 
likely. Each compartment has at least a membrane potential and some 
channel states (in the Hodgkin--Huxley model you have 3-6 depending on 
how you slice the activations). Izhikevich estimated the cost as around 
1000 FLOPS per compartment. This is likely an underestimate when you add 
extra channels and synaptic properties, but they just multiply the 
guesstimate a bit. So I would be surprised if a synapse takes more than 
10,000 FLOPS, even if you try to model a lot of state. Assuming 2000 
FLOPS per compartment gives an overall cost of 32 MFLOPS per neuron.


> Using technology that Intel will mass produce next year they can  
> build a transistor inside a 3*10^3 cubic nanometer box, or about 10^10 
> transistors in the volume occupying 2 neurons.

That ought to be enough. Even if we assume 1000 transistor per 
operation, we should have more than enough. Not to mention a big speed 
advantage.

The deep mess might be the change in configuration that happens during 
plasticity. Synapses grow and find targets on a hour/day timescale. This 
means the network topology is slightly mutable. Just assuming a fixed 
circuit network will not do. I think this is not too hard to handle with 
interconnects, but they are pretty big circuits.

> Granted you couldn't (yet) pack transistors at that density throughout 
> a volume as large as the human brain due to heat considerations, but 
> imagine what will be practical in just a few years.

This is why I have high hopes for quantum dot cellular automata and 
other near-reversible tech.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Oct 13 17:55:46 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 13:55:46 -0400
Subject: [ExI] [Bulk] Re: eput this crazy system out of our misery: was
 RE: Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <20131013083137.GJ10405@leitl.org>
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Message-ID: <CAJPayv2UORz0-dxfYyx=RW8LG-UL7-u_5pjW3uEkCEpQ9LBxeg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 13, 2013 Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> It's stupid to smoke around an open gasoline tank. Even if you know it's
> going to blow anyway, at some point.
>

Yes, it's one thing to know you're going to die, it's another to know
you're going to die on Thursday.

> The US health costs are now some 18% of GDP, while many go uninsured.
>

Yes.

This is ridiculously bad, and obviously unsustainable.
>

Yes.

> It is one of the most inefficient health systems in the world
>

No not one of the most, it is THE  most inefficient health system in the
world.

> how about the bloody wars and domestic "security" and surveillance
> racket? And interest on debt? The prison industry, the result of war on
> some drugs? The education bubble? Sinking your money into domestic fossil
> hole in the ground instead
> of renewable?
>

Those are all serious long term problems, but....

> This is what you should be up in the arms again.
>

I guess, it's just that right at this minute my long range planing and
concerns don't extend much beyond Thursday.


> > Don't buy into staged fights between two wings of the same party.
>

I hope it's a stage fight because that would imply a script exists, but I
think its like a toddler playing with a loaded automatic pistol and the
Republicans don't know what they're doing or how dangerous it is.

  John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Sun Oct 13 17:44:48 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 10:44:48 -0700
Subject: [ExI] idea for empty warehouses
Message-ID: <010c01cec83b$ea79ce80$bf6d6b80$@att.net>

 

Perhaps some of you virtual reality hipsters have some ideas.

 

Many if not most US metropolitan areas are interspersed with huge warehouses
that gradually became more empty as most American manufacturing was exported
to China.  Enormous Chinese container ships became de facto warehouses, as
we perfected just-in-time delivery to our big-box stores.  These empty
warehouses create a new opportunity for fun and profit.  

 

We also saw an important transition as data storage went way more compact.
Engineering offices once needed a drawing board, several filing cabinets,
some means of cataloging the filing cabinets, often a big wooden card
catalog like we used to see in the public library in our misspent youth
(remember those things?), a big locking wooden desk if you were a bigshot or
a smaller metal desk otherwise.  All this stuff took a lot of space.  But
now your computer is your drawing board, your filing cabinets, your card
catalog, your calendar, your secretary, your draftsman, and a desk isn't
really necessary if your computer weighs 2 kg.  After we mostly went
paperless in the early 00s, we got rid of that bulky junk and the excess
employees, so we easily fit four engineers into the office space that once
held one.  This allowed Lockheeed Sunnyvale to sell of most of its really
valuable real estate to the local internet fly-by-nights.  That's why it is
now about a fifth the area it was 20 yrs ago.  This transition must have
happened elsewhere as well, vacating so many enormous office buildings.

 

Now we have all these unused warehouses and empty office buildings in metro
areas which no one knows how to employ.  They really are everywhere, and
they are not difficult to spot.  We call them see-throughs, because you
drive by on the freeway, see a huge office building and everything behind
it.  Many of the warehouses have no cars parked anywhere near them, so they
must be empty as well.

 

Here's the idea: we use google glass to create something like a meat-world
quasi-real version of the virtual reality game Second Life.  We could use VR
hoods or goggles to dress up a big empty room as whatever the participant
likes best, as they walk around in a climate-controlled environment.  It can
be a field of flowers for instance, or a Mario Brothers world with chompy
plants and Yoshis running about, or perhaps a big virtual Disneyland for the
younger set.  The players could perceive a garden of Eden as they walk
around observing delights such as the tree of life, serpents offering fruit,
nekkid Eves and so forth. Oh that would be so trippy.

 

Big multi-floor office buildings could be arranged so that floors have
common themes and interacting players.  If other office buildings are like
the ones I know, the periphery of each floor are private offices with a
door, what we used to call four-walls and a lid which you could aspire to
inhabit, these always reserved for the big shots and higher ranking players.
These could be converted into rooms for copulation for those players who
successfully negotiate that particular interaction.

 

Oh my, there is money to be made here, waaaay big money.

 

spike

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From eugen at leitl.org  Sun Oct 13 18:02:58 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 20:02:58 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <00a101cec82f$a22bf150$e683d3f0$@att.net>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
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Message-ID: <20131013180258.GR10405@leitl.org>

On Sun, Oct 13, 2013 at 09:16:53AM -0700, spike wrote:

> Heat transfer problems never go away.  At the end of the miniaturizing game
> we have enjoyed for the last half century, heat dissipation is what finally
> stops our fun, and explains most of why processor clock speeds have stopped

Heat dissipation is what already stopped our fun with frequency doublings
almost a decade ago. 

> increasing.
> 
>  
> 
> Agreed there is room for further progress, but what I see is more efficient
> use of smaller processors.  I am thinking about checking out a local ARM
> processor conference this week:
> 
>  
> 
> http://www.linleygroup.com/events/event.php?num=24
> 
>  
> 
> I get the feeling the future development is in these small energy efficient
> processors with open architecture.  We might be able to get a bunch of these
> things working together to form a kind of intelligence.

The exascale machines are effective embedded SoCs with stacked memory,
and a mesh fabric router. The actual challenges of exascale is graceful
handling of unreliable transport and unreliable components (if you have
millions and billions of widgets, you will need to keep on trucking
when there's failure here and there). I don't think we'll get spintronics
in the first generation of exascale, but it's the only way to go on
after that.
 
> When we talk about a human equivalence intelligence, we may find it is
> impossible to decide exactly what that means.

If you have an isofunctional system, this is effectively your benchmark.
However, the only way to construct isofunctional system is for isolated/small
scale systems, and many that are evolutionary old.

I mentioned retina, but retina doesn't do high connectivity. So it
is highly suitable for embedded-like SoC computation.
 
> I will make this speculation: the next generation of humanoid robots will
> have a bunch of interdependent processors.  Future sports will be robots
> racing and playing against humans and against each other.  This stuff will
> be big entertainment and possibly big employment in the near term future.

The big advantage of autonomous cars is that this not just kills trucker
and delivery jobs (the poor bastards), but it vastly reduces the number
of cars built. So it actually hits car makers far, far more than it
hits truckers. 


From spike66 at att.net  Sun Oct 13 19:15:16 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 12:15:16 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <20131013180258.GR10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv1O1Q4pcNeC34pXJfcorVfY0XqciRU3iOQJB92wBQ=7DQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5259888E.6040202@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv1rsqze5Nysvis8VJKHbyQKtWEzmsZjd_9hnwNFt4PvsA@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a101cec82f$a22bf150$e683d3f0$@att.net> <20131013180258.GR10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <016e01cec848$8dd9ba20$a98d2e60$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
...
 
>>... I will make this speculation: the next generation of humanoid robots 
> will have a bunch of interdependent processors.  Future sports will be 
> robots racing and playing against humans and against each other.  This 
> stuff will be big entertainment and possibly big employment in the near
term future.

>...The big advantage of autonomous cars is that this not just kills trucker
and delivery jobs (the poor bastards), but it vastly reduces the number of
cars built. So it actually hits car makers far, far more than it hits
truckers. 
_______________________________________________

Eugen's comment leads me to the future of one branch of robotics.

We now have cars that can drive themselves, but they require a bunch of
extra stuff to be added, sensors and computer gazazzafratzes and such.  I
see the Google cars around here occasionally, with people in them, but they
can drive themselves, as Google has demonstrated on closed courses at
Moffett Field recently.

We could imagine retrofitting existing cars with the sensors, but that would
be costly.  I can imagine a next-generation idea: driving robots capable of
taking a current Detroit and driving it unmodified, as is.  It would need to
be able to take the keys, open the door, get in, start the car, drive it
somewhere safely, come back, lock it and leave.  That next engineering goal
is exciting!  We could set them to delivering packages, since they can get
in and out, can pick up and move stuff and so forth.  The supply of junky
old cars would be nearly endless, so they would be cheap as dirt.  It
wouldn't matter if the cars smelled like barf inside because some drunken
prole had used it for his latest rolling Bacchanalian indiscretion; the
humanoid driving robot wouldn't know or care.

We are going to need a bunch of these kinds of devices to replace all the
guys who once drove around doing errands but are now too busy wearing VR
goggles walking around in a big empty warehouse or office building with
others doing the same thing: struggling to negotiate a hike to the springs
in the periphery offices.

spike





From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Oct 13 20:08:43 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 21:08:43 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <016e01cec848$8dd9ba20$a98d2e60$@att.net>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv1O1Q4pcNeC34pXJfcorVfY0XqciRU3iOQJB92wBQ=7DQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5259888E.6040202@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv1rsqze5Nysvis8VJKHbyQKtWEzmsZjd_9hnwNFt4PvsA@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a101cec82f$a22bf150$e683d3f0$@att.net>
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 <016e01cec848$8dd9ba20$a98d2e60$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjyBDuEcTj6W87dXVnVpsG0GMnc-x4BXOvtk=xhb8z_bQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 13, 2013 at 8:15 PM, spike wrote:
> We could imagine retrofitting existing cars with the sensors, but that would
> be costly.  I can imagine a next-generation idea: driving robots capable of
> taking a current Detroit and driving it unmodified, as is.  It would need to
> be able to take the keys, open the door, get in, start the car, drive it
> somewhere safely, come back, lock it and leave.  That next engineering goal
> is exciting!  We could set them to delivering packages, since they can get
> in and out, can pick up and move stuff and so forth.  The supply of junky
> old cars would be nearly endless, so they would be cheap as dirt.  It
> wouldn't matter if the cars smelled like barf inside because some drunken
> prole had used it for his latest rolling Bacchanalian indiscretion; the
> humanoid driving robot wouldn't know or care.
>
>

A fully mobile delivery robot is surely unnecessary?  Nice, but not
required for deliveries.

The driver robot can deliver the package, but there is no need for it
to get out and swagger casually up to the residence, with all the
complication that involves. (It would probably expect a tip as well
and chat up the lady of the house).

The van could just phone ahead to make sure someone would be
available, then beep when it arrives and the resident comes out to
collect their package. The vans can work all hours, so no problem with
late deliveries.

Much cheaper solution.

But fully mobile robots will be very useful for other situations. They
will just be very expensive to develop.

BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Sun Oct 13 21:04:56 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 14:04:56 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjyBDuEcTj6W87dXVnVpsG0GMnc-x4BXOvtk=xhb8z_bQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv1O1Q4pcNeC34pXJfcorVfY0XqciRU3iOQJB92wBQ=7DQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5259888E.6040202@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv1rsqze5Nysvis8VJKHbyQKtWEzmsZjd_9hnwNFt4PvsA@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a101cec82f$a22bf150$e683d3f0$@att.net> <20131013180258.GR10405@leitl.org>
 <016e01cec848$8dd9ba20$a98d2e60$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjyBDuEcTj6W87dXVnVpsG0GMnc-x4BXOvtk=xhb8z_bQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <000f01cec857$df8f3f20$9eadbd60$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
Sent: Sunday, October 13, 2013 1:09 PM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device

On Sun, Oct 13, 2013 at 8:15 PM, spike wrote:
> >...  I can imagine a next-generation idea: driving robots 
> capable of taking a current Detroit and driving it unmodified, as is...
the humanoid driving robot wouldn't know or care.
>


>...A fully mobile delivery robot is surely unnecessary?  Nice, but not
required for deliveries.
...
>...But fully mobile robots will be very useful for other situations. They
will just be very expensive to develop...BillK
_______________________________________________


Ja.  The core idea is that if we can develop sufficiently human-like robots,
they can use our tools, run our machines, drive our cars, wear our clothes,
generally use the existing infrastructure rather than requiring a huge
expensive retrofit with competing standards.  That expensive development
might be our least expensive path forward.  This approach appeals to me from
a controls engineering perspective: it's a hard enough problem to be
interesting.

spike



From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct 14 06:14:21 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 08:14:21 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <000f01cec857$df8f3f20$9eadbd60$@att.net>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv1O1Q4pcNeC34pXJfcorVfY0XqciRU3iOQJB92wBQ=7DQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5259888E.6040202@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv1rsqze5Nysvis8VJKHbyQKtWEzmsZjd_9hnwNFt4PvsA@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a101cec82f$a22bf150$e683d3f0$@att.net>
 <20131013180258.GR10405@leitl.org>
 <016e01cec848$8dd9ba20$a98d2e60$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjyBDuEcTj6W87dXVnVpsG0GMnc-x4BXOvtk=xhb8z_bQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <000f01cec857$df8f3f20$9eadbd60$@att.net>
Message-ID: <20131014061421.GA10405@leitl.org>

On Sun, Oct 13, 2013 at 02:04:56PM -0700, spike wrote:

> Ja.  The core idea is that if we can develop sufficiently human-like robots,
> they can use our tools, run our machines, drive our cars, wear our clothes,
> generally use the existing infrastructure rather than requiring a huge
> expensive retrofit with competing standards.  That expensive development

Handicap-proofed surroundings are already suitable for wheeled robots.
Which can be rather agile, think Segway. And as a first step teleoperation
would do. You can teleoperate (and teleport, switching between multiple
platforms on the fly) from your ergonomic chair. From your home,
if you've got fiber.

> might be our least expensive path forward.  This approach appeals to me from
> a controls engineering perspective: it's a hard enough problem to be
> interesting.

An interesting subtopic: weed- and pest-picking bots. These can
be big as a gantry, or agile rodent-sized beasties blasting bugs
with lasers.


From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Mon Oct 14 07:29:55 2013
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 00:29:55 -0700
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>

What do you think?  This reminds me of Robert Bradbury's desire to grant
fifty extra I.Q. points to every person on Earth, to improve society.


http://www.livescience.com/17918-humans-intelligent.html


John
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From anders at aleph.se  Mon Oct 14 09:47:36 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 10:47:36 +0100
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <525BBDB8.5060308@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-14 08:29, John Grigg wrote:
> What do you think?  This reminds me of Robert Bradbury's desire to 
> grant fifty extra I.Q. points to every person on Earth, to improve 
> society.

It is a bit of a naive extrapolation, but I like how they actually 
mention and sidestep the problem that the IQ scale doesn't do doublings. 
Overall, sounds a bit like my own handwaving when interviewed by media 
about enhanced societies. I think we have good reasons to think they 
will be richer, safer, nicer and more turbulent. The point about 
personality mattering is very true: intelligence is multiplicative with 
motivation, neither can substitute for the other.

The "twice as intelligent" problem is actually a bit subtle. My own 
favorite approach for comparing intelligence would be to use something 
like chess Elo ratings: you run random "games" and estimate the 
probability that individual A will beat individual B. If it is 50% they 
have the same rating, if it is 64% higher A is 100 points higher, and so 
on. This way you could compare even superintelligences (who would have 
win probabilities against non-superintelligences close to 100%) by 
looking at a possibly hypothetical chain of intermediate minds, getting 
a score.

Still, such a score doesnt tell you what you can do. X points does not 
necessarily imply figuring out peace in the Middle East or how to make a 
stardrive is doable. And the above scale does assume you have a core 
general intelligence that can easily work on all domains; in reality we 
tend to specialise a lot, and certain styles are better at certain things.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Oct 14 10:00:34 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 11:00:34 +0100
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
In-Reply-To: <525BBDB8.5060308@aleph.se>
References: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <525BBDB8.5060308@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjjpC9UB8iyqtjvAQjRdo4Q30xQTkeVq1V1m7J3+iK3-Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 10:47 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> It is a bit of a naive extrapolation, but I like how they actually mention
> and sidestep the problem that the IQ scale doesn't do doublings. Overall,
> sounds a bit like my own handwaving when interviewed by media about enhanced
> societies. I think we have good reasons to think they will be richer, safer,
> nicer and more turbulent. The point about personality mattering is very
> true: intelligence is multiplicative with motivation, neither can substitute
> for the other.
>

i.e. The evil genius will be twice as bad. (Smiles and strokes white cat).

>
> Still, such a score doesnt tell you what you can do. X points does not
> necessarily imply figuring out peace in the Middle East or how to make a
> stardrive is doable. And the above scale does assume you have a core general
> intelligence that can easily work on all domains; in reality we tend to
> specialise a lot, and certain styles are better at certain things.
>
>

It doesn't mention that for humans high intelligence now seems to be
an evolutionary disadvantage. The top 20% don't reproduce nearly as
much as lower IQs. High IQ acts like a form of birth control.

BillK


From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Oct 14 10:50:44 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 11:50:44 +0100
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAL_armg_yLeLn-sjQYxhOB2QjuY-OxdKBdqJQvic==TD6c4Atw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 13, 2013 at 12:02 AM, spike  wrote:
<snip>
> That is all it is, really.  A deal will be made on the 16th.  The stock
> market agrees.  If you dislike the Tea Party and you think O-care will
> succeed, then be of good cheer, for when O-care works out, those ugly Tea
> Party guys will go away and will lose big in November 14.  If O-care fails
> of course, then we can be sure the Tea Party will remind us early and often
> what happened in these three weeks in October.  If that happens, they will
> surely do quite well in the November 2014 elections.  If you believe O-care
> will work, be of good cheer, for you have nothing to worry about and the
> future is bright.
>
>

Just one teensy weensy point here.......

The O-care system wasn't actually built by the guv'mnt.

It was built by the glorious free-trade corporations making millions
off the government spending.
The corporations that spent the most on lobbying (bribing) got the business.

See:
<http://www.infoworld.com/t/e-government/how-federal-cronies-built-and-botched-healthcaregov-228724>

Quote:
The biggest problem with Healthcare.gov seems simple enough: It was
built by people who are apparently far more familiar with government
cronyism than they are with IT.
----------------

BillK


From anders at aleph.se  Mon Oct 14 11:19:44 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 12:19:44 +0100
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjjpC9UB8iyqtjvAQjRdo4Q30xQTkeVq1V1m7J3+iK3-Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <525BBDB8.5060308@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjjpC9UB8iyqtjvAQjRdo4Q30xQTkeVq1V1m7J3+iK3-Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <525BD350.5010909@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-14 11:00, BillK wrote:
> On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 10:47 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
>> The point about personality mattering is very
>> true: intelligence is multiplicative with motivation, neither can substitute
>> for the other.
>>
> i.e. The evil genius will be twice as bad. (Smiles and strokes white cat).

And have to contend with millions of peers. (Similes and strokes an 
identical white cat)

A spread of smarts would even the playing field for a lot of normally 
high-threshold jobs. So we will want actuaries and particle physicists 
who are not just smart, but also social, creative or any other added 
useful trait. Meanwhile the currently very smart people in this scenario 
will end up having to find activities that are hard to do for the mere 
geniuses; that is likely going to be tough.

> It doesn't mention that for humans high intelligence now seems to be 
> an evolutionary disadvantage. The top 20% don't reproduce nearly as 
> much as lower IQs. High IQ acts like a form of birth control.

The effect is fairly weak. While the image of Idiocracy is vivid, when 
you actually sit down and simulate genetic equilibria of numerous small 
IQ-related genes you will find that the anti-intelligence selection 
effect is not doing much.


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Oct 14 12:19:47 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 13:19:47 +0100
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
In-Reply-To: <525BD350.5010909@aleph.se>
References: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <525BBDB8.5060308@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjjpC9UB8iyqtjvAQjRdo4Q30xQTkeVq1V1m7J3+iK3-Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <525BD350.5010909@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armh9=+PjG4Ush9hMMD2u-qvRZ+BhRnFwOSJdD4N=vVTsHA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 12:19 PM, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
> The effect is fairly weak. While the image of Idiocracy is vivid, when you
> actually sit down and simulate genetic equilibria of numerous small
> IQ-related genes you will find that the anti-intelligence selection effect
> is not doing much.
>


Hmmnnn. Not simulations, but real world studies have found a correlation.

The most significant factor is child mortality. When nations stop high
child mortality, then women stop having so many children.
When you add in female education / empowerment and higher incomes as
well, that explains the fall in first world birth rates.

But in the US some surveys have shown that college graduates have
fewer children.
Quote:
One study investigating fertility and education carried out in 1991
found that high school dropouts in America had the most children (2.5
on average), with high school graduates having fewer children, and
college graduates having the fewest children (1.56 on average).
--------

See: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_and_intelligence>

However, it is difficult to prove as education and IQ effects are mixed up.

BillK


From crw at crw.io  Mon Oct 14 05:15:30 2013
From: crw at crw.io (crw at crw.io)
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2013 22:15:30 -0700
Subject: [ExI] idea for empty warehouses
In-Reply-To: <010c01cec83b$ea79ce80$bf6d6b80$@att.net>
References: <010c01cec83b$ea79ce80$bf6d6b80$@att.net>
Message-ID: <20131014051530.GA1751@crw.io>

On 10/13, spike wrote:
>  
> 
> Perhaps some of you virtual reality hipsters have some ideas.
> 
> Here's the idea: we use google glass to create something like a meat-world
> quasi-real version of the virtual reality game Second Life.  We could use VR
> hoods or goggles to dress up a big empty room as whatever the participant
> likes best, as they walk around in a climate-controlled environment.  It can
> be a field of flowers for instance, or a Mario Brothers world with chompy
> plants and Yoshis running about, or perhaps a big virtual Disneyland for the
> younger set.  The players could perceive a garden of Eden as they walk
> around observing delights such as the tree of life, serpents offering fruit,
> nekkid Eves and so forth. Oh that would be so trippy.

Sounds like fun, but could turn into this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEexx5BR5eY

> Big multi-floor office buildings could be arranged so that floors have
> common themes and interacting players.  If other office buildings are like
> the ones I know, the periphery of each floor are private offices with a
> door, what we used to call four-walls and a lid which you could aspire to
> inhabit, these always reserved for the big shots and higher ranking players.
> These could be converted into rooms for copulation for those players who
> successfully negotiate that particular interaction.

Wonder how much insurance would cost to run an operation like this?

> Oh my, there is money to be made here, waaaay big money.

And how are laser tag arenas and roller rinks faring?

The joy of virtual reality is that you can connect and play from
anywhere. Why not tear down and scrap the warehouses, bust up the
concrete and start rehabilitating the soil underneath?

-c.



From spike66 at att.net  Mon Oct 14 13:54:15 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 06:54:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armg_yLeLn-sjQYxhOB2QjuY-OxdKBdqJQvic==TD6c4Atw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAL_armg_yLeLn-sjQYxhOB2QjuY-OxdKBdqJQvic==TD6c4Atw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <019e01cec8e4$dfe1a9d0$9fa4fd70$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
Euthanasia

On Sun, Oct 13, 2013 at 12:02 AM, spike  wrote:
<snip>
>>... If you believe O-care will work, be of good 
> cheer, for you have nothing to worry about and the future is bright.
>
>



>...The O-care system wasn't actually built by the guv'mnt.
>...It was built by the glorious free-trade corporations making millions off
the government spending...

Exactly so, thanks for this BillK.  Here is a British guy who gets this
better than Americans.   BillK, this entire system was designed by one
party, in private, with little public debate so nothing is on the record and
no one is required to take ownership of anything.  No one is responsible for
it.  The speaker of the house didn't know what was in that bill:  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1ht8msGqwI

None of the opposition party knew what was in it, and it got zero votes from
that side of the aisle.  How can you vote for a mystery bill?  It was
designed by those who intended to generate profit from it.  That part it
looks like it will work.  People will make money, plenty of money.  

Since there was all these profit-making provisions in there, those who
designed it specifically removed isolation clauses to prevent its being
modified to defeat the profit-making portions.  This means that to modify
any part of the law, everything in it is up for modification.  To do that
would mean debating it before congress.  But the present congress is
balanced.  It was completely over on one side when it was passed.  So they
don't do that.

>...The corporations that spent the most on lobbying (bribing) got the
business...

The former speaker said we need to pass the bill to find out what is in it.
It passed, we still don't know.  But I suspect bribery was used at every
step by those who would directly profit from the law.

>...See:
<http://www.infoworld.com/t/e-government/how-federal-cronies-built-and-botch
ed-healthcaregov-228724>  Quote: The biggest problem with Healthcare.gov
seems simple enough: It was built by people who are apparently far more
familiar with government cronyism than they are with IT.
----------------
BillK
_______________________________________________

BillK, if we can see what a mess HealthCare.gov is, and how it still doesn't
work right, why should it be such a leap of faith that the law was put
together the same way?  It was designed by all the wrong people with all the
wrong motives.

We know our previous system was in a death spiral.  If you had health
insurance, your company was billed to compensate for all those who had no
health insurance.  Hospitals cannot absorb all that loss.  So they took a
system which was in a tailspin and replaced it with a different system which
was in a tailspin closer to the ground and dropping faster.

What we see now is an attempt to cram every attitude towards O-care on one
axis, the only one politicians really care about, the classic left right
political axis.  But one's attitude on this law has many nuances that are
not captured by this.  For instance, how about an axis for those who think
they will benefit vs those who think they will not?  I am one who would
benefit, being old.  Perhaps more importantly, an axis for those who believe
it will work vs those who do not?  I do not.

Of all the plausible axes, I am close to center on most all of them except
one: I am one who is convinced this system will fail spectacularly, no
matter what we do, because it didn't solve any of the biggest four problems
wrecking our previous system, in fact it makes all three of them worse:  

-It doesn't solve the free rider problem, it makes it worse: the government
convinced voters it will give poor people free health insurance with low or
no deductibles.  I can assure you.  

-It doesn't solve the lack of market feedback problem, it makes it worse:
for those most likely to pay attention to deductibles, it promises a means
of having them subsidized, which intentionally defeats price controls in
medicine. 

-It doesn't solve the problem of the legal industry's over-involvement in
the health industry, it makes it worse, waaaay worse.

-It doesn't solve the insurance industry's overdependence on young and
healthies subsidizing the old and sicklies, it makes it worse.  The young
and healthy are compelled to buy insurance and allowing the old and sickly
to buy in, then imposing government controls on the price structure.

O-care introduces a new huge problem by setting the IRS as the enforcement
arm.  We currently have one IRS chief, Lois Lerner, who invoked the fifth
amendment, meaning she refuses to testify because it can incriminate her.
We have the IRS chief in charge of O-care enforcement, who has been caught
sharing confidential taxpayer information with those not legally entitled to
that information, specifically targeting political opponents: 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnWK-rodi2M

Watch that video, then go to HealthCare.gov.  If you can get it to work, the
first thing they do is ask for a bunch of personal information, birthdate,
legal name, address, email, three security questions, social security
number, everything an identity thief would need to empty your bank account.
And it goes to a person who has been caught sharing confidential taxpayer
information with unauthorized parties, specifically political opposition. 

My attitude to O-care has little to do with my political views and
everything to do with skepticism of this particular system as written.  Even
though I am among those who would benefit if it succeeds, I already know it
will not.  It cannot, it is too deeply flawed, by design.

Note that the US government's current thrashing about, threatening to
default is about this law.  

I would suggest we scrap this mess and start over.  We can still call it
ObamaCare if the current president wants a signature legislation.  Get
buy-in from both parties.  Actually debate the material in public, on the
record.  Break it up into reasonable sized pieces of legislation, which can
be actually read by those being asked to vote on it, so we never again have
the sound-bite of the house speaker uttering the absurdity "...we need to
hurry and pass this so you can find out what is in it..."  

A more reasonable sized legislation should be about 20 to 50 pages, rather
than 2000.  There's no way to legitimately understand a bill that is the
size of O-care.  Avoid passing huge society-changing packages when the
legislature is unbalanced.  That invites corruption and incompetence, as we
saw.  Avoid passing major legislation in an even year, such as 2010.  In
even years, the congressmen are more concerned about their reelection
campaigns than what they are voting on.  They don't even know what they are
voting on, or care.  They will vote on anything in exchange for campaign
contributions and support.  They are politicians, not insurance executives.
They don't know what they are doing.

spike




From brent.allsop at canonizer.com  Mon Oct 14 14:17:38 2013
From: brent.allsop at canonizer.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 08:17:38 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Nobel Prize for Evidence supporting "Law of the Crypto Coin"?
Message-ID: <CAK7-onu0FYAexxYB=whnSMQYp3RW_--cybhgJvmj9y8oc67aTQ@mail.gmail.com>

3 people were just awarded a Nobel prize for:

"showing that asset prices move unpredictably in the short term but with
greater predictability over longer periods"

Said the NY times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/15/business/3-american-professors-awarded-nobel-in-economic-sciences.html?_r=0

To me, this is exactly what the "Law of the Crypto Coin Camp" (
http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2) has been predicting about Bitcoin
valuations - that short term, you don't know what the market will do, but
over the long term, you can make intelligent predictions.

Does this convince anyone, or do people that think you can't make long term
predictions an any kind of law like way, interpret this differently?

Brent Allsop
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From spike66 at att.net  Mon Oct 14 14:45:58 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 07:45:58 -0700
Subject: [ExI] idea for empty warehouses
In-Reply-To: <20131014051530.GA1751@crw.io>
References: <010c01cec83b$ea79ce80$bf6d6b80$@att.net>
 <20131014051530.GA1751@crw.io>
Message-ID: <01c301cec8ec$18de4520$4a9acf60$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of crw at crw.io
Subject: Re: [ExI] idea for empty warehouses

On 10/13, spike wrote:
 
>>... Here's the idea: we use google glass to create something like a 
> meat-world quasi-real version of the virtual reality game Second Life...

>...Sounds like fun, but could turn into this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEexx5BR5eY

Their point is well taken: we are ever more often playing together alone.
My father-in-law who doesn't use the internet, is definitely feeling lonely
these days.  Where kids used to play outdoors, they are now all home with
their noses in the computer.

I doubt the above YouTube scenario, because it makes too little money.  You
want to run several proles in your sim simultaneously to increase profits.


>>... Big multi-floor office buildings could be arranged so that floors have

> common themes and interacting players...

>...Wonder how much insurance would cost to run an operation like this?

This is an interesting paradigm which has become second nature to Americans:
any time you run any business or venture, you must insure yourself against
lawsuits.  So here's the idea: the company with the empty warehouse or
office building does not buy insurance, the participants do.  That is the
admission ticket.  The insurance company charges whatever it deems
appropriate, with non-standardized rates.  Profit from the insurance pays
the company with the office building.

>...And how are laser tag arenas and roller rinks faring?

We might be able to convert those low-profit ventures into something like
this.  The beauty of it is the building doesn't supply the decorations, the
VR does.  All the empty office building does is supply a comfortable
environment, warm and dry.  All the cool stuff is in the participants'
goggles or VR helmet.

>...The joy of virtual reality is that you can connect and play from
anywhere...

Ja.  It would enhance those games to be able to walk around, kind of like a
meat-ish version of Duke Nukem perhaps, or a Leisure Suit Larry with actual
carnal rewards for the successful.

>... Why not tear down and scrap the warehouses, bust up the concrete and
start rehabilitating the soil underneath?
-c._____________________________________________

Tearing down a building costs a lot of money.  Something like the above
would make money using capital already invested with very little additional
cost.  In some areas, such as this county, tearing down an existing
structure can cause the assessed value of the land to go way up, which has
adverse tax consequences.  So, unless a developer wants to come in, the
owner is often better off leaving the unused structure as is, which is why
we have so many empty shells and see-throughs in an area where office space
is still crazy expensive.

spike



From spike66 at att.net  Mon Oct 14 15:20:18 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 08:20:18 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <019e01cec8e4$dfe1a9d0$9fa4fd70$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
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 <019e01cec8e4$dfe1a9d0$9fa4fd70$@att.net>
Message-ID: <01c401cec8f0$e54825a0$afd870e0$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of spike
...

>...Watch that video, then go to HealthCare.gov.  If you can get it to work,
the first thing they do is ask for a bunch of personal information,
birthdate, legal name, address, email, three security questions, social
security number, everything an identity thief would need to empty your bank
account.
And it goes to a person who has been caught sharing confidential taxpayer
information with unauthorized parties, specifically political
opposition...spike
_______________________________________________


Data and security hipsters, do offer me some guidance please.  Why would the
government have set up a system (Healthcare.gov) which looks to me like
strong security just to go in and shop, or just to get a quote?  I
understand the birthdate and address, because your age and state determine
your health insurance price.  But why do they need to know your social
security number?  And why the security questions?  Just to shop?  Couldn't
they ask for that only if you choose to buy something and pay with a credit
card?  What if you wanted to use PayPal instead?  Or get a paper bill in the
snail mail so you can pay with a check?  Are you really going to give all
that information to an organization which recent had a top officer give
self-contradictory testimony, then invoke the fifth amendment?  And that
apparent felon's boss was caught sharing confidential tax payer information
with unauthorized persons?  And if so, are you completely crazy?

Someone, do explain please: what (if anything) were they thinking?

spike



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Oct 14 16:03:11 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 12:03:11 -0400
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0kpBCNaSvjZOnrMh_pPuU5BnjQepSKr1RTtNtg+ncxSg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 3:29 AM, John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>wrote:

> What do you think?  This reminds me of Robert Bradbury's desire to grant
> fifty extra I.Q. points to every person on Earth, to improve society.
>

When I was a kid I read a novel called "Brain Wave" by Poul Anderson, it
had the IQ of  the entire world population double and then quadrupole
almost overnight;  at the time I liked it a lot but haven't read it in
years.

  John k Clark
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Mon Oct 14 16:20:04 2013
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 09:20:04 -0700
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB6t_YNbNikwGtb+D-7EpKDKt38oL0mtdCtdU5Wc1ptL1g@mail.gmail.com>

> From: Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se>

> On 2013-10-14 11:00, BillK wrote:

>> It doesn't mention that for humans high intelligence now seems to be
>> an evolutionary disadvantage. The top 20% don't reproduce nearly as
>> much as lower IQs. High IQ acts like a form of birth control.
>
> The effect is fairly weak. While the image of Idiocracy is vivid, when
> you actually sit down and simulate genetic equilibria of numerous small
> IQ-related genes you will find that the anti-intelligence selection
> effect is not doing much.

Don't forget that selection is happening on both ends of the
intelligence spectrum.

Which is typical for any trait you can measure.  If it was not, then
the center of the curve would drift until selection on both ends was
equal.

Keith


From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Oct 14 16:25:43 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 09:25:43 -0700
Subject: [ExI] idea for empty warehouses
In-Reply-To: <01c301cec8ec$18de4520$4a9acf60$@att.net>
References: <010c01cec83b$ea79ce80$bf6d6b80$@att.net>
 <20131014051530.GA1751@crw.io>
 <01c301cec8ec$18de4520$4a9acf60$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTkgfh4G==15P2_9J6+981BFgkY+VAt7jTY1NwpSLusoQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 7:45 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> In some areas, such as this county, tearing down an existing
> structure can cause the assessed value of the land to go way up, which has
> adverse tax consequences.  So, unless a developer wants to come in, the
> owner is often better off leaving the unused structure as is, which is why
> we have so many empty shells and see-throughs in an area where office space
> is still crazy expensive.
>

Tch.  A little remodeling, some interior walls or just a cubicle farm, and
there's office space without increased tax assessment.

(And agreed re: the YouTube scenario being unrealistic for only having one
customer at a time.  Not to mention, to many customers there's a network
effect: the total value to customers can be more than N times if N
customers are in at once.  Granted, for some customers there's an
anti-network effect - less than N times as valuable - but these are a small
enough minority with a small enough negative that the average balances in
favor of "many at once".)
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From spike66 at att.net  Mon Oct 14 16:28:21 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 09:28:21 -0700
Subject: [ExI] o-care promotes the singularity,
	was:  RE:  eput this crazy system
Message-ID: <01ef01cec8fa$66b32a00$34197e00$@att.net>


Hey I thought of a spin compatible with practical optimism.  Our hopes and
dreams of a singularity are advanced by having more people in software
development, rather than say law or financial "services."  

When young people deciding on a career see the HealthCare.gov site, their
first thought will be: Aw hell, even I could do better than this.

spike




From lloydmillerus at yahoo.com  Mon Oct 14 16:30:02 2013
From: lloydmillerus at yahoo.com (Lloyd Miller)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 12:30:02 -0400
Subject: [ExI] [Bulk] Re: eput this crazy system out of our misery: was
	RE: Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjNYjN8FFRrb1oM9Cnymd6=-HrzUHgCXX=0LHBgxp+Nsw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <000001cec8fa$a2d94410$e88bcc30$@yahoo.com>


>But this is not the place for conspiracy theories or shouting political
slogans like 'Reps Good, Dems bad!'.
Neither look likely to solve the present problems.

Lloyd Sez:  The ruling class exists.  To ignore that fact totally
misconstrues human society.  

That the DEMS are demagogues and ultra Statists is just fact.   The current
DEMS are just implementing what the statist Rockefeller Foundation complex
inculcated, from environmentalism to global warming, etc.




From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Oct 14 16:46:27 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 17:46:27 +0100
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <01c401cec8f0$e54825a0$afd870e0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
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 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg_yLeLn-sjQYxhOB2QjuY-OxdKBdqJQvic==TD6c4Atw@mail.gmail.com>
 <019e01cec8e4$dfe1a9d0$9fa4fd70$@att.net>
 <01c401cec8f0$e54825a0$afd870e0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhO_d+s81eaSdRb0UJvy6v-_Ou3yiQVF6ZUxYjqSaiJ-Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 4:20 PM, spike wrote:
> Data and security hipsters, do offer me some guidance please.  Why would the
> government have set up a system (Healthcare.gov) which looks to me like
> strong security just to go in and shop, or just to get a quote?  I
> understand the birthdate and address, because your age and state determine
> your health insurance price.  But why do they need to know your social
> security number?  And why the security questions?  Just to shop?  Couldn't
> they ask for that only if you choose to buy something and pay with a credit
> card?  What if you wanted to use PayPal instead?  Or get a paper bill in the
> snail mail so you can pay with a check?  Are you really going to give all
> that information to an organization which recent had a top officer give
> self-contradictory testimony, then invoke the fifth amendment?  And that
> apparent felon's boss was caught sharing confidential tax payer information
> with unauthorized persons?  And if so, are you completely crazy?
>
> Someone, do explain please: what (if anything) were they thinking?
>
>


This flowchart may help.....

<http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/20/can-you-get-obamacare-this-insanely-complicated-chart-will-tell-you/>


BillK


From lloydmillerus at yahoo.com  Mon Oct 14 16:34:10 2013
From: lloydmillerus at yahoo.com (Lloyd Miller)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 12:34:10 -0400
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was
	RE:	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <01c401cec8f0$e54825a0$afd870e0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
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 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg_yLeLn-sjQYxhOB2QjuY-OxdKBdqJQvic==TD6c4Atw@mail.gmail.com>
 <019e01cec8e4$dfe1a9d0$9fa4fd70$@att.net>
 <01c401cec8f0$e54825a0$afd870e0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <014501cec8fb$36465ad0$a2d31070$@yahoo.com>

Someone, do explain please: what (if anything) were they thinking? Spike

Lloyd Sez:  Maxine Waters spilled the beans a few years ago that Obama DEMS
would have the most powerful database in the world soon. . .





From lloydmillerus at yahoo.com  Mon Oct 14 16:38:24 2013
From: lloydmillerus at yahoo.com (Lloyd Miller)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 12:38:24 -0400
Subject: [ExI] [Bulk] Re: eput this crazy system out of our misery: was
	RE:	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <019e01cec8e4$dfe1a9d0$9fa4fd70$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
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 <CAL_armg_yLeLn-sjQYxhOB2QjuY-OxdKBdqJQvic==TD6c4Atw@mail.gmail.com>
 <019e01cec8e4$dfe1a9d0$9fa4fd70$@att.net>
Message-ID: <014601cec8fb$cda915c0$68fb4140$@yahoo.com>

>>I am one who would benefit, being old.  Perhaps more importantly, an axis
for those who believe it will work vs those who do not?  I do not.

Lloyd Sez:  Maybe NOT when the Medicare Cuts go into effect.  Obama said
already in that famous question and answer period that Grandma should have
got a pill instead of a pacemaker.     Pacemakers aren't even all that
expensive, but compared to asprin?




From spike66 at att.net  Mon Oct 14 18:10:01 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 11:10:01 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhO_d+s81eaSdRb0UJvy6v-_Ou3yiQVF6ZUxYjqSaiJ-Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg_yLeLn-sjQYxhOB2QjuY-OxdKBdqJQvic==TD6c4Atw@mail.gmail.com>
 <019e01cec8e4$dfe1a9d0$9fa4fd70$@att.net>
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 <CAL_armhO_d+s81eaSdRb0UJvy6v-_Ou3yiQVF6ZUxYjqSaiJ-Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <025f01cec908$9aebd070$d0c37150$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
Euthanasia

On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 4:20 PM, spike wrote:


>>... Someone, do explain please: what (if anything) were they thinking?


>...This flowchart may help.....

<http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/20/can-you-get-obam
acare-this-insanely-complicated-chart-will-tell-you/>

>...BillK
_______________________________________________

OK thanks BillK, that clears up the confusion.

Oy vey.

I don't know if this is true, but the rumor has it that the system tripped
over how to handle rate structures for smokers.  Before it was pretty
simple: if you are an individual wanting health insurance and are a smoker,
they would just sing you the Ray Charles song (Hit the road, Jack and don't
you come back no more no more no more no more...)  Simple, what part of NO
do you not understand.

Well OK then, now we have all these people who were previously uninsurable
with all the big four: they eat too much, they drink too much, they smoke
too much and they never exercise.  Now these insurance companies are being
forced to bet these folks are going to stay healthy, then are being told how
much they can charge and how much they must pay.  

The system doesn't know how to handle the rate structure restrictions when
the maximum rate difference between a 65 yr old smoker and a 25 year old
non-smoker can have at most a factor of 3, when their health care costs
differ by a factor of about 8.

I don't know how they will do that either, but I can envision zombie mobs of
elderly big-fours staggering towards the insurance company like that scene
in Michael Jackson's Thriller.

spike 



From rolandodegilead at gmail.com  Mon Oct 14 18:34:19 2013
From: rolandodegilead at gmail.com (=?ISO-8859-1?Q?Eugenio_Mart=EDnez?=)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 20:34:19 +0200
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <025f01cec908$9aebd070$d0c37150$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg_yLeLn-sjQYxhOB2QjuY-OxdKBdqJQvic==TD6c4Atw@mail.gmail.com>
 <019e01cec8e4$dfe1a9d0$9fa4fd70$@att.net>
 <01c401cec8f0$e54825a0$afd870e0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhO_d+s81eaSdRb0UJvy6v-_Ou3yiQVF6ZUxYjqSaiJ-Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <025f01cec908$9aebd070$d0c37150$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CANSO=1mmu3wzhRrwAt129Fia3eKgw=XK45wUek29VYqzaR=Vjg@mail.gmail.com>

Opinion from Europe:

Universal healthcare system works. We in Spain spend ?1.500 ($2039) for
person and it guarantees that everybody have access to free hospital,
medics, expensive treatments etc.

Works, and is hardly argueable because is a cuestion of numbers.

(or worked: Popular Party is putting a lot of obstacles in order to
desprestige it and sell the hospitals to private companies for no money.
They have done it before with a lot of public system companies)

Apart of the obvious advantages (you save lives, for god?s sake.. this is
the most important), is cheaper. How many money for person do USA spend for
their health?

And, if you solve a contagious ill, it?s not going to spread, so you save a
lot of money in the future.

Yes, the smoker fallacie: You have to pay their treatments.. YES. And they
have to pay your police if you are assaulted. They could say: "Not me, not
my problem", but everybody pays taxes for the police.

Anyway, yes, you pay the smokers treatment.. but they pay your mother?s
pills. It?s a quid pro quo.


On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 8:10 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
> >... On Behalf Of BillK
> Subject: Re: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
> Euthanasia
>
> On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 4:20 PM, spike wrote:
>
>
> >>... Someone, do explain please: what (if anything) were they thinking?
>
>
> >...This flowchart may help.....
>
> <
> http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/20/can-you-get-obam
> acare-this-insanely-complicated-chart-will-tell-you/>
>
> >...BillK
> _______________________________________________
>
> OK thanks BillK, that clears up the confusion.
>
> Oy vey.
>
> I don't know if this is true, but the rumor has it that the system tripped
> over how to handle rate structures for smokers.  Before it was pretty
> simple: if you are an individual wanting health insurance and are a smoker,
> they would just sing you the Ray Charles song (Hit the road, Jack and don't
> you come back no more no more no more no more...)  Simple, what part of NO
> do you not understand.
>
> Well OK then, now we have all these people who were previously uninsurable
> with all the big four: they eat too much, they drink too much, they smoke
> too much and they never exercise.  Now these insurance companies are being
> forced to bet these folks are going to stay healthy, then are being told
> how
> much they can charge and how much they must pay.
>
> The system doesn't know how to handle the rate structure restrictions when
> the maximum rate difference between a 65 yr old smoker and a 25 year old
> non-smoker can have at most a factor of 3, when their health care costs
> differ by a factor of about 8.
>
> I don't know how they will do that either, but I can envision zombie mobs
> of
> elderly big-fours staggering towards the insurance company like that scene
> in Michael Jackson's Thriller.
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
OLVIDATE.DE
Tatachan.com
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From spike66 at att.net  Mon Oct 14 19:03:32 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 12:03:32 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CANSO=1mmu3wzhRrwAt129Fia3eKgw=XK45wUek29VYqzaR=Vjg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg_yLeLn-sjQYxhOB2QjuY-OxdKBdqJQvic==TD6c4Atw@mail.gmail.com>
 <019e01cec8e4$dfe1a9d0$9fa4fd70$@att.net>
 <01c401cec8f0$e54825a0$afd870e0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhO_d+s81eaSdRb0UJvy6v-_Ou3yiQVF6ZUxYjqSaiJ-Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <025f01cec908$9aebd070$d0c37150$@att.net>
 <CANSO=1mmu3wzhRrwAt129Fia3eKgw=XK45wUek29VYqzaR=Vjg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <028a01cec910$14500010$3cf00030$@att.net>

 

 

>
 On Behalf Of Eugenio Mart?nez
Subject: Re: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
Euthanasia

 

>
Opinion from Europe:  Universal healthcare system works


Ja, thanks Eugenio.  Some have been led to believe ObamaCare is universal
healthcare or is a step towards it.  As far as I can tell, it is neither.
It is a tax-incentive to enter the health insurance market, with a bunch of
rules which effectively defeat the value that health insurance companies
add.  The smoking is a good example.  Before, if you wanted health
insurance, the cigarettes had to go.  This was a huge incentive to give up
that habit.  Now that?s gone.

>
Anyway, yes, you pay the smokers treatment


OK then, I want a lot more control over the lives of smokers, a looooot
more.  Not just for tobacco use either, I have a list of things I want
changed in the lives of those who get government-mandated health insurance.
They will not like my list.  Hey, I am paying, so I get a say in the matter.
Otherwise I will just pay the tax for not having insurance and be done with
it.

Alternately, we could keep that individual mandate and even the subsidies,
but allow health insurance companies to do what they do so very well: take
into account all the known factors, then estimate your health cost risks and
charge what it costs, rather than trying to overcharge some to subsidize
others.

spike

 

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From spike66 at att.net  Mon Oct 14 20:10:13 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 13:10:13 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <028a01cec910$14500010$3cf00030$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
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 <019e01cec8e4$dfe1a9d0$9fa4fd70$@att.net>
 <01c401cec8f0$e54825a0$afd870e0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhO_d+s81eaSdRb0UJvy6v-_Ou3yiQVF6ZUxYjqSaiJ-Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <025f01cec908$9aebd070$d0c37150$@att.net>
 <CANSO=1mmu3wzhRrwAt129Fia3eKgw=XK45wUek29VYqzaR=Vjg@mail.gmail.com>
 <028a01cec910$14500010$3cf00030$@att.net>
Message-ID: <02d701cec919$6596a560$30c3f020$@att.net>

 

My apologies for hammering on this please.  Healthcare.gov, that same system
which asks for all the information needed to clean out your bank account,
including bank account numbers should you opt to have tax penalty deducted
directly from your savings, has the following comment:

 

You have no reasonable expectation of privacy regarding any communication or
data transiting or stored on this informationsystem.  At any time, and for
any lawful Government purpose, the government may monitor, intercept, and
search and seize any communication or data transiting or stored on this
information system.  Any communication or data transiting or stored on this
information system may be disclosed or used for any lawful Government
purpose.

 

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obamacare-website-source-code-no-reasona
ble-expectation-privacy_762489.html#read-more

 

Is this an Orwellian nightmare, or am I hallucinating?  They collect all
this info, then just outright state that you have no reasonable expectation
of privacy.  You just dropped all manner of personal info into the public
domain.  How the hell can they set up strong security with all this private
info, then after the fact casually say you cannot reasonably expect privacy?
How do they figure?  Is this really what our own government wanted?

 

Ignore my previous screeds, do comment on this please.

 

spike

 

 

 

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From rolandodegilead at gmail.com  Mon Oct 14 20:39:54 2013
From: rolandodegilead at gmail.com (=?ISO-8859-1?Q?Eugenio_Mart=EDnez?=)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 22:39:54 +0200
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <02d701cec919$6596a560$30c3f020$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg_yLeLn-sjQYxhOB2QjuY-OxdKBdqJQvic==TD6c4Atw@mail.gmail.com>
 <019e01cec8e4$dfe1a9d0$9fa4fd70$@att.net>
 <01c401cec8f0$e54825a0$afd870e0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhO_d+s81eaSdRb0UJvy6v-_Ou3yiQVF6ZUxYjqSaiJ-Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <025f01cec908$9aebd070$d0c37150$@att.net>
 <CANSO=1mmu3wzhRrwAt129Fia3eKgw=XK45wUek29VYqzaR=Vjg@mail.gmail.com>
 <028a01cec910$14500010$3cf00030$@att.net>
 <02d701cec919$6596a560$30c3f020$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CANSO=1=QSoFFc86QZJZD+ctFr14g-kU=5K_9kqHphOctKJV8ow@mail.gmail.com>

If this: "Some have been led to believe ObamaCare is universal healthcare
or is a step towards it." is right, I mean, if Obamacare is not an
universal health care, it?s wrong and you are right: Is useless.

Anyway, with Universal Healthcare, this "OK then, I want a lot more control
over the lives of smokers, a looooot more" is not applicable. I mean: I
could say: Ok.  If you go out of house at night in a middle dangerous place
I?d like to have a lot more control over your life, because I pay the
police that saves you.


On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 10:10 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> ** **
>
> My apologies for hammering on this please.  Healthcare.gov, that same
> system which asks for all the information needed to clean out your bank
> account, including bank account numbers should you opt to have tax penalty
> deducted directly from your savings, has the following comment:****
>
> ** **
>
> You have no reasonable expectation of privacy regarding any communication
> or data transiting or stored on this informationsystem.  At any time, and
> for any lawful Government purpose, the government may monitor, intercept,
> and search and seize any communication or data transiting or stored on this
> information system.  Any communication or data transiting or stored on this
> information system may be disclosed or used for any lawful Government
> purpose.****
>
> ** **
>
>
> http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obamacare-website-source-code-no-reasonable-expectation-privacy_762489.html#read-more
> ****
>
> ** **
>
> Is this an Orwellian nightmare, or am I hallucinating?  They collect all
> this info, then just outright state that you have no reasonable expectation
> of privacy.  You just dropped all manner of personal info into the public
> domain.  How the hell can they set up strong security with all this private
> info, then after the fact casually say you cannot reasonably expect
> privacy?  How do they figure?  Is this really what our own government
> wanted?****
>
> ** **
>
> Ignore my previous screeds, do comment on this please.****
>
> ** **
>
> spike****
>
> ** **
>
> ** **
>
> ** **
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
OLVIDATE.DE
Tatachan.com
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From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Oct 14 21:33:39 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 22:33:39 +0100
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <02d701cec919$6596a560$30c3f020$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg_yLeLn-sjQYxhOB2QjuY-OxdKBdqJQvic==TD6c4Atw@mail.gmail.com>
 <019e01cec8e4$dfe1a9d0$9fa4fd70$@att.net>
 <01c401cec8f0$e54825a0$afd870e0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhO_d+s81eaSdRb0UJvy6v-_Ou3yiQVF6ZUxYjqSaiJ-Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <025f01cec908$9aebd070$d0c37150$@att.net>
 <CANSO=1mmu3wzhRrwAt129Fia3eKgw=XK45wUek29VYqzaR=Vjg@mail.gmail.com>
 <028a01cec910$14500010$3cf00030$@att.net>
 <02d701cec919$6596a560$30c3f020$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhG7PNTZKcDNDqe7BgH52f7ZY+aOg4tq=GGnjbFyM-M9Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 9:10 PM, spike wrote:
> http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obamacare-website-source-code-no-reasonable-expectation-privacy_762489.html#read-more
>
> Is this an Orwellian nightmare, or am I hallucinating?  They collect all
> this info, then just outright state that you have no reasonable expectation
> of privacy.  You just dropped all manner of personal info into the public
> domain.  How the hell can they set up strong security with all this private
> info, then after the fact casually say you cannot reasonably expect privacy?
> How do they figure?  Is this really what our own government wanted?
>

As the article explains, these sentences are found in the programmer's
comments. They are NOT part of the terms shown to and agreed by
clients. (You really don't want to go investigating the stuff that
programmers leave in comments!)   :)

That said, if you search for - no reasonable expectation of privacy -
then you will get a fright.
Going by Supreme Court decisions, pretty much anything you send to the
internet has little expectation of privacy. Any data given to the
government can be shared to any other government agency, and also to
pretty much anybody that the government decides has a need to know.

<http://itlaw.wikia.com/wiki/Reasonable_expectation_of_privacy>
<https://ssd.eff.org/your-computer/govt/privacy>

You don't have any internet privacy left now (Just ask Eugen!).

BillK


From msd001 at gmail.com  Tue Oct 15 00:38:55 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 20:38:55 -0400
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
In-Reply-To: <525BD350.5010909@aleph.se>
References: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <525BBDB8.5060308@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjjpC9UB8iyqtjvAQjRdo4Q30xQTkeVq1V1m7J3+iK3-Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <525BD350.5010909@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbJJV_W5NkRb6-e0Vsr0J4bKTWzf9cC-dfwk9VZ7qOPvWg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 7:19 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2013-10-14 11:00, BillK wrote:
>
>> On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 10:47 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
>>
>>> The point about personality mattering is very
>>> true: intelligence is multiplicative with motivation, neither can
>>> substitute
>>> for the other.
>>>
>>>  i.e. The evil genius will be twice as bad. (Smiles and strokes white
>> cat).
>>
>
> And have to contend with millions of peers. (Similes and strokes an
> identical white cat)
>
>
Where do evil geniuses source these cats?  Are they lab-grown clones?
Seems like an unhealthy dependence on a particular genotype.

tbh, I first assumed they were the same cat (identity of indiscernibles)
but that had the comical result of two smiling evil geniuses sharing the
same pet; clearly that's just weird.
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From msd001 at gmail.com  Tue Oct 15 00:42:52 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 20:42:52 -0400
Subject: [ExI] idea for empty warehouses
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTkgfh4G==15P2_9J6+981BFgkY+VAt7jTY1NwpSLusoQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <010c01cec83b$ea79ce80$bf6d6b80$@att.net>
 <20131014051530.GA1751@crw.io>
 <01c301cec8ec$18de4520$4a9acf60$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <CAOJFdb+9qycvM=D3Z__r6dMOKZNbGhrtbP+MvwnqRHA-BV9wqQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 12:25 PM, Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> (And agreed re: the YouTube scenario being unrealistic for only having one
> customer at a time.  Not to mention, to many customers there's a network
> effect: the total value to customers can be more than N times if N
> customers are in at once.  Granted, for some customers there's an
> anti-network effect - less than N times as valuable - but these are a small
> enough minority with a small enough negative that the average balances in
> favor of "many at once".)
>
>
This month is a perfect example: with all the pop-up Halloween stores and
"Haunted House" entertainment.
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From msd001 at gmail.com  Tue Oct 15 00:54:25 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 20:54:25 -0400
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <025f01cec908$9aebd070$d0c37150$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAOJFdbKvF1wtGXxvvsaPmQjAYc_OnuMhwzb6nzZLrjsAuJyjkQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 2:10 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> The system doesn't know how to handle the rate structure restrictions when
> the maximum rate difference between a 65 yr old smoker and a 25 year old
> non-smoker can have at most a factor of 3, when their health care costs
> differ by a factor of about 8.
>
> I don't know how they will do that either, but I can envision zombie mobs
> of
> elderly big-fours staggering towards the insurance company like that scene
> in Michael Jackson's Thriller.
>
>
It could be worse, they could be spilling over walls like the zombies of
World War Z.
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From msd001 at gmail.com  Tue Oct 15 01:19:27 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 21:19:27 -0400
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <028a01cec910$14500010$3cf00030$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAOJFdb+ZZ3a2jgnbk-nVyYBWye7pQD4MWwmniof97H-2DBFj3w@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 3:03 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Ja, thanks Eugenio.  Some have been led to believe ObamaCare is universal
> healthcare or is a step towards it.  As far as I can tell, it is neither.
> It is a tax-incentive to enter the health insurance market, with a bunch of
> rules which effectively defeat the value that health insurance companies
> add.  The smoking is a good example.  Before, if you wanted health
> insurance, the cigarettes had to go.  This was a huge incentive to give up
> that habit.  Now that?s gone.
>
> >?Anyway, yes, you pay the smokers treatment?
>
> OK then, I want a lot more control over the lives of smokers, a looooot
> more.  Not just for tobacco use either, I have a list of things I want
> changed in the lives of those who get government-mandated health
> insurance.  They will not like my list.  Hey, I am paying, so I get a say
> in the matter.  Otherwise I will just pay the tax for not having insurance
> and be done with it.
>
> Alternately, we could keep that individual mandate and even the subsidies,
> but allow health insurance companies to do what they do so very well: take
> into account all the known factors, then estimate your health cost risks
> and charge what it costs, rather than trying to overcharge some to
> subsidize others.
>
>
control over lives

I view it being similar to how a rancher seeks control over the life of
each member of his herd.  The "health" of the individual isn't important
because of some noble philosophy but because it is a for-profit product.
Those lucky cattle that win the lottery and enjoy a grass-fed life
ultimately fetch a higher price at the market to pay for all the
aggravation entailed in the special handling.  Is my analogy disturbing?
yes, of course.  Is my attitude (and the memeplex I maintain) a function of
the environment we live in?  yes, of course.  I'll admit to being too
unhealthy to propose a less-grim perspective.

I think spike may be slightly more optimistic because he is still proposing
solutions.  I don't presume to know any.

to be honest, I feel like even ranting about it publicly is approaching
mindcrime.  As the surveillance net noose tightens, it may be declared
retroactive mindcrime.  In the meantime, you have the right to continue to
incriminate yourself.
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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Oct 15 03:36:17 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 20:36:17 -0700
Subject: [ExI] surveillance noose: RE: eput this crazy system out of our
	misery: was RE: Euthanasia
Message-ID: <015001cec957$b5e2f210$21a8d630$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty
Subject: Re: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
Euthanasia

 

>...to be honest, I feel like even ranting about it publicly is approaching
mindcrime.  As the surveillance net noose tightens, it may be declared
retroactive mindcrime.  In the meantime, you have the right to continue to
incriminate yourself.  Mike

 

Those of us who have incriminated ourselves in this manner will be those who
will be most spirited in the defense of freedom.

Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of
chains and slavery?

http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/patrick.asp

spike

 

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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Oct 15 04:35:27 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2013 21:35:27 -0700
Subject: [ExI] surveillance noose
Message-ID: <017c01cec95f$f9c311b0$ed493510$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike
Sent: Monday, October 14, 2013 8:36 PM
To: 'ExI chat list'
Subject: [ExI] surveillance noose: RE: eput this crazy system out of our
misery: was RE: Euthanasia

 

 

 

>. On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty
Subject: Re: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
Euthanasia

 

>>...to be honest, I feel like even ranting about it publicly is approaching
mindcrime.  As the surveillance net noose tightens, it may be declared
retroactive mindcrime.  In the meantime, you have the right to continue to
incriminate yourself.  Mike

 

>.Those of us who have incriminated ourselves in this manner will be those
who will be most spirited in the defense of freedom.

spike

 

My apologies for overposting today.

This is an interesting question.  I have never done anything more illegal
than ripping the tag off a mattress I bought after I got it home.  But I
have criticized O-care with reckless abandon, both here and with personal
online contact lists.  Soon we shall see if we still have a first amendment
in this country, or if criticism has become a crime:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/10/14/nsa-reportedly-collecting-million
s-personal-online-contact-lists-worldwide/

Recall that this same government which is collecting all this stuff is the
one which requires strong passwords and plenty of personal information just
to shop on HealthCare.gov.  In light of the ".no reasonable expectation of
privacy." comment, can anyone explain why they would have done that?

spike

 

 

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From anders at aleph.se  Tue Oct 15 07:37:58 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 08:37:58 +0100
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbJJV_W5NkRb6-e0Vsr0J4bKTWzf9cC-dfwk9VZ7qOPvWg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <525BBDB8.5060308@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjjpC9UB8iyqtjvAQjRdo4Q30xQTkeVq1V1m7J3+iK3-Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <525BD350.5010909@aleph.se>
 <CAOJFdbJJV_W5NkRb6-e0Vsr0J4bKTWzf9cC-dfwk9VZ7qOPvWg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <525CF0D6.7060302@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-15 01:38, Mike Dougherty wrote:
> On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 7:19 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se 
> <mailto:anders at aleph.se>> wrote:
>
>     On 2013-10-14 11:00, BillK wrote:
>
>
>         i.e. The evil genius will be twice as bad. (Smiles and strokes
>         white cat).
>
>
>     And have to contend with millions of peers. (Similes and strokes
>     an identical white cat)
>
>
> Where do evil geniuses source these cats?  Are they lab-grown clones?  
> Seems like an unhealthy dependence on a particular genotype.

There is an app for that:
https://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/blofeld/id289049840?mt=8
(this is what I use during meetings to indicate that I got an evil idea)

But just as there is http://www.privateislandsonline.com/ there has to 
be some cat cloning company.

> tbh, I first assumed they were the same cat (identity of 
> indiscernibles) but that had the comical result of two smiling evil 
> geniuses sharing the same pet; clearly that's just weird.

Yes, sharing is a skill most evil geniuses are bad at. Many of the best 
evil geniuses are into altruism bigtime (think of Trevor Goodchild), but 
*sharing* is not one of their skills.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Oct 15 09:46:41 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 10:46:41 +0100
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdb+ZZ3a2jgnbk-nVyYBWye7pQD4MWwmniof97H-2DBFj3w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
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On Tue, Oct 15, 2013 at 2:19 AM, Mike Dougherty wrote:
> I think spike may be slightly more optimistic because he is still proposing
> solutions.  I don't presume to know any.
>
> to be honest, I feel like even ranting about it publicly is approaching
> mindcrime.  As the surveillance net noose tightens, it may be declared
> retroactive mindcrime.  In the meantime, you have the right to continue to
> incriminate yourself.
>
>

We now know that the NSA is collecting email address books and phone
contact lists, so if Spike is incriminating himself, then all his
contacts are obviously suspicious characters as well. (Hastily looks
over shoulder).

Given the six degrees of separation theory,
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_degrees_of_separation>
it appears that the NSA now thinks that everyone in the world is a
possible suspect.

So, for security, the ideal solution is to jail or drone everybody
except the NSA.
Their future is an NSA enclave surrounded by smouldering wastelands.


BillK


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Oct 15 10:28:10 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 12:28:10 +0200
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
 Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgnxDm7oOYyf9kMg5DTsO8zSg+Ju0u6-E+sMXV1q9LBOg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
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 <028a01cec910$14500010$3cf00030$@att.net>
 <CAOJFdb+ZZ3a2jgnbk-nVyYBWye7pQD4MWwmniof97H-2DBFj3w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armgnxDm7oOYyf9kMg5DTsO8zSg+Ju0u6-E+sMXV1q9LBOg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131015102810.GZ10405@leitl.org>

On Tue, Oct 15, 2013 at 10:46:41AM +0100, BillK wrote:

> So, for security, the ideal solution is to jail or drone everybody
> except the NSA.
> Their future is an NSA enclave surrounded by smouldering wastelands.

Or you could defund TLAs, and jail the guys who broke laws,
and kept lying to Congress.


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Oct 15 12:39:04 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 14:39:04 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [Doctrinezero] Fwd: [London-Futurists] Books to review in
 London Futurists HOAs
Message-ID: <20131015123904.GG10405@leitl.org>

----- Forwarded message from Zero State <info at zerostate.net> -----

Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 13:30:01 +0100
From: Zero State <info at zerostate.net>
To: "doctrinezero at zerostate.is" <doctrinezero at zerostate.is>
Subject: [Doctrinezero] Fwd: [London-Futurists] Books to review in London Futurists HOAs
Message-ID: <CAAoBNdVTso=YTAvdWXaxB8yhTbBH6N+G1X+cTB8npobDwRN+yw at mail.gmail.com>
Reply-To: doctrinezero at zerostate.is

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: David Wood <davidw at deltawisdom.com>
Date: 15 October 2013 13:09
Subject: [London-Futurists] Books to review in London Futurists HOAs
To: London-Futurists-announce at meetup.com


Dear Futurists,

This Sunday (20th October), another meetup in the open online series of
London Futurists Hangout on Air takes place. It'a a panel discussion about
issues raised by the recent novel "The Transhumanist Wager" by Zoltan
Istvan. See *the event
page<http://www.meetup.com/London-Futurists/events/140297242/>
* for more details of that meetup, and the team of distinguished panellists
on this occasion: Giulio Prisco, Rick Searle, Chris T. Armstrong, and
Zoltan himself.

*Note 1:* a couple of people have asked me for more details about the
concept of "Transhumanist" mentioned in the title of Zoltan's book. To
provide some background, I've created a couple of pages over on the main
London Futurists website:

   - *Transhumanist
declarations<http://londonfuturists.com/2013/10/14/transhumanist-decalarations/>
   *: This contains a couple of short videos and some background material
   (including the 1957 definition of the word "Transhumanism" by Julian Huxley)
   - *Technoprogressives and
transhumanists<http://londonfuturists.com/2013/10/12/technoprogressives-and-transhumanists/>
   *: A short video about varieties of different futurists, including (you
   guessed it) technoprogressives and transhumanists).

*Note 2:* Depending on how quickly you can read, there's still (just about)
enough time to download and read through *Zoltan's
book<http://ziventures.com/TranshumanistWager.html>
* prior to the start time of the meetup (7pm UK time, i.e. BST = British
Summer Time). That way, you'll probably enjoy the discussion more fully
(though it's not a requirement to read the book before participating in the
meetup).

*Note 3:* We'll be using the Hangout On Air 'Questions' feature, which mean
that people watching the meetup from *my Google+
page<https://plus.google.com/104281987519632639471/posts>
* will be able to raise questions for answer by the panellists, and to vote
on questions raised by other viewers. This should help create a better
sense of a connected community jointly participating in an online event.

*But which books should feature in forthcoming London Futurist HOA panel
reviews?*

*This Google Moderator page
<http://www.google.com/moderator/#16/e=20f355>*contains a number of
suggestions. I invite you to get involved in voting
suggestions Up or Down, and to raise your own suggestions.

In casting votes, criteria you may like to consider include:

   - Is the book well-written? Was it a pleasure to read?
   - Does it raise important topics of interest to futurists?
   - Is the book something you would be happy to recommend to many of your
   friends that they should read it too? Or would you have reservations?
   - Is the book already a key part of discussion among people seriously
   interested in the future?

You can also leave comments explaining your reasons for voting other
suggestions Up or Down, or for having mixed feelings about a particular
book.

// David W. Wood
Chair, London Futurists




--
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WAVE: Positive Social Change Through Technology
http://wavism.net

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Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://ativel.com http://postbiota.org
AC894EC5: 38A5 5F46 A4FF 59B8 336B  47EE F46E 3489 AC89 4EC5


From eugen at leitl.org  Tue Oct 15 14:23:49 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 16:23:49 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Big nanotech: towards post-industrial manufacturing
Message-ID: <20131015142348.GJ10405@leitl.org>


http://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/14/big-nanotech-post-industrial-manufacturing-apm

Big nanotech: towards post-industrial manufacturing

Atomically precise manufacturing (APM) could transform the material basis of
human civilisation

A factory emits smoke and steam on a cold winter day

'An APM system amounts to a factory in a box.' Photograph: Nick Suydam/Alamy
What if nanotechnology could deliver on its original promise ? not only new,
useful, nanoscale products, but a new, transformative production technology
able to displace industrial production technologies and bring radical
improvements in production cost, scope, and resource efficiency?

What if we could raise the global material standard of living above that of
today's richest nations, while reducing impacts on Earth's environment? What
if we could manage a more rapid transition to zero net carbon emissions, and
(yet more challenging) could afford to build the systems that would be
required to capture, compress, and remove a trillion or so tons of
industrial-era CO2 from the atmosphere?

The technology in question is high-throughput atomically precise
manufacturing (APM), a prospect that will emerge from technologies that will
emerge from progress in atomically precise fabrication ? progress with
ongoing and surprising achievements today.

More concretely, one can think of APM as 3D printing perfected: a
factory-in-a-box technology based on what, by analogy with 3D printers, could
be called "nanofabbers".

APM-based production technologies will bond molecules together to make larger
and larger components, ultimately delivering products that range from
computer chips to aircraft to photovoltaics and household goods. The
principles of physics show that nanoscale machinery can direct bonding by
guiding the motion of molecules (and then larger components), and the
principles of engineering indicate that these nanoscale machines can and
should resemble the machines found in factories today: built of gears and
bearings, motors and conveyor belts ? smaller, different in detail, and yet
guiding similar motions in similar ways.

Why pay attention to a future technology?

Transformative economic and environmental prospects give reason to take a
close look at APM-level technologies, and all the more so because there's
reason to think the prospects are real.

For a suitably stodgy and weighty piece of evidence, in one of its many
dust-gathering studies, the US National Academy of Sciences looked at the
feasibility of APM and called for pursuing its development. For a document
with less institutional weight but more technical detail, add to the stack
the MIT doctoral dissertation (mine) that first explored the physics and
engineering of APM. For another, add a technology roadmap for APM developed
in conjunction with several of the US National Laboratories. (I mention these
credentialed, technical documents to distinguish APM technologies from a
clinging miasma of popularised mythologies ? Star Trek replicators,
nanomagicbots and the like.)

The potential of APM matters for our future because it is an aspect of the
potential of 21st-century technologies. It's past time for a discussion of
APM that begins with an understanding of what the technology is, its physical
basis, and how it could transform the material basis of human civilisation.

Perhaps the most surprising fact about APM is this: that it can be understood
today, both in outline and in sufficient scientific detail to fathom its
basic capabilities. This understanding is based on exploratory engineering, a
game in which the rules require shunning unknowns, relying only on known
science and engineering principles, a game of exploring potential
technologies that can be designed and analysed within those rules. In other
words, the rules require that the numbers can be checked, as they have been.

In the mid-20th century, exploratory engineering established that
liquid-fueled rockets could reach the moon. To achieve this required an
immense amount of further, more detailed engineering, but the numbers left no
room for doubt that the moon was within reach. Much the same is true today of
APM.

If the basic physical facts are so well established, why has the concept of
APM-level technology been controversial? This is also understandable, but the
story involves a tangle of science and fiction linked with money, press
coverage, Washington politics and sheer confusion. For now, however, I'd like
to set the confusion aside and outline the concept itself.

What kind of technology?

An APM system amounts to a factory in a box, but a kind of factory with
extraordinary capabilities. To understand the potential of this kind of
factory, consider the following comparison: APM strongly parallels today's
leading nanotechnology: the nanoelectronic technology that powers the
information revolution. Today's nanotechnology of digital electronics uses
intricate arrays of high-frequency, nanoscale electronic devices to move bits
and bytes from place to place and put them together to make precise patterns
of information ? perhaps an image displayed on a tablet computer.

Tomorrow's nanotechnology of atomically precise manufacturing will use
intricate arrays of high-frequency, nanoscale mechanical devices to move
atoms and molecules from place to place and put them together to make precise
patterns of matter ? perhaps an actual, physical tablet computer.

Nanoelectronic information technologies can put a computer in a desktop box;
Nanomechanical APM technologies can put a factory in a desktop box. Digital
electronics provides a general-purpose technology in the world of information
products; atomically precise manufacturing will provide a general-purpose
technology in the world of physical products, somewhat like 3D printing, but
able to do much, much more.

What does "general purpose" mean here? Consider the digital analogy again:
patterns of bits and bytes can form a virtually infinite range of images made
from a limited range of pixels; patterns of atoms and molecules can likewise
form a virtually infinite range of physical products made from a large yet
limited range of materials.

In 3D printing technology, fabbers cross over to making physical products,
building with bits of material in place of pixels. APM-based production
systems (nanofabbers?) will work with a wider range of materials and ultimate
precision: the range of potential APM products includes not only devices like
tablet computers with a billion processor cores and good battery life, but
also lightweight ultrastrong structures for aircraft, engines for
high-performance zero-emission vehicles, and rolls of solar photovoltaic
cells flexible and tough enough use in resurfacing a road.

Questions and more questions?

Prospects for atomically precise manufacturing raise many questions, as I
know from giving talks on the subject to both technical and general
audiences. I've outlined answers to only the most basic questions above ?
questions that are directly linked to the physics and engineering of
APM-based production. Here are some further and broader questions:

? What does APM have to do with the rest of nanotechnology?

? What is the state of relevant research, and what's next?

? When can we expect to see applications?

? What are the potential benefits and risks?

? What are the points of leverage today?

I'll explore some of these questions in later posts on this blog.

? Eric Drexler, often called "the father of nanotechnology", is currently at
Oxford with the Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, where he
completed his recent book, Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in
Nanotechnology Will Change Civilization


From spike66 at att.net  Tue Oct 15 15:54:01 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 08:54:01 -0700
Subject: [ExI] surveillance noose
In-Reply-To: <017c01cec95f$f9c311b0$ed493510$@att.net>
References: <017c01cec95f$f9c311b0$ed493510$@att.net>
Message-ID: <012301cec9be$c5839ff0$508adfd0$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of spike



>.Recall that this same government which is collecting all this stuff is the
one which requires strong passwords and plenty of personal information just
to shop on HealthCare.gov.  In light of the ".no reasonable expectation of
privacy." comment, can anyone explain why they would have done that?  spike

 

 

OK found the answer.  This was a huge debate in the design of HealthCare.gov
from the start: whether to allow anonymous window shopping in the insurance
markets.  The short version of the story is that after much discussion, the
Fed decided to disallow anonymous insurance shopping, and defeat the
creation of pseudonym accounts.  But most of the state exchanges, faced with
the same question, decided to allow anonymous shopping.  The 14 state
exchanges that allow anonymous shopping before purchase are said to be
mostly working, but the fed site has become an epic fail worthy of its own
fail poster.  The US gov has demonstrated repeatedly that it is an
untrustworthy and incompetent recipient of personal information.  So most
people decided to not hand over that information just to shop.  Imagine
that.

 

spike

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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 03:17:03 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 23:17:03 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <755D81DC-0949-4A64-A634-C225E3A0596F@me.com>
References: <mailman.69.1381463594.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <755D81DC-0949-4A64-A634-C225E3A0596F@me.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFi5rMyTPg2zWE2Oo3y7w-YCwQ2YQgikTTk-8u7qxp8g2g@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 4:33 AM, Omar Rahman <rahmans at me.com> wrote:
>
> Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 23:45:17 -0400
> From: Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>
> To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie
> Apocalypse!)
> Message-ID:
> <CAAc1gFgQ76Jtk4dQ3EWfk=8S3ayYzukDxNkxvJZYdspubqUcAA at mail.gmail.com>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
>
> (I wrote)
>
> Congress gave the president
>
> about 99% of the money he needs to run the government. The president
> refused to run the government, and shut it down. He could have taken
> the money and done his job but refused to.
>
> Do you agree that the president shut down the government?
>
>
> Omar wrote:
>
> In a word; no.
>
>
> You said, "Congress gave the president about 99% of the money he needs to
> run the government." This is just plain wrong.
>
> Congress is a bicameral legislature and it failed to pass an appropriations
> bill. The president had nothing to sign or veto, hence the president didn't
> shut down the government.

### The House of Representatives passed the appropriations bill. You
could claim that Mr Reid, who is the Senate Democrat leader, shut down
the government by refusing to confirm the House bill. This would be
fail to adequately describe reality - Mr Reid would not act in this
way without approval from Mr Obama. Hence, Mr Obama, in concert with
Mr Reid and other Democrats, shut down the government.
----------------
>
> What is far more likely to happen, as pointed to by the repeated use of the
> phrase "full faith and confidence of the government of the United States" by
> the president, is that this will reach a crisis level equal to that of a
> "national emergency" and the president will then be able to use "emergency
> powers" to resolve the standoff.

### In other words, as soon as democratic procedure does not yield
what you personally want, you wish to have a dictator ("elected" in a
rigged vote) take over. The wishes of others need not be heeded.

--------------
I am also quoting a bit more of your post:

>
> I'm guessing that even the most fanatical, racist, and fascist elements of
> the Tea Party will cave in before then. They should be called the Koolaid
> Party because they really seem to have 'drunk the koolaid'.

and:

>
> In general; "He of the Orange glow and Weepy eyes" afraid of the "Brethren
> of Koolaid" who made loud 'ugg ugg' for many time in the place of 50 clan
> chiefs. Great sky spirt X, Y, and Z has revealed to the Brethren of Koolaid
> that most harmful thing for people is 'healthcare' and best thing for people
> is big more guns. Now the Brethren of Koolaid make loud 'ugg ugg' in all
> place and no give gold rocks to nobody never nohow nowhen nowhy. NO  NO NO!
> UGG UGG!
>
> Until Main Street, Wall Street, and K Street finally have had enough and
> kick them right where they will say 'UGG uggg uggggg....'
>
> Are we clear?

### What is clear to me is that you have a tendency to deride people
who disagree with you in a very crude, contemptuous manner. I can only
hold up the example of other members of the list for you to learn
from. Have you ever seen e.g. Anders behave like you? This explains
why you are so comfortable with running roughshod over the wishes of
others - if they are fascist troglodytes, why should anyone care?

Live and learn.


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 03:32:11 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 23:32:11 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <20131011122126.GA10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011122126.GA10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFiPyLOC=qk6isCr=RFoUm44-i9fqGzY1Dk_TNgMmMmi9w@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 8:21 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>
> If there's a poor cryonics presence in your area, don't
> expect that by paying your member dues the situation will magically
> fix itself. You have to become a little more proactive.
>
> Many people all over the world are facing that problem, let's
> organize, that everybody can help themselves.

### I live in VA, only a couple of hours' flight from Scottsdale, so I
am reasonably well covered (although not as well as Californians or
Arizonians). The biggest problem could be a sudden death or unexpected
terminal hospital admission with loss of the ability to contact Alcor
(e.g. car accident with brain trauma, followed by ICU stay and death)
- in this situation you are screwed even if you live in Scottsdale
itself.

I wonder how difficult would it be to adapt a personal medical
monitoring system to cryonics needs. A device continuously worn on
your wrist, like an active cryonics bracelet, with the ability to
wirelessly scream for Alcor if you stop moving and body temperature
drops, would be pretty cool. The same device might be also readable by
EMS, and could contain power-of-attorney information, so the
likelihood of inappropriate end-of-life care would be reduced.

Rafal


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 03:49:46 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 23:49:46 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?
In-Reply-To: <20131011092745.GC10405@leitl.org>
References: <op.w31sxyu40wog37@kira> <20130927055747.GI10405@leitl.org>
 <op.w369gtne0wog37@kira> <20131001121829.GR10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8Rwbbb2pzn0xFQ=ytkVj3UAASS5HOiB4Uk+=4Oui7RHCEDQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131009203347.GA10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwbRBYCH0eCGFpHqe3XyHynjhp_Qc7dE+XtrNJcD1hnfCQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131010062556.GF10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwYv3XUoaxZhDYvMCYYw55uwZNcd+ac-5VWqMLkzBU8txw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFgrUvGHeqDw+notavfhKBMcS9F5EMANy+Bnw9=HQhEmFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011092745.GC10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFhOEg-jqFKO7Z+fCKaLyrfydbN9vQeGYFgLvP0dPDrVkw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 5:27 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> Thermodynamics trumps economics.

### Nah, it's the other way round. Not in the sense that money could
buy the perpetuum mobile but in the sense that our primary limitations
are not absolute, low level physical limits (e.g. total radiative
capacity of Earth at 500C surface temperature) but rather high-level
cognitive and social issues (stupidity, dominance, parasitism) that
keep us now at a level many orders of magnitude away from the physical
limits.

-------------------

 I tend to focus on thermodynamics
> vs. ecology because it's both a short-term large-scale problem
> and also a benchmark. It's useless trying to explain
> generic overshoot if you can't explain the one facet of it:
> the energy limitations. It's simple problem, we have lots of
> empirical data, yet that benchmark already indicates a failure.

### The inability to finish Yucca Mountain has nothing to do with
thermodynamics. Societal failure is like rotting fish - it starts at
the head.

Rafal


From spike66 at att.net  Wed Oct 16 03:51:36 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 20:51:36 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFi5rMyTPg2zWE2Oo3y7w-YCwQ2YQgikTTk-8u7qxp8g2g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.69.1381463594.4280.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <755D81DC-0949-4A64-A634-C225E3A0596F@me.com>
 <CAAc1gFi5rMyTPg2zWE2Oo3y7w-YCwQ2YQgikTTk-8u7qxp8g2g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <03a901ceca23$03f83f70$0be8be50$@att.net>


Rafal Smigrodzki
...
### The House of Representatives passed the appropriations bill...

A way to state all this taking personalities and parties out of it for the
sake of non-USian readers would be as follows:

The government passed a law with a new twist in it: the individual mandate
looked to most of us like the government ordering us to do something, buy
health insurance.  The government cannot order its citizens to do something.
It can only order us to not do something.  The Supreme Court court decided
the constitution does allow the individual mandate if the penalty for not
buying insurance is declared a tax.

Declaring the penalty a tax has interesting implications.  The House of
Representatives controls taxation and spending.  So under the constitution,
the House has the authority to set the penalty for non-compliance anywhere
it sees fit (since it is a tax) and to fund the law where it sees fit (since
it is spending.)  That means the body which has full constitutional
authority over the law is now in the hands of the party which voted against
it in perfect unison.

The Senate and the presidency are in the hands of the other party.  They
refuse to accept the authority of the opposing party over this law, as
granted by the constitution and affirmed by the Supreme Court.  So, those
two seats of power, the Senate and the president, veto any appropriations
bill the House sends up, all the way until the nation is on the verge of
default.

By that line of reasoning, the Senate and the president are responsible for
the partial shutdown and now threaten to send the government into default
unless the final irony is passed.

Final irony is seen tonight, two days before default.  The House and the
Senate have worked closer and closer to a deal, with the exception being the
House wants a version of the appropriations bill which requires congress to
be subject to the health care law.  The senate is refusing that provision,
and wants instead its own nearly identical bill but exempts congress from
the healthcare law that they are imposing on the rest of us.  So we see the
Senate willing to send the government into default in order to impose the
healthcare law on the citizens and simultaneously exempt themselves from
that law.

Any questions?

spike



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 04:04:47 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 00:04:47 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFj51bKA0UkzXQiXPORub1k7a8HGOjHCeQDUxu00=01hgg@mail.gmail.com>

On 10/11/13, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> I agree. However, there's a widespread tendency to underestimate
> what evolutionary-driven biology has managed to accomplish in
> a few gigayears. A synapse is pretty damn small
>
> http://www.nature.com/nrn/journal/v12/n7/box/nrn3025_BX2.html
>
> Characteristic sizes of the synaptic complex
>
> Synaptic active zone diameter: 300 ? 150 nm
> Synaptic vesicle diameter: 35 ? 0.3 up to 50 nm
> Synaptic cleft width: 20 ? 2.8 nm
> Number of docked vesicles: 10 ? 5
> Total number of vesicle per synaptic bouton: 270 ? 180

### And not to forget the post-synaptic structures, which contain
hundreds of precisely tuned protein complexes that allow finely graded
ajustments of synaptic strength. Still, I am sure there is physics
that allows signal processing of the same type as synapse (adjustable
gain, summation, conditional gain adjustment) and does not use
diffusion and gets the job done in a smaller volume. Evolution is
locked in a wet organic substrate, designers of upload substrates are
not. Definitely many order of magnitude speed gains and most likely
substantial size reductions are possible here.

----------------

>
>> There should be large improvements just from removing metabolism from
>> the brain. Human brain already does a little bit of that: Neurons
>
> Metabolism is dual-use here, because the elements are active.
> You can complain about hydration, but diffusion is very efficient
> on microscale, and there *is* active transport. We can complain
> about homeostasis, but hardware configurability depends on
> the same mechanisms. In nanoscale solid-state you're pretty much
> limited to arrays of static elements with very low intrinsic
> connectivity, so you have to state the network layer in terms
> of such syntax. Look at 10^4 connectivity, and look at the
> space it takes.

### This is a very good remark. I do think that a neuromorphic system
could be done with spatially separated layers, a solid state gain
adjustment layer analogous to learning in existing synapses and a
network reconfiguration layer analogous to the synaptogenesis/synaptic
elimination aspect of learning. The reconfiguration layer may require
some molecular rather than electron movement but you should be still
able to keep metabolism out of most parts of the device.
--------------------
>
> 100-1 cm^3 vs. ~1400 cm^3 is a very large percentage.

### ??

Rafal



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 04:16:01 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 00:16:01 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <5259888E.6040202@aleph.se>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv1O1Q4pcNeC34pXJfcorVfY0XqciRU3iOQJB92wBQ=7DQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5259888E.6040202@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFjT_AQtodLwXHc45t619ChjOHWV3ACYsnj8w3JqOjN6zw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Oct 12, 2013 at 1:36 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
>
> In fact, some approaches to neuromorphic hardware try to use analog
> electronics to get away from the messiness of adders and multipliers - the
> above operations can be done relatively neatly that way using. But the
> power, precision and low price of digital electronics tends to win most of
> the time.
>
> In the end, it is not obvious to me that a digital synapse can be made using
> silicon tech smaller than a real synapse. I would be surprised if an analog
> couldn't be done. Similarly speeding things up might be eminently doable,
> but while digital systems can vary clock frequencies continuously an analog
> synapse would actually be stuck at a single speed.
>
### I am fan of the locally-analog, systemwide-digital approach -
after all, Mother Nature used it to make us. That single speed of the
analog analog of a synapse isn't a problem if it is, well, the top
speed :)


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 04:37:18 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 00:37:18 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <016e01cec848$8dd9ba20$a98d2e60$@att.net>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv1O1Q4pcNeC34pXJfcorVfY0XqciRU3iOQJB92wBQ=7DQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5259888E.6040202@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv1rsqze5Nysvis8VJKHbyQKtWEzmsZjd_9hnwNFt4PvsA@mail.gmail.com>
 <00a101cec82f$a22bf150$e683d3f0$@att.net>
 <20131013180258.GR10405@leitl.org>
 <016e01cec848$8dd9ba20$a98d2e60$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFgsB7+iykyPN0yHvsYaULV6jNNVcCU1Qg3LrvfKn8mYWg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 13, 2013 at 3:15 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
> We could imagine retrofitting existing cars with the sensors, but that would
> be costly.

### If you watch Mythbusters, they retrofit jalopies for remote
control on the cheap. A fully doped out driving computer might make do
with 6 - 7 cameras and some microphones for its sensor suite, all off
the shelf stuff. Adding autonomous driving capability to random old
cars should be quite cheap eventually - although it's possible that
the software/system vendors would initially refuse to offer retrofit
kits and rather try to push new cars out.
----------------

 I can imagine a next-generation idea: driving robots capable of
> taking a current Detroit and driving it unmodified, as is.  It would need to
> be able to take the keys, open the door, get in, start the car, drive it
> somewhere safely, come back, lock it and leave.

### Eh, with trivial modifications that robot could drive to your
house and stay, as long as you wished to pay for her company..... but
that's a whole new generation, indeed.

Rafal


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 04:50:51 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 00:50:51 -0400
Subject: [ExI] [Bulk] Re: eput this crazy system out of our misery: was
 RE: Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2UORz0-dxfYyx=RW8LG-UL7-u_5pjW3uEkCEpQ9LBxeg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
 <033301cec7a9$21a699d0$64f3cd70$@yahoo.com>
 <20131013083137.GJ10405@leitl.org>
 <CAJPayv2UORz0-dxfYyx=RW8LG-UL7-u_5pjW3uEkCEpQ9LBxeg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFjjZXnO9oyN=_-sjaP=8UnLAJTKJtKYZhgxP2dFha8gcQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 13, 2013 at 1:55 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> I guess, it's just that right at this minute my long range planing and
> concerns don't extend much beyond Thursday.
>
>>
>> > Don't buy into staged fights between two wings of the same party.
>
>
> I hope it's a stage fight because that would imply a script exists, but I
> think its like a toddler playing with a loaded automatic pistol and the
> Republicans don't know what they're doing or how dangerous it is.

### I don't understand the doom mood. Obviously, there is no
possibility of Republicans causing as USG default. The government has
all the money it needs to keep paying its debts, since tax receipts
continue. Only a premeditated decision by the executive branch to
withhold payment (despite having the funds) could cause a default.
This is not going to happen, one way or another. So all this talking
about default is only a smokescreen.

Rafal


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 04:54:33 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 00:54:33 -0400
Subject: [ExI] [Bulk] Re: eput this crazy system out of our misery: was
 RE: Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <008701cec825$bb454fb0$31cfef10$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
 <033301cec7a9$21a699d0$64f3cd70$@yahoo.com>
 <20131013083137.GJ10405@leitl.org>
 <03b501cec81c$4f8a8280$ee9f8780$@yahoo.com>
 <CAL_armjNYjN8FFRrb1oM9Cnymd6=-HrzUHgCXX=0LHBgxp+Nsw@mail.gmail.com>
 <008701cec825$bb454fb0$31cfef10$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFjm1_7+dpHT7RnB0i8Y33akm=OpYEh9ET33213HY_JGrA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 13, 2013 at 11:06 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK
>

>>...But this is not the place for conspiracy theories or shouting political
> slogans like 'Reps Good, Dems bad!'.
> Neither look likely to solve the present problems... BillK
>
> Seconded.  Political advocacy is not welcome here.

### I don't think Lloyd says "Reps Good, Dems bad" or advances
conspiracy theories. He said they were blithering fools and cunning
tyrants, respectively. That hardly counts as advocacy.

Rafal


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 04:58:20 2013
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 00:58:20 -0400
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armg_yLeLn-sjQYxhOB2QjuY-OxdKBdqJQvic==TD6c4Atw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f101cec607$730f5b20$592e1160$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2qD5NThbx3Dju06jRaHZqB22a7yw2as1L6sc3t74sioA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFg5Jk7qxkDDy1niQ+=1g1OSwHNEO+dBp=GQ76jxCwhNYg@mail.gmail.com>
 <02ef01cec63f$491a1b10$db4e5130$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3Dqozg_jHvBqh9R+A7KJ1PUKbjHjhBRy-s3MwUHEAO9g@mail.gmail.com>
 <01f201cec6ad$8f504f50$adf0edf0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3d0eW1ONLzieVV2H7pyXBy533-u7ZW=Dpj29u0y8RzuA@mail.gmail.com>
 <01cb01cec79f$1bd0f690$5372e3b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg_yLeLn-sjQYxhOB2QjuY-OxdKBdqJQvic==TD6c4Atw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFiJvDX5Y+jhULxiDdjLMOO5kUAduCq1dScC1zz0grMU1Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 6:50 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> The O-care system wasn't actually built by the guv'mnt.

### Who paid for it? Gummint. Who made up the bullshit rules? Gummint.
Who hired the cronies who actually coded the bullshit into a dystopian
reality? Gummint.

So, Ocare was built by gummint.

Rafal


From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Oct 16 06:33:18 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 08:33:18 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Another step towards uploading
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFiPyLOC=qk6isCr=RFoUm44-i9fqGzY1Dk_TNgMmMmi9w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1aoc5qzS0v-nqPtxdpo67H9_DiU3ZkYYh45uMLv=ABPg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj628=wZRx17kS46MowgEFPMcd6x0ZSz13GFUmL5cAO1Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011122126.GA10405@leitl.org>
 <CAAc1gFiPyLOC=qk6isCr=RFoUm44-i9fqGzY1Dk_TNgMmMmi9w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131016063318.GN10405@leitl.org>

On Tue, Oct 15, 2013 at 11:32:11PM -0400, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:

> I wonder how difficult would it be to adapt a personal medical
> monitoring system to cryonics needs. A device continuously worn on
> your wrist, like an active cryonics bracelet, with the ability to
> wirelessly scream for Alcor if you stop moving and body temperature
> drops, would be pretty cool. The same device might be also readable by
> EMS, and could contain power-of-attorney information, so the
> likelihood of inappropriate end-of-life care would be reduced.

This is being worked upon, albeit slowly. The current spike
of activity was due to availability of cheap and reliable monitoring
devices from the quantified self movement. We don't have anything
sufficiently reliable yet, but that is a question of time.


From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Oct 16 06:36:14 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 08:36:14 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Smallest human-equivalent device
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFj51bKA0UkzXQiXPORub1k7a8HGOjHCeQDUxu00=01hgg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFiUkYJ3dwhVGYWXgSWjk0ptGE1OZNhofHj=LrtCBtvU-g@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131011083729.GZ10405@leitl.org>
 <CAAc1gFj51bKA0UkzXQiXPORub1k7a8HGOjHCeQDUxu00=01hgg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131016063614.GO10405@leitl.org>

On Wed, Oct 16, 2013 at 12:04:47AM -0400, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:

> >
> > 100-1 cm^3 vs. ~1400 cm^3 is a very large percentage.
> 
> ### ??

The range of 1...100 cm^3 vs ~1.4 l.


From rahmans at me.com  Wed Oct 16 13:08:27 2013
From: rahmans at me.com (Omar Rahman)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 15:08:27 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <mailman.3.1381924801.28512.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.3.1381924801.28512.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <464AC9FE-3ECB-4779-9CFB-65632E925E2D@me.com>


Dear Rafa?,

Let me begin by apologising. It was not my intent to 'run roughshod' over anyone, simple to inject a bit of humour into what to me is a pharisaical situation. While I may not agree with your political opinions I do respect you as a scientist, list member, and as a human being.

However;


> Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 23:17:03 -0400
> From: Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>
> To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie
> 	Apocalypse!)
> Message-ID:
> 	<CAAc1gFi5rMyTPg2zWE2Oo3y7w-YCwQ2YQgikTTk-8u7qxp8g2g at mail.gmail.com>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
> 
> On Fri, Oct 11, 2013 at 4:33 AM, Omar Rahman <rahmans at me.com> wrote:
>> 
>> Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 23:45:17 -0400
>> From: Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>
>> To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
>> Subject: Re: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie
>> Apocalypse!)
>> Message-ID:
>> <CAAc1gFgQ76Jtk4dQ3EWfk=8S3ayYzukDxNkxvJZYdspubqUcAA at mail.gmail.com>
>> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
>> 
>> (I wrote)
>> 
>> Congress gave the president
>> 
>> about 99% of the money he needs to run the government. The president
>> refused to run the government, and shut it down. He could have taken
>> the money and done his job but refused to.
>> 
>> Do you agree that the president shut down the government?
>> 
>> 
>> Omar wrote:
>> 
>> In a word; no.
>> 
>> 
>> You said, "Congress gave the president about 99% of the money he needs to
>> run the government." This is just plain wrong.
>> 
>> Congress is a bicameral legislature and it failed to pass an appropriations
>> bill. The president had nothing to sign or veto, hence the president didn't
>> shut down the government.
> 
> ### The House of Representatives passed the appropriations bill. You
> could claim that Mr Reid, who is the Senate Democrat leader, shut down
> the government by refusing to confirm the House bill. This would be
> fail to adequately describe reality - Mr Reid would not act in this
> way without approval from Mr Obama. Hence, Mr Obama, in concert with
> Mr Reid and other Democrats, shut down the government.
> ----------------

The Senate has no obligation whatsoever to rubber-stamp the House's bills. That's just not how it's designed to work. It matters not what their supposed motivations.

>> 
>> What is far more likely to happen, as pointed to by the repeated use of the
>> phrase "full faith and confidence of the government of the United States" by
>> the president, is that this will reach a crisis level equal to that of a
>> "national emergency" and the president will then be able to use "emergency
>> powers" to resolve the standoff.
> 
> ### In other words, as soon as democratic procedure does not yield
> what you personally want, you wish to have a dictator ("elected" in a
> rigged vote) take over. The wishes of others need not be heeded.
> 
> --------------

This is not a bug it's a feature. If the rest of the government fails to act, or there is some other national emergency, the President has been empowered to act within the framework of "Emergency Powers".

In terms of 'democratic pressure', the last presidential election was run primarily on this issue and the people spoke in favour of Obama/"Obamacare".

In terms of 'democratic pressure', the democratic party holds a majority in the Senate.

In terms of 'democratic pressure', the democratic party got (many) more votes for members of the House but thanks to Republican gerrymandering (which happens at a state level) they failed to get a majority.

> I am also quoting a bit more of your post:
> 
>> 
>> I'm guessing that even the most fanatical, racist, and fascist elements of
>> the Tea Party will cave in before then. They should be called the Koolaid
>> Party because they really seem to have 'drunk the koolaid'.
> 
> and:
> 
>> 
>> In general; "He of the Orange glow and Weepy eyes" afraid of the "Brethren
>> of Koolaid" who made loud 'ugg ugg' for many time in the place of 50 clan
>> chiefs. Great sky spirt X, Y, and Z has revealed to the Brethren of Koolaid
>> that most harmful thing for people is 'healthcare' and best thing for people
>> is big more guns. Now the Brethren of Koolaid make loud 'ugg ugg' in all
>> place and no give gold rocks to nobody never nohow nowhen nowhy. NO  NO NO!
>> UGG UGG!
>> 
>> Until Main Street, Wall Street, and K Street finally have had enough and
>> kick them right where they will say 'UGG uggg uggggg....'
>> 
>> Are we clear?
> 
> ### What is clear to me is that you have a tendency to deride people
> who disagree with you in a very crude, contemptuous manner. I can only
> hold up the example of other members of the list for you to learn
> from. Have you ever seen e.g. Anders behave like you? This explains
> why you are so comfortable with running roughshod over the wishes of
> others - if they are fascist troglodytes, why should anyone care?
> 
> Live and learn.


I ascend into the realms of humour when faced with the absurd. This seems to me to be a healthy reaction.

At no time have I made fun of you personally Rafa?, unless indirectly if are a Tea Party (Brethren of the Koolaid) member.

I will not apologise for making fun of the Tea Party though. I find them threatening and offensive in the extreme and see no reason to coddle their feelings.

Regards,

Omar Rahman

P.S. Anders does rock! I've watched him on YouTube and I'm a fan I think! Squeeeee!

P.P.S. If someone is a fascist troglodyte they will by definition try to kill/enslave/disempower/repress some group and I hope that I find the courage to oppose them if that day comes.


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From eugen at leitl.org  Wed Oct 16 13:17:57 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 15:17:57 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [CryonicsVitalSignsAlerts] Quantified Self Forums
Message-ID: <20131016131757.GD10405@leitl.org>

----- Forwarded message from ben_best_ci <benbest at gmx.com> -----

Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 11:29:45 -0000
From: ben_best_ci <benbest at gmx.com>
To: CryonicsVitalSignsAlerts at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [CryonicsVitalSignsAlerts] Quantified Self Forums
Message-ID: <l3ltb9+c5sa at eGroups.com>
User-Agent: eGroups-EW/0.82
X-Mailer: Yahoo Groups Message Poster
Reply-To: CryonicsVitalSignsAlerts at yahoogroups.com


Last week I was able to attend the 2013 Quantified Self 
conference in San Francisco. It was a fantastic experience. 
I am now geared-up to quantify myself in even more ways
than 23andme, blood tests, etc. There was an exhibitors' area
at the conference. One of the more promising products that 
I saw was Vital Connect http://www.vitalconnect.com/ which 
will reportedly be available in the first quarter of 2014. 
I have had so many disappointments in the past that I am 
not holding my breath, but they do seem credible. 

There is much that life extensionists can appreciate at a
Quantified Self conference. The QS community is a bunch of folks
gathering data about themselves for the purpose of self-improvement
in a wide range of areas, health in particular. They have forums
that are open for participation by anyone, so I would encourage
anyone interested in this area to investigate:

https://forum.quantifiedself.com/

      -- Ben Best 

--- In CryonicsVitalSignsAlerts at yahoogroups.com, "ben_best_ci" <benbest at ...> wrote:
>
> 
>   I am at the SENS Conference in Cambridge, England
> where I ran into Brent Erskin. Brent was formerly 
> involved in the Toronto cryonics group, but he is 
> now living in northern British Columbia (Rupert, 
> Terrace area). 
> 
>   Aside from his hospital networking expertise,
> Brent is an expert in Apple apps, which he says
> are much more advanced and numerous than what is
> available for Android devices. Brent has been 
> very interested in the subject of vital signs
> monitoring -- not simply as alerts of the
> moment of death, but to provide alerts that
> would allow prediction of impending death
> (which would be better for cryonics purposes
> than an alarm after death has occurred). 
> 
> Brent has attended two of the Quantified 
> Self" conferences. 
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantified_Self
> 
> I have booked a flight to attend the upcoming
> conference in October, although Brent says he
> will not be attending this one. 
> 
> http://quantifiedself.com/topics/conference-2/
> 
> Brent is currently most excited about "Scanadu Scout"
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scanadu
> 
> http://www.scanadu.com/scout/
> 
> which is expected to be released before the end 
> of 2013. It is a device uses optics to read blood
> values when held next to the forehead. This is not
> continuous monitoring. It does not appear to me to
> give heart rate and blood pressure, but Brent claims
> that it will. Of course, we still want a device that
> will send an alarm to a call center -- and provide
> GPS information about the location and identity 
> of the sender. 
> 
> I have invited Brent to join this group, and hope
> that he will contribute his extensive knowledge about
> medical device apps. And get the discussion going-again
> on this Yahoo Group. 
> 
>                 -- Ben Best
>




------------------------------------

Yahoo! Groups Links

<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/CryonicsVitalSignsAlerts/

<*> Your email settings:
    Individual Email | Traditional

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----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://ativel.com http://postbiota.org
AC894EC5: 38A5 5F46 A4FF 59B8 336B  47EE F46E 3489 AC89 4EC5


From rahmans at me.com  Wed Oct 16 13:30:02 2013
From: rahmans at me.com (Omar Rahman)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 15:30:02 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <mailman.3.1381924801.28512.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.3.1381924801.28512.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <93F7CEE9-D437-4D89-9C64-459AA4A422F4@me.com>

> 
> Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 20:51:36 -0700
> From: "spike" <spike66 at att.net>
> To: <rafal at smigrodzki.org>, "'ExI chat list'"
> 	<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie
> 	Apocalypse!)
> Message-ID: <03a901ceca23$03f83f70$0be8be50$@att.net>
> Content-Type: text/plain;	charset="us-ascii"
> 
> 
> Rafal Smigrodzki
> ...
> ### The House of Representatives passed the appropriations bill...
> 
> A way to state all this taking personalities and parties out of it for the
> sake of non-USian readers would be as follows:
> 
> The government passed a law with a new twist in it: the individual mandate
> looked to most of us like the government ordering us to do something, buy
> health insurance.  The government cannot order its citizens to do something.
> It can only order us to not do something.  The Supreme Court court decided
> the constitution does allow the individual mandate if the penalty for not
> buying insurance is declared a tax.

The government can and does have the power to order it's citizens to do something. For example we must provide education to our children either in schools or through homeschooling. I like education. It used to issue draft notices. I'm not so keen on that. There are probably lots more examples but these two will suffice. Oh, car insurance is another one that comes to mind due to relevance.

> 
> Declaring the penalty a tax has interesting implications.  The House of
> Representatives controls taxation and spending.  So under the constitution,
> the House has the authority to set the penalty for non-compliance anywhere
> it sees fit (since it is a tax) and to fund the law where it sees fit (since
> it is spending.)  That means the body which has full constitutional
> authority over the law is now in the hands of the party which voted against
> it in perfect unison.
> 
> The Senate and the presidency are in the hands of the other party.  They
> refuse to accept the authority of the opposing party over this law, as
> granted by the constitution and affirmed by the Supreme Court.  So, those
> two seats of power, the Senate and the president, veto any appropriations
> bill the House sends up, all the way until the nation is on the verge of
> default.
> 
> By that line of reasoning, the Senate and the president are responsible for
> the partial shutdown and now threaten to send the government into default
> unless the final irony is passed.
> 
> Final irony is seen tonight, two days before default.  The House and the
> Senate have worked closer and closer to a deal, with the exception being the
> House wants a version of the appropriations bill which requires congress to
> be subject to the health care law.  The senate is refusing that provision,
> and wants instead its own nearly identical bill but exempts congress from
> the healthcare law that they are imposing on the rest of us.  So we see the
> Senate willing to send the government into default in order to impose the
> healthcare law on the citizens and simultaneously exempt themselves from
> that law.
> 
> Any questions?
> 
> spike

This is an interesting take on things but as I've said before elsewhere, the Senate has no duty to rubber-stamp any bill sent up by the House. I really have no interest in playing the 'blame game' but the Republicans did sign an open letter stating that they would shut down the government unless "Obamacare" was defunded/destroyed/whatever.

This is all part of a political game where the Republicans are backing themselves into the corners of their gerrymandered districts. They have placed themselves so firmly on the wrong side on demographic trends that just to remain 'centrist' the Democratic party has slid to the right just from the huge power vacuum the Republicans are creating.

I'm sure that somehow it is ironic that the members of Congress, even radical Tea Party people I assume, have the government funded health care that they are so afraid of. Why would you personally Spike pass a bill that took away your government funded health care so that you could get government funded health care? It seems quite logical to strip that nonsensical provision from the bill.

Regards,

Omar Rahman

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From spike66 at att.net  Wed Oct 16 14:19:10 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 07:19:10 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <464AC9FE-3ECB-4779-9CFB-65632E925E2D@me.com>
References: <mailman.3.1381924801.28512.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <464AC9FE-3ECB-4779-9CFB-65632E925E2D@me.com>
Message-ID: <00fb01ceca7a$af7cdde0$0e7699a0$@att.net>

 

 

 

On Behalf Of Omar Rahman
Subject: Re: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)

 

 

>?Dear Rafa?,

 

>?Let me begin by apologising?

 

 

Rafal and Omar you are a true gentlemen.  Excellent, me lads.

 

 

>?The Senate has no obligation whatsoever to rubber-stamp the House's bills. That's just not how it's designed to work. It matters not what their supposed motivations?Regards,  Omar Rahman

 

 

There is one more important layer of subtlety, critically important in that argument.  The way the constitution is designed, the responsibility for a budget is on the House of Representatives.  The Senate has veto power, as they have demonstrated, and they can counter propose and negotiate, as can the president.  But neither of those two can legislate into existence funding or taxation.  The House must do that, for that is their responsibility and their authority. 

 

If the other two seats of power refuse the House?s budget, there is a contingency called the CR or continuing resolution, which keeps the government in business.  At the tail end of George Bush?s term, a giant pile of money was spent by the government to rescue the banking system which was declared too big to fail.  That was then considered part of the 2008 spending, so the next year, congress was unable to agree and failed to pass a budget.  So they just passing a CR, which kept the spending at the same absurd level as the 2008.  The same thing happened every year since.

 

Being able to pass a CR, which is functionally equivalent to a huge one-time bank rescue operation every year, effectively defeats the ability of congress to control spending, which is what happened.  The constitution was brilliantly designed that way: the house which faces re-election every two years and is thus closest to the voters, is responsible for taxation and spending.  The president is elected every four years and is term limited, the senate every six.  So the latter two seats of power have by design veto power, but the House is the boss on the budget.  That one-time ?stimulus package? partially defeated the intention of the constitution.

 

So, we end up with farces lie we are seeing now.  The house wanted to defund ObamaCare, which it can legally do, the Senate kept saying no, which it can legally do, and the two sides negotiated until it comes down to one major point of disagreement.  Currently congress is exempt from ObamaCare.  The House has proposed a funding bill like the Senate?s version in every way except congress would not be exempt from ObamaCare; congress would be under the same system it is imposing on the proletariat.  The Senate doesn?t like that idea, but there is still one further interesting observation: both opposition and agreement with both plans are seen in both parties in both houses.  Now it is unclear which plan will succeed, but as a member of the proletariat who does not believe this system could work as written, I hope they subject congress to the same plan we are having forced upon us.  It will motivate them to fix it.

 

spike

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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 15:18:05 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 11:18:05 -0400
Subject: [ExI] [Bulk] Re: eput this crazy system out of our misery: was
 RE: Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFjjZXnO9oyN=_-sjaP=8UnLAJTKJtKYZhgxP2dFha8gcQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3EXRL3yeiiy582SX=LSr+YQhCfiaf95mgDp7-V+r+Gyw@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAJPayv3XZMT3zOh6jwpZ930=t02_59V95ZZyVkJtjE7mPAiQdg@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 16, 2013 at 12:50 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:

> I don't understand the doom mood.
>

I do.

> Obviously, there is no possibility of Republicans causing as USG default.
>

I hope you're right but every time I figure they can't possibly be that
stupid the Republicans prove me wrong.

> The government has all the money it needs to keep paying its debts, since
> tax receipts
> continue.


That's what scares me, I think you sincerely believe that is true, and I
think the Republicans and the millions of voters that put them into office
sincerely believe it also, but no reputable economist on the planet does.
Sincerity is a vastly overrated virtue and if you want to watch a infant
playing with a loaded handgun just turn on C-span.

Money is a very abstract thing and it only has value because people think
it does, and they think it does because people have faith that the
government will keep it's word and pay it's bills when it says it will. If
that faith is eroded, as it will be very very soon unless action is taken,
it will be catastrophic. Forget about global warming in the next century,
worry about what the world will be like one month from today if the
Republicans get their way.

  John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Wed Oct 16 15:39:16 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 08:39:16 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <93F7CEE9-D437-4D89-9C64-459AA4A422F4@me.com>
References: <mailman.3.1381924801.28512.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <93F7CEE9-D437-4D89-9C64-459AA4A422F4@me.com>
Message-ID: <013601ceca85$e00afa40$a020eec0$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of Omar Rahman
Subject: Re: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)

 


Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2013 20:51:36 -0700
From: "spike" < <mailto:spike66 at att.net> spike66 at att.net>



>>.The government cannot order its citizens to do something.
It can only order us to not do something.  The Supreme Court court decided
the constitution does allow the individual mandate if the penalty for not
buying insurance is declared a tax.

 

>.The government can and does have the power to order it's citizens to do
something.

 

Only by specific authority from the constitution.  Read on please.

 

>. For example we must provide education to our children either in schools
or through homeschooling.

 

The federal government cannot and does not command its citizens to education
their children, the state governments do.  The Federal government empowers
and requires state governments to provide public education.  State
governments can and do require its citizens to educate their children in
some fashion.  In some states, such as Idaho, it is almost just a mere
formality, this state being extremely open-minded on what constitutes home
schooling.  The federal constitution says not a word about education.  

 

>. It used to issue draft notices.

 

Ja, this is a power specifically enumerated in the constitution, article 1,
section 8, clause 12:  "Congress has the power to raise and support armies."

 

>.Oh, car insurance is another one that comes to mind due to relevance.

 

Car insurance is required by state governments.  The US constitution has not
one word in there about cars or insurance.  

 

There has never been a serious attempt to insert a car insurance requirement
into the constitution.  Likewise with drivers' licenses.  Some states are
issuing them to illegal immigrants.  They are asking the Fed to make other
states recognize those licenses, but the Fed cannot do that, for the
constitution does not allow them that authority.  So some states recognize
drivers licenses of illegals from other states and some do not.  Likewise
with same-sex marriage: the Fed cannot order all states to recognize those
marriage contracts made in states where it is allowed: the constitution does
not contain the words sex or marriage.  

 

I do confess I would be entertained by any attempt to add an amendment
covering those.  Would they try to imitate Jeffersonian English?  How would
they define cars?  As a teenager I used to drive a conveyance that might
challenge attempts at definition.  Legally defining a conveyance is more
difficult than it sounds.  How would they define gender?  Could we see terms
for specific organs mentioned in the constitution?  This should be
entertaining.  

 

>. There are probably lots more examples but these two will suffice.

 

Omar, I will stand by and wait patiently for those examples.  But your point
is well taken and refuted thus: the Federal government has many clear
restrictions on its power imposed by a constitution which was carefully and
brilliantly designed by those who knew a lot about what power does to
people, having fresh experience with European tyrants.  The constitution
relies heavily on state governments, and is codified by the last (but
certainly not least) of the amendments in the Bill of Rights, amendment 10:


 

'The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor
prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or
to the people.'

 

Bravo!  Excellent work, my founding fathers!

 

In order for the federal government to legally order the citizen to do
anything requires a specific amendment or power specifically enumerated in
the constitution, examples being payment of income tax (16th amendment) and
the draft (A1S8c12.)  My argument from the start is if the Fed wants an
individual mandate, it must first get a constitutional amendment granting it
the specific authority to do that.  I still think they should do that as
step 1.

 

The reason this is so relevant to our day is that if you have fifty
competing governments, somewhere in that bunch is a government which does
things most to your liking.  I choose California, warts and all.  We all get
to choose our favorite government, and we as American citizens have the
right to immigrate into any of those fifty states, to choose our favorite
government.  We do not have the right to go to any country in the world.  We
can make arrangements for any country if we have a ton of money of course,
universal rule.  But we have the right to choose any state in the US,
regardless of our ability to pay.

 

I recognize the argument that having 50 governments is not more efficient
than having one, but that argument is irrelevant, for the constitution does
not contain the term efficient, and the US government has certainly
demonstrated that it does not know the definition of the term.

 


>.I'm sure that somehow it is ironic that the members of Congress, even
radical Tea Party people I assume, have the government funded health care
that they are so afraid of.

 

That's the current fight.  The irony is that congressional proponents of
ObamaCare want to make sure congress is exempt from it.  Congressional
opponents of ObamaCare are arguing that congress should be subject to the
rules they impose on the proletariat.  Which sounds right to you?  Ja, me
too.  Make congress eat the same turd sandwich they serve up to the rest of
us.

 

 

>. Why would you personally Spike pass a bill that took away your government
funded health care so that you could get government funded health care? It
seems quite logical to strip that nonsensical provision from the bill.
Regards, Omar Rahman

 

Omar, this is a common misperception.  ObamaCare really isn't government
funded health care.  It is tax-incentivized buy-in to the health insurance
system (which is legal) coupled with a pile of restrictions on the health
insurance industry's rate and payout structure (which probably is not legal
and certainly not workable as written) along with a couple thousand pages of
legislation which never should have been tacked on to this bill.

 

Omar, what this is really all about is far more than health care.  The
ObamaCare law as written gives the federal government powers that appear to
be outside the rigid bounds of the constitution.  Some are comfortable with
that, but I am not.  They should have gotten an open-ended constitutional
amendment first, such as our 16th amendment, which created the IRS.

 

Perhaps a still larger objection is that I can see the law as written will
not and cannot succeed.  It relies too heavily on young and healthy people
buying and overpaying for health insurance.  I predict that they will opt
out in perfect unison and pay the tax penalty (which isn't much) then come
crawling back if they get sick.  From the insurance company's point of view,
it would be the high school track team running the other way and the zombie
horde from Thriller staggering inbound with huge medical bills in their
rotting hands.  Any young and healthy who buys in, I wouldn't trust them.
The system cannot succeed without them.  I personally would benefit greatly
if they all came in and paid, for they subsidize my health insurance costs.
I personally reap great benefits if it works.  But it will not.  

 

ObamaCare is the most poorly designed piece of legislation in American
history, utterly without exception.  It was never properly debated on the
floor of the Senate and is full of obvious flaws, such as the one cited
above: the government imposes on the insurance companies a rate structure.
The only person in government who has read the whole thing is Ted Cruz, the
man who railed against it for over 20 hours and was just getting warmed up.
His so-called filibuster is the bulk of the public debate on the topic.  I
think we need to start all over with a clean sheet of paper.  

 

spike

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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 16:03:57 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 12:03:57 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
Message-ID: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>

For those living in a fools paradise and think the failure to extend the
debt ceiling is no big deal this is what Warren Buffett, a man who knows a
thing or two about money, has to say on the subject:

"I'm worried about damage to an asset that we've carefully cultivated for
237 years [...] it would be asinine for the U.S. to risk its hard-won
reputation for paying its bills on time.[...] There are certain weapons
that are just improper to use against humanity," It is a political weapon
of mass destruction and both sides should say we?re not going to touch it,
just like with poison gas or nuclear weapons. It?s too powerful."

  John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Wed Oct 16 16:27:15 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 09:27:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark
Sent: Wednesday, October 16, 2013 9:04 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
"asinine"

 

For those living in a fools paradise and think the failure to extend the
debt ceiling is no big deal this is what Warren Buffett, a man who knows a
thing or two about money, has to say on the subject:  .   John K Clark

 


John everyone, even the Tea Party, agrees default is bad.  The argument is
really about who is doing it and why we keep hitting the debt limit with
mind-numbing regularity, as well as how to stop hitting it it and what to do
if the lenders stop lending, which is looking like a more distinct
possibility very day.

spike

 

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From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 16:37:42 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 09:37:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
In-Reply-To: <525CF0D6.7060302@aleph.se>
References: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <525BBDB8.5060308@aleph.se>
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 <525BD350.5010909@aleph.se>
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On Tue, Oct 15, 2013 at 12:37 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> But just as there is http://www.privateislandsonline.com/ there has to be
> some cat cloning company.
>

Several, in fact.  Just google "cat cloning company" (and note that it's
searched on often enough that Google autofills that search term).
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From spike66 at att.net  Wed Oct 16 16:37:29 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 09:37:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <020701ceca8e$01aee910$050cbb30$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike




>.John everyone, even the Tea Party, agrees default is bad.  The argument is
really about who is doing it and why we keep hitting the debt limit with
mind-numbing regularity, as well as how to stop hitting it it and what to do
if the lenders stop lending, which is looking like a more distinct
possibility very day. spike

 

 

I was wrong on an earlier prediction.  I thought they would work until
midnight tonight before announcing congress has reached a deal.  They just
announced they reached a deal today at noon, 12 hours ahead of where I
predicted.  So now I am more cautious but still confident on my next
prediction: we will see a similar phony crisis again on or around 7
February, when we are again at the debt limit.  

It could be the Mr. Obama was correct when he said that raising the debt
limit does not increase debt.  In that case we never hit that debt limit
again and the whole problem goes away.  

I jest of course.

They will borrow it all, hit the new temporary funding limit on 15 January,
have another phony partial shutdown (or slimdown as they are calling it) as
we did a couple weeks ago, argue and thrash about right up until the debt
limit on 7 February, then dish out another three or four months' temporary
funding with none of the underlying problems solved at all.

Not that Americans are growing cynical and skeptical of our own government
or anything.

spike

 

 

 

 

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From mlatorra at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 17:12:36 2013
From: mlatorra at gmail.com (Michael LaTorra)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 11:12:36 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAPGs0J_oJanEbfc0E_ivYcxCswk1zco=Lz5vrEYyqfc9pSjvew@mail.gmail.com>

The way to deal with the debt is to reduce it over time, through a
combination of decreased spending and increased taxes, not by default or
repudiation. The Tea Party is concerned about the debt like an abortionist
is concerned about a fetus. Don't let those people anywhere near my baby!

Seriously, the Tea Party is the problem here. Many months ago, Boehner and
Obama reached an agreement for dealing with the debt that included just
what I said above: decreased spending and increased taxes over the long
term. The Tea Party faction (which is the tail that wags the Republican dog
these days) would have none of it. For them, taxes must only move in one
direction: toward zero. Their mindless absolutism scuttled what could have
been the solution. The Tea Party is intransigent and, frankly, not too
bright. Their rigidity combined with their stupidity just could be the
thing that sinks their ship...and ours.

And by ours, I don't mean only the American ship of state, or the nation. I
mean the global economy. If America gets the flu, the rest of the world
gets cancer. The dollar is the international reserve currency. US
government bonds and other Treasury securities are the investment of choice
for sovereign wealth funds and individual investors of means who seek to
preserve the portion of their capital that they choose not to risk on
dicier propositions.

Those financial instruments are paying very low interest rates right now;
below the rate of inflation even. But they are still considered to be the
best bet for safety because payment is guaranteed by the "full faith and
credit of the United States." That means something in an uncertain world.
But it will mean nothing if the Tea Party fanatics don't get a f*@king clue!

Sign me disgusted.


On Wed, Oct 16, 2013 at 10:27 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> ** **
>
> ** **
>
> *From:* extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:
> extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On Behalf Of *John Clark
> *Sent:* Wednesday, October 16, 2013 9:04 AM
> *To:* ExI chat list
> *Subject:* [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
> "asinine"****
>
> ** **
>
> For those living in a fools paradise and think the failure to extend the
> debt ceiling is no big deal this is what Warren Buffett, a man who knows a
> thing or two about money, has to say on the subject:  ?   John K Clark****
>
> ** **
>
>
> John everyone, even the Tea Party, agrees default is bad.  The argument is
> really about who is doing it and why we keep hitting the debt limit with
> mind-numbing regularity, as well as how to stop hitting it it and what to
> do if the lenders stop lending, which is looking like a more distinct
> possibility very day.****
>
> spike****
>
> ****
>
> ** **
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 17:29:25 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 13:29:25 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <020701ceca8e$01aee910$050cbb30$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
 <020701ceca8e$01aee910$050cbb30$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv1nGN6jSz-K2UQM87pYZBzS0pnb3rwM36Re2RdZkB=iXA@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 16, 2013 at 12:37 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

 >?John everyone, even the Tea Party, agrees default is bad.
>
No spike they don't, tea party members have been quoted as saying default
will calm the markets.

> I was wrong on an earlier prediction.  I thought they would work until
> midnight tonight before announcing congress has reached a deal.
>
It's not over yet. The House hasn't voted yet and the House is the home of
the dumbest of the dumb. In that body I believe you could find a one to one
relationship between those representatives who think paying its bills on
time is not a important thing for the Government of the United States to do
and those who think the universe was created in 6 days less than 6 thousand
years ago.

> It could be the Mr. Obama was correct when he said that raising the debt
> limit does not increase debt.  In that case we never hit that debt limit
> again and the whole problem goes away. I jest of course. They will borrow
> it all, hit the new temporary funding limit on 15 January,
>
If a congressman feels that the debt limit shouldn't go higher on January
15 then they should vote to spent less money RIGHT NOW, don't wait till
1159PM on January 14 and say you're not going to pay for the new stuff YOU
ALREADY BOUGHT!!

> have another phony partial shutdown (or slimdown as they are calling it)
>
As Fox is calling it you mean, the only organization that rivals the House
for stupidity.

  John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Wed Oct 16 17:40:26 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 10:40:26 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAPGs0J_oJanEbfc0E_ivYcxCswk1zco=Lz5vrEYyqfc9pSjvew@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <02a401ceca96$cd3cc4a0$67b64de0$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of Michael LaTorra
Subject: Re: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
"asinine"

 

>.The way to deal with the debt is to reduce it over time, through a
combination of decreased spending and increased taxes.

 

How much time?  The current debate is nowhere near reducing debt, not really
even in holding debt increase to zero, for even that is a far off goal by
everyone's estimation.  If we say we want to reduce the rate at which debt
increases over time, how much time?  If the debt goes too high, then as soon
as interest rates go up, we will not even be able to service the interest on
what has already been borrowed.  And this is the outfit which is clamoring
to borrow more and faster?

 

 

>.Seriously, the Tea Party is the problem here.

 

So what happens if we elect a bunch more of them next fall?

 

>. For them, taxes must only move in one direction: toward zero.

 

No.  The TEA in Tea party is for Taxed Enough Already.  The Tea Party goal
is to keep taxes at their current rate and decrease government spending to
match what the government takes in.  Is this really so insane?

 

>. The Tea Party is intransigent and, frankly, not too bright.

 

That's what we are told.  I can't see the overwhelming stupidity is keeping
taxes where they are now and cutting spending to where the taxes are now.

 

>. Their rigidity combined with their stupidity just could be the thing that
sinks their ship...and ours.

 

Alternately we could continue to overspend and sink their ship and ours.

 

>.And by ours, I don't mean only the American ship of state, or the nation.
I mean the global economy.

 

The global economy depends on the US government's overspending?  Indeed?

 

 

>. The dollar is the international reserve currency.

 

Why is that?  Should the international reserve currency be issued by a
government which has demonstrated that it cannot live with its own means?  

 

>. US government bonds and other Treasury securities are the investment of
choice for sovereign wealth funds and individual investors of means who seek
to preserve the portion of their capital that they choose not to risk on
dicier propositions.

 

I agree that it is, but I utterly fail to understand why it is.  Why are
other propositions dicier than the securities of a government which has been
spending way beyond its means for a long time, and defines as idiocy the act
of pointing out the obvious?

 

 

>.Those financial instruments are paying very low interest rates right now;
below the rate of inflation even.

 

Why do people keep investing in something in which the risk is rising and
the payoff is falling?

 

 

>. But they are still considered to be the best bet for safety because
payment is guaranteed by the "full faith and credit of the United States."
That means something in an uncertain world.

 

Why is the rest of the uncertain world uncertain?  I am certain: persistent
overspending and flat out admitting that we are borrowing money to pay debts
is as uncertain as any investment I can think of.

 

>. But it will mean nothing if the Tea Party fanatics don't get a f*@king
clue!

 

Indeed?  The world invests in the full faith and credit of a nation which
cannot pay its debts without borrowing massive piles of money from outside
its borders and incurring still more debt?  In what sense is that paying its
debts?  The world invests in a nations whose president comments that raising
the debt limit does not increase our debt?  How does that work?  Why do not
we rely instead on the full faith and credit of China?  They seem to have
plenty of money to lend the US, so we can keep buying their manufactured
goods.  Why don't we buy their securities?

 

Sometimes I get the feeling the world thinks that if the USA gets in trouble
it can nuke its way out of it.  We cannot nuke our way out of debt.  We have
maxed out the credit cards, just as we are clamoring for a waaay deeper line
of credit.  Now we must tighten the belt.  How crazy is that?

 

spike

 

 

 

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From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 18:53:07 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 11:53:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <013601ceca85$e00afa40$a020eec0$@att.net>
References: <mailman.3.1381924801.28512.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <93F7CEE9-D437-4D89-9C64-459AA4A422F4@me.com>
 <013601ceca85$e00afa40$a020eec0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQk0oNLToy4i=bEKn5jbsuy_HNZTSh9aowwOw2kW3LhfQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Oct 16, 2013 8:54 AM, "spike" <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> The irony is that congressional proponents of ObamaCare want to make sure
congress is exempt from it.  Congressional opponents of ObamaCare are
arguing that congress should be subject to the rules they impose on the
proletariat.

Did the House actually pass a budget bill, this year, including that
Congress would be under the same insurance rules as the general public, and
the Senate vetoed it?  If so, do you have a source for this?  (My
impression is, advocacy aside they have not actually passed a bill w/those
terms for the Senate to veto - at least, not in the current showdown.
Insofar as Congress was exempt in the first place: they already have
insurance that meets the minimums, and the point of the ACA is to make sure
everyone does; those that do, there's little to no direct affect on,
secondary effects from others getting insurance aside.)

> The only person in government who has read the whole thing is Ted Cruz

Now now.  Its authors read it, and they are "in government" even if they
were not elected by the general American public.
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From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 19:35:20 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 12:35:20 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eput this crazy system out of our misery: was RE:
	Euthanasia
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgnxDm7oOYyf9kMg5DTsO8zSg+Ju0u6-E+sMXV1q9LBOg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CALAdGNQM=3xaOMHFrLXLcDH2C1eC4ZqhHWxmUze_siOLD0G97g@mail.gmail.com>

On Oct 15, 2013 2:47 AM, "BillK" <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> We now know that the NSA is collecting email address books and phone
> contact lists, so if Spike is incriminating himself, then all his
> contacts are obviously suspicious characters as well. (Hastily looks
> over shoulder).
>
> Given the six degrees of separation theory,
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_degrees_of_separation>
> it appears that the NSA now thinks that everyone in the world is a
> possible suspect.
>
> So, for security, the ideal solution is to jail or drone everybody
> except the NSA.

Except?  Even the NSA can disagree with itself.
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From rahmans at me.com  Wed Oct 16 20:45:45 2013
From: rahmans at me.com (Omar Rahman)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 22:45:45 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <mailman.3.1381946108.28790.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.3.1381946108.28790.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <1C7AE90A-4EA5-42E5-8DD2-1ADE696686F2@me.com>

> 
> Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 08:39:16 -0700
> From: "spike" <spike66 at att.net>
> To: "'ExI chat list'" <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Subject: Re: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie
> 	Apocalypse!)
> Message-ID: <013601ceca85$e00afa40$a020eec0$@att.net>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
> 
> 
*snip*
*snip*
*Snip of almost everything*

> 
> Omar, what this is really all about is far more than health care.  The
> ObamaCare law as written gives the federal government powers that appear to
> be outside the rigid bounds of the constitution.  Some are comfortable with
> that, but I am not.  They should have gotten an open-ended constitutional
> amendment first, such as our 16th amendment, which created the IRS.
> spike

Thanks Spike for the (snipped) information. I stand corrected on a few (snipped) matters.

What you said at the the end here is most interesting to me. We are reaching a point where the US might need an amendment or two to get things squared away.

The Laundry List: (In no particular order and most certainly not complete.)

1. Campaign Finance Reform

2. Defining Personhood (of special interest to us here as many might wish to become something well outside the 'working' definition) (there are a who raft of issues tied to this)

3. Normalising International Relations (abandoning the doctrine of American exceptionalism...which is to me just a thin veneer on American Imperialism)

4. Reversing Citizen's United (Does the exchange of trust tokens (ie. money) really equal speech? And are corporations really people? See issue 2.)

5. The Second amendment itself needs to be clarified/interpreted or something. (As we enter the age of desktop manufacturing.....are we allowed to have our ray guns if we build them ourselves?)

6. _______________________________ (anyone care to add to the list? add something and make a new space for the next person)


The way I look at things I see Corporations and National Governments as mostly analog versions of AI. Reforming and managing these systems are probably going to be basic survival skills for post-singularity entities of sufficient complexity.

International relations are also most interesting when view through the prism of potential post-singularity evolutionary branching of humanity. What are we do when we meet Spike vers. 7546.3.6.8? Will we recognise it as human? Will Spike vers. 7546.3.6.8 recognise Spike vers. 231.7.4 as human?

In an earlier post I postulated that Libertarianism had had it's chance in the savannahs of our deep past. And as the man said:

No Man Is An Island

No man is an island,
Entire of itself,
Every man is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thy friend's
Or of thine own were:
Any man's death diminishes me,
Because I am involved in mankind,
And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; 
It tolls for thee. 

John Donne

However, what if we do reach the point where someone could bootstrap themself up into some sort of rig soaking up the sun in an asteroid belt? Perhaps then Libertarian principles would apply. 


Regards,

Omar Rahman

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From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 20:51:49 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 13:51:49 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <02a401ceca96$cd3cc4a0$67b64de0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <CALAdGNROFnyXQ0QHYxa2s0E=vmPUu3KU59gmtQ61Cx90o339Mw@mail.gmail.com>

On Oct 16, 2013 10:55 AM, "spike" <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> >?Seriously, the Tea Party is the problem here?
>
> So what happens if we elect a bunch more of them next fall?

I have to wonder: of the US citizens on this list, how many voted for a Tea
Party candidate last year, and how many are now represented by one.  I have
the strong impression that the answer to the latter is "zero" - meaning
that "we" didn't elect them.

I, for one, am represented by Anna Eshoo, a Democrat and very much not Tea
Party.  I, personally, have no direct ability to vote the Tea Party out.

> The TEA in Tea party is for Taxed Enough Already.  The Tea Party goal is
to keep taxes at their current rate and decrease government spending to
match what the government takes in.  Is this really so insane?

It might be sane if that was actually the likely effect of the legislation
they back.  Such is mostly not the case.  Tax breaks just for the rich and
substantial energy spent on disagreeing with Obama for the sake of
disagreeing with Obama are two of the most notable priorities they have
expressed in fact.  They don't actually want to lower your tax rate, but
just their own, even though they claim otherwise.

> >? The dollar is the international reserve currency?
>
> Why is that?  Should the international reserve currency be issued by a
government which has demonstrated that it cannot live with its own means?

Logic has far less to do with this than history.  It is, and it would take
a lot more work than has been done to replace it entirely with another
currency.  Whether or not another would be better is almost beside the
point...although, every specific viable alternative has its own problem.

Rather than think about it in the abstract, to truly answer your question
you must specifically compare the dollar vs. the euro, vs. the yuan, and so
on for each specific currency you'd propose to replace it.  Run out of
satisfactory options and you have completely answered "Why?": because,
damaged as it is, it's better than the existing alternatives, and
implementing a superior one in practice is far harder than you think,
mainly because gaining the world's trust is a very difficult and laborious
proposition.  See how little success Bitcoin has had so far, and that's far
and away the most widely accepted non-government-backed currency.

> I agree that it is, but I utterly fail to understand why it is.  Why are
other propositions dicier than the securities of a government which has
been spending way beyond its means for a long time, and defines as idiocy
the act of pointing out the obvious?

Because it does pay its debts, in the end, no matter how close to default
it has danced so far.  Just like it ultimately did this time, and will do
so again next time, with greater likelihood than the existing alternatives.

> Sometimes I get the feeling the world thinks that if the USA gets in
trouble it can nuke its way out of it.  We cannot nuke our way out of debt.

Technically we can.  We'd really rather not, but it is physically possible:
just kill everyone to whom a certain debt is owed, their inheritors, their
inheritors' inheritors, and so on until no one remains to claim the debt
(or more likely, the survivors relinquish all claim to the debt).  Some
people sincerely believe this is our backup plan, with not that many
alternatives between the status quo and resorting to that.
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From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Oct 16 20:55:40 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 13:55:40 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Tap tap..Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <1C7AE90A-4EA5-42E5-8DD2-1ADE696686F2@me.com>
References: <mailman.3.1381946108.28790.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <1C7AE90A-4EA5-42E5-8DD2-1ADE696686F2@me.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ19uCtKRNM+51WOOdhDyoJdymw+pSxi3bvGZdgpHA2JA@mail.gmail.com>

On Oct 16, 2013 1:47 PM, "Omar Rahman" <rahmans at me.com> wrote:
> However, what if we do reach the point where someone could bootstrap
themself up into some sort of rig soaking up the sun in an asteroid belt?
Perhaps then Libertarian principles would apply.

American laws as they are today probably wouldn't.  You'd be talking about
a new government with a new constitution to cover a civilization in the
asteroid belt.
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From anders at aleph.se  Wed Oct 16 21:20:46 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 22:20:46 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
 "asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <525F032E.70409@aleph.se>


> "I'm worried about damage to an asset that we've carefully cultivated 
> for 237 years [...] it would be asinine for the U.S. to risk its 
> hard-won reputation for paying its bills on time.[...]

I had a discussion this week with Bj?rn Lomborg about the rationality of 
geoengineering, and I mentioned the argument that stopping aerosol 
injection causes a very rapid move to the temperatures one would have 
had without any intervention. That would obviously be very bad. However, 
Bj?rn disagreed, since (1) it would be irrational to stop in this case, 
and (2) this kind of geoengineering is relatively cheap and in the case 
of some major consortium failing one could easily imagine a billionaire 
or single nation sponsoring extra efforts, either altruistically or just 
because the damage to their own interests. Point taken.

Now, in the light of the brinkmanship in the US we might see another 
twist on the problem. Geoengineering is usually framed as a game between 
national powers, and would run according to the rationality of 
game-theory on that level. But the US demonstrates that games on lower 
levels can produce irrational outcomes on higher levels: the US 
brinkmanship was (perhaps) rational for individual politicians and 
politicial coalitions, but likely made the US as an agent nearly act 
irrationally. Yes, it is asinine for the US to risk its reputation, but 
it might not be asinine for some politicians to risk it.

It is not hard to imagine other versions of this situation, where 
rational low-level games produce irrational higher-level actions. In a 
way, this might just be a formalisation of a lot of history and politics 
- a contributing explanation for the "Cock-up Theory of History" ( 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor 
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor> ).

Low-level brinkmanship upsetting bigger global collective goods doesn't 
sound far-fetched, and might actually be a serious Achilles heel of 
geoengineering. I have some colleauges who plan to model it in more 
detail. In the meantime I hope that if we find ourselves in such a mess 
some Warren Buffett might unilaterally solve the problem (in exchange 
for all weather reports ending with a thank you note). Of course, the 
unilateral possibility of geoengineering leads to other fun problems ( 
http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf )...

(Incidentally, another senior researcher mentioned that we ought to 
develop geoengineering techniques regardless, as a just in case fix for 
methane burps - here a modest aerosol injection gets us past the worst, 
and cessation is not a major issue once past the peak.)

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From anders at aleph.se  Wed Oct 16 22:50:22 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 23:50:22 +0100
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armh9=+PjG4Ush9hMMD2u-qvRZ+BhRnFwOSJdD4N=vVTsHA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <525F182E.8060601@aleph.se>

On 14/10/2013 13:19, BillK wrote:
> On Mon, Oct 14, 2013 at 12:19 PM, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
>> The effect is fairly weak. While the image of Idiocracy is vivid, when you
>> actually sit down and simulate genetic equilibria of numerous small
>> IQ-related genes you will find that the anti-intelligence selection effect
>> is not doing much.
>
> Hmmnnn. Not simulations, but real world studies have found a correlation.

Yes, but so what? I am not denying that there might be a lower fertility 
at the high end of the IQ spectrum (although the data is somewhat tricky 
- cohort effects, delayed childbearing, smaller samples etc.) However, 
this does not lead to dysgenic pressure.

See http://www.jstor.org/stable/2781579 or Julian Simon's excellent 
simpler explanation: 
http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Articles/PRESTON3.txt
The low-IQ people have low fertility, so the population tends to be 
"pushed away" from too low IQs even if there is some push away from high 
IQs too.


I did a small simulation myself (since I could not find my old 
simulation): assume 100 alleles that can be in two states, each one in 
the "one" state adding a fixed N(0,1) normally distributed number of IQ 
points to all individuals who have it (this is pretty close to Plomin's 
current result for common IQ-related alleles). Some boost IQ, some 
decrease it. Assume a fitness that is a piecevise linear function: 0 for 
IQ 0, 0.1 for IQ 50 (probably a major overestimate), rising to 1 for IQ 
80, 1 at IQ 110, going down to 0.5 for IQ 150 and 0 at IQ 400 (these 
numbers were chosen by guesswork during a non-connected train-ride, but 
I think they are not too crazy compared to the Preston and Campbell 
data). Select parents with a probability proportional to their fitness, 
have them generate offspring using cross-over of their respective genes.

This model produces the expected behavior: the population does maintain 
an equilibrium pretty far away from the lower limit, staying stable 
because of the upper limit. If I remove the high-IQ fitness penalty the 
population drifts upwards very slowly, with diminishing speed as more 
alleles get fixed. Same thing (by symmetry) for removing the low IQ 
limit. In practice, we can likely rely on our real-world IQ distribution 
having a shape roughly in line with what the fitness constraints have 
been during most of the past - and the number of generations it takes to 
affect the frequency of an allele contributing 1 IQ point is pretty 
large, given that its fitness effects gets mixed up with 99 others.

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From spike66 at att.net  Thu Oct 17 05:01:51 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 22:01:51 -0700
Subject: [ExI] ok, time for some fun
Message-ID: <003901cecaf5$fe7853e0$fb68fba0$@att.net>

After all that heavy stuff that went on this last couple weeks, we are
allowed to have some fun.  I love jokes, the bigger the better.  Elaborate
setups that they clearly had to work for, such as this:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlOxlSOr3_M

 

I nearly wet my diapers.

 

I did wonder, suppose I was in that coffee house.  I would likely figure out
this was a really well-done gag, for at this point I am utterly unable to
suspend disbelief.  I struggled with disbelief far too long to be able to
suspend it now.  The guy up the wall is really an impressive illusion.  The
rolling table bit is just way too cool.  {8^D

 

spike

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From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Oct 17 05:23:25 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 22:23:25 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Big nanotech: towards post-industrial manufacturing
In-Reply-To: <20131015142348.GJ10405@leitl.org>
References: <20131015142348.GJ10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQMhKWcqautC=xnqU0tCs7YvWNOFYS+KM15nzKpinu0AA@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Oct 15, 2013 at 7:23 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

>
>
> http://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/14/big-nanotech-post-industrial-manufacturing-apm
>


> I'll explore some of these questions in later posts on this blog.
>
> ? Eric Drexler
>

Cool.  He's getting regular promotion from a mainstream press outlet.  I
wonder if Natasha might be able to get similar from, say, the LA Times?
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From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu  Thu Oct 17 01:06:45 2013
From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 21:06:45 -0400
Subject: [ExI] [Exl] Tap tap.. Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie
	Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <mailman.3.1381924801.28512.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.3.1381924801.28512.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <BDC17DB9-C34C-4A79-BC92-D483B185DA75@alumni.virginia.edu>

Spike wrote:
   exempts congress from
> the healthcare law that they are imposing on the rest of us.  So we see the
> Senate willing to send the government into default in order to impose the
> healthcare law on the citizens and simultaneously exempt themselves from
> that law.

I keep hearing this on TV, so I'm not just critiquing Spike. Characterizing "the exemption" this way is misleading. This exemption you refer to is the one that allows anyone with health insurance provided through their employer to be exempt from having to buy (what would be additional) insurance. You know, the idea is that everyone needs to be insured--no one is really exempt. Full time Federal employees including Congressional staff, just like Google and other organizational employees, have insurance provided through their employer. Since they thus have insurance, of course the mandate that they buy insurance doesn't apply. If you are suggesting Federal employees who happen to work on Capital Hill should be singled out and not be allowed to get insurance through their employer, I disagree. And where do you draw the line? Would congressional staffers who work in their home districts not be able to get insurance through their employer? What about Executive Branch employees? How about DOD employees? Many would leave the public sector if their benefits were comprised as such not because the govt healthcare they'd have to buy would be bad, but because they could get a job in the private sector that provided this benefit. 
-Henry
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From spike66 at att.net  Thu Oct 17 05:32:36 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 22:32:36 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Big nanotech: towards post-industrial manufacturing
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQMhKWcqautC=xnqU0tCs7YvWNOFYS+KM15nzKpinu0AA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20131015142348.GJ10405@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQMhKWcqautC=xnqU0tCs7YvWNOFYS+KM15nzKpinu0AA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <007401cecafa$4a319040$de94b0c0$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Subject: Re: [ExI] Big nanotech: towards post-industrial manufacturing

 

>.On Tue, Oct 15, 2013 at 7:23 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:


http://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/14/big-nanotech-post
-industrial-manufacturing-apm

 

>.Cool.  He's getting regular promotion from a mainstream press outlet.  I
wonder if Natasha might be able to get similar from, say, the LA Times?

 

 

Regarding extropian notions getting mainstream press, Ray Kurzweil got a lot
of exposure from an unlikely source: Glenn Beck.  Of course Beck's show is a
parody, but it is well done: he plays a far rightwing nut job so well he
fools plenty of people in his audience into thinking it is the real thing,
the same crowd that thinks championship rassling is real.  In this segment
from last January, he freaks out over the coming Singularity, and tells what
a horror it is.

 

http://www.glennbeck.com/2013/01/18/glenn-the-government-cannot-stop-the-exp
onential-growth-of-technology/

 

spike

 

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From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Oct 17 05:55:38 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 22:55:38 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Big nanotech: towards post-industrial manufacturing
In-Reply-To: <007401cecafa$4a319040$de94b0c0$@att.net>
References: <20131015142348.GJ10405@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNQMhKWcqautC=xnqU0tCs7YvWNOFYS+KM15nzKpinu0AA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007401cecafa$4a319040$de94b0c0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTOG4tH8hDANTe+F=izr2B_9HNLMWv23yLYKyu+4actsA@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 16, 2013 at 10:32 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> *>?* *On Behalf Of *Adrian Tymes
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Big nanotech: towards post-industrial manufacturing**
> **
>
> ** **
>
> >?On Tue, Oct 15, 2013 at 7:23 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:***
> *
>
>
>
> http://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/14/big-nanotech-post-industrial-manufacturing-apm
> ****
>
>  ****
>
> >?Cool.  He's getting regular promotion from a mainstream press outlet.
> I wonder if Natasha might be able to get similar from, say, the LA Times?*
> ***
>
> ** **
>
> Regarding extropian notions getting mainstream press, Ray Kurzweil got a
> lot of exposure from an unlikely source: Glenn Beck.
>

That was a one-time thing.  This blog, being repeated publication for many
weeks - possibly months or more - is a higher caliber of exposure.
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From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Oct 17 06:03:43 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 17 Oct 2013 08:03:43 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
 "asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAPGs0J_oJanEbfc0E_ivYcxCswk1zco=Lz5vrEYyqfc9pSjvew@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
 <CAPGs0J_oJanEbfc0E_ivYcxCswk1zco=Lz5vrEYyqfc9pSjvew@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131017060343.GQ10405@leitl.org>

On Wed, Oct 16, 2013 at 11:12:36AM -0600, Michael LaTorra wrote:

> The way to deal with the debt is to reduce it over time, through a
> combination of decreased spending and increased taxes, not by default or

Many countries all over the world, but especially the US, are
addicted to growth by borrowing from the future. Nobody likes
the word austerity, but this is exactly what living within
your means means. There is no reasoning with drug addicts.

This is mirrored by overshoot, aka ecological debt. You
can live over the ecosystem carrying capacity, for a while,
but you then must pay that debt, and interest on it, too
(degradation of carrying capacity through overshoot).
The currency is flesh and bone.

> repudiation. The Tea Party is concerned about the debt like an abortionist
> is concerned about a fetus. Don't let those people anywhere near my baby!

I'm afraid it's already dead, Jim.
 
> Seriously, the Tea Party is the problem here. Many months ago, Boehner and

The Tea Party is a symptom. We have our own Tea Party over here, which went
from zero to (almost) hero at 4.9%. I predict that anti-EU parties
will be in the EU parliament at the next vote. 

> Obama reached an agreement for dealing with the debt that included just
> what I said above: decreased spending and increased taxes over the long

Too little, too late. 

> term. The Tea Party faction (which is the tail that wags the Republican dog
> these days) would have none of it. For them, taxes must only move in one
> direction: toward zero. Their mindless absolutism scuttled what could have
> been the solution. The Tea Party is intransigent and, frankly, not too
> bright. Their rigidity combined with their stupidity just could be the
> thing that sinks their ship...and ours.

They're just the trigger, the actual reason is cumulated bill for behavior
of decades past.
 
> And by ours, I don't mean only the American ship of state, or the nation. I
> mean the global economy. If America gets the flu, the rest of the world

The global economy is very, very sick. Read between the lines on
China's economy, for instance.  

> gets cancer. The dollar is the international reserve currency. US

The petrodollar status (backed by oil, which is backed by military and
economic warfare) has been slipping gradually. What's buoying it up
is that all that scared money has nowhere else to go. You might notice
that e.g. CFPB has started encouraging the banks to limit international money
transfers. Hold onto your Bitcoins, these might jump into orbit yet.

> government bonds and other Treasury securities are the investment of choice
> for sovereign wealth funds and individual investors of means who seek to
> preserve the portion of their capital that they choose not to risk on
> dicier propositions.
> 
> Those financial instruments are paying very low interest rates right now;
> below the rate of inflation even. But they are still considered to be the
> best bet for safety because payment is guaranteed by the "full faith and
> credit of the United States." That means something in an uncertain world.

It's a self-supporting belief system. You can pay off your debt through
the printing press with your creditors paying the bill for only so long.

> But it will mean nothing if the Tea Party fanatics don't get a f*@king clue!
> 
> Sign me disgusted.

Very.


From spike66 at att.net  Thu Oct 17 06:12:36 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 23:12:36 -0700
Subject: [ExI] [Exl] Tap tap.. Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie
	Apocalypse!)
In-Reply-To: <BDC17DB9-C34C-4A79-BC92-D483B185DA75@alumni.virginia.edu>
References: <mailman.3.1381924801.28512.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <BDC17DB9-C34C-4A79-BC92-D483B185DA75@alumni.virginia.edu>
Message-ID: <00dc01cecaff$e0b06190$a21124b0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Henry Rivera
Sent: Wednesday, October 16, 2013 6:07 PM
To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
Subject: Re: [ExI] [Exl] Tap tap.. Hello? Is this thing on? (Or Zombie Apocalypse!)

 

Spike wrote:

>>?   exempts congress from the healthcare law that they are imposing on the rest of us.  So we see the
Senate willing to send the government into default in order to impose the
healthcare law on the citizens and simultaneously exempt themselves from
that law.

 

>? Full time Federal employees including Congressional staff, just like Google and other organizational employees, have insurance provided through their employer. Since they thus have insurance, of course the mandate that they buy insurance doesn't apply?-Henry

 

Henry I see your point, and have a suggestion.  The Federal government should specifically exempt those people who actually vote on legislation from getting employer-provided health coverage.  It isn?t that many people, 535, and would likely not deter a congressman or senator from running for office.  What it would do is make them go into those exchanges and see for themselves what it is like.

 

To extend a previous discussion on this topic and make a few predictions, I try to imagine what all this must look like from the point of view of a health insurance company.  They must see what I mentioned before as the first wave after the exchanges opened on 1 October: the profitable track team fleeing and the dead loss zombie horde staggering inbound.  (Or would that be undead loss?)  An insurance company would be swamped with applications from people who are not insurable, and the big profit customers are nowhere to be found: they will opt out for at least two years, if not decades, until they too join the zombies.

 

So an insurance company would like to just lie low for a while and not issue many new policies, if any at all.  So what are the ways they could make this happen, while making it appear that they are selling policies?  I had some ideas.

 

Insurance companies, competitors, could temporarily work together and trade customers.  They could offer each other old-ish customers who have never made a claim in the past 5 years, then just trade them among themselves, while the zombie applications pile high.  If an insurance company formerly sold 10k policies per month, they could create the illusion of maintaining that number, while selling no new policies.  The law says they cannot turn people away because of pre-existing conditions, but it doesn?t say they cannot just fail to sell the policy because the agents are busy.  The most profitable insurance companies in the next couple years may be those who figure out how to escape from the zombies, and possibly those companies who manage to chase down and seduce the profitable track team.  But my bet is on escaping the zombies.

 

Regarding how they would deal with a new customer when they cannot base their coverage on pre-existing conditions, I had a thought on that.  I don?t know exactly how they will do it, but I have every reason to think that they will somehow figure out how to bribe or hack or steal or by some other mysterious means, they will get access to hospital and medical records.  They will figure out somehow or by some mysterious means who has pre-existing conditions, and they will figure out some means of fleeing.  

 

To get into Healthcare.gov, one is required to supply a social security number.  If an application is made online, the insurance company could just claim someone else used that social security number and therefore the application has been temporarily delayed while identity verification is being performed.  They will use the same definition of ?temporarily? as HealthCare.gov, which means it could take years to confirm identity.  They can still argue they didn?t turn the customer away because of pre-existing condition, on the basis that they haven?t actually turned the customer away.  The ACA doesn?t say how quickly an insurance company must act on an application.  The insurance company will not volunteer the information that they were the someone else who used that social security number.

 

If the customer resorts to paper applications, this too can be easily tripped in the following way.  The insurance company fails to act long enough, the customer sends in a duplicate application.  The company accepts both applications, which are given two distinct policy numbers, payments begin on only one of them.  Customer turns out to be a zombie, sends huge medical bills to insurance company.  Insurance company switches policy numbers and claims payment was never made on the policy in question, refuses to pay.

 

Another variation on the theme: customer buys new policy, pays, company holds check.  A week later, medical bills start to show up.  Company shreds check, claims payment was never made, policy cancelled.

 

Customer shows up in person, fills out enormous application by hand.  Application lost.  No evidence can be found that the application ever existed.

 

I am not even in the biz, and I consider myself a moral person, but all these ideas for escaping the zombies seem pretty obvious to me.  Therefore the real insurance people who really understand risk models, will have thought of a thousand of them by now.  Insurance companies don?t like losing money any more than you and I would.  They will not insure zombies.  They don?t stay in business by writing unprofitable policies.  My guess is they will not.  My guess is they will make piles of money with the new law, more than before, way more.

 

spike 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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From eugen at leitl.org  Thu Oct 17 13:19:05 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Thu, 17 Oct 2013 15:19:05 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Edward Snowden: saving us from the United Stasi of America
Message-ID: <20131017131905.GO10405@leitl.org>


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jun/10/edward-snowden-united-stasi-america

Edward Snowden: saving us from the United Stasi of America

Snowden's whistleblowing gives us a chance to roll back what is tantamount to
an 'executive coup' against the US constitution

Daniel Ellsberg

theguardian.com, Monday 10 June 2013 11.30 BST

Link to video: NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden: 'I don't want to live in a
society that does these sort of things'

In my estimation, there has not been in American history a more important
leak than Edward Snowden's release of NSA material ? and that definitely
includes the Pentagon Papers 40 years ago. Snowden's whistleblowing gives us
the possibility to roll back a key part of what has amounted to an "executive
coup" against the US constitution.

Since 9/11, there has been, at first secretly but increasingly openly, a
revocation of the bill of rights for which this country fought over 200 years
ago. In particular, the fourth and fifth amendments of the US constitution,
which safeguard citizens from unwarranted intrusion by the government into
their private lives, have been virtually suspended.

The government claims it has a court warrant under Fisa ? but that
unconstitutionally sweeping warrant is from a secret court, shielded from
effective oversight, almost totally deferential to executive requests. As
Russell Tice, a former National Security Agency analyst, put it: "It is a
kangaroo court with a rubber stamp."

For the president then to say that there is judicial oversight is nonsense ?
as is the alleged oversight function of the intelligence committees in
Congress. Not for the first time ? as with issues of torture, kidnapping,
detention, assassination by drones and death squads ?they have shown
themselves to be thoroughly co-opted by the agencies they supposedly monitor.
They are also black holes for information that the public needs to know.

The fact that congressional leaders were "briefed" on this and went along
with it, without any open debate, hearings, staff analysis, or any real
chance for effective dissent, only shows how broken the system of checks and
balances is in this country.

Obviously, the United States is not now a police state. But given the extent
of this invasion of people's privacy, we do have the full electronic and
legislative infrastructure of such a state. If, for instance, there was now a
war that led to a large-scale anti-war movement ? like the one we had against
the war in Vietnam ? or, more likely, if we suffered one more attack on the
scale of 9/11, I fear for our democracy. These powers are extremely
dangerous.

There are legitimate reasons for secrecy, and specifically for secrecy about
communications intelligence. That's why Bradley Mannning and I ? both of whom
had access to such intelligence with clearances higher than top-secret ?
chose not to disclose any information with that classification. And it is why
Edward Snowden has committed himself to withhold publication of most of what
he might have revealed.

But what is not legitimate is to use a secrecy system to hide programs that
are blatantly unconstitutional in their breadth and potential abuse. Neither
the president nor Congress as a whole may by themselves revoke the fourth
amendment ? and that's why what Snowden has revealed so far was secret from
the American people.

In 1975, Senator Frank Church spoke of the National Security Agency in these
terms:

"I know the capacity that is there to make tyranny total in America, and we
must see to it that this agency and all agencies that possess this technology
operate within the law and under proper supervision, so that we never cross
over that abyss. That is the abyss from which there is no return."

The dangerous prospect of which he warned was that America's intelligence
gathering capability ? which is today beyond any comparison with what existed
in his pre-digital era ? "at any time could be turned around on the American
people and no American would have any privacy left."

That has now happened. That is what Snowden has exposed, with official,
secret documents. The NSA, FBI and CIA have, with the new digital technology,
surveillance powers over our own citizens that the Stasi ? the secret police
in the former "democratic republic" of East Germany ? could scarcely have
dreamed of. Snowden reveals that the so-called intelligence community has
become the United Stasi of America.

So we have fallen into Senator Church's abyss. The questions now are whether
he was right or wrong that there is no return from it, and whether that means
that effective democracy will become impossible. A week ago, I would have
found it hard to argue with pessimistic answers to those conclusions.

But with Edward Snowden having put his life on the line to get this
information out, quite possibly inspiring others with similar knowledge,
conscience and patriotism to show comparable civil courage ? in the public,
in Congress, in the executive branch itself ? I see the unexpected
possibility of a way up and out of the abyss.

Pressure by an informed public on Congress to form a select committee to
investigate the revelations by Snowden and, I hope, others to come might lead
us to bring NSA and the rest of the intelligence community under real
supervision and restraint and restore the protections of the bill of rights.

Snowden did what he did because he recognised the NSA's surveillance programs
for what they are: dangerous, unconstitutional activity. This wholesale
invasion of Americans' and foreign citizens' privacy does not contribute to
our security; it puts in danger the very liberties we're trying to protect.

? Editor's note: this article was revised and updated at the author's behest,
at 7.45am ET on 10 June


From spike66 at att.net  Thu Oct 17 14:54:20 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 17 Oct 2013 07:54:20 -0700
Subject: [ExI] saving us from the United Stasi of America
Message-ID: <01af01cecb48$c34584c0$49d08e40$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: tt-bounces at postbiota.org [mailto:tt-bounces at postbiota.org] On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl
Sent: Thursday, October 17, 2013 6:19 AM
To: tt at postbiota.org; ExI chat list; doctrinezero at zerostate.is; Liberation Technologies
Subject: [tt] Edward Sneaudin: saving us from the United Stasi of America



Thanks Gene.

If Edward had been French, his name might have been spelled Sneaudin.  Just to make it slightly challenging for the snoops, let us assume it.

This article fails to mention what I think is an important point.  USians have these 4th and 5th amendment rights, but none of these deal with the legality of a foreign power gathering intelligence on American citizens.  The US is free to observe Germans under our constitution, and I assume Germany is free to observe Americans.  Then I see nothing preventing the American and German government from watching each other's people (and everyone else for that matter), perhaps running some kind of data reduction software, then swapping results.  Both governments then cleanly sidestep those bothersome legal restrictions, depending on how one defines the term "cleanly."

spike( Jeaunes)


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jun/10/edward-sneaudin-united-stasi-america


Edward Sneaudin: saving us from the United Stasi of America

Sneaudin's whistleblowing gives us a chance to roll back what is tantamount to an 'executive coup' against the US constitution

Daniel Ellsberg

theguardian.com, Monday 10 June 2013 11.30 BST

Link to video: NSA whistleblower Edward Sneaudin: 'I don't want to live in a society that does these sort of things'

In my estimation, there has not been in American history a more important leak than Edward Sneaudin's release of NSA material ? and that definitely includes the Pentagon Papers 40 years ago. Sneaudin's whistleblowing gives us the possibility to roll back a key part of what has amounted to an "executive coup" against the US constitution.

Since 9/11, there has been, at first secretly but increasingly openly, a revocation of the bill of rights for which this country fought over 200 years ago. In particular, the fourth and fifth amendments of the US constitution, which safeguard citizens from unwarranted intrusion by the government into their private lives, have been virtually suspended.

The government claims it has a court warrant under Fisa ? but that unconstitutionally sweeping warrant is from a secret court, shielded from effective oversight, almost totally deferential to executive requests. As Russell Tice, a former National Security Agency analyst, put it: "It is a kangaroo court with a rubber stamp."

For the president then to say that there is judicial oversight is nonsense ? as is the alleged oversight function of the intelligence committees in Congress. Not for the first time ? as with issues of torture, kidnapping, detention, assassination by drones and death squads ?they have shown themselves to be thoroughly co-opted by the agencies they supposedly monitor.
They are also black holes for information that the public needs to know.

The fact that congressional leaders were "briefed" on this and went along with it, without any open debate, hearings, staff analysis, or any real chance for effective dissent, only shows how broken the system of checks and balances is in this country.

Obviously, the United States is not now a police state. But given the extent of this invasion of people's privacy, we do have the full electronic and legislative infrastructure of such a state. If, for instance, there was now a war that led to a large-scale anti-war movement ? like the one we had against the war in Vietnam ? or, more likely, if we suffered one more attack on the scale of 9/11, I fear for our democracy. These powers are extremely dangerous.

There are legitimate reasons for secrecy, and specifically for secrecy about communications intelligence. That's why Bradley Mannning and I ? both of whom had access to such intelligence with clearances higher than top-secret ? chose not to disclose any information with that classification. And it is why Edward Sneaudin has committed himself to withhold publication of most of what he might have revealed.

But what is not legitimate is to use a secrecy system to hide programs that are blatantly unconstitutional in their breadth and potential abuse. Neither the president nor Congress as a whole may by themselves revoke the fourth amendment ? and that's why what Sneaudin has revealed so far was secret from the American people.

In 1975, Senator Frank Church spoke of the National Security Agency in these
terms:

"I know the capacity that is there to make tyranny total in America, and we must see to it that this agency and all agencies that possess this technology operate within the law and under proper supervision, so that we never cross over that abyss. That is the abyss from which there is no return."

The dangerous prospect of which he warned was that America's intelligence gathering capability ? which is today beyond any comparison with what existed in his pre-digital era ? "at any time could be turned around on the American people and no American would have any privacy left."

That has now happened. That is what Sneaudin has exposed, with official, secret documents. The NSA, FBI and CIA have, with the new digital technology, surveillance powers over our own citizens that the Stasi ? the secret police in the former "democratic republic" of East Germany ? could scarcely have dreamed of. Sneaudin reveals that the so-called intelligence community has become the United Stasi of America.

So we have fallen into Senator Church's abyss. The questions now are whether he was right or wrong that there is no return from it, and whether that means that effective democracy will become impossible. A week ago, I would have found it hard to argue with pessimistic answers to those conclusions.

But with Edward Sneaudin having put his life on the line to get this information out, quite possibly inspiring others with similar knowledge, conscience and patriotism to show comparable civil courage ? in the public, in Congress, in the executive branch itself ? I see the unexpected possibility of a way up and out of the abyss.

Pressure by an informed public on Congress to form a select committee to investigate the revelations by Sneaudin and, I hope, others to come might lead us to bring NSA and the rest of the intelligence community under real supervision and restraint and restore the protections of the bill of rights.

Sneaudin did what he did because he recognised the NSA's surveillance programs for what they are: dangerous, unconstitutional activity. This wholesale invasion of Americans' and foreign citizens' privacy does not contribute to our security; it puts in danger the very liberties we're trying to protect.

? Editor's note: this article was revised and updated at the author's behest, at 7.45am ET on 10 June _______________________________________________
tt mailing list
tt at postbiota.org
http://postbiota.org/mailman/listinfo/tt




From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Oct 17 15:57:50 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 17 Oct 2013 16:57:50 +0100
Subject: [ExI] saving us from the United Stasi of America
In-Reply-To: <01af01cecb48$c34584c0$49d08e40$@att.net>
References: <01af01cecb48$c34584c0$49d08e40$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgdWcmRJm7XQoOBTvy6jF2v=RrDPo2cewNbaD=_JmLfdw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Oct 17, 2013 at 3:54 PM, spike wrote:
> If Edward had been French, his name might have been spelled Sneaudin.  Just to make it slightly challenging for the snoops, let us assume it.
>

Strictly speaking it would probably be more like Neige-repaire   :)


BillK


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Oct 17 18:06:50 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 17 Oct 2013 14:06:50 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <02a401ceca96$cd3cc4a0$67b64de0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
 <CAPGs0J_oJanEbfc0E_ivYcxCswk1zco=Lz5vrEYyqfc9pSjvew@mail.gmail.com>
 <02a401ceca96$cd3cc4a0$67b64de0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3e1AwH2w5d6eKvY6_ZfHu-VXK3DDEHo7VaDO=QVnRJ6g@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 16, 2013 at 1:40 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

 >>  the Tea Party is the problem here
>>
> ** **
>
> > So what happens if we elect a bunch more of them next fall?
>

I think that is unlikely. For one thing there is a limited supply of people
that dumb, for another they're going to find it increasingly difficult to
raise money. Traditionally the Republican party has been the party of
business but not  anymore, the tea party big money backers have found that
they can no longer control the loonies they created. Despite the antics of
the last 16 days  the Republicans achieved NONE of their goals,  zero nada
goose egg, but they did cost the economy 24 billion dollars in direct costs
and probably ten times that in indirect costs. And the meter is still
running, we'll be paying for this for years to come in the form of interest
rates that will be higher than they otherwise would have been, in effect
the party that thinks taxes are too high has just imposed a new  tax on us.
And the Republicans came within 90 minutes of costing the economy many many
TRILLIONS of dollars, and they want to play the same moronic game of
chicken in just 3 months. Billionaires, regardless of how conservative, are
going to think long and hard before they start writing big checks to
dimwits like that again.

****
>
>>  >> The dollar is the international reserve currency?
>>
> ** **
>
> > Why is that?
>

The reason is irrelevant, to deny the fact is to deny reality, and if you
fuck with the international reserve currency welcome to 1929.

 >> Those financial instruments are paying very low interest rates right
>> now; below the rate of inflation even?
>>
>
> > Why do people keep investing in something in which the risk is rising
> and the payoff is falling?
>

Because like it or not the international perception is that US savings
bonds are the safest investment in the world, or at least that was the
perception 16 days ago, not so sure now.

 > Why do people keep investing in something in which the risk is rising
> and the payoff is falling?
>

Gee, and I can't imagine why the risk is rising.

  John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Thu Oct 17 22:57:32 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 17 Oct 2013 15:57:32 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3e1AwH2w5d6eKvY6_ZfHu-VXK3DDEHo7VaDO=QVnRJ6g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
 <CAPGs0J_oJanEbfc0E_ivYcxCswk1zco=Lz5vrEYyqfc9pSjvew@mail.gmail.com>
 <02a401ceca96$cd3cc4a0$67b64de0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3e1AwH2w5d6eKvY6_ZfHu-VXK3DDEHo7VaDO=QVnRJ6g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <037201cecb8c$4428af20$cc7a0d60$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of John Clark



 

 

 >>>.  the Tea Party is the problem here

 >>. So what happens if we elect a bunch more of them next fall?

 

>.I think that is unlikely. For one thing there is a limited supply of
people that dumb.

John what do you make of this?

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/tea-party-science-98488.html?hp=r3

All is not lost for our embarrassed mainstream left wing, for the claim can
be made that there is no evidence that the Tea Party is an extreme wing of
either end of the political spectrum.  Why could not they argue that the Tea
Party is actually the far left?  Then the Yale professor would be able to
more easily explain his results.

I don't see why not: two famous left wing figures pointed out several years
ago where this is headed, Charley Rangel in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2006.
Why not see the Tea Party position as extrapolating on what these guys
realized several years ago?

I still haven't been able to figure out why it is lunacy to point out that
the US is not only pretending to pay off debts with borrowed money, but that
we are admitting we have no way out.  We are saying by yesterday's action
that we are borrowing money to pay for what we already bought, and
simultaneously buying a whole bunch of new stuff, which immediately becomes
a bunch of stuff we already bought.  Remind me please, is it merely stupid
or both stupid and crazy, to point out that this plan is not just stupid, it
is stupid and crazy?

If it is crazy stupid lunacy now, how much crazier and loonier was it 7 to
10 years ago when the left wing rising stars were forcefully delivering the
same message, when the deficit was a quarter what it is now and the debt was
less than a third as much as it is now?  Those guys must have been some
really powerful brand of stupid.  How could they even stay in office?  Could
it be that the Tea Party has little or nothing to do with mainstream left or
right?  That the attitude that we must live within our means does not map
onto the traditional political spectrum in any meaningful way?

Earlier I had an alternative suggestion to repeatedly raising the government
borrowing limit: we sell the gold in Fort Knox.  Every American to whom I
suggested this thought it a terrible idea.  So the obvious question is, if
we are issuing IOUs and the world is pretending these are money, is not that
identical to selling the actual gold?  Are we admitting these IOUs are not
as good as gold, but rather are as good as paper?

John your objection as I recall is that it would cause chaos by tanking the
value of gold.  I don't see why that is such a problem.  In fact it gives me
a great idea.  We sell several tons of gold, but only to those countries
which mint real money.  That dump causes the price of gold to go down.  Then
we buy it back at the lower price using US money.  We end up with their
currency, they end up with ours.  It is like ordinary currency trading, only
with the gold supply in Ft. Knox jacking the price around, we get a discount
for a while.  Cause chaos, and profit from it.

Of course that might create some new problems, but consider this.  We are
being told that the world's economy has become dependent on American
overconsumption, that markets will collapse without that factor, etc.  So we
as a species have painted ourselves into a corner: the world's economies
depend on the US to overspend, while the US depends on the world economies
to lend us the money to do it.

Remind me again please: is this scheme is crazy and stupid?  Or rather is
suggesting that this scheme is crazy and stupid crazy and stupid?

>.Gee, and I can't imagine why the risk is rising. 

>. John K Clark

 

I can, John.  Plenty of us can.

spike

 

 

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From spike66 at att.net  Fri Oct 18 01:25:07 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 17 Oct 2013 18:25:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI] fifth skull found
Message-ID: <002101cecba0$e2a149f0$a7e3ddd0$@att.net>

 

Cool!  A fifth skull:

 

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/10/17/18-million-year-old-skull-shakes-h
umanitys-family-tree/

 

spike

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From andymck35 at gmail.com  Fri Oct 18 07:51:08 2013
From: andymck35 at gmail.com (Andrew Mckee)
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 20:51:08 +1300
Subject: [ExI] saving us from the United Stasi of America
In-Reply-To: <01af01cecb48$c34584c0$49d08e40$@att.net>
References: <01af01cecb48$c34584c0$49d08e40$@att.net>
Message-ID: <op.w4433jnk0wog37@kira>

On Fri, 18 Oct 2013 03:54:20 +1300, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:


> This article fails to mention what I think is an important point.   
> USians have these 4th and 5th amendment rights, but none of these deal  
> with the legality of a foreign power gathering intelligence on American  
> citizens.  The US is free to observe Germans under our constitution, and  
> I assume Germany is free to observe Americans.  Then I see nothing  
> preventing the American and German government from watching each other's  
> people (and everyone else for that matter), perhaps running some kind of  
> data reduction software, then swapping results.  Both governments then  
> cleanly sidestep those bothersome legal restrictions, depending on how  
> one defines the term "cleanly."


Surely you jest?

That is after all exactly how and why ECHELON (now  FIVE EYES ) was set up  
after all, just not with the Germans, since half of them were Commies at  
the time, IE the very people they were supposed to be spying on, as  
opposed to todays spying on everyone on planet earth.


From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Oct 18 08:07:55 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 10:07:55 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Snowden sets OPSEC record straight
Message-ID: <20131018080755.GV10405@leitl.org>

----- Forwarded message from coderman <coderman at gmail.com> -----

Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 01:03:43 -0700
From: coderman <coderman at gmail.com>
To: "Cathal Garvey (Phone)" <cathalgarvey at cathalgarvey.me>
Cc: cpunks <cypherpunks at cpunks.org>
Subject: Re: Snowden sets OPSEC record straight
Message-ID: <CAJVRA1T3Z0wdLxBfVXr7JzGR5TY4cGyg-tsbWWG5u9YvyRqFpg at mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 18, 2013 at 12:27 AM, Cathal Garvey (Phone)
<cathalgarvey at cathalgarvey.me> wrote:
> Lets not forget that "avoiding a bullet" was a prime motivator in Snowden's
> coming out as the leaker.


that doesn't sound painful enough;

evidence suggests they prefer an extended crushing destruction of
opponents and whistle-blowers -
"""
[Thomas] Drake said he was still suffering the consequences of his
actions. "My life was essentially destroyed," Drake said, noting that
the case took a terrible financial and personal toll. He lost his
retirement savings and went into debt as his legal bills approached
$100,000.   ...   Asked if he still believes what he did was worth it,
Drake had no doubts: "Is freedom worth it? Is liberty worth it? Is not
living in a surveillance society worth it?"   "If you don't want to
live it, then you've got to stand up and defend the rights and the
freedoms that prevent that from actually happening," he said.
"""
  http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/11/us-usa-security-nsa-drake-idUSBRE95A12X20130611



<$TLA> we sentence you to a long life!

----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://ativel.com http://postbiota.org
AC894EC5: 38A5 5F46 A4FF 59B8 336B  47EE F46E 3489 AC89 4EC5


From anders at aleph.se  Fri Oct 18 08:57:59 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 09:57:59 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Snowden sets OPSEC record straight
In-Reply-To: <20131018080755.GV10405@leitl.org>
References: <20131018080755.GV10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <5260F817.40409@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-18 09:07, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> Asked if he still believes what he did was worth it, Drake had no 
> doubts: "Is freedom worth it? Is liberty worth it? Is not living in a 
> surveillance society worth it?" "If you don't want to live it, then 
> you've got to stand up and defend the rights and the freedoms that 
> prevent that from actually happening," he said. "

Yes, when I met this crowd (last year, when they honored Thomas Fingar) 
I was struck by how justified they felt. They had sacrificed a lot for 
doing what was Right, and they slept very well at night with their clean 
consciences.  Of course, a cynical part of my mind saw cognitive 
dissonance hard at work.

I think building the right kind of protective and reward system for 
whistleblowing is a very important function for open societies. I 
suspect that there is inefficiently too little of it.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Oct 18 09:12:26 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 11:12:26 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Snowden sets OPSEC record straight
Message-ID: <20131018091226.GK10405@leitl.org>

----- Forwarded message from coderman <coderman at gmail.com> -----

Date: Thu, 17 Oct 2013 21:13:38 -0700
From: coderman <coderman at gmail.com>
To: cpunks <cypherpunks at cpunks.org>
Subject: Snowden sets OPSEC record straight
Message-ID: <CAJVRA1RsdEr5Yg+t-kGEK-37jBRCATyYFfiNigXEUw6ioAjKww at mail.gmail.com>

it doesn't get much more definitive than this retort.. :
"""
[Snowden] felt confident that he had kept the documents secure from
Chinese spies, and that the N.S.A. knew he had done so. His last
target while working as an agency contractor was China, he said,
adding that he had had ?access to every target, every active
operation? mounted by the N.S.A. against the Chinese. ?Full lists of
them,? he said.

?If that was compromised,? he went on, ?N.S.A. would have set the
table on fire from slamming it so many times in denouncing the damage
it had caused. Yet N.S.A. has not offered a single example of damage
from the leaks. They haven?t said boo about it except ?we think,?
?maybe,? ?have to assume? from anonymous and former officials. Not
?China is going dark.? Not ?the Chinese military has shut us out.? ?
"""


there is a clear thoughtfulness, moral reasoning, and
conscientiousness repeatedly demonstrated by Snowden in these events.
it is now obvious that history will exonerate him fully.

... the distance between current reactionary retribution and that
future absolution appears to be a bit of a distance, however...
hopefully not too long.



---

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/18/world/snowden-says-he-took-no-secret-files-to-russia.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print

October 17, 2013

Snowden Says He Took No Secret Files to Russia

By JAMES RISEN

WASHINGTON ? Edward J. Snowden, the former National Security Agency
contractor, said in an extensive interview this month that he did not
take any secret N.S.A. documents with him to Russia when he fled there
in June, assuring that Russian intelligence officials could not get
access to them.

Mr. Snowden said he gave all of the classified documents he had
obtained to journalists he met in Hong Kong, before flying to Moscow,
and did not keep any copies for himself. He did not take the files to
Russia ?because it wouldn?t serve the public interest,? he said.

?What would be the unique value of personally carrying another copy of
the materials onward?? he added.

He also asserted that he was able to protect the documents from
China?s spies because he was familiar with that nation?s intelligence
abilities, saying that as an N.S.A. contractor he had targeted Chinese
operations and had taught a course on Chinese
cybercounterintelligence.

?There?s a zero percent chance the Russians or Chinese have received
any documents,? he said.

American intelligence officials have expressed grave concern that the
files might have fallen into the hands of foreign intelligence
services, but Mr. Snowden said he believed that the N.S.A. knew he had
not cooperated with the Russians or the Chinese. He said he was
publicly revealing that he no longer had any agency documents to
explain why he was confident that Russia had not gained access to
them. He had been reluctant to disclose that information previously,
he said, for fear of exposing the journalists to greater scrutiny.

In a wide-ranging interview over several days in the last week, Mr.
Snowden offered detailed responses to accusations that have been
leveled against him by American officials and other critics, provided
new insights into why he became disillusioned with the N.S.A. and
decided to disclose the documents, and talked about the international
debate over surveillance that resulted from the revelations. The
interview took place through encrypted online communications.

Mr. Snowden, 30, has been praised by privacy advocates and assailed by
government officials as a traitor who has caused irreparable harm, and
he is facing charges under the Espionage Act for leaking the N.S.A.
documents to the news media. In the interview, he said he believed he
was a whistle-blower who was acting in the nation?s best interests by
revealing information about the N.S.A.?s surveillance dragnet and huge
collections of communications data, including that of Americans.

He argued that he had helped American national security by prompting a
badly needed public debate about the scope of the intelligence effort.
?The secret continuance of these programs represents a far greater
danger than their disclosure,? he said. He added that he had been more
concerned that Americans had not been told about the N.S.A.?s reach
than he was about any specific surveillance operation.

?So long as there?s broad support amongst a people, it can be argued
there?s a level of legitimacy even to the most invasive and morally
wrong program, as it was an informed and willing decision,? he said.
?However, programs that are implemented in secret, out of public
oversight, lack that legitimacy, and that?s a problem. It also
represents a dangerous normalization of ?governing in the dark,? where
decisions with enormous public impact occur without any public input.?

Mr. Snowden said he had never considered defecting while in Hong Kong,
nor in Russia, where he has been permitted to stay for one year. He
said he felt confident that he had kept the documents secure from
Chinese spies, and that the N.S.A. knew he had done so. His last
target while working as an agency contractor was China, he said,
adding that he had had ?access to every target, every active
operation? mounted by the N.S.A. against the Chinese. ?Full lists of
them,? he said.

?If that was compromised,? he went on, ?N.S.A. would have set the
table on fire from slamming it so many times in denouncing the damage
it had caused. Yet N.S.A. has not offered a single example of damage
from the leaks. They haven?t said boo about it except ?we think,?
?maybe,? ?have to assume? from anonymous and former officials. Not
?China is going dark.? Not ?the Chinese military has shut us out.? ?

An N.S.A. spokeswoman did not respond Thursday to a request for
comment on Mr. Snowden?s assertions.

Mr. Snowden said his decision to leak N.S.A. documents developed
gradually, dating back at least to his time working as a technician in
the Geneva station of the C.I.A. His experiences there, Mr. Snowden
said, fed his doubts about the intelligence community, while also
convincing him that working through the chain of command would only
lead to retribution.

He disputed an account in The New York Times last week reporting that
a derogatory comment placed in his personnel evaluation while he was
in Geneva was a result of suspicions that he was trying to break in to
classified files to which he was not authorized to have access. (The
C.I.A. later took issue with the description of why he had been
reprimanded.) Mr. Snowden said the comment was placed in his file by a
senior manager seeking to punish him for trying to warn the C.I.A.
about a computer vulnerability.

Mr. Snowden said that in 2008 and 2009, he was working in Geneva as a
telecommunications information systems officer, handling everything
from information technology and computer networks to maintenance of
the heating and air-conditioning systems. He began pushing for a
promotion, but got into what he termed a ?petty e-mail spat? in which
he questioned a senior manager?s judgment.

Several months later, Mr. Snowden said, he was writing his annual
self-evaluation when he discovered flaws in the software of the
C.I.A.?s personnel Web applications that would make them vulnerable to
hacking. He warned his supervisor, he said, but his boss advised him
to drop the matter and not rock the boat. After a technical team also
brushed him off, he said, his boss finally agreed to allow him to test
the system to prove that it was flawed.

He did so by adding some code and text ?in a nonmalicious manner? to
his evaluation document that showed that the vulnerability existed, he
said. His immediate supervisor signed off on it and sent it through
the system, but a more senior manager ? the man Mr. Snowden had
challenged earlier ? was furious and filed a critical comment in Mr.
Snowden?s personnel file, he said.

He said he had considered filing a complaint with the C.I.A.?s
inspector general about what he considered to be a reprisal, adding
that he could not recall whether he had done so or a supervisor had
talked him out of it. A C.I.A. spokesman declined to comment on Mr.
Snowden?s account of the episode or whether he had filed a complaint.

But the incident, Mr. Snowden said, convinced him that trying to work
through the system would only lead to punishment. He said he knew of
others who suffered reprisals for what they had exposed, including
Thomas A. Drake, who was prosecuted for disclosing N.S.A. contracting
abuses to The Baltimore Sun. (He met with Mr. Snowden in Moscow last
week to present an award to him for his actions.) And he knew other
N.S.A. employees who had gotten into trouble for embarrassing a senior
official in an e-mail chain that included a line, referring to the
Chinese Army, that said, ?Is this the P.L.A. or the N.S.A.??

Mr. Snowden added that inside the spy agency ?there?s a lot of dissent
? palpable with some, even.? But he said that people were kept in line
through ?fear and a false image of patriotism,? which he described as
?obedience to authority.?

He said he believed that if he tried to question the N.S.A.?s
surveillance operations as an insider, his efforts ?would have been
buried forever,? and he would ?have been discredited and ruined.? He
said that ?the system does not work,? adding that ?you have to report
wrongdoing to those most responsible for it.?

Mr. Snowden said he finally decided to act when he discovered a copy
of a classified 2009 inspector general?s report on the N.S.A.?s
warrantless wiretapping program during the Bush administration. He
said he found the document through a ?dirty word search,? which he
described as an effort by a systems administrator to check a computer
system for things that should not be there in order to delete them and
sanitize the system.

?It was too highly classified to be where it was,? he said of the
report. He opened the document to make certain that it did not belong
there, and after he saw what it revealed, ?curiosity prevailed,? he
said.

After reading about the program, which skirted the existing
surveillance laws, he concluded that it had been illegal, he said. ?If
the highest officials in government can break the law without fearing
punishment or even any repercussions at all,? he said, ?secret powers
become tremendously dangerous.?

He would not say exactly when he read the report, or discuss the
timing of his subsequent actions to collect N.S.A. documents in order
to leak them. But he said that reading the report helped crystallize
his decision. ?You can?t read something like that and not realize what
it means for all of these systems we have,? he said.

Mr. Snowden said that the impact of his decision to disclose
information about the N.S.A. had been bigger than he had anticipated.
He added that he did not control what the journalists who had the
documents wrote about. He said that he handed over the documents to
them because he wanted his own bias ?divorced from the decision-making
of publication,? and that ?technical solutions were in place to ensure
the work of the journalists couldn?t be interfered with.?

Mr. Snowden declined to provide details about his living conditions in
Moscow, except to say that he was not under Russian government control
and was free to move around.


----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://ativel.com http://postbiota.org
AC894EC5: 38A5 5F46 A4FF 59B8 336B  47EE F46E 3489 AC89 4EC5


From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Oct 18 14:31:53 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 16:31:53 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [Hplus-talk] Working toward an Optimal Future
Message-ID: <20131018143153.GY10405@leitl.org>

----- Forwarded message from Magnus Ulstein <magnus.ulstein at gmail.com> -----

Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 15:44:41 +0200
From: Magnus Ulstein <magnus.ulstein at gmail.com>
To: hplus-talk at list.humanityplus.org
Subject: [Hplus-talk] Working toward an Optimal Future
Message-ID: <CAGSNXr3SuJj8q7UiSERGCq3n7xeCCq4emJkDmY36Y_4Aix0Eag at mail.gmail.com>

If you are on this mailing list, chances are you?ve given at least some
thought into how you would prefer the future to turn out. And chances are
reality isn?t quite living up to your expectations. So the question we have
to ask ourselves is: What can we do about it? How can we nudge
transhumanity on to a path that leads to a more optimal future? And just as
importantly: what does a more optimal future even mean?

So, what can we do about it? Well, there are maybe a few thousand of you
who receive this email. That?s probably enough of a community to do
something. And elsewhere on the internet, net communities like LessWrong
and the Lifeboat Foundation are working to prevent some pretty nasty
futures. In another corner of the internet, environmentalists and
socialists are discussing how to prevent a corporation controlled future
from two very different angles. Environmentalist movements oppose genetic
modification in general, thinking only of terminator seeds and genetic
diversity while transhumanist movements support genetic modification in
general, thinking about the end of hereditary disease and a new generation
of transhumans.

As I see it, the main problem we have is simply this: those of us who think
seriously about the future aren?t talking to each other. At least not
enough. There are millions of people out there working towards a brighter
future, and we aren?t coordinating. And because we lock ourselves in
different mailing lists, on different web forums, we miss out on the ideas
that could be born from our interaction.

We have a lot we can learn from each other. Imagine the Green movement
combining with the Maker movement to produce 3d printers using recycled
plastic. Imagine transhumanist socialism, based on raising everyone up
rather than forcing everyone down to the lowest common denominator. Imagine
open sourced cybernetic implants.  Who knows what good ideas could emerge
if we could just talk together.

Some colleagues and myself have put together a website where all futurists
and people who care about the future (but do not identify themselves as
futurist) can discuss the relevant topics and hopefully find novel
solutions through combining ideas that one wouldn?t normally think to
combine.

Hence this mail. Humanity+ is perhaps one of the largest and best
established future interested groups out there, and frankly I?m not sure
we?d be able to pull it off without you. Your participation in this grand
experiment would help us make a more Optimal Future for everyone. In
return, we can offer a refreshing change of perspective and a look at the
bigger picture on where we are headed.

I hope to see you there.

http://optimalfuture.org/

_______________________________________________
Hplus-talk mailing list
Hplus-talk at list.humanityplus.org
http://lists.list.humanityplus.org/mailman/listinfo/hplus-talk


----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://ativel.com http://postbiota.org
AC894EC5: 38A5 5F46 A4FF 59B8 336B  47EE F46E 3489 AC89 4EC5


From eugen at leitl.org  Fri Oct 18 15:48:44 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 17:48:44 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...
Message-ID: <20131018154844.GG10405@leitl.org>


http://innovation.uk.msn.com/personal/who-wants-to-live-forever-maybe-you-can

Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...

Simon Cowell wants to be frozen in ice when he dies and for the right price
you can be too

A cryonics laboratory (? Rex Features)

Rex Features

Cryonics has been a staple of science fiction ever since its invention in the
1960s. The idea that human bodies can be frozen at death, and then magically
thawed in the future by humans with advanced technology has obvious public
appeal.

It?s easy to see cryonics as science fiction for gullible rich fools, but it
has always had a serious side. Over the years a constant stream of
innovations in cryonic storage, advances in brain-scanning technology and the
ever-forward push to create a computer as powerful as the human mind have
conspired to keep cryonics a respectable science: even if it?s fully rooted
in belief, rather than any scientific fact. It?s got some rich friends too:
the TV mogul Simon Cowell is reportedly interested in the innovations in
cryonics. In 2009 he was said to have told dinner guests that he had "decided
to freeze myself when I die".

The idea of cryonics sprang up in the 1960s: it was first introduced in 1965
by Karl Werner and several societies in support of it sprang up in the US,
including the Cryonics Society of Michigan (CSM), the Cryonics Society of
California (CSC) and the Bay Area Cryonics Society (BACS).

It soon became a mainstay of science fiction, including one episode of Star
Trek: TNG in which the crew of the USS Enterprise intercepted a cryonics
satellite and brought several humans from the year 1994 back to life. Today
there are still many avid enthusiasts of cryonics, including the Cryonics
Institute and Cryonics UK, and several professional companies such as KrioRus
and Alcor ready to put people in frozen storage for perpetuity (that is
?forever?).

And the cost of cryonics is falling thanks to newcomers in Russia. This has
made it possible for everyday people to consider being frozen at death, and
not just multimillionaire TV executives.

The Kriorus deep freeze (? Kriorus)

Kriorus

Is cryonics a rip-off?

There is a website called Rational Wiki, in which academics analyse and
refute pseudoscience. It says that ?Cryonicists are almost all sincere,
exceedingly smart, and capable people. However, they are also by and large
absolute fanatics, and really believe that freezing your freshly-dead body is
the best current hope of evading permanent death and that the $50?120,000
this costs is an obviously sensible investment in the distant future. There
is little, if any, deliberate fraud going on.? Although it does point out
that ?at present cryonics practices are speculation at best, and quackery and
pseudoscience at worst.?

The cost of cryonics varies greatly depending on the agency at work. Alcor,
the leading US-based organisation, charges more than $250,000 for full-body
cryopreservation. But new organisations such as the Russian-based KrioRus
charge around $10,000 for just the head; or up to $80,000 for the full body.
It?s worth noting that there are other costs on top of this. You have to pay
somebody to arrive at the scene of your death and quickly freeze your body,
then arrange for it to be transported to the cryonics facility.

However, it is possible to sign up for cryonics as part of a life insurance
policy. This spreads the cost of both transportation and cryonics. Cryonics
UK (a UK charity) runs its own ambulance service manned by volunteers; these
people are trained to freeze a body at the time of death and arrange for it
to be transferred to the cryonics facility.

It?s not fraud: but cryonics is generally considered a waste of money. How
much money you want to spend is up to you. The adage ?you can?t take it with
you? springs to mind (although you can always donate it to the charity of
your choice instead).

A freezing body (? Cryonics UK)

Cryonics UK

How does cryonics work?

Even in the future it is unlikely (although not impossible) that the process
of freezing a human being could be reversed. And that you could be brought
back  to life. But as our understanding of the human mind progresses, and our
computer processing capability expands, the idea of retrieving the
information from a human brain, and storing it in a computerised machine is
starting to look increasingly possible. This ?mind mapping? is what generally
interests cryonicists today.

Given the rate of Moore?s law of computer expansion it is estimated that the
human race is 25 years away from building a computer with the same level of
processing power as the human mind. What then becomes possible with mind
scanning and mind mapping will become very interesting.

A brain scan (? Diagn?stico por Imagem, Lda - Portugal)

Diagn?stico por Imagem, Lda - Portugal Cryonics enthusiasts believe that
revival may be possible thanks to advanced bioengineering, molecular
nanotechnology or mind uploading. It?s certainly true that brain scanners are
becoming increasingly powerful, and ever more capable. And they?re already
routinely used on dead people. Scanners are often used to observe Egyptian
bodies preserved through mummification. It?s not inconceivable that more
advanced models will be used to scan cryogenically preserved bodies in the
future.

A mummy being scanned (? Siemens)

Siemens

There is an open letter signed by 61 prominent scientists, which states that
?cryonics is a legitimate science-based endeavor that seeks to preserve human
beings, especially the human brain, by the best technology available. Future
technologies for resuscitation can be envisioned that involve molecular
repair by nanomedicine, highly advanced computation, detailed control of cell
growth, and tissue regeneration.?

Working with liquid nitrogen (? Rex Features)

Rex Features

Can you trust the cryonics agencies?

Cryonics is a long way away from being offered on the NHS, and is a fairly
niche activity (it is estimated that only around 250 people have been
actually cryonically preserved to date).

There is the fear that the agency you choose to frozen you will not be as
legitimate as you would like, although the Cryonics community is generally
considered small and serious.

But there are always questions about how your chosen facility will be run in
the future. Cryonics suffered its first major setback in 1979 when it was
discovered that nine bodies stored by CSC Chatsworth had thawed due to lack
of funding. Wikipedia notes that ?All modern cryonics organizations require
full payment for all future costs associated with storage 'in perpetuity'
before patient cryostorage will be accepted.?

Working in the lab (? Rex Features)

Rex Features

Is cheating death natural?

The idea of death as an intrinsic part of life is so essential to humans that
we overlook many organisms don't. A jellyfish known as Turritopsis nutricula
regresses back to a juvenile form once it mates, through a process called
transdifferentiation, and so it can theoretically live forever. There is also
some doubt as to whether lobsters die from natural causes (being boiled and
eaten doesn?t really count). And there are plenty of microscopic animals and
bacteria that don?t die in any sense that we think of as death. Aside from
this there are many organisms that live well in excess of 2,000 years and
aspen trees up to 80,000 years old are still alive. Given all this, our
paltry lifespan of 100 years starts to seem ever so limited.

So nature is clearly capable of creating organisms that live far longer than
us, or rejuvenate instead of dying. The question is could we, and should we,
do the same?

The idea does have an air of the unnatural about it, but then our lives are
already artificially extended. For much of human history the average life
expectancy was 38 years (although this figure is weighed significantly by
infant mortality); the current world average is 68 years, with Japan leading
the way at 82 years. Cryonics UK states: ?Science is constantly pushing the
boundaries of what is considered ?dead?; cryonics simply pushes that boundary
a little further.?


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Oct 18 16:54:43 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 10:54:43 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...
In-Reply-To: <20131018154844.GG10405@leitl.org>
References: <20131018154844.GG10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZVztFVLiXzoDzvwh6hkMZwWhd0kQeMcRmR4pebupkdTQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 18, 2013 at 9:48 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> But new organisations such as the Russian-based KrioRus
> charge around $10,000 for just the head;


I'd be interested in Max's impressions of KrioRus. $10k is getting into the
realm of reality from my perspective, but if it has zero percent chance of
working, then it's not worth it.

-Kelly
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From spike66 at att.net  Fri Oct 18 16:49:29 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 09:49:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] five stages interpretation of shutdown
Message-ID: <013501cecc22$0400d1c0$0c027540$@att.net>

 

Elisabeth Kubler-Ross introduced a ground-breaking theory in her 1969 book
On Death and Dying, regarding the five stages generally experience by
terminally ill patients, denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance.
Since that time, we have realized that the concept can be expanded to some
degree.  Examples would be dealing with other losses besides death, such as
divorce, a huge financial setback or the end of career.

 

The EKR theory can help explain conflict in groups of people dealing with a
common tragedy, such as a family dealing with the loss of a child for
instance, or a company which loses a huge contract to a competitor and is
ruined.  The members of the group at different stages of DABDA tend to find
themselves in conflict with each other.

 

Let us try to use the EKR notion to interpret the flailing acrimony
regarding the recent conniptions of the US government.  I think it explains
a lot of what we are seeing and hearing.

 

If we try to apply EKR theory in this novel manner, the first thing to
identify is what is the crisis or tragedy?  Unless we can focus on a common
assumption there, the experiment will fail.

 

spike

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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Fri Oct 18 20:13:57 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 14:13:57 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAPy8Rwain5wAT=KRHmO3TxMt09aTZRONW0GnDBbacLNmRUCreQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Oct 16, 2013 at 10:27 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> *From:* extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:
> extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On Behalf Of *John Clark
>
> *Sent:* Wednesday, October 16, 2013 9:04 AM
> *To:* ExI chat list
> *Subject:* [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
> "asinine"****
>
> ** **
>
> For those living in a fools paradise and think the failure to extend the
> debt ceiling is no big deal this is what Warren Buffett, a man who knows a
> thing or two about money, has to say on the subject:  ?   John K Clark****
>
>
> **
>
> John everyone, even the Tea Party, agrees default is bad.  The argument is
> really about who is doing it and why we keep hitting the debt limit with
> mind-numbing regularity, as well as how to stop hitting it it and what to
> do if the lenders stop lending, which is looking like a more distinct
> possibility very day.
>
It is idiotic for the president to stand up and say we don't have a
spending problem.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbWVv8H_S44

We have just added another Trillion dollars to the debt ceiling, and we're
going to hit that early next year. A trillion dollars in debt in just a few
months. It's incomprehensible to think that someone as smart as the
president of the united states would think this is a good idea.

-Kelly
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From msd001 at gmail.com  Fri Oct 18 20:16:45 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 16:16:45 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8Rwain5wAT=KRHmO3TxMt09aTZRONW0GnDBbacLNmRUCreQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
 <CAPy8Rwain5wAT=KRHmO3TxMt09aTZRONW0GnDBbacLNmRUCreQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbKu5HFEAAmDupSXNDTfpMaOn4PP_0=EwZ=-WVR-3RHfxg@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 18, 2013 at 4:13 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>wrote:

> It is idiotic for the president to stand up and say we don't have a
> spending problem.
>

Isn't that like the alcoholic that says "I don't have a drinking problem, I
rather enjoy it."
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Oct 18 20:35:18 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 16:35:18 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <037201cecb8c$4428af20$cc7a0d60$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
 <CAPGs0J_oJanEbfc0E_ivYcxCswk1zco=Lz5vrEYyqfc9pSjvew@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAJPayv0nUgF8CmeVvZpZw6PmxxCJU3OB_61DW5moP9BehRvfsg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Oct 17, 2013 at 6:57 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

 > John what do you make of this?
>
> http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/tea-party-science-98488.html?hp=r3
>

Not much, there are no details. I have some details, what do you make of
this?

TEA PARTY member and presidential candidate Senator Rick Santorum proposed
a amendment that would require the teaching of creationism in schools.

TEA PARTY member and potential presidential candidate Senator Marco Rubio
said:

"Whether the Earth was created in 7 days, or 7 actual eras, I?m not sure
we?ll ever be able to answer that. It?s one of the great mysteries.? (he
doesn?t even know the Bible, it says 6 days not 7)

TEA PARTY member Governor and presidential candidate Rick Perry bragged:

?[Evolution is just] a theory that's out there. I am a firm believer in
intelligent design as a matter of faith and intellect. In Texas we teach
both Creationism and evolution.?

TEA PARTY member and potential presidential candidate Senator Rand Paul
thinks prayer should be in public schools and refuses to dismiss the idea
that the Earth is only 9000 years old.

TEA PARTY member and presidential candidate congressman Michele Bachman
said:

"There are hundreds and hundreds of scientists, many of them holding Nobel
Prizes, who believe in intelligent design.?

TEA PARTY congressman (and member of the House SCIENCE committee!!) Paul
Brown said:

"All that stuff I was taught about evolution and embryology and the Big
Bang Theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of Hell. And it's lies
to try to keep me and all the folks who were taught that from understanding
that they need a savior. You see, there are a lot of scientific data that
I've found out as a scientist that actually show that this is really a
young Earth. I don't believe that the Earth's but about 9,000 years old. I
believe it was created in six days as we know them. That's what the Bible
says.?

TEA PARTY Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell said:

"American scientific companies are cross-breeding humans and animals and
coming up with mice with fully functioning human brains. You know what,
evolution is a myth. Why aren't monkeys still evolving into humans??

Can you think of one prominent Tea Party member who has said something
positive about the single most important biological idea known? I can?t.

> the claim can be made that there is no evidence that the Tea Party is an
> extreme wing of either end of the political spectrum.
>

No evidence of extremism??!! 18 republican senators (including all the
potential GOP 2016 presidential candidates) and the vast majority of
republican house members voted AGAINST averting a economic catastrophe of
unprecedented proportions  just 90 minutes before is was set to hit. If
they had gotten their way on Thursday the stock market would have dropped
many thousands of points and today entire world would be in a state of
panic not seen since 1929. No evidence of extremism??!!


> > I still haven?t been able to figure out why it is lunacy to point out
> that the US is not only pretending to pay off debts with borrowed money
>

The difference between the government?s debts and yours is that the
government has the power to print money and you don?t, so yes, they are
paying off their debts by cranking up the printing presses; but that is
only lunacy in a time of high inflation, at other times it can be a very
good idea. The Great Depression started in 1929 and reached its nadir in
early 1933, after that things slowly but steadily improved until 1938 when
conservative politicians decided that even though there was no sign of
inflation (just like now) it was time to stop the printing presses and
embrace austerity.  And then the economy promptly crashed again almost back
to 1933 levels and didn?t recover again until 1942.

> If it is crazy stupid lunacy now, how much crazier and loonier was it 7
> to 10 years ago when the left wing rising stars were forcefully delivering
> the same message, when the deficit was a quarter what it is now and the
> debt was less than a third as much as it is now?  Those guys must have been
> some really powerful brand of stupid.
>

Since then we?ve had a really stupid guy predict that the 2 wars he started
would pay for themselves and when they didn?t that same stupid guy put the
cost of the wars on a credit card, and since then we?ve also had the worst
economic downturn in over 80 years, so of course the debt went up.

> Earlier I had an alternative suggestion to repeatedly raising the
> government borrowing limit: we sell the gold in Fort Knox.  Every American
> to whom I suggested this thought it a terrible idea.
>

If they?re not tea party members I?m not surprised.

  > So the obvious question is, if we are issuing IOUs and the world is
> pretending these are money,
>

We do and they are.

> is not that identical to selling the actual gold?
>

No.

 > Are we admitting these IOUs are not as good as gold, but rather are as
> good as paper?
>

Yes, but that is hardly new, the government admitted that on March 4, 1933.
And yet for the last 80 years the dollar has continued to retain value,
even though it was no longer exchangeable for gold, for one reason and one
reason only, most people, even people who hated the USA with a passion, had
faith the government would keep its monetary promises. And on October 23
2013 thanks to the Tea Party we came within 90 minutes of that faith being
destroyed forever.

> John your objection as I recall is that it would cause chaos by tanking
> the value of gold.  I don?t see why that is such a problem.
>

You want to reinvent everything from square one on up and make the most
radical change in the way the  world economy operates in human history, and
you think you can get it all done in 90 minutes without blood flowing in
the streets.  And that?s not evidence of extremism ??!!

For your long term survival you?re going to have to live through not one
but two singularities, one caused by Nanotechnology and AI, and the other
cause by the room temperature IQ of congressional Tea Party members.

  John K Clark
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From max at maxmore.com  Fri Oct 18 21:03:04 2013
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 14:03:04 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZVztFVLiXzoDzvwh6hkMZwWhd0kQeMcRmR4pebupkdTQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20131018154844.GG10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZVztFVLiXzoDzvwh6hkMZwWhd0kQeMcRmR4pebupkdTQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJX-7wUADENNkZGUBNEQG60UTZa+vPEB5iVm8czAZuZ6HhvmYA@mail.gmail.com>

Kriorus is not going to cryopreserve you for $10K. I believe that price
does not include various additional costs involved in getting you to them.
>From the US to Russia would be quite a bit extra. If you want a standby
(very important!), stabilization, and prompt transport you would have to
make additional arrangements (if that's possible) at further cost.

I'm pretty sure it's correct to say that Kriorus has nothing like Alcor's
Patient Care Trust Fund. They couldn't, with prices that low. That means
they have no money dedicated to keeping you cryopreserved. I believe they
are entirely dependent on sufficient new business to keep them in operation
and their patients in storage. If they keep growing fast enough, perhaps
that could work. If not, it will not be sustainable.

Kelly, I presume you know that you can use life insurance to pay for
cryopreservation? You can get a neurocryopreservation with Alcor for $80K
(which includes standby, stabilization, and transport). If you already have
or can get a policy for something like that amount ($100K may be the
minimum), you're covered.

--Max




On Fri, Oct 18, 2013 at 9:54 AM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>wrote:

> On Fri, Oct 18, 2013 at 9:48 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:
>
>> But new organisations such as the Russian-based KrioRus
>> charge around $10,000 for just the head;
>
>
> I'd be interested in Max's impressions of KrioRus. $10k is getting into
> the realm of reality from my perspective, but if it has zero percent chance
> of working, then it's not worth it.
>
> -Kelly
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
http://www.amazon.com/Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-Technology-Philosophy/dp/1118334310/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1372225570&sr=1-1&keywords=the+transhumanist+reader
President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
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From spike66 at att.net  Sat Oct 19 01:00:11 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 18:00:11 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv0nUgF8CmeVvZpZw6PmxxCJU3OB_61DW5moP9BehRvfsg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <011501cecc66$91421280$b3c63780$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of John Clark
Subject: Re: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
"asinine"

 

 


On Thu, Oct 17, 2013 at 6:57 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

 

 > John what do you make of this?

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/tea-party-science-98488.html?hp=r3

 
>.Not much, there are no details. I have some details, what do you make of
this?


>.TEA PARTY member and presidential candidate Senator Rick Santorum.

Etc.  John, it is much easier to paint your political adversaries as crazy
and stupid than it is to deal with their contentions.  Economics and biology
are two completely different disciplines.  Many biologists are clued in on
economics either.  We could likely find plenty of them who couldn't tell
Hayek from Keynes.

>>. the claim can be made that there is no evidence that the Tea Party is an
extreme wing of either end of the political spectrum.


>.No evidence of extremism??!! 18 republican senators (including all the
potential GOP 2016 presidential candidates) and the vast majority of
republican house members voted AGAINST averting a economic catastrophe.

 

Ja, and plenty of those were not extremists.  My contention is that we
cannot tell for instance which wing is Ted Cruz.  He could be far left as
well as far right.  Recall that the two farthest left members of congress in
2004 and 2006 were the strongest voices against raising the debt limit,
Charlie Rangel and Barack Obama.  When both switched sides, I was as
appalled but perhaps less surprised than if Christopher Hitchins and Richard
Dawkins had taken up creationism.

 

>.The difference between the government's debts and yours is that the
government has the power to print money and you don't, so yes, they are
paying off their debts by cranking up the printing presses.

 

OK then, we have discovered the basis of our disagreement.  John how could
you be right in the middle of all this debate yet still not realize the
government needs to borrow money in order to print it?  Printing money and
borrowing wealth are the same thing.  The debt limit is all about how much
money the government can issue.  The government needs to borrow real wealth
and stay within its borrowing limit in order to print money.

 

Of course they could theoretically print money without borrowing wealth.
This has been tried, in Weimar Germany and more recently Zimbabwe.  The
Germans supposed they would just need to make more sturdy wheelbarrows and
all would be well.  The Zimbabwe government assumed they could just print
new money every few months with an extra zero tacked onto the denominations.
I wasn't there, but I understand it turned out badly in both cases.

 

 

>>. Earlier I had an alternative suggestion to repeatedly raising the
government borrowing limit: we sell the gold in Fort Knox.  Every American
to whom I suggested this thought it a terrible idea.


>.If they're not tea party members I'm not surprised.

So why are we hording that stuff?  It isn't used for anything useful
anymore.

 

>>. is not that identical to selling the actual gold?


>.No.

Why?  If there is a good reason to hang onto gold, why not sell that new
aircraft carrier, the John F. Kennedy?  That one is said to have cost about
12 billion, so we can assume it would sell for about the same.  Stock it
with American made fighter planes gets it to about 15B.  At the current
rate, just one battle-ready modern nuclear carrier with planes would cover
US government borrowing for nearly a entire week.  Well, OK, five days if we
want to split hairs and quibble over a mere few billion dollars.

 

 >>. Are we admitting these IOUs are not as good as gold, but rather are as
good as paper?


>. And on October 23  2013 thanks to the Tea Party we came within 90 minutes
of that faith being destroyed forever.

The fact that there is a Tea Party is what keeps the world having some faith
in the dollar.  What if we had no one who thought there was anything wrong
with borrowing the cost of a nuclear aircraft carrier every five days?

> . the other cause by the room temperature IQ of congressional Tea Party
members.  John K Clark

 

It is far easier to declare your adversary a crazy fool than it is to
actually refute his actual arguments.  The Tea Party is gently suggesting
that we cannot sustain the endless borrowing and overspending the way we
have been doing for at least 14 years.  You are saying the Tea Party is made
up of crazy fools, therefore their arguments can be safely dismissed.  Does
that mean you believe we can sustain the borrow and spend indefinitely?

 

spike





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From spike66 at att.net  Sat Oct 19 05:45:51 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 22:45:51 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <011501cecc66$91421280$b3c63780$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
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 <02a401ceca96$cd3cc4a0$67b64de0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3e1AwH2w5d6eKvY6_ZfHu-VXK3DDEHo7VaDO=QVnRJ6g@mail.gmail.com>
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 <011501cecc66$91421280$b3c63780$@att.net>
Message-ID: <006501cecc8e$794ffa70$6befef50$@att.net>

 

 

On Behalf Of spike



 

 

>>>. is not that identical to selling the actual gold?


>>.No.

>.Why?  If there is a good reason to hang onto gold.

.I can't imagine what it is.  Google claims there is about 150 million
ounces of gold in Ft. Knox, so that is about a couple hundred billion
dollars right there.  If we sell that to China, we still owe them over a
trillion dollars, but at least we offset two entire months of borrowing at
the current rate, TWO WHOLE MONTHS of this current Bacchanalian spendfest!
Just hand over the damn gold.  We could sell off that, wouldn't even need to
borrow until the middle of December, possibly make it to Jingle Bells on
that alone if we tighten the belt a bit.  Two months of our current
lifestyle to which we have grown so fondly accustomed, just for a pile of
useless yellow metal.

And surely there must be some silver squirreled away somewhere.  We are told
we aren't really racking up new debt, but rather just paying for stuff we
already bought.  So it appears to me it is past time to already sell some
stuff we already bought.  There is probably some valuable stuff lying around
here somewhere, perhaps some change in the couch cushions, before we have to
resort to selling Alaska and Hawaii.  If we did that, we would need to
change all the flags back to 48 stars.

>.why not sell that new aircraft carrier, the John F. Kennedy?  That one is
said to have cost about 12 billion, so we can assume it would sell for about
the same.  Stock it with American made fighter planes gets it to about 15B.

My apologies, the new carrier set to launch next month is the Gerald R.
Ford:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Gerald_R._Ford_(CVN-78)

Aint she a beauty?  Ignoring the obvious absurdity of naming a ship after a
man then referring to her with the feminine pronoun, I am left even more
baffled as to why we are still building these things, while borrowing money
at the rate of one fully loaded floating nuclear hornet's nest every five
days.  Is there anything even vaguely insane about this practice?

We can build one of these Ford-class carriers about every three years if we
keep the modern Rosie the Riveters going around the clock, so we only need
90 more of them to cover what we owe China and about 70 for what we owe
Japan, so at the current rate, we can pay off both those guys in about four
and half centuries just in fully stocked aircraft carriers.  Of course those
two countries are the biggest buyers of our securities, so it isn't clear
how we can make this happen if we build a nuclear carrier every three years
while we are borrowing a nuclear carrier every five days.  But I digress.

>. And on October 23  2013 thanks to the Tea Party we came within 90 minutes
of that faith being destroyed forever.

Why those evil rotten bastards.  90 minutes to total destruction of the
planet!  The USA had only enough time to borrow about 170 million dollars in
that 90 minutes to destruction.

> . the other cause by the room temperature IQ of congressional Tea Party
members.  John K Clark

 

Remind me again John how those foolish evil stupid congressional Tea Party
members are causing all this?  Did you mean they are the crazy fools who
actually uttered the flaming blasphemy that the emperor is naked?

spike

 

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From eugen at leitl.org  Sat Oct 19 09:27:26 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 11:27:26 +0200
Subject: [ExI] [cryptome] Thank You, Edward Snowden
Message-ID: <20131019092726.GO10405@leitl.org>

----- Forwarded message from coderman <coderman at gmail.com> -----

Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 12:11:43 -0700
From: coderman <coderman at gmail.com>
To: cpunks <cypherpunks at cpunks.org>, cryptome at freelists.org
Subject: [cryptome] Thank You, Edward Snowden
Message-ID: <CAJVRA1RYc8kUZAUqpmUw=+17CznWYhHE5grdx_xdTGk+W0CHFA at mail.gmail.com>
Reply-To: cryptome at freelists.org

Ron Wyden++

--

http://reason.com/archives/2013/10/18/thank-you-edward-snowden/print

Ronald Bailey | Oct. 18, 2013 1:30 pm

Last week the Cato Institute put on a terrific conference about
unconstitutional domestic spying. The Cato conference took place after
a summer of alarming revelations of just how deep and extensive the
feds? secret surveillance of our everyday communications had become.
The conference, held at the institute?s downtown D.C. headquarters,
brought some of the most knowledgeable Internet luminaries together
with some of the fiercest fighters for Americans? Fourth Amendment
rights.

Watchdog organizations such as the Electronic Frontier Foundation
(EFF) and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) had sought for
years to expose the extent and depth of federal surveillance, but
their efforts were largely stymied by the very walls of secrecy they
were trying to breach. In the 2006 case Hepting v. AT&T, for example,
the EFF sued the giant telco for the privacy violations incurred by
allowing the National Security Agency (NSA) to wiretap and data-mine
all of the company?s customers? communications. To forestall this
case, Congress in 2008 passed the FISA Amendments Act, conferring
retroactive immunity on the telephone companies and government
agencies for engaging in warrantless wiretapping. Earlier this year,
the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a challenge to the FISA Amendments Act
by the ACLU and other groups, on the grounds that they had no standing
to sue because they could not actually prove that the NSA was spying
on them. This is Catch-22 logic: The ACLU needs to sue the NSA to get
the evidence that the agency spied on it and its clients, but they
can?t sue because they have no evidence that the agency spied on them.

The walls of surveillance secrecy were finally cracked by the June
revelations of whistleblower Edward Snowden. Snowden?s files
conclusively show that the federal government has been operating a
vast spying program that violates the Fourth Amendment rights of tens
of millions of ordinary Americans. To justify this surveillance, the
government offers tortured legal interpretations of Section 702 of the
Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and Section 215 of the PATRIOT
Act.

Section 702 authorizes warrantless surveillance of the communications
of foreigners outside of the United States. As Snowden?s documents
reveal, the NSA has interpreted Section 702 as a backdoor loophole
allowing the agency to retain and comb through the call data and
emails of Americans whose communications are ?about? a terror suspect
or have been ?inadvertently? intercepted by the NSA?s PRISM monitoring
program. The even more egregious violations of our constitutional
rights, Snowden revealed, occurred under Section 215 of the PATRIOT
Act, which the NSA has used to justify the dragnet collection and
retention of the call metadata of essentially all Americans. (Metadata
includes the numbers called and the location, date, time, and duration
of each call.)

The first keynote at the Cato conference was delivered by Sen. Ron
Wyden (D-Ore.), who cited the ?revelations of June? numerous times.
Several speakers used such circumlocutions during the conference,
clearly as a way to avoid actually speaking the name of the man who
finally broke the news that our government has been unconstitutionally
spying on us for years. Despite his reticence with regard to Snowden,
Wyden has been at the lonely forefront of the fight to rein in
America?s growing surveillance state. It was Wyden who asked Director
of National Intelligence James Clapper in a March hearing whether the
agency collected any sort of data on hundreds of millions of
Americans. ?No, sir,? lied Clapper. ?Not wittingly.?

After Snowden?s revelations proved that Clapper was a liar, Clapper
attempted to justify himself in a June television interview by
suggesting that ?collect? doesn?t mean the same thing to him that it
means to ordinary Americans. ?Collect,? Clapper claimed, doesn?t mean
intercepting and storing data about telephone calls; the data are only
?collected? when the agency goes searching through its vast databases
looking for specific calls. At the Cato conference, New York Times
national security reporter Charlie Savage pointed out that ?Congress
doesn?t know that there is a secret lexicon at the NSA in which words
mean something else at the NSA.? He recommended that people might want
to look up the Electronic Frontier Foundation?s helpful NSA glossary,
which shows how the agency reinterprets normal words in ways that
ordinary people would say amount to ?lies.? Another speaker, Rep.
Justin Amash (R-Mich.), said that Clapper should step down and be
prosecuted for lying to Congress.

During his morning keynote, Wyden outlined the main provisions of a
new bill he introduced with Sens. Mark Udall (D-Utah), Richard
Blumenthal (D-Conn.), and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) two weeks earlier. The
bill would end the mass collection of American?s communication data,
close the backdoor search loophole under FISA Section 702, provide an
advocate to argue against government abuses before the Foreign
Intelligence Surveillance Court, and enable citizens to be heard in
federal courts when they believe that the surveillance agencies have
violated their Fourth Amendment right to privacy. In addition,
telecommunications companies would be enabled to disclose more
information about their cooperation with government surveillance
activities.

Wyden warned that the agency heads and their enablers in the Congress,
such as Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Dianne Feinstein
(D-Calif.), would be striking back against proposals for increased
transparency. ?Their objective is to fog up the surveillance debate,?
he explained, ?and convince Congress and the public that the real
problem is not unconstitutional surveillance, the real problem is
sensationalistic reporting.? Wyden is encouraged, however, by the
broader reaction to the ?revelations of June.? Referring to the Amash
amendment, a July measure that sought to cut funding to the NSA?s bulk
collection of Americans? phone records, Wyden said, ?If you?d told me
that you could get 200 votes on the floor of the House of
Representative, I would have said you?re dreaming.? The amendment
failed, but the vote was surprisingly close.

Of course, that vote was only possible because of Snowden?s
disclosures. Yet in July, when Wyden was asked whether Snowden is a
hero or a villain, he replied that ?when there is an individual who?s
been charged criminally and he has been charged with espionage, I
don?t get into commenting beyond that.? Wyden should comment, and his
comment should be: ?Thank you, Edward Snowden.?

Next up at the conference was a panel of national security reporters
moderated by Cato?s Julian Sanchez. The panelists were Bart Gellman of
the Washington Post, Spencer Ackerman of The Guardian, Siobhan Gorman
of The Wall Street Journal, and Charlie Savage of The New York Times.
Gellman was the first speaker to say the word ?Snowden,? noting that
the whistleblower?s greatest fear was that the risks he took would be
all for nothing; that there would be no debate over the extent and
intrusiveness of domestic surveillance. In fact, Gellman declared,
?Snowden succeeded beyond his wildest dreams.?

Gellman also said that Clapper wasn?t the only administration official
to lie to Congress. NSA chief Keith Alexander wasn?t telling the truth
when he claimed a year ago that his agency does ?not hold data on U.S.
citizens? at its gigantic new data facility in Bluffdale, Utah. And
the Justice Department had certainly been misleading, even if it
didn?t technically lie, when it said the Section 215 authorities had
been used only 20 to 30 times to collect data. Yes, but those 20 to 30
times allowed the NSA to collect trillions of records.

Gorman added that the Snowden revelations had ?shaken the trees? and
prompted other reporting that has forced other government disclosures
about various domestic spying efforts. For example, the NSA has tapped
the Internet backbone through secret agreements with nine major (but
unnamed) U.S. telecommunications companies. This has given the agency
the capacity to monitor 75 percent of all U.S. Internet
communications. Once it was revealed that the big telecommunications
companies were cooperating with the NSA spying program, Gellman noted,
they started agitating to be allowed to disclose more about what they
are being asked and ordered to do.

The luncheon keynote was delivered by Rep. Amash, who described how
spy agencies try to limit congressional access to information about
their activities, making meaningful oversight all but impossible.
Agencies speak in generalities and then engage in a game of 20
questions with legislators who seek deeper knowledge. They might, for
example, answer a query with ?No, our agency doesn?t do that? without
mentioning that another agency does.

Amash described one occasion in which he was seeking to review a
particular document and the agency promised to arrange for members of
Congress to do so. The agency did not send a message that the document
was available for scrutiny by emailing members? offices directly;
instead it sent the notification through the more general and less
read Dear Colleague email system. Even then, the document was
available for review only between 9 a.m. and noon in a briefing room
on the day just before Congress was scheduled to leave for vacation.
Members who reviewed the document also had to sign a nondisclosure
agreement saying that they would not discuss it with other members who
had not seen it.

After lunch, the conference featured a panel of legal experts, many of
whom have tangled in court with the NSA and the Justice Department.
Georgetown law professor Laura Donohue argued that the Foreign
Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) was solely created to supervise
spying on foreign powers and their agents. Under statute, the FISC is
supposed to review and grant orders under Section 215 only when
agencies supply ?a statement of fact showing that there are reasonable
grounds to believe that tangible things sought are relevant to an
authorized investigation.?

Donohue argues that the FISC and the NSA have now interpreted
?relevant? to include all data on all telephone calls, and possibly
other records, such as data on all emails, financial records, medical
records, and so forth. As such, Section 215 orders function as general
warrants allowing officials to rifle through the records of any
American without the need to show probable cause as delimited by the
Fourth Amendment.

The ACLU?s Jameel Jaffer agreed that the NSA?s dragnet collection of
phone records violates the relevance standard of Section 215. He also
argued that it violated Americans? reasonable expectations of privacy
under the Fourth Amendment and, less obviously, our right of free
association under the First Amendment. If people think they are
watched by government agents, he explained, they may curtail innocuous
contacts with others out of fear that government functionaries will
misinterpret or abuse information about their relationships. David
Lieber, privacy counsel for Google, struck another First Amendment
note, expressing frustration over the government?s prior restraint of
speech when it forbade his company (and others) from disclosing even
summary statistics on how much information on its customers the feds
were requiring it to turn over.

Paul Rosenzweig, a former deputy assistant for policy at the
Department of Homeland Security, is much more sanguine about NSA
domestic surveillance. He offered a very nice demonstration, produced
by journalist Kieran Healy based on David Hackett Fischer?s biography
of Paul Revere, showing how metadata on various club memberships would
have identified Paul Revere to the British authorities as the center
of terrorist network in late-18th-century Boston. That may sound
alarming to you, but to Rosenzweig the NSA?s use of such relational
data-mining is ?relevant? to an investigation.

The second afternoon panel focused on techniques to protect data from
federal surveillance. First, the good news: Jim Burrows of Silent
Circle, a new company offering various encryption services, observed
that TOR, the free open source software that protects users?
anonymity, generally stands up to NSA snooping. Less happily, David
Dahl of SpiderOak, a company that offers encrypted file backup,
decried the recent revelations that the NSA had succeeded in
introducing subtle vulnerabilities by influencing the development of
encryption standards. Matt Blaze, an Internet security guru at the
University of Pennsylvania, observed that maintaining vulnerabilities
in computer code doesn?t just make it easier for the NSA to spy; it
makes it easier for the Chinese, Russians, and Iranians to spy, and
for Internet criminals to steal data and cause other havoc.

Burrows discussed the case of Lavabit, an encrypted email service
apparently used by Snowden. The NSA ordered Ladar Levison, the owner
of the service, to hand over data that would enable the agency to spy
on his 350,000 customers. Levison instead shut down the service,
saying that he refused ?to become complicit in crimes against the
American people.? Burrows noted that Silent Circle was also an
offering encrypted email service. Within 10 hours of learning what had
happened to Lavabit, Silent Circle shut down and purged its own
service without notice to subscribers. Burrows noted that had Silent
Circle informed its customers in advance the shutdown might have
become illegal. ?We knew for sure that someday some law enforcement
agency would order us to give them a backdoor,? said Burrows.

Burrows noted that there is no email that is currently secure against
metadata collection, although users can securely encrypt the content
of their messages. The ACLU?s Chris Soghoian added that the laws of
physics make it impossible to shield the location data emitted by
mobile phones. SpiderOak?s Dahl speculated that some peer-to-peer
communications protocols with built-in cryptography might make secure
email possible.

The final panel considered what reforms are necessary to rein in
domestic surveillance. Cato Senior Fellow John Mueller demolished the
claim that the NSA?s domestic spying has done much to protect
Americans against terrorism. NSA chief Alexander claimed in June that
mass telephone surveillance program had thwarted 54 terrorist plots.
In October, Alexander admitted in a Senate hearing that the telephone
dragnet?s effect was much more modest: It may have helped in one or
maybe two cases.

?The Obama administration has doubled down on this program and doesn?t
believe that it has done anything wrong,? despaired Michelle
Richardson, legislative counsel for the ACLU. Center for Democracy and
Technology senior counsel Kevin Bankston remarked that it is ?insane?
that Google?s privacy counselor David Lieber ?had to dance around the
question of receiving requests from the NSA.? People are free to say
they haven?t received such requests, but they?re not allowed to tell
anyone when they have.

?The NSA has turned the Internet into a giant surveillance platform,?
declared renowned tech guru and Harvard Berkman Center fellow Bruce
Schneier. Metadata collection that tells spies where a person went,
who he spoke to, what he bought, and what he saw equals surveillance.
?When the president says, ?It?s just metadata,?? he means, ?Don?t
worry, you?re all under surveillance all of the time.? Schneier argued
that we need to make the Internet secure against all attackers. ?A
secure Internet is in everyone?s interests,? said Schneier. ?We are
all better off if no one can do this kind of bulk surveillance.
Fundamentally, security is more important than surveillance.? The
panel agreed that it is critical to pass legislation preventing the
government from mandating that companies build spy-friendly
insecurities into their systems.

The final keynote speaker, Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R?Wisc.),
outlined the contours of his Uniting and Strengthening America by
Fulfilling Rights and Ending Eavesdropping, Dragnet-Collection, and
Online Monitoring (USA FREEDOM) Act. His bill would limit the
collection of phone records to known terrorist suspects, force the
Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Courts to disclose surveillance
policies, establish a constitutional privacy advocate in that court?s
proceedings, and permit companies to disclose NSA information
requests.

At the end of conference, the one person whose efforts made it
possible to for new Congressional reform efforts aimed at reining in
the surveillance state went largely unacknowledged. And so, again:
Thank you, Edward Snowden.

Disclosure: I am still a card-carrying member of the ACLU.


----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://ativel.com http://postbiota.org
AC894EC5: 38A5 5F46 A4FF 59B8 336B  47EE F46E 3489 AC89 4EC5


From eugen at leitl.org  Sat Oct 19 11:34:32 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 13:34:32 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
 "asinine"
In-Reply-To: <006501cecc8e$794ffa70$6befef50$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
 <CAPGs0J_oJanEbfc0E_ivYcxCswk1zco=Lz5vrEYyqfc9pSjvew@mail.gmail.com>
 <02a401ceca96$cd3cc4a0$67b64de0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3e1AwH2w5d6eKvY6_ZfHu-VXK3DDEHo7VaDO=QVnRJ6g@mail.gmail.com>
 <037201cecb8c$4428af20$cc7a0d60$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv0nUgF8CmeVvZpZw6PmxxCJU3OB_61DW5moP9BehRvfsg@mail.gmail.com>
 <011501cecc66$91421280$b3c63780$@att.net>
 <006501cecc8e$794ffa70$6befef50$@att.net>
Message-ID: <20131019113432.GS10405@leitl.org>

On Fri, Oct 18, 2013 at 10:45:51PM -0700, spike wrote:

> .I can't imagine what it is.  Google claims there is about 150 million
> ounces of gold in Ft. Knox, so that is about a couple hundred billion

Nobody knows how much gold is in Ft Knox. My guess is: very little.
You might remember what ended Bretton Woods on 15th August 1971.
The French called the bluff.

There are some people who think they bought gold, by buying certificates.
They might even have demanded to see the gold in person, and were perhaps
even shown yellow metal bars. But this is a scam, as you will find out if
you want to take physical possession of it. Try it for yourself.
(If you raise enough stink, especially involving the press, the bad
publicity will eventually outweigh issuing massively oversubscribed
metal, and you will get it. But not before).

Even if they own physical metal, remember Roosevelt's Executive Order
6102, on 5th April 1933. You only own it if it's entirely off the record.

> dollars right there.  If we sell that to China, we still owe them over a
> trillion dollars, but at least we offset two entire months of borrowing at
> the current rate, TWO WHOLE MONTHS of this current Bacchanalian spendfest!
> Just hand over the damn gold.  We could sell off that, wouldn't even need to

I'm afraid there is nothing to hand out.

> borrow until the middle of December, possibly make it to Jingle Bells on
> that alone if we tighten the belt a bit.  Two months of our current
> lifestyle to which we have grown so fondly accustomed, just for a pile of
> useless yellow metal.

Gold is not an investment, it's a portable value store to hedge against 
blowup of fiats.

People think of ROI, the Jews who bought personal transport from smugglers
out of Nazi Germany after borders were closed thought the ROI was excellent,
considering the only alternative: becoming black smoke up the chimney.


From spike66 at att.net  Sat Oct 19 13:44:49 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 06:44:49 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <20131019113432.GS10405@leitl.org>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
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 <006501cecc8e$794ffa70$6befef50$@att.net> <20131019113432.GS10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <006901ceccd1$61ea9dc0$25bfd940$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Eugen Leitl

>...People think of ROI, the Jews who bought personal transport from
smugglers out of Nazi Germany after borders were closed thought the ROI was
excellent, considering the only alternative: becoming black smoke up the
chimney.
_______________________________________________

Ja.

I find it remarkable that Senator Ted Cruz is getting so much criticism.
Reasoning: Barack Obama commented that "...raising America's debt limit is a
sign of leadership failure."  Therefore, Cruz' fight against raising the
debt limit is a sign of leadership success.

"It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from
foreign countries to finance our government's reckless fiscal policies."
Obama, 2006

So Cruz is fighting against asking for foreign aid, and is against reckless
fiscal policies.

Mr. Obama considered raising the debt a threat to national security.  So
when Ted Cruz opposes it, he is speaking in support of national security.

As I see it, the Tea Party has constituents from everywhere along the
traditional political spectrum from far right to far left and everything in
between.  The de facto leader is saying the same thing now that Barack Obama
was saying seven years ago.  So the one feller who said it then was elected
president and the other feller who is saying the same thing now is having
his life threatened.

What changed?

spike






From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Oct 19 14:18:25 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 15:18:25 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <006901ceccd1$61ea9dc0$25bfd940$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAL_armib7LHSZ6ZBGa+EzbBc+F2dFMV+htZFb54Xd5bxmt1z6w@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 2:44 PM, spike wrote:
> As I see it, the Tea Party has constituents from everywhere along the
> traditional political spectrum from far right to far left and everything in
> between.  The de facto leader is saying the same thing now that Barack Obama
> was saying seven years ago.  So the one feller who said it then was elected
> president and the other feller who is saying the same thing now is having
> his life threatened.
>
> What changed?
>
>

Obama got elected, saw the secret set of accounts, was briefed on how
bad the situation actually is and the approaching cataclysm. So he was
told that there was no option but to try and keep things going as long
as possible, while preparing as best he could against domestic
insurrection and foreign attacks.

It is easy to talk the talk until faced with having to walk the walk
and not only never get elected again, but force years of suffering on
the country. Yes, postponing the evil day makes the evil day far
worse. But the current leaders hope that they will be well clear of
the mess by the time it does arrive.

A crisis postponed means it is somebody else's problem. That seems to
be the way cities, states and most of the world is currently
operating.

BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Sat Oct 19 15:01:17 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 08:01:17 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armib7LHSZ6ZBGa+EzbBc+F2dFMV+htZFb54Xd5bxmt1z6w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <00b801ceccdc$10f842e0$32e8c8a0$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
"asinine"

On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 2:44 PM, spike wrote:
>> ...So the one feller who said it then was elected president and the other
feller who is saying the same thing now is having his life threatened.  What
changed?  spike


>...Obama got elected...

BillK, I would accept your notion, except for the following:

>... saw the secret set of accounts...

Except that none of it is secret.  These numbers are all right out on the
table.  We have heard whispers and conspiracy theorist rumors that there is
no gold in Ft. Knox, that it has been secretly spirited away in the night
and sold.  But we can see that under the current borrowing rate, it doesn't
matter all that much whether it has or has not.  Its total value is a couple
months of borrowing, eight weeks.  We spent more time that that arguing over
borrowing more money.  None of this is secret.

>...was briefed on how bad the situation actually is...

We are all briefed now on how bad the situation actually is.  Once we get to
where we are borrowing a fully stocked nuclear aircraft carrier every five
days, it scarcely matters if we are briefed that the real situation is
really a nuke carrier every two days.

None of this is secret however.  Anyone who is paying attention sees that
more people successfully signed up for a one-way trip to Mars than have
signed up for the new heath care entitlement for which our government nearly
defaulted in order to sustain.  Is the real situation really worse than
that?  If so, even I would switch sides.  
  
>... and the approaching cataclysm...

At least that would explain why  the government is buying up all that ammo.

>... So he was told that there was no option but to try and keep things
going as long as possible, while preparing as best he could against domestic
insurrection and foreign attacks...

If that were the case, I have a hard time explaining why he didn't agree to
delay the opt-out penalty for not buying health insurance, or offer some
compromise which would buy them a few more weeks.

>...A crisis postponed means it is somebody else's problem. That seems to be
the way cities, states and most of the world is currently operating.  BillK

Ja.  BillK, how are the Brits doing?  Are you guys balancing your books
these days?  Eugen, how are the Germans doing?  Anders, Swedes?  Italians
present?  Where did all our ExI-talians go?  You guys used to chatter a lot
here, we enjoyed that.  Are you guys balancing the books?  Anyone anywhere
else?  Do chime in here please.

I have some practical optimism to apply in this case however.

Right now we are borrowing a nuke carrier a week, but we are getting in
return container ships of cheapy manufactured goods from China, which goes
to stock our Walmarts.  And everywhere else for that matter.  Soon they will
tell us "No more borrow, Round Eyes.  You pay now."  Then we will be mostly
without factories, for we don't do that kind of dirty work much in this
pristine country.  So I can imagine we will get extremely creative with
making do on the stuff we currently have, analogous to the way Cuba is so
masterful at keeping 50s and 60s era American cars running all this time,
after the communist revolution stopped imports of those items.  With the
help of the internet, we can trade used stuff far more efficiently and do
with far less than we have now, while still having a decent life.

spike



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sat Oct 19 15:47:26 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 11:47:26 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <011501cecc66$91421280$b3c63780$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAJPayv1D0nYJe0UFWgLBbF1H-Bnx5Z8yc_EiS9dVYLKLs=O=Zw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 18, 2013 at 9:00 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> Etc.  John, it is much easier to paint your political adversaries as
> crazy and stupid than it is to deal with their contentions.
>

Yes indeed. When you have hard evidence that your adversary is crazy it's
easy to paint him as crazy.

> Economics and biology are two completely different disciplines.  Many
> biologists are clued in on economics either.
>

The primary problem is that Tea Party members are so ignorant that they
don't even know they're ignorant. And even though it's not their field I
believe most biologists know that the earth goes around the sun and not the
other way round, and a expert on genetics won't start pontificating on the
nature of Dark Energy. But the Tea Party thinks it is a expert on
everything. And it's not just biology and economics, Tea Party politicians
have demonstrated that they are ignoramuses about the physical sciences too
(the Big Bang theory is lies straight from the pit of Hell) and they know
even less about economics or even basic human behavior (government default
would calm the markets) than they do about science.

> My contention is that we cannot tell for instance which wing is Ted Cruz.
>  He could be far left as well as far right.
>

I don't care if he's right or left, I care that Ted Cruz is not rational.

>  Recall that the two farthest left members of congress in 2004 and 2006
> were the strongest voices against raising the debt limit, Charlie Rangel
> and Barack Obama.
>

I'm not here to defend Obama, and all politicians engage in political
theater, but this time it was a pointless 24 billion dollar production that
came within 90 minutes of global catastrophe.

 > Printing money and borrowing wealth are the same thing.
>

I know.

> The debt limit is all about how much money the government can issue.
>

I know.

> The government needs to borrow real wealth and stay within its borrowing
> limit in order to print money.
>

I know.

 > Of course they could theoretically print money without borrowing wealth.
>  This has been tried, in Weimar Germany and more recently Zimbabwe.
>

And there we have it, fears about inflation, the GOP has been predicting
it's going to show up any second now for almost 10 years, but there is
still nothing. I'm not saying such a thing is not theoretically possible,
but inflation is not the only disaster that can infect a economy, deflation
can be just as bad or worse. Starting in 1929 and throughout the 1930's
just like now there was not even a hint of inflation, but everybody was
still miserable. It would be simplistic to say that printing money is
always good or always bad, it depends on circumstances and right now the
danger of deflation is greater than that of inflation.

> why not sell that new aircraft carrier, the John F. Kennedy?  That one is
> said to have cost about 12 billion, so we can assume it would sell for
> about the same.
>

Great idea, we could sell the aircraft carrier to Al Qaeda and the 12
billion dollars would be enough to keep the government running for almost 8
hours.


> >The fact that there is a Tea Party is what keeps the world having some
> faith in the dollar.
>

THAT IS RIDICULOUS! Tea Party hillbillies have turned the USA into a
laughing stock in the eyes of the world, or at least they would be laughing
if they weren't screaming in terror as if they just saw an infant holding a
loaded handgun.


> > You are saying the Tea Party is made up of crazy fools
>

Yes.

> therefore their arguments can be safely dismissed.


Yes.

> The Tea Party is gently suggesting that we cannot sustain the endless
> borrowing and overspending the way we have been doing for at least 14 years.
>

Yes, among other even stupider things that is what the Tea Party is saying.

> Does that mean you believe we can sustain the borrow and spend
> indefinitely?
>

Probably. The government of the USA has been in debt every year since 1835,
and every single president since Herbert Hoover has increased the amount of
debt. And except for 4 years the government has spent more money than it
took in every year since 1970. And yet the country is still here, and as
long as some intelligence is used, that is to say as long as the Tea Party
is not involved, I see no reason this can't continue.

  John K Clark
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From eugen at leitl.org  Sat Oct 19 15:52:36 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 17:52:36 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
 "asinine"
In-Reply-To: <00b801ceccdc$10f842e0$32e8c8a0$@att.net>
References: <02a401ceca96$cd3cc4a0$67b64de0$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <20131019155236.GI10405@leitl.org>

On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 08:01:17AM -0700, spike wrote:

> Ja.  BillK, how are the Brits doing?  Are you guys balancing your books
> these days?  Eugen, how are the Germans doing?  Anders, Swedes?  Italians

The Germans are only doing well in comparison to rest of Europe.

Krautlandia a low-wage country with about zero domestic demand and rising
income inequality, entirely reliant on exports, and some of the 
exports (e.g. non-EV cars) are known to experience problem in future. 
If exports collapse, Germany will be hurting very badly, very soon.

There are locations like Norway or Switzerland which are doing quite
well.

> present?  Where did all our ExI-talians go?  You guys used to chatter a lot
> here, we enjoyed that.  Are you guys balancing the books?  Anyone anywhere
> else?  Do chime in here please.


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sat Oct 19 15:55:39 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 09:55:39 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbKu5HFEAAmDupSXNDTfpMaOn4PP_0=EwZ=-WVR-3RHfxg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZUoKOs=D5Nojn=udJa_Xp_-r0z10SOxDXjRJSZ2MAjHw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 18, 2013 at 2:16 PM, Mike Dougherty <msd001 at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Fri, Oct 18, 2013 at 4:13 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> It is idiotic for the president to stand up and say we don't have a
>> spending problem.
>>
>
> Isn't that like the alcoholic that says "I don't have a drinking problem,
> I rather enjoy it."
>

It's more like the alcoholic saying, "I don't have a drinking problem, I
have a pissing problem. You can't expect me not to piss after drinking all
that beer!"

-Kelly
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sat Oct 19 16:26:10 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 12:26:10 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <006501cecc8e$794ffa70$6befef50$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAJPayv1Pjpwgs8pkreEGw4Fphhc1v-vgyRGp_5+CSZXu=nH4hQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 1:45 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:>

> Google claims there is about 150 million ounces of gold in Ft. Knox, so
> that is about a couple hundred billion dollars right there.  If we sell
> that to China, we still owe them over a trillion dollars,
>

So if we follow your advice overnight gold becomes worthless and the dollar
becomes worthless and everybody lives happily ever after. I don't think
so.

> TWO WHOLE MONTHS of this current Bacchanalian spendfest!
>

And that should tell you something right there, gold is nowhere near the
most important means of economic exchange, the dollar is, that is to say
the faith that the government of the USA will do what it promises to do,
like pay its creditors when it says it will. As I said money is a very
abstract thing, the only thing holding it together is faith and trust,  and
it is this faith and trust that you are determined to destroy. But they all
lived happily ever after.

> Remind me again John how those foolish evil stupid congressional Tea
> Party members are
>

OK, these facts can not be repeated too often:

TEA PARTY member and presidential candidate congressman Michele Bachman
criticized the only smart thing Governor Rick Perry ever did, requiring all
sixth-grade girls to get vaccinated against HPV, the virus that is the
leading cause of cervical cancer. Perry later apologized for being smart
and promised never to do it again.  Oh and the flu vaccine causes mental
retardation too.

TEA PARTY member and presidential candidate Senator Rick Santorum proposed
a amendment that would require the teaching of creationism in schools.

TEA PARTY member and potential presidential candidate Senator Marco Rubio
said:

"Whether the Earth was created in 7 days, or 7 actual eras, I?m not sure
we?ll ever be able to answer that. It?s one of the great mysteries.? (he
doesn?t even know the Bible, it says 6 days not 7)

TEA PARTY member Governor and presidential candidate Rick Perry bragged:

?[Evolution is just] a theory that's out there. I am a firm believer in
intelligent design as a matter of faith and intellect. In Texas we teach
both Creationism and evolution.?

TEA PARTY member and potential presidential candidate Senator Rand Paul
thinks prayer should be in public schools and refuses to dismiss the idea
that the Earth is only 9000 years old.

TEA PARTY member and presidential candidate congressman Michele Bachman
said:

"There are hundreds and hundreds of scientists, many of them holding Nobel
Prizes, who believe in intelligent design.?

TEA PARTY congressman (and member of the House SCIENCE committee!!) Paul
Brown said:

"All that stuff I was taught about evolution and embryology and the Big
Bang Theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of Hell. And it's lies
to try to keep me and all the folks who were taught that from understanding
that they need a savior. You see, there are a lot of scientific data that
I've found out as a scientist that actually show that this is really a
young Earth. I don't believe that the Earth's but about 9,000 years old. I
believe it was created in six days as we know them. That's what the Bible
says.?

TEA PARTY Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell said:

"American scientific companies are cross-breeding humans and animals and
coming up with mice with fully functioning human brains. You know what,
evolution is a myth. Why aren't monkeys still evolving into humans??

  John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Sat Oct 19 16:18:34 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 09:18:34 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1D0nYJe0UFWgLBbF1H-Bnx5Z8yc_EiS9dVYLKLs=O=Zw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <010701cecce6$dc95c3f0$95c14bd0$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of John Clark
>.

 

>> You are saying the Tea Party is made up of crazy fools


>Yes.

>> therefore their arguments can be safely dismissed. 

 

>Yes.

John, even if they are wrong, they appear neither crazy nor foolish to me,
but merely wrong, if they are wrong.  I suspect they are right on the borrow
and spend notion, which is their only official position.

>>. The Tea Party is gently suggesting that we cannot sustain the endless
borrowing and overspending the way we have been doing for at least 14 years.
Does that mean you believe we can sustain the borrow and spend indefinitely?


>.Probably. The government of the USA has been in debt every year since
1835.

 

Yes, the 'so far so good' argument.

 

>. as long as the Tea Party is not involved.

 

Ja.  We can call that: 'Since they get it all wrong on biology, we are
compelled to not just dismiss but assume the opposite of whatever they say
on economics' argument.  

 

Side note: the Tea Party has no position on evolution.  There may be TP
proponents of creationism, but the TP has no position on it.  The TP has no
position on abortion, drug laws, minority rights, none of that stuff.

 

>. I see no reason this can't continue.  John K Clark

 

Very good then, we have both clearly stated our positions.  The Tea Party
says our current rate of borrow and spend cannot continue.  You say it can,
so long as the Tea Party is not involved, since they believe in creationism,
etc.

 

We can refute their views on biology, but have not on economics.  It looks
to me like this is one case where the suspected creationists got it right on
government borrowing and spending.  

 

spike


 

 

 

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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sat Oct 19 16:34:22 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 10:34:22 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1D0nYJe0UFWgLBbF1H-Bnx5Z8yc_EiS9dVYLKLs=O=Zw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAJPayv1D0nYJe0UFWgLBbF1H-Bnx5Z8yc_EiS9dVYLKLs=O=Zw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwYuXDZsc1An2Gy61vSuB2f1XpL60VJz-wmcWvVC3eFDcw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 9:47 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Fri, Oct 18, 2013 at 9:00 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
> > Etc.  John, it is much easier to paint your political adversaries as
>> crazy and stupid than it is to deal with their contentions.
>>
>
> Yes indeed. When you have hard evidence that your adversary is crazy it's
> easy to paint him as crazy.
>

John, please back off the inflammatory rhetoric so that we can have a fact
based, rational conversation.


> > Economics and biology are two completely different disciplines.  Many
>> biologists are clued in on economics either.
>>
>
> The primary problem is that Tea Party members are so ignorant that they
> don't even know they're ignorant.
>

I am a Tea Party member. Do you think I'm ignorant? I don't believe in
creationism. The Tea party is dedicated to ONE thing T.axed E.nough
A.lready. We believe in lower taxation, followed by a decrease in
government spending.

Just because there are some creationists that are members of the Tea Party
doesn't make the Tea Party about creationism. It's in the name, lower taxes
is what we demand. Lowering the debt and deficit are helpful in lowering
taxes long term, assuming we ever intend on paying any of that back.

You mentioned earlier that we've borrowed money for nearly 200 years. And
that's true, but whenever we've borrowed money against future inflation,
it's been a small enough amount that growth made it later seem
insignificant. With the coming shifts in energy, can we cavalierly accept
that the growth of the US economy will make 16 trillion dollars seem
insignificant? That is a pretty large bet on growth, especially when the
president sees himself as managing the equalization of the United States
with the rest of the world. American exceptionalism isn't part of his view
of the planet.


> > My contention is that we cannot tell for instance which wing is Ted
>> Cruz.  He could be far left as well as far right.
>>
>
> I don't care if he's right or left, I care that Ted Cruz is not rational.
>

Or perhaps on economic and government growth issues he is the ONLY one who
is rational. You can't possibly think he's more wrong on those issues than
the entire rest of congress.


> >  Recall that the two farthest left members of congress in 2004 and 2006
> were the strongest voices against raising the debt limit, Charlie Rangel
> and Barack Obama.
>
> I'm not here to defend Obama, and all politicians engage in political
> theater, but this time it was a pointless 24 billion dollar production that
> came within 90 minutes of global catastrophe.
>

And what was that if not political theater? They weren't really going to
default on the debt. They were just making a point. I never heard Ted Cruz
or Mike Lee say that defaulting on the debt would be a good idea.


> >The fact that there is a Tea Party is what keeps the world having some
>> faith in the dollar.
>>
>
> THAT IS RIDICULOUS! Tea Party hillbillies have turned the USA into a
> laughing stock in the eyes of the world, or at least they would be laughing
> if they weren't screaming in terror as if they just saw an infant holding a
> loaded handgun.
>

This could be debated. China recently downgraded the US again.

Again, you are conflating right wing religious zealots with the people who
just want lower taxes and smaller government. They are NOT always the same.
I give myself as a prime example.


> > You are saying the Tea Party is made up of crazy fools
>>
>
> Yes.
>

Gee, thanks.


> > The Tea Party is gently suggesting that we cannot sustain the endless
>> borrowing and overspending the way we have been doing for at least 14 years.
>>
>
> Yes, among other even stupider things that is what the Tea Party is saying.
>

How is that stupid?


> > Does that mean you believe we can sustain the borrow and spend
> indefinitely?
>
> Probably. The government of the USA has been in debt every year since
> 1835, and every single president since Herbert Hoover has increased the
> amount of debt. And except for 4 years the government has spent more money
> than it took in every year since 1970. And yet the country is still here,
> and as long as some intelligence is used, that is to say as long as the Tea
> Party is not involved, I see no reason this can't continue.
>

It's the level at which we're doing it now that is of concern.

This chart shows the situation really clearly.
http://bit.ly/19TizJy

For the Tea Party, the elbow of greatest concern is that at the beginning
of Bush 43. The hilarious thing about this graph from my point of view is
that Ronald Reagan was responsible for turning the whole ship about. Sigh.

-Kelly
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From anders at aleph.se  Sat Oct 19 17:12:55 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 18:12:55 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
 "asinine"
In-Reply-To: <20131019155236.GI10405@leitl.org>
References: <02a401ceca96$cd3cc4a0$67b64de0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3e1AwH2w5d6eKvY6_ZfHu-VXK3DDEHo7VaDO=QVnRJ6g@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAJPayv0nUgF8CmeVvZpZw6PmxxCJU3OB_61DW5moP9BehRvfsg@mail.gmail.com>
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 <006501cecc8e$794ffa70$6befef50$@att.net> <20131019113432.GS10405@leitl.org>
 <006901ceccd1$61ea9dc0$25bfd940$@att.net>
 <CAL_armib7LHSZ6ZBGa+EzbBc+F2dFMV+htZFb54Xd5bxmt1z6w@mail.gmail.com>
 <00b801ceccdc$10f842e0$32e8c8a0$@att.net> <20131019155236.GI10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <5262BD97.1090009@aleph.se>

On 19/10/2013 16:52, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 08:01:17AM -0700, spike wrote:
>
>> Ja.  BillK, how are the Brits doing?  Are you guys balancing your books
>> these days?  Eugen, how are the Germans doing?  Anders, Swedes?  Italians
> The Germans are only doing well in comparison to rest of Europe.

Half-full vs. half-empty glasses. Sweden is doing decently by European 
standards, the UK as usual underperforming a bit but nowhere near the 
French or Mediterranean levels. It is a matter of muddling through.

I think one can argue that the EU as a political institution is pretty 
ineffective and most euro governments too complacent. But they are not 
actively crazy, at least not in the northern half of Europe. As the 
Economist put it, at least they vaguely talk about solutions rather than 
just make up things that will not work at all. There is no political 
deadlock in the same way as in the US.

Will be visiting Norway next week, it might be fun seeing how the 
successful half lives. (I will talk transhumanism at an atheism youth camp)

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sat Oct 19 17:52:12 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 13:52:12 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwYuXDZsc1An2Gy61vSuB2f1XpL60VJz-wmcWvVC3eFDcw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
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On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 12:34 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>wrote:

> John, please back off the inflammatory rhetoric
>

No. I will continue to call a spade a spade. And it's a little ironic that
the default will calm the market and the embryology is a lie from the fiery
pit of hell people are complaining about inflammatory rhetoric.

>> I don't care if he's right or left, I care that Ted Cruz is not rational.
>
>
> > Or perhaps on economic and government growth issues he is the ONLY one
> who is rational.
>

And perhaps pigs will fly, but probably not.

> you can't possibly think he's more wrong on those issues than the entire
> rest of congress.
>

Oh but I can!


> > I never heard Ted Cruz or Mike Lee say that defaulting on the debt would
> be a good idea.
>

Actions speak louder than words, 90 minutes before default would have
devastated the world Ted Cruz voted to allow that catastrophe to happen.
And I can never forgive him for that. Never.

> They weren't really going to default on the debt. They were just making a
> point.
>

No, it was far far more than that. After the vote and sanity prevailed Ted
Cruz lambasted his fellow republicans that didn't vote as he did and made
it clear that the Tea Party would finance loonier opponents to challenge
them in the Republican primary races.

> I am a Tea Party member.
>

And I too have a confession to make, although I'm embarrassed to admit it
I'm still a registered Republican. In fact, I actually agree with about
half of what the Tea Party says, the problem is that in the other half
they're not just wrong they're BAT SHIT CRAZY WRONG.

> you are conflating right wing religious zealots with the people who just
> want lower taxes and smaller government. They are NOT always the same. I
> give myself as a prime example.
>

I want lower taxes and smaller government too, but the way to do that is to
vote to buy less stuff, not to vote to refuse to pay for stuff you've
already voted to buy. And if I don't get my way I'm not going to try my
very best to set off a economic H bomb that would destroy the world as the
hillbilly Tea Party did.

> It's the level at which we're doing it now that is of concern.
> This chart shows the situation really clearly.
> http://bit.ly/19TizJy
>

That chart is really not a very good argument that debt is bad, according
to it the largest percentage of debt to GDP happen in 1946, just before the
1950's boon times and the largest increase in economic activity in history.
And the second largest economic boon happened during the Clinton years, a
time of increasing debt.

  John k Clark
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From anders at aleph.se  Sat Oct 19 22:12:11 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 23:12:11 +0100
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
In-Reply-To: <525F182E.8060601@aleph.se>
References: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <525BBDB8.5060308@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjjpC9UB8iyqtjvAQjRdo4Q30xQTkeVq1V1m7J3+iK3-Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <525BD350.5010909@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armh9=+PjG4Ush9hMMD2u-qvRZ+BhRnFwOSJdD4N=vVTsHA@mail.gmail.com>
 <525F182E.8060601@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <526303BB.1040601@aleph.se>

Some updated runs with my model:
http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2013/10/the_morons_are_marching_rather_slowly.html

-- 
Anders Sandberg,
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Faculty of Philosophy
Oxford University



From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Oct 20 02:39:19 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 20:39:19 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wUADENNkZGUBNEQG60UTZa+vPEB5iVm8czAZuZ6HhvmYA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20131018154844.GG10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZVztFVLiXzoDzvwh6hkMZwWhd0kQeMcRmR4pebupkdTQ@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZ3Lk-PHkB7kVvnsCKVZBmwD-ZGX2xwqakHsKYxAOOhVA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Oct 18, 2013 at 3:03 PM, Max More <max at maxmore.com> wrote:

> I'm pretty sure it's correct to say that Kriorus has nothing like Alcor's
> Patient Care Trust Fund. They couldn't, with prices that low. That means
> they have no money dedicated to keeping you cryopreserved. I believe they
> are entirely dependent on sufficient new business to keep them in operation
> and their patients in storage. If they keep growing fast enough, perhaps
> that could work. If not, it will not be sustainable.
>

I assumed that there had to be hidden costs.


> Kelly, I presume you know that you can use life insurance to pay for
> cryopreservation? You can get a neurocryopreservation with Alcor for $80K
> (which includes standby, stabilization, and transport). If you already have
> or can get a policy for something like that amount ($100K may be the
> minimum), you're covered.
>

I am aware of the life insurance approach. I have extremely significant
cash flow issues at the moment. Paying for dinner comes before paying for
cryopreservation... :-)

That being said, even if I had the money, I have not entirely bought into
cryopreservation for myself, even though I totally support others having
the option and I believe it is a reasonable thing to do and real science.
It's not that I don't believe future technology may be able to retrieve
cryonauts, I'm just not entirely convinced that enough of the
microstructures are preserved with current approaches. In addition, I'm not
entirely sure I want to experience the future in a big jump. It's scary
enough getting there one day at a time... LOL.

I reserve the right to change my mind once I have enough money to avoid the
Obamacare penalty for not having health insurance.

-Kelly
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From spike66 at att.net  Sun Oct 20 03:29:31 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 20:29:31 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1Pjpwgs8pkreEGw4Fphhc1v-vgyRGp_5+CSZXu=nH4hQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
 <01d801ceca8c$9449cda0$bcdd68e0$@att.net>
 <CAPGs0J_oJanEbfc0E_ivYcxCswk1zco=Lz5vrEYyqfc9pSjvew@mail.gmail.com>
 <02a401ceca96$cd3cc4a0$67b64de0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv3e1AwH2w5d6eKvY6_ZfHu-VXK3DDEHo7VaDO=QVnRJ6g@mail.gmail.com>
 <037201cecb8c$4428af20$cc7a0d60$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv0nUgF8CmeVvZpZw6PmxxCJU3OB_61DW5moP9BehRvfsg@mail.gmail.com>
 <011501cecc66$91421280$b3c63780$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <025301cecd44$97857860$c6906920$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of John Clark
Subject: Re: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
"asinine"

 

>.As I said money is a very abstract thing, the only thing holding it
together is faith and trust,  and it is this faith and trust that you are
determined to destroy. .  John K Clark

John, just knowing that I have the awesome power to singlehandedly destroy
the world's economies with merely a skeptical attitude gives me a nearly
irresistible urge to make comments such as Bwaaaaahahahahahaaaa.   

https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTOFiT9fVOJY_dwipakntwO
1zeAfXBYj04SE1npjOD25jMyAT-x6QIt is such a wild head rush, I suddenly
understand and sympathize with Simon Bar Sinister.

 

 

 

This world must not depend on money which has value based only on trust and
faith.  We need money that represents actual wealth, based on evidence and
frequent verification by exchange.  Otherwise it enables whichever nation
which mints the faith-cash to borrow real wealth at any arbitrary rate based
on nothing.  This is a form of unchecked power, which always results in
unchecked corruption and eventual chaos.

Your counter-evidence is in pointing out the attitude of some Tea Party
candidates on a perfectly irrelevant and unrelated topic, creationism.  The
Tea Party holds no position on that subject.  You have produced no evidence
to convince me that we can continue to borrow three billion dollars a day
and sustain that indefinitely.  That idea is to economics as creationism is
to biology.  I am still not buying that notion.  

My shocking theory: all governments and all nations must live within their
means.  All governments must balance their books, including that fortunate
nation which mints the world's favorite currency.  Otherwise it does not
stay the world's favorite currency.

spike

 

 





 

 

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From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Oct 20 06:46:37 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 23:46:37 -0700
Subject: [ExI] [Hplus-talk] Working toward an Optimal Future
In-Reply-To: <20131018143153.GY10405@leitl.org>
References: <20131018143153.GY10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTqppPKXcfi73qhjdpCS4AcJEPjkQPQneLjUFKRwnrrLQ@mail.gmail.com>

Unfortunately, the value of yet another community for mere talk is low and
potentially negative.  There are many, and adding one more disperses what
unity we have.  It would be superior to take one of the established forums
and promote it more widely.

Further, it is mere talk.  There is no connection to action - no assistance
for, once the talk has come up with a plan of action, implementing it.
There are already many well-known things we could do right now, if we had
the resources.  The energy to put this forum together could be better
spent, researching the ideas (on existing forums) and finding ways to, for
instance, actually get a 3D printer into the hands of one who proposes to
adapt it to use recycled plastics...but perhaps can not afford their own 3D
printer.  (Or better yet, to design those last few bits of 3D printers that
3D printers can't yet print.)


On Fri, Oct 18, 2013 at 7:31 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> ----- Forwarded message from Magnus Ulstein <magnus.ulstein at gmail.com>
> -----
>
> Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2013 15:44:41 +0200
> From: Magnus Ulstein <magnus.ulstein at gmail.com>
> To: hplus-talk at list.humanityplus.org
> Subject: [Hplus-talk] Working toward an Optimal Future
> Message-ID: <
> CAGSNXr3SuJj8q7UiSERGCq3n7xeCCq4emJkDmY36Y_4Aix0Eag at mail.gmail.com>
>
> If you are on this mailing list, chances are you?ve given at least some
> thought into how you would prefer the future to turn out. And chances are
> reality isn?t quite living up to your expectations. So the question we have
> to ask ourselves is: What can we do about it? How can we nudge
> transhumanity on to a path that leads to a more optimal future? And just as
> importantly: what does a more optimal future even mean?
>
> So, what can we do about it? Well, there are maybe a few thousand of you
> who receive this email. That?s probably enough of a community to do
> something. And elsewhere on the internet, net communities like LessWrong
> and the Lifeboat Foundation are working to prevent some pretty nasty
> futures. In another corner of the internet, environmentalists and
> socialists are discussing how to prevent a corporation controlled future
> from two very different angles. Environmentalist movements oppose genetic
> modification in general, thinking only of terminator seeds and genetic
> diversity while transhumanist movements support genetic modification in
> general, thinking about the end of hereditary disease and a new generation
> of transhumans.
>
> As I see it, the main problem we have is simply this: those of us who think
> seriously about the future aren?t talking to each other. At least not
> enough. There are millions of people out there working towards a brighter
> future, and we aren?t coordinating. And because we lock ourselves in
> different mailing lists, on different web forums, we miss out on the ideas
> that could be born from our interaction.
>
> We have a lot we can learn from each other. Imagine the Green movement
> combining with the Maker movement to produce 3d printers using recycled
> plastic. Imagine transhumanist socialism, based on raising everyone up
> rather than forcing everyone down to the lowest common denominator. Imagine
> open sourced cybernetic implants.  Who knows what good ideas could emerge
> if we could just talk together.
>
> Some colleagues and myself have put together a website where all futurists
> and people who care about the future (but do not identify themselves as
> futurist) can discuss the relevant topics and hopefully find novel
> solutions through combining ideas that one wouldn?t normally think to
> combine.
>
> Hence this mail. Humanity+ is perhaps one of the largest and best
> established future interested groups out there, and frankly I?m not sure
> we?d be able to pull it off without you. Your participation in this grand
> experiment would help us make a more Optimal Future for everyone. In
> return, we can offer a refreshing change of perspective and a look at the
> bigger picture on where we are headed.
>
> I hope to see you there.
>
> http://optimalfuture.org/
>
> _______________________________________________
> Hplus-talk mailing list
> Hplus-talk at list.humanityplus.org
> http://lists.list.humanityplus.org/mailman/listinfo/hplus-talk
>
>
> ----- End forwarded message -----
> --
> Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
> ______________________________________________________________
> ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://ativel.com http://postbiota.org
> AC894EC5: 38A5 5F46 A4FF 59B8 336B  47EE F46E 3489 AC89 4EC5
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From eugen at leitl.org  Sun Oct 20 09:09:55 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 11:09:55 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZ3Lk-PHkB7kVvnsCKVZBmwD-ZGX2xwqakHsKYxAOOhVA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20131018154844.GG10405@leitl.org>
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Message-ID: <20131020090955.GX10405@leitl.org>

On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 08:39:19PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:

> I am aware of the life insurance approach. I have extremely significant
> cash flow issues at the moment. Paying for dinner comes before paying for
> cryopreservation... :-)

I'm not yet signed up, either. I hope to sign up with our
own organisation, which is probably a decade away.

In case you have some spare time, I recommend you organize a group
of volunteers in your area, and complete a transport technician
training as well as build up some first responder capability.
 
> That being said, even if I had the money, I have not entirely bought into
> cryopreservation for myself, even though I totally support others having
> the option and I believe it is a reasonable thing to do and real science.
> It's not that I don't believe future technology may be able to retrieve
> cryonauts, I'm just not entirely convinced that enough of the
> microstructures are preserved with current approaches. In addition, I'm not

The hardest validation we have is viability, and there has been some
quite promising work on hippocampal slices.

> entirely sure I want to experience the future in a big jump. It's scary

No jump, expect to be sandboxed from reality for a while, until
you're ready.

> enough getting there one day at a time... LOL.
> 
> I reserve the right to change my mind once I have enough money to avoid the
> Obamacare penalty for not having health insurance.


From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Oct 20 10:07:00 2013
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 11:07:00 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <025301cecd44$97857860$c6906920$@att.net>
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On Sun, Oct 20, 2013 at 4:29 AM, spike wrote:
> This world must not depend on money which has value based only on trust and faith.
> We need money that represents actual wealth, based on evidence and frequent verification
> by exchange.  Otherwise it enables whichever nation which mints the faith-cash to borrow
> real wealth at any arbitrary rate based on nothing.  This is a form of unchecked power,
> which always results in unchecked corruption and eventual chaos.
>
> Your counter-evidence is in pointing out the attitude of some Tea Party candidates on
> a perfectly irrelevant and unrelated topic, creationism.  The Tea Party holds no position
> on that subject.  You have produced no evidence to convince me that we can continue
> to borrow three billion dollars a day and sustain that indefinitely.
> That idea is to economics as creationism is to biology.  I am still not buying that notion.
>
> My shocking theory: all governments and all nations must live within their means.
> All governments must balance their books, including that fortunate nation which mints
>
>

It's complicated. :) As shown by the wildly differing opinions.

Fundamentally, a nation that prints it's own fiat currency can never
go bust. It can always print enough currency to pay all the debts. So
what is the problem?

Currency hyperinflation. e.g. Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe, etc.

So how can the US continue to print so much money and avoid
hyperinflation? (up till now, anyway).

First, control what gets counted in the inflation statistics.
(Who cares if rare champagne costs 100,000 USD a bottle if it is not
in the CPI stats?).

Next, keep the income of the majority of the population low, thus
avoiding hyperinflation of the basics, like food and clothing. (Nobody
wants wheelbarrows of money to buy food).

So, where is all the US money printing going?
Look at the growing inequality in the US. The 0.1% ultra rich and
their corporations are getting richer. And the things they spend their
money on are increasing rapidly in price. Look at the multi-million
corporation deals, planes, property, islands, art objects, lobbying
costs!, etc. All things not in the CPI calculation are wildly
inflating.


So there is still a problem with US money printing. It is just not
that obvious yet what it is.
There is a huge transfer of wealth going on and the 0.1% are very
happy with the situation.


BillK


From bbenzai at yahoo.com  Sun Oct 20 12:28:49 2013
From: bbenzai at yahoo.com (Ben)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 13:28:49 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...
In-Reply-To: <mailman.1.1382270401.7134.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.1.1382270401.7134.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <5263CC81.2080400@yahoo.com>

Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

  > Kelly Anderson wrote:

 >> I'm not entirely sure I want to experience the future in a big jump. 
It's scary

 > No jump, expect to be sandboxed from reality for a while, until 
you're ready.


That's one of the biggest problems with cryonics.  Just as we have no 
practical way of telling if we live in a simulation now, anyone waking 
from suspension will have no way of telling that they're /not/ in a 
simulation.  That sandbox could be indefinite, and totally convincing.


From spike66 at att.net  Sun Oct 20 14:24:49 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 07:24:49 -0700
Subject: [ExI] [Hplus-talk] Working toward an Optimal Future
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTqppPKXcfi73qhjdpCS4AcJEPjkQPQneLjUFKRwnrrLQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20131018143153.GY10405@leitl.org>
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Message-ID: <008101cecda0$235e7f20$6a1b7d60$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Subject: Re: [ExI] [Hplus-talk] Working toward an Optimal Future

 

 

>.(Or better yet, to design those last few bits of 3D printers that 3D
printers can't yet print.).

 

I have been pondering that problem for some time.  We could imagine some
kind of multistage printing process which uses different equipment rather
than a single machine capable of printing every part of itself.  I think of
nature's own 3D printers, marvelous evolures are these.  They deposit
material a bit a time to form smooth walled hexagonal cell structures, into
which a related but differently abled beast places a third type of evolure
which develops into still another 3D printer.  Together the hive
self-repairs and self-replicates, interacting with its world in a mutually
beneficial way.

 

If there are some kind of high-melting-point metal bits needed for a 3D
printer, we can imagine using a small collection of machines made almost
entirely of 3D printed parts which includes a lathe and mill which can make
the remaining bits from castings of high temperature material.  The casts
would be made by layering deposited fused silica over a lower temperature
printable material to create a one-time-use cast.

 

I realize that wasn't a good description.  I need to spin up a powerpoint
pitch.

 

Nature has figured out how to make self-replicating machines, with a
bio-version of 3D printing as part of the process.  We should be able to do
the same or exceed that.

 

spike

 

 

 

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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Oct 20 15:11:04 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 11:11:04 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <025301cecd44$97857860$c6906920$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
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On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 11:29 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> creationism.  The Tea Party holds no position on that subject.
>

I don't know how you determine the position of the Tea Party about anything
except by looking at the position of Tea Party members, and nearly all of
the most prominent ones are creationists, and very vocal and militant ones
too. And there is a connection, if you're irrational in one subject, like
biology, I think you're probably more likely to be irrational in another
subject, like economics. At any case it would certainly be irrational and
an avoidance of reality to claim that there is not a strong connection
between the Tea Party and creationism.

> This world must not depend on money which has value based only on trust
> and faith.
>

Spike, that's the only type of money there is and it is the only reason any
form of exchange has value.

> We need money that represents actual wealth,
>

Actual wealth? Like what, atoms that contain 79 protons and 118 neutrons?
The only reason that stuff has value is that people think it has value and
they have faith that value will continue in the future. That's why it's
money, although a form of money that is not nearly as important to the
world economy as the US dollar is. And if we go along with your plan and
dump thousands of tons on the market the faith in the future value of that
stuff will be destroyed too just like the value of the dollar, and with
nothing left to use we'll be bartering 2 skinned squirrels for one can of
beans.

> based on evidence and frequent verification by exchange.
>

The US dollar has been the backbone of world exchange for nearly a century,
and you want to destroy that and make gold worthless too. And you think the
world economy can withstand those two devastating head shots and continue
on as if nothing has happened. I think there will be blood in the streets,
in fact there would be blood in the streets today if more people had voted
Ted Cruz's way on Wednesday night.

> You have produced no evidence to convince me that we can continue to
> borrow three billion dollars a day and sustain that indefinitely.
>

I don't know about indefinitely but there is plenty of evidence it's not a
immediate problem. I'm sure you believe in the wisdom of the free market as
I do, and the market is saying that the government HAS NOT printed too much
money in the last few years; inflation is the lowest it's been in many
decades, in fact it's so low it's starting to scare economists. And
interest rates are also the lowest they've been in decades which means the
free market is not expecting inflation to pick up anytime soon.

Inflation happens when there is more money in circulation than there are
things to buy, but today it's the very opposite; there are millions of
houses with nobody living in them and factories are operating far below
their maximum capacity, the lowest level in my lifetime. Right now the big
danger is deflation not inflation.


> > My shocking theory: all governments and all nations must live within
> their means.
>

That is incorrect. The government of the USA has not lived within its means
since 1835, and yet it continues.

>All governments must balance their books,
>

No government on earth balances their books nor do they need to because
they have the power to print money. True, that power can be abused but it
can be abused in 2 different ways, printing too much and printing too
little. Today there is zero evidence the USA is printing too much.

   John K Clark
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Oct 20 16:28:08 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 10:28:08 -0600
Subject: [ExI] B Movies - Worst Movie of All Time (Re: it was the best times,
 it was the best of times)
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZo=Z3uVhQz8ktZvZJARhfBvQr4ZgJGFaVJiATYuUvb2w@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 3:44 PM, Tomasz Rola <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:

> I recently started to enjoy B movies a lot.
>
> Of non-sf movies, full set of Kurosawa and Scorsese's "Taxi driver" are
> obvious buy. Then, I don't know again.
>
> This night my cable serves "The Helix Loaded", a "Matrix" B-ripoff.
>
> http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0401462/
>
> AFAIK I have never before watched a movie with imdb rating so low (1.7). I
> am so excited!
>

If you enjoy truly terrible movies, as I do, then there isn't one much
worse than Monster a Go Go. It has a terrible plot, terrible lighting, they
changed all the actors half way through without saying anything about it,
it has a lousy ending, they didn't finish the opening credits, the music
score is horrid, the editing is truly awful.

In short, if you feel that you have not contributed to the world in a
really significant way, this movie will make you feel much better, because
at least you weren't involved in making it.

The best thing you can say about Monster a Go Go is that nobody involved in
making this film ever worked in Hollywood again. Whew!

Monster a Go Go makes Ed Wood look like Stephen Spielberg. Honestly. If you
can't find a copy... hit me up.

-Kelly
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Oct 20 16:43:24 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 10:43:24 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3uXKbGveB02=XHB-M0g4S1nZQkde=K8giSDk9XQgUwZw@mail.gmail.com>
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On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 11:52 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 12:34 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>wrote:
>
> > I am a Tea Party member.
>>
>
> And I too have a confession to make, although I'm embarrassed to admit it
> I'm still a registered Republican. In fact, I actually agree with about
> half of what the Tea Party says, the problem is that in the other half
> they're not just wrong they're BAT SHIT CRAZY WRONG.
>

Again, the stuff that makes the Tea Party wrong is not officially part of
the Tea Party, but rather positions that members of the Tea Party often
take. It's a matter of being highly correlated, but not causal.

For example, the Tea Party itself says nothing about creationism that I am
aware of. Yet, a high number of Tea Party advocates believe in creationism.
The question though is can you hold your nose and be in the room with that
level of craziness in order to bring fiscal responsibility to Washington?

The Republicans and Democrats have both shown a disregard for spending
money and love growing government. We have to have a real alternative.
Personally, I'm a Libertarian, which reflects my thoughts that the Tea
Party has it right on fiscal issues, (even though defaulting on the debt is
clearly not something anyone is really going to let happen) and that the
social liberals have it right on the social and science side of the ledger.



> > you are conflating right wing religious zealots with the people who just
>> want lower taxes and smaller government. They are NOT always the same. I
>> give myself as a prime example.
>>
>
> I want lower taxes and smaller government too, but the way to do that is
> to vote to buy less stuff, not to vote to refuse to pay for stuff you've
> already voted to buy. And if I don't get my way I'm not going to try my
> very best to set off a economic H bomb that would destroy the world as the
> hillbilly Tea Party did.
>

But with the juggernaut that is Washington, how else do you slow it down
other than throwing bodies under it? This is a serious question. How the
hell do we slow it down?


>
> > It's the level at which we're doing it now that is of concern.
>> This chart shows the situation really clearly.
>> http://bit.ly/19TizJy
>>
>
> That chart is really not a very good argument that debt is bad, according
> to it the largest percentage of debt to GDP happen in 1946, just before the
> 1950's boon times and the largest increase in economic activity in history.
> And the second largest economic boon happened during the Clinton years, a
> time of increasing debt.
>
>
And yet it shows a trend towards levels of debt that we haven't experienced
since the TRUE emergency of WWII. Does anyone other then Eugen think we are
currently facing a crisis that rises to the level of WWII?

-Kelly
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From msd001 at gmail.com  Sun Oct 20 16:49:10 2013
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 12:49:10 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...
In-Reply-To: <20131020090955.GX10405@leitl.org>
References: <20131018154844.GG10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZVztFVLiXzoDzvwh6hkMZwWhd0kQeMcRmR4pebupkdTQ@mail.gmail.com>
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On Sun, Oct 20, 2013 at 5:09 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 08:39:19PM -0600, Kelly Anderson wrote:
>
> > I am aware of the life insurance approach. I have extremely significant
> > cash flow issues at the moment. Paying for dinner comes before paying for
> > cryopreservation... :-)
>
> I'm not yet signed up, either. I hope to sign up with our
> own organisation, which is probably a decade away.
>

Given your prediction about energy and end of civilization, who are you
expecting will be around to maintain the cryopreserved state or eventually
reanimate you?  Given the choice between freezing to death or keeping the
dead frozen, I'm going to use those resources for myself.
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Oct 20 17:00:16 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 11:00:16 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2Fcr8qiJu1Es5ZN7hezDWMS2ZFQtNF=J_aoRGT8qx1Eg@mail.gmail.com>
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On Sun, Oct 20, 2013 at 9:11 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 11:29 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
> > creationism.  The Tea Party holds no position on that subject.
>>
>
> I don't know how you determine the position of the Tea Party about
> anything except by looking at the position of Tea Party members, and nearly
> all of the most prominent ones are creationists, and very vocal and
> militant ones too. And there is a connection, if you're irrational in one
> subject, like biology, I think you're probably more likely to be irrational
> in another subject, like economics. At any case it would certainly be
> irrational and an avoidance of reality to claim that there is not a strong
> connection between the Tea Party and creationism.
>

But John, other than threatening to default on the debt, which I attribute
to political theater only, what CRAZY economic theory do you attribute to
the Tea Party?


>
>
> > This world must not depend on money which has value based only on trust
>> and faith.
>>
>
> Spike, that's the only type of money there is and it is the only reason
> any form of exchange has value.
>

True enough. We need a currency based on Work, in the Physics sense. You
could value oil in the amount of Work it would do, and then you could value
everything else in terms of oil. Then you could have other "currencies"
based on the Work done by solar, wind, nuclear, whatever. Just a thought.

And since oil is tied to the US dollar, that is the closest currency to
this ideal. Unfortunately, with the Fed printing dollars at an unusually
high rate, it takes us farther from that ideal.


>
> > We need money that represents actual wealth,
>>
>
> Actual wealth? Like what, atoms that contain 79 protons and 118 neutrons?
> The only reason that stuff has value is that people think it has value and
> they have faith that value will continue in the future. That's why it's
> money, although a form of money that is not nearly as important to the
> world economy as the US dollar is. And if we go along with your plan and
> dump thousands of tons on the market the faith in the future value of that
> stuff will be destroyed too just like the value of the dollar, and with
> nothing left to use we'll be bartering 2 skinned squirrels for one can of
> beans.
>

Money's main purpose is to simply avoid barter. To store wealth in between
transactions. Anything will serve this purpose, but the purpose will be
served better if there aren't people who exert a lot of pressure on what
the medium of exchange is worth. That is, if you have a central power that
can create inflationary or deflationary pressure on a currency, then the
currency is less stable or trustworthy for use as a medium of exchange.

The reason that some of us like Bitcoin is that it is just such a currency,
and is largely independent of centralized meddling (other than just
declaring it illegal).


>
> > based on evidence and frequent verification by exchange.
>>
>
> The US dollar has been the backbone of world exchange for nearly a
> century, and you want to destroy that and make gold worthless too.
>

I'm not sure where this idea comes from. Spike does not want to make gold
nor dollars worthless, I'm sure.


> And you think the world economy can withstand those two devastating head
> shots and continue on as if nothing has happened. I think there will be
> blood in the streets, in fact there would be blood in the streets today if
> more people had voted Ted Cruz's way on Wednesday night.
>

No. The president would have folded in the face of such pressure, and the
individual mandate for Obamacare would have been sensibly put off for a
year, just as the mandate for companies and unions and everyone else with
power has. The problem is that the people have no power, and we get the
short end of every stick.

Nobody, including the POTUS in particular, is going to allow the government
to go into default. But if the people are truly represented by the House of
Representatives, then we can get off of the crazy spending binge we
currently observe.

> You have produced no evidence to convince me that we can continue to
>> borrow three billion dollars a day and sustain that indefinitely.
>>
>
> I don't know about indefinitely but there is plenty of evidence it's not a
> immediate problem. I'm sure you believe in the wisdom of the free market as
> I do, and the market is saying that the government HAS NOT printed too much
> money in the last few years; inflation is the lowest it's been in many
> decades, in fact it's so low it's starting to scare economists. And
> interest rates are also the lowest they've been in decades which means the
> free market is not expecting inflation to pick up anytime soon.
>

I have reason to believe that the interest rate has a lot to do with the
derivatives markets. If the interest rate does begin to creep up into the 6
or 7 range, I think that's going to make the housing market problems in
2008 look like a walk in the park.


> Inflation happens when there is more money in circulation than there are
> things to buy, but today it's the very opposite; there are millions of
> houses with nobody living in them and factories are operating far below
> their maximum capacity, the lowest level in my lifetime. Right now the big
> danger is deflation not inflation.
>

The problem most people have with the debt and deficit is not related to
deflation or inflation, it's related to fairness. How can the government
operate in perpetual deficit when individuals and corporations can not?


>
>
>> > My shocking theory: all governments and all nations must live within
>> their means.
>>
>
> That is incorrect. The government of the USA has not lived within its
> means since 1835, and yet it continues.
>

Sad that. Always been a big fan of Andrew Jackson for that reason.


>
> >All governments must balance their books,
>>
>
> No government on earth balances their books nor do they need to because
> they have the power to print money. True, that power can be abused but it
> can be abused in 2 different ways, printing too much and printing too
> little. Today there is zero evidence the USA is printing too much
>

Every time the government prints a dollar, the dollar in your pocket goes
down in value just a little. It is just another hidden tax and taxes are
high enough already.

-Kelly
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From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Oct 20 17:00:39 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 10:00:39 -0700
Subject: [ExI] [Hplus-talk] Working toward an Optimal Future
In-Reply-To: <008101cecda0$235e7f20$6a1b7d60$@att.net>
References: <20131018143153.GY10405@leitl.org>
 <CALAdGNTqppPKXcfi73qhjdpCS4AcJEPjkQPQneLjUFKRwnrrLQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <008101cecda0$235e7f20$6a1b7d60$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQSTerEzAYNLu3rhuquGBytQBymg+owN0YPgYLUkuN4OA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 20, 2013 at 7:24 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> If there are some kind of high-melting-point metal bits needed for a 3D
> printer, we can imagine using a small collection of machines made almost
> entirely of 3D printed parts which includes a lathe and mill which can make
> the remaining bits from castings of high temperature material.
>

Ah, that's the trap, settling for "almost entirely".  Then the printers
can't actually make themselves completely, so more printers does not
directly mean more capacity to make printers.

That said - why not 3D print the lathe and mill?  A plasma torch is, I
hear, capable of making itself (with proper feedstock and robot arms +
vision to guide it).  Perhaps a self-creating multi-tool is more feasible
than a self-creating 3D printer specifically.  Certainly, a typical machine
shop can create all the components of another typical machine shop (and
manipulators to assemble it), no?  So how do we miniaturize this, and in so
doing get the total cost down to something any hobbyist can easily afford -
and then, ramp production up further until fully robotic manufacturing on
large scales, and then on small scales, becomes significantly cheaper than
even the cheapest foreign labor?
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From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Oct 20 17:04:37 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 10:04:37 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...
In-Reply-To: <5263CC81.2080400@yahoo.com>
References: <mailman.1.1382270401.7134.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <5263CC81.2080400@yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ5Fs4d8EHj5dZFQfHnju4mj3YSO0CROWGnw-6ZmxUw=Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 20, 2013 at 5:28 AM, Ben <bbenzai at yahoo.com> wrote:

> That's one of the biggest problems with cryonics.  Just as we have no
> practical way of telling if we live in a simulation now, anyone waking from
> suspension will have no way of telling that they're /not/ in a simulation.
>  That sandbox could be indefinite, and totally convincing.
>

That argument is a non-op.  If the chances of us being in a simulation
before and afterward are essentially the same - and they appear to be -
then it does not affect the decision to go for cryonics or not.  Odds are,
though, we'll be revived at the minimum viable technical capability - which
may include uploading, but probably precludes upload into simulation.
Cheaper to let the cryonaut experience and get over any future shock.  (It
also helps the cryonaut become a production member of society faster - and
maybe give the reviving organization some more money.)
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Sun Oct 20 17:11:49 2013
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 11:11:49 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...
In-Reply-To: <20131020090955.GX10405@leitl.org>
References: <20131018154844.GG10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZVztFVLiXzoDzvwh6hkMZwWhd0kQeMcRmR4pebupkdTQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJX-7wUADENNkZGUBNEQG60UTZa+vPEB5iVm8czAZuZ6HhvmYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ3Lk-PHkB7kVvnsCKVZBmwD-ZGX2xwqakHsKYxAOOhVA@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131020090955.GX10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CAPy8Rwa7_2D+Y9GkDU8UciG16TP8L4poyvEMSwJo8Kgi=FX_DQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 20, 2013 at 3:09 AM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> In case you have some spare time, I recommend you organize a group
> of volunteers in your area, and complete a transport technician
> training as well as build up some first responder capability.
>

I've got quite enough non-money producing activities at the moment. I have
to get back to where I can be effective at philanthropy first. ;-)


>
> > That being said, even if I had the money, I have not entirely bought into
> > cryopreservation for myself, even though I totally support others having
> > the option and I believe it is a reasonable thing to do and real science.
> > It's not that I don't believe future technology may be able to retrieve
> > cryonauts, I'm just not entirely convinced that enough of the
> > microstructures are preserved with current approaches. In addition, I'm
> not
>
> The hardest validation we have is viability, and there has been some
> quite promising work on hippocampal slices.
>

I do try to pay attention, and I have great hope that we can get there. I'm
just not sure we're there yet.


>
> > entirely sure I want to experience the future in a big jump. It's scary
>
> No jump, expect to be sandboxed from reality for a while, until
> you're ready.
>

That's actually a really comforting thought. I appreciate that idea very
much Eugen.

-Kelly
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From eugen at leitl.org  Sun Oct 20 17:18:24 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 19:18:24 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...
In-Reply-To: <5263CC81.2080400@yahoo.com>
References: <mailman.1.1382270401.7134.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <5263CC81.2080400@yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <20131020171824.GD10405@leitl.org>

On Sun, Oct 20, 2013 at 01:28:49PM +0100, Ben wrote:

> That's one of the biggest problems with cryonics.  Just as we have
> no practical way of telling if we live in a simulation now, anyone

There is a simple way: it's too expensive for such an exercise
in pointlessness, unless the real reality is entirely different
from what is being rendered. In that case we never had a history
of 'outside', but are entirely synthetic.

Could happen, but there's a much simpler explanation.

> waking from suspension will have no way of telling that they're
> /not/ in a simulation.  That sandbox could be indefinite, and
> totally convincing.

What would be the incentive? There is an incentive in reintegration.
Continuation of a prior history in the same boring old context is
certainly sufficiently cruel and unusual.


From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Sun Oct 20 22:32:03 2013
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 17:32:03 -0500
Subject: [ExI] B Movies - Worst Movie of All Time (Re: it was the best
 times, it was the best of times)
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZo=Z3uVhQz8ktZvZJARhfBvQr4ZgJGFaVJiATYuUvb2w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwZo=Z3uVhQz8ktZvZJARhfBvQr4ZgJGFaVJiATYuUvb2w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPfKUtthsvDNkxpFP94zc32-jog1mt45nfkQhdFLS3cNiA@mail.gmail.com>

*Monster a Go-Go!* is a 1965 science
fiction<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_fiction>
 horror <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horror_film> film directed by Bill
Rebane <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Rebane> and Herschell Gordon
Lewis<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herschell_Gordon_Lewis> (who
remained uncredited in association with this film). The film is considered
to be one of the worst films
ever<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_films_considered_the_worst>
.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monster_a_Go-Go



On Sun, Oct 20, 2013 at 11:28 AM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>wrote:

> On Thu, Oct 10, 2013 at 3:44 PM, Tomasz Rola <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:
>
>> I recently started to enjoy B movies a lot.
>>
>> Of non-sf movies, full set of Kurosawa and Scorsese's "Taxi driver" are
>> obvious buy. Then, I don't know again.
>>
>> This night my cable serves "The Helix Loaded", a "Matrix" B-ripoff.
>>
>> http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0401462/
>>
>> AFAIK I have never before watched a movie with imdb rating so low (1.7). I
>> am so excited!
>>
>
> If you enjoy truly terrible movies, as I do, then there isn't one much
> worse than Monster a Go Go. It has a terrible plot, terrible lighting, they
> changed all the actors half way through without saying anything about it,
> it has a lousy ending, they didn't finish the opening credits, the music
> score is horrid, the editing is truly awful.
>
> In short, if you feel that you have not contributed to the world in a
> really significant way, this movie will make you feel much better, because
> at least you weren't involved in making it.
>
> The best thing you can say about Monster a Go Go is that nobody involved
> in making this film ever worked in Hollywood again. Whew!
>
> Monster a Go Go makes Ed Wood look like Stephen Spielberg. Honestly. If
> you can't find a copy... hit me up.
>
> -Kelly
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From rtomek at ceti.pl  Sun Oct 20 22:21:08 2013
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 00:21:08 +0200 (CEST)
Subject: [ExI] [GRG] NewBook: Transhumanist Reader (fwd)
Message-ID: <Pine.LNX.4.64.1310210017090.4400@tau.ceti.pl>


---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 11:49:19 -0700
From: "L. Stephen Coles, M.D., Ph.D." <scoles at grg.org>
Reply-To: Gerontology Research Group <grg at lists.ucla.edu>
To: Gerontology Research Group <grg at lists.ucla.edu>
Subject: [GRG] NewBook: Transhumanist Reader



To Members and Friends of the Los Angeles Gerontology Research Group:

        New Book: Collection on transhumanism... -- Steve Coles

>"The Transhumanist Reader: Classical and Contemporary Essays on the Science,
>Technology, and Philosophy of the Human Future"
>
>
>by
><http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=ntt_athr_dp_sr_1?_encoding=UTF8&field-author=Max%20More&search-alias=books&sort=relevancerank>Max
>More and
><http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=ntt_athr_dp_sr_2?_encoding=UTF8&field-author=Natasha%20Vita-More&search-alias=books&sort=relevancerank>Natasha
>Vita-More, Editors
>(Paperback; 1st Edition; 480 pages; Wiley-Blackwell; New York; 2013; $32.32 on
>Amazon.com)
>
>The first authoritative and comprehensive survey of the origins and 
>current state of transhumanist thinking...
>
>         The rapid pace of emerging technologies is playing an 
> increasingly important role in overcoming fundamental human limitations. 
> Featuring core writings by seminal thinkers in the speculative 
> possibilities of the posthuman condition, essays address key 
> philosophical arguments for and against human enhancement, explore the 
> inevitability of life extension, and consider possible solutions to the 
> growing issues of social and ethical implications and concerns. Edited 
> by the internationally acclaimed founders of the philosophy and social 
> movement of transhumanism, The Transhumanist Reader is an indispensable 
> guide to our current state of knowledge of the quest to expand the 
> frontiers of human nature.
>
>
>Review:
>
>
>
>         ?Edited by the internationally acclaimed founders of the 
> philosophy and social movement of transhumanism, The Transhumanist 
> Reader is an indispensable guide to our current state of knowledge of 
> the quest to expand the frontiers of human nature.? (LIS Trends, 8 March 
> 2013)
>
>
>Reviews:
>
>
>
>         ?We are in the process of upgrading the human species, so we 
> might as well do it with deliberation and foresight. A good first step 
> is this book, which collects the smartest thinking available concerning 
> the inevitable conflicts, challenges and opportunities arising as we 
> re-invent ourselves. It's a core text for anyone making the future.? ?- 
> Kevin Kelly, Senior Maverick for Wired
>
>         ?Transhumanism has moved from a fringe concern to a mainstream 
> academic movement with real intellectual credibility. This is a great 
> taster of some of the best emerging work. In the last 10 years, 
> transhumanism has spread not as a religion but as a creative rational 
> endeavor.? -? Julian Savulescu, Uehiro Chair in Practical Ethics, 
> University of Oxford
>
>         ?The Transhumanist Reader is an important, provocative 
> compendium critically exploring the history, philosophy, and ethics of 
> transhumanism. The contributors anticipate crucial biopolitical, 
> ecological, and planetary implications of a radically technologically 
> enhanced population.? -? Edward Keller, Director, Center for 
> Transformative Media, Parsons The New School for Design
>
>         ?This important book contains essays by many of the top thinkers 
> in the field of transhumanism.  It?s a must-read for anyone interested 
> in the future of humankind.? -? Sonia Arrison, Best-selling author of 
> 100 Plus: How The Coming Age of Longevity Will Change Everything

L. Stephen Coles, M.D., Ph.D., Co-Founder
Los Angeles Gerontology Research Group
URL: http://www.grg.org
E-mail: scoles at grg.org
E-mail: scoles at ucla.edu
L. Stephen Coles, M.D., Ph.D., Co-Founder
Los Angeles Gerontology Research Group
URL: http://www.grg.org
E-mail: scoles at grg.org
E-mail: scoles at ucla.edu  
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_______________________________________________
To UNSUBSCRIBE or for ADMINISTRATIVE REQUESTS send an E-mail to jadams at grg.org or scoles at grg.org, or call (949) 922-9786 USA.

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From rex at nosyntax.net  Mon Oct 21 00:46:36 2013
From: rex at nosyntax.net (rex)
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 17:46:36 -0700
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
In-Reply-To: <526303BB.1040601@aleph.se>
References: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
 <525BBDB8.5060308@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjjpC9UB8iyqtjvAQjRdo4Q30xQTkeVq1V1m7J3+iK3-Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <525BD350.5010909@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armh9=+PjG4Ush9hMMD2u-qvRZ+BhRnFwOSJdD4N=vVTsHA@mail.gmail.com>
 <525F182E.8060601@aleph.se> <526303BB.1040601@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <20131021004636.GV6397@ninja.nosyntax.net>

Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> [2013-10-19 15:15]:
>Some updated runs with my model:
>http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2013/10/the_morons_are_marching_rather_slowly.html

Hello Anders,

Is the source code for your simulation available? If not would
you mind describing it in more detail, e.g., what function is
served by the 50 loci that are in the 0 state, and what determines
which are in the 1 state? Also, how is the crossover done?

Thanks,

-rex
-- 
Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite
world, is either a madman or an economist.  --Kenneth Boulding



From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct 21 05:29:14 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 07:29:14 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdb+v5QnMFkXDE6_Q-wrGi2t=noY96KX5x=BcSZFYg+DDLw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20131018154844.GG10405@leitl.org>
 <CAPy8RwZVztFVLiXzoDzvwh6hkMZwWhd0kQeMcRmR4pebupkdTQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJX-7wUADENNkZGUBNEQG60UTZa+vPEB5iVm8czAZuZ6HhvmYA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ3Lk-PHkB7kVvnsCKVZBmwD-ZGX2xwqakHsKYxAOOhVA@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131020090955.GX10405@leitl.org>
 <CAOJFdb+v5QnMFkXDE6_Q-wrGi2t=noY96KX5x=BcSZFYg+DDLw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131021052914.GG10405@leitl.org>

On Sun, Oct 20, 2013 at 12:49:10PM -0400, Mike Dougherty wrote:

> > I'm not yet signed up, either. I hope to sign up with our
> > own organisation, which is probably a decade away.
> >
> 
> Given your prediction about energy and end of civilization, who are you

I can see how the Limits to Growth report people are really annoyed.
They did not predict. They mapped generic trajectory space based on
varied input, and discovered there are regions in that space that
are not good to go, and gave suggestions how to avoid getting
there. Nobody bothered (business as usual), so now we're on the 
outskirts of one of that region. 

> expecting will be around to maintain the cryopreserved state or eventually

In case of irreversible deep collapse there won't be the technology
necessary for resuscitation.

For transient disruptions you need to plan for onsite energy generation
and cryogenics. Me and others have written enough about that elsewhere.

> reanimate you?  Given the choice between freezing to death or keeping the
> dead frozen, I'm going to use those resources for myself.


From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct 21 06:32:02 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 08:32:02 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQ5Fs4d8EHj5dZFQfHnju4mj3YSO0CROWGnw-6ZmxUw=Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.1.1382270401.7134.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <5263CC81.2080400@yahoo.com>
 <CALAdGNQ5Fs4d8EHj5dZFQfHnju4mj3YSO0CROWGnw-6ZmxUw=Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20131021063202.GH10405@leitl.org>

On Sun, Oct 20, 2013 at 10:04:37AM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:

> That argument is a non-op.  If the chances of us being in a simulation
> before and afterward are essentially the same - and they appear to be -
> then it does not affect the decision to go for cryonics or not.  Odds are,

The problem is with "You Might Be Immortal Already!" crowd.

> though, we'll be revived at the minimum viable technical capability - which
> may include uploading, but probably precludes upload into simulation.

Pardon? Simulation, but no simulation?

There are very good reasons to suspect that most activities will happen
in solid state (with, of course, plenty of physical layer construction and
maintenance), so don't assume somebody is going to build a biosphere
life support bubble just for you at an astronomic expense just to cater to your
antiquated superstitions, so that you can hang around frozen in slowtime, 
like flies in amber. 

> Cheaper to let the cryonaut experience and get over any future shock.  (It

It is indeed cheaper and without temporal impedance mismatch to
resuscitate in solid state. 

> also helps the cryonaut become a production member of society faster - and
> maybe give the reviving organization some more money.)


From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Oct 21 07:21:33 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 00:21:33 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...
In-Reply-To: <20131021063202.GH10405@leitl.org>
References: <mailman.1.1382270401.7134.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <5263CC81.2080400@yahoo.com>
 <CALAdGNQ5Fs4d8EHj5dZFQfHnju4mj3YSO0CROWGnw-6ZmxUw=Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <20131021063202.GH10405@leitl.org>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRuwwyZ3bzjDPkqXx9sQJ_RwvjWt1mHFSjzTj_aebe_Ng@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 20, 2013 at 11:32 PM, Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Sun, Oct 20, 2013 at 10:04:37AM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:
> > though, we'll be revived at the minimum viable technical capability -
> which
> > may include uploading, but probably precludes upload into simulation.
>
> Pardon? Simulation, but no simulation?
>

As in, "if this reality isn't a simulation already, then if you'll be
uploaded, you'll more likely be uploaded into something that views the
world as it is than into a simulation".


> There are very good reasons to suspect that most activities will happen
> in solid state (with, of course, plenty of physical layer construction and
> maintenance)


Indeed.  I was, in part, emphasizing that parenthetical.
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From eugen at leitl.org  Mon Oct 21 08:17:29 2013
From: eugen at leitl.org (Eugen Leitl)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 10:17:29 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Who wants to live forever? Maybe you can...
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNRuwwyZ3bzjDPkqXx9sQJ_RwvjWt1mHFSjzTj_aebe_Ng@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.1.1382270401.7134.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
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Message-ID: <20131021081729.GN10405@leitl.org>

On Mon, Oct 21, 2013 at 12:21:33AM -0700, Adrian Tymes wrote:

> > There are very good reasons to suspect that most activities will happen
> > in solid state (with, of course, plenty of physical layer construction and
> > maintenance)
> 
> 
> Indeed.  I was, in part, emphasizing that parenthetical.

This definitely could use some emphasis. Ignoring the
physical layer will tend to disagree with you more sooner
than later. Though a lot of that activity would be
about as conscious as you're conscious of your brain
stem activity right now -- but you immediately certainly 
would notice if it's no longer doing its job, the
same as you'd notice your metabolism crashing.

Everything is embodied, somewhere.


From anders at aleph.se  Mon Oct 21 08:31:51 2013
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 09:31:51 +0100
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
In-Reply-To: <20131021004636.GV6397@ninja.nosyntax.net>
References: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <5264E677.6000000@aleph.se>

On 2013-10-21 01:46, rex wrote:
> Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> [2013-10-19 15:15]:
>> Some updated runs with my model:
>> http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2013/10/the_morons_are_marching_rather_slowly.html 
>>
>
> Hello Anders,
>
> Is the source code for your simulation available?

I added links at the end of the post.

> If not would
> you mind describing it in more detail, e.g., what function is
> served by the 50 loci that are in the 0 state, and what determines
> which are in the 1 state? Also, how is the crossover done?

Each loci either does nothing (0 state) or it adds a fixed 
Gaussian-distributed random number to the overall IQ (1 state). They are 
initialized as 50% ones.

Crossover is done by selecting a random point in the (linear) genome and 
making everything before it the same as parent 1's genome, and 
everything after parent 2's genome.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From rahmans at me.com  Mon Oct 21 09:18:34 2013
From: rahmans at me.com (Omar Rahman)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 11:18:34 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans
	are	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <mailman.34.1382309191.28790.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.34.1382309191.28790.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <98403CF1-5A40-46A2-9DE8-3661B39FC7BF@me.com>

> 
> Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2013 10:43:24 -0600
> From: Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>
> 
> On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 11:52 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
>> 
>> On Sat, Oct 19, 2013 at 12:34 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>wrote:
>> 
>>> I am a Tea Party member.
>>> 
>> 
>> And I too have a confession to make, although I'm embarrassed to admit it
>> I'm still a registered Republican. In fact, I actually agree with about
>> half of what the Tea Party says, the problem is that in the other half
>> they're not just wrong they're BAT SHIT CRAZY WRONG.
>> 
> 
> Again, the stuff that makes the Tea Party wrong is not officially part of
> the Tea Party, but rather positions that members of the Tea Party often
> take. It's a matter of being highly correlated, but not causal.
> 
> For example, the Tea Party itself says nothing about creationism that I am
> aware of. Yet, a high number of Tea Party advocates believe in creationism.
> The question though is can you hold your nose and be in the room with that
> level of craziness in order to bring fiscal responsibility to Washington?
> 
> The Republicans and Democrats have both shown a disregard for spending
> money and love growing government. We have to have a real alternative.
> Personally, I'm a Libertarian, which reflects my thoughts that the Tea
> Party has it right on fiscal issues, (even though defaulting on the debt is
> clearly not something anyone is really going to let happen) and that the
> social liberals have it right on the social and science side of the ledger.
> 
> 

Kelly and others have tried to disassociate the Tea Party from the commonly expressed views of it's members/leaders. Ok, whatever; whoever believes that won't believe evidence to the contrary.

I would like to comment on the whole 'premise' of the T.axed E.nough A.lready P.arty: quite simply we aren't. If we were taxed at a level that would fund our expenditures you would actually see real broad based bi(tri?)partisan support for military entitlements reform. We might even see progress on increasing helpful things like education, food stamps, and the minimum wage.

I put to you list members that: the crazed billionaires backing the Brethren of the Koolaid are in fact far more extropian than us here on this list. Sitting on top of their mountains of money they can see further, just as those who stand on the shoulders of giants can see. They can see the wave robotisation that will drive many jobs out of the hands of humans. They are the primary beneficiaries of this. It isn't an academic discussion for them it's a business plan. Anders and others recently posted information about jobs that will/could be soon computerised or robotised; egotistical crazed billionaire was not on any list that I saw. They are in practical terms (far?) closer to the singularity than us.

Elsewhere I've said on his list that corporations and countries are like huge mostly analogy AIs. A billionaire or dictator  who respectively controls one of these corporations  or countries is the closest facsimile to a post singularity entity that we can see. Of course to them taxation, national governments, and international agreements are usually just impediments to their free action. Even the 'good' egotistical crazed billionaires, think Elon Musk (to be fair Elon doesn't come off as egotistical even when he makes some sweeping statement that some past approach or program is doomed to fail) , have a perspective that might not always line up with the 'little guy'.

> 
>>> you are conflating right wing religious zealots with the people who just
>>> want lower taxes and smaller government. They are NOT always the same. I
>>> give myself as a prime example.
>>> 
>> 
>> I want lower taxes and smaller government too, but the way to do that is
>> to vote to buy less stuff, not to vote to refuse to pay for stuff you've
>> already voted to buy. And if I don't get my way I'm not going to try my
>> very best to set off a economic H bomb that would destroy the world as the
>> hillbilly Tea Party did.
>> 
> 
> But with the juggernaut that is Washington, how else do you slow it down
> other than throwing bodies under it? This is a serious question. How the
> hell do we slow it down?
> 
> 
>> 
>>> It's the level at which we're doing it now that is of concern.
>>> This chart shows the situation really clearly.
>>> http://bit.ly/19TizJy
>>> 
>> 
>> That chart is really not a very good argument that debt is bad, according
>> to it the largest percentage of debt to GDP happen in 1946, just before the
>> 1950's boon times and the largest increase in economic activity in history.
>> And the second largest economic boon happened during the Clinton years, a
>> time of increasing debt.
>> 
>> 
> And yet it shows a trend towards levels of debt that we haven't experienced
> since the TRUE emergency of WWII. Does anyone other then Eugen think we are
> currently facing a crisis that rises to the level of WWII?

We are a nation addicted to war and war spending. If we can't have a big one we'll take as many little ones as we can get. We'll create never ending wars on concepts; "Drugs', 'Terror', 'Cuteness' (ok I made the last one up....but why not....there is no way we could clean up the internet of cat pictures...let's go for it!) Let's not forget our openly 'covert' wars, wars which suspiciously resemble terrorism if you happen to have family at the wedding/funeral that gets 'bug splatted'.

If, and I'll admit it's a big IF, you accept the notion that countries are 'mostly analog AIs', how would you rate the US on the 'friendly' scale? Psychotic? Delusional?

About debt Kelly, the graph you presented shows pretty clearly that in recent times Reagan and Bush the 2nd are right at the elbows where the debt to gdp ratio turned for the worse. Almost every president has raised spending in dollar amounts, but when you couple that with tax cuts you get exactly the debt explosion that you would expect rather than the 'golden shower' of the trickle down economics we were promised. Why? The billionaires are buying more industrial plant and marching forward to the singularity alone.

Here's a graph for you:

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/canada-deficit/

Guess what, in Canada the fiscally conservative 'Conservatives'...aren't. The Liberals, at least since Chr?tien, are. The final irony is that the Conservatives have outlined in their platform a legislative goal to have a 'balanced budget amendment', something they haven't been able to do after squandering the surplus handed to them by their Liberal predecessors. Reminiscent of the Clinton to Bush transition, yes?

The Military-Industrial complex wants more wars and money, and the banking system wants a perpetually indebted client. They want a 'functional alcoholic', someone who can keep paying the bills but is completely incapable of 'getting off the bottle'. Guess what they've got?

The Tea Party is clearly not opposed to the Military-Industrial complex, it's priority lately has and continues to be to oppose a health care system that, while it is flawed, is a step in the right direction towards reducing the costs of health care to people and to the economy.

Just try to get the Tea Party to stand up and propose cuts just to the defence department and the spies. The American public in a vast majority would approve of that. Instead of going after that mountain of pork-barrel spending they go after the handful of beans that is 'Obamacare'.

Conclusion: either the Tea Party isn't sincere about wanting to reduce spending or they are motivated by idealogical concerns more strongly than fiscal concerns.

Regards,

Omar Rahman
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From rex at nosyntax.net  Mon Oct 21 09:44:36 2013
From: rex at nosyntax.net (rex)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 02:44:36 -0700
Subject: [ExI] What if humans were twice as intelligent?
In-Reply-To: <5264E677.6000000@aleph.se>
References: <CAGSKFy3BNz6F6CCqhqKy1fcj3V6g_jx5uPxnhoSjC7Gk+BzfGw@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <20131021094436.GY6397@ninja.nosyntax.net>

Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> [2013-10-21 01:34]:
>On 2013-10-21 01:46, rex wrote:
>>Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> [2013-10-19 15:15]:
>>>Some updated runs with my model:
>>>http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2013/10/the_morons_are_marching_rather_slowly.html
>>>
>Each loci either does nothing (0 state) or it adds a fixed 
>Gaussian-distributed random number to the overall IQ (1 state). They 
>are initialized as 50% ones.
>
>Crossover is done by selecting a random point in the (linear) genome 
>and making everything before it the same as parent 1's genome, and 
>everything after parent 2's genome.

Thanks! I've never used Matlab, but used Octave for a small project
years ago, so I tried to run your code under Octave. It appears
to run, but fails after several minutes with the warning: 

Fontconfig warning: "/etc/fonts/conf.d/65-droid-sans-fonts.conf", line 103: Having multiple values in <test> isn't supported and may not work as expected

I suspect it's the plot(ff) statement that is causing the problem. No
plot is produced.

Rather than try to track down the plot() incompatibility, I'm going
to try to translate your code to R. There may be some sticky spots,
and I hope you don't mind my asking about them.

-rex
-- 
To call in the statistician after the experiment is done may be no more 
than asking him to perform a post-mortem examination: he may be able to 
say what the experiment died of.  -- Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Oct 21 15:15:49 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 11:15:49 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Warren Buffett is worried too and thinks Republicans are
	"asinine"
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwbYoxgZ=u57zn6=e4xZGDWge_5Jng+Oi3uksC6_u0MenA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv16dcEuUatLaaYTskmKhnQ_+FBW7a1r44hy_ZBEJi8j=w@mail.gmail.com>
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On Sun, Oct 20, 2013 at 12:43 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>wrote:

 > a high number of Tea Party advocates believe in creationism.
>
>
Yes.


>  > The question though is can you hold your nose and be in the room with
> that level of craziness
>
>
No I can't, the stink of stupid is just too strong.


> > in order to bring fiscal responsibility to Washington?
>

The economic ideas of the hillbilly wing of the Republican party are just
as irrational as their biological ideas, and in my lifetime I have never
observed more irresponsible behavior by a American politician than what I
observed from the Tea Party Republicans on Wednesday night.


> > I'm a Libertarian, which reflects my thoughts that the Tea Party has it
> right on fiscal issues
>

I'm a Libertarian too, but I'm not suicidal, or irrational.


> > But with the juggernaut that is Washington, how else do you slow it down
> other than throwing bodies under it? This is a serious question. How the
> hell do we slow it down?
>

Easy, if you're in congress you vote to spend less money. And if things
don't come out your way you try to convince others to come around to your
way of thinking so that next time the outcome is different. What you DON'T
do is have a temper tantrum and try your very best to destroy the world
because you're angry that you lost.


> >> That chart is really not a very good argument that debt is bad,
>> according to it the largest percentage of debt to GDP happen in 1946, just
>> before the 1950's boon times and the largest increase in economic activity
>> in history. And the second largest economic boon happened during the
>> Clinton years, a time of increasing debt.
>>
>
> > And yet it shows a trend towards levels of debt that we haven't
> experienced since the TRUE emergency of WWII. Does anyone other then Eugen
> think we are currently facing a crisis that rises to the level of WWII?
>

Well, wars are very expensive, the Republicans started 2 and refused to
raise taxes to pay for them. And then we entered the greatest economic
downturn since the 1930's. And by the way, the Great Depression would have
probably ended in 1938 if drastic measures were not taken to stop
inflation,  inflation which did not exist in 1938. Sound familiar?


> > creationism.  The Tea Party holds no position on that subject.
>

I don't know how you determine the position of the Tea Party about anything
except by looking at the position of Tea Party members, and nearly all of
the most prominent ones are creationists, and very vocal and militant ones
too. And there is a connection, if you don't think logic is important in
one subject, like biology, then you probably don't think logic is important
in another subject, like economics. At any rate it would certainly be
irrational to claim that there is not a very strong connection between the
Tea Party and creationism.

> The president would have folded in the face of such pressure, and the
> individual mandate for Obamacare would have been sensibly put off for a year
>

It is time to face reality, the president is never EVER going to abandon
Obama care. There are 2 reasons:

1) It was passed by the House and the Senate and the Supreme Court said it
was constitutional and, although you may not like it, Obamacare is the
single thing the president is most proud of having accomplished.

2) If Obama gives in to terrorist demands and they are seen to be
successful then he knows that the exact same tactics will be used against
him and future presidents again and again and again.

 > other than threatening to default on the debt,


Besides that Mrs. Lincoln how did you like the play?


>  > what CRAZY economic theory do you attribute to the Tea Party?
>

How about the USA going back to the Gold Standard and in effect give China
and Australia and the happenstance of geology the power that the Federal
Reserve Board has now, as both countries produce more gold than the USA
does. And Uzbekistan becomes a major world power and Japan and Briton and
Germany and France become insignificant footnotes. Do you expect a radical
change like that to happen in 90 minutes without blood in the streets?


> > We need a currency based on Work, in the Physics sense. You could value
> oil in the amount of Work it would do, and then you could value everything
> else in terms of oil.
>

So how much Work in the physical sense does a computer programmer do, or a
novelist, or a cancer researcher, or a Tea party politician?


> > Money's main purpose is to simply avoid barter.
>

Yes.


> > To store wealth in between transactions.
>

Yes.

> Anything will serve this purpose

No not just anything can serve that purpose, only those things that, for
whatever reason, people have faith will retain its value in the future. And
thanks to Tea Party Neanderthals in congress that is the faith that came
within 90 minutes of being destroyed forever.


> > if you have a central power that can create inflationary or deflationary
> pressure on a currency, then the currency is less stable or trustworthy for
> use as a medium of exchange.
>

Since currency was first invented countries have exerted inflationary and
deflationary pressure on them and the US dollar is no exception, but
nevertheless it remains the most trusted currency in the world. The
hillbilly republicans are doing everything they can to destroy that trust.


> > The reason that some of us like Bitcoin is that it is just such a
> currency, and is largely independent of centralized meddling (other than
> just declaring it illegal).
>

If the free market decides it would prefer Bitcoins to dollars who am I to
disagree, but that will take a long time if ever. Bitcoin, just like any
other form of money, has value because people have faith it will be
valuable in the future; right now far far fewer people have faith in
Bitcoin than in the US dollar, so far far fewer people are willing to
accept it as exchange. If Bitcoin can get over its wild and unpredictable
price swings the faith people have in it could increase, but that sure as
hell was not going to happen on Wednesday night in the 90 minutes before
the dollar was lynched by hillbillies.


> > based on evidence and frequent verification by exchange.
>

The US dollar has been the backbone of world exchange for nearly a century,
and you want to destroy that and make gold worthless too.


>  > Spike does not want to make gold nor dollars worthless, I'm sure.
>

I don't care what he wants I care what would happen and default would make
the dollar worthless and dumping everything in Fort Knox on the market
would make gold worthless. By the way, what form of payment would we accept
for all those thousands of tons of gold? Paper currency? Issued from what
country?


> > The problem most people have with the debt and deficit is not related to
> deflation or inflation, it's related to fairness.
>

If the Tea Party can make rich people poor but can't make poor people rich
then fuck fairness.


> > How can the government operate in perpetual deficit when individuals and
> corporations can not?
>

Because government can print money and corporations can't. Printing money
can be a wonderful thing, or a terrible thing, it depends on the
circumstances.


>  >Every time the government prints a dollar, the dollar in your pocket
> goes down in value just a little.
>

During the last 5 years the free market has disagreed with you about that,
despite a lot more dollars having been printed prices have not gone up, and
I think the free market is wiser in these matters than you or me.

  John K Clark


>
>
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Oct 21 15:37:35 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 11:37:35 -0400
Subject: [ExI] B Movies - Worst Movie of All Time (Re: it was the best
 times, it was the best of times)
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZo=Z3uVhQz8ktZvZJARhfBvQr4ZgJGFaVJiATYuUvb2w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPy8RwZo=Z3uVhQz8ktZvZJARhfBvQr4ZgJGFaVJiATYuUvb2w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3ZuZcvBx1w0CDoUn98t70deZn=PmoKxSaXG=JnA+ctAw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Oct 20, 2013 at 12:28 PM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com>wrote:


> If you enjoy truly terrible movies, as I do, then there isn't one much
> worse than Monster a Go Go. It has a terrible plot, terrible lighting, they
> changed all the actors half way through without saying anything about it,
> it has a lousy ending, they didn't finish the opening credits, the music
> score is horrid, the editing is truly awful.
> In short, if you feel that you have not contributed to the world in a
> really significant way, this movie will make you feel much better, because
> at least you weren't involved in making it. The best thing you can say
> about Monster a Go Go is that nobody involved in making this film ever
> worked in Hollywood again. Whew! Monster a Go Go makes Ed Wood look like
> Stephen Spielberg. Honestly. If you can't find a copy... hit me up.
>

Monster a Go Go is indeed the Citizen Kane of bad movies,  take a look at
Mystery Science Theater's take on it, it's one of the funniest things I've
ever seen:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnGHJ7VlYYc

If you want to get directly to the movie go 17 minutes into the show,
although the other parts aren't bad.

  John K Clark
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Oct 21 16:35:33 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 12:35:33 -0400
Subject: [ExI] This is one amazing robot!
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0M3WRnv74Y1Ts89Jwj0_FTRPjLNvUfhcVoYz06-xsjvA@mail.gmail.com>


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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Oct 21 16:36:58 2013
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 12:36:58 -0400
Subject: [ExI] This is one amazing robot!
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3+6tH3yA-U5=L-7wHaONi6GNBxX0+C7CHAqeszU9J+mQ@mail.gmail.com>

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wE3fmFTtP9g
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From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Oct 21 18:16:09 2013
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 11:16:09 -0700
Subject: [ExI] This is one amazing robot!
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3+6tH3yA-U5=L-7wHaONi6GNBxX0+C7CHAqeszU9J+mQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3+6tH3yA-U5=L-7wHaONi6GNBxX0+C7CHAqeszU9J+mQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ3wNzFh=7+5TuZrm4No5kPippb1xwuteYwEbKYymva6g@mail.gmail.com>

They've got horse-grade locomotion figured out in outdoor lab environments,
yeah.  Now if they can work on the power source and productize it...
On Oct 21, 2013 9:37 AM, "John Clark" <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wE3fmFTtP9g
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
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From spike66 at att.net  Mon Oct 21 18:37:11 2013
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 11:37:11 -0700
Subject: [ExI] This is one amazing robot!
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQ3wNzFh=7+5TuZrm4No5kPippb1xwuteYwEbKYymva6g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3+6tH3yA-U5=L-7wHaONi6GNBxX0+C7CHAqeszU9J+mQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ3wNzFh=7+5TuZrm4No5kPippb1xwuteYwEbKYymva6g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00ea01cece8c$8eba9960$ac2fcc20$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Sent: Monday, October 21, 2013 11:16 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] This is one amazing robot!

 

>.They've got horse-grade locomotion figured out in outdoor lab
environments, yeah.  Now if they can work on the power source and productize
it...

The power source sounds to me like two independent two-stroke IC motors.  My
guess is that they chose that for space and weight minimization.  Good
chance they could go to four-stroke ICs and get it a little quieter and less
smoky.  

The path forward is clear enough to see: mechanical horse racing:
traditional Kentucky Derby style (wouldn't that be cool to see?) racing over
rough terrain that wheeled vehicles cannot handle, racing on ice, racing
over mixed cross country/street conditions, oh this will be fun to watch.
Look at how much money we dump into NASCAR and Indy racers.  Even for big
fans such as me, it does get a little boring.  But I would pay good money to
watch mechanical horses gallop around, get them to jump over stuff like the
steeple chase they used to have in the Olympics, that sort of thing, maybe
polo on mechanical horses, or mechanical guys playing polo on real horses,
or mechanical guys riding mechanical horses doing old-time
Monte-Python-esque jousting.

Is this a fun time to be alive or what?

spike

 

 

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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Mon Oct 21 19:03:34 2013
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2013 12:03:34 -0700
Subject: [ExI] This is one amazing robot!
In-Reply-To: <00ea01cece8c$8eba9960$ac2fcc20$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv3+6tH3yA-U5=L-7wHaONi6GNBxX0+C7CHAqeszU9J+mQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNQ3wNzFh=7+5TuZrm4No5kPippb1xwuteYwEbKYymva6g@mail.gmail.com>
 <00ea01cece8c$8eba9960$ac2fcc20$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy1LHbanxDAPm8Eb5y9KMZhZax+FLNd+u2AKRBMsZnhHSw@mail.gmail.com>

Spike wrote:
>Is this a fun time to be alive or what?


Yes!!!  But I just wish that our lifespans were naturally twice as long as
they currently are, so we would have much more of a fighting chance to
benefit from the radical life extension technologies, which may end up
coming down the pike too late to help us.  I want to witness many more cool
things!  I have a bad feeling that just as technology and society are
getting really super-awesome, I will be dying of old age...  : (


John


On Mon, Oct 21, 2013 at 11:37 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> ** **
>
> ** **
>
> *From:* extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:
> extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On Behalf Of *Adrian Tymes
> *Sent:* Monday, October 21, 2013 11:16 AM
> *To:* ExI chat list
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] This is one amazing robot!****
>
> ** **
>
> >?They've got horse-grade locomotion figured out in outdoor lab
> environments, yeah.  Now if they can work on the power source and
> productize it...****
>
> The power source sounds to me like two independent two-stroke IC motors.
> My guess is that they chose that for space and weight minimization.  Good
> chance they could go to four-stroke ICs and get it a little quieter and
> less smoky.  ****
>
> The path forward is clear enough to see: mechanical horse racing:
> traditional Kentucky Derby style (wouldn?t that be cool to see?) racing
> over rough terrain that wheeled vehicles cannot handle, racing on ice,
> racing over mixed cross country/street conditions, oh this will be fun to
> watch.  Look at how much money we dump into NASCAR and Indy racers.  Even
> for big fans such as me, it does get a little boring.  But I would pay good
> money to watch mechanical horses gallop around, get them to jump over stuff
> like the steeple chase they used to have in the Olympics, that sort of
> thing, maybe polo on mechanical horses, or mechanical guys playing polo on
> real horses, or mechanical guys riding mechanical horses doing old-time
> Monte-Python-esque jousting.****
>
> Is this a fun time to be alive or what?****
>
> spike****
>
> ** **
>
> ** **
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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