[ExI] A Gedanken Rational Eugenics Experiment (AGREE)

rex rex at nosyntax.net
Thu Oct 24 17:27:53 UTC 2013

Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> [2013-10-24 07:29]:
>On Wed, Oct 23, 2013 at 9:16 PM, rex <rex at nosyntax.net> wrote:
>> Smart fraction theory:
>> http://www.lagriffedulion.f2s.com/sft.htm
>> http://www.lagriffedulion.f2s.com/sft2.htm

>Zygote selection is an already existing technology which, if widely
>applied, could dramatically increase the smart fraction, even if the
>below average would not participate. 

Hello Rafal,

Yes. I've proposed the idea before in another venue.

>Generally, it's not realistic to expect voluntary participation in an
>eugenics effort from stupid people, and I am quite averse to any
>non-voluntary effort.

If a woman isn't planning on becoming pregnant in the next 6 months,
why not get paid for a birth control implant? What's the downside?

>However, smart people are frequently quite obsessed withe the IQ of
>their offspring (if they have any), and despite the current leftoid
>anti-science animus, I would expect a lot of interest if a company
>would offer zygote full sequencing and selection. If you could screen
>about 50 zygotes (a big if but not fundamentally impossible) per
>pregnancy, you could shift the average IQ of offspring by more than 1
>SD. I am assuming here that 85% of the zygotes would be non-viable to
>begin with, leaving about 6 to make the actual choice from. Since the
>likely parental generation would have above average IQ, the filial
>generation might be actually pretty smart. Unless the service was
>banned, it could have some impact on national IQ even before human IQ
>ceases to matter.

Perhaps surprisingly, it only requires 4 viable zygotes to have a 50%
probability of at least one having a potential IQ greater or equal to
1 SD above the mean (R code below). It requires screening 31 to get
a > 50% probability of 2 SDs above the mean. 

BTW, why do you assume so few zygotes are viable?

frac = vector('numeric', 100)
for (j in 1:100){
   count = 0
   for (i in 1:N){
     group = rnorm(zy, 100, 15)
     if (max(group) >= 115) count = count+1
   print(c('fraction', count/N))
   frac[j] = count/N
print(c(mean(frac), sd(frac)))

   "The defendant's objections to the evidence obtained by wire-tapping must,
   in my opinion, be sustained. It is, of course, immaterial where the
   physical connection with the telephone wires leading into the defendant's
   premises was made. And it is also immaterial that the intrusion was in aid
   of law enforcement. Experience should teach us to be most on our guard to
   protect liberty when the Government's purposes are beneficent. Men born to
   freedom are naturally alert to repel invasion of their liberty by
   evil-minded rulers. The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious
   encroachment by men of zeal, well-meaning but without understanding."
     - Justice Louis D. Brandeis, dissenting, Olmstead v. United States,

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