[ExI] The Actual Visionary of the Future

Eugen Leitl eugen at leitl.org
Fri Oct 25 14:28:28 UTC 2013

On Fri, Oct 25, 2013 at 04:12:42PM +0200, Anders Sandberg wrote:

> In a sense they are ubiquitous, since they represent the transition
> from one metastable state to another. Look carefully at punctuated
> equilibrium and you will see plenty of tiny exponentials as state B
> replaces state A at an exponential pace (and then slow
> exponentially, making a rapid sigmoid). Whether you say they are
> rare or not depends on what you count: events or moments.

You're applying this to far wider scope than I intended (a couple
centuries if not decades), but even so, this is then limited to one 
observation point: this particular planet. It has seen zero exponentials 
which carried over significant times. Everything was a sigmoid.
> *Ongoing* chains of sigmoids making large scale exponentials is a

Anything exponential involving energy and atoms rapidly runs out 
of energy and/or atoms, and/or punches a hole into spacetime.
We celebrated Avogadro day a couple days ago, but even a mole
of people is very far away from infinity.

> more daring prediction from the LAR people. If that is true for our
> era, it might simply represent that we are in the phase transition
> from one stable state (unmanaged matter) to another stable state
> (managed matter). Given that it happens fairly early in the

I think we're managing the transition very poorly, so far.
I'm particular to borderline advanced technology and livable
environments. It would be a pity if something happened to it.

> universe's expected history it might just be a nucleation
> transition.

We'd better not fuck up this here nucleation event. 
The universe is counting on us not to.

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