[ExI] chilling effects

[Anders Sandberg]

On 2013-10-25 16:46, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> I have a fair chance of hiding from companies. I have very little
> chance of intelligence agencies missing even a single significant
> potential troublemaker. If you're worried if you qualify, yep,
> you definitely do. And the nail that sticks out gets hammered,
> eventually. The chilling effect is fully intended.

I am starting to think a lot of chilling effects are home-made too.

A while ago a friend told me in all sincerity that I must not criticise 
stupid aspects of Islam publicly, because I would be at a risk for 
violence. Yes, criticising a view that has some violent adherents does 
up your risk, but when you do the numbers it is clear that the actual 
risk is minuscule. Human risk biases do the real job here: a few 
well-published beheadings or FBI raids, and the availability heuristic 
will make people think there are jihadists and spooks around every corner.

But there is a more insidious aspect: our drive for attention and 
importance makes us brew chilling effects. A lot of people I meet deal 
with things that are fairly important and controversial. But most of 
what they do is, let's face it, boring low social status research or 
activism. In that situation it is easy to make what you do more 
impressive by warning about how the Powers That Be are against it and 
will stop at nothing in order to prevent their work. It is an easy claim 
(especially when it has *some* grain of truth), slots into paranoia 
receptors, and gives the desired admiration for bravery. But it also 
serves to convince a lot of people that dealing with the whole area is 
scary and dangerous, best left to the James Bond hacktivist.

Most dire warnings I hear about how the Powers are doing sinister things 
seem to be more about getting attention and playing human social games 
than actual intel. And they do damage by their chilling effects - I have 
met people who are afraid of being associated with cryptography or 
working for better intelligence oversight because they do believe the 
talk. That talk was not produced by psyops spooks, but bona fide 
crypto-activists.


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University