[ExI] Hard Drives, What Comes Next

Kelly Anderson kellycoinguy at gmail.com
Tue Oct 29 16:43:03 UTC 2013

This is an article by Mark H. Kryder and Chang Soo Kim. Kryder works for
Carnegie Melon. This was published in IEEE Transactions on Magnetics (peer
reviewed) in October 2009. Kryder is well respected enough to have a law
named after him. He was also Seagate Corp's senior vice president of
research and chief technology officer.


The first line of this article states:
MAGNETICALLY stored bits are theoretically stable in FePt at densities
approaching 100 Tb/in . With areal densities of today’s drives around 500
Gb/in , hard disk drives (HDDs) are far from fundamental limits. The
Information Storage Industry Consortium and its industrial sponsors from
the HDD industry are targeting a demonstration of an real density of 10
Tb/in in 2015. Such a technology would enable over 7 TB to be stored on a
single 2.5 inch disk, enabling a cost of the order of $3/TB for a two-disk
2.5 inch drive. Given the current 40% compound annual growth rate in areal
density, this technology should be in volume production by 2020.

A similar article was published in 2005 in Scientific American (also peer
reviewed) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Kryder

If hard drives continue to progress at their current pace, then in 2020 a
two-platter, 2.5-inch disk drive will be capable of storing more than 14
terabytes (TB) and will cost about $40.

I present this as refutation of the idea that hard drives are approaching
the end of their exponential growth, even in their current state.

SMR is apparently likely to be the next "big thing" that will keep us on
track. (At least according to this possibly self serving article)

I plan on doing a little more work in this area if I can get some matlab
help from Kasey.

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