[ExI] Silence in the sky-but why?

John Clark johnkclark at gmail.com
Thu Sep 26 15:08:44 UTC 2013

On Wed, Sep 25, 2013 Tomasz Rola <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:

> > So what? We don't need to deploy it in the coming ten years either.
> >The thing that worries me is that for the coming 10 or 20 years
> civilisation's back is barely covered. At least this is impression I get

You get that impression because you've been listening to Eugen Leitl too
much. Eugen has said some intelligent things over the years but lately when
it comes to energy issues he,..., well it would be impolite to say he's
full of shit so lets just say he has an excess of fecal material. For
example, he says we will start to run out of Uranium by 2020, but today
Uranium prices are the lowest they've been in almost 8 years. I found a
chart for the last 5 years:

[image: 5 Year Uranium Price Chart - Uranium Price Per Pound]
And so I would like to make a bet with Eugen Leitl and see if he is willing
to put his money where his mouth is. If before January 1 2020 there is
widespread reactor shutdowns because of Uranium shortages (and not due to
temper tantrums from environmentalists) then, assuming I'm still alive, I
will send Eugen Leitl $1000; if there are not widespread reactor shutdowns
because of Uranium shortages before January 1 2020 then, assuming he's
still alive, Eugen Leitl only needs to send me $100. So do we have a bet?

Come on Eugen, I'm giving you 10 to 1 odds, and you might get your $1000
next week if there are Uranium shortages next week, but there is no way I
can get my lousy $100 before 2020. And think of all the cans of baked beans
you can buy with $1000 that you will undoubtedly need for your underground
redoubt when civilization collapses shortly after 2020.

>  If you consider all politicians and other decision makers (Koch
> brothers, Gates family etc) to be green, than our
> understandings of the word is very different from each other.

Bill Gates has probably saved more lives that any other individual in
history, but he is not green thank goodness. The Koch brothers are not
green either but they are utter morons nevertheless, there is more than one
way to be dumb.

>> we will run out of Thorium in the crust of this planet in 6 billion
>> years.
> 3/4 of the crust is below water, thus a bit harder to get to

So we will run out of Thorium in 1.5 billion years. The Earth will become
uninhabitable in just 800 million years when the sun starts to run out of
hydrogen and starts to get off the main sequence.

  John K Clark
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