[ExI] BICEP2 and the Fermi paradox

[Tomaz Kristan]

> So this predicts that a random observer should predict he is in a
simulation of an early interval.

Then, he must also predict, that his simulator is also simulated! And so
on, through all the turtles/simulators?




On Fri, Apr 11, 2014 at 12:22 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com> , 10/4/2014 11:18 AM:
>
> > But is now the true year 2014, or a simulation of 2014 run in the year
> 4,982,944?
>
> Is this the true year 4,982,944 with the simulation of 2014, or just a
> simulation of all that, run in the year 4,982,945?
>
> I am not saying this (infinite) regression kills the probability of
> ancestral simulation going on. It weakens it.
>
>
> Suppose the amount of available computing power grows exponentially as
> exp(t). To run a ancestor sim you need at least that much computing power,
> so in practice you will only run simulations that are a factor F smaller,
> that is, you have a choice of civilizations from the start of time T0 to
> T-ln(F) where T is the current real time. A sim of time t will potentially
> contain simulations earlier than t-ln(F), and so on.
>
> So between T0 and T0+ln(F) there will be no ancestor sims. Between
> T0+ln(F) and T0+2ln(F) there will be simulations of the first interval.
> Between T0+2ln(F) and T0+3ln(F) there will be some simulations of the first
> interval (of which many more can be done, since they are so small), and
> some simulations of the second one (which may contain simulations of the
> first interval). In general, in interval N there can be X sims of interval
> N-1, FX simulations of N-1, F^2 X sims of N-2, or F^N X sims of interval 1.
> In addition, some of the late interval simulations contain simulations of
> earlier intervals.
>
> So in this model, it looks like we should expect an ever increasing number
> of simulations of the earlier intervals, and that the ratio between the
> early to the late is going up exponentially. So this predicts that a random
> observer should predict he is in a simulation of an early interval.
>
>
>
>
> Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford
> University
>
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