[ExI] Death follows European contact (Mirco Romanato)

[William Flynn Wallace]

Problem:  the Pinker effect, as you call it, has been going on now for a
few hundred years, most of which was lead-free.  Still, 20% of the variance
is no small thing.  A Pearson r of .40 often is quite satisfactory in
psychological studies.

 I suspect that as people get safer, they commit less violence and that may
turn off some genes, which can be passed on to their offspring a la the
epigenetic effect.  Pinker mentions epigenetics but not much, and most of
what we know about it (as far as I know) has been gathered in the last few
years.  bill w


On Tue, Apr 22, 2014 at 2:24 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

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> *>…* *On Behalf Of *Anders Sandberg
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Death follows European contact (Mirco Romanato)
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> BillK <pharos at gmail.com> , 21/4/2014 10:46 AM:
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> The BBC has an article up showing that in recent years removing lead
> from petrol leads 20 years later to a big reduction in violent crime.
> Prison and social policies make no difference - it's a medical
> problem.
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> Effect size? Causality testing? The theory is nice, but one needs to check
> for how much is explained by the lead hypothesis.
>
> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935107000503?np=y
>
> gives some data, and it definitely looks like something is going on - but
> lead is just a small (<20% of variance) part of the decline. What evidence
> does Gesch have to claim it explains 90%?... Extraordinary claims (the
> social stuff does not matter for this social outcome) require extraordinary
> evidence.  Anders Sandberg…
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> Ja.  Lead was only one of many neurotoxins extant in the years in
> question.  In the 1960s and 70s, there were so many recreational
> pharmaceuticals in popular circulation that it would be difficult to
> extract a single culprit chemical.
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> In previous discussions here, we noted that food evolves to become ever
> more irresistible.  I have the notion that recreational drugs evolve as
> well, which explains the enduring popularity of marijuana: the users of
> that particular substance are less likely to commit violent or otherwise
> illegal acts, opting more often for utterly passive inane discussions and
> harmless activities in the home.
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> In the 60s and 70s, we suffered plenty of drugs which induced their hosts
> into all manner of self-destructive and others-destructive behaviors.  I
> think lead in gasoline was a contributor, but only one of several, perhaps
> less so than good old-fashioned testosterone, so abundant in young men.
> (Visualize a dope-addled mugger.  How old is he?)  Most western cultures
> were younger in those benighted times than they are now.  Age alone might
> explain most of the Pinker Effect.
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>
> spike
>
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