[ExI] Diminishing influence of increasing carbon dioxide on temperature

spike spike66 at att.net
Sun Aug 10 21:16:01 UTC 2014



From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Max More
Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2014 11:31 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: [ExI] Diminishing influence of increasing carbon dioxide on temperature


I don't recall seeing this factor discussed here:





Max More, PhD



Cool thanks Max.  I was wondering about this when the ExI list was having those discussions a few yrs ago and I was pondering negative feedback loops to explain why the earth hadn’t ever gone into a runaway greenhouse effect in the past.  I was looking that the absorption spectra of carbon dioxide back then and came to a similar conclusion: the existing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is already absorbing most of the reflected energy it can absorb, even if there was a loooooot more CO2 released.  


I need to dig around in my green notebooks and see if I can find those calcs; I think it was from about 6 to 8 yrs ago.  At the time I looked at the negative feedback balancing the increased absorption: the radiation to space using the Stefan-Boltzmann equation.  I concluded that the reason CO2 has never caused a runaway greenhouse effect is that it cannot.  Even if CO2 retains *all* the energy in its absorption band, that T^4 term still overpowers everything else.


Granted it might get a few degrees warmer before that happens, but hey, this is a cold planet.  The estimated increase using only single digit estimates was in the 2-4 C range as I recall.  We will do more water skiing and less snow skiing.  Florida will likely look a lot different.  Might hafta move a few cities.  We can deal.  



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