[ExI] What's Wrong With Academic Futurists?

[natasha at natasha.cc]

Hi Robin!

 

Great to see you on the list.  You asked:  "There is an academic specialty
of futurism. That is, there are professors, journals, and even some
departments which specialize in that topic. Do people here often read or
cite such folks? It seems not, but then the question is why not. What is the
problem with academic futurists such that people on a future oriented list
like this aren't much interested in them?"

 

I have a MSc in this area. The most known academic master's degree in this
area is at the University of Houston
http://www.uh.edu/technology/programs/graduate/foresight/ (which changed its
degree from Future Studies to Foresight) and  University of Hawaii
http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/academic-offerings.html 

 

Here is a podcast I created many years ago (before apps, etc.)
http://www.natasha.cc/futurists.htm  Jim Dator runs the Futures program in
Hawaii, Wendy Schultz is at Cambridge (or was), and the others were
independents back then.

 

Journals: not really. The World Future Society tries to do this, but not
successfully and it is not an impressive group. Many individuals have their
own types of journals/zines, but again nothing really at your level. There
is a group, Association of Professional Futurists. I was a member for a
couple of years and left because it ended up being a tool to support one
particular set of people and not everyone http://www.profuturists.org/ .  A
smart person who is a friend of mine exemplifies what most futurists do once
they get a master's degree from Houston or Hawaii;
http://www.alsekresearch.com/joanfoltz.html

 

Criticism of futurists:  from my experience, many people think futurists are
riding on the coat-tails of innovators/entrepreneurs. The great futurists I
am grateful to have known and/or worked with are Alvin Toffler, John
Naisbitt, Buckminster Fuller and FM-2030. They were true visionaries. The
academic futurists, again from my experience, are not visionary (more
conservative types) and want to get paid by DARPA, IBM, etc. to forecast
possible futures. The techniques and models are quite good, but again it is
more a matter of statistics, mathematics, and formula strategy, which is
fine and I value. I teach a couple of courses (undergraduate and graduate)
where I use some of these methods/tools for my student's assignments.
STEEP, Environmental Scanning, SWOT, Strategy Canvas, Backcasting, etc. are
all useful and I value them.

 

Best to you and your family!

Natasha

 

 <http://www.natasha.cc/> Natasha Vita-More, PhD

 

Faculty, University of Advancing Technology

Chair, Humanity+

Fellow, Institute for Ethics & Emerging Technologies

Founder: H+Lab / H+TV

_______________________________________

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cover email

 

From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
[mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Robin D Hanson
Sent: Wednesday, January 22, 2014 3:42 PM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: [ExI] What's Wrong With Academic Futurists?

 

Howdy everyone. I've been away from this list for many years, but thought I
might try it again. I've been lurking for a few days to get a feel, but not
sure it has told me that much. So let me start out by asking a question.

 

There is an academic specialty of futurism. That is, there are professors,
journals, and even some departments which specialize in that topic. Do
people here often read or cite such folks? It seems not, but then the
question is why not. What is the problem with academic futurists such that
people on a future oriented list like this aren't much interested in them?

 

Robin Hanson  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Res. Assoc., Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford Univ.
Assoc. Professor, George Mason University

Chief Scientist, Consensus Point
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323

 

 

 

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