[ExI] What's Wrong With Academic Futurists?

[Robin D Hanson]

I said:
If we want accurate estimates of the future, why wouldn't people who want to get paid by large organizations be a good source? Why would people who use stat, math, and formula be unreliable estimators, relative to people who are visionary and innovator/entrepreneurs?  Does data on past predictions support this choice?

To elaborate, take the example of medicine. Medical innovators might be the folks who know best what seem to be the most promising new treatments. But if you want to instead predict the general nature of medicine and its social position in a half century, I'd think you'd rather listen to people who study long term trends in medicine and their causes.

Robin Hanson  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Res. Assoc., Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford Univ.
Assoc. Professor, George Mason University
Chief Scientist, Consensus Point
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323



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