[ExI] What's Wrong With Academic Futurists?

[Robin D Hanson]

On Jan 25, 2014, at 11:28 PM, Keith Henson wrote:
>> At most that helps you
>> see short term fluctuations. Futurists interested in the long term should focus
>> on long term trends and not so much short term fluctuations.
> 
> Far as I know, none of the futurists projected the rise of cell phones
> or smart phones before it happened, though the SF writers did better.
> Far as I know, none of them predicted the financial meltdown of 2008.

Well you'd also want to look at all the things SF writers forecast that *didn't* happen.
A careful analysis of which kinds of futurists did better at predicting certain kinds of
outcomes would be interesting. The fact that you aren't aware of some kinds making
certain kinds of predictions isn't interesting unless you went out of your way to look 
for them. Since we all mostly only hear what celebrities say, judging forecasts on the
basis of things that happened and who we remember forecasting them would lead
us to think celebrities are the best forecasters. 

>> These are the kind of issues I wanted to get people to talk about. If we want accurate estimates of the future, why wouldn't people who want to get paid by large organizations be a good source? Why would people who use stat, math, and formula be unreliable estimators, relative to people who are visionary and innovator/entrepreneurs?  Does data on past predictions support this choice?
> 
> If you have not read it, I suggest "The Black Swan."  ...
> 1  The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and
> rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in
> history, science, finance, and technology

The fact that some things are hard to foresee doesn't tell us who does
better at foreseeing them.

> So I take Eric Drexler seriously on his projections of radical
> abundance.  I take Ralph Merkle seriously on such topics. ...

> I work on power satellites, particularly the aspect of how to
> construct them at a cost where they make economic sense.  I cannot
> predict that they will happen.  ...
> I have thought about the future for a long time and have no confidence
> in people's ability to predict it.  Best they can do is project the
> consequences of certain things, but even there . . . .

If you have no confidence in "people's" ability to predict, I don't see how 
that can be the basis for preferring some people's ability over others.

Robin Hanson  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Res. Assoc., Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford Univ.
Assoc. Professor, George Mason University
Chief Scientist, Consensus Point
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