[ExI] What's Wrong With Academic Futurists?

[Robin D Hanson]

On Jan 26, 2014, at 8:18 PM, Keith Henson wrote:
>> If you have no confidence in "people's" ability to predict, I don't see how
>> that can be the basis for preferring some people's ability over others.
> 
> I think I said I took them seriously, over people who have not done
> any work.  Their predictions tend to be plausible, not accurate.

I can't see the point of plausibility that doesn't lead to more accuracy.

Robin Hanson  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Res. Assoc., Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford Univ.
Assoc. Professor, George Mason University
Chief Scientist, Consensus Point
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