[ExI] What's Wrong With Academic Futurists?

[spike]

>… On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
…

 

Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> , 27/1/2014 6:41 PM:

On Sun, Jan 26, 2014 at 10:39 AM, Robin D Hanson <rhanson at gmu.edu> wrote:

 

>>…I've given talks to military futurist groups before, FYI.

 

>…If the military has an accurate view of the future, they sure don't seem to be sharing that information with the rest of government. Sad that…Anders Sandberg…

 

Anders the military has a particular type of view of the future which is more specific than the general view or technological view that is of interest to guys like us.  They cannot share the info, for that would negate a lot of what they are trying to do, and interfere with their responsibility.

 

For instance, a military futurist writes about a potential hotspot in a poverty-stricken South American nation where his country has a mineral processing facility.  The futurist often has a staff and a means of finding out things you and I cannot access.  She can look around at a nearby anthracite mine for instance, and know what happens in that area when a coal mine gives out: the workers riot and attack nearby foreign-owned mines, where things are going fine.  The futurist can issue command “Lieutenant, please find me figures on the output of that coal mine, along with an estimate of the number of workers employed, then use that to create a model for predicted time to exhaustion of the resource.”

 

The military futurist has no greater insight that we do on unexpected disruptive technologies, but she has a great deal of insight on how to deal with it for her specific task: security.

 

Regarding their not sharing with the rest of the government, most of what they do must be kept secret in order to maintain its value for security purposes.  Most in the government do not have clearances, and even if they do, leaks occur anyway.  So if you have a report, as in the previous example, which suggests an anthracite mine will give out in four years and the idled workers may riot, increasing the risk they will attack your facility, it is clear why that must be kept secret: you get your defenses in place ahead of time.

 

spike

 

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