From painlord2k at libero.it Tue Jul 1 12:34:54 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Tue, 01 Jul 2014 14:34:54 +0200 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: References: <010301cf93bd$03a17a50$0ae46ef0$@att.net> <53B169BE.207@libero.it> <010101cf9480$34414050$9cc3c0f0$@att.net> <013901cf9490$ce8c0cc0$6ba42640$@att.net> <003b01cf94ab$4757d250$d60776f0$@att.net> Message-ID: <53B2AAEE.9060900@libero.it> Il 01/07/2014 00:13, William Flynn Wallace ha scritto: > ?they hate the Tea Party, regardless of which side of the political > spectrum that party inhabits. So the IRS took action to destroy the Tea > Party.? > ?Where are you getting this information? I have seen nothing to > indicate that they selectively audited tea party groups. It would not > surprise me, though. Nobody is not playing dirty politics. Apparently they didn't selectively audited them, they selectively slowed down the process to grant them exemptions. Given the Tea Party is against taxes and the IRS is the organism deputed to raise them, the hostilities are not surprising. > You gotta admit that Obama must be really frustrated. The number of > appointments that the Repubs have not acted on is unprecedentedly large, > and some have sat for over two years. No good reason for that - just > spite and smallness, meanness, not worthy of elected officials at any > level. The Supreme Court gave him his comeuppance on recess > appointments. ? > ?Who can give the Repubs their comeuppance on blocking government > appointments?? > ? It is a very old tradition that the president gets to select his > cabinet, judges, and more, and only if there is very serious reasons to > stop them should they be stopped.? Tradition or not tradition, Republicans and Democrats have no duty to approve or reject the names any POTUS choose. My understanding of the checks and balances put in the US Constitutions is they were designed to stop the government from acting out of control. If two branches do not agree, there is a stall. And the stall will last until they agree. If this need years, let it be so. If it need some representatives to lose their seat and new representatives to be elected, let it be. If the reasons to approve someone are serious or not let it be decided by the people doing the approval. If the voters are unsatisfied by the people they elected, the voters will change them. It is not the business of the POTUS to bypass the legislative because it is expedient. Maybe "the people" will decide to change the POTUS instead to change Senators and Representatives. Or maybe "the people" want to keep the legislative branch as is, the executive as is and is happy they are unable to agree about some nominations. The Federal Government is not there by, for and to "The People"? If two branches do not agree is the task of "The People" to solve the problem. Mirco From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 1 13:19:30 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 1 Jul 2014 08:19:30 -0500 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: <53B2AAEE.9060900@libero.it> References: <010301cf93bd$03a17a50$0ae46ef0$@att.net> <53B169BE.207@libero.it> <010101cf9480$34414050$9cc3c0f0$@att.net> <013901cf9490$ce8c0cc0$6ba42640$@att.net> <003b01cf94ab$4757d250$d60776f0$@att.net> <53B2AAEE.9060900@libero.it> Message-ID: ?If two branches do not agree is the task of "The People" to solve the problem. Mirco Well, that's the problem, isn't it? We keep electing the same sorts of people, because those are the ones whom the parties put up and the lobbyists and pacs fund. "The People" don't really have choices in most cases. Independents can't get much funding. Parties run the show. I think Nevada has some sort of law in some elections where people can vote for 'none of these', and if no one gets a majority the parties have to put up other candidates. I think this is a splendid idea. I think Congress does have a duty to fill positions in government. Many courts are backlogged because Congress won't vote on judges to fill the positions. I don't think you can convince me that the GOP has serious issues with every single person Obama has proposed for a job. It's spite. Obstructionism. Pettiness. ? ?bill w? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Tue Jul 1 16:14:00 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Tue, 01 Jul 2014 18:14:00 +0200 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: References: <010301cf93bd$03a17a50$0ae46ef0$@att.net> <53B169BE.207@libero.it> <010101cf9480$34414050$9cc3c0f0$@att.net> <013901cf9490$ce8c0cc0$6ba42640$@att.net> <003b01cf94ab$4757d250$d60776f0$@att.net> <53B2AAEE.9060900@libero.it> Message-ID: <53B2DE48.6050809@libero.it> Il 01/07/2014 15:19, William Flynn Wallace ha scritto: > ?If two branches do not agree is the task of "The People" to solve the > problem. > > Mirco > > Well, that's the problem, isn't it? "The People" is always the problem. They continue to do what they want and not what their leaders want (for their greater good). > We keep electing the same sorts of people, because those are the ones > whom the parties put up and the lobbyists and pacs fund. "The People" > don't really have choices in most cases. Independents can't get much > funding. Parties run the show. I think Nevada has some sort of law in > some elections where people can vote for 'none of these', and if no one > gets a majority the parties have to put up other candidates. I think > this is a splendid idea. :-) The fact they are and must stay unable to fill the positions without an agreement is because "The People" will be forced to change them and vote someone else. > I think Congress does have a duty to fill positions in government. Maybe. It is written somewhere? But have they a duty to fill the positions in government with the candidates picked up by the POTUS? > Many > courts are backlogged because Congress won't vote on judges to fill the > positions. I don't think you can convince me that the GOP has serious > issues with every single person Obama has proposed for a job. It's > spite. Obstructionism. Pettiness. Maybe they have serious issues with them BECAUSE they were named by Obama. If they are chosen with the same degree of partisanship Obama choose his administration, all would be not acceptable to any opposition party. Mirco From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 1 16:37:36 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 1 Jul 2014 11:37:36 -0500 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: <53B2DE48.6050809@libero.it> References: <010301cf93bd$03a17a50$0ae46ef0$@att.net> <53B169BE.207@libero.it> <010101cf9480$34414050$9cc3c0f0$@att.net> <013901cf9490$ce8c0cc0$6ba42640$@att.net> <003b01cf94ab$4757d250$d60776f0$@att.net> <53B2AAEE.9060900@libero.it> <53B2DE48.6050809@libero.it> Message-ID: ?If they are chosen with the same degree of partisanship Obama choose his administration, all would be not acceptable to any opposition party. ? Mirco We are dealing with tradition here. GOP presidents name conservative judges to the Supreme Court and Demo liberal ones. Ditto other jobs. Only when the candidate is very left or right do we get problems with the votes for. A candidate will NEVER be acceptable to the opposition party, only just not very very bad. Only the president can name people to the positions we are talking about. So the choices are always 'wrong' according to the opposition. Yet they eventually give the president most of what he wants, because if they don't, the next time they are in power retaliation will occur. bill w _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Tue Jul 1 17:54:11 2014 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Tue, 1 Jul 2014 13:54:11 -0400 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: <003b01cf94ab$4757d250$d60776f0$@att.net> References: <010301cf93bd$03a17a50$0ae46ef0$@att.net> <53B169BE.207@libero.it> <010101cf9480$34414050$9cc3c0f0$@att.net> <013901cf9490$ce8c0cc0$6ba42640$@att.net> <003b01cf94ab$4757d250$d60776f0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Jun 30, 2014 at 5:35 PM, spike wrote: > Here?s where I would go with the comparisons: both Bush and Obama expanded > executive branch powers. This makes me nervous since the 16 amendment is > written in such a way as to be very open-ended. The constitution was > carefully designed with checks and balances on government power in place, > but the IRS is an example of a bureaucracy not bound by the rules and > regulations which apply to criminal cases. For instance, if you are > arrested, you are presumed innocent. The IRS does not presume you > innocent. If they come after you, it is your job to prove your innocence, > rather than their job to prove your guilt. They get to decide if your > evidence is sufficient to prove your innocence. They are both the > prosecutor and the judge. Good luck. > Clearly the system the founders designed is broken. It was a good effort, but I don't think what they tried to achieve is possible. At least we've identified one more way not to achieve it. > Next, consider the EPA, the CIA, the NSA, and fill in the blank with as > much alphabet soup as you want. The NSA doesn?t bother with all those > messy constitutional restrictions on their power. (Hi NSA guy reading our > email!) These bureaucracies form a shadow government which has a lot more > power in some important ways than the actual government, and it all answers > to the executive branch. > Does it? J. Edgar had enough dirt on everyone that he didn't really have to answer to anyone. You think the spooks don't have even more dirt on Obama? -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From mail at harveynewstrom.com Tue Jul 1 18:13:45 2014 From: mail at harveynewstrom.com (Harvey Newstrom) Date: Tue, 01 Jul 2014 11:13:45 -0700 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: <00c601cf94b5$a4b1f070$ee15d150$@att.net> Message-ID: <20140701111345.d32794d095cdfcc0018508d9c136b552.d60eec3462.mailapi@email09.secureserver.net> On 6/30/14 6:50 pm, Spike wrote: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/irs-apologizes-targeting-conservative-groups http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/04/23/1294061/-IRS-Targeted-Progressive-Groups-MORE-than-Tea-Party -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Jul 1 19:31:16 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 1 Jul 2014 12:31:16 -0700 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: <20140701111345.d32794d095cdfcc0018508d9c136b552.d60eec3462.mailapi@email09.secureserver.net> References: <00c601cf94b5$a4b1f070$ee15d150$@att.net> <20140701111345.d32794d095cdfcc0018508d9c136b552.d60eec3462.mailapi@email09.secureserver.net> Message-ID: <019f01cf9563$07adb800$17092800$@att.net> >? On Behalf Of Harvey Newstrom Subject: Re: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? On 6/30/14 6:50 pm, Spike wrote: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/irs-apologizes-targeting-conservative-groups >?http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/04/23/1294061/-IRS-Targeted-Progressive-Groups-MORE-than-Tea-Party Ja! I don?t understand why the progressive groups aren?t looking for some scalps. This is an opportunity for left, right, and up-wings to join hands and fight against the down-wing forces of evil. The IRS still hasn?t apologized for targeting progressive groups. That should really steam the left. >From the article: ??The manufactured IRS scandal has already been largely debunked, but this should be the final nail in its coffin. Cheers?? Now all we need to know is who manufactured the video that appears to be Lois Lerner pleading the fifth, when she wasn?t even under indictment. What felony is she trying to cover and why did she lie right up front by saying she did nothing illegal? If she did nothing illegal, why did she plead the fifth? Cheers. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 1 19:53:37 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 1 Jul 2014 14:53:37 -0500 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: <019f01cf9563$07adb800$17092800$@att.net> References: <00c601cf94b5$a4b1f070$ee15d150$@att.net> <20140701111345.d32794d095cdfcc0018508d9c136b552.d60eec3462.mailapi@email09.secureserver.net> <019f01cf9563$07adb800$17092800$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 1, 2014 at 2:31 PM, spike wrote: > > > > > *>?* *On Behalf Of *Harvey Newstrom > > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? > > > > On 6/30/14 6:50 pm, Spike wrote: > > http://bigstory.ap.org/article/irs-apologizes-targeting-conservative-groups > > >? > http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/04/23/1294061/-IRS-Targeted-Progressive-Groups-MORE-than-Tea-Party > > Ja! I don?t understand why the progressive groups aren?t looking for some > scalps. This is an opportunity for left, right, and up-wings to join hands > and fight against the down-wing forces of evil. The IRS still hasn?t > apologized for targeting progressive groups. That should really steam the > left. > > From the article: > > ??The manufactured IRS scandal has already been largely debunked, but this > should be the final nail in its coffin. Cheers?? > > Now all we need to know is who manufactured the video that appears to be > Lois Lerner pleading the fifth, when she wasn?t even under indictment. > What felony is she trying to cover and why did she lie right up front by > saying she did nothing illegal? If she did nothing illegal, why did she > plead the fifth? > > Cheers. > > spike > > > > ? > ?Since there seems to a lot of financial hankypanky in politics these > days, why NOT target all groups, right, left, middle, religious, etc.? > bill w? > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Tue Jul 1 21:01:01 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Tue, 01 Jul 2014 23:01:01 +0200 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: References: <010301cf93bd$03a17a50$0ae46ef0$@att.net> <53B169BE.207@libero.it> <010101cf9480$34414050$9cc3c0f0$@att.net> <013901cf9490$ce8c0cc0$6ba42640$@att.net> <003b01cf94ab$4757d250$d60776f0$@att.net> Message-ID: <53B3218D.1040301@libero.it> Il 01/07/2014 19:54, Dave Sill ha scritto: > On Mon, Jun 30, 2014 at 5:35 PM, spike > wrote: > > Here?s where I would go with the comparisons: both Bush and Obama > expanded executive branch powers. This makes me nervous since the > 16 amendment is written in such a way as to be very open-ended. The > constitution was carefully designed with checks and balances on > government power in place, but the IRS is an example of a > bureaucracy not bound by the rules and regulations which apply to > criminal cases. For instance, if you are arrested, you are presumed > innocent. The IRS does not presume you innocent. If they come > after you, it is your job to prove your innocence, rather than their > job to prove your guilt. They get to decide if your evidence is > sufficient to prove your innocence. They are both the prosecutor > and the judge. Good luck. > > Clearly the system the founders designed is broken. It was a good > effort, but I don't think what they tried to achieve is possible. At > least we've identified one more way not to achieve it. The system failing now it is a bit different from the system they designed. Amendments were done and not all were wise. I would suggest to repel them like Prohibition ism were repealed. > ____ > > Next, consider the EPA, the CIA, the NSA, and fill in the blank with > as much alphabet soup as you want. The NSA doesn?t bother with all > those messy constitutional restrictions on their power. (Hi NSA guy > reading our email!) These bureaucracies form a shadow government > which has a lot more power in some important ways than the actual > government, and it all answers to the executive branch. > > Does it? J. Edgar had enough dirt on everyone that he didn't really have > to answer to anyone. You think the spooks don't have even more dirt on > Obama? I suppose the Birth Certificate is enough. But probably his University documents are damning, also. Mirco From mail at harveynewstrom.com Fri Jul 4 02:04:33 2014 From: mail at harveynewstrom.com (Harvey Newstrom) Date: Thu, 3 Jul 2014 22:04:33 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The meaning of life revisited In-Reply-To: References: <2622074498-15648@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <002d01cf972c$4ca32830$e5e97890$@harveynewstrom.com> On Saturday, June 14, 2014 6:18 PM, BillK wrote, > There's a best-seller book about that. > Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. > There was also a documentary on BBC TV about this. > > slow-by-daniel-kahneman-10272011.html> This was an excellent book. It explains most people's non-thinking reactions day to day. And it really is based on statistical analysis and scientific results. It is not just a pop psychology theory of how the brain works. It is real scientific research results showing what our brains really do. And they don't work as logically as people like to think! -- Harvey Newstrom www.HarveyNewstrom.com From mail at harveynewstrom.com Fri Jul 4 02:10:02 2014 From: mail at harveynewstrom.com (Harvey Newstrom) Date: Thu, 3 Jul 2014 22:10:02 -0400 Subject: [ExI] be nice to leftists In-Reply-To: <4C5EC72C-83B4-495A-A453-BF0B97EE3BE3@alumni.virginia.edu> References: <4C5EC72C-83B4-495A-A453-BF0B97EE3BE3@alumni.virginia.edu> Message-ID: <002e01cf972d$11156110$33402330$@harveynewstrom.com> On Jun 14, 2014, at 2:30 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote, > ### Over 90% of the wielders of power in our society (Federal > employees, elite university faculty and administrators, mainstream > journalists, public intellectuals) are culturally leftist. I think you are just over-counting "leftist" types of power with these examples. You do not mention corporate fat cats, Wallstreet brokers, bankers, police, military, religious leaders, organized crime, and other power-hungry groups that are culturally "rightist". There are power-hungry people all across the political spectrum and in all walks of life. -- Harvey Newstrom www.HarveyNewstrom.com From ilia.stambler at gmail.com Fri Jul 4 15:18:37 2014 From: ilia.stambler at gmail.com (Ilia Stambler) Date: Fri, 4 Jul 2014 16:18:37 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Promoting Longevity Research on October 1, the International Day of Older Persons Message-ID: Dear friends, Please notice the current initiative to organize events on biology of aging and longevity on or around October 1, the International Day of Older Persons ? in order to bring the subject of longevity research widely into the mainstream. If you are interested to support this initiative or organize an event, please contact us. http://longevityalliance.org/Projects/TabId/105/ArtMID/504/ArticleID/53/Promoting-longevity-research-on-the-1st-of-October-the-International-Day-of-Older-Persons.aspx Thank you! Ilia Stambler ilia.stambler at gmail.com -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sat Jul 5 05:46:25 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 4 Jul 2014 22:46:25 -0700 Subject: [ExI] gnab gib Message-ID: <013d01cf9814$761bb950$62532bf0$@att.net> OK so for the non-USians present, today was our annual celebration of American Independence, when we indulge in all the usual patriotic conniptions, enough to make one want to load up one?s smooth bore musket and shoot a redcoat. It is all great fun, but even the most hardcore USian knows it can get a bit monotonous, always the same thing: fireworks show, bombastic music and fiery patriotic speeches with the rockets red glare, the bombs bursting in air and so forth. I just returned from the local show, where I had a cool idea. In modern fireworks shows, the rockets are ignited electronically in a preset sequence, to stay synchronized with the music and the speech, both of which are pre-recorded, leaving nothing to chance. So imagine putting together the show, then playing the whole show backwards. Start out with the grand finale first, as Sousa?s Stars and Stripes Forever blasts out its dramatic piccolo and trombone coda in reverse, followed by fireworks growing farther apart and more lame as the music settles into the more sedate America the Beautiful played backwards, all while some incomprehensible szheep szhoop fleem blorsh babble comes over the speakers and puzzled audience members look at each other, from the oldest geezer to the smallest child asking the same question: whaaaat in the helllll??? Record the whole thing on a digital camera. Then before posting it on YouTube, you reverse the recording. Now the show is almost right: the music is right, the grand finale is back where it is supposed to be at the end with the lame fireworks first, the speech is perfectly understandable, but you now have all these fireworks doing strange things indeed. This could all be in the double reversed speech: ??and now we shall see a truly innovative show, as the clever pyro-technicians from gnaB giB demonstrate how they have created fireworks which converge from all parts of the sky into a point, then decelerate towards the earth, sucking up sparks and smoke, settling into their launch tubes?? Puzzled audience members make comments such as: ???llllleh eht ni taaaahw. Wouldn?t that be fun and different? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sjv2006 at gmail.com Sat Jul 5 17:20:09 2014 From: sjv2006 at gmail.com (Stephen Van Sickle) Date: Sat, 5 Jul 2014 10:20:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] gnab gib In-Reply-To: <013d01cf9814$761bb950$62532bf0$@att.net> References: <013d01cf9814$761bb950$62532bf0$@att.net> Message-ID: How 'bout this: Fireworks filmed with a drone: http://youtu.be/a9KZ3jgbbmI Parts of it are like what you have in mind. It's kind of like taking flack over Berlin, but from kinder, gentler Nazis who want you to have a nice show. s On Jul 4, 2014 11:01 PM, "spike" wrote: > > > OK so for the non-USians present, today was our annual celebration of > American Independence, when we indulge in all the usual patriotic > conniptions, enough to make one want to load up one?s smooth bore musket > and shoot a redcoat. It is all great fun, but even the most hardcore USian > knows it can get a bit monotonous, always the same thing: fireworks show, > bombastic music and fiery patriotic speeches with the rockets red glare, > the bombs bursting in air and so forth. > > > > I just returned from the local show, where I had a cool idea. > > > > In modern fireworks shows, the rockets are ignited electronically in a > preset sequence, to stay synchronized with the music and the speech, both > of which are pre-recorded, leaving nothing to chance. So imagine putting > together the show, then playing the whole show backwards. Start out with > the grand finale first, as Sousa?s Stars and Stripes Forever blasts out its > dramatic piccolo and trombone coda in reverse, followed by fireworks > growing farther apart and more lame as the music settles into the more > sedate America the Beautiful played backwards, all while some > incomprehensible szheep szhoop fleem blorsh babble comes over the speakers > and puzzled audience members look at each other, from the oldest geezer to > the smallest child asking the same question: whaaaat in the helllll??? > > > > Record the whole thing on a digital camera. Then before posting it on > YouTube, you reverse the recording. Now the show is almost right: the > music is right, the grand finale is back where it is supposed to be at the > end with the lame fireworks first, the speech is perfectly understandable, > but you now have all these fireworks doing strange things indeed. This > could all be in the double reversed speech: ??and now we shall see a truly > innovative show, as the clever pyro-technicians from gnaB giB demonstrate > how they have created fireworks which converge from all parts of the sky > into a point, then decelerate towards the earth, sucking up sparks and > smoke, settling into their launch tubes?? Puzzled audience members make > comments such as: ???llllleh eht ni taaaahw. > > > > Wouldn?t that be fun and different? > > > > spike > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sat Jul 5 17:50:32 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sat, 5 Jul 2014 13:50:32 -0400 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? Message-ID: Everybody agrees that huge amounts of radiation are harmful or fatal, especially if received virtually instantaneously as in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but do more moderate amounts received much more slowly really increase the likelihood of getting cancer and death years later? All our public policy regarding nuclear power is based on the assumption that the answer is yes, in particular it is assumed that the linear no threshold (LNT) theory is correct. But is it? If death rates were always linear and it was known that there was a 50% chance that when people were hit in the head with a 3 pound iron ball moving at 20 mph they would die then if a million people were hit in the head with a iron ball 6000 times less massive you?d expect about 83 people to die, but in actuality a .008 ounce BB moving at 20 mph wouldn?t even break the skin and nobody would die. It doesn?t work for iron balls but is the LNT theory correct for radiation? For obvious ethical reasons there isn't a lot of data on this subject but there is some. The natural background radiation of the Rocky Mountain states in the USA is 3.2 times higher than in the Gulf States, and yet the cancer death rate in the Gulf States is 1.26 times HIGHER than in the Rocky Mountain states. Radiologists spend their lives exposed to X rays, but they have less cancer and a lower death rate than other physicians. People who became radiologists between 1955 and 1970 had a 29% lower cancer rate and a 32% lower death rate than non-radiologist physicians. In 1983 steel bars used in the construction of 180 apartment buildings in Taiwan were accidentally contaminated with Cobalt 60, it took about a decade for this to be discovered and in the meantime 10,000 people were exposed and some residents received as much as 500 millisieverts per year, the average was 50; by comparison the natural background level is only 3.3 millisieverts. In a group of people that large you?d expect that 232 would die from cancer by now, and if the LNT theory is true you?d expect 70 additional would die due to the excess radiation, so there should have been 302 deaths from cancer; but the astonishing thing is that only 7 people died of cancer. In addition the LNT theory predicts there should have been 46 birth defects, but the actual number was 3. A study was done on 71,000 people who were shipyard workers between 1957 and 1981, they were divided into 3 categories, a high dose group received more than 0.5 rem, a low dose group that received less than that, and a control group of shipyard workers that didn?t work on nuclear ships and so received no excess radiation. Actuarial studies show that the high radiation group had a 25% LOWER death rate than the control no radiation group; the low radiation group had a bigger death rate than the high radiation group but it was still lower than the zero radiation control group of shipyard workers. These results are the exact opposite of what the LNT theory predicts and incredibly it seems to indicate that modest amounts of radiation received over a long period of time can actually be beneficial. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sat Jul 5 20:21:44 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 5 Jul 2014 13:21:44 -0700 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Jul 5, 2014 at 10:50 AM, John Clark wrote: > Everybody agrees that huge amounts of radiation are harmful or fatal, > especially if received virtually instantaneously as in Hiroshima and > Nagasaki > Most of the instant fatalities were due to heat and pressure. Radiation was only a problem for the survivors. > These results are the exact opposite of what the LNT theory predicts and > incredibly it seems to indicate that modest amounts of radiation received > over a long period of time can actually be beneficial. > Yep. Of course we're talking relatively *very* small amounts. Also, https://xkcd.com/radiation/ and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_equivalent_dose should be required reading for any politician who wants to set policy on radiation - and preferably any commentator who wishes to shape public opinion about it. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Sun Jul 6 10:20:19 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sun, 6 Jul 2014 12:20:19 +0200 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <186698296-663@secure.ericade.net> There are *lots* of potential confounders in Johns examples - the Rocky Mountains may have more radiation but might have less mold toxins. Radiologist is a fairly high prestige occupation, lowering cancer rate because of social status. Shipworkers on nuclear ships no doubt both got training and likely were a selected group. Were the people in the Taiwanese buildings average people or different? And so on. Radiation epidemiology is pretty messy, because these complications show up all over the place.? Linear no threshold models are practical because they are simple: just try to minimize the stuff, assume large reductions are better than small reductions. But yes, people are too scared of anything with any radiation.? Hormesis, that small radiation doses might be helpful in killing off precancerous cells, is a real thing. But you don't want to rely on it, since there could well be big individual variations in ideal exposure, easily swamped by individual exposure variation.? When Monte Carlo-simulating insurance risk, one typically use a hazard module that generate random disasters with severity and location set by observed probabilities (and various assumptions). This random disaster is sent to the damage module, which calculates the damage a particular building takes from it: this is a random outcome determined by a "vulnerability function" which is actually a probability distribution dependent on how severe the disaster is and what kind of building it is. When you look at actual data for windstorms and many other perils it is incredibly noisy: the amount of damage is more or less evenly distributed between 0 and some upper limit that tends to curve up as a parabola until you reach saturation. I expect the same thing for radiation risk: the hazard (radiation exposure) is converted into a random outcome (health) in a fairly nonlinear way, and even people with big exposures can come out scotfree. Meanwhile, just as in insurance, the actual risk is a sum of a lot of sources/perils. So you have to combine the risks of asbestos, air pollution, lifestyle and whatnot to get a proper cancer risk - not very useful in the individual case, but averaged across a population it can help set policy.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Jul 6 16:36:47 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 6 Jul 2014 12:36:47 -0400 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: <186698296-663@secure.ericade.net> References: <186698296-663@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 6, 2014 at 6:20 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > There are *lots* of potential confounders in Johns examples - the Rocky > Mountains may have more radiation but might have less mold toxins. > Maybe, although I have no evidence that mold toxins are such a major source of cancer that they overwhelm radiation as a cause of cancer. > Radiologist is a fairly high prestige occupation, lowering cancer rate > because of social status. > The comparison was made between radiologist and other doctors; are radiologist more prestigious than heart surgeons or neurologists or physicians with other specialties? > Shipworkers on nuclear ships no doubt both got training and likely were a > selected group. > The sample size was very large and the comparison was made with other shipyard workers who just didn't happen to work on nuclear ships. Can you think of a better control group that should have been used? And I think it's interesting that the high radiation workers live longer than the low radiation workers (although the low radiation workers still lived longer than the zero radiation workers). > > Were the people in the Taiwanese buildings average people or different? > Again the sample size was very large and the control group were other Taiwanese people of a similar age who didn't live in those buildings, I know of no reason the people in those buildings were special. And we're not talking about some little quirk subtly shifting the statistics, this effect is HUGE! The LNT theory predicts 302 deaths but the actual number was 7. If this were about any other subject evidence this strong would be more than enough to kill a theory, but the LNT theory is based on radiation danger and fear is a powerful emotion that can not always be stopped by logic. > Linear no threshold models are practical because they are simple > Simple it may be but it's not practical if it's not true and I am not aware of any evidence that small amounts of radiation given over a long period of time increases the cancer rate or the death rate in general; in fact all the available evidence points in exactly the opposite direction. > since there could well be big individual variations in ideal exposure, > easily swamped by individual exposure variation. Possible yes but easily? What are the chances that 10,000 people who have nothing obviously in common (except that they are all Taiwanese) are ENORMOUSLY more resistant to cancer than the average Taiwanese? > > When you look at actual data for windstorms and many other perils it is > incredibly noisy: the amount of damage is more or less evenly distributed > between 0 and some upper limit that tends to curve up as a parabola until > you reach saturation. I expect the same thing for radiation risk: the > hazard (radiation exposure) is converted into a random outcome (health) in > a fairly nonlinear way, and even people with big exposures can come out > scotfree. > But why doesn't it ever come out the other way? Why can't anybody find studies where small amounts of radiation received over a long amount of time produced more cancers than the LNT theory predicts, why is it always less, a lot less? And yes a tornado can destroy a house and leave the one next door undamaged, but if none of the houses receive any damage then I'd have to conclude that everybody couldn't be that lucky and the tornado just wasn't very big. And what am I to conclude if the tornado actually strengthened the roof of a house? John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sun Jul 6 16:25:00 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 6 Jul 2014 09:25:00 -0700 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: <186698296-663@secure.ericade.net> References: <186698296-663@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <020901cf9936$d7000460$85000d20$@att.net> >? On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg >?Subject: Re: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? >?Linear no threshold models are practical because they are simple: just try to minimize the stuff, assume large reductions are better than small reductions. But yes, people are too scared of anything with any radiation?Anders Sandberg Ja, Anders, people worry too much about radiation and not enough about some really plausible threats. Example: my parents had cows. The neighbor to the west had a plum orchard. Eriophyrid mite infestation, he panicked, sprayed parathion and methidathion when the conditions weren?t right for it; for starters it was too breezy and the wind was coming west to east that day. Never mind that spraying that stuff under those conditions was illegal, it happened. We could smell the parathion, so we got outta Dodge that day, but the cows didn?t. So we had a known carcinogen which was introduced into the food chain. Our solution was to get out of the cow biz, and good riddance to the mooey bastards, but you know that kind of thing is common in farm country. Profit margins are razor thin, and farmers use what they know works. You know they stretch the rules or ignore them outright. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Jul 6 17:02:08 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 6 Jul 2014 13:02:08 -0400 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Jul 5, 2014 at 4:21 PM, Adrian Tymes wrote: >> Everybody agrees that huge amounts of radiation are harmful or fatal, >> especially if received virtually instantaneously as in Hiroshima and >> Nagasaki >> > > > Most of the instant fatalities were due to heat and pressure. Radiation > was only a problem for the survivors. > The survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were unique in that they received their radiation virtually instantaneously, it is probably far more dangerous to receive radiation in that way because the cells have no time to make repairs; even so the survivors didn't develop more solid cancers than the average Japanese unless they received more than 100 millisieverts, and they didn't have a larger chance of getting leukemia unless they got more than 200 millisieverts. By comparison the average resident of this planet receives 2.4 millisieverts from background radiation, but they received that radiation over the course of a full year not in a fraction of a second as the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki did. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sun Jul 6 17:18:47 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 6 Jul 2014 10:18:47 -0700 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: <186698296-663@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 6, 2014 at 9:36 AM, John Clark wrote: > On Sun, Jul 6, 2014 at 6:20 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > >> > Linear no threshold models are practical because they are simple >> > > Simple it may be but it's not practical if it's not true > This. This so much. That it is false, and the areas in which it is most notably false, leads directly to the biggest problem with attempting to implement peaceful (i.e. non-deliberate-bomb) uses of nuclear technology. (Note taht I have to add "deliberate" in there because some people say that any nuclear power plant is a bomb just waiting to go off, just look at Chernobyl and its radioactive steam explosion - nevermind that this is a wholly different thing than was used at Hiroshima and Nagasaki.) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Mon Jul 7 16:52:49 2014 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2014 09:52:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? Message-ID: There is a mechanism that might account for the data on radiation and cancer. It seem that virtually everyone has antibodies against leukemia, except the people who have it. It might be that a small or even a medium amount of radiation primes the immune system against cancer. Research into this would be cheap and easy, but not likely to be funded since it goes against the popular grain of thought on radiation. Keith From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Jul 7 17:25:15 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2014 13:25:15 -0400 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 7, 2014 at 12:52 PM, Keith Henson wrote: > Research into this would be cheap and easy, I think it would be difficult to get large numbers of people to agree to be exposed to radiation for a study, so we must rely on accidental exposures. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Mon Jul 7 17:30:06 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2014 10:30:06 -0700 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <004501cf9a09$18d0bd30$4a723790$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Keith Henson Subject: Re: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? >...There is a mechanism that might account for the data on radiation and cancer. >...It seem that virtually everyone has antibodies against leukemia, except the people who have it. >...It might be that a small or even a medium amount of radiation primes the immune system against cancer. >...Research into this would be cheap and easy, but not likely to be funded since it goes against the popular grain of thought on radiation...Keith _______________________________________________ I am surprised this theory hasn't gained wide acceptance. Radiation would be nature's own version of inoculation. Those who oppose all forms of radiation would be analogous to the growing movement in opposition to inoculation. spike From atymes at gmail.com Mon Jul 7 17:43:46 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2014 10:43:46 -0700 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Jul 7, 2014 10:25 AM, "John Clark" wrote: > On Mon, Jul 7, 2014 at 12:52 PM, Keith Henson wrote: >> > Research into this would be cheap and easy, > > I think it would be difficult to get large numbers of people to agree to be exposed to radiation for a study, so we must rely on accidental exposures. Use animal experiments. This isn't anywhere close to human-specific mechanisms being tested, so the results transfer readily. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Mon Jul 7 17:50:39 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2014 18:50:39 +0100 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 7, 2014 at 6:25 PM, John Clark wrote: > On Mon, Jul 7, 2014 at 12:52 PM, Keith Henson wrote: >> > Research into this would be cheap and easy, > > I think it would be difficult to get large numbers of people to agree to be > exposed to radiation for a study, so we must rely on accidental exposures. > > The radiation hormesis speculation only considers low doses of ionizing radiation within the region of natural background radiation levels. So populations in those areas of natural higher background radiation could be studied. Although as Anders mentioned, excluding other factors from the study would be difficult. Another problem might be - what type and duration of radiation? Ionizing radiation includes alpha particles, beta particles and neutrons, as well as mesons that constitute cosmic rays. These have different penetrative power to affect the human body. If radiation hormesis exists, it might not be a whole body effect. It might only affect certain organs or the immune system. Looks like a long research project. BillK From msd001 at gmail.com Mon Jul 7 19:02:59 2014 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2014 15:02:59 -0400 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 7, 2014 at 1:50 PM, BillK wrote: > The radiation hormesis speculation only considers low doses of > ionizing radiation within the region of natural background radiation > levels. So populations in those areas of natural higher background > radiation could be studied. > > Although as Anders mentioned, excluding other factors from the study > would be difficult. > > Another problem might be - what type and duration of radiation? > Ionizing radiation includes alpha particles, beta particles and > neutrons, as well as mesons that constitute cosmic rays. These have > different penetrative power to affect the human body. If radiation > hormesis exists, it might not be a whole body effect. It might only > affect certain organs or the immune system. > > Looks like a long research project. Lots of people get xrays, is that sufficient amount of radiation to have noticeable effect? Though health information is unavailable for casual data mining. From dan_ust at yahoo.com Mon Jul 7 19:29:49 2014 From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan) Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2014 12:29:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Not necessarily Extropian, but it's science fiction... Message-ID: <1404761389.93340.YahooMailNeo@web161603.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> My short story "The Hills of Rendome" is now available for Kindle at: http://www.amazon.com/Hills-Rendome-Dan-Ust-ebook/dp/B00LIIVLO2/ It's free until midnight PST. Not really Extropian-themed. This is more space operaish stuff. Anyhow, figured promoting it here wouldn't be too far off topic. ? Regards, Dan From pharos at gmail.com Mon Jul 7 20:56:55 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2014 21:56:55 +0100 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 7, 2014 at 8:02 PM, Mike Dougherty wrote: > Lots of people get xrays, is that sufficient amount of radiation to > have noticeable effect? > > No. A chest X-ray is negligible. CT scans are more. >From cancer.org ----- The average American is exposed to about 3 mSv (millisieverts) of radiation from natural sources over the course of a year. Much of this exposure is from radon, a natural gas with levels that vary from one part of the country to another. For example, because the earth's atmosphere blocks some cosmic rays, living at a higher altitude increases a person's exposure - residents in the plateaus of New Mexico and Colorado, have an annual exposure level of about 1.5 mSv more per year than people living at sea level. And a 10-hour airline flight increases cosmic ray exposure by about 0.03 mSv. Smoking a pack of cigarettes a day exposes the smoker to an extra 53 mSv per year. (!!!!!) A single chest x-ray exposes the patient to about 0.1 mSv. A mammogram exposes a woman to 0.4 mSv. A CT scan of the abdomen (belly) and pelvis exposes a person to about 10 mSv, this goes up to 20 mSv if the test is done with and without contrast. Other imaging tests such as ultrasound or MRI don't use ionising radiation. ----------------- Personally, I haven't worried since I was bitten by a radioactive spider. BillK From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Jul 8 15:02:28 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 8 Jul 2014 11:02:28 -0400 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 7, 2014 at 1:43 PM, Adrian Tymes wrote: >> I think it would be difficult to get large numbers of people to agree to >> be exposed to radiation for a study, so we must rely on accidental >> exposures. > > > Use animal experiments. This isn't anywhere close to human-specific > mechanisms being tested, so the results transfer readily. > Mice are very short lived animals so a skeptic would say that if cancer didn't show up in a couple of years it was just because there wasn't enough time for the cancer to develop. And the longer lived your experimental animal is the more expensive the experiment and the longer it takes to get any results. The only data we have on the effects of radiation on long lived animals is with the Human animal. For example, the survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki who received 2000 millisieverts of radiation were 7.9 times as likely to get Leukemia as the general population of Japanese, If they received half that amount of radiation (1000 millisieverts) and the LNT theory was true you would expect them to be 3.95 times as likely to get that disease but instead they were only 2.1 times as likely; and if they got 200 millisieverts they were 4% LESS likely and with 100 millisieverts they were 17% LESS likely to get Leukemia. Somebody please explain to me how these NONLINEAR results are consistent with the LINEAR No Threshold theory. The survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki who received more than 100 millisieverts were more likely to develop solid cancers than the general population of Japanese, but those who were under 100 millisieverts were not. Somebody please explain to me how the existence of such a THRESHOLD is consistent with the Linear NO THRESHOLD theory. None of the data spurts the Linear No Threshold theory, and yet the UN and the NRC and the WHO and just about every other organization you can name operates under the assumption that the LNT theory is true and makes policy accordingly. John K Clark John K Clark > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Tue Jul 8 15:59:38 2014 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Tue, 8 Jul 2014 08:59:38 -0700 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 8, 2014 at 5:00 AM, BillK > wrote: > Another problem might be - what type and duration of radiation? > Ionizing radiation includes alpha particles, beta particles and > neutrons, as well as mesons that constitute cosmic rays. These have > different penetrative power to affect the human body. If radiation > hormesis exists, it might not be a whole body effect. It might only > affect certain organs or the immune system. Good point. Radiologists are reputed to have a lower rate of cancer, but it's also thought that high energy physicist die at higher rates from leukemia. (That's what killed G.K. O'Neill.) Keith From rhanson at gmu.edu Tue Jul 8 16:03:25 2014 From: rhanson at gmu.edu (Robin D Hanson) Date: Tue, 8 Jul 2014 16:03:25 +0000 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <23EB5802-6882-4A95-A0AA-0652A9ECCFCD@gmu.edu> On Jul 8, 2014, at 8:02 AM, John Clark > wrote: For example, the survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki who received 2000 millisieverts of radiation were 7.9 times as likely to get Leukemia as the general population of Japanese, If they received half that amount of radiation (1000 millisieverts) and the LNT theory was true you would expect them to be 3.95 times as likely to get that disease but instead they were only 2.1 times as likely; and if they got 200 millisieverts they were 4% LESS likely and with 100 millisieverts they were 17% LESS likely to get Leukemia. Somebody please explain to me how these NONLINEAR results are consistent with the LINEAR No Threshold theory. The survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki who received more than 100 millisieverts were more likely to develop solid cancers than the general population of Japanese, but those who were under 100 millisieverts were not. Somebody please explain to me how the existence of such a THRESHOLD is consistent with the Linear NO THRESHOLD theory. None of the data spurts the Linear No Threshold theory, and yet the UN and the NRC and the WHO and just about every other organization you can name operates under the assumption that the LNT theory is true and makes policy accordingly. Your examples are provocative, but rather than base our beliefs on such examples, can't we just have a systematic review article? Surely there must be one on this subject. Robin Hanson http://hanson.gmu.edu Res. Assoc., Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford Univ. Assoc. Professor, George Mason University Chief Scientist, Consensus Point MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Tue Jul 8 16:19:16 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Tue, 8 Jul 2014 09:19:16 -0700 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Jul 8, 2014 8:03 AM, "John Clark" wrote: > Mice are very short lived animals so a skeptic would say that if cancer didn't show up in a couple of years it was just because there wasn't enough time for the cancer to develop. A quick google on "cancer rates mice" returns sufficient evidence to debunk that claim: mice at 800 days have similar cancer rates as humans at 80 years, given similar environments. But yeah, even the limited data we have on humans seems to debunk the default assumption. (We call it LNT, but those who use it typically do not name, believing there can be no alternative so why bother naming the only possibility. Our challenge is more getting them to take seriously that there can be any other option and the implication of alternatives; proving the right one helps but is not sufficient by itself.) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Jul 8 16:28:31 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 8 Jul 2014 09:28:31 -0700 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <014f01cf9ac9$a8a73c70$f9f5b550$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Keith Henson Subject: Re: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? On Tue, Jul 8, 2014 at 5:00 AM, BillK > wrote: >>... Another problem might be - what type and duration of radiation? > Ionizing radiation includes alpha particles, beta particles and > neutrons, as well as mesons that constitute cosmic rays... >...Good point. Radiologists are reputed to have a lower rate of cancer, but it's also thought that high energy physicist die at higher rates from leukemia. (That's what killed G.K. O'Neill.)...Keith _______________________________________________ Ja. We want a simple number to express safe levels of radiation, but as BillK points out there are different kinds of radiation. If you work in a facility where there is any radiation, often they have witness badges, but these need different sensors depending on what type of radiation is present. A few years ago I did some test work at the cyclotron in Berkeley. Before they let us go up there, they made us take an all-day course in radiation risks, then sign a waiver saying we knew the risks of going up there. This was almost a show-stopper for me, because the material they gave there didn't make sense; it was self-contradictory on its face. They were trying to describe the risk in terms of activities most of us understand. Two risk-equivalents that stick in my mind is the risk of being present in the rad-lab per day is equivalent to driving your car about 300 miles or riding a motorcycle 11 miles. So I started asking questions of the lecturer, being as I know those two pieces of information are contradictory. By widely accepted standards, motorcycles are about 3 times more dangerous per mile compared to cars if we are talking hospital-level injuries and roughly ten times as dangerous per mile of fatality. This literature suggests motorcycles are nearly 30 times as dangerous as cars, so I started asking questions. The lecturer (from the Berkeley cyclotron) didn't know. I almost called off the whole thing right there. My customer insisted we go forward, so we did. (I didn't know at the time he had a boyfriend at Berkeley.) I saw other apparent contradictions. There were guys who had worked up in that lab for decades, and I saw no signs of health problems. The local squirrels looked perfectly healthy. I see nothing analogous to a road-rash injury in radiation. Is there? Can you get a mild radiation injury? What happens? Would that be like getting radiation therapy in the oncology lab? The most obvious one was simple: if you spend all day helping set up the test, then get outta Dodge when they turn on the beam for ten minutes, isn't that escaping the risk entirely? Wouldn't that be analogous to a couple fellers working on a motorcycle all day, then one of them rides it away afterwards. Only one takes any risk, ja? But I digress. I can imagine some radiation is healthy, working to pump up the immune system. Other kinds of radiation in other doses would break down the immune system, or overwhelm it. spike From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Jul 8 17:29:13 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 8 Jul 2014 13:29:13 -0400 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 8, 2014 at 11:59 AM, Keith Henson wrote: > Radiologists are reputed to have a lower rate of cancer, but it's also > thought that high energy physicist die at higher rates > from leukemia. There are lots and lots of radiologists but I wonder if there are enough high energy physicist to get a statistically meaningful result. And anyway when the beam is on there's 300 feet of rock between them and the radiation, neutrinos can still get through but I very much doubt they are harmful. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Tue Jul 8 21:02:19 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2014 23:02:19 +0200 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <53BC5C5B.3070800@libero.it> Il 08/07/2014 19:29, John Clark ha scritto: > On Tue, Jul 8, 2014 at 11:59 AM, Keith Henson > wrote: > > > Radiologists are reputed to have a lower rate of cancer, but it's > also thought that high energy physicist die at higher rates > from leukemia. > > > There are lots and lots of radiologists but I wonder if there are enough > high energy physicist to get a statistically meaningful result. And > anyway when the beam is on there's 300 feet of rock between them and the > radiation, neutrinos can still get through but I very much doubt they > are harmful. Leukemia is not induced only by radiations (it is just a popular cause). high energy physicist work in an environment where a lot of tailor made stuff is used. I would not be surprised they are exposed to a large number of chemicals. It is like anesthesiologists and surgery room crews. They are exposed to a lot of chemicals (mainly the anesthetic gases) and they must check their liver for problems. The patients, in comparison, get large doses for a very short time. The workers very small doses for years and years. A lot of military deaths in Italy were linked with soldiers participating to the Peacekeeping for in Kosovo just after the war. All talking about radiations. But the types of cancers were different in type and speed of growth from the types one would expect from radiation exposure. They developed the cancers too fast and just few years after the war. My hypothesis was they were exposed to some type of chemicals on the ground. A burning tank must not be the most healthy source of smoke and powders. Mirco From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Jul 9 15:18:46 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 11:18:46 -0400 Subject: [ExI] be nice to leftists In-Reply-To: <002e01cf972d$11156110$33402330$@harveynewstrom.com> References: <4C5EC72C-83B4-495A-A453-BF0B97EE3BE3@alumni.virginia.edu> <002e01cf972d$11156110$33402330$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Jul 3, 2014 at 10:10 PM, Harvey Newstrom wrote: > On Jun 14, 2014, at 2:30 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote, > > ### Over 90% of the wielders of power in our society (Federal > > employees, elite university faculty and administrators, mainstream > > journalists, public intellectuals) are culturally leftist. > > I think you are just over-counting "leftist" types of power with these > examples. You do not mention corporate fat cats, Wallstreet brokers, > bankers, police, military, religious leaders, organized crime, and other > power-hungry groups that are culturally "rightist". There are power-hungry > people all across the political spectrum and in all walks of life. ### The groups I mentioned wield sovereign power or indirectly shape it. Others are feeding on the leftovers. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Jul 9 15:29:42 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 11:29:42 -0400 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: References: <010301cf93bd$03a17a50$0ae46ef0$@att.net> <53B169BE.207@libero.it> <010101cf9480$34414050$9cc3c0f0$@att.net> <013901cf9490$ce8c0cc0$6ba42640$@att.net> <003b01cf94ab$4757d250$d60776f0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 1, 2014 at 1:54 PM, Dave Sill wrote: Does it? J. Edgar had enough dirt on everyone that he didn't really have to > answer to anyone. You think the spooks don't have even more dirt on Obama? > > ### Why would it matter? Is paying their bills. He is the quintessential state establishment candidate. He is their guy. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Wed Jul 9 15:32:04 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 11:32:04 -0400 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: <23EB5802-6882-4A95-A0AA-0652A9ECCFCD@gmu.edu> References: <23EB5802-6882-4A95-A0AA-0652A9ECCFCD@gmu.edu> Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 8, 2014 at 12:03 PM, Robin D Hanson wrote: > Your examples are provocative, but rather than base our beliefs on such > examples, can't we just have a systematic review article? Surely there must > be one on this subject. > The data I used is in the superb Robert Hargraves book "Thorium: Energy Cheaper Than Coal" and Wade Allison's book "Radiation And Reason". John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Jul 9 15:32:28 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 11:32:28 -0400 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: References: <010301cf93bd$03a17a50$0ae46ef0$@att.net> <53B169BE.207@libero.it> <010101cf9480$34414050$9cc3c0f0$@att.net> <013901cf9490$ce8c0cc0$6ba42640$@att.net> <003b01cf94ab$4757d250$d60776f0$@att.net> <53B2AAEE.9060900@libero.it> Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 1, 2014 at 9:19 AM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: I don't think you can convince me that the GOP has serious issues with every single person Obama has proposed for a job. It's spite. Obstructionism. Pettiness. ### Every single of these candidates is likely to be an enemy, chosen on the basis of her ideological commitment, or else a crony. Why give more power to enemies? Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Jul 9 15:34:24 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 11:34:24 -0400 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: <20140701111345.d32794d095cdfcc0018508d9c136b552.d60eec3462.mailapi@email09.secureserver.net> References: <00c601cf94b5$a4b1f070$ee15d150$@att.net> <20140701111345.d32794d095cdfcc0018508d9c136b552.d60eec3462.mailapi@email09.secureserver.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 1, 2014 at 2:13 PM, Harvey Newstrom wrote: > On 6/30/14 6:50 pm, Spike wrote: > > > http://bigstory.ap.org/article/irs-apologizes-targeting-conservative-groups > > > http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/04/23/1294061/-IRS-Targeted-Progressive-Groups-MORE-than-Tea-Party > > > ### C'mon, Daily Kos as a source of information? Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Wed Jul 9 16:16:49 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 09:16:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: References: <00c601cf94b5$a4b1f070$ee15d150$@att.net> <20140701111345.d32794d095cdfcc0018508d9c136b552.d60eec3462.mailapi@email09.secureserver.net> Message-ID: <025901cf9b91$30eb8ba0$92c2a2e0$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Rafal Smigrodzki Sent: Wednesday, July 09, 2014 8:34 AM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? On Tue, Jul 1, 2014 at 2:13 PM, Harvey Newstrom wrote: On 6/30/14 6:50 pm, Spike wrote: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/irs-apologizes-targeting-conservative-groups http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/04/23/1294061/-IRS-Targeted-Progressive-Groups-MORE-than-Tea-Party ### C'mon, Daily Kos as a source of information? Rafal Ja. The Great American left should be outraged. Apparently the IRS targeted some of these left-wing groups even more than the Tea party. For some mysterious reason, these left-leaning groups don?t seem to be too bothered about it. Perhaps it is because the president already called the whole thing a phony scandal. Subsequently the IRS apologized for a real scandal he had already declared phony. He had already said there was not a smidgen of corruption when the IRS admitted corruption. After all this, we still don?t know why the former IRS director took the fifth. We still have them holding to the absurd story that the evidence was lost in a series of hard disk crashes, yet they refuse help from an independent organization to recover the email. Sounds like at least a smidgen of corruption to me. So interesting is this: the IRS can do any corrupt thing they want, including influencing elections. Then when caught, all they need to do is offer a lame apology and it all goes away? The former IRS director was found in contempt of congress. But what are the negative consequences? She is retired. What are the incentives to not repeat the behavior? None that I can tell. Now, if you or I get an audit, the IRS can arbitrarily declare us guilty, with or without solid evidence. We can?t just make it all go away by taking the fifth or apologizing. See the problem? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Jul 9 17:34:29 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 12:34:29 -0500 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: <025901cf9b91$30eb8ba0$92c2a2e0$@att.net> References: <00c601cf94b5$a4b1f070$ee15d150$@att.net> <20140701111345.d32794d095cdfcc0018508d9c136b552.d60eec3462.mailapi@email09.secureserver.net> <025901cf9b91$30eb8ba0$92c2a2e0$@att.net> Message-ID: > > > Ja. The Great American left should be outraged. Apparently the IRS > targeted some of these left-wing groups even more than the Tea party. For > some mysterious reason, these left-leaning groups don?t seem to be too > bothered about it. Perhaps it is because the president already called the > whole thing a phony scandal. Subsequently the IRS apologized for a real > scandal he had already declared phony. He had already said there was not a > smidgen of corruption when the IRS admitted corruption. After all this, we > still don?t know why the former IRS director took the fifth. We still have > them holding to the absurd story that the evidence was lost in a series of > hard disk crashes, yet they refuse help from an independent organization to > recover the email. Sounds like at least a smidgen of corruption to me. > > > > So interesting is this: the IRS can do any corrupt thing they want, > including influencing elections. Then when caught, all they need to do is > offer a lame apology and it all goes away? The former IRS director was > found in contempt of congress. But what are the negative consequences? > She is retired. What are the incentives to not repeat the behavior? None > that I can tell. Now, if you or I get an audit, the IRS can arbitrarily > declare us guilty, with or without solid evidence. We can?t just make it > all go away by taking the fifth or apologizing. > > > > See the problem? > > > > spike > ?Here is what I want to know: just where in the world is a place where > this sort of thing does not happen? Where is there a government that is > not corrupt, where everyone does not practice any sort of politics or > stealing or padding expenses like the military industrial complex Ike > warned us against? We (USA) surely are among the best of a bad lot. Why > are we humans a bad lot you ask? Cobbled together design. We need to > start designing ourselves - only answer to get rid of bad genes. You can't > imprison or shoot them all, no matter how much you may anticipate ecstasy > from doing so.? > > ?bill w? > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Wed Jul 9 17:50:36 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 13:50:36 -0400 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? Message-ID: Liquid Hydrogen would be a pretty good fuel for airplanes, so let?s see how many solar cells would be needed to make the fuel to keep one in the air. A 747 jet uses on average 140 megawatts of power, incidentally even the old fashioned nuclear reactor on a Nimitz class aircraft carrier can generate 190 megawatts, a LFTR could be much smaller because it's much more energy dense. The electrolysis process to make hydrogen from water is only about 60% efficient so that brings the power requirement up to 233 megawatts, but then you need another 30% to liquefy the hydrogen (it?s not easy to do) so the grand total is you need a solar cell installation that on average produces 333 megawatts each and every hour to keep a hydrogen powered 747 in the air. Averaged over 24 hours a square meter of solar cells might produce 30 watts each hour, so you?d need 11,100,000 square meters of solar cells, that?s a square 2787 meters on a side. We conclude that to keep just one jet in the air we need a fuel factory that covers 3 square miles of the Earth?s surface. And that is why I don?t think solar is the answer to all our energy needs. There are only 2 other sources that have the potential to power our civilization for the next billion years: 1) Fusion reactors, but nobody is close to figuring out how to build even a working model much less a practical machine. 2) Thorium fission reactors, and we?ve known how to build them for half a century. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Wed Jul 9 18:21:49 2014 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 14:21:49 -0400 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Wed, Jul 9, 2014 at 1:50 PM, John Clark wrote: > Liquid Hydrogen would be a pretty good fuel for airplanes, so let?s see how Gaseous hydrogen was a pretty good fill for airships except for the whole exploding part. If we can make sufficiently strong areogels with an air-tight skin around them, might we be able to create vacuum balloon airships? Also, if the skin is also a solar collector, is there enough surface area on a blimp to power the fans that drive forward motion (let's not worry about high winds/etc for the sake of this experiment) For all the same reasons Spike keeps proposing slow accelerating ape-haulers, I'm suggesting air travel goes in a similar direction. I know, let's not bet on nano-magical textiles - but I'm not betting anything, just asking "what if?" From painlord2k at libero.it Wed Jul 9 18:41:27 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2014 20:41:27 +0200 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <53BD8CD7.8030706@libero.it> Il 09/07/2014 20:21, Mike Dougherty ha scritto: > On Wed, Jul 9, 2014 at 1:50 PM, John Clark wrote: >> Liquid Hydrogen would be a pretty good fuel for airplanes, so let?s see how > > Gaseous hydrogen was a pretty good fill for airships except for the > whole exploding part. Why use hydrogen (with all its problems) instead of using liquid hydrocarbons? We have no problems storing them, moving them and we have a long experience in engines fueled by hydrocarbons. > If we can make sufficiently strong areogels with an air-tight skin > around them, might we be able to create vacuum balloon airships? The problem with airship is they are slow and cumbersome. I would see them used to haul stuff around as drones but people do not like to wait or waste more time than the bare minimum. There must be a large difference in costs to have airships support and supplant airplanes. Mirco From markalanwalker at gmail.com Wed Jul 9 19:09:24 2014 From: markalanwalker at gmail.com (Mark Walker) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 13:09:24 -0600 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: I'm not sure pessimism about solar's potential is the right conclusion from John's back-of-the-envelop calculations. New Mexico is 121,593 square miles, which means that it should be sufficient to keep 40k planes in the air. Estimates of the number of planes in the air at anyone time world wide are in the neighborhood of 10 to 20K. So, covering half of New Mexico should about write the check. And of course, most of these planes are much smaller than a 747. Mark ? Dr. Mark Walker Richard L. Hedden Chair of Advanced Philosophical Studies Department of Philosophy New Mexico State University P.O. Box 30001, MSC 3B Las Cruces, NM 88003-8001 USA http://www.nmsu.edu/~philos/mark-walkers-home-page.html On Wed, Jul 9, 2014 at 11:50 AM, John Clark wrote: > Liquid Hydrogen would be a pretty good fuel for airplanes, so let?s see > how many solar cells would be needed to make the fuel to keep one in the > air. A 747 jet uses on average 140 megawatts of power, incidentally even > the old fashioned nuclear reactor on a Nimitz class aircraft carrier can > generate 190 megawatts, a LFTR could be much smaller because it's much more > energy dense. The electrolysis process to make hydrogen from water is only > about 60% efficient so that brings the power requirement up to 233 > megawatts, but then you need another 30% to liquefy the hydrogen (it?s not > easy to do) so the grand total is you need a solar cell installation that > on average produces 333 megawatts each and every hour to keep a hydrogen > powered 747 in the air. > > Averaged over 24 hours a square meter of solar cells might produce 30 > watts each hour, so you?d need 11,100,000 square meters of solar cells, > that?s a square 2787 meters on a side. We conclude that to keep just one > jet in the air we need a fuel factory that covers 3 square miles of the > Earth?s surface. And that is why I don?t think solar is the answer to all > our energy needs. > > There are only 2 other sources that have the potential to power our > civilization for the next billion years: > > 1) Fusion reactors, but nobody is close to figuring out how to build even > a working model much less a practical machine. > 2) Thorium fission reactors, and we?ve known how to build them for half a > century. > > John K Clark > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Wed Jul 9 19:56:30 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 20:56:30 +0100 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Wed, Jul 9, 2014 at 8:09 PM, Mark Walker wrote: > > I'm not sure pessimism about solar's potential is the right conclusion from > John's back-of-the-envelop calculations. New Mexico is 121,593 square miles, > which means that it should be sufficient to keep 40k planes in the air. > Estimates of the number of planes in the air at anyone time world wide are > in the neighborhood of 10 to 20K. So, covering half of New Mexico should > about write the check. > And of course, most of these planes are much smaller than a 747. > > Google electric aircraft. Airbus has a flying two-seat demonstrator already. Using batteries and electric ducted fans at present. Refuelling means swapping batteries. But they have plans for much bigger craft. As batteries improve, and with improved solar cells on the wings, ten years will bring big changes. BillK From painlord2k at libero.it Wed Jul 9 19:46:29 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Wed, 09 Jul 2014 21:46:29 +0200 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <53BD9C15.8000906@libero.it> Il 09/07/2014 21:09, Mark Walker ha scritto: > I'm not sure pessimism about solar's potential is the right conclusion > from John's back-of-the-envelop calculations. New Mexico > is 121,593 square miles, which means that it should be sufficient to > keep 40k planes in the air. Estimates of the number of planes in the air > at anyone time world wide are in the neighborhood of 10 to 20K. So, > covering half of New Mexico should about write the check. And of course, > most of these planes are much smaller than a 747. How much would it cost to keep all this surface clean from dust and bird poop? I continue to prefer nuclear (fission, fusion, LENR, uranium, plutonium, thorium, whatever...) over solar. Just I like to have the power and vast desolate places where to walk alone sometimes. Mirco From msd001 at gmail.com Thu Jul 10 00:31:09 2014 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 20:31:09 -0400 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? In-Reply-To: <53BD8CD7.8030706@libero.it> References: <53BD8CD7.8030706@libero.it> Message-ID: On Jul 9, 2014 2:42 PM, "Mirco Romanato" wrote: > > Il 09/07/2014 20:21, Mike Dougherty ha scritto: > > The problem with airship is they are slow and cumbersome. > I would see them used to haul stuff around as drones but people do not like to wait or waste more time than the bare minimum. > There must be a large difference in costs to have airships support and supplant airplanes. My question is about engineering a balloon capable of displacing atmosphere without using a volume of gas (and its weight) to do it. Hydrogen is light enough, but too dangerous. Helium works (I guess) but going to something lighter than hydrogen (vacuum/nothing) solves both weight and explosion problems. So maybe we're not making passenger blimps, but Amazon/Google/et al. are planning drone networking.. maybe balloons could be viable? Tethered in a mesh around the earth, could they provide a hanging rail system? idk, just thinking out loud. :) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Thu Jul 10 04:00:42 2014 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 21:00:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? Message-ID: On Wed, Jul 9, 2014 at 5:00 AM, John Clark wrote: > There are lots and lots of radiologists but I wonder if there are enough > high energy physicist to get a statistically meaningful result. And anyway > when the beam is on there's 300 feet of rock between them and the > radiation, neutrinos can still get through but I very much doubt they are > harmful. Ah . . . have you ever seen someone lining up the beam from an accelerator? Back when I was in school, which makes it a long time ago, I saw one of the high energy professor at the U of Arizona looking down the beam line to see if it was lined up correctly. I was offered a chance and looked thinking he was just lining it up visually. Nope, the beam was on and I got an eyeball full of Cherenkov radiation. Pretty, most intense blue you can imagine, but I don't think it was a good idea. Re the reduced cancer rates at 100 mS, not surprised. Immune system clearance of cancer cells would account for low doses having that effect. Most of us carry antibodies to leukemia cells, exceptions being people who have it. But it would be very hard to get research money to study the effect. It's politically incorrect. Keith From robot at ultimax.com Thu Jul 10 15:23:20 2014 From: robot at ultimax.com (Robert G Kennedy III, PE) Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2014 11:23:20 -0400 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?How_will_air_travel_work_in_a_green_solar_economy?= =?utf-8?q?=3F?= In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <45b0069a011cb2a5af21b28957605e46@ultimax.com> On 2014-07-10 08:00, John Clark wrote: > There are only 2 other sources that have the potential to power our > civilization for the next billion years: > > 1) Fusion reactors, but nobody is close to figuring out how to build > even a > working model much less a practical machine. > 2) Thorium fission reactors, and we?ve known how to build them for > half a > century. No, there are 3: space-based photovoltaic satellites. either in GEO as the late great Peter Glaser invented/envisioned, or at the Sun-Earth L1 point as we and a few others have proposed. See for example our "Dyson Dots and Geoengineering: The Killer App to Bootstrap Us Ad Astra" article in JBIS vol.66, no.10-11, Oct-Nov 2013. Our geoengineering with SBSP work has also appeared in Acta Astronautica in 2012 (another refereed journal), as well as the Whole Earth Review way back in the summer of 2001. Also Stanford webcast us back then right after 9/11. Also we were published by the Russian Academy of Sciences / Rosgidromet (their national weather service) in 2011. Yes, the Russkiis have all of a sudden got serious about climate change. And I would substitute fast breeders for the fusion reactors, since we do already know how to build and operate the former, but not the latter. We'd just have to be honest and call it as the "plutonium economy", since that's what it is. But of all of these, solar is the one with the most "headroom" for the human race, even just down here on /terra firma/. The United States alone encompasses 2 billion acres. The "built environment" (buildings, parking lots, roads, but not farms) covers about 5% of that, ~100 million acres. One acre in the temperate zone can host 1/6th to 1/4th of a MW(e) of solar electric generating capacity, depending on technology and latitude and cloud cover. Now, nameplate capacity of the US grid is 1 terawatt; steady state generation is closer to just half of that, 0.5 TW or 500 GW(e). The global grid is less than 4 TW(e); steady-state about 2 TW(e). These rough figures suggest that there's sufficient area just on the parking lots and rooftops (that happen to be pointing the right way) of America to host solar equivalent to the world's grid several times over. That's without covering up one single square meter of grass or productive farmland, which the Germans mistakenly did. In space, a single Dyson Dot the size of Texas could host enough PV on its sunny side to provide the entire planetary primary energy that we forecast by the year 2050. Meanwhile the Dot is also providing a bit of shade, 1/4th of one percent, enough to cool down the Earth just enough to offset AGW, about 2 deg. C worth. Btw, LNG would be an even better aviation fuel, especially for professional (non-amateur) flyers, with far less difficult handling and density problems than LH2. Expect to see LNG-fueled a/c in the next decade. Robert -- Robert G Kennedy III, PE www.ultimax.com 1994 AAAS/ASME Congressional Fellow U.S. House Subcommittee on Space > Liquid Hydrogen would be a pretty good fuel for airplanes, so let?s > see how > many solar cells would be needed to make the fuel to keep one in the > air. A > 747 jet uses on average 140 megawatts of power, incidentally even the > old > fashioned nuclear reactor on a Nimitz class aircraft carrier can > generate > 190 megawatts, a LFTR could be much smaller because it's much more > energy > dense. The electrolysis process to make hydrogen from water is only > about > 60% efficient so that brings the power requirement up to 233 > megawatts, but > then you need another 30% to liquefy the hydrogen (it?s not easy to > do) so > the grand total is you need a solar cell installation that on > average > produces 333 megawatts each and every hour to keep a hydrogen powered > 747 > in the air. > > Averaged over 24 hours a square meter of solar cells might produce 30 > watts > each hour, so you?d need 11,100,000 square meters of solar cells, > that?s a > square 2787 meters on a side. We conclude that to keep just one jet > in the > air we need a fuel factory that covers 3 square miles of the Earth?s > surface. And that is why I don?t think solar is the answer to all our > energy needs. > > There are only 2 other sources that have the potential to power our > civilization for the next billion years: > > 1) Fusion reactors, but nobody is close to figuring out how to build > even a > working model much less a practical machine. > 2) Thorium fission reactors, and we?ve known how to build them for > half a > century. > > John K Clark From frankmac at ripco.com Thu Jul 10 16:06:59 2014 From: frankmac at ripco.com (frank mcelligott) Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2014 09:06:59 -0700 Subject: [ExI] 5 billion dollars Message-ID: <712ED72C292045A7B6F5F47BE0584107@grandviewpatPC> Seems that the IBM, the big blue guy, and jeopardy champ has decided to spend it's winning on nano tech. http://www.itworld.com/hardware/426483/ibm-rethinking-decades-old-computer-design-3-billion-investment?source=ITWNLE_nlt_today_2014-07-10 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Thu Jul 10 21:43:54 2014 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2014 14:43:54 -0700 Subject: [ExI] How learning to pass the marshmallow test explains global economic evolution Message-ID: Those of you who have been here a *long* time, know that I have been much influenced by Evolutionary Psychology, which I first ran into in Moral Animal, by Robert Wright. Years before that, I thought highly of Richard Dawkins. Selfish Gene is must reading for those who would understand the world. Since 2007 or so I have been impressed by the work of Gregory Clark. Unlike the EP people who say most of our psychological traits were selected back in the stone age, Clark makes a case that some of them were strongly selected in far more recent times. Kind of like the tame foxes. I happen to be reading Clark's most recent book, _The Son Also Rises_ when this showed up in my email. Keith BY Gregory Clark July 9, 2014 at 12:10 PM EDT What separated the English from the rest of the world in the lead-up to the Industrial Revolution was their culture and genetics, says economic historian Gregory Clark. The most materially-driven and most patient survived. Photo by Flickr user mrjorgen. Editor?s Note: If you had to choose between living in a hunter-gatherer society and pre-industrial England, or even a very orderly and hygenic Japan, which would you prefer? In nearly every dimension, hunter-gatherer life was better: you?d live just as long (about 35 years), with more dietary variety and in a more egalitarian society. One of the reasons living conditions were so high for hunter-gatherer societies, economic historian Greg Clark told Paul Solman, is that there was a high degree of violence. ?It?s better to die at the end of a spear than to die from miserable material living conditions,? he said in part one of his never-before published interview with Paul, published Monday on Making Sen$e. But it?s not just the ease of your own death that makes that a better life. More violence meant that more people were eliminated, and those who were left could share in the bounty, increasing their own living standards. To Clark, this explains why Thomas Malthus? population theory ? that population is limited by the limited resources for keeping humans alive ? explains so much about economic history up until around 1800. Greg Clark: A lot about the Malthusian world is the exact opposite of what we expect now. What?s vice now is virtue then. You know, bad hygiene actually makes for good living conditions. Paul Solman: Because so many people die. Greg Clark: Yes. Areas that have bad climate in terms of disease, like sub-Saharan Africa, we believe, were actually wealthy areas in the pre-industrial period because disease helped kill so many people. So then how, Paul wanted to know, did Clark think the world, led by the miserable English ? of all people ? manage to break out of the Malthusian trap? Previous explanations have been: The advent of modern institutions like the rule of law, the sanctity of contracts and the ubiquity of markets; The advent of modern technology, initially spurred by England?s vast coal deposits, which required vast energy to tap and thus led to the invention of the steam engine, mainly to dredge the water you struck when you dug deep enough. (One might call this ?the-luck-of-the-English? hypothesis); The advent of modern exploitation due to military technology ? of colonies in general, and of African slaves in particular; The circumstance of England?s unique geography, both in terms of latitude (temperate weather) and access to, and protection by, water. As Shakespeare put it around 1600: ?this precious gem set in the silver sea that serves it in the office of a wall or else a moat defensive to a house.? But Greg Clark?s answer is: none of the above. He argues that culture and genetics were what really separated the English from the rest of the world. The key, he said in his controversial 2007 book, ?A Farewell to Alms,? and in the interview Paul did with him when it came out, was that the English developed the ?habits? of wealth creation before anyone else. We return to that interview for elaboration. ? Paul Solman and Simone Pathe, Making Sen$e ________________________________ Greg Clark: The reason the English were more innovative, more commercially active, more alive to [economic] possibilities was a survival of those who were driven by material success, those who couldn?t be happy unless they were making more money. In some sense, the envious have inherited the earth, and that?s why we?ve got modern growth. Paul Solman: So survival of the richest means survival of the most competitive, or most envious, or most bourgeois? Greg Clark: Yes. Paul Solman: Really? Gregory Clark: In the context of pre-industrial England, those are the people who made it through. *** Paul Solman: So we get to 1800 and now suddenly things become dramatically different. If you?ve got a line for growth per person that?s basically horizontal along a timeline of all human history, suddenly after 1800 it looks like it?s going straight up? Greg Clark: Yes. Sometime around 1800 this dominant feature of the world up until then, which was very slow technological advancement, changed, and we moved to a world where technological advancement was systematic, expected, occurring all the time. But I should emphasize that that change is actually much more gradual than that 1800 date would suggest. There was a break at some point between, say, 1600 and 1900 from this Malthusian world to the modern world, and that, for the advanced economies, just dramatically changed their nature. What I want to emphasize here is the bizarre and puzzling nature of the Industrial Revolution, and its important to understand that this is one of the intellectual puzzles of history that?s on a par with the biggest puzzles in physics, or in astronomy, even though people generally don?t appreciate this. And perhaps the reason is that modern economists have constructed a false history of the world in their minds. They tend to assume that since high-income modern economies have certain economic features ? Paul Solman: Free markets, rule of law? Greg Clark: ?stability, peace, open government, and that low-income modern economies tend to have violence, market interference, restrictions ? what must be the case is that the pre-industrial world suffered from all of these problems, and that then somehow people stumbled on the right institutions, and then growth occurred. Paul Solman: And by ?institutions? you mean markets, the sanctity of contracts? Greg Clark: That?s right. Property rights, markets, representative government, limitations on the power of government. And it does turn out that England, which was in the vanguard of this movement, was a politically stable society with limited democracy, and very little government interference. However, when you study the long history of the pre-industrial period, it becomes apparent that, for example, if you go back to 1300, England already had all the institutions you needed for modern economic growth. England had a government tax rate that averaged 1 percent. It had, for hundreds of years, zero inflation. It had no government debt. It had absolute security for most people of their property rights. Most markets were free. For hundreds and hundreds of years, England had everything it needed for modern growth. If you go back to ancient Greece or ancient Rome, or probably even ancient Babylon, they had institutions enough for getting growth. Paul Solman: We have the tablets from ancient Babylon because they were incised in clay, and there were all kinds of contracts. Greg Clark: They had home mortgages, they had rental contracts, they had labor contracts, they had urban societies. But, says Clark, the Babylonians obviously didn?t have modern economic growth. Nor did the Greeks, the Romans, the Chinese or anyone else, even though they had many of the institutions that economists credit with the advent of prosperity. Greg Clark: It?s the dominant paradigm in modern economics. The idea in this is that economics has an amazing power. Institutions ? I mean, it?s just the rules of the game in any society. If we don?t like the rules we have, why don?t we just change them? And then apparently, we could have endless growth. That I think, is what gives economics its power and its appeal. But that?s what I?m trying to argue against. I think the key was that there is very strong evidence that people were changing through this long Malthusian interval. Human nature seems to have been changing. It may well be culturally. It?s impossible to rule out that it?s actually genetically. What we find, if we look back at the earliest societies, is that people tended to be violent, impulsive, impatient. They didn?t like to work. When we get to societies like England on the eve of the Industrial Revolution, you can see that people are accumulating capital in ways that they never did before. There?s much less violence ? ordinary day-to-day violence ? in the society. People?s levels of education have expanded enormously. They are much more aware of numbers. The upper classes in ancient Rome mostly didn?t know what age they were. On their tombstones they would record ages that were just fantastical ? 120 in a society where life expectancy at birth was 25 to 30. No one seems to have thought: ?This is crazy.? You also get in these early societies people giving numbers for battles that just make no sense in terms of what we now know about history. Paul Solman: What?s an example of that? Greg Clark: They typically quote 80,000 for some reason as a standard number, and it just seemed to mean ?big.? There?s a case in medieval England where someone testified in Parliament to having fought in a battle in his youth, which occurred more than 100 years earlier. No one interrupted to say, ?What are you talking about?? And so we really see big changes in terms of work effort, patience, interest rates in very early societies at astonishing levels. If you go back to ancient Babylon, your house mortgage would cost you in real terms 20 to 25 percent interest rate per year. These were societies that offered fantastic profit opportunities ? profit opportunities that even venture capitalists now would die for. They were available to everyone, and no one took them. In ancient Greece, your standard return from completely safe investments was 10 percent. But on the eve of the Industrial Revolution in England, the rate is down to 4 percent. There?s just a fundamental change in people?s psychology. What that implies is that people were historically very impatient. Paul Solman: So you mean the time value of money ? the value of waiting ? has simply gone down as time has gone on? Greg Clark: Yes. There?s very clear signs that with risk-free investments, the amount you have to pay people to wait declines very dramatically. We know, in the modern world, that people vary in their degree of impatience and how much they have to be paid. I have three children, and they vary very significantly across that factor. We also know in the modern world that psychologists were able to test four-year-olds and say, ?You can have one marshmallow now or two marshmallows if you wait for a few minutes.? There?s a bunch of kids that have to have the marshmallow, and others that just have this different psychology where they can wait. It turns out that?s a very good predictor of how they?ll do later in life. It seems to be a fundamental feature of peoples? personalities: how willing they are to wait for gratification. There seems to be this possibility that on a world scale, this was actually changing as we moved from hunter-gatherer society, to 1800. From pharos at gmail.com Thu Jul 10 22:53:23 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2014 23:53:23 +0100 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: <025901cf9b91$30eb8ba0$92c2a2e0$@att.net> References: <00c601cf94b5$a4b1f070$ee15d150$@att.net> <20140701111345.d32794d095cdfcc0018508d9c136b552.d60eec3462.mailapi@email09.secureserver.net> <025901cf9b91$30eb8ba0$92c2a2e0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Wed, Jul 9, 2014 at 5:16 PM, spike wrote: > So interesting is this: the IRS can do any corrupt thing they want, > including influencing elections. Then when caught, all they need to do is > offer a lame apology and it all goes away? The former IRS director was > found in contempt of congress. But what are the negative consequences? She > is retired. What are the incentives to not repeat the behavior? None that > I can tell. Now, if you or I get an audit, the IRS can arbitrarily declare > us guilty, with or without solid evidence. We can't just make it all go > away by taking the fifth or apologizing. > New US Tax Return Form ????? BillK From spike66 at att.net Thu Jul 10 23:18:41 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2014 16:18:41 -0700 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: References: <00c601cf94b5$a4b1f070$ee15d150$@att.net> <20140701111345.d32794d095cdfcc0018508d9c136b552.d60eec3462.mailapi@email09.secureserver.net> <025901cf9b91$30eb8ba0$92c2a2e0$@att.net> Message-ID: <001201cf9c95$4aa5e540$dff1afc0$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of BillK Subject: Re: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? On Wed, Jul 9, 2014 at 5:16 PM, spike wrote: >>... So interesting is this: the IRS can do any corrupt thing they want, > including influencing elections. Then when caught, all they need to > do is offer a lame apology and it all goes away? The former IRS > director was found in contempt of congress. But what are the negative > consequences? She is retired. What are the incentives to not repeat > the behavior? None that I can tell. Now, if you or I get an audit, > the IRS can arbitrarily declare us guilty, with or without solid > evidence. We can't just make it all go away by taking the fifth or apologizing. > >...New US Tax Return Form ????? >... >...BillK _______________________________________________ BillK, an American taxpayer is allowed to lose any documents she wants. Then the IRS is free to send her any tax bill they want. There is no presumption of innocence with them. Now our EPA has gotten a bit envious of all that power, and they have declared they too have arbitrary authority: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jul/8/power-grab-epa-wants-to-garni sh-wages-of-polluters/ This implies that the rest of the government bureaucracies aren't required to bother with all those constitutional checks and balances on their power either. So this is how liberty dies: with thunderous applause. spike From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Fri Jul 11 02:50:07 2014 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Thu, 10 Jul 2014 19:50:07 -0700 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? Message-ID: On Thu, Jul 10, 2014 at 5:00 AM, John Clark wrote: snip > There are only 2 other sources that have the potential to power our > civilization for the next billion years: > > 1) Fusion reactors, but nobody is close to figuring out how to build even a > working model much less a practical machine. > 2) Thorium fission reactors, and we?ve known how to build them for half a > century. Well, it's fairly clear now much attention people pay to this list. I have rapped for years about power satellites and the economic connection between the cost to get parts to GEO and the cost of power. Re fusion reactors, there is a working one at a convenient distance. Keith From spike66 at att.net Fri Jul 11 14:03:57 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2014 07:03:57 -0700 Subject: [ExI] y2k bug Message-ID: <01a301cf9d10$f62c2700$e2847500$@att.net> All the yakkity yak we heard in 1999 about the Y2K bug and how it was going to kill us all turned out to be quite the bust. Now 14 years later, we at least get something: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/07/11/were-really-sorry-us-sends-14000-draft- notices-to-men-born-in-1800s/ spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Fri Jul 11 14:27:20 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2014 10:27:20 -0400 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Jul 10, 2014 at 10:50 PM, Keith Henson wrote: > >There are only 2 other sources that have the potential to power our >> > >civilization for the next billion years: >> > >>1) Fusion reactors, but nobody is close to figuring out how to build >> even a >> >> working model much less a practical machine. >> >> 2) Thorium fission reactors, and we?ve known how to build them for >> half a >century. >> > > > Well, it's fairly clear now much attention people pay to this list. I > have rapped for years about power satellites I said there were 2 OTHER ways, power satellites are just another form of solar energy, a form that I think is even more impractical than terrestrial solar but if somebody can prove me wrong that would be great. > Re fusion reactors, there is a working one at a convenient distance. > Yes but we don't know how to build a reactor like the sun. The only way we know of to create a large scale release of fusion energy (very large scale!) is with a H bomb. In fact a H bomb is far more efficient than the sun or anything else found in nature except for a matter antimatter annihilation and that's not large scale. OK maybe pound per pound the accretion disk around a black hole might give a H bomb a run for it's money. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Fri Jul 11 15:14:32 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2014 16:14:32 +0100 Subject: [ExI] y2k bug In-Reply-To: <01a301cf9d10$f62c2700$e2847500$@att.net> References: <01a301cf9d10$f62c2700$e2847500$@att.net> Message-ID: On Fri, Jul 11, 2014 at 3:03 PM, spike wrote: > All the yakkity yak we heard in 1999 about the Y2K bug and how it was going > to kill us all turned out to be quite the bust. Depends who you ask. It gave computer consultants a few years of frantic (well-paid) business, checking and fixing every software program in companies' libraries. > Now 14 years later, we at least get something: > > http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/07/11/were-really-sorry-us-sends-14000-draft-notices-to-men-born-in-1800s/ > That was a manual error by a clerk. Not a software bug. BillK From mail at harveynewstrom.com Fri Jul 11 14:48:04 2014 From: mail at harveynewstrom.com (Harvey Newstrom) Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2014 10:48:04 -0400 Subject: [ExI] y2k bug In-Reply-To: <01a301cf9d10$f62c2700$e2847500$@att.net> References: <01a301cf9d10$f62c2700$e2847500$@att.net> Message-ID: <000901cf9d17$1f5eaa20$5e1bfe60$@harveynewstrom.com> On Friday, July 11, 2014 10:04 AM, spike wrote, > All the yakkity yak we heard in 1999 about the Y2K bug and how it was going > to kill us all turned out to be quite the bust. Actually, the Y2K bug was not a bust. I worked at IBM at the time, and we fixed many of our products in advance to avoid the bug. Had we not worked months ahead of time, it would have been a disaster. Even so, we were forced to be on call during the holiday weekend at New Years. Many things still actually failed. But since it was a holiday, few people noticed. We worked on the holiday and over the weekend to clean up a lot of stuff we missed to get it working by Monday. Then, all the clients we worked with lied and told the media that they had no problems. Because the bug was known in advance, nobody wanted to admit that they weren't prepared or missed anything. But the entire world did practically shut down that day. There were major systems outages and communications failures. It's just that most of it was fixed in advance, and people were on-call and ready to fix it the day it happened. -- Harvey Newstrom www.HarveyNewstrom.com From painlord2k at libero.it Fri Jul 11 18:31:57 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2014 20:31:57 +0200 Subject: [ExI] blue screen = hard disk crash? In-Reply-To: <001201cf9c95$4aa5e540$dff1afc0$@att.net> References: <00c601cf94b5$a4b1f070$ee15d150$@att.net> <20140701111345.d32794d095cdfcc0018508d9c136b552.d60eec3462.mailapi@email09.secureserver.net> <025901cf9b91$30eb8ba0$92c2a2e0$@att.net> <001201cf9c95$4aa5e540$dff1afc0$@att.net> Message-ID: <53C02D9D.6050709@libero.it> Il 11/07/2014 01:18, spike ha scritto: > This implies that the rest of the government bureaucracies aren't required > to bother with all those constitutional checks and balances on their power > either. > So this is how liberty dies: with thunderous applause. And people do not believe me there will be an enormous market for futures on the lives of some people? When the bureaucracies are not required to bother with constitutional checks and balances, the population will not concern themselves with following the laws. Because there will be the peaceful law abiding people that will be fed first to the furnace of Moloch. Mirco From robot at ultimax.com Fri Jul 11 18:41:02 2014 From: robot at ultimax.com (Robert G Kennedy III, PE) Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2014 14:41:02 -0400 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?How_will_air_travel_work_in_a_green_solar_economy?= =?utf-8?q?=3F?= In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 2014-07-11 08:00, Keith Henson wrote; > On Thu, Jul 10, 2014 at 5:00 AM, John Clark > wrote: >> There are only 2 other sources that have the potential to power our >> civilization for the next billion years: >> >> 1) Fusion reactors, but nobody is close to figuring out how to build >> even a >> working model much less a practical machine. >> 2) Thorium fission reactors, and we?ve known how to build them for >> half a >> century. > > Well, it's fairly clear now much attention people pay to this list. > > I have rapped for years about power satellites and the economic > connection between the cost to get parts to GEO and the cost of > power. > > Re fusion reactors, there is a working one at a convenient distance. . ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ That's a beautiful /bon mot/, Keith. Nice. On fusion, see: http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-14-750T . "Since the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) Agreement was signed in 2006, the Department of Energy's (DOE) estimated cost for the U.S. portion of ITER has grown by almost $3 billion, and its estimated completion date has slipped by 20 years. DOE has identified several reasons for the changes, such as increases in hardware cost estimates as designs and requirements have been more fully developed over time." -- Robert G Kennedy III, PE www.ultimax.com 1994 AAAS/ASME Congressional Fellow U.S. House Subcommittee on Space From spike66 at att.net Fri Jul 11 20:48:32 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2014 13:48:32 -0700 Subject: [ExI] now this, from the legal department... Message-ID: <03af01cf9d49$7aeb5410$70c1fc30$@att.net> OK then. IRS Fines Marijuana Merchants for Refusing to Commit a Felony Jacob Sullum|Jul. 11, 2014 2:21 pm . State-licensed marijuana stores, which began serving recreational customers in Colorado at the beginning of the year and in Washington this week, are criminal enterprises under federal law. But as Al Capone could have told you, Uncle Sam still wants his cut: Selling marijuana is a felony, and so is failing to pay taxes on the money you earn by selling marijuana. The government does not make it easy to comply with federal tax laws, however. Section 280Eof the Internal Revenue Code, for example, bars marijuana merchants from deducting standard business expenses (although they are, rather counterintuitively, allowed to deduct the "cost of goods sold," including the cost of growing or obtaining marijuana). And when a business pays federal taxes withheld from employees' paychecks, along with the employer's share of payroll taxes, the Internal Revenue Service insists that it be done via the Electronic Federal Tax Payment System (EFTPS), which requires a bank account. Cannabusinesses have trouble obtaining bank accounts, what with being criminal enterprises under federal law. The IRS does not consider that a good excuse, so when marijuana merchants pay the monthly taxes in cash, they are charged a 10 percent penalty. That is how Allgreens, a Denver dispensary, ended up owing the IRS more than $20,000 in penalties. In a petition filed last month with the U.S. Tax Court, Allgreens argues that the IRS should waive the penalties, as permitted by law "for reasonable cause," because the store's inability to make electronic payments is "due to circumstances completely outside of [its] control." After all, writes Allgreens' lawyer, Rachel K. Gillette, "the taxpayer is unable to secure a bank account due to the nature of its business, which is explicitly legal under Colorado State law. With no bank account and no access to banking services, the taxpayer is simply incapable of making EFTPS payments or to utilize the EFTP System." The IRS argues that businesses like Allgreens have other options. For example, "Taxpayer may use a currency exchange/same-day loan establishment, to convert cash (often times for a fee) into a money order to deposit and then use a financial institution to complete a same-day wire transaction (often times for a fee)." Alternatively, "Taxpayer may utilize/authorize a third party such as a tax professional, accountant, payroll service firm, etc., to make the deposit on their behalf. Using the third party service, the deposit is made through the batch provider software using the third parties' bank account." The problem, as Gillette points out, is that such tricky maneuvers can be treated as money laundering, a crime punishable by up to 20 years in prison under federal law. "An alternative should not force a taxpayer to engage in a potentially unlawful activity under a federal statute," she writes, concluding that "the IRS's decision in this case is arbitrary and capricious." -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From dan_ust at yahoo.com Sat Jul 12 00:26:58 2014 From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan) Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2014 17:26:58 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Don't know if you have been following this effort Message-ID: <1405124818.145.YahooMailNeo@web161604.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> http://news.yahoo.com/vintage-nasa-spacecraft-may-gas-private-team-says-144054539.html Missed any comments here, so I hope I'm not duplicating anyone else's posts. Anyhow, even with this modest success, seems good. I expect more such efforts in the next several years. ? Regards, Dan http://www.amazon.com/Hills-Rendome-Dan-Ust-ebook/dp/B00LIIVLO2/ From atymes at gmail.com Sat Jul 12 06:04:47 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2014 23:04:47 -0700 Subject: [ExI] now this, from the legal department... In-Reply-To: <03af01cf9d49$7aeb5410$70c1fc30$@att.net> References: <03af01cf9d49$7aeb5410$70c1fc30$@att.net> Message-ID: On Fri, Jul 11, 2014 at 1:48 PM, spike wrote: > The IRS argues that businesses like Allgreens have other options. For > example, "Taxpayer may use a currency exchange/same-day loan establishment, > to convert cash (often times for a fee) into a money order to deposit and > then use a financial institution to complete a same-day wire transaction > (often times for a fee)." Alternatively, "Taxpayer may utilize/authorize a > third party such as a tax professional, accountant, payroll service firm, > etc., to make the deposit on their behalf. Using the third party service, > the deposit is made through the batch provider software using the third > parties' bank account." > > The problem, as Gillette points out, is that such tricky maneuvers can be > treated as money laundering > , a crime punishable by > up to 20 years in prison under federal law. "An alternative should not > force a taxpayer to engage in a potentially unlawful activity under a > federal statute," she writes, concluding that "the IRS's decision in this > case is arbitrary and capricious." > 1) "Damned if you do, damned if you don't" is an old catch with taxes on illegal activities. Nothing new here. 2) Money laundering requires intent. Look at the linked-to definition of money laundering: neither clause of a.1.B applies (making a.1 inapplicable) so long as it's just to comply with the law, not to disguise anything. a.2 doesn't apply if all the funds are kept in the US. If the tax preparer is *just* doing taxes, not promoting the marijuana in any way (and again, not disguising things or avoiding reporting transactions), a.3 doesn't apply either. And that's the whole section. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Sat Jul 12 18:08:42 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2014 20:08:42 +0200 Subject: [ExI] y2k bug In-Reply-To: <000901cf9d17$1f5eaa20$5e1bfe60$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: <734145395-11300@secure.ericade.net> Harvey Newstrom , 11/7/2014 5:25 PM: On Friday, July 11, 2014 10:04 AM, spike wrote, > All the yakkity yak we heard in 1999 about the Y2K bug and how it was going > to kill us all turned out to be quite the bust. Actually, the Y2K bug was not a bust. Are there any good post-mortem whitepapers that analysed the total impact, the outages, and especially the what-if outages that would have happened without the effort? Y2K seems to have been both a potential risk that was largely averted, and a risk people decided to forget about as soon as the hangovers lifted. There is probably plenty to be learned from this. Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rtomek at ceti.pl Sun Jul 13 00:14:30 2014 From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola) Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2014 02:14:30 +0200 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: <53BC5C5B.3070800@libero.it> References: <53BC5C5B.3070800@libero.it> Message-ID: <20140713001429.GB1727@tau1.ceti.pl> On Tue, Jul 08, 2014 at 11:02:19PM +0200, Mirco Romanato wrote: [...] > > A lot of military deaths in Italy were linked with soldiers > participating to the Peacekeeping for in Kosovo just after the war. > All talking about radiations. > But the types of cancers were different in type and speed of growth > from the types one would expect from radiation exposure. They > developed the cancers too fast and just few years after the war. > My hypothesis was they were exposed to some type of chemicals on the > ground. A burning tank must not be the most healthy source of smoke > and powders. I'm not an expert, just a wikipedia fanboy. So wiki in, wiki out: "Uranium decays slowly by emitting an alpha particle" "They [alpha particles - TR] are a highly ionizing form of particle radiation, and (when resulting from radioactive alpha decay) have low penetration depth. They are able to be stopped by a few centimeters of air, or by the skin." [later on, they write about more energetic and highly penetrating alpha particles - those come to existence by highly energetic processes like cyclotrons - TR] However: "Normal functioning of the kidney, brain, liver, heart, and other systems can be affected by uranium exposure, because, besides being weakly radioactive, uranium is a toxic metal.[19][87][88] Uranium is also a reproductive toxicant.[89][90] Radiological effects are generally local because alpha radiation, the primary form of 238U decay, has a very short range, and will not penetrate skin. Uranyl (UO2+ 2) ions, such as from uranium trioxide or uranyl nitrate and other hexavalent uranium compounds, have been shown to cause birth defects and immune system damage in laboratory animals.[91] While the CDC has published one study that no human cancer has been seen as a result of exposure to natural or depleted uranium,[92] exposure to uranium and its decay products, especially radon, are widely known and significant health threats." Now, given they shoot depleted U munitions wide and bride, I would expect those health problems to come from inhaled U-dust and other-compounds-dust. Mob is likely to scream "radiation" but it seems to be just bad old chemical toxicity. Not cool, however. Much more uncool than bad old Lead/Pb. And I guess those and other substances are going to accumulate over decades, probably screwing us for good in the effect. Just think about it, if fetus develops in watery environment and this environment is what mother eats/drinks/inhales, than it is possible to cross a threshold and get plenty of congenital disorders, have a look at frogs for clues. (Applause! Boooo-s!) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_particle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frog_mutations_and_genetic_defects http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reproductive_toxicity Of course I realize that effects on humans would probably be different than they are for frogs, I just wonder which way different. Since frogs are much more dependent on good water than humans, similar effects might show up for us much later. Which may also mean there won't be enough time for correcting. -- Regards, Tomasz Rola -- ** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature. ** ** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home ** ** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened... ** ** ** ** Tomasz Rola mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com ** From mail at harveynewstrom.com Mon Jul 14 03:02:52 2014 From: mail at harveynewstrom.com (Harvey Newstrom) Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2014 23:02:52 -0400 Subject: [ExI] y2k bug In-Reply-To: <734145395-11300@secure.ericade.net> References: <000901cf9d17$1f5eaa20$5e1bfe60$@harveynewstrom.com> <734145395-11300@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <000201cf9f10$1aacf770$5006e650$@harveynewstrom.com> On Saturday, July 12, 2014 2:09 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote, > Are there any good post-mortem whitepapers that analyzed the total > impact, the outages, and especially the what-if outages that would have > happened without the effort? Y2K seems to have been both a potential risk > that was largely averted, and a risk people decided to forget about as soon as > the hangovers lifted. There is probably plenty to be learned from this. The United States Air Force Experience with Y2K: http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11999&page=1 "clear that enough problems were experienced in the course of the Y2K rollover to demonstrate the reality of the problem and the importance of remediation efforts (GAO 2000). Serious known disruptions were avoided in the banking and insurance sectors, two NATO nation spy satellites went down for two days, and numerous other documented failures were either avoided or responded to in real time during rollover." Gartner research: http://ecommerce.hostip.info/pages/1114/Y2K-Bug-IN-HINDSIGHT.html "Gartner Group, for instance, held that the catastrophe-free rollover was a product of the extensive and successful preparation companies undertook; Gartner Group analyst Dale Vecchio remarked, "people didn't spend $300 billion on a problem that didn't exist." Wikipedia lists some documented problems: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2000_problem#Documented_errors - Incorrect medical test results sent to pregnant women, causing two mistaken abortions. - Four Down's syndrome babies were born who were mis-screened. - Radiation monitoring equipment failed at Ishikawa, Japan. - Onagawa, Japan nuclear power plant sounded false alarms. - Japan's largest cellular carrier had phones deleting new messages rather than saving them. - Australian bus-ticket machines stopped working in two states. - One location of slot machines in the U.S. stopped working. - U.S. Naval Observatory official government time clock reported invalid year of 19,100 disrupting all government clocks referencing this source for official government time. This website documents many Y2K problems that actually occurred before the date was reached and were fixed by the time Y2K arrived: http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000RSP One common misconception is that programs would merely miscalculate dates after 2000 as being dates in the 1900s. But in reality, many of the flaws produced invalid dates, such as January 0, or the year 100 or 19,100. In such cases, the programs didn't merely produce the wrong date, but instead, they aborted or had math errors and just plain would not run. Such common programs included Microsoft Excel spreadsheets, the C programming language date libraries, Perl scripts and Java programming language, both used extensively on the web. Most credit cards had to be reissued before Y2K, and most ATMs and software accepting cards had to be upgraded. Many people think there was not a problem because they did not have to do anything to fix the problem. Many do not realize that their PCs and applications were often triggered to update themselves with patches to solve this problem. All Windows (3.1 and up), Macintosh, most Linux's, most Cisco network devices were all patched long before Y2K, and would have failed if they were not. So imagine if these were not fixed and most spreadsheets, credit cards, ATMs, gas-pumps, web pages, home computers, and networking equipment all quit working on the same day. It could have been bad if they were not fixed in advance. -- Harvey Newstrom www.HarveyNewstrom.com From spike66 at att.net Mon Jul 14 04:30:55 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2014 21:30:55 -0700 Subject: [ExI] y2k bug In-Reply-To: <000201cf9f10$1aacf770$5006e650$@harveynewstrom.com> References: <000901cf9d17$1f5eaa20$5e1bfe60$@harveynewstrom.com> <734145395-11300@secure.ericade.net> <000201cf9f10$1aacf770$5006e650$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: <043001cf9f1c$67f0d1d0$37d27570$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Harvey Newstrom ... >...Many people think there was not a problem because they did not have to do anything to fix the problem. Many do not realize that their PCs and applications were often triggered to update themselves with patches to solve this problem. All Windows (3.1 and up), Macintosh, most Linux's, most Cisco network devices were all patched long before Y2K, and would have failed if they were not...So imagine if these were not fixed and most spreadsheets, credit cards, ATMs, gas-pumps, web pages, home computers, and networking equipment all quit working on the same day. It could have been bad if they were not fixed in advance. -- Harvey Newstrom www.HarveyNewstrom.com _______________________________________________ Ja, this all went off in a direction I didn't intend. There were plenty of people working on Y2K bugs. We had guys going around doing Y2K audits and such. What I meant was there were plenty of people predicting disaster in spite of the efforts. We had people stockpiling food, predicting societal breakdown, etc. I heard others on this forum saying to the contrary, they had worked the problems adequately, there would most likely be no serious disruptions etc. Those voices turned out to be right. Plenty of wild-eyed alarmists were stuck eating MREs for months. That must have been most distasteful. The way it all came off was a phrase seldom heard: epic success. Epic success doesn't get its own brand of posters. There is an object lesson in the Y2K experience. Our wealth is now all in the form of bits stored by some mysterious means on computers. We don't know how it all works; I don't think anyone grasps all of it. If the system breaks down, many lives will be lost in the chaos that will surely follow. We have built a crazy complicated world which can break down. If just email stopped working, that alone would have a huge impact. We can see why it causes so much interest when an IRS official claims that her email was lost permanently by a computer disk crash. What stops the IRS from accidentally losing the records you need to show what you owe on your taxes? What if you get an audit and they conveniently lose your tax history in a disk crash? If that stuff is secure, why not just store the IRS internal email on the same disk as the tax records? Then just back it up the same way they back up the other records. Simple. spike From anders at aleph.se Mon Jul 14 11:21:44 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 13:21:44 +0200 Subject: [ExI] y2k bug In-Reply-To: <000201cf9f10$1aacf770$5006e650$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: <882095578-24720@secure.ericade.net> Thanks Harvey!? Harvey Newstrom??, 14/7/2014 5:08 AM: So imagine if these were not fixed and most spreadsheets, credit cards, ATMs, gas-pumps, web pages, home computers, and networking equipment all quit working on the same day. ?It could have been bad if they were not fixed in advance.? This is what intrigues me. How well can society handle time-correlated, widely distributed but disparate errors? We know that resilience to correlated errors is lower, and supply chains and other extended social infrastructures are vulnerable if there are enough breakages along them. But we also do not know how errors that could look like almost anything would affect the system. The closest scenario is geomagnetic storms (c.f.?http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/lloyds/reports/emerging%20risk%20reports/solar%20storm%20risk%20to%20the%20north%20american%20electric%20grid.pdf and the recent?http://arxiv.org/abs/1406.7024 ) or perhaps EMP: one should expect temporally correlated, widely dispersed outages. In the case of EMP there might also be faults in potentially everything with an embedded processor: it is not clear how for example cars or complex systems like airports fare if there appears intermittent faults in a certain fraction of processors.? Spike's point is well taken: a lot of people made a big deal out of it, but went for the big drama model of what could happen. Even if one thinks that is likely, one should assign a higher probability of muddling through a society with hightech friction amped up.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Mon Jul 14 14:22:16 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 15:22:16 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Bringing the dead back to life Message-ID: "When you are at 10C, with no brain activity, no heartbeat, no blood - everyone would agree that you're dead," says Peter Rhee at the University of Arizona, Tucson. "But we can still bring you back." The procedure, so far tested on animals, is about as radical as any medical procedure comes: it involves draining the body of its blood and cooling it more than 20C below normal body temperature.Once the injury is fixed, blood is pumped once again through the veins, and the body is slowly warmed back up. "As the blood is pumped in, the body turns pink right away," says Rhee. At a certain temperature, the heart flickers into life of its own accord. "It's quite curious, at 30C the heart will beat once, as if out of nowhere, then again - then as it gets even warmer it picks up all by itself." "It's the most amazing thing to witness - when the heartbeat comes back," says Rhee. ------------------ BillK From pharos at gmail.com Mon Jul 14 14:46:25 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 15:46:25 +0100 Subject: [ExI] y2k bug In-Reply-To: <882095578-24720@secure.ericade.net> References: <000201cf9f10$1aacf770$5006e650$@harveynewstrom.com> <882095578-24720@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 14, 2014 at 12:21 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > Spike's point is well taken: a lot of people made a big deal out of it, but > went for the big drama model of what could happen. Even if one thinks that > is likely, one should assign a higher probability of muddling through a > society with hightech friction amped up. > > Muddling through is a fine traditional system. e.g. UK politics, world finance, etc. But some of our modern tech is not very tolerant of suck-it-and-see. There are over 400 nuclear power plants (soon to be over 500) in the world. Maintaining them requires skilled technicians. Even shutting them down safely requires decades of skilled supervision. If world wide problems occur, then nuclear technicians may be in short supply. And computer technicians are needed as well, as computers are pretty essential to control nuclear power. Trying to 'muddle through' could be very messy. BillK From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Jul 14 14:54:51 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 10:54:51 -0400 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? In-Reply-To: <45b0069a011cb2a5af21b28957605e46@ultimax.com> References: <45b0069a011cb2a5af21b28957605e46@ultimax.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Jul 10, 2014 at 11:23 AM, Robert G Kennedy III, PE < robot at ultimax.com> wrote: > There are only 2 other sources that have the potential to power our >> civilization for the next billion years: >> >> 1) Fusion reactors, but nobody is close to figuring out how to build even >> a >> working model much less a practical machine. >> 2) Thorium fission reactors, and we?ve known how to build them for half a >> century. >> > > > No, there are 3: > space-based photovoltaic satellites. > That's just another form of solar energy, and a form that is ln my opinion least likely to do us any good in the immediate future. > I would substitute fast breeders for the fusion reactors, since we do > already know how to build and operate the former, but not the latter. A LFTR is a breeder reactor, it's just not a fast breeder, that is to say it uses slow neutrons not fast ones; and it breeds Uranium 233 not Plutonium. And a Plutonium breeder could supply use with energy for millions of years but probably not billions as Thorium can, Thorium is a much more common element than Uranium; but Plutonium breeders are undesirable for a number of other reasons. > We'd just have to be honest and call it as the "plutonium economy", And that is one of those reasons. > But of all of these, solar is the one with the most "headroom" for the > human race, As I've said, we will run out of Thorium in the Earth's crust about the same time as the sun will run out of Hydrogen in it's core. And why do people keep saying that solar energy is renewable? Who renews the 600 million tons of Hydrogen that the Sun transmutes into Helium each second? > > One acre in the temperate zone can host 1/6th to 1/4th of a MW(e) of > solar electric generating capacity, depending on technology and latitude > and cloud cover. The problem isn't just to find energy, the lukewarm oceans contain an enormous amount of energy, the problem is in finding energy in a form that can be easily converted into work, and that is where solar, terrestrial or space based fails, it's just too dilute and unreliable to compete with coal. And if you're really serious about stopping global warming you're going to have to convince the developing world to stop using coal, and you're never going to be able to do that unless you show them a new technology that can produce energy cheaper than coal. I think LFTR's have the potential to be that new technology, I don't think solar does. > Btw, LNG would be an even better aviation fuel, Nuclear reactors are BY FAR the safest way to produce electricity. Since 1969 Nuclear power plants have killed .0085 people per gigawatt year of electricity produced, for Liquefied Petroleum Gas plants it's 2.9 people per gigawatt year of electricity produced. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Jul 14 16:02:31 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 11:02:31 -0500 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby Message-ID: http://www.newyorker.com/humor/2014/07/21/140721sh_shouts_rudnick?utm_source=tny&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailyemail&mbid=nl_Daily%20%28217%29 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Mon Jul 14 16:12:20 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 09:12:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> Excellent. Bill in all these commentaries, note the way they are worded. Look for phrases such as ?Hobby Lobby?has been granted exemption from funding birth control for its employees?? That isn?t true. Hobby Lobby does fund birth control for its employees. It wants nothing to do with funding insurance policies which cover abortifacients or abortifactant of any kind. Hmmm, OK then. I see this as a far easier problem to deal with than the Catholic?s more fundamental opposition to any birth control of any kind. What do you do then? Do the Democrats really want to alienate the entire Catholic religion? Do they *really* want to hand the Republicans *that* big an advantage? I think not. This court decision has saved O-care, for the time being. spike From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace Sent: Monday, July 14, 2014 9:03 AM To: ExI chat list Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby http://www.newyorker.com/humor/2014/07/21/140721sh_shouts_rudnick?utm_source=tny &utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailyemail&mbid=nl_Daily%20%28217%29 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Mon Jul 14 18:06:56 2014 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 11:06:56 -0700 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? Message-ID: On Fri, Jul 11, 2014 at 5:00 AM, "Robert G Kennedy III, PE" wrote: > No, there are 3: > > space-based photovoltaic satellites. > > either in GEO as the late great Peter Glaser invented/envisioned, or at > the Sun-Earth L1 point as we and a few others have proposed. See for > example our "Dyson Dots and Geoengineering: The Killer App to Bootstrap > Us Ad Astra" article in JBIS vol.66, no.10-11, Oct-Nov 2013. I don't know about getting power from L1, might be possible, might cost too much, but in any case, sunshades are a good idea even without energy from them. The best part is that they can be reconfigured to warm the earth as well as cool it. I would not be surprised to see a CO2 crash, and when it gets down below preindustrial levels, we may head into an ice age. If you think global warming causes problem, imagine being able to take a bobsled on a downhill run all the way from Newfoundland to Chicago snip > > But of all of these, solar is the one with the most "headroom" for the > human race, even just down here on /terra firma/. You can do this in terms of physics, but the current trajectory on ground solar runs up against economic cost. The most optimistic person I know in the solar business is Ed Kelly of StratoSolar. Over time he expects solar power to get down to around 10 cents per kWh. The cost for a barrel of synthetic oil (or synthetic jet fuel) is $10 for the capital cost and $20 per cent per kWh for the energy. (It takes 2 MWh to make the hydrogen to make a bbl of oil.) So synthetic oil from the cheapest solar we can imagine will come in at ~$210/bbl. Given the damage oil prices only half that high are causing to the economy, and the fraction of a ticket cost that's from oil, I don't think a lot of people are going to be flying if we depend on ground solar for energy. > The United States alone encompasses 2 billion acres. The US is not the only player. Other countries have intractable energy problems as well. The only problem I see with Dyson Dots is the amount of material needed, in the hundreds of millions of tons. That large even in the context of a power satellite project big enough to completely displace coal an oil. However, if we build the last half of the power satellites with material from the asteroids, then we can keep the mines going a few more decades and have all we need. snip > Btw, LNG would be an even better aviation fuel, especially for > professional (non-amateur) flyers, with far less difficult handling and > density problems than LH2. Expect to see LNG-fueled a/c in the next > decade. Maybe. If you are making synthetic hydrocarbons, you can make stuff more like current jet fuel. LNG is still a PITA to handle. Been looking into using a few ships a week to make hydrogen (the only choice) for Skylons. Keith From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Jul 14 18:37:27 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 14:37:27 -0400 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: In looking over my calculation I see that I made a mistake, I forgot to include the fact that the efficiency of a jet engine is not 100%, 50% would be more like it. So the factory needed to provide the fuel to keep just one 747 in the air would cover closer to 6 square miles of the Earth?s surface than 3 as I originally said. And that my friends just isn't practical. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Jul 14 19:17:55 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 15:17:55 -0400 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 14, 2014 at 12:12 PM, spike wrote: > I see this as a far easier problem to deal with than the Catholic?s more > fundamental opposition to any birth control of any kind. > The pedophiles at the top of the Catholic Church may oppose birth control of any sort but that doesn't mean that Catholic voters do. As far back as 1993 85% of American Catholics approved of birth control and it's probably even higher today. And as a libertarian I have some sympathy with the idea that the government shouldn't tell employers how to compensate their employes, but it makes me mad that they can only ignore the law if they do so for religious reasons, apparently the court thinks that non-religious reasons are less noble. I think it was a mistake to mention religious freedom at all in the Constitution; as long as you've got freedom of speech and freedom of assembly there is no need to single out freedom of religion for special mention because you've already got it automatically. John K Clark > > > > > > > > > What do you do then? Do the Democrats really want to alienate the entire > Catholic religion? Do they **really** want to hand the Republicans * > *that** big an advantage? I think not. This court decision has saved > O-care, for the time being. > > > > spike > > > > *From:* extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto: > extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On Behalf Of *William Flynn > Wallace > *Sent:* Monday, July 14, 2014 9:03 AM > *To:* ExI chat list > *Subject:* [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby > > > > > http://www.newyorker.com/humor/2014/07/21/140721sh_shouts_rudnick?utm_source=tny&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailyemail&mbid=nl_Daily%20%28217%29 > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Tue Jul 15 05:52:31 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 22:52:31 -0700 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 14, 2014 at 12:17 PM, John Clark wrote: > I think it was a mistake to mention religious freedom at all in the > Constitution; as long as you've got freedom of speech and freedom of > assembly there is no need to single out freedom of religion for special > mention because you've already got it automatically. > It was a necessary compromise at the time. (No, really: "put this in or the whole deal collapses" grade.) And it's impossible to remove now. (Too many people would insist that it means the repression of religion, rather than simply removing an unnecessary clause, and no amount of logic is going to convince them.) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Jul 15 09:20:40 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 10:20:40 +0100 Subject: [ExI] How dangerous is radiation? In-Reply-To: <014f01cf9ac9$a8a73c70$f9f5b550$@att.net> References: <014f01cf9ac9$a8a73c70$f9f5b550$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 8, 2014 at 5:28 PM, spike wrote: > The most obvious one was simple: if you spend all day helping set up the > test, then get outta Dodge when they turn on the beam for ten minutes, isn't > that escaping the risk entirely? Wouldn't that be analogous to a couple > fellers working on a motorcycle all day, then one of them rides it away > afterwards. Only one takes any risk, ja? > > Small, portable and cheap radiation detector is being designed for the public. Quote: Ever since the Fukushima nuclear reactor disaster, there has understandably been an upsurge in the sale of consumer radiation-detecting devices. Most of these gadgets are variations on the Geiger counter, in that they alert the user to the presence and level of radiation, but not the type of radiation - which is very important to know. Researchers at Oregon State University are hoping to address that situation, with the MiniSpec. Currently in development, the handheld device will additionally tell its users what type of radionuclide is creating the radiation, and whether it poses a risk. The MiniSpec is actually a miniaturized gamma ray spectrometer, and is claimed to combine digital electronics with a new type of "scintillation detector." The latter typically combines an electronic light sensor with a scintillator, which is a material that luminesces when exposed to radiation. The inclusion of the scintillation detector also allows for the device to be small, durable, lightweight, energy-efficient, and to be able to operate at room temperature. Several models are planned, including one for use around the home. It could be used to check for and analyze radiation emanating from things like soil, granite countertops and concrete walls. Once commercialized, it is hoped that the MiniSpec will sell for under US$150. -------------- BillK From spike66 at att.net Tue Jul 15 15:45:52 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 08:45:52 -0700 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> Message-ID: <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes Sent: Monday, July 14, 2014 10:53 PM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby On Mon, Jul 14, 2014 at 12:17 PM, John Clark wrote: >>?I think it was a mistake to mention religious freedom at all in the Constitution; as long as you've got freedom of speech and freedom of assembly there is no need to single out freedom of religion for special mention because you've already got it automatically. >?It was a necessary compromise at the time? Ja, a necessary compromise at the time and a necessary compromise now. >? (No, really: "put this in or the whole deal collapses" grade.)? Agreed. The Bill of Rights stays in unmodified, or the whole deal collapses even now. >? And it's impossible to remove now. (Too many people would insist that it means the repression of religion, rather than simply removing an unnecessary clause, and no amount of logic is going to convince them.)? Them or me. We think of freedom of religion as having to do with a bunch of white-headed saints praying in some stained-glass building, but I wouldn?t be surprised if someday something we hold sacred is protected by the first amendment freedom of religion. Imagine Alcor being picketed by some yahoos claiming the cryonauts should have a decent burial. Then millions who had never heard of cryonics would counter-protest, arguing that being frozen was the religion of these people and should be respected. (Hey, protesting is what Americans do best.) Like it or not, freedom of religion protects us all. Furthermore? it makes me squirm to even think of removing anything in the Bill of Rights. I feel that is what is happening now with the rise of the bureaucracies. We have freedom of speech in that we cannot be prosecuted in criminal court for our stated opinions. But the BoR doesn?t seem to protect some political views from an IRS audit. Doesn?t protect them from an EPA raid. Freedom of speech doesn?t protect any of us from the NSA reading our email. Note that Edward Snowden revealed what they were doing, yet nothing bad has happened to the NSA, while Snowden remains a fugitive to this day. When these bureaucracies demonstrate they are above the law, nothing bad happens to them. But something bad happens to us. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Tue Jul 15 16:45:59 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 18:45:59 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Digital Eye in the Sky (and a Swastika on the Sun?) Message-ID: <53C55AC7.5000204@libero.it> After reading the article I wonder if there will be, in future, some places so heavily policed that there will be some form of automatic response from law enforcers just in seconds/minutes. Like in the sandboxes of some online MMORG like Eve-online, where if you shoot someone ship in high-security space, the CONCORD digregate your ship in a matter of seconds. And, like in EVE, there will be some place where law enforcement is lax (but status is lost if someone broke the rules) and other places where will be free for all without repercussions from law enforcer. http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/07/digital-eye-in-sky-used-to-captured-34.html Mirco From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 15 17:34:02 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 12:34:02 -0500 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> Message-ID: > > > > We think of freedom of religion as having to do with a bunch of > white-headed saints praying in some stained-glass building, but I wouldn?t > be surprised if someday something we hold sacred is protected by the first > amendment freedom of religion. Like it or not, freedom of religion > protects us all. > > ? > > spike > ?This may be profound or maybe just mindnumbingly obvious: what we really want is to be left alone, and that means with our thoughts, our beliefs, and most particularly, our superstitions and irrationalities? ?. We are run by our emotions more than anything else, despite our rational veneer, and those we do not, cannot change? ? without becoming someone else. How's that for an existential Tuesday?? ?We hold dear the right to be wrong and not have our government try to make us all the same, as in those countries who try to suppress dissent, the press, etc.? ? ....? they are above the law, nothing bad happens to them. But something bad happens to us.? ?I suspect a lot which we may never know until books are written decades in the future about the CIA, NRA, IRS, etc. is going on behind the scenes, including some kicking ass? of the "What were you thinking" variety. But publicly? Nothing. Buried deep, political. bill w > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Jul 15 17:53:09 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 10:53:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> Message-ID: <01b601cfa055$a442cfa0$ecc86ee0$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace >? what we really want is to be left alone, and that means with our thoughts, our beliefs, and most particularly, our superstitions and irrationalities?? Ja. Faith perches safely above the reach of ravenous reason. (spike Jones 2014) ....? they are above the law, nothing bad happens to them. But something bad happens to us.? ?>?I suspect a lot which we may never know until books are written decades in the future about the CIA, NRA, IRS, etc. BillW, if we fail today, there will be no books written decades in the future about any of the above, nor about us. >? But publicly? Nothing. Ja. I want publicly everything. Let the light shine on this corrupt bunch of tyrants. >?Buried deep, political. bill w We need to dig it all up, now. If not now, then never. We can still save ourselves from utter tyranny, but this might very well be our last chance, while we are enjoying the most transparent administration in history, without a smidgen of corruption. The commander in chief himself assured us of these things, so it must be true, period. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 15 18:14:21 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 13:14:21 -0500 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: <01b601cfa055$a442cfa0$ecc86ee0$@att.net> References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> <01b601cfa055$a442cfa0$ecc86ee0$@att.net> Message-ID: ?We need to dig it all up, now. If not now, then never. We can still save ourselves from utter tyranny, but this might very well be our last chance, while we are enjoying the most transparent administration in history, without a smidgen of corruption. The commander in chief himself assured us of these things, so it must be true, period. spike? ?I am not as pessimistic as you are, since I think these sorts of things have always gone on. (Look at the horrors of the FBI under Hoover.) That said, I support any Congressional panel to dig out the truth? ? re any of the things we are discussing. bill w? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Jul 15 18:39:51 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 19:39:51 +0100 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: <01b601cfa055$a442cfa0$ecc86ee0$@att.net> References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> <01b601cfa055$a442cfa0$ecc86ee0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 15, 2014 at 6:53 PM, spike wrote: > BillW, if we fail today, there will be no books written decades in the > future about any of the above, nor about us. > > Ja. I want publicly everything. Let the light shine on this corrupt bunch > of tyrants. > > We need to dig it all up, now. If not now, then never. We can still save > ourselves from utter tyranny, but this might very well be our last chance, > while we are enjoying the most transparent administration in history, > without a smidgen of corruption. The commander in chief himself assured us > of these things, so it must be true, period. spike > I worry about things suspected but not yet known. We now know about the CIA, NSA, IRS, etc. But I suspect things may be much worse. Is Japan lying to their population about radioactive contamination? (Because it is too bad to fix and it won't become apparent for 30 years or so). Is the US supporting chemical corporations while bees and birds are being killed by neonicotinoids? (Again it will be many years before the food chain collapses). Is the US militarizing the police in preparation for civil war? (Because the food chain and financial system may collapse). And so on. It is the unknown unknowns that may hit us. BillK From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 15 18:53:56 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 13:53:56 -0500 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> <01b601cfa055$a442cfa0$ecc86ee0$@att.net> Message-ID: > I worry about things suspected but not yet known. > We now know about the CIA, NSA, IRS, etc. > But I suspect things may be much worse. > > Is Japan lying to their population about radioactive contamination? > (Because it is too bad to fix and it won't become apparent for 30 years or > so). > > Is the US supporting chemical corporations while bees and birds are > being killed by neonicotinoids? > (Again it will be many years before the food chain collapses). > > Is the US militarizing the police in preparation for civil war? > (Because the food chain and financial system may collapse). > > And so on. It is the unknown unknowns that may hit us. > > BillK > ?This is the royal road to paranoia. bill w? > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Jul 15 19:12:35 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 15:12:35 -0400 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 15, 2014 at 11:45 AM, spike wrote: > > Imagine Alcor being picketed by some yahoos claiming the cryonauts > should have a decent burial. Then millions who had never heard of cryonics > would counter-protest, arguing that being frozen was the religion of these > people and should be respected. > Maybe Alcor should declare itself a religion, a religion of reason with no doctrines except for one: Individuals should be able to decide for themselves when they die. Alcor could tell Fox News and Rush Limbaugh that stopping them from performing euthanasia on willing church members would violate the religious freedom of Alcor and of its congregation. And as a bonus there would be sweet tax breaks. Stupid people call Cryonics a religion anyway so they might as well make it official and get some advantage out of it. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From robot at ultimax.com Tue Jul 15 19:22:42 2014 From: robot at ultimax.com (Robert G Kennedy III, PE) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 15:22:42 -0400 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?How_will_air_travel_work_in_a_green_solar_economy?= =?utf-8?q?=3F?= In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Keith Henson replied to John Clark: > I don't know about getting power from L1, might be possible, might > cost too much, but in any case, sunshades are a good idea even > without > energy from them. The best part is that they can be reconfigured to > warm the earth as well as cool it. Yes, one of our selling points is that the scheme is reversible. > The only problem I see with Dyson Dots is the amount of material > needed, in the hundreds of millions of tons. That large even in the > context of a power satellite project big enough to completely > displace > coal an oil. However, if we build the last half of the power > satellites with material from the asteroids, then we can keep the > mines going a few more decades and have all we need. Yes, hundreds of Mt. Other than a first prototype article, we're not thinking of boosting any of it off Earth. Too dang expensive. For a project of this scale, it's off-world materials or nothing. Now, I will concede that 2/3 of that mass in space is driven by the power generation function we're piggybacking on the sunshade function. Robert From dan_ust at yahoo.com Tue Jul 15 21:00:55 2014 From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 14:00:55 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Bringing the dead back to life In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <1405458055.91261.YahooMailNeo@web161606.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> I understand the fears of using "suspended animation" -- bad public relations and setting expectations really high -- but that's kind of what it is, no? It's only short term though. I wonder what the limits of this technique will be and how quickly, if it's successful in humans, it can be rolled out to trauma centers across the globe -- heck, if it can be turned into something an EMT or just about anyone (no offense to EMTs) can use anywhere so that a trauma victim can simply be stored until they get to a location where they can be patched up. ? Regards, Dan http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140704-i-bring-the-dead-back-to-life From spike66 at att.net Tue Jul 15 21:47:03 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 14:47:03 -0700 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> <01b601cfa055$a442cfa0$ecc86ee0$@att.net> Message-ID: <02ee01cfa076$5180e2e0$f482a8a0$@att.net> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace Subject: Re: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby ?>>?We need to dig it all up, now. If not now, then never. We can still save ourselves from utter tyranny, but this might very well be our last chance, while we are enjoying the most transparent administration in history, without a smidgen of corruption. The commander in chief himself assured us of these things, so it must be true, period. spike? ?>?I am not as pessimistic as you are, since I think these sorts of things have always gone on. (Look at the horrors of the FBI under Hoover.) Exactly. If we don?t dig out this corruption now, we could have something a lot like Hoover?s FBI, only worse this time. The political pendulum is about to swing hard, but I don?t think the other guys are any more honest or transparent or less power-lustful than the current ones; if anything less so. What makes it worse is that they are coming in with a pile of dangerous precedents. For instance, if we establish that the IRS and the other bureaucracies can go after whoever they want based on any whim, what happens if the party currently out of the majority gets all three seats of power? What if the tail end of the current POTUS?s term becomes a total catastrophe and the current senate minority party gets not only all three seats of power but a supermajority in the senate? They come in with all the bad precedents handed to them from their predecessors. I can so easily see that being brutally abused. Power corrupts both ends of the political spectrum along with everything in the middle and all the edges. It isn?t the philosophy that corrupts, it?s the power. >?That said, I support any Congressional panel to dig out the truth? ? re any of the things we are discussing. bill w? Hope so BillW. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Jul 15 22:07:49 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 15:07:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> <01b601cfa055$a442cfa0$ecc86ee0$@att.net> Message-ID: <031a01cfa079$37901470$a6b03d50$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of BillK Subject: Re: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby On Tue, Jul 15, 2014 at 6:53 PM, spike wrote: > ... > >>... We need to dig it all up, now. If not now, then never. We can still > save ourselves from utter tyranny, but this might very well be our > last chance, while we are enjoying the most transparent > administration in history, without a smidgen of corruption... >...Is Japan lying to their population about radioactive contamination? (Because it is too bad to fix and it won't become apparent for 30 years or so)... Fortunately that is one which can be measured and verified independently. Anyone with scientific sophistication and a radiation detector can figure out the dose the locals are getting, then find in the open literature what are the likely effects. >...Is the US supporting chemical corporations while bees and birds are being killed by neonicotinoids? (Again it will be many years before the food chain collapses)... Oy vey, ja. Just this morning I saw 8 dead bees right together in a 10 meter radius, but these did not perish from exposure: it was 25C last night. That's the second largest cluster of dead bees I have seen, and the other was explainable with the neonic model: they got lost and perished of exposure on a cold night. These 8 didn't die of that. >...Is the US militarizing the police in preparation for civil war? (Because the food chain and financial system may collapse)... BillK BillK, google on US military, zombies. There are apparently all these scenarios the DoD has been studying which include this zombie concept, but they aren't talking about the living dead and haven't taken up superstition. Military leaders are charged with being prepared. One set of scenarios include hordes of starving sick people, wandering about looking for food. If you are the military, what do you do? Well, what then? Hell if I know. Stockpile food and weapons? Sure, then your own little neighbor girl comes crying at your door, then what in the goddam hell are you going to do, shoot her? No. You would sooner shoot yourself and let the neighbor kids eat you. We had a good life, we overspent, we spent their future, it's our fault if tragedy and collapse hits us. It was our generation which created all this debt, and kept piling it on long after it became clear what we were doing. We saw that coal and oil had to decline; we know it's finite, even if large. We know what has to happen somehow. If we see what needs to happen and fail to get it done, it's our fault, not theirs. Oy vey, that's the most grim post I have ever written. My apologies please. spike From spike66 at att.net Tue Jul 15 22:12:47 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 15:12:47 -0700 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> Message-ID: <031b01cfa079$e9bbf510$bd33df30$@att.net> On Behalf Of John Clark Subject: Re: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby On Tue, Jul 15, 2014 at 11:45 AM, spike wrote: >>? Imagine Alcor being picketed by some yahoos claiming the cryonauts should have a decent burial. Then millions who had never heard of cryonics would counter-protest, arguing that being frozen was the religion of these people and should be respected. >?Maybe Alcor should declare itself a religion, a religion of reason with no doctrines except for one: Individuals should be able to decide for themselves when they die. Alcor could tell Fox News and Rush Limbaugh that stopping them from performing euthanasia on willing church members would violate the religious freedom of Alcor and of its congregation. And as a bonus there would be sweet tax breaks. Stupid people call Cryonics a religion anyway so they might as well make it official and get some advantage out of it. John K Clark John, if euthanasia is the question, Rush Limbaugh is your ally rather than your adversary. He is conservative but has a libertarian streak a mile long. As for Alcor declaring itself a religion, that too is a double edged sword. I don?t claim to have the answers, but that thought has occurred to me too. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Jul 15 22:24:09 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 15:24:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: <02ee01cfa076$5180e2e0$f482a8a0$@att.net> References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> <01b601cfa055$a442cfa0$ecc86ee0$@att.net> <02ee01cfa076$5180e2e0$f482a8a0$@att.net> Message-ID: <032001cfa07b$81ac7ba0$850572e0$@att.net> ?>?I am not as pessimistic as you are, since I think these sorts of things have always gone on. (Look at the horrors of the FBI under Hoover.)? The following would not be so remarkable, except that it was written while on duty as a person from the executive branch of the federal government, employed in elections law enforcement. Would this be an example of a smidgen of corruption? Read it all: http://reason.com/blog/2014/07/15/fec-recycled-hard-drive-of-attorney-unde FEC Recycled Hard Drive of Attorney Under Investigation for Potentially Illegal Political Activity Peter Suderman|Jul. 15, 2014 1:24 pm ? Until April of this year, April Sands was an attorney at the Federal Elections Commission?s (FEC) Enforcement Division. That division is responsible for enforcement of federal elections law generally and is specifically charged with investigating "alleged violations of the law" and well as making recommendations to the FEC about "appropriate action to take with respect to apparent violations." http://cloudfront-media.reason.com/mc/psuderman/2014_07/April-Sands-Tweet-POTUSbday.png?h=241&w=310During her time at the FEC, however, Sands sent out numerous tweets expressing support for President Obama and other Democrats, opposing Republicans, and even explicitly urging followers to donate to a Democratic candidate. In her tweets, sent from the handle @ReignOfApril, Sands expressed an intense dislike of Republicans. "I just don?t understand how anyone but straight white men can vote Republican. What kind of delusional rhetorical does one use?" she tweeted in July of 2012. "If you?re still calling yourself a Republican after the #WarOnWomen, their stated RNC platform, & Birtherism, you are my enemy," she wrote in August of the same year. She noted her own donations, and pushed others to give as well. "Our #POTUS?s birthday is August 4. He?ll be 51. I?m donating at least $51 to give him the best birthday present ever: a second term," she said in a July 2012 tweet. "Donate to @clairecmc [the Twitter handle of Missouri Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill] today," she tweeted the next month. "Romney is toast," said a message sent in September. "But POTUS can't do it all on his own. Don't forget Congressional races. We need a Democratic sweep. Stay focused." Sands is, of course, entitled to her political opinions, whatever they are. But as an Executive Branch employee, she was prohibited from engaging in partisan political activity while on duty in a federal workplace. The Hatch Act, which places limits on such activity, also makes it a crime for employees to solicit money in connection with an election "while in any room or building occupied in the discharge of official duties." http://cloudfront-media.reason.com/mc/psuderman/2014_07/April-Sands-Tweet-GOPenemy2.png?h=128&w=290Did Sands engage in criminal activity? The FEC?s Office of Special Counsel and Inspector General?s office investigated Sands? behavior, and last April, announced that she had resigned as part of a settlement agreement. Sands admitted to conducting political activity, including fundraising, on Twitter, and also to taking part in a political discussion using a webcam while in an FEC conference room. She was on duty at the time. But as a letter from House Oversight Committee Chairman Darrell Issa (R-Ca.) and Regulatory Affairs Subcommittee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Oh.) notes, the investigation stopped short of pursuing criminal charges. According to the letter, which provided background on Sands and copies of her tweets, Sands' computer hard drive was recycled, and its records wiped, before the FEC?s Inspector General could get access to it. "The bias exhibited [by Sands? tweets] is striking," the letter says, "especially for an attorney charged with the responsibility to enforce federal election laws fairly and dispassionately." The letter requests comprehensive information explaining how the FEC managed to let Sands? hard drive be recycled. The odd kicker to the story: Prior to 2001, long before the tweets were sent, Sand worked at the FEC under the supervision of Lois Lerner, who for the last year has been at the center of an ongoing congressional investigation into possible targeting of conservative non-profit groups by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Lerner headed the IRS office in charge of tax exemptions, but has indicated that many of her emails during the time frame under investigation cannot be produced for congressional investigators. Her hard drive crashed less than two weeks after the House sent its first letter investigating scrutiny of non-profit groups, and it could not be restored, preventing investigators from accessing its contents. There is no direct connection between the recycling of Sands? hard drive and Lerner?s conveniently timed crash. But, especially when combined with the fact that six other IRS employees have apparently also lost record, at least one because of another computer crash, it does appear that federal employees are having a remarkably difficult time maintaining electronic records that might be useful to investigators. Peter Suderman is a senior editor at Reason magazine. Follow Peter Suderman on Twitter -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: application/octet-stream Size: 49800 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.png Type: application/octet-stream Size: 28630 bytes Desc: not available URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 15 23:44:07 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 18:44:07 -0500 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: <032001cfa07b$81ac7ba0$850572e0$@att.net> References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> <01b601cfa055$a442cfa0$ecc86ee0$@att.net> <02ee01cfa076$5180e2e0$f482a8a0$@att.net> <032001cfa07b$81ac7ba0$850572e0$@att.net> Message-ID: ?e need to dig it all up, now. If not now, then never. We can still > save ourselves from utter tyranny, but this might very well be our > last chance, while we are enjoying the most transparent > administration in history, without a smidgen of corruption... Spike, what we have here is the Aesop (?) fable: we know what needs to be done, but who will do it? Who will bell the cat? bill w ? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Wed Jul 16 03:58:22 2014 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 20:58:22 -0700 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 15, 2014 at 3:37 PM, "Robert G Kennedy III, PE" wrote: snip > > Yes, hundreds of Mt. Other than a first prototype article, we're not > thinking of boosting any of it off Earth. Too dang expensive. For a > project of this scale, it's off-world materials or nothing. I suggest that even the prototype might be built of asteroid materials. Though if sunshades come after power satellites, the transport cost can't be very high. > Now, I will concede that 2/3 of that mass in space is driven by the > power generation function we're piggybacking on the sunshade function. If you are mainly after energy, and building up space industry so it could build sunshades, it might be better to populate GEO with power satellites first. If we eventually tap L1 for energy, the GEO power sats could be converted to relay stations. If we were pouring energy captured at L1 into the earth system, sunshades might be required to keep the energy gain down. Keith From dan_ust at yahoo.com Wed Jul 16 06:31:23 2014 From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan Ust) Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 23:31:23 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Steampunk 3d printer Message-ID: http://3dprintingindustry.com/2014/07/16/3d-printing-goes-analog/ Regards, Dan Latest story: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00LIIVLO2 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Wed Jul 16 15:24:50 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 11:24:50 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Radiation danger (was: sendup of Hobby Lobby) Message-ID: On Jul 15, 2014, at 2:39 PM, BillK wrote: > Is Japan lying to their population about radioactive contamination? > Yes, although not as extensively as the USSR lied to its people after Chernobyl. > Because it is too bad to fix and it won't become apparent for 30 years or > so > We can get a pretty good idea of what to expect at Fukushima by looking at Chernobyl which happened 28 years ago and was much worst than Fukushima. By far the most serious cancer related issue regarding Chernobyl was an additional 4000 cases of thyroid cancer that showed up very soon among children living near the plant. Fortunately thyroid cancer is one of the more easily treated cancers so out of the 4000 only 10 died. And the number of thyroid cancers could have been zero if the government had simply given dirt cheap Iodine pills to the children in the area within 4 hours of the accident, but it was days before the USSR told the world that a accident had occurred at all and it took days for them to stop telling the people that lived near the plant that the explosion and fire they saw was more than just a minor irregularity. There will be no increase in thyroid cancer at Fukushima, if there were we'd see it by now, and that is not surprising because although the Japanese government lied it didn't do so anywhere near as egregiously as the USSR did. Other than the thyroid cancers a UN panel could find no increase in cancer, or increase in birth defects or infertility problems; however it did find a big increase in psychological problems caused by the widespread terror of radiation. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Wed Jul 16 15:48:05 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 08:48:05 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Radiation danger (was: sendup of Hobby Lobby) In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Jul 16, 2014 8:25 AM, "John Clark" wrote: > Other than the thyroid cancers a UN panel could find no increase in cancer, or increase in birth defects or infertility problems; however it did find a big increase in psychological problems caused by the widespread terror of radiation. The relocations/evacuations of civilians who weren't in actual danger have themselves caused a number of deaths, that could have been prevented by not overreacting. The liars with health consequences are those who claim there has been enough radioactive contamination to cause health issues at significant distances from the plants. Put another way, just insisting or speculating that there has been more radioactive contamination than acknowledged, without accepting the strong evidence that things are at safe levels (away from the plants themselves, at least), has itself killed more people than the contamination - if it were present - could. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Wed Jul 16 15:53:36 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 08:53:36 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Radiation danger (was: sendup of Hobby Lobby) In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <054d01cfa10e$1af52040$50df60c0$@att.net> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes >?Put another way, just insisting or speculating that there has been more radioactive contamination than acknowledged, without accepting the strong evidence that things are at safe levels (away from the plants themselves, at least), has itself killed more people than the contamination - if it were present - could? Another angle: it seems like placebo effect would work both directions. Perhaps positive placebo effect works on optimistic people and the negative works on pessimistic people. I know plenty of pessimists who seem to somehow will themselves into sickness. I think I know more pessimists than optimists. Perhaps I am comparing them to myself, the well-known super-optimist. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Wed Jul 16 16:41:42 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 17:41:42 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies Message-ID: I don't think anybody has mentioned that Nick Bostrom's new book is now available at Amazon UK. (September 3, 2014 for US orders on Amazon.com, but you can pre-order). Book Description Publication Date: 3 July 2014 The human brain has some capabilities that the brains of other animals lack. It is to these distinctive capabilities that our species owes its dominant position. Other animals have stronger muscles or sharper claws, but we have cleverer brains. If machine brains one day come to surpass human brains in general intelligence, then this new superintelligence could become very powerful. As the fate of the gorillas now depends more on us humans than on the gorillas themselves, so the fate of our species then would come to depend on the actions of the machine superintelligence. But we have one advantage: we get to make the first move. Will it be possible to construct a seed AI or otherwise to engineer initial conditions so as to make an intelligence explosion survivable? How could one achieve a controlled detonation? To get closer to an answer to this question, we must make our way through a fascinating landscape of topics and considerations. Read the book and learn about oracles, genies, singletons; about boxing methods, tripwires, and mind crime; about humanity's cosmic endowment and differential technological development; indirect normativity, instrumental convergence, whole brain emulation and technology couplings; Malthusian economics and dystopian evolution; artificial intelligence, and biological cognitive enhancement, and collective intelligence. This profoundly ambitious and original book picks its way carefully through a vast tract of forbiddingly difficult intellectual terrain. Yet the writing is so lucid that it somehow makes it all seem easy. After an utterly engrossing journey that takes us to the frontiers of thinking about the human condition and the future of intelligent life, we find in Nick Bostrom's work nothing less than a reconceptualization of the essential task of our time. ---------- BillK From protokol2020 at gmail.com Wed Jul 16 17:46:49 2014 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 19:46:49 +0200 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Over my small (Central European) country, there are about 10 large passenger planes every moment. Their combined power is roughly equal to all the hydroelectric, coal and nuclear power beneath them - combined. I am not sure is this pathetic or glorious fact. I guess both. On Wed, Jul 16, 2014 at 5:58 AM, Keith Henson wrote: > On Tue, Jul 15, 2014 at 3:37 PM, "Robert G Kennedy III, PE" > wrote: > > snip > > > > Yes, hundreds of Mt. Other than a first prototype article, we're not > > thinking of boosting any of it off Earth. Too dang expensive. For a > > project of this scale, it's off-world materials or nothing. > > I suggest that even the prototype might be built of asteroid materials. > > Though if sunshades come after power satellites, the transport cost > can't be very high. > > > Now, I will concede that 2/3 of that mass in space is driven by the > > power generation function we're piggybacking on the sunshade function. > > If you are mainly after energy, and building up space industry so it > could build sunshades, it might be better to populate GEO with power > satellites first. If we eventually tap L1 for energy, the GEO power > sats could be converted to relay stations. If we were pouring energy > captured at L1 into the earth system, sunshades might be required to > keep the energy gain down. > > Keith > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -- https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Wed Jul 16 18:16:10 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 11:16:10 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Radiation danger (was: sendup of Hobby Lobby) In-Reply-To: <054d01cfa10e$1af52040$50df60c0$@att.net> References: <054d01cfa10e$1af52040$50df60c0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Jul 16, 2014 9:07 AM, "spike" wrote: > Another angle: it seems like placebo effect would work both directions. This wasn't placebo. This was elderly people removed from their medications, already-hospitalized-for-unrelated-reasons folk who did not survive transportation, and the like. Reports from two years afterward showed 0 deaths due to radiation, but over 1,000 dead due to the evacuation itself. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Jul 16 21:50:21 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 16:50:21 -0500 Subject: [ExI] puzzle Message-ID: Spike said you liked puzzles, so I created one out of an old question: Take a glass and fill it to the halfway mark. Is it half full or half empty, is the usual question. My question: in what circumstance (s) may it be regarded as full? bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Wed Jul 16 22:12:37 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 15:12:37 -0700 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <074901cfa143$0dbaa410$292fec30$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace Sent: Wednesday, July 16, 2014 2:50 PM To: ExI chat list Subject: [ExI] puzzle Spike said you liked puzzles, so I created one out of an old question: Take a glass and fill it to the halfway mark. Is it half full or half empty, is the usual question. My question: in what circumstance (s) may it be regarded as full? bill w The halfway mark was put in the wrong place up near the top? {8^D Perhaps the yahoo who drew the halfway mark was an obsessive pessimist and needed the liquid level up that high before he would agree the glass was half full. {8^D spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From mbb386 at main.nc.us Wed Jul 16 23:17:45 2014 From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 19:17:45 -0400 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <53e7a432ba4ecad10fb2a8cd82bf0080.squirrel@www.main.nc.us> When you're fixing it for a 2 year old child... Regards, MB > Spike said you liked puzzles, so I created one out of an > old question: > > Take a glass and fill it to the halfway mark. Is it half > full or half > empty, is the usual question. > > My question: in what circumstance (s) may it be regarded > as full? > From rex at nosyntax.net Wed Jul 16 23:48:05 2014 From: rex at nosyntax.net (rex) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 16:48:05 -0700 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <20140716234805.GN3988@nosyntax.net> William Flynn Wallace [2014-07-16 14:51]: > Take a glass and fill it to the halfway mark.** Is it half full or half > empty, is the usual question. > > My question:** in what circumstance (s) may it be regarded as full?** When there is enough shaking in the environment to: a) cause any level above the halfway mark to slop over the edge; b) when any level above the halfway mark raises the CG enough to cause the container to topple. -rex -- Q: How are tales like trees? A: Both grow taller over time. From sjv2006 at gmail.com Thu Jul 17 00:31:04 2014 From: sjv2006 at gmail.com (Stephen Van Sickle) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 17:31:04 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Radiation danger (was: sendup of Hobby Lobby) In-Reply-To: <054d01cfa10e$1af52040$50df60c0$@att.net> References: <054d01cfa10e$1af52040$50df60c0$@att.net> Message-ID: > Another angle: it seems like placebo effect would work both directions. > The nocebo effect: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nocebo -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Thu Jul 17 00:50:42 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 17:50:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Radiation danger (was: sendup of Hobby Lobby) In-Reply-To: References: <054d01cfa10e$1af52040$50df60c0$@att.net> Message-ID: <080e01cfa159$236274d0$6a275e70$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Stephen Van Sickle Sent: Wednesday, July 16, 2014 5:31 PM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] Radiation danger (was: sendup of Hobby Lobby) Another angle: it seems like placebo effect would work both directions. >?The nocebo effect: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nocebo There is a legend I heard some time ago, but never checked the historical veracity. Perhaps someone here knows. According to the story, in 1948 when Israel was forming, armies from the surrounding nations formed up invasion forces to go and hurl the Israelis into the sea. Being a motley crew made up of people from various cultures and languages, the attack wasn?t coordinated as well as they might have hoped. At a strategic point in the invasion, the Israelis dropped a number of 500kg bombs which kicked up a hell of a dust cloud. Somehow the rumor started that America had given the Jews the atomic bomb, and that dust in everyone?s hair was radioactive fallout. The invaders broke and ran in panic; the whole invasion fell apart. I don?t know if that story is true or was exaggerated. It would be interesting to see if any of the fleeing invaders experienced radiation sickness from non-radioactive fallout. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Thu Jul 17 01:22:15 2014 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 21:22:15 -0400 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Jul 16, 2014 5:51 PM, "William Flynn Wallace" wrote: > My question: in what circumstance (s) may it be regarded as full? When the liquid you are filling the glass with is sufficiently dense that it displaces the liquid previously filling the glass to the half full mark, causing the old contents to float atop the new until the glass is actually full. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Thu Jul 17 02:11:15 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 19:11:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <085d01cfa164$64509d40$2cf1d7c0$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty Sent: Wednesday, July 16, 2014 6:22 PM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] puzzle On Jul 16, 2014 5:51 PM, "William Flynn Wallace" wrote: >>? My question: in what circumstance (s) may it be regarded as full? >?When the liquid you are filling the glass with is sufficiently dense that it displaces the liquid previously filling the glass to the half full mark, causing the old contents to float atop the new until the glass is actually full. Excellent Mike! {8^D BillW, when they have had a chance to make suggestions, do feel free to post that list I sent you earlier (the second list with the appended notions.) Give them at least until tomorrow evening. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Thu Jul 17 02:39:12 2014 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 22:39:12 -0400 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Jul 16, 2014 5:51 PM, "William Flynn Wallace" wrote: > My question: in what circumstance (s) may it be regarded as full? If the halfway mark was created by drilling through the glass, no more liquid can remain in the glass after exceeding this new max-fill point. The liquid itself will expand exactly twice its volume due to internal chemical reactions. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Thu Jul 17 05:36:55 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 22:36:55 -0700 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <005701cfa181$1f54d4a0$5dfe7de0$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty Sent: Wednesday, July 16, 2014 7:39 PM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] puzzle On Jul 16, 2014 5:51 PM, "William Flynn Wallace" wrote: > My question: in what circumstance (s) may it be regarded as full? If the halfway mark was created by drilling through the glass, no more liquid can remain in the glass after exceeding this new max-fill point. The liquid itself will expand exactly twice its volume due to internal chemical reactions?. See, there ya go, BillW, they are thinking outside the box. Regarding that list I sent you earlier, they are going to bust my chops on one of those items. I had suggested a saturated aqueous solution of plutonium perchlorate was placed in the glass to such a depth that adding more would assemble a critical mass and so a wise man would call that subcritical mass FULL. But after I thought about it, I realized that even if you purify the isotope of plutonium which would require the smallest mass to achieve criticality, no aqueous solution could ever get there, even assuming the most soluble plutonium salt and the most aggressive aqueous solvent such as a mixture of nitric and sulfuric acids. I did some BOTECs and realized you would get nowhere near a critical mass that way even if you had oceans of the stuff. You would still be orders of magnitude from a criticality. Just like anything on our scale, the nuclear capture cross section decreases as the inverse square of the distance, so the plutonium ions in an aqueous solution could emit alphas all day and never cause a criticality. So I bust my own chops in advance, and I scold me for not thinking of something obvious like that before I wrote the list, damn. Embarrassed am I. The force is weak with this one. {8-[ spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Thu Jul 17 09:36:18 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 11:36:18 +0200 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <53C79912.8020007@libero.it> Il 16/07/2014 23:50, William Flynn Wallace ha scritto: > Spike said you liked puzzles, so I created one out of an old question: > > Take a glass and fill it to the halfway mark. Is it half full or half > empty, is the usual question. > > My question: in what circumstance (s) may it be regarded as full? When the halfway mark is not on the glass but on some other object (a scale?) and the half way mark in question is at the level of the full glass we are filling. Mirco From painlord2k at libero.it Thu Jul 17 10:12:46 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 12:12:46 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Radiation danger (was: sendup of Hobby Lobby) In-Reply-To: <080e01cfa159$236274d0$6a275e70$@att.net> References: <054d01cfa10e$1af52040$50df60c0$@att.net> <080e01cfa159$236274d0$6a275e70$@att.net> Message-ID: <53C7A19E.7050501@libero.it> Il 17/07/2014 02:50, spike ha scritto: > I don?t know if that story is true or was exaggerated. It would be > interesting to see if any of the fleeing invaders experienced > radiation sickness from non-radioactive fallout. I doubt they knew the symptoms and signs of radiation poisoning. Arabs don't read Why Don?t Arabs Read? http://www.arabnews.com/node/253574 > Have we forgotten the statement by Moshe Dayan, the Israeli defense > minister, after the 1967 war? When asked if he had been concerned > about the war plans being published before being executed, his answer > ? which has become famous ? was, ?Arabs do not read.? Mirco From msd001 at gmail.com Thu Jul 17 10:57:53 2014 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 06:57:53 -0400 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: <53C79912.8020007@libero.it> References: <53C79912.8020007@libero.it> Message-ID: On Jul 17, 2014 5:48 AM, "Mirco Romanato" wrote: > > When the halfway mark is not on the glass but on some other object (a scale?) and the half way mark in question is at the level of the full glass we are filling. Heh, nice. Suppose "halfway" is Mark's nickname... full to the 'halfway mark' would be regarded as full to him by definition. :) With a low, wide glass filled to half volume on a level table that is then tilted so the fluid level reaches the lower edge of the glass could now be regarded as full because additional liquid would spill. If a job is done poorly it is referred to as "half-assed." If the job is done well, should it be called "full-assed" or "no-assed"? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Thu Jul 17 14:11:39 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 07:11:39 -0700 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: References: <53C79912.8020007@libero.it> Message-ID: <010601cfa1c9$07e5c1b0$17b14510$@att.net> >? On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty Subject: Re: [ExI] puzzle On Jul 17, 2014 5:48 AM, "Mirco Romanato" wrote: > > ?If a job is done poorly it is referred to as "half-assed." If the job is done well, should it be called "full-assed" or "no-assed"? That?s one of those tricky ones. If a disgruntled employee is unhappy, are the happy ones gruntled? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Thu Jul 17 14:27:10 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 10:27:10 -0400 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Wed, Jul 16, 2014 at 5:50 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > Take a glass and fill it to the halfway mark. Is it half full or half > empty, is the usual question. > My question: in what circumstance (s) may it be regarded as full? > If the volume of the glass is infinite then a half full glass has as much milk as a full glass. The same would be true if the volume of the glass was zero. John K Clark > > bill w > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Thu Jul 17 14:50:08 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 10:50:08 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read Message-ID: On Jul 17, 2014, at 6:12 AM, Mirco Romanato wrote: > Why Don?t Arabs Read? > One reason may be that the number of books translated into Arabic since the death of Caliph Al-Ma?moun in 833 AD is less than the number of books translated into Spanish just last year. If you believe that all the world's wisdom can be found in just one book why read any other? John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Thu Jul 17 14:45:17 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 16:45:17 +0200 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: <010601cfa1c9$07e5c1b0$17b14510$@att.net> References: <53C79912.8020007@libero.it> <010601cfa1c9$07e5c1b0$17b14510$@att.net> Message-ID: <53C7E17D.2020706@libero.it> Il 17/07/2014 16:11, spike ha scritto: > *>?**On Behalf Of *Mike Dougherty > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] puzzle > > > On Jul 17, 2014 5:48 AM, "Mirco Romanato" > wrote: > > > > ?If a job is done poorly it is referred to as "half-assed." If the > job is done well, should it be called "full-assed" or "no-assed"? > > That?s one of those tricky ones. If a disgruntled employee is unhappy, > are the happy ones gruntled? grun?tled ?gr?ntld/ adjective humorous pleased, satisfied, and contented. Apparently YES. Mirco From spike66 at att.net Thu Jul 17 15:06:56 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 08:06:56 -0700 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <015301cfa1d0$c0bcec70$4236c550$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark Sent: Thursday, July 17, 2014 7:27 AM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] puzzle On Wed, Jul 16, 2014 at 5:50 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > Take a glass and fill it to the halfway mark. Is it half full or half empty, is the usual question. My question: in what circumstance (s) may it be regarded as full? bill w If the volume of the glass is infinite then a half full glass has as much milk as a full glass. The same would be true if the volume of the glass was zero. John K Clark Sure, but this is a thought experiment. So the glass is imaginary. If we theorize the linear dimension of the glass is imaginary, then the area it covers on the table it the square of the imaginary linear dimension, so the area is real and negative. The volume of the glass is both negative and imaginary. So now if we add imaginary liquid, does it fill the glass or empty it? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Thu Jul 17 18:23:52 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 11:23:52 -0700 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: References: <53C79912.8020007@libero.it> Message-ID: If the halfway "mark" is as tall as the glass is, any amount of filling from 0% to 100% would be "to" this mark. Alternately, if it's a really short glass (more like a petri dish), the meniscus curve of whatever fluid it is filled with might make a given fill amount cover both 50% of the way from the bottom and 100%. On Jul 17, 2014 3:58 AM, "Mike Dougherty" wrote: > If a job is done poorly it is referred to as "half-assed." If the job is done well, should it be called "full-assed" or "no-assed"? Full, if I understand the etymology correctly. (In short: the amount of work a donkey - or "ass" - does.) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Thu Jul 17 18:29:06 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 14:29:06 -0400 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 15, 2014 at 3:12 PM, John Clark wrote: > > > Maybe Alcor should declare itself a religion, a religion of reason with no > doctrines except for one: Individuals should be able to decide for > themselves when they die. Alcor could tell Fox News and Rush Limbaugh that > stopping them from performing euthanasia on willing church members would > violate the religious freedom of Alcor and of its congregation. And as a > bonus there would be sweet tax breaks. Stupid people call Cryonics a > religion anyway so they might as well make it official and get some > advantage out of it. > ### The Society for Venturism is a cryonics religion. I am half of a mind to join, for the reasons you mention. You do get a no-autopsy card that probably won't stop a coroner but then it's cheap, so why not. Rafal A-1941 PS to everybody - Have you signed up for Alcor already? Do so, you don't know the day or the hour. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Thu Jul 17 19:14:17 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 15:14:17 -0400 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> <01b601cfa055$a442cfa0$ecc86ee0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 15, 2014 at 2:14 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > > > That said, I support any Congressional panel to dig out the truth? > ? re any of the things we are discussing. bill w? > > ### I don't. Why bother? The problem is not a few leftoids infesting DC. There is a structural problem that won't be solved by investigations. The fifth estate does not act under a feedback loop. While your grocery is on the tightest leash possible (daily easy exit by individual informed customers), your senator is under a much weaker and distorted feedback loop (occasional votes), the deep government is essentially under nobody's control. You can't threaten them physically (strongest feedback known), refuse them your cooperation/money (second strongest loop), you can't run away, all you can is to use your 1/100 000 000 voice to influencing somebody else (the 0.01% of the government that you can contribute to electing) and hope that 0.01% you have under a weak feedback loop would control the remaining 99.99%. It's a pipe dream. The only solution is term limits for every single government employee, from the janitors up. Ten years and you are out. No exceptions, not for rank and file penpushers, not for middle management, not for scientists, not for generals, not for anyone. That's the only long-term way to prevent the accumulation of hypocritical, status-obsessed scum in the corridors of power. They say "Power corrupts"? Well, let's protect innocent people from corruption by making sure they don't have power long enough to soil their precious little souls. And while we are at it, let's take away their civil rights while employed there - no right to vote during and for 10 years after leaving government employment (same for anybody receiving welfare, of course). And let's have an IQ test as a civil service entrance exam. Of course, this won't happen. Some problems, seemingly under human control, actually don't have solutions. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Thu Jul 17 19:21:32 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 15:21:32 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Radiation danger (was: sendup of Hobby Lobby) In-Reply-To: <054d01cfa10e$1af52040$50df60c0$@att.net> References: <054d01cfa10e$1af52040$50df60c0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Wed, Jul 16, 2014 at 11:53 AM, spike wrote: > > Another angle: it seems like placebo effect would work both directions. > Perhaps positive placebo effect works on optimistic people and the negative > works on pessimistic people. I know plenty of pessimists who seem to > somehow will themselves into sickness. I think I know more pessimists than > optimists. Perhaps I am comparing them to myself, the well-known > super-optimist. > ### It's the "nocebo" effect, well-known in medical circles: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nocebo -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Thu Jul 17 20:02:26 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 15:02:26 -0500 Subject: [ExI] a little more fun Message-ID: https://www.google.com/search?q=funny+store+names&client=firefox-a&hs=5XW&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&channel=sb&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=MQfIU9mzNsTL8QGUrYH4DQ&ved=0CB4QsAQ&biw=1781&bih=910&dpr=0.87 bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Thu Jul 17 20:10:08 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 15:10:08 -0500 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> <01b601cfa055$a442cfa0$ecc86ee0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Thu, Jul 17, 2014 at 2:14 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki < rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote: > > > That said, I support any Congressional panel to dig out the truth? >> ? re any of the things we are discussing. bill w? >> >> > > ### I don't. Why bother? The problem is not a few leftoids infesting DC. > There is a structural problem that won't be solved by investigations. > > The fifth estate does not act under a feedback loop. While your grocery is > on the tightest leash possible (daily easy exit by individual informed > customers), your senator is under a much weaker and distorted feedback loop > (occasional votes), the deep government is essentially under nobody's > control. You can't threaten them physically (strongest feedback known), > refuse them your cooperation/money (second strongest loop), you can't run > away, all you can is to use your 1/100 000 000 voice to influencing > somebody else (the 0.01% of the government that you can contribute to > electing) and hope that 0.01% you have under a weak feedback loop would > control the remaining 99.99%. > > It's a pipe dream. > > The only solution is term limits for every single government employee, > from the janitors up. Ten years and you are out. No exceptions, not for > rank and file penpushers, not for middle management, not for scientists, > not for generals, not for anyone. That's the only long-term way to prevent > the accumulation of hypocritical, status-obsessed scum in the corridors of > power. They say "Power corrupts"? Well, let's protect innocent people from > corruption by making sure they don't have power long enough to soil their > precious little souls. > > And while we are at it, let's take away their civil rights while employed > there - no right to vote during and for 10 years after leaving government > employment (same for anybody receiving welfare, of course). > > And let's have an IQ test as a civil service entrance exam. > > Of course, this won't happen. Some problems, seemingly under human > control, actually don't have solutions. > > Rafal > ?Talk about pipe dreams! Some of what you suggest takes a Constitutional amendment - nearly impossible. Slightly less improbably: try to get a new congressman to vow to limit his terms, say two for a Senator and five for a Representative. It's got to start somewhere. I have no idea what it would take to change Civil Service rules. Anybody? bill w? > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Thu Jul 17 20:13:21 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 15:13:21 -0500 Subject: [ExI] puzzle In-Reply-To: References: <53C79912.8020007@libero.it> Message-ID: On Thu, Jul 17, 2014 at 1:23 PM, Adrian Tymes wrote: > If the halfway "mark" is as tall as the glass is, any amount of filling > from 0% to 100% would be "to" this mark. > > Alternately, if it's a really short glass (more like a petri dish), the > meniscus curve of whatever fluid it is filled with might make a given fill > amount cover both 50% of the way from the bottom and 100%. > > On Jul 17, 2014 3:58 AM, "Mike Dougherty" wrote: > > If a job is done poorly it is referred to as "half-assed." If the job > is done well, should it be called "full-assed" or "no-assed"? > > Full, if I understand the etymology correctly. (In short: the amount of > work a donkey - or "ass" - does.) > ?Is a person who does a half-assed job a victim of a disasster? bill w? > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Thu Jul 17 20:15:17 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 15:15:17 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Radiation danger (was: sendup of Hobby Lobby) In-Reply-To: References: <054d01cfa10e$1af52040$50df60c0$@att.net> Message-ID: >> Another angle: it seems like placebo effect would work both directions. >> Perhaps positive placebo effect works on optimistic people and the negative >> works on pessimistic people. I know plenty of pessimists who seem to >> somehow will themselves into sickness. I think I know more pessimists than >> optimists. Perhaps I am comparing them to myself, the well-known >> super-optimist. >> > ?Psychological research shows that people who are depressed and thus > pessimistic are the most in contact with reality. True. Ergo you > are....... > > bill w? > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Fri Jul 18 00:37:19 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 02:37:19 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1189533219-26260@secure.ericade.net> BillK??, 16/7/2014 6:47 PM: I don't think anybody has mentioned that Nick Bostrom's new book is? now available at Amazon UK. Yup. Curious to hear your comments.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Fri Jul 18 08:07:58 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 04:07:58 -0400 Subject: [ExI] sendup of Hobby Lobby In-Reply-To: References: <012c01cf9f7e$64dacbb0$2e906310$@att.net> <014501cfa043$dc3aae80$94b00b80$@att.net> <01b601cfa055$a442cfa0$ecc86ee0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Thu, Jul 17, 2014 at 4:10 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > > ?Talk about pipe dreams! Some of what you suggest takes a Constitutional > amendment - nearly impossible. Slightly less improbably: try to get a new > congressman to vow to limit his terms, say two for a Senator and five for a > Representative. It's got to start somewhere. > ### Term limits for the elected is a bad place to start. Term-limited congressmen would not be any more responsive to the electorate but they would be weakened when it comes to confronting the un-elected bureaucrats. Remember, your real enemy is not the pro-life Republican congressman or the Democrat who skims 300 million dollars but rather the faceless cubicle drone who actually writes the laws that burn trillions of dollars. --------------- > > I have no idea what it would take to change Civil Service rules. Anybody? > ### A simple act of Congress. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From outlawpoet at gmail.com Fri Jul 18 14:25:04 2014 From: outlawpoet at gmail.com (justin corwin) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 07:25:04 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Not that they don't have problems, but this is a little misleading. While numbers of books in Modern Standard Arabic is quite low, some complicating factors are low literacy in Arabic due to school policies that privilege fluency in "foreign" languages, Algeria for example is a huge consumer of French books because educational policies under French rule meant that far more can read it comfortably, despite the "official language" being Arabic. Much official business in the government is even still done in French writing, despite it having no official status. Similarly this ignores Arabic-descended languages in other Muslim countries like Persian and Turkish, both of which rank quite highly in terms of published works per year. On Thu, Jul 17, 2014 at 7:50 AM, John Clark wrote: > On Jul 17, 2014, at 6:12 AM, Mirco Romanato wrote: > > > Why Don?t Arabs Read? >> > > One reason may be that the number of books translated into Arabic since > the death of Caliph Al-Ma?moun in 833 AD is less than the number of books > translated into Spanish just last year. If you believe that all the world's > wisdom can be found in just one book why read any other? > > John K Clark > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -- Justin Corwin outlawpoet at gmail.com http://programmaticconquest.tumblr.com http://outlawpoet.tumblr.com -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Fri Jul 18 17:25:26 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 13:25:26 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Fri, Jul 18, 2014 at 10:25 AM, justin corwin wrote: > Not that they don't have problems, but this is a little misleading. While > numbers of books in Modern Standard Arabic is quite low, some complicating > factors are low literacy in Arabic due to school policies that privilege > fluency in "foreign" languages, > There may be a number of reasons for it but it doesn't change the fact that if you're interested in the pursuit of knowledge there has been no reason to bother to learn Arabic for centuries unless your area of interest is Arab culture itself. There was a brief moment in time when Arabic was the worldwide language of higher learning, but that ended about 800 years ago. > Similarly this ignores Arabic-descended languages in other Muslim > countries like Persian and Turkish > No, Persian and Turkish are unrelated to Arabic. Persian is a Indo-European language as are are the languages of India (except for the southern third) and Latin and Greek and all of the languages of Europe except for Hungarian Finnish Basque and Estonian. Arabic is not a Indo-European language, it is a Semitic language and is closely related to Hebrew. Turkish is not Indo-European or Semitic, it is a member of the Oghuz language group. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Fri Jul 18 18:23:38 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 11:23:38 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <00ad01cfa2b5$65fb44e0$31f1cea0$@att.net> >? On Behalf Of John Clark Subject: Re: [ExI] Arabs don't read On Fri, Jul 18, 2014 at 10:25 AM, justin corwin wrote: >> ? While numbers of books in Modern Standard Arabic is quite low, some complicating factors are low literacy in Arabic due to school policies that privilege fluency in "foreign" languages, >?There may be a number of reasons for it but it doesn't change the fact that if you're interested in the pursuit of knowledge there has been no reason to bother to learn Arabic for centuries unless your area of interest is Arab culture itself. ? John K Clark Arthur C. Clarke and others wrote about leapfrog technologies. His example was the many failed attempts to install phone systems in Africa. The locals would steal the wires for the copper. Eventually a radio-based alternative came along, allowing them to leapfrog the unworkable solution which required copper wire and the related infrastructure. English is tied to perhaps the greatest leapfrog technology ever, the internet. If the less literate parts of the world were to try to catch up, they would need all the costly infrastructure of libraries, books, schools, all the rest of it. But now all the free stuff shows up, and it isn?t costly: get the students internet connections and powerbooks. That leapfrogs most of the costly infrastructure needs. Khan Academy is a perfect example of a wonderful learning opportunity, and all of it is free. If the less literate parts of the world just standardize on Khan Academy and plenty of the other educational free stuff on the web, the blast right up from the rear into contention with the rest of the world, but they have some advantages: they are less distracted than their overfed overindulged advanced-world counterparts. They take education seriously because they know hunger and poverty, and realize it is their ticket to a better life. Most of the content on the internet is in English. I don?t know the numbers but my guess is there is more English content there than every other language combined. Anyone know? This leads to understanding of why companies prefer to hire someone from Latvia or Estonia to a similarly qualified American: the Eastern Europeans have better English skills, having learned from Sal Khan rather than on the playground. English became the de facto world language because of the timely appearance of the internet, which tied it to perhaps the most critically important leapfrog technology of our times. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Fri Jul 18 18:44:39 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 11:44:39 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: <00ad01cfa2b5$65fb44e0$31f1cea0$@att.net> References: <00ad01cfa2b5$65fb44e0$31f1cea0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Jul 18, 2014 11:24 AM, "spike" wrote: > English became the de facto world language because of the timely appearance of the internet, which tied it to perhaps the most critically important leapfrog technology of our times. English was arguably already the de facto world language. The Internet just cemented its position (but boy did it). -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tara at taramayastales.com Fri Jul 18 20:06:43 2014 From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 13:06:43 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: <00ad01cfa2b5$65fb44e0$31f1cea0$@att.net> References: <00ad01cfa2b5$65fb44e0$31f1cea0$@att.net> Message-ID: <0D4E48F7-42AB-405A-8F6F-38F5934BE871@taramayastales.com> On Jul 18, 2014, at 11:23 AM, spike wrote: > English is tied to perhaps the greatest leapfrog technology ever, the internet. An Indian politician claimed that by providing English lessons + free internet access to Madrassas decreased terrorism. Students who learned Arabic as a second language accessed a huge literature of hate, whereas students who learned English accessed a huge literature of tolerance. Tara Maya Blog | Twitter | Facebook | Amazon | Goodreads -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From markalanwalker at gmail.com Fri Jul 18 20:46:14 2014 From: markalanwalker at gmail.com (Mark Walker) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 14:46:14 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Assuming your premise is true, that few books are translated into Arabic, it seems that at best you can conclude that Arabs don't read in Arabic. Consider: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/11/world/middleeast/11iht-educlede11.html?_r=0 ? Dr. Mark Walker Richard L. Hedden Chair of Advanced Philosophical Studies Department of Philosophy New Mexico State University P.O. Box 30001, MSC 3B Las Cruces, NM 88003-8001 USA http://www.nmsu.edu/~philos/mark-walkers-home-page.html On Thu, Jul 17, 2014 at 8:50 AM, John Clark wrote: > On Jul 17, 2014, at 6:12 AM, Mirco Romanato wrote: > > > Why Don?t Arabs Read? >> > > One reason may be that the number of books translated into Arabic since > the death of Caliph Al-Ma?moun in 833 AD is less than the number of books > translated into Spanish just last year. If you believe that all the world's > wisdom can be found in just one book why read any other? > > John K Clark > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Fri Jul 18 20:54:32 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 13:54:32 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: <0D4E48F7-42AB-405A-8F6F-38F5934BE871@taramayastales.com> References: <00ad01cfa2b5$65fb44e0$31f1cea0$@att.net> <0D4E48F7-42AB-405A-8F6F-38F5934BE871@taramayastales.com> Message-ID: <014601cfa2ca$7a8e18a0$6faa49e0$@att.net> >. On Behalf Of Tara Maya Subject: Re: [ExI] Arabs don't read On Jul 18, 2014, at 11:23 AM, spike wrote: >>.English is tied to perhaps the greatest leapfrog technology ever, the internet. >.An Indian politician claimed that by providing English lessons + free internet access to Madrassas decreased terrorism. Students who learned Arabic as a second language accessed a huge literature of hate, whereas students who learned English accessed a huge literature of tolerance. Tara Maya I have listened to a number of people who have done missions for religions, especially in less developed parts of the world. In 30 or more years of listening carefully to their experiences abroad, there is one comment more common than any of the others: they often got the feeling the people really didn't give a shit about the religion they were trying to sell, but were intensely interested in learning English. Those who mastered English from the missionaries bought themselves a ticket to a better life, away somewhere, anywhere. This effect tended to brain-drain those backward places, by leaving behind the less able to master the language and those less willing to take a risk. I have known plenty of people who came out of less developed areas, but I don't know of any who returned. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Fri Jul 18 20:57:58 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 13:57:58 -0700 Subject: [ExI] FW: puzzler References: <06c201cfa137$1b322ca0$519685e0$@att.net> Message-ID: <015301cfa2ca$f4f2cc80$ded86580$@att.net> BillW sent me his puzzler before he posted it to the main list. This is what I came up with: From: William Flynn Wallace [mailto:foozler83 at gmail.com] Sent: Wednesday, July 16, 2014 12:54 PM To: spike jones Subject: puzzler You said you liked puzzles, so I created one out of an old question: Take a glass and fill it to the halfway mark. Is it half full or half empty, is the usual question. My question: in what circumstance (s) may it be regarded as full? bill w 1) The glass is to be used in an environment in which filling the glass higher would result in spillage, such as in a taxi or aboard ships 2) The glass is cracked and the crack reaches halfway down the side 3) The glass contains a fizzy substance which ejects tiny globules of liquid as does cola when you tap it into a glass, whereby the high freeboard stops the fizzy bits to an acceptable level 4) The user of the glass has shaky hands 5) The glass is sufficiently delicate that the materials limits of the glass are reached with the vessel half full 6) The glass is to be placed in a holder such that its base is tilted (perhaps for fashion or some other unknown reasons) 7) The glass is used to trap flies, which are unable to fly or climb very far up the side of a glass after sipping the beer therein (half full prevents wasting good beer.) 8) The liquid in the glass is being used as an optical filter, so it must have a determined thickness of liquid 9) The glass and liquid are being used as a specified counterweight 10) The glass and liquid are being used as a means of measuring time (by determining how long it takes for the liquid to evaporate) 11) The glass and liquid are set on a balance beam which tilts as the liquid evaporates, and triggers a fire a few days later after the perp has a chance to escape 12) The glass and liquid are being used as a means of estimating humidity 13) The glass is half filled with a solution which one wants to evaporate away to get the crystalized solute 14) The glass is shaped in a tall and narrow configuration such that half filling it lowers its CG and reduces the risk of its turning over 15) The glass is to contain a very hot liquid, such that the greater freeboard above the liquid surface allows the user to handle it with bare hands 16) The glass contains a dense liquid such as trichloroethane, such that the higher freeboard contains the small amount which vaporizes and recondenses 17) The glass contains a solution of radioactive salts, such as plutonium chloride in sulfuric acid, such that any level higher than half approaches a critical mass 18) The glass is half filled with nitroglycerine (half a glass is all you need to blast this place to hell) 19) The bartender is trying to make a little more profit 20) The bar patron is a lousy tipper 21) The glass is being used as a visual aid, such as for an ad campaign 22) The glass is being used at an employment interview to separate the pessimists from the optimists by asking them if the glass is half full or half empty 23) The glass is being used to identify psychopaths who start talking about the glass being full of nitro and being sufficient to blast the joint to hell 24) The glass is being used in a sociological experiment, which never has anything to do with the question being asked, but is rather studying if the test subject will lean forward and flash boobs at the experimenter, for instance 25) The glass is being used as a visual aid to see how creative is the test subject in coming up with ways the glass is full 26) The glass is being used to make music by stroking the rim, where the liquid level determines the pitch thus created 27) The glass is being used to study how a measured amount of alcohol will encourage a test subject to offer a boob flash for instance -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tara at taramayastales.com Fri Jul 18 21:15:58 2014 From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 14:15:58 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: <014601cfa2ca$7a8e18a0$6faa49e0$@att.net> References: <00ad01cfa2b5$65fb44e0$31f1cea0$@att.net> <0D4E48F7-42AB-405A-8F6F-38F5934BE871@taramayastales.com> <014601cfa2ca$7a8e18a0$6faa49e0$@att.net> Message-ID: <3E3C461A-BE0A-49CC-9E30-999A404D78C5@taramayastales.com> On Jul 18, 2014, at 1:54 PM, spike wrote: > I have known plenty of people who came out of less developed areas, but I don?t know of any who returned. > In Cameroon, Africa, I met a man who had gone to high school and college in America. His people, by the way, the Bamenda, have the highest number of books per capita of any other Subsuharan tribe. (Though it was the Bamenda who told me this; I was not able to confirm because I couldn't find stats that broke it down that way.) I can confirm they had a lot of book stores, more than anywhere else I visited in Camaroon. That part of Cameroon was colonized by the British, so the Bamenda read in English. (Their own language is not written.) However, their love of learning and their capitalist inclinations seems to predate the colonial period. The other tribes called them "the Jews of Cameroon" because they were perceived to be "smart and rich." (The attendent resentments and envies by others against them were also present.) Anyway, this charming and educated fellow returned to his home town and opened a small restaurant, which he ran according to the principles he'd learned working as a restaurant manager in America. Sadly, the man's restaurant was not doing well. Cameroon is one of the most corrupt countries in the world, and also has a highly protectionist economy. It was hard for him to order what he needed, as it often wouldn't arrive. (There are military checkpoints about every ten to twenty minutes on the roads, even though Cameroon is not at war with anyone, and these police/soldiers demand bribes or just steal things.) Also, there was so much red tape just to run a restaurant. He wasn't able to advertise it widely outside his area. Only TV was owned by the government and only on about two hours a day. He had to pay for everything up front, not with a business loan. And on and on. He had returned to Cameroon because he wanted to bring good things there that he'd seen abroad, but admitted that he was getting discouraged and might seek to return to America or go to Europe. Tara Maya Blog | Twitter | Facebook | Amazon | Goodreads -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Fri Jul 18 21:58:01 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 14:58:01 -0700 Subject: [ExI] possible scheme for privacy Message-ID: <020101cfa2d3$58a56ff0$09f04fd0$@att.net> Hey cool, this Forbes article gave me an idea: http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/07/17/nsa-responds-to-snowden-c laim-that-intercepted-nude-pics-routinely-passed-around-by-employees/ OK so the NSA reads email. So here ya go: collect a bunch of salacious stuff, nude photos from anywhere that look like selfies, collect the kind of text that humans like to read, send it all over the place. Then when you want to send a private message, insert it into a long-winded highbrow discussion from ExI, stuff normal people generally just don't care about and couldn't stay awake trying to read it, stuff that excites geeks like us, discussions on ants, math, half full glasses and such. Then take your text, insert it into the middle of the known camouflage text. The NSA would never get past the nude selfies. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Jul 18 22:55:04 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 17:55:04 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read Message-ID: ?So Arabs don't read much. Consumed by religion ?, perhaps? . But there is hope for the MidEast: I read of a poll taken in Iran. It would seem that any such thing would be highly suspect but look at the results: A big majority, around 2/3 if my memory is still any good, ?said that religious leaders should not have a role in government. Iran, now. Theocracy. Not so much unlike us as we might think. No wonder places like this try to squash the press and the common peoples' dissent. bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Jul 18 22:59:41 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 17:59:41 -0500 Subject: [ExI] possible scheme for privacy In-Reply-To: <020101cfa2d3$58a56ff0$09f04fd0$@att.net> References: <020101cfa2d3$58a56ff0$09f04fd0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Fri, Jul 18, 2014 at 4:58 PM, spike wrote: > > > > > Hey cool, this Forbes article gave me an idea: > > > > > http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/07/17/nsa-responds-to-snowden-claim-that-intercepted-nude-pics-routinely-passed-around-by-employees/ > > > > OK so the NSA reads email. So here ya go: collect a bunch of salacious > stuff, nude photos from anywhere that look like selfies, collect the kind > of text that humans like to read, send it all over the place. Then when > you want to send a private message, insert it into a long-winded highbrow > discussion from ExI, stuff normal people generally just don?t care about > and couldn?t stay awake trying to read it, stuff that excites geeks like > us, discussions on ants, math, half full glasses and such. Then take your > text, insert it into the middle of the known camouflage text. The NSA > would never get past the nude selfies. > > > > spike > ?You are assuming that only people read email. I suspect that computers are scanning every word for suspect terms related to armament etc. I did know of a professor who was known to read only the first couple of pages and the last one of a long essay, so students filled the middle with all sorts of irrelevant stuff they did not write themselves. bill w bill w? > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Fri Jul 18 23:58:17 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 16:58:17 -0700 Subject: [ExI] weird al's new album Message-ID: <000001cfa2e4$25d5de50$71819af0$@att.net> Weird Al Yankovic has released a new album, Mandatory Fun. Life is good! This is a screen grab from one of his older works, White & Nerdy. I had seen this one before and love it, but I noticed something new this time: on the screen in the background Yankovic took the time and effort to write out Schroedinger's wave equation with expanded Hamiltonian operator, and did it right. His attention to detail was such that he wrote it out correctly instead of just writing some garbage. The man is brilliant. Excellent! spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.jpg Type: application/octet-stream Size: 22853 bytes Desc: not available URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Jul 19 00:34:05 2014 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 17:34:05 -0700 Subject: [ExI] weird al's new album In-Reply-To: <000001cfa2e4$25d5de50$71819af0$@att.net> References: <000001cfa2e4$25d5de50$71819af0$@att.net> Message-ID: When the lead singer of Devo worked with Al on a project, he later stated that he had never seen someone so perceptive about music, and one step ahead of everyone else. >From Wikipedia: "Yankovic began kindergarten a year earlier than most children, and he skipped the second grade. "My classmates seemed to think I was some kind of rocket scientist so I was labeled a nerd early on", he recalls.[9] As his unusual schooling left him two years younger than most of his classmates, Yankovic was not interested in sports or social events at school. He was valedictorian of his senior class.[9] Yankovic was active in his school's extracurricular programs, including the National Forensic League , a play based upon *Rebel Without a Cause *, the yearbook (for which he wrote most of the captions), and the Volcano Worshippers club, "which did absolutely nothing. We started the club just to get an extra picture of ourselves in the yearbook."[9] Yankovic attended California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo where he earned a degree in architecture.[8] " "Yankovic married Suzanne Krajewski in 2001; their daughter, Nina, was born in 2003.[38] They also have a pet cockatiel named Bo Veaner[7] and dog named Bambu. They used to have a pet poodle , named Bela (pictured atop Yankovic's head on the cover of his album, *Poodle Hat *). Yankovic identifies as Christian and has stated that a couple from his church appeared on the cover of *Poodle Hat*.[39] [40] Yankovic changed his diet to become a vegan in 1992, after a former girlfriend gave him the book *Diet for a New America * and he felt "it made [...] a very compelling argument for a strict vegetarian diet."[41] When asked how he can "rationalize" performing at events such as the *Great American Rib Cook-Off* when he is a vegan, he replied, "The same way I can rationalize playing at a college even though I?m not a student anymore."[42] On April 9, 2004, Yankovic's parents were found dead in their Fallbrook, California , home, apparently the victims of accidental carbon monoxide poisoning from their fireplace that had been recently lit. The flue was closed, which trapped the carbon monoxide gas inside the house, suffocating them.[38] Several hours after his wife notified him of his parents' death, Yankovic went on with his concert in Mankato, Minnesota ,[43] [44] saying that "since my music had helped many of my fans through tough times, maybe it would work for me as well" and that it would "at least ... give me a break from sobbing all the time." Although Yankovic played the concert as planned, a scheduled meet and greet following the concert was canceled.[45] [46] " John On Fri, Jul 18, 2014 at 4:58 PM, spike wrote: > > > Weird Al Yankovic has released a new album, Mandatory Fun. Life is good! > > > > This is a screen grab from one of his older works, White & Nerdy. I had > seen this one before and love it, but I noticed something new this time: on > the screen in the background Yankovic took the time and effort to write out > Schroedinger?s wave equation with expanded Hamiltonian operator, and did it > right. His attention to detail was such that he wrote it out correctly > instead of just writing some garbage. > > > > The man is brilliant. > > > > > > Excellent! > > > > spike > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.jpg Type: application/octet-stream Size: 22853 bytes Desc: not available URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Jul 19 12:44:18 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2014 14:44:18 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> Il 17/07/2014 16:50, John Clark ha scritto: > On Jul 17, 2014, at 6:12 AM, Mirco Romanato wrote: > > > Why Don?t Arabs Read? > > > One reason may be that the number of books translated into Arabic since > the death of Caliph Al-Ma?moun in 833 AD is less than the number of > books translated into Spanish just last year. If you believe that all > the world's wisdom can be found in just one book why read any other? Why read it and understand it, when you can just memorize it? As the reason you exist is just to recite it. Mirco From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Jul 19 13:20:23 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2014 15:20:23 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <53CA7097.6050905@libero.it> Il 18/07/2014 22:46, Mark Walker ha scritto: > Assuming your premise is true, that few books are translated into > Arabic, it seems that at best you can conclude that Arabs don't read in > Arabic. Consider: > http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/11/world/middleeast/11iht-educlede11.html?_r=0 Arabic has a big problem: it doesn't really exist. From what I read, the Arabic language talk in Algeria is very different and practically not understandable from a Iraqi or Yemeni. Arab press write in some for of "classic" Arabic language shared by the elites. But I remember a blog from Iraq (during invasion and occupation) where a girl lamented how difficult were her Arabic lessons and exams. And surely she was a smart girl from a wealthy and learned family (and the English was perfect). I had read people comparing the "classical" Arabic with Latin. Not long ago the large majority of the western world elites could understand each other talking in Latin and scientific works were written in Latin. Mirco From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Jul 19 14:23:01 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2014 16:23:01 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Must money be a state monopoly? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <53CA7F45.1050308@libero.it> My money its me!!! http://dangerousthings.com/shop/xnt-ntag216-2x12mm-glass-tag So I just bought a sub-dermal, NFC Bitcoin wallet implant. With Bitcoin. http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2b2ni7/so_i_just_bought_a_subdermal_nfc_bitcoin_wallet/ Mirco From mail at harveynewstrom.com Sat Jul 19 17:45:32 2014 From: mail at harveynewstrom.com (Harvey Newstrom) Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2014 13:45:32 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> Message-ID: <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> On Saturday, July 19, 2014 8:44 AM, Mirco Romanato wrote, > > Arabic > Why read it and understand it, when you can just memorize it? > As the reason you exist is just to recite it. I think you are conflating the Arabic language with the Quran and therefore with radical Islamisists who don't read external opinions. This is like conflating King James English with the King James Bible and therefore with radical Christian fundamentalists who hate science. -- Harvey Newstrom www.HarveyNewstrom.com From puglisi at arcetri.astro.it Sat Jul 19 19:05:41 2014 From: puglisi at arcetri.astro.it (Alfio Puglisi) Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2014 21:05:41 +0200 Subject: [ExI] How will air travel work in a green solar economy? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Wed, Jul 16, 2014 at 7:46 PM, Tomaz Kristan wrote: > Over my small (Central European) country, there are about 10 large > passenger planes every moment. Their combined power is roughly equal to all > the hydroelectric, coal and nuclear power beneath them - combined. > > I am not sure is this pathetic or glorious fact. I guess both. > I think this discussion has been overly pessimistic. Maybe Tomaz you live under the air corridor originating from some major European hub. But as you scale things up, the picture is not that bad. For example, Italy's usual daytime electric power is about 50 GW. Using the numbers in this thread for 747s, it would sustain 150 of them flying 24h/day, which for sure you will not find in its sky. Actually this agrees with the airlines protests about greenhouse gases reduction efforts: they often state that the airline sector only contributes for 2% of the total CO2 generation. Since electric power is about a third of the global energy CO2 emission, the power output should be similarly bigger. Or even more, if you consider that a good fraction of electric power is generated with hydro and nuclear. It is reasonable to conclude that air travel could be powered easily (for optimistic values of "easy": you still need a suitable fuel which can be produced with reasonable efficiency). Alfio > > > > On Wed, Jul 16, 2014 at 5:58 AM, Keith Henson > wrote: > >> On Tue, Jul 15, 2014 at 3:37 PM, "Robert G Kennedy III, PE" >> wrote: >> >> snip >> > >> > Yes, hundreds of Mt. Other than a first prototype article, we're not >> > thinking of boosting any of it off Earth. Too dang expensive. For a >> > project of this scale, it's off-world materials or nothing. >> >> I suggest that even the prototype might be built of asteroid materials. >> >> Though if sunshades come after power satellites, the transport cost >> can't be very high. >> >> > Now, I will concede that 2/3 of that mass in space is driven by the >> > power generation function we're piggybacking on the sunshade function. >> >> If you are mainly after energy, and building up space industry so it >> could build sunshades, it might be better to populate GEO with power >> satellites first. If we eventually tap L1 for energy, the GEO power >> sats could be converted to relay stations. If we were pouring energy >> captured at L1 into the earth system, sunshades might be required to >> keep the energy gain down. >> >> Keith >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > > > > -- > https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/ > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sat Jul 19 19:21:33 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2014 15:21:33 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Jul 19, 2014 at 1:45 PM, Harvey Newstrom wrote: > I think you are conflating the Arabic language with the Quran and > therefore with radical Islamisists who don't read external opinions. > This is like conflating King James English with the King James Bible and > therefore with radical Christian fundamentalists who hate science. > Written English has changed radically in the 400 years since the King James Bible was new, but even though it's more than twice as old written Arabic has changed very little since the Quran was written. Spoken Arabic has changed in some localities but not written. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lubkin at unreasonable.com Sat Jul 19 23:27:54 2014 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2014 19:27:54 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Tunnels Message-ID: <201407200035.s6K0ZD1r001562@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Israel and the United States have an interest in preventing tunnels in. Prisons and prison nations, like North Korea or the old East Germany, have an interest in preventing tunnels out. Are there any credible technologies, either current or plausible future, that can stymie tunneling by wealthy, motivated opposition along ranges from (say) 10^2 to 10^6 meters ?at least by anything less than a hypothetical shaped nuclear charge, MNT disassemblers, or the sort of large, expensive tunnel boring machine that is hard to obtain or conceal? (Such a barrier appears in sf but I've never seen one described to the level of credibility.) -- David. From angelarturo911216.1991 at gmail.com Sun Jul 20 01:36:32 2014 From: angelarturo911216.1991 at gmail.com (=?UTF-8?Q?Angel_Arturo_Ramirez_Su=C3=A1rez?=) Date: Sat, 19 Jul 2014 20:36:32 -0500 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 130, Issue 21 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Re: possible scheme for privacy (William Flynn Wallace) Hello new here, actually the privacy concerns have been adressed. The hacker community is working on a project called Meshnet which aims to create a new internet from the ground using a protocol called CJDNS. On this protocol there're no ISP's and every member is a node that shares information, the data is encrypted on each node so that it achieves max privacy and makes impossible to read the information or get data on the sender. It doesn't provide anonimity though. Currently they're on the alpha stage and the alternate internet is to be known as Hyperboria. Due to their level one can only connect through invitation but they plan to open it once the framework becomes fully functional. https://projectmeshnet.org/ Just my 2 cents! On Sat, Jul 19, 2014 at 7:00 AM, wrote: > Send extropy-chat mailing list submissions to > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > > To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > or, via email, send a message with subject or body 'help' to > extropy-chat-request at lists.extropy.org > > You can reach the person managing the list at > extropy-chat-owner at lists.extropy.org > > When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific > than "Re: Contents of extropy-chat digest..." > > > Today's Topics: > > 1. Re: possible scheme for privacy (William Flynn Wallace) > 2. weird al's new album (spike) > 3. Re: weird al's new album (John Grigg) > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Message: 1 > Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 17:59:41 -0500 > From: William Flynn Wallace > To: ExI chat list > Subject: Re: [ExI] possible scheme for privacy > Message-ID: > kbtKNJNoF+4J20BQraw at mail.gmail.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" > > On Fri, Jul 18, 2014 at 4:58 PM, spike wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > Hey cool, this Forbes article gave me an idea: > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/07/17/nsa-responds-to-snowden-claim-that-intercepted-nude-pics-routinely-passed-around-by-employees/ > > > > > > > > OK so the NSA reads email. So here ya go: collect a bunch of salacious > > stuff, nude photos from anywhere that look like selfies, collect the kind > > of text that humans like to read, send it all over the place. Then when > > you want to send a private message, insert it into a long-winded highbrow > > discussion from ExI, stuff normal people generally just don?t care about > > and couldn?t stay awake trying to read it, stuff that excites geeks like > > us, discussions on ants, math, half full glasses and such. Then take > your > > text, insert it into the middle of the known camouflage text. The NSA > > would never get past the nude selfies. > > > > > > > > spike > > > > ?You are assuming that only people read email. I suspect that computers > are scanning every word for suspect terms related to armament etc. > > I did know of a professor who was known to read only the first couple of > pages and the last one of a long essay, so students filled the middle with > all sorts of irrelevant stuff they did not write themselves. bill w > > bill w? > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > > extropy-chat mailing list > > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > > > > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: < > http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20140718/f5cd6ebd/attachment-0001.html > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 2 > Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 16:58:17 -0700 > From: "spike" > To: "'ExI chat list'" > Subject: [ExI] weird al's new album > Message-ID: <000001cfa2e4$25d5de50$71819af0$@att.net> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > > > Weird Al Yankovic has released a new album, Mandatory Fun. Life is good! > > > > This is a screen grab from one of his older works, White & Nerdy. I had > seen this one before and love it, but I noticed something new this time: on > the screen in the background Yankovic took the time and effort to write out > Schroedinger's wave equation with expanded Hamiltonian operator, and did it > right. His attention to detail was such that he wrote it out correctly > instead of just writing some garbage. > > > > The man is brilliant. > > > > > > > > Excellent! > > > > spike > > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: < > http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20140718/4af568c5/attachment-0001.html > > > -------------- next part -------------- > A non-text attachment was scrubbed... > Name: image002.jpg > Type: application/octet-stream > Size: 22853 bytes > Desc: not available > URL: < > http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20140718/4af568c5/attachment-0001.obj > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 3 > Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 17:34:05 -0700 > From: John Grigg > To: ExI chat list > Subject: Re: [ExI] weird al's new album > Message-ID: > tY5Fs18dzvufF4yRPGULrcX8VtA at mail.gmail.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" > > When the lead singer of Devo worked with Al on a project, he later stated > that he had never seen someone so perceptive about music, and one step > ahead of everyone else. > > > >From Wikipedia: > > "Yankovic began kindergarten a year earlier than most children, and he > skipped the second grade. "My classmates seemed to think I was some kind of > rocket scientist so I was labeled a nerd early on", he recalls.[9] > > As > his unusual schooling left him two years younger than most of his > classmates, Yankovic was not interested in sports or social events at > school. He was valedictorian > of > his senior class.[9] > > Yankovic > was active in his school's extracurricular programs, including the National > Forensic League , a > play based upon *Rebel Without a Cause > *, the yearbook (for > which he wrote most of the captions), and the Volcano Worshippers club, > "which did absolutely nothing. We started the club just to get an extra > picture of ourselves in the yearbook."[9] > > > Yankovic attended California Polytechnic State University > in > San > Luis Obispo > where > he earned a degree in architecture.[8] > " > > > "Yankovic married Suzanne Krajewski in 2001; their daughter, Nina, was born > in 2003.[38] > > They > also have a pet cockatiel named > Bo > Veaner[7] > and > dog named Bambu. They used to have a pet poodle > , named Bela (pictured atop > Yankovic's > head on the cover of his album, *Poodle Hat > *). Yankovic identifies as > Christian and has stated that a couple from his church appeared on the > cover of *Poodle Hat*.[39] > [40] > > > Yankovic changed his diet to become a vegan > in 1992, after a former girlfriend > gave him the book *Diet for a New America > * and he felt "it > made > [...] a very compelling argument for a strict vegetarian diet."[41] > When > asked how he can "rationalize" performing at events such as the *Great > American Rib Cook-Off* when he is a vegan, he replied, "The same way I can > rationalize playing at a college even though I?m not a student > anymore."[42] > > > On April 9, 2004, Yankovic's parents were found dead in their Fallbrook, > California , home, > apparently the victims of accidental carbon monoxide poisoning > from their > fireplace that had been recently lit. The flue > was closed, which trapped the carbon > monoxide gas inside the house, suffocating them.[38] > > Several > hours after his wife notified him of his parents' death, Yankovic went on > with his concert in Mankato, Minnesota > ,[43] > [44] > saying > that "since my music had helped many of my fans through tough times, maybe > it would work for me as well" and that it would "at least ... give me a > break from sobbing all the time." Although Yankovic played the concert as > planned, a scheduled meet and greet following the concert was canceled.[45] > [46] > " > > > John > > > On Fri, Jul 18, 2014 at 4:58 PM, spike wrote: > > > > > > > Weird Al Yankovic has released a new album, Mandatory Fun. Life is good! > > > > > > > > This is a screen grab from one of his older works, White & Nerdy. I had > > seen this one before and love it, but I noticed something new this time: > on > > the screen in the background Yankovic took the time and effort to write > out > > Schroedinger?s wave equation with expanded Hamiltonian operator, and did > it > > right. His attention to detail was such that he wrote it out correctly > > instead of just writing some garbage. > > > > > > > > The man is brilliant. > > > > > > > > > > > > Excellent! > > > > > > > > spike > > > > _______________________________________________ > > extropy-chat mailing list > > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > > > > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: < > http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20140718/29562a5f/attachment-0001.html > > > -------------- next part -------------- > A non-text attachment was scrubbed... > Name: image002.jpg > Type: application/octet-stream > Size: 22853 bytes > Desc: not available > URL: < > http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20140718/29562a5f/attachment-0001.obj > > > > ------------------------------ > > Subject: Digest Footer > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > > ------------------------------ > > End of extropy-chat Digest, Vol 130, Issue 21 > ********************************************* > -- ---------------------------------- *"Nuestras aspiraciones son nuestras posibilidades" - Robert Browning* -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Sun Jul 20 11:35:18 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 07:35:18 -0400 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 130, Issue 21 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Jul 19, 2014 at 9:36 PM, Angel Arturo Ramirez Su?rez < angelarturo911216.1991 at gmail.com> wrote: > Re: possible scheme for privacy (William Flynn Wallace) > > Hello new here, actually the privacy concerns have been adressed. The > hacker community is working on a project called Meshnet which aims to > create a new internet from the ground using a protocol called CJDNS. On > this protocol there're no ISP's and every member is a node that shares > information, the data is encrypted on each node so that it achieves max > privacy and makes impossible to read the information or get data on the > sender. It doesn't provide anonimity though. > ### Interesting. How secure is it going to be against hardware backdoors? Will it need specialized hardware? Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Jul 20 14:03:17 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 09:03:17 -0500 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy Message-ID: The Germans and the Japanese found out that you could not decode a language - namely Navaho. So why try to encrypt net traffic so that people can't read it? Any code can be broken by supercomputers, right? Then why not create a language and use that? I know there's probably a very simple answer to this, but this nontechie doesn't know it. Please forgive if this is a 'duh' question. bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Sun Jul 20 15:14:16 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 16:14:16 +0100 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 3:03 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > The Germans and the Japanese found out that you could not decode a language > - namely Navaho. > > So why try to encrypt net traffic so that people can't read it? Any code > can be broken by supercomputers, right? > > Then why not create a language and use that? I know there's probably a very > simple answer to this, but this nontechie doesn't know it. Please forgive > if this is a 'duh' question. > There were only very primitive code computers in WW2. A supercomputer can decode a language easier than modern encrypted messages. The other WW2 advantage was that the codetalkers were 'talkers'. It wasn't a written language. Use was very restricted in the Europe WW2 because the Allies knew that the Germans were trying to learn Navaho. See: BillK From mail at harveynewstrom.com Sun Jul 20 15:52:55 2014 From: mail at harveynewstrom.com (Harvey Newstrom) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 11:52:55 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> On Saturday, July 19, 2014 3:22 PM, John Clark wrote, > On Sat, Jul 19, 2014 at 1:45 PM, Harvey Newstrom > Written English has changed radically in the 400 years since the King James > Bible was new, but even though it's more than twice as old written Arabic has > changed very little since the Quran was written I think you misunderstood my point. I was not discussing how much or little the language had changed. I was pointing out the weak chain of assumptions that: - most Arab readers are Muslim - most Muslims follow the Quran - most Quran readers are extreme fundamentalists - most extreme fundamentalists don't like books, - therefore most Arabs don't read due to religious beliefs. So my point was that this would be as spurious as saying: - most English readers are Christian - most Christians follow the Bible - most Bible readers are extreme fundamentalists - most extreme fundamentalists hate science - therefore most English readers hate science due to religious beliefs. -- Harvey Newstrom www.HarveyNewstrom.com From pharos at gmail.com Sun Jul 20 15:53:46 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 16:53:46 +0100 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 3:03 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > So why try to encrypt net traffic so that people can't read it? Any code > can be broken by supercomputers, right? > > By coincidence, an article by Thomas Frey has just appeared - "When Everyone Becomes Blackmailable" Quote: Recent revelations about the NSA PRISM program make this kind of paranoia even more justifiable. Virtually any person, put under a microscope, can be threatened with his or her own character flaws. But an even greater danger comes from knowing personal weaknesses, and in most cases, it's the person or thing we care about most. People seeking leverage always want to know the one button they can push, and whether it's a child, parent, valuable possession, or their reputation, one well-crafted threat can be instant blackmail. In much the same way Google's personalized marketing system delivers targeted ads, an intimidation engine will be capable of delivering highly targeted threats. --------- It will be a different society when privacy disappears, BillK From mail at harveynewstrom.com Sun Jul 20 15:56:00 2014 From: mail at harveynewstrom.com (Harvey Newstrom) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 11:56:00 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: <001c01cfa433$1a4e2510$4eea6f30$@harveynewstrom.com> On Saturday, July 19, 2014 3:22 PM, John Clark wrote, > but even though it's more than twice as old written Arabic has changed > very little since the Quran was written Apparently, according to Wikipedia, this claim is only made for political and religious purposes. Literary scholars actually consider the Classical Arabic (of the Quran) and the Modern Standard Arabic (MSA) to be two separate languages. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabic_language#Arabic_and_Islam) - The alphabet is radically different. The original alphabet changed and evolved from Nabatean, lacked modern consonants for /t/d/h/g/z/, had a dot-consonant system that was not standardized until the 8th century, did not have standardized vowels until the 7th century. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabic_language#History) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Arabic_alphabet#Pre-Islamic_Arabic_inscriptions) - The grammar, cases, word endings and word order are radically different. Arabic words used to have different forms for different cases, but now a single form is used. Word order was not as important with cases, but now a different word order shows different meanings. The old and new Arabic had different grammar structures and language constructions such that they would be considered different languages by literary scholars and are only considered the same language due to political and religious reasons. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabic_language#Classical.2C_Modern_Standard_and_spoken_Arabic) So it appears that when a modern Arabic non-Muslim reader encounters the original (nontranslated) text of the Quran, they are faced with a different alphabet, different word order, different forms of words, different grammar rules, different cases (and maybe tenses), to the point that they would conclude it is a separate (but apparently related) language. -- Harvey Newstrom www.HarveyNewstrom.com From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Jul 20 15:57:29 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 11:57:29 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Tunnels In-Reply-To: <201407200035.s6K0ZD1r001562@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201407200035.s6K0ZD1r001562@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Jul 19, 2014 David Lubkin wrote: > Are there any credible technologies, either current or plausible future, > that can stymie tunneling To stop the tunneling you just need to detect it, and you can do that with a gravity detector if it's sensitive enough. Einstein's General Theory of Relativity says that time moves more slowly in a strong gravity field than in a weaker one, and the gravity is weaker if there is a tunnel under your feet because there is less mass there. So to find tunnels and other interesting things in the earth you just need a good clock. If you set a atomic fountain clock 3.1 billion years ago today it would be off by less than a second; it works by measuring the microwaves given off by cesium atoms. If you move such a clock upward by one foot it's in a weaker gravitational field because it's one foot more distant from the earths center, you can detect that weakening by noting that the clock is running measurably faster. Such a clock could also function as a super accurate accelerometer allowing a submarine to know exactly where it was without surfacing to take a GPS reading. In a decade clocks should be at least 100 times as accurate by switching from microwave frequencies to optical ones or by using entirely new techniques such as cold atom interferometry. Such clocks contain no moving parts and so may be ripe for miniaturization, perhaps a good idea for a start up company. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Sun Jul 20 16:22:23 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 17:22:23 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Tunnels In-Reply-To: <201407200035.s6K0ZD1r001562@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201407200035.s6K0ZD1r001562@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 12:27 AM, David Lubkin wrote: > Are there any credible technologies, either current or plausible future, > that can stymie tunneling by wealthy, motivated opposition along ranges from > (say) 10^2 to 10^6 meters --at least by anything less than a hypothetical > shaped nuclear charge, MNT disassemblers, or the sort of large, expensive > tunnel boring machine that is hard to obtain or conceal? > > Ground penetrating radar as used by archaeologists? Can detect voids up to 15 metres below the surface, depending on the soil structure. Back in medieval times and WWI, listening devices were used to detect the sounds of tunnelling. BillK From msd001 at gmail.com Sun Jul 20 16:25:33 2014 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 12:25:33 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Tunnels In-Reply-To: <201407200035.s6K0ZD1r001562@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201407200035.s6K0ZD1r001562@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: On Jul 19, 2014 8:36 PM, "David Lubkin" wrote: > > Israel and the United States have an interest in preventing tunnels in. Prisons and prison nations, like North Korea or the old East Germany, have an interest in preventing tunnels out. I saw a mythbusters episode showing an ancient chinese tunnel defense system that involved a deep well and drum that essentially acted as an amplifier for the scratching sounds of a digger. They were able to detect would-be tunnellers with surprising accuracy. However, that was protecting a castle, not a country border. For that, the chinese built a wall that was pretty great. :p -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Jul 20 16:36:03 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 11:36:03 -0500 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Wouldn't the computer need an 'in'? Just how would it know what any word means without knowing what is a verb, a noun, the usual word order of the language, etc.? I can't see a computer decoding 'slithy tove', as it has no meaning outside the poem - and not in it either. We'd have to as the Rev. Dodgson. bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lubkin at unreasonable.com Sun Jul 20 16:47:32 2014 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 12:47:32 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Tunnels In-Reply-To: References: <201407200035.s6K0ZD1r001562@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <201407201647.s6KGljxI005755@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Interesting. Replies so far have all dealt with detecting the tunneling. I suppose with the notion that if you can detect it, you can blow it up, fill it with lethal gas or liquid, etc. No ideas on how to prevent the tunneling in the first place? Every tech I've thought of has a counter. -- David. From mail at harveynewstrom.com Sun Jul 20 16:52:37 2014 From: mail at harveynewstrom.com (Harvey Newstrom) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 12:52:37 -0400 Subject: [ExI] possible scheme for privacy Message-ID: <002701cfa43b$03609240$0a21b6c0$@harveynewstrom.com> On Saturday, July 19, 2014 9:37 PM, Angel Arturo Ramirez Su?rez wrote, > Hello new here, actually the privacy concerns have been addressed. The > hacker community is working on a project called Meshnet which aims to > create a new internet from the ground using a protocol called CJDNS. Welcome! It is always enjoyable to see new faces discussing complicated technology. I tend to go through long periods of inactivity on lists such as these. But seeing new faces and hearing new discussions always rekindles my interest. Meshnet is a very good effort, but still has some ongoing security issues that need to be addressed. The FAQ says the protocol used by Meshnet "is not anonymous, nor is it intended to be." (https://wiki.projectmeshnet.org/FAQ#Is_Cjdns_anonymous.3F) There are also many other problems documented with the Meshnet protocol. The white-paper says, "Not every problem listed has an existing solution and of the ones which do, many of the solutions are based on incompatible technology." (https://github.com/cjdelisle/cjdns/blob/master/doc/Whitepaper.md#user-content-so-the-problems-are-already-solved ) So this solution is not complete yet. But it is definitely good work and headed in the right direction! Much like TOR and BitCoin, it suffers from the same flaws of any distributed or reputation-based system. A large highly-funded far-reaching entity (such as a government agency) can create a lot of fake anonymous entities in this system to track users, out-vote reputations, and generally control the whole system. Although this is the exact right approach, which I support, encryption will never "solve" the problem. It is more like an arms-race which merely delays the other side. In TOR, a far-reaching entity can monitor a very large number of ISPs and exit nodes to match traffic patterns between the sender (real IP and encrypted message) and the TOR exit node (fake IP and unencrypted message) to link the real IP with the unencrypted message. Although TOR is generally safe, there is no way to prevent a big enough monitoring system from catching everything. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_(anonymity_network)#cite_note-torproject-fail-both-ends-32) In BitCoin, anybody can claim a bitcoin mere seconds after somebody announces it. The community of BitCoin nodes vote on whose claim they saw first. But a well-funded entity can create a large enough number of nodes in a single group or on the fastest backbones such that they can out-vote everybody and claim any BitCoin they want. (http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/184427-one-bitcoin-group-now-controls-51-of-total-mining-power-threatening-entire-currencys-safety) Also, the afore-mentioned monitoring of TOR also can be applied to BitCoin to link the real IP with the emerged BitCoin announcement. With monitoring recording most internet traffic, I predict that most of these encrypted messages will be archived, eventually cracked, and possibly published one day. So I tell my clients that encryption is not a long-term solution. It is merely a delaying tactic for now. I never put anything on the wire or in the air that I want to keep secret indefinitely. I only use encryption to hide information for a short delay. -- Harvey Newstrom www.HarveyNewstrom.com From spike66 at att.net Sun Jul 20 17:04:31 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 10:04:31 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Tunnels In-Reply-To: References: <201407200035.s6K0ZD1r001562@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <033b01cfa43c$acef2320$06cd6960$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty Sent: Sunday, July 20, 2014 9:26 AM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] Tunnels On Jul 19, 2014 8:36 PM, "David Lubkin" wrote: > > Israel and the United States have an interest in preventing tunnels in. Prisons and prison nations, like North Korea or the old East Germany, have an interest in preventing tunnels out. The whole notion of a tunnel is a gift to Israel. The Presbyterians surrounding Israel fire cheap unguided rockets by the dozens into Israel who respond by firing expensive high-tech guided missiles to take out their cheap missiles. (Remember all that debate we had here about THAAD? Where are the nay-sayers now that they are saving lives?) In the long run, the Episcopalians win that battle, even if no one perishes: they spend millions attacking, Israel spends billions defending. A tunnel is an example of a technology that is high investment on the part of the attacker, but relatively easily defeated. The construction would be detected acoustically, then the defender waits for the tunnel to be completed (and the construction efforts invested) then as the attackers emerge, detected by IR signature before they can do any damage, the defender fires the usual weapons, then subsequently floods the tunnel with low-cost flammable liquid, such as good old Diesel fuel. They could carry down the tunnel drums of fuel on low-cost RC or autonomous vehicles, pierce the drums, ignite and let them go. The Israelis spend millions to defeat millions. They win in that battle. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Jul 20 17:29:42 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 13:29:42 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 11:52 AM, Harvey Newstrom wrote: > I think you misunderstood my point. I was not discussing how much or > little the language had changed. I was pointing out the weak chain of > assumptions that: most Arab readers are Muslim > And that is true, > most Muslims follow the Quran > And that is true, > > most Quran readers are extreme fundamentalists > Ah the moderate Muslim, that elusive prey that's as hard to find as Big Foot or cold fusion or ESP or flying saucers. In a 2013 Pew Research Survey over 50% of the Muslims in the Middle East and South Asia believe that those who wish to change their religion away from Islam (the religion of piece) to another religion or to no religion should be beheaded. The majority also thinks that female adulterers (but not male ones!) should be stoned to death. And Abu Azmi the leader of the Islamic Socialist Party in India thinks that victims of rape should be hanged because consensual oy not these women still engaged in sex outside of marriage. But I do admit that American Muslims are not as radical, only 46% of them think that those who ?criticize or parody Islam in the U.S. should face criminal charges?. As Bill Muehlenberg at Culture Watch said: ?So did you hear about the mass demo of Muslims in Sydney worried about Islamic extremism? Did you catch the big turnout of Muslims in Paris denouncing jihad? Did you notice the tens of thousands of Muslims marching in London to stand against Islamic bloodshed and violence in Iraq? Did you read about the anti-jihad protests by concerned Muslims in Amsterdam?" "Neither did I." ?Instead, all we hear is crickets chirping. The silence has been deafening. One atrocity after another takes place all over the world, and the Islamic community remains absolutely mute. We just don?t hear a peep out of them distancing themselves from the terror and murder. And there may be several reasons for this. One, moderate Muslims really may not exist. Perhaps that is the reason. Or two, if they do exist, they rightly know that if they do speak up, they could well lose their heads ? literally. That is also telling: Islam is so bad, that those who prefer real tolerance, civilisation and basic humanity are too terrified to speak up. And heaven knows there is plenty to speak up about. Not a day goes by without yet another horrific atrocity and murderous rampage being committed in the name of Islam. It becomes nearly impossible to keep up with them all. > > my point was that this would be as spurious as saying: most English > readers are Christian > And that is true > > most Christians follow the Bible > And that is not true. Even though the core belief of Christianity (Jesus was God) is even stupider than the core belief of Islam (there is no God but Allah and Mohamed is His messenger) Christians largely keep their loony ideas in a box that they only open for a few hours on Sunday, Muslims keep their box of crazy open 24-7. Christians just don't take their religion as seriously as Muslims do, a thousand years ago they did but not now. And even a Christian preacher that we on this list would think of as a Neanderthal fundamentalists would be a radical social progressive in the Islamic world. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From mail at harveynewstrom.com Sun Jul 20 17:30:19 2014 From: mail at harveynewstrom.com (Harvey Newstrom) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 13:30:19 -0400 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <002d01cfa440$47a101b0$d6e30510$@harveynewstrom.com> On Sunday, July 20, 2014 11:54 AM, BillK wrote, > By coincidence, an article by Thomas Frey has just appeared - > "When Everyone Becomes Blackmailable" > blackmailable/> This is more than a possibility. This is already happening. The NSA gives potential employees polygraphs demanding to know their embarrassing sexual secrets so they can be coerced later if necessary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_Agency#Polygraphing The NSA captures internet porn traffic to discredit people later if necessary: http://benswann.com/the-nsa-is-watching-people-watch-porn/ Previous whistleblowers have already claimed such blackmail: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/06/nsa-whistleblower-nsa-spying-on-and-b lackmailing-high-level-government-officials-and-military-officers.html -- Harvey Newstrom www.HarveyNewstrom.com From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Jul 20 17:45:31 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 13:45:31 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: <001c01cfa433$1a4e2510$4eea6f30$@harveynewstrom.com> References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001c01cfa433$1a4e2510$4eea6f30$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 11:56 AM, Harvey Newstrom wrote: >> but even though it's more than twice as old written Arabic has changed >> very little since the Quran was written >> > > > Apparently, according to Wikipedia, this claim is only made for political > and religious purposes. > Politics and religion are the only things that could effect an unbeliever living outside the Islamic world, it has been many many centuries since something new and interesting on some other subject first appeared in Arabic. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sun Jul 20 17:42:31 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 10:42:31 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: <037001cfa441$fbd1bd90$f37538b0$@att.net> John K. Clark, you flaming speciesist! >?And even a Christian preacher that we on this list would think of as a Neanderthal fundamentalists would be a radical social progressive in the Islamic world. John K Clark No disrespecting Neanderthals please. That just isn?t nice. Neanderthals were good almost people. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sun Jul 20 17:57:08 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 10:57:08 -0700 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: <002d01cfa440$47a101b0$d6e30510$@harveynewstrom.com> References: <002d01cfa440$47a101b0$d6e30510$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: <03b101cfa444$0680f600$1382e200$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of Harvey Newstrom >...Subject: Re: [ExI] internet privacy On Sunday, July 20, 2014 11:54 AM, BillK wrote, >> By coincidence, an article by Thomas Frey has just appeared - "When > Everyone Becomes Blackmailable" > >...This is more than a possibility. This is already happening. >...The NSA gives potential employees polygraphs demanding to know their embarrassing sexual secrets so they can be coerced later if necessary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_Agency#Polygraphing >...The NSA captures internet porn traffic to discredit people later if necessary: http://benswann.com/the-nsa-is-watching-people-watch-porn/ >...Previous whistleblowers have already claimed such blackmail: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/06/nsa-whistleblower-nsa-spying-on-and-b lackmailing-high-level-government-officials-and-military-officers.html -- >...Harvey Newstrom www.HarveyNewstrom.com _______________________________________________ Harvey this is the kind of power that is intoxicating to any bureaucrat. If they know everyone's secrets, every google search everyone ever made, every website everyone ever viewed, that NSA agent has power far beyond anything seen in government to date. Forget the threat of an IRS audit or an EPA raid. Any subtle threat to reveal all ones secrets will keep the masses in line. How could such power ever go without being abused? They could store all that stuff forever. They have the means and the motive: complete control of the population. We have seen with the IRS case and the FEC case that bureaucrats have their own political agendas completely apart from any orders from above, and they use the power they are given to promote those views. That sets a precedent for the next administration. Does anyone here think the right wing incomers are going to be any less corrupt and power hungry than the outgoing left wingers? Power corrupts equally. It's the power that corrupts, not the philosophy. spike From pharos at gmail.com Sun Jul 20 19:11:04 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 20:11:04 +0100 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 5:36 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > Wouldn't the computer need an 'in'? Just how would it know what any word > means without knowing what is a verb, a noun, the usual word order of the > language, etc.? > > I can't see a computer decoding 'slithy tove', as it has no meaning outside > the poem - and not in it either. We'd have to as the Rev. Dodgson. bill w > The point of language is to communicate meaning. So words have to mean the same thing to other speakers of that language. So you look at context. That's how dead languages are eventually translated. Codes on the other hand are a jumble of meaningless letters until the key is applied. BilllK From mail at harveynewstrom.com Sun Jul 20 19:14:24 2014 From: mail at harveynewstrom.com (Harvey Newstrom) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 15:14:24 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: <004201cfa44e$d24204a0$76c60de0$@harveynewstrom.com> On Sunday, July 20, 2014 1:30 PM, John Clark wrote, > Ah the moderate Muslim, that elusive prey that's as hard to find as Big Foot > or cold fusion or ESP or flying saucers. OK, I understand your point. I am not going to debate whether moderate Muslims even exist. I think they do, but apparently you do not. I don't think I have any new information that your probably haven't already seen already. So we don't need to duplicate that particular discussion on this list. On Sunday, July 20, 2014 1:46 PM, John Clark wrote, On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 11:56 AM, Harvey Newstrom wrote: > > Apparently, according to Wikipedia, this claim is only made for political and religious purposes. > Politics and religion are the only things that could effect.... OK, you caught me by my own words, and I think I must concede. I was arguing that the actual numbers within the overlapping populations (Arabs, Muslims, extremists) cannot even come close to justifying the cause and effect you describe. However, as your counterpoint makes me realize, when politics and religion become involved, the actual numbers don't matter. Popular opinion can be manipulated by a minority via politics and religion to dictate public policy overriding the views of the majority. So your explanation about extremist Muslims limiting the number of books translated into Arabic may actually be correct, even if I am right about most Arabic readers having no such objections. -- Harvey Newstrom www.HarveyNewstrom.com From pharos at gmail.com Sun Jul 20 19:36:22 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 20:36:22 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: <001c01cfa433$1a4e2510$4eea6f30$@harveynewstrom.com> References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001c01cfa433$1a4e2510$4eea6f30$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 4:56 PM, Harvey Newstrom wrote: > Literary scholars actually consider the Classical Arabic (of the Quran) > and the Modern Standard Arabic (MSA) to be two separate languages. > (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabic_language#Arabic_and_Islam) > > There is a recent interesting New Yorker article about Arabic. Quote: Earlier Disney films (from "Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs" to "Pocahontas" to "Tangled") were dubbed into Egyptian Arabic, the dialect with the largest number of speakers in the region, based in a country with a venerable history of film production. Generations of Arabs grew up watching Egyptian movies, and the Disney musicals capitalized on their familiarity with this particular dialect. This time Disney decided to dub "Frozen" into Modern Standard Arabic. Modern Standard Arabic is very similar to Classical Arabic, the centuries-old lingua franca of the medieval Islamic world. Today, it is the language of officialdom, high culture, books, newscasts, and political sermonizing. Most television shows, films, and advertisements are in colloquial Arabic, and the past several years have seen further incursions of the dialects into areas traditionally reserved for the literary language. It's tricky to describe the quality of a literary text in a formal language to a speaker of American English or any other language that does not contain the same range of linguistic variety as diglossic language families like Arabic, Chinese, and Hindi. One way to put it is that Modern Standard Arabic is even less similar to regional Arabic dialects than the English of the King James Bible is to the patter of an ESPN sportscaster. The Arab world, however, is no longer culturally unipolar, with most of its films and music originating in Egypt. The most popular soap operas of the region are Syrian, North African films are staples of the festival circuits, and some of the largest media conglomerates are based in the Gulf. This is to say nothing of the effect that the Web and social media are having on the penetration of Arabic dialects into written communication, which is incalculable. The age of the Arabic vernacular is here; someone just needs to tell the talking snowman. --------------- So it seems that the literary Classical Arabic is dying out among the Arab populations. BillK From lubkin at unreasonable.com Sun Jul 20 20:15:25 2014 From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 16:15:25 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Tunnels In-Reply-To: <033b01cfa43c$acef2320$06cd6960$@att.net> References: <201407200035.s6K0ZD1r001562@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <033b01cfa43c$acef2320$06cd6960$@att.net> Message-ID: <201407202015.s6KKFbXR017350@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Spike wrote: >The whole notion of a tunnel is a gift to Israel. The Presbyterians >surrounding Israel fire cheap unguided rockets by the dozens into >Israel who respond by firing expensive high-tech guided missiles to >take out their cheap missiles. (Remember all that debate we had >here about THAAD? Where are the nay-sayers now that they are saving >lives?) In the long run, the Episcopalians win that battle, even if >no one perishes: they spend millions attacking, Israel spends >billions defending. When my father was inventing drone aircraft forty years ago, and figuring out uses for same for the Israelis and the US, an essential strength of his design was that he sold them (at a good profit) for $3000 each and they carried 70 kg of payload. Same logic: The ordinance to shoot them down cost more than they did. Also, the simplest battlefield use is load 70 kg of explosives, fly around until you see something worth more than $3000 (which most things are), and explode into it. >A tunnel is an example of a technology that is high investment on >the part of the attacker, but relatively easily defeated. The >construction would be detected acoustically, then the defender waits >for the tunnel to be completed (and the construction efforts >invested) then as the attackers emerge, detected by IR signature >before they can do any damage, the defender fires the usual weapons, >then subsequently floods the tunnel with low-cost flammable liquid, >such as good old Diesel fuel. They could carry down the tunnel >drums of fuel on low-cost RC or autonomous vehicles, pierce the >drums, ignite and let them go. The Israelis spend millions to >defeat millions. They win in that battle. If tunnel construction is so easy to detect, why do we keep finding smugglers' tunnels into the US? I've always assumed the government has only found and reported on a fraction of the tunnels. Co-opted law enforcement? Incompetence? Need for a continual supply of anti-drug success stories? -- David. From spike66 at att.net Sun Jul 20 21:05:41 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 14:05:41 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Tunnels In-Reply-To: <201407202015.s6KKFbXR017350@andromeda.ziaspace.com> References: <201407200035.s6K0ZD1r001562@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <033b01cfa43c$acef2320$06cd6960$@att.net> <201407202015.s6KKFbXR017350@andromeda.ziaspace.com> Message-ID: <041f01cfa45e$5d9fab60$18df0220$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of David Lubkin ... >...If tunnel construction is so easy to detect, why do we keep finding smugglers' tunnels into the US? I've always assumed the government has only found and reported on a fraction of the tunnels. Co-opted law enforcement? Incompetence? Need for a continual supply of anti-drug success stories? -- David. _______________________________________________ Heh. So non-cynical is my own friend. The US government is not trying to stop tunnels. They are only making a pretend effort to stem the tide of illegal immigration from the south, and plenty of the children pouring across the border are carrying drugs. Yesterday high-caliber rounds were fired on INS agents from the south side of the border to the north side. Who do you suppose would have access to 50 caliber ammo? The drug cartels, hoping to protect their deliveries in the US. Now we have a US president who said he believes immigrants brought to the states illegally when they were children should be given citizenship. In the US, the president doesn't make the rules, congress does. So how is that comment interpreted in most countries in South America where the president makes the rules and not congress? They heard it as an open invitation, and up they come. You know plenty of them are carrying dope, in exchange for transportation from South America to the Rio Grande. They don't even need tunnels, and the US has little interest in stopping their construction. To your original question, acoustic pickups would be easy to insert in the ground every 100 meters or so, ones with internal Fourier transform capability and time-stamping, in order to frequency-match acoustic events, then calculate approximately where they originated. They could sit and listen to the tunnels being built, then just have armed drones ready to launch whenever the IR signatures of the Methodists emerging from the ground are detected. In retrospect, they wouldn't even need to start a fire in the tunnel; they could send a drone in there to scatter cyanide gas mines, disguised as pebbles. Or perhaps scatter iso-cyanide in a parade-chlorobenzene matrix, by drone in a tunnel, in a pea-gravel sized format. The stuff continuously sublimes, releasing the poison gas, so anyone who tries to go thru there would likely perish. They don't want to do that quite yet however: the tunnel is a high-investment structure and a battle the Israelis can win. In the long run, the firing of low-cost missiles which need to be intercepted by high-cost missiles, that one isn't so clear to me. It looks like in the long run, Israel loses. Another reason why Israel wouldn't want to actually stop the construction of tunnels: PR. The Mormons fire thousands of rockets into Israel, the press doesn't notice or care. That isn't news. The Israelis fire one back, and it hits right were the others were fired from, that's the news story. Israel loses the PR battle. Now suppose a tunnel is built and Israel has some kind of tricky technology to kill everyone in that tunnel. No big weepy headlines about children being killed by missiles. Everybody in that tunnel is a bad guy. So let them build. They are easier to defeat. spike From painlord2k at libero.it Sun Jul 20 22:18:07 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 00:18:07 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: <53CC401F.20905@libero.it> Il 20/07/2014 19:29, John Clark ha scritto: > > most Christians follow the Bible > And that is not true. I would say most Christians try to follow the Bible: Don't Steal, Don't Kill, Don't give false testimony, etc. Don't do unto others.... Love thy neighbor... Christianity is mainly about Christians (find text about how deal with outside the faith and look what they say) The Quran is mainly centered about not Muslims and how Muslims must deal with them. The Quran talk of You. Mirco From steinberg.will at gmail.com Mon Jul 21 00:19:46 2014 From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 19:19:46 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: On Jul 19, 2014 2:22 PM, "John Clark" wrote: > Written English has changed radically in the 400 years since the King James Bible was new, but even though it's more than twice as old written Arabic has changed very little since the Quran was written. John, I think you wrote "because" as "even though" by mistake! -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sjv2006 at gmail.com Mon Jul 21 01:34:28 2014 From: sjv2006 at gmail.com (Stephen Van Sickle) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 18:34:28 -0700 Subject: [ExI] possible scheme for privacy In-Reply-To: <020101cfa2d3$58a56ff0$09f04fd0$@att.net> References: <020101cfa2d3$58a56ff0$09f04fd0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Jul 18, 2014 3:12 PM, "spike" wrote: > OK so the NSA reads email. So here ya go: collect a bunch of salacious stuff, nude photos from anywhere that look like selfies, I think you are on the right track, but messages will be cryptographically embedded by steganography. In fact, in the near future, most data sent in the clear will be pornography, with the transmitted data one layer of abstraction higher. This will officially be adopted by the Internet Engineering Task Force as the Porn Layer, something of a misnomer since it will also include a significant percentage of kitten videos and guys saying "hold my beer while I try this'. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Mon Jul 21 04:09:14 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 00:09:14 -0400 Subject: [ExI] possible scheme for privacy In-Reply-To: <002701cfa43b$03609240$0a21b6c0$@harveynewstrom.com> References: <002701cfa43b$03609240$0a21b6c0$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 12:52 PM, Harvey Newstrom wrote: > > > In TOR, a far-reaching entity can monitor a very large number of ISPs and > exit nodes to match traffic patterns between the sender (real IP and > encrypted message) and the TOR exit node (fake IP and unencrypted message) > to link the real IP with the unencrypted message. Although TOR is > generally safe, there is no way to prevent a big enough monitoring system > from catching everything. > ( > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_(anonymity_network)#cite_note-torproject-fail-both-ends-32 > ) > > ### How about using a continuous data stream from all users to cover up actual usage pattern? If I am sending and receiving an encrypted one-time pad-randomized 1 kb/s 24/7, I can send and receive an arbitrary number of text messages without an adversary being able to determine when or what I send to or from whom, unless they have the one time pad and full access to the stream of data and access to the nodes routing my data stream, or they have hardware access on my end (i.e. they own me anyway). Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Mon Jul 21 13:08:54 2014 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 06:08:54 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Ultimate cause of fighting and solution Message-ID: The ultimate cause of wars and related civil disturbances is falling income per capita or the anticipation of same. Usually this is the result of population increasing faster then the economy, but sometimes it's just the economy failing from, for example, bad weather for crops. As oil runs out we will see more and more war or situations such as that in Syria and Iraq. I have posted about this a bunch of times since 2005. http://www.mankindquarterly.org/summer2006_henson.html Besides trying to understand wars, I have also worked on alleviating the root cause. Most of the problems in the world would dwindle to non problems if the population shrank or at least stopped growing. Where that's happened there is little pressure to go to war. Rich populations generally have low birth rates. Raising the effect wealth per capita by lowering the cost of energy seems to me to be a step in the right direction. So I work on power satellites. I now have a relatively low tech microwave propulsion from LEO to GEO to compliment Skylon and a relatively high tech laser scheme. Those who have been watching have seen the laser propulsion scheme develop over the years. The microwave scheme is relatively new. It's in a paper for a conference that goes on this week. Can't post, but in the event someone here would like to see it, ask. I never got involved with power satellite design before, figuring the transport problem had to be solved first. But as an outgrowth of the laser work decided to take a crack at it. The current design looks like it will come in well under 7 kg/kW, and is currently a bit under 5 kg/kW. It's draft, but again if there is anyone who would like to see it, ask. Keith From mail at harveynewstrom.com Mon Jul 21 13:21:46 2014 From: mail at harveynewstrom.com (Harvey Newstrom) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 09:21:46 -0400 Subject: [ExI] possible scheme for privacy In-Reply-To: References: <002701cfa43b$03609240$0a21b6c0$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: <000a01cfa4e6$b936bf80$2ba43e80$@harveynewstrom.com> On Monday, July 21, 2014 12:09 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote, > On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 12:52 PM, Harvey Newstrom wrote: > > In TOR, a far-reaching entity can monitor a very large number of ISPs > > and exit nodes to match traffic patterns between the sender (real IP and > > encrypted message) and the TOR exit node (fake IP and unencrypted > > message) to link the real IP with the unencrypted message. Although TOR is > > generally safe, there is no way to prevent a big enough monitoring system > > from catching everything. > > (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_(anonymity_network)#cite_note > > -torproject-fail-both-ends-32) > > ### How about using a continuous data stream from all users to cover up > actual usage pattern? If I am sending and receiving an encrypted one-time > pad-randomized 1 kb/s 24/7, I can send and receive an arbitrary number of > text messages without an adversary being able to determine when or what I > send to or from whom, unless they have the one time pad and full access to > the stream of data and access to the nodes routing my data stream, or they > have hardware access on my end (i.e. they own me anyway). In theory, yes, this would be the perfect answer. However, the devil is in the details, as usual. The problem is the way applications, operating systems, and routers fragment packets and send them. Even if all users send identical messages at identical times, their different environments will fragment them into a different number of packets, and buffer them into different timing patterns. So the fingerprint of the traffic analysis would still be variable between different users doing the exact same thing. And it's more than just the intended traffic that needs to be made uniform. The underlying TCP/IP stack on the operating systems and routers will respond differently to lost packets, resend requests, time-out duration, dynamic window sizes for throughput, optimizing throughput speeds, buffer sizes and related delays, etc. To make the traffic look identical, all users would have to use the exact same hardware, software, operating systems, TCP/IP stacks, patching levels, router brands, memory/disk sizes and delays, number of hops in their local network, and constant unchanging traffic loads on their local networks. To be even more extreme, there could be differing timing delays or error rates based on what brand Ethernet cables they use and how far they are from the electrical wires in each home. There would be no way to make everything exactly identical. Beyond the above items that might be within the user's control, there is no way all users could obtain the same distance/delay to their local ISP, or have all ISPs using the same exact same hardware, software, operating systems, TCP/IP stacks, patching levels, router brands, memory/disk sizes and delays, number of hops in their local network, and constant unchanging traffic loads on their metropolitan area networks. The extremely complex chain of connectivity between each user and their ISP will add traffic analysis signatures unique to that user, but outside their control, somewhere between their location and their ISP. At first glance, this seems unlikely to be doable by individual users. Maybe if a whole apartment building or neighborhood block merged their traffic and tunneled it through a shared VPN, they might be able to mask individual differences. But then they would be traceable back to that local group. As long as each person has an individual data stream to their ISP, they will probably have unique traffic analysis signatures. -- Harvey Newstrom www.HarveyNewstrom.com From listsb at infinitefaculty.org Mon Jul 21 13:21:19 2014 From: listsb at infinitefaculty.org (Brian Manning Delaney) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 15:21:19 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Slowly moving important questions into the mainstream [Was: new names] In-Reply-To: <1331569093-8910@secure.ericade.net> References: <1331569093-8910@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <53CD13CF.7010702@infinitefaculty.org> El 2014-05-31 01:05, Anders Sandberg escribi?: [...] > This would have been amusing, except I actually encounter people who get > terribly upset when I mention climate change is unlikely to be an > existential risk. Just check out some of the reactions in the comments: > https://theconversation.com/the-five-biggest-threats-to-human-existence-27053 [...] (Just saw Anders' article here: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/21/five-biggest-threats-human-existence) Was at a get-together with some philosophers here in Stockholm -- a mixture of (so-called...) analytic philosophers from Stockholm University and Continental philosophers from S?dert?rn University, and lo and behold, a heated discussion of Anders' just-(re-)published Guardian article arose. Good to see academic types -- esp. those who typically focus on Hegel and Heidegger & co. -- taking up these issues. The article seemed deftly designed to pose the important questions without getting into realms, or using terms (like "singularity"), that can come across as flaky. The role of the philosopher is still fundamentally Socratic in my view: getting people to question what they think they know. So, Socratically well done, Anders! Brian From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Jul 21 14:24:20 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 09:24:20 -0500 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: > The point of language is to communicate meaning. So words have to mean > the same thing to other speakers of that language. So you look at > context. That's how dead languages are eventually translated. > Codes on the other hand are a jumble of meaningless letters until the > key is applied. > > BilllK > ?I am not convinced. A completely new language, not akin to Indo European or anything else, is just a jumble of meaningless letters without a key.? ?How could you figure out the context? It could be a car manual or poems on death for all you know. bill w? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From angelarturo911216.1991 at gmail.com Sun Jul 20 21:49:41 2014 From: angelarturo911216.1991 at gmail.com (=?UTF-8?Q?Angel_Arturo_Ramirez_Su=C3=A1rez?=) Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 16:49:41 -0500 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BRe=3A__possible_scheme_for_privacy?= Message-ID: ?Sorry about that, like this? Wondered whether it was automatically trimmed or who managed it. Guess I got my answer. Thanks! ? > ? > >Meshnet is a very good effort, but still has some ongoing security issues > that need to be addressed. > > The FAQ says the protocol used by Meshnet "is not anonymous, nor is it > intended to be." > (https://wiki.projectmeshnet.org/FAQ#Is_Cjdns_anonymous.3F) > There are also many other problems documented with the Meshnet protocol. > The white-paper says, "Not every problem listed has an existing solution > and of the ones which do, many of the solutions are based on incompatible > technology." > ( > https://github.com/cjdelisle/cjdns/blob/master/doc/Whitepaper.md#user-content-so-the-problems-are-already-solved > ) > So this solution is not complete yet. But it is definitely good work and > headed in the right direction! > > > > ?Thanks! I got interested after reading Ander's Sandberg's Transhuman > page, I had no idea the community was so active. > > > > Now about the anonymity, from what I read the protocol lets people know > who is connected but not what kind of information is sent to try to avoid > the kind of issues most DeepWeb/DarkNet protocols face which is that they > promote illegal activities due to the fake identities and anonymity, I > still don't know how good their approach is but they welcome any developer > to submit their own ideas of how the new web should be. > > > > ?>? > > In TOR, a far-reaching entity can monitor a very large number of ISPs and > exit nodes to match traffic patterns between the sender (real IP and > encrypted message) and the TOR exit node (fake IP and unencrypted message) > to link the real IP with the unencrypted message. Although TOR is > generally safe, there is no way to prevent a big enough monitoring system > from catching everything. > ( > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_(anonymity_network)#cite_note-torproject-fail-both-ends-32 > ) > > ?>? > > In BitCoin, anybody can claim a bitcoin mere seconds after somebody > announces it. The community of BitCoin nodes vote on whose claim they saw > first. But a well-funded entity can create a large enough number of nodes > in a single group or on the fastest backbones such that they can out-vote > everybody and claim any BitCoin they want. > ( > http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/184427-one-bitcoin-group-now-controls-51-of-total-mining-power-threatening-entire-currencys-safety > ) > > ?Agree that Tor and BitCoin have those issues and MeshNet definitely has > its own, as you said it's an arms race on ?who can provide the highest > level of security versus those that want to read it. > > > > I'm curious on what would be the best scheme for humanity's future, > especially know that brain-computer interfaces are making reading and > rewriting memories a possibility. Should we strive for a world where > there's a layer that allows complete privacy and anonymity and freedom to > access any content we want or should we instead strive for a society where > nothing's hidden, not even our thoughts and everything's freely accessed? > It would promote honesty and make criminal thoughts or activities harder to > commit but at the same time the idea of losing all privacy seems > unappealing. > > > > What are extropians thoughts on the matter? I'm curious. > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Mon Jul 21 14:54:16 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 16:54:16 +0200 Subject: [ExI] possible scheme for privacy In-Reply-To: <000a01cfa4e6$b936bf80$2ba43e80$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: <1499887825-10727@secure.ericade.net> Harvey Newstrom??, 21/7/2014 3:26 PM: In theory, yes, this would be the perfect answer. ?However, the devil is in the details, as usual. Amen to that. A while ago I had a somewhat similar idea, and started reading up a bit on the issues. I soon realized that traffic analysis people are frighteningly smart, just like other cryptoanalysis people (or rather, they collective intelligence expressed in past known results - individuals are no doubt all over the place). Just because I couldn't see a way of cracking something didn't mean it was actually tough. Bruce Schneier is as always right with his dictum.? If I wanted to hide communications I would write letters. Now, once a few secret bits have been exchanged that way, one can do a lot... Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Mon Jul 21 14:43:02 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 16:43:02 +0200 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1499029331-31047@secure.ericade.net> William Flynn Wallace , 21/7/2014 4:29 PM: The point of language is to communicate meaning. So words have to mean the same thing to other speakers of that language. So you look at context. That's how dead languages are eventually translated. Codes on the other hand are a jumble of meaningless letters until the key is applied. ?I am not convinced.? A completely new language, not akin to Indo European or anything else, is just a jumble of meaningless letters without a key.? ??How could you figure out the context?? It could be a car manual or poems on death for all you know.? Have you looked at elementary cryptoanalysis, like cracking substitution cyphers? Once you see statistical regularities you can start deducing a lot of things if you are clever. And human languages do have a fairly complex statistical structure - Zipf laws, entropy distributions, recursion etc. You can of course invent something utterly dissimilar (just check out some of the really weird conlangs like?https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C4%93len), but then using it becomes extremely hard. If "The enemy is attacking by air on tuesday" has to be expressed as a superposition of emotion-states with no?nouns and spelling looking like cartoon swearing, then usage will be weak. Even Klingon is just a lot of unusual options found in human languages strung together to make a kind of linguist-in-joke (and even linguists find it hard to learn to use), but still likely very decypherable to a motivated opponent.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Mon Jul 21 14:46:46 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 16:46:46 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Slowly moving important questions into the mainstream [Was: new names] In-Reply-To: <53CD13CF.7010702@infinitefaculty.org> Message-ID: <1499543771-31054@secure.ericade.net> Brian Manning Delaney , 21/7/2014 3:50 PM: Was at a get-together with some philosophers here in Stockholm -- a mixture of (so-called...) analytic philosophers from Stockholm University and Continental philosophers from S?dert?rn University, Haha, the stereotypes of Stockholm academia remain true! :-) and lo and behold, a heated discussion of Anders' just-(re-)published Guardian article arose. Any useful comments? Good to see academic types -- esp. those who typically focus on Hegel and Heidegger & co. -- taking up these issues. The article seemed deftly designed to pose the important questions without getting into realms, or using terms (like "singularity"), that can come across as flaky. Yes, I deliberately tried to avoid that. Both as good popular science (do not feed the flakes :-) and to protect the field. Heaven knows there are enough doomsday people around, and far too few xrisk reduction people. I also made the article linkbait by turning it into a list.? The role of the philosopher is still fundamentally Socratic in my view: getting people to question what they think they know. So, Socratically well done, Anders! Thanks! Now I better check my food for hemlock :-) Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Jul 21 15:18:58 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 11:18:58 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 Will Steinberg wrote: > > Written English has changed radically in the 400 years since the King >> James Bible was new, but even though it's more than twice as old written >> Arabic has changed very little since the Quran was written. >> > > John, I think you wrote "because" as "even though" by mistake! > Actually the Quran is more like 3 times as old as The King James Bible; the Quran was written around 630, the King James Bible in 1611. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Mon Jul 21 15:33:38 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 16:33:38 +0100 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 21, 2014 at 3:24 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > I am not convinced. A completely new language, not akin to Indo European or > anything else, is just a jumble of meaningless letters without a key. > > How could you figure out the context? It could be a car manual or poems on > death for all you know. bill w > > It depends on how much other information you have and how many samples of the language you have. If you found the document under a broken down car, covered in oily fingerprints, then you might guess it had something to do with car repair. :) Philology is the study of dead languages. A subset is Decipherment - the translation of dead languages. Quote: Decipherment is the analysis of documents written in ancient languages, where the language is unknown, or knowledge of the language has been lost. It is closely related to cryptanalysis - the difference being that the original document was not deliberately written to be difficult to decipher. Examples of document decipherment: Cuneiform (script)Cuneiform writing Harappan writing Egyptian hieroglyphic writing Indus script Linear A Linear B Maya writing Olmec writing -------- It is not a trivial task, of course. These people are experts in their field. BillK From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Jul 21 15:57:57 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 11:57:57 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: <53CC401F.20905@libero.it> References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> <53CC401F.20905@libero.it> Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 6:18 PM, Mirco Romanato wrote: I would say most Christians try to follow the Bible: > So do Christians stone to death their neighbor if they notice that they're working on the Sabbath as the Bible commands them to do? Do Christians murder their children if they talk back to them as the Bible advises them to do? Of course they don't! Instead Christians use their own moral compass (that has nothing to do with religion) and cherry pick that vastly overrated book. Christians and talk about some nice quotations that are in the Bible and just ignore the many that are stupid, psychopathic or just plain evil. Modern Christians may say that they believe every work in the Bible but they most certainly do not behave as if they did. Unfortunately most Muslims DO behave as if they believed every word in the Quran. > The Quran is mainly centered about not Muslims and how Muslims must deal > with them. > Yes. The following is from the Sam Harris book "The End Of Faith". *" *Open the Koran, which is perfect in its every syllable, and simply read it with the eyes of faith. You will see how little compassion need be wasted on those whom God himself is in the process of ?mocking,? ?cursing,? ?shaming,? ?punishing,? ?scourging,? ?judging,? ?burning,? ?annihilating,? ?not forgiving,? and ?not reprieving.? God, who is infinitely wise, has cursed the infidels with their doubts. He prolongs their life and prosperity so that they may continue heaping sin upon sin and all the more richly deserve the torments that await them beyond the grave. In this light, the people who died on September 11 were nothing more than fuel for the eternal fires of God?s justice. To convey the relentlessness with which unbelievers are vilified in the text of the Koran, I provide a long compilation of quotations below, in order of their appearance in the text. This is what the Creator of the universe apparently has on his mind (when he is not fussing with gravitational constants and atomic weights):" *?It is the same whether or not you forewarn them [the unbelievers], they will have no faith? (2:6). ?God will mock them and keep them long in sin, blundering blindly along? (2:15). A fire ?whose fuel is men and stones? awaits them (2:24). They will be ?rewarded with disgrace in this world and with grievous punishment on the Day of Resurrection? (2:85). ?God?s curse be upon the infidels!? (2:89). ?They have incurred God?s most inexorable wrath. An ignominious punishment awaits [them]? (2:90). ?God is the enemy of the unbelievers? (2:98). ?The unbelievers among the People of the Book [Christians and Jews], and the pagans, resent that any blessing should have been sent down to you from your Lord? (2:105). ?They shall be held up to shame in this world and sternly punished in the hereafter? (2:114). ?Those to whom We [God] have given the Book, and who read it as it ought to be read, truly believe in it; those that deny it shall assuredly be lost? (2:122). ?[We] shall let them live awhile, and then shall drag them to the scourge of the Fire. Evil shall be their fate? (2:126). ?The East and the West are God?s. He guides whom He will to a straight path? (2:142). ?Do not say that those slain in the cause of God are dead. They are alive, but you are not aware of them? (2:154). ?But the infidels who die unbelievers shall incur the curse of God, the angels, and all men. Under it they shall remain for ever; their punishment shall not be lightened, nor shall they be reprieved? (2:162). ?They shall sigh with remorse, but shall never come out of the Fire? (2:168). ?The unbelievers are like beasts which, call out to them as one may, can hear nothing but a shout and a cry. Deaf, dumb, and blind, they understand nothing? (2:172). ?Theirs shall be a woeful punishment? (2:175). ?How steadfastly they seek the Fire! That is because God has revealed the Book with truth; those that disagree about it are in extreme schism? (2:176). ?Slay them wherever you find them. Drive them out of the places from which they drove you. Idolatry is worse than carnage. . . . f they attack you put them to the sword. Thus shall the unbelievers be rewarded: but if they desist, God is forgiving and merciful. Fight against them until idolatry is no more and God?s religion reigns supreme. But if they desist, fight none except the evil-doers?(2:190?93). ?Fighting is obligatory for you, much as you dislike it. But you may hate a thing although it is good for you, and love a thing although it is bad for you. God knows, but you know not? (2:216). ?They will not cease to fight against you until they force you to renounce your faith?if they are able. But whoever of you recants and dies an unbeliever, his works shall come to nothing in this world and in the world to come. Such men shall be the tenants of Hell, wherein they shall abide forever. Those that have embraced the Faith, and those that have fled their land and fought for the cause of God, may hope for God?s mercy? (2:217?18). ?God does not guide the evil-doers? (2:258). ?God does not guide the unbelievers? (2:264). ?The evil-doers shall have none to help them? (2:270). ?God gives guidance to whom He will? (2:272).""Those that deny God?s revelations shall be sternly punished; God is mighty and capable of revenge? (3:5). ?As for the unbelievers, neither their riches nor their children will in the least save them from God?s judgment. They shall become fuel for the Fire? (3:10). ?Say to the unbelievers: ?You shall be overthrown and driven into Hell?an evil resting place!?? (3:12). ?The only true faith in God?s sight is Islam. . . . He that denies God?s revelations should know that swift is God?s reckoning? (3:19). ?Let the believers not make friends with infidels in preference to the faithful?he that does this has nothing to hope for from God?except in self-defense? (3:28). ?Believers, do not make friends with any but your own people. They will spare no pains to corrupt you. They desire nothing but your ruin. Their hatred is evident from what they utter with their mouths, but greater is the hatred which their breasts conceal? (3:118). ?If you have suffered a defeat, so did the enemy. We alternate these vicissitudes among mankind so that God may know the true believers and choose martyrs from among you (God does not love the evil-doers); and that God may test the faithful and annihilate the infidels? (3:140). ?Believers, if you yield to the infidels they will drag you back to unbelief and you will return headlong to perdition. . . . We will put terror into the hearts of the unbelievers. . . . The Fire shall be their home? (3:149?51). ?Believers, do not follow the example of the infidels, who say of their brothers when they meet death abroad or in battle: ?Had they stayed with us they would not have died, nor would they have been killed.? God will cause them to regret their words. . . . If you should die or be slain in the cause of God, God?s forgiveness and His mercy would surely be better than all the riches they amass? (3:156). "?Never think that those who were slain in the cause of God are dead. They are alive, and well provided for by their Lord; pleased with His gifts and rejoicing that those they left behind, who have not yet joined them, have nothing to fear or to regret; rejoicing in God?s grace and bounty. God will not deny the faithful their reward? (3:169). ?Let not the unbelievers think that We prolong their days for their own good. We give them respite only so that they may commit more grievous sins. Shameful punishment awaits them? (3:178). ?Those that suffered persecution for My sake and fought and were slain: I shall forgive them their sins and admit them to gardens watered by running streams, as a reward from God; God holds the richest recompense. Do not be deceived by the fortunes of the unbelievers in the land. Their prosperity is brief. Hell shall be their home, a dismal resting place? (3:195?96)."?God has cursed them in their unbelief? (4:46). ?God will not forgive those who serve other gods besides Him; but He will forgive whom He will for other sins. He that serves other gods besides God is guilty of a heinous sin. . . . Consider those to whom a portion of the Scriptures was given. They believe in idols and false gods and say of the infidels: ?These are better guided than the believers?? (4:50?51). ?Those that deny Our revelation We will burn in fire. No sooner will their skins be consumed than We shall give them other skins, so that they may truly taste the scourge. God is mighty and wise? (4:55?56).?Believers, do not seek the friendship of the infidels and those who were given the Book before you, who have made of your religion a jest and a pastime? (5:57). ?That which is revealed to you from your Lord will surely increase the wickedness and unbelief of many among them. We have stirred among them enmity and hatred, which will endure till the Day of Resurrection? (5:65). ?God does not guide the unbelievers? (5:67). ?That which is revealed to you from your Lord will surely increase the wickedness and unbelief of many among them. But do not grieve for the unbelievers? (5:69). ?You see many among them making friends with unbelievers. Evil is that to which their souls prompt them. They have incurred the wrath of God and shall endure eternal torment. . . . You will find that the most implacable of men in their enmity to the faithful are the Jews and the pagans, and that the nearest in affection to them are those who say: ?We are Christians?? (5:80?82). ?[T]hose that disbelieve and deny Our revelations shall become the inmates of Hell? (5:86)."?[T]hey deny the truth when it is declared to them: but they shall learn the consequences of their scorn? (6:5). ?We had made them more powerful in the land than yourselves [the Meccans], sent down for them abundant water from the sky and gave them rivers that rolled at their feet. Yet because they sinned We destroyed them all and raised up other generations after them. If We sent down to you a Book inscribed on real parchment and they touched it with their own hands, the unbelievers would still assert: ?This is but plain sorcery.? They ask: ?Why has no angel been sent down to him [Muhammad]?? If We had sent down an angel, their fate would have been sealed and they would have never been reprieved? (6:5?8). ?Who is more wicked than the man who invents falsehoods about God or denies His revelations?? (6:21). ?Some of them listen to you. But We have cast veils over their hearts and made them hard of hearing lest they understand your words. They will believe in none of Our signs, even if they see them one and all. When they come to argue with you the unbelievers say: ?This is nothing but old fictitious tales.? They forbid it and depart from it. They ruin none but themselves, though they do not perceive it. If you could see them when they are set before the Fire! They will say: ?Would that we could return! Then we would not deny the revelations of our Lord and would be true believers? (6:23?27). ?But if they were sent back, they would return to that which they have been forbidden. They are liars all? (6:29). ?Had God pleased He would have given them guidance, one and all? (6:35). ?Deaf and dumb are those that deny Our revelations: they blunder about in darkness. God confounds whom He will, and guides to a straight path whom He pleases.? (6:39) ?[T]heir hearts were hardened, and Satan made their deeds seem fair to them. And when they had clean forgotten Our admonition We granted them all that they desired; but just as they were rejoicing in what they were given, We suddenly smote them and they were plunged into utter despair. Thus were the evil-doers annihilated. Praise be to God, Lord of the Universe!? (6:43?45). ?[T]hose that deny Our revelations shall be punished for their misdeeds? (6:49)." ?Such are those that are damned by their own sins. They shall drink scalding water and be sternly punished for their unbelief? (6:70). ?Could you but see the wrongdoers when death overwhelms them! With hands out-stretched, the angels will say: ?Yield up your souls. You shall be rewarded with the scourge of shame this day, for you have said of God what is untrue and scorned His revelations? (6:93). ?Avoid the pagans. Had God pleased, they would not have worshipped idols. . . . We will turn away their hearts and eyes from the Truth since they refused to believe in it at first. We will let them blunder about in their wrongdoing. If We sent the angels down to them, and caused the dead to speak to them, . . . and ranged all things in front of them, they would still not believe, unless God willed otherwise. . . . Thus have We assigned for every prophet an enemy: the devils among men and jinn, who inspire each other with vain and varnished false- hoods. But had your Lord pleased, they would not have done so. Therefore leave them to their own inventions, so that the hearts of those who have no faith in the life to come may be inclined to what they say and, being pleased, persist in their sinful ways? (6:107?12). ?The devils will teach their votaries to argue with you. If you obey them you shall yourselves become idolaters. . . . God will humiliate the transgressors and mete out to them a grievous punishment for their scheming? (6:121?25). ?If God wills to guide a man, He opens his bosom to Islam. But if he pleases to confound him, He makes his bosom small and narrow as though he were climbing up to heaven. Thus shall God lay the scourge on the unbelievers? (6:125)."* " Yes, the Bible contains its own sadistic lunacy?but the above quotations can be fairly said to convey the central message of the Qur?an?and of Islam at nearly every moment in its history. The Qur?an does not contain anything like a Sermon on the Mount. Nor is it a vast and self-contradictory book like the Old Testament, in which whole sections (like Leviticus and Deuteronomy) can be easily ignored and forgotten. The result is a unified message of triumphalism, otherworldliness, and religious hatred that has become a problem for the entire world. And the world still waits for moderate Muslims to speak honestly about it." John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Mon Jul 21 17:07:13 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 10:07:13 -0700 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <020b01cfa506$37fa2180$a7ee6480$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of BillK ... >... If you found the document under a broken down car, covered in oily fingerprints, then you might guess it had something to do with car repair. :)...BillK _______________________________________________ That's the pessimist's view BillK. If the oily document is found beneath a broken down car, then the information found therein was insufficient to allow the person whose fingerprints were found to repair the conveyance. In that sense the document was useless or unsuccessful. Consider now the point of view of one who views BillW's half glass as full: the oily document is so interesting, the reader was focused on that instead of keeping the family car in good repair. When resulting breakdown occurred, she was so engrossed in the study of that document, that she couldn't even put it down long enough to fix the car, so she had the reading material in one oily hand, while simultaneously attempting to repair the conveyance with the other. So exciting were the materials she fainted, at which time the book fell from her limp hand, the paramedics took her away to the local hospital, the car remained in disrepair and the reading material on the ground. That must be a very interesting book. spike From painlord2k at libero.it Mon Jul 21 17:55:09 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 19:55:09 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> <53CC401F.20905@libero.it> Message-ID: <53CD53FD.6020209@libero.it> Il 21/07/2014 17:57, John Clark ha scritto: > > On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 6:18 PM, Mirco Romanato > wrote: > > I would say most Christians try to follow the Bible: > So do Christians stone to death their neighbor if they notice that > they're working on the Sabbath as the Bible commands them to do? Not without a trial. And this is the greater penalty possible, not the minimum allowed. "There is some question as to whether the death penalty was invariably or even usually implemented in ancient Israel, or whether this was even the intention of the Tanakh (c.f. Numbers 35:31). "It must be noted that the death penalty might also indicate the seriousness of the crime without calling for the actual implementation of it in every case. In fact, there is little evidence that many of these sanctions were ever actually carried out in ancient Israel. Only in the case of premeditated murder was there the added stricture of 'Do not accept a ransom for the life of the murderer who deserves to die' (Num 35:31). . . . Traditional wisdom, both in the Jewish and Christian communities, interpreted this verse in Numbers 35:31 to mean that out of the almost twenty cases calling for capital punishment in the Old Testament, every one of them could have the sanction commuted by an appropriate substitute of money or anything that showed the seriousness of the crime, but in the case of what we today call first-degree murder, there was never to be offered or accepted any substitute or bargaining of any kind: the offender had to pay with his or her life".[26] It is also of note that the Bible required at least two or three witnesses to convict someone of a crime, so executions would be rare under such a strict requirement. [27]" > Do > Christians murder their children if they talk back to them as the Bible > advises them to do? They had not the right to kill their sons or daughters themselves, just to bring them in front of a Sanhedrin to be judged. And the Sanhedrin would give out some less serious penalty or nothing at all. > Of course they don't! Instead Christians use their > own moral compass (that has nothing to do with religion) and cherry pick > that vastly overrated book. Christians and talk about some nice > quotations that are in the Bible and just ignore the many that are > stupid, psychopathic or just plain evil. Modern Christians may say that > they believe every work in the Bible but they most certainly do not > behave as if they did. Unfortunately most Muslims DO behave as if they > believed every word in the Quran. They believe every word and cherry pick what is most convenient to them at the time. Mirco From spike66 at att.net Mon Jul 21 17:44:18 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 10:44:18 -0700 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: <1499029331-31047@secure.ericade.net> References: <1499029331-31047@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <022901cfa50b$663a8c10$32afa430$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg ?>>?I am not convinced. A completely new language, not akin to Indo European or anything else, is just a jumble of meaningless letters without a key.? ?>>?How could you figure out the context? It could be a car manual or poems on death for all you know. >?Have you looked at elementary cryptoanalysis, like cracking substitution cyphers? Once you see statistical regularities you can start deducing a lot of things if you are clever. And human languages do have a fairly complex statistical structure - Zipf laws, entropy distributions, recursion etc. You can of course invent something utterly dissimilar (just check out some of the really weird conlangs like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C4%93len), but then using it becomes extremely hard. If "The enemy is attacking by air on tuesday" has to be expressed as a superposition of emotion-states with no nouns and spelling looking like cartoon swearing, then usage will be weak. Even Klingon is just a lot of unusual options found in human languages strung together to make a kind of linguist-in-joke (and even linguists find it hard to learn to use), but still likely very decypherable to a motivated opponent. Anders Sandberg? The letter for letter encryption carries a number of assumptions that might not apply to languages which predated the notion of a small set of characters each representing a sound. That development was the breakthrough which enabled practical modern written languages. Some languages predate that notion, such as Mandarin and the other Asian languages, resulting in their having a hell of a time porting over to a keyboard. The Rosetta stone unlocked those earlier languages. Consider an alternative, where you collect your single syllable words, such as sun, sea, ball, and foot, then derive simplified symbols for them. (English has about 6000 single syllable words, or about 3k if you eliminate homonyms.) Then the person who knows the spoken language could understand this: http://www.clker.com/cliparts/z/D/0/I/i/n/pink-l-foot-hi.png http://hakeme.com/images/tutorials/3283/head-1.jpg http://www.freevector.com/site_media/preview_images/FreeVector-Sea-Water.jpg http://images.clipartpanda.com/clipart-sun-sun2.jpg I am told that Asian symbolic languages kinda sorta did something like this, but now that approach is at a dead end for so many reasons. It is really interesting to hear the perspective of the local Vietnamese and Chinese kids struggling to learn Mandarin, kids who grew up in Mandarin-speaking homes. They often give up in frustration after years of diligent effort, long after they have successfully mastered English. Anders? deciphering notion assumes the language post-dates the invention of letting symbols represent consonants and vowels rather than syllables. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image003.png Type: application/octet-stream Size: 6017 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image005.jpg Type: application/octet-stream Size: 1352 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image007.jpg Type: application/octet-stream Size: 1698 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image012.jpg Type: application/octet-stream Size: 2619 bytes Desc: not available URL: From steinberg.will at gmail.com Mon Jul 21 18:51:55 2014 From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 13:51:55 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: <53CD53FD.6020209@libero.it> References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> <53CC401F.20905@libero.it> <53CD53FD.6020209@libero.it> Message-ID: I know it's older, John, I was saying why would you expect an older language to change more than a newer language? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Mon Jul 21 21:03:40 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 14:03:40 -0700 Subject: [ExI] what are the chances? Message-ID: <02aa01cfa527$402f6830$c08e3890$@att.net> Hey just because we are watching the last tattered remains of our freedom being shredded does not mean we can't still have a little fun: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KohtsEmWY2w spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: ~WRD000.jpg Type: application/octet-stream Size: 823 bytes Desc: not available URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Mon Jul 21 22:45:59 2014 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 15:45:59 -0700 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 130, Issue 25 Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 21, 2014 at 10:55 AM, Brian Manning Delaney wrote: > El 2014-05-31 01:05, Anders Sandberg escribi?: > > [...] > >> This would have been amusing, except I actually encounter people who get >> terribly upset when I mention climate change is unlikely to be an >> existential risk. Just check out some of the reactions in the comments: >> https://theconversation.com/the-five-biggest-threats-to-human-existence-27053 I sampled a few pages of them. Sad. > Was at a get-together with some philosophers here in Stockholm -- a > mixture of (so-called...) analytic philosophers from Stockholm > University and Continental philosophers from S?dert?rn University, and > lo and behold, a heated discussion of Anders' just-(re-)published > Guardian article arose. Good to see academic types -- esp. those who > typically focus on Hegel and Heidegger & co. -- taking up these issues. > The article seemed deftly designed to pose the important questions > without getting into realms, or using terms (like "singularity"), that > can come across as flaky. It mentioned both AI and nanotechnology. Those are the two essential elements of the singularity. Anders, I have given some thought to "the great filter." http://hplusmagazine.com/2012/04/12/transhumanism-and-the-human-expansion-into-space-a-conflict-with-physics/ Unless we find a way around the speed of light, then the granular nature of matter tells us we can put computational elements into a volume based on r^3. (Because of cooling, it may be closer to r^2.) But a brain based on such elements will have a thinking rate no better than the time it takes light to cross the diameter of 2 r. I suspect that if humans were magically transported to a planet where an intelligent species arose, what we might find is the uploaded lot of them sunk in a deep cold ocean and thinking at a million times the rate of biological creatures. But if the cosmic filter is 100% effective, we will never go there. Such a future would profoundly change us, but it would not necessarily be the end of the race, though a 100% upload would leave no breeding population. Keith From listsb at infinitefaculty.org Tue Jul 22 07:49:39 2014 From: listsb at infinitefaculty.org (Brian Manning Delaney) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 09:49:39 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Slowly moving important questions into the mainstream [Was: new names] In-Reply-To: <1499543771-31054@secure.ericade.net> References: <1499543771-31054@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <53CE1793.3070105@infinitefaculty.org> El 2014-07-21 16:46, Anders Sandberg escribi?: > Brian Manning Delaney , 21/7/2014 3:50 PM: > Any useful comments? Alas, no, nothing we haven't heard before. But at least there WAS a discussion. Given time, it should evolve into something interesting. > The role of the philosopher is still fundamentally Socratic in my view: > getting people to question what they think they know. So, Socratically > well done, Anders! > > > Thanks! Now I better check my food for hemlock :-) Indeed! Plenty of city (academy) elders will be feeling nervous and threatened! Brian From pharos at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 10:16:51 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 11:16:51 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Tunnels In-Reply-To: <033b01cfa43c$acef2320$06cd6960$@att.net> References: <201407200035.s6K0ZD1r001562@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <033b01cfa43c$acef2320$06cd6960$@att.net> Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 6:04 PM, spike wrote: > The whole notion of a tunnel is a gift to Israel. The Presbyterians > surrounding Israel fire cheap unguided rockets by the dozens into Israel who > respond by firing expensive high-tech guided missiles to take out their > cheap missiles. (Remember all that debate we had here about THAAD? Where > are the nay-sayers now that they are saving lives?) In the long run, the > Episcopalians win that battle, even if no one perishes: they spend millions > attacking, Israel spends billions defending. > > There is an analysis out that claims that the Israel Iron Dome system is virtually useless. What saves Israel lives is the warning system and underground shelters (and the fact that the Hamas rockets have pretty small warheads). Iron Dome does have propaganda value, in that it tells the population that their government is trying hard yo defend them. Much like as in WWII the British installed lots of anti-aircraft guns which rarely, if ever, hit anything. But made people feel better. See: BillK From pharos at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 10:57:18 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 11:57:18 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Intelligence Unbound! Message-ID: Another new book published in UK (Aug 18 for USA). Intelligence Unbound: The Future of Uploaded and Machine Minds Russell Blackford (Editor), Damien Broderick (Editor) Contains chapters by many well-known names, Max, Natasha, Anders, Robin, etc. Quote: Someday in the not-too-distant future, the greatest minds on Earth might be intelligent machines - conventional or quantum logic programs running on immensely powerful and ever smaller computers. But can human minds bound by biology possibly keep up? And will such artificial or enhanced minds turn against humanity, or will they join us in the search for deeper understanding and meaning? Might our own minds be uploaded into "machines of loving grace" - albeit ones working at the speed of light? These provocative questions are addressed in Intelligence Unbound, a collection of state-of-the-art essays that explore the prospects, promises, and potential dangers of machine intelligence and uploaded minds. ---------- BillK From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 13:42:42 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 09:42:42 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: <53CD53FD.6020209@libero.it> References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> <53CC401F.20905@libero.it> <53CD53FD.6020209@libero.it> Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 21, 2014 at 1:55 PM, Mirco Romanato wrote: > >> So do Christians stone to death their neighbor if they notice that >> they're working on the Sabbath as the Bible commands them to do? >> > > > Not without a trial. And this is the greater penalty possible, not the > minimum allowed. > *"You shall keep the Sabbath, because it is holy for you. Everyone who profanes it shall be put to death. Whoever does any work on it, that soul shall be cut off from among his people. Six days shall work be done, but the seventh day is a Sabbath of solemn rest, holy to the Lord. Whoever does any work on the Sabbath day shall be put to death." * [Exodus 31:12-15] > >> Do Christians murder their children if they talk back to them as the >> Bible advises them to do? >> > > > They had not the right to kill their sons or daughters themselves, just > to bring them in front of a Sanhedrin to be judged. "*For every one that curseth his father or his mother shall be surely put to death: he hath cursed his father or his mother; his blood shall be upon him." *[Leviticus 20:9] John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 13:45:00 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 09:45:00 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> <53CC401F.20905@libero.it> <53CD53FD.6020209@libero.it> Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 21, 2014 at 2:51 PM, Will Steinberg wrote: > I know it's older, John, I was saying why would you expect an older > language to change more than a newer language? > Do I really need to answer that? John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 14:01:17 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 15:01:17 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> <53CC401F.20905@libero.it> <53CD53FD.6020209@libero.it> Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 22, 2014 at 2:42 PM, John Clark wrote: > "For every one that curseth his father or his mother shall be surely put to > death: he hath cursed his father or his mother; his blood shall be upon > him." [Leviticus 20:9] > > John We all know that these ancient religious books are full of nonsense. And it is trivially easy to quote ridiculous verses, especially when ignoring context and what actually happens in the real world. In this particular case, the Jewish meforshim point out that this 'law' can never be enforced. And never has been enforced. Quote: 1) A child under the age of thirteen years and one day cannot be held liable for a sin - especially one with a death penalty and thus cannot be found guilty of a death penalty offence. 2) A man over the age of thirteen while having to honour their parents- they are no longer considered a child that can fulfill this law. If you look it says ????? ?????- why the repetition of ????? ? It teaches that a man over the age of thirteen years and one day is exempt as they are considered an ISh (man) rather than a ben (son). ---------------- The intent is to reinforce how important it is to honour our parents. (especially in an ancient tribal society, where life was a struggle). BillK From spike66 at att.net Tue Jul 22 13:59:45 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 06:59:45 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Tunnels In-Reply-To: References: <201407200035.s6K0ZD1r001562@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <033b01cfa43c$acef2320$06cd6960$@att.net> Message-ID: <01cc01cfa5b5$323c7400$96b55c00$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of BillK Subject: Re: [ExI] Tunnels On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 6:04 PM, spike wrote: > The whole notion of a tunnel is a gift to Israel. The Presbyterians > surrounding Israel fire cheap unguided rockets by the dozens into > Israel who respond by firing expensive high-tech guided missiles to > take out their cheap missiles. (Remember all that debate we had here > about THAAD? Where are the nay-sayers now that they are saving > lives?) In the long run, the Episcopalians win that battle, even if > no one perishes: they spend millions attacking, Israel spends billions defending. There is an analysis out that claims that the Israel Iron Dome system is virtually useless. What saves Israel lives is the warning system and underground shelters (and the fact that the Hamas rockets have pretty small warheads). Iron Dome does have propaganda value, in that it tells the population that their government is trying hard yo defend them. Much like as in WWII the British installed lots of anti-aircraft guns which rarely, if ever, hit anything. But made people feel better. See: BillK _______________________________________________ Hi BillK, I saw a couple things wrong with the article. If an Iron Dome missile is fired against an incoming missile, there is a high chance the shot will be diverted after it is fired. Reasoning: radar picks up the missile during boost phase, then as soon as the motor burns out and the weapon enters the coast phase, a circle of equal probability (CEP) can be calculated, which is the area on the ground the missile is likely to strike. The Israelis have a value map; they decide if the target area is worth a response. As I understand it, most of the missiles are not worth a response. If the value-map indicates high-value targets within the CEP, at some point in the coast phase an antiballistic missile (ABM) must be fired. During the upward flight of an ABM, the CEP is in the process of shrinking, since more radar readings are made from a closer source. If the CEP shrinks down to an expendable area during the upward flight of the ABM, then the ABM is called off. Reasoning: if you hit a missile which is coming down in a harmless area and it is hit by an ABM, it might go off into an area which is harmful. Alternately a missile exploded over a high value area might cause more damage than letting it explode on the ground, since it would scatter shrapnel. So the strategy in many cases after an ABM is fired is to disengage the countermeasure and let it hit. By Postol's analysis, this would be scored as a failure, since the contrails would cross. Another problem I saw is that the conclusions are based on contrail analysis that fails to distinguish between types of outgoing missiles. Some of the outgoing missiles might not be Iron Dome ABMs but rather countermeasures which follow contrails back to their source. A contrail makes an excellent targeting mechanism, and it works even better at night, since the ground is cooler, making the still-warm rocket launcher show up cherry red in IR. Any missile which follows a contrail back to its source is way cheap compared to a body-on-body countermeasure. I had a notion on how the Palestinian government could defend itself. They would arm the civilian population with ordinary low-cost rifles and night-vision goggles. The locals soon observe that every time a rocket is fired from their neighborhood, pretty soon return fire starts coming in. The portion of the populace unwilling to be human shields would fire upon anyone they witness setting up a rocket launcher. Those launching the rockets want to attract return fire into populated areas for PR value, but the locals might have other opinions on the matter. spike From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 14:26:35 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 09:26:35 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Intelligence Unbound! In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: ?If AI machines get smarter than us, how will we know? bill w? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 14:31:49 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 15:31:49 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Intelligence Unbound! In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 22, 2014 at 3:26 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > If AI machines get smarter than us, how will we know? bill w > > They'll tell us. "You do realise that you are about to do a very stupid thing, don't you"? Think of them as a hyper-critical wife. :) BillK From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 15:01:18 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 10:01:18 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Intelligence Unbound! In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 22, 2014 at 9:31 AM, BillK wrote: > On Tue, Jul 22, 2014 at 3:26 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > > If AI machines get smarter than us, how will we know? bill w > > > > > > They'll tell us. > "You do realise that you are about to do a very stupid thing, don't you"? > Think of them as a hyper-critical wife. :) > > > BillK > ?Why should we believe them?? ?If they are much smarter it follows that we will not be able to understand their reasoning any more than I can follow debates in quantum physics. bill w? > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 15:18:09 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 16:18:09 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Intelligence Unbound! In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 22, 2014 at 4:01 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > Why should we believe them? > > If they are much smarter it follows that we will not be able to understand > their reasoning any more than I can follow debates in quantum physics. bill > w Doesn't matter. Reasoning almost never convinces humans not to do stupid things. Humans are notorious for rejecting good advice. Humans are driven by emotions. They do what they 'want' to do, even without understanding why they want to do it. They are pretty good at thinking up so-called reasons though, especially afterwards when they try to justify what turned out to be ridiculous behaviour. Though if a few people do start taking advice from their friendly AI, they will probably turn out to be quite successful. (But still jealous of all those misbehavin' ordinary humans). :) BillK From atymes at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 15:27:03 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 08:27:03 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Tunnels In-Reply-To: <01cc01cfa5b5$323c7400$96b55c00$@att.net> References: <201407200035.s6K0ZD1r001562@andromeda.ziaspace.com> <033b01cfa43c$acef2320$06cd6960$@att.net> <01cc01cfa5b5$323c7400$96b55c00$@att.net> Message-ID: On Jul 22, 2014 7:15 AM, "spike" wrote: > I had a notion on how the Palestinian government could defend itself. They > would arm the civilian population with ordinary low-cost rifles and > night-vision goggles. The locals soon observe that every time a rocket is > fired from their neighborhood, pretty soon return fire starts coming in. > The portion of the populace unwilling to be human shields would fire upon > anyone they witness setting up a rocket launcher. Those launching the > rockets want to attract return fire into populated areas for PR value, but > the locals might have other opinions on the matter. A number of them already have rifles, and it doesn't take night vision to target someone next to you who just fired a rocket. And yet, despite knowing return fire may be coming, they can't be added to protest the firers, let alone shoot them. They just wait and then get surprised when Israeli return fire arrives. The weak link is in the relative lack of Palestinian civil society. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Jul 22 15:13:50 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 08:13:50 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Intelligence Unbound! In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <025301cfa5bf$8bcbce80$a3636b80$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of BillK Subject: Re: [ExI] Intelligence Unbound! On Tue, Jul 22, 2014 at 3:26 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: >>... If AI machines get smarter than us, how will we know? bill w >...They'll tell us. "You do realise that you are about to do a very stupid thing, don't you"? Think of them as a hyper-critical wife. :) BillK _______________________________________________ I prefer to think of them as a hyper-critical wife with an off switch. {8-] spike From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 17:46:56 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 13:46:56 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> <53CC401F.20905@libero.it> <53CD53FD.6020209@libero.it> Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 22, 2014 at 10:01 AM, BillK wrote: > > We all know that these ancient religious books are full of nonsense. > Indeed. > And it is trivially easy to quote ridiculous verses, Absolutely true. > especially when ignoring context and what actually happens in the real > world. > If so then even the ancients knew that their sacred book was full of nonsense, which is more than I can say about some modern religious leaders. The intent is to reinforce how important it is to honour our parents. > (especially in an ancient tribal society, where life was a struggle). Nice try but there is not enough spin in the observable universe to make certain revolting passages in the most holy and perfect book ever written acceptable. John K Clark > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 18:22:13 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 13:22:13 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Intelligence Unbound! In-Reply-To: <025301cfa5bf$8bcbce80$a3636b80$@att.net> References: <025301cfa5bf$8bcbce80$a3636b80$@att.net> Message-ID: ?Reasoning almost never convinces humans not to do stupid things. Humans are notorious for rejecting good advice. Humans are driven by emotions. They do what they 'want' to do, even without understanding why they want to do it. They are pretty good at thinking up so-called reasons though, especially afterwards when they try to justify what turned out to be ridiculous behaviour. As a psychologist I can only agree though obviously such cannot apply to me. However, we still have not come to a conclusion about how to tell if the AI's advice is any good. Nothing and no one is perfect. Any good advice is a plan for action, so we could scientifically test the AI's advice to see if it really works out in reality - that sort of thing. I can't see following any advice I can't understand or test. Here I am assuming that I am the next step down from the AI. bill w ? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Tue Jul 22 18:46:19 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 20:46:19 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> <53CC401F.20905@libero.it> <53CD53FD.6020209@libero.it> Message-ID: <53CEB17B.3020205@libero.it> Il 22/07/2014 15:42, John Clark ha scritto: > On Mon, Jul 21, 2014 at 1:55 PM, Mirco Romanato > wrote: > > They had not the right to kill their sons or daughters > > themselves, just to bring them in front of a Sanhedrin to be judged. > "/For every one that curseth his father or his mother shall be surely > put to death: he hath cursed his father or his mother; his blood shall > be upon him." /[Leviticus 20:9] John, in the books, in Italy, there is there is the possibility to go in jail for life for some crimes. Do you know how many people really do life and never get out of jail? Practically no one, because there is a lot of additional rules to reduce sentences if they behave, get them out earlier, let them work outside the prison and so on. The same is with the actual implementation of Jewish Law in the past. If not, please, how many people were actually killed in the past because they committed these "crimes". If they were many, surely the dead would be recorded. In fact, the only person recorded, in the Bible, to be killed for breaking the Sabbath was sentenced to death directly by God himself. Now, when is the last time God judged in a trial? Mirco From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 18:49:52 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 13:49:52 -0500 Subject: [ExI] unconscious Message-ID: When I do a crossword puzzle I seem to 'hear' my unconscious trying to tell me something and if I get the right mind set it will pop up into consciousness. I do not have to make an effort to pull it up. If you do crosswords do you have the same feelings? When I go searching for a memory and don't immediately get it, it may pop up a bit later without any effort. Do you go digging in your memory or does it seem to come out from within, as if being pushed. Pull or push? ? I'd appreciate your feedback on this.? Now we think of our thinking as all consciousness, but I think the unconscious is thinking too but we don't know that (because it is unconscious, duh). Haidt, Kahnemann and others have warmed up Freud with their analogies of the elephant and the rider, etc. We conclude from them that most of what goes ?on ? in our thinking department is unconscious. Many people on this chat list seem deeply concerned that our intelligence in the future must be higher, as high as possible. I wonder if simply raising IQ through gengineering will do. I propose that what we could work on is getting deeper and deeper into our unconscious by making more and more of it conscious. ?(Through gengineering, certainly not psychoanalysis or any other such thing.) ? We know that the conscious, the rider, often jumps at conclusions, stereotypes and more, all to get as quick an answer as possible, and thus makes a lot of simple mistakes that presumably we would not make if we tapped into the unconscious ?, such as judging people by a first and short impression? . When I wake up in the morning I keep my eyes closed and sometimes go back to sleep but often just wait a few minutes before getting up. Now I have noticed that the moment I get up is not really planned (like "I am getting up on the count of 3.") My body moves out of bed in at unpredictable time. I am a bit surprised, that is, to find myself moving. See if this happens to you. If it does then I say that our unconscious is moving us out of bed for reasons of its own, such as the conscious thought of coffee, in my case. ? (Yeah, bladder too.) A lot of what we do is not conscious and so we often don't know what we are thinking or going to do until we think or do it.? I think a lot of cognitive biases could be fixed by making much of the unconscious conscious, and we would end up being much more intelligent than our IQ could account for. ?We will never be able to catch up to the computers in sheer speed. Making quantum leaps in creativity, however, is our bag and never will be theirs. bill w ? bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 18:56:55 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 13:56:55 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: <53CEB17B.3020205@libero.it> References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> <53CC401F.20905@libero.it> <53CD53FD.6020209@libero.it> <53CEB17B.3020205@libero.it> Message-ID: ?To me, this whole religious discussion boils down to this: there are always going to be some people in any religion who will take things extremely literally, whether they be Muslims or Baptists. This is the level they can understand. Many people of average intelligence do not do well with metaphors. Literalists tend not to pick and choose but be rather obsessive about following the literal passages. I have no earthly idea how to change these people except by kicking them out of the gene pool, done by future geneticists. I think all of the ancient Hebrew writings were moral fables on the level of Aesop.? ? Solomon, for instance, was just as much of a made-up character as the fox or the hare.? ?bill w? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 19:14:59 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 14:14:59 -0500 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BRe=3A_possible_scheme_for_privacy?= In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: ?Should we strive for a world where there's a layer that allows complete privacy and anonymity and freedom to access any content we want or should we instead strive for a society where nothing's hidden, not even our thoughts and everything's freely accessed? It would promote honesty and make criminal thoughts or activities harder to commit but at the same time the idea of losing all privacy seems unappealing. What are extropians thoughts on the matter? I'm curious. >From Bill W: I would favor no privacy at all, but I think I'd be in the minority. I have done things, mainly as a teen, that I am ashamed of, but can talk about them with anyone who could put those things in context. It would take a major change in those of Victorian moralities to give up privacy. If they liked crossdressing, for instance, I'll bet they want very few people to know. Is a bit of larceny built into all of us? Yes. And those who steal (yes, Spike, including those who try to rip off the IRS - not you of course) will value privacy. Then there are just some of us who are ashamed of being an animal with animal's needs. Diseases of excretory and sexual functions are common but most people hide them. Nothing to be ashamed of I say, but then I am different, though even I would not go there on a first date. ? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Jul 22 21:03:11 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 14:03:11 -0700 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BRe=3A_possible_scheme_for_privacy?= In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <017a01cfa5f0$5950df00$0bf29d00$@att.net> >? On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace Subject: Re: [ExI] ?Re: possible scheme for privacy ? >?Is a bit of larceny built into all of us? Yes. And those who steal (yes, Spike, including those who try to rip off the IRS - not you of course) will value privacy. BillW, I am not a particularly a privacy advocate, in fact I lean toward openness. But I am an openness fanatic when it comes to government employees. Government jobs carry the risk of enormous power, which always results in you-know-what. So I would propose that all government bureaucrats? email communications, twitter tweets, instant messaging, e-chat, radio, telephone, handwritten notes, smoke signals and subtle facial gestures, all of it be made public domain. The light would shine like a laser, and it would result in the most transparent administration in history. People ripping off the IRS is a problem. The IRS ripping off people is a bigger problem. Openness is the solution. spike? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 22 23:00:21 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 18:00:21 -0500 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BRe=3A_possible_scheme_for_privacy?= In-Reply-To: <017a01cfa5f0$5950df00$0bf29d00$@att.net> References: <017a01cfa5f0$5950df00$0bf29d00$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 22, 2014 at 4:03 PM, spike wrote: > > > > > *>?* *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] ?Re: possible scheme for privacy > > > > ? > > > > >?Is a bit of larceny built into all of us? Yes. And those who steal > (yes, Spike, including those who try to rip off the IRS - not you of > course) will value privacy. > > > > BillW, I am not a particularly a privacy advocate, in fact I lean toward > openness. But I am an openness fanatic when it comes to government > employees. Government jobs carry the risk of enormous power, which always > results in you-know-what. So I would propose that all government > bureaucrats? email communications, twitter tweets, instant messaging, > e-chat, radio, telephone, handwritten notes, smoke signals and subtle > facial gestures, all of it be made public domain. > > The light would shine like a laser, and it would result in the most > transparent administration in history. > > > > People ripping off the IRS is a problem. The IRS ripping off people is a > bigger problem. Openness is the solution. > > > > spike? > ?Yea! and Hear Hear! But, and it's a big but - people will lie, cheat, steal, murder, in order for other people to think of them what they want them to think. Just look at the market for plastic surgery, baldness cures and wigs, where the coverup is blatant. Even very small weaknesses are covered up, increasingly by men as well as women. And if no one had any secrets, what would happen to the main habits, the universal sideline, the obsession of us all: gossip? How much money is made from it? Mega billions. So - it just ain't going to happen.? ?Imagine a male divulging to a potential date, mate, bed partner, that he just loves pornography? Doesn't matter that porn is loved by nearly all the males and they will understand?. We are born and bred liars, every one of us. bill w > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Tue Jul 22 23:18:18 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 01:18:18 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Intelligence Unbound! In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1616239488-12037@secure.ericade.net> William Flynn Wallace??, 22/7/2014 5:05 PM: ?Why should we believe them?????If they are much smarter it follows that we will not be able to understand their reasoning any more than I can follow debates in quantum physics. ? Smart people can sometimes explain complex things clearly. The mental work of understanding a domain may be large, but the resulting theory might actually be simple. In practice it is a matter of trust: when the quantum physicist tells you to use phosphorous as a dopant in your semiconductor or your lawyer says pleading insanity is a bad idea the reasoning might be beyond you, but if they have reliably been right in the past it would be stupid not to follow their advice. The hard situation is when feedback is not forthcoming: if a black box tells me I will have a happier life if I believe in P, I cannot trust its prediction directly since I do not understand why or have evidence that it works. But if it had been right about other people or other questions, it might be rational to follow the advice. Of course, apparently very good advice might still be hiding bad advice:http://lesswrong.com/lw/jao/siren_worlds_and_the_perils_of_overoptimised/ Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Jul 22 23:21:53 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 16:21:53 -0700 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BRe=3A_possible_scheme_for_privacy?= In-Reply-To: References: <017a01cfa5f0$5950df00$0bf29d00$@att.net> Message-ID: <021901cfa603$b9a0ce70$2ce26b50$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace Sent: Tuesday, July 22, 2014 4:00 PM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] ?Re: possible scheme for privacy On Tue, Jul 22, 2014 at 4:03 PM, spike wrote: >? On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace Subject: Re: [ExI] ?Re: possible scheme for privacy >>? So I would propose that all government bureaucrats? email communications, twitter tweets, instant messaging, e-chat, radio, telephone, handwritten notes, smoke signals and subtle facial gestures, all of it be made public domain. >?The light would shine like a laser, and it would result in the most transparent administration in history. >?People ripping off the IRS is a problem. The IRS ripping off people is a bigger problem. Openness is the solution?spike? ?>?Yea! and Hear Hear! But, and it's a big but - people will lie, cheat, steal, murder, in order for other people to think of them what they want them to think?And if no one had any secrets, what would happen to the main habits, the universal sideline, the obsession of us all: gossip? How much money is made from it? Mega billions?We are born and bred liars, every one of us?bill w Of course. What I meant was to make communications within government sufficiently transparent to burn out the corruption. Consider what has happened just today, where the Washington DC-based 4th circuit federal appeals court made the comment regarding the case King vs Burwell: ?Confronted with the Act?s ambiguity, the IRS crafted a rule ensuring the credits? broad availability and furthering the goals of the law. In the face of this permissible construction, we must defer to the IRS Rule.? Ok, now what has happened here? Another court today delivered the opposing opinion, that even if the intent was for the federal government to subsidize all Americans, the language of the law clearly specifies that only those states which set up healthcare exchanges were eligible for federal subsidy. This was intended to compel states to set up their own exchanges. Most states chose to not do that. So now the 4th circuit appeals court has explicitly stated what many of us have come to fear: our nation is being ruled by a bureaucracy that does not answer to the voters, a bureaucracy which loses email conveniently then lies about it, a bureaucracy with unaccountable and unlimited power utterly without constitutional checks and balances, a bureaucracy which recently had a director who has been found in contempt of congress, who has lied under oath and who has invoked her fifth amendment rights. A federal level appeals court has said we must defer to the IRS Rule. The IRS is allowed privacy; you and I are not. If this is allowed to stand, congress is irrelevant: we are being ruled by whim of the IRS. Goodbye constitution, goodbye freedom. Americans, we fought a terrible war to end slavery, only to be enslaved by our own government. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Jul 23 00:12:52 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 19:12:52 -0500 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BRe=3A_possible_scheme_for_privacy?= In-Reply-To: <021901cfa603$b9a0ce70$2ce26b50$@att.net> References: <017a01cfa5f0$5950df00$0bf29d00$@att.net> <021901cfa603$b9a0ce70$2ce26b50$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 22, 2014 at 6:21 PM, spike wrote: > > > > > *From:* extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto: > extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On Behalf Of *William Flynn > Wallace > *Sent:* Tuesday, July 22, 2014 4:00 PM > *To:* ExI chat list > > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] ?Re: possible scheme for privacy > > > > > > > > On Tue, Jul 22, 2014 at 4:03 PM, spike wrote: > > > > > > *>?* *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] ?Re: possible scheme for privacy > > >>? So I would propose that all government bureaucrats? email > communications, twitter tweets, instant messaging, e-chat, radio, > telephone, handwritten notes, smoke signals and subtle facial gestures, all > of it be made public domain. > > >?The light would shine like a laser, and it would result in the most > transparent administration in history. > > >?People ripping off the IRS is a problem. The IRS ripping off people is > a bigger problem. Openness is the solution?spike? > > > > ?>?Yea! and Hear Hear! But, and it's a big but - people will lie, > cheat, steal, murder, in order for other people to think of them what they > want them to think?And if no one had any secrets, what would happen to > the main habits, the universal sideline, the obsession of us all: gossip? > How much money is made from it? Mega billions?We are born and bred > liars, every one of us?bill w > > Of course. What I meant was to make communications within government > sufficiently transparent to burn out the corruption. Consider what has > happened just today, where the Washington DC-based 4th circuit federal > appeals court made the comment regarding the case King vs Burwell: > > ?Confronted with the Act?s ambiguity, the IRS crafted a rule ensuring the > credits? broad availability and furthering the goals of the law. In the > face of this permissible construction, we must defer to the IRS Rule.? > > Ok, now what has happened here? Another court today delivered the > opposing opinion, that even if the intent was for the federal government to > subsidize all Americans, the language of the law clearly specifies that > only those states which set up healthcare exchanges were eligible for > federal subsidy. This was intended to compel states to set up their own > exchanges. Most states chose to not do that. So now the 4th circuit > appeals court has explicitly stated what many of us have come to fear: our > nation is being ruled by a bureaucracy that does not answer to the voters, > a bureaucracy which loses email conveniently then lies about it, a > bureaucracy with unaccountable and unlimited power utterly without > constitutional checks and balances, a bureaucracy which recently had a > director who has been found in contempt of congress, who has lied under > oath and who has invoked her fifth amendment rights. > > A federal level appeals court has said we must defer to the IRS Rule. The > IRS is allowed privacy; you and I are not. If this is allowed to stand, > congress is irrelevant: we are being ruled by whim of the IRS. Goodbye > constitution, goodbye freedom. > > Americans, we fought a terrible war to end slavery, only to be enslaved by > our own government. > > spike > ?All true and somewhat scary, except that Congress is the dog and the IRS and other bureaucracies are the tails. Change the laws. IRS has to follow the laws. Doesn't everybody know that the tax laws are a complete mess? bill w? > > > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Jul 23 05:33:13 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 01:33:13 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Arabs don't read In-Reply-To: References: <53CA6822.3050607@libero.it> <000c01cfa379$3d176f30$b7464d90$@harveynewstrom.com> <001b01cfa432$ac5ba140$0512e3c0$@harveynewstrom.com> <53CC401F.20905@libero.it> Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 21, 2014 at 11:57 AM, John Clark wrote: Unfortunately most Muslims DO behave as if they believed every word in the > Quran. > ### I know a lot of Muslims personally. They drink alcohol, sleep around with infidels, use credit cards and loans, never pray during the day, cheat on Ramadan. Also, many tend be very nice and honest to non-Muslims. This may be just an anecdote but I doubt it. All around the world most nominally religious people cherry pick what injunctions of their holy books to follow on any given day. I think that the problem with some Muslims is that they are much more likely to come from societies practicing cousin marriage, compared to people of Han, Japanese, or European descent, regardless of their religions. This may result in genetic and cultural adaptations, including a lower tendency towards universalist moral thinking, and a higher level of asabiyah. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Jul 23 06:09:43 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 02:09:43 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria Message-ID: > > > > > El 2014-05-31 01:05, Anders Sandberg escribi?: > > > > [...] > > > >> This would have been amusing, except I actually encounter people who get > >> terribly upset when I mention climate change is unlikely to be an > >> existential risk. Just check out some of the reactions in the comments: > >> > https://theconversation.com/the-five-biggest-threats-to-human-existence-27053 ### A couple of months ago SciAm published an article by Michael Mann, of the hockey-stick fame, one of the central players in the global warming pseudoscience industry. The article was a propaganda screed trying to weasel out of admitting that everything that Mann and his ilk claimed to know about climate isn't so, now that we have 20 years of a stark discrepancy between their crazy predictions and the boringly normal reality. This month SciAm published a letter from a reader who more or less berated Mann for not being sufficiently scary in his sky-is-falling predictions. This implies that the journos at SciAm think that the climate hysteric in chief is not hysterical enough. Can you imagine that? The professional crooks who cooked up the global warming story in the first place are now getting yelled at by journalists who popularized the hoax? The public loves a good existential scare story and they won't let anybody pry it out of their crania, come hell or nice weather. This makes me wonder, what *is* a good scare story? Why is the climate change story still so popular in some circles? Strange times. BTW, I don't subscribe to SciAm, I just occasionally buy copies to read on the plane. Just so nobody thinks I am into low-brow literature. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Jul 23 06:23:04 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 02:23:04 -0400 Subject: [ExI] possible scheme for privacy In-Reply-To: <000a01cfa4e6$b936bf80$2ba43e80$@harveynewstrom.com> References: <002701cfa43b$03609240$0a21b6c0$@harveynewstrom.com> <000a01cfa4e6$b936bf80$2ba43e80$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 21, 2014 at 9:21 AM, Harvey Newstrom wrote: > On Monday, July 21, 2014 12:09 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote, > > On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 12:52 PM, Harvey Newstrom wrote: > > > In TOR, a far-reaching entity can monitor a very large number of ISPs > > > and exit nodes to match traffic patterns between the sender (real IP > and > > > encrypted message) and the TOR exit node (fake IP and unencrypted > > > message) to link the real IP with the unencrypted message. Although > TOR is > > > generally safe, there is no way to prevent a big enough monitoring > system > > > from catching everything. > > > (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_(anonymity_network)#cite_note > > > -torproject-fail-both-ends-32) > > > > ### How about using a continuous data stream from all users to cover up > > actual usage pattern? If I am sending and receiving an encrypted one-time > > pad-randomized 1 kb/s 24/7, I can send and receive an arbitrary number of > > text messages without an adversary being able to determine when or what I > > send to or from whom, unless they have the one time pad and full access > to > > the stream of data and access to the nodes routing my data stream, or > they > > have hardware access on my end (i.e. they own me anyway). > > In theory, yes, this would be the perfect answer. However, the devil is > in the details, as usual. > > The problem is the way applications, operating systems, and routers > fragment packets and send them. Even if all users send identical messages > at identical times, their different environments will fragment them into a > different number of packets, and buffer them into different timing > patterns. So the fingerprint of the traffic analysis would still be > variable between different users doing the exact same thing. > > And it's more than just the intended traffic that needs to be made > uniform. The underlying TCP/IP stack on the operating systems and routers > will respond differently to lost packets, resend requests, time-out > duration, dynamic window sizes for throughput, optimizing throughput > speeds, buffer sizes and related delays, etc. To make the traffic look > identical, all users would have to use the exact same hardware, software, > operating systems, TCP/IP stacks, patching levels, router brands, > memory/disk sizes and delays, number of hops in their local network, and > constant unchanging traffic loads on their local networks. To be even more > extreme, there could be differing timing delays or error rates based on > what brand Ethernet cables they use and how far they are from the > electrical wires in each home. There would be no way to make everything > exactly identical. > > Beyond the above items that might be within the user's control, there is > no way all users could obtain the same distance/delay to their local ISP, > or have all ISPs using the same exact same hardware, software, operating > systems, TCP/IP stacks, patching levels, router brands, memory/disk sizes > and delays, number of hops in their local network, and constant unchanging > traffic loads on their metropolitan area networks. The extremely complex > chain of connectivity between each user and their ISP will add traffic > analysis signatures unique to that user, but outside their control, > somewhere between their location and their ISP. > > At first glance, this seems unlikely to be doable by individual users. > Maybe if a whole apartment building or neighborhood block merged their > traffic and tunneled it through a shared VPN, they might be able to mask > individual differences. But then they would be traceable back to that > local group. As long as each person has an individual data stream to their > ISP, they will probably have unique traffic analysis signatures. > > -- > Harvey Newstrom www.HarveyNewstrom.com > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -- Rafal Smigrodzki, MD-PhD Senior Scientist, Gencia Corporation 706 B Forest St. Charlottesville, VA 22903 tel: (434) 295-4800 fax: (434) 295-4951 This electronic message transmission contains information from the biotechnology firm of Gencia Corporation which may be confidential or privileged. The information is intended to be for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you are not the intended recipient, be aware that any disclosure, copying, distribution or use of the contents of this information is prohibited. If you have received this electronic transmission in error, please notify us by telephone (434-295-4800) or by electronic mail (fportell at genciabiotech.com) immediately. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Jul 23 06:50:55 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 02:50:55 -0400 Subject: [ExI] possible scheme for privacy In-Reply-To: <000a01cfa4e6$b936bf80$2ba43e80$@harveynewstrom.com> References: <002701cfa43b$03609240$0a21b6c0$@harveynewstrom.com> <000a01cfa4e6$b936bf80$2ba43e80$@harveynewstrom.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 21, 2014 at 9:21 AM, Harvey Newstrom wrote: > > And it's more than just the intended traffic that needs to be made > uniform. The underlying TCP/IP stack on the operating systems and routers > will respond differently to lost packets, resend requests, time-out > duration, dynamic window sizes for throughput, optimizing throughput > speeds, buffer sizes and related delays, etc. To make the traffic look > identical, all users would have to use the exact same hardware, software, > operating systems, TCP/IP stacks, patching levels, router brands, > memory/disk sizes and delays, number of hops in their local network, and > constant unchanging traffic loads on their local networks. To be even more > extreme, there could be differing timing delays or error rates based on > what brand Ethernet cables they use and how far they are from the > electrical wires in each home. There would be no way to make everything > exactly identical. > > Beyond the above items that might be within the user's control, there is > no way all users could obtain the same distance/delay to their local ISP, > or have all ISPs using the same exact same hardware, software, operating > systems, TCP/IP stacks, patching levels, router brands, memory/disk sizes > and delays, number of hops in their local network, and constant unchanging > traffic loads on their metropolitan area networks. The extremely complex > chain of connectivity between each user and their ISP will add traffic > analysis signatures unique to that user, but outside their control, > somewhere between their location and their ISP. > > At first glance, this seems unlikely to be doable by individual users. > Maybe if a whole apartment building or neighborhood block merged their > traffic and tunneled it through a shared VPN, they might be able to mask > individual differences. But then they would be traceable back to that > local group. As long as each person has an individual data stream to their > ISP, they will probably have unique traffic analysis signatures. > ### Let's think about it more. We are talking about a defense against an attacker who has the ability to intercept data streams between nodes but does not have access to unencrypted contents of the streams. The objective is to prevent the attacker from inferring if text information was sent between arbitrary nodes. A node always sends data to a subset of nodes, at constant rates determined by their role in the network. An end-user may be sending/receiving to 2 - 3 nodes, at a low rate, maybe even as slow as manual typing, since we are talking about hiding ASCII conversations. A router may be constantly sending steady data streams to the same 3000 other nodes. We are not talking about the internet as we know here. The internet was designed for resilience and efficiency, so of course the nodes respond to changing loads and changing topology, and this implies dependence on all those individual properties of nodes and their connections that are hard to control. The network we discuss here is willing to burn a constant amount of bandwidth, so no matter what the users do or don't, each user node sends the same stream to its designated servers, each server sends the same streams to its designated connections. Yes, you can observe the individual characteristic of each connection - its packet loss rate, minor timing differences due to hardware at each end - but you cannot infer if a given data stream contains 100% contraband text, 100% chaff, or anything in between. Or can you? Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bbenzai at yahoo.com Wed Jul 23 07:23:17 2014 From: bbenzai at yahoo.com (Ben) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 08:23:17 +0100 Subject: [ExI] unconscious In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <53CF62E5.3090205@yahoo.com> William Flynn Wallace wrote: >... most of what goes on in our thinking department is unconscious. Of course, by necessity. That's just a consequence of the way our minds work. I suspect that it's a situation analogous to the patterns that sunflower seeds form in the seed-head. If that represents the conscious mind, the rest of the sunflower, and probably a lot of its environment too, represent the unconscious. You can't have the patterns without the rest. > >I propose that what we could work on is getting deeper and deeper into our >unconscious by making more and more of it conscious. I doubt that makes any more sense than trying to make the rest of a sunflower form the same patterns as the seeds. Giving our conscious minds /access/ to our unconscious processes, though, is a different matter. That's probably possible, and may even be a good idea. > >We know that the conscious, the rider, often jumps at conclusions, >stereotypes and more, all to get as quick an answer as possible, and thus >makes a lot of simple mistakes that presumably we would not make if we >tapped into the unconscious How do you think the conscious mind does this 'jumping to conclusions'? These cognitive shortcuts are produced by the unconcious mind. Gut instinct, intuitions, whatever you want to call them, are not products of conscious thinking. >?We will never be able to catch up to the computers in sheer speed. Making >quantum leaps in creativity, however, is our bag and never will be theirs. Why the 'us' and 'them'? We are computers, too. Look at where the word came from. Our current traditional digital computers are just using a different set of mechanisms to process data than the ones our brains use. There must be many other sets, that we haven't yet explored. Some of them should be capable of producing fast, creative, conscious minds, don't you think? (there's also the fact that a Turing Machine is capable in principle of reproducing any data processing mechanism, but that's not something a lot of people like to think about, and isn't really necessary, anyway, I reckon). Ben Zaiboc From anders at aleph.se Wed Jul 23 10:25:53 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 12:25:53 +0200 Subject: [ExI] unconscious In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1655596472-21628@secure.ericade.net> William Flynn Wallace??, 22/7/2014 8:56 PM: I propose that what we could work on is getting deeper and deeper into our unconscious by making more and more of it conscious.? No. Your computer *would* be more powerful if you had a display of all the contents of the memory and could change any of them - except that the huge complexity and amount of trivial low-level operations is overwhelming, and of course much of it moves too fast to be seen without slowing down the whole thing. The same thing is true for the unconscious: having access to the state of your brainstem or early level visual system is not particularly useful for thinking. And your mental representations spread out across your cortex, even if they could be visualized (on a screen or in your minds eye) are a huge, messy network changing while you are trying the operation of understanding some relevant detail of it.? Being conscious of something is like sending a memo to the CEO. Would a company do better if the CEO was told *everything* going on, from the orders at the production line to the gossip in the cafeteria to the interminable legal meeting in room 1203? And would the CEO intervening in the 1203 meeting actually help?? In computer science we drum into students that levels of abstraction are very, very useful: your software (the conscious) should not concern itself with what kind of hardware or operating system it is running on (the unconscious). The reason for this is practical (and has been demonstrated - often painfully - far too many times to count): when you do not have clean separation of levels software becomes buggy, programmers are tempted to use low-level functions that *will* cause trouble, security and portability goes out the window, and it becomes very hard to maintain and understand it. Brains were not designed, so the level separation is not as neat (and yes, this leads to a lot of the above problems). But it makes sense to separate low-level broadly parallel processing from the high-level serial processing.? ?We know that the conscious, the rider, often jumps at conclusions, stereotypes and more, all to get as quick an answer as possible, and thus makes a lot of simple mistakes that presumably we would not make if we tapped into the unconscious??, such as judging people by a first and short impression?. Unfortunately these intuitive jumps only work in some domains. Leon Kass (of the president's bioethics council) famously argued for the "wisdom of repugnance", that intuitive moral disgust was a useful tool for figuring out that cloning, genetic engineering, human enhancement and eating ice-cream in public (sic!) were likely immoral. His mistake was to assume that his intuitions were universal and reliable outside his own social domain; critics quickly pointed out that racists, homophobes or opponents to mixed-race couples also have similar intuitions but few or no ethicists think their reasoning or views are correct. At best intuitions tell us what we and people around us feel, but they do not tell us why or how reliable.? (being able to trace intuitions would also be impractical: my views of ice-cream or sex have been shaped by millions of experiences that subtly changed the weights of my neural networks. Even if I could view those sources rather than being told the network it would be impossible to draw good conscious conclusions from them - the network is in a sense the conclusion, done unconsciously). We have decent intuitions for people - but these intuitions are often biased by unconscious racism too. We are strongly overconfident in the reliability of our lie-detection intuitions, but experiments show that they are not much better than chance. Our intuitions for physics are based on everyday life; at least when doing real engineering and science it would be better to throw them out altogether.? So I think making the unconscious conscious is not the way to higher intelligence. Quite the opposite. We might want more layers! Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Wed Jul 23 10:39:06 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 12:39:06 +0200 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: <03b101cfa444$0680f600$1382e200$@att.net> Message-ID: <1656998515-18188@secure.ericade.net> spike , 20/7/2014 8:14 PM: Harvey this is the kind of power that is intoxicating to any bureaucrat. ?If they know everyone's secrets, every google search everyone ever made, every website everyone ever viewed, that NSA agent has power far beyond anything seen in government to date. ?Forget the threat of an IRS audit or an EPA raid. ?Any subtle threat to reveal all ones secrets will keep the masses in line. ?How could such power ever go without being abused? Exactly. On the other hand, how stable and secure is the blackmail material infrastructure? A few years back a quarrel broke out between the youth wings of a few Swedish political parties. And somebody started throwing embarrassing information around. Of course political parties and even their youth organisations collect stuff like that, as do individual politicians (be the least drunk on the party and snap some photos). The problem was that somebody else retaliated, and suddenly the muck from the opp research and embarrassing photo stashes was flying! The more senior politicos reputedly had to bang quite a lot of heads together to make it stop: this is *not* how you use that stuff, if you want to have a future career - or a trusted system.? Now imagine a deep state with blackmail on *everybody*. That means blackmail on other parts of the deep state. And deep states are rarely unified, brotherly structures where everybody works together for a shared goal - they have politics just like normal states. So the risk here is that either incompetents like the above politicos start throwing things around or a scheme gets out of hand, a deep rift between key fractions turns into MAD, or that somebody gets fed up and leaks. It is instructive to look at Turkey, where the Gulenists have been waging an embarrassing revelation war against Erdogan's circle (previously they helped him oust the *original* military deep state using the same means).? This is why we should become more tolerant: most people do not do things beyond what we can and should tolerate. And if we do not care en masse, then most blackmail becomes worthless. The people who have something to fear are the ones with something to hide... like the masters of deep states.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From protokol2020 at gmail.com Wed Jul 23 11:13:51 2014 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 13:13:51 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: "If you believe in AGW, regardless of reason or data, you are one of us." This is a very clear message of this cult, which encompasses the majority of the self defined elite. On Wed, Jul 23, 2014 at 8:09 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki < rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote: > >> >> > El 2014-05-31 01:05, Anders Sandberg escribi?: >> > >> > [...] >> > >> >> This would have been amusing, except I actually encounter people who >> get >> >> terribly upset when I mention climate change is unlikely to be an >> >> existential risk. Just check out some of the reactions in the comments: >> >> >> https://theconversation.com/the-five-biggest-threats-to-human-existence-27053 > > > ### A couple of months ago SciAm published an article by Michael Mann, of > the hockey-stick fame, one of the central players in the global warming > pseudoscience industry. The article was a propaganda screed trying to > weasel out of admitting that everything that Mann and his ilk claimed to > know about climate isn't so, now that we have 20 years of a stark > discrepancy between their crazy predictions and the boringly normal reality. > > This month SciAm published a letter from a reader who more or less berated > Mann for not being sufficiently scary in his sky-is-falling predictions. > > This implies that the journos at SciAm think that the climate hysteric in > chief is not hysterical enough. > > Can you imagine that? The professional crooks who cooked up the global > warming story in the first place are now getting yelled at by journalists > who popularized the hoax? > > The public loves a good existential scare story and they won't let anybody > pry it out of their crania, come hell or nice weather. > > This makes me wonder, what *is* a good scare story? Why is the climate > change story still so popular in some circles? > > Strange times. > > BTW, I don't subscribe to SciAm, I just occasionally buy copies to read on > the plane. Just so nobody thinks I am into low-brow literature. > > Rafal > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -- https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Wed Jul 23 17:42:59 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 10:42:59 -0700 Subject: [ExI] FW: Intelligence Unbound is finally out In-Reply-To: <53CFF385.8060100@satx.rr.com> References: <53CD4A57.9090409@satx.rr.com> <53CFF385.8060100@satx.rr.com> Message-ID: <044601cfa69d$8c5aa220$a50fe660$@att.net> -----Original Message----- From: Damien Broderick [mailto:thespike at satx.rr.com] Sent: Wednesday, July 23, 2014 10:40 AM To: Spike Subject: Intelligence Unbound is finally out ================================ Wiley has informed me that *Intelligence Unbound: The Future of Uploaded and Machine Minds*, co-edited with Russell Blackford, is now published. http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1118736281.html Plenty of material from philosophers and AI specialists to chew on. ================================ Damien From msd001 at gmail.com Wed Jul 23 20:50:27 2014 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 16:50:27 -0400 Subject: [ExI] unconscious In-Reply-To: <1655596472-21628@secure.ericade.net> References: <1655596472-21628@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: On Wed, Jul 23, 2014 at 6:25 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > So I think making the unconscious conscious is not the way to higher > intelligence. Quite the opposite. We might want more layers! > I wonder if this principle also speaks to the hive-mind of galactic superbrains when people assume that lightspeed communication somehow limits thinking. I'd assume that multi-layer controls would mitigate those delays in the same way semaphores (and other management tricks) enable multi-threaded operations to "merge" in a finished result in much less time than serial operations would complete. *shrug* 'probably just result in a Marvin the Paranoid Android being a real thing. From anders at aleph.se Wed Jul 23 22:11:10 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2014 00:11:10 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1698877597-17503@secure.ericade.net> Tomaz Kristan , 23/7/2014 1:17 PM: "If you believe in AGW, regardless of reason or data, you are one of us." This is a very clear message of this cult, which encompasses the majority of the self defined elite. It also encompasses the reinsurance industry, a business that is very careful to have as accurate risk models as possible and does lose money when they are wrong. I think there is an excellent free market solution to this debate. If you think AGW is overblown, then a lot of beachfront property is being undervalued. Buy! If you think AGW looks plausible, buy northerly properties from the AGW sceptics. And so on. The people making the most money after 50 years wins.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Wed Jul 23 22:20:29 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2014 00:20:29 +0200 Subject: [ExI] unconscious In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1699238308-17503@secure.ericade.net> Mike Dougherty , 23/7/2014 10:55 PM: On Wed, Jul 23, 2014 at 6:25 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > So I think making the unconscious conscious is not the way to higher > intelligence. Quite the opposite. We might want more layers! I wonder if this principle also speaks to the hive-mind of galactic superbrains when people assume that lightspeed communication somehow limits thinking. ?I'd assume that multi-layer controls would mitigate those delays in the same way semaphores (and other management tricks) enable multi-threaded operations to "merge" in a finished result in much less time than serial operations would complete. The upper layers would be rather slow, but would set the goals and strategies for the more local and fast layers. A bit like a prefrontal thought (timescale seconds) leads to a motor plan (timescale around 0.3-0.5 seconds) that turns into a motor action (timescales around 0.1 seconds). *shrug* 'probably just result in a Marvin the Paranoid Android being a real thing. We are already suffering from a bit of split personality this way anyway. High level "I" do not have much control over a lot of first-order desires (more food!) despite having second-order desires (keep waistline!) based on rational reasons. And there are plenty of reflex arcs that act entirely of their own without asking the brain for permission.? "I'm sorry my local mind forcibly dismantled your solar system before I could intervene; I sincerely respect the autonomy of all all intelligent life. Oh, by the way... this is me-galaxy-local. Please don't make a fuss that alerts me-supercluster-nonlocal. It has some odd notions I do not understand..." Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Wed Jul 23 22:51:12 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 23:51:12 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: <1698877597-17503@secure.ericade.net> References: <1698877597-17503@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: On Wed, Jul 23, 2014 at 11:11 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > It also encompasses the reinsurance industry, a business that is very > careful to have as accurate risk models as possible and does lose money when > they are wrong. > > I think there is an excellent free market solution to this debate. If you > think AGW is overblown, then a lot of beachfront property is being > undervalued. Buy! If you think AGW looks plausible, buy northerly properties > from the AGW sceptics. And so on. The people making the most money after 50 > years wins. > > There are several discussions on the net pointing out that the people denying AGW are rich conservatives and libertarians. The rich conservatives are obviously self-serving in their denials of AGW. (They own the big polluting industries). The tragic ones are the libertarians. The changes required to fix AGW run directly against their individualistic ideology. The obsession of libertarians with individual liberty crowds out the value of truth. So they find themselves forced to deny the obvious climate changes going on around them. BillK From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Thu Jul 24 01:33:19 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 21:33:19 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: References: <1698877597-17503@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: On Wed, Jul 23, 2014 at 6:51 PM, BillK wrote: The tragic ones are the libertarians. The changes required to fix AGW > run directly against their individualistic ideology. The obsession of > libertarians with individual liberty crowds out the value of truth. So > they find themselves forced to deny the obvious climate changes going > on around them. ### Even NASA thinks there has been no measurable AGW in the last 20 years. Obviously, to use the word you employed, NASA is overrun by rich conservative libertarians. These scheming schlemiels. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From protokol2020 at gmail.com Thu Jul 24 05:53:13 2014 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2014 07:53:13 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: References: <1698877597-17503@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: > they find themselves forced to deny the obvious climate changes Which obvious climate changes? Name just one, very directly. Don't say something like "everybody non-blind can see them everywhere" - but name just one which is apparent and clear. On Thu, Jul 24, 2014 at 3:33 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki < rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote: > > > > On Wed, Jul 23, 2014 at 6:51 PM, BillK wrote: > > The tragic ones are the libertarians. The changes required to fix AGW >> run directly against their individualistic ideology. The obsession of >> libertarians with individual liberty crowds out the value of truth. So >> they find themselves forced to deny the obvious climate changes going >> on around them. > > > ### Even NASA thinks there has been no measurable AGW in the last 20 > years. > > Obviously, to use the word you employed, NASA is overrun by rich > conservative libertarians. > > These scheming schlemiels. > > Rafal > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -- https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Thu Jul 24 07:31:16 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2014 03:31:16 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Material for the launch tower Message-ID: Looks like we have a material that is more than sufficient to build a space launch tower: http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2014/new-ultrastiff-ultralight-material-developed-0619 If it could be made in bulk, building a tower for railgun-assisted space launch should be a breeze. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Thu Jul 24 11:13:10 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2014 13:13:10 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1745632397-12383@secure.ericade.net> There is a fair amount of motivated cognition going around (not just among AGW deniers, but among AGW supporters), and even is-ought confusion. I wrote a little essay about it:http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2014/06/do_we_have_to_be_good_to_set_things_right.html BillK??, 24/7/2014 12:54 AM: The tragic ones are the libertarians. The changes required to fix AGW? run directly against their individualistic ideology. The obsession of? libertarians with individual liberty crowds out the value of truth. So? they find themselves forced to deny the obvious climate changes going? on around them.? It might be a Tetlockian sacred value: to libertarians freedom is essentially the only sacred thing that must not be traded for anything secular. Most other views have different sacred values, and do not usually place freedom in that category. So they are OK with trading some forms of freedom for other things, like better clima te. But this is as outrageous to a libertarian as putting an explicit dollar value on human lives is to most people (to them human lives are sacred values that must not be traded for secular money value). End result: various psychological mechanisms erupt and people behave irrationally.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From protokol2020 at gmail.com Fri Jul 25 06:37:27 2014 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Fri, 25 Jul 2014 08:37:27 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: <1745632397-12383@secure.ericade.net> References: <1745632397-12383@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: Anders wrote: > It also encompasses the reinsurance industry, a business that is very careful to have as accurate risk models as possible and does lose money when they are wrong. I think, the insurance companies use AGW as a PR stunt and maybe as an excuse to be more expensive. No hard data proves the link between calamities and AGW, but it is a PR important stuff. It's all just a mirage. If I am wrong, a piece of unambiguous data should be mentioned somewhere. Or better everywhere. But it is not. On Thu, Jul 24, 2014 at 1:13 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > There is a fair amount of motivated cognition going around (not just among > AGW deniers, but among AGW supporters), and even is-ought confusion. I > wrote a little essay about it: > > http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2014/06/do_we_have_to_be_good_to_set_things_right.html > > BillK , 24/7/2014 12:54 AM: > > > The tragic ones are the libertarians. The changes required to fix AGW > run directly against their individualistic ideology. The obsession of > libertarians with individual liberty crowds out the value of truth. So > they find themselves forced to deny the obvious climate changes going > on around them. > > > It might be a Tetlockian sacred value: to libertarians freedom is > essentially the only sacred thing that must not be traded for anything > secular. Most other views have different sacred values, and do not usually > place freedom in that category. So they are OK with trading some forms of > freedom for other things, like better clima te. But this is as outrageous > to a libertarian as putting an explicit dollar value on human lives is to > most people (to them human lives are sacred values that must not be traded > for secular money value). End result: various psychological mechanisms > erupt and people behave irrationally. > > > Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford > University > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -- https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Fri Jul 25 08:57:10 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Fri, 25 Jul 2014 04:57:10 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: <1745632397-12383@secure.ericade.net> References: <1745632397-12383@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: On Thu, Jul 24, 2014 at 7:13 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > It might be a Tetlockian sacred value: to libertarians freedom is > essentially the only sacred thing that must not be traded for anything > secular. > ### Can't speak for other libertarians but for me the reason I became a climate realist was pure outrage at lying, not fear for liberty. Back in the 90s I provisionally accepted the warmist story, since I do take science seriously and I didn't know enough to form an informed opinion. Then Science Daily published a post summarizing the Jasper Ridge studies on the influence of carbon dioxide on plant growth, claiming that CO2 *reduces* plant growth by 40%. Huh? That really surprised me, so I read the original article in Science and that got me f..ing angry. Turns out the data showed increases in plant growth of 40 to 80% with CO2 compared to baseline controls - only if you selectively compared some CO2 conditions to other investigated conditions (added water, added nitrogen, increased temperature) was there a reduction - basically, pouring water, nitrogen *and* CO2 on plants made them growth less well than with water or CO2 alone (but still more than the baseline condition i.e. today's climate). The dirty rotten liars didn't fudge the data but they bent over backwards to completely invert the meaning of their findings in their editorial. As a nerd I have a special hate for anybody who lies to me. Power plays and general assholery are a part of life, and I am amiable enough to live with it, but lying just pisses me off. So I went to the trouble of reading more and more about warmism and the more I read the more pissed off I got: the Yamal trees, inverted warves, and the fudged CO2-temperature geological timeline graph were just the beginning. I had to conclude that there was a fundamental corruption of the scientific process in climate science and essentially nothing that they say can be trusted (except if it contradicts warmism). This happened before: Lysenkoism in Russia is just one example, relevant because of the similarity of mechanism. Just as with climate science in the US, the field of genetics in Russia found itself subverted by an outside bureaucratic force, destroying actual scientists and replacing them with apparatchiks. So yes, I did get emotional about climate but for non-libertarian reasons. --------------------- > Most other views have different sacred values, and do not usually place > freedom in that category. So they are OK with trading some forms of freedom > for other things, like better clima te. But this is as outrageous to a > libertarian as putting an explicit dollar value on human lives is to most > people (to them human lives are sacred values that must not be traded for > secular money value). End result: various psychological mechanisms erupt > and people behave irrationally. > ### Maybe it's just the common human desire to feel exceptional but from what I am reading about the psychology of libertarians, especially the Bayesian libertarians that Tetlock investigated, we are unusually sacrilegious. We are the bullet biters in ethical decision making tests, we are extreme systematizers, following rules to their logical conclusions. This form of libertarianism is a bit like psychopathy, little influenced by revulsion or empathy, but it differs from psychopathy by being too detached to yearn for dominance or to be machiavellian. And most libertarians I know have very low time preference, another difference from psychopaths. Libertarianism is cold and neither good nor evil. Of course, nice people who happen to be libertarians are still very nice (yes, I mean you, Anders), they just don't let goodness stand in the way of truth and see truth as the pathway to goodness. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Fri Jul 25 11:43:15 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Fri, 25 Jul 2014 13:43:15 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1832574602-31855@secure.ericade.net> Tomaz Kristan , 25/7/2014 8:42 AM: Anders wrote: > It also encompasses the reinsurance industry, a business that is very careful to have as accurate risk models as possible and does lose money when they are wrong. I think, the insurance companies use AGW as a PR stunt and maybe as an excuse to be more expensive. No hard data proves the link between calamities and AGW, but it is a PR important stuff. I have been to Lloyd's meetings where they have carefully looked at climate data and discussed how it affects their risks. If they are doing it as a PR stunt, the Chief Risk Officers of the industry all seem to be fooling each other and their own teams. I doubt the insurers are just naively following AGW hype: they are seriously trying to be on top of the situation in order to beat their rivals. The effect of climate change on perils is actually quite nontrivial (one reason for those meetings: more risk is not a problem to the industry, it is uncertain risk that is a problem). If everything gets equally warmer hurricane frequency and strengths might not be affected at all since they are being powered by a temperature difference. But the sea-stratosphere gradient is complex and hard to model reliably. Even without a change in hurricanes themselves a different climate may cause changed paths, and that is serious business. One discussion I participated in was the issue of unlocking faultlines by melting glaciers: most of the time a really small-scale slow issue, but even a tiny increase in extreme tail events in areas believed to be seismically stable??is a big deal?(check out the Lapland fault province - huge postglacial quakes in otherwise totally stable Scandinavia). Models of changes in precipitation distribution are very uncertain, and the flood models they feed into are fairly sensitive to changes in land cover, which also clearly and nontrivially gets affected by temperature. And most obviously, even small increases in sea level have big effect on flooding probabilities: it is not like a one centimetre increase makes the flood level one centimetre higher (exceedances are always *way* higher than expected), but that they become much more common. But the sea rises are unevenly distributed. And so on and on and on...? If you actually think you know the risks better than the industry, you could be making billions.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Fri Jul 25 11:59:38 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Fri, 25 Jul 2014 12:59:38 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: <1832574602-31855@secure.ericade.net> References: <1832574602-31855@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: On Fri, Jul 25, 2014 at 12:43 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > The effect of climate change on perils is actually quite nontrivial (one > reason for those meetings: more risk is not a problem to the industry, it is > uncertain risk that is a problem). If everything gets equally warmer > hurricane frequency and strengths might not be affected at all since they > are being powered by a temperature difference. But the sea-stratosphere > gradient is complex and hard to model reliably. Even without a change in > hurricanes themselves a different climate may cause changed paths, and that > is serious business. One discussion I participated in was the issue of > unlocking faultlines by melting glaciers: most of the time a really > small-scale slow issue, but even a tiny increase in extreme tail events in > areas believed to be seismically stable is a big deal (check out the > Lapland fault province - huge postglacial quakes in otherwise totally stable > Scandinavia). Models of changes in precipitation distribution are very > uncertain, and the flood models they feed into are fairly sensitive to > changes in land cover, which also clearly and nontrivially gets affected by > temperature. And most obviously, even small increases in sea level have big > effect on flooding probabilities: it is not like a one centimetre increase > makes the flood level one centimetre higher (exceedances are always *way* > higher than expected), but that they become much more common. But the sea > rises are unevenly distributed. And so on and on and on... > > And another problem is tipping points. Risks are gradual until a tipping point is reached, then the effect becomes unstoppable. All that is left is protection measures. See: Quote: Recent satellite observations have confirmed the accuracy of two independent computer simulations that show that the West Antarctic ice sheet has now entered a state of unstoppable collapse. The planet has entered a new era of irreversible consequences from climate change. The only question now is whether we will do enough to prevent similar developments elsewhere. --------- And West Antarctic Glacier Loss Appears Unstoppable And that is only one example......... BillK From protokol2020 at gmail.com Fri Jul 25 13:24:47 2014 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Fri, 25 Jul 2014 15:24:47 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: References: <1832574602-31855@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: Anders wrote: > If you actually think you know the risks better than the industry, you could be making billions. I can't. This data, this information is not exchangeable to money so easily. Nor is the negative information, that the Earth is soon going to be as hot as Hell, does not damage this companies very much. It's like believing in Jesus. If you know there is no Jesus in the Heaven above, you can't monetize this knowledge easily. And if you believe there is, it is not a big damage for your valet. On Fri, Jul 25, 2014 at 1:59 PM, BillK wrote: > On Fri, Jul 25, 2014 at 12:43 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > > The effect of climate change on perils is actually quite nontrivial (one > > reason for those meetings: more risk is not a problem to the industry, > it is > > uncertain risk that is a problem). If everything gets equally warmer > > hurricane frequency and strengths might not be affected at all since they > > are being powered by a temperature difference. But the sea-stratosphere > > gradient is complex and hard to model reliably. Even without a change in > > hurricanes themselves a different climate may cause changed paths, and > that > > is serious business. One discussion I participated in was the issue of > > unlocking faultlines by melting glaciers: most of the time a really > > small-scale slow issue, but even a tiny increase in extreme tail events > in > > areas believed to be seismically stable is a big deal (check out the > > Lapland fault province - huge postglacial quakes in otherwise totally > stable > > Scandinavia). Models of changes in precipitation distribution are very > > uncertain, and the flood models they feed into are fairly sensitive to > > changes in land cover, which also clearly and nontrivially gets affected > by > > temperature. And most obviously, even small increases in sea level have > big > > effect on flooding probabilities: it is not like a one centimetre > increase > > makes the flood level one centimetre higher (exceedances are always *way* > > higher than expected), but that they become much more common. But the sea > > rises are unevenly distributed. And so on and on and on... > > > > > > And another problem is tipping points. > Risks are gradual until a tipping point is reached, then the effect > becomes unstoppable. All that is left is protection measures. > > See: > < > http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/anders-levermann-explains-why-nothing-can-be-done-to-halt-the-collapse-of-the-amundsen-sea-s-ice-shelf > > > Quote: > Recent satellite observations have confirmed the accuracy of two > independent computer simulations that show that the West Antarctic ice > sheet has now entered a state of unstoppable collapse. The planet has > entered a new era of irreversible consequences from climate change. > The only question now is whether we will do enough to prevent similar > developments elsewhere. > --------- > And > > West Antarctic Glacier Loss Appears Unstoppable > > And that is only one example......... > > > BillK > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -- https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Fri Jul 25 14:20:35 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 25 Jul 2014 07:20:35 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: References: <1745632397-12383@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <00ac01cfa813$9a984870$cfc8d950$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Rafal Smigrodzki Sent: Friday, July 25, 2014 1:57 AM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] Existential hysteria On Thu, Jul 24, 2014 at 7:13 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: It might be a Tetlockian sacred value: to libertarians freedom is essentially the only sacred thing that must not be traded for anything secular. ### Can't speak for other libertarians but for me the reason I became a climate realist was pure outrage at lying, not fear for liberty. Back in the 90s I provisionally accepted the warmist story, since I do take science seriously and I didn't know enough to form an informed opinion. Then Science Daily published a post summarizing the Jasper Ridge studies on the influence of carbon dioxide on plant growth, claiming that CO2 *reduces* plant growth by 40%. Huh? That really surprised me, so I read the original article in Science and that got me f..ing angry. Turns out the data showed increases in plant growth of 40 to 80% with CO2 compared to baseline controls - only if you selectively compared some CO2 conditions to other investigated conditions (added water, added nitrogen, increased temperature) was there a reduction - basically, pouring water, nitrogen *and* CO2 on plants made them growth less well than with water or CO2 alone (but still more than the baseline condition i.e. today's climate). The dirty rotten liars didn't fudge the data but they bent over backwards to completely invert the meaning of their findings in their editorial. ? Rafal Excellent post Rafal, all of it, thanks for writing. The notion of global warming was introduced to the public in the 1970s but back in those days, there were more strongly competing theories. It wasn?t clear then if we were going into a new ice age or heading into a Soylent Green world. As we warmed to the warming side, we began to see what looked like obvious logical contradictions, such as the very common assertion that global warming would cause climates to become more inhospitable everywhere: dry places would get drier, flooded places would become more flooded, etc. In all that, people fortunate enough to have scientific sophistication can see that indeed CO2 levels do rise with time and human activity contributes to that, and CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and positive feedback mechanisms are plausible. Clearly there is truth mixed with the nonsense. The theory was expounded for at least two decades that AGW would cause hurricanes to get stronger and more common. Anders? offered a very reasonable observation that hurricanes are driven by thermal gradients, so if the entire column warms uniformly, there are not more or stronger hurricanes. That last part was left out. In all that debate it was clear enough that political considerations were driving the narrative, and all of it was distracting from a much more immediate emergency to mankind: energy availability. It is clear enough that we are using up the easily available low cost energy sources, and it is clear enough even to libertarians that humanity will need to work together to drive our species towards energy sustainability. We know we can?t have the kind of existence we want without a lot of low-cost energy. We know that the technology exists, even if it is costly. Keith Henson?s notions of doing space based solar are technologically feasible. Even if that flies, we know we are going to need to sacrifice huge swaths of desert to collect solar power, and we know it will be costly, the resulting energy will be costly, the environmental costs will be severe, we get all that, but we also see now that we need to go there. We need to build the nukes, put in the ground based solar, put up space based solar if the rich countries like China and Japan decide to go there (the USA will not and cannot) and yes we will need more of the old fashioned drill-baby-drill even if we know that is only a temporary solution, we get all of that. We need to stop letting political considerations get in the way. We can have governments everywhere acknowledge that the need for energy is critical. So take every company everywhere which is creating any form of sustainable energy and have governments stop blocking their progress; make politicians clear the path. Make every form of sustainable energy immune from the risk of EPA raids, from the EPA in general. Make sustainable energy companies invulnerable to lawsuit when it comes to wildlife protection. This is coming from a big fan of birds, for we know ground-based solar is bad for birds, but we also know we need it anyway, for otherwise a hungry and capable species will devour all the birds. After the birds are gone, we start on the dogs, then the rest of the beasts, and after they are gone, we know what happens, and we are told that humans taste terrible. Vote against politicians who say unkind criticisms of sustainable energy companies and elect those who are cheerleaders for those companies. We can see what needs to happen. The near-term future of humanity is all about energy availability. The global warming notion was a distraction at a critical time in history, even if it is correct. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Fri Jul 25 15:34:31 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Fri, 25 Jul 2014 17:34:31 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <53D27907.90204@libero.it> Il 23/07/2014 08:09, Rafal Smigrodzki ha scritto: > This makes me wonder, what *is* a good scare story? Why is the climate > change story still so popular in some circles? Because it justify the same prescriptions from the same groups of statalists willing to coerce, control and destroy freedom. A good scare story MUST: BE FALSE because if there is nothing, there is nothing to do to solve it and nothing will ever solve it JUSTIFY AGGRESSION because if the world will end if nothing is done, there is a justification to do what is claimed needed whatever be the means used. ADVANTAGE THE POWERFUL AND WEALTHY because they are who can and will fight back immediately and have the resources to know the difference between truth and lies Mirco From painlord2k at libero.it Sat Jul 26 13:32:19 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sat, 26 Jul 2014 15:32:19 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: References: <1698877597-17503@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <53D3ADE3.9050209@libero.it> Il 24/07/2014 00:51, BillK ha scritto: > There are several discussions on the net pointing out that the people > denying AGW are rich conservatives and libertarians. > The rich conservatives are obviously self-serving in their denials of AGW. > (They own the big polluting industries). > The tragic ones are the libertarians. The changes required to fix AGW > run directly against their individualistic ideology. The obsession of > libertarians with individual liberty crowds out the value of truth. So > they find themselves forced to deny the obvious climate changes going > on around them. So the obvious climate changes are AGW? Because a day it is global cooling, then the Ozone hole, the AGW, then unspecified "climate changes" when AWG parliamentary hearings are suspended because record high snow. Several discussion on the net show how people never doubting Climate Changes (whatever the changes could be) are liberals and rich government bureaucrats, politicians and assorted businessmen associated with government subsides and favors. Just now I'm sitting home, and outside is the coldest, rainiest summer of the last 40 years in Italy. Mirco From anders at aleph.se Sun Jul 27 05:49:53 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 07:49:53 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: <53D3ADE3.9050209@libero.it> Message-ID: <1985858008-20206@secure.ericade.net> Mirco Romanato??, 26/7/2014 3:49 PM: Just now I'm sitting home, and outside is the coldest, rainiest summer? of the last 40 years in Italy.? Doubt climate change all you want; suspect the scientific community of anything - but please do not use that argument. It is stupid and embarassing. You know better.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Sun Jul 27 05:54:43 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 06:54:43 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: <00ac01cfa813$9a984870$cfc8d950$@att.net> References: <1745632397-12383@secure.ericade.net> <00ac01cfa813$9a984870$cfc8d950$@att.net> Message-ID: On Fri, Jul 25, 2014 at 3:20 PM, spike wrote: > We can see what needs to happen. The near-term future of humanity is all > about energy availability. The global warming notion was a distraction at a > critical time in history, even if it is correct. > > I don't think that is totally accurate. I agree that energy availability is essential for the future of humanity. But AGW may put a stop to that by diverting resources to deal with crisis situations like New Orleans (or Florida) flooding or Hurricane Sandy or drought or wildfires, etc. I've just come across a different way of looking at AGW. This idea classifies AGW as either a Type 1 error or a Type 2 error. Which is worse? A Type I error is detecting an effect that is not present, while a Type II error is failing to detect an effect that is present. In the case of AGW, a Type I error means it was concluded that global warming is caused by humans, but it actually isn't. The Type II error is where we fail to act on global warming, even though it is human caused. What are the consequences? For a Type 1 error, governments will provide incentives in order to urge the population to change their behaviour. This could include conserving energy, recycling, and developing alternative energy sources (wind, solar, hybrid). This error is basically just doing sooner, things which will have to be done anyway. A Type II error means continuing business as usual while humans continue to change the earth's climate. The cost of a Type II error is the damage brought about by AGW. Rising sea levels and temperature, increased pollution and wild climate changes, will have an impact on health, agriculture, forestry, water, coastal areas, as well as on many different species and the ecosystem. The consequences of a Type II error are so serious that they should be avoided whatever the cost. The consequences of a Type I error are that we will take the same steps that we would have had to anyway at a later date. The logical course of action is to always conclude that global warming is caused by humans. BillK From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Sun Jul 27 15:50:57 2014 From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian) Date: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 08:50:57 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Two Envelope Paradox Message-ID: <1406476257.47542.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> ? So without further ado: Imagine that?Ed?McMahon, or somebody suitably cheesy,?allows you? to?choose?between two sealed envelopes with money in them.?Furthermore?he informs that one of the envelopes contains?double the money of the other. ? So you choose one but before you can open it you are asked if you would like to?switch your envelope for the other.?So you do the expected value?calculations on keeping or switching envelopes- ? Your envelope contains?x dollars. The expected value of the *other* envelope is (1/2)*2x?+ (1/2)*(x/2) = 1.25x therefore?the *other*?envelope?has a higher expected value than the one you hold, so you should switch. ? But wait a minute. If you switch envelopes, you could do the calculation again and realize the the expected value of the original envelope is?one and a quarter of the one you now hold. You could use this reasoning any number of times to switch envelopes.?You would be trading envelopes with Ed McMahon indefinitely, the other envelope always being more valuable than the one you hold. ? Thereby the paradox.? ? So?to help you make up your mind, Ed McMahon allows you to open the envelope you now hold. You open it up, and it contains $20.?Then Ed Mahaon gives you one last chance to switch envelopes, should you? ? I think I have cracked this?paradox, but I am curious what others have to say before I reveal my reasoning. Especially the decision theorists on the list.????? Stuart LaForge "We speak for Earth. Our obligation to survive is owed not just to ourselves but also to that Cosmos, ancient and vast, from which we spring." - Carl Sagan From angelarturo911216.1991 at gmail.com Sun Jul 27 18:05:12 2014 From: angelarturo911216.1991 at gmail.com (=?UTF-8?Q?Angel_Arturo_Ramirez_Su=C3=A1rez?=) Date: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 13:05:12 -0500 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BExistential_hysteria?= Message-ID: > > > 1. Re: > ?? > Existential hysteria (Mirco Romanato) > 2. Re: Existential hysteria (Anders Sandberg) > 3. Re: Existential hysteria (BillK) > > > - ?Agreed that I don't see exactly how does it impact the collective of humanity to start doing what should have been done years ago. ?It's true that it costs money to protect the environment but by generating a culture of conservation we ensure that not only our general surroundings are better to live in (or climate deniers also deny that cities with too many cars and factories get filled with smog?) but we also reduce the amount of waste we have to deal with (plastics that take decades to degrade, nuclear waste, chemical and biological hazards). It also helps if we reduce the amount of resources and regulate the expansion of cities so that we can maintain the flora and fauna from which we feed and draw inspiration from. That's something I don't get about climate deniers. Even if we weren't the cause for global warming, what's so wrong about creating recycling programs or establishing flora and fauna protected areas? What do they propose instead, to keep polluting the environment and throwing our trash everywhere (even space, which brings to mind a Futurama episode where mankind threw their garbage to space and it came back as a huge ball trying to stomp them, LOL) so that even other planets get polluted as we expand through the universe? I think before leaving the planet we must generate a culture of conservation and try to have the least negative impact on our environment. -- *"Nuestras aspiraciones son nuestras posibilidades" - Robert Browning* -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sun Jul 27 20:40:06 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 13:40:06 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: References: <1745632397-12383@secure.ericade.net> <00ac01cfa813$9a984870$cfc8d950$@att.net> Message-ID: <028c01cfa9da$f3d8a560$db89f020$@att.net> >.. On Behalf Of BillK Subject: Re: [ExI] Existential hysteria On Fri, Jul 25, 2014 at 3:20 PM, spike wrote: >>... We can see what needs to happen. The near-term future of humanity is > all about energy availability. The global warming notion was a > distraction at a critical time in history, even if it is correct. ... >...I've just come across a different way of looking at AGW. This idea classifies AGW as either a Type 1 error or a Type 2 error. >...Which is worse? A Type I error is detecting an effect that is not present, while a Type II error is failing to detect an effect that is present. >...In the case of AGW, a Type I error means it was concluded that global warming is caused by humans, but it actually isn't. The Type II error is where we fail to act on global warming, even though it is human caused. >...What are the consequences? >...For a Type 1 error, governments will provide incentives in order to urge the population to change their behaviour. This could include conserving energy, recycling, and developing alternative energy sources (wind, solar, hybrid). This error is basically just doing sooner, things which will have to be done anyway... BillK, I can accept parts of this argument. We can measure that CO2 levels are rising, and we can calculate how much warming we should be seeing, all else being equal, with that increased CO2 level. The atmosphere should be warming. There are compensating effects which are ignored in that simple model however, specifically clouds. Water is a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, yet that model is complicated. More humidity means more trapped heat, but if high enough it reflects sunlight resulting in surface cooling. This science is far from settled. The kinds of risks I see I type 1 errors are reduced credibility of scientists and politicians. In our age, leading US politicians are in desperate need of some credibility, yet they squander what little they have left with corruption, deception and evasion of transparency. The current administration is the most corrupt in human history, yet they fail to just resign in disgrace as did the second most corrupt administration, Richard Nixon's. On and on they go, ignoring the fact that Americans no longer believe a word they say. I don't like to see Science Inc. drawn into that distasteful vortex. >...A Type II error means continuing business as usual while humans continue to change the earth's climate. The cost of a Type II error is the damage brought about by AGW. Rising sea levels and temperature, increased pollution and wild climate changes, will have an impact on health, agriculture, forestry, water, coastal areas, as well as on many different species and the ecosystem... Possibly. This argument ignores beneficial effects of global warming. The flooding argument assumes we build infrastructure to hold back rising seas, rather than abandoning the low ground and pulling back to higher ground. There are vast regions of the globe currently uninhabitable because of being too cold, more regions uninhabitable because of being too dry. I know of little or none uninhabitable because of being too hot. >...The consequences of a Type II error are so serious that they should be avoided whatever the cost. The consequences of a Type I error are that we will take the same steps that we would have had to anyway at a later date. The logical course of action is to always conclude that global warming is caused by humans. BillK _______________________________________________ Type 1 errors have a lot to do with how we decide to deal with global warming. We have been offered some scientific models which have been shown to be wrong, such as predictions going all the way back to the mid 70s that a hothouse Earth was only 40 yrs away. Clearly that didn't happen. These kinds of errors influence how and where investors put their capital. Decisions made by investors, in the long run, is a lot more important than what governments try to push on us. Governments get voted out and forgotten, but investors are betting with their own money and making things happen in the long term. spike From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Mon Jul 28 02:31:00 2014 From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian) Date: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 19:31:00 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Two envelope paradox Message-ID: <1406514660.97714.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> ? So without further ado: Imagine that Ed McMahon, or somebody suitably cheesy, allows you to choose between two sealed envelopes with money in them. Furthermore he informs that one of the envelopes contains double the money of the other. So you choose one but before you can open it you are asked if you would like to switch your envelope for the other. So you do the expected value calculations on keeping or switching envelopes- Your envelope contains x dollars. The expected value of the *other* envelope is (1/2)*2x + (1/2)*(x/2) = 1.25x therefore the *other* envelope has a higher expected value than the one you hold, so you should switch. But wait a minute. If you switch envelopes, you could do the calculation again and realize the the expected value of the original envelope is one and a quarter of the one you now hold. You could use this reasoning any number of times to switch envelopes. You would be trading envelopes with Ed McMahon indefinitely, the other envelope always being more valuable than the one you hold. Thereby the paradox. So to help you make up your mind, Ed McMahon allows you to open the envelope you now hold. You open it up, and it contains $20. Then Ed Mahaon gives you one last chance to switch envelopes, should you? I think I have cracked this paradox, but I am curious what others have to say before I reveal my reasoning. Especially the decision theorists on the list. Stuart LaForge "We speak for Earth. Our obligation to survive is owed not just to ourselves but also to that Cosmos, ancient and vast, from which we spring." - Carl Sagan From atymes at gmail.com Mon Jul 28 06:45:47 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 23:45:47 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Two Envelope Paradox In-Reply-To: <1406476257.47542.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> References: <1406476257.47542.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: As you point out, the paradox applies no matter which envelope you hold. No matter what you do, unless you actually have information about whether your envelope probably has the larger or smaller amount, switching and not switching are both equally likely to get each end result. That said, it might be possible to cheat just a little bit. If the $20 is a single bill, then unless there's indication that the other envelope holds just a single object (which would be a $10 bill, there being no $40 bills), it might be a bit more likely the other envelope holds $40. Reasoning: $20 bills are more common than $10 bills - among other things, they're the standard that ATMs yield. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From clementlawyer at gmail.com Mon Jul 28 19:35:08 2014 From: clementlawyer at gmail.com (James Clement) Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 14:35:08 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Increase Longevity And Intelligence With Boosted Klotho Levels Message-ID: According to Louie Helm, of Rockstar Research, taking "activated vitamin D" drugs, like Calcitriol or Paricalcitol could give a person the increased longevity and ~6% IQ boost that the Klotho gene provides to people lucky enough to have the "GT variant." Anyone going to try this? Here's the article: Increase Longevity And Intelligence With Boosted Klotho Levels Original story Researchers recently found that a single gene may account for as much as 3% of total variation in human intelligence . If this result holds, it suggests some obvious strategies for developing new kinds of cognitive enhancers since it implies that a single protein (klotho) may be responsible for as much as a 6 point IQ boost. To put this in perspective, there were previously no other single-point genes believed to account for even a 1 point IQ gain. And a 6 point IQ boost is almost the difference between the average farm laborer and the average elementary school teacher . So this could be a big deal. And the longevity benefit of klotho is even more well studied and potentially larger than the cognitive benefit. For example, when researchers checked to see how common the KL-VS gene is at different ages, they found that by age 79+,there?s a 1.57x odds ratio in favor of having this gene despite there being a 4x odds ratio *against* having it at birth . Klotho gets this effect by being extremely cardio-protective via a unique pathway that helps regulate blood calcium levels much better as folks age . So how can you benefit from this? For one, you can check 23andMe right now and look up if you have a functional copy of KL-VS . Either click the link to 23andMe or check your raw data file : look for Rs9536314 and if it?s GT, you?re already one of the lucky folks (1 in 5) with high klotho levels and potentially boosted longevity/cognition. But what if you?re TT or GG? That?s where it gets interesting. All the articles recently published about klotho are repeating boilerplate from the researchers about how ?someday maybe someone will find a drug to boost klotho levels?. Well, since Google Scholar and Library Genesis exist, that day is today and that researcher is me. It turns out that lots of people get their klotho levels increased as a side-effect of taking prescription forms of ?activated? vitamin D (VDRAs ) for chronic kidney disease (CKD). But there?s no reason to wait until you?re almost dying and need dialysis to start benefiting from this knowledge. Instead, this implies that taking something like 0.25 mcg/day of Calcitriol or 1 mcg/day of Paricalcitol right now for someone without the beneficial KL-VS variant of the KL gene might actually give a huge longevity and IQ boost. The intelligence boost is so large, that if this new study is right and the effects of klotho are at all acute, you should be able to measure it directly with something like quantified mind or perhaps even just raw introspection. Hopefully lots of researchers follows up on the most obvious implications of these two currently unconnected research findings and investigate activated vitamin D as a way to boost longevity and cognition in the 80% of the population lacking functional, klotho producing KL-VS genes. James Clement -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Mon Jul 28 20:08:20 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 21:08:20 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Increase Longevity And Intelligence With Boosted Klotho Levels In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 28, 2014 at 8:35 PM, James Clement wrote: > According to Louie Helm, of Rockstar Research, taking "activated vitamin D" > drugs, like Calcitriol or Paricalcitol could give a person the increased > longevity and ~6% IQ boost that the Klotho gene provides to people lucky > enough to have the "GT variant." Anyone going to try this? > These are prescription only drugs as adverse effects need to be monitored. BillK From tara at taramayastales.com Mon Jul 28 23:09:06 2014 From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya) Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 16:09:06 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Two Envelope Paradox In-Reply-To: <1406476257.47542.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> References: <1406476257.47542.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: This paradox also applies to cookies and children. The cookie held by the other child is always larger, and switching is demanded, upon which the cookie in the other child's hand is now seen to be the larger. This happens even though the size of both cookies is not concealed in any way, and apparent to both children. Tara Maya On Jul 27, 2014, at 8:50 AM, The Avantguardian wrote: > > So without further ado: Imagine that Ed McMahon, or somebody suitably cheesy, allows you to choose between two sealed envelopes with money in them. Furthermore he informs that one of the envelopes contains double the money of the other. > > So you choose one but before you can open it you are asked if you would like to switch your envelope for the other. So you do the expected value calculations on keeping or switching envelopes- > > Your envelope contains x dollars. The expected value of the *other* envelope is (1/2)*2x + (1/2)*(x/2) = 1.25x therefore the *other* envelope has a higher expected value than the one you hold, so you should switch. > > But wait a minute. If you switch envelopes, you could do the calculation again and realize the the expected value of the original envelope is one and a quarter of the one you now hold. You could use this reasoning any number of times to switch envelopes. You would be trading envelopes with Ed McMahon indefinitely, the other envelope always being more valuable than the one you hold. > > Thereby the paradox. > > So to help you make up your mind, Ed McMahon allows you to open the envelope you now hold. You open it up, and it contains $20. Then Ed Mahaon gives you one last chance to switch envelopes, should you? > > I think I have cracked this paradox, but I am curious what others have to say before I reveal my reasoning. Especially the decision theorists on the list. > > Stuart LaForge > > "We speak for Earth. Our obligation to survive is owed not just to ourselves but also to that Cosmos, ancient and vast, from which we spring." - Carl Sagan > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From tara at taramayastales.com Mon Jul 28 23:28:11 2014 From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya) Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 16:28:11 -0700 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BExistential_hysteria?= In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <8EE3AEBB-FFB1-4828-8471-7E39C1E9B2D4@taramayastales.com> On Jul 27, 2014, at 11:05 AM, Angel Arturo Ramirez Su?rez wrote: > That's something I don't get about climate deniers. Even if we weren't the cause for global warming, what's so wrong about creating recycling programs or establishing flora and fauna protected areas? What do they propose instead, to keep polluting the environment and throwing our trash everywhere (even space, which brings to mind a Futurama episode where mankind threw their garbage to space and it came back as a huge ball trying to stomp them, LOL) so that even other planets get polluted as we expand through the universe? > > I think before leaving the planet we must generate a culture of conservation and try to have the least negative impact on our environment. I definitely oppose hysteria about climate change, even if it's true and even if it's a problem. You can't conduct science in such a state of mind, never mind find solutions. It's not a culture of conservation that I object to, but the power grab by quasi-communists, or the "Red Greens" who took over the Environmental Movement after Marxism was discredited as a progressive ideology. This is ironic, as Communist states universally trashed their environments; yet certain special interests groups want to impose statist solutions. That is lunacy. I am an Environmentalist, and I wouldn't classify myself as a "denier", but I admit, I don't give a fig about Global Warming. My worry is the annihilation of biodiversity. That used to be an issue for real environmentalists, but as most of the rain forests are in tropical nations, it proved an insufficient stick to beat against capitalist nations in the temperate north. Reducing carbon foot print size, on the other hand, while it does nothing to save rare species, is a great tool for a minority international lobbyists and big business interests to impose transnational laws devised by unelected officials upon democracies. Again, even if all the science of global warming is true, that's a huge swindle and a danger to democratic accountability. And finally, suppose that Global Warming is happening, that doesn't make it bad. As warm climates are more biodiverse than cold, no one has yet given me a persuasive answer as to why I, or any other Environmentalist, should oppose Global Warming, even if it's quite real. Tara Maya Blog | Twitter | Facebook | Amazon | Goodreads -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tara at taramayastales.com Tue Jul 29 00:04:06 2014 From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya) Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 17:04:06 -0700 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <7B80D010-6F29-4E09-A58A-19E04941C217@taramayastales.com> On Jul 20, 2014, at 7:03 AM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > The Germans and the Japanese found out that you could not decode a language - namely Navaho. > > So why try to encrypt net traffic so that people can't read it? Any code can be broken by supercomputers, right? > > Then why not create a language and use that? I know there's probably a very simple answer to this, but this nontechie doesn't know it. Please forgive if this is a 'duh' question. > > bill w I think you are right. If you really belong to a community that has a true, living language, and you all use that, you could probably maintain your privacy. I am not convinced that our decoding skills are sufficient to break a living language yet. The problem is that if you don't already belong to such a community -- and I'd venture to guess that almost no one who is worried about computer privacy, unless they are secretly extra-terrestrial aliens living amongst us, does so -- then it's very hard to reap the advantages. If you pick an existing rare language and learn it, what is to stop the Snoopers from doing the same? If you invent the language, how can you make sure it is both sufficiently expansive and different from known languages as to be indecipherable yet sufficiently easy and relevant to modern life as to be learnable? Finally, how do you communicate with people who do not speak this language -- ie. most of the world with whom you need to do online socializing, never mind business? Tara Maya Blog | Twitter | Facebook | Amazon | Goodreads -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tara at taramayastales.com Tue Jul 29 00:05:45 2014 From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya) Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 17:05:45 -0700 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BRe=3A_possible_scheme_for_privacy?= In-Reply-To: <017a01cfa5f0$5950df00$0bf29d00$@att.net> References: <017a01cfa5f0$5950df00$0bf29d00$@att.net> Message-ID: <21310637-96A7-43E7-8198-340EA304280C@taramayastales.com> I agree -- I think this is the best way to avoid the problem of the government blackmailing its own citizens is to make the government workers themselves subject to the scrutiny the public preemptively. Tara Maya Blog | Twitter | Facebook | Amazon | Goodreads On Jul 22, 2014, at 2:03 PM, spike wrote: > > BillW, I am not a particularly a privacy advocate, in fact I lean toward openness. But I am an openness fanatic when it comes to government employees. Government jobs carry the risk of enormous power, which always results in you-know-what. So I would propose that all government bureaucrats? email communications, twitter tweets, instant messaging, e-chat, radio, telephone, handwritten notes, smoke signals and subtle facial gestures, all of it be made public domain. > The light would shine like a laser, and it would result in the most transparent administration in history. > > People ripping off the IRS is a problem. The IRS ripping off people is a bigger problem. Openness is the solution. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tara at taramayastales.com Tue Jul 29 00:07:26 2014 From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya) Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 17:07:26 -0700 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BRe=3A_possible_scheme_for_privacy?= In-Reply-To: References: <017a01cfa5f0$5950df00$0bf29d00$@att.net> Message-ID: <6D2BF551-923A-4D9D-B18C-CFDAAA02401F@taramayastales.com> On Jul 22, 2014, at 4:00 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > ?Yea! and Hear Hear! But, and it's a big but - people will lie, cheat, steal, murder, in order for other people to think of them what they want them to think. Just look at the market for plastic surgery, baldness cures and wigs, where the coverup is blatant. Even very small weaknesses are covered up, increasingly by men as well as women. > > And if no one had any secrets, what would happen to the main habits, the universal sideline, the obsession of us all: gossip? How much money is made from it? Mega billions. > > So - it just ain't going to happen.? ?Imagine a male divulging to a potential date, mate, bed partner, that he just loves pornography? Doesn't matter that porn is loved by nearly all the males and they will understand?. > > We are born and bred liars, every one of us. But Spike was not arguing for no personal privacy, only no GOVERNMENT privacy. An individual citizen's vote must be kept secret, to safeguard democracy; a Representative's vote must be made public for the same reason. Tara Maya Blog | Twitter | Facebook | Amazon | Goodreads -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Tue Jul 29 00:10:12 2014 From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian) Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 17:10:12 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Two Envelope Paradox In-Reply-To: References: <1406476257.47542.YahooMailNeo@web160505.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <1406592612.62036.YahooMailNeo@web160504.mail.bf1.yahoo.com> ? Lol. Yes. Same applies to dogs and bones. Perhaps the TEP is a game theoretical explanation for the evolution of envy. ? Stuart LaForge ? > On Monday, July 28, 2014 4:09 PM, Tara Maya wrote: > >T his paradox also applies to cookies and children. The cookie held by the other > child is always larger, and switching is demanded, upon which the cookie in the > other child's hand is now seen to be the larger. This happens even though > the size of both cookies is not concealed in any way, and apparent to both > children.? > > Tara Maya From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 29 00:40:24 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 19:40:24 -0500 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: <7B80D010-6F29-4E09-A58A-19E04941C217@taramayastales.com> References: <7B80D010-6F29-4E09-A58A-19E04941C217@taramayastales.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Jul 28, 2014 at 7:04 PM, Tara Maya wrote: > > > On Jul 20, 2014, at 7:03 AM, William Flynn Wallace > wrote: > > > I think you are right. If you really belong to a community that has a > true, living language, and you all use that, you could probably maintain > your privacy. I am not convinced that our decoding skills are sufficient to > break a living language yet. > > The problem is that if you don't already belong to such a community -- and > I'd venture to guess that almost no one who is worried about computer > privacy, unless they are secretly extra-terrestrial aliens living amongst > us, does so -- then it's very hard to reap the advantages. If you pick an > existing rare language and learn it, what is to stop the Snoopers from > doing the same? If you invent the language, how can you make sure it is > both sufficiently expansive and different from known languages as to be > indecipherable yet sufficiently easy and relevant to modern life as to be > learnable? > > Finally, how do you communicate with people who do not speak this language > -- ie. most of the world with whom you need to do online socializing, never > mind business? > > Tara Maya > ?Why learn the language at all? Create it, upload it to the computers to be used which then translate it into whatever language you need. As for how to go about creating it, I dunno. I'd just find a linguist who knew many languages and create one that did not follow any of the rules commonly used in them? ?so that there would not be any way a decoder could tell if a word was a noun, verb, whatever. You could put in all sorts of things, like every 5th sentence is reversed, or scramble them further with a random numbers table. To be used only for ultrasecret communications, not everyday use - unless you are a government or industrial spy. Sounds good to me but then I am no computer geek at all. bill wallace ? > Blog | Twitter > | Facebook > | > Amazon > | > Goodreads > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tara at taramayastales.com Tue Jul 29 01:25:20 2014 From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya) Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 18:25:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: References: <7B80D010-6F29-4E09-A58A-19E04941C217@taramayastales.com> Message-ID: <6C5C505D-5BC4-440D-987F-C1C57C3AC959@taramayastales.com> On Jul 28, 2014, at 5:40 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > ?Why learn the language at all? Create it, upload it to the computers to be used which then translate it into whatever language you need. That translation program then becomes the target of those who want to decipher your communications, and you're back to square one. The beauty of the Navajo translators is that they never wrote down their Enigma, so no one could steal it. Tara Maya Blog | Twitter | Facebook | Amazon | Goodreads -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Jul 29 01:25:48 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 18:25:48 -0700 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BRe=3A_possible_scheme_for_privacy?= In-Reply-To: <6D2BF551-923A-4D9D-B18C-CFDAAA02401F@taramayastales.com> References: <017a01cfa5f0$5950df00$0bf29d00$@att.net> <6D2BF551-923A-4D9D-B18C-CFDAAA02401F@taramayastales.com> Message-ID: <027801cfaacc$07b163f0$17142bd0$@att.net> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Tara Maya >?But Spike was not arguing for no personal privacy, only no GOVERNMENT privacy? Ja, thanks for that clarification. >? An individual citizen's vote must be kept secret, to safeguard democracy?Tara Maya We don?t have ballot privacy now in most cases. In my voting district we use voting machines (still!). I have been opposed to that ever since they were introduced. I understand they are to be retired soon, but not soon enough. We have biometric face recognition now, we have camera technology sufficiently advanced so that the cameras can be made completely undetectable. The voter-recognition software could be in the background quietly recording everything, with time stamps. The machines could be recording everything, with time stamps. Match the two; anyone with the keys can figure out how we voted. Certainly political operatives have the motive to know that information; now they have the means. We cannot prove it isn?t being done, at least in some cases. I would conclude that it is being done. We no longer have a secret ballot or not an assured secret ballot. We have steadily ramped up the power of the executive branch of government. We may reap bitter consequences in the foreseeable. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From dan_ust at yahoo.com Tue Jul 29 14:40:25 2014 From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan Ust) Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 07:40:25 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Transistor successor set to bring on "The Machine" age soon Message-ID: http://www.nature.com/news/transistor-successor-set-to-bring-on-the-machine-age-soon-1.15611?WT.ec_id=NEWS-20140729 Regards, Dan -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Jul 29 15:43:23 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 11:43:23 -0400 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BExistential_hysteria?= In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 27, 2014 Angel Arturo Ramirez Su?rez < angelarturo911216.1991 at gmail.com> wrote: > It's true that it costs money to protect the environment > Yes, and money is not an infinite resource so it should be used wisely. > by generating a culture of conservation we ensure that not only our > general surroundings are better to live in (or climate deniers also deny > that cities with too many cars and factories get filled with smog?) but we > also reduce the amount of waste we have to deal > Energy efficiency is always a good idea but it will not reduce overall energy usage because it can mean doing the same thing with less energy OR doing more things with the same energy; and people will almost always pick the second option. And nobody denies that cities filled with smog is bad, and few deny that the climate has gotten slightly warmer over the last century, but some of us DO deny that this warming represents a existential threat to life on this planet that we should be willing to pay ANY price to avoid. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Jul 29 16:30:20 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 12:30:20 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: References: <1745632397-12383@secure.ericade.net> <00ac01cfa813$9a984870$cfc8d950$@att.net> Message-ID: On Sun, Jul 27, 2014 at 1:54 AM, BillK wrote: > In the case of AGW, a Type I error means it was concluded that global > warming is caused by humans, but it actually isn't. The Type II error is > where we fail to act on global warming, even though it is human caused. > If global warming is on average a bad thing (and it's not at all clear to me that it is) then we may need to do something about it and it's irrelevant if it was caused by humans or not. And if humans are capable of accidentally causing global warming why is it inconceivable to think that they may also be capable of deliberately causing global cooling to counteract it? As I've mentioned before Nathan Myhrvold has a number of interesting ideas for doing exactly that and at a very very low cost. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Jul 29 16:32:27 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 11:32:27 -0500 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BExistential_hysteria?= In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Yes, and money is not an infinite resource so it should be used wisely. we ensure that not only our general surroundings are better to live in (or > climate deniers also deny that cities with too many cars and factories get > filled with smog?) > > ?Money is what is driving China to use coal rather than nuclear: bad for > the sky at all altitudes?, bad for the city folks' lungs, bad for our West > coast which gets the smog. > ?At any cost? No. But we don't need to use the lowest cost thing possible. It will cost the Chinese and all the rest huge medical bills for the pollution-created diseases. We should not care more about money than we do about people's health. bill w? > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tara at taramayastales.com Tue Jul 29 16:46:44 2014 From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya) Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 09:46:44 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: References: <1745632397-12383@secure.ericade.net> <00ac01cfa813$9a984870$cfc8d950$@att.net> Message-ID: <497F8987-B33B-43E6-A282-30AE66C0230D@taramayastales.com> On Jul 26, 2014, at 10:54 PM, BillK wrote: > What are the consequences? > > For a Type 1 error, governments will provide incentives in order to > urge the population to change their behaviour. This could include > conserving energy, recycling, and developing alternative energy > sources (wind, solar, hybrid). This error is basically just doing > sooner, things which will have to be done anyway. > > A Type II error means continuing business as usual while humans > continue to change the earth's climate. The cost of a Type II error is > the damage brought about by AGW. Rising sea levels and temperature, > increased pollution and wild climate changes, will have an impact on > health, agriculture, forestry, water, coastal areas, as well as on > many different species and the ecosystem. > > The consequences of a Type II error are so serious that they should be > avoided whatever the cost. The consequences of a Type I error are that > we will take the same steps that we would have had to anyway at a > later date. The logical course of action is to always conclude that > global warming is caused by humans. Maybe we need to add a third category, a Type III error. A Type III error is where the problem is real, but the solution makes it worse instead of better. An example is AIDS in Africa. The problem is real, and so doing nothing to stop the spread of AIDS is a bad idea. But raping virgins, which some have proclaimed as a "cure" for AIDS, is a worse idea. In that case, it would have actually been better to do nothing. Humans have made many, many Type III errors over the last century. More than enough to give us pause before accepting the argument "we must DO something!" Must we do something? No. We must do something that provably helps. There is a difference. The logical course is not to always conclude that global warming is caused by humans; the logical course is to be very suspicious of people who justify taking huge amounts of power away from the individual by means of scare-mongering. Tara Maya Blog | Twitter | Facebook | Amazon | Goodreads From tara at taramayastales.com Tue Jul 29 16:54:03 2014 From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya) Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 09:54:03 -0700 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BExistential_hysteria?= In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <72827662-5AC0-45F9-8ABA-49338FCA4A80@taramayastales.com> On Jul 29, 2014, at 9:32 AM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > ?At any cost? No. But we don't need to use the lowest cost thing possible. It will cost the Chinese and all the rest huge medical bills for the pollution-created diseases. We should not care more about money than we do about people's health. China is another example of a country where the power is concentrated in the hands of a few. Unsurprisingly, they are trashing their environment, and therefore wide parts of the planet we share with them. But the EU, for instance, by imposing draconian and often ridiculous carbon-limit and other so-called "green" rules on businesses actually drives businesses out of the democracies in Europe (where their pollution can be monitored and managed) into areas of the world where it is much, much worse, because the damage is hidden by authoritarian governments. Another example is the pipeline from Canada through the US. It should be perfectly obvious that Canada and the US are better able to build such a system so as to protect the environment, compared to say, the Middle East, where oil resources could be controlled by ISIS, or from Russia, which is controlled by a kleptocracy. Yet Russia is creating propaganda about the supposed "environmental" dangers of the pipeline and feeding these to credulous activists in Europe and America, to try to get people to shut down that pipeline. Of course, Russia doesn't care about the environment, they want to maintain their wealth. Since they've driven away all their real entrepreneurs, it's the only source of big money their state has left. Yet environmentalists fall for this. It's very sad. Tara Maya Blog | Twitter | Facebook | Amazon | Goodreads -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Jul 29 16:59:22 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 12:59:22 -0400 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BExistential_hysteria?= In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Jul 29, 2014 at 12:32 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > we don't need to use the lowest cost thing possible. It will cost the > Chinese and all the rest huge medical bills for the pollution-created > diseases. We should not care more about money than we do about people's > health. > It is not we in the west that are causing the dreadful pollution in China, it is the Chinese themselves. And regardless of what they "should" do the fact remains that they will continue to burn coal just as the USA did when they were at China's level of economic development because it is cheap. And however much environmentalists rant and rave the Chinese will continue to burn coal until somebody finds a energy source that is cheaper than coal. I don't think there is a snowballs chance in hell of solar energy, space based or terrestrial based, ever being cheaper than coal, but I think Thorium reactors might be. If you're really worried about air pollution and global warming then you need to educate yourself on this subject, and this is a good place to start: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lG1YjDdI_c8 John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rtomek at ceti.pl Tue Jul 29 18:22:52 2014 From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola) Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 20:22:52 +0200 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 130, Issue 21 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <20140729182252.GA10421@tau1.ceti.pl> On Sun, Jul 20, 2014 at 07:35:18AM -0400, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote: > On Sat, Jul 19, 2014 at 9:36 PM, Angel Arturo Ramirez Su?rez < > angelarturo911216.1991 at gmail.com> wrote: > > > Re: possible scheme for privacy (William Flynn Wallace) > > > > Hello new here, actually the privacy concerns have been adressed. The > > hacker community is working on a project called Meshnet which aims to > > create a new internet from the ground using a protocol called CJDNS. On > > this protocol there're no ISP's and every member is a node that shares > > information, the data is encrypted on each node so that it achieves max > > privacy and makes impossible to read the information or get data on the > > sender. It doesn't provide anonimity though. > > > > ### Interesting. How secure is it going to be against hardware backdoors? > Will it need specialized hardware? > > Rafal In these days when a lightbulb can hear your voice and send it to electric company it is naive to ask such questions... -- Regards, Tomasz Rola -- ** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature. ** ** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home ** ** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened... ** ** ** ** Tomasz Rola mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com ** From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Tue Jul 29 19:39:09 2014 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 12:39:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria Message-ID: On Thu, Jul 24, 2014 at 5:00 AM, BillK wrote: snip > > The tragic ones are the libertarians. The changes required to fix AGW > run directly against their individualistic ideology. I completely miss your logic here. I think you may be making assumptions about technology that are not necessarily justified. For example, if a non carbon source of energy came along that was substantially less expensive than fossil energy, can you see libertarians objecting instead of switching to cheaper energy? > The obsession of > libertarians with individual liberty crowds out the value of truth. So > they find themselves forced to deny the obvious climate changes going > on around them. That's common with all people, not just libertarians. Examples crop up here frequently. Keith From angelarturo911216.1991 at gmail.com Wed Jul 30 16:27:13 2014 From: angelarturo911216.1991 at gmail.com (=?UTF-8?Q?Angel_Arturo_Ramirez_Su=C3=A1rez?=) Date: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 11:27:13 -0500 Subject: [ExI] ?Existential hysteria (John Clark) Message-ID: >Energy efficiency is always a good idea but it will not reduce overall energy usage because it can mean doing the same thing with less energy OR doing more things with the same energy; and people will almost always pick the second option. And nobody denies that cities filled with smog is bad, and few deny that the climate has gotten slightly warmer over the last century, but some of us DO deny that this warming represents a existential threat to life on this planet that we should be willing to pay ANY price to avoid. ?Agreed that we must be careful in our decision taking and not be impulsive. Also agree that budgets are limited and should be used wisely, after all it's one of the first things that get reviewed on any project to approve or reject it. But we should still start working on improving our environments?, as William Flynn Wallace wrote, it will still affect our health and that will cost even more money than taking preventive measures now that we can. How about the Antartic ice sheets that are breaking? Does anyone have any plan to counter the rise in sea level or we'll just leave it be because it's not "human based"? And about Chinese's coal burning being China's problem, not exactly as that smog will still spread globally. There should be more pressure to prevent countries from damaging the environment, whether it's Russia, China, USA or whoever does, doesn't matter as we share the same planet. -- *"Nuestras aspiraciones son nuestras posibilidades" - Robert Browning* -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Jul 30 17:16:49 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 12:16:49 -0500 Subject: [ExI] internet privacy In-Reply-To: <6C5C505D-5BC4-440D-987F-C1C57C3AC959@taramayastales.com> References: <7B80D010-6F29-4E09-A58A-19E04941C217@taramayastales.com> <6C5C505D-5BC4-440D-987F-C1C57C3AC959@taramayastales.com> Message-ID: Well darn, Tara, you are just too smart. Back to the drawing board. bill w On Mon, Jul 28, 2014 at 8:25 PM, Tara Maya wrote: > On Jul 28, 2014, at 5:40 PM, William Flynn Wallace > wrote: > > ?Why learn the language at all? Create it, upload it to the computers to > be used which then translate it into whatever language you need. > > > That translation program then becomes the target of those who want to > decipher your communications, and you're back to square one. The beauty of > the Navajo translators is that they never wrote down their Enigma, so no > one could steal it. > > Tara Maya > Blog | Twitter > | Facebook > | > Amazon > | > Goodreads > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Wed Jul 30 17:54:09 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 13:54:09 -0400 Subject: [ExI] ?Existential hysteria (John Clark) In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Wed, Jul 30, 2014 Angel Arturo Ramirez Su?rez < angelarturo911216.1991 at gmail.com> wrote: > we should still start working on improving our environments > Then we need to stop fantasizing about powering 747's with sunshine (or is it moonshine?) and get serious about Thorium nuclear reactors. > Does anyone have any plan to counter the rise in sea level > Yes, Nathan Myhrvold, the former chief technical officer at Microsoft, wants to build an artificial volcano. I sent the following to the list a few years ago: Mt Pinatubo in 1991 became the best studied large volcanic eruption in history, it put more sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere than any volcano since Krakatoa in 1883. There is no longer any dispute that stratospheric sulfur dioxide leads to more diffuse sunlight, a decrease in the ozone layer, and a general cooling of the planet. What was astonishing was how little stratospheric sulfur dioxide was needed. If you injected it in the arctic where it would be about 4 times more effective, about 100,000 tons a year would reverse global warming in the northern hemisphere. That works out to 34 gallons per minute, a bit more than what a standard garden hose could deliver but much less than a fire hose. We already spew out over 200,000,000 tons of sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere each year, but all of that is in the lower troposphere where it has little or no cooling effect, the additional 100,000 tons is a drop in the bucket if you're looking at the tonnage, but it's in the stratosphere where its vastly more effective. Myhrvold wasn't suggesting anything as ambitious as a space elevator, just a light hose about 2 inches in diameter going up about 18 miles. In one design he burns sulfur to make sulfur dioxide, he then liquefies it and injects it into the stratosphere with a hose supported every 500 to 1000 feet with helium balloons. Myhrvold thinks this design would cost about 150 million dollars to build and about 100 million a year to operate. In another design that would probably be even cheaper he just slips a sleeve over the smokestack of any existing small to midsize coal power plant in the higher latitudes and uses the hot exhaust to fill hot air balloons to support the hose. If Myhrvold's cost estimate is correct that means it would take 50 million dollars less to cure global warming than it cost Al Gore to just advertise the evils of climate change. But even if Myhrvold's estimate is ten times or a hundred times too low it hardly matters, it's still chump change. In a report to the British government economist Nicholas Stern said that to reduce carbon emissions enough to stabilize global warming by the end of this century we would need to spend 1.5% of global GDP each year, that works out to 1.2 trillion (trillion with a t) dollars EACH YEAR. One great thing about Myhrvold's idea is that you're not doing anything irreparable, if for whatever reason you want to stop you just turn a valve on a hose and in about a year all the sulfur dioxide you injected will settle out of the atmosphere. And Myhrvold isn't the only fan of this idea, Paul Crutzen won a Nobel prize for his work on ozone depletion, in 2006 he said efforts to solve the problem by reducing greenhouse gases were doomed to be ?grossly unsuccessful? and that an injection of sulfur in the stratosphere ?is the only option available to rapidly reduce temperature rises and counteract other climatic effects?. Crutzen acknowledged that it would reduce the ozone layer but the change would be small and the the benefit would be much greater than the harm. And by the way, diffuse sunlight, another of the allegedly dreadful things associated with sulfur dioxide high up in the atmosphere, well..., plant photosynthesis is more efficient under diffuse light. Plants grow better in air with lots of CO2 in it also, but that's another story. > And about Chinese's coal burning being China's problem [...] > As I said the facts are that China isn't going to be any more receptive to the idea of abandoning coal than we in the west would have been a few decades ago UNLESS there is a energy source that is cheaper than coal. I think Thorium may be that source, I am certain that solar is not. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Wed Jul 30 20:31:24 2014 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 16:31:24 -0400 Subject: [ExI] ?Existential hysteria (John Clark) In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Wed, Jul 30, 2014 at 1:54 PM, John Clark wrote: > One great thing about Myhrvold's idea is that you're not doing anything thanks John, that was a great read. It was a good balance of interesting and not too long. From cghales at unimelb.edu.au Thu Jul 31 01:12:17 2014 From: cghales at unimelb.edu.au (Colin Geoffrey Hales) Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 01:12:17 +0000 Subject: [ExI] New book: Revolutions of Scientific Structure Message-ID: Hi , Hales CG. 2014. "The Revolutions of Scientific Structure" http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/9211 The Front-Matter (preface) and preamble (Chapter 1) are already accessible free from the publisher. Press release here http://www.worldscientific.com/page/pressroom/2014-07-11-01 It proposes that science is literally in the midst of a major Kuhnian paradigm shift and doesn't realise it. At the centre of the anomaly is the science of consciousness. This book is the articulation of ideas that happened to me when I was first in this list in the early 2000s. I hope it'll be an agent of change. We'll see. Enjoy! Colin Hales, PhD Researcher NeuroEngineering Laboratory, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering University of Melbourne, Australia -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Thu Jul 31 14:24:39 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 15:24:39 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The car of the Future? Message-ID: The Elio may look strange. But take a good look and get used to it, because if 25,000 reservations are any indication, the oddball vehicle is going to be a fixture on the highway after its expected release in late 2015. Quote: The ultra-cheap, $6,800 vehicle is technically a motorcycle; it has three wheels and the driver and passenger both sit center-aligned. But it probably has more in common with a very fuel-efficient car (at 84 mpg, it's supposed to get you from New York to Detroit on one tank). It's fully enclosed, and has regular car seats, seat belts, airbags, air conditioning, and options for a manual or automatic transmission. Its max speed is 100 mph. If people can get used to the vehicle's different look and feel, it could have a broad market. "Elio would have had no shot 15 years ago," says Paul Elio. "Now, we've become more open to what transportation looks like." Many potential customers wouldn't want a two-seater as their only car, but he expects people would consider it as a second vehicle for commuting, since most commuters drive to work alone. (Using it only for a roundtrip 80-mile daily commute, you'd make the sticker price back in 4 to 5 years at today's gas prices, according to our calculations). It hasn't all been smooth sailing for the Elio so far. While engineers designed the vehicle hoping for a 5-star crash rating, so far, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has refused to say whether it's willing to perform the tests on the unconventional vehicle (the company has been meeting with officials). The company has had to a hire a lobbyist to pass laws in the many states where its legal status as a motorcycle would require owners to wear a helmet or have a motorcycle license. So far, says Elio, the company has changed laws in about 12 states, and has been successful in all but one state where it's tried. (Arizona's governor vetoed a bill, because of a rider involving the legalization of beer bikes). ----------- As the article notes. 3 wheels leads to complications. Is it a motorcycle? Do occupants need to wear helmets? Motorcycle insurance is cheaper than car insurance, so???? If it is a motorcycle, can it use the car-pool lanes? Will Spike get excited??? :) BillK From atymes at gmail.com Thu Jul 31 15:29:59 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 08:29:59 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The car of the Future? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Jul 31, 2014 at 7:24 AM, BillK wrote: > As the article notes. 3 wheels leads to complications. > Is it a motorcycle? Do occupants need to wear helmets? Motorcycle > insurance is cheaper than car insurance, so???? If it is a motorcycle, > can it use the car-pool lanes? > At least according to California state law, a three-wheeled motorized vehicle counts as a motorcycle for all purposes, including the need to wear a helmet. Not sure about other states, but California has a way of setting trends in the law. > Will Spike get excited??? :) > California state law has...nothing to say about that, apparently. ;) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Thu Jul 31 16:07:09 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 18:07:09 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Existential hysteria In-Reply-To: <1985858008-20206@secure.ericade.net> References: <1985858008-20206@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <53DA69AD.2060402@libero.it> Il 27/07/2014 07:49, Anders Sandberg ha scritto: > > Mirco Romanato , 26/7/2014 3:49 PM: > > > Just now I'm sitting home, and outside is the coldest, rainiest summer > of the last 40 years in Italy. > > > Doubt climate change all you want; suspect the scientific community of > anything - but please do not use that argument. It is stupid and > embarassing. You know better. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/30/breaking-senate-report-exposes-the-climate-environmental-movement-as-being-a-cash-machine-controlling-the-epa/ http://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.View&FileStore_id=8af3d005-1337-4bc3-bcd6-be947c523439 Mirco From cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com Thu Jul 31 17:22:07 2014 From: cetico.iconoclasta at gmail.com (Henrique Moraes Machado) Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 14:22:07 -0300 Subject: [ExI] RES: The car of the Future? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <010e01cface3$f5f39a10$e1dace30$@gmail.com> Holy cow. This is fugly. And I really like the concept of three wheelers and think the two wheels in the front, one in the back arrangement is the best (stability, leg room). There are many concepts flying around the interwebtubs that prove those things don't need to be this atrocious. It's like they picked a Reliant Robin and just inverted it. The Elio may look strange. But take a good look and get used to it, because if 25,000 reservations are any indication, the oddball vehicle is going to be a fixture on the highway after its expected release in late 2015. http://www.fastcoexist.com/3033708/people-flock-to-put-deposits-down-for-a-t hree-wheeled-6800-vehicle From spike66 at att.net Thu Jul 31 17:13:28 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 10:13:28 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The car of the Future? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <01dd01cface2$bff67460$3fe35d20$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of BillK Subject: [ExI] The car of the Future? >...The Elio may look strange. But take a good look and get used to it, because if 25,000 reservations are any indication, the oddball vehicle is going to be a fixture on the highway after its expected release in late 2015. Quote: >...The ultra-cheap, $6,800 vehicle is technically a motorcycle; it has three wheels and the driver and passenger both sit center-aligned...So far, says Elio, the company has changed laws in about 12 states, and has been successful in all but one state where it's tried. (Arizona's governor vetoed a bill, because of a rider involving the legalization of beer bikes). ----------- >...As the article notes. 3 wheels leads to complications. Is it a motorcycle? Do occupants need to wear helmets? Motorcycle insurance is cheaper than car insurance, so???? If it is a motorcycle, can it use the car-pool lanes? >...Will Spike get excited??? :) BillK _______________________________________________ Ja, he will. I have been following Elio for a while now. The key to success of this whole scheme depends on having the fed declare it a motorcycle (so that crash safety regulations do not apply and air quality standards are relaxed) and states declare it a car (so that the driver and passenger do not need motorcycle training or helmets.) Technologically I think the three-wheeled approach is right, because it makes so many manufacturing processes so much simpler and allows a lighter overall system, with less wind resistance because of lower frontal area. The tandem two-passenger system makes sense to me. I confess to being puzzled by some of Eilo's engineering decisions, but they may point to the right way to do something like this. If we are shooting for a super-low price point, I have some suggestions. For starters, I think he should have gone with an existing 600 to 800cc twin cylinder motorcycle engine. They are already compact and lightweight, as well as having an integrated 5 speed transmission and a chain drive, horizontal output shaft, all ready to go, and most important for this application: already being mass produced and already qualified under motorcycle air-quality regs. California might make something like this happen: the state government tends to be open-minded about these sorts of things, the car market is huge with a lot of experimental minded people with money, and the climate is well-adapted for this kind of application: very little ice, snow or cold weather. I see something like this as primarily a California car. A motorcycle transmission would be simple to operate in the confined quarters of a 3 wheeler: a single-directional lever operated by the right hand. The linkage would be simple and work on existing motorcycle transmissions: center is the rest position, pulling aft and return shifts to a higher gear, forward and back to center goes to a lower gear. The engine needs to go as far forward as you can, so my notion would be to make it front wheel drive, and experiment with a single front wheel drive to see if that would introduce too much handling weirdness, but this last part might not be necessary. You would go with a polycarbonate body with clamshell front entry (although Elio's notion of side door entry might work OK. I am imagining a downsized version of his 3-wheeler, coming in at under 500 kg. Conclusion: I think Elio will not hit that 6800 price point, with the three airbags. I can envision something that might get there with a single airbag in the steering wheel and forget heating and AC (motorcycles don't have those, we ride them anyway) and forget any instrumentation that interfaces with the engine or wheels such as tachometer. You could however have a separate standalone unit that gives engine RPM based on acoustics and speed based on GPS. The vehicle would have no wiring harnesses, nothing, no dome lights, no cigarette lighters, no cell phone charging, nada nada nada on any of those goodies. Top speed would be around 70MPH (110kph) and do a dragstrip run ahead of an empty municipal bus but perhaps a little behind a typical econobox car. I can see getting about 60 miles per gallon, maybe half again more than a cheap subcompact car if you match speeds. Elio has the right idea (I think) for a trendy spendy high-endy three-wheeler, but I would be astonished (and pleased) if he can come in much under about 12k for the system he is describing. The stripper downsized version I envision would come in around 9k I think, if we can get large production runs going. The success of all this depends on the initial assumptions: the federal government declares this vision a motorcycle and the states (particularly California) declare it a car. spike From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Thu Jul 31 17:35:30 2014 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 10:35:30 -0700 Subject: [ExI] ?Existential hysteria (John Clark) Message-ID: On Thu, Jul 31, 2014 at 5:00 AM, John Clark wrote: snip > Myhrvold wasn't suggesting anything as ambitious as a space elevator, just > a light hose about 2 inches in diameter going up about 18 miles. In one > design he burns sulfur to make sulfur dioxide, he then liquefies it and > injects it into the stratosphere with a hose supported every 500 to 1000 > feet with helium balloons. I sat through a detailed presentation by Greg Benford on the engineering details in 2009, same meeting where I gave my first talk on power satellites as a solution to carbon, climate, etc. Liquid SO2 is 1.437 times as dense as water. 18 miles would be about the same as a 26 mile deep ocean. That's around 3.8 times the depth of the deepest place in the ocean. The SO2 has to be pumped up in stages, a lot of them. The design of the hose, the pumps, the supporting balloons and powering the pumps is not a trivial task. I worked on a much less daunting 20 km StratoSolar design, this is almost 29 km. > Myhrvold thinks this design would cost about 150 > million dollars to build and about 100 million a year to operate. In > another design that would probably be even cheaper he just slips a sleeve > over the smokestack of any existing small to midsize coal power plant in > the higher latitudes and uses the hot exhaust to fill hot air balloons to > support the hose. Hot air for this use is not reasonable engineering. How do you keep them hot? Benford didn't mention it. I have a hard time imagining that Myhravold would propose something with that big a hole in it. Do you have a pointer to his proposal? snip > As I said the facts are that China isn't going to be any more receptive to > the idea of abandoning coal than we in the west would have been a few > decades ago UNLESS there is a energy source that is cheaper than coal. I > think Thorium may be that source, I am certain that solar is not. I agree with you on the need for cheaper, and thorium might do the job. The most optimistic number I have seen for ground or even StratoSolar in future decades is about 8 cents per kWh, more than twice as much as coal. On the other hand, have you not paid any attention to my talking about space based solar for the last several years? If it is worth doing at all, the eventual cost needs to get down around 2-3 cents per kWh. That takes cheap transport to GEO. The artwork on Google drive shows a Skylon cargo container being added to a second stage. The second slide shows the cargo under way using VASIMR engines making the purple glow. The engines are powered by microwave from the ground. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5iotdmmTJQsamt1Tk1BaXlwaXBqLUhubS10VTJ4MnItSFNr/edit?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5iotdmmTJQsNVZxWWxRN0oyWXMzRlB0d0F4aFJOazRiZG9n/edit?usp=sharing The method looks like it will get solar power from space down well under the cost of power from coal. Keith From spike66 at att.net Thu Jul 31 17:31:08 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 10:31:08 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The car of the Future? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <01f001cface5$37bc4f90$a734eeb0$@att.net> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes Subject: Re: [ExI] The car of the Future? On Thu, Jul 31, 2014 at 7:24 AM, BillK wrote: As the article notes. 3 wheels leads to complications. >?Is it a motorcycle? Do occupants need to wear helmets? Motorcycle insurance is cheaper than car insurance, so???? If it is a motorcycle, can it use the car-pool lanes? At least according to California state law, a three-wheeled motorized vehicle counts as a motorcycle for all purposes, including the need to wear a helmet. Not sure about other states, but California has a way of setting trends in the law. This question of helmet use is a deal maker or breaker right there. In California, we have helmet laws but if the state legislature decides that the plastic enclosure and the steering-wheel airbag counts and sufficient passenger protection, they could give a papal dispensation to allow no-helmet use. I?m not exaggerating at all: that one requirement could mean a factor of 5 in sales. http://www.gocartours.com/press-kit/ We have hybrid cases now. You can rent a 3-wheeled GoCar in San Francisco, which is an open side-by side three wheeler, one aft two front. Those require a helmet but not a motorcycle license. That too is an oddity: if the state requires a motorcycle license to operate, a prole has to operate a motorcycle in order to get that license. But if one has a three-wheeler, she can claim to not know how to operate a motorcycle. But that skill wouldn?t be needed to operate an enclosed 3-wheeler which handles more like a small car than a bike. That carpool lane is another big question. If one is in that lane going the same speed as the other traffic, one runs the risk of getting shot. Will Spike get excited??? :) >?California state law has...nothing to say about that, apparently. ;) The California legislature seems to be open-minded when it comes to accommodating the car culture. They know we have a huuuuge army of car and motorcycle enthusiasts in this state; we vote early and often. They are smart enough to recognize that helmet use is a make or break for this whole deal, and I can see why Sacramento would want these things: smaller footprint on heavily-burdened roadways and parking lots, less weight means less wear on all that expensive pavement. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Thu Jul 31 18:09:13 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 19:09:13 +0100 Subject: [ExI] RES: The car of the Future? In-Reply-To: <010e01cface3$f5f39a10$e1dace30$@gmail.com> References: <010e01cface3$f5f39a10$e1dace30$@gmail.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Jul 31, 2014 at 6:22 PM, Henrique Moraes Machado wrote: > Holy cow. This is fugly. And I really like the concept of three wheelers and > think the two wheels in the front, one in the back arrangement is the best > (stability, leg room). There are many concepts flying around the > interwebtubs that prove those things don't need to be this atrocious. It's > like they picked a Reliant Robin and just inverted it. > > It's American! Don't expect Italian styling. :) (Not at first anyway). The problem Elio has is deciding what his market is. Americans are not known for volume buying of slow bare-bones cars, even if they are economical. Elio seems to be trying to cover his bases by having a basic model and allowing customers to load it up with as many goodies as they want. Then he will see what sells, and probably upgrade the basic to include the popular options. And somebody is bound to fit turbo chargers and nitro injection. ;) BillK From spike66 at att.net Thu Jul 31 19:20:58 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 12:20:58 -0700 Subject: [ExI] RES: The car of the Future? In-Reply-To: References: <010e01cface3$f5f39a10$e1dace30$@gmail.com> Message-ID: <024301cfacf4$8fb44ef0$af1cecd0$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of BillK Subject: Re: [ExI] RES: The car of the Future? On Thu, Jul 31, 2014 at 6:22 PM, Henrique Moraes Machado wrote: >>... Holy cow. This is fugly. And I really like the concept of three > wheelers and think the two wheels in the front, one in the back > arrangement is the best (stability, leg room). ... >...It's American! Don't expect Italian styling. :) (Not at first anyway)... Ja styling is another matter, but one style costs about the same as any other, if you are using molded polycarbonate. The deal-breaker is still that helmet. On the Co. Exist site, note the second comment: Dan Kassis: The idea of owning an Elio was very appealing to me, until I learned my state is one that would require the helmet. There's no way I'd drive one if that was a requirement. As far as I know the law still stands. I bought a two year-old compact car that gets up to 40 mpg instead. http://www.fastcoexist.com/3033708/people-flock-to-put-deposits-down-for-a-t hree-wheeled-6800-vehicle It really is all about helmets. Florida is still a possibility, because it has a big car-enthusiast market and it doesn't require helmets for motorcycles. Helmets are hot, they interfere with vision and hearing, they are heavy. You just wouldn't want to wear one every day. The version of Elio I have in mind has no air conditioner, so on a sunny day it will have greenhouse effect, even when the car is rolling. It doesn't get as hot as a parked car with the windows up, because the breeze carries away some of the heat, but I can easily envision it staying 10 degrees warmer in there than the ambient air. On a motorcycle, the heat is carried away by convection. The fully-enclosed Elio just isn't compatible with helmets. >...The problem Elio has is deciding what his market is. Americans are not known for volume buying of slow bare-bones cars, even if they are economical... BillK Ja I think there is something very basic wrong with his cost model. At that 6800 price point, the cost to distribute, transport from Louisiana, transportation insurance, capital costs, state and local tax structures, perhaps most important, manufacturers liability would combine to go over 6800, never mind cost of manufacturing. The biggest of those is likely to be manufacturers liability insurance. Motorcycle manufacturers get out of a lot of that. Consider the current case where GM is the defendant in a class-action lawsuit for faulty ignition switches. That will likely cost GM jillions of dollars. Compare to motorcycle manufacturers. We know that a particular bike model had a design flaw which caused unexpected rear-wheel lockup. The company wasn't sued. Motorcycle riders accept the risk. From a legal standpoint: you knew the risks when you threw a leg over the infernal contraption; if you didn't you are stupid. You buy your own risk, even if there are errors in design which increase risk. I keep coming back to this: the scheme depends on having governments classify this as a motorcycle but treat it as a special case motorcycle where you don't need a motorcycle endorsement on your driver's license, liability insurance is optional, you can use the carpool lanes and you don't need helmets. This idea depends on legal questions rather than a technical. spike From johnkclark at gmail.com Thu Jul 31 19:43:53 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 15:43:53 -0400 Subject: [ExI] ?Existential hysteria (John Clark) In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Jul 31, 2014 at 1:35 PM, Keith Henson wrote: > Liquid SO2 is 1.437 times as dense as water. 18 miles would be about the > same as a 26 mile deep ocean. That's around 3.8 times the depth > of the deepest place in the ocean. The SO2 has to be pumped up in stages, > a lot of them. Sure. What's the problem? The tallest building in the world is nearly a kilometer high, and the hardest part about building it was not figuring out how to pump water to the top of it. > The design of the hose, the pumps, the supporting balloons and powering > the pumps is not a trivial task. Compared with reducing CO2 emissions enough to actually make a difference to the climate pumping a liquid up 29 km would be triviality personified! > > I worked on a much less daunting 20 km StratoSolar design, this is > almost 29 km. > You had to worry about finding a efficient way to get the electrical power down those 20 km or it's not worth doing, Myhrvold is sending power (to rum the pumps) up not down and electrical transmission efficiency is utterly unimportant. And you wanted to build thousands of these things, Myhrvold only needs one. > Hot air for this use is not reasonable engineering. > Maybe not but worth thinking about; if hot air doesn't seem practical there is always helium and maybe even hydrogen; it's cheap and if it burns up it burns up and just go build another one, after all it's only a bunch of unmanned balloons, a few pool pumps, and a hose. > How do you keep them hot? > By constantly replacing the hot air. I would imagine that without doing anything the hot air that comes out of the top of a smokestack of a coal power plant reaches an altitude of several kilometers, if a long lightweight sleeve was placed over the smokestacks so that the hot air wouldn't mix with colder air it would go much higher, perhaps as high as 29 km. And if not there is always Helium. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Thu Jul 31 22:19:07 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Fri, 01 Aug 2014 00:19:07 +0200 Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?=E2=80=8BExistential_hysteria?= In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <53DAC0DB.2010207@libero.it> Il 27/07/2014 20:05, Angel Arturo Ramirez Su?rez ha scritto: > ?Agreed that I don't see exactly how does it impact the collective of > humanity to start doing what should have been done years ago. Because economy is about the seen and the unseen. I would also say "the glamorous" and the "unglamorous". Policymakers, more than people, are all interested in the "seen", what is "glamorous", "cool" and useful for their career. > ?It's true that it costs money to protect the environment but by > generating a culture of conservation we ensure that not only our general > surroundings are better to live in (or climate deniers also deny that > cities with too many cars and factories get filled with smog?) but we > also reduce the amount of waste we have to deal with (plastics that take > decades to degrade, nuclear waste, chemical and biological hazards). It > also helps if we reduce the amount of resources and regulate the > expansion of cities so that we can maintain the flora and fauna from > which we feed and draw inspiration from. All fine and dandy but "generating a culture" is synonymous of "central planning". Not only this, "generating a culture" is synonymous of thinking you or any group is able to program people in doing what you want without consequences. A "culture" is something always changing and adapting. A "culture" must spring from the bottom, not from the top. It thrive in P2P, not centralized, thinking and acting. Because if a culture can be imposed from the top to the bottom, by fiat of a cadre of leaders, today will be conservation, tomorrow will be mass slaughter of unbelievers. If YOU can do the former YOU can do the latter. And if YOU can do it, then others also can do it. The facts is a culture can not be imposed by design, it must be self reinforcing and self maintaining. The only way to have a culture of conservation and keep it is to have a profitable culture of conservation. The same is for recycling. The same if for wildlife biodiversity. The same is for all. > That's something I don't get about climate deniers. Even if we weren't > the cause for global warming, what's so wrong about creating recycling > programs or establishing flora and fauna protected areas? What do they > propose instead, to keep polluting the environment and throwing our > trash everywhere (even space, which brings to mind a Futurama episode > where mankind threw their garbage to space and it came back as a huge > ball trying to stomp them, LOL) so that even other planets get polluted > as we expand through the universe? There is nothing wrong in creating a self supporting economic program. You do not need to create it; if it is economic, it will create itself out of market forces. People care for their environment. And more wealthy they become, more the care for it. They care so much they will pay out of their own pocket without being forced to have a clean environment. How much clean? Exactly how much they can afford. Environment is everything around us interacting directly or indirectly with us. It is the food I eat, the room where I sleep, and the sea where I swim and the air I breath. I believe it is stupid to concentrate too much effort and resources to a few facets of the environment and disregard others completely. One must take a step, little step usually, at time. The future is unknown territory, traveling it like it is fully mapped is for fools. I see this continuously in my field of work: psychiatry. People obsessing about cleanness in the ward and keeping their excrements in plastic bags at home. How it is so different from people obsessing about buy "zero miles" when the costs to drive from home to the market is larger than the costs to bring the same fish from Tanzania to Italy or the banana from Somalia? Is it so different from people obsessing about eating "organic" food produced by very inefficient cultivations and then lamenting the destruction of wildlife because too much land is dedicated to grow foods? The differences is my patients damage mainly themselves with their obsession and marginally others. These people damage mainly others and marginally themselves. But it is always someone else fault things do not work as they would like. Mirco