[ExI] putin and the three pirates problem

spike spike66 at att.net
Mon Mar 3 17:15:26 UTC 2014

A couple weeks ago we were talking about three armed pirates and a bag of
gold.  The deeper I dig, the more crazy paradoxes I find in that.

The current situation in Ukraine reminds me of that scenario.  Europe
(including Ukraine) is one participant, (Obama plus the rest of the world)
is one participant, Putin is the third, and Crimea is the bag of gold.
Being the dealer, Putin can take as much as he wants now, knowing that
neither the US nor Europe will fire.

If the situation is vaguely analogous, then I make the following prediction
based on what little I know about a Nash equilibrium: Putin will effectively
annex Crimea and a broad defensible swath of land either side along the
shores of the Black Sea, and not a shot will be fired. 


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