[ExI] putin and the three pirates problem
pharos at gmail.com
Tue Mar 4 13:40:55 UTC 2014
On Tue, Mar 4, 2014 at 11:28 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> Putin is an excellent tactician but a lousy strategist. He got everything he
> wanted: Crimea (symbolically important), a 'war' to unify his nation, a
> chance to look buff, putting Ukraine and democrats in their place and so on.
> He does not care about foreign opinion, so it is not a problem. But indeed,
> this will make every state around Russia start to look towards NATO and EU,
> it produces a new source of unrest inside Russia, it breaks off
> international links, it makes it even harder to transition away from a raw
> materials based economy in the face of demographic winter, it loses Russia
> potential allies and any chance at claiming to not be a rogue state. So from
> a longer perspective it makes all of the Russian problems worse in the
> future. Putin may be fine with that, since he doesn't seem to aim for a
> political dynasty. He (and presumably his clique of core allies) just wants
> to stay ahead personally.
> He has read his Machiavelli, but skipped the chapters on making a viable
> dynasty. Sometimes the long game matters.
Foreign opinion might not matter too much. The idea that only the US
and UK have the right to invade other countries for made-up reasons is
rapidly alienating the rest of the world. Only the US dollar and fear
of their military is keeping the rest of the world 'friendly'. Crimea
speaks Russian and *was* Russian until quite recently, so Putin is
protecting his people against the neo-Nazis taking over in Kiev. Look
at the way Crimea has welcomed the Russian troops. China has supported
Putin and I wouldn't be surprised if more countries support him as
well. Europe will probably refuse to implement sanctions, as they
object to cutting their own throats.
(Russia supplies energy to Europe).
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