[ExI] putin and the three pirates problem

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Tue Mar 4 13:40:55 UTC 2014

On Tue, Mar 4, 2014 at 11:28 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> Putin is an excellent tactician but a lousy strategist. He got everything he
> wanted: Crimea (symbolically important), a 'war' to unify his nation, a
> chance to look buff, putting Ukraine and democrats in their place and so on.
> He does not care about foreign opinion, so it is not a problem. But indeed,
> this will make every state around Russia start to look towards NATO and EU,
> it produces a new source of unrest inside Russia, it breaks off
> international links, it makes it even harder to transition away from a raw
> materials based economy in the face of demographic winter, it loses Russia
> potential allies and any chance at claiming to not be a rogue state. So from
> a longer perspective it makes all of the Russian problems worse in the
> future. Putin may be fine with that, since he doesn't seem to aim for a
> political dynasty. He (and presumably his clique of core allies) just wants
> to stay ahead personally.
> He has read his Machiavelli, but skipped the chapters on making a viable
> dynasty. Sometimes the long game matters.

Foreign opinion might not matter too much. The idea that only the US
and UK have the right to invade other countries for made-up reasons is
rapidly alienating the rest of the world. Only the US dollar and fear
of their military is keeping the rest of the world 'friendly'. Crimea
speaks Russian and *was* Russian until quite recently, so Putin is
protecting his people against the neo-Nazis taking over in Kiev. Look
at the way Crimea has welcomed the Russian troops. China has supported
Putin and I wouldn't be surprised if more countries support him as
well. Europe will probably refuse to implement sanctions, as they
object to cutting their own throats.
(Russia supplies energy to Europe).


More information about the extropy-chat mailing list