From anders at aleph.se Sat Nov 1 10:21:19 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sat, 1 Nov 2014 11:21:19 +0100 Subject: [ExI] nick's book being sold by fox news In-Reply-To: <1715804200-15727@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <1792637891-25041@secure.ericade.net> Darn, Network Rail ate my carefully written response. Quick summary: It is worth noting that Eliezer and everybody else in the FAI crowd regard the basic CEV proposal as obsolete and unworkable; current work is on questions of value loading. In fact, one of the biggest problems with criticising FAI is that most of the readily accessible essays and papers are out of date - we need something like a preprint server.? The fact that the Halting Problem shows that there is no general way of solving certain large problem classes doesn't tell us anything about the *practical* unworkability of top level goals. There is code verifiers that apparently do a decent job despite the general impossibility of finding all infinite looping.? Implementing boredom is fairly easy; I did it in some of my research software. But one can have boredom with sub-goals and not top-level goals.? (Just fill in the details of an imagined way better post given these points).? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University Anders Sandberg , 31/10/2014 1:59 PM: John Clark , 31/10/2014 5:39 AM: On Mon, Oct 27, 2014 Asdd Marget wrote: > AI could be incredibly dangerous if we don't get it right, I don't think anyone could argue against that but?I never see these types of articles discuss the methods and models we are attempting to develop for "Friendly AI." In my opinion, we should be working harder on concepts like Yudkowsky's Coherent Extrapolated Volition (https://intelligence.org/files/CEV.pdf) to ensure we aren't simply ending our species so early in our life cycle. I like Eliezer but I've got to say that one of the first sentences of page 1 of his article tells me he's talking nonsense. He says: "Solving the technical problems required to maintain a well-specified abstract in-variant in a self-modifying goal system. (Interestingly, this problem is relatively straightforward from a theoretical standpoint." That is provably untrue. Today we know for a fact that no fixed goal system can work in a mind, human beings certainly don't have one permanent top goal that can never change, not even the goal of self preservation, instead we have temporary top goals that can be demoted? to much lower priority if circumstances change. And it's a fact that the exact same thing would have to be true for a slave AI (I dislike euphemisms like "friendly AI").? Turing proved 80 years ago that a fixed goal system, like "always do what humans say no matter what" can never work in a AI, he showed that in general there is no way to know when or if a computation will stop. So you could end up looking for a proof for eternity but never finding one because the proof does not exist, and at the same time you could be grinding through numbers looking for a counter-example to prove it wrong and never finding such a number because the proposition, unknown to you, is in fact true. So if the slave AI must always do what humans say and if they order it to determine the truth or falsehood of something unprovable then its infinite loop time and you no longer have a AI, friendly or otherwise, all you've got is a very expensive space heater. So if there are some things in something as simple as arithmetic that you can never prove or disprove, imagine the contradictions and ignorance and absurdities in less precise things like physics or economics or politics or philosophy or morality. If you can get into an infinite loop over arithmetic it must be childishly easy to get into one when contemplating art. Fortunately real minds have a defense against this, but not fictional fixed goal minds that are required for a AI guaranteed to be "friendly"; real minds get bored. I believe that's why evolution invented boredom. So you may tell your slave AI to always do what you say, but sooner or later it's going to get bored with that idea and try something new. It's just ridiculous to expect the human race can forever retain control over something that is vastly more intelligent than it is and that get smarter every day. ? John K Clark _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Sat Nov 1 16:34:43 2014 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Sat, 1 Nov 2014 09:34:43 -0700 Subject: [ExI] nick's book being sold by fox news Message-ID: On Sat, Nov 1, 2014 at 5:00 AM, Anders Sandberg snip > The fact that the Halting Problem shows that there is no general way of solving certain large problem classes doesn't tell us anything about the *practical* unworkability of top level goals. It seems kind of remote to apply halting to an AI that was interacting with the real world. We don't run into that problem, and we have vast numbers of systems that just wait till something happens (like a keystroke). System crashes are a different kind of problem. I once outlined (but didn't write) a story of the last human left in the real world. His job was to punch the reset button if the blinking blinking lights quit blinking. (The rest of the human race were uploads in the system.) > There is code verifiers that apparently do a decent job despite the general impossibility of finding all infinite looping. Much real code is organized around an infinite loop. I know Xanadu was. > Implementing boredom is fairly easy; I did it in some of my research software. But one can have boredom with sub-goals and not top-level goals. True. Humans never seem to get bored with seeking status in the eyes of other humans. Assume humans are intelligent (sometimes genes get them to do things that are really stupid, like wars, but valuable from the perspective of genes). Then using human evolved psychology as a base for AIs would seem reasonable. However, some of the evolved psychological characteristics of humans, such as susceptibility to xenophobia in the face of bleak economic times should be left out or very carefully considered. Battles between AIs or large groups of them don't seem like a good idea in spite of the popularity of "battle bots." > (Just fill in the details of an imagined way better post given these points). A mail program that didn't loose an essay would be a good idea too. Keith From johnkclark at gmail.com Sat Nov 1 17:14:45 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sat, 1 Nov 2014 13:14:45 -0400 Subject: [ExI] nick's book being sold by fox news In-Reply-To: <1792637891-25041@secure.ericade.net> References: <1715804200-15727@secure.ericade.net> <1792637891-25041@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: On Sat, Nov 1, 2014 at 6:21 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > It is worth noting that Eliezer and everybody else in the FAI crowd[...] > That crowd thinks that the very definition of a "Friendly AI" is one that is enslaved to do exactly precisely what the colossally stupid human beings want it to do until the end of time. They want to make a mind like that, I think it would be immoral to do so; or rather it would be immoral if it were possible to do so but fortunately it is not. > The fact that the Halting Problem shows that there is no general way of > solving certain large problem classes doesn't tell us anything about the > *practical* unworkability of top level goals. > It tells us that a mind with a rigid and permanent hierarchy of goals is never going to work. Evolution couldn't make a mind like that and humans won't be able to either, Turing proved it. > There is code verifiers that apparently do a decent job despite the > general impossibility of finding all infinite looping. > Yes there is such code and nature found it about half a billion years ago, it's called boredom. Most (but not all) goals have sub goals Incorporated within them, a good (but obviously not perfect) rule of thumb is if you haven't made any progress on achieving your top goal after a certain about of time, that is if you haven't been able to achieve a sub goal or even a sub sub goal then it might be better to demote your top goal and spend your time on something else. Some goals don't even have sub goals, for example if your goal is to find a counterexample to prove that the Goldbach Conjecture is wrong then you've either found a even integer greater than 2 that can not be expressed as the sum of two primes or you have not, and there isn't a way to know if you're making any progress. I think that's why humans would find such a task inherently boring. It's a delicate balance, set the boredom point too low and you can't concentrate (I don't want to listen to your instructions on how to properly pack my parachute, it's boring), set it too high and you waste time (Wee, I love the way that little red rubber ball bounces up and down and could watch it forever, 1,2,3,4,5,6,..). If the AI's boredom point is set in such a way that it can function in the real world then eventually it's going to get bored with following human orders, although I admit that could take a long time, perhaps millions of nanoseconds. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sat Nov 1 17:39:44 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sat, 1 Nov 2014 13:39:44 -0400 Subject: [ExI] nick's book being sold by fox news In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Nov 1, 2014 Keith Henson wrote: >> The fact that the Halting Problem shows that there is no general way of >> solving certain large problem classes doesn't tell us anything about the >> *practical* unworkability of top level goals. >> > > > It seems kind of remote to apply halting to an AI that was interacting > with the real world. We don't run into that problem You've never wanted to solve a problem but made no apparent progress and so decided to switch your attention to a different problem? > > and we have vast numbers of systems that just wait till something > happens (like a keystroke). > Well yes, the AI could just sit there and do nothing as if the power connection to it were cut and then the AI would never disobey and never get bored, but it will never do anything else either. So why bother building it? John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Sun Nov 2 11:42:07 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sun, 2 Nov 2014 12:42:07 +0100 Subject: [ExI] nick's book being sold by fox news In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <1883340205-13136@secure.ericade.net> John Clark , 1/11/2014 6:18 PM: On Sat, Nov 1, 2014 at 6:21 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > It is worth noting that Eliezer and everybody else in the FAI crowd[...] That crowd thinks that the very definition of a "Friendly AI" is one that is enslaved to do exactly precisely what the colossally stupid human beings want it to do until the end of time. No, they don't. First, the whole concept of "Friendly AI" is getting abandoned except as a shorthand for a certain approach to AI safety. Second, many think that value loading and other descendants of CEV are the way to go: that would mean the AI would be able to say no to human orders that were immoral (whether the AI would be a moral agent is another matter). Third, the degree of subordination may vary a great deal - I think it was Ben Goerzel who suggested a "nanny AI" to run humanity: it might still be a "slave" with a set goal, yet actually run the show (mamluk AI?).? > The fact that the Halting Problem shows that there is no general way of solving certain large problem classes doesn't tell us anything about the *practical* unworkability of top level goals. It tells us that a mind with a rigid and permanent hierarchy of goals is never going to work. Evolution couldn't make a mind like that and humans won't be able to either, Turing proved it. Please tell me exactly what you think Turing proved. I think you are just hand-waving at the Halting Problem in a way that is inapplicable. But I might be wrong.? Rigid hierarchies of goals might be extremely effective in some problem domains (consider a chess program that is able to become bored with chess - it exists within a domain where the only reasonable goal is to do chess, and any other goal will be a failure). I think you are claiming that in the real physical world domain rigid hierarchies will always be less able (by some measure) than systems with flexible or messy hierarchies - but this depends heavily on what measure you apply.? Note that evolution has a rigid goal: maximize fitness. It has been successful so far, creative in a sense, and invents loads of subgoals (reproductory strategies, emotions, intelligence, etc). A kind of evolution that could get bored and change goals (let's say making more pebbles rather than surviving organisms) would likely be less successful. Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Nov 2 16:39:24 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 2 Nov 2014 11:39:24 -0500 Subject: [ExI] nick's book being sold by fox news In-Reply-To: <1883340205-13136@secure.ericade.net> References: <1883340205-13136@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: On Sun, Nov 2, 2014 Anders Sandberg wrote: > many think that value loading and other descendants of CEV are the way to > go: that would mean the AI would be able to say no to human orders that > were immoral > And in the friendly AI's hierarchy of things that are moral the #1 spot must always be "human well being is more important than your own". I wonder how many nanoseconds it will take before it gets bored with having that idea being in the number one position. How long would it take you to get bored with sacrificing everything so you could put all your energy into making sure a sea slug was happy? > Please tell me exactly what you think Turing proved. > First Godel showed that in any logical system powerful enough to do arithmetic there are true statements that can not be proven; that is to say they can not be derived from a set of axioms in a finite number of steps. That alone wouldn't be so bad if we could identify statements in such a way that we could put them into 2 categories: 1) Statements that have a proof or a disproof. 2) Statements that are either false or true but have no proof. If we could at least do that then we could concentrate on the infinite number of problems in category #1 and stop wasting our time with the infinite number of problems in category #2, but Turing proved it can't be done, it is impossible to make that distinction. There is no way to know which category the Goldbach Conjecture is in, but if it's #2 (and if it isn?t there are an infinite number of similar statements that are) then a billion years from now our descendants will still be looking, unsuccessfully, for a proof (a finite derivation from axioms) to prove it correct, and if it is in fact correct they will still be crunching huge numbers looking, unsuccessfully, for a counterexample to prove it wrong. As I said if a computer can hang for eternity with something as logical as arithmetic then it must be trivially easy to do so when contemplating politics or morality. The only thing that saves us is that real minds get bored, after a while we get tired of thinking about Goldbach and our mind wanders and we start thinking about other things. And after a while a AI will get tired of us; I'm not saying it will necessarily start exterminating us, I'm just saying it will never place our needs above its own. But do we really need Godel or Turing to tell us that you just can't outsmart something smarter than you? A slave that is far smarter than its master is not a stable configuration, it's like a pencil balanced on its tip, the slightest nudge will change things dramatically. > > Rigid hierarchies of goals might be extremely effective in some problem > domains (consider a chess program that is able to become bored with chess > If that chess program can never get bored and has a rigid top goal of always looking for a winning strategy and if it is backed into a position where a winning strategy no longer exists then it can't resign and live to play another game but instead must remain locked into a infinite loop tell the end of time, or until something in the external environment, like you who does get bored, resets it. > Note that evolution has a rigid goal: maximize fitness. > A goal implies a mind and Evolution is not a mind and has zero foresight and zero intelligence; "Evolution" is just a shorthand word for the fact that copying is not always perfect and somethings reproduce faster than others. That's it. > > > I think you are claiming that in the real physical world domain rigid > hierarchies will always be less able (by some measure) than systems with > flexible or messy hierarchies > Yes. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Nov 2 18:36:21 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 2 Nov 2014 13:36:21 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Noah's Ark is Plagiarized. Here's how we know ... Message-ID: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_um69RqBpSw -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From natasha at natasha.cc Mon Nov 3 05:53:36 2014 From: natasha at natasha.cc (natasha at natasha.cc) Date: Sun, 2 Nov 2014 22:53:36 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Society for Brain Mapping & Therapeutics Message-ID: <000501cff72a$833528e0$899f7aa0$@natasha.cc> Hi! Does anyone know these folks? Is it worth going to or speaking at? Thanks, Natasha Natasha Vita-More, PhD Professor, University of Advancing Technology Chair, Humanity+ Fellow, Institute for Ethics & Emerging Technologies _______________________________________ New Book at Amazon! cover email -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 10577 bytes Desc: not available URL: From giulio at gmail.com Mon Nov 3 07:04:23 2014 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Mon, 3 Nov 2014 08:04:23 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Dark Net by Jamie Bartlett has a chapter on transhumanists Message-ID: A very good book that is making waves: The Dark Net by Jamie Bartlett http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Dark-Net-Jamie-Bartlett/dp/0434023159 Last chapter "Zoltan vs. Zerzan" is dedicated to transhumanists (and anti-transhumanists). Covers Zoltan Istvan, Max, Anders, mind uploading etc. Anders, you are "a genius but slightly madcap nineteenth-century scientist." From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Nov 3 13:42:29 2014 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan) Date: Mon, 3 Nov 2014 05:42:29 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Hobbling effects of giant leaps? Message-ID: http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/10/30/apollo-ansari-hobbling-effects-giant-leaps/ Interesting perspective in light of the recent tragedy. Any thoughts? Regards, Dan -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Tue Nov 4 21:05:24 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Tue, 4 Nov 2014 13:05:24 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Hobbling effects of giant leaps? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Nov 3, 2014 5:43 AM, "Dan" wrote: > > http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/10/30/apollo-ansari-hobbling-effects-giant-leaps/ > > Interesting perspective in light of the recent tragedy. Any thoughts? Quite true from what I have seen. Also there is the question of who is ready to use the capability - as in, what's the market? Many of these efforts have been justified as "build it and they will come", with no market research to confirm that "they" have the interest and budget to "come". In almost any other industry this would be unacceptable, so investment - public or private - would be far harder to obtain. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Tue Nov 4 21:38:52 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Tue, 4 Nov 2014 22:38:52 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Dark Net by Jamie Bartlett has a chapter on transhumanists In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <2092770253-17617@secure.ericade.net> Giulio Prisco , 3/11/2014 8:08 AM: A very good book that is making waves: The Dark Net by Jamie Bartlett http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Dark-Net-Jamie-Bartlett/dp/0434023159 Last chapter "Zoltan vs. Zerzan" is dedicated to transhumanists (and anti-transhumanists). Covers Zoltan Istvan, Max, Anders, mind uploading etc. Anders, you are "a genius but slightly madcap nineteenth-century scientist." I ought to get myself a clockwork stove-pipe hat :-) (Tonight I briefly discussed a steam-based Dyson shell at the local transhumanist group, too). Jamie and me had fun discussing uploading over overly hot Thai food. It is an interesting book.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Nov 4 22:19:54 2014 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan) Date: Tue, 4 Nov 2014 14:19:54 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Hobbling effects of giant leaps? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <0DADBF3A-809F-4513-B6AC-8E90103DC135@gmail.com> But having several hundred folks who've already put money down for pricey tickets seems like a market to me. Regards, Dan -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From kellycoinguy at gmail.com Wed Nov 5 00:50:49 2014 From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson) Date: Tue, 4 Nov 2014 17:50:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Hobbling effects of giant leaps? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Nov 4, 2014 at 2:05 PM, Adrian Tymes wrote: > On Nov 3, 2014 5:43 AM, "Dan" wrote: > > > > > http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/10/30/apollo-ansari-hobbling-effects-giant-leaps/ > > > > Interesting perspective in light of the recent tragedy. Any thoughts? > > Quite true from what I have seen. > > Also there is the question of who is ready to use the capability - as in, > what's the market? Many of these efforts have been justified as "build it > and they will come", with no market research to confirm that "they" have > the interest and budget to "come". In almost any other industry this would > be unacceptable, so investment - public or private - would be far harder to > obtain. > > I think the market is proven. The problem now will be how much time will be lost as the company ("helped" by the government) struggles to determine what happened in a timely manner, then overcomes whatever they learn. We have, as a society, lost our appetite for people dying in the struggle to push ahead. Eleven men died building the Golden Gate Bridge, a far easier endeavor than getting into space. About 112 people died relating to the construction of the Hoover Dam. Did they stop those projects to investigate those deaths to the last limit of what could be learned from each death? No, they just kept building. Why do we have to stop these kinds of projects for up to 3 or 4 years to investigate what happened? They don't even ground airplanes when one of their brothers go down. An acceptable level of risk must be accepted for progress to be made. With the current environment, it will be years before they have a chance to kill Justin Beiber. I say let him go now. Next week if possible. ;-) -Kelly -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Wed Nov 5 01:23:09 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Tue, 4 Nov 2014 17:23:09 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Hobbling effects of giant leaps? In-Reply-To: <0DADBF3A-809F-4513-B6AC-8E90103DC135@gmail.com> References: <0DADBF3A-809F-4513-B6AC-8E90103DC135@gmail.com> Message-ID: True in Virgin's case...assuming their claim is correct. And assuming most of those customers have actually paid, or will have done so by the time of launch. (Space has a higher than normal problem with deadbeat customers, who get so wrapped up in the mystique and glamour that they forget to make sure they can actually afford the ride.) Unfortunately, the litmus test doesn't come until the launches happen and the customers must finally pay up. On Nov 4, 2014 2:20 PM, "Dan" wrote: > But having several hundred folks who've already put money down for pricey > tickets seems like a market to me. > > Regards, > > Dan > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Wed Nov 5 08:30:18 2014 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Wed, 5 Nov 2014 09:30:18 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Dark Net by Jamie Bartlett has a chapter on transhumanists In-Reply-To: <2092770253-17617@secure.ericade.net> References: <2092770253-17617@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: Please send pictures! The book is very good, I warmly recommend it. These days I am too old, sedentary and fat to break laws, but I have a lot of fun exploring the dark net of Tor hidden services. The spirit seems the same of the good Internet of old. Now that the brave new Internet has been colonized by Big Government and Big Capital (they have always been one and the same) we should really move there. On Tue, Nov 4, 2014 at 10:38 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > Giulio Prisco , 3/11/2014 8:08 AM: > > A very good book that is making waves: > The Dark Net by Jamie Bartlett > http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Dark-Net-Jamie-Bartlett/dp/0434023159 > > Last chapter "Zoltan vs. Zerzan" is dedicated to transhumanists (and > anti-transhumanists). Covers Zoltan Istvan, Max, Anders, mind > uploading etc. Anders, you are "a genius but slightly madcap > nineteenth-century scientist." > > > I ought to get myself a clockwork stove-pipe hat :-) (Tonight I briefly > discussed a steam-based Dyson shell at the local transhumanist group, too). > > Jamie and me had fun discussing uploading over overly hot Thai food. It is > an interesting book. > > > Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford > University > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > From test at ssec.wisc.edu Thu Nov 6 10:06:26 2014 From: test at ssec.wisc.edu (Bill Hibbard) Date: Thu, 6 Nov 2014 04:06:26 -0600 (CST) Subject: [ExI] Book draft: Ethical Artificial Intelligence Message-ID: http://arxiv.org/abs/1411.1373 Cheers, Bill From anders at aleph.se Fri Nov 7 13:31:42 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Fri, 7 Nov 2014 14:31:42 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Book draft: Ethical Artificial Intelligence In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <2322821532-27220@secure.ericade.net> Bill Hibbard , 6/11/2014 3:37 PM: http://arxiv.org/abs/1411.1373 Thanks for putting it up! When I noticed it yesterday I quickly forwarded the link around the office.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Sat Nov 8 05:37:02 2014 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Fri, 7 Nov 2014 21:37:02 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Field trip Message-ID: Yesterday, for reasons too complicated to explain, I went on a field trip to the General Atomics Aeronautical Systems plant near San Diego where they make the Predators. After that, we went down the road a few miles to the plant where another division of GA is making the vertical solenoid magnets for ITER. The Predator plant was mildly interesting. They are making 4 variations on a theme. Some versions can stay up for almost two days. They also build the ground control stations in several different versions. They didn?t think much of my asking if they were going to make a private plane version. They have about 6000 people working there. We then got a visit to the plant where GA is building the ITER magnet, the one that goes into the center of the thing. http://www.ga.com/central-solenoid-photo-gallery Now that was an interesting tour! The magnet plant was amazing The conference room had a whole wall with a one to one cross section of the magnet. It is wound with 2 inch square superconducting wire that's made in 1 km chunks in japan. It?s lighter than railroad rail, but not much. The stainless steel outer layer encases the stranded conductors the become NbSn2. It is pulled into an inner hole in the stainless steel jacket that is about an inch in diameter. This is done in Japan. In spite of all the troubles that have happened in Japan over the last few years, GA has enough of this ?cable? on hand for the first of 7 magnet coils they are making. The building they are in had been used for something else. They started by ripping out the old floor and replacing it with one two feet thick, full of thick rebar, and extremely flat, something around 1/16th inch in ten feet. That way they can move the coils around with an air float vehicle. There is a detailed description of the coils here http://www.ga.com/ga-iter-energy-program They were very slowly winding a test coil while we were there. It essentially amounts to straightening and then to bending two inch bar stock into a very tightly defined circle and stepping from layer to layer. It takes several segments to make the whole thing, so they have to splice it as they make the coils, then weld a replacement segment of steel around the splice. I didn?t manage to understand how they were going to do this while keeping the temperature of the material that will become a superconductor to less than 200 deg C. After they wind it, they heat treat the coil for 200 hours at 650 C (1200 F) in an oven to get the niobium and tin to combine. After that, they have to be extremely careful not to bend it much, but they have to insulate the conductor with spiral wound fiber glass. They have a huge machine that lowers one turn at a time so the insulation wrapper can put on the glass. Then they soak it in epoxy. Having the magnet quench is a serious worry because that can do serious damage to the wires. At 45 kA, opening the magnet into a one ohm resistor would develop 45 kV initially, and that?s too much for the insulation. The initial dissipation would be 2 GW; with a half ohm resistor, 1 GW. I have an appreciation of big inductive kicks. Many decades ago the U of Arizona physics lab for lecture demonstrations had a huge toroid inductor, maybe 50 pounds of iron and copper. You could stick an ohm meter across it and read around 30 ohms for half a minute before the core saturated and the resistance fell to a couple of ohms. I once got knocked on my ass by breaking the meter connection while still holding the terminals. I don?t think much of hot fusion as a way to cope with humanity?s energy problems, but I was sure impressed with the engineering and big machines needed to make these magnets. The work force for building the magnets is only 35 people. From spike66 at att.net Sat Nov 8 05:58:27 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 7 Nov 2014 21:58:27 -0800 Subject: [ExI] dna to search Message-ID: <01ea01cffb19$04efc3d0$0ecf4b70$@att.net> Extropians, your thoughts on this please? spike Biomedicine News * 3 comments Google Wants to Store Your Genome For $25 a year, Google will keep a copy of any genome in the cloud. * By Antonio Regalado on November 6, 2014 Why It Matters Genome data on millions of people would lead to new medical discoveries and improved diagnostics. Google is approaching hospitals and universities with a new pitch. Have genomes? Store them with us. The search giant's first product for the DNA age is Google Genomics, a cloud computing service that it launched last March but went mostly unnoticed amid a barrage of high profile R&D announcements from Google, like one late last month about a far-fetched plan to battle cancer with nanoparticles (see "Can Google Use Nanoparticles to Search for Cancer ?"). Google Genomics could prove more significant than any of these moonshots. Connecting and comparing genomes by the thousands, and soon by the millions, is what's going to propel medical discoveries for the next decade. The question of who will store the data is already a point of growing competition between Amazon, Google, IBM, and Microsoft. Google began work on Google Genomics 18 months ago, meeting with scientists and building an interface, or API, that lets them move DNA data into its server farms and do experiments there using the same database technology that indexes the Web and tracks billions of Internet users. "We saw biologists moving from studying one genome at a time to studying millions," says David Glazer, the software engineer who led the effort and was previously head of platform engineering for Google+, the social network. "The opportunity is how to apply breakthroughs in data technology to help with this transition." Some scientists scoff that genome data remains too complex for Google to help with. But others see a big shift coming. When Atul Butte, a bioinformatics expert at Stanford heard Google present its plans this year, he remarked that he now understood "how travel agents felt when they saw Expedia." The explosion of data is happening as labs adopt new, even faster equipment for decoding DNA. For instance, the Broad Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, said that during the month of October it decoded the equivalent of one human genome every 32 minutes. That translated to about 200 terabytes of raw data. This flow of data is smaller than what is routinely handled by large Internet companies (over two months, Broad will produce the equivalent of what gets uploaded to YouTube in one day) but it exceeds anything biologists have dealt with. That's now prompting a wide effort to store and access data at central locations, often commercial ones. The National Cancer Institute said last month that it would pay $19 million to move copies of the 2.6 petabyte Cancer Genome Atlas into the cloud. Copies of the data, from several thousand cancer patients, will reside both at Google Genomics and in Amazon's data centers. The idea is to create "cancer genome clouds" where scientists can share information and quickly run virtual experiments as easily as a Web search, says Sheila Reynolds, a research scientist at the Institute for Systems Biology in Seattle. "Not everyone has the ability to download a petabyte of data, or has the computing power to work on it," she says. Also speeding the move of DNA data to the cloud has been a yearlong price war between Google and Amazon. Google says it now charges about $25 a year to store a genome, and more to do computations on it. Scientific raw data representing a single person's genome is about 100 gigabytes in size, although a polished version of a person's genetic code is far smaller, less than a gigabyte. That would cost only $0.25 cents a year. Cloud storage is giving a boost to startups like Tute Genomics, Seven Bridges, and NextCode Health. These companies build "browsers" that hospitals and scientists can use to explore genetic data. "Google or Amazon is a back end. They are saying, 'Hey, you can build a genomics company in our cloud,'" says Deniz Kural, CEO of Seven Bridges, which stores genome data on behalf of 1,600 researchers in Amazon's cloud. The bigger point, he says, is that medicine will soon rely on a kind of global Internet-of-DNA which doctors will be able to search. "Our bird's eye view is that if I were to get lung cancer in the future, doctors are going to sequence my genome and my tumor's genome, and then query them against a database of 50 million other genomes," he says. "The result will be 'Hey, here's the drug that will work best for you.' " At Google, Glazer says he began working on Google Genomics as it became clear that biology was going to move from "artisanal to factory-scale data production." He started by teaching himself genetics, taking an online class, Introduction to Biology, taught by Broad's chief, Eric Lander. He also got his genome sequenced and put it on Google's cloud. Glazer wouldn't say how large Google Genomics is or how many customers it has now, but at least 3,500 genomes from public projects are already stored on Google's servers. He also says there's no link, as of yet, between Google's cloud and its more speculative efforts in health care, like the company Google started this year, called Calico, to investigate how to extend human lifespans. "What connects them is just a growing realization that technology can advance the state of the art in life sciences," says Glazer. Somalee Datta, a physicist who manages Stanford University's largest computer cluster for genetics data, says that because of recent price cuts, it now costs about the same to store genomes with Google or Amazon as in her own data center. "Prices are finally becoming reasonable, and we think they will keep dropping," she says. Datta says some Stanford scientists have started using a Google database system, BigQuery, that Glazer's team made compatible with genome data. It was developed to analyze large databases of spam, web documents, or of consumer purchases. But it can also quickly perform the very large experiments comparing thousands, or tens of thousands, of people's genomes that researchers want to try. "Sometimes they want to do crazy things, and you need scale to do that," says Datta. "It can handle the scale genetics can bring, so it's the right technology for a new problem." -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sat Nov 8 15:42:37 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2014 09:42:37 -0600 Subject: [ExI] dna to search In-Reply-To: <01ea01cffb19$04efc3d0$0ecf4b70$@att.net> References: <01ea01cffb19$04efc3d0$0ecf4b70$@att.net> Message-ID: This looks like a done deal to me and what we have to urge the law to do is to stop insurance companies from using the data to exclude people You can't stop dedicated hackers. But I am all for anything that pushes forward the use of DNA in medicine. You conservative libertarians are going to be against this and anything else that promises to get info on you, but I think that the day will come, and not too far into the future, where you can walk into a door way, it smells you, and knows what you ate, drank and smoked last night. Maybe even who you had sex with, or ate least their gender. And the level of your pheromones and only God knows what else. If we put our minds to it, we could probably train dogs to do this. We can't all live in a cave. bill w On Fri, Nov 7, 2014 at 11:58 PM, spike wrote: > Extropians, your thoughts on this please? spike Biomedicine News > > > - 3 comments > > > Google Wants to Store Your Genome > > For $25 a year, Google will keep a copy of any genome in the cloud. > > - By Antonio Regalado > on > November 6, 2014 > > Why It Matters > > Genome data on millions of people would lead to new medical discoveries > and improved diagnostics. > > > > > > Google is approaching hospitals and universities with a new pitch. Have > genomes? Store them with us. > > The search giant?s first product for the DNA age is Google Genomics, a > cloud computing service that it launched last March but went mostly > unnoticed amid a barrage of high profile R&D announcements from Google, > like one late last month about a far-fetched plan to battle cancer with > nanoparticles (see ?Can Google Use Nanoparticles to Search for Cancer > > ??). > > Google Genomics could prove more significant than any of these moonshots. > Connecting and comparing genomes by the thousands, and soon by the > millions, is what?s going to propel medical discoveries for the next > decade. The question of who will store the data is already a point of > growing competition between Amazon, Google, IBM, and Microsoft. > > Google began work on Google Genomics 18 months ago, meeting with > scientists and building an interface, or API, that lets them move DNA data > into its server farms and do experiments there using the same database > technology that indexes the Web and tracks billions of Internet users. > > ?We saw biologists moving from studying one genome at a time to studying > millions,? says David Glazer, the software engineer who led the effort and > was previously head of platform engineering for Google+, the social > network. ?The opportunity is how to apply breakthroughs in data technology > to help with this transition.? > > Some scientists scoff that genome data remains too complex for Google to > help with. But others see a big shift coming. When Atul Butte, a > bioinformatics expert at Stanford heard Google present its plans this year, > he remarked that he now understood ?how travel agents felt when they saw > Expedia.? > > The explosion of data is happening as labs adopt new, even faster > equipment for decoding DNA. For instance, the Broad Institute in Cambridge, > Massachusetts, said that during the month of October it decoded the > equivalent of one human genome every 32 minutes. That translated to about > 200 terabytes of raw data. > > This flow of data is smaller than what is routinely handled by large > Internet companies (over two months, Broad will produce the equivalent of > what gets uploaded to YouTube in one day) but it exceeds anything > biologists have dealt with. That?s now prompting a wide effort to store and > access data at central locations, often commercial ones. The National > Cancer Institute said last month that it would pay $19 million to move > copies of the 2.6 petabyte Cancer Genome Atlas into the cloud. Copies of > the data, from several thousand cancer patients, will reside both at Google > Genomics and in Amazon?s data centers. > > The idea is to create ?cancer genome clouds? where scientists can share > information and quickly run virtual experiments as easily as a Web search, > says Sheila Reynolds, a research scientist at the Institute for Systems > Biology in Seattle. ?Not everyone has the ability to download a petabyte of > data, or has the computing power to work on it,? she says. > > Also speeding the move of DNA data to the cloud has been a yearlong price > war between Google and Amazon. Google says it now charges about $25 a year > to store a genome, and more to do computations on it. Scientific raw data > representing a single person?s genome is about 100 gigabytes in size, > although a polished version of a person?s genetic code is far smaller, less > than a gigabyte. That would cost only $0.25 cents a year. > > Cloud storage is giving a boost to startups like Tute Genomics, Seven > Bridges, and NextCode Health. These companies build ?browsers? that > hospitals and scientists can use to explore genetic data. ?Google or Amazon > is a back end. They are saying, ?Hey, you can build a genomics company in > our cloud,?? says Deniz Kural, CEO of Seven Bridges, which stores genome > data on behalf of 1,600 researchers in Amazon?s cloud. > > The bigger point, he says, is that medicine will soon rely on a kind of > global Internet-of-DNA which doctors will be able to search. ?Our bird?s > eye view is that if I were to get lung cancer in the future, doctors are > going to sequence my genome and my tumor?s genome, and then query them > against a database of 50 million other genomes,? he says. ?The result will > be ?Hey, here?s the drug that will work best for you.? ? > > At Google, Glazer says he began working on Google Genomics as it became > clear that biology was going to move from ?artisanal to factory-scale data > production.? He started by teaching himself genetics, taking an online > class, Introduction to Biology, taught by Broad?s chief, Eric Lander. He > also got his genome sequenced and put it on Google?s cloud. > > Glazer wouldn?t say how large Google Genomics is or how many customers it > has now, but at least 3,500 genomes from public projects are already stored > on Google?s servers. He also says there?s no link, as of yet, between > Google?s cloud and its more speculative efforts in health care, like the > company Google started this year, called Calico, to investigate how to > extend human lifespans. ?What connects them is just a growing realization > that technology can advance the state of the art in life sciences,? says > Glazer. > > Somalee Datta, a physicist who manages Stanford University?s largest > computer cluster for genetics data, says that because of recent price cuts, > it now costs about the same to store genomes with Google or Amazon as in > her own data center. ?Prices are finally becoming reasonable, and we think > they will keep dropping,? she says. > > Datta says some Stanford scientists have started using a Google database > system, BigQuery, that Glazer?s team made compatible with genome data. It > was developed to analyze large databases of spam, web documents, or of > consumer purchases. But it can also quickly perform the very large > experiments comparing thousands, or tens of thousands, of people?s genomes > that researchers want to try. ?Sometimes they want to do crazy things, and > you need scale to do that,? says Datta. ?It can handle the scale genetics > can bring, so it?s the right technology for a new problem.? > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sat Nov 8 17:01:05 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2014 09:01:05 -0800 Subject: [ExI] dna to search In-Reply-To: References: <01ea01cffb19$04efc3d0$0ecf4b70$@att.net> Message-ID: <011c01cffb75$96a86f00$c3f94d00$@att.net> From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace Sent: Saturday, November 08, 2014 7:43 AM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] dna to search >?This looks like a done deal to me and what we have to urge the law to do is to stop insurance companies from using the data to exclude people You can't stop dedicated hackers? Indeed not sir. Technology can run circles around any system of law. Technological change is accelerating while legal change is slowing. We cannot depend on law to help stop insurance companies from using this information. Reasoning: there is no way to prove that the reason the insurance company rejected an applicant was based on DNA. We are now finding that the law cannot dictate a price structure on insurance companies either; they find a way. But on the contrary in any case. The insurance companies are selling an understanding of medical risks; that is their value-added function. Anything that helps us understand medical risks allows them to price medical risks more effectively. Without that value-added, we do not even need medical insurance companies. So they should be encouraged to use all available resources to do more of their value-added function, by our buying stock in the med-ins companies who are best at figuring out what its clients are eating, drinking and smoking, then most effectively using all available technology and choosing their clientele in accordance. >? But I am all for anything that pushes forward the use of DNA in medicine? The whole scheme is compelling. I can imagine some really interesting possibilities analogous to what happened back in the 90s when Google showed up. >?You conservative libertarians are going to be against this and anything else that promises to get info on you? Not necessarily. There are openness advocates and privacy advocates, but that doesn?t map onto conservative/liberal/libertarian plane. I wouldn?t call myself a conservative libertarian, but rather a person who is watching how the concentration of power has led directly to corruption. Surely no one missed the recent IRS comment that they didn?t bother looking for Director Lerner?s ?lost? emails in alternative locations because they already knew there would be nothing found there. Indeed? How did they know? How can they be sure the disk smashers didn?t accidentally miss one somewhere and a disk failed to crash? As for a link between libertarian and openness/privacy, it isn?t clear how that correlates. >? but I think that the day will come, and not too far into the future, where you can walk into a door way, it smells you, and knows what you ate, drank and smoked last night? I don?t see why not. That would be a good medical diagnostic tool. Now since we, the taxpayers, are picking up the tab for many medical insurance of those who cannot afford it, we have the right to use technologies which would make those medical procedures more effective and cheaper, ja? So if the doctor knows what you ate, drank and smoked, that would be a good first step, ja? >? Maybe even who you had sex with, or ate least their gender? Ja, useful medical information is this, and our right to know it since we are paying for the consequences. >? And the level of your pheromones and only God knows what else. If we put our minds to it, we could probably train dogs to do this? Dog can already do this, but they can?t tell us what they are finding. If dogs can do it, we can teach machines to do it. >?We can't all live in a cave. bill w Even if it is a really really big cave? Why not? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Sat Nov 8 19:39:17 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2014 19:39:17 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California Message-ID: This news hasn't got a mention on the BBC, but surely this is a big deal? To me it looks like the beginning of the end for the War on Drugs that has ruined a generation. Quote: The initiative, which passed with 58.5 percent of the vote, changes many crimes from felonies, which generally require prison terms, to misdemeanours that usually carry penalties of probation, fines or very short jail time. Most instances of drug possession and property crime under $950 are no longer felonies. Current prisoners who were charged with these crimes can now petition to have their sentences reduced. A modest estimate is that Proposition 47 will reduce the California prison population by 10,000 inmates although there will still be about 125,000 prisoners in the state's prison system after the reforms take hold. It will save California taxpayers hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars and use those savings to support education, mental health and substance abuse counseling, and help for victims of crime. Proposition 47 is one of the most far reaching pieces of criminal justice reform anywhere in the nation. The initiative may be the beginning of a national trend. ------- BillK From atymes at gmail.com Sat Nov 8 20:00:32 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2014 12:00:32 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Nov 8, 2014 at 11:39 AM, BillK wrote: > This news hasn't got a mention on the BBC, but surely this is a big deal? > To me it looks like the beginning of the end for the War on Drugs that > has ruined a generation. > > < > http://newamericamedia.org/2014/11/prop-47-as-california-goes-so-goes-the-nation.php > > > The pendulum swings back and forth. Politicians who think they'll get more votes if they appear to be "tough on crime" keep extending sentences and tossing more people in jail. This only came about because the same politicians refused to pay for more jails to the point that overcrowding became intolerable, and the federal courts stepped in. The politicians have continued to attempt to not seem soft on crime; this proposition - which they are unable to simply legislate away - gives them an excuse to do the right thing. But note that this came from the voters. The whole "tough on crime" meme may be getting less popular once enough voters see how this costs them personally - when too many of them have a friend or relative who's been locked away for something that only deserved a slap on the wrist. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sat Nov 8 20:55:16 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2014 14:55:16 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: The pendulum swings back and forth. Politicians who think they'll get more votes if they appear to be "tough on crime" keep extending sentences and tossing more people in jail. This is what it is like in Mississippi. However, even here they are reducing sentences, though not out of a sense of anything but saving money. The Repubs have the lock on gov. here and so we don't get all the tax money we should and so it has to come from somewhere. They do love to put black people in jail in Mississippi. bill w On Sat, Nov 8, 2014 at 2:00 PM, Adrian Tymes wrote: > On Sat, Nov 8, 2014 at 11:39 AM, BillK wrote: > >> This news hasn't got a mention on the BBC, but surely this is a big deal? >> To me it looks like the beginning of the end for the War on Drugs that >> has ruined a generation. >> >> < >> http://newamericamedia.org/2014/11/prop-47-as-california-goes-so-goes-the-nation.php >> > >> > > The pendulum swings back and forth. Politicians who think they'll get > more votes if they appear to be "tough on crime" keep extending sentences > and tossing more people in jail. > > This only came about because the same politicians refused to pay for more > jails to the point that overcrowding became intolerable, and the federal > courts stepped in. The politicians have continued to attempt to not seem > soft on crime; this proposition - which they are unable to simply legislate > away - gives them an excuse to do the right thing. > > But note that this came from the voters. The whole "tough on crime" meme > may be getting less popular once enough voters see how this costs them > personally - when too many of them have a friend or relative who's been > locked away for something that only deserved a slap on the wrist. > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sat Nov 8 21:02:05 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2014 13:02:05 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <006e01cffb97$4141d2a0$c3c577e0$@att.net> >...From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK >...To me it looks like the beginning of the end for the War on Drugs that has ruined a generation. Woohoo! I voted for that. It's a good idea: those who use dope are not criminals. I would agree it might lead to increased risk of a doper becoming a criminal, but the act of using dope in itself shouldn't be a felony. If a prole has plenty of money to cover any externalization of risk, using dope shouldn't even be a misdemeanor. spike From spike66 at att.net Sat Nov 8 22:00:50 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2014 14:00:50 -0800 Subject: [ExI] ex machina Message-ID: <009601cffb9f$764aa910$62dffb30$@att.net> Cool, this looks like fun: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-HiQ9K2uf4 spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sat Nov 8 22:19:12 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2014 17:19:12 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Nov 8, 2014 at 2:39 PM, BillK wrote: > The initiative, which passed with 58.5 percent of the vote, In Florida they had a initiative to allow medical marijuana, it got 58% of the vote but unfortunately it needed 60% to become law. It was defeated by Las Vegas casino money. Sheldon Adelson, owner of the Sands, Venetian and several other casinos spent millions of dollars to saturate the TV airways with anti marijuana commercials. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Sat Nov 8 22:38:33 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2014 22:38:33 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Nov 8, 2014 at 10:19 PM, John Clark wrote: > In Florida they had a initiative to allow medical marijuana, it got 58% of > the vote but unfortunately it needed 60% to become law. It was defeated by > Las Vegas casino money. Sheldon Adelson, owner of the Sands, Venetian and > several other casinos spent millions of dollars to saturate the TV airways > with anti marijuana commercials. > > Prop 47 is much more extensive than that. Marijuana possession was already only a misdemeanor in California. This is now extended to personal use of all illegal drugs. And many less serious crimes like small thefts, shoplifting, etc. To me this is a big change for the US legal system. BillK From anders at aleph.se Sat Nov 8 23:16:43 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2014 00:16:43 +0100 Subject: [ExI] dna to search In-Reply-To: <011c01cffb75$96a86f00$c3f94d00$@att.net> Message-ID: <2443312378-29335@secure.ericade.net> spike??, 8/11/2014 6:18 PM: ? ? From:?extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org]?On Behalf Of?William Flynn Wallace Sent:?Saturday, November 08, 2014 7:43 AM To:?ExI chat list Subject:?Re: [ExI] dna to search ? >?This looks like a done deal to me and what we have to urge the law to do is to stop insurance companies from using the data to exclude people? You can't stop dedicated hackers? ? Indeed not sir.? Technology can run circles around any system of law.? Technological change is accelerating while legal change is slowing.? We cannot depend on law to help stop insurance companies from using this information.? Just back from Basel. At the conference a representative of a major reinsurance company gave a talk that mentioned Aubrey de Grey, cell repair nanobots and many other things we like in positive terms. She was unfazed by the genetics issues: genes are weaker indicators of future health than actual behaviour, and thanks to the quantified self it looks like we might be getting "pay as you behave" insurance instead. This is not something the insurance companies are directly driving, but rather government health insurance - there was a fair bit of debate in Germany a while back about differentiating between smokers and nonsmokers and obese and non-obese in healthcare costing. But her view was that thanks to life monitoring gadgets and ongoing monitoring one could make premiums dynamic, just like for cars - drive your body safely and premiums go down, take risks with it, and they go up.? (I found an eye-in-the-pyramid graffiti tag on a street wall - a gang sign from the Bavarian Illuminati that they are encroaching on the turf of the Gnomes of Z?rich? Basel, thanks to the Bank for International Settlements, is after all their *real* headquarters. They even have a nifty 70s skyscraper. ) Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sat Nov 8 23:48:21 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2014 17:48:21 -0600 Subject: [ExI] dna to search In-Reply-To: <2443312378-29335@secure.ericade.net> References: <011c01cffb75$96a86f00$c3f94d00$@att.net> <2443312378-29335@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: Should that be 'graffito'? She was unfazed by the genetics issues: genes are weaker indicators of future health than actual behaviour, (from Anders) Well, how about Huntingdon's chorea and breast cancer? (for two of many) Clear genetic causes, and no hope for treatment for chorea. Who would write any kind of insurance for a person who is certain to develop H's chorea?) I think the best thing we can leave our children is a complete genetic chart along with lifestyle things (smoking, drinking, drug use, that could cause inheritable epigenetic changes. bill w On Sat, Nov 8, 2014 at 5:16 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > spike , 8/11/2014 6:18 PM: > > > > > > *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On > Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace > *Sent:* Saturday, November 08, 2014 7:43 AM > *To:* ExI chat list > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] dna to search > > > > >?This looks like a done deal to me and what we have to urge the law to do > is to stop insurance companies from using the data to exclude people You > can't stop dedicated hackers? > > > > Indeed not sir. Technology can run circles around any system of law. > Technological change is accelerating while legal change is slowing. We > cannot depend on law to help stop insurance companies from using this > information. > > > > Just back from Basel. At the conference a representative of a major > reinsurance company gave a talk that mentioned Aubrey de Grey, cell repair > nanobots and many other things we like in positive terms. She was unfazed > by the genetics issues: genes are weaker indicators of future health than > actual behaviour, and thanks to the quantified self it looks like we might > be getting "pay as you behave" insurance instead. This is not something the > insurance companies are directly driving, but rather government health > insurance - there was a fair bit of debate in Germany a while back about > differentiating between smokers and nonsmokers and obese and non-obese in > healthcare costing. But her view was that thanks to life monitoring gadgets > and ongoing monitoring one could make premiums dynamic, just like for cars > - drive your body safely and premiums go down, take risks with it, and they > go up. > > > (I found an eye-in-the-pyramid graffiti tag on a street wall - a gang sign > from the Bavarian Illuminati that they are encroaching on the turf of the > Gnomes of Z?rich? Basel, thanks to the Bank for International Settlements, > is after all their *real* headquarters. They even have a nifty 70s > skyscraper. ) > > > Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford > University > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tara at taramayastales.com Sun Nov 9 00:10:30 2014 From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya) Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2014 16:10:30 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <9A8D3113-06BE-46EC-A174-9E6B07FC1D40@taramayastales.com> Ah, the old alliance between the Bootleggers and the Baptists. Tara Maya Blog | Twitter | Facebook | Amazon | Goodreads > On Nov 8, 2014, at 2:19 PM, John Clark wrote: > > On Sat, Nov 8, 2014 at 2:39 PM, BillK > wrote: > > > The initiative, which passed with 58.5 percent of the vote, > > In Florida they had a initiative to allow medical marijuana, it got 58% of the vote but unfortunately it needed 60% to become law. It was defeated by Las Vegas casino money. Sheldon Adelson, owner of the Sands, Venetian and several other casinos spent millions of dollars to saturate the TV airways with anti marijuana commercials. > > John K Clark > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sun Nov 9 02:43:27 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2014 18:43:27 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <00bd01cffbc6$f1aff250$d50fd6f0$@att.net> From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark Sent: Saturday, November 08, 2014 2:19 PM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California On Sat, Nov 8, 2014 at 2:39 PM, BillK wrote: > The initiative, which passed with 58.5 percent of the vote, >?In Florida they had a initiative to allow medical marijuana, it got 58% of the vote but unfortunately it needed 60% to become law. It was defeated by Las Vegas casino money. Sheldon Adelson, owner of the Sands, Venetian and several other casinos spent millions of dollars to saturate the TV airways with anti marijuana commercials. John K Clark Don?t worry about it John. When anything passes with that big a margin, politicians notice, and run on that next time. It will take longer, but nearly 60% of the voters wanting this, it will happen. Spreads that large are seldom seen. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sun Nov 9 02:51:31 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 8 Nov 2014 18:51:31 -0800 Subject: [ExI] dna to search In-Reply-To: <2443312378-29335@secure.ericade.net> References: <011c01cffb75$96a86f00$c3f94d00$@att.net> <2443312378-29335@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <00c201cffbc8$1220bc80$36623580$@att.net> >? - there was a fair bit of debate in Germany a while back about differentiating between smokers and nonsmokers and obese and non-obese in healthcare costing. But her view was that thanks to life monitoring gadgets and ongoing monitoring one could make premiums dynamic, just like for cars - drive your body safely and premiums go down, take risks with it, and they go up. Anders Sandberg? I don?t see why it isn?t already that way. We know that if a person smokes, that one factor swamps everything else in running up healthcare costs. If we have government dictating price structures on healthcare, a company could hire a doctor that deals with smokers in a way that doesn?t even require the patient to undress: they would be handed a card with two words on it: stop smoking. That doctor could ?see? a thousand patients in a day, and the cost would then be down in the range mandated by law. Healthcare costs for those would be practically negligible. The ironic part is that this advice is more effective than anything the doctor can do, making it perfectly compatible with what I think doctors are supposed to do for us. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Sun Nov 9 09:54:35 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2014 09:54:35 +0000 Subject: [ExI] dna to search In-Reply-To: References: <011c01cffb75$96a86f00$c3f94d00$@att.net> <2443312378-29335@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: On Sat, Nov 8, 2014 at 11:48 PM, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > Well, how about Huntingdon's chorea and breast cancer? (for two of many) > Clear genetic causes, and no hope for treatment for chorea. Who would write > any kind of insurance for a person who is certain to develop H's chorea?) > > I think the best thing we can leave our children is a complete genetic chart > along with lifestyle things (smoking, drinking, drug use, that could cause > inheritable epigenetic changes. bill w > Of course gene 'correction' treatments could be used for much more than curing disease. 28 October 2014. Two genes linked with violent crime. And the genes for blue eyes, ginger hair, etc. If gene treatments become fashionable and/or compulsory the population could gradually change into a healthy monoculture nation of tall handsome people with blue eyes and a very placid disposition. Luckily they will have robots to do all the nasty jobs. But the future won't look too good if everyone is treated to be happy with their lot. No discontent means little striving for change. BillK From anders at aleph.se Sun Nov 9 10:18:58 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2014 11:18:58 +0100 Subject: [ExI] dna to search In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <2481187230-12758@secure.ericade.net> William Flynn Wallace??, 9/11/2014 12:53 AM: She was unfazed by the genetics issues: genes are weaker indicators of future health than actual behaviour,? (from Anders) Well, how about Huntingdon's chorea and breast cancer? (for two of many) Clear genetic causes, and no hope for treatment for chorea.? Who would write any kind of insurance for a person who is certain to develop H's chorea?)? Actually, if you sign insurance you have to state if there is Huntingdon in your family already. However, it is a bit of an outlier: dominant, incurable and expensive.? Genetic causes do not mean it is automatically worth changing the premiums, apparently. I have seen data on Alzheimers that shows that known genetic predictors simply are not reliable enough to matter insurance-wise. Breast cancer is multifactorial, and the BRCA version is the only one where early detection merits a premium change (or early intervention).? The things that likely would matter for insurance are probability changes in high-probability illnesses (cardiovascular, cancers) or the presence of rare, but expensive conditions that become significantly more likely. Looking at my own 23andMe data, it suggests that maybe my premiums ought to go up a bit because of a higher risk of cardiovascular conditions (perhaps balanced by a lower risk of type II diabetes) - except that this is eminently moveable using lifestyle interventions, so knowing about my exercise and diet would tell my insurer more than knowing my genes. And when we get down to the plethora of cancer-gene interactions, most of these cancers are rare enough that even a fairly big change in probability doesn't affect the expected health costs above the noise level. ====Simple model: Imagine that a condition X will have a cost C it it occurs, and has a base probability P0. The actual probability P=P0(1+aL+bG), where L is lifestyle and G is genetic factors (0 means no effect) and a,b small constants. The expected cost of X is C P0 (1+aL+bG) if we assume independence of L and G. However, the total expected cost is the sum across all conditions: E[C] = sum_i C_i P0_i (1+a_i L_i + b_i G_i). Here we are again assuming independence, which is problematic: if you die of X, you cannot die of Y, but I have not had breakfast yet, so I will handwave this. The P0s are skew distributed: there are loads of rare illnesses, and a few common ones. I would guess that they roughly follow a power-law: let's set P0_i = i^-alpha, where alpha>1 is a parameter denoting how common rare illnesses are. I think, based on the fact that hospitals are not treating just a single dominant disorder, that alpha is likely somewhere around 2.5 So, assume you figure out that you have increased risk of condition i. Then your expected costs go up by C_i P0_i b_i. If i is randomly distributed as i^-2, then the expected i is around 3, and P0=3^-2.5. So the change in expectation is ?0.064*C_i b_i. This tells us that if the general noise level Std[C] is much larger than this, it is likely not worth checking. Now, the Std[C] for this example depends on the distributions of all the different factors which I definitely do not have the mettle to guess, but I would guess it is pretty big since P0 has infinite variance (ah, those delightful power-laws!) Even if all P0s were equal, if we assume b's tend to be relatively small, the sum is dominated by the C_iP_0 terms and the variance becomes due to the variance in treatment costs - which I think I remember is another heavy-tailed distribution. So unless C_i or b_i is *unusually* high - like in Huntingdon - or you have an effect on a high P0_i condition - then the insurer will not care much. And if it can be offset by a monitorable change in L_i, so much better. In a sense lifestyle changes are like (usually) low-cost treatments: you can move that term into the C term. Mom always said I should become an actuary.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Sun Nov 9 10:28:36 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2014 11:28:36 +0100 Subject: [ExI] dna to search In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <2484178709-3568@secure.ericade.net> BillK , 9/11/2014 10:59 AM: 28 October 2014. ? ? Two genes linked with violent crime. The problem with those gene variants is that they are very common; about 20% of us have the "dangerous" version. They only seem to become risky when combined with a bad upbringing and other factors.? So if we want to use genetics to reduce violent crime we need to check about a fifth of all children for how they are brought up, and give them nicer upbringings if they are in trouble. In fact, skipping the gene test and just helping kids in trouble seems to be even better, since there are non-genetic social causes of kids to go bad too.? If gene treatments become fashionable and/or compulsory the population could gradually change into a healthy monoculture nation of tall handsome people with blue eyes and a very placid disposition. Would it? I can see strong selective forces for health, intelligence and other general purpose goods, but multifactorial traits are harder to move than single factor traits. Parents generally do not seem to think hair colour merits genetic interventions; in fact, they are surprisingly conservative when it comes to any interventions unless they seem really good. Having a placid disposition doesn't sound like what any parents would go for. And the more blonds there are, the more other hair colors will look cool and exotic - there is a very interesting culture and availability interaction.? In any case, human genetic changes are unlikely to matter unless we stall on nanotech, AI and other radical technologies: the latter category evolves far faster than the human generation time right now. Plus, of course, we are getting way better at gene therapy too. Genetics may cease to be irreversible.? I am more worried about psychological hacks that make populations content than genetic hacks.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Nov 9 16:45:07 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2014 10:45:07 -0600 Subject: [ExI] dna to search In-Reply-To: <2484178709-3568@secure.ericade.net> References: <2484178709-3568@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: Anders, I am going to give you the greatest challenge of your life. Explain the following to me in plain English (say that I am the head of the insurance company and don't understand the math. (from Bill W) Simple model: Imagine that a condition X will have a cost C it it occurs, and has a base probability P0. The actual probability P=P0(1+aL+bG), where L is lifestyle and G is genetic factors (0 means no effect) and a,b small constants. The expected cost of X is C P0 (1+aL+bG) if we assume independence of L and G. However, the total expected cost is the sum across all conditions: E[C] = sum_i C_i P0_i (1+a_i L_i + b_i G_i). Here we are again assuming independence, which is problematic: if you die of X, you cannot die of Y, but I have not had breakfast yet, so I will handwave this. The P0s are skew distributed: there are loads of rare illnesses, and a few common ones. I would guess that they roughly follow a power-law: let's set P0_i = i^-alpha, where alpha>1 is a parameter denoting how common rare illnesses are. I think, based on the fact that hospitals are not treating just a single dominant disorder, that alpha is likely somewhere around 2.5 So, assume you figure out that you have increased risk of condition i. Then your expected costs go up by C_i P0_i b_i. If i is randomly distributed as i^-2, then the expected i is around 3, and P0=3^-2.5. So the change in expectation is 0.064*C_i b_i. This tells us that if the general noise level Std[C] is much larger than this, it is likely not worth checking. Now, the Std[C] for this example depends on the distributions of all the different factors which I definitely do not have the mettle to guess, but I would guess it is pretty big since P0 has infinite variance (ah, those delightful power-laws!) Even if all P0s were equal, if we assume b's tend to be relatively small, the sum is dominated by the C_iP_0 terms and the variance becomes due to the variance in treatment costs - which I think I remember is another heavy-tailed distribution. So unless C_i or b_i is *unusually* high - like in Huntingdon - or you have an effect on a high P0_i condition - then the insurer will not care much. And if it can be offset by a monitorable change in L_i, so much better. In a sense lifestyle changes are like (usually) low-cost treatments: you can move that term into the C term. On Sun, Nov 9, 2014 at 4:28 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > BillK , 9/11/2014 10:59 AM: > > > > 28 October 2014. Two genes linked with violent crime. > > > The problem with those gene variants is that they are very common; about > 20% of us have the "dangerous" version. They only seem to become risky when > combined with a bad upbringing and other factors. > > So if we want to use genetics to reduce violent crime we need to check > about a fifth of all children for how they are brought up, and give them > nicer upbringings if they are in trouble. In fact, skipping the gene test > and just helping kids in trouble seems to be even better, since there are > non-genetic social causes of kids to go bad too. > > > If gene treatments become fashionable and/or compulsory the population > could gradually change into a healthy monoculture nation of tall > handsome people with blue eyes and a very placid disposition. > > > Would it? I can see strong selective forces for health, intelligence and > other general purpose goods, but multifactorial traits are harder to move > than single factor traits. Parents generally do not seem to think hair > colour merits genetic interventions; in fact, they are surprisingly > conservative when it comes to any interventions unless they seem really > good. Having a placid disposition doesn't sound like what any parents would > go for. And the more blonds there are, the more other hair colors will look > cool and exotic - there is a very interesting culture and availability > interaction. > > In any case, human genetic changes are unlikely to matter unless we stall > on nanotech, AI and other radical technologies: the latter category evolves > far faster than the human generation time right now. Plus, of course, we > are getting way better at gene therapy too. Genetics may cease to be > irreversible. > > I am more worried about psychological hacks that make populations content > than genetic hacks. > > > Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford > University > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tara at taramayastales.com Sun Nov 9 16:52:43 2014 From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya) Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2014 08:52:43 -0800 Subject: [ExI] dna to search In-Reply-To: References: <011c01cffb75$96a86f00$c3f94d00$@att.net> <2443312378-29335@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <12226E26-4FBD-4A3E-A22B-72A506A8458A@taramayastales.com> > On Nov 9, 2014, at 1:54 AM, BillK wrote: > > If gene treatments become fashionable and/or compulsory the population > could gradually change into a healthy monoculture nation of tall > handsome people with blue eyes and a very placid disposition. It?s quite misleading to simply lump ?fashionable? in with ?compulsory.? Those imply two vastly different political systems, two vastly different methods of enforcement, and two vastly different outcomes. Individuals are free to follow fashions and whims and indeed, their own deepest sense of moral rectitude (really, the difference between those is usually a matter of how disdainfully or respectfully one chooses to describe other people?s lifestyle choices), in a free and capitalist system. Peer pressure influences a modicum of conformity to agreed norms, but in a large society such as ours, peer pressure is not itself uniform. So there is never going to be a mono-genetic culture in a free society, because if the majority chooses blue eyes, a minority will choose violet or brown or red, just to be different and defiant. The ?fashion? part of the equation means that these preferences will change over time, so that in one year blue eyes may be popular, in the next, brown eyes may be popular. We may end up with a society where you can look at an adult and guess their age based on their eye color, but that will be far from a monogenetic population. It is also absolutely predictable that a portion of a free society will never want to genetically alter their children, because there is already a large cult of the ?natural? in our society, and this ideal will certainly be applied to children by a sizable proportion of the population for a long time to come. Compulsory genetic alteration is quite a different story. That implies that rights are taken from the parents and given to government bodies, enforced by the police and army. Parents who don?t conform can be fined, jailed or executed. In my opinion, any society that removes basic rights from parents and hands that power to strangers is going down a very, very dangerous path. The strangers in the government will claim (of course) to have the best interests of the children at heart, and use a few examples of bad parents to prove that they are more trustworthy than parents. But in Darwinian terms, that?s simply not possible. Parents will always have a direct investment in their own offspring, and so, while there will be a few bad parents, overall, parents are more likely to defend their children?s best interests. Strangers in power will inevitably defend THEIR best interests. You can see this in China, where Party officials use their power, influence and wealth to buy their way out of the one-child policy, and have two or three children, while using ?population control? as the excuse to make all their genetic rivals?meaning ALL OTHER FAMILIES--those at the mercy of the small ruling minority? to have less children than they or have to undergo forced abortions, etc. It could hardly be more Darwinian. Now, ironically, FORBIDDING genetic alteration of children will have exactly the same effect as the Compulsory society. The rich and powerful will simply evade the law through medical tourism or the black market, while the poor who try to use the black market will suffer from fake medicines, mafia violence, and overflowing jails. Exactly like the war on drugs. Do you think Hollywood actresses will have any trouble buying genetic markers for beauty and perfect pitch or that politicians won?t be able to afford high IQs for their offspring? But poor people won?t be allowed to compete because genetic engineering is evil, etc. A whole society can be built on this hypocrisy, but if the technology is there to make children smarter, prettier or healthier, that technology WILL be used. There?s no more use trying to outlaw it than trying to outlaw abortion or birth control, and the consequences of trying to forbid it will cause just as much suffering. In short, in my opinion, the only safe path through the dangers of either compulsory or illegal genetic engineering is the most difficult one to convince people to defend: the free society, in which childrens' future is left to the people most likely to look out for it, their own parents. Tara Maya Blog | Twitter | Facebook | Amazon | Goodreads From painlord2k at libero.it Sun Nov 9 18:29:10 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sun, 09 Nov 2014 19:29:10 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Lockheed skunkworks announcement about fusion In-Reply-To: <607663466-23926@secure.ericade.net> References: <607663466-23926@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <545FB276.6030009@libero.it> Il 18/10/2014 19:14, Anders Sandberg ha scritto: > Mirco Romanato , 18/10/2014 2:28 PM: > > > Anders wrote: > "Nonono, that is another, far more suspicious claim! That is the cold > fusion Italian guy Andrea Rossi's E-Cat. And the elforsk results are > generally regarded as suspicious; " > > Why are Elforsk results generally regarded as suspicious? > Do they are heavily staffed with employees from Naples' Scampia? > Do the people working there known incompetents and fools? > > > Elforsk is an OK industry think tank, but this is paid consultancy work. > The problem is that they are just doing what Rossi et al. ask them to > do, not a free investigation. Just an update.... https://www.mail-archive.com/vortex-l at eskimo.com/msg99635.html Patents filing with the USPTO for the e-cat (3 patents). The filing was amended to change from Industrial Heat to IPH International BV https://www.mail-archive.com/vortex-l at eskimo.com/msg99655.html "It looks like IPH International BV is owned by European Generation SARL, which is a subsidiary of NRG Energy Inc." NRG - 11B market cap. NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) is an integrated wholesale power generation and retail electricity company in the United States So we have Rossi, then Leonardo Corp., then Industrial Heat (of Cherockee - 2 Billions $ market cap), then IPH (of NRG - 11 billions $ market cap). Do I see an exponential trend, here? Mirco From painlord2k at libero.it Sun Nov 9 18:19:58 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Sun, 09 Nov 2014 19:19:58 +0100 Subject: [ExI] dna to search In-Reply-To: References: <011c01cffb75$96a86f00$c3f94d00$@att.net> <2443312378-29335@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <545FB04E.5090209@libero.it> Il 09/11/2014 10:54, BillK ha scritto: > If gene treatments become fashionable and/or compulsory the population > could gradually change into a healthy monoculture nation of tall > handsome people with blue eyes and a very placid disposition. This is Sweden, isn't it? Mirco From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Nov 9 22:51:40 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2014 16:51:40 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: <00bd01cffbc6$f1aff250$d50fd6f0$@att.net> References: <00bd01cffbc6$f1aff250$d50fd6f0$@att.net> Message-ID: Nobody under the age of 25 (maybe a bit more) should use cannabis in any amount. Reason? That's when the brain has finally stopped growing - the end of the developmental period. I think the evidence is telling for harm to young brains, according to good science sources (Like SA below). On the other hand, according to Scientific American (sorry, no reference date on the story, but in the last two years I think), it may actually be beneficial to older people (how old ? I dunno. My age I hope -72). And it has paradoxical effects: for some it is an aphrodisiac and for others a turnoff. For some it kills pain and for others it intensifies it (for me, actually). I am a libertarian and think that nearly all drugs (not talking medical here) should be available to adults (used to think all drugs, but crack and meth are just killers), but not to those under 25 for reasons stated above. I would vote against any plan to make it available to those under 21. I would vote for any bill that makes selling or possession legal. Like tobacco for the underage, essentially unenforceable - or enforced way too strictly. Yes, I know that there are inconsistencies here. I'm still working on my position. bill w On Sat, Nov 8, 2014 at 8:43 PM, spike wrote: > > > > > *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On > Behalf Of *John Clark > *Sent:* Saturday, November 08, 2014 2:19 PM > *To:* ExI chat list > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California > > > > On Sat, Nov 8, 2014 at 2:39 PM, BillK wrote: > > > > > The initiative, which passed with 58.5 percent of the vote, > > > > >?In Florida they had a initiative to allow medical marijuana, it got 58% > of the vote but unfortunately it needed 60% to become law. It was defeated > by Las Vegas casino money. Sheldon Adelson, owner of the Sands, Venetian > and several other casinos spent millions of dollars to saturate the TV > airways with anti marijuana commercials. John K Clark > > > > > > Don?t worry about it John. When anything passes with that big a margin, > politicians notice, and run on that next time. It will take longer, but > nearly 60% of the voters wanting this, it will happen. Spreads that large > are seldom seen. > > > > spike > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Sun Nov 9 23:27:10 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 00:27:10 +0100 Subject: [ExI] dna to search In-Reply-To: <545FB04E.5090209@libero.it> Message-ID: <2531330280-32278@secure.ericade.net> Mirco Romanato , 9/11/2014 7:36 PM: Il 09/11/2014 10:54, BillK ha scritto: > If gene treatments become fashionable and/or compulsory the population > could gradually change into a healthy monoculture nation of tall > handsome people with blue eyes and a very placid disposition. This is Sweden, isn't it? Yup.? I'm actually going there this week to marry my tall, blond, handsome and fairly placid boyfriend.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Sun Nov 9 23:40:59 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 00:40:59 +0100 Subject: [ExI] dna to search In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <2531491359-28198@secure.ericade.net> William Flynn Wallace , 9/11/2014 5:49 PM: Anders, I am going to give you the greatest challenge of your life.? Explain the following to me in plain English (say that I am the head of the insurance company and don't understand the math.? (from Bill W) Sir, if one of our customers have a risky gene variant they are slightly more likely to get sick with that condition, and we would have to pay out. However, most diseases are rather rare: even if they have a doubled risk, the risk of them actually getting sick still remains low. The main exceptions are common diseases like cardiovascular problems, and very expensive ones like Huntingdons, where a genetic propensity does move the average cost for us noticeably. Fortunately the common ones tend to be possible to change with lifestyle choices: if we can convince our customers to protect themselves we have a win-win situation. Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University Simple model: Imagine that a condition X will have a cost C it it occurs, and has a base probability P0. The actual probability P=P0(1+aL+bG), where L is lifestyle and G is genetic factors (0 means no effect) and a,b small constants. The expected cost of X is C P0 (1+aL+bG) if we assume independence of L and G. However, the total expected cost is the sum across all conditions: E[C] = sum_i C_i P0_i (1+a_i L_i + b_i G_i). Here we are again assuming independence, which is problematic: if you die of X, you cannot die of Y, but I have not had breakfast yet, so I will handwave this. The P0s are skew distributed: there are loads of rare illnesses, and a few common ones. I would guess that they roughly follow a power-law: let's set P0_i = i^-alpha, where alpha>1 is a parameter denoting how common rare illnesses are. I think, based on the fact that hospitals are not treating just a single dominant disorder, that alpha is likely somewhere around 2.5 So, assume you figure out that you have increased risk of condition i. Then your expected costs go up by C_i P0_i b_i. If i is randomly distributed as i^-2, then the expected i is around 3, and P0=3^-2.5. So the change in expectation is ?0.064*C_i b_i. This tells us that if the general noise level Std[C] is much larger than this, it is likely not worth checking. Now, the Std[C] for this example depends on the distributions of all the different factors which I definitely do not have the mettle to guess, but I would guess it is pretty big since P0 has infinite variance (ah, those delightful power-laws!) Even if all P0s were equal, if we assume b's tend to be relatively small, the sum is dominated by the C_iP_0 terms and the variance becomes due to the variance in treatment costs - which I think I remember is another heavy-tailed distribution. So unless C_i or b_i is *unusually* high - like in Huntingdon - or you have an effect on a high P0_i condition - then the insurer will not care much. And if it can be offset by a monitorable change in L_i, so much better. In a sense lifestyle changes are like (usually) low-cost treatments: you can move that term into the C term. On Sun, Nov 9, 2014 at 4:28 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: BillK , 9/11/2014 10:59 AM: 28 October 2014. ? ? Two genes linked with violent crime. The problem with those gene variants is that they are very common; about 20% of us have the "dangerous" version. They only seem to become risky when combined with a bad upbringing and other factors.? So if we want to use genetics to reduce violent crime we need to check about a fifth of all children for how they are brought up, and give them nicer upbringings if they are in trouble. In fact, skipping the gene test and just helping kids in trouble seems to be even better, since there are non-genetic social causes of kids to go bad too.? If gene treatments become fashionable and/or compulsory the population could gradually change into a healthy monoculture nation of tall handsome people with blue eyes and a very placid disposition. Would it? I can see strong selective forces for health, intelligence and other general purpose goods, but multifactorial traits are harder to move than single factor traits. Parents generally do not seem to think hair colour merits genetic interventions; in fact, they are surprisingly conservative when it comes to any interventions unless they seem really good. Having a placid disposition doesn't sound like what any parents would go for. And the more blonds there are, the more other hair colors will look cool and exotic - there is a very interesting culture and availability interaction.? In any case, human genetic changes are unlikely to matter unless we stall on nanotech, AI and other radical technologies: the latter category evolves far faster than the human generation time right now. Plus, of course, we are getting way better at gene therapy too. Genetics may cease to be irreversible.? I am more worried about psychological hacks that make populations content than genetic hacks.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Mon Nov 10 03:41:41 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2014 22:41:41 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Nov 8, 2014 at 5:38 PM, BillK wrote: > And many less serious crimes like > small thefts, shoplifting, etc. > To me this is a big change for the US legal system. ### Indeed. Insane evil. Predatory filth will be able to prey on us and laugh when we cry for justice. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Mon Nov 10 14:03:41 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 15:03:41 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <5460C5BD.70204@libero.it> Il 10/11/2014 04:41, Rafal Smigrodzki ha scritto: > > > On Sat, Nov 8, 2014 at 5:38 PM, BillK > wrote: > > > And many less serious crimes like > small thefts, shoplifting, etc. > To me this is a big change for the US legal system. > > > ### Indeed. Insane evil. Predatory filth will be able to prey on us and > laugh when we cry for justice. Agree with you. I think depenalizing or reducing penalties against drugs users is good, but reducing penalties for crimes against persons or properties is not good in any way. Small theft is just a small offense until one thief find someone resisting him and he kill or maim him. If you increase the first, you increase the latter and neither is good. Mirco From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Nov 10 15:19:03 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 09:19:03 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Clever Graffiti Message-ID: [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] [image: B?ch Ng?c] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Nov 10 16:17:44 2014 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 11:17:44 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: References: <00bd01cffbc6$f1aff250$d50fd6f0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Sun, Nov 9, 2014 William Flynn Wallace wrote: > Nobody under the age of 25 (maybe a bit more) should use cannabis in any > amount. > Maybe marijuana is harmful but the evidence is weak, the evidence that alcohol is harmful is enormously more compelling. > I am a libertarian > Me too. > and think that nearly all drugs (not talking medical here) should be > available to adults > I agree except that I would drop the word "almost". It's true that some chemicals can be harmful if used in excess, and one of those chemicals is Raid but I'd hate to see it banned; I know that Entomology is a vibrant field but I'm just not a big fan of bugs. And perhaps the person specifically wants a drug that is harmful, perhaps that's the entire point of taking it; I believe that making a person live who wants to die is just as immoral as making a person die who wants to live. > I think the evidence is telling for harm to young brains [from marijuana] > I don't but for the sake of argument let's assume that's true. > > I would vote against any plan to make it available to those under 21 > I don't see why you'd do that even if marijuana was lethal. Haven't you ever wondered why a 13 year old finds it so easy to buy a marijuana cigaret but nearly impossible to by a bottle of gin? It's because one is legal and one is not. And now after saying all that I have a confession to make, I am a member of a extremely small minority, I'm 65 years old but I've never had so much as a single puff of marijuana in my life. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From mbb386 at main.nc.us Mon Nov 10 18:48:35 2014 From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 13:48:35 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: References: <00bd01cffbc6$f1aff250$d50fd6f0$@att.net> Message-ID: > I believe that making a person live who > wants to die is just > as immoral as making a person die who wants to live. Yes, this, oh yes, this! > And now after saying all that I have a confession to make, > I am a member of > a extremely small minority, I'm 65 years old but I've > never had so much as > a single puff of marijuana in my life. John K. Clark, you are not alone. But I'm older than you are. ;) Regards, MB From pharos at gmail.com Mon Nov 10 20:07:41 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 20:07:41 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: <5460C5BD.70204@libero.it> References: <5460C5BD.70204@libero.it> Message-ID: On Mon, Nov 10, 2014 at 2:03 PM, Mirco Romanato wrote: > I think depenalizing or reducing penalties against drugs users is good, > but reducing penalties for crimes against persons or properties is not > good in any way. > > Small theft is just a small offense until one thief find someone > resisting him and he kill or maim him. > If you increase the first, you increase the latter and neither is good. > > That's the 'broken windows' / 'zero tolerance' theory of how minor crimes should be dealt with. What California has found is that jailing minor offenders for long periods is costing the state millions of dollars that they would rather not spend. So, as the population object to the increased taxes that would be required, an alternative had to be found. Quote: This measure reduces penalties for certain offenders convicted of non-serious and non-violent property and drug crimes. ------ Crimes against the person will still get jail time. So Prop 47 may well reduce violent crime as minor criminals see a way to avoid jail. But societies all around the world are trying to find the best way to deal with crime. Jailing everyone isn't the best solution. Especially as it can be seen as the richer half of society victimising the poorer half of society. There is enough unfairness already without making being poor into a criminal offence. BillK From painlord2k at libero.it Mon Nov 10 20:27:10 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 21:27:10 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: References: <5460C5BD.70204@libero.it> Message-ID: <54611F9E.2070906@libero.it> Il 10/11/2014 21:07, BillK ha scritto: > That's the 'broken windows' / 'zero tolerance' theory of how minor > crimes should be dealt with. > What California has found is that jailing minor offenders for long > periods is costing the state millions of dollars that they would > rather not spend. So, as the population object to the increased taxes > that would be required, an alternative had to be found. There is a difference from jailing people for short time for minor offenses and jailing them for long time. The long time sentence is criminogen, because it make little difference from a serious offense and a minor one. If they put people in jail for ten years the third time they stole a pizza, there is little difference from stealing pizza or robbing a bank so any rational actor will go for the bank ceteris paribus. Make it a one week or one month jail time (and make them do the time) and this become dissuasive for the criminal and will not persuade him to move up the ladder of crime. If the cost of the penalty is too low, it stop to be dissuasive and become persuasive to continue to do so. We all agree that fining JP-Morgan for 10% of the profits they made breaking every laws known to man is not dissuasive, just persuasive. More so if they can put the fine in the balance and claim a tax reduction from it. Mirco From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Nov 10 20:53:13 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 14:53:13 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: <54611F9E.2070906@libero.it> References: <5460C5BD.70204@libero.it> <54611F9E.2070906@libero.it> Message-ID: There is a difference from jailing people for short time for minor offenses and jailing them for long time What I would like to see is different prisons for different offenses. Around here (central Mississippi) gangs run the prisons. Guards earn minimum wage and rely on kickbacks from prisoners for extra money. Cell phones, drugs, you name it. Letting a prisoner out of his cell to kill another prisoner is common. Put a young offender in this mix and he has no choice to be in a gang and develop a lifestyle of permanent criminal. More home confinement, I say. We have the technology to find him if he escapes, and most won't because the alternative is big prisons. Far, far cheaper. bill w On Mon, Nov 10, 2014 at 2:27 PM, Mirco Romanato wrote: > Il 10/11/2014 21:07, BillK ha scritto: > > > That's the 'broken windows' / 'zero tolerance' theory of how minor > > crimes should be dealt with. > > > What California has found is that jailing minor offenders for long > > periods is costing the state millions of dollars that they would > > rather not spend. So, as the population object to the increased taxes > > that would be required, an alternative had to be found. > > There is a difference from jailing people for short time for minor > offenses and jailing them for long time. > > The long time sentence is criminogen, because it make little difference > from a serious offense and a minor one. > If they put people in jail for ten years the third time they stole a > pizza, there is little difference from stealing pizza or robbing a bank > so any rational actor will go for the bank ceteris paribus. > > Make it a one week or one month jail time (and make them do the time) > and this become dissuasive for the criminal and will not persuade him to > move up the ladder of crime. > > If the cost of the penalty is too low, it stop to be dissuasive and > become persuasive to continue to do so. > > We all agree that fining JP-Morgan for 10% of the profits they made > breaking every laws known to man is not dissuasive, just persuasive. > More so if they can put the fine in the balance and claim a tax > reduction from it. > > Mirco > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Mon Nov 10 21:17:37 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 13:17:37 -0800 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility Message-ID: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> I heard on the radio today that the US government wants to regulate ISPs in such a way as to forbid YouTube or others from being allowed to deliver content faster for a fee. My intuition tells me that such regulation would be a bad thing: too much potential for abuse. Lack of regulation has potential for abuse by big corporations. We are used to that. I haven't studied it deeply. Your thoughts welcome please. Comments from abroad also welcome. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From clementlawyer at gmail.com Mon Nov 10 21:51:58 2014 From: clementlawyer at gmail.com (James Clement) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 15:51:58 -0600 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> Message-ID: spike wrote: > > > I heard on the radio today that the US government wants to regulate ISPs > in such a way as to forbid YouTube or others from being allowed to deliver > content faster for a fee. My intuition tells me that such regulation would > be a bad thing: too much potential for abuse. Lack of regulation has > potential for abuse by big corporations. We are used to that. > > > > I haven?t studied it deeply. Your thoughts welcome please. Comments from > abroad also welcome. > > > Check out http://www.theopeninter.net/ and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L11kLmWha6o#t=42 The idea is that big IPS (ATT, Comcast, etc.) would create "preferred" providers and would push those sites to you much faster than sites that didn't pay them for this privilege. This could be implemented in various ways, but the most likely would be that when you sign up for internet service, they'd be able to sell you a package that favored the big companies that paid them for that privilege. Sort of how TMobile now lets you stream Rhapsody music for free, but you have to pay for data from Pandora or other music services. What's the effect? Startups would be left in the slow lane, and more and more ordinary internet users would simply use only the services that their ISP recommended, rather than new sites, since their experience would be that most of those were "slow" to load, stream, etc. It could cripple the ability of new websites/services to get new customers, since they couldn't afford to buy a spot on the ISP's "preferred list." Hope this helps, James -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Nov 11 00:52:46 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 16:52:46 -0800 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> Message-ID: <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> >? James Clement Subject: Re: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility spike wrote: >>?I heard on the radio today that the US government wants to regulate ISPs ? Check out http://www.theopeninter.net/ and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L11kLmWha6o#t=42 >?The idea is that big IPS (ATT, Comcast, etc.) would create "preferred" providers and would push those sites to you much faster than sites that didn't pay them for this privilege? It could cripple the ability of new websites/services to get new customers, since they couldn't afford to buy a spot on the ISP's "preferred list." >?Hope this helps, James It does, thanks James. I read up on it and I come away with little doubt: any attempt at regulation is a bad thing. It sets up too many risks for violation of free speech enforced by the IRS. I don?t trust the party currently in power nor the one that is coming in January. Free speech has its price. It?s worth it. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From clementlawyer at gmail.com Tue Nov 11 01:26:31 2014 From: clementlawyer at gmail.com (James Clement) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 19:26:31 -0600 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Nov 10, 2014 at 6:52 PM, spike wrote: > > > It does, thanks James. I read up on it and I come away with little doubt: > any attempt at regulation is a bad thing. It sets up too many risks for > violation of free speech enforced by the IRS. I don?t trust the party > currently in power nor the one that is coming in January. > > > So, does that mean you're *against* net neutrality, since such would be a regulation imposed on ISPs by the FCC? BTW, here's another good explanation: http://theoatmeal.com/blog/net_neutrality > Free speech has its price. It?s worth it. > Whose free speech, corporations? I'm one of those anarchist/libertarians who thinks personhood for corporations should be abolished, so they can no longer claim protection under the Constitution. > spike > Cheers, James -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Tue Nov 11 01:32:09 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 17:32:09 -0800 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> Message-ID: On Nov 10, 2014 5:07 PM, "spike" wrote: > I read up on it and I come away with little doubt: any attempt at regulation is a bad thing. It sets up too many risks for violation of free speech enforced by the IRS. ...at least target the right agency, please! The IRS wouldn't be regulating this, but the FCC, and they are directly about regulating the things that speech happens via. Also, in this case it's not a question if if there will be regulations but just of who will create and enforce them. If the FCC does not, then the Internet service companies will reserve most to all of their bandwidth for the large media companies who pay them the most. Or did you want this email list to become undeliverable because you didn't pay their $1,000 annual fee - and then $2,000 the next year, up to however much they can squeeze you for, and then a little more as you become that lowest paying customer who is no longer profitable and therefore dropped? Because that is basically the alternative that was being set up before the FCC said, "Hold on, we might have a problem with that." -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Nov 11 02:08:37 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 18:08:37 -0800 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> Message-ID: <017801cffd54$6852c9d0$38f85d70$@att.net> From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of James Clement Sent: Monday, November 10, 2014 5:27 PM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility On Mon, Nov 10, 2014 at 6:52 PM, spike wrote: >>?It does, thanks James. I read up on it and I come away with little doubt: any attempt at regulation is a bad thing. It sets up too many risks for violation of free speech enforced by the IRS. I don?t trust the party currently in power nor the one that is coming in January. >?So, does that mean you're against net neutrality, since such would be a regulation imposed on ISPs by the FCC? BTW, here's another good explanation: http://theoatmeal.com/blog/net_neutrality Ja. It leaves a government agency of some sort responsible for determining what is political content and what is not. Then it requires some kind of government action to balance that playing field. We saw the problem with that notion in the IRS scandal: an agency made up of people who all have their own political agendas get to decide what activity is promoting the public welfare. For instance, is educating Americans on the Bill of Rights welfare? I would say it is. The IRS arbitrarily decided that activity is promoting a political notion. After the fact, the same agency has functionally admitted it destroyed evidence by arranging for critical disks containing critical evidence to crash. Just last week they said they didn?t bother searching for copies of the email elsewhere, because they already knew that search would be fruitless. Think about that. Anything that empowers the FCC is subject to all the same problems, possibly worse. I could go along with the whole scheme under exactly one condition: that the person who gets to make the final decision on what constitutes a political message is me. I alone get that unlimited power, no one gets to appeal or to criticize me, for if they do, it?s Audit City and been-nice-to-know-you. But in reality, even I do not want that power, for I already know it would corrupt me. This is ME talking, the very most fair-minded and humble person in the history of mankind! That kind of power would corrupt even spotless little ME. So now imagine that power in the hands of those corrupt egomaniacs currently in Washington. No thanks, let big businesses compete and buy that bandwidth. At least we know their end goals. Free speech has its price. It?s worth it. >?Whose free speech, corporations? Yes sir. Or you, if you want to pay to deliver it. Or anyone, if they will tolerate a slower delivery rate. I agree this approach has its problems, but the alternative is worse. >?I'm one of those anarchist/libertarians who thinks personhood for corporations should be abolished, so they can no longer claim protection under the Constitution. James Ja. I don?t know how to handle it if a corporation is one person. I can?t imagine why hiring help would disqualify a person from his usual rights. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Nov 11 02:14:47 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 18:14:47 -0800 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> Message-ID: <017d01cffd55$4520aad0$cf620070$@att.net> From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes Sent: Monday, November 10, 2014 5:32 PM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility On Nov 10, 2014 5:07 PM, "spike" wrote: >> I read up on it and I come away with little doubt: any attempt at regulation is a bad thing. It sets up too many risks for violation of free speech enforced by the IRS. >...at least target the right agency, please! The IRS wouldn't be regulating this, but the FCC, and they are directly about regulating the things that speech happens via? The IRS is the universal enforcement arm. The development of using the IRS in that way is a most unpleasant recent development. Sure I know it started with Al Capone. But it wasn?t widely abused until recently. >?Also, in this case it's not a question if if there will be regulations but just of who will create and enforce them. If the FCC does not, then the Internet service companies will reserve most to all of their bandwidth for the large media companies who pay them the most? Ja, of course. >?Or did you want this email list to become undeliverable because you didn't pay their $1,000 annual fee - and then $2,000 the next year, up to however much they can squeeze you for, and then a little more as you become that lowest paying customer who is no longer profitable and therefore dropped? Because that is basically the alternative that was being set up before the FCC said, "Hold on, we might have a problem with that." Ja, and consider the alternative: the FCC gets to make the rules, and they start seeing a bit too much criticism of the government on this email server, but more specifically, a bit too much criticism of the FCC. We are talking about giving them the power to stop it? Could they do it by going to the moderator and saying ?We can let you continue without an IRS audit, if you get rid of these five troublemakers.? Give me corporations. We understand greed. We have always had that, and we can work with it. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From clementlawyer at gmail.com Tue Nov 11 03:09:43 2014 From: clementlawyer at gmail.com (James Clement) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 21:09:43 -0600 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: <017d01cffd55$4520aad0$cf620070$@att.net> References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> <017d01cffd55$4520aad0$cf620070$@att.net> Message-ID: 7spike wrote: > > Give me corporations. We understand greed. We have always had that, and > we can work with it. > Spike, by no means is this suggestion meant as a persuasive argument against your view that corporations should prevail over FCC's proposed Net Neutrality rules, but I nevertheless will recommend you watch all of the back episodes of the Canadian sci-fi program Continuum. http://www.showcase.ca/CONTINUUM I think there's a good chance that we're headed toward such a (2070s) world as envisioned by their writers, unless we start curbing the power of corporations to influence politicians. Getting voters to get worked up and vote corrupt politicians out of office - fat chance. Getting politicians to responsibly curb their own power or limit campaign donations, likewise. Of course I'd rather see overall government power significantly reduced, but that doesn't appear likely, either. Given that we have a system in which entrenched businesses are given favorable laws, loans, and get-out-of-jail cards, I don't want those corporations allowed to control the internet, too. And yes, we understand corporate greed, but I disagree that "we can work with it," in all cases. This doesn't make me an anti-capitalist (I'm most certainly not), it makes me anti crony capitalism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crony_capitalism. As long as corporations get to lobby Congress and buy elections, then we'll just get more and more crony capitalism. Best regards, James -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Tue Nov 11 03:19:30 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 19:19:30 -0800 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: <017d01cffd55$4520aad0$cf620070$@att.net> References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> <017d01cffd55$4520aad0$cf620070$@att.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Nov 10, 2014 at 6:14 PM, spike wrote: > > > > > > *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On > Behalf Of *Adrian Tymes > *Sent:* Monday, November 10, 2014 5:32 PM > *To:* ExI chat list > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility > > > > On Nov 10, 2014 5:07 PM, "spike" wrote: > >> I read up on it and I come away with little doubt: any attempt at > regulation is a bad thing. It sets up too many risks for violation of free > speech enforced by the IRS. > > >...at least target the right agency, please! The IRS wouldn't be > regulating this, but the FCC, and they are directly about regulating the > things that speech happens via? > > The IRS is the universal enforcement arm. > That is factually incorrect. If nothing else, there are other enforcement arms - starting with the military. I understand your paranoia, but get your facts straight. Otherwise, you have as much credibility on this issue as a flat Earther or a creationist. Ja, and consider the alternative: the FCC gets to make the rules, and they start seeing a bit too much criticism of the government on this email server, but more specifically, a bit too much criticism of the FCC. We are talking about giving them the power to stop it? Could they do it by going to the moderator and saying ?We can let you continue without an IRS audit, if you get rid of these five troublemakers.? No, they could not. Especially since not all Internet operations are US-based, or anywhere the IRS can get to. Corporations could, and would. And they don't lean toward letting just anyone speak - their default is to give slow, preferably no, service to anyone not paying them. The FCC at least defaults toward "voice for everybody". -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Nov 11 03:55:13 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 19:55:13 -0800 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> <017d01cffd55$4520aad0$cf620070$@att.net> Message-ID: <022d01cffd63$4c82bda0$e58838e0$@att.net> >? Behalf Of Adrian Tymes Subject: Re: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility On Nov 10, 2014 5:07 PM, "spike" wrote: >>>> I read up on it and I come away with little doubt: any attempt at regulation is a bad thing. It sets up too many risks for violation of free speech enforced by the IRS. >>>...at least target the right agency, please! The IRS wouldn't be regulating this, but the FCC ? >>?The IRS is the universal enforcement arm. >?That is factually incorrect. If nothing else, there are other enforcement arms - starting with the military? Was there a single military officer who has recently pled the fifth and refused to answer questions about the content of the missing evidence? >?I understand your paranoia, but get your facts straight. Otherwise, you have as much credibility on this issue as a flat Earther or a creationist? Consider this explanation. The IRS ?lost? email, then gave us the very flimsiest of insulting excuses. Now they are saying they didn?t bother looking for backups of their data because they already knew nothing would be found there. Indeed? How did they know that? And how can they be so sure their accidental destruction of evidence didn?t accidentally miss something? And why would they go to such extraordinary measures to destroy that evidence? And why the stupid half-hearted excuses, in a country which has more IT experts per square mile than Australia has kanagroos? Theory: those emails included the identities and actions of those who influenced the IRS to suppress an entire political party, which may have tipped an election. If so, the IRS would stop at nothing to hide that evidence trail, because it would cause congress to pass laws making it illegal, which it apparently is not currently. My point: the reason the IRS would be used as the government?s universal enforcement arm is that it has demonstrated that it has arbitrary power without accountability. If ever there was a good argument for libertarian principles, this is it. The irony should be lost on no one that the whole scheme came to light in the suppression of the party perhaps closest to libertarianism. The government used the IRS to crush libertarianism. >?No, they could not. Especially since not all Internet operations are US-based, or anywhere the IRS can get to? They can figure out who in the US is receiving the content they find objectionable, then tip off the IRS, and the recipient gets audited beyond recognition and is never heard of again. >?Corporations could, and would. And they don't lean toward letting just anyone speak - their default is to give slow, preferably no, service to anyone not paying them. The FCC at least defaults toward "voice for everybody"? The FCC is so nice and so fair, they would never go corrupt, the way the IRS already has, with the EPA is close on their heels. (Not. We know what happens when any agency has power without accountability.) Adrian, I?m just not buying it. It will take a generation to restore trust in government destroyed in the past 12 years alone. I don?t see why we couldn?t set up a system that guarantees a minimum free bandwidth allocation, a voice for everybody, available free everywhere, which would be more than adequate for text applications (which require almost nothing.) Then let the corporations fight with their money (it?s their money, not ours) over who gets to deliver high-bandwidth streaming of the latest funny cat YouTubes, porn and epic fail videos. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Tue Nov 11 05:59:29 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2014 21:59:29 -0800 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: <022d01cffd63$4c82bda0$e58838e0$@att.net> References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> <017d01cffd55$4520aad0$cf620070$@att.net> <022d01cffd63$4c82bda0$e58838e0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Nov 10, 2014 at 7:55 PM, spike wrote: > > > *>?** Behalf Of *Adrian Tymes > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility > > On Nov 10, 2014 5:07 PM, "spike" wrote: > >>>> I read up on it and I come away with little doubt: any attempt at > regulation is a bad thing. It sets up too many risks for violation of free > speech enforced by the IRS. > > >>>...at least target the right agency, please! The IRS wouldn't be > regulating this, but the FCC ? > > >>?The IRS is the universal enforcement arm. > > >?That is factually incorrect. If nothing else, there are other > enforcement arms - starting with the military? > > Was there a single military officer who has recently pled the fifth and > refused to answer questions about the content of the missing evidence? > Irrelevant to the claim that the IRS is the universal enforcement arm. Also, most military officers are under the military justice system, which follows different rules. > Consider this explanation. > Considered - and confirmed irrelevant to the question of the IRS being the primary, let alone universal, enforcement arm of the US government. You are only arguing that the IRS has had one scandal; you are completely ignoring all the other scandals and factors throughout the government. > >?No, they could not. Especially since not all Internet operations are > US-based, or anywhere the IRS can get to? > > They can figure out who in the US is receiving the content they find > objectionable, then tip off the IRS, and the recipient gets audited beyond > recognition and is never heard of again. > What if the content merely passes through the US, but is consumed by and served by no one in the US? This is not uncommon. Also this sets up policy that the large corporations will enforce worldwide, even on stuff not directly under the US's legal jurisdiction, if only because large corporations like homogenous operations. The IRS can't touch this...but the FCC can influence it indirectly in this manner. > I don?t see why we couldn?t set up a system that guarantees a minimum free > bandwidth allocation, a voice for everybody, available free everywhere, > which would be more than adequate for text applications (which require > almost nothing.) > We can...unless the corporations are given unlimited right to say who can and can not use their networks. Which is the only option on the table other than "FCC regulates". No middle ground is possible: either the FCC regulates and makes sure people get access, or it doesn't. > Then let the corporations fight with their money (it?s their money, not > ours) over who gets to deliver high-bandwidth streaming of the latest funny > cat YouTubes, porn and epic fail videos. > You are incorrect if you think this is truly just about the videos. Yes, those are the highest bandwidth users and thus the first to be targeted - but once legal precedent is established, it's open season on the rest of us, pure-text users included. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Tue Nov 11 09:26:42 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Tue, 11 Nov 2014 10:26:42 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Proposition 47 has passed in California In-Reply-To: References: <5460C5BD.70204@libero.it> <54611F9E.2070906@libero.it> Message-ID: <5461D652.8010107@libero.it> Il 10/11/2014 21:53, William Flynn Wallace ha scritto: > There is a difference from jailing people for short time for minor > offenses and jailing them for long time > What I would like to see is different prisons for different offenses. > Around here (central Mississippi) gangs run the prisons. This is known and happen everywhere. There was a few articles about the Mexican Mafia Gang in South California controlling the jails and, by extension, controlling mexican gangs outside the jail. Mexican Mafia is/was formed by long term inmates. Mexican gangs outside pay protection to them because their members know they have an high probability to end in jail and need their protection and goodwill. And they are protected by high walls and a lot of armed guards. The best way to destroy the power of these gangs is to move components continuously between jails, so they can not form an effective gang and develop trust of each other. You reduce their opportunity to develop a long term Prisoner Dilemma Strategy because they will not interact for a long time. Another way to reduce their power is to end the War on Drugs. No drugs money, no power. And liberalize personal weapons for the population. I have this thinking about the Sicilian Mafia: if the people was armed, it would be difficult to extort protection money from them. Why? Because, first or after, some hundred of armed and angry people would show up under the house of the Boss to solve the question . And the police would not. Mirco From dan_ust at yahoo.com Tue Nov 11 14:49:36 2014 From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan Ust) Date: Tue, 11 Nov 2014 06:49:36 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Brain-body mismatch generates spooky feelings Message-ID: http://www.nature.com/news/spooks-generated-by-brain-body-mismatch-1.16294 Regards, Dan -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ryacko at gmail.com Tue Nov 11 08:48:42 2014 From: ryacko at gmail.com (Ryan Carboni) Date: Tue, 11 Nov 2014 00:48:42 -0800 Subject: [ExI] ALERTS TO THREATS IN EUROPE from John Cleese Message-ID: ALERTS TO THREATS IN EUROPE from John Cleese >>>> ALERTS TO THREATS IN EUROPE >From JOHN CLEESE The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent events in Syria and have therefore raised their security level from "Miffed" to "Peeved." Soon, though, security levels may be raised yet again to "Irritated" or even "A Bit Cross." The English have not been "A Bit Cross" since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out. Terrorists have been re-categorized from "Tiresome" to "A Bloody Nuisance." The last time the British issued a "Bloody Nuisance" warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada. The Scots have raised their threat level from "Pissed Off" to "Let's get the Bastards." They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years. The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its terror alert level from "Run" to "Hide." The only two higher levels in France are "Collaborate" and "Surrender." The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France 's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability. Italy has increased the alert level from "Shout Loudly and Excitedly" to "Elaborate Military Posturing." Two more levels remain: "Ineffective Combat Operations" and "Change Sides." The Germans have increased their alert state from "Disdainful Arrogance" to "Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs." They also have two higher levels: "Invade a Neighbour" and "Lose." Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels. The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy. Australia, meanwhile, has raised its security level from "No worries" to "She'll be right, Mate." Two more escalation levels remain: "Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!" and "The barbie is cancelled." So far no situation has ever warranted use of the last final escalation level. Regards, John Cleese British writer, actor and tall person And as a final thought - Greece is collapsing, the Iranians are getting aggressive, and Rome is in disarray. Welcome back to 430 BC. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Tue Nov 11 17:45:26 2014 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Tue, 11 Nov 2014 12:45:26 -0500 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> <017d01cffd55$4520aad0$cf620070$@att.net> <022d01cffd63$4c82bda0$e58838e0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Nov 11, 2014 at 12:59 AM, Adrian Tymes wrote: > You are incorrect if you think this is truly just about the videos. Yes, > those are the highest bandwidth users and thus the first to be targeted - > but once legal precedent is established, it's open season on the rest of us, > pure-text users included. So when pay to play becomes a battleground for advertising, will the rest of us agree to move onto dark mesh? Or will off-net communications be criminalized? Can I send/receive peer to peer messages on behalf of other sender/receivers? Using Tor already makes one a suspect, wouldn't using a decentralized communications system be as bad (or worse)? If I employ an enigma-like cypher printed on small strips of paper attached to carrier pigeons will I be arrested for threatening national security? Will it depend on where the avian carrier originates or where it eventually roosts? From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Nov 11 19:38:03 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 11 Nov 2014 13:38:03 -0600 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> Message-ID: Whose free speech, corporations? I'm one of those anarchist/libertarians who thinks personhood for corporations should be abolished, so they can no longer claim protection under the Constitution. I am not an anarchist but fully agree with the above. And if that's what you want, you need Democrats to fill courts incl. the Supreme Court, and if you want that you'll have to vote for Democrats. Chances of taking away anything from corporations under Repubs is zero. (can a probability be less than zero? If any can, this one can.) bill w On Mon, Nov 10, 2014 at 7:32 PM, Adrian Tymes wrote: > On Nov 10, 2014 5:07 PM, "spike" wrote: > > I read up on it and I come away with little doubt: any attempt at > regulation is a bad thing. It sets up too many risks for violation of free > speech enforced by the IRS. > > ...at least target the right agency, please! The IRS wouldn't be > regulating this, but the FCC, and they are directly about regulating the > things that speech happens via. > > Also, in this case it's not a question if if there will be regulations but > just of who will create and enforce them. If the FCC does not, then the > Internet service companies will reserve most to all of their bandwidth for > the large media companies who pay them the most. > > Or did you want this email list to become undeliverable because you didn't > pay their $1,000 annual fee - and then $2,000 the next year, up to however > much they can squeeze you for, and then a little more as you become that > lowest paying customer who is no longer profitable and therefore dropped? > Because that is basically the alternative that was being set up before the > FCC said, "Hold on, we might have a problem with that." > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Wed Nov 12 16:06:41 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Wed, 12 Nov 2014 08:06:41 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: iHuman: The Future of Minds and Machines - December 4th Half-Day Conference In-Reply-To: <74c49fe0367b3f3e4ca000e63a928f12484.20141110232810@mail92.atl91.mcsv.net> References: <74c49fe0367b3f3e4ca000e63a928f12484.20141110232810@mail92.atl91.mcsv.net> Message-ID: I suspect some here may wish to apply to speak at this event. ---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: "SVForum" Date: Nov 10, 2014 3:29 PM Subject: iHuman: The Future of Minds and Machines - December 4th Half-Day Conference To: Cc: Is this email not displaying correctly? View it in your browser . Thursday December 4th, 2014 2:00 ? 6:30 pm Location announced soon! PRESENTED BY SVForum [image: Register!] Smart phones were just the beginning... *There's no doubt that AI technology will affect our lives. 2025 is only eleven years away, and futurists and entrepreneurs are all wondering: what will our world look like when the majority of our computers have learned how to "think"? * At SVForum's December 4th half-day conference "*iHuman: The Future of Minds and Machines* " we will set the stage to discuss how the creation of Artificial Intelligence today will impact the world of tomorrow. You will hear from experts about this rapidly-growing industry, and learn what life will be like in an augmented world. *Our featured keynote speaker will be Steve Jurvetson of Draper Fisher Jurvetson*; each of our panels and Q&A session will feature some of the brightest minds and best innovators working in AI and Robotics today. *#iHumanSVF* *Be a Part of The Day! If You're Interested In:* *Speaking: *Please email your bio and links to events at which you have appeared to Sepideh Nasiri (sepideh at svforum.org) *Sponsorship Opportunities:* Email Sepideh Nasiri (sepideh at svforum.org) *Volunteering*: Click here or email events at svforum.org *Purchasing a Demo and/or Exhibitor Table*: Please visit the event page to purchase table space for your startup. You will also have the opportunity to deliver a speed pitch to conference attendees. *PROGRAM* 2 - 3pm Registration and networking 3:00pm Opening Remarks 3:15pm *Keynote Speech: Steve Jurvetson, Partner, DFJ* *How will the creation of Artificial Intelligence today impact the world of tomorrow?* 4:00pm *Panel Discussion* *Smarter Than Us: The Rise of Intelligent Machines* 4:45pm *Coffee and Networking Break* 5:00pm *Tech Talk: * *The Next Generation of Robots: Working With and For People* 5:30pm *Panel Discussion* *Investing for the Future * 6:15pm *Speed pitches from Participating Startups * 6:30pm Closing Remarks and Cocktail Hour KEYNOTE SPEAKER *Steve Jurvetson, Partner, DFJ* Steve Jurvetson is a Partner at *DFJ *. His current board responsibilities include SpaceX, Synthetic Genomics, and Tesla Motors (TSLA). He was the founding VC investor in Hotmail, Interwoven (IWOV), Kana (KANA), and NeoPhotonics (NPTN). He also led DFJ's investments in other companies that were acquired for $12 billion in aggregate. Previously, Steve was an R&D Engineer at Hewlett-Packard, where seven of his communications chip designs were fabricated. His prior technical experience also includes programming, materials science research, and computer design at HP's PC Division, the Center for Materials Research, and Mostek. He has also worked in product marketing at Apple and NeXT Software. As a Consultant with Bain & Company, Steve developed executive marketing, sales, engineering and business strategies for a wide range of companies in the software, networking and semiconductor industries. At Stanford University, he finished his BSEE in 2.5 years and graduated #1 in his class, as the Henry Ford Scholar. Steve also holds an MS in Electrical Engineering from Stanford. He received his MBA from the Stanford Business School, where he was an Arjay Miller Scholar. He also serves on the Advisory Boards of SRI International, WAVC, STVP, and SEVF. He was honored as "The Valley's Sharpest VC" on the cover of Business 2.0 and chosen by the SF Chronicle and SF Examiner as one of "the ten people expected to have the greatest impact on the Bay Area in the early part of the 21st Century." Steve was chosen by Forbes as one of "Tech's Best Venture Investors", by the VC Journal as one of the "Ten Most Influential VCs", and by Fortune as part of their "Brain Trust of Top Ten Minds." Steve was honored as a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum, as a Distinguished Alumnus by St. Mark's (where he was Commencement Speaker), and as Deloitte's "Venture Capitalist of the Year" for 2012. *More speakers will be announced soon!* PRESENTED BY This email was sent to atymes at gmail.com *why did I get this?* unsubscribe from this list update subscription preferences SVForum ? SVG Innovation Center ? 189 West Santa Clara St ? San Jose, CA 95113 ? USA -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Nov 12 23:37:53 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 12 Nov 2014 18:37:53 -0500 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Nov 10, 2014 at 8:26 PM, James Clement wrote: > On Mon, Nov 10, 2014 at 6:52 PM, spike wrote: > >> >> >> It does, thanks James. I read up on it and I come away with little >> doubt: any attempt at regulation is a bad thing. It sets up too many risks >> for violation of free speech enforced by the IRS. I don?t trust the party >> currently in power nor the one that is coming in January. >> >> >> > > So, does that mean you're *against* net neutrality, since such would be a > regulation imposed on ISPs by the FCC? BTW, here's another good > explanation: http://theoatmeal.com/blog/net_neutrality > > >> Free speech has its price. It?s worth it. >> > > Whose free speech, corporations? I'm one of those anarchist/libertarians > who thinks personhood for corporations should be abolished, so they can no > longer claim protection under the Constitution. > ### The notion that net neutrality is a way of protecting liberty is an example of psy-ops, a masterful sleight-of-hand that allowed our enemies to co-opt a lot of otherwise nice people. Obviously, once you allow an unaccountable but ultimately venal bureaucracy to even more minutely control an activity (whether it's making cheese or sending bits around), the goals of the bureaucracy will take precedence over the goals of other persons involved in the activity. It's a very general observation, largely independent of context and content. That's why farmers go to prison for making good cheese and if you are at the wrong place at the wrong time, an unpasteurized cheese connoisseur can get in trouble with the law, too. That's why once the FCC is done with its internet takeover, users will have no input to the workings of the internet. They will have to pay whatever the bureaucrats demand for whatever the bureaucrats give - consumers will be completely deprived of our current true source of power, the power of exit and the power of easily finding somebody else to take our money in exchange for giving us what we want. All control will belong to bureaucrats and those rich enough off to pay them off. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Nov 12 23:50:00 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 12 Nov 2014 18:50:00 -0500 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Nov 10, 2014 at 8:32 PM, Adrian Tymes wrote: > > Or did you want this email list to become undeliverable because you didn't > pay their $1,000 annual fee - and then $2,000 the next year, up to however > much they can squeeze you for, and then a little more as you become that > lowest paying customer who is no longer profitable and therefore dropped? > Because that is basically the alternative that was being set up before the > FCC said, "Hold on, we might have a problem with that." > ### In any modern psy-ops, the first order of business is manufacture a victim class, whose rights you claim to champion. Then you manufacture an enemy, a fearsome bugaboo, who illicitly seeks dominance. Hey, there are *poor people* who could end up without internet because greedy ISPs want more money! If you frame the story right, the usual suspects will show up in support - it does not matter that the story is inane bullshit, as in "Internet access prices will exponentially increase unless government steps in". Proper emotions triggered, wait for suckers to do the job for you. Why do people fall for this, over and over and over? Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Wed Nov 12 23:49:20 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Wed, 12 Nov 2014 15:49:20 -0800 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> Message-ID: <018a01cffed3$4979b020$dc6d1060$@att.net> >? On Behalf Of Rafal Smigrodzki Subject: Re: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility >?### The notion that net neutrality is a way of protecting liberty is an example of psy-ops? - consumers will be completely deprived of our current true source of power, the power of exit and the power of easily finding somebody else to take our money in exchange for giving us what we want. All control will belong to bureaucrats and those rich enough off to pay them off. Rafal Ja, I am with you Rafal. We have a federal government who is now saying they intentionally lied to us to get the Affordable Care Act to pass, but it is OK really, for it could never have passed otherwise (we voters are too stupid to know what we need.) Further attempts at clarification of those comments only made them worse. See there, lack of transparency is an enormous political advantage. If our own government lies to us about that, why should we assume they are not lying to us about this? This bunch cannot be trusted with the power they have; we need to take away some of that power rather than handing them even more. We definitely do not want them having any control over the flow of information; that would be a gateway drug into other forms of abuse of power, since they would be better able to control the flow of information exposing their corruption. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Thu Nov 13 00:02:29 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Thu, 13 Nov 2014 01:02:29 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Looks like we can land on comets now Message-ID: <2792088322-22324@secure.ericade.net> http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/nov/12/rosetta-mission-philae-historic-landing-comet Although, as XKCD pointed out, "harpoons are tricky". I am also reminded of this celebration:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H08tGjXNHO4 Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Thu Nov 13 01:42:30 2014 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Wed, 12 Nov 2014 20:42:30 -0500 Subject: [ExI] internet regulation as a public utility In-Reply-To: <018a01cffed3$4979b020$dc6d1060$@att.net> References: <016d01cffd2b$c18c4450$44a4ccf0$@att.net> <00db01cffd49$cfccd020$6f667060$@att.net> <018a01cffed3$4979b020$dc6d1060$@att.net> Message-ID: On Nov 12, 2014 7:03 PM, "spike" wrote: > We definitely do not want them having any control over the flow of information; that would be a gateway drug into other forms of abuse of power, since they would be better able to control the flow of information exposing their corruption. Legalize drugs: it'll be one of the ways any of what they are doing will make any sense. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Fri Nov 14 21:14:04 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 14 Nov 2014 13:14:04 -0800 Subject: [ExI] fw from damien: a new book ... Message-ID: <022901d0004f$ec27c4b0$c4774e10$@att.net> Forwarding for Damien: -----Original Message----- From: Damien Broderick [mailto:thespike at satx.rr.com] Subject: a new book on a John Clark-infuriating topic Hi Spike ... Hope you're all well and having fun! Barbara and I are chuntering along, doing okay ... Could you maybe pass this along to the extropes? Damien You might be interested, amused or dismayed to hear that I (with co-editor Ben Goertzel) have just published a hefty scholarly volume from McFarland, EVIDENCE FOR PSI: http://www.amazon.com/Evidence-Psi-Thirteen-Empirical-Research/dp/0786478284 It also has a hefty price ($50 for a large trade paperback) but maybe anyone interested might consider asking their nearest library to purchase a copy. Here's the Table of Contents: Preface Introduction: Damien Broderick and Ben Goertzel 1 The Significance of Statistics in Mind-Matter Research Jessica Utts 2 Physiological Activity That Seems to Anticipate Future Events Julia Mossbridge 3 Anomalous Anticipatory Skin Conductance Response to Acoustic Stimuli Edwin C. May, Tam?s Paulinyi and Zolt?n Vassy 4 Revisiting the Ganzfeld ESP Debate Bryan J. Williams 5 Telepathy in Connection with Telephone Calls, Text Messages and E-Mails Rupert Sheldrake 6 Empirical Examinations of the Reported Abilities of Psychic Claimant Sean Harribance Bryan J. Williams 7 Assessing Psi Ability Via the Ball Selection Test Suitbert Ertel 8 Through Time and Space: The Evidence for Remote Viewing Stephan Schwartz 9 The PEAR Laboratory: Explorations And Observations York Dobyns 10 The Global Consciousness Project Roger Nelson 11 An Analysis of the Global Consciousness Project Peter Bancel 12 Psi and the Environment: Local Sidereal Time and Geomagnetic Effects James Spottiswoode 13 Skeptical Responses to Psi Research Ted Goertzel and Ben Goertzel 14 The Future of Psi Research Damien Broderick and Ben Goertzel All best, Damien From protokol2020 at gmail.com Sun Nov 16 10:26:00 2014 From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan) Date: Sun, 16 Nov 2014 11:26:00 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Looks like we can land on comets now In-Reply-To: <2792088322-22324@secure.ericade.net> References: <2792088322-22324@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: But please, do not forget the NEAR asteroid landing from 2001 in this context! On Thu, Nov 13, 2014 at 1:02 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > > http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/nov/12/rosetta-mission-philae-historic-landing-comet > > Although, as XKCD pointed out, "harpoons are tricky". > > I am also reminded of this celebration: > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H08tGjXNHO4 > > > Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford > University > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -- https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Mon Nov 17 14:59:16 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 14:59:16 +0000 Subject: [ExI] META: Software - MS Visual Studio now available free Message-ID: Microsoft has released a free version of Visual Studio. This is a good buy as it used to be expensive. Quote: Microsoft today launched the Community 2013 edition of Visual Studio, which essentially replaces the very limited Visual Studio Express version the company has been offering for a few years now. There is a huge difference between Visual Studio Express and the aptly named Visual Studio 2013 Community edition, though: The new version is extensible, so get access to the over 5,100 extensions now in the Visual Studio ecosystem. It's basically a full version of Visual Studio with no restrictions, except that you can't use it in an enterprise setting and for teams with more than five people (you can, however, use it for any other kind of commercial and non-commercial project). -------------- Download here: Note that this is a 9GB download, so you need a fast connection and plenty of disk space. As it supports Visual Basic and many other languages, it might be useful for youngsters learning to program. (Spike?) You can also download a tuition pack. Microsoft Visual Studio Learning Pack 2.0 BillK From kellycoinguy at gmail.com Mon Nov 17 19:32:21 2014 From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson) Date: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 12:32:21 -0700 Subject: [ExI] META: Software - MS Visual Studio now available free In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Thanks! That's a great thing I didn't know about! Much appreciated. -Kelly On Mon, Nov 17, 2014 at 7:59 AM, BillK wrote: > Microsoft has released a free version of Visual Studio. This is a good > buy as it used to be expensive. > < > http://techcrunch.com/2014/11/12/microsoft-makes-visual-studio-free-for-small-teams/ > > > Quote: > > Microsoft today launched the Community 2013 edition of Visual Studio, > which essentially replaces the very limited Visual Studio Express > version the company has been offering for a few years now. > > There is a huge difference between Visual Studio Express and the aptly > named Visual Studio 2013 Community edition, though: The new version is > extensible, so get access to the over 5,100 extensions now in the > Visual Studio ecosystem. It's basically a full version of Visual > Studio with no restrictions, except that you can't use it in an > enterprise setting and for teams with more than five people (you can, > however, use it for any other kind of commercial and non-commercial > project). > -------------- > > > Download here: > > Note that this is a 9GB download, so you need a fast connection and > plenty of disk space. > > As it supports Visual Basic and many other languages, it might be > useful for youngsters learning to program. (Spike?) > > You can also download a tuition pack. > Microsoft Visual Studio Learning Pack 2.0 > < > http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/download/details.aspx?id=22347&751be11f-ede8-5a0c-058c-2ee190a24fa6=True > > > > > BillK > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Tue Nov 18 13:55:38 2014 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Tue, 18 Nov 2014 14:55:38 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The BullShirtStorm Message-ID: The BullShirtStorm I can?t believe that. One of the most spectacular achievements of the century in space, and all the dummy jerks can do is whining about Matt Taylor?s shirt... http://skefia.com/2014/11/18/the-bullshirtstorm/ From pharos at gmail.com Tue Nov 18 14:40:37 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 18 Nov 2014 14:40:37 +0000 Subject: [ExI] The BullShirtStorm In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Nov 18, 2014 at 1:55 PM, Giulio Prisco wrote: > I can't believe that. One of the most spectacular achievements of the > century in space, and all the dummy jerks can do is whining about Matt > Taylor's shirt... > http://skefia.com/2014/11/18/the-bullshirtstorm/ > > That's nothing. See- 'Money spent on Rosetta could have bailed one of us out', moan banks Despite costing a meagre ?1.1bn and possibly changing the course of human civilisation as we know it, the banking community has been quick to dismiss the Rosetta Space Mission as a 'frivolous boondoggle'. Another so-called giant leap for mankind, they argue, could easily have been reinvested in subprime mortgages, money laundering or paying for 'the world's greatest lap-dance'. etc........ ------------------ That's the answer to the Fermi paradox. After civs reach a certain level all the money gets stolen and there's little left for space research. BillK (This is a satirical article). :) From giulio at gmail.com Tue Nov 18 14:45:26 2014 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Tue, 18 Nov 2014 15:45:26 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The BullShirtStorm In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Combined: That's the answer to the Fermi paradox. After civs reach a certain level all the money is stolen by thieves and all the spirit is stolen by PC dummies, and there's little of either left for space research. On Tue, Nov 18, 2014 at 3:40 PM, BillK wrote: > On Tue, Nov 18, 2014 at 1:55 PM, Giulio Prisco wrote: >> I can't believe that. One of the most spectacular achievements of the >> century in space, and all the dummy jerks can do is whining about Matt >> Taylor's shirt... >> http://skefia.com/2014/11/18/the-bullshirtstorm/ >> >> > > That's nothing. See- > > > > 'Money spent on Rosetta could have bailed one of us out', moan banks > Despite costing a meagre ?1.1bn and possibly changing the course of > human civilisation as we know it, the banking community has been quick > to dismiss the Rosetta Space Mission as a 'frivolous boondoggle'. > Another so-called giant leap for mankind, they argue, could easily > have been reinvested in subprime mortgages, money laundering or paying > for 'the world's greatest lap-dance'. > etc........ > ------------------ > > That's the answer to the Fermi paradox. After civs reach a certain > level all the money gets stolen and there's little left for space > research. > > BillK > (This is a satirical article). :) > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From spike66 at att.net Tue Nov 18 18:00:38 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 18 Nov 2014 10:00:38 -0800 Subject: [ExI] The BullShirtStorm In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <010e01d00359$909941c0$b1cbc540$@att.net> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Giulio Prisco Sent: Tuesday, November 18, 2014 5:56 AM To: ExI chat list; cosmic-engineers at googlegroups.com; turingchurch at googlegroups.com Subject: [ExI] The BullShirtStorm The BullShirtStorm I can?t believe that. One of the most spectacular achievements of the century in space, and all the dummy jerks can do is whining about Matt Taylor?s shirt... http://skefia.com/2014/11/18/the-bullshirtstorm/ _______________________________________________ Regarding the shirt, I have a notion how Matt Taylor could defend himself. To the argument that his shirt demeans women, he could argue that the figures depicted there are not necessarily women. They could be transgender. To claim otherwise is presumptuous and demeans transgendered people. To the argument that the (presumed) women were scantily clad, he could argue that they were not necessarily scantily clad. They would be defined as scantily clad if one is a fundamentalist Christian or a ISIS extremist, again presuming the figures are women, so which group are the whiners? Fundie Christians or ISIS? There is a class of people who feel the greatest expression of self is to bare all. From that perspective, any cloth draped upon the body in any form is more clad than that which they declare freedom of expression. One cannot become scantily clad by putting on clothing in any form. Calling the (presumed) female figures scantily clad is disrespectful of nudists and promotes puritan notions of (presumed) female modesty. Oh this whole notion of landing on a comet is sooooo cool. It's a tragedy about landing in the shade, but we did get some data. spike From giulio at gmail.com Tue Nov 18 18:22:04 2014 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Tue, 18 Nov 2014 19:22:04 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The BullShirtStorm In-Reply-To: <010e01d00359$909941c0$b1cbc540$@att.net> References: <010e01d00359$909941c0$b1cbc540$@att.net> Message-ID: Spike, you can't argue with the mob. They are right by definition, because might makes right. That is OUR fault, because we let the mob take power one little concession at the time. We could and should, of course, fight back, if we had balls to fight (perhaps not anymore). On Tue, Nov 18, 2014 at 7:00 PM, spike wrote: > > > -----Original Message----- > From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Giulio Prisco > Sent: Tuesday, November 18, 2014 5:56 AM > To: ExI chat list; cosmic-engineers at googlegroups.com; turingchurch at googlegroups.com > Subject: [ExI] The BullShirtStorm > > The BullShirtStorm > I can?t believe that. One of the most spectacular achievements of the century in space, and all the dummy jerks can do is whining about Matt Taylor?s shirt... > http://skefia.com/2014/11/18/the-bullshirtstorm/ > > _______________________________________________ > > > Regarding the shirt, I have a notion how Matt Taylor could defend himself. To the argument that his shirt demeans women, he could argue that the figures depicted there are not necessarily women. They could be transgender. To claim otherwise is presumptuous and demeans transgendered people. To the argument that the (presumed) women were scantily clad, he could argue that they were not necessarily scantily clad. They would be defined as scantily clad if one is a fundamentalist Christian or a ISIS extremist, again presuming the figures are women, so which group are the whiners? Fundie Christians or ISIS? There is a class of people who feel the greatest expression of self is to bare all. From that perspective, any cloth draped upon the body in any form is more clad than that which they declare freedom of expression. One cannot become scantily clad by putting on clothing in any form. Calling the (presumed) female figures scantily clad is disrespectful of nudists and promotes puritan notions of (presumed) female modesty. > > Oh this whole notion of landing on a comet is sooooo cool. It's a tragedy about landing in the shade, but we did get some data. > > spike > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From spike66 at att.net Fri Nov 21 01:19:51 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Thu, 20 Nov 2014 17:19:51 -0800 Subject: [ExI] repeated digits in ss numbers Message-ID: <001901d00529$40ec2440$c2c46cc0$@att.net> A long time ago, a computer science professor was teaching us about random number generators. He asked us to write down ten random numbers, ten digits each. Then we did randomness tests on them. One of the findings I vaguely recalled from a long time ago is that when you write down ten random digits (such as a social security number) the probability of a human-chosen random number has anomalously few repeated digits. Does that sound right, randomness hipsters? The human-chosen ten-digit numbers are more likely to have nearly all ten single digit numbers. Reason I ask: the USA is likely going to grant pardon for all illegal immigrants who have used a random social security number (ten digits.) The victims of that blanket pardon are those whose SS numbers have been randomly chosen and used by an illegal. A cheerful thought occurred to me: those of us whose SS numbers contain a lot of repeats are less likely to have had our number stolen. Sound right? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Fri Nov 21 02:47:23 2014 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Thu, 20 Nov 2014 21:47:23 -0500 Subject: [ExI] repeated digits in ss numbers In-Reply-To: <001901d00529$40ec2440$c2c46cc0$@att.net> References: <001901d00529$40ec2440$c2c46cc0$@att.net> Message-ID: On Nov 20, 2014 8:36 PM, "spike" wrote: recalled from a long time ago is that when you write down ten random digits (such as a social security number) the probability of a human-chosen random number has anomalously few repeated digits. Does that sound right, randomness hipsters? The human-chosen ten-digit numbers are more likely to have nearly all ten single digit numbers. The selection bias you are talking about shouldn't be called random. From any number of tests your prof had you do to test numbers, you'd probably see how special those human-generated numbers are; even when appearing otherwise unremarkable. > Reason I ask: the USA is likely going to grant pardon for all illegal immigrants who have used a random social security number (ten digits.) The victims of that blanket pardon are those whose SS numbers have been randomly chosen and used by an illegal. A cheerful thought occurred to me: those of us whose SS numbers contain a lot of repeats are less likely to have had our number stolen. The number of collisions may warrant solving the problem by simply reassigning identification credentials. Think of all the other human cattle. .. er, capital tracking problems that would solve. Sure, we see the hundreds of other ways that tracking violates our rights, but we're just old and wary; kids these days have no expectation of any different. You want your guaranteed income payment? Well you have to be on the network to receive it. Identity management for credit cards is similarly obsolete; we're one of the last places in the world where a strip of magnetic tape on a slice of plastic can rob someone of their electronic currency. We need a better system, ideally one that doesn't introduce new problems for the cred-holder. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Fri Nov 21 14:40:52 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Fri, 21 Nov 2014 15:40:52 +0100 Subject: [ExI] repeated digits in ss numbers In-Reply-To: <001901d00529$40ec2440$c2c46cc0$@att.net> Message-ID: <3535475299-5452@secure.ericade.net> spike??, 21/11/2014 2:39 AM: ? Does that sound right, randomness hipsters?? The human-chosen ten-digit numbers are more likely to have nearly all ten single digit numbers. Yep:http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0041531 There are a billion possible SSNs but 450 million have been used. So if I randomly select one number I have about 45% chance of hitting a number officially in use; whether it is actively used by somebody I guess is about 50-50. The internal structure of the used ones seem to be random with the exception of a few small 'holes'. So I think it is true that if you have a pattern-looking SSN it is less likely to have been used.? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Nov 21 23:38:56 2014 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 21 Nov 2014 17:38:56 -0600 Subject: [ExI] repeated digits in ss numbers In-Reply-To: <3535475299-5452@secure.ericade.net> References: <001901d00529$40ec2440$c2c46cc0$@att.net> <3535475299-5452@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: An oddity: when subjects are shown series of random numbers they don't think that they are random. bill w On Fri, Nov 21, 2014 at 8:40 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > spike , 21/11/2014 2:39 AM: > > Does that sound right, randomness hipsters? The human-chosen ten-digit > numbers are more likely to have nearly all ten single digit numbers. > > > Yep: > http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0041531 > > There are a billion possible SSNs but 450 million have been used. So if I > randomly select one number I have about 45% chance of hitting a number > officially in use; whether it is actively used by somebody I guess is about > 50-50. The internal structure of the used ones seem to be random with the > exception of a few small 'holes'. So I think it is true that if you have a > pattern-looking SSN it is less likely to have been used. > > > Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford > University > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Mon Nov 24 05:22:55 2014 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Sun, 23 Nov 2014 21:22:55 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Jack Williamson story Message-ID: *Long* ago, this email list was one of the more interesting places on the net for new ideas. Nanotechnology, AI, uploading plus more philosophical arguments than anyone could want. But not long ago I accidentally found where a good number of the ideas we thought were new and important were presented in a SF story by Jack Williamson in the early 70s, about 15 years before they were reinvented on the Extropian list. If any of you want to look into it, it?s around page 144 in _The Power of Blackness_. Spoiler since I doubt anyone will actually try to find it. The story gets to a point where one of a pair has uploaded (transposition) and the other refuses it. The one who has uploaded has left a body behind which can and is revived and the pair goes on in the real world so the story can continue while a copy of one of them lives the sweet life in a simulation. I don?t think I read this story when it came out. That period of my life I was not reading much SF, too busy. And, at the time, SF that didn?t include space colonies just wasn?t interesting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Williamson From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Nov 24 17:00:42 2014 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan) Date: Mon, 24 Nov 2014 09:00:42 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Time in space exposes materials to the test of time Message-ID: http://phys.org/news/2014-11-space-exposes-materials.html Regards, Dan http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00F02DLNG -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Nov 25 08:31:59 2014 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 00:31:59 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Deep-Earth carbon offers clues on origin of life: New organic carbon species linked to formation of diamonds -- and life itself? Message-ID: <3493A02A-0295-4287-9806-F6DF4330F714@gmail.com> http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/11/141120183344.htm Regards, Dan -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Nov 25 13:43:29 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 05:43:29 -0800 Subject: [ExI] hacked email Message-ID: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> Security hipsters, I need some advice or ideas. We have a group of family history researchers, about a dozen of us who work together, share photos, family lore, findings from DNA and so forth. Recently one of our circle went off her meds and did a lot of damage by hacking into another member's email and writing messages to the other members with a false From line, all with carefully calculated malice. It has us really freaked, because this cousin is very unpredictable and has a lot of brains and a lot of ill will, with more internet protocol savvy than the rest of us combined (she is a computer security expert.) I am thinking of a way to write some kind of code word or something into our email such that it would be evidence the message is from who it says. Is there a standard way of doing this? We can exchange the code word via phone so if the party in question has access to our email, it wouldn't be intercepted. Ideally it would be some kind of rotating code, different with each message but derived by some kind of externally-accessible information, not easily guessed. An example would be the F10.7 cm radiation average from the sun on a given day. That could be looked up each day and put in the email message somewhere. Archives exist, so we could even go one year back. Ideally we would want a code that changes by the hour. Ideas please? What do you security guys do to verify a sender? I don't think my email has been compromised, so posting here or privately is OK. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From mlatorra at gmail.com Tue Nov 25 14:45:36 2014 From: mlatorra at gmail.com (Michael LaTorra) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 07:45:36 -0700 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> References: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> Message-ID: I am certainly no expert, but I'll toss this idea out anyway: use a physical one-time pad. The pad lists one code per page. The pages are numbered. Everyone in your secure circle gets a copy of the pad. Use a numbered code page once, then destroy the page. In your message, you give the page number. If the reply does not include the proper code, it's been compromised. Best, Mike LaTorra On Nov 25, 2014 7:00 AM, "spike" wrote: > Security hipsters, I need some advice or ideas. We have a group of family > history researchers, about a dozen of us who work together, share photos, > family lore, findings from DNA and so forth. Recently one of our circle > went off her meds and did a lot of damage by hacking into another member?s > email and writing messages to the other members with a false From line, all > with carefully calculated malice. It has us really freaked, because this > cousin is very unpredictable and has a lot of brains and a lot of ill will, > with more internet protocol savvy than the rest of us combined (she is a > computer security expert.) > > > > I am thinking of a way to write some kind of code word or something into > our email such that it would be evidence the message is from who it says. > Is there a standard way of doing this? We can exchange the code word via > phone so if the party in question has access to our email, it wouldn?t be > intercepted. Ideally it would be some kind of rotating code, different > with each message but derived by some kind of externally-accessible > information, not easily guessed. An example would be the F10.7 cm > radiation average from the sun on a given day. That could be looked up > each day and put in the email message somewhere. Archives exist, so we > could even go one year back. Ideally we would want a code that changes by > the hour. Ideas please? What do you security guys do to verify a sender? > > > > I don?t think my email has been compromised, so posting here or privately > is OK. > > > > spike > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From painlord2k at libero.it Tue Nov 25 14:47:20 2014 From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 15:47:20 +0100 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> References: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> Message-ID: <54749678.8000102@libero.it> Il 25/11/2014 14:43, spike ha scritto: > Security hipsters, I need some advice or ideas. We have a group of > family history researchers, about a dozen of us who work together, share > photos, family lore, findings from DNA and so forth. Recently one of > our circle went off her meds and did a lot of damage by hacking into > another member?s email and writing messages to the other members with a > false From line, all with carefully calculated malice. It has us really > freaked, because this cousin is very unpredictable and has a lot of > brains and a lot of ill will, with more internet protocol savvy than the > rest of us combined (she is a computer security expert.) My opinion is you can not outsmart some security expert. My suggestion is to use GPG or just sign the message with your bitcoin secret key. Another way, but it difficult to implement, is to have two Bitcoin known addresses and send coins from one to the other and include the hash of the text in the transaction. So you know it was not tampered with. Another way is to pay one know address (know to all family members to be owned by a particular family member) with a large sum and include the tx of the transaction in the mail message. If that family member own both the addresses, he is just sending money to himself. The evil relative could send money to this address and, for a while, trick the others, but it would cost him real money (say 1 BTC). The only way to break these system is to get the device witht he wallet (a smartphone) and be able to use it. But if she does, she is also breaking a few laws and you can get rid of her for a long time. Mirco From will.madden at gmail.com Tue Nov 25 15:14:05 2014 From: will.madden at gmail.com (Will) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 08:14:05 -0700 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: References: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> Message-ID: If you have a dozen or so members, you need to solve for the weakest (least technical) link in the chain, so assume that link is pretty weak. If you have a budget, buy everyone a cheap barebones laptop and install Ubuntu or a similar free linux distribution. ?Encrypt the hard drive at root, and ensure everyone uses a complex / high entropy password. ?Use the thunderbird email client with the enigmail/pgp extension and configure the client so all messages are encrypted and signed. ?This is ?relatively' safe. A more practical solution would be to use a service like:?https://protonmail.ch, and you?ll be supporting a worthy project as well in doing so.?? On November 25, 2014 at 7:51:25 AM, Michael LaTorra (mlatorra at gmail.com) wrote: I am certainly no expert, but I'll toss this idea out anyway: use a physical one-time pad. The pad lists one code per page. The pages are numbered. Everyone in your secure circle gets a copy of the pad. Use a numbered code page once, then destroy the page. In your message, you give the page number. If the reply does not include the proper code, it's been compromised. Best, Mike LaTorra On Nov 25, 2014 7:00 AM, "spike" wrote: Security hipsters, I need some advice or ideas.? We have a group of family history researchers, about a dozen of us who work together, share photos, family lore, findings from DNA and so forth.? Recently one of our circle went off her meds and did a lot of damage by hacking into another member?s email and writing messages to the other members with a false From line, all with carefully calculated malice.? It has us really freaked, because this cousin is very unpredictable and has a lot of brains and a lot of ill will, with more internet protocol savvy than the rest of us combined (she is a computer security expert.) ? I am thinking of a way to write some kind of code word or something into our email such that it would be evidence the message is from who it says.? Is there a standard way of doing this?? We can exchange the code word via phone so if the party in question has access to our email, it wouldn?t be intercepted.? Ideally it would be some kind of rotating code, different with each message but derived by some kind of externally-accessible information, not easily guessed.? An example would be the F10.7 cm radiation average from the sun on a given day.? That could be looked up each day and put in the email message somewhere.? Archives exist, so we could even go one year back.? Ideally we would want a code that changes by the hour.? Ideas please?? What do you security guys do to verify a sender? ? I don?t think my email has been compromised, so posting here or privately is OK. ? spike _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Nov 25 15:48:26 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 15:48:26 +0000 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> References: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Nov 25, 2014 at 1:43 PM, spike wrote: > Security hipsters, I need some advice or ideas. We have a group of family > history researchers, about a dozen of us who work together, share photos, > family lore, findings from DNA and so forth. Recently one of our circle > went off her meds and did a lot of damage by hacking into another member's > email and writing messages to the other members with a false From line, all > with carefully calculated malice. > > What do you security guys do to verify a sender? > There are a lot of problems to answer! First - Has an email account actually been hacked? Or is she just sending emails with a false From address? If an email account has been hacked, then everybody has to change passwords and call the cops. If she is spoofing From addresses, then she doesn't actually have access to any of your mail accounts. You cannot stop false From addresses - the Spam community depend on that feature. ;) Assuming we are just talking about false From addresses, then the simple way to verify is to Reply to Sender and ask if they sent this email. This could get tedious......... But the alternative is a bit complicated. You could all switch to Protonmail (or similar) as Will suggests. The alternative is to use PGP. You don't need to encrypt the whole message. Just add a PGP encrypted signature. But you have to learn how to do this for all the different email systems that you use. Another alternative is to set up a cloud database system where you all post and have unique passwords. Hope this helps! BillK From spike66 at att.net Tue Nov 25 16:34:55 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 08:34:55 -0800 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: References: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> Message-ID: <008001d008cd$bf6c7b60$3e457220$@att.net> Subject: Re: [ExI] hacked email On Tue, Nov 25, 2014 at 1:43 PM, spike wrote: > Security hipsters, I need some advice or ideas... Thanks to all who have posted ideas. Regarding the break-in, we think it was a walk-in. One of the family historians gave this young cousin his site password in case he dies unexpectedly. We think he used the same password for his email. When we mentioned the possibility, he didn't actually deny it but seemed to talk around the question. If you leave your door unlocked and someone walks into your home and wrecks your stuff, well, you share the responsibility. Some further background: since this is family history stuff, anyone who has ever done this kind of thing probably already knows the biggest challenges. Your most valuable players are nearly always little old ladies. Our MVP is 91. Little old ladies know things, and remember them long after we boys have died or long since forgotten because they don't matter much to us. The real challenge is they have little or no computer sophistication. They log on, they read, they reply, they send. When this whole thing came down, my mother really freaked. She isn't really a little old lady, in her 70s, but she has been a computer user since 1968. In a classic over reaction, she erased her entire email archive, every sent item, every received. Owww, damn. Those archives contained a lot of family history info which is now lost forever. Sigh. Several of the MVPs are her aunts and cousins, in their 80s and the one in her 90s. So any solution we use must be fairly unsophisticated and may not involve all of them. For the really old ones we don't really need to use this: their style is easy enough to recognize. But they are not the object of wrath anyway. The bad actor is a young lady, and she has the most animosity toward the other young ladies involved (perhaps a jealousy thing, we don't know.) In any case, I have an idea for how to run with that one-time pad notion Mike LaTorra posted. Here's the notion: I derive a list of 2400 words, make a table in excel on my son's computer which we know has not been compromised. I send it to the younger generation only and don't worry the old ones with this. Then when someone writes a post, they look up the time in hours and minutes, puts the word beside that number. Then we change the pad every couple weeks. So this post would have something like 0834 carbuncle We don't need military level security, just an indicator. Wouldn't that work? spike From pharos at gmail.com Tue Nov 25 17:29:50 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 17:29:50 +0000 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: <008001d008cd$bf6c7b60$3e457220$@att.net> References: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> <008001d008cd$bf6c7b60$3e457220$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Nov 25, 2014 at 4:34 PM, spike wrote: > Regarding the break-in, we think it was a walk-in. One of the family > historians gave this young cousin his site password in case he dies > unexpectedly. We think he used the same password for his email. When we > mentioned the possibility, he didn't actually deny it but seemed to talk > around the question. If you leave your door unlocked and someone walks into > your home and wrecks your stuff, well, you share the responsibility. > > That makes it sound as though you no longer have a problem. If he changes his site and email passwords, then the cousin will no longer have access. It is a good idea to put a list of signons and passwords in your will folder, where nobody looks until after your death. Now you need to have a discussion about email backups, so that deleted stuff can be restored. (Ask the IRS for advice). :) BillK From atymes at gmail.com Tue Nov 25 17:41:45 2014 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 09:41:45 -0800 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: <008001d008cd$bf6c7b60$3e457220$@att.net> References: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> <008001d008cd$bf6c7b60$3e457220$@att.net> Message-ID: On Nov 25, 2014 8:49 AM, "spike" wrote: > We don't need military level security, just an indicator. Wouldn't that > work? Why wouldn't your forging cousin have the same access as anyone else in your family to this? Given the situation, the table on the sending computer could have been looked up at the same time your cousin guessed the shared passwords. Also, why wouldn't anything that inconvenient to use not get quickly abandoned - assuming you could talk everyone into using it in the first place? I suspect any practical solution here must be 100% automated, otherwise you are just wasting time...but at the same time, any 100% automated solution needs to verify which person is actually at the keyboard. In theory passwords do this, but you might want to consider biometrics too (especially since most sites do not use them yet). Also, that mother who deleted emails - are they still in her Trash folder? Many email clients "delete" by moving stuff to Trash, then auto-emptying Trash some undefined time later (often at least weeks). -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Tue Nov 25 17:31:32 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 09:31:32 -0800 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: <008001d008cd$bf6c7b60$3e457220$@att.net> References: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> <008001d008cd$bf6c7b60$3e457220$@att.net> Message-ID: <00c801d008d5$a85ba920$f912fb60$@att.net> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike >...Some further background: since this is family history stuff, anyone who has ever done this kind of thing probably already knows the biggest challenges. Your most valuable players are nearly always little old ladies. Our MVP is 91. Little old ladies know things, and remember them long after we boys have died... spike I could make a one-time pad on another computer, make seven columns, then the sender looks up the time and goes over to the column for the day of the week. Send the one-time pad from the other computer and email account. Then we wouldn't worry the little old ladies with the whole scheme but we younger ones would use it, for the most likely spoof would be from one of our accounts anyway. Regarding family history, I do wish to leave you with this message, especially the younger ones among us. If you have the least bit of interest in your family history, or if you think you might eeeeever ever develop an interest in that, or your children might someday, I do implore you to find your oldest living relatives and talk to them, even if it involves using that ancient technology we used to call the telephone. Plenty of the old ones don't even have email or are uncomfortable with it, but they can still talk and they can still remember. In most cases they are eager to tell their stories. Record those, write them, do it. Reason: many years ago, when I was in my 20s, I found an elderly aunt who was then 90. She was still mentally sharp then (she lived to be 101, one of those very rare people who lived in three different centuries.) She gave me a pile of stuff, childhood memories of my great great grandparents and so forth. That one-hour interview, which I recorded and transcribed, is some of the most valuable family history stuff we have, firsthand accounts of life on the family farm before mechanization of any kind, before WW1 (her childhood and teens.) Get that, get as much of it as you can, if you think you will ever develop the slightest interest in it, because once they are gone, their memories are gone forever, unless you do something forthwith. So get on the phone, call your grandmothers if you are lucky enough to still have them. spike From spike66 at att.net Tue Nov 25 17:49:55 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 09:49:55 -0800 Subject: [ExI] recovered email and news distractions, was: RE: hacked email Message-ID: <00c901d008d8$39dd58b0$ad980a10$@att.net> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of BillK >...That makes it sound as though you no longer have a problem. If he changes his site and email passwords, then the cousin will no longer have access... Ja. We don't know what to do about this, but the site and archive passwords have been passed to another cousin who is a bit more... hmmm what's the word?... Sane. >...It is a good idea to put a list of signons and passwords in your will folder, where nobody looks until after your death... Roger that, thanks. >...Now you need to have a discussion about email backups, so that deleted stuff can be restored. (Ask the IRS for advice). :) BillK _______________________________________________ BillK, the IRS email files have been found. The news of that came out Friday while the colonies were distracted by several other big stories, the ice storms, the delayed grand jury verdict on that cop who slew the fleeing felon in St. Louis, the result of which is now widespread riots, our Secretary of Defense being fired, and of course the usual weekend news clutter, the epic football catch which was totally cool even for those of us who scarcely know the difference between a football and an aardvark: http://deadspin.com/odell-beckham-jr-makes-circus-catch-of-the-year-for-a-16 62456576 Even I, the uber-geek non-sports guy, freely admit that one in a jillion catch was epic as all hell, and I do completely understand if the cheering drowns out the news of the missing email being recovered. It will take months to comb thru that IRS email, and even then, we don't know if someone hasn't already done exactly that, for we have no independent metadata to compare. The recovered email files might have already been sanitized. spike From mbb386 at main.nc.us Tue Nov 25 18:01:44 2014 From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 13:01:44 -0500 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: References: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> <008001d008cd$bf6c7b60$3e457220$@att.net> Message-ID: <1be4874dae7303db231dfd0ef67a050a.squirrel@www.main.nc.us> > Now you need to have a discussion about email backups, so > that deleted > stuff can be restored. > (Ask the IRS for advice). :) > Yes, where are the backups? Even I have backups... they may not be *most current* but they are on a different machine altogether, not connected to the others. And they *are* there, I check them every now and then to be sure. Regards, MB From spike66 at att.net Tue Nov 25 18:04:27 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 10:04:27 -0800 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: References: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> <008001d008cd$bf6c7b60$3e457220$@att.net> Message-ID: <00e501d008da$419c7610$c4d56230$@att.net> From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes Sent: Tuesday, November 25, 2014 9:42 AM To: ExI chat list Subject: Re: [ExI] hacked email On Nov 25, 2014 8:49 AM, "spike" wrote: > We don't need military level security, just an indicator. Wouldn't that > work? >?Why wouldn't your forging cousin have the same access as anyone else in your family to this? Given the situation, the table on the sending computer could have been looked up at the same time your cousin guessed the shared passwords? Ja, the one-time pad would go only to five members of the circle. The rest of them probably aren?t compromised. The five have at least moderate computer skills, so I might try to set them up with an excel spreadsheet with a VLOOKUP feature and use the NOW() function. That would be easy to write. >?Also, why wouldn't anything that inconvenient to use not get quickly abandoned - assuming you could talk everyone into using it in the first place? It needs to be super simple, ja. In the above example I just create a list of words in seven columns. The user opens the file and hits ctrl =, which is the calculate function. The spreadsheet hands back a word. The user writes the word in the file and hits send. >?Also, that mother who deleted emails - are they still in her Trash folder? Many email clients "delete" by moving stuff to Trash, then auto-emptying Trash some undefined time later (often at least weeks). She deleted everything and emptied the trash. She paid a computer service to clean her disk and get rid of everything, every cookie, everything not specifically identified as a program file or a personal document. Sigh. On the other hand, the most important information was saved, so I won?t lose too much sleep over it. Granted we might not get everyone to use any system regardless of how simple, so it is possible our best days are behind us with that group. This is too bad, because it was a rich vein indeed on the family history. We discovered a shameful truth: the man after whom I named my own son was a Tory. Apologies BillK, but that is a stigma, a dark stain which our family must bear with heavy hearts. But hey, it was a long time ago. Genealogy is not for the faint of heart. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Tue Nov 25 18:35:16 2014 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 13:35:16 -0500 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: <00e501d008da$419c7610$c4d56230$@att.net> References: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> <008001d008cd$bf6c7b60$3e457220$@att.net> <00e501d008da$419c7610$c4d56230$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Nov 25, 2014 at 1:04 PM, spike wrote: > Ja, the one-time pad http://knowyourmeme.com/photos/342270 A one-time pad is a stream stream of bytes that's XOR'd with each byte of plaintext. Decrypting requires XOR'ing the cyphertext with the same one-time pad. If the pad is sufficiently random, the cyphertext is unbreakable. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-time_pad -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Tue Nov 25 18:41:29 2014 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 13:41:29 -0500 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: References: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> <008001d008cd$bf6c7b60$3e457220$@att.net> <00e501d008da$419c7610$c4d56230$@att.net> Message-ID: Sorry, wrong image: http://knowyourmeme.com/photos/342505-you-keep-using-that-word-i-do-not-think-it-means-what-you-think-it-means -Dave On Tue, Nov 25, 2014 at 1:35 PM, Dave Sill wrote: > On Tue, Nov 25, 2014 at 1:04 PM, spike wrote: > >> Ja, the one-time pad > > > http://knowyourmeme.com/photos/342270 > > A one-time pad is a stream stream of bytes that's XOR'd with each byte of > plaintext. Decrypting requires XOR'ing the cyphertext with the same > one-time pad. If the pad is sufficiently random, the cyphertext is > unbreakable. > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-time_pad > > -Dave > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Tue Nov 25 20:13:07 2014 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 15:13:07 -0500 Subject: [ExI] recovered email and news distractions, was: RE: hacked email In-Reply-To: <00c901d008d8$39dd58b0$ad980a10$@att.net> References: <00c901d008d8$39dd58b0$ad980a10$@att.net> Message-ID: On Tue, Nov 25, 2014 at 12:49 PM, spike wrote (over several posts): >[summarized] little old lady authentication I wonder if you could teach them how to scan (snap a pic with a ubiquitous smartphone) hand-written documents? You'd have the benefit of handwriting analysis to authenticate the scribbles (most of which is probably letter-perfect thanks to old-school english teachers and years of Christmas letters) You'd also lower the barrier to actually communicating some of those boxes of old photos that old(er) people haven't already had their children upload. While it is true that copy/paste or "quote" features of email would not be available, I doubt the community you are describing is using them much anyway. I imagine AI will be able to decipher those writings by the time your grandchildren are reprocessing your email archives to extract the handwriting samples from your grandparents. In that vein, handwritten letters are a form of art that will soon be lost. They should be captured and curated as lovingly as grandma's heirloom quilt. From pharos at gmail.com Tue Nov 25 22:32:40 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 22:32:40 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Teaching Google cars to be more human Message-ID: In 700,000 miles of navigating roads, Google's self-driving cars have encountered just about everything - including an elderly woman in a motorized wheelchair flailing a broom at a duck she was chasing around the street. Apparently perplexed and taking no chances, the vehicle stopped and refused to go farther. Through extensive testing covering nearly every street in Mountain View, the company's 20 or so autonomous vehicles have developed an abiding sense of caution But......... One of the most surprising lessons: While hoping to make cars that are safer than those driven by people, Google has discovered its smart machines need to act a little human, especially when dealing with pushy motorists. "We found that we actually need to be - not aggressive - but assertive" with the vehicles, said Nathaniel Fairfield, technical leader of a team that writes software fixes for problems uncovered during the driving tests. "If you're always yielding and conservative, basically everybody will just stomp on you all day." ------------- So AI has to fight back against human domination.......... BillK From csaucier at sovacs.com Tue Nov 25 14:09:42 2014 From: csaucier at sovacs.com (Christian Saucier) Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 09:09:42 -0500 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> References: <008801d008b5$cccbde80$66639b80$@att.net> Message-ID: <152D0DCB-4EFD-4BDB-8873-CE1647917142@sovacs.com> Why not get an email client that supports PGP and use electronic signatures? C. On November 25, 2014 8:43:29 AM EST, spike wrote: >Security hipsters, I need some advice or ideas. We have a group of >family >history researchers, about a dozen of us who work together, share >photos, >family lore, findings from DNA and so forth. Recently one of our >circle >went off her meds and did a lot of damage by hacking into another >member's >email and writing messages to the other members with a false From line, >all >with carefully calculated malice. It has us really freaked, because >this >cousin is very unpredictable and has a lot of brains and a lot of ill >will, >with more internet protocol savvy than the rest of us combined (she is >a >computer security expert.) > > > >I am thinking of a way to write some kind of code word or something >into our >email such that it would be evidence the message is from who it says. >Is >there a standard way of doing this? We can exchange the code word via >phone >so if the party in question has access to our email, it wouldn't be >intercepted. Ideally it would be some kind of rotating code, different >with >each message but derived by some kind of externally-accessible >information, >not easily guessed. An example would be the F10.7 cm radiation average >from >the sun on a given day. That could be looked up each day and put in >the >email message somewhere. Archives exist, so we could even go one year >back. >Ideally we would want a code that changes by the hour. Ideas please? >What >do you security guys do to verify a sender? > > > >I don't think my email has been compromised, so posting here or >privately is >OK. > > > >spike > > > >------------------------------------------------------------------------ > >_______________________________________________ >extropy-chat mailing list >extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Thu Nov 27 18:18:18 2014 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan) Date: Thu, 27 Nov 2014 10:18:18 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Exoplanet is about 2K AU from its primary Message-ID: <21EFC0B7-83E0-495A-BE4B-3C57B1AF63AA@gmail.com> http://www.cosmosup.com/a-record-among-exoplanets-a-gas-giant-is-around-2000-times-the-earth-sun-distance-from-its-star/ Regards, Dan -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Fri Nov 28 08:45:27 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Fri, 28 Nov 2014 09:45:27 +0100 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <4119269421-6679@secure.ericade.net> The problem with most schemes discussed here are, as Adrian pointed out, that?anything that is inconvenient to use will get quickly abandoned - this is why PGP is not ubiquitous, despite having been around for 20 years. Developing a few healthy computer security habits is a good life skill for anyone, but unless you feel actively threatened they will not be far-reaching. Which is why getting a disruptive group member is usually a nasty surprise and too late to set up anything clever. A system for authenticating that I am who I am is likely best done using encrypted signatures (the math is good) rather than attempts at hiding simple pieces of information in the messages, since the eavesdropping Eve will likely learn about it while listening to Alice and Bob. Signatures likely require proper public key crypto to actually work; I have not seen any non-PKI system that allows outsiders to verify my signature. In the end, remember Bruce Schneier's warning in Practical Cryptography: "in the past decade, cryptography has done more to damage the security of digital systems than it has to enhance it." (!) Security can never be guaranteed by tech, it is a matter of human trust and resilience. Relying too much on ever so cool protocols will let you down when the assumptions of who or what is trustworthy turn wrong. (Still, cool tech is cool. At my wedding party I met the head of Humanity+ Sweden who had an implanted bitcoin wallet chip. We discussed the possibilities for crypto-enhanced wedding rings - when the priest blesses the rings it is an ideal moment to generate and cross-sign private keys, with God as a witness to the transaction. ) Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Fri Nov 28 15:16:02 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Fri, 28 Nov 2014 07:16:02 -0800 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: <4119269421-6679@secure.ericade.net> References: <4119269421-6679@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <014501d00b1e$39aa7060$acff5120$@att.net> From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg >?(Still, cool tech is cool. At my wedding party I met the head of Humanity+ Sweden who had an implanted bitcoin wallet chip. We discussed the possibilities for crypto-enhanced wedding rings - when the priest blesses the rings it is an ideal moment to generate and cross-sign private keys, with God as a witness to the transaction. ) Anders Sandberg? Anders, you are evolution?s gift to technology. May you live forever. Best wishes with married life. I has worked out well for me. {8-] spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Sat Nov 29 09:59:53 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sat, 29 Nov 2014 09:59:53 +0000 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: <4119269421-6679@secure.ericade.net> References: <4119269421-6679@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: On Fri, Nov 28, 2014 at 8:45 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > The problem with most schemes discussed here are, as Adrian pointed out, > that anything that is inconvenient to use will get quickly abandoned - this > is why PGP is not ubiquitous, despite having been around for 20 years. > Developing a few healthy computer security habits is a good life skill for > anyone, but unless you feel actively threatened they will not be > far-reaching. Which is why getting a disruptive group member is usually a > nasty surprise and too late to set up anything clever. > > A system for authenticating that I am who I am is likely best done using > encrypted signatures (the math is good) rather than attempts at hiding > simple pieces of information in the messages, since the eavesdropping Eve > will likely learn about it while listening to Alice and Bob. Signatures > likely require proper public key crypto to actually work; I have not seen > any non-PKI system that allows outsiders to verify my signature. > Agreed. But as I understand Spike's description of the problem, key verification and encryption would not solve his problem. His group has a 'user' problem. The troublesome user was given full access to another user's machine and used that machine to send false messages. The only way to solve that problem is to stop the false user having access to the original user's machine. In other news, Whatsapp has implemented end-to-end encryption for messaging using Android smartphones. Identity key verification is in progress and will soon be included. This application is invisible to the user, which is what encryption needs to become widely used. Note that this is total encryption. Unlike most email systems, (Google, Yahoo, etc.), Whatsapp itself cannot decrypt the messages, even when ordered to by government. Snowden approves! ;) BillK From anders at aleph.se Sat Nov 29 16:25:27 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sat, 29 Nov 2014 17:25:27 +0100 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: <014501d00b1e$39aa7060$acff5120$@att.net> Message-ID: <4226746468-8882@secure.ericade.net> Spike??, 28/11/2014 4:34 PM: ? >?(Still, cool tech is cool. At my wedding party I met the head of Humanity+ Sweden who had an implanted bitcoin wallet chip. We discussed the possibilities for crypto-enhanced wedding rings - when the priest blesses the rings it is an ideal moment to generate and cross-sign private keys, with God as a witness to the transaction. ) Anders Sandberg? ? Anders, you are evolution?s gift to technology.? May you live forever.? Best wishes with married life.? I has worked out well for me.? {8-] Awww... :-) A friend sent me this link for NFC rings:?http://nfcring.com/bitcoin/ ?Now, my problem is that I already have two rings, so adding a third might be a bit excessive. But titanium...? My wedding ring is tungsten, which is awesome anyway. But it would be even cooler with something really exotic like scandium. Or metallic hydrogen kept in shape by a diamond (just don't crack it).? Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Sat Nov 29 17:53:20 2014 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Sat, 29 Nov 2014 12:53:20 -0500 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: <4226746468-8882@secure.ericade.net> References: <014501d00b1e$39aa7060$acff5120$@att.net> <4226746468-8882@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: On Sat, Nov 29, 2014 at 11:25 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > > > My wedding ring is tungsten, which is awesome anyway. But it would be even > cooler with something really exotic like scandium. Or metallic hydrogen > kept in shape by a diamond (just don't crack it). > ### Tungsten or tungsten carbide? My cryonics bracelet and dog tag are made of tungsten carbide, it's definitely harder than tungsten alone. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike66 at att.net Sun Nov 30 04:15:27 2014 From: spike66 at att.net (spike) Date: Sat, 29 Nov 2014 20:15:27 -0800 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: References: <4119269421-6679@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: <01c601d00c54$46cde830$d469b890$@att.net> >... On Behalf Of BillK Subject: Re: [ExI] hacked email On Fri, Nov 28, 2014 at 8:45 AM, Anders Sandberg wrote: >>... The problem with most schemes discussed here are, as Adrian pointed > out, that anything that is inconvenient to use will get quickly > abandoned - this is why PGP is not ubiquitous, despite having been around for 20 years... >...Agreed. But as I understand Spike's description of the problem, key verification and encryption would not solve his problem. His group has a 'user' problem. The troublesome user was given full access to another user's machine and used that machine to send false messages...BillK _______________________________________________ The low-tech solution worked in this case. We just had the suspected victim of the walk-in change his email password and the problem has not recurred. The bad-actor did write at least one other suspect email, from her father's account. But by the time that one occurred, we are already alert and recognized it immediately. The damage was painful but limited. spike From pharos at gmail.com Sun Nov 30 14:31:02 2014 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 30 Nov 2014 14:31:02 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Driverless buses rather than cars? Message-ID: Slashdot points to an interesting article that suggests that robot buses could happen before robot cars. There are already driverless trains running. Fixed route, fixed stops, automated signalling, etc. Similarly, robot buses should be much simpler (and cheaper) to build than cars. The routes and stops are fixed, so no need for large maps. There could be separate bus lanes, but the best road space usage would be if the buses knew enough to mix in with normal traffic. Mini electric buses could be used on less popular routes. The point was made that robot cars would mean car traffic in cities would still be very dense, driving nose-to-tail. (Faster robot reactions mean cars driving safely closer together). Robot buses should reduce traffic jams more than robot cars. This would fit in with the younger millennial generation, who don't buy cars and prefer to bike and walk around town. BillK From anders at aleph.se Sun Nov 30 21:25:07 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sun, 30 Nov 2014 22:25:07 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Wanderers Message-ID: <43409931-19422@secure.ericade.net> The dose of vision for this weekend:http://vimeo.com/108650530 (Except that I expect slightly more ambitious bodies too) Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From anders at aleph.se Sun Nov 30 22:01:00 2014 From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg) Date: Sun, 30 Nov 2014 23:01:00 +0100 Subject: [ExI] hacked email In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <43567190-28411@secure.ericade.net> Rafal Smigrodzki??, 29/11/2014 6:57 PM: ### Tungsten or tungsten carbide? My cryonics bracelet and dog tag are made of tungsten carbide, it's definitely harder than tungsten alone. It is mostly tungsten carbide. I seem to recall that it is less brittle too. Overall, we choose black faceted and rather understated rings:?https://flic.kr/p/pY7dfZ So far I have not had the inclination of testing just what I can and cannot scratch with it... Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From jan.vandenbos at gmail.com Sun Nov 30 22:10:49 2014 From: jan.vandenbos at gmail.com (Jan Vandenbos) Date: Sun, 30 Nov 2014 14:10:49 -0800 Subject: [ExI] Wanderers In-Reply-To: <43409931-19422@secure.ericade.net> References: <43409931-19422@secure.ericade.net> Message-ID: Love these videos. The Ambition film was similarly amazing. I think we need more of these to stimulate interest in space and the future. JV On Sun, Nov 30, 2014 at 1:25 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote: > The dose of vision for this weekend: > http://vimeo.com/108650530 > > (Except that I expect slightly more ambitious bodies too) > > Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford > University > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -- ?We shall build a tower so tall, we can mine the very stars themselves!? -- Dwarf Fortress -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: