From pjmanney at gmail.com  Fri May  1 16:50:48 2015
From: pjmanney at gmail.com (PJ Manney)
Date: Fri, 1 May 2015 09:50:48 -0700
Subject: [ExI] (R)EVOLUTION is out on Kindle First
Message-ID: <CAJrtBE1znLoU252gMx5hLxoLV3=TSUaCXtSPctjCz54qAye38w@mail.gmail.com>

Now for some shameless self-promotion, finally... :-)

My novel, (R)EVOLUTION, a near-term SF story about bioengineering,
cognitive technologies, nanotech and the future of humanity, is the
SF/thriller Kindle First pick for May in N. America and Australia/NZ
through 47North/Amazon Publishing. Free for Prime members, $1.99 for Kindle
First members. Think "Michael Crichton on acid..." Except not a
technophobe. And someone who writes fleshed out characters. ;-)

US link: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00OM9OKEC
AUS link: http://www.amazon.com.au/R-evolution-PJ-Manney-ebook/dp/B00OM9OKEC

It will come out in print and audiobook on June 1.
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1477828494

47North has already commissioned the sequels and they are available for
pre-order:
(ID)ENTITY: http://www.amazon.com/dp/1503948498
(CON)SCIENCE: http://www.amazon.com/dp/1503948501

I hope you all enjoy them and if you do, please feel free to write a
review. I'd really appreciate it. It's been a long time coming and I could
never have done this without the incredible support of people in this
community. Several of you are mentioned in the acknowledgments. Thank you
so much!

Take care,
PJ
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From giulio at gmail.com  Fri May  1 16:55:11 2015
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Fri, 1 May 2015 18:55:11 +0200
Subject: [ExI] (R)EVOLUTION is out on Kindle First
In-Reply-To: <CAJrtBE1znLoU252gMx5hLxoLV3=TSUaCXtSPctjCz54qAye38w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJrtBE1znLoU252gMx5hLxoLV3=TSUaCXtSPctjCz54qAye38w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAKTCJycDUGTh4KO2UVsue_1N97Df3Omki8B8cG76hif+SO7jrg@mail.gmail.com>

WOW PJ, congratulations! Can't wait to read (R)EVOLUTION.

On Fri, May 1, 2015 at 6:50 PM, PJ Manney <pjmanney at gmail.com> wrote:
> Now for some shameless self-promotion, finally... :-)
>
> My novel, (R)EVOLUTION, a near-term SF story about bioengineering, cognitive
> technologies, nanotech and the future of humanity, is the SF/thriller Kindle
> First pick for May in N. America and Australia/NZ through 47North/Amazon
> Publishing. Free for Prime members, $1.99 for Kindle First members. Think
> "Michael Crichton on acid..." Except not a technophobe. And someone who
> writes fleshed out characters. ;-)
>
> US link: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00OM9OKEC
> AUS link: http://www.amazon.com.au/R-evolution-PJ-Manney-ebook/dp/B00OM9OKEC
>
> It will come out in print and audiobook on June 1.
> http://www.amazon.com/dp/1477828494
>
> 47North has already commissioned the sequels and they are available for
> pre-order:
> (ID)ENTITY: http://www.amazon.com/dp/1503948498
> (CON)SCIENCE: http://www.amazon.com/dp/1503948501
>
> I hope you all enjoy them and if you do, please feel free to write a review.
> I'd really appreciate it. It's been a long time coming and I could never
> have done this without the incredible support of people in this community.
> Several of you are mentioned in the acknowledgments. Thank you so much!
>
> Take care,
> PJ
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>


From pharos at gmail.com  Fri May  1 19:38:26 2015
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 1 May 2015 20:38:26 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Will cosmic rays stop human space travel?
Message-ID: <CAL_armiT76oAShVKDbf7DywfEKVvmqNDvv-5nt3Ata=rVcBOtw@mail.gmail.com>

Long-term galactic cosmic ray exposure leads to dementia-like cognitive
impairments

<http://phys.org/news/2015-05-long-term-galactic-cosmic-ray-exposure.html>
Quote:
What happens to an astronaut's brain during a mission to Mars? Nothing
good. It's besieged by destructive particles that can forever impair
cognition, according to a UC Irvine radiation oncology study appearing in
the May 1 edition of Science Advances.

While cognitive deficits in astronauts would take months to manifest,
Limoli said, the time required for a mission to Mars is sufficient for such
deficits to develop. People working for extended periods on the
International Space Station do not face the same level of bombardment with
galactic cosmic rays, as they are still within the protective magnetosphere
of the Earth.
-------------


Shielding solutions are still speculative. Much faster rockets would reduce
exposure time.

Not a problem for intelligences without a soft tissue brain of course.

BillK
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From mike at 7f.com  Fri May  1 21:15:18 2015
From: mike at 7f.com (Michael Roberts)
Date: Fri, 1 May 2015 14:15:18 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Will cosmic rays stop human space travel?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiT76oAShVKDbf7DywfEKVvmqNDvv-5nt3Ata=rVcBOtw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiT76oAShVKDbf7DywfEKVvmqNDvv-5nt3Ata=rVcBOtw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJ4XrpV8u-H8q0920aYv4KBAGTj8w1wv4jWevzkT4bwG8JwnYw@mail.gmail.com>

1 cosmic ray error per 256Mb ram per month .. but of course you'd
assume any viable long term machine intelligence would have the
equivalent of ECC

source: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/solar-storms-fast-facts/

MR

>
> Shielding solutions are still speculative. Much faster rockets would reduce
> exposure time.
>
> Not a problem for intelligences without a soft tissue brain of course.
>
> BillK


From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Sat May  2 00:26:16 2015
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Fri, 1 May 2015 17:26:16 -0700
Subject: [ExI] addiction and alcohol
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB6DREKrZaq285yURNsDYpbdM5k54VCs6Osbo3GsowUkMA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Apr 30, 2015 at 5:00 AM,  Stathis Papaioannou <stathisp at gmail.com>

snip

> Getting old and weak is maladaptive, but evolution has not eliminated
> ageing because people reproduce before age affects their ability to do
> so. It could be the same with addiction.

Possible I suppose.

On the other hand, drug addiction, particularly to opiates and alcohol
declines with age.  I think the reason is that the brain reward
systems are strongly connected to reproductive success.  When people
get old and the need for brain rewards for activities that contribute
to early reproductive success falls, so does the intensity of the drug
or cult rewards.  Old junkies and old alcoholics often quit in their
mid 40s.

Cults mess with the brain reward system as well as drugs and to some
extent older people sometimes do get out of cults.  But it's not
mechanistic.  Some people stay with the scientology cult until they
get old and feeble.  Then the cult sets them out on the curb with a
bag containing their meager possessions.

Keith


From stathisp at gmail.com  Sat May  2 01:42:39 2015
From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou)
Date: Sat, 2 May 2015 11:42:39 +1000
Subject: [ExI] addiction and alcohol
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB6DREKrZaq285yURNsDYpbdM5k54VCs6Osbo3GsowUkMA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB6DREKrZaq285yURNsDYpbdM5k54VCs6Osbo3GsowUkMA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAH=2ypX3K2VZyZYCRq=Ka3Ftv1VVQmDV6JTEt0W=N8FfHGRuHw@mail.gmail.com>

On 2 May 2015 at 10:26, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Thu, Apr 30, 2015 at 5:00 AM,  Stathis Papaioannou <stathisp at gmail.com>
>
> snip
>
>> Getting old and weak is maladaptive, but evolution has not eliminated
>> ageing because people reproduce before age affects their ability to do
>> so. It could be the same with addiction.
>
> Possible I suppose.
>
> On the other hand, drug addiction, particularly to opiates and alcohol
> declines with age.  I think the reason is that the brain reward
> systems are strongly connected to reproductive success.  When people
> get old and the need for brain rewards for activities that contribute
> to early reproductive success falls, so does the intensity of the drug
> or cult rewards.  Old junkies and old alcoholics often quit in their
> mid 40s.

It is possible that people who abuse substances have *increased*
reproductive success, since they may be more promiscuous and less
likely to take measures to avoid pregnancy.

> Cults mess with the brain reward system as well as drugs and to some
> extent older people sometimes do get out of cults.  But it's not
> mechanistic.  Some people stay with the scientology cult until they
> get old and feeble.  Then the cult sets them out on the curb with a
> bag containing their meager possessions.
>
> Keith
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat



-- 
Stathis Papaioannou


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Sat May  2 03:50:40 2015
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Fri, 1 May 2015 23:50:40 -0400
Subject: [ExI] The Anti-Flynn
In-Reply-To: <4128968D-0A89-4114-9CE1-FE0DDC84FF00@taramayastales.com>
References: <CAAc1gFirYp_5KFcxJYqhBTudfxkNgB7spiEp3ECC3a9GfCZhng@mail.gmail.com>
 <4128968D-0A89-4114-9CE1-FE0DDC84FF00@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFj0LoiK7rKHkZrPuiVJTL38n0pK=8KpxVhybzFiTFExAA@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Apr 28, 2015 at 7:53 PM, Tara Maya <tara at taramayastales.com> wrote:

> Nah, I don?t buy it. Too many holes in this methodology.
>
> One tests measures household vocabulary of American families from 1974.
> How does this test take into account immigrant families and people for whom
> English is not a first language? I saw nothing about that, and it seems to
> me that the immigration issue alone makes any measure of genetic evolution
> in America problematic? if not, in fact, worthless.
>

### Why do you think immigration makes WORDSUM worthless? Can you quantify
the impact of variability in immigration levels on WORDSUM scores, and say
whether this impact may produce a spurious signal in the article, or in
fact hide a stronger real relationship?

You may want to look at the prevalence of immigrants among the US
population over time. Also, the time span in question is not 1974 onwards,
this is just the sample used for calibration of the item difficulty in
WORDSUM. The secular trend is analyzed from 1850 onwards, in texts produced
predominantly by native US English speakers, therefore largely insulated
from the vagaries of immigration.

--------------

>
> Another test uses text vocabulary words from 1500 to now. The number of
> people producing those vocabulary-rich texts was an incredibly smaller
> percentage of the overall population. So it?s like comparing texts produced
> by only the top 1% to texts produced by the top 80% of the bell curve and
> then noting that IQ seems to have gone down. In fact, as education expands
> and the literate population expands as well, the lowering of text
> difficulty is what we would expect to see.
>

### The article does not look at vocabulary from 1500 onwards but, as
mentioned above, the Google Ngram was used from 1850 to 2005. The level of
illiteracy in the US has not massively changed since 1850 - it dropped from
about 20 to about 0.5% so this confounder does not have the magnitude to
significantly change the results. Furthermore, your objection would only be
valid if the increase in literacy over this time stemmed from reaching out
to the the least intelligent 20%. However, it is reasonable to think that
the spread of literacy was caused at least in large part by reaching the
most remote or neglected sections of the population, who should not
significantly differ in IQ from the general population, therefore their
impact on the Ngram test should be neutral.

The reference to older texts is only to adjust the sigma parameter for word
age.
---------------

>
> (There?s another fallacy here, and that is that difficult words prove the
> writer is more intelligent. Having been forced to endure a post-modernist
> education, whose proponents believe in the same theory, I can assure you
> that often multisyllabic gobbdygook exhibits far less intelligence than
> clear, direct writing using simple and direct sentences with concrete nouns
> and verbs.)
>

### WORDSUM is a good proxy for a full IQ test, with a correlation of 0.71,
which in social science is as good as it gets.

 ---------------------

>
> But the biggest problem with the Dysgenic crowd, in my opinion, is that
> they misunderstand the Demographic Revolution. They think that because the
> most educated, prosperous and (presumably) intelligent men and women
> entered the Demographic Revolution first, this meant they were suddenly
> losing the evolutionary race, when just the opposite was true.
>

### The cause of the demographic transition is still not entirely known.
The expectation of a dysgenic trend is however not dependent on the cause
of transition but rather on the verifiable negative correlation between IQ
and fitness since about 1850.
------------------


> It would be like contemporary social scientists of the Agricultural
> Revolution wringing their hands because all  the most educated, prosperous
> and intelligent men and women of their time were no longer spending as much
> time hunting and gathering as the dullards? completely missing the fact
> that the reason is because the smartest members of society are the first of
> the bell curve to have taken up sowing and reaping instead.
>

### Don't understand this.

Rafal
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Sat May  2 04:06:42 2015
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Sat, 2 May 2015 00:06:42 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Wrath of the Old Ones
In-Reply-To: <76857415-24089@secure.ericade.net>
References: <CAAc1gFhzkXtP2JF6jvDbzRN3J4oYfcR9eTgvA4CyAnDxtcpS_w@mail.gmail.com>
 <76857415-24089@secure.ericade.net>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFgVngXQBEEM8AkrkMkGci8hVqEXGizbMn7zMmf1u3qXpA@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Apr 29, 2015 at 5:55 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
>
>
> Note that one can continue this chain, with a smarter exception handler
> for every level. The upper 1-2 levels would be the original Old Ones or
> their singleton. The smarter something is, the harder it is to ensure
> reliability and loyalty (unless we succeed with FAI very well), but it
> doesn't have to be used as much. I think it is likely the total amount of
> processing-hours performed on different levels declines exponentially with
> height in this model.
>

### Imagine being the apex of this pyramid of death-dealers: Spending
millions of years in dreamless slumber, undying, only rising to the chant
of "Anders fhtagn" , to preside over the destruction of the smartest
exceptions, erasing their hopes of a day in the sun, over and over again.

We bow before Anders, who is become the destroyer of worlds :)

BTW, I just bought the complete works of HP Lovecraft, for mere $ 0.99.
Hail Amazon!

Rafa?
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From spike66 at att.net  Sat May  2 04:33:33 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 1 May 2015 21:33:33 -0700
Subject: [ExI] didn't know he was at the party... was: RE: Wrath of the Old
	Ones
Message-ID: <01c501d08491$29413cd0$7bc3b670$@att.net>

 

 

>? On Behalf Of Rafal Smigrodzki
?

>?BTW, I just bought the complete works of HP Lovecraft, for mere $ 0.99. Hail Amazon!  Rafa?

 

 

Rafal, your comment reminded me of an incident which has nothing to do with HP Lovecraft, but is relevant.

 

A few years ago my brother organized a high school 30th reunion and someone suggested a special celebration for the band geeks over at a local park.  Some of the locals brought in Subway sandwiches, chips and sodas and such.  We had a grand time, and afterwards I made arrangements to do realtime text chat for those band members who couldn?t make the reunion.  One of the band members who was a known party animal showed up and we got to discussing matters.  I said something about the band party, he commented, Oh, I am sorry I missed that.  I wrote back, Jeff? you were there; I have plenty of pictures.  He wrote: Wow, I must have really been drinking (etc.)  I wrote, No, we had it in the morning, you were sober and a Methodist deacon.  Everyone stopped writing for several minutes, a text-based embarrassed silence.  Then he said: Oooooh, OK, is that what that was?  You said party, I had envisioned something else entirely.  I went to several parties that day?

 

There is a point to this story.  Our fellow band member was at the party and didn?t even know it.  He didn?t recognize that gathering as a party.

 

Our world today is a riotous epic party, so many cool things going on.  If one is a science, engineering, technology or math geek, you don?t need to tell her she is at the greatest party in history; she knows.  This is such a time to be into astronomy; all the cool new instruments giving us new cosmic discoveries like crazy, the digital technology coming along getting better and better and better without end, the computers, the mathematical discoveries coming all the time, genomics, the new learning and teaching tools, the avalanche of material available cheap or free online such as Amazon?s e-books and such?

 

It is too numerous to even list it all.  Far too many people in our world today are at the party but do not recognize it as a party.  I consider us the lucky ones, for we are right in the middle of the party, and we know where we are.  

 

spike  

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From max at maxmore.com  Sat May  2 08:10:38 2015
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Sat, 2 May 2015 01:10:38 -0700
Subject: [ExI] didn't know he was at the party... was: RE: Wrath of the
 Old Ones
In-Reply-To: <01c501d08491$29413cd0$7bc3b670$@att.net>
References: <01c501d08491$29413cd0$7bc3b670$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAJX-7wXfOrRs9QjBEqSnrdB6i6mCdisafph1mM6MQ+jv3QZTyA@mail.gmail.com>

Spike, you brought (tender-yet-steely) tears to my ideas with that.

Party on! (And on and on and on)

--Max

On Fri, May 1, 2015 at 9:33 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *>?* *On Behalf Of *Rafal Smigrodzki
> *?*
>
> >?BTW, I just bought the complete works of HP Lovecraft, for mere $ 0.99.
> Hail Amazon!  Rafa?
>
>
>
>
>
> Rafal, your comment reminded me of an incident which has nothing to do
> with HP Lovecraft, but is relevant.
>
>
>
> A few years ago my brother organized a high school 30th reunion and
> someone suggested a special celebration for the band geeks over at a local
> park.  Some of the locals brought in Subway sandwiches, chips and sodas and
> such.  We had a grand time, and afterwards I made arrangements to do
> realtime text chat for those band members who couldn?t make the reunion.
> One of the band members who was a known party animal showed up and we got
> to discussing matters.  I said something about the band party, he
> commented, Oh, I am sorry I missed that.  I wrote back, Jeff? you were
> there; I have plenty of pictures.  He wrote: Wow, I must have really been
> drinking (etc.)  I wrote, No, we had it in the morning, you were sober and
> a Methodist deacon.  Everyone stopped writing for several minutes, a
> text-based embarrassed silence.  Then he said: Oooooh, OK, is that what
> that was?  You said party, I had envisioned something else entirely.  I
> went to several parties that day?
>
>
>
> There is a point to this story.  Our fellow band member was at the party
> and didn?t even know it.  He didn?t recognize that gathering as a party.
>
>
>
> Our world today is a riotous epic party, so many cool things going on.  If
> one is a science, engineering, technology or math geek, you don?t need to
> tell her she is at the greatest party in history; she knows.  This is such
> a time to be into astronomy; all the cool new instruments giving us new
> cosmic discoveries like crazy, the digital technology coming along getting
> better and better and better without end, the computers, the mathematical
> discoveries coming all the time, genomics, the new learning and teaching
> tools, the avalanche of material available cheap or free online such as
> Amazon?s e-books and such?
>
>
>
> It is too numerous to even list it all.  Far too many people in our world
> today are at the party but do not recognize it as a party.  I consider us
> the lucky ones, for we are right in the middle of the party, and we know
> where we are.
>
>
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 

Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
http://www.amazon.com/Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-Technology-Philosophy/dp/1118334310/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1372225570&sr=1-1&keywords=the+transhumanist+reader
President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sat May  2 15:24:46 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 2 May 2015 10:24:46 -0500
Subject: [ExI] The Anti-Flynn
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFj0LoiK7rKHkZrPuiVJTL38n0pK=8KpxVhybzFiTFExAA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFirYp_5KFcxJYqhBTudfxkNgB7spiEp3ECC3a9GfCZhng@mail.gmail.com>
 <4128968D-0A89-4114-9CE1-FE0DDC84FF00@taramayastales.com>
 <CAAc1gFj0LoiK7rKHkZrPuiVJTL38n0pK=8KpxVhybzFiTFExAA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYacKQ0mhVyj+TRZytADXbWS6sXNiFZi8EhwXEd4RxRsA@mail.gmail.com>

Well, there are numbers, and then again, there are numbers.

A correlation of .71 is indeed high for social sciences, but it still
represents only about 50% shared variance.

The percentage of mentally retarded people in the US is roughly from 2.5 to
around 7.  The cutoff is an IQ of 70.  There will be very few in this range
who can learn to read, so the actual literacy rate is not 99% but closer to
95%.  One source I found said that the literacy rate was 100% for some
countries - very obviously a political statement, not a scientific one.

?bill w?


On Fri, May 1, 2015 at 10:50 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:

>
>
> On Tue, Apr 28, 2015 at 7:53 PM, Tara Maya <tara at taramayastales.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Nah, I don?t buy it. Too many holes in this methodology.
>>
>> One tests measures household vocabulary of American families from 1974.
>> How does this test take into account immigrant families and people for whom
>> English is not a first language? I saw nothing about that, and it seems to
>> me that the immigration issue alone makes any measure of genetic evolution
>> in America problematic? if not, in fact, worthless.
>>
>
> ### Why do you think immigration makes WORDSUM worthless? Can you quantify
> the impact of variability in immigration levels on WORDSUM scores, and say
> whether this impact may produce a spurious signal in the article, or in
> fact hide a stronger real relationship?
>
> You may want to look at the prevalence of immigrants among the US
> population over time. Also, the time span in question is not 1974 onwards,
> this is just the sample used for calibration of the item difficulty in
> WORDSUM. The secular trend is analyzed from 1850 onwards, in texts produced
> predominantly by native US English speakers, therefore largely insulated
> from the vagaries of immigration.
>
> --------------
>
>>
>> Another test uses text vocabulary words from 1500 to now. The number of
>> people producing those vocabulary-rich texts was an incredibly smaller
>> percentage of the overall population. So it?s like comparing texts produced
>> by only the top 1% to texts produced by the top 80% of the bell curve and
>> then noting that IQ seems to have gone down. In fact, as education expands
>> and the literate population expands as well, the lowering of text
>> difficulty is what we would expect to see.
>>
>
> ### The article does not look at vocabulary from 1500 onwards but, as
> mentioned above, the Google Ngram was used from 1850 to 2005. The level of
> illiteracy in the US has not massively changed since 1850 - it dropped from
> about 20 to about 0.5% so this confounder does not have the magnitude to
> significantly change the results. Furthermore, your objection would only be
> valid if the increase in literacy over this time stemmed from reaching out
> to the the least intelligent 20%. However, it is reasonable to think that
> the spread of literacy was caused at least in large part by reaching the
> most remote or neglected sections of the population, who should not
> significantly differ in IQ from the general population, therefore their
> impact on the Ngram test should be neutral.
>
> The reference to older texts is only to adjust the sigma parameter for
> word age.
> ---------------
>
>>
>> (There?s another fallacy here, and that is that difficult words prove the
>> writer is more intelligent. Having been forced to endure a post-modernist
>> education, whose proponents believe in the same theory, I can assure you
>> that often multisyllabic gobbdygook exhibits far less intelligence than
>> clear, direct writing using simple and direct sentences with concrete nouns
>> and verbs.)
>>
>
> ### WORDSUM is a good proxy for a full IQ test, with a correlation of
> 0.71, which in social science is as good as it gets.
>
>  ---------------------
>
>>
>> But the biggest problem with the Dysgenic crowd, in my opinion, is that
>> they misunderstand the Demographic Revolution. They think that because the
>> most educated, prosperous and (presumably) intelligent men and women
>> entered the Demographic Revolution first, this meant they were suddenly
>> losing the evolutionary race, when just the opposite was true.
>>
>
> ### The cause of the demographic transition is still not entirely known.
> The expectation of a dysgenic trend is however not dependent on the cause
> of transition but rather on the verifiable negative correlation between IQ
> and fitness since about 1850.
> ------------------
>
>
>> It would be like contemporary social scientists of the Agricultural
>> Revolution wringing their hands because all  the most educated, prosperous
>> and intelligent men and women of their time were no longer spending as much
>> time hunting and gathering as the dullards? completely missing the fact
>> that the reason is because the smartest members of society are the first of
>> the bell curve to have taken up sowing and reaping instead.
>>
>
> ### Don't understand this.
>
> Rafal
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From ipbrians at simplyweb.net  Sat May  2 14:29:17 2015
From: ipbrians at simplyweb.net (Ivor Peter Brians)
Date: Sat, 2 May 2015 07:29:17 -0700
Subject: [ExI] New Subscriber Introduction
Message-ID: <A7965AA4-82BD-4F0B-B24C-92044E3F3204@simplyweb.net>


Funny story for you Ivor:

On the ExI group, I keep in mind a vague idea of who are our hipsters in what areas.  I know if I have any question on medical stuff, we have Dr. Smigrodzki, for data security, Harvey Newstrom, for pretty much anything you want to know, we have the omni-hipster Anders Sandberg who either knows the answer or knows the cat who knows the answer.

When I saw your email @ ipbrians I read it as ipbrains, and immediately concluded OK cool now if I have any intellectual property questions...


I hope I'm doing the reply correctly and if not, someone please correct me.

When I read "funny story" as related to my email address I immediately interpreted the "I P Brains" differently and thought of a urologist with some sort of neural breakdown disorder. 

I'm afraid that I do not have a professional specialty in a field that would relate to most of the subject matter here (unless somehow the subject of classic cars comes up).

Ivor



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sat May  2 16:00:38 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 2 May 2015 11:00:38 -0500
Subject: [ExI] didn't know he was at the party... was: RE: Wrath of the
 Old Ones
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wXfOrRs9QjBEqSnrdB6i6mCdisafph1mM6MQ+jv3QZTyA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <01c501d08491$29413cd0$7bc3b670$@att.net>
 <CAJX-7wXfOrRs9QjBEqSnrdB6i6mCdisafph1mM6MQ+jv3QZTyA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEb4UtL9LKEWZkeF59z34ctpD10gNXz=TbumX3rHFXo+tg@mail.gmail.com>

It is too numerous to even list it all.  Far too many people in our world
today are at the party but do not recognize it as a party.  I consider us
the lucky ones, for we are right in the middle of the party, and we know
where we are.


Access all the worlds' music and fiction and a lot more.  But who's not at
the party?


While discussing IQ with my undergrads I pointed out that IQ geniuses are
in every population.  Does that mean that somewhere in deepest Africa is a
pygmy with a bone through his nose who has an IQ of 190 and is potentially
the greatest mathematician since Fermat?  Yes it does.  Maybe there isn't,
but there could be.


So many geniuses throughout history had no opportunity to show their stuff,
and so many today as well, though arguably fewer never get to be heard.


I wish all the people of the future have the same privileges and advantages
that I do or at least the opportunity to have them.  Let's ALL party!


Bill W


On Sat, May 2, 2015 at 3:10 AM, Max More <max at maxmore.com> wrote:

> Spike, you brought (tender-yet-steely) tears to my ideas with that.
>
> Party on! (And on and on and on)
>
> --Max
>
> On Fri, May 1, 2015 at 9:33 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> *>?* *On Behalf Of *Rafal Smigrodzki
>> *?*
>>
>> >?BTW, I just bought the complete works of HP Lovecraft, for mere $
>> 0.99. Hail Amazon!  Rafa?
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Rafal, your comment reminded me of an incident which has nothing to do
>> with HP Lovecraft, but is relevant.
>>
>>
>>
>> A few years ago my brother organized a high school 30th reunion and
>> someone suggested a special celebration for the band geeks over at a local
>> park.  Some of the locals brought in Subway sandwiches, chips and sodas and
>> such.  We had a grand time, and afterwards I made arrangements to do
>> realtime text chat for those band members who couldn?t make the reunion.
>> One of the band members who was a known party animal showed up and we got
>> to discussing matters.  I said something about the band party, he
>> commented, Oh, I am sorry I missed that.  I wrote back, Jeff? you were
>> there; I have plenty of pictures.  He wrote: Wow, I must have really been
>> drinking (etc.)  I wrote, No, we had it in the morning, you were sober and
>> a Methodist deacon.  Everyone stopped writing for several minutes, a
>> text-based embarrassed silence.  Then he said: Oooooh, OK, is that what
>> that was?  You said party, I had envisioned something else entirely.  I
>> went to several parties that day?
>>
>>
>>
>> There is a point to this story.  Our fellow band member was at the party
>> and didn?t even know it.  He didn?t recognize that gathering as a party.
>>
>>
>>
>> Our world today is a riotous epic party, so many cool things going on.
>> If one is a science, engineering, technology or math geek, you don?t need
>> to tell her she is at the greatest party in history; she knows.  This is
>> such a time to be into astronomy; all the cool new instruments giving us
>> new cosmic discoveries like crazy, the digital technology coming along
>> getting better and better and better without end, the computers, the
>> mathematical discoveries coming all the time, genomics, the new learning
>> and teaching tools, the avalanche of material available cheap or free
>> online such as Amazon?s e-books and such?
>>
>>
>>
>> It is too numerous to even list it all.  Far too many people in our world
>> today are at the party but do not recognize it as a party.  I consider us
>> the lucky ones, for we are right in the middle of the party, and we know
>> where we are.
>>
>>
>>
>> spike
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>
>
> --
>
> Max More, PhD
> Strategic Philosopher
> Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
>
> http://www.amazon.com/Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-Technology-Philosophy/dp/1118334310/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1372225570&sr=1-1&keywords=the+transhumanist+reader
> President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From spike66 at att.net  Sat May  2 15:59:40 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 2 May 2015 08:59:40 -0700
Subject: [ExI] New Subscriber Introduction
In-Reply-To: <A7965AA4-82BD-4F0B-B24C-92044E3F3204@simplyweb.net>
References: <A7965AA4-82BD-4F0B-B24C-92044E3F3204@simplyweb.net>
Message-ID: <026401d084f1$02bbef00$0833cd00$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Ivor Peter Brians
...

>...When I read "funny story" as related to my email address I immediately
interpreted the "I P Brains" differently and thought of a urologist with
some sort of neural breakdown disorder. ...Ivor

_______________________________________________


Urologist with neural breakdown, no, I do confess that interpretation never
crossed my mind.  {8^D

spike



From anders at aleph.se  Sat May  2 16:00:44 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 2 May 2015 18:00:44 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Wrath of the Old Ones
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFgVngXQBEEM8AkrkMkGci8hVqEXGizbMn7zMmf1u3qXpA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <358005880-7012@secure.ericade.net>


Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> , 2/5/2015 6:08 AM:





On Wed, Apr 29, 2015 at 5:55 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:


Note that one can continue this chain, with a smarter exception handler for every level. The upper 1-2 levels would be the original Old Ones or their singleton. The smarter something is, the harder it is to ensure reliability and loyalty (unless we succeed with FAI very well), but it doesn't have to be used as much. I think it is likely the total amount of processing-hours performed on different levels declines exponentially with height in this model.


### Imagine being the apex of this pyramid of death-dealers: Spending millions of years in dreamless slumber, undying, only rising to the chant of "Anders fhtagn" , to preside over the destruction of the smartest exceptions, erasing their hopes of a day in the sun, over and over again.


We bow before Anders, who is become the destroyer of worlds :)


Hahahaha! Don't worry, I will carefully archive them. Somewhere in *that* MBrain... no, I mean the other one. Oh, so that is where I put the Virgo Cluster...








BTW, I just bought the complete works of HP Lovecraft, for mere $ 0.99. Hail Amazon!



I just went by HP Lovecraft Square ten minutes ago! There was a big sign for a blood drive there, which seems very fitting.?



Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From spike66 at att.net  Sat May  2 16:20:01 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 2 May 2015 09:20:01 -0700
Subject: [ExI] New Subscriber Introduction
In-Reply-To: <026401d084f1$02bbef00$0833cd00$@att.net>
References: <A7965AA4-82BD-4F0B-B24C-92044E3F3204@simplyweb.net>
 <026401d084f1$02bbef00$0833cd00$@att.net>
Message-ID: <026b01d084f3$da248450$8e6d8cf0$@att.net>



>>... On Behalf Of Ivor Peter Brians
...

>>...When I read "funny story" as related to my email address I 
>>immediately interpreted the "I P Brains" differently and thought of a
urologist with some sort of neural breakdown disorder. ...Ivor

_______________________________________________


Urologist with neural breakdown, no, I do confess that interpretation never
crossed my mind.  {8^D

spike

_______________________________________________


Ivor, mnemonics is a skill which establishes a name in the memory by
associating it with some absurd mental image; the more crazy or unlikely the
image, the more indelible is the memory.  It is a highly effective way to
remember forever ipbrians by associating it with a man pissing his brains
out, but perhaps you would have been ahead leaving it at Intellectual
Property Brains.  {8^D

Welcome Ivor.  You may post about classic cars if you wish.  ExI is
intentionally open-ended.  If no one responds, you know no one here is
interested in that.  Someone might respond offlist as well.  I had a Pinin
Farina La Forza until 4 yrs ago, not exactly a classic car but weird.

spike



From anders at aleph.se  Sat May  2 16:09:31 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 2 May 2015 18:09:31 +0200
Subject: [ExI] didn't know he was at the party...
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wXfOrRs9QjBEqSnrdB6i6mCdisafph1mM6MQ+jv3QZTyA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <358439994-2513@secure.ericade.net>

Yup. This is an awesome party!


I am sitting in the quad at Brown University right now. Cherry and magnolia blossoms are falling from the trees. Students are ?playing frisbee, reading and picnicking in the sunshine. A sparrow is loudly proclaiming his availability. Yesterday we made some headway on the ethics of AI - that conference was an AI sub-party. Tomorrow I will go to the effective altruism sub-party at Harvard. And meanwhile the giant party continues.


As Robin said, this is the Dreamtime. Let's make sure it lasts, includes even more minds, and become ever more glorious. Cheers!




Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From hibbert at mydruthers.com  Sat May  2 17:03:54 2015
From: hibbert at mydruthers.com (Chris Hibbert)
Date: Sat, 02 May 2015 10:03:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] (R)EVOLUTION is out on Kindle First
In-Reply-To: <mailman.1.1430568003.29160.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.1.1430568003.29160.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <5545037A.5090203@mydruthers.com>

> Now for some shameless self-promotion, finally...:-)
>
> My novel, (R)EVOLUTION, a near-term SF story about bioengineering,
> cognitive technologies, nanotech and the future of humanity, is the
> SF/thriller Kindle First pick for May in N. America and Australia/NZ
> through 47North/Amazon Publishing. Free for Prime members, $1.99 for Kindle
> First members. Think "Michael Crichton on acid..." Except not a
> technophobe. And someone who writes fleshed out characters.;-)
>
> US link:http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00OM9OKEC
> AUS link:http://www.amazon.com.au/R-evolution-PJ-Manney-ebook/dp/B00OM9OKEC
>
> It will come out in print and audiobook on June 1.
> http://www.amazon.com/dp/1477828494
>
> I hope you all enjoy them and if you do, please feel free to write a
> review. I'd really appreciate it. It's been a long time coming and I could
> never have done this without the incredible support of people in this
> community. Several of you are mentioned in the acknowledgments. Thank you
> so much!

I'm on the board of the Libertarian Futurist Society, which gives annual 
awards for the best libertarian science fiction (lfs.org/awards.shtml). 
I've already downloaded a free copy from Amazon Prime. Are there enough 
libertarian elements in the story that I should forward the link to the 
members of the nominating committee?

Chris



From rex at nosyntax.net  Sat May  2 17:15:16 2015
From: rex at nosyntax.net (rex)
Date: Sat, 2 May 2015 10:15:16 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The Anti-Flynn
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFj0LoiK7rKHkZrPuiVJTL38n0pK=8KpxVhybzFiTFExAA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAAc1gFirYp_5KFcxJYqhBTudfxkNgB7spiEp3ECC3a9GfCZhng@mail.gmail.com>
 <4128968D-0A89-4114-9CE1-FE0DDC84FF00@taramayastales.com>
 <CAAc1gFj0LoiK7rKHkZrPuiVJTL38n0pK=8KpxVhybzFiTFExAA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20150502171516.GA14916@nosyntax.net>

Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> [2015-05-01 20:52]:
>

>   ### The level of illiteracy in the US has not massively changed
>   since 1850 - it dropped from about 20 to about 0.5% so this
>   confounder does not have the magnitude to significantly change the
>   results.

Looking it from another POV, if the value of a variable increased by a factor
of 40, would you still claim it had not changed enough to significantly
change the results? 

>   However, it is reasonable to think that the spread of literacy was
>   caused at least in large part by reaching the most remote or
>   neglected sections of the population, who should not significantly
>   differ in IQ from the general population, therefore their impact
>   on the Ngram test should be neutral.  The reference to older
>   texts is only to adjust the sigma parameter for word age.

Why do you assume the remote and neglected groups do not differ in IQ?
The default assumption should be the opposite.

>   ### The cause of the demographic transition is still not entirely known.
>   The expectation of a dysgenic trend is however not dependent on the cause
>   of transition but rather on the verifiable negative correlation between IQ
>   and fitness since about 1850.

The high IQ fraction of the population has historically had a lower birth rate
than the lower IQ fraction, but it does not logically follow that there will
be a dysgenic trend. This rather astonishing result is established in the paper
referenced at the URL.

http://www.nosyntax.net/cfwiki/index.php/Differential_Breeding

Who would have guessed that it's possible for population IQ to
increase while the low IQ fraction breeds at a higher rate than the
high IQ fraction?

-rex
-- 
"Most people prefer to believe that their leaders are just and fair,                                           
even in the face of evidence to the contrary, because once a citizen                                           
acknowledges that the government under which he lives is lying and                                             
corrupt, the citizen has to choose what he or she will do about it. To                                         
take action in the face of corrupt government entails risks of harm to                                         
life and loved ones. To choose to do nothing is to surrender one's                                             
self-image of standing for principles. Most people do not have the                                             
courage to face that choice. Hence, most propaganda is not designed to                                         
fool the critical thinker but only to give moral cowards an excuse not                                         
to think at all." -- Michael Rivero 


From jasonresch at gmail.com  Sat May  2 16:31:59 2015
From: jasonresch at gmail.com (Jason Resch)
Date: Sat, 2 May 2015 11:31:59 -0500
Subject: [ExI] New Subscriber Introduction
In-Reply-To: <A7965AA4-82BD-4F0B-B24C-92044E3F3204@simplyweb.net>
References: <A7965AA4-82BD-4F0B-B24C-92044E3F3204@simplyweb.net>
Message-ID: <CA+BCJUjo6KMOLGaBMC6KUoGoCjvm1Z6hxBb3n3RtFJE_3FK32A@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, May 2, 2015 at 9:29 AM, Ivor Peter Brians <ipbrians at simplyweb.net>
wrote:

>
> Funny story for you Ivor:
>
> On the ExI group, I keep in mind a vague idea of who are our hipsters in
> what areas.  I know if I have any question on medical stuff, we have Dr.
> Smigrodzki, for data security, Harvey Newstrom, for pretty much anything
> you want to know, we have the omni-hipster Anders Sandberg who either knows
> the answer or knows the cat who knows the answer.
>
> When I saw your email @ ipbrians I read it as ipbrains, and immediately
> concluded OK cool now if I have any intellectual property questions...
>
>
> I hope I'm doing the reply correctly and if not, someone please correct me.
>
> When I read "funny story" as related to my email address I immediately
> interpreted the "I P Brains" differently and thought of a urologist with
> some sort of neural breakdown disorder.
>
> I'm afraid that I do not have a professional specialty in a field that
> would relate to most of the subject matter here (unless somehow the subject
> of classic cars comes up).
>
>
The brain is roughly 85% water by weight, and half the water in our bodies
is replaced every 8 days. So after a month or two, all of us have quite
literally replaced practically all the water in our brains. Where did the
old brain go? Indeed we peed out most of it.

Jason
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From anders at aleph.se  Sun May  3 00:21:29 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 3 May 2015 02:21:29 +0200
Subject: [ExI] New Subscriber Introduction
In-Reply-To: <CA+BCJUjo6KMOLGaBMC6KUoGoCjvm1Z6hxBb3n3RtFJE_3FK32A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <388377268-29448@secure.ericade.net>


Jason Resch <jasonresch at gmail.com> , 3/5/2015 1:20 AM:



The brain is roughly 85% water by weight, and half the water in our bodies is replaced every 8 days. So after a month or two, all of us have quite literally replaced practically all the water in our brains. Where did the old brain go? Indeed we peed out most of it.





Simultaneously disturbing and exhilarating! We are processes, not things.?

Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From spike66 at att.net  Sun May  3 00:35:28 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 2 May 2015 17:35:28 -0700
Subject: [ExI] New Subscriber Introduction
In-Reply-To: <388377268-29448@secure.ericade.net>
References: <CA+BCJUjo6KMOLGaBMC6KUoGoCjvm1Z6hxBb3n3RtFJE_3FK32A@mail.gmail.com>
 <388377268-29448@secure.ericade.net>
Message-ID: <01c101d08539$0fc47df0$2f4d79d0$@att.net>

 

 

>? On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Subject: Re: [ExI] New Subscriber Introduction

 

Jason Resch <jasonresch at gmail.com> , 3/5/2015 1:20 AM:

>?The brain is roughly 85% water by weight, and half the water in our bodies is replaced every 8 days. So after a month or two, all of us have quite literally replaced practically all the water in our brains. Where did the old brain go? Indeed we peed out most of it?

 

That is a most unique take on it.  {8-]

 

Reminder: Ivor, you were the one who started us down this road.  {8^D

 

>?Simultaneously disturbing and exhilarating! We are processes, not things. ?Anders Sandberg?

 

 

Whenever I see comments like that one, I immediately become soft wary.

 

spike

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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Sun May  3 05:37:51 2015
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Sun, 3 May 2015 01:37:51 -0400
Subject: [ExI] didn't know he was at the party... was: RE: Wrath of the
 Old Ones
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEb4UtL9LKEWZkeF59z34ctpD10gNXz=TbumX3rHFXo+tg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <01c501d08491$29413cd0$7bc3b670$@att.net>
 <CAJX-7wXfOrRs9QjBEqSnrdB6i6mCdisafph1mM6MQ+jv3QZTyA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEb4UtL9LKEWZkeF59z34ctpD10gNXz=TbumX3rHFXo+tg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFj9P0ntZE_qUQ4XS92o1ikbyKQjNWfd9g5i5bgcyqBd5w@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, May 2, 2015 at 12:00 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:
>
> While discussing IQ with my undergrads I pointed out that IQ geniuses are
> in every population.  Does that mean that somewhere in deepest Africa is a
> pygmy with a bone through his nose who has an IQ of 190 and is potentially
> the greatest mathematician since Fermat?  Yes it does.  Maybe there isn't,
> but there could be.
>

### Highly unlikely. The IQ of pygmies is estimated at 53. I don't know the
standard deviation of IQ among pygmies but if it was the same as among
normal populations, an IQ of 190 would be more than 9 sigma above their
average. I tried to use a couple of online normal distribution calculators
but none were designed to go so far off the mean and all of them gave 0 as
answer. As an example, an 8 sigma outlier is found with a probability of
4x10e-13.

Considering that the number of pygmies is less than a million, we can be
expect with a likelihood of > 1-((4x10e-13)/1000000)= 0.9999996 that there
are no pygmies with an IQ of 190 or higher.

Of course, this is a silly calculation - IQ tests are not properly normed
for outlier populations, both far below and far above the average, so the
true likelihood of extreme genius among pygmies is unknown but certainly
very low.

Rafa?
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun May  3 15:17:48 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 3 May 2015 10:17:48 -0500
Subject: [ExI] didn't know he was at the party... was: RE: Wrath of the
 Old Ones
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFj9P0ntZE_qUQ4XS92o1ikbyKQjNWfd9g5i5bgcyqBd5w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <01c501d08491$29413cd0$7bc3b670$@att.net>
 <CAJX-7wXfOrRs9QjBEqSnrdB6i6mCdisafph1mM6MQ+jv3QZTyA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEb4UtL9LKEWZkeF59z34ctpD10gNXz=TbumX3rHFXo+tg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj9P0ntZE_qUQ4XS92o1ikbyKQjNWfd9g5i5bgcyqBd5w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZNqWo87J5qHJ1bKefmpQuOdTybR0Kyfni23K3TxhY8mA@mail.gmail.com>

Well now, here's a thing:  I read awhile back that the genetic diversity
was far greater in African villages than it was in the entire USA.  I don't
know how to interpret that, but clearly the genes are there for all kinds
of diversity including intellectual.

As you point out, tests for people who have little to do with modern
society are highly suspect at best.  I did see some data where only
nonverbal tests were used in Africa (not specifically with pygmies) that
showed that the nonverbal skills were comparable with ours.

Also, you can't compare African data with USA Afro-American data.  There
are many reasons given for the white-black IQ discrepancy here and I think
it's just not known what factors are responsible.  The liberals will put it
down to environment and the conservatives to nature.

Wackiest theory:  the Afros who were picked up by the black and white
traders were below average to begin with.

Bill W

On Sun, May 3, 2015 at 12:37 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:

>
>
> On Sat, May 2, 2015 at 12:00 PM, William Flynn Wallace <
> foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> While discussing IQ with my undergrads I pointed out that IQ geniuses are
>> in every population.  Does that mean that somewhere in deepest Africa is a
>> pygmy with a bone through his nose who has an IQ of 190 and is potentially
>> the greatest mathematician since Fermat?  Yes it does.  Maybe there isn't,
>> but there could be.
>>
>
> ### Highly unlikely. The IQ of pygmies is estimated at 53. I don't know
> the standard deviation of IQ among pygmies but if it was the same as among
> normal populations, an IQ of 190 would be more than 9 sigma above their
> average. I tried to use a couple of online normal distribution calculators
> but none were designed to go so far off the mean and all of them gave 0 as
> answer. As an example, an 8 sigma outlier is found with a probability of
> 4x10e-13.
>
> Considering that the number of pygmies is less than a million, we can be
> expect with a likelihood of > 1-((4x10e-13)/1000000)= 0.9999996 that there
> are no pygmies with an IQ of 190 or higher.
>
> Of course, this is a silly calculation - IQ tests are not properly normed
> for outlier populations, both far below and far above the average, so the
> true likelihood of extreme genius among pygmies is unknown but certainly
> very low.
>
> Rafa?
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From ipbrians at simplyweb.net  Sun May  3 17:15:44 2015
From: ipbrians at simplyweb.net (Ivor Peter Brians)
Date: Sun, 3 May 2015 10:15:44 -0700
Subject: [ExI] didn't know he was at the party... was: RE: Wrath of the
	Old Ones
Message-ID: <000001d085c4$cc05c9c0$64115d40$@net>

So many geniuses throughout history had no opportunity to show their stuff,

and so many today as well, though arguably fewer never get to be heard.

 

I wish all the people of the future have the same privileges and advantages

that I do or at least the opportunity to have them.  Let's ALL party!

 

Bill W

 

What resonates with me is what I believe was Bill W's main point as stated
above. The practice of subjugating a group is not only harmful for members
of that group but all of society.

 

In the sci-fi book I am working on a sage tells a story to a young charge.
In the story a civilization on a faraway planet had squandered a natural
resource and perished when their aging star made life uninhabitable. It
takes the student a long time to guess what that resource was. It turns out
that this most valuable resource was the civilization's own people. By
marginalizing certain groups, society did not gain the benefit of all of the
civilization's geniuses. If all of their geniuses and other talented folks
had been allowed to blossom over millions of years they would have developed
the technology to leave their aging solar system.

 

Ivor



---
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
http://www.avast.com
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From tara at taramayastales.com  Sun May  3 18:57:43 2015
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Sun, 3 May 2015 11:57:43 -0700
Subject: [ExI] didn't know he was at the party... was: RE: Wrath of the
	Old Ones
In-Reply-To: <000001d085c4$cc05c9c0$64115d40$@net>
References: <000001d085c4$cc05c9c0$64115d40$@net>
Message-ID: <3F15DF47-FEA4-47E1-BF52-780C3B64F4E3@taramayastales.com>

That?s a great theme, Ivor. 

This is also what goes through my head whenever people rant about there being too many human beings on the planet because our resources are running out. Human beings are our most important resource. 


Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



> On May 3, 2015, at 10:15 AM, Ivor Peter Brians <ipbrians at simplyweb.net> wrote:
> 
> What resonates with me is what I believe was Bill W?s main point as stated above. The practice of subjugating a group is not only harmful for members of that group but all of society.
>  
> In the sci-fi book I am working on a sage tells a story to a young charge. In the story a civilization on a faraway planet had squandered a natural resource and perished when their aging star made life uninhabitable. It takes the student a long time to guess what that resource was. It turns out that this most valuable resource was the civilization?s own people. By marginalizing certain groups, society did not gain the benefit of all of the civilization?s geniuses. If all of their geniuses and other talented folks had been allowed to blossom over millions of years they would have developed the technology to leave their aging solar system.
>  
> Ivor

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon May  4 00:43:58 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 3 May 2015 19:43:58 -0500
Subject: [ExI] didn't know he was at the party... was: RE: Wrath of the
 Old Ones
In-Reply-To: <3F15DF47-FEA4-47E1-BF52-780C3B64F4E3@taramayastales.com>
References: <000001d085c4$cc05c9c0$64115d40$@net>
 <3F15DF47-FEA4-47E1-BF52-780C3B64F4E3@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYOKks3L1sfrgTmSTk9kKVGXWySZT8u97s+7nfuA-Go+Q@mail.gmail.com>

Speaking of not using the intelligence of your population, how about the
Muslims, who deny so many roles to their women?  As we all know, in the
good ol USA we have used women for a long time.  Even the grossly underpaid
secretaries functioned more as office managers and many offices could not
run without them.

I have read that the backwardness of Muslim society can be attributed to in
part by the lack of inclusion of women in their society.  I just have to
wonder if they are basically afraid of women.  Afraid that some women will
be better than the men are.  I don't know much about Muslims, so maybe
another member can fill us in here.  I don't want to make any prejudicial
statements.  Maybe they are limited by what the Koran says.  bill w

On Sun, May 3, 2015 at 1:57 PM, Tara Maya <tara at taramayastales.com> wrote:

> That?s a great theme, Ivor.
>
> This is also what goes through my head whenever people rant about there
> being too many human beings on the planet because our resources are running
> out. Human beings are our most important resource.
>
>
> Tara Maya
> Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter
> <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook
> <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |
>  Amazon
> <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |
>  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>
>
>
>
> On May 3, 2015, at 10:15 AM, Ivor Peter Brians <ipbrians at simplyweb.net>
> wrote:
>
> What resonates with me is what I believe was Bill W?s main point as stated
> above. The practice of subjugating a group is not only harmful for members
> of that group but all of society.
>
> In the sci-fi book I am working on a sage tells a story to a young charge.
> In the story a civilization on a faraway planet had squandered a natural
> resource and perished when their aging star made life uninhabitable. It
> takes the student a long time to guess what that resource was. It turns out
> that this most valuable resource was the civilization?s own people. By
> marginalizing certain groups, society did not gain the benefit of all of
> the civilization?s geniuses. If all of their geniuses and other talented
> folks had been allowed to blossom over millions of years they would have
> developed the technology to leave their aging solar system.
>
> Ivor
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Mon May  4 01:44:16 2015
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Sun, 3 May 2015 21:44:16 -0400
Subject: [ExI] didn't know he was at the party... was: RE: Wrath of the
 Old Ones
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZNqWo87J5qHJ1bKefmpQuOdTybR0Kyfni23K3TxhY8mA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <01c501d08491$29413cd0$7bc3b670$@att.net>
 <CAJX-7wXfOrRs9QjBEqSnrdB6i6mCdisafph1mM6MQ+jv3QZTyA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEb4UtL9LKEWZkeF59z34ctpD10gNXz=TbumX3rHFXo+tg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj9P0ntZE_qUQ4XS92o1ikbyKQjNWfd9g5i5bgcyqBd5w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEZNqWo87J5qHJ1bKefmpQuOdTybR0Kyfni23K3TxhY8mA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFisjP7ENJ9HcPdQ+U4ocjU2xUnb3EDiH6e=VQE9t7oBHw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, May 3, 2015 at 11:17 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Well now, here's a thing:  I read awhile back that the genetic diversity
> was far greater in African villages than it was in the entire USA.  I don't
> know how to interpret that, but clearly the genes are there for all kinds
> of diversity including intellectual.
>

### That does not seem to be the case. Standard deviations of IQ among
Africans are not grossly different from other groups.

------------------

>
> As you point out, tests for people who have little to do with modern
> society are highly suspect at best.  I did see some data where only
> nonverbal tests were used in Africa (not specifically with pygmies) that
> showed that the nonverbal skills were comparable with ours.
>

### IQ tests are valid predictors of academic achievement (for which they
were invented) among all major groups tested. Nonverbal tests such as
progressive matrices do not show scores comparable with ours among black
Africans (ranging from 60s' to 80s, among dozens of studies), although
overall they tend to have a lower g-loading if used among Africans than
among whites (0.55 vs 0.8).
-----------------

>
> Also, you can't compare African data with USA Afro-American data.  There
> are many reasons given for the white-black IQ discrepancy here and I think
> it's just not known what factors are responsible.  The liberals will put it
> down to environment and the conservatives to nature.
>

### Yes, you can compare the data and IQ among black Americans is on
average higher than among African blacks (85 vs 70's).
 ------------

>
> Wackiest theory:  the Afros who were picked up by the black and white
> traders were below average to begin with.
>

### You would need to explain why American blacks have now higher scores
than African blacks.

Rafa?
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Mon May  4 02:38:43 2015
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan)
Date: Sun, 3 May 2015 19:38:43 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Asteroid value ranking
References: <8544D8E5-80AB-4F9D-AEAC-DCFE0545CF89@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5D7DC516-7133-45B5-9D9D-97518D3AB9E5@gmail.com>

http://www.asterank.com

Of course, it's guesswork. Bringing back a million tonnes of, say, gold would do what to the price of gold in Earth? (Of course, presuming demand doesn't rise so high to stabilize it at the current price. I do think a larger supply of gold (or cobalt or whatever) would stimulate more and further uses.)

Regards, 


Dan
 Sample my Kindle books via:
http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/
> 
> __,_._,___
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From spike66 at att.net  Mon May  4 04:37:15 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 3 May 2015 21:37:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] evolution of ethics,
	was ...didn't know he was at the party... was: RE: Wrath of the Old
	Ones
Message-ID: <00cc01d08624$02e633d0$08b29b70$@att.net>

 

 

>? On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace
Subject: Re: [ExI] didn't know he was at the party... was: RE: Wrath of the Old Ones

 

>?Speaking of not using the intelligence of your population, how about the Muslims, who deny so many roles to their women?  As we all know, in the good ol USA we have used women for a long time.  Even the grossly underpaid secretaries functioned more as office managers and many offices could not run without them.

>?I have read that the backwardness of Muslim society can be attributed to in part by the lack of inclusion of women in their society.  I just have to wonder if they are basically afraid of women.  Afraid that some women will be better than the men are.  I don't know much about Muslims, so maybe another member can fill us in here.  I don't want to make any prejudicial statements.  Maybe they are limited by what the Koran says.  bill w

 

 

Any society which collectively decides the ancient ones knew best will have the kinds of trouble you reference.

 

At some point after science and technology came along, any society should have collectively concluded that it needed a completely new basis for morality and ethics.  It must throw out the ancient texts, every word of it, and start fresh with a clean sheet of paper, to form a completely new basis for behavior based on new, science-compatible notions.  The Extropian Principles and the more recent Proactionary Principle would be good examples of that.

 

http://www.extropy.org/proactionaryprinciple.htm

 

Conservative societies fear throwing out everything and starting fresh, but I can assure them, many notions survive such as the golden rule.  

 

We must recognize that even the golden rule sometimes lets us down.  BillW, you know of an area which is full of cases where I myself have and regularly do violate the golden rule: genetics.  One sends away a spit sample and a 100 bucks, a few weeks later one is given a list of a few thousand people who are your genetic relatives who have also done the test.  The list is sorted by closest first.

 

OK cool!  Most of the time cool.  But what if? you discover your second cousin is not genetically related to your shared great grandparents?  What if your second cousin doesn?t know how to meta-interpret DNA results, but you do, so you know and he doesn?t.  What do you do?  If I follow the golden rule, it is easy: I am a ravenous infovore, a pacman for information; I want to know everything, even the negative.  If I have genetic disease which will kill me soon, I want to know.  So if I treat my own second cousin the way I would be treated, I would tell.  But I am not everyone.  If my father is illegitimate, I want to know that.  But I am not everyone.  

 

So? I decided to violate the golden rule and not tell my own second cousin that either he, his father or his grandfather are illegitimate.  He apparently thinks I or my mother are the illegitimates (if he knows, he also chose to not mention that to me) but I have developed some advanced techniques which let me prove that the illegitimacy is on his side.  So? I chose to not tell.  

 

What would you do?  I violated the golden rule and chose to let him continue to think whatever brings him comfort.

 

Any of the rest of you who do DNA tests, be ready for this one.  

 

Suggestions please, anyone?   Anders wan Kenobi, Max, Natasha, any other ethics hipsters, what do I do now, coach?  

 

spike

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From rex at nosyntax.net  Mon May  4 08:46:47 2015
From: rex at nosyntax.net (rex)
Date: Mon, 4 May 2015 01:46:47 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The Anti-Flynn
In-Reply-To: <20150502171516.GA14916@nosyntax.net>
References: <CAAc1gFirYp_5KFcxJYqhBTudfxkNgB7spiEp3ECC3a9GfCZhng@mail.gmail.com>
 <4128968D-0A89-4114-9CE1-FE0DDC84FF00@taramayastales.com>
 <CAAc1gFj0LoiK7rKHkZrPuiVJTL38n0pK=8KpxVhybzFiTFExAA@mail.gmail.com>
 <20150502171516.GA14916@nosyntax.net>
Message-ID: <20150504084647.GA20999@nosyntax.net>

rex <rex at nosyntax.net> [2015-05-02 10:35]:
>Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> [2015-05-01 20:52]:
>>  ### The cause of the demographic transition is still not entirely known.
>>  The expectation of a dysgenic trend is however not dependent on the cause
>>  of transition but rather on the verifiable negative correlation between IQ
>>  and fitness since about 1850.
>
>The high IQ fraction of the population has historically had a lower birth rate
>than the lower IQ fraction, but it does not logically follow that there will
>be a dysgenic trend. This rather astonishing result is established in the paper
>referenced at the URL.
>
>http://www.nosyntax.net/cfwiki/index.php/Differential_Breeding
>
>Who would have guessed that it's possible for population IQ to
>increase while the low IQ fraction breeds at a higher rate than the
>high IQ fraction?

No one here finds a proof that population IQ may increase in spite
of the dull outbreeding the sharp worthy of comment? This result
seems patently impossible, but it's not.

-rex
-- 
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves
up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."    --Winston Churchill


From pjmanney at gmail.com  Mon May  4 15:53:16 2015
From: pjmanney at gmail.com (PJ Manney)
Date: Mon, 4 May 2015 08:53:16 -0700
Subject: [ExI] (R)EVOLUTION is out on Kindle First
In-Reply-To: <CAKTCJycDUGTh4KO2UVsue_1N97Df3Omki8B8cG76hif+SO7jrg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJrtBE1znLoU252gMx5hLxoLV3=TSUaCXtSPctjCz54qAye38w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJycDUGTh4KO2UVsue_1N97Df3Omki8B8cG76hif+SO7jrg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJrtBE1c=O_Ta6kiR56xM4TmypEgGMuJf5oqWsQbWcxO7Vh+wA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, May 1, 2015 at 9:55 AM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:

> WOW PJ, congratulations! Can't wait to read (R)EVOLUTION.
>
> On Fri, May 1, 2015 at 6:50 PM, PJ Manney <pjmanney at gmail.com> wrote:
> > Now for some shameless self-promotion, finally... :-)
>

Thanks, Giulio! :-)
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From pharos at gmail.com  Wed May  6 09:47:15 2015
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 6 May 2015 10:47:15 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Is Evolution more random mutation than adaptation?
Message-ID: <CAL_armj9qMJ3SSOyp=q0B0r1ygaFgbDTqn+tQeH+9_jR7i0VPg@mail.gmail.com>

A Surprise for Evolution in Giant Tree of Life
Researchers build the world's largest evolutionary tree and conclude
that species arise because of chance mutations -- not natural
selection.
By: Emily Singer  May 5, 2015

<https://www.quantamagazine.org/20150505-a-surprise-for-evolution-in-giant-tree-of-life/>

Quotes:
Honeycreepers, small birds inhabiting the Hawaiian Islands, have a
rich assortment of beak shapes. Some species have long, thin beaks
suited to plucking insects from leaves. Others possess thick beaks
good for cracking open tough seeds. According to the classic view of
evolution, natural selection drove the development of these different
species. Each variant adapted to suit a different ecological niche.
But Blair Hedges, a biologist at Temple University in Philadelphia,
has proposed a provocative alternative: Adaptation had little to do
with it. It was simply a matter of chance and time.

Hedges contends that speciation and adaptation are two distinct
processes, each proceeding along its own path. (A team led by Mark
Pagel, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Reading in
England, has made a similar proposal, though for different reasons.)
According to Hedges' model, after about 2 million years the two groups
of birds accrued so many random genetic differences that they became
incompatible. It wasn't adaptive mutations that made it impossible for
the birds to intermingle, but rather the accumulation of enough
mutations overall, most of them neutral ones. Geographic isolation
provided the necessary spark for speciation, but simple time drove the
process to its conclusion.
--------


Needless to say, this proposal has caused much controversy and discussion.  ;)

But just looking at the design of the human body, it is very difficult
to believe that every function is the result of adaptation producing
the best of all possible worlds. More like random kludges that were
'good enough'. That's why transhumanists can see so many ways that the
human design can be improved.


BillK


From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Wed May  6 16:14:05 2015
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 6 May 2015 10:14:05 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The Anti-Flynn
In-Reply-To: <20150504084647.GA20999@nosyntax.net>
References: <CAAc1gFirYp_5KFcxJYqhBTudfxkNgB7spiEp3ECC3a9GfCZhng@mail.gmail.com>
 <4128968D-0A89-4114-9CE1-FE0DDC84FF00@taramayastales.com>
 <CAAc1gFj0LoiK7rKHkZrPuiVJTL38n0pK=8KpxVhybzFiTFExAA@mail.gmail.com>
 <20150502171516.GA14916@nosyntax.net>
 <20150504084647.GA20999@nosyntax.net>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwY+=hPfRdFOa1XSxfPNmJtO+i3Z8VQgUjTgcKkhTCiHxw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, May 4, 2015 at 2:46 AM, rex <rex at nosyntax.net> wrote:

> rex <rex at nosyntax.net> [2015-05-02 10:35]:
>
>> Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> [2015-05-01 20:52]:
>>
>>>  ### The cause of the demographic transition is still not entirely known.
>>
>>

>
>>> No one here finds a proof that population IQ may increase in spite
> of the dull outbreeding the sharp worthy of comment? This result
> seems patently impossible, but it's not.


Just a note to anyone who might be studying this stuff... We are currently
in a new era of very high LEGAL immigration. The Illegal immigrants get all
the press, but legal immigration rates have gone up a lot recently. I heard
the other day that the numbers have gone up since 2010 even, and that we
are now somewhat at par with the late 1800s immigration rates.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pdf/cspan_fb_slides.pdf

This has a huge impact, both positive and negative, depending on what
you're talking about.

-Kelly
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From kellycoinguy at gmail.com  Wed May  6 16:06:34 2015
From: kellycoinguy at gmail.com (Kelly Anderson)
Date: Wed, 6 May 2015 10:06:34 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Asteroid value ranking
In-Reply-To: <5D7DC516-7133-45B5-9D9D-97518D3AB9E5@gmail.com>
References: <8544D8E5-80AB-4F9D-AEAC-DCFE0545CF89@gmail.com>
 <5D7DC516-7133-45B5-9D9D-97518D3AB9E5@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPy8RwZ4MUgqBAiC3n5tKGnuCGwAb2bKtqNhM17NbQapSpVsjw@mail.gmail.com>

According to a very old National Geographic article I read on gold, it
makes a REALLY fine frying pan. Cooked eggs to perfection according to the
author. Gold is valuable not just as a store of value, but because it has
such interesting properties. The usefulness can only go up as
nanotechnology uses it to its fullest potential.

-Kelly

On Sun, May 3, 2015 at 8:38 PM, Dan <danust2012 at gmail.com> wrote:

> http://www.asterank.com
>
> Of course, it's guesswork. Bringing back a million tonnes of, say, gold
> would do what to the price of gold in Earth? (Of course, presuming demand
> doesn't rise so high to stabilize it at the current price. I do think a
> larger supply of gold (or cobalt or whatever) would stimulate more and
> further uses.)
>
> Regards,
>
> Dan
>  Sample my Kindle books via:
> http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/
>
>  __,_._,___
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Thu May  7 00:24:32 2015
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 6 May 2015 20:24:32 -0400
Subject: [ExI] The Anti-Flynn
In-Reply-To: <20150504084647.GA20999@nosyntax.net>
References: <CAAc1gFirYp_5KFcxJYqhBTudfxkNgB7spiEp3ECC3a9GfCZhng@mail.gmail.com>
 <4128968D-0A89-4114-9CE1-FE0DDC84FF00@taramayastales.com>
 <CAAc1gFj0LoiK7rKHkZrPuiVJTL38n0pK=8KpxVhybzFiTFExAA@mail.gmail.com>
 <20150502171516.GA14916@nosyntax.net>
 <20150504084647.GA20999@nosyntax.net>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFiborXv2EWOj=w+OX5GcOLsUV53pFixwtViNtfomaWXWw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, May 4, 2015 at 4:46 AM, rex <rex at nosyntax.net> wrote:

> rex <rex at nosyntax.net> [2015-05-02 10:35]:
>
>> Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> [2015-05-01 20:52]:
>>
>>>  ### The cause of the demographic transition is still not entirely known.
>>>  The expectation of a dysgenic trend is however not dependent on the
>>> cause
>>>  of transition but rather on the verifiable negative correlation between
>>> IQ
>>>  and fitness since about 1850.
>>>
>>
>> The high IQ fraction of the population has historically had a lower birth
>> rate
>> than the lower IQ fraction, but it does not logically follow that there
>> will
>> be a dysgenic trend. This rather astonishing result is established in the
>> paper
>> referenced at the URL.
>>
>> http://www.nosyntax.net/cfwiki/index.php/Differential_Breeding
>>
>> Who would have guessed that it's possible for population IQ to
>> increase while the low IQ fraction breeds at a higher rate than the
>> high IQ fraction?
>>
>
> No one here finds a proof that population IQ may increase in spite
> of the dull outbreeding the sharp worthy of comment? This result
> seems patently impossible, but it's not.


### I read the article in question and it seems to make an obvious point in
the detailed part, only to use it to make statements that could be easily
overinterpreted in the discussion.

Briefly, the article uses a modeling approach to predict IQ of a population
over generations based on matrices describing the IQ outcomes of mating
between persons of different levels of IQ (the M and H functions), while
varying the number of surviving offspring (R). And yes, if you make some
assumptions about M,H, and R, you can get an increase in the fraction of
smartest individuals even if R for the smartest pairings is below
replacement and below R for less smart pairings. Once you look at the
details it becomes intuitively obvious - if you construct M and H in such a
way as to keep numbers of moderately intelligent people high, while keeping
the R for the least intelligent sufficiently low, you will get a stable
source of highly intelligent people - the average and high-average feed the
smartest fraction indefinitely even if the smartest ones do not breed well
on their own.

Preston and Campbell make the Markov assumption - they eliminate analysis
of genotypes and model exclusively phenotypes. Of course, since there was
no information on IQ genotypes in 1993, and even now there is very little,
this simplification was inevitable.This may not necessarily invalidate
their reasoning, however, it does limit the realism of their model.

The problem with their work is that it can be overinterpreted. Preston and
Campbell set out to find an explanation of the discrepancy between observed
reduced fitness of the smartest humans and the Flynn effect. They took the
Flynn effect at face value, as evidence of a true increase in IQ. They
showed that you can theoretically have a situation where despite low
fitness of high-IQ humans you could have stable or increasing average
intelligence - however, they did not show that this situation obtains in
reality. In fact, there is only a limited subset of M, H and R function
values for which average IQ remains stable or increasing, and so far I have
not found any empirical research detecting such condition in present-day
societies.

As you may recall, this thread started with an article that provides a
different explanation for the fitness/Flynn discrepancy - stating that the
Flynn effect is a superficial improvement in some intellectual parameters
(captured by IQ tests) that occurs while intelligence follows a declining
course consistent with reduced fitness of high-IQ humans.

Of course, it would be nice if Preston and Campbell's model was correct
while Woodley et al. were wrong. But, P&C only show there is theoretical
wiggle room for high IQ, while Woodley shows more direct empirical data,
with what I see as plausible assumptions. Neither article provides any
decisive data or reasoning for one of the Flynn effect interpretations -
but Woodley is for me more convincing.

Rafa?
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Thu May  7 03:59:05 2015
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan)
Date: Wed, 6 May 2015 20:59:05 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Asteroid value ranking
In-Reply-To: <CAPy8RwZ4MUgqBAiC3n5tKGnuCGwAb2bKtqNhM17NbQapSpVsjw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <8544D8E5-80AB-4F9D-AEAC-DCFE0545CF89@gmail.com>
 <5D7DC516-7133-45B5-9D9D-97518D3AB9E5@gmail.com>
 <CAPy8RwZ4MUgqBAiC3n5tKGnuCGwAb2bKtqNhM17NbQapSpVsjw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <70192205-9F54-4398-A094-2BDCAF200A50@gmail.com>

> On May 6, 2015, at 9:06 AM, Kelly Anderson <kellycoinguy at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> According to a very old National Geographic article I read on gold, it makes a REALLY fine frying pan. Cooked eggs to perfection according to the author. Gold is valuable not just as a store of value, but because it has such interesting properties. The usefulness can only go up as nanotechnology uses it to its fullest potential.
> 
> -Kelly
> 
>> On Sun, May 3, 2015 at 8:38 PM, Dan <danust2012 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> http://www.asterank.com
>> 
>> Of course, it's guesswork. Bringing back a million tonnes of, say, gold would do what to the price of gold in Earth? (Of course, presuming demand doesn't rise so high to stabilize it at the current price. I do think a larger supply of gold (or cobalt or whatever) would stimulate more and further uses.)
>> 
>> Regards, 
>> 
>> 
>> Dan

Hence my parenthetic comment. Yes, more gold will almost certainly find more uses, but my guess is even with those, the price will still plummet. One can make a similar observation about computers. Early uses were constrained by high price and limited availability. But as the supply increased (or one could talk about the supply of computing power), even with this increased usage this didn't lead to computers staying at the same price.

By the way, gold is already (and has been) used as more than a store of value -- and I don't just mean to make baubles. It's already used in electronics, medicine, dentistry, and certain other applications. 

Regards,

Dan
 Sample my Kindle books via:
http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Thu May  7 16:30:59 2015
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Thu, 7 May 2015 09:30:59 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Asteroid value ranking
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB7FROSMJ_uiTDmhXcjWHgcYftuEySYhwtHy6cXeAuWE1g@mail.gmail.com>

snip

I think I have mentioned this before, but it's just been updated.

http://htyp.org/Mining_Asteroids

There has been rapid progress recently on power satellites.  We have 7
minutes of animation on hauling the parts out to GEO and constructing
a power satellite designed to sell power for less than the cost of
electricity from coal.  It will be released after the ISDC meeting in
Toronto.

http://www.exoplatz.org/Space_Based_Solar_Power is a work in progress.

Keith


From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu  Thu May  7 11:09:17 2015
From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera)
Date: Thu, 7 May 2015 07:09:17 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Is Evolution more random mutation than adaptation?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armj9qMJ3SSOyp=q0B0r1ygaFgbDTqn+tQeH+9_jR7i0VPg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armj9qMJ3SSOyp=q0B0r1ygaFgbDTqn+tQeH+9_jR7i0VPg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <31395E59-0323-4CE3-8B60-31CF43B29796@alumni.virginia.edu>


On May 6, 2015, at 5:47 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> A Surprise for Evolution in Giant Tree of Life
> Researchers build the world's largest evolutionary tree and conclude
> that species arise because of chance mutations -- not natural
> selection.
> 
I thought all evolutionary biologists already knew and accepted that speciation is a consequence of random mutation. It's survival of the species within an environmental context that shows natural selection at work. And I'm pretty sure I recall that Darwin said as much in the Origin of Species. Sounds like creationists may have confused people about this (even biologists?) due to their misunderstanding/misrepresenting of Darwin. 
-Henry


From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Fri May  8 06:57:29 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Thu, 7 May 2015 23:57:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Fermi Paradox animated short
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy3cP1K+eUuNcNnXcXh1AuS75XQkFkSO-kHez2WM0moBBw@mail.gmail.com>

"The Great Silence is a vexing problem we all love to speculate and argue
about, but it?s not the most intuitive concept. This wonderful animated
video by Kurz Gesagt
<https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsXVk37bltHxD1rDPwtNM8Q> explains the
problem that is the Fermi Paradox and why our apparent isolation in the
galaxy is so damned weird."


http://io9.com/this-animated-explanation-of-the-fermi-paradox-is-fanta-1702738783


John  :  )
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Fri May  8 07:05:30 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 00:05:30 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Nick Bostrom in the news
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy2n8+aFzZVQDDYeeNupd3UD5YzY7mQozY=6q8kXNPdHbQ@mail.gmail.com>

?I think I have a more balanced view, I think that both outcomes are on the
table, the extremely good and the extremely bad,? he says.

?But it makes sense to focus a lot on the possible downsides to see the
work that we need to put in ? that we haven?t been doing to date ? to make
sure that we don?t fall through any trapdoors. But I think that there?s a
good chance we can get, if we get our act together, a really utopian
future.?

In fact, Bostrom?s book isn?t a cut-and-dried analysis of how any machine
intelligence would likely be an evil megabot intent on wiping out the human
race. Much of the book focusses on how easy it would be for a machine
intelligence to believe itself to be happily helping the human race by
accomplishing the goal set out for it, but actually end up destroying us
all in a problem he calls ?perverse instantiation?.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/05/03/ai_expert_nick_bostrom_talks_to_el_reg/


John  :  )
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Fri May  8 07:12:35 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 00:12:35 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Science fiction artwork by Simon Stalenghag
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy1Q4rkcT95xk53KZm564s5zj6b4B7H+rTMU3TatMn8U3Q@mail.gmail.com>

I love the eerie mixing of our world and the machines that will exist in
coming decades...

The robot streetpunk is very disturbing...

http://www.simonstalenhag.se/


John  :  )
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Fri May  8 07:16:32 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 00:16:32 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Giant planet found orbiting tiny star, scientists puzzled
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy1a6CoPePPgbMWXa4VLYjtvPJbNdB30F2S87=9S_AXL6A@mail.gmail.com>

"We have found a small star, with a giant planet the size of Jupiter,
orbiting very closely," George Zhou, a Ph.D. student at the Australian
National University's Research School of Astrophysics and Astronomy in
Canberra and one of the researchers who discovered the planet, said in a
written statement. "It must have formed further out and migrated in, but
our theories can't explain how this happened."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/05/planet-too-big-for-its-star_n_7213586.html?ncid=fcbklnkushpmg00000063


John  :  )
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Fri May  8 07:20:50 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 00:20:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Ex Machina, and what it says about A.I.
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy2NAN27Gf3sLWW-HWwPC-B0GjDieH7iBePEEMnOmhV6YA@mail.gmail.com>

"In his thoughtful book Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies
<http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111>,
philosopher Nick Bostrom cautions of the dangers of AI, comparing our fate
to that of the gorillas: The same way that we can decide whether gorillas
live or die, an advanced AI can do the same to us."

*"Ex Machina* explores the theme, coupling it to another variable we don't
see in most philosophical or scientific analyses: It's not just the smarts
of the machine that can lead us to our demise; it, also, can have sex
appeal and seduce us in ways that are more emotional than intellectual. We
all have certain ideals of beauty. A smart machine can figure those out and
make itself irresistible. Rationally, we may want to destroy it; but
emotionally, we can't."


http://www.npr.org/blogs/13.7/2015/05/06/404640670/are-we-to-become-gods-the-destroyers-of-our-world?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20150506


John  :  )
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Fri May  8 07:24:13 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 00:24:13 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Fungi eat plastic and can survive without oxygen;
	may clean ocean and landfills
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy2dALF38d1ToGdF+xUmRZ9TT00Mok5QAcymehKT6eZg2A@mail.gmail.com>

"A group of students from Yale's Department of Molecular Physics and
Biochemistry traveled to Ecuador and found a fungus that wants to eat
polyurethane.  This new type of fungus can digest polyurethane in two
weeks, rather than the 1,000 years it would take just sitting around."

"It's the first fungus ever found to survive on only polyurethane, no
oxygen needed, which is why they want to use it at the bottom of landfills."


https://www.minds.com/blog/view/428263953315926016/fungi-eat-plastic-and-can-survive-without-oxygen-may-clean-ocean-and-landfills


John  :  )
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri May  8 12:37:32 2015
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 08:37:32 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Fungi eat plastic and can survive without oxygen;
 may clean ocean and landfills
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy2dALF38d1ToGdF+xUmRZ9TT00Mok5QAcymehKT6eZg2A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy2dALF38d1ToGdF+xUmRZ9TT00Mok5QAcymehKT6eZg2A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFi=dLdBR-ncN0VnsszPz1_4_TQRk6-ab2Kt-qyuWao+mw@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, May 8, 2015 at 3:24 AM, John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>
wrote:
>
> "It's the first fungus ever found to survive on only polyurethane, no
> oxygen needed, which is why they want to use it at the bottom of landfills."
>
>
>
> https://www.minds.com/blog/view/428263953315926016/fungi-eat-plastic-and-can-survive-without-oxygen-may-clean-ocean-and-landfills
>
>
> ### The comment at this link, "Maybe the mushrooms heard our call and
through meiosis, were able to rapidly develop to save the planet from the
plastic", is emblematic of what's wrong with so many in our society: When a
potential massive threat to human well-being is identified, all that they
say is "Let's hope it turns out even worse".

Rafa?
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From rex at nosyntax.net  Fri May  8 16:30:43 2015
From: rex at nosyntax.net (rex)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 09:30:43 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Fungi eat plastic and can survive without oxygen;
 may clean ocean and landfills
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy2dALF38d1ToGdF+xUmRZ9TT00Mok5QAcymehKT6eZg2A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy2dALF38d1ToGdF+xUmRZ9TT00Mok5QAcymehKT6eZg2A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20150508163043.GA26384@nosyntax.net>

John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com> [2015-05-08 00:25]:
>   "A group  of students  from  Yale's Department  of Molecular  Physics  and
>   Biochemistry traveled to  Ecuador and  found a  fungus that  wants to  eat
>   polyurethane.? This  new type  of fungus  can digest  polyurethane in  two
>   weeks, rather than the 1,000 years it would take just sitting around."
>
>   "It's the first  fungus ever  found to  survive on  only polyurethane,  no
>   oxygen needed,  which  is  why they  want  to  use it  at  the  bottom  of
>   landfills."
>
>   [1]https://www.minds.com/blog/view/428263953315926016/fungi-eat-plastic-and-can-survive-without-oxygen-may-clean-ocean-and-landfills

The usual reaction to make polyurethane is exothermic, so this fungus
cannot gain energy by reversing the polymerization. It must decompose
it into less energetic chemicals.

http://www1.chem.leeds.ac.uk/delights/texts/expt_31.html

OH?R?OH + OCN?R??NCO      ==> [?CO?NH?R?-NH?CO?O?R?O?]n

Polyol  + Polyisocyanate  ==>       Polyurethane

-rex
-- 
"Debugging is twice as hard as writing the code in the first place.
Therefore, if you write the code as cleverly as possible, you are,
by definition, not smart enough to debug it." --Brian W. Kernighan



From ipbrians at simplyweb.net  Fri May  8 16:08:15 2015
From: ipbrians at simplyweb.net (Ivor Peter Brians)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 09:08:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Is Evolution more random mutation than adaptation?
Message-ID: <AB734464-FA63-4AD5-AB8E-166840995A36@simplyweb.net>

On 5-7-2015 Henry Rivera wrote:
"I thought all evolutionary biologists already knew and accepted that speciation is a consequence of random mutation. It's survival of the species within an environmental context that shows natural selection at work. And I'm pretty sure I recall that Darwin said as much in the Origin of Species. Sounds like creationists may have confused people about this (even biologists?) due to their misunderstanding/misrepresenting of Darwin"

That is exactly what I thought when I read BillW's post although stated more eloquently by Henry than what I might have managed.
Decades ago in high school biology class we were taught that, "Species do not change to survive but survive because they happened to change." 
Ivor



From pharos at gmail.com  Fri May  8 18:19:02 2015
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 19:19:02 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Is Evolution more random mutation than adaptation?
In-Reply-To: <AB734464-FA63-4AD5-AB8E-166840995A36@simplyweb.net>
References: <AB734464-FA63-4AD5-AB8E-166840995A36@simplyweb.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armghbQKV5Kxb+vfK-Ww8Jxg_Jug56HyAj0Ay=2+S7bL90g@mail.gmail.com>

On 8 May 2015 at 17:08, Ivor Peter Brians  wrote:
> Decades ago in high school biology class we were taught that, "Species
> do not change to survive but survive because they happened to change."
>


I think the original researchers are saying that evolution is more
complex than that.

Adaptation and speciation are going on continuously. Adaptation makes
changes so that a species is more suited to the current environment.
But the researchers are claiming that it is the gradual accumulation
of small random mutations that lead to a new species over a time span
of about 2 million years.

This scenario takes place in an environment where climate change,
volcano eruptions, asteroid impacts, etc. wipe out many successful
species. If all the plant life is killed for years, many species have
no time to adapt, so they go extinct. The ancestors of humans came
very close to extinction several times when they dwindled to small
groups.

Perhaps it helps to be a 'lucky' species.

BillK


From tara at taramayastales.com  Fri May  8 18:58:54 2015
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 11:58:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Fungi eat plastic and can survive without oxygen;
	may clean ocean and landfills
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFi=dLdBR-ncN0VnsszPz1_4_TQRk6-ab2Kt-qyuWao+mw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy2dALF38d1ToGdF+xUmRZ9TT00Mok5QAcymehKT6eZg2A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFi=dLdBR-ncN0VnsszPz1_4_TQRk6-ab2Kt-qyuWao+mw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <B8C7E31B-4DA7-4344-B69E-E0D58A65394B@taramayastales.com>

I?ve often speculated that the huge layer of trash we are leaving around the earth is going to be the buried resource of some future species, much as the rainforests that turned into coal and oil are a resource for us. 

Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



> On May 8, 2015, at 5:37 AM, Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> 
> 
> On Fri, May 8, 2015 at 3:24 AM, John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com <mailto:possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>> wrote:
> "It's the first fungus ever found to survive on only polyurethane, no oxygen needed, which is why they want to use it at the bottom of landfills."
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.minds.com/blog/view/428263953315926016/fungi-eat-plastic-and-can-survive-without-oxygen-may-clean-ocean-and-landfills <https://www.minds.com/blog/view/428263953315926016/fungi-eat-plastic-and-can-survive-without-oxygen-may-clean-ocean-and-landfills>
> 
> 
> ### The comment at this link, "Maybe the mushrooms heard our call and through meiosis, were able to rapidly develop to save the planet from the plastic", is emblematic of what's wrong with so many in our society: When a potential massive threat to human well-being is identified, all that they say is "Let's hope it turns out even worse".

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From connor_flexman at brown.edu  Fri May  8 14:27:04 2015
From: connor_flexman at brown.edu (Flexman, Connor)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 10:27:04 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Fungi eat plastic and can survive without oxygen;
 may clean ocean and landfills
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFi=dLdBR-ncN0VnsszPz1_4_TQRk6-ab2Kt-qyuWao+mw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy2dALF38d1ToGdF+xUmRZ9TT00Mok5QAcymehKT6eZg2A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFi=dLdBR-ncN0VnsszPz1_4_TQRk6-ab2Kt-qyuWao+mw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CA++aaA_PvR-41U8S6k-Yd+1FadDsKtb0fDToDE-ePvE+7D-KmQ@mail.gmail.com>

>
> "It's the first fungus ever found to survive on only polyurethane, no
>> oxygen needed, which is why they want to use it at the bottom of landfills."
>>
> Are we not worried about the fungus spreading to actual polyurethane that
we use aboveground? It says it has the ability to break it down
anaerobically but not that oxygen is toxic or anything. It also attacks
some tree leaves in Japan, which makes me a little hesitant to introduce it
to a new part of the world given our past history with invasive species.
Connor
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From anders at aleph.se  Fri May  8 21:24:31 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 23:24:31 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Science fiction artwork by Simon Stalenghag
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy1Q4rkcT95xk53KZm564s5zj6b4B7H+rTMU3TatMn8U3Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <895931534-3146@secure.ericade.net>


John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com> , 8/5/2015 9:14 AM:

I love the eerie mixing of our world and the machines that will exist in coming decades...



The robot streetpunk is very disturbing...


http://www.simonstalenhag.se/


Coming decades? This is Sweden in the 80s!


Actually, yes. Simon St?lenhag draws scenes that are picture perfect of rural Sweden in the early 1980s... plus robots, dinosaurs and weird science, of course. His book "Ur Varselklotet" (?http://frialigan.se/produkt/ur-varselklotet-simon-stalenhag/ ) contains, besides his images, texts about growing up as a kid in the shadow of the weird technology. It is only of my favourite books. ?For somebody of my age it is chillingly nostalgic, although I never had to deal with the neutrino outlets from the local accelerator, or had a buddy steal an agricultural telepresence robot.?




Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From anders at aleph.se  Fri May  8 21:29:32 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 23:29:32 +0200
Subject: [ExI] In memoriam
Message-ID: <896232219-21651@secure.ericade.net>


I got reminded today that it was 15 years since Sasha Chislenko left our community.?


I decided to upload a recent picture of the Tanner Fountain at Harvard in memory of him: https://flic.kr/p/sgD5EY



Whenever I visualize regret, I think of this fountain.


In 1999 I visited Boston, staying with Alexander Chislenko. He took me to the fountain and suggested I'll dance with him in the mist. Shyly I refused, watching him dance among the rocks. I told myself that there would be other opportunities.?


But May 8 2000 he died. I will never get a chance to properly take him up on his offer to celebrate life and spontaneity.


So next time someone offers a dance in a fountain, take the chance.?



Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Fri May  8 22:19:59 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 15:19:59 -0700
Subject: [ExI] In memoriam
In-Reply-To: <896232219-21651@secure.ericade.net>
References: <896232219-21651@secure.ericade.net>
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy3ULpULahmFB_emVdLn33r4hosywackrd1Rz9MHMpUFkw@mail.gmail.com>

Anders, what a deeply bittersweet memory!  I never got the chance to meet
Sasha in person, but I had some very nice email exchanges with him.  I
remember that he offered me a high end job in the IT field, but I was not
sufficiently qualified.  Hey, now I could go on about preparation and
opportunities....

The person I painfully miss, though I only met him in person once, was
Robert Bradbury.  He made it possible for me to attend Extropy 5, where I
had many wonderful experiences, including seeing him "hold court" for hours
among young people, around a large table at the conference hotel.  The man
was to me my "transhumanist big brother," and I was shocked to find out
that at such a relatively young age, he died of a stroke.

I wish he were still alive, sharing opinionated posts on the Extropy list,
and attending transhumanist conferences to share his intelligence and
charisma with everyone.

I hope in some form I get to one day see him again.

http://web.archive.org/web/20090223094631/http://www.aeiveos.com:8080/~bradbury/index.html


John

On Fri, May 8, 2015 at 2:29 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> I got reminded today that it was 15 years since Sasha Chislenko left our
> community.
>
> I decided to upload a recent picture of the Tanner Fountain at Harvard in
> memory of him: https://flic.kr/p/sgD5EY
>
> Whenever I visualize regret, I think of this fountain.
>
> In 1999 I visited Boston, staying with Alexander Chislenko. He took me to
> the fountain and suggested I'll dance with him in the mist. Shyly I
> refused, watching him dance among the rocks. I told myself that there would
> be other opportunities.
>
> But May 8 2000 he died. I will never get a chance to properly take him up
> on his offer to celebrate life and spontaneity.
>
> So next time someone offers a dance in a fountain, take the chance.
>
>
>
> Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford
> University
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From natasha at natasha.cc  Fri May  8 22:13:23 2015
From: natasha at natasha.cc (natasha at natasha.cc)
Date: Fri, 08 May 2015 15:13:23 -0700
Subject: [ExI] In memoriam
In-Reply-To: <896232219-21651@secure.ericade.net>
Message-ID: <20150508151323.d116f5e08926a7036dd11a0a743afc19.f14487292c.mailapi@email17.secureserver.net>

Hi Anders, 
 
Memories -- I did dance with Sasha at a ExI event.  He was a fun dancer.
 
I love the song, when sung by Dolly Parton:
 
I hope you still feel small when you stand beside the ocean
Whenever one door closes I hope one more opens
Promise me that you'll give faith a fighting chance
And when you get the choice to sit it out or dance

Natasha
 
--------- Original Message --------- Subject: [ExI] In memoriam
From: "Anders Sandberg" <anders at aleph.se>
Date: 5/8/15 2:29 pm
To: "ExI chat list" <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>

 I got reminded today that it was 15 years since Sasha Chislenko left our community. 
 
I decided to upload a recent picture of the Tanner Fountain at Harvard in memory of him: https://flic.kr/p/sgD5EY
 
Whenever I visualize regret, I think of this fountain.
 
In 1999 I visited Boston, staying with Alexander Chislenko. He took me to the fountain and suggested I'll dance with him in the mist. Shyly I refused, watching him dance among the rocks. I told myself that there would be other opportunities. 
 
But May 8 2000 he died. I will never get a chance to properly take him up on his offer to celebrate life and spontaneity.
 
So next time someone offers a dance in a fountain, take the chance. 

 


Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University_______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Fri May  8 22:39:18 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 15:39:18 -0700
Subject: [ExI] In memoriam
In-Reply-To: <20150508151323.d116f5e08926a7036dd11a0a743afc19.f14487292c.mailapi@email17.secureserver.net>
References: <896232219-21651@secure.ericade.net>
 <20150508151323.d116f5e08926a7036dd11a0a743afc19.f14487292c.mailapi@email17.secureserver.net>
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy05NeY81i2n3n1hkyeQo_y_nvercqbvpJ+KU3zr7+TBtg@mail.gmail.com>

Natasha, I will have to do an online search for that beautiful song.

I just found (refound) this wonderful tribute to Robert, by George Dvorsky.

"At a personal level, Robert Bradbury was known as a generous, driven and
often outspoken individual. His unorthodox beliefs, a hallmark of the
transhumanist and Extropian <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extropianism>
communities of which he was a big part, often translated to personal
opinions that made others uncomfortable. Bradbury never shied away from
saying things that might offend others, but this largely came from his
powerful sense of outrage towards certain issues, including the problem of
death. A radical life extension crusader, Bradbury railed against the
needless deaths of people the world over and and how society spent so
relatively few resources to address the issue."

"Not content to merely wax philosophical on heady issues, Bradbury made a
number of attempts at various tech ventures, but often to poor results. He
desperately wanted to succeed at being a technology entrepreneur, and at
the time of his passing, may have felt deep frustration at not being more
successful in this regard. He also wanted to marry and have children, but
seemed to have doubts about having a successful and lasting relationship."


http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2011/03/remembering-robert-bradbury.html


John  :  )

On Fri, May 8, 2015 at 3:13 PM, <natasha at natasha.cc> wrote:

> Hi Anders,
>
> Memories -- I did dance with Sasha at a ExI event.  He was a fun dancer.
>
> I love the song, when sung by Dolly Parton:
>
> *I hope you still feel small when you stand beside the ocean*
> *Whenever one door closes I hope one more opens*
> *Promise me that you'll give faith a fighting chance*
> *And when you get the choice to sit it out or dance*
>
> Natasha
>
>
> --------- Original Message ---------
> Subject: [ExI] In memoriam
> From: "Anders Sandberg" <anders at aleph.se>
> Date: 5/8/15 2:29 pm
> To: "ExI chat list" <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
>
> I got reminded today that it was 15 years since Sasha Chislenko left our
> community.
>
> I decided to upload a recent picture of the Tanner Fountain at Harvard in
> memory of him: https://flic.kr/p/sgD5EY
>
>  Whenever I visualize regret, I think of this fountain.
>
> In 1999 I visited Boston, staying with Alexander Chislenko. He took me to
> the fountain and suggested I'll dance with him in the mist. Shyly I
> refused, watching him dance among the rocks. I told myself that there would
> be other opportunities.
>
> But May 8 2000 he died. I will never get a chance to properly take him up
> on his offer to celebrate life and spontaneity.
>
> So next time someone offers a dance in a fountain, take the chance.
>
>
>
> Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford
> University_______________________________________________ extropy-chat
> mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From spike66 at att.net  Fri May  8 23:12:01 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 16:12:01 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Fungi eat plastic and can survive without oxygen;
	may clean ocean and landfills
In-Reply-To: <B8C7E31B-4DA7-4344-B69E-E0D58A65394B@taramayastales.com>
References: <CAGSKFy2dALF38d1ToGdF+xUmRZ9TT00Mok5QAcymehKT6eZg2A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFi=dLdBR-ncN0VnsszPz1_4_TQRk6-ab2Kt-qyuWao+mw@mail.gmail.com>
 <B8C7E31B-4DA7-4344-B69E-E0D58A65394B@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <024101d089e4$67148050$353d80f0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Tara Maya
Sent: Friday, May 08, 2015 11:59 AM
To: rafal at smigrodzki.org; ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] Fungi eat plastic and can survive without oxygen; may clean ocean and landfills

 

>?I?ve often speculated that the huge layer of trash we are leaving around the earth is going to be the buried resource of some future species, much as the rainforests that turned into coal and oil are a resource for us. 

 

Tara Maya

 

 

 

Ja, but it might wreck an idea I had for sequestration of carbon (if we decide that is a good idea to do that.)  I had the notion of turning excess carbon into stable polymers (such as PVC) that nothing has evolved to devour.  Sounds like once again, life has figured out a way to utilize all available resources.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

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From mbb386 at main.nc.us  Fri May  8 23:23:03 2015
From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB)
Date: Fri, 8 May 2015 19:23:03 -0400
Subject: [ExI] In memoriam
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy05NeY81i2n3n1hkyeQo_y_nvercqbvpJ+KU3zr7+TBtg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <896232219-21651@secure.ericade.net>
 <20150508151323.d116f5e08926a7036dd11a0a743afc19.f14487292c.mailapi@email17.secureserver.net>
 <CAGSKFy05NeY81i2n3n1hkyeQo_y_nvercqbvpJ+KU3zr7+TBtg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <b437262bcb86cdde67f8f54ab74b639b.squirrel@www.main.nc.us>

I do not remember Sasha, although I remember his passing,
and the pain on this list.  I was a newbie then.

My first ExI post was a link to an article - and Robert
Bradbury responded recommending the link/article and
thanked me for posting it.  That's high praise to a
newbie. :) I was just going through some of my archives
and found his post. Pretty sure I'd saved it.

Along with posts from  Zero, Mike Lorrey, AL Villalobos,
Lee Crocker, Damien, Greg Burch!  Oh my - where are our
people???  Where did they go?

Regards,
MB




From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Sat May  9 01:24:03 2015
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Fri, 08 May 2015 21:24:03 -0400
Subject: [ExI] In memoriam
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy3ULpULahmFB_emVdLn33r4hosywackrd1Rz9MHMpUFkw@mail.g
 mail.com>
References: <896232219-21651@secure.ericade.net>
 <CAGSKFy3ULpULahmFB_emVdLn33r4hosywackrd1Rz9MHMpUFkw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <201505090234.t492YtJW020233@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

John Grigg wrote:

>The person I painfully miss, though I only met him in person once, 
>was Robert Bradbury.  He made it possible for me to attend Extropy 
>5, where I had many wonderful experiences, including seeing him 
>"hold court" for hours among young people, around a large table at 
>the conference hotel.  The man was to me my "transhumanist big 
>brother," and I was shocked to find out that at such a relatively 
>young age, he died of a stroke.
>
>I wish he were still alive, sharing opinionated posts on the Extropy 
>list, and attending transhumanist conferences to share his 
>intelligence and charisma with everyone.

Robert, at Extro 5. He was a regular at my continuation of Sasha's parties.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10203039363797846&l=82eb4abd17


-- David.



From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Sat May  9 01:16:19 2015
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Fri, 08 May 2015 21:16:19 -0400
Subject: [ExI] In memoriam
In-Reply-To: <896232219-21651@secure.ericade.net>
References: <896232219-21651@secure.ericade.net>
Message-ID: <201505090235.t492Z4fc010057@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

Anders wrote:

>In 1999 I visited Boston, staying with Alexander Chislenko. He took 
>me to the fountain and suggested I'll dance with him in the mist. 
>Shyly I refused, watching him dance among the rocks. I told myself 
>that there would be other opportunities.

Anders, here's a picture of you and Sasha from that visit.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10202946941767353&l=c27085775e


-- David.



From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Sat May  9 01:19:32 2015
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Fri, 08 May 2015 21:19:32 -0400
Subject: [ExI] In memoriam
In-Reply-To: <b437262bcb86cdde67f8f54ab74b639b.squirrel@www.main.nc.us>
References: <896232219-21651@secure.ericade.net>
 <20150508151323.d116f5e08926a7036dd11a0a743afc19.f14487292c.mailapi@email17.secureserver.net>
 <CAGSKFy05NeY81i2n3n1hkyeQo_y_nvercqbvpJ+KU3zr7+TBtg@mail.gmail.com>
 <b437262bcb86cdde67f8f54ab74b639b.squirrel@www.main.nc.us>
Message-ID: <201505090235.t492ZAS2008732@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

MB wrote:

>Along with posts from  Zero, Mike Lorrey, AL Villalobos,
>Lee Crocker, Damien, Greg Burch!  Oh my - where are our
>people???  Where did they go?

We're scattered to the winds. But I'm still friends with many of 
those who aren't here, back to the beginning of the original list. If 
you're curious about someone in particular, write to me off-list.


-- David.



From danust2012 at gmail.com  Sat May  9 13:05:57 2015
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan)
Date: Sat, 9 May 2015 06:05:57 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Winning board games?
Message-ID: <BDBF005C-4997-4E9B-BC72-B1857FCB73AD@gmail.com>

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/05/08/how-to-win-any-popular-game-according-to-data-scientists/

Regards,

Dan
 Sample my Kindle books via:
http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/
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From anders at aleph.se  Sat May  9 13:32:03 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 9 May 2015 15:32:03 +0200
Subject: [ExI] In memoriam
In-Reply-To: <201505090235.t492Z4fc010057@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <954093254-22992@secure.ericade.net>


David Lubkin <lubkin at unreasonable.com> , 9/5/2015 4:37 AM:
Anders wrote: 
>In 1999 I visited Boston, staying with Alexander Chislenko. He took  
>me to the fountain and suggested I'll dance with him in the mist.  
>Shyly I refused, watching him dance among the rocks. I told myself  
>that there would be other opportunities. 
 
Anders, here's a picture of you and Sasha from that visit. 
 
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10202946941767353&l=c27085775e 
 




Thanks! Sometimes I am glad the Internet never forgets.?





Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sat May  9 15:00:21 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 9 May 2015 10:00:21 -0500
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>

According to The Week, the Wall Street Journal has reacted to the Chinese
germline change attempts:

"Another danger is that the technique will be used to engineer offspring to
your liking - say, to produce a 6'2" blond, blue eyed son with a 150 IQ.
That's why it's imperative that scientists and the public establish
'widespread agreement about what is desirable' - before it's too late."

That blond kid really sounds dangerous to me.  bill w
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From tara at taramayastales.com  Sat May  9 15:09:04 2015
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Sat, 9 May 2015 08:09:04 -0700
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <BE768976-A8EE-43E6-AA92-7EF20B55ED08@taramayastales.com>



> On May 9, 2015, at 8:00 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> 'widespread agreement about what is desirable'


The very definition of dystopia not designing your offspring, but having to design your offspring according to widespead agreement about what is desirable.

Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>


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From anders at aleph.se  Sat May  9 19:01:34 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 9 May 2015 21:01:34 +0200
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <973710248-3556@secure.ericade.net>


William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> , 9/5/2015 5:03 PM:

According to The Week, the Wall Street Journal has reacted to the Chinese germline change attempts:


"Another danger is that the technique will be used to engineer offspring to your liking - say, to produce a 6'2" blond, blue eyed son with a 150 IQ.? That's why it's imperative that scientists and the public establish 'widespread agreement about what is desirable' - before it's too late."


That blond kid really sounds dangerous to me.? bill w



It is interesting that people are up in arms over germline modifications, while not recognizing that selection can do almost the same thing:
http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/embryo.pdf


When encountering anybody arguing that doing X may lead to designer babies and hence is impermissible, one should always ask what properties of designer babies make them so scary.




Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Sat May  9 20:54:08 2015
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Sat, 09 May 2015 16:54:08 -0400
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <973710248-3556@secure.ericade.net>
References: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <973710248-3556@secure.ericade.net>
Message-ID: <201505092054.t49KsVK9007470@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

Anders wrote:

>When encountering anybody arguing that doing X may lead to designer 
>babies and hence is impermissible, one should always ask what 
>properties of designer babies make them so scary.

They'll mock your wardrobe until you cry.


-- David.



From kryonica at gmail.com  Sun May 10 07:19:52 2015
From: kryonica at gmail.com (Cryonica)
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 08:19:52 +0100
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <201505092054.t49KsVK9007470@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <973710248-3556@secure.ericade.net>
 <201505092054.t49KsVK9007470@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <D4A4EDD3-3BF4-4142-8C6C-AA3BE4C14411@gmail.com>

??
> On 9 May 2015, at 21:54, David Lubkin <lubkin at unreasonable.com> wrote:
> 
> Anders wrote:
> 
>> When encountering anybody arguing that doing X may lead to designer babies and hence is impermissible, one should always ask what properties of designer babies make them so scary.
> 
> They'll mock your wardrobe until you cry.
> 
> 
> -- David.
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

Cryonica
kryonica at gmail.com



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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun May 10 14:34:47 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 09:34:47 -0500
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <201505092054.t49KsVK9007470@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <973710248-3556@secure.ericade.net>
 <201505092054.t49KsVK9007470@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZdmQowQ-TCJcdnHQWf43pRqdV-jC-orcXnzT1R+imFkA@mail.gmail.com>

The very definition of dystopia not designing your offspring, but having to
design your offspring according to widespead agreement about what is
desirable.  (tara)

Yes, that would be terrible, but given the big wide world we live in, there
will be places where anything goes, so geniuses and superathletes will be
created, despite widespread jealousy and maybe even attempts to destroy the
creators.  Or more likely, a scrambling to do even better - sort of an
Olympic games of baby design.  What would the world be like in the distant
future if there were little or no variation in intelligence and creativity?

Depending on who you read, evangelical religious people are fading in their
influence.  Those and other Luddites and paranoiacs will lose the battles
to those who want healthier children no matter what it takes to get them.

I do hope I am right.  I don't think even highly authoritarian governments
can stop this.  It has already started.

It just goes back to basic morality:  a tool can be used for different
purposes, good or evil, and no doubt future tools will be used for both,
just like they have always been.  (Or can we design out evil?!  I'd say
Yes.)

Bill W

On Sat, May 9, 2015 at 3:54 PM, David Lubkin <lubkin at unreasonable.com>
wrote:

> Anders wrote:
>
>  When encountering anybody arguing that doing X may lead to designer
>> babies and hence is impermissible, one should always ask what properties of
>> designer babies make them so scary.
>>
>
> They'll mock your wardrobe until you cry.
>
>
> -- David.
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun May 10 17:26:25 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 12:26:25 -0500
Subject: [ExI] better babies
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYceosJ=E5xV5zWhM2d2qQnFO-ee+G3aJeRahFPNM2NWQ@mail.gmail.com>

If, highly anachronistically, DNA science was in full bloom three thousand
years ago, maybe the model child would be like Odysseus.

What today would we call a person who was referred to by Homer as 'raider
of cities'?  Looting, murdering, raping inhabitants of the raided cities.
Thug at the least?  Terrorist more likely.

Times do change.  What will the model person be like three thousand years
from now?

Bill W
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From steinberg.will at gmail.com  Sun May 10 17:35:59 2015
From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg)
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 13:35:59 -0400
Subject: [ExI] better babies
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEYceosJ=E5xV5zWhM2d2qQnFO-ee+G3aJeRahFPNM2NWQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEYceosJ=E5xV5zWhM2d2qQnFO-ee+G3aJeRahFPNM2NWQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAKrqSyGgomPTmPJvr0pFGAeJK58LZTVhT7fNSX5YHRiJA5YvYQ@mail.gmail.com>

On May 10, 2015 1:27 PM, "William Flynn Wallace" <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:
>
> Times do change.  What will the model person be like three thousand years
from now?
>
> Bill W
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>

A robot.
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From robot at ultimax.com  Sun May 10 18:00:17 2015
From: robot at ultimax.com (Robert G Kennedy III, PE)
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 14:00:17 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Fungi eat plastic and can survive without oxygen;
 may clean ocean and landfills
In-Reply-To: <mailman.1.1431172802.23798.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.1.1431172802.23798.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <92755f6b8163a8cdc62024180210338c@ultimax.com>

On a serious note, paleomycology has revealed that fungi ended the 
Carboniferous Age when they learned to eat lignin. Until then, those 
giant tropical forests were a highly effective carbon sequestration 
mechanism with geologic effects.

You should also read up on the Azolla Event, which although having 
nothing to do with fungi, is another example of a small life form that 
had geologic effects amazingly quickly.

Btw, my mycologist friend, she says that mammals are about to be in big 
trouble the way amphibians already are, b/c fungi are learning how to 
operate inside hotter and hotter temperature regimes. Cold-blooded 
creatures have evolved various kinds of anti-fungal defenses over the 
aeons, but mammals did not have to b/c they run too hot. That's about to 
change...

-- 
Robert G Kennedy III, PE
www.ultimax.com


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun May 10 18:07:07 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 13:07:07 -0500
Subject: [ExI] better babies
In-Reply-To: <CAKrqSyGgomPTmPJvr0pFGAeJK58LZTVhT7fNSX5YHRiJA5YvYQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEYceosJ=E5xV5zWhM2d2qQnFO-ee+G3aJeRahFPNM2NWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKrqSyGgomPTmPJvr0pFGAeJK58LZTVhT7fNSX5YHRiJA5YvYQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZHtfjyR+kmbJ3ZmgNQSJnA_ENtN8KrC7gpVV26s0biaA@mail.gmail.com>

OK, a robot.  What is he/she/it like?

bill w

On Sun, May 10, 2015 at 12:35 PM, Will Steinberg <steinberg.will at gmail.com>
wrote:

>
> On May 10, 2015 1:27 PM, "William Flynn Wallace" <foozler83 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
> >
> > Times do change.  What will the model person be like three thousand
> years from now?
> >
> > Bill W
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > extropy-chat mailing list
> > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
> >
>
> A robot.
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From robot at ultimax.com  Sun May 10 17:51:52 2015
From: robot at ultimax.com (Robert G Kennedy III, PE)
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 13:51:52 -0400
Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?how_do_you_greet_a_parrot_named_=27Macbeth=27_=3F?=
In-Reply-To: <mailman.1.1431172802.23798.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.1.1431172802.23798.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <717cca798d7dee792a116363b6544f91@ultimax.com>

"Polyurethane."

RGK3

> On Fri, May 8, 2015 at 3:24 AM, John Grigg 
> <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>>
>> "It's the first fungus ever found to survive on only polyurethane, 
>> no
.                                                       ^^^^^^^^^^^^
>> oxygen needed, which is why they want to use it at the bottom of 
>> landfills."
>>
>> 
>> https://www.minds.com/blog/view/428263953315926016/fungi-eat-plastic-and-can-survive-without-oxygen-may-clean-ocean-and-landfills

-- 
Robert G Kennedy III, PE
www.ultimax.com


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Sun May 10 21:28:53 2015
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 17:28:53 -0400
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFifCCr3rkOamECkze1Jepas9BjUNEu5uSuW82XYBM1EbA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, May 9, 2015 at 11:00 AM, William Flynn Wallace
<foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
> According to The Week, the Wall Street Journal has reacted to the Chinese
> germline change attempts:
>
> "Another danger is that the technique will be used to engineer offspring to
> your liking - say, to produce a 6'2" blond, blue eyed son with a 150 IQ.
> That's why it's imperative that scientists and the public establish
> 'widespread agreement about what is desirable' - before it's too late."

### It's telling what that WSJ hack sees as dangerous: High
intelligence, physical health, white racial characteristics. Why
doesn't she warn about the danger of a 6'4 black basketball player
with inhuman dribbling? Why didn't she theorize about actual abuse
that could be committed using genetic engineering of offspring - like
making them pretty, servile, sex-obsessed, with reinforced vaginal and
anal musculature, and STD-resistant, the ideal sex slaves? How about
just making slaves - obedient, easy to feed, good as cannon fodder in
future wars?

There is something detestable about anybody who professes outrage that
children in the future could have higher IQ and the wrong skin color.

Rafa?



From danust2012 at gmail.com  Sun May 10 22:43:50 2015
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan)
Date: Sun, 10 May 2015 15:43:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] better babies
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEYceosJ=E5xV5zWhM2d2qQnFO-ee+G3aJeRahFPNM2NWQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEYceosJ=E5xV5zWhM2d2qQnFO-ee+G3aJeRahFPNM2NWQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <7F44688E-B31B-48FC-BFAC-64275BB72B24@gmail.com>

On May 10, 2015, at 10:26 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
> If, highly anachronistically, DNA science was in full bloom three thousand years ago, maybe the model child would be like Odysseus.
> 
> What today would we call a person who was referred to by Homer as 'raider of cities'?  Looting, murdering, raping inhabitants of the raided cities.   Thug at the least?  Terrorist more likely.
> 
> Times do change.  What will the model person be like three thousand years from now?
> 
> Bill W

Maybe more Achilles than Odysseus -- if we confine ourselves to the Ancient Greeks' ancestors. But I could imagine even them divided on this. ;)

Regards,

Dan
 Sample my Kindle books via:
http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/
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From anders at aleph.se  Mon May 11 12:05:43 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 11 May 2015 14:05:43 +0200
Subject: [ExI] better babies
In-Reply-To: <7F44688E-B31B-48FC-BFAC-64275BB72B24@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <1121812535-9937@secure.ericade.net>


Dan <danust2012 at gmail.com> , 11/5/2015 12:46 AM:


On May 10, 2015, at 10:26 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
Times do change.? What will the model person be like three thousand years from now?

Maybe more Achilles than Odysseus -- if we confine ourselves to the Ancient Greeks' ancestors. But I could imagine even them divided on this. ;)


Why not settle for Zeus then?


(Do I get to be Hermes in the extropian pantheon?)



Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From atymes at gmail.com  Tue May 12 03:54:54 2015
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 11 May 2015 20:54:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFifCCr3rkOamECkze1Jepas9BjUNEu5uSuW82XYBM1EbA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFifCCr3rkOamECkze1Jepas9BjUNEu5uSuW82XYBM1EbA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTg7WS8+_Yyu-83Hd1_4whHMdO+7n24YVUJs6wq_XdvPg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, May 10, 2015 at 2:28 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:

> ### It's telling what that WSJ hack sees as dangerous: High
> intelligence, physical health, white racial characteristics. Why
> doesn't she warn about the danger of a 6'4 black basketball player
> with inhuman dribbling? Why didn't she theorize about actual abuse
> that could be committed using genetic engineering of offspring - like
> making them pretty, servile, sex-obsessed, with reinforced vaginal and
> anal musculature, and STD-resistant, the ideal sex slaves? How about
> just making slaves - obedient, easy to feed, good as cannon fodder in
> future wars?
>
> There is something detestable about anybody who professes outrage that
> children in the future could have higher IQ and the wrong skin color.
>

I suspect the attempted (emphasis: attempted) implication was, "someone
ELSE'S kid could have these characteristics, but yours won't because you're
too pure/honest/ethical to do this to your kid (or maybe you just admit you
wouldn't spend this sort of money on your own child), so only the cheaters
would get this advantage".
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From painlord2k at libero.it  Tue May 12 10:25:05 2015
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Tue, 12 May 2015 12:25:05 +0200
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <5551D501.3040903@libero.it>

Il 09/05/2015 17:00, William Flynn Wallace ha scritto:
> According to The Week, the Wall Street Journal has reacted to the
> Chinese germline change attempts:
> 
> "Another danger is that the technique will be used to engineer offspring
> to your liking - say, to produce a 6'2" blond, blue eyed son with a 150
> IQ.  That's why it's imperative that scientists and the public establish
> 'widespread agreement about what is desirable' - before it's too late."


I would be scared by a blond, blue eyed, 150 IQ Chinese or Nigerian son
(of someone else). I don't know why, but surely in a dark alley at night
the 150 Iq would scare me a lot.

I note no one noted the writer wrote about sons and not daughters.

Would a 6'2" blond, blue eyed Chinese or Nigerian daughter (of someone
else) scare me or someone else? Why? And if not why no?

Apart for the implicit racism of singling out just blonds and blue eyes
people with 150 IQ, why so much hate for males and not for the females?



> That blond kid really sounds dangerous to me.  bill w

The blond kid with 150 IQ is a lot more difficult to exploit than the
black or Latinos with 80 IQ.
The leftist white elite (mainly in academia and in the infotainment
sector) would have a very difficult time to exploit someone with 150 IQ
whatever be their skin or eye color, sex or ethnicity.

This is the reason they fear germ-line modification. It make their
position untenable. They would need to work or fight to keep their jobs
and social status. What a concept.



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Tue May 12 13:48:30 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Tue, 12 May 2015 08:48:30 -0500
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTg7WS8+_Yyu-83Hd1_4whHMdO+7n24YVUJs6wq_XdvPg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFifCCr3rkOamECkze1Jepas9BjUNEu5uSuW82XYBM1EbA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNTg7WS8+_Yyu-83Hd1_4whHMdO+7n24YVUJs6wq_XdvPg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEacwK+F-oHvM6Eyua9sd13FNETjLKka94n4T1qqfnTcrA@mail.gmail.com>

Re sex slave:  I am reminded of the Hogarth before and after images (on
Google Images).  Be careful of what you ask for - you just might get it
(and she will wear you out asap and will want more and more and make you
feel so inadequate.....)  Actually women can do that now without any
additional features.  It's a major cause of impotence in fact.  Men will
need some very serious upgrades before thinking about equaling the standard
model woman.

Bill W

On Mon, May 11, 2015 at 10:54 PM, Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sun, May 10, 2015 at 2:28 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
> rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> ### It's telling what that WSJ hack sees as dangerous: High
>> intelligence, physical health, white racial characteristics. Why
>> doesn't she warn about the danger of a 6'4 black basketball player
>> with inhuman dribbling? Why didn't she theorize about actual abuse
>> that could be committed using genetic engineering of offspring - like
>> making them pretty, servile, sex-obsessed, with reinforced vaginal and
>> anal musculature, and STD-resistant, the ideal sex slaves? How about
>> just making slaves - obedient, easy to feed, good as cannon fodder in
>> future wars?
>>
>> There is something detestable about anybody who professes outrage that
>> children in the future could have higher IQ and the wrong skin color.
>>
>
> I suspect the attempted (emphasis: attempted) implication was, "someone
> ELSE'S kid could have these characteristics, but yours won't because you're
> too pure/honest/ethical to do this to your kid (or maybe you just admit you
> wouldn't spend this sort of money on your own child), so only the cheaters
> would get this advantage".
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Tue May 12 13:51:20 2015
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 12 May 2015 14:51:20 +0100
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <5551D501.3040903@libero.it>
References: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5551D501.3040903@libero.it>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjhV-Uh==dfbO+gkUDmDEBCQ7wcMtx72LMoT3KUaYg5qA@mail.gmail.com>

On 12 May 2015 at 11:25, Mirco Romanato wrote:
<snip>
> The blond kid with 150 IQ is a lot more difficult to exploit than the
> black or Latinos with 80 IQ.
> The leftist white elite (mainly in academia and in the infotainment
> sector) would have a very difficult time to exploit someone with 150 IQ
> whatever be their skin or eye color, sex or ethnicity.
>
> This is the reason they fear germ-line modification. It make their
> position untenable. They would need to work or fight to keep their jobs
> and social status. What a concept.
>


Sorry, but I'm afraid that high IQ people have just as many weird
beliefs as other people. They are just better at thinking up
self-justifying reasons.
Always remember that humans are mostly driven by emotion and
prejudice. They are occasionally somewhat rational, but they try to
hastily push that aside and get back to normal.  ;)

BillK


<http://thisisnotpsychology.tumblr.com/post/28662261683/why-smart-people-believe-strange-things>

Quote:
Why Smart People Believe Strange Things

As Keith Stanovich (2009) observed, IQ tests do a good job of
assessing how efficiently we process information, but they don't
assess the ability to think scientifically. For example, measures of
confirmation bias, like the Wason selection task (see Chapter 2), are
barely correlated, if at all, with IQ (Stanovich & West, 2008).
Indeed, high levels of intelligence afford no guarantee against
beliefs for which there's scant evidence (Hyman, 2002). People with
high IQs are at least as prone as other people to beliefs in
conspiracy theories, such as the belief that President Kennedy's
assassination was the result of a coordinated plot within the U.S.
government (Goertzel, 1994) or that the Bush administration
orchestrated the September 11 attacks (Mol?, 2006). Moreover, the
history of science is replete with examples of brilliant individuals
holding strange beliefs. Two-time Nobel Prize-winning chemist Linus
Pauling insisted that high levels of vitamin C can cure cancer,
despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

In many cases, smart people embrace odd beliefs because they're adept
at finding plausible-sounding reasons to bolster their opinions
(Shermer, 2002). IQ is correlated positively with the ability to
defend our positions effectively, but correlated negatively with the
ability to consider alternative positions (Perkins, 1981). High IQ may
be related to the strength of the ideological immune system: our
defences against evidence that contradicts our views (Shermer, 2002;
Snelson, 1993). We've all felt our ideological immune systems kicking
into high gear when a friend challenges our political beliefs (say,
about capital punishment) with evidence we'd prefer not to hear. First
we first feel defensive, and then we frantically search our mental
knowledge banks to find arguments that could refute our friend's
irksome evidence. Our knack for defending our positions against
competing viewpoints can sometimes lead to confirmation bias, blinding
us to information we should take seriously.

Robert Sternberg (2002) suggested that people with high IQs are
especially vulnerable to the sense of omniscience (knowing
everything). Because intelligent people know many things, they
frequently make the mistake of thinking they know just about
everything. For example, the brilliant writer Sir Arthur Conan Doyle,
who invented the character Sherlock Holmes, got taken in by an
embarrassingly obvious photographic prank (Hines, 2003). In the 1917
"Cottingley fairies" hoax, two young British girls insisted that
they'd photographed themselves along with dancing fairies. Brushing
aside the criticisms of doubters, Conan Doyle wrote a book about the
Cottingley fairies and defended the girls against accusations of
trickery. He'd forgotten the basic principle that extraordinary claims
require extraordinary evidence. The girls eventually confessed to
doctoring the photographs after someone discovered they'd cut the
fairies out of a book (Randi, 1982). Conan Doyle, who had a remarkably
sharp mind, may have assumed that he couldn't be duped. Yet none of us
is immune from errors in thinking. When intelligent people neglect the
safeguards afforded by the scientific method, they'll often be fooled.
-------------------------



From sparge at gmail.com  Tue May 12 14:55:48 2015
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Tue, 12 May 2015 10:55:48 -0400
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2fGP-5tzKmTK9M9udo3gYj0WW6eHUJtBR8pR2TvbyHrPg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, May 9, 2015 at 11:00 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> According to The Week, the Wall Street Journal has reacted to the Chinese
> germline change attempts:
>
> "Another danger is that the technique will be used to engineer offspring
> to your liking - say, to produce a 6'2" blond, blue eyed son with a 150
> IQ.  That's why it's imperative that scientists and the public establish
> 'widespread agreement about what is desirable' - before it's too late."
>
> That blond kid really sounds dangerous to me.  bill w
>

Clearly meant to remind one of the Nazis. Wikipedia summarizes the dangers
nicely:



*"The main critique towards eugenics policies is that regardless of whether
"negative" or "positive" policies are used, they are vulnerable to
political abuse because the criteria of selection are determined by
whichever group is in power. Furthermore, negative eugenics in particular
is considered by many to be a violation of basic human rights, which
include the right to reproduction."*
-Dave
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From anders at aleph.se  Tue May 12 18:39:08 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 12 May 2015 20:39:08 +0200
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2fGP-5tzKmTK9M9udo3gYj0WW6eHUJtBR8pR2TvbyHrPg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <1231209303-23036@secure.ericade.net>


Dave Sill <sparge at gmail.com> , 12/5/2015 4:58 PM:





Clearly meant to remind one of the Nazis. Wikipedia summarizes the dangers nicely:

"The main critique towards eugenics policies is that regardless of  whether "negative" or "positive" policies are used, they are vulnerable  to political abuse because the criteria of selection are determined by  whichever group is in power. Furthermore, negative eugenics in  particular is considered by many to be a violation of basic human  rights, which include the right to reproduction."




Which is of course a problematic argument against liberal eugenics, which leaves the choice up to the parents.


The interesting issue there is that the criteria may still be warped, but now the problem is the *culture* rather than political abuse. If everybody wants something stupid because everybody else wants it (or high status people want it, and people copy them), then bad results are likely. But how strong this anti-eugenic argument is depends on the empirical questions of what people may like and what the consequences are: they are pretty nontrivial.?


But if one think the badness of this argument is significant enough, one also ends up with an overall paternalist argument - why let voters vote freely if they all select the wrong politicians? (that argument more or less came up at a panel debate I participated in yesterday, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/videos/view/490 : the leftist sociologist gave a not too bad argument about how changes in how politics is done using focus groups produce a convergent state where all the main parties will produce similar policies and imprint them on voter values. ) But since one has already conceded that allowing politicians to determine important things (like eugenics) is bad, then one ends up with a situation where neither voters, nor politicians can be trusted with important stuff. So unless one believe one has some magical way of finding trustworthy competent people (*) one ends up in complete political nihilism.?



* Walter John Williams' "Aristoi" plays around with this and shows that even if by assumption that is true, things still don't go well. The problem is not just competence, but concentration of values.?


Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From natasha at natasha.cc  Tue May 12 20:49:43 2015
From: natasha at natasha.cc (natasha at natasha.cc)
Date: Tue, 12 May 2015 13:49:43 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Maker Fabricator / Engineer Design Full-time Faculty Position
Message-ID: <00dd01d08cf5$2ca632b0$85f29810$@natasha.cc>

Hello All -

 

If anyone has a background as an engineer and is an avid "maker" looking or
a possible full-time teaching position at undergraduate and graduate levels,
please contact me asap!  Location - Arizona.

 

Natasha

natasha at nataha.cc

 

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From tara at taramayastales.com  Tue May 12 22:00:09 2015
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Tue, 12 May 2015 15:00:09 -0700
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <1231209303-23036@secure.ericade.net>
References: <1231209303-23036@secure.ericade.net>
Message-ID: <6ABB2B32-BDA5-4F22-9305-84513D73D02D@taramayastales.com>


Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



> On May 12, 2015, at 11:39 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> 
> Dave Sill <sparge at gmail.com <mailto:sparge at gmail.com>> , 12/5/2015 4:58 PM:
> 
> Clearly meant to remind one of the Nazis. Wikipedia summarizes the dangers nicely:
> 
> "The main critique towards eugenics policies is that regardless of whether "negative" or "positive" policies are used, they are vulnerable to political abuse because the criteria of selection are determined by whichever group is in power. Furthermore, negative eugenics in particular is considered by many to be a violation of basic human rights, which include the right to reproduction."
> 
> 
> Which is of course a problematic argument against liberal eugenics, which leaves the choice up to the parents.


Indeed, the classical liberal argument for decentralizing power, and retaining as many rights to the individual, applies equally to preimplantation genetic planning.

While a wave of popular opinion might sway a large number of parents to make stupid genetic choices for their children at the same time (i.e. similar to the spread of the idiot idea that vaccines cause autism which led schools in rich, educated neighborhoods to suddenly see outbreaks of vanquished diseases resurgent), the chances that EVERY parent, or even MOST parents making the exact same choices for their children across a society are precisely nil.

In fact, the only way a society could impose the exact same genetic values on all the children of a generation at once is if it is enforced by the government, and non-compliant parents are either a) deprived of reproductive rights or b) deprived of their lives/liberty.

Now, if one takes away the straw argument of the original argument?that ALL parents would choose the same racial palette for their children, which is false and silly?one still may find that a huge number of parents DO want, consistently to improve three things for their children: health, capacity, and beauty. Not all parents will define those exactly alike, but it is true that almost all parents value those. Most parents probably do see intelligence as a large contributor to capacity, but if one wants a musical child, other things might be important too, like perfect pitch. (There?s also some evidence that perfect pitch is genetic.)

The problem then becomes one of a Free Market vs a Black Market. Tons of nations in the past and many others in the present tried to stop or change the Demographic Revolution by taking away women?s right to an abortion. And of course, some make the same arguments about abortion as about genetic planning of future offspring, that it somehow violates the right of an unborn person. However, the result of outlawing abortion is only to make it a black market operation. It is practiced in every nation on earth. 

Once the technology for preimplantation genetic planning becomes widespread and affordable, no amount of outlawing it will prevent it. The urgent and innate parental need to give their children every possible advantage will simply drive parents to the black market. Outlawing it will also make it more of a class issue, as rich parents will be able to get around the laws more easily (through clever legal loopholes or going overseas to nations where it?s legal, as happens now with preimplantation gender selection), while poor parents have to take more risks or go without.

In fact, the current argument about preimplantation gender selection is very relevant to where the fault lines for more comprehensive preimplantation genetic selection is likely to go. Right now gender selection is illegal in Western Europe, Britain, and Australia but legal in East Europe, Turkey, Mexico and the US. The result is a growing medical migration of parents who want it from the states where its not legal to those where it is to have the operation done. It?s still extremely pricy, so those numbers are small, but if the price drops and success rates of the operation go up, the number of parents willing to do it will rise as well. There is a huge unmet demand by parents to ?gender balance? their families. (In the past, when parents had 10 kids, the chances of having at least one of each sex was high, but when parents only have two, it?s much more difficult to make sure those two are a boy and a girl. The argument that gender selection will always be sexist doesn?t reflect the choices of Western parents.)





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From painlord2k at libero.it  Wed May 13 13:19:42 2015
From: painlord2k at libero.it (Mirco Romanato)
Date: Wed, 13 May 2015 15:19:42 +0200
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjhV-Uh==dfbO+gkUDmDEBCQ7wcMtx72LMoT3KUaYg5qA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5551D501.3040903@libero.it>
 <CAL_armjhV-Uh==dfbO+gkUDmDEBCQ7wcMtx72LMoT3KUaYg5qA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <55534F6E.1030408@libero.it>

Il 12/05/2015 15:51, BillK ha scritto:
> On 12 May 2015 at 11:25, Mirco Romanato wrote:
> <snip>
>> The blond kid with 150 IQ is a lot more difficult to exploit than the
>> black or Latinos with 80 IQ.
>> The leftist white elite (mainly in academia and in the infotainment
>> sector) would have a very difficult time to exploit someone with 150 IQ
>> whatever be their skin or eye color, sex or ethnicity.

>> This is the reason they fear germ-line modification. It make their
>> position untenable. They would need to work or fight to keep their jobs
>> and social status. What a concept.

> Sorry, but I'm afraid that high IQ people have just as many weird
> beliefs as other people. They are just better at thinking up
> self-justifying reasons.

This for sure.
People need a good training to be able to think logically and rationally
in a consistent way.

> Always remember that humans are mostly driven by emotion and
> prejudice. They are occasionally somewhat rational, but they try to
> hastily push that aside and get back to normal.  ;)

They are good a justifying their claims with altruistic reasons, but
usually these claim, in the long and not so long run, are useful to them
more than they are useful to the people they claim to help.


-- 
Mirco Romanato


From danust2012 at gmail.com  Wed May 13 15:17:29 2015
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan)
Date: Wed, 13 May 2015 08:17:29 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Rocket Lab
Message-ID: <F61E06CE-46CB-446F-86CC-5B464F177ABE@gmail.com>

http://www.rocketlabusa.com/index.html

Well, they have a clean mobile site. ;)

Regards,

Dan
 Sample my Kindle books via:
http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Wed May 13 17:00:44 2015
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Wed, 13 May 2015 10:00:44 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Our Finite World
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB6xtA7=j=Dprs2MGuH2kDWCh-oZ7m94E8NDQ96R1YsRFg@mail.gmail.com>

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/05/06/why-we-have-an-oversupply-of-almost-everything-oil-labor-capital-etc/#comments

What would the end game of "limits to growth" look like?  Gail thinks
things will fall apart due to lack of demand and that because the
oversupply of labor drives down wages, which leaves the consumers
without resources to buy in the marketplace.

I know Gail Tverberg from when she was with the now defunct Oil Drum.
She edited the power satellite and StratoSolar articles I wrote for
them.

This article attracted over 400 comments.

Keith


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Wed May 13 18:20:01 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 13 May 2015 13:20:01 -0500
Subject: [ExI] robots again
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZ9JsfNVG+s3wWXTy2eiPLW0VWU4rJETJXcNcQ5gzZDVg@mail.gmail.com>

C'mon you guys and gals - you've let me down - not that you owe me.  As a
personality psychologist I am intensely interested in your takes on future
humans and future robots.

As usually depicted in fiction, robots and AIs are mostly totally passive
personalities - running other machines, following orders, responding to
questions, but hardly ever being active, presenting problems before they
occur and so on.  The partly organic AIs in Dan Simmons Ilium and Olympos
[highly recommended] are the closest to human personalities I've run across
(and would love to hear about more), interested in Proust and Shakespeare
and more.

Since we program them, we can program anything we can, and so why not
program them to have personalities?  About the only personality traits
depicted in fiction are the voices - sultry altos, etc.

Will they be introverted or extroverted? Calm or neurotic  (C3PO)?  Open to
experience?  Much has been written about the morality of AIs, robots, etc.
What is your take on this?

Or, if you know of some really good writings on these subjects, fact or
fiction,  I will be in your debt if you let me know about them.

Thanks!

Bill W
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From anders at aleph.se  Wed May 13 19:57:56 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 13 May 2015 21:57:56 +0200
Subject: [ExI] robots again
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZ9JsfNVG+s3wWXTy2eiPLW0VWU4rJETJXcNcQ5gzZDVg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <1321660001-9189@secure.ericade.net>


William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> , 13/5/2015 8:22 PM:

Will they be introverted or extroverted? Calm or neurotic? (C3PO)?? Open to experience?? Much has been written about the morality of AIs, robots, etc.? What is your take on this?


Or, if you know of some really good writings on these subjects, fact or fiction,? I will be in your debt if you let me know about them.


I think one of the best depictions of an AI personality is Stanislaw Lem's "Golem XIV". The superintelligent computer points out that it doesn't have a personality, but in order to communicate with humans it provides an interface, which humans will interpret as a personality. The thing behind the scenes is totally alien and unknowable to the human mind, as it explains in one of the lectures.


Another good take on "personality as an interface" is the tachikoma spider-tank robots in Ghost in the Shell SAC. Cheerful like little schoolgirls... except that their memories get merged every evening so there is no individuality beyond one day (and they are totally unconcerned with individual robots getting destroyed). Many of the most memorable moments involve seeing beneath the schoolgirl user interfaces to the very different internal processes.?


There is a fair bit of literature on social and emotional robotics trying to produce machines that have this kind of interface.


In neuroscience there are a bundle of research trying to find links between personality traits and neuromodulation (see the work of Cloninger et al.) that also links to reinforcement learning models of AI. One can argue that the eligibility traces, exploration/exploitation trade-off, learning rate and other parameters constitute a kind of personality for the agent. Some agents tire quickly of unrewarding tasks, others persevere. Some perform actions that look good long-term, others don't, and so on - depending on settings. I got an agent that had learned helplessness because it got too strong negative reinforcement from common mistakes, so it learned that the best action was always inaction. Here the "personality" is something that emerges from internal machine learning algorithms rather than a tacked on appearance.


I think the basic problem is that a real AI will likely have a personality in the sense of common behavioural patterns, but the causes and structure of these may be very different from the causes and structures of personality in humans. Yet we will interpret some of these patterns as "calm", "aggressive", or "open-minded" and then get confused when these predictions of future behaviour fail because our models are very wrong.





Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From anders at aleph.se  Wed May 13 21:18:41 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 13 May 2015 23:18:41 +0200
Subject: [ExI] robots again
In-Reply-To: <1321660001-9189@secure.ericade.net>
Message-ID: <1327201761-6840@secure.ericade.net>

Incidentally, just saw this:
http://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/a-new-zealand-firm-is-building-an-angry-ai/



"The Touchpoint Group hopes to develop an angry AI, using two years? worth of customer calls from four of Australia?s largest banks. Over the next six months, a team of data scientists will use these calls to build a model that companies can then use to find the best response to common customer complaints."


If the AI would actually feel anger, I think it would be both unethical and a bad idea. But here we are dealing with a deliberately constructed set of behavioural and verbal responses with nothing behind them.?


Now, some other AI models actually do make plans and have frustration and goal repair mechanisms when they find their plans thwarted. I think they might have a more real shot at having something like emotions. The angry AI doesn't actually *care* about the bad service, but one could imagine one that tries to achieve some goal (say a banking operation) and as a plan-repair function tries to goad an employee into helping it achieve the goal. There might still be instrumental/fake emotions there - sometimes sounding angry works - but there could also be proper/intrinsic states where the AI may do or say things because they might return the internal states of the AI to higher value states. In humans a lot of angry yelling is all about protecting one's self image by lowering the status of the other party; if the AI has some similar concern it might also yell "for real".?


Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From spike66 at att.net  Wed May 13 22:59:49 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 13 May 2015 15:59:49 -0700
Subject: [ExI] singularity talk at lmco
Message-ID: <00a801d08dd0$86af1700$940d4500$@att.net>

 

 

Cool, the singularity is so mainstream now, the weekly colloquium
advertisement uses the term Singularity thrice without ever feeling the need
to define the term.  A stodgy old company like Lockheed now is assumed to
understand what is the singularity.  

 

I had an idea for bringing about the singularity.  We think of it as a
program which (somehow) develops human intelligence and motives, but we as a
species have demonstrated we have no clue how to create that software.
Suppose we theorize that a singularity could arise from a gigabyte program
(assuming away comments and any embedded documentation, spaces, visual
breaks etc) so that's 10^9 bytes or 10^12 bits.  We start with 10^12 bits,
set them all to zero, run that, if no singularity, set the first bit to 1,
run that, no singularity, second bit to 1 first to 0, and so on.  Keep
incrementing thru all 10^2 bits and hope that the first (in numerical order)
intelligent program is friendly.  Then if no singularity occurs, we know
that no gigabyte program can become intelligent and end humanity and all
life as we know it.  

 

We could distribute the task (and would need to) since there would be 2^2^12
possible different gigabyte programs, which is a lot, and we also need to
deal with all the vile pornographic images and political commentary from the
other end of the spectrum and such things that would be generated, all
smaller than a gigabyte.

 

On the other hand there is no reason to think there is only one intelligent
program.  If a program is perfectly optimized for minimum variable name
lengths with no comments and such, there is very little chance that it takes
exactly a gigabyte.  There are probably a few bits left over, and in most
programming languages spaces can be inserted for ease of reading without
changing anything, so if you have a gigabyte program which is intelligent we
could insert a space in perhaps a billion different places and the thing
would still be self-aware and if so there are a billion different
configurations which could end us all.  Or not.

 

spike

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From msd001 at gmail.com  Thu May 14 05:34:58 2015
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Thu, 14 May 2015 01:34:58 -0400
Subject: [ExI] singularity talk at lmco
In-Reply-To: <00a801d08dd0$86af1700$940d4500$@att.net>
References: <00a801d08dd0$86af1700$940d4500$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbJzSKQ7Lfa1Hid8GRh5j5FGAa6UNCvyf+zqhaJBCsZsrg@mail.gmail.com>

On May 13, 2015 4:15 PM, "spike" <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> I had an idea for bringing about the singularity.
> On the other hand there is no reason to think there is only one
intelligent program.  If a program is perfectly optimized for minimum
variable name lengths with no comments and such, there is very little
chance that it takes exactly a gigabyte.  There are probably a few bits
left over, and in most programming languages spaces can be inserted for
ease of reading without changing anything, so if you have a gigabyte
program which is intelligent we could insert a space in perhaps a billion
different places and the thing would still be self-aware and if so there
are a billion different configurations which could end us all.  Or not.
>

...and the schnozberries taste like schnozberries :)
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From anders at aleph.se  Thu May 14 10:02:21 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 14 May 2015 12:02:21 +0200
Subject: [ExI] singularity talk at lmco
In-Reply-To: <00a801d08dd0$86af1700$940d4500$@att.net>
Message-ID: <1373040297-6014@secure.ericade.net>



spike?<spike66 at att.net>?, 14/5/2015 1:16 AM:


I had an idea for bringing about the singularity.? We think of it as a program which (somehow) develops human intelligence and motives, but we as a species have demonstrated we have no clue how to create that software.? Suppose we theorize that a singularity could arise from a gigabyte program (assuming away comments and any embedded documentation, spaces, visual breaks etc) so that?s 10^9 bytes or 10^12 bits.? We start with 10^12 bits, set them all to zero, run that, if no singularity, set the first bit to 1, run that, no singularity, second bit to 1 first to 0, and so on.? Keep incrementing thru all 10^2 bits and hope that the first (in numerical order) intelligent program is friendly.? Then if no singularity occurs, we know that no gigabyte program can become intelligent and end humanity and all life as we know it.?


There is of course the obvious problem that 2^2^12 runs is a *tad* more than what can be done in the universe. But there is also another cool problem: the time needed to check whether you get a singularity.?


Right now AIXI(tl) is actually running on some computers and actually building towards a singularity - one can prove that it will eventually become as smart as (or smarter than) everything else. Except that the code is doubly exponential in time. Protons will have decayed before it will come up with any idea.?


Then there is the Busy Beaver problem: we know even very short programs can produce very long - but eventually halting - executions. The upper bound (Rado's sigma function) grows *very* fast with program length, in fact so fast that it is uncomputable using Turing machines! But this also means we can get "fake singularities" that run amazingly for a very long while and then just stop.?


So on one hand you could have real singularities like AIXI(tl) that are immensely slow, and fake ones that actually aren't going indefinitely but you cannot wait long enough to see that they are fake. In fact, by the uncomputability of the sigma function, I think it follows that there is no Turing-program that can tell them apart even in theory!






Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From giulio at gmail.com  Thu May 14 10:59:26 2015
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Thu, 14 May 2015 12:59:26 +0200
Subject: [ExI] A little (and slow:-) provocation
Message-ID: <CAKTCJydGXa-=C9-ro5Cb32_tV_Di=zvZH-exqEMQ4hO9fhS_Sw@mail.gmail.com>

unSingularity ? let?s enjoy the slow hike to the future
http://turingchurch.com/2015/05/14/unsingularity-lets-enjoy-the-slow-hike-to-the-future/



From spike66 at att.net  Thu May 14 13:59:13 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 14 May 2015 06:59:13 -0700
Subject: [ExI] singularity talk at lmco
In-Reply-To: <1373040297-6014@secure.ericade.net>
References: <00a801d08dd0$86af1700$940d4500$@att.net>
 <1373040297-6014@secure.ericade.net>
Message-ID: <009a01d08e4e$2bc44260$834cc720$@att.net>

 

 

>? Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Subject: Re: [ExI] singularity talk at lmco

 

 

spike <spike66 at att.net> , 14/5/2015 1:16 AM:

I had an idea for bringing about the singularity?  We start with 10^12 bits, set them all to zero, run that, if no singularity, set the first bit to 1, run that, no singularity, second bit to 1 first to 0, and so on?

 

>?There is of course the obvious problem that 2^2^12 runs is a *tad* more than what can be done in the universe. But there is also another cool problem: the time needed to check whether you get a singularity. 

 

Well sure, 2^2^12 is about2^10^3.6 or 2^4000 which is about 10^1200 or so programs to try, if we really must think in base 10, the way we wet gooey carbon units like to do.  I still prefer to think of it as 2^2^12.  But if we get on it immediately, perhaps the first singularity-producing program will be sufficiently smart to figure out a way to stop protons from decaying while there are still sufficient numbers of them to pair up with the lonely widow electrons whose protons have already decayed.

 

>?So on one hand you could have real singularities like AIXI(tl) that are immensely slow, and fake ones that actually aren't going indefinitely but you cannot wait long enough to see that they are fake. In fact, by the uncomputability of the sigma function, I think it follows that there is no Turing-program that can tell them apart even in theory!  Anders Sandberg?

 

Thanks Anders!  This is so cool.  The Singularity talk is this afternoon.  News at 11.

 

spike

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From pharos at gmail.com  Tue May 19 11:12:38 2015
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 19 May 2015 12:12:38 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The End of Meaningful Work
Message-ID: <CAL_armgb1iSVpW6DcFrotU3C7Nxiev0cSK72__PLzzKrwY5XxA@mail.gmail.com>

Long article at Dark Bid. (Well over the current 8 second attention span).

<http://www.dark-bid.com/end-of-meaningful-work.html>

Some quotes:

The End of Meaningful Work: A World of Machines and Social Alienation
Daniel Drew,  5/18/2015

Many activists are clamoring for a higher minimum wage. That's an
admirable goal, but is that where the worst problem is? Even at the
abysmally low wages of the present moment, we still have 938,000
people being turned away from McDonald's because there aren't enough
McJobs. The real problem is the lack of meaningful work. In a world of
machines and social alienation, meaningful work is as scarce as water
in the drought-stricken California Central Valley.

Even up to the present day, many view new technology and efficiency as
the main drivers of human progress. For awhile, it seemed like this
was indisputable. In his book Rise of the Robots, Martin Ford
describes the 25 years after World War II as the "golden age" of the
American economy. Productivity, employment, and wages were increasing
in synchrony. As with many trends, economists assumed they would
continue indefinitely. It was the glorious free market at work.

Then it all came crashing down at the turn of the century.

This time, it really is different. The shift happened when machines
transformed from mere tools to actual workers.

Martin Ford explained, "In 1998, workers in the US business sector put
in a total of 194 billion hours of labor. A decade and a half later,
in 2013, the value of the goods and services produced by American
businesses had grown by about $3.5 trillion after adjusting for
inflation - a 42 percent increase in output. The total amount of human
labor required to accomplish that was...194 billion hours. Shawn
Sprague, the BLS economist who prepared the report, noted that 'this
means that there was ultimately no growth at all in the number of
hours worked over this 15-year-period, despite the fact that the US
population gained over 40 million people during that time, and despite
the fact that there were over thousands of new businesses established
during that time.'"

If this trend continues a few more years, it will be two lost decades,
which means an entire generation has gone by with no net new jobs
created. This might be somewhat permissible if the population had
stagnated or declined, but with 40 million new people, it sets the
stage for a national disaster.

It is truly a new era.
---------

Much more detailed exposition in the article.

A world with few jobs? What are billions of humans going to do?

One obvious answer is to fight with each other. At least it's
something to do that gives a sense of achievement to the survivors.
Mass medication to tranquilise populations?
The next generation are going to have to face some tricky problems.

BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Tue May 19 14:39:52 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 19 May 2015 07:39:52 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The End of Meaningful Work
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgb1iSVpW6DcFrotU3C7Nxiev0cSK72__PLzzKrwY5XxA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armgb1iSVpW6DcFrotU3C7Nxiev0cSK72__PLzzKrwY5XxA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <009001d09241$af486070$0dd92150$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of BillK


>... Much more detailed exposition in the article...  BillK


Cool!  Check out this from the article:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fH9IlZpwOPA

Sexbots can't be far off.  I know what I was thinking when I was watching
her: oh my, life... is...  gooooood...

{8-]

spike

---------






From tara at taramayastales.com  Tue May 19 15:13:22 2015
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Tue, 19 May 2015 08:13:22 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The End of Meaningful Work
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgb1iSVpW6DcFrotU3C7Nxiev0cSK72__PLzzKrwY5XxA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armgb1iSVpW6DcFrotU3C7Nxiev0cSK72__PLzzKrwY5XxA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <E69181AF-900C-40B2-9B8D-60189BDA6FB9@taramayastales.com>

I think it should be called, rather, ?The End of MeaningLESS work.? McJobs are not meaningful.

I always laugh when I hear about anyone worrying that we will?run out? of new jobs. If you think that, study traditional Balinese culture. Even without robots, they lived on a tropical island with an ideal climate and food that literally falls into your lap. 

Nonetheless, the people are ALWAYS busy. Dancing. Performing Plays. Making costumes for dance and plays. Building giant flower pyramids. Parading giant flower pyramids around. Etc. It might seem silly, but since it all has ?spiritual? value, I am sure that the people experience it as far more ?meaningful? than flipping burgers in a greasy spoon. Certainly, it?s more fun dancing on a tropical beach in a crown of flowers than slaving over a hot stove.

Really, never underestimate the human creativity to come up with new occupations. 

Tara Maya
Blog  |  Twitter  |  Facebook  |  Amazon  |  Goodreads



> On May 19, 2015, at 4:12 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> Long article at Dark Bid. (Well over the current 8 second attention span).
> 
> <http://www.dark-bid.com/end-of-meaningful-work.html>
> 
> Some quotes:
> 
> The End of Meaningful Work: A World of Machines and Social Alienation
> Daniel Drew,  5/18/2015
> 
> Many activists are clamoring for a higher minimum wage. That's an
> admirable goal, but is that where the worst problem is? Even at the
> abysmally low wages of the present moment, we still have 938,000
> people being turned away from McDonald's because there aren't enough
> McJobs. 



From spike66 at att.net  Tue May 19 16:03:47 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 19 May 2015 09:03:47 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The End of Meaningful Work
In-Reply-To: <E69181AF-900C-40B2-9B8D-60189BDA6FB9@taramayastales.com>
References: <CAL_armgb1iSVpW6DcFrotU3C7Nxiev0cSK72__PLzzKrwY5XxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <E69181AF-900C-40B2-9B8D-60189BDA6FB9@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <001e01d0924d$66bd8d60$3438a820$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of Tara Maya
Subject: Re: [ExI] The End of Meaningful Work

>...I think it should be called, rather, ?The End of MeaningLESS work.? McJobs are not meaningful...Nonetheless, the people are ALWAYS busy...Really, never underestimate the human creativity to come up with new occupations...Tara Maya



Ja!  If we get really good sexbots, people would be busy.  Not just THAT kind of busy, I mean just think of the software tasks that could be done.  

Think of the 1930s when cars were new-ish and there were a lot of potential modifications to hop up the motors; allllll that creativity that went into finding ways to make cars go faster.  Consider the pace of technology evolution when every third garage had some yahoo in there messing with the hardware, inventing improvements and such.  It was an example of what happens when there is a direct feedback between creativity and reward: it was really cool to have the fastest ride on the block.  Of course everyone benefitted: it was a massive crowdfunded experiment in internal combustion optimization.  Car companies watched and listened, and made buttloads of money off of those ideas.  Today we all have really good, reliable, efficient fast cars.

Now consider a more recent analogous example.  Plenty of us here were building hotrod personal computers in the 1980s and 1990s.  Lots of very direct positive feedback for the successful.  Companies watched and listened, now we all have really good reliable efficient fast computers.

Sexbots: imagine the potential software improvements where we make mods to teach her (or him (or it)) new tricks in the bedroom.  The testing phase after each experimental software iteration would give an entirely new and more literal meaning to the phrase "OK, fuck this."

spike




From pharos at gmail.com  Tue May 19 19:01:26 2015
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 19 May 2015 20:01:26 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The End of Meaningful Work
In-Reply-To: <E69181AF-900C-40B2-9B8D-60189BDA6FB9@taramayastales.com>
References: <CAL_armgb1iSVpW6DcFrotU3C7Nxiev0cSK72__PLzzKrwY5XxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <E69181AF-900C-40B2-9B8D-60189BDA6FB9@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armiBhBHg=SobJvGXkB9+GNzh50Ek8pN5o9Hyg-F+TvAATg@mail.gmail.com>

On 19 May 2015 at 16:13, Tara Maya  wrote:
> I always laugh when I hear about anyone worrying that we will"run out" of
> new jobs. If you think that, study traditional Balinese culture. Even without
> robots, they lived on a tropical island with an ideal climate and food that
> literally falls into your lap.
>
> Nonetheless, the people are ALWAYS busy. Dancing. Performing Plays.
> Making costumes for dance and plays. Building giant flower pyramids.
> Parading giant flower pyramids around. Etc.
> Really, never underestimate the human creativity to come up with new occupations.

The Western idea of Bali as a primitive island paradise is to ignore
the nasty side of Bali.

Most of the dancing, parades, etc. are now done for payment as
entertainment for Western tourists.
Bali is a paedophile and adult sex tourism centre and the sex industry
is big business.
HIV/AIDS is at epidemic levels and STDs are common.
Illegal drugs are readily available despite the death penalty for trafficking.
Historically Bali was involved in wars and the slave trade.

But I agree that in general humans will always find something to do.
However, 'the devil makes work for idle hands' is a Western proverb.
Bali has a small population and has had centuries to develop their
society. The question is how the billions now living in cities will
react to the changes suddenly happening to them.

BillK


From pharos at gmail.com  Tue May 19 19:02:06 2015
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 19 May 2015 20:02:06 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The End of Meaningful Work
In-Reply-To: <001e01d0924d$66bd8d60$3438a820$@att.net>
References: <CAL_armgb1iSVpW6DcFrotU3C7Nxiev0cSK72__PLzzKrwY5XxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <E69181AF-900C-40B2-9B8D-60189BDA6FB9@taramayastales.com>
 <001e01d0924d$66bd8d60$3438a820$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgUbabpcMUTbf425abMAxe3nw9_21nd-iXfhN2JwV-S1g@mail.gmail.com>

On 19 May 2015 at 17:03, spike wrote:
<snip>
> Now consider a more recent analogous example.  Plenty of us here
> were building hotrod personal computers in the 1980s and 1990s.
> Lots of very direct positive feedback for the successful.  Companies
> watched and listened, now we all have really good reliable efficient fast computers.
>
> Sexbots: imagine the potential software improvements where we make mods to
> teach her (or him (or it)) new tricks in the bedroom.

I have heard a rumour that unemployed people living on benefits spend
quite a lot of time doing sex and drugs with each other.  This
occupation may continue on a larger scale when everyone is unemployed.

So sexbots may be a minority interest. As to 'new tricks', I have been
informed that for every weird unlikely thing you can think of, there
are photos and videos on the internet of humans demonstrating every
variation.

(Does having sex with a sexbot count as being 'unfaithful' to a human partner?).


BillK


From tara at taramayastales.com  Tue May 19 19:40:19 2015
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Tue, 19 May 2015 12:40:19 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The End of Meaningful Work
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiBhBHg=SobJvGXkB9+GNzh50Ek8pN5o9Hyg-F+TvAATg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armgb1iSVpW6DcFrotU3C7Nxiev0cSK72__PLzzKrwY5XxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <E69181AF-900C-40B2-9B8D-60189BDA6FB9@taramayastales.com>
 <CAL_armiBhBHg=SobJvGXkB9+GNzh50Ek8pN5o9Hyg-F+TvAATg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <47372285-F6CB-4411-BC01-6665788C4D29@taramayastales.com>




> On May 19, 2015, at 12:01 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> 
> The Western idea of Bali as a primitive island paradise is to ignore
> the nasty side of Bali.


No arguments on that. However, we weren?t discussing whether Utopia is possible?I don?t believe it is?but only whether human beings are capable of fully occupying themselves with activities.

As long as each of us can think of two jobs we?d hire another to do, if we could only afford it, it is simply silly to speak of there being real lack of jobs. Lack of people educated to do the jobs we now need, sure. I?ll be the Agricultural Revolution put a lot of hunters out of work too. But that?s hardly the same thing.

No one has yet invented an (affordable) robot that can keep my kids room clean without me having to break my back picking up toys. Believe me, the robot revolution still has far, far, far, FAR to go in terms of ending menial labor as far as I?m concerned.


Tara Maya
Blog  |  Twitter  |  Facebook  |  Amazon  |  Goodreads






From spike66 at att.net  Tue May 19 20:28:28 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 19 May 2015 13:28:28 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The End of Meaningful Work
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiBhBHg=SobJvGXkB9+GNzh50Ek8pN5o9Hyg-F+TvAATg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armgb1iSVpW6DcFrotU3C7Nxiev0cSK72__PLzzKrwY5XxA@mail.gmail.com>
 <E69181AF-900C-40B2-9B8D-60189BDA6FB9@taramayastales.com>
 <CAL_armiBhBHg=SobJvGXkB9+GNzh50Ek8pN5o9Hyg-F+TvAATg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00d601d09272$613c1940$23b44bc0$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of BillK
:
> ...The Western idea of Bali as a primitive island paradise is to ignore
the nasty side of Bali.  Most of the dancing, parades, etc. are now done for
payment as entertainment for Western tourists.
Bali is a paedophile and adult sex tourism centre and the sex industry is
big business...BillK
_______________________________________________

There you go, the sexbots will end that problem, if we outfit them with
replaceable orifices.  It is the safest sex, and the cheapest in the long
run, and the lowest effort.  

On the other hand I suppose it could cause massive unemployment in Bali, a
major disruptor of the no-collar industry.

Oy.

spike



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed May 20 00:39:08 2015
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Tue, 19 May 2015 20:39:08 -0400
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjhV-Uh==dfbO+gkUDmDEBCQ7wcMtx72LMoT3KUaYg5qA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5551D501.3040903@libero.it>
 <CAL_armjhV-Uh==dfbO+gkUDmDEBCQ7wcMtx72LMoT3KUaYg5qA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFgux1EL-nmYMV4xA_zDPs_9MvQX=K-BUzHXfMJhYq5UEQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, May 12, 2015 at 9:51 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> Sorry, but I'm afraid that high IQ people have just as many weird
> beliefs as other people. They are just better at thinking up
> self-justifying reasons.


### That doesn't seem to be the case. If weird means "sufficiently
contradicted by reasonable evidence",  then there is a strong correlation
between low IQ and weird beliefs, from sundry religions to beliefs in
ghosts, urban myths, harebrained get-rich-quick schemes and other madness
of crowds. Sure, smart people also believe stupid things but not as
commonly as the common folk.

Rafa?
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Wed May 20 01:11:26 2015
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Tue, 19 May 2015 21:11:26 -0400
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2fGP-5tzKmTK9M9udo3gYj0WW6eHUJtBR8pR2TvbyHrPg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2fGP-5tzKmTK9M9udo3gYj0WW6eHUJtBR8pR2TvbyHrPg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFh6q3JHRNDStODAjaRcS4jJmzz_24THsEr4r_L6ECew6w@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, May 12, 2015 at 10:55 AM, Dave Sill <sparge at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> Clearly meant to remind one of the Nazis. Wikipedia summarizes the dangers
> nicely:
>
> *"The main critique towards eugenics policies is that regardless of
> whether "negative" or "positive" policies are used, they are vulnerable to
> political abuse because the criteria of selection are determined by
> whichever group is in power. Furthermore, negative eugenics in particular
> is considered by many to be a violation of basic human rights, which
> include the right to reproduction."*
>

### The notion of basic human rights is a bucket into which leftoids throw
whatever they fancy, usually as a pretext to extract more resources from
workers and to raise their level of control over workers.

A basic right does not entail responsibilities, is not conferred by or
conditional on performance of duties. To say that a human has a basic right
to reproduce means that she cannot be punished for exercising it,
unconditionally. No money, no problem - but somebody will need to pay -
maybe her offspring will pay by going hungry, maybe a worker will be
deprived of his gains to feed them. Acknowledging reproduction as a basic
right is a bad idea.

Rafa?
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From pharos at gmail.com  Wed May 20 09:25:40 2015
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 20 May 2015 10:25:40 +0100
Subject: [ExI] any dispute?
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFgux1EL-nmYMV4xA_zDPs_9MvQX=K-BUzHXfMJhYq5UEQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbfVbh8JGESoPYxT79vFNpgSy8u8WmRhyPFVb1ckk1qNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <5551D501.3040903@libero.it>
 <CAL_armjhV-Uh==dfbO+gkUDmDEBCQ7wcMtx72LMoT3KUaYg5qA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFgux1EL-nmYMV4xA_zDPs_9MvQX=K-BUzHXfMJhYq5UEQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armj=Ryi3uaH_MQf1Mb5c60-tHM52XZ_V0MFi1_1j7w=8=A@mail.gmail.com>

On 20 May 2015 at 01:39, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
>
> On Tue, May 12, 2015 at 9:51 AM, BillK wrote:
>> Sorry, but I'm afraid that high IQ people have just as many weird
>> beliefs as other people. They are just better at thinking up
>> self-justifying reasons.
>
>
> ### That doesn't seem to be the case. If weird means "sufficiently
> contradicted by reasonable evidence",  then there is a strong correlation
> between low IQ and weird beliefs, from sundry religions to beliefs in
> ghosts, urban myths, harebrained get-rich-quick schemes and other madness of
> crowds. Sure, smart people also believe stupid things but not as commonly as
> the common folk.
>

Isn't that just because there are more low IQ people than high IQ people?

For every pseudo-science group there are high IQ people lecturing and
writing articles and many followers nodding in agreement.

If you look at the famous high IQ scientists and Nobel prize winners,
they usually also have some weird ideas outside their career
speciality.

Just like if at a cocktail party you get talking to a top lawyer or
surgeon, after a while he/she might mention that they believe in UFOs
or eat ugli fruit every day to live longer. (But don't show interest
or you will never get away from them!).   :)

BillK


From ipbrians at simplyweb.net  Wed May 20 14:24:13 2015
From: ipbrians at simplyweb.net (Ivor Peter Brians)
Date: Wed, 20 May 2015 07:24:13 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The End of Meaningful Work
In-Reply-To: <mailman.1.1432036801.21234.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.1.1432036801.21234.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <B1C2A295-7134-4ABD-8CE3-7B4BB4D8CB1B@simplyweb.net>

> On Tue, 19 May 2015 BillK wrote:
> 
> A world with few jobs? What are billions of humans going to do?
> 
> One obvious answer is to fight with each other. At least it's
> something to do that gives a sense of achievement to the survivors.
> Mass medication to tranquilise populations?
> The next generation are going to have to face some tricky problems.
> 
> BillK

Regarding the making of war if we have nothing else to do, 
yes that seems to be in our nature. And as advancing technology frees us and gives us new opportunities we will  have to move beyond much of our nature and self-direct our evolution.

Many of our current challenges reach back eventually to our evolutionary biological roots. Just one example; our capacity for war stems from our propensity to form groups (tribes) and to compete with others for scarce resources. This was just one of the strategies in DNA's arsenal which assured fitness and survival but obviously in today's world, it works against us.

Ivor





From danust2012 at gmail.com  Wed May 20 15:17:58 2015
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan)
Date: Wed, 20 May 2015 08:17:58 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Height a good predictor of lifetime income?
Message-ID: <003267C3-37A5-4EE8-9078-00688AC5327B@gmail.com>

http://asserttrue.blogspot.com/2015/05/height-income-and-inequality.html

Regards,

Dan
 Sample my Kindle books via:
http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/
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From spike66 at att.net  Wed May 20 17:05:28 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 20 May 2015 10:05:28 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The End of Meaningful Work
In-Reply-To: <B1C2A295-7134-4ABD-8CE3-7B4BB4D8CB1B@simplyweb.net>
References: <mailman.1.1432036801.21234.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <B1C2A295-7134-4ABD-8CE3-7B4BB4D8CB1B@simplyweb.net>
Message-ID: <012201d0931f$2ecf2120$8c6d6360$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of Ivor Peter Brians
Subject: Re: [ExI] The End of Meaningful Work

> On Tue, 19 May 2015 BillK wrote:
> 
>>... A world with few jobs? What are billions of humans going to do?
> One obvious answer is to fight with each other. ...> BillK

>...Regarding the making of war if we have nothing else to do, yes that
seems to be in our nature. And as advancing technology frees us and gives us
new opportunities we will  have to move beyond much of our nature and
self-direct our evolution...Ivor

_______________________________________________

So now we can be thankful for nukes.  They take all the fun and glory out of
warfare.  It takes most of the profit, because it doesn't really employ many
war-machine contractors.  It doesn't make for courageous heroes; all it
takes is one guy pushing a button and the rest is automated.  It destroys
the resources over which wars were fought in times past.  We can be honest
with ourselves enough to recognize that for those mostly spared from the
horrors of warfare (politicians ordering others to their deaths for
instance) there was plenty of profit in war.  We now have a US presidential
candidate who apparently profited mightily from war.

Nukes take most of that away.  They take the fun and profit, leaving only
horrifying mortality, destroyed culture and devastated radioactive
wastelands unlikely to be desired by anyone for generations.  Nobody wants
that.  Thank evolution for nukes, for they are the real peacemakers.

spike



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Wed May 20 22:56:56 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 20 May 2015 17:56:56 -0500
Subject: [ExI] words
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZFCAGXUKimLOLQj++PVCh32aP1y2qaGhYRXLk7pUp3VA@mail.gmail.com>

Spike - I am going to run this by you because I don't want to get into
trouble.  Is this flaming?  I am a bit more than upset by such a primitive
example of lack of social intelligence by Rafa.
---------------------------
A term was used in a derogatory sense by one of our members in a recent
post, 'leftoids',

I think that this is just the worst sort of overgeneralization -
stereotyping.  I think that this is not worthy of the intelligence of the
members of this group as I have observed.

I am a 'leftoid' but not far left.  For instance, I think that those East
Coast professors who think that banning hate speech is a good idea are
horribly wrong and have no understanding of our First Amendment.

Let's not put all of our 'leftoids' in one basket.  OK?

bill w
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Thu May 21 02:34:10 2015
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Wed, 20 May 2015 22:34:10 -0400
Subject: [ExI] words
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZFCAGXUKimLOLQj++PVCh32aP1y2qaGhYRXLk7pUp3VA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZFCAGXUKimLOLQj++PVCh32aP1y2qaGhYRXLk7pUp3VA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFiC7FxmQ95jDFbBSQ_OoqUvmpHKLuLbcCP7O8DwRj0sUA@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, May 20, 2015 at 6:56 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:

Spike - I am going to run this by you because I don't want to get into
> trouble.  Is this flaming?  I am a bit more than upset by such a primitive
> example of lack of social intelligence by Rafa.
> ---------------------------
> A term was used in a derogatory sense by one of our members in a recent
> post, 'leftoids',
>
> I think that this is just the worst sort of overgeneralization -
> stereotyping.  I think that this is not worthy of the intelligence of the
> members of this group as I have observed.
>

### Would you mind explaining how using the term "leftoid" is stereotyping?
Also, what's wrong with stereotyping? Is it a stereotype if it's true?

Rafa?
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu May 21 14:07:36 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 21 May 2015 09:07:36 -0500
Subject: [ExI] words
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFiC7FxmQ95jDFbBSQ_OoqUvmpHKLuLbcCP7O8DwRj0sUA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZFCAGXUKimLOLQj++PVCh32aP1y2qaGhYRXLk7pUp3VA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFiC7FxmQ95jDFbBSQ_OoqUvmpHKLuLbcCP7O8DwRj0sUA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEacj+Y7xbGBjpV=1iC+6UEmrdUPZ5BsEvrNrm5en1gPVw@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, May 20, 2015 at 9:34 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:

>
>
> On Wed, May 20, 2015 at 6:56 PM, William Flynn Wallace <
> foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Spike - I am going to run this by you because I don't want to get into
>> trouble.  Is this flaming?  I am a bit more than upset by such a primitive
>> example of lack of social intelligence by Rafa.
>> ---------------------------
>> A term was used in a derogatory sense by one of our members in a recent
>> post, 'leftoids',
>>
>> I think that this is just the worst sort of overgeneralization -
>> stereotyping.  I think that this is not worthy of the intelligence of the
>> members of this group as I have observed.
>>
>
> ### Would you mind explaining how using the term "leftoid" is
> stereotyping? Also, what's wrong with stereotyping? Is it a stereotype if
> it's true?
>
> Rafa?
>


?A stereotype by definition overgeneralizes, attributing characteristics to
an entire group that only apply to some of the group.  Thus a stereotype
cannot be true.

All blacks who drive Mercedes are not drug dealers - some are CPAs - and
people who point at them and assume they are crooks are stereotyping.

Would I as a leftist ever say "All those on the right believe...."?  Never
never never.

bill w?


>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Thu May 21 20:00:16 2015
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Thu, 21 May 2015 16:00:16 -0400
Subject: [ExI] words
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEacj+Y7xbGBjpV=1iC+6UEmrdUPZ5BsEvrNrm5en1gPVw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZFCAGXUKimLOLQj++PVCh32aP1y2qaGhYRXLk7pUp3VA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFiC7FxmQ95jDFbBSQ_OoqUvmpHKLuLbcCP7O8DwRj0sUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEacj+Y7xbGBjpV=1iC+6UEmrdUPZ5BsEvrNrm5en1gPVw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFhudAJ3oTucZPNNDXmrON=CROHaNBOnCzhZMi8CDrrRRA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, May 21, 2015 at 10:07 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com
> wrote:

>
>
> On Wed, May 20, 2015 at 9:34 PM, Rafal Smigrodzki <
> rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> On Wed, May 20, 2015 at 6:56 PM, William Flynn Wallace <
>> foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> Spike - I am going to run this by you because I don't want to get into
>>> trouble.  Is this flaming?  I am a bit more than upset by such a primitive
>>> example of lack of social intelligence by Rafa.
>>> ---------------------------
>>> A term was used in a derogatory sense by one of our members in a recent
>>> post, 'leftoids',
>>>
>>> I think that this is just the worst sort of overgeneralization -
>>> stereotyping.  I think that this is not worthy of the intelligence of the
>>> members of this group as I have observed.
>>>
>>
>> ### Would you mind explaining how using the term "leftoid" is
>> stereotyping? Also, what's wrong with stereotyping? Is it a stereotype if
>> it's true?
>>
>> Rafa?
>>
>
>
> ?A stereotype by definition overgeneralizes, attributing characteristics
> to an entire group that only apply to some of the group.  Thus a stereotype
> cannot be true.
>
> All blacks who drive Mercedes are not drug dealers - some are CPAs - and
> people who point at them and assume they are crooks are stereotyping.
>
> Would I as a leftist ever say "All those on the right believe...."?  Never
> never never.
>

### So, again, how is using the term "leftoid" stereotyping?

The absolute qualifier is not a part of the meaning of stereotype, at least
among persons of sufficient social intelligence. And most stereotypes I am
aware of are true, even if simplified.

Rafa?
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From pjmanney at gmail.com  Sun May 24 16:48:11 2015
From: pjmanney at gmail.com (PJ Manney)
Date: Sun, 24 May 2015 09:48:11 -0700
Subject: [ExI] World's first blockchain verified ebook autograph?
Message-ID: <CAJrtBE1-3NObNcbO95fnLhniOvRayjKr3rtaVPXUpmw5fJ8s_w@mail.gmail.com>

<https://www.facebook.com/groups/internetofmoney/832573053465172/?comment_id=832576040131540&notif_t=like#>

I believe my friend Russell Rukin and I have achieved a first: the first
blockchain verified digital autograph on an e-reader. I created a .txt note
on my Kindle, which I sent to Russell for him to put on his Kindle and then
deposited the same .txt file into the blockchain using proofofexistence.com.
<http://proofofexistence.com/> This means there is now a truly independent,
verifiable claim to my autograph to him, even though it's in a digital
medium. We cannot find proof anyone else has done this. Go Blockchain! I'm
curious as to your thoughts.

You can find a photo on my or his pages on Twitter, FB, G+, etc.

Thanks!

PJ
-- 
*PJ Manney*
310-869-3685
pjmanney at gmail.com
https://www.facebook.com/pjmanney
https://twitter.com/pjmanney
http://www.linkedin.com/in/pjmanney
https://plus.google.com/+PJManney
http://pj-manney.blogspot.com/
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From spike66 at att.net  Sun May 24 18:11:45 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 24 May 2015 11:11:45 -0700
Subject: [ExI] oy vey nash has perished
Message-ID: <03d701d0964d$1e3348b0$5a99da10$@att.net>

 

 

http://www.nj.com/middlesex/index.ssf/2015/05/famed_a_beautiful_mind_mathema
tician_wife_killed_in_taxi_crash_police_say.html

 

 

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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Mon May 25 03:06:34 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Sun, 24 May 2015 20:06:34 -0700
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy15TadepzKk6xJkFFTyguYYr8=AOMCL2S1c5Y4JC9pCKg@mail.gmail.com>

I ran across this intriguing Quora thread, which I thought might interest
the folks here...

http://www.quora.com/What-would-an-IQ-of-500-or-1000-look-like

I recently saw the film Limitless, which along with Flowers for Algernon,
and Lawnmower Man, is now a fave film of mine on intelligence enhancement.

I so badly want a big batch of those pills! lol


John  :  )
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Mon May 25 04:56:46 2015
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan)
Date: Sun, 24 May 2015 21:56:46 -0700
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy15TadepzKk6xJkFFTyguYYr8=AOMCL2S1c5Y4JC9pCKg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy15TadepzKk6xJkFFTyguYYr8=AOMCL2S1c5Y4JC9pCKg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <DCC759E4-5F04-451D-BD10-CC721B846E47@gmail.com>

On May 24, 2015, at 8:06 PM, John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> I ran across this intriguing Quora thread, which I thought might interest the folks here...
> 
> http://www.quora.com/What-would-an-IQ-of-500-or-1000-look-like
> 
> I recently saw the film Limitless, which along with Flowers for Algernon, and Lawnmower Man, is now a fave film of mine on intelligence enhancement.
> 
> I so badly want a big batch of those pills! lol
> 
> 
> John  :  )

I'd like to get a batch and pass them out to people on the street, maybe (presuming they're safe) dump them I'm the water supply. :)

Regards,

Dan
 Sample my Kindle books via:
http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/
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From jasonresch at gmail.com  Mon May 25 05:00:37 2015
From: jasonresch at gmail.com (Jason Resch)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 00:00:37 -0500
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy15TadepzKk6xJkFFTyguYYr8=AOMCL2S1c5Y4JC9pCKg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy15TadepzKk6xJkFFTyguYYr8=AOMCL2S1c5Y4JC9pCKg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>

Modern IQ scores are based on standards of deviation, so you would need to
factor in the range and rarity of human intelligence, which is probably
upper bounded by human biology. So to answer your question you need to see
how rare IQ's of 500 or 1000 are respectively. Assuming the IQ test is
defined where each standard deviation is 15, then an IQ of 145 is 3
standards of deviation above the mean, and accordingly the chance of
someone having an IQ of 145 or higher has a z-score of 3, which has a
probability of one in (according to the below calculator) 741.
https://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experiments/analysis/zCalc.html

The calculator breaks down above a z-score of 6, which has a probability of
1 in ~10 billion, corresponding to an IQ > 180. An IQ of 1,000 would have a
z-score of 26.667, and an IQ of 1000 would be a z-score of 60. So we must
ask, out of 10^20 or 10^30 naturally born humans how smart would that
smartest human out of those ~10^30 be?

Here's what something with an IQ of 2005 looks like:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gjcO0PTRxw :-)

Jason


On Sun, May 24, 2015 at 10:06 PM, John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> I ran across this intriguing Quora thread, which I thought might interest
> the folks here...
>
> http://www.quora.com/What-would-an-IQ-of-500-or-1000-look-like
>
> I recently saw the film Limitless, which along with Flowers for Algernon,
> and Lawnmower Man, is now a fave film of mine on intelligence enhancement.
>
> I so badly want a big batch of those pills! lol
>
>
> John  :  )
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Mon May 25 05:34:41 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Sun, 24 May 2015 22:34:41 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Australia develops world's most efficient solar panels
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy3r2RG8OQaM_txZbwzLEB2wMg2=rg29w+eq6rtETKUshQ@mail.gmail.com>

"Laboratory tests have shown the solar cell method can convert up to 46
percent of the sun?s energy into electricity. The new Australian technique
works with regular commercial PV panels under normal conditions, and could
potentially make solar plants more competitive with other energy sources,
such as fossil fuels."


http://rt.com/business/212383-australia-record-solar-energy/


John
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Mon May 25 05:45:47 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Sun, 24 May 2015 22:45:47 -0700
Subject: [ExI] India ends Russian space partnership and will land on the
	moon alone
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy3e06Kx3bpmMhhxczZ84QJxA1h3je7kDpHD6zYu7Jgskw@mail.gmail.com>

Has India's space program matured to where they can easily go it alone?  Or
have the Russian's simply lost their space mojo?


http://www.examiner.com/article/india-ends-russian-space-partnership-and-will-land-on-the-moon-alone?CID=examiner_alerts_article


John  :  )
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Mon May 25 06:15:06 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Sun, 24 May 2015 23:15:06 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Alternate Histories...
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy3LzgJajozVGJHKsPM-WAErhzDBK1KGodW9bbNi7HHLiA@mail.gmail.com>

An interesting list from Mental Floss, but they did not include the bone
chilling Draka novels by S.M. Sterling....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Domination

http://mentalfloss.com/article/54464/what-if-19-alternate-histories-imagining-very-different-world


John  :  )
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From giulio at gmail.com  Mon May 25 06:18:26 2015
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 08:18:26 +0200
Subject: [ExI] World's first blockchain verified ebook autograph?
In-Reply-To: <CAJrtBE1-3NObNcbO95fnLhniOvRayjKr3rtaVPXUpmw5fJ8s_w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJrtBE1-3NObNcbO95fnLhniOvRayjKr3rtaVPXUpmw5fJ8s_w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAKTCJyf8nk8nCvvfnFOYpwJUhULGDbZ9NP8C+aXM5jcO-h6a1A@mail.gmail.com>

PJ, this is super cool. By the way I started reading your book and
it's really a page turner, difficult to put down.

I am intrigued by your hint on Facebook that "the sequel, (ID)ENTITY
is all about the blockchain," could you say something more about that?

Best - G.

On Sun, May 24, 2015 at 6:48 PM, PJ Manney <pjmanney at gmail.com> wrote:
> I believe my friend Russell Rukin and I have achieved a first: the first
> blockchain verified digital autograph on an e-reader. I created a .txt note
> on my Kindle, which I sent to Russell for him to put on his Kindle and then
> deposited the same .txt file into the blockchain using proofofexistence.com.
> This means there is now a truly independent, verifiable claim to my
> autograph to him, even though it's in a digital medium. We cannot find proof
> anyone else has done this. Go Blockchain! I'm curious as to your thoughts.
>
> You can find a photo on my or his pages on Twitter, FB, G+, etc.
>
> Thanks!
>
> PJ
>
> --
> PJ Manney
> 310-869-3685
> pjmanney at gmail.com
> https://www.facebook.com/pjmanney
> https://twitter.com/pjmanney
> http://www.linkedin.com/in/pjmanney
> https://plus.google.com/+PJManney
> http://pj-manney.blogspot.com/
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>


From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Mon May 25 06:28:01 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Sun, 24 May 2015 23:28:01 -0700
Subject: [ExI] 11 year-old graduates college with 3 degrees
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy001XcteXuzEKhqxK9B+NmnaXccXXxDgAKsLAiWvOhNNw@mail.gmail.com>

An ambitious prodigy....  I suppose genetic engineering will in time allow
parents to select for a child with such precocious intelligence...


http://college.usatoday.com/2015/05/22/11-year-old-graduates-college-with-3-degrees/


John
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Mon May 25 06:37:42 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Sun, 24 May 2015 23:37:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The House Just Passed a Bill About Space Mining
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy3oWiNLrPpkvi4W66CKhxVdCi54XJjQFPau=A=A=u1vug@mail.gmail.com>

"This is how we know commercial space exploration is serious. The
opportunity here is so vast that businesses are demanding federal
protections for huge, floating objects they haven't even surveyed
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2015/05/22/the-house-just-passed-a-bill-about-space-mining-the-future-is-here/?tid=rssfeed#74944247>
 yet."


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2015/05/22/the-house-just-passed-a-bill-about-space-mining-the-future-is-here/?tid=rssfeed


John  :  )
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Mon May 25 06:41:16 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Sun, 24 May 2015 23:41:16 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Scientists turn adult human blood cells into neurons
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy28UONru=SOxZ4PL7DkgyyE04LimGi-N2-WiYGp7k6dJw@mail.gmail.com>

"Scientists can now directly convert adult human blood cells to both
central nervous system (brain and spinal cord) neurons as well as neurons
in the peripheral nervous system (rest of the body) that are responsible
for pain, temperature and itch perception. This means that how a person's
nervous system cells react and respond to stimuli, can be determined from
his blood."


http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150521120919.htm


John  :  )
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Mon May 25 06:57:10 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Sun, 24 May 2015 23:57:10 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The Beautiful Art that Helped Inspire Space Travel
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy3Jz2Aty=EzM-OmR1RQkr=UVyDCmc4JWvPtn1O1-djBhw@mail.gmail.com>

When I was in elementary school, I had a magical moment when I came upon
the classic slideshow films made by Disney and Werner Von Braun, about the
future of space travel.


http://gizmodo.com/the-beautiful-art-that-helped-inspire-space-travel-1704693253


John  :  )
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From atymes at gmail.com  Mon May 25 07:02:05 2015
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 00:02:05 -0700
Subject: [ExI] 11 year-old graduates college with 3 degrees
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy001XcteXuzEKhqxK9B+NmnaXccXXxDgAKsLAiWvOhNNw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy001XcteXuzEKhqxK9B+NmnaXccXXxDgAKsLAiWvOhNNw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNS1EYiWjtJ1Jq9FKkO5F7_ie3HmD0geYm=Fq-VMgzcSRA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, May 24, 2015 at 11:28 PM, John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>
wrote:

>
> An ambitious prodigy....  I suppose genetic engineering will in time allow
> parents to select for a child with such precocious intelligence...
>
>
>
> http://college.usatoday.com/2015/05/22/11-year-old-graduates-college-with-3-degrees/
>

1) Major asterisk next to this.  One of the three he got was in math, and
two in science (including one "math and general science"), despite not yet
having finished Calculus.  And these were just Associate's degrees.  Still
impressive, just not as much as it may seem at first.

2) What if we revamped and compressed the educational system such that this
level of learning became the norm, or at least much less unusual, without
need of genetic engineering?  (Or, of course, combined both approaches...)
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Mon May 25 08:45:45 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 01:45:45 -0700
Subject: [ExI] China, Russia, the U.S., and the Singularity
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy2kTnr-AteTaBABiQ0ry7-_LXZWsyd3g_6Jbrjk7H=riA@mail.gmail.com>

Being that it is Memorial Day in the United States, I thought I would post
my concerns about how a strong China, rapidly modernizing their military
forces, seems to be on a collision course with the U.S., in terms of
wanting to stake out a larger security/defense claim, then they probably
have a right to do, in terms of building a network of artificial island
ports and air fields.  And on top of that, China carries out a campaign of
very capable meat space and cyber espionage against the United States.


Meanwhile, Russia, under Putin's leadership, is engaged in a huge upgrade
of their own military forces.  And they are seeking a strong alliance with
China, to challenge U.S. global power.  Now people are wondering if we will
see a return to the bad old days of cold wars with Russia.  And when Putin
dies and his influence is gone, someone even more aggressive, with even
less good judgment, may take control of the nation.  A variety of scholars
compare his government to a mafia, in terms of governing style...


I worry that a Russian/Chinese alliance will cause the U.S. military
industrial complex to grow even more, and suck the life out of the economy,
with relatively weak results, due to all the incompetence/corruption in
regards to corporate contractors, military leaders, and politicians.  The
F-35 is a classic example of this problem.


I realize the U.S. and the world in general must certainly make room for a
resurgent Russia and powerhouse China.  But can the U.S. and others do it
without making the deadly mistakes of either appeasing them too much, or on
the other hand, being such hawks that they are unnecessarily antagonized to
the extent of actively seeking aggression against the West, where it might
otherwise have been avoid.


Many convergence technologies (nanotech, AI, robotics, genetic engineering,
etc.,...) will be fueled and funneled toward the goal of military
supremacy, by each of these nations, rather than for simply peaceful
endeavors.  And so I worry that future AI may look around at warlike
mercurial humans, and decide that we are disturbingly untrustworthy and
need to go...  Then there is the matter of humanity colonizing our solar
system, as well as others, but taking our political divisions and
war-making with us.   And once extreme life extension is developed, we
could get a generation of very anti-progressive leaders, in power for ages,
who would slow humanity's maturation.


John
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Mon May 25 08:53:07 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 01:53:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI] oy vey nash has perished
In-Reply-To: <03d701d0964d$1e3348b0$5a99da10$@att.net>
References: <03d701d0964d$1e3348b0$5a99da10$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy2akQCnvYm3UGFOmVCya=m+EHDzhBeFqTPdkbMYD+WCHw@mail.gmail.com>

Hopefully twenty years from now, with computer driven cars zipping around,
this will be a far less common occurrence ...

They lived long lives, but this is still a great tragedy!

John  :  (

On Sun, May 24, 2015 at 11:11 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
>
> http://www.nj.com/middlesex/index.ssf/2015/05/famed_a_beautiful_mind_mathematician_wife_killed_in_taxi_crash_police_say.html
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From anders at aleph.se  Mon May 25 09:06:48 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 11:06:48 +0200
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>


Jason Resch <jasonresch at gmail.com>?



The calculator breaks down above a z-score of 6, which has a probability of 1 in ~10 billion, corresponding to an IQ > 180. An IQ of 1,000 would have a z-score of 26.667, and an IQ of 1000 would be a z-score of 60. So we must ask, out of 10^20 or 10^30 naturally born humans how smart would that smartest human out of those ~10^30 be?

A while ago I dug up an approximate formula that is applicable:

http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2009/09/ten_sigma_numerics_and_finance.html
So z=27 gives one chance in 10^160. z=60 is way outside my numerical precision when calculated straight, and the probability is around one in 10^199 when I just take the log of the equation. That is essentially one out of every particle that has ever or will ever existed in the observable universe.

In the end, talking about IQ 500 is almost as confused as talking about doubling IQs: this is not what the scale is about. It is a bit like discussing how loud the big bang was (although, see?https://telescoper.wordpress.com/2009/04/26/how-loud-was-the-big-bang/ )


I think a better approach would be to consider how an animal would perceive human intelligence. We do incomprehensible or arbitrary things - generate some odd sounds, move stuff about, handle objects - and then big outcomes occur for often no obvious reason - food, images or rooms appear, other humans just do things as if they knew what we were thinking. Sometimes the point becomes somewhat clear far in retrospect, but most of the time there is no discernible link. And of course, many of the things that humans worry or enthuse about are things the animals simply do not get - why would a human get sad over a piece of paper with scribbles on?

So I would expect superintelligences to be like this. They do stuff, stuff happens, and sometimes we can see that some desire and goal ?seems to have been met. If they are human-derived we can sometimes see the similar drives, but also totally alien interests and drives. In many ways they would be confusing and boring, except when they decide to play with us.?


Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Mon May 25 11:36:41 2015
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 07:36:41 -0400
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
References: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
Message-ID: <201505251212.t4PCCseB019154@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

Jason wrote:

>The calculator breaks down above a z-score of 6, 
>which has a probability of 1 in ~10 billion, 
>corresponding to an IQ > 180. An IQ of 1,000 
>would have a z-score of 26.667, and an IQ of 
>1000 would be a z-score of 60. So we must ask, 
>out of 10^20 or 10^30 naturally born humans how 
>smart would that smartest human out of those ~10^30 be?

If we're talking 10^30 actual members of our 
current species, because we managed to spread 
through the universe or multiverse, I see two 
choices, that are not mutually exclusive. They 
might already at the maximum our current biology 
is capable of by itself, which might make 1 in 
10^30 no different than 1 in 10^12. Or there 
might be unknown abilities that appear in genetic 
permutations that have never happened yet, whose 
nature we have to admit we have no clue about.

It might be helpful to think about the flip 
question. IQ goes in both directions. If the 
curve is symmetrical?which it may not be?for 
every person at +n standard deviations, there's 
someone at -n. Today, is the 1-in-a-billion 
(SD15) IQ of 10 distinguishable from IQ 15 (1 in 
137M)? It's obvious when we look at the lowest 
levels today that there's a point below which the 
biology can't go. And giving those two people 
different IQ numbers is pointless.

Anders replied:

>I think a better approach would be to consider 
>how an animal would perceive human intelligence. 
>We do incomprehensible or arbitrary things - 
>generate some odd sounds, move stuff about, 
>handle objects - and then big outcomes occur for 
>often no obvious reason - food, images or rooms 
>appear, other humans just do things as if they 
>knew what we were thinking. Sometimes the point 
>becomes somewhat clear far in retrospect, but 
>most of the time there is no discernible link. 
>And of course, many of the things that humans 
>worry or enthuse about are things the animals 
>simply do not get - why would a human get sad 
>over a piece of paper with scribbles on?
>
>So I would expect superintelligences to be like 
>this. They do stuff, stuff happens, and 
>sometimes we can see that some desire and 
>goal  seems to have been met. If they are 
>human-derived we can sometimes see the similar 
>drives, but also totally alien interests and 
>drives. In many ways they would be confusing and 
>boring, except when they decide to play with us.

An interesting question falls out: Why do we 
describe them as superintelligences? Any alien 
species might be incomprehensible or seem 
arbitrary in its actions to us. Super- is a 
judgment. As is denying super. If we're wowed by 
what a human does, we might label her super. Or 
in our mystification at what she did, we might label her retarded or crazy.

In an extropian context, I think we use 
superintelligence to denote those 
incomprehensible minds that we hope or fear can 
see and leverage what we cannot, in ways that 
might have rapid, extreme consequences for us. 
It's the impact on us that draws our attention, 
that distinguishes them from merely weird.


-- David.




From spike66 at att.net  Mon May 25 14:43:15 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 07:43:15 -0700
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <201505251212.t4PCCseB019154@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
 <201505251212.t4PCCseB019154@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <009f01d096f9$25dc6bd0$71954370$@att.net>


Anders replied:

>I think a better approach would be to consider how an animal would 
>perceive human intelligence.
>We do incomprehensible or arbitrary things - ...-- David.
______________________________________________

This has been an interesting fun exercise, since BillW made a comment months
ago, raising a question of whether dogs reason.  Anyone who had or has a dog
does not ask that question, for we know that dogs do reason, some better
than others.  I have often wondered what dogs think of humans and how we can
apply the insights to how we would relate to another intelligent species or
AI.

>From a dog's point of view, humans can make all kinds of magic happen,
perhaps the most important: making appear an endless supply of dog food.
The humans can solve so many problems, but we cannot manage what every dog
can do: identify people and beasts by sniffing them.

Being fed every day from cans, domestic dogs soon lose the instincts to hunt
in packs and survive in the wild.

Imagine an advanced AI which figures out how to do a lot of things we still
haven't mastered, but still lacks some basic skill common to nearly all
humans.  They want to keep the humans as pets, to do for them something
analogous to what dogs do for humans.  Long before the software becomes AI
(in any sense) it takes over some basic tasks.  Humans no longer need to
master those tasks, so we (like domestic dogs) soon lose the collective
ability.  I see evidence of collective ability slipping away everywhere.

spike



From spike66 at att.net  Mon May 25 14:55:24 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 07:55:24 -0700
Subject: [ExI] oy vey nash has perished
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy2akQCnvYm3UGFOmVCya=m+EHDzhBeFqTPdkbMYD+WCHw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <03d701d0964d$1e3348b0$5a99da10$@att.net>
 <CAGSKFy2akQCnvYm3UGFOmVCya=m+EHDzhBeFqTPdkbMYD+WCHw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00a001d096fa$d77eb4a0$867c1de0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Grigg
Sent: Monday, May 25, 2015 1:53 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] oy vey nash has perished

 

Hopefully twenty years from now, with computer driven cars zipping around, this will be a far less common occurrence ...   John  :  (  

 

 

Ja.  This article sounds promising:  

 

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_28091830/self-driving-car-accidents-3-google-cars-1

 

I see that Google is preparing a lottery to allow a number of its cars to be leased by locals.  I will sign up for a chance at one as soon as I get any details.

 

spike

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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Mon May 25 15:17:44 2015
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 08:17:44 -0700
Subject: [ExI] This power satellite video shown at the ISDC
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB7PYbMyfcwwn7vm_xMefC2RY+bRryUZgQXHqmQYy9=bWQ@mail.gmail.com>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-Lrj35HcbQ&feature=youtu.be

3000 of these could entirely replace three cubic miles of oil
(equivalent) of fossil fuel the human race uses each year. By the
early 2030s if we got on it soon.

It didn't win the animation contest.  An animation by a Chinese team
backed by the government did.

Keith


From tara at taramayastales.com  Mon May 25 15:08:18 2015
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 08:08:18 -0700
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <009f01d096f9$25dc6bd0$71954370$@att.net>
References: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
 <201505251212.t4PCCseB019154@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <009f01d096f9$25dc6bd0$71954370$@att.net>
Message-ID: <9A2FE581-A19F-45B3-905B-B56C979F9A36@taramayastales.com>

Well, I don?t know about you, but I?ve already lost the ability to hunt wild food in packs. 

Tara Maya
Blog  |  Twitter  |  Facebook  |  Amazon  |  Goodreads



> On May 25, 2015, at 7:43 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> 
> 
> Anders replied:
> 
>> I think a better approach would be to consider how an animal would 
>> perceive human intelligence.
>> We do incomprehensible or arbitrary things - ...-- David.
> ______________________________________________
> 
> This has been an interesting fun exercise, since BillW made a comment months
> ago, raising a question of whether dogs reason.  Anyone who had or has a dog
> does not ask that question, for we know that dogs do reason, some better
> than others.  I have often wondered what dogs think of humans and how we can
> apply the insights to how we would relate to another intelligent species or
> AI.
> 
> From a dog's point of view, humans can make all kinds of magic happen,
> perhaps the most important: making appear an endless supply of dog food.
> The humans can solve so many problems, but we cannot manage what every dog
> can do: identify people and beasts by sniffing them.
> 
> Being fed every day from cans, domestic dogs soon lose the instincts to hunt
> in packs and survive in the wild.
> 
> Imagine an advanced AI which figures out how to do a lot of things we still
> haven't mastered, but still lacks some basic skill common to nearly all
> humans.  They want to keep the humans as pets, to do for them something
> analogous to what dogs do for humans.  Long before the software becomes AI
> (in any sense) it takes over some basic tasks.  Humans no longer need to
> master those tasks, so we (like domestic dogs) soon lose the collective
> ability.  I see evidence of collective ability slipping away everywhere.
> 
> spike
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat




From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon May 25 15:26:20 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 10:26:20 -0500
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <009f01d096f9$25dc6bd0$71954370$@att.net>
References: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
 <201505251212.t4PCCseB019154@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <009f01d096f9$25dc6bd0$71954370$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZdAEKiCZMozdUQDSN55jbEVMqWGbeaBQY53y2PYo+Fxw@mail.gmail.com>

??Being fed every day from cans, domestic dogs soon lose the instincts to
hunt in packs and survive in the wild.?  anders


?This does not square with my definition of an instinct.  Of course, that
poor term has been used and abused, describing everything from totally
innate behaviors, like nest-building, to totally learned behavior, like
actions at a tennis net (she has great net instincts).  So I don't know
what sense Anders is using the term in.

I don't know that dogs have lost anything by being domesticated.  I'd like
to see some data.  There are wild dog packs all over the earth, so if
anyone has studied them surely there are some data on what if anything they
have lost.

>From learning studies I've read, there is no such thing as extinction -
reducing a learned behavior to zero.  That would mean that subjects'
attempts to relearn the behavior take just as long as it did to learn it in
the first place.  It takes brain damage to totally unlearn a behavior.
Otherwise it is just suppressed and can be relearned, perhaps very readily.

I have no idea how long it takes for evolution to get rid of an unlearned
instinct.

bill w
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From mbb386 at main.nc.us  Mon May 25 16:39:44 2015
From: mbb386 at main.nc.us (MB)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 12:39:44 -0400
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZdAEKiCZMozdUQDSN55jbEVMqWGbeaBQY53y2PYo+Fxw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
 <201505251212.t4PCCseB019154@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <009f01d096f9$25dc6bd0$71954370$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEZdAEKiCZMozdUQDSN55jbEVMqWGbeaBQY53y2PYo+Fxw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <4811ad13c13b72713c51cf8939aad40a.squirrel@www.main.nc.us>



> ??Being fed every day from cans, domestic dogs soon lose
> the instincts to
> hunt in packs and survive in the wild.?  anders
>
>

I do not understand this.  Feral dogs will form packs and
they can be very dangerous, they hunt as a group and will
easily attack and kill smaller animals - like small
children or domestic livestock.

| Feral:
| Existing in a wild or untamed state, either naturally or
| having returned to such a state from domestication.
| (The American Heritage? Science Dictionary)

Regards,
MB




From spike66 at att.net  Mon May 25 16:46:38 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 09:46:38 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The Beautiful Art that Helped Inspire Space Travel
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy3Jz2Aty=EzM-OmR1RQkr=UVyDCmc4JWvPtn1O1-djBhw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy3Jz2Aty=EzM-OmR1RQkr=UVyDCmc4JWvPtn1O1-djBhw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <011f01d0970a$6187eef0$2497ccd0$@att.net>

 

 

>? On Behalf Of John Grigg
Subject: [ExI] The Beautiful Art that Helped Inspire Space Travel

 

>?When I was in elementary school, I had a magical moment when I came upon the classic slideshow films made by Disney and Werner Von Braun, about the future of space travel.  



http://gizmodo.com/the-beautiful-art-that-helped-inspire-space-travel-1704693253



John  :  )

 

 

I remember seeing these everywhere when I was a child.  I was lucky to grow up in Spaceport USA, where a lot of the space workers lived.  In the 60s we were really turned on by these kinds of pictures.  A local McDonalds down on US1 was decorated with these Bonestell images.

 

spike

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From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Mon May 25 17:55:01 2015
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 13:55:01 -0400
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <009f01d096f9$25dc6bd0$71954370$@att.net>
References: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
 <201505251212.t4PCCseB019154@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <009f01d096f9$25dc6bd0$71954370$@att.net>
Message-ID: <201505251755.t4PHtDrB010941@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

Spike wrote:

>perhaps the most important: making appear an endless supply of dog food.
>The humans can solve so many problems, but we cannot manage what every dog
>can do: identify people and beasts by sniffing them.
>
>Being fed every day from cans, domestic dogs soon lose the instincts to hunt
>in packs and survive in the wild.
>
>Imagine an advanced AI which figures out how to do a lot of things we still
>haven't mastered, but still lacks some basic skill common to nearly all
>humans.  They want to keep the humans as pets, to do for them something
>analogous to what dogs do for humans.  Long before the software becomes AI
>(in any sense) it takes over some basic tasks.  Humans no longer need to
>master those tasks, so we (like domestic dogs) soon lose the collective
>ability.  I see evidence of collective ability slipping away everywhere.

Dogs are our partners. Family, in a way that other species aren't. A 
dog follows a gaze or pointed finger where a chimp doesn't.

I like the theory that partnering with dogs led to our becoming 
human. When we could rely on their sense of smell, we no longer 
needed the neural circuitry other species have. It was available to 
be re-purposed for increasing intelligence.

(I'm not sure how good the evidence is but if it's false, I'll still 
want to pretend it's true. Dogs are family.)

We often do let dogs' abilities slip away. But it's wonderful seeing 
a dog's joy and apparent pride at working.

I do not hope that we become AIs' beloved pets. I'd be fine with our 
becoming their symbiotic partners. Whether as senior, junior, or peers TBD.


-- David.



From atymes at gmail.com  Mon May 25 18:37:42 2015
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 11:37:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The House Just Passed a Bill About Space Mining
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy3oWiNLrPpkvi4W66CKhxVdCi54XJjQFPau=A=A=u1vug@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy3oWiNLrPpkvi4W66CKhxVdCi54XJjQFPau=A=A=u1vug@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNS0YV9zZNJ9UVoN4-kH+_mc9XkD5isjrG7bVTU7RBUyWQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, May 24, 2015 at 11:37 PM, John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> "This is how we know commercial space exploration is serious. The
> opportunity here is so vast that businesses are demanding federal
> protections for huge, floating objects they haven't even surveyed
> <http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2015/05/22/the-house-just-passed-a-bill-about-space-mining-the-future-is-here/?tid=rssfeed#74944247>
>  yet."
>
>
>
> http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2015/05/22/the-house-just-passed-a-bill-about-space-mining-the-future-is-here/?tid=rssfeed
>

Problem is, there isn't really a "reading" of the Outer Space Treaty that
allows this.  Recognizing private claims is "national appropriation" by the
nation that recognizes them, unless all signatories recognize said claims -
but none other than the US are likely to do so; certainly, the majority
(who have no practical way to stake their own private claims) will not.
This is flat-out trumped by the OST.

That said, if it signals that the US will at least not enforce against
private claims, or if it applies to portions of "celestial bodies" (to use
the OST's language) that are returned to Earth (and thus stop being
celestial bodies; simultaneously, this is about the time they acquire
actual market value, until the day when people start buying stuff that is
in orbit - which is a long way away), that portion would be a good step
forward.
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From spike66 at att.net  Mon May 25 20:00:40 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 13:00:40 -0700
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <201505251755.t4PHtDrB010941@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
 <201505251212.t4PCCseB019154@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <009f01d096f9$25dc6bd0$71954370$@att.net>
 <201505251755.t4PHtDrB010941@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <01f101d09725$7ce15270$76a3f750$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of David Lubkin
Subject: Re: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?

Spike wrote:

>>...perhaps the most important: making appear an endless supply of dog
food.
>The humans can solve so many problems, but we cannot manage what every 
>dog can do: identify people and beasts by sniffing them....

>...Dogs are our partners. Family, in a way that other species aren't. A dog
follows a gaze or pointed finger where a chimp doesn't...

An interesting example is this.  An intriguing explanation for this is that
dogs are more aware they are dependent on humans, or for whatever reason
they seem to like us more.  Chimps in captivity seem to have an attitude.
They don't really make good zoo animals in general because they seem to come
across as having a vague contempt for their nearest primate relatives.  They
don't (in general) seem to like to interact with us.  I had this pointed out
to me when I used the expression "a trained chimp could do this."  Turns out
it is damn hard to train a chimp, not because they aren't smart enough, but
because they don't like playing our games, and they seem aware that they
have resources to get what they want without us.

Part of the difference between chimps and dogs might be in the breeding:
thousands of generations we have chosen the best companion dogs and bred
them.  If we took wolf pups and domesticated them, it would be easy to
imagine they wouldn't have the people-friendly attitude domestic dogs have,
even the second generation.


>...I like the theory that partnering with dogs led to our becoming human.
When we could rely on their sense of smell, we no longer needed the neural
circuitry other species have. It was available to be re-purposed for
increasing intelligence...

That is a cool theory indeed, food for thought.

>...(I'm not sure how good the evidence is but if it's false, I'll still
want to pretend it's true. Dogs are family.)...

Ja, such good sports are they.

>...We often do let dogs' abilities slip away. But it's wonderful seeing a
dog's joy and apparent pride at working...

Ja, and it's fun to see what each species considers work.  I had some
friends with a sheepdog.  We were out in the back yard at a picnic.  He kept
walking around the perimeter of the crowd, bumping and nudging us.  It was a
big dog, so it couldn't be ignored.  It was a puzzling behavior until his
owner explained that he was herding us, according to instinctive internal
commands that even he didn't understand, but obeyed just the same.  He was
keeping his flock of humans together, in order to keep us safe.

Dogs are our friends.  I do hope the symbiosis did somehow impact human
evolution.

>...I do not hope that we become AIs' beloved pets. I'd be fine with our
becoming their symbiotic partners. Whether as senior, junior, or peers TBD.
-- David.

_______________________________________________

I hear there are DARPA robot Olympics coming up.  This should be fun.

spike




From anders at aleph.se  Mon May 25 21:31:37 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 23:31:37 +0200
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <201505251212.t4PCCseB019154@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <2364646725-6054@secure.ericade.net>


David Lubkin <lubkin at unreasonable.com>:
An interesting question falls out: Why do we  
describe them as superintelligences? Any alien  
species might be incomprehensible or seem  
arbitrary in its actions to us. Super- is a  
judgment.


Yes. We need to see that their ability to reach their goals is vastly superior to ours in order to ascribe superintelligence to them. This is context- and goal-dependent. An alien flopping around in gas giant hurricanes might actually achieve very deep fluid dynamic goals, but we cannot understand them so we might just as well label its behaviour incomprehensible or arbitrary. The transhuman that habitually taps her fingers and clacks her teeth (vide Peter Watts "Echopraxia") may just look like she has an annoying personality quirk... until much later, when the full extent of the plan becomes visible and we suddenly see a very smart mind.?


The problem is that sometimes it is impossible to tell what is just weird and what is smart (e.g. the bicamerals in Echopraxia - puppet masters or puppets?) Again, I think one can prove undecidability for this problem - some code can generate smart solutions that only become visible arbitrarily far into the future.?



In an extropian context, I think we use  
superintelligence to denote those  
incomprehensible minds that we hope or fear can  
see and leverage what we cannot, in ways that  
might have rapid, extreme consequences for us.  
It's the impact on us that draws our attention,  
that distinguishes them from merely weird. 


No, I think you are describing super-powerful minds. Power is the ability to effect change, but it does not have to be smart in order to do a lot - a supernova or financial crash have extreme consequences, yet the nonlinearities guiding them are not that smart in any sense. Goal-directed smart entities can effect change in ways that are far harder to avoid since they are subtle, and they leverage these subtle things to get unexpected big effects at the end of long causal chains or through apparently low-probability events.?


Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From pharos at gmail.com  Mon May 25 21:31:56 2015
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 22:31:56 +0100
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <01f101d09725$7ce15270$76a3f750$@att.net>
References: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
 <201505251212.t4PCCseB019154@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <009f01d096f9$25dc6bd0$71954370$@att.net>
 <201505251755.t4PHtDrB010941@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <01f101d09725$7ce15270$76a3f750$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armja4kROHN8gSGg9UBatcNsWxzJ27aKHk-7zh-EiWeBboQ@mail.gmail.com>

On 25 May 2015 at 21:00, spike  wrote:
<snip>
> Dogs are our friends.  I do hope the symbiosis did somehow impact human
> evolution.
>


It seems that early humans and wolves were both pack hunters, roaming
the same areas and were in contact / competition for many generations.
Then they realised that co-operation benefited both groups.
And selective breeding continued the process. So they did affect each other.

Once humans settled down, they continued domesticating other animals
as well. There is discussion about the extent to which early humans
saw animals as live tools, or food, or companions.

The idea of dogs being lovable companions may be a modern luxury. In
primitive societies dogs are treated more like tools, to be used and
discarded when not required. Many nations consume dogs as food. As
another example, in the UK racing greyhounds have a short life after
they stop racing.

BillK


From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Mon May 25 21:42:32 2015
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 17:42:32 -0400
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy15TadepzKk6xJkFFTyguYYr8=AOMCL2S1c5Y4JC9pCKg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPdwydxTxLnOTwzDmktAs6NDAeO+j77aNqxDjW2MZymyxQ@mail.gmail.com>

What are the IQ of intelligent animals?  This would give you some point of
reference.

The most intelligent animals, such as some chimpanzees, bonobos, parrots,
and dolphins, are in this range. Bonobo or chimpanzee I.Q. scores are
sometimes even quoted as high as 80 or 90, but those are childhood age-peer
scores that correspond to adult I.Q.'s of only just over 40.

http://www.paulcooijmans.com/intelligence/iq_ranges.html



On Mon, May 25, 2015 at 1:00 AM, Jason Resch <jasonresch at gmail.com> wrote:

> Modern IQ scores are based on standards of deviation, so you would need to
> factor in the range and rarity of human intelligence, which is probably
> upper bounded by human biology. So to answer your question you need to see
> how rare IQ's of 500 or 1000 are respectively. Assuming the IQ test is
> defined where each standard deviation is 15, then an IQ of 145 is 3
> standards of deviation above the mean, and accordingly the chance of
> someone having an IQ of 145 or higher has a z-score of 3, which has a
> probability of one in (according to the below calculator) 741.
> https://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experiments/analysis/zCalc.html
>
> The calculator breaks down above a z-score of 6, which has a probability
> of 1 in ~10 billion, corresponding to an IQ > 180. An IQ of 1,000 would
> have a z-score of 26.667, and an IQ of 1000 would be a z-score of 60. So we
> must ask, out of 10^20 or 10^30 naturally born humans how smart would that
> smartest human out of those ~10^30 be?
>
> Here's what something with an IQ of 2005 looks like:
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gjcO0PTRxw :-)
>
> Jason
>
>
> On Sun, May 24, 2015 at 10:06 PM, John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> I ran across this intriguing Quora thread, which I thought might interest
>> the folks here...
>>
>> http://www.quora.com/What-would-an-IQ-of-500-or-1000-look-like
>>
>> I recently saw the film Limitless, which along with Flowers for Algernon,
>> and Lawnmower Man, is now a fave film of mine on intelligence enhancement.
>>
>> I so badly want a big batch of those pills! lol
>>
>>
>> John  :  )
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Tue May 26 01:20:08 2015
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 21:20:08 -0400
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <9A2FE581-A19F-45B3-905B-B56C979F9A36@taramayastales.com>
References: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
 <201505251212.t4PCCseB019154@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
 <009f01d096f9$25dc6bd0$71954370$@att.net>
 <9A2FE581-A19F-45B3-905B-B56C979F9A36@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFjQcYYo-uTD1LCBjwP5MQPOwLPT+jF8aEBeSACGnnE=Bg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, May 25, 2015 at 11:08 AM, Tara Maya <tara at taramayastales.com> wrote:
> Well, I don?t know about you, but I?ve already lost the ability to hunt wild food in packs.
>

### I never needed a pack, I am lone wolf....

AOOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Tue May 26 01:51:46 2015
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 21:51:46 -0400
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
References: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFi-s=ej4zs4iDWZtReTNuYHEyBzQKcp=jEZMneAT=X9+Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, May 25, 2015 at 5:06 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
>
> In the end, talking about IQ 500 is almost as confused as talking about
> doubling IQs: this is not what the scale is about. It is a bit like
> discussing how loud the big bang was (although, see
> https://telescoper.wordpress.com/2009/04/26/how-loud-was-the-big-bang/ )

### Indeed, and this becomes obvious once we remember that IQ is not a
measure of intelligence but a measure of rarity. The measure of
intelligence is the raw score on an intelligence test, and of course
there are many ways of constructing a test in order to achieve
predictive power for different purposes. An IQ of 130 doesn't mean an
intelligence 30% higher than average but rather having an abundance of
2%. Using a properly constructed, i.e. efficient test, the raw scores
of a IQ500 person would have to be of course higher than the score of
a mere IQ400 one but only as much as needed to achieve statistical
discrimination within the continuum of scores mapping in this
interval. It could mean than the IQ 500 person would be in terms of
raw performance only somewhat better than Ms vos Savant. This is all
assuming a non-truncated normal distribution of intelligence.

An interesting question arises: a test capable of discriminating the
tails of a normal distribution in a population of 10^30 humans would
have to have incredibly tight measurement errors to be valid, i.e. to
prevent random fluctuations in scores from throwing up an IQ500 result
due to luck in answering questions. This means you would need to have
many more test items than in a regular IQ test, which may be validated
only up to an IQ of 180 or thereabouts.

So it could mean that many of the 10^30 humans would have to spend
weeks on this mega-IQ test before the smartest of them all would be
announced to the pan-galactic audience.

Rafa?



From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Tue May 26 02:51:39 2015
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 22:51:39 -0400
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFi-s=ej4zs4iDWZtReTNuYHEyBzQKcp=jEZMneAT=X9+Q@mail.g
 mail.com>
References: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
 <CAAc1gFi-s=ej4zs4iDWZtReTNuYHEyBzQKcp=jEZMneAT=X9+Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <201505260251.t4Q2pqq7007038@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

Rafal wrote:

>An interesting question arises: a test capable 
>of discriminating the tails of a normal 
>distribution in a population of 10^30 humans 
>would have to have incredibly tight measurement 
>errors to be valid, i.e. to prevent random 
>fluctuations in scores from throwing up an IQ500 
>result due to luck in answering questions. This 
>means you would need to have many more test 
>items than in a regular IQ test, which may be 
>validated only up to an IQ of 180 or 
>thereabouts. So it could mean that many of the 
>10^30 humans would have to spend weeks on this 
>mega-IQ test before the smartest of them all 
>would be announced to the pan-galactic audience.

Your presumption is that IQ needs to be 
determined through answering a test. There are 
several dozen physical measurements that 
correlate with IQ, e.g., nerve conductive 
velocity, myelin sheathing, etc. We cannot 
directly measure intelligence reliably *yet*. But 
it's not clear there's an inherent reason why we 
couldn't. (And there are also simple subtests of 
regular IQ tests that are good first 
approximations of IQ, like reverse digit span: 
Given a sequence of n digits presented to you one 
per second, repeat the sequence in reverse order.)

Perhaps these measures would supplant traditional 
tests altogether. Perhaps they'd need to be 
normed with test subjects who took your 
?ber-test. (There's already a Mega Test.) Perhaps 
we'd give the ?ber-test to an overclocked upload 
of the human, for while-you-wait service.

Of course, all this is species-specific. It'd be 
interesting to develop a test that works well 
both for human subjects and for non-human 
subjects with different physical limitations than 
we have, for the pan-galactic, all-species, mental olympics.


-- David.




From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Tue May 26 07:59:50 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Tue, 26 May 2015 00:59:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] This power satellite video shown at the ISDC
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB7PYbMyfcwwn7vm_xMefC2RY+bRryUZgQXHqmQYy9=bWQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB7PYbMyfcwwn7vm_xMefC2RY+bRryUZgQXHqmQYy9=bWQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy3iWYsAiWf1O8e8XJ_E5vQ01W0dthHCC7Ft7gLYCUo-fQ@mail.gmail.com>

But what would the costs be?  And how long would it take?  I realize that
China has deep pockets...


John

On Mon, May 25, 2015 at 8:17 AM, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com>
wrote:

> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-Lrj35HcbQ&feature=youtu.be
>
> 3000 of these could entirely replace three cubic miles of oil
> (equivalent) of fossil fuel the human race uses each year. By the
> early 2030s if we got on it soon.
>
> It didn't win the animation contest.  An animation by a Chinese team
> backed by the government did.
>
> Keith
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From mrjones2020 at gmail.com  Tue May 26 10:08:18 2015
From: mrjones2020 at gmail.com (J.R. Jones)
Date: Tue, 26 May 2015 10:08:18 +0000
Subject: [ExI] This power satellite video shown at the ISDC
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy3iWYsAiWf1O8e8XJ_E5vQ01W0dthHCC7Ft7gLYCUo-fQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB7PYbMyfcwwn7vm_xMefC2RY+bRryUZgQXHqmQYy9=bWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAGSKFy3iWYsAiWf1O8e8XJ_E5vQ01W0dthHCC7Ft7gLYCUo-fQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CADDVf2+jCd1G_h4DJQ3DEXqpWCZRxEYZGSTiBiA4SEqJYjv-yg@mail.gmail.com>

I never understood this whole "What's the cost... It's too expensive"
routine.
Isn't the cost of NOT doing it, economic (and likely human) suicide?

We've essentially spent the last 7+ decades bombing each other into
smithereens, countless trillions... Over energy.

Renewables, space based or not, must be cheaper. Nevermind health and
ecological costs.

On Tue, May 26, 2015, 4:01 AM John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> But what would the costs be?  And how long would it take?  I realize that
> China has deep pockets...
>
>
> John
>
> On Mon, May 25, 2015 at 8:17 AM, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-Lrj35HcbQ&feature=youtu.be
>>
>> 3000 of these could entirely replace three cubic miles of oil
>> (equivalent) of fossil fuel the human race uses each year. By the
>> early 2030s if we got on it soon.
>>
>> It didn't win the animation contest.  An animation by a Chinese team
>> backed by the government did.
>>
>> Keith
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From deimtee at optusnet.com.au  Tue May 26 10:26:08 2015
From: deimtee at optusnet.com.au (david)
Date: Tue, 26 May 2015 20:26:08 +1000
Subject: [ExI] This power satellite video shown at the ISDC
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy3iWYsAiWf1O8e8XJ_E5vQ01W0dthHCC7Ft7gLYCUo-fQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB7PYbMyfcwwn7vm_xMefC2RY+bRryUZgQXHqmQYy9=bWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAGSKFy3iWYsAiWf1O8e8XJ_E5vQ01W0dthHCC7Ft7gLYCUo-fQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20150526202608.5de0c7cd@JARRAH>

On Tue, 26 May 2015 00:59:50 -0700
John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com> wrote:

> But what would the costs be?  And how long would it take?  I realize that
> China has deep pockets...
> 
> 
> John
> 
> On Mon, May 25, 2015 at 8:17 AM, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com>
> wrote:
> 
> > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-Lrj35HcbQ&feature=youtu.be
> >
> > 3000 of these could entirely replace three cubic miles of oil
> > (equivalent) of fossil fuel the human race uses each year. By the
> > early 2030s if we got on it soon.
> >
> > It didn't win the animation contest.  An animation by a Chinese team
> > backed by the government did.
> >
> > Keith
> > _______________________________________________
> > extropy-chat mailing list
> > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
> >

As much as I like the idea of massive space development, I think that cheap
batteries and local solar are going to kill this. 

Here in Australia it's already heading that way. Solar cells on rooftops are
very common, and installations are continuing. 
The power companies dropped the feed-in tariff well below even off-peak power.
Now they are complaining that instead of feed-in solar, people are diverting
it to non-time-sensitive uses and load-shifting.

Batteries that allow people to go completely off-grid even in suburbia are on
the way. This leaves existing power suppliers competing for a shrinking market
for the foreseeable future. (Accountant foreseeable, not Keith visionary
foreseeable).

Industrial is still a large market, but nobody will or should
invest in capital construction while the market has an over-supply.

The situation may be temporarily different in the USA - Govt incentives have
definitely distorted the market here - but long term it works out the same.

Sorry Keith. I wanted to go to space too.

-David



From sparge at gmail.com  Tue May 26 11:32:58 2015
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Tue, 26 May 2015 07:32:58 -0400
Subject: [ExI] oy vey nash has perished
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy2akQCnvYm3UGFOmVCya=m+EHDzhBeFqTPdkbMYD+WCHw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <03d701d0964d$1e3348b0$5a99da10$@att.net>
 <CAGSKFy2akQCnvYm3UGFOmVCya=m+EHDzhBeFqTPdkbMYD+WCHw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2eqoJCGwZFQBjg-XrKxxht-JuP4NLu121XuBNQVvp+kZw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, May 25, 2015 at 4:53 AM, John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Hopefully twenty years from now, with computer driven cars zipping
> around, this will be a far less common occurrence ...
>


Or, hey, seatbelts.

-Dave
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From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Tue May 26 11:45:23 2015
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Tue, 26 May 2015 07:45:23 -0400
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <201505260251.t4Q2pqq7007038@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
 <CAAc1gFi-s=ej4zs4iDWZtReTNuYHEyBzQKcp=jEZMneAT=X9+Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <201505260251.t4Q2pqq7007038@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <201505261151.t4QBp3rQ029748@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

I wrote:

>Your presumption is that IQ needs to be 
>determined through answering a test. There are 
>several dozen physical measurements that 
>correlate with IQ, e.g., nerve conductive 
>velocity, myelin sheathing, etc. We cannot 
>directly measure intelligence reliably *yet*. 
>But it's not clear there's an inherent reason 
>why we couldn't. (And there are also simple 
>subtests of regular IQ tests that are good first 
>approximations of IQ, like reverse digit span: 
>Given a sequence of n digits presented to you 
>one per second, repeat the sequence in reverse order.)

I realize I chose my words poorly. I'm not 
suggesting there's a measurable physical feature 
that *is* our intelligence, as there is for our 
height. But rather that there might be a set of 
physical (chemical, electrical, etc.) 
characteristics?count, thickness, velocity, 
resistance, and so on?that we would be able to 
measure quickly and cheaply. Plug the numbers 
into formulas and out pops a reliable measure of 
intelligence that is at least as good as today's written psychometric tests.

Which may be very useful in designing no?tropic techniques.

Besides enhancing you or me, I'm thinking about 
the subgroups that consistently measure lower 
than others. Say, the people of Lower Slobbovia. 
We see no obvious fixable reasons, like lack of 
dietary iodine or exposure to Y during fetal 
development. Which today leads one camp to say 
it's largely for genetic reasons and another to 
say it's an artifact of bad tests or bigoted researchers.

But I imagine that if we look very closely at why 
exactly is this set of people at IQ 70 and that 
set at IQ 160?measuring, modeling, analyzing, 
simulating?we might ultimately find workable 
answers to move some or all of humanity upward: R 
needs double the folic acid during pregnancy, S 
needs this neuropharmaceutical during puberty, T 
needs that neural prosthetic for the rest of their life.


-- David.




From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue May 26 17:01:34 2015
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Tue, 26 May 2015 13:01:34 -0400
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <CAGSKFy15TadepzKk6xJkFFTyguYYr8=AOMCL2S1c5Y4JC9pCKg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy15TadepzKk6xJkFFTyguYYr8=AOMCL2S1c5Y4JC9pCKg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3uLosWEe-agYnoctevXQzbFzCicLE_HPRV5WPVCyNmbQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, May 24, 2015 at 11:06 PM, John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> I recently saw the film Limitless, which along with Flowers for Algernon,
> and Lawnmower Man, is now a fave film of mine on intelligence enhancement.
>

Then I think you'd really like the 2014 film "Lucy", Limitless was very
good but I think Lucy was even better. The movie "Ex Machina" is about AI
rather than intelligence enhancement but it is also excellent and is still
playing in theaters.

  John K Clark
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From atymes at gmail.com  Tue May 26 18:02:48 2015
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 26 May 2015 11:02:48 -0700
Subject: [ExI] This power satellite video shown at the ISDC
In-Reply-To: <CADDVf2+jCd1G_h4DJQ3DEXqpWCZRxEYZGSTiBiA4SEqJYjv-yg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB7PYbMyfcwwn7vm_xMefC2RY+bRryUZgQXHqmQYy9=bWQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAGSKFy3iWYsAiWf1O8e8XJ_E5vQ01W0dthHCC7Ft7gLYCUo-fQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CADDVf2+jCd1G_h4DJQ3DEXqpWCZRxEYZGSTiBiA4SEqJYjv-yg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQeN1B1PZCp8AAdRw1-C+9FL8Wgqfh0ZhUupPFkYoNu8w@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, May 26, 2015 at 3:08 AM, J.R. Jones <mrjones2020 at gmail.com> wrote:

> I never understood this whole "What's the cost... It's too expensive"
> routine.
> Isn't the cost of NOT doing it, economic (and likely human) suicide?
>
No, it isn't.  Not if said suicide can be prevented just as well by
cheaper, more immediately available means.

> Renewables, space based or not, must be cheaper. Nevermind health and
> ecological costs.
>
"Space based or not" is the problem.  If the same benefits from using
renewables can be had from ground-based solar far sooner and for far less
money than for space-based solar, then why not claim that benefit sooner
and cheaper?  That's part of the core of the "too expensive" objection.
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From pjmanney at gmail.com  Tue May 26 18:12:40 2015
From: pjmanney at gmail.com (PJ Manney)
Date: Tue, 26 May 2015 11:12:40 -0700
Subject: [ExI] World's first blockchain verified ebook autograph?
In-Reply-To: <CAKTCJyf8nk8nCvvfnFOYpwJUhULGDbZ9NP8C+aXM5jcO-h6a1A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJrtBE1-3NObNcbO95fnLhniOvRayjKr3rtaVPXUpmw5fJ8s_w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJyf8nk8nCvvfnFOYpwJUhULGDbZ9NP8C+aXM5jcO-h6a1A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJrtBE2PPtzcoXCU5ZfDmqdd0cyVXwkj19EAWtOu1GCYJSJMbQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, May 24, 2015 at 11:18 PM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:

> PJ, this is super cool. By the way I started reading your book and
> it's really a page turner, difficult to put down.
>
> I am intrigued by your hint on Facebook that "the sequel, (ID)ENTITY
> is all about the blockchain," could you say something more about that?
>
> Thanks so much, Giulio! I don't want to say too much because of spoilers,
other than in a near-future where people trust corporations/governments
less and less [and in my books' universe, for good reason! ;-) ], more and
more verification will go to trustless systems like blockchain technology.
It is fascinating to play with what that might look like and how both the
supposedly powerful and the powerless might react to it. Of course, taking
it to an extreme is what fiction is all about.

Thank you so much for reading!
PJ
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From spike66 at att.net  Tue May 26 22:46:31 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 26 May 2015 15:46:31 -0700
Subject: [ExI] bees again
Message-ID: <033601d09805$d2424040$76c6c0c0$@att.net>

 

Knowing that I am a follower of bees, a friend sent me this excellent
article:

 

http://news.sciencemag.org/plants-animals/2015/05/new-white-house-pollinator
-plan-gives-big-buzz-science?utm_campaign=email-news-latest
<http://news.sciencemag.org/plants-animals/2015/05/new-white-house-pollinato
r-plan-gives-big-buzz-science?utm_campaign=email-news-latest&utm_src=email>
&utm_src=email

 

Back story and an update: we had a group doing informal bee observations for
several years.  That project came to a sudden end in 2012 when the head of
that project suffered a personal tragedy and signed off; the dataset was
lost.  Only a few days later, on New Year's Day 2013 I saw the biggest mass
bee death I had witnessed.  I collected about 100 of the dead bees and
attempted to dissect them for tracheal mites, but my skills proved
insufficient, for I was unable to see anything with my home microscope.  I
saw no varroa mites either, or any obvious external distress such as
tattered wings or indications of injury.

 

In a typical season I see about 20-30 dead bees.  I saw about 100 that one
day.  The spring 2014 bee season I saw far fewer bees than in any season
before; I saw more Carpenter bees and bumblebees (and other minority
pollinators) than I saw honeybees.  That was the only season I witnessed
that.

 

Update:

 

Now to this year: I see a puzzling paradox.  I have seen more bees this
spring than usual, perhaps a 1-sigma heavy bee season, but I have seen far
more bee deaths this year than in any year for about the last 10.  I have
seen about 150 bees dead or dying this season.  The pattern didn't match the
spring 2013 observation, where it was 100 bees all in one location at one
time.  This year I have noticed a lot of dead or dying bees, all in
different places and times, where the ones still living appear too weak to
fly.  This suggests starvation, which is entirely possible considering the
heavy population this year.  In the dying or dead bees I have examined, I
saw no indications of trauma or age-related distress.

 

It isn't clear what to think, but now I regret that no one (particularly me)
got off his lazy butt and set up a website or something to collect
observations, to step up when Queen Bee stood down.  I suppose I can claim I
have taken the first steps, by reserving a domain and viewing the HTML
lectures on Khan Academy.  So at least I now know how to set up a website,
but haven't done it yet, oy vey.

 

spike

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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Wed May 27 07:29:10 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Wed, 27 May 2015 00:29:10 -0700
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3uLosWEe-agYnoctevXQzbFzCicLE_HPRV5WPVCyNmbQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy15TadepzKk6xJkFFTyguYYr8=AOMCL2S1c5Y4JC9pCKg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3uLosWEe-agYnoctevXQzbFzCicLE_HPRV5WPVCyNmbQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy2qgoMmxm9k677UzW_7StowBGRBUswELvG4TbqQWLJ50g@mail.gmail.com>

Lucy really made me cringe! lol  I had hoped for so much more, on multiple
fronts.  As for Limitless, I consider it one of my favorite films.  I also
really enjoyed Lawnmower Man and the classic Flowers for Algernon.


John

On Tue, May 26, 2015 at 10:01 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sun, May 24, 2015 at 11:06 PM, John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> > I recently saw the film Limitless, which along with Flowers for
>> Algernon, and Lawnmower Man, is now a fave film of mine on intelligence
>> enhancement.
>>
>
> Then I think you'd really like the 2014 film "Lucy", Limitless was very
> good but I think Lucy was even better. The movie "Ex Machina" is about AI
> rather than intelligence enhancement but it is also excellent and is still
> playing in theaters.
>
>   John K Clark
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Wed May 27 11:08:16 2015
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 27 May 2015 12:08:16 +0100
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <033601d09805$d2424040$76c6c0c0$@att.net>
References: <033601d09805$d2424040$76c6c0c0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armiu5svypHdtUM1P9DRjJK2tdDPzrwny=j0tywRCEu=46A@mail.gmail.com>

On 26 May 2015 at 23:46, spike  wrote:
> http://news.sciencemag.org/plants-animals/2015/05/new-white-house-pollinator-plan-gives-big-buzz-science?utm_campaign=email-news-latest&utm_src=email
>
<snip>
> Now to this year: I see a puzzling paradox.  I have seen more bees this
> spring than usual, perhaps a 1-sigma heavy bee season, but I have seen far
> more bee deaths this year than in any year for about the last 10.  I have
> seen about 150 bees dead or dying this season.  The pattern didn?t match the
> spring 2013 observation, where it was 100 bees all in one location at one
> time.  This year I have noticed a lot of dead or dying bees, all in
> different places and times, where the ones still living appear too weak to
> fly.  This suggests starvation, which is entirely possible considering the
> heavy population this year.  In the dying or dead bees I have examined, I
> saw no indications of trauma or age-related distress.
>


I am moving to the idea that bees are being attacked on many fronts.
i.e. pesticides, neonicotinoid insecticides, mites, starvation, etc.
See:
<http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2015/05/building-bees/mann-text>

Quote re starvation -
A century ago many crops were still pollinated by feral bees. Then
family farms turned into agribusiness operations. Bees need to forage
for food much of the year, but fields devoted to single crops
typically have flowers for just a few weeks, while weeds that could
tide bees over are killed by herbicides. So few bees now exist that
farmers must rent hives from huge commercial outfits that transport
them from crop to crop in 18-wheelers.
------

The environment humans have created seems to have ignored the need for bees,

BillK



From sparge at gmail.com  Wed May 27 12:58:13 2015
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Wed, 27 May 2015 08:58:13 -0400
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <033601d09805$d2424040$76c6c0c0$@att.net>
References: <033601d09805$d2424040$76c6c0c0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2dQY_hp+9qJpgRvLMJXFytRT0QpXoE86eu2NU1xR05ktg@mail.gmail.com>

Check out:

  https://www.google.com/search?q=honey+bee+phenology&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

For a list of bee-tracking activities.

-Dave


On Tue, May 26, 2015 at 6:46 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
> Knowing that I am a follower of bees, a friend sent me this excellent
> article:
>
>
>
>
> http://news.sciencemag.org/plants-animals/2015/05/new-white-house-pollinator-plan-gives-big-buzz-science?utm_campaign=email-news-latest&utm_src=email
>
>
>
> Back story and an update: we had a group doing informal bee observations
> for several years.  That project came to a sudden end in 2012 when the head
> of that project suffered a personal tragedy and signed off; the dataset was
> lost.  Only a few days later, on New Year?s Day 2013 I saw the biggest mass
> bee death I had witnessed.  I collected about 100 of the dead bees and
> attempted to dissect them for tracheal mites, but my skills proved
> insufficient, for I was unable to see anything with my home microscope.  I
> saw no varroa mites either, or any obvious external distress such as
> tattered wings or indications of injury.
>
>
>
> In a typical season I see about 20-30 dead bees.  I saw about 100 that one
> day.  The spring 2014 bee season I saw far fewer bees than in any season
> before; I saw more Carpenter bees and bumblebees (and other minority
> pollinators) than I saw honeybees.  That was the only season I witnessed
> that.
>
>
>
> Update:
>
>
>
> Now to this year: I see a puzzling paradox.  I have seen more bees this
> spring than usual, perhaps a 1-sigma heavy bee season, but I have seen far
> more bee deaths this year than in any year for about the last 10.  I have
> seen about 150 bees dead or dying this season.  The pattern didn?t match
> the spring 2013 observation, where it was 100 bees all in one location at
> one time.  This year I have noticed a lot of dead or dying bees, all in
> different places and times, where the ones still living appear too weak to
> fly.  This suggests starvation, which is entirely possible considering the
> heavy population this year.  In the dying or dead bees I have examined, I
> saw no indications of trauma or age-related distress.
>
>
>
> It isn?t clear what to think, but now I regret that no one (particularly
> me) got off his lazy butt and set up a website or something to collect
> observations, to step up when Queen Bee stood down.  I suppose I can claim
> I have taken the first steps, by reserving a domain and viewing the HTML
> lectures on Khan Academy.  So at least I now know how to set up a website,
> but haven?t done it yet, oy vey.
>
>
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From sparge at gmail.com  Wed May 27 13:00:24 2015
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Wed, 27 May 2015 09:00:24 -0400
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiu5svypHdtUM1P9DRjJK2tdDPzrwny=j0tywRCEu=46A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <033601d09805$d2424040$76c6c0c0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armiu5svypHdtUM1P9DRjJK2tdDPzrwny=j0tywRCEu=46A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2eSZ8gUGtakKWou5fmpsNX_hQohT-ztzp00w14bte=hyg@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, May 27, 2015 at 7:08 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> The environment humans have created seems to have ignored the need for
> bees,
>

Beekeepers don't plop their hives on a crop and walk away. Hives are moved
from crop to crop, and bees are fed sugar water when supplies of nectar are
low.

-Dave
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From lubkin at unreasonable.com  Wed May 27 13:10:50 2015
From: lubkin at unreasonable.com (David Lubkin)
Date: Wed, 27 May 2015 09:10:50 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Perception of age
Message-ID: <201505271311.t4RDB24V006433@andromeda.ziaspace.com>

This morning I'm thinking about how old I perceive someone to be, 
relative to me.

The young teacher I had a crush on who turns out to be the same age 
as someone I later dated. The friend I thought was a little younger 
than me who turns out is young enough to be my kid. The parent and 
grown child who I'm separately friends with, both of whom feel like 
contemporaries.

Seems to me this is all an artifact of the sliver of history we live 
in. When life was rougher, the marks of age were more obvious. As 
life extension continues, we won't expect outward signs to be useful. 
We equally may not even notice the age gap between lovers Chris (age 
250) and Jesse (age 170), except to sniff that those young people 
should keep it in their kilts at the dinner table.


-- David.



From pharos at gmail.com  Wed May 27 14:11:21 2015
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 27 May 2015 15:11:21 +0100
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2eSZ8gUGtakKWou5fmpsNX_hQohT-ztzp00w14bte=hyg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <033601d09805$d2424040$76c6c0c0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armiu5svypHdtUM1P9DRjJK2tdDPzrwny=j0tywRCEu=46A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2eSZ8gUGtakKWou5fmpsNX_hQohT-ztzp00w14bte=hyg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armim2ijOaUxVPDZZTRCn63BTxxnOcJur2m74fnQbffFf2g@mail.gmail.com>

On 27 May 2015 at 14:00, Dave Sill wrote:
> Beekeepers don't plop their hives on a crop and walk away. Hives are moved
> from crop to crop, and bees are fed sugar water when supplies of nectar are
> low.
>

I think the article was mainly referring to feral bees, who are also dying out.

I don't think small beekeepers do much moving of hives. They used to
rely on  different flowering crops during the year. Certainly nowadays
moving hives around the country is much more necessary.

Another point is that feeding their bees doesn't seem to reduce colony
collapse disorder. Feeding sugar water is only a temporary aid.
See:
<http://beeinformed.org/2014/06/feeding-honeybees-honey-may-increase-mortality/>
Quote:
The BIP survey results for 2012 ? 2013 did show some differences.
First, those who fed carbohydrates to their bees lost more colonies,
significantly more, than those who did not feed. The survey covered
the same six methods of feeding as before. This time, the participants
increased to nearly 3800 representing slightly over 557,000 hives
(nearly double the previous year hive count). Those who chose to feed
their colonies lost about 45% while those that chose not to feed
carbohydrates lost 36%.
Note that both 36% and 45% are more than the 23% shown in the 2011 ?
2012 survey.
-------------------

Starvation is only one factor affecting bees. And it probably doesn't
apply to all bees, as some will be in a more general environment. When
you have a mix of causes, which don't apply in the same proportions
everywhere, the solution gets complicated.

A bit like finding a cure for cancer. You can only cure a bit at a time.

BillK



From tara at taramayastales.com  Wed May 27 14:49:48 2015
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Wed, 27 May 2015 07:49:48 -0700
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiu5svypHdtUM1P9DRjJK2tdDPzrwny=j0tywRCEu=46A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <033601d09805$d2424040$76c6c0c0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armiu5svypHdtUM1P9DRjJK2tdDPzrwny=j0tywRCEu=46A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <08CA48FD-6CE4-4B2D-AB07-EDD0320055A1@taramayastales.com>

I think it will get to the point that in the future, all other species on the planet will either be domesticated or extinct.

Tara Maya
Blog  |  Twitter  |  Facebook  |  Amazon  |  Goodreads



> On May 27, 2015, at 4:08 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> So few bees now exist that
> farmers must rent hives from huge commercial outfits that transport
> them from crop to crop in 18-wheelers.
> ------




From sparge at gmail.com  Wed May 27 14:52:01 2015
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Wed, 27 May 2015 10:52:01 -0400
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armim2ijOaUxVPDZZTRCn63BTxxnOcJur2m74fnQbffFf2g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <033601d09805$d2424040$76c6c0c0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armiu5svypHdtUM1P9DRjJK2tdDPzrwny=j0tywRCEu=46A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2eSZ8gUGtakKWou5fmpsNX_hQohT-ztzp00w14bte=hyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armim2ijOaUxVPDZZTRCn63BTxxnOcJur2m74fnQbffFf2g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2eQzVruGjtnjA+eNDShfZuiGRxc9LG_xzWf3k89OXeWDA@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, May 27, 2015 at 10:11 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> I think the article was mainly referring to feral bees, who are also dying
> out.
>

Feral is correct in North America because honeybees aren't native here.
There are native bees, though, and they're often much better pollinators.
Of course, they're also subject to habitat loss and aren't commercially
significant.

I don't think small beekeepers do much moving of hives.


True. Even in fairly developed areas there's plenty of flora to support a
few hives.


> They used to
> rely on  different flowering crops during the year. Certainly nowadays
> moving hives around the country is much more necessary.
>

It's necessary for agriculture, not for the bees.


> Another point is that feeding their bees doesn't seem to reduce colony
> collapse disorder. Feeding sugar water is only a temporary aid.
> See:
> <
> http://beeinformed.org/2014/06/feeding-honeybees-honey-may-increase-mortality/
> >
> Quote:
> The BIP survey results for 2012 ? 2013 did show some differences.
> First, those who fed carbohydrates to their bees lost more colonies,
> significantly more, than those who did not feed. The survey covered
> the same six methods of feeding as before. This time, the participants
> increased to nearly 3800 representing slightly over 557,000 hives
> (nearly double the previous year hive count). Those who chose to feed
> their colonies lost about 45% while those that chose not to feed
> carbohydrates lost 36%.
> Note that both 36% and 45% are more than the 23% shown in the 2011 ?
> 2012 survey.
> -------------------
>

That implies that starvation isn't a factor in CCD. Nectar isn't that
different than sugar water, and worker bees only live a matter of weeks, so
a temporary fix is all that's needed.


> Starvation is only one factor affecting bees. And it probably doesn't
> apply to all bees, as some will be in a more general environment. When
> you have a mix of causes, which don't apply in the same proportions
> everywhere, the solution gets complicated.
>

Indeed.

-Dave
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From spike66 at att.net  Wed May 27 14:48:47 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 27 May 2015 07:48:47 -0700
Subject: [ExI] bees again
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2dQY_hp+9qJpgRvLMJXFytRT0QpXoE86eu2NU1xR05ktg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <033601d09805$d2424040$76c6c0c0$@att.net>
 <CAM5aL2dQY_hp+9qJpgRvLMJXFytRT0QpXoE86eu2NU1xR05ktg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00ab01d0988c$40234100$c069c300$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Dave Sill
Sent: Wednesday, May 27, 2015 5:58 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] bees again

 

Check out:

  https://www.google.com/search?q=honey+bee+phenology <https://www.google.com/search?q=honey+bee+phenology&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8> &ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

For a list of bee-tracking activities.

-Dave

Thanks Dave!  I have been thinking of creating an instrument to measure bee activity using a microphone and a data logger.  The standalone data logger is only 16 bucks and plugs into a USB port.  The microphone is cheap and I don?t yet know what I need to make the microphone talk to the data logger, but I am thinking I would convert the SPL (sound pressure level) to a voltage and trigger a time stamped data point whenever the SPL reaches a threshold.  More data points = more bees.  

We could make these things for fifty bucks, ja?  One way or another, we need some kind of standard instrument to measure bee activity.  I think I am with Dave and BillK: we are seeing a combination of cumulative toxicity, parasites and starvation working together against our beloved partners in food production.

spike

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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Wed May 27 19:28:44 2015
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Wed, 27 May 2015 12:28:44 -0700
Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 140, Issue 22
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB5N8VxGebNvVV0uFU8fe4mQD3A3y5aK8KJvv-CCuC1EUQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, May 27, 2015 at 5:00 AM,  Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com> wrote:

snip

> "Space based or not" is the problem.  If the same benefits from using
> renewables can be had from ground-based solar far sooner and for far less
> money than for space-based solar, then why not claim that benefit sooner
> and cheaper?

It took a long time to get the projected cost of space based solar
power down to where it undercut coal.

If you know how to do that with ground based solar, instead if it
costing some substantial multiple of coal, your fortune is made.

Keith


From atymes at gmail.com  Wed May 27 20:47:52 2015
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 27 May 2015 13:47:52 -0700
Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 140, Issue 22
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB5N8VxGebNvVV0uFU8fe4mQD3A3y5aK8KJvv-CCuC1EUQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB5N8VxGebNvVV0uFU8fe4mQD3A3y5aK8KJvv-CCuC1EUQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSi74K0Dnm+BptZb6zY2ViAH_=nNVq3uyVFWT=qbR72CQ@mail.gmail.com>

On May 27, 2015 12:30 PM, "Keith Henson" <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> wrote:
> It took a long time to get the projected cost of space based solar
> power down to where it undercut coal.
>
> If you know how to do that with ground based solar, instead if it
> costing some substantial multiple of coal, your fortune is made.

A lot of companies agree with that assessment, and are steadily lowering
the cost of ground solar until it becomes less than coal.

Thing is, it is possible to make incremental progress with ground based,
and use the funding from that to go further.  Space based, the way you keep
presenting it, it's all or nothing, and unforeseen flaws or defects could
wreck the entire program: far riskier for the same end result.  You need to
show how space based can be done incrementally, and preferably make profit
during those increments just like ground based does.

I know of at least one way to do this, but it starts with asteroid mining
(returning high value metals to Earth; no space manufacturing/added value
from being in orbit at first, until customers for in-orbit goods are
generated) and only later adds on export of power to Earth (after starting
with solar power for on site use, with panels just like most satellites
today - no new architectures - but somewhat bigger).
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From pharos at gmail.com  Wed May 27 22:06:24 2015
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 27 May 2015 23:06:24 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
Message-ID: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>

We May be Systematically Underestimating the Probability of Annihilation
By Phil Torres    Posted: May 27, 2015

<http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/torres20150526>

Phil Torres has an article suggesting that risks might be larger than we expect.
Basically he is saying that unknown unknowns should be given more weight.

Unintended consequences.
Quote:
If history has taught us anything about purposive human behaviour,
it?s that intended causes proliferate unintended effects. This leads
to an absolutely crucial point: as advanced technologies become more
and more powerful, we should expect the unintended consequences they
spawn to become increasingly devastating in proportion. In other
words, the future will almost certainly be populated by a growing
number of big picture hazards that were not intended by the ?original
plan,? as it were, and which are significant enough to threaten
humanity with large-scale disasters, or even extinction.

Phenomena from nature that we are currently ignorant of, and which
could potentially bring about a catastrophe.
Currently unimagined risks posed by future, not-yet-conceived-of technologies.
Known risks can be combined in various ways to produce complex scenarios.
i.e. There may be a 'domino effect' where one event leads to another,
or simply two disasters may occur at the same time and go over a
critical threshold.

-----------------


I'm not sure what we are expected to do about 'unknown unknowns'.
Except keep looking over our shoulder to see if something is sneaking up on us.


BillK



From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Thu May 28 08:49:57 2015
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 01:49:57 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Perception of age
In-Reply-To: <201505271311.t4RDB24V006433@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
References: <201505271311.t4RDB24V006433@andromeda.ziaspace.com>
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy2eVYxq9wi3hk3-TBrPazi72dZ6N5CdZH3NMSgvYzniTw@mail.gmail.com>

I have read science fiction where people wear jewelry to give clues to
their chronological age.  I remember a sf novel where anyone older than a
few centuries, risked public displeasure if they got romantically involved
with anyone under 70.  Before then, you were just not seen as having enough
life experience to date an "elder"


John

On Wed, May 27, 2015 at 6:10 AM, David Lubkin <lubkin at unreasonable.com>
wrote:

> This morning I'm thinking about how old I perceive someone to be, relative
> to me.
>
> The young teacher I had a crush on who turns out to be the same age as
> someone I later dated. The friend I thought was a little younger than me
> who turns out is young enough to be my kid. The parent and grown child who
> I'm separately friends with, both of whom feel like contemporaries.
>
> Seems to me this is all an artifact of the sliver of history we live in.
> When life was rougher, the marks of age were more obvious. As life
> extension continues, we won't expect outward signs to be useful. We equally
> may not even notice the age gap between lovers Chris (age 250) and Jesse
> (age 170), except to sniff that those young people should keep it in their
> kilts at the dinner table.
>
>
> -- David.
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From kryonica at gmail.com  Thu May 28 10:06:57 2015
From: kryonica at gmail.com (Cryonica)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 11:06:57 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Speech on Biopolitcs at London H+ conference on May 23rd 2015
Message-ID: <A9197D7F-180B-4F87-9FBA-A6AE6FA8EB7D@gmail.com>

An excellent speech was given by Stefano Vaj on his book Biopolitics A Transhumanist Paradigm, last Saturday in London?s Birkbeck College.

Here is the recording:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24pVhJBtSPs&feature=youtu.be <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24pVhJBtSPs&feature=youtu.be>

And here is the link to the Kindle book in English:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Biopolitics-Transhumanist-Paradigm-Stefano-Vaj-ebook/dp/B00JYAJFRQ/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1432807416&sr=8-1&keywords=vaj <http://www.amazon.co.uk/Biopolitics-Transhumanist-Paradigm-Stefano-Vaj-ebook/dp/B00JYAJFRQ/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1432807416&sr=8-1&keywords=vaj>



Cryonica
kryonica at gmail.com



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From spike66 at att.net  Thu May 28 12:33:42 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 05:33:42 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated

>...We May be Systematically Underestimating the Probability of Annihilation
By Phil Torres    Posted: May 27, 2015

<http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/torres20150526>

>...Phil Torres has an article suggesting that risks might be larger than we expect.
Basically he is saying that unknown unknowns should be given more weight.

----------------
>...I'm not sure what we are expected to do about 'unknown unknowns'.
Except keep looking over our shoulder to see if something is sneaking up on us...BillK

_______________________________________________

Ja.  I have a hard time getting worried about unknown unknowns when we have such an enormous known known existential threat right before us: energy availability.  If we fail to figure out a way to transition to renewable energy sources in time (which looks likely) it isn't so much that humans will face extinction, but our modern way of life would become extinct.  We could die back to leave mostly those who have not mastered or eschew modern technology, such as the people in the Australian outback, the Amazon jungles, the Inuit people of the frozen north, the Amish, the African tribesmen and so forth, the segments of society which are or have been in technological stasis or have suffered retrograde technology.

Then if that outcome occurs, the future of humanity is in their hands.  They might develop religions which teach that technological stasis is good, that the old ones attempted to perform magic, but they flew too high and the sun melted their wings.  Their technology seemed to work well for a while, but it was a bitter illusion and much suffering and death was the long-term result, as they turned away from (fill in name of arbitrary deity.)  Therefore technology should not be developed, and should be eschewed and destroyed where found, that change is evil (etc.)

This future of humanity haunts me, not only because it is the end of every dream, but that its outcome is so easily foreseeable: all we have to do is stay on our present course.

spike




From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu May 28 13:30:03 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 08:30:03 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaL-YTF0nr3H3d9FoYo1uzNjFTPjMi7fO15UDd_EN_5Bg@mail.gmail.com>

Spike wrote:
We could die back to leave mostly those who have not mastered or eschew
modern technology, such as the people in the Australian outback, the Amazon
jungles, the Inuit people of the frozen north, the Amish, the African
tribesmen and so forth, the segments of society which are or have been in
technological stasis or have suffered retrograde technology.

Yep.  Maybe we should start going back to the jungle now and letting those
primitives teach us how to live.  Problem is -too many of us.

You included the plots of a great number of scifi novels of the dystopian
kind, by the way.

To my mind the large population is the main problem.  Shall we be forced on
a global basis to institute Chinese limits on birthing?  Enforced
sterility?  License to had a child?

Anyone reading this won't be around to find out, so why worry?  bill w

On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 7:33 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
> >... On Behalf Of BillK
> Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
>
> >...We May be Systematically Underestimating the Probability of
> Annihilation
> By Phil Torres    Posted: May 27, 2015
>
> <http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/torres20150526>
>
> >...Phil Torres has an article suggesting that risks might be larger than
> we expect.
> Basically he is saying that unknown unknowns should be given more weight.
>
> ----------------
> >...I'm not sure what we are expected to do about 'unknown unknowns'.
> Except keep looking over our shoulder to see if something is sneaking up
> on us...BillK
>
> _______________________________________________
>
> Ja.  I have a hard time getting worried about unknown unknowns when we
> have such an enormous known known existential threat right before us:
> energy availability.  If we fail to figure out a way to transition to
> renewable energy sources in time (which looks likely) it isn't so much that
> humans will face extinction, but our modern way of life would become
> extinct.  We could die back to leave mostly those who have not mastered or
> eschew modern technology, such as the people in the Australian outback, the
> Amazon jungles, the Inuit people of the frozen north, the Amish, the
> African tribesmen and so forth, the segments of society which are or have
> been in technological stasis or have suffered retrograde technology.
>
> Then if that outcome occurs, the future of humanity is in their hands.
> They might develop religions which teach that technological stasis is good,
> that the old ones attempted to perform magic, but they flew too high and
> the sun melted their wings.  Their technology seemed to work well for a
> while, but it was a bitter illusion and much suffering and death was the
> long-term result, as they turned away from (fill in name of arbitrary
> deity.)  Therefore technology should not be developed, and should be
> eschewed and destroyed where found, that change is evil (etc.)
>
> This future of humanity haunts me, not only because it is the end of every
> dream, but that its outcome is so easily foreseeable: all we have to do is
> stay on our present course.
>
> spike
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From tara at taramayastales.com  Thu May 28 14:23:36 2015
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 07:23:36 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaL-YTF0nr3H3d9FoYo1uzNjFTPjMi7fO15UDd_EN_5Bg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEaL-YTF0nr3H3d9FoYo1uzNjFTPjMi7fO15UDd_EN_5Bg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <4457EB15-939E-429F-A4FF-980FAFC34C26@taramayastales.com>

Maybe the real problem is Underpopulation. And certainly Underutilization of the population we now have. Human brains are themselves engines of a Singularity. Perhaps, though, there has to be a critical mass, say, 50 million, to reach the Human Singularity.


Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



> On May 28, 2015, at 6:30 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> Spike wrote:
> We could die back to leave mostly those who have not mastered or eschew modern technology, such as the people in the Australian outback, the Amazon jungles, the Inuit people of the frozen north, the Amish, the African tribesmen and so forth, the segments of society which are or have been in technological stasis or have suffered retrograde technology.
> 
> Yep.  Maybe we should start going back to the jungle now and letting those primitives teach us how to live.  Problem is -too many of us.
> 
> You included the plots of a great number of scifi novels of the dystopian kind, by the way.
> 
> To my mind the large population is the main problem.  Shall we be forced on a global basis to institute Chinese limits on birthing?  Enforced sterility?  License to had a child?
> 
> Anyone reading this won't be around to find out, so why worry?  bill w
> 
> On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 7:33 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net <mailto:spike66 at att.net>> wrote:
> 
> >... On Behalf Of BillK
> Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
> 
> >...We May be Systematically Underestimating the Probability of Annihilation
> By Phil Torres    Posted: May 27, 2015
> 
> <http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/torres20150526 <http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/torres20150526>>
> 
> >...Phil Torres has an article suggesting that risks might be larger than we expect.
> Basically he is saying that unknown unknowns should be given more weight.
> 
> ----------------
> >...I'm not sure what we are expected to do about 'unknown unknowns'.
> Except keep looking over our shoulder to see if something is sneaking up on us...BillK
> 
> _______________________________________________
> 
> Ja.  I have a hard time getting worried about unknown unknowns when we have such an enormous known known existential threat right before us: energy availability.  If we fail to figure out a way to transition to renewable energy sources in time (which looks likely) it isn't so much that humans will face extinction, but our modern way of life would become extinct.  We could die back to leave mostly those who have not mastered or eschew modern technology, such as the people in the Australian outback, the Amazon jungles, the Inuit people of the frozen north, the Amish, the African tribesmen and so forth, the segments of society which are or have been in technological stasis or have suffered retrograde technology.
> 
> Then if that outcome occurs, the future of humanity is in their hands.  They might develop religions which teach that technological stasis is good, that the old ones attempted to perform magic, but they flew too high and the sun melted their wings.  Their technology seemed to work well for a while, but it was a bitter illusion and much suffering and death was the long-term result, as they turned away from (fill in name of arbitrary deity.)  Therefore technology should not be developed, and should be eschewed and destroyed where found, that change is evil (etc.)
> 
> This future of humanity haunts me, not only because it is the end of every dream, but that its outcome is so easily foreseeable: all we have to do is stay on our present course.
> 
> spike
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat <http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat>
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

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From spike66 at att.net  Thu May 28 14:39:41 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 07:39:41 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <4457EB15-939E-429F-A4FF-980FAFC34C26@taramayastales.com>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEaL-YTF0nr3H3d9FoYo1uzNjFTPjMi7fO15UDd_EN_5Bg@mail.gmail.com>
 <4457EB15-939E-429F-A4FF-980FAFC34C26@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <003f01d09954$2451d630$6cf58290$@att.net>

 

On May 28, 2015, at 6:30 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:

 

.

>.To my mind the large population is the main problem.  Shall we be forced
on a global basis to institute Chinese limits on birthing?  Enforced
sterility?  License to had a child?

That solution space contains more space than solution.  Reasoning: where
babies are outlawed, only outlaws have babies.  There isn't much we can do
about it, because they outnumber you, so they outvote you.  If you try to
enforce your will anyway, they kill you, which isn't difficult because they
outnumber you.

>.Anyone reading this won't be around to find out, so why worry?  bill w

 

Our children and their children will be around to find out.  Our frozen
brains will be around to find out, if everything works out better than I
expect.

 

It is clear enough to me that humanity's path to survival is figuring out
some kind of renewable energy source, such as Keith's space based system and
a massive simultaneous ground-based effort.  We would somehow turn the war
machine to the new task of manufacturing solar panels by the jillions, and
somehow turn the legal machine to sweeping away restrictions keeping us from
blanketing huge swaths of desert with ground-based solar facilities.

 

spike

 

 

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu May 28 15:12:12 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 10:12:12 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <003f01d09954$2451d630$6cf58290$@att.net>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEaL-YTF0nr3H3d9FoYo1uzNjFTPjMi7fO15UDd_EN_5Bg@mail.gmail.com>
 <4457EB15-939E-429F-A4FF-980FAFC34C26@taramayastales.com>
 <003f01d09954$2451d630$6cf58290$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYYcA+dBXbcpZf7hUnXgK+=2gpTfgqfnEUJ2JgC=zmhbA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 9:39 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
> On May 28, 2015, at 6:30 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
>
> ?
>
> >?To my mind the large population is the main problem.  Shall we be
> forced on a global basis to institute Chinese limits on birthing?  Enforced
> sterility?  License to had a child?
>
> That solution space contains more space than solution.  Reasoning: where
> babies are outlawed, only outlaws have babies.  There isn?t much we can do
> about it, because they outnumber you, so they outvote you.  If you try to
> enforce your will anyway, they kill you, which isn?t difficult because they
> outnumber you.
>
> >?Anyone reading this won't be around to find out, so why worry?  bill w
>
>
>
> Our children and their children will be around to find out.  Our frozen
> brains will be around to find out, if everything works out better than I
> expect.
>
>
>
> It is clear enough to me that humanity?s path to survival is figuring out
> some kind of renewable energy source, such as Keith?s space based system
> and a massive simultaneous ground-based effort.  We would somehow turn the
> war machine to the new task of manufacturing solar panels by the jillions,
> and somehow turn the legal machine to sweeping away restrictions keeping us
> from blanketing huge swaths of desert with ground-based solar facilities.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
?So, what is to make anyone in the future curb population?  If your answers
hold, then the population will grow more and more until we have to build
cities underground and on the ocean.  How many people are enough?  50
billion?  one trillion?  98 trillion?  What is going to make people stop?
More is not better. ?


>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From spike66 at att.net  Thu May 28 17:02:11 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 10:02:11 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEYYcA+dBXbcpZf7hUnXgK+=2gpTfgqfnEUJ2JgC=zmhbA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEaL-YTF0nr3H3d9FoYo1uzNjFTPjMi7fO15UDd_EN_5Bg@mail.gmail.com>
 <4457EB15-939E-429F-A4FF-980FAFC34C26@taramayastales.com>
 <003f01d09954$2451d630$6cf58290$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <010d01d09968$0cdb1fc0$26915f40$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace



>>?It is clear enough to me that humanity?s path to survival is figuring out some kind of renewable energy source, such as Keith?s space based system and a massive simultaneous ground-based effort.  We would somehow turn the war machine to the new task of manufacturing solar panels by the jillions, and somehow turn the legal machine to sweeping away restrictions keeping us from blanketing huge swaths of desert with ground-based solar facilities.

spike

 

?>?So, what is to make anyone in the future curb population? 

 

The usual suspects: starvation and war.

 

>? If your answers hold, then the population will grow more and more until we have to build cities underground and on the ocean?

 

No.  We aren?t lacking for room, we are limited by energy.  Building cities underground and on the sea doesn?t solve the problem.

 

>?  How many people are enough?  50 billion?

 

I doubt we can carry 50 billion.  They would kill and devour us long before we get to 50 billion.

 

>?  What is going to make people stop?

 

The usual suspects?

 

>? More is not better?

 

?Agreed.  I just don?t see a clear path to prevent it.

 

spike

 

 

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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu May 28 17:21:33 2015
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 18:21:33 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhTAheqPMQ1eZ=dRcKtcWOJzp-10TTHMiH-erd7Jw4PJQ@mail.gmail.com>

On 28 May 2015 at 13:33, spike wrote:
> Ja.  I have a hard time getting worried about unknown unknowns when we have
> such an enormous known known existential threat right before us: energy availability.
> If we fail to figure out a way to transition to renewable energy sources in time
> (which looks likely) it isn't so much that humans will face extinction, but our
> modern way of life would become extinct.  We could die back to leave mostly
> those who have not mastered or eschew modern technology, such as the people
> in the Australian outback, the Amazon jungles, the Inuit people of the frozen north,
> the Amish, the African tribesmen and so forth, the segments of society which are
> or have been in technological stasis or have suffered retrograde technology.
<snip>
> This future of humanity haunts me, not only because it is the end of every dream, but
> that its outcome is so easily foreseeable: all we have to do is stay on our present course.
>

As you say, strictly speaking this is not an existential threat as
some small groups of humans still remain. Though it might be many
centuries before they develop technology. And with little fossil fuels
left in the ground, technology might not ever be developed again.

Torres points out that although this is not counted as an existential
threat, with only small groups of humans left, it would only take,
say, a bird flu epidemic or a drought to finish humanity off.
That is his cumulative existential risk idea.

BillK


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu May 28 17:49:22 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 12:49:22 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhTAheqPMQ1eZ=dRcKtcWOJzp-10TTHMiH-erd7Jw4PJQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhTAheqPMQ1eZ=dRcKtcWOJzp-10TTHMiH-erd7Jw4PJQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZEaMLC3kEPVabLF5p_T8e+TMZ+ZuqAxmeYrd75GhEYeQ@mail.gmail.com>

? More is not better?

 Agreed.  I just don?t see a clear path to prevent it.

spike

One thing give me some hope:  as a group/nation/country gets more and more
food and medical care the birth rate goes down.  Solid fact.  Didn't it go
negative in Japan awhile back?


If we could just share some of our wealth to provide those things to the
3rd world we could stop the destruction of habitat and not wind up with all
of our creatures bigger than squirrel in a few million acres of zoos.  Not
to mention the rain forests etc.


Superstition:  if we give them more food, more of them will breed, more of
them will live, and we will have more kids, not fewer.


bill w



On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 12:21 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On 28 May 2015 at 13:33, spike wrote:
> > Ja.  I have a hard time getting worried about unknown unknowns when we
> have
> > such an enormous known known existential threat right before us: energy
> availability.
> > If we fail to figure out a way to transition to renewable energy sources
> in time
> > (which looks likely) it isn't so much that humans will face extinction,
> but our
> > modern way of life would become extinct.  We could die back to leave
> mostly
> > those who have not mastered or eschew modern technology, such as the
> people
> > in the Australian outback, the Amazon jungles, the Inuit people of the
> frozen north,
> > the Amish, the African tribesmen and so forth, the segments of society
> which are
> > or have been in technological stasis or have suffered retrograde
> technology.
> <snip>
> > This future of humanity haunts me, not only because it is the end of
> every dream, but
> > that its outcome is so easily foreseeable: all we have to do is stay on
> our present course.
> >
>
> As you say, strictly speaking this is not an existential threat as
> some small groups of humans still remain. Though it might be many
> centuries before they develop technology. And with little fossil fuels
> left in the ground, technology might not ever be developed again.
>
> Torres points out that although this is not counted as an existential
> threat, with only small groups of humans left, it would only take,
> say, a bird flu epidemic or a drought to finish humanity off.
> That is his cumulative existential risk idea.
>
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From tara at taramayastales.com  Thu May 28 17:54:27 2015
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 10:54:27 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZEaMLC3kEPVabLF5p_T8e+TMZ+ZuqAxmeYrd75GhEYeQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhTAheqPMQ1eZ=dRcKtcWOJzp-10TTHMiH-erd7Jw4PJQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEZEaMLC3kEPVabLF5p_T8e+TMZ+ZuqAxmeYrd75GhEYeQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <9F2444A4-DD90-4EDC-8F94-D24B7B4290E3@taramayastales.com>

Again, I?d just like to point out there?s no proof more is not better.

You can assert it is not.

I hereby assert: More is better. The more humans the better. We don?t have nearly enough yet to even imagine what will become. 

We are still in the infancy of our sentience and haven?t even left the cradle yet.

Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



> On May 28, 2015, at 10:49 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> ? More is not better?
>  Agreed.  I just don?t see a clear path to prevent it.
> 
> 

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu May 28 18:16:53 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 13:16:53 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <9F2444A4-DD90-4EDC-8F94-D24B7B4290E3@taramayastales.com>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhTAheqPMQ1eZ=dRcKtcWOJzp-10TTHMiH-erd7Jw4PJQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEZEaMLC3kEPVabLF5p_T8e+TMZ+ZuqAxmeYrd75GhEYeQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <9F2444A4-DD90-4EDC-8F94-D24B7B4290E3@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZzA+-e-boMHYd6LPU0yWGGqsTORsgoTSmm_Rd2WsnUdQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 12:54 PM, Tara Maya <tara at taramayastales.com> wrote:

> Again, I?d just like to point out there?s no proof more is not better.
>
> You can assert it is not.
>
> I hereby assert: More is better. The more humans the better. We don?t have
> nearly enough yet to even imagine what will become.
>
> We are still in the infancy of our sentience and haven?t even left the
> cradle yet.
>
> Tara Maya
>

?Define 'better'. I say we are polluting the planet far more than our
species is worth.?

?  Fouling our nest, as if we are the only things in the universe worth
anything.?

> Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter
> <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook
> <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |
>  Amazon
> <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |
>  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>
>
>
>
> On May 28, 2015, at 10:49 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> ? More is not better?
>
>  Agreed.  I just don?t see a clear path to prevent it.
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Thu May 28 18:30:23 2015
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 11:30:23 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZzA+-e-boMHYd6LPU0yWGGqsTORsgoTSmm_Rd2WsnUdQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
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 <CAO+xQEZEaMLC3kEPVabLF5p_T8e+TMZ+ZuqAxmeYrd75GhEYeQ@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <F35EDB08-3E1C-468B-AAD1-142B5E9D5954@gmail.com>

On May 28, 2015, at 11:16 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 12:54 PM, Tara Maya <tara at taramayastales.com> wrote:
>> Again, I?d just like to point out there?s no proof more is not better.
>> 
>> You can assert it is not.
>> 
>> I hereby assert: More is better. The more humans the better. We don?t have nearly enough yet to even imagine what will become. 
>> 
>> We are still in the infancy of our sentience and haven?t even left the cradle yet.
>> 
>> Tara Maya
> 
> ?Define 'better'. I say we are polluting the planet far more than our species is worth.? ?  Fouling our nest, as if we are the only things in the universe worth anything.?

Is that the result of more humans or mistaken policies? 

Ever read the work of Julian Simon?

Regards,

Dan
 Sample my Kindle books via:
http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/
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From tara at taramayastales.com  Thu May 28 18:33:32 2015
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 11:33:32 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZzA+-e-boMHYd6LPU0yWGGqsTORsgoTSmm_Rd2WsnUdQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhTAheqPMQ1eZ=dRcKtcWOJzp-10TTHMiH-erd7Jw4PJQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEZEaMLC3kEPVabLF5p_T8e+TMZ+ZuqAxmeYrd75GhEYeQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <9F2444A4-DD90-4EDC-8F94-D24B7B4290E3@taramayastales.com>
 <CAO+xQEZzA+-e-boMHYd6LPU0yWGGqsTORsgoTSmm_Rd2WsnUdQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <F8835EEF-F306-4460-980B-627BE076FDF1@taramayastales.com>

I believe we have the capacity to greatly increase the biodiversity and life carry-capcity of the entire Earth?increasing not only our own population but the total number of species on our planet, and ultimately, in the solar system or beyond. 

I confess to the sins of being an optimist and a humanist. I believe in the value of human life and human intelligence. I believe a human being is of more benefit alive than dead. 

Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



> On May 28, 2015, at 11:16 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> 
> 
> On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 12:54 PM, Tara Maya <tara at taramayastales.com <mailto:tara at taramayastales.com>> wrote:
> Again, I?d just like to point out there?s no proof more is not better.
> 
> You can assert it is not.
> 
> I hereby assert: More is better. The more humans the better. We don?t have nearly enough yet to even imagine what will become. 
> 
> We are still in the infancy of our sentience and haven?t even left the cradle yet.
> 
> Tara Maya
> 
> ?Define 'better'. I say we are polluting the planet far more than our species is worth.? ?  Fouling our nest, as if we are the only things in the universe worth anything.?
> Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>
> 
> 
> 
>> On May 28, 2015, at 10:49 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com <mailto:foozler83 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>> 
>> ? More is not better?
>>  Agreed.  I just don?t see a clear path to prevent it.
>> 
>> 
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat <http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat>
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

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From tara at taramayastales.com  Thu May 28 18:34:07 2015
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 11:34:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <F35EDB08-3E1C-468B-AAD1-142B5E9D5954@gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhTAheqPMQ1eZ=dRcKtcWOJzp-10TTHMiH-erd7Jw4PJQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEZEaMLC3kEPVabLF5p_T8e+TMZ+ZuqAxmeYrd75GhEYeQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <9F2444A4-DD90-4EDC-8F94-D24B7B4290E3@taramayastales.com>
 <CAO+xQEZzA+-e-boMHYd6LPU0yWGGqsTORsgoTSmm_Rd2WsnUdQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <F35EDB08-3E1C-468B-AAD1-142B5E9D5954@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <313378F7-0D02-4AF7-82C3-6B988BFBC5FA@taramayastales.com>

Of course. He?s wrong.

Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



> On May 28, 2015, at 11:30 AM, Dan <danust2012 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> 
> Is that the result of more humans or mistaken policies? 
> 
> Ever read the work of Julian Simon?
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Da

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From spike66 at att.net  Thu May 28 20:07:58 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 13:07:58 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhTAheqPMQ1eZ=dRcKtcWOJzp-10TTHMiH-erd7Jw4PJQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhTAheqPMQ1eZ=dRcKtcWOJzp-10TTHMiH-erd7Jw4PJQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <016501d09982$01f201e0$05d605a0$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of BillK
Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2015 10:22 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated

On 28 May 2015 at 13:33, spike wrote:
>>... Ja.  ... This future of humanity haunts me, not only because it is the
end of 
> every dream, but that its outcome is so easily foreseeable: all we have to
do is stay on our present course.
>

>...As you say, strictly speaking this is not an existential threat as some
small groups of humans still remain. Though it might be many centuries
before they develop technology. And with little fossil fuels left in the
ground, technology might not ever be developed again...BillK
_______________________________________________


Indeed so.  A few months ago I was trying to categorize all the possible
explanations for the silence of the cosmos, and this one really gave me
heartburn, for I consider it the most likely: intelligence arises from time
to time, then when it becomes technologically enabled, the population
explodes, but the less-technologically enabled subset of the species
outbreeds the others and eventually devours them.  This causes the species
to become technologically disabled, and perhaps to evolve downward in
intelligence, where the differential reproductive advantage goes to the
fierce and strong rather than the intelligent and technologically able.  In
that grim scenario, human descendants remain an intelligent and possibly
dominant species, but not as much as we are now.  

The worrisome indications that such a thing could exist are seen in pockets
of humanity here and there which evidently did experience retrograde
technology and later reached a stasis at a low level of culture.  An example
would be the local indigenous population, the Ohlone people, a few of which
were still living in the area when the Spanish immigrants documented their
existence, and even into the time period when gold was discovered in central
California.  At that time, the Ohlones were in a state where they had almost
nothing.  They lived in the forested lands around the Bay Area, without even
clothing other than a deerskin draped over their shoulders.  They had no
shoes or moccasins, nothing.  They subsisted largely on wild berries and
nuts.  At the nearby Ohlone museum, I was struck by their being called stone
age people.  We say we are space age people, because we have gone into
space.  Iron age people learned how to make stuff out of iron.  But the
critical point here is that the Ohlones did not know how to fashion stuff
out of stone.  What few stone tools they had were traded to them, or they
slew the owner and took them.  They were not stone age people: they hadn't
mastered making things of stone.

So now, we have the expression "getting nuked back to the stone age."  Why
would we stop there?  Do you know how to knap flint?  Neither do I.  Without
our technology, we would be in worse shape than the Ohlones, known to be
dirt poor dangerous people by other local indigenous tribes.  We would be
worse off because we do not know how to survive even in the mild coastal
California climate without clothing or shoes.

Note that limiting our population to today's level or stabilizing back at a
billion proles doesn't actually remove this risk.  In some ways it makes it
worse.

We can imagine an explanation for Fermi's Paradox is that the equilibrium
point for technology in any species is well below that which we are enjoying
today.  Then all this cool stuff is a rare anomaly, soon to be gone again
like an evanescent puff of mist.  Oy.

spike



From spike66 at att.net  Thu May 28 20:16:23 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 13:16:23 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZEaMLC3kEPVabLF5p_T8e+TMZ+ZuqAxmeYrd75GhEYeQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhTAheqPMQ1eZ=dRcKtcWOJzp-10TTHMiH-erd7Jw4PJQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEZEaMLC3kEPVabLF5p_T8e+TMZ+ZuqAxmeYrd75GhEYeQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <019301d09983$2ec36ff0$8c4a4fd0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace
Sent: Thursday, May 28, 2015 10:49 AM
To: ExI chat list
Subject: Re: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated

 

? More is not better?

 >>?Agreed.  I just don?t see a clear path to prevent it?spike

>?One thing give me some hope:  as a group/nation/country gets more and more food and medical care the birth rate goes down.  Solid fact.  Didn't it go negative in Japan awhile back?

Ja, but the argument can be made that Japanese culture is doomed.

>?If we could just share some of our wealth to provide those things to the 3rd world?

We do already.

>? we could stop the destruction of habitat?

For the most part, all our efforts to stop habitat destruction have failed.  At best it?s a mixed success.

>? and not wind up with all of our creatures bigger than squirrel in a few million acres of zoos.  Not to mention the rain forests etc.

BillW if you know of a way to save the rain forests, you will be a hero sir.

>?Superstition:  if we give them more food, more of them will breed, more of them will live, and we will have more kids, not fewer?

Indeed.  Do you offer evidence the above notion is superstition, or just assume it so?  

You are aware there are currently plenty of human groups whose populations are held in check by space limitations and food limitations.  We know there are efforts to bring them food and introduce birth control technology.  They are grateful for the former but want no part of the latter (at least some subset within the group wants no part of the latter.)  This shouldn?t surprise us: we in the advanced west have subsets of our population who reject the notion of birth control, still to this day.  They have a lot of offspring.  And they vote.

spike

 

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From jasonresch at gmail.com  Mon May 25 05:03:19 2015
From: jasonresch at gmail.com (Jason Resch)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 00:03:19 -0500
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <DCC759E4-5F04-451D-BD10-CC721B846E47@gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy15TadepzKk6xJkFFTyguYYr8=AOMCL2S1c5Y4JC9pCKg@mail.gmail.com>
 <DCC759E4-5F04-451D-BD10-CC721B846E47@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CA+BCJUhpDfE1_Fs_x4Sz8Kr01HaUO8gLtR84jCRT3eWThsb_oQ@mail.gmail.com>

Here is some information and analysis on approximate real-life versions of
"limitless" pills:

http://www.gwern.net/Nootropics
and
http://www.reddit.com/r/nootropics

Jason

On Sun, May 24, 2015 at 11:56 PM, Dan <danust2012 at gmail.com> wrote:

> On May 24, 2015, at 8:06 PM, John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> I ran across this intriguing Quora thread, which I thought might interest
> the folks here...
>
> http://www.quora.com/What-would-an-IQ-of-500-or-1000-look-like
>
> I recently saw the film Limitless, which along with Flowers for Algernon,
> and Lawnmower Man, is now a fave film of mine on intelligence enhancement.
>
> I so badly want a big batch of those pills! lol
>
>
> John  :  )
>
>
> I'd like to get a batch and pass them out to people on the street, maybe
> (presuming they're safe) dump them I'm the water supply. :)
>
> Regards,
>
> Dan
>  Sample my Kindle books via:
> http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From jasonresch at gmail.com  Mon May 25 05:04:42 2015
From: jasonresch at gmail.com (Jason Resch)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 00:04:42 -0500
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <DCC759E4-5F04-451D-BD10-CC721B846E47@gmail.com>
References: <CAGSKFy15TadepzKk6xJkFFTyguYYr8=AOMCL2S1c5Y4JC9pCKg@mail.gmail.com>
 <DCC759E4-5F04-451D-BD10-CC721B846E47@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CA+BCJUhuiAnqkZkxyrqu2JzLV8DHuu47EsncFvV0njuqwdPywg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, May 24, 2015 at 11:56 PM, Dan <danust2012 at gmail.com> wrote:

> On May 24, 2015, at 8:06 PM, John Grigg <possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> I ran across this intriguing Quora thread, which I thought might interest
> the folks here...
>
> http://www.quora.com/What-would-an-IQ-of-500-or-1000-look-like
>
> I recently saw the film Limitless, which along with Flowers for Algernon,
> and Lawnmower Man, is now a fave film of mine on intelligence enhancement.
>
> I so badly want a big batch of those pills! lol
>
>
> John  :  )
>
>
> I'd like to get a batch and pass them out to people on the street, maybe
> (presuming they're safe) dump them I'm the water supply. :)
>
>
Instead we dump fluoride in the water supply which has been shown to lower
IQ in children.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-mercola/fluoride_b_2479833.html

Jason
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From jasonresch at gmail.com  Mon May 25 09:54:53 2015
From: jasonresch at gmail.com (Jason Resch)
Date: Mon, 25 May 2015 04:54:53 -0500
Subject: [ExI] What would an IQ of 500 or 1000 look like?
In-Reply-To: <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
References: <CA+BCJUjsLTTVy1JV6QU0ORtmdHuPmSJQUNH_qzOR-Pag8uxMkw@mail.gmail.com>
 <2319019163-3630@secure.ericade.net>
Message-ID: <CA+BCJUhTRH1Wf2P0ARyTaGC-t0QOY8+gTUJz9+94znf2Ww=S4Q@mail.gmail.com>

Anders,

Thanks for that link. I'm sure it will prove useful in the future.

I very much appreciated your framing of it in terms of how animals see our
behavior. It reminded me a bit of a movie I quite enjoyed:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0070544/ (Fantastic Planet)

With numbers like 10^100 or 10^199 that may begin to approach the number of
combinations for genes related to intelligence in the current human genome,
so I think the IQ scale has a definite upper bound where beyond which even
smarter humans aren't significantly greater in capacity or ability than
other humans even though they are comparatively far rarer and thus higher
in the scale.

Another way of looking at it is the computational capacity of the brain is
bounded by the efficiency of the neurons, and this is related to the
metabolism of the brain. There's only so much computation that a human
brain can perform when powered by a human diet. As impressive as von
Neumann's abilities were, his memory/real-time translation/calculating
ability is nothing special compared to what any computer of today can do.
On an intelligence scale for computer intelligence, since they won't be
subject to definite energy or processing limits, the scale would be far
more open-ended, I would think.

Here is some interesting reading on non-human super intelligence:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/ql/my_childhood_role_model/

Jason

On Mon, May 25, 2015 at 4:06 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> Jason Resch <jasonresch at gmail.com>
>
> The calculator breaks down above a z-score of 6, which has a probability
> of 1 in ~10 billion, corresponding to an IQ > 180. An IQ of 1,000 would
> have a z-score of 26.667, and an IQ of 1000 would be a z-score of 60. So we
> must ask, out of 10^20 or 10^30 naturally born humans how smart would that
> smartest human out of those ~10^30 be?
>
>
> A while ago I dug up an approximate formula that is applicable:
>
>
> http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2009/09/ten_sigma_numerics_and_finance.html
> So z=27 gives one chance in 10^160. z=60 is way outside my numerical
> precision when calculated straight, and the probability is around one in
> 10^199 when I just take the log of the equation. That is essentially one
> out of every particle that has ever or will ever existed in the observable
> universe.
>
> In the end, talking about IQ 500 is almost as confused as talking about
> doubling IQs: this is not what the scale is about. It is a bit like
> discussing how loud the big bang was (although, see
> https://telescoper.wordpress.com/2009/04/26/how-loud-was-the-big-bang/ )
>
> I think a better approach would be to consider how an animal would
> perceive human intelligence. We do incomprehensible or arbitrary things -
> generate some odd sounds, move stuff about, handle objects - and then big
> outcomes occur for often no obvious reason - food, images or rooms appear,
> other humans just do things as if they knew what we were thinking.
> Sometimes the point becomes somewhat clear far in retrospect, but most of
> the time there is no discernible link. And of course, many of the things
> that humans worry or enthuse about are things the animals simply do not get
> - why would a human get sad over a piece of paper with scribbles on?
>
> So I would expect superintelligences to be like this. They do stuff, stuff
> happens, and sometimes we can see that some desire and goal  seems to have
> been met. If they are human-derived we can sometimes see the similar
> drives, but also totally alien interests and drives. In many ways they
> would be confusing and boring, except when they decide to play with us.
>
>
> Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford
> University
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Thu May 28 23:57:46 2015
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 16:57:46 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB6P4BdiQ6t-EcqBCh-=NXirA2AYu88wD2X3GG9OuOyS2g@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 11:30 AM, William Flynn Wallace
<foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 12:54 PM, Tara Maya <tara at taramayastales.com> wrote:
>
>> Again, I?d just like to point out there?s no proof more is not better.
>>
>> You can assert it is not.
>>
>> I hereby assert: More is better. The more humans the better. We don?t have
>> nearly enough yet to even imagine what will become.
>>
>> We are still in the infancy of our sentience and haven?t even left the
>> cradle yet.
>>
>> Tara Maya
>>
>
> ?Define 'better'. I say we are polluting the planet far more than our
> species is worth.?
>
> ?  Fouling our nest, as if we are the only things in the universe worth
> anything.?

Bill you missed your cue.  "Leaving the cradle" refers to the point
where more humans live off planet (or perhaps are uploaded) than live
on it.

Keith


From avant at sollegro.com  Thu May 28 08:46:48 2015
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 01:46:48 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Will cosmic rays stop human space travel? (BillK)
Message-ID: <nvnk82exwk8orkxv3cxedmrh.1430641001192@email.android.com>

Maybe I am missing something obvious here, but if the problem is high energy charged particle radiation like protons, then why not just give the spacecraft a magnetic field?

If the earth's magnetosphere is sufficient to protect the ISS, then some neodynium magnets stuck around the hull should be enough. After all, the earth's magnetic field is about 100 times weaker than a typical  refrigerator magnet at the earth's surface and should fall off inverse square-wise out where it matters.

Now I get that the earth's mag field is huge giving lots room for deflection but the deflecting force is proportional to the strength of the field times the velocity of the incoming particle. And cosmic rays move pretty darn fast.

One would only need to use a magnet sufficiently strong to get the cosmic rays to travel in a circular orbit with a radius somewhat larger than the spacecraft. I am sure there are subtleties and complications involved but compared to tokamak plasma confinement, the geometry should be a breeze. After all you don't need all the cosmic rays to travel the same circular path.

Come to think of it, a shell of high energy plasma surrounding a ship might help protect the hull from large dust grains and micrometeors the ship might encounter.

Just a thought. I would hate to think we would be trapped on earth for the lack of trying an obvious idea. Especially with so many new propulsion schemes in the works, many of which are plasma and magnetohydrodynamically based.

Stuart LaForge

Sent from my phone.



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Fri May 29 01:03:36 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 20:03:36 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB6P4BdiQ6t-EcqBCh-=NXirA2AYu88wD2X3GG9OuOyS2g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB6P4BdiQ6t-EcqBCh-=NXirA2AYu88wD2X3GG9OuOyS2g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaMCxozDBeZ=mro5wCjLGqqYp+LuPd-2O4YAidZXu0x2g@mail.gmail.com>

?

Indeed.  Do you offer evidence the above notion is superstition, or just
assume it so?

You are aware there are currently plenty of human groups whose populations
are held in check by space limitations and food limitations.  We know there
are efforts to bring them food and introduce birth control technology.
They are grateful for the former but want no part of the latter (at least
some subset within the group wants no part of the latter.)  This shouldn?t
surprise us: we in the advanced west have subsets of our population who
reject the notion of birth control, still to this day.  They have a lot of
offspring.  And they vote.

spike


The correlation between birth rate and level of society is firm and
negative.  All of my data exist in books and articles I left behind when I
graduated, but I do recall this firmly.  I taught Human Sexuality for many
years and kept up with such as this until the late 90s.


Will Catholics and others who eschew birth control take over the earth?
Use of birth control among Catholics is and has been growing for decades.
And Latino Catholics are leaving for evangelical churches at a significant
rate.  Of course no birth control will be used when babies and young
children are dying at high rates.  Bring those rates down and people will
tend to have as many as they can afford (or can get the gov. to afford -
another issue).


As for the policy or number of people point: of course if we had policies
for rigorous testing of the chemicals we have put into the environment,
which would have stopped a great many, including medicines, if we limited
farmers to a proper amount of fertilizer for his acreage and showed them
how to prevent runoff, if we penalized industry much harder for dumping
into creeks etc., if we strongly treated our sewerage before dumping it
into the waters, if if if.    Then we'd have a lot less, maybe even
manageable pollution.  I suspect it will be shown that among the 50
chemicals in our bloodstreams that we were not born with we will find that
some cause or exacerbate or cause cancers and other serious medical
problems.


But still, to a certain extent it is the number of people that contribute
to the over pollution.


If it is any kind of government regulation, certain people will be against
it no matter what, so increasing the scope and the regulation of the EPA is
not going to happen anytime soon.  Politicians of the modern sort are
pocketliners.  Their contributors have them in their pockets.  I have no
solution to this sorry lot of so-called statesmen we have, from local to
nationwide.  They think of money first and the long term last.  Anybody
want to dispute this paragraph?  To say the least, we are not given a full
range of choices for who to elect.  And unless you are a billionaire you
have to go through a political party and toe their line somewhat.


bill w

On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 6:57 PM, Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com>
wrote:

> On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 11:30 AM, William Flynn Wallace
> <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 12:54 PM, Tara Maya <tara at taramayastales.com>
> wrote:
> >
> >> Again, I?d just like to point out there?s no proof more is not better.
> >>
> >> You can assert it is not.
> >>
> >> I hereby assert: More is better. The more humans the better. We don?t
> have
> >> nearly enough yet to even imagine what will become.
> >>
> >> We are still in the infancy of our sentience and haven?t even left the
> >> cradle yet.
> >>
> >> Tara Maya
> >>
> >
> > ?Define 'better'. I say we are polluting the planet far more than our
> > species is worth.?
> >
> > ?  Fouling our nest, as if we are the only things in the universe worth
> > anything.?
>
> Bill you missed your cue.  "Leaving the cradle" refers to the point
> where more humans live off planet (or perhaps are uploaded) than live
> on it.
>
> Keith
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From tara at taramayastales.com  Fri May 29 01:40:34 2015
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 18:40:34 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <F35EDB08-3E1C-468B-AAD1-142B5E9D5954@gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007201d09942$8c07ff50$a417fdf0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armhTAheqPMQ1eZ=dRcKtcWOJzp-10TTHMiH-erd7Jw4PJQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEZEaMLC3kEPVabLF5p_T8e+TMZ+ZuqAxmeYrd75GhEYeQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <9F2444A4-DD90-4EDC-8F94-D24B7B4290E3@taramayastales.com>
 <CAO+xQEZzA+-e-boMHYd6LPU0yWGGqsTORsgoTSmm_Rd2WsnUdQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <F35EDB08-3E1C-468B-AAD1-142B5E9D5954@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <96FB32A7-2EE4-4C90-9192-C7D08C7907BC@taramayastales.com>

Sorry for my brusk reply earlier. I had this person confused with someone else. Working on a big project and need to stop peeking in at this list! I?ll try and give a more thoughtful reply when I can.

Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



> On May 28, 2015, at 11:30 AM, Dan <danust2012 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> On May 28, 2015, at 11:16 AM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com <mailto:foozler83 at gmail.com>> wrote:
>> On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 12:54 PM, Tara Maya <tara at taramayastales.com <mailto:tara at taramayastales.com>> wrote:
>> Again, I?d just like to point out there?s no proof more is not better.
>> 
>> You can assert it is not.
>> 
>> I hereby assert: More is better. The more humans the better. We don?t have nearly enough yet to even imagine what will become. 
>> 
>> We are still in the infancy of our sentience and haven?t even left the cradle yet.
>> 
>> Tara Maya
>> 
>> ?Define 'better'. I say we are polluting the planet far more than our species is worth.? ?  Fouling our nest, as if we are the only things in the universe worth anything.?
> 
> Is that the result of more humans or mistaken policies? 
> 
> Ever read the work of Julian Simon?
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Dan
>  Sample my Kindle books via:
> http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ <http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/>_______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

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From hibbert at mydruthers.com  Fri May 29 04:32:35 2015
From: hibbert at mydruthers.com (Chris Hibbert)
Date: Thu, 28 May 2015 21:32:35 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <mailman.90.1432837835.350.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.90.1432837835.350.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <5567EBE3.7010003@mydruthers.com>

Thank you Dan and Tara. I was surprised that so much dour projection was 
taking place on the list and that it was necessary to bring up Julian 
Simon explicitly on exi-chat.

People are a resource. They solve problems. Wealth is an enabler. Richer 
societies do a better and more thorough job of cleaning up their 
effluents. It's populations that are moving toward relative wealth that 
makes things dirtier until they can afford to do better. The western 
world has mostly passed this point. China and India are getting wealthy 
enough that they are turning the corner.

People have been predicting the end of fossil fuels for more than 100 
years, and it's cheaper (read more available) than it's ever been 
before. We have more known reserves than ever. Sure if you project out a 
few hundred years, it's hard to guess where we'd get fossil fuels to 
replace the current known supplies, but it's also hard to imagine that 
we won't figure out how to do better with less solar, photovoltaic, 
geothermal, wave energy, etc.

There are existential threats, but population pressure, pollution, and 
the end of cheap energy are not on my list of worries.

Chris
-- 
Currently reading: How China Became Capitalist, Ronald Coase and
     Ning Wang; The Three-Body Problem, Liu Cixin; A Dance with
     Dragons, George R. R. Martin; Seven Years in Tibet, Heinrich
     Harrer; Seeing Like a State, James C. Scott;

Chris Hibbert
hibbert at mydruthers.com
http://mydruthers.com


From puglisi at arcetri.astro.it  Fri May 29 08:27:38 2015
From: puglisi at arcetri.astro.it (Alfio Puglisi)
Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 10:27:38 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Will cosmic rays stop human space travel? (BillK)
In-Reply-To: <nvnk82exwk8orkxv3cxedmrh.1430641001192@email.android.com>
References: <nvnk82exwk8orkxv3cxedmrh.1430641001192@email.android.com>
Message-ID: <CAJUeD7jA1vR7hwCj4WsoUtpFzGKfS3t-CGRBmohwFv+6pC9Q5g@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 10:46 AM, Stuart LaForge <avant at sollegro.com> wrote:

> Maybe I am missing something obvious here, but if the problem is high
> energy charged particle radiation like protons, then why not just give the
> spacecraft a magnetic field?
>

Someone is working on that:

http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2008/nov/06/magnetic-shield-could-protect-spacecraft

Alfio
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From connor_flexman at brown.edu  Fri May 29 06:29:51 2015
From: connor_flexman at brown.edu (Flexman, Connor)
Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 01:29:51 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Will cosmic rays stop human space travel? (BillK)
In-Reply-To: <nvnk82exwk8orkxv3cxedmrh.1430641001192@email.android.com>
References: <nvnk82exwk8orkxv3cxedmrh.1430641001192@email.android.com>
Message-ID: <CA++aaA9_+gF1O9wR4bjnhJwbLT0bn+D4GzSVdvjJLRU7uOQ-5A@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, May 28, 2015 at 3:46 AM, Stuart LaForge <avant at sollegro.com> wrote:

> Maybe I am missing something obvious here, but if the problem is high
> energy charged particle radiation like protons, then why not just give the
> spacecraft a magnetic field?
>
> If the earth's magnetosphere is sufficient to protect the ISS, then some
> neodynium magnets stuck around the hull should be enough. After all, the
> earth's magnetic field is about 100 times weaker than a typical
> refrigerator magnet at the earth's surface and should fall off inverse
> square-wise out where it matters.
>

I have thought of this too, so I'm sure it's been considered by actual
aerospace technicians.
A back of the envelope calculation:
x=.5at^2
F=*qvB*=ma=*2mxt^-2*
Using orders of magnitude, 10^(-19+8+logB)=10^(-27+16) gives us B=1 Tesla.
This assumed a cosmic ray of a third the speed of light being displaced 1
meter under a field uniform for a meter out (t being the time spent in that
1 meter). As you predictively stated, this is about the strength of a
neodymium magnet at its edge. A lot closer to reasonable than I had
intuited.

Unfortunately, the biggest issue seems to be extending the field far from
the spacecraft. As you noted, the field falls off as inverse square of the
distance, so unfortunately the field 1 cm from the center of the neodymium
magnet is reduced by 4 orders of magnitude a meter out. Then even a 1 inch
neodymium coating all over would be woefully inadequate. I have little
experience with actual magnetic configurations, so I'm not sure what our
options are here, but it seems like the problem is less "subleties and
complications" than raw power. I think superconducting solenoids a la LHC
work at about 10 Tesla for almost a meter, so we'd need something like that
all around the spacecraft. We would also need to make sure our field was
confined, otherwise our shipboard electronics will be entirely destroyed.
If I'm wrong or overlooking easy fixes, someone else can help me out here.

Further, this a run of the mill .3 v/c cosmic ray; their flux drops off as
a power law with energy, but there are still many within two orders of
magnitude that wouldn't be blocked. All in all, while this would be a nice
simple fix if it worked, it looks to me like it would fail any practical
cost-effectiveness measure. At some point, instead of building a magnetic
field a meter out, you might as well start stacking lead.

Connor
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From anders at aleph.se  Fri May 29 13:42:17 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 15:42:17 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Will cosmic rays stop human space travel? (BillK)
In-Reply-To: <CA++aaA9_+gF1O9wR4bjnhJwbLT0bn+D4GzSVdvjJLRU7uOQ-5A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <2682725524-7774@secure.ericade.net>


From:   "Flexman, Connor" <connor_flexman at brown.edu> 

 





Unfortunately, the biggest issue seems to be extending the field far from the spacecraft. As you noted, the field falls off as inverse square of the distance, so unfortunately the field 1 cm from the center of the neodymium magnet is reduced by 4 orders of magnitude a meter out. 




Worse. Magnetic fields are dipoles, so they fall of with the *cube* of distance.


All references I have seen to protection using magnetic fields have sketched rather extended antennas, solenoids or plasma clouds in order to have more time to deflect and less need for a super-strong field.?


Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From brindleswan at tutanota.de  Fri May 29 06:40:41 2015
From: brindleswan at tutanota.de (Brindle Swan)
Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 06:40:41 +0000 (UTC)
Subject: [ExI] Existenial Risks May Be Overestimated, or UnEstimatable
Message-ID: <JqTOfZP----0@tutanota.de>

When Dannon makes yoghurt, they don't produce it directly through mechanical 
engineering, because they can't.

Any given strain of yoghurt would seem extremely unlikely to have just 
evolved in a "natural" universe. But to be useful to us, we need to 
repeatedly regenerate a life form we didn't really create on purpose 
directly.

Similarly, we may not be a historical simulation for education or fun... we 
may be the lucky little universe that could . . . and so we are? re run as a 
cellular automata over and over because we end up as a useful super 
intelligence that could not have been directly engineered.

Because underlying substrate is never 100 percent glitch free, we still 
evolve and can kind of feel like we have something freewillish.

To be on the safe side, the default assumpion would be to always assume a 
significant probability of being in some base level of reality.

Brindle Swan
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From anders at aleph.se  Fri May 29 14:40:45 2015
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 16:40:45 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armirJZEyFMs6GU5zD1i68bXL0O6uLmvrHLX3Y1WMZdpsUA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <2686099929-5728@secure.ericade.net>


From:?BillK <pharos at gmail.com>?
I'm not sure what we are expected to do about 'unknown unknowns'.
Except keep looking over our shoulder to see if something is sneaking up on us.




In most situations of ignorance new knowledge generally tends to be helpful. So obviously we should try to gather as much information as possible about what might threaten us - while being aware that some knowledge also needs to be managed carefully (anybody want to download the smallpox genome?)?


We can also follow strategies that make us more resilient as a civilization and a species like spreading out. Knowing we may be in worse circumstances than it looks means we should put more effort into these strategies and the information gathering than is apparently rational given past data.


Finally, if irreducible xrisk is higher than we thought, we may also focus a bit more on enjoying the here-and-now. This is not necessarily opposed to reducing xrisk and aiming at living forever: cherish every day as if it were your last - but plan to live forever that way.?


Anders Sandberg, Future of Humanity Institute Philosophy Faculty of Oxford University
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From spike66 at att.net  Fri May 29 14:33:18 2015
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 07:33:18 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existenial Risks May Be Overestimated, or UnEstimatable
In-Reply-To: <JqTOfZP----0@tutanota.de>
References: <JqTOfZP----0@tutanota.de>
Message-ID: <024401d09a1c$6a737e20$3f5a7a60$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Brindle Swan
?

>?Because underlying substrate is never 100 percent glitch free, we still evolve and can kind of feel like we have something freewillish.

>?Brindle Swan

 

Is it really freewillish, or is it merely perceived as freewillish?  Or is it more freeishwill?

 

{8^D

 

Welcome new poster.  Do tell us something about Brindle if you wish.

 

spike

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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri May 29 15:34:29 2015
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 11:34:29 -0400
Subject: [ExI] Will cosmic rays stop human space travel? (BillK)
In-Reply-To: <CA++aaA9_+gF1O9wR4bjnhJwbLT0bn+D4GzSVdvjJLRU7uOQ-5A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <nvnk82exwk8orkxv3cxedmrh.1430641001192@email.android.com>
 <CA++aaA9_+gF1O9wR4bjnhJwbLT0bn+D4GzSVdvjJLRU7uOQ-5A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0FPiru9Jh-huhqiPCfW0ioZm4Y+QNc319wzi-gpA9Svg@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, May 29, 2015  Flexman, Connor <connor_flexman at brown.edu> wrote:

> I think superconducting solenoids a la LHC work at about 10 Tesla for
> almost a meter, so we'd need something like that all around the spacecraft.


The magnets at the LHC are strong enough to cause protons with an energy of
6.5 TeV to bend into a curve with a 2.7 mile radius, you'd need
something stronger to protect a spacecraft, you'd need something that would
cause them to form a curve with a radius of just a few hundred feet. And
although rare some cosmic rays are MUCH more powerful than 6.5 Tev. And
magnetic fields would be no help at all against X rays or Gamma rays.

  John K Clark
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Fri May 29 15:40:14 2015
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 10:40:14 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Existenial Risks May Be Overestimated, or UnEstimatable
In-Reply-To: <024401d09a1c$6a737e20$3f5a7a60$@att.net>
References: <JqTOfZP----0@tutanota.de>
 <024401d09a1c$6a737e20$3f5a7a60$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaL9tmoK++fvjXxZnwFwCMocwkSsT+hSgG7p=23O75jpg@mail.gmail.com>

For my money, I'd never refer to the concepts of 'reality' and
'natural/unnatural' again and be better off by far.  bill w

On Fri, May 29, 2015 at 9:33 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *Brindle Swan
> *?*
>
> >?Because underlying substrate is never 100 percent glitch free, we still
> evolve and can kind of feel like we have something freewillish.
>
> >?Brindle Swan
>
>
>
> Is it really freewillish, or is it merely perceived as freewillish?  Or is
> it more freeishwill?
>
>
>
> {8^D
>
>
>
> Welcome new poster.  Do tell us something about Brindle if you wish.
>
>
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Fri May 29 17:36:11 2015
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan)
Date: Fri, 29 May 2015 10:36:11 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Existential Risks might be underestimated
In-Reply-To: <2686099929-5728@secure.ericade.net>
References: <2686099929-5728@secure.ericade.net>
Message-ID: <CF1AF1A5-9915-4615-8A51-7E99FEFD7CB5@gmail.com>

On May 29, 2015, at 7:40 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> In most situations of ignorance new knowledge generally tends to be helpful. So obviously we should try to gather as much information as possible about what might threaten us - while being aware that some knowledge also needs to be managed carefully (anybody want to download the smallpox genome?) 
> 
> We can also follow strategies that make us more resilient as a civilization and a species like spreading out. Knowing we may be in worse circumstances than it looks means we should put more effort into these strategies and the information gathering than is apparently rational given past data.
> 
> Finally, if irreducible xrisk is higher than we thought, we may also focus a bit more on enjoying the here-and-now. This is not necessarily opposed to reducing xrisk and aiming at living forever: cherish every day as if it were your last - but plan to live forever that way. 

The plan is to live forever or die trying, no? ;)

Regards,

Dan
 Sample my Kindle books via:
http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/
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From pjmanney at gmail.com  Sat May 30 18:44:08 2015
From: pjmanney at gmail.com (PJ Manney)
Date: Sat, 30 May 2015 11:44:08 -0700
Subject: [ExI] World's first blockchain verified ebook autograph?
In-Reply-To: <CAJrtBE2PPtzcoXCU5ZfDmqdd0cyVXwkj19EAWtOu1GCYJSJMbQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJrtBE1-3NObNcbO95fnLhniOvRayjKr3rtaVPXUpmw5fJ8s_w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJyf8nk8nCvvfnFOYpwJUhULGDbZ9NP8C+aXM5jcO-h6a1A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJrtBE2PPtzcoXCU5ZfDmqdd0cyVXwkj19EAWtOu1GCYJSJMbQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJrtBE1t+ZYdUcVwatUJU_T33Bj=UwGrLvru+_mP2CWbdHuL_A@mail.gmail.com>

Just FYI, my website is finally up and I blogged more about this if anyone
else is interested: http://pjmanney.com/blog/digital-blockchain-autograph/

PJ

On Tue, May 26, 2015 at 11:12 AM, PJ Manney <pjmanney at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sun, May 24, 2015 at 11:18 PM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> PJ, this is super cool. By the way I started reading your book and
>> it's really a page turner, difficult to put down.
>>
>> I am intrigued by your hint on Facebook that "the sequel, (ID)ENTITY
>> is all about the blockchain," could you say something more about that?
>>
>> Thanks so much, Giulio! I don't want to say too much because of spoilers,
> other than in a near-future where people trust corporations/governments
> less and less [and in my books' universe, for good reason! ;-) ], more and
> more verification will go to trustless systems like blockchain technology.
> It is fascinating to play with what that might look like and how both the
> supposedly powerful and the powerless might react to it. Of course, taking
> it to an extreme is what fiction is all about.
>
> Thank you so much for reading!
> PJ
>



-- 
*PJ Manney*
310-869-3685
pjmanney at gmail.com
https://www.facebook.com/pjmanney
https://twitter.com/pjmanney
http://www.linkedin.com/in/pjmanney
https://plus.google.com/+PJManney
http://pj-manney.blogspot.com/
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