[ExI] China, Russia, the U.S., and the Singularity

[John Grigg]

Being that it is Memorial Day in the United States, I thought I would post
my concerns about how a strong China, rapidly modernizing their military
forces, seems to be on a collision course with the U.S., in terms of
wanting to stake out a larger security/defense claim, then they probably
have a right to do, in terms of building a network of artificial island
ports and air fields.  And on top of that, China carries out a campaign of
very capable meat space and cyber espionage against the United States.


Meanwhile, Russia, under Putin's leadership, is engaged in a huge upgrade
of their own military forces.  And they are seeking a strong alliance with
China, to challenge U.S. global power.  Now people are wondering if we will
see a return to the bad old days of cold wars with Russia.  And when Putin
dies and his influence is gone, someone even more aggressive, with even
less good judgment, may take control of the nation.  A variety of scholars
compare his government to a mafia, in terms of governing style...


I worry that a Russian/Chinese alliance will cause the U.S. military
industrial complex to grow even more, and suck the life out of the economy,
with relatively weak results, due to all the incompetence/corruption in
regards to corporate contractors, military leaders, and politicians.  The
F-35 is a classic example of this problem.


I realize the U.S. and the world in general must certainly make room for a
resurgent Russia and powerhouse China.  But can the U.S. and others do it
without making the deadly mistakes of either appeasing them too much, or on
the other hand, being such hawks that they are unnecessarily antagonized to
the extent of actively seeking aggression against the West, where it might
otherwise have been avoid.


Many convergence technologies (nanotech, AI, robotics, genetic engineering,
etc.,...) will be fueled and funneled toward the goal of military
supremacy, by each of these nations, rather than for simply peaceful
endeavors.  And so I worry that future AI may look around at warlike
mercurial humans, and decide that we are disturbingly untrustworthy and
need to go...  Then there is the matter of humanity colonizing our solar
system, as well as others, but taking our political divisions and
war-making with us.   And once extreme life extension is developed, we
could get a generation of very anti-progressive leaders, in power for ages,
who would slow humanity's maturation.


John
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