[ExI] Existenial Risks May Be Overestimated, or UnEstimatable

[Brindle Swan]

When Dannon makes yoghurt, they don't produce it directly through mechanical 
engineering, because they can't.

Any given strain of yoghurt would seem extremely unlikely to have just 
evolved in a "natural" universe. But to be useful to us, we need to 
repeatedly regenerate a life form we didn't really create on purpose 
directly.

Similarly, we may not be a historical simulation for education or fun... we 
may be the lucky little universe that could . . . and so we are  re run as a 
cellular automata over and over because we end up as a useful super 
intelligence that could not have been directly engineered.

Because underlying substrate is never 100 percent glitch free, we still 
evolve and can kind of feel like we have something freewillish.

To be on the safe side, the default assumpion would be to always assume a 
significant probability of being in some base level of reality.

Brindle Swan
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