[ExI] Whistling past the graveyard
Anders Sandberg
anders at aleph.se
Wed Apr 6 16:36:12 UTC 2016
On 2016-04-06 12:04, Dan TheBookMan wrote:
> Was this prediction based on anything more than gut feel?
Those predictions were all gut feel.
It is well known (among forecasting experts) that experts on a domain
rarely make good forecasts about the domain - it is a different kind of
expertise.
> Also, isn't progress often nonlinear and perhaps many of the
> predictions are linear? My guess is in this field more rapid advances
> are happening now where past progress was more fits and starts.
Fits and starts are less predictable than exponential growth, although
people of course do tend to underestimate that because of linear
predictions (or the availability heuristic).
The big problem IMHO is the lack of ways of measuring progress in most
AI domains. We have nice results for speech recognition, character
recognition and image captioning, but far less good measurements on
actual smarts.
Shane Legg's AIQ ( http://www.vetta.org/2011/11/aiq/ ) seems to be
fairly hard to apply, even if it is general (and the only serious
application so far of the BrainFuck language!).
--
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20160406/1229ac4e/attachment.html>
More information about the extropy-chat
mailing list