[ExI] Our Ageing World

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Sat Aug 13 19:32:50 UTC 2016

It first happened in Italy in 1995. Five years later it happened in
six additional countries, Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Japan, Portugal
and Spain. Today the total number of countries where it has occurred
stands at 30, including most members of the European Union. In fifteen
years that number is expected to nearly double and include Australia,
Canada, China, Russia, South Korea and the United States.

What happened to those countries – and will continue to occur to
virtually every country’s population worldwide – is the Historic
Reversal or the demographic turning point when children in a
population become fewer than its elderly. This noteworthy milestone
reflects the significant and far-reaching aging transformation of
human populations taking place largely during the 21st century.


The two key factors bringing about the Historic Reversal of population
age structures are declining fertility rates and rising life
expectancies. In every corner of the world, women are bearing fewer
children than in the past. Whereas the average global fertility rate
in 1965 was five births per woman, today it has fallen to half that
level, with 75 countries or close to half the world’s population
experiencing rates below the replacement level of about two births per

In addition to rising life expectancies at birth, people are living
longer than ever before as mortality rates among the elderly are
declining. Over the past five decades the world’s life expectancy at
age 65 has increased by nearly five years, with some countries, such
as China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea, making gains of seven or
more years.

Life extension tech will increase this ageing process.

The outlook for pension schemes is not good.

With fewer young men available, robots will have to do the work and
fight in our wars.


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