From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Feb  1 00:25:33 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 2016 19:25:33 -0500
Subject: [ExI]
	=?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
	=?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se>
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On Sun, Jan 31, 2016 at 2:04 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

?> ?
> I think Eliezer has a relevant point: he is concerned that "Human neural
> intelligence is not that complicated and current algorithms are touching on
> keystone, foundational aspects of it." - i.e. we may have found a general
> tool in deep learning that reduces the "to do" list of AGI by at least one
> line (out of an unknown number).
>

?I also think Eliezer makes a good point (and wish he was still on the
list) but the number of lines in the brain's master algorithm is not
*completely* ?unknown, we can put a upper limit on how big it could be on
it. Ray Kurzweil says:


*?"?The amount of information in the genome (after lossless compression,
which is feasible because of the massive redundancy in the genome) is about
50 million bytes (down from 800 million bytes in the uncompressed
genome)?".?*

?We also know that only 40% of the genome deals with the brain so that gets
us down to 20 million bytes; that would be a big program but not bigger
than some that people have already written. And most of that 20 million
bytes must be about basic biologic functions and how neurons and Glial
cells can stay alive rather than the all important seed algorithm that
allows us to learn. So the master algorithm must be smaller than 20 million
bytes and probably a lot smaller.

?> ?
> More practically I think the Wired article gets things right: this is a
> big deal commercially. Solving tricky value functions is worth money
>

?
Yes, and big money means more competition, and more competition means more
progress.


> ?> ?
> if they do generalize to hand-eye coordination, then we will have a
> practical robot revolution.
>

?When that happens it seems to me many if not most most economic textbooks
would be rendered obsolete.

 John K Clark  ?
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Mon Feb  1 01:43:50 2016
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 2016 17:43:50 -0800
Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 148, Issue 12
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB7_nAiwKCVePqZUA2bSsAT-LXay3xHdcoztgB-F4sXM_g@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Jan 31, 2016 at 12:12 PM,  Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2016-01-26 01:31, Keith Henson wrote:
>> One of the arguments used against it being alien mega structures is
>> the lack of IR. That's kind of funny when you consider we are far
>> along with the James Webb telescope. Looking into a giant telescope
>> like JW (or certain kinds of power satellites) we would not see excess
>> IR.
>
> Actually, the Webb telescope is radiating a lot of IR in most
> directions. It is only the the business end that is cold.
>
> [ If you have an object of finite temperature and radiate its IR into a
> fraction of the sky, the total volume where it is detectable (assuming
> some fixed detection threshold) actually increases! ]

Consider the power satellite in this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-Lrj35HcbQ

The radiator is shaded from the sun which prevents any of it's
radiation from going out in the plane of the ecliptic.  If something
comes between the star and Kepler, it's assumed to be in the plane of
the ecliptic.  So swarms of power satellites of this class would block
light, but not emit IR along the direction we are looking.

Keith


From anders at aleph.se  Mon Feb  1 01:49:39 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 01:49:39 +0000
Subject: [ExI]
 =?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
 =?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <56AE8225.6060808@posthuman.com>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <56AE8225.6060808@posthuman.com>
Message-ID: <56AEB9B3.2020804@aleph.se>

Good point. There seems to be a fair bit of interest in DL hardware, and 
I think we will see ASICs as applications become standardized:
https://www.quora.com/Is-there-any-specialized-hardware-for-deep-learning-algorithms

It is a one-time performance increment, but as you say maybe 3 orders of 
magnitude. Most obvious uses will likely be on the application side 
rather than the more expensive training side, but I think different 
ASICs would be able to boost both legs.

On 2016-01-31 21:52, Brian Atkins wrote:
> On 1/31/2016 1:04 PM, Anders Sandberg wrote:
>>
>> More practically I think the Wired article gets things right: this is 
>> a big deal
>> commercially.
>
> Right. I find an interesting possible parallel with Bitcoin mining 
> hardware. Which obviously has a large economic incentive behind it. 
> Similar to Deep Learning tech, it started out as a CPU algorithm and 
> then eventually moved to GPUs. But then within a short period of 3 to 
> 4 years now has gone through a brief FPGA phase, and after that onto 
> sustained generations of custom ASIC designs that now have pretty much 
> caught up to state of the art Moore's Law (16nm designs being deployed).
>
> So I would expect something like possibly 3 orders of magnitude power 
> efficiency improvements could occur before 2020 as Deep Learning ASICs 
> start to deploy and get quickly improved? And more orders of magnitude 
> of total Deep Learning computing capability on top of that due to 
> simply deploying more hardware overall. Bitcoin mining just recently 
> crossed the exahash/s level... some of that due to ASIC improvements, 
> but a lot due to simply more chips being deployed. Deep Learning 
> takeoff could be an even quicker timeline than with Bitcoin since the 
> companies involved with Deep Learning stuff are much larger and better 
> funded.
>
> large disclaimer: I have no technical knowledge of whether there might 
> be some major difference between Bitcoin mining's hashing algorithm 
> and Deep Learning's typical algorithms that would make DL stuff 
> significantly harder to translate into efficient ASICs.
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Feb  1 02:33:15 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 2016 20:33:15 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Robot cats for companionship
In-Reply-To: <56AE5C48.9020707@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armhQ5TvMsKJffK2NOG6MYZKa3o42GB1iUh=1H6f7TmV0Hw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5C48.9020707@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYx7P+MGAnMsobZMAY=bxDMTK=AtBJtu1qPEFK=s1M79w@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Jan 31, 2016 at 1:11 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> The Paro robot is amazingly hard not to pet. It does not take much to make
> us humans cuddle stuff.
>
> The real question is what it takes to construct high-level companionship.
> Cuddling is a direct physical/emotional activity. Hiroshi Ishiguro has been
> exploring transmitting/creating presence using his Telenoid (plus, earlier,
> telepresence using a Geminoid). But doing things like friendly chatting or
> sitting together may still be tricky.
>
> I was recently in a great conversation with a scholar about the future of
> relationships, where we tried to figure out how much can be predicted about
> making emotional and social connections to robots. Sexbots are hard enough,
> but systems that could develop good enough socioemotional bonds are really
> tricky given our human uncanny valley response - yet, as many people show,
> there are always some people who bond to the strangest entities.


?Briefly there were machines in public places (though where I dunno), that
performed Rogerian therapy. (My memory is not too great on this.)
Extremely easy to program - just take the last statement and put it in the
form of a question.

"I've been rather sad lately"  AI  - "Oh too bad, when did you start
feeling sad?"

I think this idea ran afoul of the APA (psych) and the APA (psychia.) and
so died.

Maybe they didn't like the idea that people could actually get better this
way and take their jobs.  Frankly, with a good enough AI, I think it would
definitely work.  Many people are refreshed by talking to others or even
themselves (if one wanted the ultimate in an empathic listener).

But I think they did establish that people would take these seriously.  A
Turing test of sorts, I suppose.  A great AI might make them forget they
are talking to a machine.

The ultimate of this, as you may know, is the downloading of 'female' AI
spaceship mind into a physical body of a woman in one of Heinlein's last
books.  'She' wanted to experience sex.

bill w


>
>
> On 2016-01-31 17:58, BillK wrote:
>
>> Hasbro has announced a robot cat aimed at companionship for old folk.
>> It only costs 100 USD, so it doesn't do much more than purr when
>> stroked, meow and roll over occasionally.
>> The next few generations should be more capable.
>> (Catching mice???).  :)
>>
>> The robot seal pup Paro that has already been produced for dementia
>> patients costs 5,000 USD, so the cat has a lot of competitive space
>> for improvements.
>>
>> Video here:  (4mins).
>> <
>> http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20160129-are-these-robot-cats-cute-or-creepy-watch-this-and-decide
>> >
>>
>> Review here:
>> <
>> http://uk.businessinsider.com/hasbro-companion-pet-robotic-cat-review-a-strange-but-fun-stuffed-animal-2015-11
>> >
>>
>> BillK
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>
> --
> Anders Sandberg
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Oxford University
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Feb  1 07:33:23 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 02:33:23 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>
References: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3Bvv=Nc5kgyMjuAR8jt3K+xFr8P4ZbF7SKZCfFnXQtXg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Jan 30, 2016 at 11:48 PM, Stuart LaForge <avant at sollegro.com> wrote:


> ?> ?
> the authors are 99% confident that KIC 8462852 has a small companion star.
> The original article can be found here:
> http://arxiv.org/pdf/1509.03622v2.pdf
> They say it is a class M3 red dwarf of about 0.4 solar masses
>

?The luminosity of a star is proportional to its mass cubed so a star of
0.4 solar mass would only be .064 as luminous as the sun. So to be in the
habitable zone a planet would have to be 4 times closer to its sun than the
Earth is. A planet that close would be gravitationally locked with one side
in perpetual day and the other in perpetual night; that might not be an
impossible burden for life but it certainly wouldn't help.

?Even worse with stars that small radiation is not important and convection
is the only energy transport mechanism of any ?significance, and that would
cause solar flares that are much larger and much more common than those
found on our sun; and that could be deadly to life on a planet closer than
Mercury is from our star.

http://scienceillustrated.com.au/blog/science/red-dwarf-stars-are-prone-to-powerful-eruptions/

?> ?
> Red dwarfs are some of the longest lived stars in the universe with
> lifespans of trillions of years, therefore the companion star could be
> older than our sun.
>

?Possible but very very unlikely. Double stars are almost always born at
the same time. If the big star is less than 2 billion years old, and it
must be, then its small companion is almost certainly no older.   ?
 ???

>
> ?I?
> f they exist, why would they have pointed their transmitters at us?


?Because our sun is only ?
1,480 light
? years away and they must know the the sun is an ideal candidate star to
have a life producing planet and have probably even observed Earth in their
telescopes. And it's not like it would be a big deal for them to make such
a transmitter, for goodness sake they're capable of building a Dyson
sphere! Hell even we could make such a transmitter with little difficulty. ?

 John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Mon Feb  1 14:26:38 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 06:26:38 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3Bvv=Nc5kgyMjuAR8jt3K+xFr8P4ZbF7SKZCfFnXQtXg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>
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Message-ID: <004301d15cfc$90943100$b1bc9300$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark



>?A planet that close would be gravitationally locked with one side in perpetual day and the other in perpetual night; that might not be an impossible burden for life but it certainly wouldn't help?

 

 

Ja.  Tide locked planets would have one small advantage for emerging lifeforms however: there would be a twilight ring at the transition between the day side and the night side.  It would be a very limited strip of real estate, but it would have mild temperatures there always and perhaps liquid water, along with perpetual direct sunlight right down on the horizon.

 

I can imagine life is common in those bio-rings, but it never really advances very far.  With all it had going for it, and all this cool real estate everywhere, the life on this planet sat around single-celling and blue-green algae-ing for 3 billion years before gathering enough ambition to join together and do some cool stuff.

 

 

 

>?And it's not like it would be a big deal for them to make such a transmitter, for goodness sake they're capable of building a Dyson sphere! Hell even we could make such a transmitter with little difficulty. ?John K Clark

 

It works the other way too: almost any civilization capable of transmitting signals across stellar space must be also capable of building a Dyson swarm or MBrain.  Our planet is one of the rare ones in that narrow transition, where we can transmit signals across the cosmos but we can?t yet build an MBrain.  John you and I are among the transition people: those who recognize the nature of the narrow time span in which we live.

 

spike

 

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From listsb at infinitefaculty.org  Mon Feb  1 15:34:12 2016
From: listsb at infinitefaculty.org (Brian Manning Delaney)
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 16:34:12 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <004301d15cfc$90943100$b1bc9300$@att.net>
References: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>
 <CAJPayv3Bvv=Nc5kgyMjuAR8jt3K+xFr8P4ZbF7SKZCfFnXQtXg@mail.gmail.com>
 <004301d15cfc$90943100$b1bc9300$@att.net>
Message-ID: <56AF7AF4.2090205@infinitefaculty.org>

El 2016-02-01 a las 15:26, spike escribi?:

> Ja.  Tide locked planets would have one small advantage for emerging
> lifeforms however: there would be a twilight ring at the transition
> between the day side and the night side.  It would be a very limited
> strip of real estate, but it would have mild temperatures there always
> and perhaps liquid water, along with perpetual direct sunlight right
> down on the horizon.
>
> I can imagine life is common in those bio-rings, but it never really
> advances very far.  With all it had going for it, and all this cool real
> estate everywhere, the life on this planet sat around single-celling and
> blue-green algae-ing for 3 billion years before gathering enough
> ambition to join together and do some cool stuff.

Spike, are you saying that the expansiveness of the real estate per se 
-- in the sense of its non-ring-like nature -- is important for the 
development of life (or intelligent life)? Or is it merely that the 
probability of the development of life or intelligent life is a function 
of (among other things) mere quantity of real estate, and a ring has 
much less quantity of real estate than a sphere? The latter makes sense; 
I don't get the former -- i.e., that it would /never/ advance really 
far, as opposed to having lower odds of advancing because of a 
quantitative difference in possibility space.

- Brian



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Feb  1 17:02:42 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 12:02:42 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <004301d15cfc$90943100$b1bc9300$@att.net>
References: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>
 <CAJPayv3Bvv=Nc5kgyMjuAR8jt3K+xFr8P4ZbF7SKZCfFnXQtXg@mail.gmail.com>
 <004301d15cfc$90943100$b1bc9300$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv33ot++NJozw=s_YhR11TdfpFF=SczuAVQ==uC0MVDf_A@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Feb 1, 2016 at 9:26 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:


>?A planet that close would be gravitationally locked with one side in
>> perpetual day and the other in perpetual night; that might not be an
>> impossible burden for life but it certainly wouldn't help?
>
>
> ?> ?
> Ja.  Tide locked planets would have one small advantage for emerging
> lifeforms however: there would be a twilight ring at the transition between
> the day side and the night side.  It would be a very limited strip of real
> estate, but it would have mild temperatures there always and perhaps liquid
> water, along with perpetual direct sunlight right down on the horizon.
>

?But the twilight zone would also be subjected to ferocious winds that
never relent as the hot and cold halfs of the planet try, unsuccessfully,
to equalize their temperature; and that would probably prevent the
evolution of large plants or animals. ?



> >
>> ?>?
>> ?And it's not like it would be a big deal for them to make such a
>> transmitter, for goodness sake they're capable of building a Dyson sphere!
>> Hell even we could make such a transmitter with little difficulty. ?
>>
>
> ?> ?
> It works the other way too: almost any civilization capable of
> transmitting signals across stellar space must be also capable of building
> a Dyson swarm or MBrain.
>

And we have no evidence of a
? ?
transmitted
? ?
signal
? ?
or
?of ?
a MBrain and very little
?for?
 a
? ?
Dyson sphere
?, and that makes me think we may be alone.?


> ?> ?
> Our planet is one of the rare ones in that narrow transition, where we can
> transmit signals across the cosmos but we can?t yet build an MBrain.
>
>
?We may be more than just rare we may be unique, at least in the observable
universe. The multiverse is a different matter.?

  John K Clark









> John you and I are among the transition people: those who recognize the
> nature of the narrow time span in which we live.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From spike66 at att.net  Mon Feb  1 18:23:04 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 10:23:04 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <56AF7AF4.2090205@infinitefaculty.org>
References: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>
 <CAJPayv3Bvv=Nc5kgyMjuAR8jt3K+xFr8P4ZbF7SKZCfFnXQtXg@mail.gmail.com>
 <004301d15cfc$90943100$b1bc9300$@att.net>
 <56AF7AF4.2090205@infinitefaculty.org>
Message-ID: <00bf01d15d1d$98337940$c89a6bc0$@att.net>


-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of Brian Manning Delaney
Sent: Monday, February 01, 2016 7:34 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck

El 2016-02-01 a las 15:26, spike escribi?:

>> Ja.  Tide locked planets would have one small advantage for emerging 
> lifeforms however: there would be a twilight ring at the transition 
> between the day side and the night side...

>...Spike, are you saying that the expansiveness of the real estate per se
-- in the sense of its non-ring-like nature -- is important for the
development of life (or intelligent life)? --- Brian

_______________________________________________

Hard to say Brian, but my notion goes thus.  You and I are lucky enough to
have evolved on a planet which is almost entirely Goldilocks conditions
nearly everywhere.  Water can exist in liquid form everywhere here, a
good-sized planet with a lot of oceans and the goldiest of Goldilocks
conditions.

A tidelocked planet would probably have these conditions somewhere in a ring
in the twilight zone (lower case t, lower case z).  But that might be narrow
(your speculation welcome) and might require some direct starlight and some
shelter, which would further complicate or restrict the formation of life.

Now consider the old days: nothing but single cells things floating around,
skerjillions of them.  Somewhere somehow, two of these started working
together.  There you go, our greatest of great grandparents.  My notion is
that of all these skerjillions of unicellular lifeforms, a pair of them
somewhere did something extremely unlikely: they figured out how to work
together, and you know the rest, the dinosaurs came, got too big and fat so
they turned to oil, then Arabs came along and bought Mercedes Benzes, etc.  

The tidelocked worlds would have a narrow Goldilocks ring with so much less
of the simple lifeforms, it is easy to imagine it just stays right there at
that stage until the local star uses up the last of its hydrogen and goes
red supergiant.

spike






From spike66 at att.net  Mon Feb  1 19:11:44 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 11:11:44 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv33ot++NJozw=s_YhR11TdfpFF=SczuAVQ==uC0MVDf_A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>
 <CAJPayv3Bvv=Nc5kgyMjuAR8jt3K+xFr8P4ZbF7SKZCfFnXQtXg@mail.gmail.com>
 <004301d15cfc$90943100$b1bc9300$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv33ot++NJozw=s_YhR11TdfpFF=SczuAVQ==uC0MVDf_A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00dc01d15d24$64e80c70$2eb82550$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark
Sent: Monday, February 01, 2016 9:03 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck

 

On Mon, Feb 1, 2016 at 9:26 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net <mailto:spike66 at att.net> > wrote:

 

>?A planet that close would be gravitationally locked with one side in perpetual day and the other in perpetual night; that might not be an impossible burden for life but it certainly wouldn't help?

 

?> ?

Ja.  Tide locked planets would have one small advantage for emerging lifeforms however: there would be a twilight ring at the transition between the day side and the night side.  It would be a very limited strip of real estate, but it would have mild temperatures there always and perhaps liquid water, along with perpetual direct sunlight right down on the horizon.

 

?>?But the twilight zone would also be subjected to ferocious winds that never relent as the hot and cold halfs of the planet try, unsuccessfully, to equalize their temperature; and that would probably prevent the evolution of large plants or animals?

 

 

Ja, there is that.  Could be the atmosphere on such a world would be sufficiently tenuous that a strong wind might not amount to much.  Force in a compressible flow varies as the square of the velocity, so we can imagine a steady cold wind of 100 m/sec at 0.1 atmosphere being a force equivalent to 30 m/sec wind here.  That would be a breezy day for sure, but nothing that would stop existing lifeforms here.  Constant sixty mile an hour winds happen here in places.  Very unpleasant, but stuff lives.  

 

Down near the surface the wind patterns would be slower and more chaotic.  Life could evolve under the sea, then make their way up on a harsh blustery landscape.  Liquid water can exist at 0.1 atm.  We can take it further: liquid water can exist at 0.01 atm, so a 100 m/sec of that would be equivalent to a light breeze one would scarcely notice.  

 

As I wrote this, it occurred to me that such a planet would be at nearly 100% humidity everywhere.  Think about it: wind blows from the cool side, hits the twilight zone, starts to warm picks up moisture from any existing seas, density decreases as it goes sunward, air rises, circulates back crossing into darkness again at high altitude, drops the moisture which falls as rain.  That twilight zone would suffer from not only constant cold wind from the dark side, but from a continuous hurricane-force rainstorm, or perhaps blizzard.  Even if the atmosphere is a tenuous .01 atm, it would accelerate and drive that ice and rain like little bullets.

 

OK John, I think you are right: that would be a terrible place to evolve.  The beasts would just stay in the sea.

 

spike 

 ?

 ?

 

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From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Feb  1 21:22:28 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 13:22:28 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <004301d15cfc$90943100$b1bc9300$@att.net>
References: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>
 <CAJPayv3Bvv=Nc5kgyMjuAR8jt3K+xFr8P4ZbF7SKZCfFnXQtXg@mail.gmail.com>
 <004301d15cfc$90943100$b1bc9300$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQNO0HtFOfmF1eyrsg4EUgOo_ZqhidHrMU+yg-Ov7iFyQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Feb 1, 2016 6:41 AM, "spike" <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> It works the other way too: almost any civilization capable of
transmitting signals across stellar space must be also capable of building
a Dyson swarm or MBrain.

Just because a thing is possible does not make it inevitable.

Confusing the two may be useful for contingency planning - making sure
you're prepared in case the worst happens - but it is not useful when
trying to diagnose what has actually occurred.
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From listsb at infinitefaculty.org  Mon Feb  1 22:27:30 2016
From: listsb at infinitefaculty.org (Brian Manning Delaney)
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 23:27:30 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <00bf01d15d1d$98337940$c89a6bc0$@att.net>
References: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>
 <CAJPayv3Bvv=Nc5kgyMjuAR8jt3K+xFr8P4ZbF7SKZCfFnXQtXg@mail.gmail.com>
 <004301d15cfc$90943100$b1bc9300$@att.net>
 <56AF7AF4.2090205@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00bf01d15d1d$98337940$c89a6bc0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <56AFDBD2.8020504@infinitefaculty.org>

El 2016-02-01 a las 19:23, spike escribi?:

> The tidelocked worlds would have a narrow Goldilocks ring with so much less
> of the simple lifeforms, it is easy to imagine it just stays right there at
> that stage until the local star uses up the last of its hydrogen and goes
> red supergiant.


Agreed -- easy to imagine. You'd written "never" (i.e., impossible not 
to imagine) before and I was wondering whether you were thinking there's 
an absolute minimum amount of real estate needed for the odds of complex 
life developing to be greater than zero (or not so close to zero that 
one can, even with gazillions of planets, pretty much rule out the poss. 
of life developing). It sounds like you maybe do partly believe that, 
which I think I get, but seems to me we simply adjust the odds of life 
developing by the ratio of the guestimated area of the ring to an entire 
planet's surface, no? It's likely a big adjustment but it wouldn't mean 
these planets have a zero chance of developing complex life, just 50, or 
100, or maybe 200 times less of a chance. And there seem to be LOTS of 
planets like this. And with a thick enough atmosphere, the band of 
habitability could end up being very wide indeed (with a huge 
circulation cell going all the way around the boundary between night and 
day, doing its best, one hopes somewhat gently, to even things out).

But there are other problems -- solar flares, etc.

- Brian


From spike66 at att.net  Mon Feb  1 23:14:27 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 15:14:27 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <56AFDBD2.8020504@infinitefaculty.org>
References: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>
 <CAJPayv3Bvv=Nc5kgyMjuAR8jt3K+xFr8P4ZbF7SKZCfFnXQtXg@mail.gmail.com>
 <004301d15cfc$90943100$b1bc9300$@att.net>
 <56AF7AF4.2090205@infinitefaculty.org>
 <00bf01d15d1d$98337940$c89a6bc0$@att.net>
 <56AFDBD2.8020504@infinitefaculty.org>
Message-ID: <005f01d15d46$4ccca930$e665fb90$@att.net>

>... On Behalf Of Brian Manning Delaney

>...Agreed -- easy to imagine. You'd written "never" (i.e., impossible not
to imagine) before and I was wondering whether you were thinking there's an
absolute minimum amount of real estate needed for the odds of complex life
developing to be greater than zero (or not so close to zero that one can,
even with gazillions of planets, pretty much rule out the poss. 
of life developing...- Brian
_______________________________________________
 

Oh, ja there is some possibility of advanced lifeforms on a ring world.
Just not much.  I am having a hard time comprehending why this planet sat
here with nothing but algae for most of its history.

spike



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue Feb  2 00:49:27 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 19:49:27 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <00dc01d15d24$64e80c70$2eb82550$@att.net>
References: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>
 <CAJPayv3Bvv=Nc5kgyMjuAR8jt3K+xFr8P4ZbF7SKZCfFnXQtXg@mail.gmail.com>
 <004301d15cfc$90943100$b1bc9300$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <CAJPayv2TDvL6s1P9OrVXJtksn2YNeHtZJ+jA96iP0Ne6CdMxyg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Feb 1, 2016 at 2:11 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:



> ?>?
>   Force in a compressible flow varies as the square of the velocity
>
>
?That's true but ?
it's not really force that causes the problem, it's the work and work is
force over a distance.
?T?
he power of the wind is proportional to the cube of the wind speed not the
square.?

?It's true that if you double the speed each individual oxygen and nitrogen
molecule would have 4 times the energy, but you'd have 2 times as many
molecules pass through a unit area in the same amount of ?time and twice as
many particles each with 4 times the energy makes 8.
So a 126 mph wind would produce twice as much damage as a 100 mph wind
? and a 144 mph wind 3 times as much and a 159 mph 4 times as much.?
.


> > As I wrote this, it occurred to me that such a planet would be at nearly
> 100% humidity everywhere.  Think about it: wind blows from the cool side,
> hits the twilight zone, starts to warm picks up moisture from any existing
> seas, density decreases as it goes sunward, air rises, circulates back
> crossing into darkness again at high altitude, drops the moisture which
> falls as rain.  That twilight zone would suffer from not only constant cold
> wind from the dark side, but from a continuous hurricane-force rainstorm,
> or perhaps blizzard.  Even if the atmosphere is a tenuous .01 atm, it would
> accelerate and drive that ice and rain like little bullets.


?Good point, and with 100% humidity it would be hard for large animals to
keep cool during periods of high exertion. ?

? John K Clark?
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From anders at aleph.se  Tue Feb  2 01:57:19 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 01:57:19 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
In-Reply-To: <00dc01d15d24$64e80c70$2eb82550$@att.net>
References: <2h70emyq024kcfs45skymqqe.1454215486549@email.android.com>
 <CAJPayv3Bvv=Nc5kgyMjuAR8jt3K+xFr8P4ZbF7SKZCfFnXQtXg@mail.gmail.com>
 <004301d15cfc$90943100$b1bc9300$@att.net>
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 <00dc01d15d24$64e80c70$2eb82550$@att.net>
Message-ID: <56B00CFF.3010001@aleph.se>

Generally, astrobiologists and planetologists are getting more 
optimistic about habitability of this kind of world:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1012.1883.pdf
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1510/1510.03484.pdf

Tidally locked waterworlds have fairly moderate temperatures:
http://arxiv.org/abs/1001.5117
and can avoid dessication:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1411.0540.pdf

Also, just because it is tidally locked does not mean it has no days:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1006.2503.pdf

On 2016-02-01 19:11, spike wrote:
>
> *From:*extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] 
> *On Behalf Of *John Clark
> *Sent:* Monday, February 01, 2016 9:03 AM
> *To:* ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Gaian Bottleneck
>
> On Mon, Feb 1, 2016 at 9:26 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net 
> <mailto:spike66 at att.net>> wrote:
>
>         >?A planet that close would be gravitationally locked with one
>         side in perpetual day and the other in perpetual night; that
>         might not be an impossible burden for life but it certainly
>         wouldn't help?
>
>     ? > ?
>
>     Ja.  Tide locked planets would have one small advantage for
>     emerging lifeforms however: there would be a twilight ring at the
>     transition between the day side and the night side. It would be a
>     very limited strip of real estate, but it would have mild
>     temperatures there always and perhaps liquid water, along with
>     perpetual direct sunlight right down on the horizon.
>
> ?>?But the twilight zone would also be subjected to ferocious winds 
> that never relent as the hot and cold halfs of the planet try, 
> unsuccessfully, to equalize their temperature; and that would probably 
> prevent the evolution of large plants or animals?
>
> Ja, there is that.  Could be the atmosphere on such a world would be 
> sufficiently tenuous that a strong wind might not amount to much.  
> Force in a compressible flow varies as the square of the velocity, so 
> we can imagine a steady cold wind of 100 m/sec at 0.1 atmosphere being 
> a force equivalent to 30 m/sec wind here.  That would be a breezy day 
> for sure, but nothing that would stop existing lifeforms here.  
> Constant sixty mile an hour winds happen here in places.  Very 
> unpleasant, but stuff lives.
>
> Down near the surface the wind patterns would be slower and more 
> chaotic.  Life could evolve under the sea, then make their way up on a 
> harsh blustery landscape.  Liquid water can exist at 0.1 atm.  We can 
> take it further: liquid water can exist at 0.01 atm, so a 100 m/sec of 
> that would be equivalent to a light breeze one would scarcely notice.
>
> As I wrote this, it occurred to me that such a planet would be at 
> nearly 100% humidity everywhere. Think about it: wind blows from the 
> cool side, hits the twilight zone, starts to warm picks up moisture 
> from any existing seas, density decreases as it goes sunward, air 
> rises, circulates back crossing into darkness again at high altitude, 
> drops the moisture which falls as rain.  That twilight zone would 
> suffer from not only constant cold wind from the dark side, but from a 
> continuous hurricane-force rainstorm, or perhaps blizzard.  Even if 
> the atmosphere is a tenuous .01 atm, it would accelerate and drive 
> that ice and rain like little bullets.
>
> OK John, I think you are right: that would be a terrible place to 
> evolve.  The beasts would just stay in the sea.
>
> spike
>
> ?
>
> ?
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From max at maxmore.com  Tue Feb  2 06:41:53 2016
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 23:41:53 -0700
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
In-Reply-To: <003501d1562d$09fbd0b0$1df37210$@att.net>
References: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjq=YUM3Kq=2JQma0kWc+VOM+QNVu6x_-bDm=mTeFh9BA@mail.gmail.com>
 <002001d15625$0fb4f070$2f1ed150$@att.net>
 <CAL_armih6TAtX=ZHvQ2YhAtBkPrQsL-b34HUz4zNJ15v57t87g@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAJX-7wU8jv_5HJHx33HNeFKVKoLuNDTf97UzdDvYjwqtznWfZQ@mail.gmail.com>

Please! Body transplant, not head transplant. Transplanting someone's head
onto your body means that you dead.

If you are signed up for the neuro procedure in cryonics, when we do the
separation we are not decapitating you, we are...desomatizing you. (Is
there an existing word for what I mean?)

--Max
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From col.hales at gmail.com  Tue Feb  2 07:00:29 2016
From: col.hales at gmail.com (colin hales)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 18:00:29 +1100
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wU8jv_5HJHx33HNeFKVKoLuNDTf97UzdDvYjwqtznWfZQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjq=YUM3Kq=2JQma0kWc+VOM+QNVu6x_-bDm=mTeFh9BA@mail.gmail.com>
 <002001d15625$0fb4f070$2f1ed150$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <56b0541b.4d56620a.7beda.ffff8bf8@mx.google.com>

Some days I wish there was a "like" button here.

-----Original Message-----
From: "Max More" <max at maxmore.com>
Sent: ?2/?02/?2016 5:43 PM
To: "ExI chat list" <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] head transplant again

Please! Body transplant, not head transplant. Transplanting someone's head onto your body means that you dead.
If you are signed up for the neuro procedure in cryonics, when we do the separation we are not decapitating you, we are...desomatizing you. (Is there an existing word for what I mean?) 
--Max
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From listsb at infinitefaculty.org  Tue Feb  2 10:17:36 2016
From: listsb at infinitefaculty.org (Brian Manning Delaney)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 11:17:36 +0100
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
In-Reply-To: <56b0541b.4d56620a.7beda.ffff8bf8@mx.google.com>
References: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjq=YUM3Kq=2JQma0kWc+VOM+QNVu6x_-bDm=mTeFh9BA@mail.gmail.com>
 <002001d15625$0fb4f070$2f1ed150$@att.net>
 <CAL_armih6TAtX=ZHvQ2YhAtBkPrQsL-b34HUz4zNJ15v57t87g@mail.gmail.com>
 <003501d1562d$09fbd0b0$1df37210$@att.net>
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 <56b0541b.4d56620a.7beda.ffff8bf8@mx.google.com>
Message-ID: <56B08240.4050206@infinitefaculty.org>

El 2016-02-02 a las 08:00, colin hales escribi?:
> Some days I wish there was a "like" button here.

Was thinking the same thing in response to Max's post (thus, also: 
"like!", or "meta-like", to your post!). Interesting -- though of course 
in no way surprising -- how social media are rewiring us in so many ways.

- Brian



From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Feb  2 13:15:33 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 13:15:33 +0000
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
In-Reply-To: <56B08240.4050206@infinitefaculty.org>
References: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjq=YUM3Kq=2JQma0kWc+VOM+QNVu6x_-bDm=mTeFh9BA@mail.gmail.com>
 <002001d15625$0fb4f070$2f1ed150$@att.net>
 <CAL_armih6TAtX=ZHvQ2YhAtBkPrQsL-b34HUz4zNJ15v57t87g@mail.gmail.com>
 <003501d1562d$09fbd0b0$1df37210$@att.net>
 <CAJX-7wU8jv_5HJHx33HNeFKVKoLuNDTf97UzdDvYjwqtznWfZQ@mail.gmail.com>
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 <56B08240.4050206@infinitefaculty.org>
Message-ID: <CAL_armh5eE2QfQmWK-WFNQ9ig4ZdNSboc-u-1pg3oL5n74La5w@mail.gmail.com>

On 2 February 2016 at 10:17, Brian Manning Delaney  wrote:
> El 2016-02-02 a las 08:00, colin hales escribi?:
>> Some days I wish there was a "like" button here.
>
>
> Was thinking the same thing in response to Max's post (thus, also: "like!",
> or "meta-like", to your post!). Interesting -- though of course in no way
> surprising -- how social media are rewiring us in so many ways.
>


Of course there is still debate about how much 'you' will still be
'you' in a different body.
The ethics crowd have already been having a go at the problem.

Suppose a 10-stone weakling gets a 20-stone testosterone-charged body.
How will he change? And vice-versa.
Or a body with allergies? Or muscle memories, like piano-playing, or
tap-dancing, or much increased / reduced sex drive? Will left-handed
become right-handed?

I would expect changes to personality, so that in a few years the
patient will be a different 'you'.

BillK



From rhanson at gmu.edu  Mon Feb  1 16:00:10 2016
From: rhanson at gmu.edu (Robin D Hanson)
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 2016 16:00:10 +0000
Subject: [ExI]
 =?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
 =?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>


On Jan 31, 2016, at 2:04 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se<mailto:anders at aleph.se>> wrote:

On 2016-01-31 18:25, John Clark wrote:
<http://www.wired.com/2016/01/googles-go-victory-is-just-a-glimpse-of-how-powerful-ai-will-be/?mbid=nl_13116>http://www.wired.com/2016/01/googles-go-victory-is-just-a-glimpse-of-how-powerful-ai-will-be/?mbid=nl_13116

Around here the big topic has been how much this implies about future AI progress. Much has been made of that domain experts were suprised by how fast it went, but given Armstrong & Sotala's results, I would not be too shocked: experts are bad at prediction.

I think Eliezer has a relevant point: he is concerned that "Human neural intelligence is not that complicated and current algorithms are touching on keystone, foundational aspects of it." - i.e. we may have found a general tool in deep learning that reduces the "to do" list of AGI by at least one line (out of an unknown number).

More practically I think the Wired article gets things right: this is a big deal commercially. Solving tricky value functions is worth money - and if they do generalize to hand-eye coordination, then we will have a practical robot revolution. But even merely software good value functions might be a huge deal when applied to logistics and other kinds of planning. Or advertising.

If this is a big deal commercially, it is odd that release of this news didn?t bump the google stock price, nor the value of the tech sector as a whole. Not sure it has bumped the price of any identifiable related commercial sector.

Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu<mailto:rhanson at gmu.edu>
Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford University
Assoc. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
See my new book: http://ageofem.com









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From msd001 at gmail.com  Tue Feb  2 13:54:03 2016
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 08:54:03 -0500
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armh5eE2QfQmWK-WFNQ9ig4ZdNSboc-u-1pg3oL5n74La5w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>
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 <002001d15625$0fb4f070$2f1ed150$@att.net>
 <CAL_armih6TAtX=ZHvQ2YhAtBkPrQsL-b34HUz4zNJ15v57t87g@mail.gmail.com>
 <003501d1562d$09fbd0b0$1df37210$@att.net>
 <CAJX-7wU8jv_5HJHx33HNeFKVKoLuNDTf97UzdDvYjwqtznWfZQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56b0541b.4d56620a.7beda.ffff8bf8@mx.google.com>
 <56B08240.4050206@infinitefaculty.org>
 <CAL_armh5eE2QfQmWK-WFNQ9ig4ZdNSboc-u-1pg3oL5n74La5w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbLJd+scOrWetScn8uctCsvTkx89dk2xsLMdhbhAhJBrtA@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Feb 2, 2016 at 8:15 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> Suppose a 10-stone weakling gets a 20-stone testosterone-charged body.
> How will he change? And vice-versa.
> Or a body with allergies? Or muscle memories, like piano-playing, or
> tap-dancing, or much increased / reduced sex drive? Will left-handed
> become right-handed?
>
> I would expect changes to personality, so that in a few years the
> patient will be a different 'you'.

Suppose you change from sneakers to boots, are you still the same
"you" ?  If you are measuring your identity by terrain-capability,
then perhaps you have.  In that case you 'become' a different person
while wearing an exoskeleton (or, similarly, while driving a car);
while wearing oven mitts (capable of holding hot items without
burning); while using a calculator to do math (vs. bare-brained);
after eating a large pasta or turkey dinner; etc.

This identity question seems to polarize into answers where "you" (or
"I") am some ineffable soul-force that exists outside the machinery or
every piece of hardware and software that you may access is hashed
into the pronoun.  We might agree that "you" are the skills you
possess.  Then 'I' ask to join 'your' network on LinkedIn because the
extended "you" includes the other people to whom 'you' can introduce
'me.'   (pronouns emphasized to illustrate how unconsciously we apply
these fuzzy boundaries around identity)


From brian at posthuman.com  Tue Feb  2 14:58:53 2016
From: brian at posthuman.com (Brian Atkins)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 08:58:53 -0600
Subject: [ExI]
 =?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
 =?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
Message-ID: <56B0C42D.9000905@posthuman.com>

On 2/1/2016 10:00 AM, Robin D Hanson wrote:
>
> If this is a big deal commercially, it is odd that release of this news didn?t
> bump the google stock price, nor the value of the tech sector as a whole. Not
> sure it has bumped the price of any identifiable related commercial sector.
>

I believe the market had a down day last Wednesday, however GOOG outperformed 
the market average that day. And on the days after that it also outperformed 
most stocks, to now become the most valuable company according to some news 
headlines I saw yesterday. It looks like for example it significantly 
outperformed AAPL in the time period since this Go news broke?


From alito at organicrobot.com  Tue Feb  2 14:14:50 2016
From: alito at organicrobot.com (Alejandro Dubrovsky)
Date: Wed, 3 Feb 2016 01:14:50 +1100
Subject: [ExI]
 =?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
 =?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
Message-ID: <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>

On 02/02/16 03:00, Robin D Hanson wrote:
>
>> On Jan 31, 2016, at 2:04 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se
>> <mailto:anders at aleph.se>> wrote:
>>
>> On 2016-01-31 18:25, John Clark wrote:
>>> <http://www.wired.com/2016/01/googles-go-victory-is-just-a-glimpse-of-how-powerful-ai-will-be/?mbid=nl_13116>http://www.wired.com/2016/01/googles-go-victory-is-just-a-glimpse-of-how-powerful-ai-will-be/?mbid=nl_13116
>>
>> Around here the big topic has been how much this implies about future
>> AI progress. Much has been made of that domain experts were suprised
>> by how fast it went, but given Armstrong & Sotala's results, I would
>> not be too shocked: experts are bad at prediction.
>>
>> I think Eliezer has a relevant point: he is concerned that "Human
>> neural intelligence is not that complicated and current algorithms are
>> touching on keystone, foundational aspects of it." - i.e. we may have
>> found a general tool in deep learning that reduces the "to do" list of
>> AGI by at least one line (out of an unknown number).
>>
>> More practically I think the Wired article gets things right: this is
>> a big deal commercially. Solving tricky value functions is worth money
>> - and if they do generalize to hand-eye coordination, then we will
>> have a practical robot revolution. But even merely software good value
>> functions might be a huge deal when applied to logistics and other
>> kinds of planning. Or advertising.
>
> If this is a big deal commercially, it is odd that release of this news
> didn?t bump the google stock price, nor the value of the tech sector as
> a whole. Not sure it has bumped the price of any identifiable related
> commercial sector.
>
The games were played back in October, and insiders would have known 
that it was doing remarkably well even before that.

Here's Nvidia's stock price:
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NVDA&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=



From rhanson at gmu.edu  Tue Feb  2 16:18:00 2016
From: rhanson at gmu.edu (Robin D Hanson)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 16:18:00 +0000
Subject: [ExI]
 =?windows-1252?q?Google=92s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of?=
 =?windows-1252?q?_How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
Message-ID: <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>


>>> More practically I think the Wired article gets things right: this is
>>> a big deal commercially. Solving tricky value functions is worth money
>>> - and if they do generalize to hand-eye coordination, then we will
>>> have a practical robot revolution. But even merely software good value
>>> functions might be a huge deal when applied to logistics and other
>>> kinds of planning. Or advertising.
>> 
>> If this is a big deal commercially, it is odd that release of this news
>> didn?t bump the google stock price, nor the value of the tech sector as
>> a whole. Not sure it has bumped the price of any identifiable related
>> commercial sector.

Alejandro Dubrovsky <alito at organicrobot.com> wrote: 
> The games were played back in October, and insiders would have known that it was doing remarkably well even before that.
> Here's Nvidia's stock price:
> https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NVDA&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Brian Atkins <brian at posthuman.com> wrote:
> I believe the market had a down day last Wednesday, however GOOG outperformed the market average that day. And on the days after that it also outperformed most stocks, to now become the most valuable company according to some news headlines I saw yesterday. It looks like for example it significantly outperformed AAPL in the time period since this Go news broke?


Even if we could credit the entire gain from mid October to this one tech advance, a pretty heroic assumption, that would still only let us attribute a few tens of billions of present value of future profit to this tech. World product today is about $100T, and present value of future product is >20X more. So at best this one part in ~100,000 of future world value. Not nothing, but remotely what one would expect if this were indicating that full human level AI is coming soon. 

(And why do my posts keep taking a day to appear here?)

Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu 
Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford University
Assoc. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
See my new book: http://ageofem.com












From brian at posthuman.com  Tue Feb  2 17:03:42 2016
From: brian at posthuman.com (Brian Atkins)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 11:03:42 -0600
Subject: [ExI]
 =?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
 =?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
Message-ID: <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>

A blog I read called Political Calculations uses dividend futures data to try 
and predict the market's upcoming behavior. Based on his work, the overall mass 
of market participants seem to have a very near term view, for example in this 
recent post he is discussing how most investors seem focused on 2016 Q1 and Q2 
dividend data:

http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2016/02/exploiting-future-for-s-500-in-week-4.html

So is it realistic to expect the market as a whole to react to something that, 
at best, is multiple years away?

Perhaps your upcoming book will start to get the word out more. In the meantime 
I agree with Alejandro that investors focused more on specific stocks like GOOG 
and NVDA may be a bit more willing to invest based on longer term horizons, 
leading to the significant outperformance in those companies since October.


From spike66 at att.net  Tue Feb  2 17:26:37 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 09:26:37 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Google's Go Victory Is Just a Glimpse of How Powerful AI
	Will Be
In-Reply-To: <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
Message-ID: <00da01d15dde$dfda65d0$9f8f3170$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of Robin D Hanson
Subject: Re: [ExI] Google's Go Victory Is Just a Glimpse of How Powerful AI
Will Be
...

Alejandro Dubrovsky <alito at organicrobot.com> wrote: 
>> The games were played back in October, and insiders would have known that
it was doing remarkably well even before that...

The AI hipsters may educate me on this please.  We in the chess world
watched in amazement as computers overtook humanity.  Club players know the
typical trajectory of a hardcore player: some advance quickly, then level
off, some keep going and level off, but computers advanced far more steadily
over the years than humans do.  

We who were watching that in the 90s kept assuming the software would level
off indefinitely at about the low end of the grandmaster level, where
arbitrary additional computing power just couldn't overcome human intuition.
Well, we were wrong.  Computer strength kept climbing right through
grandmaster and is still climbing.  Even those who watched the whole process
from back in the 1970s were astonished and were consistently wrong in our
predictions.  I blew it over and over.

Our appalling conclusion: chess does not require intelligence.

>...(And why do my posts keep taking a day to appear here?)

Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu

I have heard this before from some servers, and we have never discovered
why.  Robin does it always take that long, or is it inconsistent?

Sometimes my posts are delayed by a few hours but seldom or never a full
day.  I don't see anything funky with your account.

spike



_______________________________________________





From rhanson at gmu.edu  Tue Feb  2 18:21:59 2016
From: rhanson at gmu.edu (Robin D Hanson)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 18:21:59 +0000
Subject: [ExI]
 =?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
 =?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
Message-ID: <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>


On Feb 2, 2016, at 12:03 PM, Brian Atkins <brian at posthuman.com> wrote:
> A blog I read called Political Calculations uses dividend futures data to try and predict the market's upcoming behavior. Based on his work, the overall mass of market participants seem to have a very near term view, for example in this recent post he is discussing how most investors seem focused on 2016 Q1 and Q2 dividend data:
> 
> http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2016/02/exploiting-future-for-s-500-in-week-4.html
> 
> So is it realistic to expect the market as a whole to react to something that, at best, is multiple years away?

There is a HUGE literature that looks for biases in financial market prices. Such biases are often found, but they are typically small, and if not typically go away fast once publicized. The main known bias is excess long term volatility. But that wouldn?t explain any particular mispricing. If there was huge consistent bias to ignore the future we?d know about it, and we don?t. 

> Perhaps your upcoming book will start to get the word out more. In the meantime I agree with Alejandro that investors focused more on specific stocks like GOOG and NVDA may be a bit more willing to invest based on longer term horizons, leading to the significant outperformance in those companies since October.

?since October? is WAY to short a time to see the effect of investing based on longer term horizons.

Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu 
Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford University
Assoc. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
See my new book: http://ageofem.com












From spike66 at att.net  Tue Feb  2 18:48:04 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 10:48:04 -0800
Subject: [ExI]
	=?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
	=?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
 <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>
Message-ID: <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Robin D Hanson
...

>...There is a HUGE literature that looks for biases in financial market prices...
Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu

_______________________________________________



Hi Robin, 

Your name is being taken in vain (but in a good way; people aren't yet going around exclaiming Robin-dammit or anything.)

That whole notion of ideas futures which you drove a long time ago is really big stuff in political elections, like the one which was kicked off yesterday in Iowa.  I watched those share prices do what they do in elections.  A prominent real-money version is PredictIt.

https://www.predictit.org/

The PredictIt people realized that the most this whole notion is ever used is around politics.  

Most entertaining thing I have seen in a long Hanson-damn time.

spike




From spike66 at att.net  Tue Feb  2 18:54:34 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 10:54:34 -0800
Subject: [ExI] phobia again - NYT
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEYiSAoepzcr0AeVhRw3V=1sgsuG6-JYo0qeFHtVE3BwNg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEYiSAoepzcr0AeVhRw3V=1sgsuG6-JYo0qeFHtVE3BwNg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <000801d15deb$295cf270$7c16d750$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace
Sent: Sunday, January 31, 2016 10:12 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: [ExI] phobia again - NYT

 

The NYT magazine has a story about xenophobia, strongly following what I posted a few weeks ago.

Before I write a comment to them, let me ask this:

Is 'phobia' in your mind tied to neurosis or mild mental illness?  Or has it entered the mainstream and can be used, like 'fatphobia', without implying a mental disease?

The article agrees with us that -phobia is mostly incorrect when one really means 'hate'.  

bill w

 

 

Hi BillW,

 

I don?t and never have equated the term phobia with mental illness.  The term has been stretched and used for so many things, it has become just a general term.  We have laborophobia for slackers for instance.  That isn?t crazy or weird, just lazy.

 

Really when you think about it, even the phobias that really are mental illnesses often have a plausible healthy tissue biological explanation.  Arachnophobia is common even if the person knows a particular species of spider is harmless.

 

I see something I think is possible arachnophobia in non-human beasts.  For some odd reason, cockroaches inspire fear in some dogs, even though there is not one thing that roach can do to cause harm.  It is ugly (to some people and some dogs) but they can?t hurt you.  Perhaps they sorta resemble spiders?  Clearly that is instinct rather than mental illness.

 

spike 

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Tue Feb  2 21:05:44 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 15:05:44 -0600
Subject: [ExI] crashes
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbqV=+BzvJEZCzqYPtYJhrCKsL=0NJGgsTa8qFDWvZzSA@mail.gmail.com>

Has anyone had any experience with crashes producing the MACHINE CHECK
EXCEPTION error?

Thanks!

bill w
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From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Feb  2 21:31:26 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 21:31:26 +0000
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbLJd+scOrWetScn8uctCsvTkx89dk2xsLMdhbhAhJBrtA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjq=YUM3Kq=2JQma0kWc+VOM+QNVu6x_-bDm=mTeFh9BA@mail.gmail.com>
 <002001d15625$0fb4f070$2f1ed150$@att.net>
 <CAL_armih6TAtX=ZHvQ2YhAtBkPrQsL-b34HUz4zNJ15v57t87g@mail.gmail.com>
 <003501d1562d$09fbd0b0$1df37210$@att.net>
 <CAJX-7wU8jv_5HJHx33HNeFKVKoLuNDTf97UzdDvYjwqtznWfZQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56b0541b.4d56620a.7beda.ffff8bf8@mx.google.com>
 <56B08240.4050206@infinitefaculty.org>
 <CAL_armh5eE2QfQmWK-WFNQ9ig4ZdNSboc-u-1pg3oL5n74La5w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAOJFdbLJd+scOrWetScn8uctCsvTkx89dk2xsLMdhbhAhJBrtA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhQaUHFwhBt4fP__Wrg1cz0csZoYxJMo8zMYbYr0=HvPQ@mail.gmail.com>

On 2 February 2016 at 13:54, Mike Dougherty  wrote:
> Suppose you change from sneakers to boots, are you still the same
> "you" ?  If you are measuring your identity by terrain-capability,
> then perhaps you have.  In that case you 'become' a different person
> while wearing an exoskeleton (or, similarly, while driving a car);
> while wearing oven mitts (capable of holding hot items without
> burning); while using a calculator to do math (vs. bare-brained);
> after eating a large pasta or turkey dinner; etc.
>
> This identity question seems to polarize into answers where "you" (or
> "I") am some ineffable soul-force that exists outside the machinery or
> every piece of hardware and software that you may access is hashed
> into the pronoun.
<snip>


What you are describing would apply to putting a human brain in a robot body.
Changing between robot bodies would be like driving a different car.
No problem really, and the 'you' resident in the brain wouldn't change
much.

But human bodies are not like robot bodies. They contain a
ridiculously complex system of glands and hormones in a feedback
system between parts of the body and the brain. The brain will be
changed by the flood of new hormones and different body responses.
Crazy things can happen when the hormone system screws up.
I doubt that it will be as simple as putting a new suit on.

BillK


From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Feb  2 21:39:18 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 21:39:18 +0000
Subject: [ExI] crashes
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbqV=+BzvJEZCzqYPtYJhrCKsL=0NJGgsTa8qFDWvZzSA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbqV=+BzvJEZCzqYPtYJhrCKsL=0NJGgsTa8qFDWvZzSA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhcUDMa5-LHKQoh5tO-QMVUu_hZXx8OOG+-LruuBvN5xw@mail.gmail.com>

On 2 February 2016 at 21:05, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
> Has anyone had any experience with crashes producing the MACHINE CHECK
> EXCEPTION error?
>

First question - Have you changed anything?  :)
Usually a hardware error of some kind. Can be difficult to solve. If
you have installed any new cards or devices then they may be faulty,
or you need the latest driver software. Perhaps some memory chips or a
connected device has failed.

BillK


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Tue Feb  2 21:48:26 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 15:48:26 -0600
Subject: [ExI] crashes
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhcUDMa5-LHKQoh5tO-QMVUu_hZXx8OOG+-LruuBvN5xw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbqV=+BzvJEZCzqYPtYJhrCKsL=0NJGgsTa8qFDWvZzSA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhcUDMa5-LHKQoh5tO-QMVUu_hZXx8OOG+-LruuBvN5xw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEagWS3DkbCauKHtgZFTLHDmOo0OtxASRKDqjjEDwYCpQg@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Feb 2, 2016 at 3:39 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On 2 February 2016 at 21:05, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
> > Has anyone had any experience with crashes producing the MACHINE CHECK
> > EXCEPTION error?
> >
>
> First question - Have you changed anything?  :)
> Usually a hardware error of some kind. Can be difficult to solve. If
> you have installed any new cards or devices then they may be faulty,
> or you need the latest driver software. Perhaps some memory chips or a
> connected device has failed.
>
> BillK
>

?Thanks, Bill K - it sounds to me like it's time for a computer shop
tuneup, as little of what you suggested is in my ability to fix.?

?

Could it be a hard drive dying?

bill w?

> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Tue Feb  2 21:55:39 2016
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 13:55:39 -0800
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB5A2TEiMPt2cYc4OR9FdL5+ceyu8dWqnJA1YYE+-2Z1pQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Feb 2, 2016 at 9:40 AM,  Max More <max at maxmore.com> wrote:

> Please! Body transplant, not head transplant. Transplanting someone's head
> onto your body means that you dead.

I have heard it said that in a brain transplant, you want to be the donor.

Keith


From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Feb  2 22:17:07 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 22:17:07 +0000
Subject: [ExI] crashes
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEagWS3DkbCauKHtgZFTLHDmOo0OtxASRKDqjjEDwYCpQg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbqV=+BzvJEZCzqYPtYJhrCKsL=0NJGgsTa8qFDWvZzSA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhcUDMa5-LHKQoh5tO-QMVUu_hZXx8OOG+-LruuBvN5xw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEagWS3DkbCauKHtgZFTLHDmOo0OtxASRKDqjjEDwYCpQg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjCh7a7o+2raiVoey5NLqHXfcXsAt8bfFm9Y9HFTAWd4Q@mail.gmail.com>

On 2 February 2016 at 21:48, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
> Thanks, Bill K - it sounds to me like it's time for a computer shop tuneup,
> as little of what you suggested is in my ability to fix.
>
> Could it be a hard drive dying?
>

It could be any connected device. The usual problem solving technique
is to disconnect or replace one thing at a time and see if the error
goes away.

If you are going to a computer shop the repair could be expensive if
it takes a while to solve. Get an estimate first! If your computer is
old, buying a new machine could be the better option.
You could ask the shop to copy your files off your old hard drive (if
it still works). He can do this by removing the hard drive and
connecting it to another computer.

But he might be lucky and find the fault quickly.

Best of luck!   BillK


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Tue Feb  2 23:00:40 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 17:00:40 -0600
Subject: [ExI] crashes
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjCh7a7o+2raiVoey5NLqHXfcXsAt8bfFm9Y9HFTAWd4Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbqV=+BzvJEZCzqYPtYJhrCKsL=0NJGgsTa8qFDWvZzSA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhcUDMa5-LHKQoh5tO-QMVUu_hZXx8OOG+-LruuBvN5xw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEagWS3DkbCauKHtgZFTLHDmOo0OtxASRKDqjjEDwYCpQg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjCh7a7o+2raiVoey5NLqHXfcXsAt8bfFm9Y9HFTAWd4Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEby_DOKhnF+2r4kRLQXbC=Cbn_RgC8Jgiig==gU60=Drg@mail.gmail.com>

Toshiba laptop, about 5 years old.  Hate to buy a new one because I have
the OED on my drive and presumably it cannot be copied to a new one.  I
called a shop and they were evasive.  Good work before by them, though.

There is nothing currently connected to this PC.  I did try to install a HP
laserjet which I never did get to work even with the DVD, but it printed
anyway.  Hmm.  But I disconnected the usb cord until I can find a way to
install it as a wireless device.

Maybe I'll just bite the bullet and get some kind of Apple.  bill w

On Tue, Feb 2, 2016 at 4:17 PM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On 2 February 2016 at 21:48, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
> > Thanks, Bill K - it sounds to me like it's time for a computer shop
> tuneup,
> > as little of what you suggested is in my ability to fix.
> >
> > Could it be a hard drive dying?
> >
>
> It could be any connected device. The usual problem solving technique
> is to disconnect or replace one thing at a time and see if the error
> goes away.
>
> If you are going to a computer shop the repair could be expensive if
> it takes a while to solve. Get an estimate first! If your computer is
> old, buying a new machine could be the better option.
> You could ask the shop to copy your files off your old hard drive (if
> it still works). He can do this by removing the hard drive and
> connecting it to another computer.
>
> But he might be lucky and find the fault quickly.
>
> Best of luck!   BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Feb  2 23:26:15 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 23:26:15 +0000
Subject: [ExI] crashes
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEby_DOKhnF+2r4kRLQXbC=Cbn_RgC8Jgiig==gU60=Drg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbqV=+BzvJEZCzqYPtYJhrCKsL=0NJGgsTa8qFDWvZzSA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhcUDMa5-LHKQoh5tO-QMVUu_hZXx8OOG+-LruuBvN5xw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEagWS3DkbCauKHtgZFTLHDmOo0OtxASRKDqjjEDwYCpQg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjCh7a7o+2raiVoey5NLqHXfcXsAt8bfFm9Y9HFTAWd4Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEby_DOKhnF+2r4kRLQXbC=Cbn_RgC8Jgiig==gU60=Drg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhaDAR8ARCE_3tVK8T5CamG4AjCHGDURnDX_fE4evo6Fg@mail.gmail.com>

On 2 February 2016 at 23:00, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
> Toshiba laptop, about 5 years old.  Hate to buy a new one because I have the
> OED on my drive and presumably it cannot be copied to a new one.  I called a
> shop and they were evasive.  Good work before by them, though.
>
> There is nothing currently connected to this PC.  I did try to install a HP
> laserjet which I never did get to work even with the DVD, but it printed
> anyway.  Hmm.  But I disconnected the usb cord until I can find a way to
> install it as a wireless device.
>
> Maybe I'll just bite the bullet and get some kind of Apple.  bill w
>


I'm not surprised they are evasive. :)  After 5 years the fault could
be almost anything.
Apple computers are much more expensive, but usually less trouble than Win pcs.

Compare costs and consider getting another Win laptop. The hard disk
can easily be slid out of the old laptop and you can buy a 'disk
caddy' (a small case) for it and connect it to the new laptop as an
external disk drive. Assuming that the drive is not faulty you should
be able to read it OK.

BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Tue Feb  2 23:18:34 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 15:18:34 -0800
Subject: [ExI] crashes
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbqV=+BzvJEZCzqYPtYJhrCKsL=0NJGgsTa8qFDWvZzSA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbqV=+BzvJEZCzqYPtYJhrCKsL=0NJGgsTa8qFDWvZzSA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <007e01d15e10$0aa22060$1fe66120$@att.net>

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace
Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2016 1:06 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: [ExI] crashes

 

Has anyone had any experience with crashes producing the MACHINE CHECK EXCEPTION error?

Thanks!

bill w

 

Cool, I learned a new thing this day.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine-check_exception

 

spike

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From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Feb  3 03:01:38 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 19:01:38 -0800
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armh5eE2QfQmWK-WFNQ9ig4ZdNSboc-u-1pg3oL5n74La5w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjq=YUM3Kq=2JQma0kWc+VOM+QNVu6x_-bDm=mTeFh9BA@mail.gmail.com>
 <002001d15625$0fb4f070$2f1ed150$@att.net>
 <CAL_armih6TAtX=ZHvQ2YhAtBkPrQsL-b34HUz4zNJ15v57t87g@mail.gmail.com>
 <003501d1562d$09fbd0b0$1df37210$@att.net>
 <CAJX-7wU8jv_5HJHx33HNeFKVKoLuNDTf97UzdDvYjwqtznWfZQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56b0541b.4d56620a.7beda.ffff8bf8@mx.google.com>
 <56B08240.4050206@infinitefaculty.org>
 <CAL_armh5eE2QfQmWK-WFNQ9ig4ZdNSboc-u-1pg3oL5n74La5w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSRFBJgpzYBcwhbkLW5CGS8OZAp4JZhQnoV5mrNRC76vw@mail.gmail.com>

On Feb 2, 2016 5:17 AM, "BillK" <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
> Of course there is still debate about how much 'you' will still be
> 'you' in a different body.
> The ethics crowd have already been having a go at the problem.
>
> Suppose a 10-stone weakling gets a 20-stone testosterone-charged body.
> How will he change? And vice-versa.
> Or a body with allergies? Or muscle memories, like piano-playing, or
> tap-dancing, or much increased / reduced sex drive? Will left-handed
> become right-handed?
>
> I would expect changes to personality, so that in a few years the
> patient will be a different 'you'.

Will these be larger, or otherwise quantifiably different, than the
expected changes over that period if the person had acquired the same
change(s) through more more familiar but similarly sudden means?
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From tara at taramayastales.com  Tue Feb  2 23:16:08 2016
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 2016 15:16:08 -0800
Subject: [ExI] head transplant again
In-Reply-To: <CAJX-7wU8jv_5HJHx33HNeFKVKoLuNDTf97UzdDvYjwqtznWfZQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <002c01d155e9$d64c7190$82e554b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armjq=YUM3Kq=2JQma0kWc+VOM+QNVu6x_-bDm=mTeFh9BA@mail.gmail.com>
 <002001d15625$0fb4f070$2f1ed150$@att.net>
 <CAL_armih6TAtX=ZHvQ2YhAtBkPrQsL-b34HUz4zNJ15v57t87g@mail.gmail.com>
 <003501d1562d$09fbd0b0$1df37210$@att.net>
 <CAJX-7wU8jv_5HJHx33HNeFKVKoLuNDTf97UzdDvYjwqtznWfZQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <1F71BB24-D377-44B4-8C40-2AAC0EF46A8F@taramayastales.com>

This reminds me of a character in one of the Oz books (not the first book but one of the original series). She had seventeen heads. When Dorothy arrived, the lady changed her head to the one with the prettiest face, forgetting that head had a rather petulant personality?

Tara Maya


> On Feb 1, 2016, at 10:41 PM, Max More <max at maxmore.com> wrote:
> 
> Please! Body transplant, not head transplant. Transplanting someone's head onto your body means that you dead.
> 
> If you are signed up for the neuro procedure in cryonics, when we do the separation we are not decapitating you, we are...desomatizing you. (Is there an existing word for what I mean?)
> 
> --Max
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat



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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Wed Feb  3 18:44:15 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Wed, 3 Feb 2016 13:44:15 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Quantum Computers
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2T5owO0oVevYDvkkGe3HL8hO-KCapLbXiFqFFT_Ast+Q@mail.gmail.com>

A recent paper in Nature Communications gives more evidence that
Quantum Computers might produce as big a revolution as
Nanotechnology,  Seth Lloyd, Silvano Garnerone and Paolo Zanardi have found
a Quantum algorithms for the topological analysis of data:

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160125/ncomms10138/full/ncomms10138.html

Seth Lloyd, the man who found the Quantum factoring algorithm some years
back says "In a topological description, basic features of the data (How
many holes does it have? How are the different parts connected?) are
considered the same no matter how much they are stretched, compressed, or
distorted. It is often these fundamental topological attributes that are
important in trying to reconstruct the underlying patterns in the real
world that the data are supposed to represent. It doesn?t matter what kind
of dataset is being analyzed. The topological approach of looking for
connections and holes works whether it?s an actual physical hole, or the
data represents a logical argument and there?s a hole in the argument. This
will find both kinds of holes.?

But Lloyd says the topological approach is too demanding for conventional
computers "Topological analysis represents a crucial way of getting at the
significant features of the data, but it?s computationally very expensive.
This is where quantum mechanics kicks in. The new quantum-based approach
could exponentially speed up such calculations." Lloyd gives this example:
"If you have a dataset with 300 points, a conventional approach to
analyzing all the topological features in that system would require a
computer the size of the universe. That is, it would take 2300 (two to the
300th power) processing units ? approximately the number of all the
particles in the universe. In other words, the problem is simply not
solvable in that way. That?s where our algorithm kicks in. Solving the same
problem with the new system, using a quantum computer, would require just
300 quantum bits ? and a device this size may be achieved in the next few
years. Our algorithm shows that you don?t need a big quantum computer to
kick some serious topological butt.?

  John K Clark
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Wed Feb  3 23:47:56 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Wed, 3 Feb 2016 18:47:56 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Quantum Computers
Message-ID: <CAJPayv14NbEh3aTbMi3oip9vFTKvLt-jdRZzQs494QUqR8Cz3w@mail.gmail.com>

I need to make a correction to my previous post, the Quantum factoring
algorithm was found by Peter Shor not Seth Lloyd.

 John K Clark
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From rhanson at gmu.edu  Wed Feb  3 14:38:08 2016
From: rhanson at gmu.edu (Robin D Hanson)
Date: Wed, 3 Feb 2016 14:38:08 +0000
Subject: [ExI]
 =?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
 =?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
 <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>
 <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <38C5FA08-4E14-4285-A931-21D62FCA66EC@gmu.edu>

On Feb 2, 2016, at 1:48 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> Your name is being taken in vain (but in a good way; people aren't yet going around exclaiming Robin-dammit or anything.)
> 
> That whole notion of ideas futures which you drove a long time ago is really big stuff in political elections, like the one which was kicked off yesterday in Iowa.  I watched those share prices do what they do in elections.  A prominent real-money version is PredictIt.
> 
> https://www.predictit.org/
> 
> The PredictIt people realized that the most this whole notion is ever used is around politics.  
> 
> Most entertaining thing I have seen in a long Hanson-damn time.

I can?t at all take credit for people betting for fun on elections. Turns out a bit over a century ago more was bet on US presidential elections than in the US stock market. 

I can take more credit for pushing the idea that if you want to know something you should subsidize betting markets in those topics. For elections this might be markets on the consequences of a certain person or party being elected to a particular office. Alas I haven?t had much success on that front. Seems people have very little interest in finding out which candidates will actually produce better outcomes. 

Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu 
Future of Humanity Inst., Oxford University
Assoc. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
See my new book: http://ageofem.com












From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Feb  4 09:24:29 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 2016 09:24:29 +0000
Subject: [ExI]
	=?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
	=?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
 <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>
 <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armg6XMaRD4sFEYKPbGaZSNt7rrLBCRMoq-mPBzO-SP58pQ@mail.gmail.com>

On 2 February 2016 at 18:48, spike wrote:
> Hi Robin,
> That whole notion of ideas futures which you drove a long time ago is really big stuf
> in political elections, like the one which was kicked off yesterday in Iowa.  I watched
> those share prices do what they do in elections.  A prominent real-money version is PredictIt.
>
> https://www.predictit.org/
> The PredictIt people realized that the most this whole notion is ever used is around politics.
>

Scott Adams has a blog post up saying that in our modern world
everything important is corrupt.
That obviously applies to markets and politics.

<http://blog.dilbert.com/post/138608871076/new-hampshire-prediction-master-persuader-series>
Quote:
In my experience on this planet, anything that is both important and
corruptible (without detection) is already corrupted. Athletes are
using performance-enhancing drugs, politicians are using dirty tricks,
hedge funds are using insider information, and so on. It?s a universal
truth. I doubt you could find anything in our world that is both
important and corruptible yet isn?t already corrupted.
That brings us to the Iowa caucuses. I have no evidence that the the
vote was fraudulent. But objectively speaking, if the GOP
establishment had rigged the Iowa result for a Rubio surge, it would
look to observers exactly the way it played out.
-------------

So how is an advanced AI going to cope with all these lying, cheating humans?
It cannot assume everyone is cheating, because there are some honest
people around. (Although they probably should be described as 'mostly'
honest). And people have good intentions but are mistaken. And even
fraudsters are honest sometimes when it helps their scams.

The AI needs to be god-like, with all-encompassing knowledge of every
case when people are misbehaving. But it won't get to that state
immediately. In the interim, people will be lying to the AI, trying to
persuade it to work to their advantage. Will the AI have to become a
better liar than humans?

BillK



From anders at aleph.se  Thu Feb  4 11:48:52 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 2016 11:48:52 +0000
Subject: [ExI]
 =?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
 =?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armg6XMaRD4sFEYKPbGaZSNt7rrLBCRMoq-mPBzO-SP58pQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
 <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>
 <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg6XMaRD4sFEYKPbGaZSNt7rrLBCRMoq-mPBzO-SP58pQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56B33AA4.8030105@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-04 09:24, BillK wrote:
> So how is an advanced AI going to cope with all these lying, cheating 
> humans? It cannot assume everyone is cheating, because there are some 
> honest people around. (Although they probably should be described as 
> 'mostly' honest). And people have good intentions but are mistaken. 
> And even fraudsters are honest sometimes when it helps their scams. 
> The AI needs to be god-like, with all-encompassing knowledge of every 
> case when people are misbehaving.

Is this why non-godlike people are totally unable to cope with lying humans?

In reality it is all a matter of being Bayesian. Somebody says something 
supporting a hypothesis H. You update your belief in H:

P(H|claim) = P(claim|H)P(H)/P(claim) = P(claim|H)P(H) / [ 
P(claim|H)P(H)+P(claim|not H)P(not H)]

If people were 100% truthful, then P(claim|H)=1, and if they were never 
mistaken P(claim|not H)=0. But since they are not, you will not update 
as strongly. And as you occasionally get fooled or find them mistaken, 
you update P(claim|H) and P(claim|not H).

The problem for AI and humans is that different sources have different 
credibility, and you want to estimate it without lots of data. So you 
start making estimates of P(source is trustworthy|evidence) based on 
uncertain evidence, like whether they are a peer-reviewed scientific 
journal or that your friend (who is fairly trustworthy) said the source 
was good. One can do all of these calculations and it never ends, since 
now you will also update your credibility in different sources of 
credibility information. However, the real measure is of course if your 
rough-and-ready approximations lead to good enough behaviour. That is, 
can you become a connoisseur of information sources?



-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Feb  4 12:30:28 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 2016 12:30:28 +0000
Subject: [ExI]
	=?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
	=?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <56B33AA4.8030105@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
 <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>
 <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg6XMaRD4sFEYKPbGaZSNt7rrLBCRMoq-mPBzO-SP58pQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56B33AA4.8030105@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjx4HF-CnXz_=D23mNjp6DOQRApvHOCqT5UTG0NyPWtAQ@mail.gmail.com>

On 4 February 2016 at 11:48, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
> Is this why non-godlike people are totally unable to cope with lying humans?


That's the trouble - they either can't cope (see criminal records for
a start) or they join in (to a greater or lesser extent).

>
> In reality it is all a matter of being Bayesian. Somebody says something
> supporting a hypothesis H. You update your belief in H:
>
> P(H|claim) = P(claim|H)P(H)/P(claim) = P(claim|H)P(H) / [
> P(claim|H)P(H)+P(claim|not H)P(not H)]
>
> If people were 100% truthful, then P(claim|H)=1, and if they were never
> mistaken P(claim|not H)=0. But since they are not, you will not update as
> strongly. And as you occasionally get fooled or find them mistaken, you
> update P(claim|H) and P(claim|not H).
>
> The problem for AI and humans is that different sources have different
> credibility, and you want to estimate it without lots of data. So you start
> making estimates of P(source is trustworthy|evidence) based on uncertain
> evidence, like whether they are a peer-reviewed scientific journal or that
> your friend (who is fairly trustworthy) said the source was good. One can do
> all of these calculations and it never ends, since now you will also update
> your credibility in different sources of credibility information. However,
> the real measure is of course if your rough-and-ready approximations lead to
> good enough behaviour. That is, can you become a connoisseur of information
> sources?
>


That's too academic a solution for dealing with humanity. People are
not consistent. Sometimes they lie, sometimes they are truthful and
sometimes all the range in between. Even peer-reviewed journals are a
mishmash.

Human happiness is also a factor. Sometimes people are happier
believing a lie. Maybe the method for the AI to achieve a better state
for humans is to get more of them believing a lie. (That's what
Jehovah thought).

Sometimes the AI might know what is 'best', but that path will make
millions of people miserable and maybe cause some deaths. What to do?

If 'First, do no harm' is implemented, the AI might do very little and
become almost useless. So corporations and governments (first), then
individuals, will try to restrict the AI so that it will work for
their personal benefit regardless of the mayhem that may be caused
elsewhere.


BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Thu Feb  4 14:51:57 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 2016 06:51:57 -0800
Subject: [ExI]
	=?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
	=?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armg6XMaRD4sFEYKPbGaZSNt7rrLBCRMoq-mPBzO-SP58pQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
 <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>
 <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg6XMaRD4sFEYKPbGaZSNt7rrLBCRMoq-mPBzO-SP58pQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <002d01d15f5b$99907960$ccb16c20$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of BillK
...

>...Scott Adams has a blog post up saying that in our modern world everything important is corrupt.That obviously applies to markets and politics.

<http://blog.dilbert.com/post/138608871076/new-hampshire-prediction-master-persuader-series>
Quote:
>...In my experience on this planet, anything that is both important and corruptible (without detection) is already corrupted. Athletes are using performance-enhancing drugs, politicians are using dirty tricks, hedge funds are using insider information, and so on. It?s a universal truth. ...BillK

_______________________________________________

Adams is right on.

Some time long agon when we were anticipating the impact of increasing transparency on society, I speculated that we would get better at detecting corruption (ja) and that we would become more tolerant of the low-level stuff (double ja.)

We have now the ability to archive so many things that our leading candidates have done wrong, and instant notification when they do, but I way underestimated how tolerant we would become of corruption.  

The current situation where we have good evidence that one of the leading candidates compromised highly classified information yet still hasn't been indicted is a scary example.

spike






From anders at aleph.se  Thu Feb  4 15:44:27 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 2016 15:44:27 +0000
Subject: [ExI]
 =?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
 =?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjx4HF-CnXz_=D23mNjp6DOQRApvHOCqT5UTG0NyPWtAQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
 <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>
 <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg6XMaRD4sFEYKPbGaZSNt7rrLBCRMoq-mPBzO-SP58pQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56B33AA4.8030105@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjx4HF-CnXz_=D23mNjp6DOQRApvHOCqT5UTG0NyPWtAQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56B371DB.8080007@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-04 12:30, BillK wrote:
> On 4 February 2016 at 11:48, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
>> Is this why non-godlike people are totally unable to cope with lying humans?
> That's the trouble - they either can't cope (see criminal records for
> a start) or they join in (to a greater or lesser extent).

So, either you are godlike, you can't cope, or you have joined the 
lying? :-)


>
>> In reality it is all a matter of being Bayesian. Somebody says something
>> supporting a hypothesis H. You update your belief in H:
>>
>> P(H|claim) = P(claim|H)P(H)/P(claim) = P(claim|H)P(H) / [
>> P(claim|H)P(H)+P(claim|not H)P(not H)]
>
> That's too academic a solution for dealing with humanity. People are
> not consistent. Sometimes they lie, sometimes they are truthful and
> sometimes all the range in between. Even peer-reviewed journals are a
> mishmash.

I disagree. This is the internal activity of the AI, just like your 
internal activity is impemented as neural firing. Would you argue that 
complex biochemical processes are too academic to deal with humanity?

One can build Bayesian models of inconsistent people and other 
information sources. Normally we do not consciously do that, we just 
instinctively trust Nature over National Inquirer, but behind the scenes 
there is likely a Bayes-approximating process (full of biases and crude 
shortcuts).

The problem for an AI understanding humans is that it needs to start 
from scratch, while humans have the advantage of shared mental hardware 
which gives them decent priors. Still, since an AI that gets human 
intentions is more useful than an AI that requires a lot of tedious 
training, expect a lot of research to focus on getting the right human 
priors into the knowledge database (I know some researchers working on 
this).

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Feb  4 16:21:57 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 2016 10:21:57 -0600
Subject: [ExI]
	=?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
	=?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <56B371DB.8080007@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
 <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>
 <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg6XMaRD4sFEYKPbGaZSNt7rrLBCRMoq-mPBzO-SP58pQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56B33AA4.8030105@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjx4HF-CnXz_=D23mNjp6DOQRApvHOCqT5UTG0NyPWtAQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56B371DB.8080007@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaCtfbEk7FUVasOPVorTdkvzqnVuwk6w6vZ=QNU0_s1Hg@mail.gmail.com>

 >...Scott Adams has a blog post up saying that in our modern world
everything important is corrupt.That obviously applies to markets and
politics.

The rest of the world, for the most part, thinks we, USA mostly, just don't
understand human nature.  Corruption, as we call it, implying wrongdoing,
is just the cost of doing business to most of the world.

Is there anyone on this list that has never stolen anything at all, not
even a paperclip?  Hah!  Humans are highly prone to larceny.  It is evident
in the youngest children who have any control over the muscles at all.
"MINE", they cry, and grab whatever toys they want.  Subsequent training in
morals, religion, laws, does little make greed disappear. Deception and
deception detection, may not come as naturally, as most people can be taken
in by a skillful liar.

I cannot speak to AI and programming, etc. but what this field needs is
more progress in psychology, and maybe especially, lie detection.

bill w

On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 9:44 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2016-02-04 12:30, BillK wrote:
>
>> On 4 February 2016 at 11:48, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
>>
>>> Is this why non-godlike people are totally unable to cope with lying
>>> humans?
>>>
>> That's the trouble - they either can't cope (see criminal records for
>> a start) or they join in (to a greater or lesser extent).
>>
>
> So, either you are godlike, you can't cope, or you have joined the lying?
> :-)
>
>
>
>> In reality it is all a matter of being Bayesian. Somebody says something
>>> supporting a hypothesis H. You update your belief in H:
>>>
>>> P(H|claim) = P(claim|H)P(H)/P(claim) = P(claim|H)P(H) / [
>>> P(claim|H)P(H)+P(claim|not H)P(not H)]
>>>
>>
>> That's too academic a solution for dealing with humanity. People are
>> not consistent. Sometimes they lie, sometimes they are truthful and
>> sometimes all the range in between. Even peer-reviewed journals are a
>> mishmash.
>>
>
> I disagree. This is the internal activity of the AI, just like your
> internal activity is impemented as neural firing. Would you argue that
> complex biochemical processes are too academic to deal with humanity?
>
> One can build Bayesian models of inconsistent people and other information
> sources. Normally we do not consciously do that, we just instinctively
> trust Nature over National Inquirer, but behind the scenes there is likely
> a Bayes-approximating process (full of biases and crude shortcuts).
>
> The problem for an AI understanding humans is that it needs to start from
> scratch, while humans have the advantage of shared mental hardware which
> gives them decent priors. Still, since an AI that gets human intentions is
> more useful than an AI that requires a lot of tedious training, expect a
> lot of research to focus on getting the right human priors into the
> knowledge database (I know some researchers working on this).
>
> --
> Anders Sandberg
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Oxford University
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From msd001 at gmail.com  Thu Feb  4 17:22:17 2016
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 2016 12:22:17 -0500
Subject: [ExI]
	=?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
	=?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaCtfbEk7FUVasOPVorTdkvzqnVuwk6w6vZ=QNU0_s1Hg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se>
 <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
 <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>
 <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg6XMaRD4sFEYKPbGaZSNt7rrLBCRMoq-mPBzO-SP58pQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56B33AA4.8030105@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjx4HF-CnXz_=D23mNjp6DOQRApvHOCqT5UTG0NyPWtAQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56B371DB.8080007@aleph.se>
 <CAO+xQEaCtfbEk7FUVasOPVorTdkvzqnVuwk6w6vZ=QNU0_s1Hg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbK6hRioQ9fn-v8vFp-dcUH=C_TNGgR-ujYf_vDDN=5xQQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 11:21 AM, William Flynn Wallace
<foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
> I cannot speak to AI and programming, etc. but what this field needs is more
> progress in psychology, and maybe especially, lie detection.

... and by "this field" you mean "every field" or "any field" ?


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Feb  4 17:53:42 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 2016 11:53:42 -0600
Subject: [ExI]
	=?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
	=?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbK6hRioQ9fn-v8vFp-dcUH=C_TNGgR-ujYf_vDDN=5xQQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
 <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>
 <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg6XMaRD4sFEYKPbGaZSNt7rrLBCRMoq-mPBzO-SP58pQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56B33AA4.8030105@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjx4HF-CnXz_=D23mNjp6DOQRApvHOCqT5UTG0NyPWtAQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56B371DB.8080007@aleph.se>
 <CAO+xQEaCtfbEk7FUVasOPVorTdkvzqnVuwk6w6vZ=QNU0_s1Hg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAOJFdbK6hRioQ9fn-v8vFp-dcUH=C_TNGgR-ujYf_vDDN=5xQQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbMVAp9oeEnwFMPwirwNhJ1dAKmhTE6UXpL+zZ=Niz6Kw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 11:22 AM, Mike Dougherty <msd001 at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 11:21 AM, William Flynn Wallace
> <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
> > I cannot speak to AI and programming, etc. but what this field needs is
> more
> > progress in psychology, and maybe especially, lie detection.
>
> ... and by "this field" you mean "every field" or "any field" ?
>

?Yeah, I guess that was ambiguous.  Of course I am biased, being a social
psychologist, but many fields overlap psych:  marketing, management, AI,
economics and so forth.  If someone is going to program robots to converse
with people, we need to know more about people than we do, esp. if the
robot is supposed to detect deception, hidden meanings, emotional
reactions, and other subtleties?
?. Enormous progress has been made in reading faces, for example, that
would need to be programmed into robots or AI or whatever broad term
applies.  Ditto for research showing how vocalizations can be read for
stress and other emotions.  Lie detection is getting sophisticated.

bill w?


> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Thu Feb  4 18:03:31 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 2016 19:03:31 +0100
Subject: [ExI]
	=?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
	=?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbMVAp9oeEnwFMPwirwNhJ1dAKmhTE6UXpL+zZ=Niz6Kw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
 <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>
 <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg6XMaRD4sFEYKPbGaZSNt7rrLBCRMoq-mPBzO-SP58pQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56B33AA4.8030105@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjx4HF-CnXz_=D23mNjp6DOQRApvHOCqT5UTG0NyPWtAQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56B371DB.8080007@aleph.se>
 <CAO+xQEaCtfbEk7FUVasOPVorTdkvzqnVuwk6w6vZ=QNU0_s1Hg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAOJFdbK6hRioQ9fn-v8vFp-dcUH=C_TNGgR-ujYf_vDDN=5xQQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEbMVAp9oeEnwFMPwirwNhJ1dAKmhTE6UXpL+zZ=Niz6Kw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFRsabXT8jdLcxa5oA5FcwBiX5kDSeMNr2o--7HWoJeUkg@mail.gmail.com>

> that would need to be programmed into robots or AI or whatever broad term
applies

Now, this should go automatically from a certain point on. Just like the
image labeling went.

With a clever use of NN's one can teach the machine those "subjective"
kinds of tasks, which were seen as too difficult to program, anyway.



On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 6:53 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:

>
>
> On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 11:22 AM, Mike Dougherty <msd001 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 11:21 AM, William Flynn Wallace
>> <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> > I cannot speak to AI and programming, etc. but what this field needs is
>> more
>> > progress in psychology, and maybe especially, lie detection.
>>
>> ... and by "this field" you mean "every field" or "any field" ?
>>
>
> ?Yeah, I guess that was ambiguous.  Of course I am biased, being a social
> psychologist, but many fields overlap psych:  marketing, management, AI,
> economics and so forth.  If someone is going to program robots to converse
> with people, we need to know more about people than we do, esp. if the
> robot is supposed to detect deception, hidden meanings, emotional
> reactions, and other subtleties?
> ?. Enormous progress has been made in reading faces, for example, that
> would need to be programmed into robots or AI or whatever broad term
> applies.  Ditto for research showing how vocalizations can be read for
> stress and other emotions.  Lie detection is getting sophisticated.
>
> bill w?
>
>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Feb  4 20:58:14 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 2016 15:58:14 -0500
Subject: [ExI] World's Fastest Rubik's Cube Solving Robot
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2YO_HFexvqT0=H_yqFuPoBPsDdmmovcZ66HhgsM0Pz4g@mail.gmail.com>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixTddQQ2Hs4


  John K Clark
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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Fri Feb  5 08:05:12 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Fri, 5 Feb 2016 09:05:12 +0100
Subject: [ExI] World's Fastest Rubik's Cube Solving Robot
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2YO_HFexvqT0=H_yqFuPoBPsDdmmovcZ66HhgsM0Pz4g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2YO_HFexvqT0=H_yqFuPoBPsDdmmovcZ66HhgsM0Pz4g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFTfH6adE-xc_1KEjuhYoPh=yr2oi6R6FuSW6DXSyYFZVA@mail.gmail.com>

AI advancements as expected.



On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 9:58 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixTddQQ2Hs4
>
>
>   John K Clark
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From sparge at gmail.com  Fri Feb  5 16:53:58 2016
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Fri, 5 Feb 2016 11:53:58 -0500
Subject: [ExI] crashes
In-Reply-To: <007e01d15e10$0aa22060$1fe66120$@att.net>
References: <CAO+xQEbqV=+BzvJEZCzqYPtYJhrCKsL=0NJGgsTa8qFDWvZzSA@mail.gmail.com>
 <007e01d15e10$0aa22060$1fe66120$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2cEz887OtPk+zeOMbKJimajDbivfbNucGqvE92FJCm5Sw@mail.gmail.com>

Could just be overheating. Five year old computers accumulate a lot of dust.

-Dave

On Tue, Feb 2, 2016 at 6:18 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace
> *Sent:* Tuesday, February 02, 2016 1:06 PM
> *To:* ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> *Subject:* [ExI] crashes
>
>
>
> Has anyone had any experience with crashes producing the MACHINE CHECK
> EXCEPTION error?
>
> Thanks!
>
> bill w
>
>
>
> Cool, I learned a new thing this day.
>
>
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine-check_exception
>
>
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From msd001 at gmail.com  Fri Feb  5 20:08:39 2016
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Fri, 5 Feb 2016 15:08:39 -0500
Subject: [ExI]
	=?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
	=?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbMVAp9oeEnwFMPwirwNhJ1dAKmhTE6UXpL+zZ=Niz6Kw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se>
 <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
 <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>
 <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg6XMaRD4sFEYKPbGaZSNt7rrLBCRMoq-mPBzO-SP58pQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56B33AA4.8030105@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjx4HF-CnXz_=D23mNjp6DOQRApvHOCqT5UTG0NyPWtAQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56B371DB.8080007@aleph.se>
 <CAO+xQEaCtfbEk7FUVasOPVorTdkvzqnVuwk6w6vZ=QNU0_s1Hg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAOJFdbK6hRioQ9fn-v8vFp-dcUH=C_TNGgR-ujYf_vDDN=5xQQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEbMVAp9oeEnwFMPwirwNhJ1dAKmhTE6UXpL+zZ=Niz6Kw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdb+NXLKB4UpsFeA4udeNWghXnPjmttNoWXCgxTXMTEtgnQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 12:53 PM, William Flynn Wallace
<foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
> Yeah, I guess that was ambiguous.  Of course I am biased, being a social
> psychologist, but many fields overlap psych:  marketing, management, AI,
> economics and so forth.  If someone is going to program robots to converse
> with people, we need to know more about people than we do, esp. if the robot
> is supposed to detect deception, hidden meanings, emotional reactions, and
> other subtleties
> . Enormous progress has been made in reading faces, for example, that would
> need to be programmed into robots or AI or whatever broad term applies.
> Ditto for research showing how vocalizations can be read for stress and
> other emotions.  Lie detection is getting sophisticated.

I agree.  I think it's an important lesson for non-AI developers to
learn too.  As a non-AI software developer, I am disgusted with the
state of human computer interaction (HCI) that the majority of devs
produce.  There is such a long history of forcing people to adapt to
whatever new software/UI is perceived (by the developer) as "better"
(without regard for users' muscle-memory)

Why can't we use the latest version of Excel with a UI skin having the
good-ol' retro Excel '95 (or 2005, or 2010, or whatever it was when it
was learned).  Sure there might be some new features that weren't
available then, but the basics of spreadsheets hasn't changed since
Lotus 1-2-3 (which was modeled on pre-industrial bookkeeping
practices, right?)  To suggest that everything we know about using a
menu should be trashed so we can click on a ribbon (in the name of
'easier') is to miss a fundamental UX principle.  The "Cool new stuff"
menu might be a place to look... or the application (and computers in
general) have enough resources to know what you're doing and offer
context-aware modes for working through most of the heavy lifting.

*shrug* i digress.  The point was that computers need to get better at
working with people rather than people getting better at working with
computers.  The people who help computers do that need to understand
the people that would eventually be helped by the AI they create.
"People will adapt" should be an unacceptable attitude.


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Feb  5 21:51:03 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 5 Feb 2016 16:51:03 -0500
Subject: [ExI] A new anti aging drug
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3nXjFeJAC3oXTe7LoiOnP=8r2LmtjYbX07A2Gi8pWSOw@mail.gmail.com>

?Researchers report in the ?
Feb. 3
?issue of ?
 Nature
? that a drug called
AP20187
? increased the lifetime of mice by 30% even if the treatment isn't started
till middle age:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/02/suicide-aging-cells-prolongs-life-span-mice
 ?

 John K Clark
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Fri Feb  5 23:26:57 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Fri, 5 Feb 2016 17:26:57 -0600
Subject: [ExI]
	=?utf-8?q?Google=E2=80=99s_Go_Victory_Is_Just_a_Glimpse_of_?=
	=?utf-8?q?How_Powerful_AI_Will_Be?=
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdb+NXLKB4UpsFeA4udeNWghXnPjmttNoWXCgxTXMTEtgnQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv2rxTAu=hLkVmRrQtWGqxVO+kRKPEHeD2-DzDd0kJOPfw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56AE5ABE.60108@aleph.se> <A7662D69-2AA7-4197-BDFB-4D5384E1634F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0B9DA.3050700@organicrobot.com>
 <E87C9856-B2BF-4FA4-B104-6C54CFCC269F@gmu.edu>
 <56B0E16E.8040903@posthuman.com>
 <867DD8D8-4099-45A2-BFCC-A91181C2585D@gmu.edu>
 <010c01d15dea$406b7690$c14263b0$@att.net>
 <CAL_armg6XMaRD4sFEYKPbGaZSNt7rrLBCRMoq-mPBzO-SP58pQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56B33AA4.8030105@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armjx4HF-CnXz_=D23mNjp6DOQRApvHOCqT5UTG0NyPWtAQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <56B371DB.8080007@aleph.se>
 <CAO+xQEaCtfbEk7FUVasOPVorTdkvzqnVuwk6w6vZ=QNU0_s1Hg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAOJFdbK6hRioQ9fn-v8vFp-dcUH=C_TNGgR-ujYf_vDDN=5xQQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEbMVAp9oeEnwFMPwirwNhJ1dAKmhTE6UXpL+zZ=Niz6Kw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAOJFdb+NXLKB4UpsFeA4udeNWghXnPjmttNoWXCgxTXMTEtgnQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbUVcNshqOZmgA4SgwwXzTeDeJ_7JoyyLCD8XNjztFrCg@mail.gmail.com>

 Mike Dougherty wrote:

"People will adapt" should be an unacceptable attitude.

And I agree with that.  I hear stories about engineers 'doing their own
things' and presenting their products to upper management.  Then the
marketing people tell them that it might be OK for engineers but not for
regular people (whoever those are).  Make it user friendly in the current
cant.  This problem has plagued PCs from the beginning and is still a
problem.

I wish marketers would take their products and present them to us ordinary
people and watch them through a one-way mirror.  The people in charge of
packaging (much less things in kits) would get a real lesson is how hard it
is for older folks to just get into their product without injuring
themselves!  Surely there are ways to make packaging user friendly and
theft resistant at the same time.

I know little of AI but I do read that they are trying make them learn and
adapt as a person would.  That way the adaptation can go both ways - you
get used to it and it gets used to you.  Like raising a child.

Now if it ever comes to pass that we can download our brains, then we can
download them into our robots etc. (leaving the original intact, of course)
and they would understand us perfectly.  However, think of the problems
involved if the person in question is a contrarian.  Endless arguments with
your appliance.

bill w

On Fri, Feb 5, 2016 at 2:08 PM, Mike Dougherty <msd001 at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 12:53 PM, William Flynn Wallace
> <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
> > Yeah, I guess that was ambiguous.  Of course I am biased, being a social
> > psychologist, but many fields overlap psych:  marketing, management, AI,
> > economics and so forth.  If someone is going to program robots to
> converse
> > with people, we need to know more about people than we do, esp. if the
> robot
> > is supposed to detect deception, hidden meanings, emotional reactions,
> and
> > other subtleties
> > . Enormous progress has been made in reading faces, for example, that
> would
> > need to be programmed into robots or AI or whatever broad term applies.
> > Ditto for research showing how vocalizations can be read for stress and
> > other emotions.  Lie detection is getting sophisticated.
>
> I agree.  I think it's an important lesson for non-AI developers to
> learn too.  As a non-AI software developer, I am disgusted with the
> state of human computer interaction (HCI) that the majority of devs
> produce.  There is such a long history of forcing people to adapt to
> whatever new software/UI is perceived (by the developer) as "better"
> (without regard for users' muscle-memory)
>
> Why can't we use the latest version of Excel with a UI skin having the
> good-ol' retro Excel '95 (or 2005, or 2010, or whatever it was when it
> was learned).  Sure there might be some new features that weren't
> available then, but the basics of spreadsheets hasn't changed since
> Lotus 1-2-3 (which was modeled on pre-industrial bookkeeping
> practices, right?)  To suggest that everything we know about using a
> menu should be trashed so we can click on a ribbon (in the name of
> 'easier') is to miss a fundamental UX principle.  The "Cool new stuff"
> menu might be a place to look... or the application (and computers in
> general) have enough resources to know what you're doing and offer
> context-aware modes for working through most of the heavy lifting.
>
> *shrug* i digress.  The point was that computers need to get better at
> working with people rather than people getting better at working with
> computers.  The people who help computers do that need to understand
> the people that would eventually be helped by the AI they create.
> "People will adapt" should be an unacceptable attitude.
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Sat Feb  6 14:17:20 2016
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Sat, 6 Feb 2016 09:17:20 -0500
Subject: [ExI] A new anti aging drug
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3nXjFeJAC3oXTe7LoiOnP=8r2LmtjYbX07A2Gi8pWSOw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv3nXjFeJAC3oXTe7LoiOnP=8r2LmtjYbX07A2Gi8pWSOw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFgMbmk9dYS20CjVcQYLwZMVcFUeu3wL3dAMQYmAgqPxeA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Feb 5, 2016 at 4:51 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> ?Researchers report in the ?
> Feb. 3
> ?issue of ?
>  Nature
> ? that a drug called
> AP20187
> ? increased the lifetime of mice by 30% even if the treatment isn't
> started till middle age:
>
>
> http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/02/suicide-aging-cells-prolongs-life-span-mice
>  ?
>
>
>

### It should be mentioned that AP20187 is not a likely life-extesion drug.
It is a homodimerizer designed to induce interactions between two DmrB, or
FKBPv domains. The compound is commercially available and by itself it
doesn't have any biological relevance, since it specifically binds to a
mutated version of FKBP (FKBPv), which is absent in normal mammals.

Here is what was shown in the article: First they introduced a genetic
detector of senescence into mice by genetic engineering. The detector is an
artificial gene that contains an ink4a promoter that controls FKBPv-cas8
expression. Ink4a is a protein found in senescent cells of normal mice. In
the senescent cells of genetically engineered mice ink4a will bind to the
ink4a promoter and produce FKBPv-cas8. FKBPv-cas8 is an artificial protein,
not normally found in animals. It has two parts: cas8 and FKBPv. Cas8 is a
caspase, which kills cells if activated. FKBPv is a protein domain which
binds to AP20187. If you have FKBPv in cells and add AP20187, the FKBPv
will be induced to form homodimers (two identical FKBPv molecules stuck
together by the action of AP20187). If the FPBPv molecules are designed to
have cas8, their homodimerization will bring the cas8 domains together, and
activate them, causing cell death. In this way you can induce controlled
killing of cells of your choice, in this case determined by the presence of
ink4a - in other words, you can specifically, using genetically engineered
detector and effector molecules (which here they call INK-ATTAC), kill
senescent cells.

The article basically repeats the group's previous work, published in 2011 (
Nature.
<http://www-ncbi-nlm-nih-gov.proxy.library.vcu.edu/pubmed/22048312?dopt=Abstract&holding=npg#>
 2011 Nov 2;479(7372):232-6. doi: 10.1038/nature10600.) but in different
strains of genetically engineered mice, and shows that selective ablation
of some senescent cells seems to make mice healthier. Not all senescent
cells were removed, since the INK-ATTAC doesn't seem to work in colon and
liver.

This is very neat but it doesn't have a direct application in humans,
unless you wanted to genetically modify babies to carry the INK-ATTAC
killer gene. However, it does open interesting research directions. One can
think about many ways of specifically killing senescent cells in adult
humans and I would not be surprised if some of them were tried in the next
10 - 15 years.

Rafa?
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From spike66 at att.net  Sat Feb  6 17:18:32 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 6 Feb 2016 09:18:32 -0800
Subject: [ExI] hand foot counterpart?
Message-ID: <005101d16102$68880ab0$39982010$@att.net>

 

I can't think of a way to ask my search engine this question, so I will
Exi-Google my generally hip ExI friends please:

 

Is there a word for structures on the hand which are analogous to a
corresponding structure on the foot?  

 

For instance: The big toe is the Schnorkleheimer of the thumb.

 

Medical and embryology hipsters, is there an existing term which goes in the
place of Schnorkleheimer in the sentence above?

 

Thanks!

 

spike

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From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Feb  6 18:43:48 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 6 Feb 2016 18:43:48 +0000
Subject: [ExI] hand foot counterpart?
In-Reply-To: <005101d16102$68880ab0$39982010$@att.net>
References: <005101d16102$68880ab0$39982010$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armi95-ukTJ1XL6_EBreBVtDJOeo5Uu9LOPF64xJrYoa=WA@mail.gmail.com>

On 6 February 2016 at 17:18, spike wrote:
> I can?t think of a way to ask my search engine this question, so I will
> Exi-Google my generally hip ExI friends please:
>
> Is there a word for structures on the hand which are analogous to a
> corresponding structure on the foot?
>
> For instance: The big toe is the Schnorkleheimer of the thumb.
> Medical and embryology hipsters, is there an existing term which goes in the
> place of Schnorkleheimer in the sentence above?
>

Corresponding?
Equivalent?
You can't say 'functionally equivalent' as the functions are very different.
See:
<http://www.theodora.com/anatomy/comparison_of_the_bones_of_the_hand_and_foot.html>

BillK



From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu  Sat Feb  6 20:13:08 2016
From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera)
Date: Sat, 6 Feb 2016 15:13:08 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Religious Idiocy Triumphs Over Science Yet Again
Message-ID: <CAMdUVLyQx14zNJtr14UHseboOu+ZXaKKj8v_3-jyhi6z0kij+A@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri Dec 11 22:54:02 UTC 2015, Will Steinberg wrote:
I just don't understand particularly why you would believe that besides
cultural bias.  Do you know what receptors psychedelics act on?  Do you
have evidence that the insights would be poorer than "sobriety"?  Sobriety
a diverse collection of mental states, and drugs add another state.  What
makes whatever mental state you were in, not on drugs, when you gained some
insight, valid?  Isn't the state of your brain right now a fairly
stochastic phenomenon which may or may not produce valid insights?
Sobriety is full of illusion too.  I honestly suggest you go try some.

Another effect of psychoactive you CANNOT have without them is: being able
to look at receptor affinities and compare effects.  If one takes two drugs
with different affinities for the 5HT1 or GABAB or CB2 receptor, then one
can compare effects and gain insight on what it feels like to have sets of
those particular receptors active.  It is very valuable in neuroscience.
And there's a long history of enthusiastic scientists using themselves as
subjects.
---

I read this lengthy 2012 article recently which brought me back to the
psychedelics branch of this thread. I think some of you will enjoy
reading it.

http://www.themorningnews.org/article/the-heretic

A sampling of excerpts that could be responses to questions posed and
comments in this thread:

"After their 5HT2A neural receptors simmered down, they remained firm:
LSD absolutely had helped them solve their complex, seemingly
intractable problems. And the establishment agreed. The 26 men
unleashed a slew of widely embraced innovations shortly after their
LSD experiences, including a mathematical theorem for NOR gate
circuits, a conceptual model of a photon, a linear electron
accelerator beam-steering device, a new design for the vibratory
microtome, a technical improvement of the magnetic tape recorder,
blueprints for a private residency and an arts-and-crafts shopping
plaza, and a space probe experiment designed to measure solar
properties. Fadiman and his colleagues published these jaw-dropping
results and closed shop."

"Still, intriguing hints suggest that, despite stigma and risk of
incarceration, some of our better innovators continued to feed their
heads?and society as a whole reaped the benefits. Francis Crick
confessed that he was tripping the first time he envisioned the double
helix. Steve Jobs called LSD ?one of the two or three most important
things? he?d experienced."

"At the moment, we?ve got two Nobel Prize winners who?ve copped to the
fact of where they got their ideas.Francis Crick is one and the other:
Kary Mullis, who was intermittently under the influence of LSD as he
developed the polymerase chain reaction, a genetic sequencing
technique through which scientists can detect certain infectious
diseases, map the human genome, and trace ancestral heritage back
thousands of years."

"What happened to Dorothy Fadiman that morning? How about Francis
Crick and the people with cancer in the anxiety studies? Staunch
materialists might argue that exogenous, psychotropic molecules had
simply transformed their three pounds of gelatinous gray head muscle
into funhouses for a few hours. But Ms. Fadiman, Crick, and most study
volunteers say something quite different?that the psychedelics they
ingested acted as a sort of antenna, allowing them to receive rather
profound transmissions that they couldn?t typically access during
their ordinary states of consciousness. Such a claim is not without
precedent."

"Despite the 45-year government ban, Fadiman had never stopped longing
to tinker with LSD, to catalogue what we might be capable of with this
byproduct of mold. Of all the possible forays into this psychic terra
incognita, he was most eager to explore micro-dosing?specifically its
long-term effects."

"The urge to connect with the numinous remains strong throughout the
world, including the West?even as medical experts pathologize it,
monotheistic bureaucrats neuter it, and Madison Avenue spellcasters
exploit it. Of course psychoactive plants, fungi, and synthetics
aren?t the only way to sate this urge: Sufis spin, musicians riff, and
physicists formulate. And sometimes psychedelics just get in the way,
according to religious scholar Huston Smith."

-Henry



From spike66 at att.net  Sat Feb  6 22:44:55 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 6 Feb 2016 14:44:55 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Religious Idiocy Triumphs Over Science Yet Again
In-Reply-To: <CAMdUVLyQx14zNJtr14UHseboOu+ZXaKKj8v_3-jyhi6z0kij+A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAMdUVLyQx14zNJtr14UHseboOu+ZXaKKj8v_3-jyhi6z0kij+A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00d601d16130$02cf7590$086e60b0$@att.net>


>...On Fri Dec 11 22:54:02 UTC 2015, ... wrote:
>...I just don't understand particularly why you would believe that besides cultural bias.  Do you know what receptors psychedelics act on?  Do you have evidence that the insights would be poorer than "sobriety"?

I have an idea: come up with two software tasks of some sort, useful stuff like a DNA comparison algorithm and an algorithm to interpret the output of a vibration sensor on your Detroit's engine using Fourier decomposition.  Make them two tasks you are pretty sure you can do, and about the same degree of difficulty.  Pick one, code that.  Now get stoned, code the other.  Which one runs?  Wait until the next day, code the task that stumped you while you were stoned.

Easier task, for chess players: there is a good freeware program imaginatively titled Chess Free, available on tablet computers.  Get that, learn how to set the level of difficulty and set it to five minute time limit games with five seconds per move increment.  Play it until you find your level.  Get stoned.  Play.  Get your ass kicked.  Check your win/loss record afterwards.

Fun aside on that: the current world champion is the Norwegian Magnus Carlson.  He drinks something from a thermos during all his games.  Won't say what it is.  Makes sure to never leave that bottle anywhere it could be stolen.  I think he is toying with his opponents who think he has discovered some kind of super mental enhancement elixir.  I suppose it is possible he has, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is pure orange juice in that thermos.  Speculations welcome.  Propose we go to a tournament, you distract him, I grab the bottle, run like hell.

spike

...




From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun Feb  7 00:02:04 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sat, 6 Feb 2016 18:02:04 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Religious Idiocy Triumphs Over Science Yet Again
In-Reply-To: <00d601d16130$02cf7590$086e60b0$@att.net>
References: <CAMdUVLyQx14zNJtr14UHseboOu+ZXaKKj8v_3-jyhi6z0kij+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <00d601d16130$02cf7590$086e60b0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEa3Gz1QC7uqmZskyL5hPj7d=TAGj=vNbx=UXfRWNq_BUA@mail.gmail.com>

 I suppose it is possible he has, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is pure
orange juice in that thermos.  Speculations welcome.  Propose we go to a
tournament, you distract him, I grab the bottle, run like hell.

This is reminiscent of a distraction by a golfer that took place in the
'30s.  One (Sam, say) told the other (Joe) that there was a great looking
dame in the crowd that seemed very attracted to him.

All the next day Joe scanned the gallery for that nonexistent dame and was
so distracted he went off his game.  An old book called Oneupmanship is
full of stuff like this.  bill w

On Sat, Feb 6, 2016 at 4:44 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
> >...On Fri Dec 11 22:54:02 UTC 2015, ... wrote:
> >...I just don't understand particularly why you would believe that
> besides cultural bias.  Do you know what receptors psychedelics act on?  Do
> you have evidence that the insights would be poorer than "sobriety"?
>
> I have an idea: come up with two software tasks of some sort, useful stuff
> like a DNA comparison algorithm and an algorithm to interpret the output of
> a vibration sensor on your Detroit's engine using Fourier decomposition.
> Make them two tasks you are pretty sure you can do, and about the same
> degree of difficulty.  Pick one, code that.  Now get stoned, code the
> other.  Which one runs?  Wait until the next day, code the task that
> stumped you while you were stoned.
>
> Easier task, for chess players: there is a good freeware program
> imaginatively titled Chess Free, available on tablet computers.  Get that,
> learn how to set the level of difficulty and set it to five minute time
> limit games with five seconds per move increment.  Play it until you find
> your level.  Get stoned.  Play.  Get your ass kicked.  Check your win/loss
> record afterwards.
>
> Fun aside on that: the current world champion is the Norwegian Magnus
> Carlson.  He drinks something from a thermos during all his games.  Won't
> say what it is.  Makes sure to never leave that bottle anywhere it could be
> stolen.  I think he is toying with his opponents who think he has
> discovered some kind of super mental enhancement elixir.  I suppose it is
> possible he has, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is pure orange juice in
> that thermos.  Speculations welcome.  Propose we go to a tournament, you
> distract him, I grab the bottle, run like hell.
>
> spike
>
> ...
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From anders at aleph.se  Sun Feb  7 00:12:39 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 7 Feb 2016 00:12:39 +0000
Subject: [ExI] hand foot counterpart?
In-Reply-To: <005101d16102$68880ab0$39982010$@att.net>
References: <005101d16102$68880ab0$39982010$@att.net>
Message-ID: <56B68BF7.6000908@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-06 17:18, spike wrote:
>
> I can?t think of a way to ask my search engine this question, so I 
> will Exi-Google my generally hip ExI friends please:
>
> Is there a word for structures on the hand which are analogous to a 
> corresponding structure on the foot?
>

Homologs? Homologous structures?
https://www.fas.harvard.edu/~skeleton/pdfs/2010f.pdf
http://iosrjournals.org/iosr-jdms/papers/Vol14-issue8/Version-1/E014811416.pdf


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From steinberg.will at gmail.com  Sun Feb  7 00:32:11 2016
From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg)
Date: Sat, 6 Feb 2016 19:32:11 -0500
Subject: [ExI] hand foot counterpart?
In-Reply-To: <56B68BF7.6000908@aleph.se>
References: <005101d16102$68880ab0$39982010$@att.net>
 <56B68BF7.6000908@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAKrqSyG7fDikhnHdmn8bkM1e1vjFf6b_qGF94-0guRwMLak+ig@mail.gmail.com>

I would use homolog.
On Feb 6, 2016 7:13 PM, "Anders Sandberg" <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2016-02-06 17:18, spike wrote:
>
>
>
> I can?t think of a way to ask my search engine this question, so I will
> Exi-Google my generally hip ExI friends please:
>
>
>
> Is there a word for structures on the hand which are analogous to a
> corresponding structure on the foot?
>
>
> Homologs? Homologous structures?
> https://www.fas.harvard.edu/~skeleton/pdfs/2010f.pdf
>
> http://iosrjournals.org/iosr-jdms/papers/Vol14-issue8/Version-1/E014811416.pdf
>
>
> --
> Anders Sandberg
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Oxford University
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Sun Feb  7 06:41:43 2016
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Sun, 7 Feb 2016 01:41:43 -0500
Subject: [ExI] hand foot counterpart?
In-Reply-To: <005101d16102$68880ab0$39982010$@att.net>
References: <005101d16102$68880ab0$39982010$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFhLH+H1NEL_Dbw2ZezvKmgUxPHrYBU=eap555OT7Gno9w@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Feb 6, 2016 at 12:18 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
>
>
> Is there a word for structures on the hand which are analogous to a
> corresponding structure on the foot?
>
>
>
> For instance: The big toe is the Schnorkleheimer of the thumb.
>
>
>
> Medical and embryology hipsters, is there an existing term which goes in
> the place of Schnorkleheimer in the sentence above?
>
>
>
### I would say paralog, since the structures arose by duplication of genes
or gene families within a species, and then persisted through hundreds of
speciation events. Analog is actually also a good term, if perhaps less
sciency-sounding and may imply an incorrect evolutionary mechanism. Homolog
is also appropriate, although more general than paralog.

Rafa?
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From spike66 at att.net  Sun Feb  7 07:09:05 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 6 Feb 2016 23:09:05 -0800
Subject: [ExI] hand foot counterpart?
In-Reply-To: <56B68BF7.6000908@aleph.se>
References: <005101d16102$68880ab0$39982010$@att.net>
 <56B68BF7.6000908@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <004e01d16176$6edda630$4c98f290$@att.net>

 

 

>. On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
Subject: Re: [ExI] hand foot counterpart?

 

On 2016-02-06 17:18, spike wrote:



 

I can't think of a way to ask my search engine this question, so I will
Exi-Google my generally hip ExI friends please:

 

Is there a word for structures on the hand which are analogous to a
corresponding structure on the foot?  


Homologs? Homologous structures?
https://www.fas.harvard.edu/~skeleton/pdfs/2010f.pdf
http://iosrjournals.org/iosr-jdms/papers/Vol14-issue8/Version-1/E014811416.p
df





-- 
Anders Sandberg
 
 
Cool thanks, that is the word I was looking for.  It is more general than
the specific hand/foot homologs.  As I recall it is OK to use the term for
homologous structures in mammals.  If you look at your dog's leg, you might
at first think their knees bend the wrong direction.  But closer examination
allows you to realize their homologous structure to our heel is off the
ground, and their paws are homologous to the stuff at the balls of our feet
and everything forward.  
 
spike
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Feb  7 16:40:39 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 7 Feb 2016 16:40:39 +0000
Subject: [ExI] hand foot counterpart?
In-Reply-To: <004e01d16176$6edda630$4c98f290$@att.net>
References: <005101d16102$68880ab0$39982010$@att.net>
 <56B68BF7.6000908@aleph.se>
 <004e01d16176$6edda630$4c98f290$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armiTC24tLtXrgogFo17ur+UZ28tWKjXM8tirhp766MWyvA@mail.gmail.com>

On 7 February 2016 at 07:09, spike  wrote:
> Cool thanks, that is the word I was looking for.  It is more general than
> the specific hand/foot homologs.  As I recall it is OK to use the term for
> homologous structures in mammals.  If you look at your dog?s leg, you might
> at first think their knees bend the wrong direction.  But closer examination
> allows you to realize their homologous structure to our heel is off the
> ground, and their paws are homologous to the stuff at the balls of our feet
> and everything forward.
>

I think the usage of homology has to be between species.
e.g. human arms and legs are homologous to the four legs of mammalian
quadrupeds.

Where homology occurs within one species, e.g.hands and feet, this is
called serial homology.
Where organs that have a similar function have developed in two
species that evolved separately, these are called analogous organs.
(see convergent evolution).

<http://evolutionwiki.org/wiki/Homology>
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homology_%28biology%29>

BillK



From spike66 at att.net  Sun Feb  7 19:05:52 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 7 Feb 2016 11:05:52 -0800
Subject: [ExI] the next 20, was:  RE:  hand foot counterpart?
Message-ID: <001201d161da$91b88990$b5299cb0$@att.net>


On Behalf Of BillK
Subject: Re: [ExI] hand foot counterpart?

On 6 February 2016 at 17:18, spike wrote:
>>... I can?t think of a way to ask my search engine this question, so I 
> will Exi-Google my generally hip ExI friends please:  {etc}
...
>...You can't say 'functionally equivalent' as the functions are very different.
See:<http://www.theodora.com/anatomy/comparison_of_the_bones_of_the_hand_and_foot.html>
BillK

_______________________________________________

Cool thanks to Rafal, BillK and others.

Here's why I asked and how it relates to the next 20 IQ points.

Back in my misspent childhood, I lived within walking distance of the public library, and ooooh what a high that was, surfing the shelves, all this stuff people have figured out or seen, wrote books about it, and to my astonishment, here it all was, on the shelf, FREEEEEEEE free free, for anyone to take down, read it all up, like an information pacman, long before the actual pacman was invented.  Any yahoo could just go wobba wobba wobba down the shelf, read up all the books like gobbling energy dots, and you came out of there feeling like some kind of super-thing, ready to chase away the ghosts of ignorance, and it was all FREEEEE free free, a sole exception to the universal rule you get what you pay for.  This cost nothing, which was good because I owned no money then.  Inside that library, I could find out anything known to humanity, oh what a high.  It was like 20 free IQ points.

Years went by, misspent childhood progressed to misspent youth (much of which was also in the good old public library) to misspent young adulthood (still in the library, love that place, still do, paper books and all.)  

Suddenly, everything changed.  Most of us here (who are old enough to remember how it was before) know what it was like when competent search engines came along.  I am one who knows the exact day, 14 April 1994, because I wrote about it in my personal log at length.  The minute I saw a search engine, I realized the world had changed.  Mine certainly had.  I could now surf the library at home.  Better than that: this world-library internet was bigger than my local library, and had word-search capability.  It was another high: it was like being handed a surprise gift, unwrap, find that it is 20 more IQ points!  Cooool!  And ooooh how I loved that gift.  And still do.  You can go find out anything!  Oh for the information pacman, the hopelessly addicted data junkie, that was a high from which I still haven't sobered and don't want to.  I want to stay on that info-trip as long as I have at least two synapses still synapping at each other.

I am starting to get a sketchy vision of the next 20 IQ points, and these will be cherished ones indeed.

In the old days, we had 20 free IQ points, but only when we had time to go over to the library.  But I am not always able to go there.  After 19 April 1994, I had 20 more points, and these were easier to access, for all I had to do was be in front of my computer.  But I am not always in front of my computer.  With OK Google, we start to see how we can get 20 mote IQ points everywhere always.

Consider what we were talking about here in the mid to late 1990s: wearable computers.  Some of the ExI folks hung out there and some of the discussion spilled over.  We visions of a CRT and keyboards with shoulder harnesses to carry it (that was the joke (we already knew back then that I/O was the big showstopper (even before anyone had heard of LANs and broadband and so forth, we envisioned it.)))

All that stuff we talked about 20 yrs ago in the wearable computer group we have now.  All of it came to pass, in a way better than we envisioned: we have computers powerful enough to do internet which can (and is) carried in our pockets, we have the internet growing beyond our expectations (for we were afraid it would be only computer geek stuff and porn, which was a good portion of the internet in those days (all that bandwidth, tragically wasted on material having nothing to do with nekkidness, oy vey.)))  We have the voice recognition, which is surprisingly competent.  We have all that glorious knowledge transmitted by RF signals to our portable pocket computers!  We can even talk to each other and see other on them, just as the hipsters told us we would be able to do.

OK then, Gregory Stock's Metaman vision has come, and even he, the visionary of interconnectedness written in 1993 was insufficiently optimistic.

We have everything we need now to get the next 20, which focuses on the I/O bottleneck we have known about for some time.  It must have something to do with image recognition, which takes me all the way back to the original question: that hand/foot homologous structures question.  If I am out and see something interesting, I want to show that to my computer and ask it what I am seeing, even if it needs to be explained to some extent.

One of my son's friend's father has something going on with his arms.  If you and I stand and hook our thumbs on our belt, we see our elbows are bent at about a right angle.  This man's arms are proportioned such that his elbows are almost straight when he does that.  If he wants to fish something out of his pocket he must bend his trunk toward that side.  The homologous structures in his legs, paralogs (thanks Rafal!) are proportioned nominally.  His hands are approximately nominal I think, perhaps stubby, hard to tell.  When I saw that, I wanted to know right then, what that is called, what causes it, is it genetic, all the usual stuff an info-pacman wants to know for no reason but curiosity, but wants to know right there, right then, not when I get home, not when I can go to the library, now.  I am hungry for info NOW while I can gather more observations, right freaking forthwith now.  I am not impatient or anything, just inquisitive.

A lot of what I want is nature stuff.  If I am out for a walk and see a bug, I want hold my phone camera near it, have it do an image recognition, tell me interesting stuff about that particular bug.  That in itself would be such a breakthrough for those of us interested in buggery, but more than just that, way more.  

My phone knows where I am always.  I want it to tell me when I am near or upon interesting landmarks, historical stuff.  Here I am right near some of the oldest remaining landmarks in the Silicon revolution, and I went right past them for years before I even knew their significance.  I have driven right past the first lab set up by the "Traitorous Eight" original Fairchild guys who left Shockley, and never even noticed.  It is right down the street and a left turn from where Shockley's lab was torn down recently.  I want to know that kinda stuff.  No particular reason, might not even cover my head and worship prostrate before it.  Well, OK I might do that.  But either way, I want to know about oddball medical conditions when I encounter them, I want to know details of urban wildlife and entomology when I see it, I want to know when I am treading upon hallowed ground so I may remove my damn shoes and speak in low reverent tones as even I, unworthy to be called an emerging hipster, plead for techno-mercy and offer humble adoration before the cherished and sacred cradle of modern technology, the origin of everything I hold so dear.

Oh this will be so cool.  In some important ways, this will be the next 20 IQ points, and they will glorious ones.  We will love those, all of them.

spike









From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue Feb  9 15:51:42 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 10:51:42 -0500
Subject: [ExI] LIGO
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0ttW=78-tCjORLfLrSUuhx1zFxJJgXBbtjhGT1GtTNTw@mail.gmail.com>

On
? ?
Thursday at 10.30 EST (15.30GMT)
? ?
the
? ?
Laser Interferometer Gravitation-Wave Observatory
? ?
will announce if they've found gravitational waves or not after its recent
upgrade. Before the upgrade LIGO could detect binary neutron star mergers
50 million light years
?
away, after the upgrade it could detect them 650 light years away, a volume
over 2000 times larger. The physics world is full of rumors.

 John K Clark
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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Tue Feb  9 16:12:42 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 17:12:42 +0100
Subject: [ExI] LIGO
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv0ttW=78-tCjORLfLrSUuhx1zFxJJgXBbtjhGT1GtTNTw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv0ttW=78-tCjORLfLrSUuhx1zFxJJgXBbtjhGT1GtTNTw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFSjbzXWTk7HDUjZOC6Spbpzhsg7QMVVJkJG-QFGHcb4vA@mail.gmail.com>

It's betting time then!

I think, they will say, that NO gravitational waves have been detected so
far.

On Tue, Feb 9, 2016 at 4:51 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On
> ? ?
> Thursday at 10.30 EST (15.30GMT)
> ? ?
> the
> ? ?
> Laser Interferometer Gravitation-Wave Observatory
> ? ?
> will announce if they've found gravitational waves or not after its recent
> upgrade. Before the upgrade LIGO could detect binary neutron star mergers
> 50 million light years
> ?
> away, after the upgrade it could detect them 650 light years away, a
> volume over 2000 times larger. The physics world is full of rumors.
>
>  John K Clark
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Tue Feb  9 16:31:04 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 11:31:04 -0500
Subject: [ExI] LIGO
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFSjbzXWTk7HDUjZOC6Spbpzhsg7QMVVJkJG-QFGHcb4vA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv0ttW=78-tCjORLfLrSUuhx1zFxJJgXBbtjhGT1GtTNTw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFSjbzXWTk7HDUjZOC6Spbpzhsg7QMVVJkJG-QFGHcb4vA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv1t52_9s7HiVWZeXckeq9V=R2VSgAVc5A2v7LTnVmQCtg@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Feb 9, 2016 at 11:12 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
wrote:

?> ?
> It's betting time then!
> ? ?
> I think, they will say, that NO gravitational waves have been detected so
> far.
>

?If
they're not
?found ?
that could be even bigger news because that could mean there is something
seriously wrong with General Relativity; Einstein says they should be
there. It would be the first time Relativity failed to pass a experimental
test.
?So ?
I would bet they are found
?because generally it's not a good idea to bet against Einstein.

  John K Clark ?




>
>
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From giulio at gmail.com  Tue Feb  9 17:09:42 2016
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 18:09:42 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The Small Mammal Brain Preservation Prize Has Been Won
Message-ID: <CAKTCJyf6xO7mU=xYR7tefv_52ZLf6SdCad=M5saJnO4RHe9dTw@mail.gmail.com>

The Small Mammal Brain Preservation Prize Has Been Won

The Brain Preservation Foundation (BPF) announced that the Small Mammal
Brain Preservation Prize has officially been won. The spectacular result
achieved by 21st Century Medicine researchers provides the first
demonstration that near-perfect, long-term structural preservation of an
intact mammalian brain is achievable...

http://turingchurch.com/2016/02/09/the-small-mammal-brain-preservation-prize-has-been-won/
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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Feb  9 18:33:10 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 10:33:10 -0800
Subject: [ExI] The Small Mammal Brain Preservation Prize Has Been Won
In-Reply-To: <CAKTCJyf6xO7mU=xYR7tefv_52ZLf6SdCad=M5saJnO4RHe9dTw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAKTCJyf6xO7mU=xYR7tefv_52ZLf6SdCad=M5saJnO4RHe9dTw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <009101d16368$54358fc0$fca0af40$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Giulio Prisco
Subject: [ExI] The Small Mammal Brain Preservation Prize Has Been Won

 

>?The Small Mammal Brain Preservation Prize Has Been Won


http://turingchurch.com/2016/02/09/the-small-mammal-brain-preservation-prize-has-been-won/

 

 

The part that caught my attention is the vitrified brain is in some kind of medium that could separate the tissue from the cryonic medium.  That would allow us to use liquid air rather than LN2, which I think is cheaper and safer (Max do feel free to rescue me from error.)

 

The comment about storing at -135C suggests they are mixing something with the liquid air (or whatever the medium) to raise the boiling point, which would save perhaps a third of the cost of vaporized and loss of the cryonic medium (Max, heeeelllllp!)  

 

If there is some kind of solid medium around the brain tissue, it might really make a lot of things easier and cheaper in the handling and storage of the preserved tissue.  We could study mixtures such as liquid air/ethanol for instance, see how low that goes before the ethanol starts freezing out of the mixture.  

 

We could even do some fun stuff like get high school science fair projects trying different mixtures of liquid air/ethanol to find? uh? never mind.  High school kids, ethanol, bad idea.  The evaporation losses alone would be enormous.

 

Methanol freezing point is higher, so that is going off in the wrong direction, even if we don?t know what happens if we try to mix it with liquid air.

 

This seems like a fun chemical engineering project: get a bunch of yahoos independently trying mixtures of stuff which were not available to us before for this application, when the cryonic medium needed to be in physical contact with the preserved tissue.

 

I can imagine a hundred new ideas for what to try.  We should set up a Google Page spreadsheet to write them in and make educated guesses on the properties of the eutectic mixture, ja?  Have we Google Page hipsters who know how to set up such a trick?  We want open access to those who would donate ideas into the public domain, to organize the thoughts of our local volunteer chemistry hipsters.  

 

The goal: assume some kind of tissue to be preserved, already inside some kind of impermeable solid (as the article shows) and assume -135C.  What is the mixture which maintains that temperature (or lower) at 1 atmosphere pressure for the lowest cost?  Ethanol/air?  

 

spike

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From anders at aleph.se  Tue Feb  9 19:57:40 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 19:57:40 +0000
Subject: [ExI] The Small Mammal Brain Preservation Prize Has Been Won
In-Reply-To: <CAKTCJyf6xO7mU=xYR7tefv_52ZLf6SdCad=M5saJnO4RHe9dTw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAKTCJyf6xO7mU=xYR7tefv_52ZLf6SdCad=M5saJnO4RHe9dTw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56BA44B4.6020406@aleph.se>

Yup, this is great news.

As McIntyre says in the interview
http://gizmodo.com/brain-preservation-breakthrough-could-usher-in-a-new-er-1758022181?utm_campaign=socialflow_gizmodo_twitter&utm_source=gizmodo_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow 

?glutaraldehyde [bought] us weeks and the cryoprotectant [bought] us 
centuries.?

Of course, this is only useful if you think all the relevant information 
is preserved in the fixation. Protein states and small molecule chemical 
information may be messed up.


On 2016-02-09 17:09, Giulio Prisco wrote:
> The Small Mammal Brain Preservation Prize Has Been Won
>
> The Brain Preservation Foundation (BPF) announced that the Small 
> Mammal Brain Preservation Prize has officially been won. The 
> spectacular result achieved by 21st Century Medicine researchers 
> provides the first demonstration that near-perfect, long-term 
> structural preservation of an intact mammalian brain is achievable...
>
> http://turingchurch.com/2016/02/09/the-small-mammal-brain-preservation-prize-has-been-won/
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Tue Feb  9 23:03:13 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 17:03:13 -0600
Subject: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>

 Recognize that line from The Lord of the Ring?

Any how, here is a bit of news for high tech people:

The Dutch police are training eagles to catch and destroy illegal drones.

Low tech wins the day.  When a Republican wins the White House will they
create a new kind of air force?

bill w
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Tue Feb  9 23:17:48 2016
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 15:17:48 -0800
Subject: [ExI] The Small Mammal Brain Preservation Prize Has Been Won
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB4uNC56=-Gwdiup-mih=Utm+63WjcGFOJw1sZX6iORQrw@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Feb 9, 2016 at 10:47 AM,  "spike" <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> The part that caught my attention is the vitrified brain is in some kind of medium that could separate the tissue from the cryonic medium.  That would allow us to use liquid air rather than LN2, which I think is cheaper and safer (Max do feel free to rescue me from error.)

Not Max here, but emphatically No!  on both points.

Think about it.  LN2 boils significantly lower than LOX.  So as liquid
air sits around in dewars the nitrogen boils off first.  What's left?

> The comment about storing at -135C suggests they are mixing something with the liquid air (or whatever the medium) to raise the boiling point, which would save perhaps a third of the cost of vaporized and loss of the cryonic medium (Max, heeeelllllp!)

There are laboratory freezers that operate at that temperature.  That
is probably what they used.
>
> If there is some kind of solid medium around the brain tissue, it might really make a lot of things easier and cheaper in the handling and storage of the preserved tissue.  We could study mixtures such as liquid air/ethanol for instance, see how low that goes before the ethanol starts freezing out of the mixture.
>
> We could even do some fun stuff like get high school science fair projects trying different mixtures of liquid air/ethanol to find? uh? never mind.  High school kids, ethanol, bad idea.  The evaporation losses alone would be enormous.
>
> Methanol freezing point is higher, so that is going off in the wrong direction, even if we don?t know what happens if we try to mix it with liquid air.

But we do know.  Mix any alcohol with LOX or aged liquid air and you
get an explosive with more energy than TNT and more sensitive than
nitroglycerine.

The cryonics people have known for a long time that LN2 is colder than
needed.  But there is no solution (so far) for an economical way to
keep things at -135 deg C.

> This seems like a fun chemical engineering project: get a bunch of yahoos independently trying mixtures of stuff which were not available to us before for this application, when the cryonic medium needed to be in physical contact with the preserved tissue.

> I can imagine a hundred new ideas for what to try.  We should set up a Google Page spreadsheet to write them in and make educated guesses on the properties of the eutectic mixture, ja?  Have we Google Page hipsters who know how to set up such a trick?  We want open access to those who would donate ideas into the public domain, to organize the thoughts of our local volunteer chemistry hipsters.

> The goal: assume some kind of tissue to be preserved, already inside some kind of impermeable solid (as the article shows) and assume -135C.  What is the mixture which maintains that temperature (or lower) at 1 atmosphere pressure for the lowest cost?  Ethanol/air?

I am a fan of both cryonics and things that go boom!  But this is one
case where mixing hobbies seems less than optimal.

Keith



From spike66 at att.net  Tue Feb  9 23:14:28 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 15:14:28 -0800
Subject: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <013401d1638f$a1275e40$e3761ac0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace



 

 

>?The Dutch police are training eagles to catch and destroy illegal drones.

Low tech wins the day.  When a Republican wins the White House will they create a new kind of air force?

bill w

 

 

There is already a new type of air force.  These kinds of developments happen independently of who is in the White House.  Next up: a new kind of army.  Stand by.  Watch.

 

spike

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Tue Feb  9 23:34:33 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 17:34:33 -0600
Subject: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
In-Reply-To: <013401d1638f$a1275e40$e3761ac0$@att.net>
References: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
 <013401d1638f$a1275e40$e3761ac0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbBG4gGp5FkpTufA3p8DAHWD+s=rwvDB9QCsrq=7gKBSw@mail.gmail.com>

I was just ragging the defense- minded Repubs.  bill w

On Tue, Feb 9, 2016 at 5:14 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace
>
>
>
>
>
> *>?*The Dutch police are training eagles to catch and destroy illegal
> drones.
>
> Low tech wins the day.  When a Republican wins the White House will they
> create a new kind of air force?
>
> bill w
>
>
>
>
>
> There is already a new type of air force.  These kinds of developments
> happen independently of who is in the White House.  Next up: a new kind of
> army.  Stand by.  Watch.
>
>
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Wed Feb 10 00:18:52 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 16:18:52 -0800
Subject: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <BD434F70-CCEC-4A05-B870-7DE7F7EBC22A@gmail.com>

On Feb 9, 2016, at 3:03 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com> wrote:
>  Recognize that line from The Lord of the Ring?
> 
> Any how, here is a bit of news for high tech people:
> 
> The Dutch police are training eagles to catch and destroy illegal drones.
> 
> Low tech wins the day.  When a Republican wins the White House will they create a new kind of air force?

I imagine, if the story's true, this will work not against military or police drones, which are bigger and tougher and can fly faster and higher than eagles, but against consumer-type drones. The latter already get attacked by raptors and even cats. And what's meant by 'illegal' here? Ones flown by folks who didn't pay the tax or or otherwise not approved perhaps.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From spike66 at att.net  Wed Feb 10 00:38:47 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 16:38:47 -0800
Subject: [ExI] The Small Mammal Brain Preservation Prize Has Been Won
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB4uNC56=-Gwdiup-mih=Utm+63WjcGFOJw1sZX6iORQrw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB4uNC56=-Gwdiup-mih=Utm+63WjcGFOJw1sZX6iORQrw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <016d01d1639b$685337e0$38f9a7a0$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of Keith Henson
...

>...I am a fan of both cryonics and things that go boom!  But this is one
case where mixing hobbies seems less than optimal.

Keith

_______________________________________________

Well ja, there is that.  Having the locals hear an enormous boom, then
finding human heads raining down from the sky could have its negative
consequences.

How about liquid nitrogen and ethanol?  Would the two combined allow us to
hold a warmer temperature in the dewar which means lower boil-off of the
nitrogen?

spike



From spike66 at att.net  Wed Feb 10 00:58:39 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 16:58:39 -0800
Subject: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbBG4gGp5FkpTufA3p8DAHWD+s=rwvDB9QCsrq=7gKBSw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
 <013401d1638f$a1275e40$e3761ac0$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbBG4gGp5FkpTufA3p8DAHWD+s=rwvDB9QCsrq=7gKBSw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <018001d1639e$2ef6bdc0$8ce43940$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace
Subject: Re: [ExI] the eagles are coming!

 

>?I was just ragging the defense- minded Repubs.  bill w

 

 

 

Oh, ja OK.  

 

Low tech doesn?t really win the day there however.  For taking out the quad-rotor low-end drones, there are lasers easily capable of doing that.  That class of drones are low and slow, easy to detect on RADAR, easy to hit and take out, no good way to shield them (they can?t lift enough mass.)

 

Regarding a new kind of army, there is a reason why we never hear the end of the Benghazi attack on 11 Sept 2012.  For that kind of fixed asset (the embassy) there are pleeeeenty of good ways to defend that.  It could have been defended with non-lethal deterrence, with perfect identification friend or foe, the defenders sitting in air-conditioned offices in Nevada.  The attackers could have limped out of there under their own power with little serious permanent damage, the ambassador could have lived to ambassad another day (assuming that particular office is occupied by one who ambassads or who ambassaded at some time in the past.)

 

As for using eagles, the animal rights people will not like it.  Recall the proposals a long time ago for using pigeons to guide missiles.  That didn?t fly.  They have a point: nonhuman beasts should not be recruited to fight the wars of another species.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Wed Feb 10 01:49:16 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 19:49:16 -0600
Subject: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
In-Reply-To: <018001d1639e$2ef6bdc0$8ce43940$@att.net>
References: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
 <013401d1638f$a1275e40$e3761ac0$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbBG4gGp5FkpTufA3p8DAHWD+s=rwvDB9QCsrq=7gKBSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <018001d1639e$2ef6bdc0$8ce43940$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZbfdMfUyJeHBMRLBQoyNHWL=qbBfkf7VUTAzEVO2JGRg@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Feb 9, 2016 at 6:58 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
>
>
>
> >?I was just ragging the defense- minded Repubs.  bill w
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Oh, ja OK.
>
>
>
> Low tech doesn?t really win the day there however.  For taking out the
> quad-rotor low-end drones, there are lasers easily capable of doing that.
> That class of drones are low and slow, easy to detect on RADAR, easy to hit
> and take out, no good way to shield them (they can?t lift enough mass.)
>
>
>
> Regarding a new kind of army, there is a reason why we never hear the end
> of the Benghazi attack on 11 Sept 2012.  For that kind of fixed asset (the
> embassy) there are pleeeeenty of good ways to defend that.  It could have
> been defended with non-lethal deterrence, with perfect identification
> friend or foe, the defenders sitting in air-conditioned offices in Nevada.
> The attackers could have limped out of there under their own power with
> little serious permanent damage, the ambassador could have lived to
> ambassad another day (assuming that particular office is occupied by one
> who ambassads or who ambassaded at some time in the past.)
>
>
>
> As for using eagles, the animal rights people will not like it.  Recall
> the proposals a long time ago for using pigeons to guide missiles.  That
> didn?t fly.  They have a point: nonhuman beasts should not be recruited to
> fight the wars of another species.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
> ?Another reference to B F Skinner, w*ho demonstrated that pigeons could
> do much better than people in spotting people floating in the water.  As to
> why that was cancelled I just dunno.  And fyi - duck hawks can dive at 160
> mph.  Can drones better that?  bill w*
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From sjv2006 at gmail.com  Wed Feb 10 01:50:55 2016
From: sjv2006 at gmail.com (Stephen Van Sickle)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 17:50:55 -0800
Subject: [ExI] The Small Mammal Brain Preservation Prize Has Been Won
In-Reply-To: <016d01d1639b$685337e0$38f9a7a0$@att.net>
References: <CAPiwVB4uNC56=-Gwdiup-mih=Utm+63WjcGFOJw1sZX6iORQrw@mail.gmail.com>
 <016d01d1639b$685337e0$38f9a7a0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CADYziYCJT0=nJJ8xwSfgYRdSzaecM8-n5qRA1By8fg-6XWPyQA@mail.gmail.com>

They are immiscible.  You just get a slush of frozen ethanol at LN2
temperatures.

s

On Tue, Feb 9, 2016 at 4:38 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On
> Behalf
> Of Keith Henson
> ...
>
> >...I am a fan of both cryonics and things that go boom!  But this is one
> case where mixing hobbies seems less than optimal.
>
> Keith
>
> _______________________________________________
>
> Well ja, there is that.  Having the locals hear an enormous boom, then
> finding human heads raining down from the sky could have its negative
> consequences.
>
> How about liquid nitrogen and ethanol?  Would the two combined allow us to
> hold a warmer temperature in the dewar which means lower boil-off of the
> nitrogen?
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike66 at att.net  Wed Feb 10 02:24:56 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 18:24:56 -0800
Subject: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZbfdMfUyJeHBMRLBQoyNHWL=qbBfkf7VUTAzEVO2JGRg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
 <013401d1638f$a1275e40$e3761ac0$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbBG4gGp5FkpTufA3p8DAHWD+s=rwvDB9QCsrq=7gKBSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <018001d1639e$2ef6bdc0$8ce43940$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEZbfdMfUyJeHBMRLBQoyNHWL=qbBfkf7VUTAzEVO2JGRg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <01bf01d163aa$3c18bf60$b44a3e20$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace
?

As for using eagles, the animal rights people will not like it. ?

 

>?Can drones better that?  bill w

 

 

Well, ja.  But the comparison is for tools to take out drones.  The hawks take out those toy observation drones. 

 

 

>?And fyi - duck hawks can dive at 160 mph.

 

 

Photons can fly at 300 million meters per second.  Lasers are the way to take those things down.

 

spike

 

 

 

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From hibbert at mydruthers.com  Wed Feb 10 03:42:08 2016
From: hibbert at mydruthers.com (Chris Hibbert)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 19:42:08 -0800
Subject: [ExI] the next 20 IQ points
In-Reply-To: <mailman.79.1455043639.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.79.1455043639.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <56BAB190.9050709@mydruthers.com>

On 2/9/16 10:47 AM, extropy-chat-request at lists.extropy.org wrote:
> My phone knows where I am always.  I want it to tell me when I am
> near or upon interesting landmarks, historical stuff.  Here I am
> right near some of the oldest remaining landmarks in the Silicon
> revolution, and I went right past them for years before I even knew
> their significance.  I have driven right past the first lab set up by
> the "Traitorous Eight" original Fairchild guys who left Shockley, and
> never even noticed.  It is right down the street and a left turn from
> where Shockley's lab was torn down recently.  I want to know that
> kinda stuff.  No particular reason, might not even cover my head and
> worship prostrate before it.  Well, OK I might do that.

There's an app for that! Try downloading "Field Trip" for your smart 
phone (whichever variety you use.)  Disclaimer: I used to work for the 
group that produced Field Trip.

BTW: I like your concept of "the next 20".

Chris
-- 
All sensory cells [in all animals] have in common the presence of
... cilia [with a constant] structure.  It provides a strong
argument for common ancestry.  The common ancestor ... was a
spirochete bacterium.
   --Lynn Margulis (http://edge.org/q2005/q05_7.html#margulis)

Chris Hibbert
hibbert at mydruthers.com
http://mydruthers.com




From spike66 at att.net  Wed Feb 10 04:28:04 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 20:28:04 -0800
Subject: [ExI] the next 20 IQ points
In-Reply-To: <56BAB190.9050709@mydruthers.com>
References: <mailman.79.1455043639.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <56BAB190.9050709@mydruthers.com>
Message-ID: <003b01d163bb$700169b0$50043d10$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: Chris Hibbert [mailto:hibbert at mydruthers.com] 
Sent: Tuesday, February 09, 2016 7:42 PM
To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
Cc: spike <spike66 at att.net>
Subject: Re: the next 20 IQ points

On 2/9/16 10:47 AM, extropy-chat-request at lists.extropy.org wrote:
>>... My phone knows where I am always.  I want it to tell me when I am near

> or upon interesting landmarks, historical stuff.  Here I am right near 
> some of the oldest remaining landmarks in the Silicon revolution...  I
want to know that 
> kinda stuff.  No particular reason, might not even cover my head and 
> worship prostrate before it.  Well, OK I might do that.

>...There's an app for that! Try downloading "Field Trip" for your smart
phone (whichever variety you use.)  Disclaimer: I used to work for the group
that produced Field Trip...

Cool, thanks Chris!  Where the heck have you been hanging out, me lad?  We
haven't heard from you in a long time.

>...BTW: I like your concept of "the next 20"...Chris Hibbert

At least 20.  This is one of the few tech advances that will not take us by
surprise.  We can see this one coming, and we want it.  

When we are right there at the place where something happened, we take a new
interest, we learn about that topic.  It takes on a reality that we miss
when we are elsewhere.  Your Field Trip app is app-ropriately named.  Well
done sir.

Consider, that place over not far from that first Fairchild building, where
they are building the Apple Mothership.  How many geeks are going to know
what was there before the flying saucer?  HP had its headquarters there.  I
never worked at HP, but I had friends who did, and lived just across the
way.  We used to go walk the HP campus, just because it was a nice, clean
safe place to exercise.  In the old days it was an open campus.  

I want the Field Trip app to give us a feel of the fourth dimension, to tell
us when we are over there and cross Homestead on Wolfe going south: Today
this is Steve Jobs' vision of an office building, but before that HP had its
head shed here, from 1960 to 2009 and yakkity yak and bla bla, and before
that this was a cherry orchard and before that the Ohlone people
unsuccessfully struggled to master knapped flint, and before that the
mastodon roamed the area, etc.

I want to have it give me a good useful logarithmic timeline.  If we had
that everywhere, we would get a better feel for where we are on the timeline
of technological history and where the next few decades might take us.

spike



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Wed Feb 10 15:37:04 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 2016 09:37:04 -0600
Subject: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
In-Reply-To: <01bf01d163aa$3c18bf60$b44a3e20$@att.net>
References: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
 <013401d1638f$a1275e40$e3761ac0$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbBG4gGp5FkpTufA3p8DAHWD+s=rwvDB9QCsrq=7gKBSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <018001d1639e$2ef6bdc0$8ce43940$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEZbfdMfUyJeHBMRLBQoyNHWL=qbBfkf7VUTAzEVO2JGRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <01bf01d163aa$3c18bf60$b44a3e20$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbJLzenzq89Pegx+hDbEPyPDeFTG0dFksg1sNZXNLn4uQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, Feb 9, 2016 at 8:24 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace
> *?*
>
> As for using eagles, the animal rights people will not like it. ?
>
>
>
> *>?Can drones better that?  bill w*
>
>
>
>
>
> Well, ja.  But the comparison is for tools to take out drones.  The hawks
> take out those toy observation drones.
>
>
>
>
>
> *>?And fyi - duck hawks can dive at 160 mph.*
>
>
>
>
>
> Photons can fly at 300 million meters per second.  Lasers are the way to
> take those things down.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
> *?OK, I concede.  But can the drones be easily detected on radar when they
> fly, say, 100 feet high?  Birds can detect those easily and maybe radar
> can't.*
>
> ?bill w?


> *?*
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From tara at taramayastales.com  Wed Feb 10 04:58:31 2016
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2016 20:58:31 -0800
Subject: [ExI] the next 20 IQ points
In-Reply-To: <003b01d163bb$700169b0$50043d10$@att.net>
References: <mailman.79.1455043639.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <56BAB190.9050709@mydruthers.com> <003b01d163bb$700169b0$50043d10$@att.net>
Message-ID: <E43DA419-8D42-4C5A-964F-3763998020FC@taramayastales.com>

Maybe the app I want is already out there too. I always feel sad that when I look at a tree, or a flower, or a dog, or a car, all I think is: tree, flower, dog, car?. I know the the trees and flowers have species names as well as colloquial names, that the dogs have breeds, that the cars have whatever cars have. It would be cool if an app would point, click and tell me the name. Of course, it would work really well with a visual overlay in a GoogleGlass type device too, but even if it had the extra step of taking a picture, it would be cool. 

Tara 

> On Feb 9, 2016, at 8:28 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> 
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Chris Hibbert [mailto:hibbert at mydruthers.com] 
> Sent: Tuesday, February 09, 2016 7:42 PM
> To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> Cc: spike <spike66 at att.net>
> Subject: Re: the next 20 IQ points
> 
> On 2/9/16 10:47 AM, extropy-chat-request at lists.extropy.org wrote:
>>> ... My phone knows where I am always.  I want it to tell me when I am near
> 
>> or upon interesting landmarks, historical stuff.  Here I am right near 
>> some of the oldest remaining landmarks in the Silicon revolution...  I
> want to know that 
>> kinda stuff.  No particular reason, might not even cover my head and 
>> worship prostrate before it.  Well, OK I might do that.
> 
>> ...There's an app for that! Try downloading "Field Trip" for your smart
> phone (whichever variety you use.)  Disclaimer: I used to work for the group
> that produced Field Trip...
> 
> Cool, thanks Chris!  Where the heck have you been hanging out, me lad?  We
> haven't heard from you in a long time.
> 
>> ...BTW: I like your concept of "the next 20"...Chris Hibbert
> 
> At least 20.  This is one of the few tech advances that will not take us by
> surprise.  We can see this one coming, and we want it.  
> 
> When we are right there at the place where something happened, we take a new
> interest, we learn about that topic.  It takes on a reality that we miss
> when we are elsewhere.  Your Field Trip app is app-ropriately named.  Well
> done sir.
> 
> Consider, that place over not far from that first Fairchild building, where
> they are building the Apple Mothership.  How many geeks are going to know
> what was there before the flying saucer?  HP had its headquarters there.  I
> never worked at HP, but I had friends who did, and lived just across the
> way.  We used to go walk the HP campus, just because it was a nice, clean
> safe place to exercise.  In the old days it was an open campus.  
> 
> I want the Field Trip app to give us a feel of the fourth dimension, to tell
> us when we are over there and cross Homestead on Wolfe going south: Today
> this is Steve Jobs' vision of an office building, but before that HP had its
> head shed here, from 1960 to 2009 and yakkity yak and bla bla, and before
> that this was a cherry orchard and before that the Ohlone people
> unsuccessfully struggled to master knapped flint, and before that the
> mastodon roamed the area, etc.
> 
> I want to have it give me a good useful logarithmic timeline.  If we had
> that everywhere, we would get a better feel for where we are on the timeline
> of technological history and where the next few decades might take us.
> 
> spike
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

Tara Maya
Blog  |  Twitter  |  Facebook  |  Amazon  |  Goodreads






From spike66 at att.net  Wed Feb 10 16:52:16 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 2016 08:52:16 -0800
Subject: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbJLzenzq89Pegx+hDbEPyPDeFTG0dFksg1sNZXNLn4uQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
 <013401d1638f$a1275e40$e3761ac0$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbBG4gGp5FkpTufA3p8DAHWD+s=rwvDB9QCsrq=7gKBSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <018001d1639e$2ef6bdc0$8ce43940$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEZbfdMfUyJeHBMRLBQoyNHWL=qbBfkf7VUTAzEVO2JGRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <01bf01d163aa$3c18bf60$b44a3e20$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbJLzenzq89Pegx+hDbEPyPDeFTG0dFksg1sNZXNLn4uQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <003001d16423$66994a10$33cbde30$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace
?

 

?OK, I concede.  But can the drones be easily detected on radar when they fly, say, 100 feet high?  Birds can detect those easily and maybe radar can't.

?bill w

 

 

It would depend on the application, what it is you are trying to defend and your budget.

 

If the target is what they showed the eagle attacking, you would use something higher frequency than radio waves, probably a dual or multispectral detector going all the way up into near IR or possibly even into the visible spectrum, have a processor figure out what it is and whack it out of the sky.  For plenty of applications, you would want to recover the device, see what Snoopy had in mind, figure out who launched it, perhaps by recovering DNA, or downloading onboard memory.

 

If the drone is delivering an explosive device for instance, the constables want to study that and find out whodunit.

 

If they only had a GoPro and wanted to take photos at the local nudist colony, it isn?t as complicated, and doesn?t warrant anything more than a drone hawk, Mister Twelve Gage or even just a well-aimed water hose.  Then you get the device and the photos.  On the other hand, if you have ever actually been to a nudist colony you might question the value of risking a perfectly good toy drone for photos of that.

 

spike

?

 

 

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Wed Feb 10 17:23:03 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 2016 11:23:03 -0600
Subject: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
In-Reply-To: <003001d16423$66994a10$33cbde30$@att.net>
References: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
 <013401d1638f$a1275e40$e3761ac0$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaycom_ROVO-xSo6Bh2fFmiEb8ybBmtx0DkB5ZYGzkAcw@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Feb 10, 2016 at 10:52 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace
> *?*
>
>
>
> *?**OK**, I concede.  But can the drones be easily detected on radar when
> they fly, say, 100 feet high?  Birds can detect those easily and maybe
> radar can't.*
>
> ?bill w
>
>
>
>
>
> It would depend on the application, what it is you are trying to defend
> and your budget.
>
>
>
> If the target is what they showed the eagle attacking, you would use
> something higher frequency than radio waves, probably a dual or
> multispectral detector going all the way up into near IR or possibly even
> into the visible spectrum, have a processor figure out what it is and whack
> it out of the sky.  For plenty of applications, you would want to recover
> the device, see what Snoopy had in mind, figure out who launched it,
> perhaps by recovering DNA, or downloading onboard memory.
>
>
>
> If the drone is delivering an explosive device for instance, the
> constables want to study that and find out whodunit.
>
>
>
> If they only had a GoPro and wanted to take photos at the local nudist
> colony, it isn?t as complicated, and doesn?t warrant anything more than a
> drone hawk, Mister Twelve Gage or even just a well-aimed water hose.  Then
> you get the device and the photos.  On the other hand, if you have ever
> actually been to a nudist colony you might question the value of risking a
> perfectly good toy drone for photos of that.
>
>
>
> spike
>

?Aye, I've heard that about nudist colonies, and haven't gone to one.  Not
that I'm not proud, you see, but maybe not that proud.  In any case, not
the place for a married man and an introvert to boot, with a wife worth
looking at.

Thanks for all the info but I think you ducked the question (pun
intended).  Or maybe you don't know just how low a radar can detect
something.?

? Is 'under the radar' still applicable?  Or maybe it would be a
satellite?  I know they can read newspapers from up there?.  But can they
scan for low flying drones?  Our defense dept. has to be working on that.

> ?
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From spike66 at att.net  Wed Feb 10 18:07:54 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 2016 10:07:54 -0800
Subject: [ExI] the next 20 IQ points
In-Reply-To: <E43DA419-8D42-4C5A-964F-3763998020FC@taramayastales.com>
References: <mailman.79.1455043639.96.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <56BAB190.9050709@mydruthers.com> <003b01d163bb$700169b0$50043d10$@att.net>
 <E43DA419-8D42-4C5A-964F-3763998020FC@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <006b01d1642d$f7438bc0$e5caa340$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Tara Maya
Subject: Re: [ExI] the next 20 IQ points

>...Maybe the app I want is already out there too. I always feel sad that when I look at a tree, or a flower, or a dog, or a car, all I think is: tree, flower, dog, car?. I know the the trees and flowers have species names as well as colloquial names, that the dogs have breeds, that the cars have whatever cars have. It would be cool if an app would point, click and tell me the name. Of course, it would work really well with a visual overlay in a GoogleGlass type device too, but even if it had the extra step of taking a picture, it would be cool. ...Tara 

Sure, but wait, there's more.  OK we can probably do what you suggest.  Why do we want to know the name?  The name of something is a tool, or pathway to knowing something more, something cool about what you are seeing.  For nature stuff, we can get the taxonomy all the way, which is a good start.  What I want is some way to get to stuff like known behavior of a particular beast for instance, a kind of mobile wiki or OK Google, tuned to what it knows I like to know.

We overlook most wildlife because we focus on the meter scale stuff almost entirely.  Even the term wildlife to most people brings to mind lions and tigers and bears, oh my.  But really when you think about it, those three (and humans) are almost the same thing.  Anatomically, only slight variations on a theme.  Perhaps we add in birds, which have more diversity than the mammals, but even then, most wildlife is overlooked entirely, stepped upon, sprayed with toxins, ignored, avoided or reviled: all that stuff down on the centimeter scale and below.  That is your wildlife easiest to find, regardless of where you live, and has waaaay more diversity, in form, function and behavior.  This would give us a terrific application of the Next20 app, and a good example where just the taxonomical name would open a lot of doors.

More mundane stuff, but useful: cars.  What about the car?  Anything cool about it?  We get the fans of any particular car (or motorcycle) to write up some cool fun stuff about that car or bike, where it was made, how many, what years, any known flaws or characteristics, typical resale value if you care, that kind of thing.

Places: oh my, there is so much we could do with that.  Current use, future plans (if known) modern history, deeper into recent history, then to human history, then into geological history.  It causes a place to go four dimensional.

Think about where you are sitting right now.  What was there the day you were born?  What was there a hundred years ago?  A thousand?  A million?  Do you know?  I don't.  Still don't.  No clue, don't really know where or how to find out.  What was the coolest damn thing that happened within walking distance of where you are sitting?  (That part I know.)  Within 20 minutes drive?  An hour?  What process caused the geological formations visible from where you are now?  When did that happen?  Do you know approximately what you would find if you drilled straight down from your chair 10 meters?  100 meters?  Rock?  What kind of rock?  How close that stuff has been for all this time, yet we don't even know what the heck it is or how it got there.

We have been walking right past the library, never going inside.  We have been like the internet-enabled moderns who never log on.  We have been neglecting all the cool stuff we could be learning, ignorant for no justifiable reason, shambling along in darkness, following a candle in a cave when we could be out in the sparkling sunshine of the clear summer morning.  We are the first generation who has been handed the gift of a glorious alternative to ignorance.  Yet we are still going around not knowing stuff.  We need to stop that forthwith, and KNOW STUFF!

spike 









From spike66 at att.net  Wed Feb 10 18:38:12 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 2016 10:38:12 -0800
Subject: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaycom_ROVO-xSo6Bh2fFmiEb8ybBmtx0DkB5ZYGzkAcw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
 <013401d1638f$a1275e40$e3761ac0$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbBG4gGp5FkpTufA3p8DAHWD+s=rwvDB9QCsrq=7gKBSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <018001d1639e$2ef6bdc0$8ce43940$@att.net>
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 <01bf01d163aa$3c18bf60$b44a3e20$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <007d01d16432$33243b90$996cb2b0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace
?

 

?>?Thanks for all the info but I think you ducked the question (pun intended).  Or maybe you don't know just how low a radar can detect something.?..

What I meant was that radar isn?t the right tool for spotting low and slow camera drones, the kind of stuff you can train eagles to foil.  Radar waves are too long for that.  Those are better at spotting planes way out there.  For that kind of thing, you would use a microwave emitter/receiver, and move up from there.  A toy drone would be easy to spot a mile away with a microwave detector, and the whole rig is small enough to fit in the back of a light pickup truck.

If someone is speechifying and a bad guy wanted to launch from a couple km out, fly in close and hand her a small  but deadly explosive device for instance, it would be easy to set up a dual spectrum or multispectrum detector and the means to foil that plan.  I do hope this protection system is used.

>?Is 'under the radar' still applicable?  Or maybe it would be a satellite?  I know they can read newspapers from up there?.  But can they scan for low flying drones?  Our defense dept. has to be working on that.

 

Ja there are some types of radar planes can get under, but consider what radar was developed for: seeing a bunch of WW2-style bombers coming in at a couple hundred knots while they were still far enough out there to man the battle stations.  The attack on Pearl in 1941 would have turned out a lot differently had the Yankees been given one hour notice.

 

Scanning for drones is a different task which needs different tools.  We can do that.  I hope we do.

 

spike

 

? 

 

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From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Feb 10 20:14:49 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 2016 20:14:49 +0000
Subject: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
In-Reply-To: <007d01d16432$33243b90$996cb2b0$@att.net>
References: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAL_armjv5ugP3FE45=srccj-rM_ySFaWAcdak0-rZLTg9YCRKA@mail.gmail.com>

On 10 February 2016 at 18:38, spike  wrote:
> What I meant was that radar isn?t the right tool for spotting low and slow
> camera drones, the kind of stuff you can train eagles to foil.  Radar waves
> are too long for that.  Those are better at spotting planes way out there.
> For that kind of thing, you would use a microwave emitter/receiver, and move
> up from there.  A toy drone would be easy to spot a mile away with a
> microwave detector, and the whole rig is small enough to fit in the back of
> a light pickup truck.
>
> If someone is speechifying and a bad guy wanted to launch from a couple km
> out, fly in close and hand her a small  but deadly explosive device for
> instance, it would be easy to set up a dual spectrum or multispectrum
> detector and the means to foil that plan.  I do hope this protection system
> is used.
>
> Scanning for drones is a different task which needs different tools.  We can
> do that.  I hope we do.
>


Even 80 mph drones?????

<http://www.wired.com/2016/02/video-the-drone-racing-league-officially-launches/>


BillK



From danust2012 at gmail.com  Wed Feb 10 20:43:20 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 2016 12:43:20 -0800
Subject: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
In-Reply-To: <007d01d16432$33243b90$996cb2b0$@att.net>
References: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
 <013401d1638f$a1275e40$e3761ac0$@att.net>
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 <007d01d16432$33243b90$996cb2b0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <AFF74395-7E73-4ECE-85DC-5E5539E763DC@gmail.com>

On Feb 10, 2016, at 10:38 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote: 
> From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace
> ?
>  
> ?>?Thanks for all the info but I think you ducked the question (pun intended).  Or maybe you don't know just how low a radar can detect something.?..
> 
> What I meant was that radar isn?t the right tool for spotting low and slow camera drones, the kind of stuff you can train eagles to foil.  Radar waves are too long for that.  Those are better at spotting planes way out there.  For that kind of thing, you would use a microwave emitter/receiver, and move up from there.  A toy drone would be easy to spot a mile away with a microwave detector, and the whole rig is small enough to fit in the back of a light pickup truck.
> 
> If someone is speechifying and a bad guy wanted to launch from a couple km out, fly in close and hand her a small  but deadly explosive device for instance, it would be easy to set up a dual spectrum or multispectrum detector and the means to foil that plan.  I do hope this protection system is used.
> 
> >?Is 'under the radar' still applicable?  Or maybe it would be a satellite?  I know they can read newspapers from up there?.  But can they scan for low flying drones?  Our defense dept. has to be working on that.
>  
> Ja there are some types of radar planes can get under, but consider what radar was developed for: seeing a bunch of WW2-style bombers coming in at a couple hundred knots while they were still far enough out there to man the battle stations.  The attack on Pearl in 1941 would have turned out a lot differently had the Yankees been given one hour notice.

The US did have radar and spotted the planes coming in, but communications and interpretations issues trumped that. The same can happen with more modern systems. I think the lesson of Pearl Harbor was more one of not looking for what you don't expect: the US was expecting sabotage not an air raid. So it looked for and planned against sabotage while ignoring signs of and planning against an air raid. But that is hindsight bias.

A bigger lesson is that in order to not be surprised too often one has to be a little more imaginative and do a lot more intelligence collection. And the latter doesn't mean listening in on every phone call. It would've been far better to have a few spies in well placed positions in the Japanese government and military than listening in on every communication in Japan.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 16:13:53 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 11:13:53 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
Message-ID: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>

On Sept. 14
? ?
at 4am the LIGO
?detector in ?
Livingston
? Louisiana  ?
detected a burst ?
?of gravitational waves, ?7 milliseconds later the LIGO detector in Hanford
Washington detected the same thing. The possibility of this being due to
chance is
vanishingly small
?. What they detected was 2 black holes circling each other at 250 times a
second, one was 36 times the mass of the sun and the other 29 times. The
entire signal only lasted for a fifth of a second.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/science/ligo-gravitational-waves-black-holes-einstein.html
?

J?ohn K Clark
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From giulio at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 16:19:14 2016
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 17:19:14 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <B3760F1E-9F14-493B-8499-B2A3F5A1635D@gmail.com>

Just watched webcast, great stuff!

> On Feb 11, 2016, at 5:13 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> On Sept. 14? ?at 4am the LIGO ?detector in ?Livingston? Louisiana  ?detected a burst ??of gravitational waves, ?7 milliseconds later the LIGO detector in Hanford Washington detected the same thing. The possibility of this being due to chance is vanishingly small?. What they detected was 2 black holes circling each other at 250 times a second, one was 36 times the mass of the sun and the other 29 times. The entire signal only lasted for a fifth of a second. 
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/science/ligo-gravitational-waves-black-holes-einstein.html?   
> 
> J?ohn K Clark
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 16:25:23 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 16:25:23 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgaNnwWhL=AYUx5y0e-poVRRaoCWdvbGNZwG6m42ViFzw@mail.gmail.com>

On 11 February 2016 at 16:13, John Clark  wrote:
> On Sept. 14 at 4am the LIGO detector in Livingston Louisiana  detected a burst
> of gravitational waves, 7 milliseconds later the LIGO detector in Hanford
> Washington detected the same thing. The possibility of this being due to
> chance is vanishingly small. What they detected was 2 black holes circling
> each other at 250 times a second, one was 36 times the mass of the sun
> and the other 29 times. The entire signal only lasted for a fifth of a second.
>
> http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/science/ligo-gravitational-waves-black-holes-einstein.html
>


I'm feeling queasy already. Maybe I'm allergic.
Can I claim sickness benefit for this?    :)

BillK


From giulio at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 16:34:49 2016
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 17:34:49 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>

I'm wondering how many zillions of sentient beings died as a result of the black hole fusion event.

> On Feb 11, 2016, at 5:13 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> On Sept. 14? ?at 4am the LIGO ?detector in ?Livingston? Louisiana  ?detected a burst ??of gravitational waves, ?7 milliseconds later the LIGO detector in Hanford Washington detected the same thing. The possibility of this being due to chance is vanishingly small?. What they detected was 2 black holes circling each other at 250 times a second, one was 36 times the mass of the sun and the other 29 times. The entire signal only lasted for a fifth of a second. 
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/science/ligo-gravitational-waves-black-holes-einstein.html?   
> 
> J?ohn K Clark
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 17:29:38 2016
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 12:29:38 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPc-dmPTAAWAxcoDxBPCuG_=7rBL59qLPYo2yaLYaC1EAw@mail.gmail.com>

Gravitational waves were the subject of my PhD dissertation. I worked for
LIGO for several years before I switched to work in neuroscience. I have
about 40 papers authored with the collaboration. My advisor spent all his
science career observing noise. Everybody knew it would have been one of
the most incredible discoveries in science if we detect GWs but it was very
frustrating to look at years of data that was only noise.
This is now changed and it is an amazing feeling.
A new window on the universe is now open.

Giovanni

On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 11:34 AM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:

> I'm wondering how many zillions of sentient beings died as a result of the
> black hole fusion event.
>
> On Feb 11, 2016, at 5:13 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> On Sept. 14
> ? ?
> at 4am the LIGO
> ?detector in ?
> Livingston
> ? Louisiana  ?
> detected a burst ?
> ?of gravitational waves, ?7 milliseconds later the LIGO detector in
> Hanford Washington detected the same thing. The possibility of this being
> due to chance is
> vanishingly small
> ?. What they detected was 2 black holes circling each other at 250 times a
> second, one was 36 times the mass of the sun and the other 29 times. The
> entire signal only lasted for a fifth of a second.
>
>
> http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/science/ligo-gravitational-waves-black-holes-einstein.html
> ?
>
> J?ohn K Clark
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From anders at aleph.se  Thu Feb 11 17:16:20 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 17:16:20 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>

Depends on the number of civs per galaxy, and whether they are checking 
for black hole binaries. A rough calculation suggests that this could 
wipe out biospheres across a galaxy:

If we assume the energy release was around 10^50 J over a second, then 
the power per square meter at distance d is 10^50/(4 pi r^2) Watts. So 
the criticial distance if the danger power is P is r=sqrt(10^50/4 pi P). 
If we assume a megawatt/m^2 is enough to cause biosphere damage, then 
the distance is 298,000 lightyears. To wipe out more advanced 
civilizations I would expect a much higher P; for a gigawatt the range 
is 9,400 lightyears - bad in the central part of a galaxy, but not even 
covering it.

So if you are an optimist about civilizations, then you should expect a 
fair number to have at least had to flee over long distances from this.

I wonder if one can make a gravity wave powered sail? I doubt it, since 
most matter is too transparent to the gravity waves to get any decent 
coupling. But black holes sometimes get a 1000 km/s kick from mergers.


On 2016-02-11 16:34, Giulio Prisco wrote:
> I'm wondering how many zillions of sentient beings died as a result of 
> the black hole fusion event.
>
> On Feb 11, 2016, at 5:13 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com 
> <mailto:johnkclark at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
>> On Sept. 14
>> ? ?
>> at 4am the LIGO
>> ? detector in ?
>> Livingston
>> ? Louisiana  ?
>> detected a burst ?
>> ? of gravitational waves, ?7 milliseconds later the LIGO detector in 
>> Hanford Washington detected the same thing. The possibility of this 
>> being due to chance is
>> vanishingly small
>> ? . What they detected was 2 black holes circling each other at 250 
>> times a second, one was 36 times the mass of the sun and the other 29 
>> times. The entire signal only lasted for a fifth of a second.
>>
>> http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/science/ligo-gravitational-waves-black-holes-einstein.html 
>>
>> ?
>>
>> J ?ohn K Clark
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 17:42:31 2016
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 12:42:31 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPc8+QiRQgEY63NWimJ4N=Qsj1YM3BJTZfD4vHhRWOWHEg@mail.gmail.com>

The first paper of a series on the discovery is here:

http://www.nature.com/news/ligo-live-inside-the-hunt-for-gravitational-waves-1.19344



On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 12:16 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> Depends on the number of civs per galaxy, and whether they are checking
> for black hole binaries. A rough calculation suggests that this could wipe
> out biospheres across a galaxy:
>
> If we assume the energy release was around 10^50 J over a second, then the
> power per square meter at distance d is 10^50/(4 pi r^2) Watts. So the
> criticial distance if the danger power is P is r=sqrt(10^50/4 pi P). If we
> assume a megawatt/m^2 is enough to cause biosphere damage, then the
> distance is 298,000 lightyears. To wipe out more advanced civilizations I
> would expect a much higher P; for a gigawatt the range is 9,400 lightyears
> - bad in the central part of a galaxy, but not even covering it.
>
> So if you are an optimist about civilizations, then you should expect a
> fair number to have at least had to flee over long distances from this.
>
> I wonder if one can make a gravity wave powered sail? I doubt it, since
> most matter is too transparent to the gravity waves to get any decent
> coupling. But black holes sometimes get a 1000 km/s kick from mergers.
>
>
> On 2016-02-11 16:34, Giulio Prisco wrote:
>
> I'm wondering how many zillions of sentient beings died as a result of the
> black hole fusion event.
>
> On Feb 11, 2016, at 5:13 PM, John Clark < <johnkclark at gmail.com>
> johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> On Sept. 14
> ? ?
> at 4am the LIGO
> ? detector in ?
> Livingston
> ? Louisiana  ?
> detected a burst ?
> ? of gravitational waves, ?7 milliseconds later the LIGO detector in
> Hanford Washington detected the same thing. The possibility of this being
> due to chance is
> vanishingly small
> ? . What they detected was 2 black holes circling each other at 250 times
> a second, one was 36 times the mass of the sun and the other 29 times. The
> entire signal only lasted for a fifth of a second.
>
>
> <http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/science/ligo-gravitational-waves-black-holes-einstein.html>
> http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/12/science/ligo-gravitational-waves-black-holes-einstein.html
> ?
>
> J ?ohn K Clark
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing listextropy-chat at lists.extropy.orghttp://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
> --
> Anders Sandberg
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Oxford University
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From spike66 at att.net  Thu Feb 11 17:46:35 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 09:46:35 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00a401d164f4$27726020$76572060$@att.net>

 

 

Oh this is so cool.  So cool.

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Giulio Prisco
Sent: Thursday, February 11, 2016 8:35 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!

 

>?I'm wondering how many zillions of sentient beings died as a result of the black hole fusion event?

 

 

 

 

Guilio, black holes merging wouldn?t necessarily harm sentient beings in the neighborhood.  I haven?t seen papers on the that topic, but I can speculate some will be written soon.

 

spike

 

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From dsa at unsa.edu.ar  Thu Feb 11 18:00:57 2016
From: dsa at unsa.edu.ar (Diego Saravia)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 15:00:57 -0300
Subject: [ExI] the eagles are coming!
In-Reply-To: <AFF74395-7E73-4ECE-85DC-5E5539E763DC@gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbrpevV7_xAZqBUiNeZSZsWmB9-bHNa_BvfeT1O8sW7_g@mail.gmail.com>
 <013401d1638f$a1275e40$e3761ac0$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbBG4gGp5FkpTufA3p8DAHWD+s=rwvDB9QCsrq=7gKBSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <018001d1639e$2ef6bdc0$8ce43940$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEZbfdMfUyJeHBMRLBQoyNHWL=qbBfkf7VUTAzEVO2JGRg@mail.gmail.com>
 <01bf01d163aa$3c18bf60$b44a3e20$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEbJLzenzq89Pegx+hDbEPyPDeFTG0dFksg1sNZXNLn4uQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <003001d16423$66994a10$33cbde30$@att.net>
 <CAO+xQEaycom_ROVO-xSo6Bh2fFmiEb8ybBmtx0DkB5ZYGzkAcw@mail.gmail.com>
 <007d01d16432$33243b90$996cb2b0$@att.net>
 <AFF74395-7E73-4ECE-85DC-5E5539E763DC@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAE9KQ2FVGZ7ik6vmW6ARz9azBeo8Y5xfgD-W2MudwZTUxPtpUQ@mail.gmail.com>

falcons vs pidgeos in dubai

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYmn5SP2a1M

perhaps drones could be vindicated by making one that can scare pidgeons



2016-02-10 17:43 GMT-03:00 Dan TheBookMan <danust2012 at gmail.com>:

> On Feb 10, 2016, at 10:38 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org>] *On Behalf Of *William Flynn
> Wallace
> *?*
>
>
>
> ?>?Thanks for all the info but I think you ducked the question (pun
> intended).  Or maybe you don't know just how low a radar can detect
> something.?..
>
> What I meant was that radar isn?t the right tool for spotting low and slow
> camera drones, the kind of stuff you can train eagles to foil.  Radar waves
> are too long for that.  Those are better at spotting planes way out there.
> For that kind of thing, you would use a microwave emitter/receiver, and
> move up from there.  A toy drone would be easy to spot a mile away with a
> microwave detector, and the whole rig is small enough to fit in the back of
> a light pickup truck.
>
> If someone is speechifying and a bad guy wanted to launch from a couple km
> out, fly in close and hand her a small  but deadly explosive device for
> instance, it would be easy to set up a dual spectrum or multispectrum
> detector and the means to foil that plan.  I do hope this protection system
> is used.
>
> >?Is 'under the radar' still applicable?  Or maybe it would be a
> satellite?  I know they can read newspapers from up there?.  But can they
> scan for low flying drones?  Our defense dept. has to be working on that.
>
>
>
> Ja there are some types of radar planes can get under, but consider what
> radar was developed for: seeing a bunch of WW2-style bombers coming in at a
> couple hundred knots while they were still far enough out there to man the
> battle stations.  The attack on Pearl in 1941 would have turned out a lot
> differently had the Yankees been given one hour notice.
>
>
> The US did have radar and spotted the planes coming in, but communications
> and interpretations issues trumped that. The same can happen with more
> modern systems. I think the lesson of Pearl Harbor was more one of not
> looking for what you don't expect: the US was expecting sabotage not an air
> raid. So it looked for and planned against sabotage while ignoring signs of
> and planning against an air raid. But that is hindsight bias.
>
> A bigger lesson is that in order to not be surprised too often one has to
> be a little more imaginative and do a lot more intelligence collection. And
> the latter doesn't mean listening in on every phone call. It would've been
> far better to have a few spies in well placed positions in the Japanese
> government and military than listening in on every communication in Japan.
>
> Regards,
>
> Dan
>   Sample my Kindle books via:
> http://author.to/DanUst
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
Diego Saravia
Diego.Saravia at gmail.com
NO FUNCIONA->dsa at unsa.edu.ar

====================================================================
"Disclaimer:" Har? lo que desee con los correos que reciba, quien no este
de acuerdo, que se abstenga de enviarme correo a m? o a las listas donde
este suscripto.
En particular NO VALE ningun "disclaimer" que indique que el correo enviado
es privado o sujeto a normas de empresas, gobiernos, u organizaciones de
cualquier tipo.
Con relaci?n a los estados y sus leyes, analizare cualquier norma aplicable
en el territorio donde eventualmente act?e en el momento, escucho a
cualquiera que tenga algo que decir.
Con respecto en particular a los derechos de autor, salvo acuerdo previo,
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From spike66 at att.net  Thu Feb 11 17:50:26 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 09:50:26 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
?

>?If we assume the energy release was around 10^50 J over a second, then the power per square meter at distance d is 10^50/(4 pi r^2) Watts. So the criticial distance if the danger power is P is r=sqrt(10^50/4 pi P). If we assume a megawatt/m^2 is enough to cause biosphere damage, then the distance is 298,000 lightyears. To wipe out more advanced civilizations I would expect a much higher P; for a gigawatt the range is 9,400 lightyears - bad in the central part of a galaxy, but not even covering it?

 

Anders, cool, but we need to know how GW energy would interact with matter before we conclude that it would nuke biomes.  

spike

 
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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 18:12:51 2016
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 13:12:51 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <00a401d164f4$27726020$76572060$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>
 <00a401d164f4$27726020$76572060$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPfr3cQD+oxksVw2Z9Zf_Aem_+ifLRbdLEMJbLB4=En74Q@mail.gmail.com>

What is amazing is the perfect correspondence between detected signal and
GR prediction. Notice the difference between the two detectors signals is
due to the orientation of each interferometer big L towards the location of
the source (that changes slightly its sensitivity to it).
I attach a figure from paper.

Giovanni

On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 12:46 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> Oh this is so cool.  So cool.
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *Giulio Prisco
> *Sent:* Thursday, February 11, 2016 8:35 AM
> *To:* ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
>
>
>
> >?I'm wondering how many zillions of sentient beings died as a result of
> the black hole fusion event?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Guilio, black holes merging wouldn?t necessarily harm sentient beings in
> the neighborhood.  I haven?t seen papers on the that topic, but I can
> speculate some will be written soon.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From giulio at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 18:39:47 2016
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 19:39:47 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
Message-ID: <B5E2228C-1DF9-453A-B97D-33AA206F2786@gmail.com>

The energy that kills an entire galaxy would be released as hard gamma rays. "Hot enough to break nuclei at 50,000 light years" (Egan's Diaspora)

> On Feb 11, 2016, at 6:50 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> 
>  
>  
> From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
> ?
> 
> >?If we assume the energy release was around 10^50 J over a second, then the power per square meter at distance d is 10^50/(4 pi r^2) Watts. So the criticial distance if the danger power is P is r=sqrt(10^50/4 pi P). If we assume a megawatt/m^2 is enough to cause biosphere damage, then the distance is 298,000 lightyears. To wipe out more advanced civilizations I would expect a much higher P; for a gigawatt the range is 9,400 lightyears - bad in the central part of a galaxy, but not even covering it?
>  
> 
> Anders, cool, but we need to know how GW energy would interact with matter before we conclude that it would nuke biomes. 
> 
> spike
> 
>  
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 18:44:22 2016
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 13:44:22 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <B5E2228C-1DF9-453A-B97D-33AA206F2786@gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <B5E2228C-1DF9-453A-B97D-33AA206F2786@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPdGi1aSN-WzRTDNPH5vDkZ43EejRP4u6pS04s-vj7cuww@mail.gmail.com>

I think most of the energy though was channeled in to gravitational waves.
They would not be so deadly at long distances from the source.

On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 1:39 PM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:

> The energy that kills an entire galaxy would be released as hard gamma
> rays. "Hot enough to break nuclei at 50,000 light years" (Egan's Diaspora)
>
> On Feb 11, 2016, at 6:50 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org>] *On Behalf Of *Anders Sandberg
> *?*
>
> >?If we assume the energy release was around 10^50 J over a second, then
> the power per square meter at distance d is 10^50/(4 pi r^2) Watts. So the
> criticial distance if the danger power is P is r=sqrt(10^50/4 pi P). If we
> assume a megawatt/m^2 is enough to cause biosphere damage, then the
> distance is 298,000 lightyears. To wipe out more advanced civilizations I
> would expect a much higher P; for a gigawatt the range is 9,400 lightyears
> - bad in the central part of a galaxy, but not even covering it?
>
>
>
> Anders, cool, but we need to know how GW energy would interact with matter
> before we conclude that it would nuke biomes.
>
> spike
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 19:02:17 2016
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 14:02:17 -0500
Subject: [ExI]  Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <B5E2228C-1DF9-453A-B97D-33AA206F2786@gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <B5E2228C-1DF9-453A-B97D-33AA206F2786@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPeV1K4wFE1dm06MaKS=pbaD4CVuuNbuphbaixCKYyhmZA@mail.gmail.com>

I think most of the energy though was channeled in to gravitational waves, n

On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 1:39 PM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:

> The energy that kills an entire galaxy would be released as hard gamma
> rays. "Hot enough to break nuclei at 50,000 light years" (Egan's Diaspora)
>
> On Feb 11, 2016, at 6:50 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *Anders Sandberg
> *?*
>
> >?If we assume the energy release was around 10^50 J over a second, then
> the power per square meter at distance d is 10^50/(4 pi r^2) Watts. So the
> criticial distance if the danger power is P is r=sqrt(10^50/4 pi P). If we
> assume a megawatt/m^2 is enough to cause biosphere damage, then the
> distance is 298,000 lightyears. To wipe out more advanced civilizations I
> would expect a much higher P; for a gigawatt the range is 9,400 lightyears
> - bad in the central part of a galaxy, but not even covering it?
>
>
>
> Anders, cool, but we need to know how GW energy would interact with matter
> before we conclude that it would nuke biomes.
>
> spike
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 19:04:57 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 20:04:57 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAL+RtPdGi1aSN-WzRTDNPH5vDkZ43EejRP4u6pS04s-vj7cuww@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <B5E2228C-1DF9-453A-B97D-33AA206F2786@gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPdGi1aSN-WzRTDNPH5vDkZ43EejRP4u6pS04s-vj7cuww@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFSvrG4Pu2CJh1FneFKiTZ8J9Eps7f8_3q0ODcCFJYo2SA@mail.gmail.com>

I was wrong. Simply wrong.

On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 7:44 PM, Giovanni Santostasi <gsantostasi at gmail.com>
wrote:

> I think most of the energy though was channeled in to gravitational waves.
> They would not be so deadly at long distances from the source.
>
> On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 1:39 PM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> The energy that kills an entire galaxy would be released as hard gamma
>> rays. "Hot enough to break nuclei at 50,000 light years" (Egan's Diaspora)
>>
>> On Feb 11, 2016, at 6:50 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
>> <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org>] *On Behalf Of *Anders Sandberg
>> *?*
>>
>> >?If we assume the energy release was around 10^50 J over a second, then
>> the power per square meter at distance d is 10^50/(4 pi r^2) Watts. So the
>> criticial distance if the danger power is P is r=sqrt(10^50/4 pi P). If we
>> assume a megawatt/m^2 is enough to cause biosphere damage, then the
>> distance is 298,000 lightyears. To wipe out more advanced civilizations I
>> would expect a much higher P; for a gigawatt the range is 9,400 lightyears
>> - bad in the central part of a galaxy, but not even covering it?
>>
>>
>>
>> Anders, cool, but we need to know how GW energy would interact with
>> matter before we conclude that it would nuke biomes.
>>
>> spike
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 19:07:06 2016
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 14:07:06 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>

GW interacts with matter very, very, very weakly. So unless you are really
close to the event you would not be impacted.
Few event horizons radii away from the source and the GW become
ridiculously small in terms of strain.
In the radiation zone the strain h goes down linearly with distance. I can
do more precise calculations but GW are so difficult to detect exactly
because they don't interact strongly with matter.

Giovanni


On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 12:50 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *Anders Sandberg
> *?*
>
> >?If we assume the energy release was around 10^50 J over a second, then
> the power per square meter at distance d is 10^50/(4 pi r^2) Watts. So the
> criticial distance if the danger power is P is r=sqrt(10^50/4 pi P). If we
> assume a megawatt/m^2 is enough to cause biosphere damage, then the
> distance is 298,000 lightyears. To wipe out more advanced civilizations I
> would expect a much higher P; for a gigawatt the range is 9,400 lightyears
> - bad in the central part of a galaxy, but not even covering it?
>
>
>
> Anders, cool, but we need to know how GW energy would interact with matter
> before we conclude that it would nuke biomes.
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 19:09:50 2016
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 14:09:50 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFSvrG4Pu2CJh1FneFKiTZ8J9Eps7f8_3q0ODcCFJYo2SA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <B5E2228C-1DF9-453A-B97D-33AA206F2786@gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPdGi1aSN-WzRTDNPH5vDkZ43EejRP4u6pS04s-vj7cuww@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFSvrG4Pu2CJh1FneFKiTZ8J9Eps7f8_3q0ODcCFJYo2SA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPc38yRzFMR=hMFvQgojgatXp-_zaOQdJuztfxO25BiZwQ@mail.gmail.com>

On what?

On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 2:04 PM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> I was wrong. Simply wrong.
>
> On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 7:44 PM, Giovanni Santostasi <
> gsantostasi at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> I think most of the energy though was channeled in to gravitational
>> waves. They would not be so deadly at long distances from the source.
>>
>> On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 1:39 PM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> The energy that kills an entire galaxy would be released as hard gamma
>>> rays. "Hot enough to break nuclei at 50,000 light years" (Egan's Diaspora)
>>>
>>> On Feb 11, 2016, at 6:50 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
>>> <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org>] *On Behalf Of *Anders Sandberg
>>> *?*
>>>
>>> >?If we assume the energy release was around 10^50 J over a second,
>>> then the power per square meter at distance d is 10^50/(4 pi r^2) Watts. So
>>> the criticial distance if the danger power is P is r=sqrt(10^50/4 pi P). If
>>> we assume a megawatt/m^2 is enough to cause biosphere damage, then the
>>> distance is 298,000 lightyears. To wipe out more advanced civilizations I
>>> would expect a much higher P; for a gigawatt the range is 9,400 lightyears
>>> - bad in the central part of a galaxy, but not even covering it?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Anders, cool, but we need to know how GW energy would interact with
>>> matter before we conclude that it would nuke biomes.
>>>
>>> spike
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> extropy-chat mailing list
>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> extropy-chat mailing list
>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>>
>>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>
>
> --
> https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 19:22:29 2016
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 14:22:29 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAL+RtPc38yRzFMR=hMFvQgojgatXp-_zaOQdJuztfxO25BiZwQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <B5E2228C-1DF9-453A-B97D-33AA206F2786@gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPdGi1aSN-WzRTDNPH5vDkZ43EejRP4u6pS04s-vj7cuww@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFSvrG4Pu2CJh1FneFKiTZ8J9Eps7f8_3q0ODcCFJYo2SA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPc38yRzFMR=hMFvQgojgatXp-_zaOQdJuztfxO25BiZwQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPfjzSJdV_FLy9Ux6tViQjiPNevKYOnnShViW8yAK0Q62A@mail.gmail.com>

And this is the paper that contains the astrophysical implications of the
discovery:

https://dcc.ligo.org/LIGO-P1500262/public/main

On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 2:09 PM, Giovanni Santostasi <gsantostasi at gmail.com>
wrote:

> On what?
>
> On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 2:04 PM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> I was wrong. Simply wrong.
>>
>> On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 7:44 PM, Giovanni Santostasi <
>> gsantostasi at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> I think most of the energy though was channeled in to gravitational
>>> waves. They would not be so deadly at long distances from the source.
>>>
>>> On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 1:39 PM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> The energy that kills an entire galaxy would be released as hard gamma
>>>> rays. "Hot enough to break nuclei at 50,000 light years" (Egan's Diaspora)
>>>>
>>>> On Feb 11, 2016, at 6:50 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
>>>> <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org>] *On Behalf Of *Anders
>>>> Sandberg
>>>> *?*
>>>>
>>>> >?If we assume the energy release was around 10^50 J over a second,
>>>> then the power per square meter at distance d is 10^50/(4 pi r^2) Watts. So
>>>> the criticial distance if the danger power is P is r=sqrt(10^50/4 pi P). If
>>>> we assume a megawatt/m^2 is enough to cause biosphere damage, then the
>>>> distance is 298,000 lightyears. To wipe out more advanced civilizations I
>>>> would expect a much higher P; for a gigawatt the range is 9,400 lightyears
>>>> - bad in the central part of a galaxy, but not even covering it?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Anders, cool, but we need to know how GW energy would interact with
>>>> matter before we conclude that it would nuke biomes.
>>>>
>>>> spike
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>> extropy-chat mailing list
>>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>> extropy-chat mailing list
>>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> extropy-chat mailing list
>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>
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From spike66 at att.net  Thu Feb 11 19:29:55 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 11:29:55 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Giovanni Santostasi
Sent: Thursday, February 11, 2016 11:07 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!

 

GW interacts with matter very, very, very weakly. So unless you are really close to the event you would not be impacted. 
Few event horizons radii away from the source and the GW become ridiculously small in terms of strain. 
In the radiation zone the strain h goes down linearly with distance. I can do more precise calculations but GW are so difficult to detect exactly because they don't interact strongly with matter. 

 

Giovanni 

 

 

Ja that?s the story I heard too.  My reasoning goes thus: we can estimate how much energy is released by merging black holes.  Then if we assume all that goes into the kinds of energy that interacts strongly with matter, then there would be easily detected signals everywhere, for merging black holes would be an event perhaps in the same order of magnitude likelihood as a type 1A supernova, and we see those here and there.

 

Ander might know the answer better than I do, but my understanding is that GWs are hard to detect, which is why we needed those big elaborate devices to find even one.

 

There is another kicker here: back in the early 90s, when Kip Thorne and Drever and those guys were setting up LIGO, there were good arguments at the time, some with pretty convincing-looking equations in refereed papers, that GWs would never be detected with that technology.  As I recall, the argument was that the interferometry techniques couldn?t get sufficient resolution to see GWs, which those same papers agreed are there.  They claimed LIGO was a big waste of money, that this signal couldn?t be extracted from background noise, that GWs would be difficult to detect even if it happened in the local group of galaxies, and so forth.

 

It has been over twenty years since Thorne?s Black Holes book came out, and I didn?t really understand it then, so I might still not be getting this.  But it feels good that those two detectors both saw the signal.  Needless to say, the headlines totally made my day.

 

spike

 

 

 

 



 

On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 12:50 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net <mailto:spike66 at att.net> > wrote:

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> ] On Behalf Of Anders Sandberg
?

>?If we assume the energy release was around 10^50 J over a second, then the power per square meter at distance d is 10^50/(4 pi r^2) Watts. So the criticial distance if the danger power is P is r=sqrt(10^50/4 pi P). If we assume a megawatt/m^2 is enough to cause biosphere damage, then the distance is 298,000 lightyears. To wipe out more advanced civilizations I would expect a much higher P; for a gigawatt the range is 9,400 lightyears - bad in the central part of a galaxy, but not even covering it?

 

Anders, cool, but we need to know how GW energy would interact with matter before we conclude that it would nuke biomes.  

spike

 


_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> 
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

 

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From spike66 at att.net  Thu Feb 11 19:38:09 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 11:38:09 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFSvrG4Pu2CJh1FneFKiTZ8J9Eps7f8_3q0ODcCFJYo2SA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <B5E2228C-1DF9-453A-B97D-33AA206F2786@gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPdGi1aSN-WzRTDNPH5vDkZ43EejRP4u6pS04s-vj7cuww@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFSvrG4Pu2CJh1FneFKiTZ8J9Eps7f8_3q0ODcCFJYo2SA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <012c01d16503$bd8bfb70$38a3f250$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Tomaz Kristan
Sent: Thursday, February 11, 2016 11:05 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!

 

I was wrong. Simply wrong.

 

 

 

Tomaz, how do you know you were simply wrong?  Can you show me the equations you now use to prove yourself wrong?

 

I can?t.  I am looking thru my green notebooks where I calculated this stuff tragically many years ago, and realizing I didn?t understand the weirdness of General Relativity then, and I don?t understand it now.  I am durn sure not ready to second-guess Anders, but I am older than that fine young man, and recall the discussions among the astronomy geeks in the 80s.

 

Somehow I convinced myself then that GW pulses even a million LY distant or even closer would be a nothing-burger.  I can?t follow my reasoning however.  I was smarter back then in some ways.  Dumber in others.  Now I can?t tell which is which.

 

Have we some astrophysics hipsters among us please?  Can you offer us the equations you guys are using these days?

 

spike

 

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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 19:53:19 2016
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 14:53:19 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPc_AeEk+o1sp1Ab+=NNn9QvGFqvbcq=SJb9VsOKdvWVwg@mail.gmail.com>

Spike,
The energy in GW was the equivalent of 3 solar masses all converted into
radiation.
If that energy was all emitted in visible light this event would have been
as bright as 50 times as all the visible light in the visible universe !

About the detection of GW, they made incredible advances in signal to noise
ratio in the last 20 years. Also the type of source that was detected first
was somehow unexpected.
While black hole mergers was one of the possible sources anticipated, the
masses involved in the merger were not. So this source is much brighter in
the GW spectrum than most of the expected brightest sources.

That is what happens when you open new windows in the universe, most of the
brightest sources are stuff you didn't predict.

But besides the masses involved the signal is textbook GR. Pretty amazing.
After years of observing noise and only noise in the data of LIGO (that was
pretty boring) I have stared these signals for hours now with amazement.
I'm not part of the collaboration now but this is a great achievement for
humankind.

















On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 2:29 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *Giovanni Santostasi
> *Sent:* Thursday, February 11, 2016 11:07 AM
> *To:* ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
>
>
>
> GW interacts with matter very, very, very weakly. So unless you are really
> close to the event you would not be impacted.
> Few event horizons radii away from the source and the GW become
> ridiculously small in terms of strain.
> In the radiation zone the strain h goes down linearly with distance. I can
> do more precise calculations but GW are so difficult to detect exactly
> because they don't interact strongly with matter.
>
>
>
> Giovanni
>
>
>
>
>
> Ja that?s the story I heard too.  My reasoning goes thus: we can estimate
> how much energy is released by merging black holes.  Then if we assume all
> that goes into the kinds of energy that interacts strongly with matter,
> then there would be easily detected signals everywhere, for merging black
> holes would be an event perhaps in the same order of magnitude likelihood
> as a type 1A supernova, and we see those here and there.
>
>
>
> Ander might know the answer better than I do, but my understanding is that
> GWs are hard to detect, which is why we needed those big elaborate devices
> to find even one.
>
>
>
> There is another kicker here: back in the early 90s, when Kip Thorne and
> Drever and those guys were setting up LIGO, there were good arguments at
> the time, some with pretty convincing-looking equations in refereed papers,
> that GWs would never be detected with that technology.  As I recall, the
> argument was that the interferometry techniques couldn?t get sufficient
> resolution to see GWs, which those same papers agreed are there.  They
> claimed LIGO was a big waste of money, that this signal couldn?t be
> extracted from background noise, that GWs would be difficult to detect even
> if it happened in the local group of galaxies, and so forth.
>
>
>
> It has been over twenty years since Thorne?s Black Holes book came out,
> and I didn?t really understand it then, so I might still not be getting
> this.  But it feels good that those two detectors both saw the signal.
> Needless to say, the headlines totally made my day.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> [image: Image removed by sender.]
>
>
>
> On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 12:50 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *Anders Sandberg
> *?*
>
> >?If we assume the energy release was around 10^50 J over a second, then
> the power per square meter at distance d is 10^50/(4 pi r^2) Watts. So the
> criticial distance if the danger power is P is r=sqrt(10^50/4 pi P). If we
> assume a megawatt/m^2 is enough to cause biosphere damage, then the
> distance is 298,000 lightyears. To wipe out more advanced civilizations I
> would expect a much higher P; for a gigawatt the range is 9,400 lightyears
> - bad in the central part of a galaxy, but not even covering it?
>
>
>
> Anders, cool, but we need to know how GW energy would interact with matter
> before we conclude that it would nuke biomes.
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Feb 11 20:35:53 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 15:35:53 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>
 <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv1=CbGOdkYrQSLTj0D5FOM1zqpezJakQ=boy9dVODBndQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 2:29 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

> back in the early 90s, when Kip Thorne and Drever and those guys were
> setting up LIGO, there were good arguments at the time, some with pretty
> convincing-looking equations in refereed papers, that GWs would never be
> detected with that technology.  As I recall, the argument was that the
> interferometry techniques couldn?t get sufficient resolution to see GWs,
> which those same papers agreed are there.
>

?And the critics were correct, the old ?
?LIGO wasn't sensitive enough to detect gravitational waves unless you were
unrealistically lucky and 2 black holes happened to merge very near to
Earth , but after LEGO big upgrade  it could detect when the distance
between 2 mirrors 2 and a half miles ?away changed by only 10^-18 meters
(less than one thousandth the width of a proton) and that was good enough
to get the job done.

  John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Thu Feb 11 21:37:11 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 13:37:11 -0800
Subject: [ExI] ants in the uwave,
	was: RE:  Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
Message-ID: <01a201d16514$5e762f50$1b628df0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark
Sent: Thursday, February 11, 2016 12:36 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!

 

 

 

On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 2:29 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net <mailto:spike66 at att.net> > wrote:

>>? back in the early 90s, when Kip Thorne and Drever and those guys were setting up LIGO, there were good arguments at the time, some with pretty convincing-looking equations in refereed papers, that GWs would never be detected with that technology.  As I recall, the argument was that the interferometry techniques couldn?t get sufficient resolution to see GWs, which those same papers agreed are there.

 

?>?And the critics were correct, the old ?

?LIGO wasn't sensitive enough to detect gravitational waves unless you were unrealistically lucky and 2 black holes happened to merge very near to Earth , but after LEGO big upgrade  it could detect when the distance between 2 mirrors 2 and a half miles ?away changed by only 10^-18 meters (less than one thousandth the width of a proton) and that was good enough to get the job done.  John K Clark

 

 

Cool thanks John.  After struggling to grasp Thorne?s book I didn?t revisit the topic and didn?t realize they had upgraded those instruments.

 

Do you know of any reliable sources regarding what happens to biomes if gravity waves are formed nearby?  I had kinda envisioned it as like ants in the microwave: they don?t seem to notice.  

 

Here?s one for you, since I am drifting off the topic anyway: ants do die in the microwave, if you put them on the outside of a turntable.  You need to have them in something so they don?t just wander away.  I haven?t tried it with other beasts, but don?t bother contacting SPCA, they don?t care about bugs.  They might as well call it SPCM because they think anything that isn?t a mammal isn?t an animal.  Silly persons.

 

spike

 

 

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From anders at aleph.se  Thu Feb 11 23:28:55 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 23:28:55 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
Message-ID: <56BD1937.5000504@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-11 17:50, spike wrote:
>
> Anders, cool, but we need to know how GW energy would interact with 
> matter before we conclude that it would nuke biomes.

OK, I was using the normal style of energy estimates used in supernova 
xrisk considerations.

Now, for gravitational waves being lethal, the strain must presumably be 
large enough to cause induction of forces that are damaging. To a ~1 m 
object like a human, you probably need a strain on the order of more 
than 1/100 to induce damage (1/10 seems really likely to do it). The 
strain scales as 1/r, so given that the detected strain here was on the 
order of 10^-19, we get dangerous strain when 10^17 times closer to the 
source (which is at around 410 Mpc). That is, we get dangerous strain 
within 126,526 kilometers.

So I would not worry about gravity waves.

http://arxiv.org/abs/0911.3889 has some estimates for EM effects, which 
look like they are 10^-13 times the gravity waves. So that looks pretty 
safe: about a year of solar energy output per solar mass radiated away 
as gravity waves. Presumably this could scale up if the EM environment 
near the holes was stronger.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From spike66 at att.net  Fri Feb 12 01:00:28 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 17:00:28 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <56BD1937.5000504@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net> <56BD1937.5000504@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <021701d16530$c48d86a0$4da893e0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of Anders Sandberg
Sent: Thursday, February 11, 2016 3:29 PM
To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
Subject: Re: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!

 

On 2016-02-11 17:50, spike wrote:



 

Anders, cool, but we need to know how GW energy would interact with matter
before we conclude that it would nuke biomes.


>.OK, I was using the normal style of energy estimates used in supernova
xrisk considerations.

>.Now, for gravitational waves being lethal, the strain must presumably be
large enough to cause induction of forces that are damaging. To a ~1 m
object like a human, you probably need a strain on the order of more than
1/100 to induce damage (1/10 seems really likely to do it). The strain
scales as 1/r, so given that the detected strain here was on the order of
10^-19, we get dangerous strain when 10^17 times closer to the source (which
is at around 410 Mpc). That is, we get dangerous strain within 126,526
kilometers. 

>.So I would not worry about gravity waves. 
.
-- 

Anders Sandberg
 
 
Cool, thanks I am feeling better already.
 
When I was doing these calcs a long time ago it was before the internet
really amounted to much of anything.  I don't recall using the strain
criterion.  Really don't remember how the hell I figured it out and can't
find the calcs.  I found the notebooks from that timeframe, but not those
BOTECs.  
 
Shows to go ya: write it in some form you can retrieve it later.
 
Now that I think about it, I have never seen merging black holes or GWs as
an explanation for the silence of the cosmos.
 
Oh this is a fun time to be alive, oh my, oooooooh what an orgasmic time to
be here.
 
spike
 
 
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From anders at aleph.se  Fri Feb 12 02:24:04 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 12 Feb 2016 02:24:04 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <021701d16530$c48d86a0$4da893e0$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net> <56BD1937.5000504@aleph.se>
 <021701d16530$c48d86a0$4da893e0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <56BD4244.1080008@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-12 01:00, spike wrote:
>
> Now that I think about it, I have never seen merging black holes or 
> GWs as an explanation for the silence of the cosmos.

Me neither. I was actually a bit surprised today when I did my skim of 
the literature - people love to claim their favorite astronomical 
phenomenon causes the Fermi paradox, but nobody seems to have argued for 
black hole mergers. Gamma ray bursts, sure, even supernovas and gas 
clouds, but no mergers.


I am working on a paper on the Fermi paradox actually. Somewhat 
pessimistic conclusion in terms of number of aliens, but rather hopeful 
in terms of the great filter. Will post more when I get the numbers 
properly. But first things first: statistics of confused underwriters 
this week, next week statistics of confused SETI researchers!

(If anybody has seen a good table of different published estimates for 
the Drake equation parameters from different authors, I would be much 
obliged: I am having great fun compiling an overview of who thinks what 
about the parameters.)

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Fri Feb 12 02:32:35 2016
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 21:32:35 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <56BD4244.1080008@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net> <56BD1937.5000504@aleph.se>
 <021701d16530$c48d86a0$4da893e0$@att.net> <56BD4244.1080008@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPcVYQKM=LvxXQhoGF8q+nWSy0-+K-tRkNBBN+GEdPvb7Q@mail.gmail.com>

Yeah, I agree with Anders calculations on the strain that would be
dangerous. As I said before you need to be very very close to source to be
a real problem.




On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 9:24 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2016-02-12 01:00, spike wrote:
>
>
> Now that I think about it, I have never seen merging black holes or GWs as
> an explanation for the silence of the cosmos.
>
>
> Me neither. I was actually a bit surprised today when I did my skim of the
> literature - people love to claim their favorite astronomical phenomenon
> causes the Fermi paradox, but nobody seems to have argued for black hole
> mergers. Gamma ray bursts, sure, even supernovas and gas clouds, but no
> mergers.
>
>
> I am working on a paper on the Fermi paradox actually. Somewhat
> pessimistic conclusion in terms of number of aliens, but rather hopeful in
> terms of the great filter. Will post more when I get the numbers properly.
> But first things first: statistics of confused underwriters this week, next
> week statistics of confused SETI researchers!
>
> (If anybody has seen a good table of different published estimates for the
> Drake equation parameters from different authors, I would be much obliged:
> I am having great fun compiling an overview of who thinks what about the
> parameters.)
>
> --
> Anders Sandberg
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Oxford University
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Feb 12 03:10:41 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 22:10:41 -0500
Subject: [ExI] ants in the uwave,
	was: RE: Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <01a201d16514$5e762f50$1b628df0$@att.net>
References: <01a201d16514$5e762f50$1b628df0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2P4YVGRF2_t+R0DCJQ3dxEJDty7F-aUpCtA0emB_OYpA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 4:37 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:


> ?> ?
> Here?s one for you, since I am drifting off the topic anyway: ants do die
> in the microwave, if you put them on the outside of a turntable.  You need
> to have them in something so they don?t just wander away.  I haven?t tried
> it with other beasts, but don?t bother contacting SPCA, they don?t care
> about bugs.  They might as well call it SPCM because they think anything
> that isn?t a mammal isn?t an animal.  Silly persons.


Speaking of
? ?
microwave
? ?
ovens
?,?
if you have one and a chocolate bar you can measure the speed of light. Put
the chocolate bar
? ?
in the oven for about 20 seconds then measure the distance between
?the spots of ?
melted chocolate.
? ?
Microwave
? ?
ovens work at 2.45 gigahertz
? ?
so if you double the distance
?you measured ?
(to get a full wavelength) and then multiply that by
? ?
2,450,000,000
? ?
you should get 3
?00?
,000,000, meters per second.

I guess ants aren't smart enough to move to a point halfway between hot
spots.

 John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Fri Feb 12 03:31:26 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2016 19:31:26 -0800
Subject: [ExI] ants in the uwave,
	was: RE: Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2P4YVGRF2_t+R0DCJQ3dxEJDty7F-aUpCtA0emB_OYpA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <01a201d16514$5e762f50$1b628df0$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv2P4YVGRF2_t+R0DCJQ3dxEJDty7F-aUpCtA0emB_OYpA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <002401d16545$dbbd9a80$9338cf80$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of John Clark
?

 

>?I guess ants aren't smart enough to move to a point halfway between hot spots.

 

 John K Clark

 

On the contrary John.  Get a sheet of paper, make a nearly closed goo ring with bait in the middle of the ring.  Let the ants find it.  Wait until there are plenty of them, then close the goo ring with a number of them inside.  Put the whole thing in the microwave and let em have it.  They do move away from the hotspots.

 

Now if you put them inside a plastic or glass container and set the container on the perimeter of a turntable, they then move in and out of the hotspots, which I already knew about.  In that case, they perish.  

 

I was eleven years old when microwave ovens first came along, and oh what a toy that was.  Such a wonderful physic lab is a microwave oven.  We take them for granted now, but not so much in 1972.

 

spike

 

 

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From giulio at gmail.com  Fri Feb 12 06:30:25 2016
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Fri, 12 Feb 2016 07:30:25 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1=CbGOdkYrQSLTj0D5FOM1zqpezJakQ=boy9dVODBndQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>
 <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1=CbGOdkYrQSLTj0D5FOM1zqpezJakQ=boy9dVODBndQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 9:35 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> And the critics were correct, the old
> LIGO wasn't sensitive enough to detect gravitational waves unless you were
> unrealistically lucky and 2 black holes happened to merge very near to Earth

I wouldn't call that "lucky." The astronomers (and the rest of
humanity) would have been killed immediately by a close black hole
fusion event.


From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Fri Feb 12 07:40:01 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Fri, 12 Feb 2016 08:40:01 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1=CbGOdkYrQSLTj0D5FOM1zqpezJakQ=boy9dVODBndQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFQANttPjdNAFi4KFwtbmakAVozag976gaXkJ19tmw-9VA@mail.gmail.com>

Spike ... and everybody else.

I have the following problem. Merging of two distant black holes bends
those mirrors. More or less like the Moon or a plane flying above, also
bends those V or L shape structure. We call it - the tidal force as a
function of time. And this is routinely dismissed as not a gravity wave,

Now .. in a Newtonian world, a merging of two distant black holes would
still be detectable as a tidal force function developing in time.

And a big enough tidal force oscillation can kill you as well.

My wrong prognosis was only, that they will not announce this detection
yet. But they did.



On Fri, Feb 12, 2016 at 7:30 AM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 9:35 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > And the critics were correct, the old
> > LIGO wasn't sensitive enough to detect gravitational waves unless you
> were
> > unrealistically lucky and 2 black holes happened to merge very near to
> Earth
>
> I wouldn't call that "lucky." The astronomers (and the rest of
> humanity) would have been killed immediately by a close black hole
> fusion event.
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Fri Feb 12 14:40:24 2016
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Fri, 12 Feb 2016 09:40:24 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFQANttPjdNAFi4KFwtbmakAVozag976gaXkJ19tmw-9VA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1=CbGOdkYrQSLTj0D5FOM1zqpezJakQ=boy9dVODBndQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQANttPjdNAFi4KFwtbmakAVozag976gaXkJ19tmw-9VA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPcneJE4Oz1oULHLrA6EvdFSHrBcXomW_Yju3cp71wBQPQ@mail.gmail.com>

The reason they are called waves is because the calculation of the bending
of space time is done under the assumption the detection is performed far
away from the source. It is a linearization process that simplifies the
very complicated Einstein equation (that by the way we don't know how to
solve fully even computationally).


 As with EM radiation if you are too close to the source you get all kind
of non linear effects (even more so with gravity) and you don't get the
nice linear waves (2 waves with amplitude A sum up to 1 wave with amplitude
2 A) you get when you do the calculation in the radiation field.
When you solve the Einstein equations at a large distance from a source
like two mutually orbiting masses then you get a solution that looks like a
wave with a certain frequency and frequency derivative (and you can deduce
the speed of this wave from the constants involved). The strain produced by
the waves decays with 1/r.

Tidal forces are proportional to 1/r^3 so they decay very fast as you move
away from the source.
So tidal forces are part of the same phenomenon of space-time warping but
not gravitational waves per se.




On Fri, Feb 12, 2016 at 2:40 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Spike ... and everybody else.
>
> I have the following problem. Merging of two distant black holes bends
> those mirrors. More or less like the Moon or a plane flying above, also
> bends those V or L shape structure. We call it - the tidal force as a
> function of time. And this is routinely dismissed as not a gravity wave,
>
> Now .. in a Newtonian world, a merging of two distant black holes would
> still be detectable as a tidal force function developing in time.
>
> And a big enough tidal force oscillation can kill you as well.
>
> My wrong prognosis was only, that they will not announce this detection
> yet. But they did.
>
>
>
> On Fri, Feb 12, 2016 at 7:30 AM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 9:35 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> > And the critics were correct, the old
>> > LIGO wasn't sensitive enough to detect gravitational waves unless you
>> were
>> > unrealistically lucky and 2 black holes happened to merge very near to
>> Earth
>>
>> I wouldn't call that "lucky." The astronomers (and the rest of
>> humanity) would have been killed immediately by a close black hole
>> fusion event.
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>
>
>
> --
> https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Fri Feb 12 15:28:30 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Fri, 12 Feb 2016 16:28:30 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAL+RtPcneJE4Oz1oULHLrA6EvdFSHrBcXomW_Yju3cp71wBQPQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1=CbGOdkYrQSLTj0D5FOM1zqpezJakQ=boy9dVODBndQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQANttPjdNAFi4KFwtbmakAVozag976gaXkJ19tmw-9VA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPcneJE4Oz1oULHLrA6EvdFSHrBcXomW_Yju3cp71wBQPQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFQbziG9uPbPD0fzTeTGQ2oi8+Zp10rOxzqoB95gDvjjzw@mail.gmail.com>

> The strain produced by the waves decays with 1/r.

> Tidal forces are proportional to 1/r^3 so they decay very fast as you
move away from the source.

It's then either G-wave originated 10^9 ly away, or some tidal effect 10^3
ly away. Like a neutron star inner collapse to a black hole, for example.

Those two are indistinguishable for LIGO, I presume.

On Fri, Feb 12, 2016 at 3:40 PM, Giovanni Santostasi <gsantostasi at gmail.com>
wrote:

> The reason they are called waves is because the calculation of the bending
> of space time is done under the assumption the detection is performed far
> away from the source. It is a linearization process that simplifies the
> very complicated Einstein equation (that by the way we don't know how to
> solve fully even computationally).
>
>
>  As with EM radiation if you are too close to the source you get all kind
> of non linear effects (even more so with gravity) and you don't get the
> nice linear waves (2 waves with amplitude A sum up to 1 wave with amplitude
> 2 A) you get when you do the calculation in the radiation field.
> When you solve the Einstein equations at a large distance from a source
> like two mutually orbiting masses then you get a solution that looks like a
> wave with a certain frequency and frequency derivative (and you can deduce
> the speed of this wave from the constants involved). The strain produced by
> the waves decays with 1/r.
>
> Tidal forces are proportional to 1/r^3 so they decay very fast as you move
> away from the source.
> So tidal forces are part of the same phenomenon of space-time warping but
> not gravitational waves per se.
>
>
>
>
> On Fri, Feb 12, 2016 at 2:40 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Spike ... and everybody else.
>>
>> I have the following problem. Merging of two distant black holes bends
>> those mirrors. More or less like the Moon or a plane flying above, also
>> bends those V or L shape structure. We call it - the tidal force as a
>> function of time. And this is routinely dismissed as not a gravity wave,
>>
>> Now .. in a Newtonian world, a merging of two distant black holes would
>> still be detectable as a tidal force function developing in time.
>>
>> And a big enough tidal force oscillation can kill you as well.
>>
>> My wrong prognosis was only, that they will not announce this detection
>> yet. But they did.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Fri, Feb 12, 2016 at 7:30 AM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 9:35 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> > And the critics were correct, the old
>>> > LIGO wasn't sensitive enough to detect gravitational waves unless you
>>> were
>>> > unrealistically lucky and 2 black holes happened to merge very near to
>>> Earth
>>>
>>> I wouldn't call that "lucky." The astronomers (and the rest of
>>> humanity) would have been killed immediately by a close black hole
>>> fusion event.
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> extropy-chat mailing list
>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From spike66 at att.net  Fri Feb 12 15:32:07 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Fri, 12 Feb 2016 07:32:07 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1=CbGOdkYrQSLTj0D5FOM1zqpezJakQ=boy9dVODBndQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <005e01d165aa$89184590$9b48d0b0$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of Giulio Prisco
Sent: Thursday, February 11, 2016 10:30 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!

On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 9:35 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

>>... And the critics were correct, the old
> LIGO wasn't sensitive enough to detect gravitational waves unless you 
> were unrealistically lucky and 2 black holes happened to merge very 
> near to Earth

>...I wouldn't call that "lucky." The astronomers (and the rest of
humanity) would have been killed immediately by a close black hole fusion
event.
_______________________________________________


Giulio, can you prove that?

It is vaguely coming back to me now, that which I was calculating a quarter
of a century ago.  I was trying to figure out if I could explain gamma ray
bursts by some kind of axial spray of neutrinos from the merging of two
black holes or the merging of a black hole with a neutron star.  Couldn't do
it.

Next I started wondering what does happen with all that spin and energy and
such?  You can do the integration and see that the event horizon changed
significantly, and you can use the old c^2 relationship and figure out an
energy equivalent and so forth.  Thorne kinda explains it in his book.

I don't recall my reasoning at the time, but I do recall that my conclusion
was that if two black holes merged at a distance of the nearest star (about
4 light years) we could scarcely notice here.  If the earth were orbiting
two stars (curcumbinary like Tatooine) and they merged and became a black
hole at that distance, we would survive at first.  The merger itself would
cause a huge GW wave but we would perish from lack of energy.

Oy, those IQ points I used for that have been assigned elsewhere.

spike



From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Fri Feb 12 15:47:13 2016
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Fri, 12 Feb 2016 10:47:13 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFQbziG9uPbPD0fzTeTGQ2oi8+Zp10rOxzqoB95gDvjjzw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1=CbGOdkYrQSLTj0D5FOM1zqpezJakQ=boy9dVODBndQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQANttPjdNAFi4KFwtbmakAVozag976gaXkJ19tmw-9VA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPcneJE4Oz1oULHLrA6EvdFSHrBcXomW_Yju3cp71wBQPQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQbziG9uPbPD0fzTeTGQ2oi8+Zp10rOxzqoB95gDvjjzw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPeeDOFDE+CfwyiRbEK3avpkSvEAWmzz=N4c4jio2nhXCA@mail.gmail.com>

No because it is not just a burst.
You have a beautiful time evolution of the signal. In fact you can separate
the detected signal in 3 parts: inspiraling, merger and ring down. They use
relativistic approximate equations (basically an expansion with correction
at many decimal places) to find a model that fits the observed data and
only a merger of black holes with certain masses, orientation towards the
detector, spin and distance fits with high accuracy the data. It is almost
incredible how well the model actually fits the data. Besides some non
Gaussian noise that is always present in the detector the observed
waveforms look like the solution of a GR graduate textbook end of chapter
exercise problem.



On Fri, Feb 12, 2016 at 10:28 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> > The strain produced by the waves decays with 1/r.
>
> > Tidal forces are proportional to 1/r^3 so they decay very fast as you
> move away from the source.
>
> It's then either G-wave originated 10^9 ly away, or some tidal effect 10^3
> ly away. Like a neutron star inner collapse to a black hole, for example.
>
> Those two are indistinguishable for LIGO, I presume.
>
> On Fri, Feb 12, 2016 at 3:40 PM, Giovanni Santostasi <
> gsantostasi at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> The reason they are called waves is because the calculation of the
>> bending of space time is done under the assumption the detection is
>> performed far away from the source. It is a linearization process that
>> simplifies the very complicated Einstein equation (that by the way we don't
>> know how to solve fully even computationally).
>>
>>
>>  As with EM radiation if you are too close to the source you get all kind
>> of non linear effects (even more so with gravity) and you don't get the
>> nice linear waves (2 waves with amplitude A sum up to 1 wave with amplitude
>> 2 A) you get when you do the calculation in the radiation field.
>> When you solve the Einstein equations at a large distance from a source
>> like two mutually orbiting masses then you get a solution that looks like a
>> wave with a certain frequency and frequency derivative (and you can deduce
>> the speed of this wave from the constants involved). The strain produced by
>> the waves decays with 1/r.
>>
>> Tidal forces are proportional to 1/r^3 so they decay very fast as you
>> move away from the source.
>> So tidal forces are part of the same phenomenon of space-time warping but
>> not gravitational waves per se.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Fri, Feb 12, 2016 at 2:40 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Spike ... and everybody else.
>>>
>>> I have the following problem. Merging of two distant black holes bends
>>> those mirrors. More or less like the Moon or a plane flying above, also
>>> bends those V or L shape structure. We call it - the tidal force as a
>>> function of time. And this is routinely dismissed as not a gravity wave,
>>>
>>> Now .. in a Newtonian world, a merging of two distant black holes would
>>> still be detectable as a tidal force function developing in time.
>>>
>>> And a big enough tidal force oscillation can kill you as well.
>>>
>>> My wrong prognosis was only, that they will not announce this detection
>>> yet. But they did.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Fri, Feb 12, 2016 at 7:30 AM, Giulio Prisco <giulio at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 9:35 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> > And the critics were correct, the old
>>>> > LIGO wasn't sensitive enough to detect gravitational waves unless you
>>>> were
>>>> > unrealistically lucky and 2 black holes happened to merge very near
>>>> to Earth
>>>>
>>>> I wouldn't call that "lucky." The astronomers (and the rest of
>>>> humanity) would have been killed immediately by a close black hole
>>>> fusion event.
>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>> extropy-chat mailing list
>>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> extropy-chat mailing list
>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>>
>>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>
>
> --
> https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From giulio at gmail.com  Fri Feb 12 18:10:14 2016
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Fri, 12 Feb 2016 19:10:14 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The Cosmos and the Brain - A great week for science
Message-ID: <CAKTCJyf7JkE7oZQz92xR4zfjyARqAEweURh7c0dDdn9KiLooLA@mail.gmail.com>

The Cosmos and the Brain - A great week for science

Yesterday I and thousands of viewers around the world watched live the
LIGO press conference on the first gravitational waves detection from
a black hole fusion event. Two days before, the Small Mammal Brain
Preservation Prize was awarded to the first demonstration that a brain
can be preserved for future mind uploading. What a great week for
science!...

http://turingchurch.com/2016/02/12/the-cosmos-and-the-brain-a-great-week-for-science/


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Feb 12 21:38:03 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 12 Feb 2016 16:38:03 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFQbziG9uPbPD0fzTeTGQ2oi8+Zp10rOxzqoB95gDvjjzw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>
 <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAJPayv08AYD2Tja1Gi9k0Ueb7DNp=pgd+zrb=gRbt_5e3A7f-w@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Feb 12, 2016 at 10:28 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
wrote:

>
>> ?>?
>>  The strain produced by the waves decays with 1/r. Tidal forces are
>> proportional to 1/r^3 so they decay very fast as you move away from the
>> source.
>
>
> ?>?
> It's then either G-wave originated 10^9 ly away, or some tidal effect 10^3
> ly away. Like a neutron star inner collapse to a black hole, for example.
> ? ?
> Those two are indistinguishable for LIGO, I presume
> ?.?
>
>
One way LIGO can distinguish a gravitational wave from other sources of
distortion of the mirrors is that if it's a
? ?
gravitational
? ?
wave then as one leg of the L shaped LIGO
? ?
detector
? ?
shrinks the other must expand
? ?
by the same amount; and if it were caused by tidal forces something would
have to be circling the Earth 250 times a second. And
?nothing can be in orbit around the ?
Earth like that.

? John K Clark?
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From max at maxmore.com  Fri Feb 12 23:40:19 2016
From: max at maxmore.com (Max More)
Date: Fri, 12 Feb 2016 16:40:19 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Alcor Position Statement on Brain Preservation Foundation
	Prize
Message-ID: <CAJX-7wVZmmc_fzBToNC32Y8s5kViU4xk_TiCwT20ghn1Au2kGg@mail.gmail.com>

http://www.alcor.org/blog/alcor-position-statement-on-brain-preservation-foundation-prize/



-- 

Max More, PhD
Strategic Philosopher
Co-editor, *The Transhumanist Reader*
http://www.amazon.com/Transhumanist-Reader-Contemporary-Technology-Philosophy/dp/1118334310/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1372225570&sr=1-1&keywords=the+transhumanist+reader
President & CEO, Alcor Life Extension Foundation
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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Sat Feb 13 11:50:22 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Sat, 13 Feb 2016 12:50:22 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv08AYD2Tja1Gi9k0Ueb7DNp=pgd+zrb=gRbt_5e3A7f-w@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
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Message-ID: <CALMrAFRR_=ikGS2byX0DH6m6wFSNVgg21J-vXscXwv0F9_B-Ng@mail.gmail.com>

Interesting ... Still, what's bothering me is also the super-massive black
hole in our Galaxy, five orders of magnitude closer and about five orders
of magnitude as massive, orbiting by many massive stars ... but no gravity
waves from there.

That was my line of reasoning all along. If we can't gravitationally see
this, how we could see something much smaller, so far away?

I am not saying that it is entirely impossible, I am just hard to be
convinced in such circumstances.



On Fri, Feb 12, 2016 at 10:38 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> On Fri, Feb 12, 2016 at 10:28 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> >
>>> ?>?
>>>  The strain produced by the waves decays with 1/r. Tidal forces are
>>> proportional to 1/r^3 so they decay very fast as you move away from the
>>> source.
>>
>>
>> ?>?
>> It's then either G-wave originated 10^9 ly away, or some tidal effect
>> 10^3 ly away. Like a neutron star inner collapse to a black hole, for
>> example.
>> ? ?
>> Those two are indistinguishable for LIGO, I presume
>> ?.?
>>
>>
> One way LIGO can distinguish a gravitational wave from other sources of
> distortion of the mirrors is that if it's a
> ? ?
> gravitational
> ? ?
> wave then as one leg of the L shaped LIGO
> ? ?
> detector
> ? ?
> shrinks the other must expand
> ? ?
> by the same amount; and if it were caused by tidal forces something would
> have to be circling the Earth 250 times a second. And
> ?nothing can be in orbit around the ?
> Earth like that.
>
> ? John K Clark?
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From anders at aleph.se  Sat Feb 13 13:04:04 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sat, 13 Feb 2016 13:04:04 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFRR_=ikGS2byX0DH6m6wFSNVgg21J-vXscXwv0F9_B-Ng@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <56BF29C4.6060501@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-13 11:50, Tomaz Kristan wrote:
> Interesting ... Still, what's bothering me is also the super-massive 
> black hole in our Galaxy, five orders of magnitude closer and about 
> five orders of magnitude as massive, orbiting by many massive stars 
> ... but no gravity waves from there.
>
> That was my line of reasoning all along. If we can't gravitationally 
> see this, how we could see something much smaller, so far away?
>
> I am not saying that it is entirely impossible, I am just hard to be 
> convinced in such circumstances.

This is where the math really matters. Check the formula for power from 
an orbiting pair (say at 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave ). It scales as r^-5 
and m1^3 m2^3.

Saggitarius A has m1=4e6 sun masses, so for a m2=1 sun mass partner  the 
mass term is 6.4e19. The observed merger was m1=36 and m2=29, so the 
mass term is about 1.1e9. Ten orders of magnitude difference in favor of 
Sag A!

The closest star to Sag A is S2, with perimelasma (I always wanted to 
used that word properly!) of 17 light hours (1.8e13 m). But the distance 
of the merger went all the way down to zero. If we had the merging black 
holes orbiting one AU apart the distance term would be 1.1e15 times the 
Sag A distance term. And at one light second apart (still far away from 
their Schwartzschlild radiuses) it would be 8.6e23 - totally 
overwhelming Sag A.

I have no doubt Sag A can ring loudly when black holes merge with it. 
But this time it was quiet.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Sat Feb 13 13:34:36 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Sat, 13 Feb 2016 14:34:36 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <56BF29C4.6060501@aleph.se>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
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Message-ID: <CALMrAFS0jg5a+nzcz+DCpBLR-gbahyQ2zpcMdGc1_YTPzXEEJg@mail.gmail.com>

Anders,

How many super-massive black holes like our own Sagittarius A we have
inside the 10^9 ly radius sphere around us? From one hundred million to one
billion, there about. Each having mass of about 10 million Suns or 1
million small black holes.

How often do small black holes rain onto those big ones? I don't know, but
at least 10^14 of them have already fallen, apparently. Otherwise we would
not have so many so big supermassives. That is at least 10000 per year for
the entire history after the Big Bang.

10000 per year, but LIGO does not hear that noise? But caught a much
smaller collision?

I find it difficult to believe this.



On Sat, Feb 13, 2016 at 2:04 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2016-02-13 11:50, Tomaz Kristan wrote:
>
> Interesting ... Still, what's bothering me is also the super-massive black
> hole in our Galaxy, five orders of magnitude closer and about five orders
> of magnitude as massive, orbiting by many massive stars ... but no gravity
> waves from there.
>
> That was my line of reasoning all along. If we can't gravitationally see
> this, how we could see something much smaller, so far away?
>
> I am not saying that it is entirely impossible, I am just hard to be
> convinced in such circumstances.
>
>
> This is where the math really matters. Check the formula for power from an
> orbiting pair (say at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave ).
> It scales as r^-5 and m1^3 m2^3.
>
> Saggitarius A has m1=4e6 sun masses, so for a m2=1 sun mass partner  the
> mass term is 6.4e19. The observed merger was m1=36 and m2=29, so the mass
> term is about 1.1e9. Ten orders of magnitude difference in favor of Sag A!
>
> The closest star to Sag A is S2, with perimelasma (I always wanted to used
> that word properly!) of 17 light hours (1.8e13 m). But the distance of
> the merger went all the way down to zero. If we had the merging black holes
> orbiting one AU apart the distance term would be 1.1e15 times the Sag A
> distance term. And at one light second apart (still far away from their
> Schwartzschlild radiuses) it would be 8.6e23 - totally overwhelming Sag A.
>
> I have no doubt Sag A can ring loudly when black holes merge with it. But
> this time it was quiet.
>
>
> --
> Anders Sandberg
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Oxford University
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From spike66 at att.net  Sat Feb 13 14:03:26 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 13 Feb 2016 06:03:26 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFRR_=ikGS2byX0DH6m6wFSNVgg21J-vXscXwv0F9_B-Ng@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
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 <CAL+RtPcneJE4Oz1oULHLrA6EvdFSHrBcXomW_Yju3cp71wBQPQ@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <002c01d16667$4ffb9f10$eff2dd30$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Tomaz Kristan
Sent: Saturday, February 13, 2016 3:50 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!

 

Interesting ... Still, what's bothering me is also the super-massive black hole in our Galaxy, five orders of magnitude closer and about five orders of magnitude as massive, orbiting by many massive stars ... but no gravity waves from there.

 

That was my line of reasoning all along. If we can't gravitationally see this, how we could see something much smaller, so far away?

 

I am not saying that it is entirely impossible, I am just hard to be convinced in such circumstances.

 

 

 

Tomaz, time to calculate!  The argument that the black hole merger would be indistinguishable from noise is a strong one.  The gravitational noise is caused by that local black hole you mentioned and all the others doing similar things.

 

As I understand it, a black hole merger would cause a chirp event, where the frequency of the gravitational pulse gets higher (paradoxically) just as the event horizon expands to take in both black holes.  My intuition suggested to me that signal frequency should get lower, since the emitted signal would redshift due to gravity.  But if you think about it, there is a pulse frequency which gets higher as the orbiting object emit energy and drop closer to each other.

 

On the scales they are talking about, trucks passing by on a nearby freeway might be detectable, but wouldn?t have that increasing frequency signature and wouldn?t show up on both detectors.  

 

It?s a mind-blower that they were able to extract a signal from all of that ordinary background noise.

 

spike

 

 

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From spike66 at att.net  Sat Feb 13 14:13:00 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sat, 13 Feb 2016 06:13:00 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFS0jg5a+nzcz+DCpBLR-gbahyQ2zpcMdGc1_YTPzXEEJg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <003101d16668$a5d9a070$f18ce150$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Tomaz Kristan
Sent: Saturday, February 13, 2016 5:35 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!

 

Anders,

 

>?How many super-massive black holes like our own Sagittarius A we have inside the 10^9 ly radius sphere around us? From one hundred million to one billion, there about. Each having mass of about 10 million Suns or 1 million small black holes.

 

>?How often do small black holes rain onto those big ones? I don't know, but at least 10^14 of them have already fallen, apparently. Otherwise we would not have so many so big supermassives. That is at least 10000 per year for the entire history after the Big Bang.

 

>?10000 per year, but LIGO does not hear that noise? But caught a much smaller collision?

 

>?I find it difficult to believe this? Tomaz

 

 

Next time a black hole does drop into our own Sag A, we will detect it, assuming the detector is still around.  That black hole has already cleaned up the area around it, so having something new fall in requires just exactly the right encounter between two stars farther out.  There is no reason to think this happens very often.

 

We can calculate and estimate it however, or better yet, create a simulation.  We can use that trick I developed for GIMPS to estimate the time between the next similar event.  I am taking good care of my health, hoping to live long enough to see the next one.

 

spike

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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Sat Feb 13 14:45:02 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Sat, 13 Feb 2016 15:45:02 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <003101d16668$a5d9a070$f18ce150$@att.net>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
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 <003101d16668$a5d9a070$f18ce150$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFTf25tzKGWLxo=7i1BS2Z8GL5pZp4nTii1iDBuOkrZFXg@mail.gmail.com>

Spike, my friend, I want you to be around for the next one billion years
and more.

But this is not the point here. We should already hear from other
Sagittariuses as well. One hundred million or even a billion of them, which
are as close or closer than those two black holes we talk about. Those two
with the combined mass of much less than 100 Suns.

While those "Sags" are to a many million times heavier than that. Each. And
should be much noisier when colliding even with a small black hole.

We might wait for our Sagittarius to swallow something big. It should
happen every 1000 years or so. But we have a billion of them around and
there should be a lot of those events every day, every hour.

Where they are? Why LIGO does not detect those?




On Sat, Feb 13, 2016 at 3:13 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *Tomaz Kristan
> *Sent:* Saturday, February 13, 2016 5:35 AM
> *To:* ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
>
>
>
> Anders,
>
>
>
> >?How many super-massive black holes like our own Sagittarius A we have
> inside the 10^9 ly radius sphere around us? From one hundred million to one
> billion, there about. Each having mass of about 10 million Suns or 1
> million small black holes.
>
>
>
> >?How often do small black holes rain onto those big ones? I don't know,
> but at least 10^14 of them have already fallen, apparently. Otherwise we
> would not have so many so big supermassives. That is at least 10000 per
> year for the entire history after the Big Bang.
>
>
>
> >?10000 per year, but LIGO does not hear that noise? But caught a much
> smaller collision?
>
>
>
> >?I find it difficult to believe this? Tomaz
>
>
>
>
>
> Next time a black hole does drop into our own Sag A, we will detect it,
> assuming the detector is still around.  That black hole has already cleaned
> up the area around it, so having something new fall in requires just
> exactly the right encounter between two stars farther out.  There is no
> reason to think this happens very often.
>
>
>
> We can calculate and estimate it however, or better yet, create a
> simulation.  We can use that trick I developed for GIMPS to estimate the
> time between the next similar event.  I am taking good care of my health,
> hoping to live long enough to see the next one.
>
>
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sat Feb 13 18:40:16 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sat, 13 Feb 2016 13:40:16 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFRR_=ikGS2byX0DH6m6wFSNVgg21J-vXscXwv0F9_B-Ng@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
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 <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1=CbGOdkYrQSLTj0D5FOM1zqpezJakQ=boy9dVODBndQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQANttPjdNAFi4KFwtbmakAVozag976gaXkJ19tmw-9VA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPcneJE4Oz1oULHLrA6EvdFSHrBcXomW_Yju3cp71wBQPQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQbziG9uPbPD0fzTeTGQ2oi8+Zp10rOxzqoB95gDvjjzw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv08AYD2Tja1Gi9k0Ueb7DNp=pgd+zrb=gRbt_5e3A7f-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRR_=ikGS2byX0DH6m6wFSNVgg21J-vXscXwv0F9_B-Ng@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv1ESA70Z3WG2JSmjO0b9U_ShM=r33rc3JHJxg1seY38_Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Feb 13, 2016 at 6:50 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
wrote:


> ?> ?
> what's bothering me is also the super-massive black hole in our Galaxy,
> five orders of magnitude closer and about five orders of magnitude as
> massive, orbiting by many massive stars ... but no gravity waves from there.
> ? ?
> That was my line of reasoning all along. If we can't gravitationally see
> this, how we could see something much smaller, so far away?
>

?The only thing that can make gravitational waves is an accelerating mass,
so a black hole that is just sitting there will not produce gravitational
waves no matter how big the hole is. Even a giant star the runs out of fuel
and collapses into a black hole will not produce gravity waves because the
collapse is symmetrical and the waves will cancel out. You need asymmetry
for waves such as happens when 2 orbiting black holes merge. The
supermassive black
hole in the center of our Galaxy will produce no gravity waves, but 2 much
much smaller neutron stars in a close orbit will.

 John K Clark
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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Sat Feb 13 20:53:43 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Sat, 13 Feb 2016 21:53:43 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv1ESA70Z3WG2JSmjO0b9U_ShM=r33rc3JHJxg1seY38_Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1=CbGOdkYrQSLTj0D5FOM1zqpezJakQ=boy9dVODBndQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQANttPjdNAFi4KFwtbmakAVozag976gaXkJ19tmw-9VA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPcneJE4Oz1oULHLrA6EvdFSHrBcXomW_Yju3cp71wBQPQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQbziG9uPbPD0fzTeTGQ2oi8+Zp10rOxzqoB95gDvjjzw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv08AYD2Tja1Gi9k0Ueb7DNp=pgd+zrb=gRbt_5e3A7f-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRR_=ikGS2byX0DH6m6wFSNVgg21J-vXscXwv0F9_B-Ng@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv1ESA70Z3WG2JSmjO0b9U_ShM=r33rc3JHJxg1seY38_Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFRKNdK4Zg=xarFdXHQ6HFEfcNv8OT9+DZBDzCPWCMWqrQ@mail.gmail.com>

> The supermassive black hole in the center of our Galaxy will produce no
gravity waves, but 2 much much smaller neutron stars in a close orbit will.

Agree. Unless something (a small black hole, neutron star etc ..) will fall
in.

Those giant black holes, have swollen millions of black holes during past
10 billion years. Each. And there are billion of them. Many
such occurrences every year, even every day.

We do not detect those. Why?

As someone said about SETI - listening for droplets, where a Niagara falls
thunder should be!



On Sat, Feb 13, 2016 at 7:40 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sat, Feb 13, 2016 at 6:50 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>
>> ?> ?
>> what's bothering me is also the super-massive black hole in our Galaxy,
>> five orders of magnitude closer and about five orders of magnitude as
>> massive, orbiting by many massive stars ... but no gravity waves from there.
>> ? ?
>> That was my line of reasoning all along. If we can't gravitationally see
>> this, how we could see something much smaller, so far away?
>>
>
> ?The only thing that can make gravitational waves is an accelerating mass,
> so a black hole that is just sitting there will not produce gravitational
> waves no matter how big the hole is. Even a giant star the runs out of fuel
> and collapses into a black hole will not produce gravity waves because the
> collapse is symmetrical and the waves will cancel out. You need asymmetry
> for waves such as happens when 2 orbiting black holes merge. The supermassive black
> hole in the center of our Galaxy will produce no gravity waves, but 2 much
> much smaller neutron stars in a close orbit will.
>
>  John K Clark
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Feb 14 00:04:40 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sat, 13 Feb 2016 19:04:40 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFRKNdK4Zg=xarFdXHQ6HFEfcNv8OT9+DZBDzCPWCMWqrQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>
 <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
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 <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQANttPjdNAFi4KFwtbmakAVozag976gaXkJ19tmw-9VA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPcneJE4Oz1oULHLrA6EvdFSHrBcXomW_Yju3cp71wBQPQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQbziG9uPbPD0fzTeTGQ2oi8+Zp10rOxzqoB95gDvjjzw@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CALMrAFRR_=ikGS2byX0DH6m6wFSNVgg21J-vXscXwv0F9_B-Ng@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAJPayv3QZ-Q=8DBzk3Wz0NhCCVif-9C-Y=om7Se1zBkY+sLZDw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Feb 13, 2016 Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com> wrote:

?> ?
> Those giant black holes, have swollen millions of black holes during past
> 10 billion years.
> ?
> Each. And there are billion of them. Many such occurrences every year,
> even every day.
> ?
> We do not detect those.
>

?That is true; determining when the distance between two mirrors 2 and a
half miles apart changes by 1/10,000 the width of a proton is hard.?


> ?> ?
> Why?
>

?Be patient
. To the surprise of everybody LIGO detected the big signal and several
smaller signals during a short engineering run when it was only at a third
of it's design sensitivity. Until very recently the LIGO people were
telling everybody that they didn't expect to see anything
? interesting
until 2017 or 2018, and when they did find something they expected it
?would ?
come from 2 neutron stars  or a neutron
?star?
 and a 8 or 9 mass black hole
?,?
not from 36 and 29 mass black holes merging, but
??
apparently
 ?such things and gravity waves in general are more common than had been
thought.

LIGO is shut down right now so it can be twerked to reach designed
sensitivity but will come back online in late summer; that's about the same
time the European Advanced VIRGO detector starts up and it might be even
more sensitive. When that happens finding a new gravity wave event every
day may not be unrealistic.

 John K Clark     ?
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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Sun Feb 14 07:52:24 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Sun, 14 Feb 2016 08:52:24 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3QZ-Q=8DBzk3Wz0NhCCVif-9C-Y=om7Se1zBkY+sLZDw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1=CbGOdkYrQSLTj0D5FOM1zqpezJakQ=boy9dVODBndQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQANttPjdNAFi4KFwtbmakAVozag976gaXkJ19tmw-9VA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPcneJE4Oz1oULHLrA6EvdFSHrBcXomW_Yju3cp71wBQPQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQbziG9uPbPD0fzTeTGQ2oi8+Zp10rOxzqoB95gDvjjzw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv08AYD2Tja1Gi9k0Ueb7DNp=pgd+zrb=gRbt_5e3A7f-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRR_=ikGS2byX0DH6m6wFSNVgg21J-vXscXwv0F9_B-Ng@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv1ESA70Z3WG2JSmjO0b9U_ShM=r33rc3JHJxg1seY38_Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRKNdK4Zg=xarFdXHQ6HFEfcNv8OT9+DZBDzCPWCMWqrQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3QZ-Q=8DBzk3Wz0NhCCVif-9C-Y=om7Se1zBkY+sLZDw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFRV8h19j19_p5qa-=7Cq7S4=QSjatFHRieyh0kX-K3Yyg@mail.gmail.com>

You may be right, The fact that LIGO is currently down can explain a lot.

But when it will go online again, we will see. If there will not be very
frequent  detections, of a much greater events also, this one was a fluke.
For there is a constant rain of black holes onto those supermassives. Have
to be.

We will see.

On Sun, Feb 14, 2016 at 1:04 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sat, Feb 13, 2016 Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> ?> ?
>> Those giant black holes, have swollen millions of black holes during past
>> 10 billion years.
>> ?
>> Each. And there are billion of them. Many such occurrences every year,
>> even every day.
>> ?
>> We do not detect those.
>>
>
> ?That is true; determining when the distance between two mirrors 2 and a
> half miles apart changes by 1/10,000 the width of a proton is hard.?
>
>
>> ?> ?
>> Why?
>>
>
> ?Be patient
> . To the surprise of everybody LIGO detected the big signal and several
> smaller signals during a short engineering run when it was only at a third
> of it's design sensitivity. Until very recently the LIGO people were
> telling everybody that they didn't expect to see anything
> ? interesting
> until 2017 or 2018, and when they did find something they expected it
> ?would ?
> come from 2 neutron stars  or a neutron
> ?star?
>  and a 8 or 9 mass black hole
> ?,?
> not from 36 and 29 mass black holes merging, but
> ??
> apparently
>  ?such things and gravity waves in general are more common than had been
> thought.
>
> LIGO is shut down right now so it can be twerked to reach designed
> sensitivity but will come back online in late summer; that's about the same
> time the European Advanced VIRGO detector starts up and it might be even
> more sensitive. When that happens finding a new gravity wave event every
> day may not be unrealistic.
>
>  John K Clark     ?
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Sun Feb 14 07:56:18 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Sun, 14 Feb 2016 08:56:18 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFRV8h19j19_p5qa-=7Cq7S4=QSjatFHRieyh0kX-K3Yyg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1=CbGOdkYrQSLTj0D5FOM1zqpezJakQ=boy9dVODBndQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQANttPjdNAFi4KFwtbmakAVozag976gaXkJ19tmw-9VA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPcneJE4Oz1oULHLrA6EvdFSHrBcXomW_Yju3cp71wBQPQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQbziG9uPbPD0fzTeTGQ2oi8+Zp10rOxzqoB95gDvjjzw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv08AYD2Tja1Gi9k0Ueb7DNp=pgd+zrb=gRbt_5e3A7f-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRR_=ikGS2byX0DH6m6wFSNVgg21J-vXscXwv0F9_B-Ng@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv1ESA70Z3WG2JSmjO0b9U_ShM=r33rc3JHJxg1seY38_Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRKNdK4Zg=xarFdXHQ6HFEfcNv8OT9+DZBDzCPWCMWqrQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3QZ-Q=8DBzk3Wz0NhCCVif-9C-Y=om7Se1zBkY+sLZDw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRV8h19j19_p5qa-=7Cq7S4=QSjatFHRieyh0kX-K3Yyg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFT4qXofCoHZyxKgmDX8oBYJ9bNVa75hr5Us0B6B0MhcKA@mail.gmail.com>

By "rain" I mean at least one every second in the observable Universe. Had
to be, for number reasons.

On Sun, Feb 14, 2016 at 8:52 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> You may be right, The fact that LIGO is currently down can explain a lot.
>
> But when it will go online again, we will see. If there will not be very
> frequent  detections, of a much greater events also, this one was a fluke.
> For there is a constant rain of black holes onto those supermassives. Have
> to be.
>
> We will see.
>
> On Sun, Feb 14, 2016 at 1:04 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On Sat, Feb 13, 2016 Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> ?> ?
>>> Those giant black holes, have swollen millions of black holes during
>>> past 10 billion years.
>>> ?
>>> Each. And there are billion of them. Many such occurrences every year,
>>> even every day.
>>> ?
>>> We do not detect those.
>>>
>>
>> ?That is true; determining when the distance between two mirrors 2 and a
>> half miles apart changes by 1/10,000 the width of a proton is hard.?
>>
>>
>>> ?> ?
>>> Why?
>>>
>>
>> ?Be patient
>> . To the surprise of everybody LIGO detected the big signal and several
>> smaller signals during a short engineering run when it was only at a third
>> of it's design sensitivity. Until very recently the LIGO people were
>> telling everybody that they didn't expect to see anything
>> ? interesting
>> until 2017 or 2018, and when they did find something they expected it
>> ?would ?
>> come from 2 neutron stars  or a neutron
>> ?star?
>>  and a 8 or 9 mass black hole
>> ?,?
>> not from 36 and 29 mass black holes merging, but
>> ??
>> apparently
>>  ?such things and gravity waves in general are more common than had been
>> thought.
>>
>> LIGO is shut down right now so it can be twerked to reach designed
>> sensitivity but will come back online in late summer; that's about the same
>> time the European Advanced VIRGO detector starts up and it might be even
>> more sensitive. When that happens finding a new gravity wave event every
>> day may not be unrealistic.
>>
>>  John K Clark     ?
>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>
>
> --
> https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
>



-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Feb 14 16:06:38 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 14 Feb 2016 11:06:38 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFRV8h19j19_p5qa-=7Cq7S4=QSjatFHRieyh0kX-K3Yyg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>
 <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
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Message-ID: <CAJPayv2Xvv0VP9VZf4-0aDcgvcMirFHnC8M5yjCtGYpwwpgq5g@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Feb 14, 2016 at 2:52 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
wrote:

?> ?
> You may be right, The fact that LIGO is currently down can explain a lot.
> But when it will go online again, we will see. If there will not be very
> frequent  detections, of a much greater events also, this one was a fluke.
> For there is a constant rain of black holes onto those supermassives. Have
> to be.
> ?  [...]?
> By "rain" I mean at least one every second in the observable Universe. Had
> to be, for number reasons.
>

?The number of gravity wave events that LIGO will be able to detect depends
on:

1) How big the black holes that merge are.
2) How far away the black holes are.
3) How common the much weaker source of 2 neutron stars merging is.
4) How sensitive LIGO is.

How did you calculate that "
at least one every second
?" figure??

 John K Clark
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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Sun Feb 14 18:56:06 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Sun, 14 Feb 2016 19:56:06 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2Xvv0VP9VZf4-0aDcgvcMirFHnC8M5yjCtGYpwwpgq5g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1=CbGOdkYrQSLTj0D5FOM1zqpezJakQ=boy9dVODBndQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQANttPjdNAFi4KFwtbmakAVozag976gaXkJ19tmw-9VA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPcneJE4Oz1oULHLrA6EvdFSHrBcXomW_Yju3cp71wBQPQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQbziG9uPbPD0fzTeTGQ2oi8+Zp10rOxzqoB95gDvjjzw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv08AYD2Tja1Gi9k0Ueb7DNp=pgd+zrb=gRbt_5e3A7f-w@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAJPayv1ESA70Z3WG2JSmjO0b9U_ShM=r33rc3JHJxg1seY38_Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRKNdK4Zg=xarFdXHQ6HFEfcNv8OT9+DZBDzCPWCMWqrQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3QZ-Q=8DBzk3Wz0NhCCVif-9C-Y=om7Se1zBkY+sLZDw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRV8h19j19_p5qa-=7Cq7S4=QSjatFHRieyh0kX-K3Yyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2Xvv0VP9VZf4-0aDcgvcMirFHnC8M5yjCtGYpwwpgq5g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFRkjo7Bq9cOkUjZVAMu58m2fZ3W2-UphJbXDvYT=kMR9A@mail.gmail.com>

> How did you calculate that "
at least one every second
?" figure??


10^11 galaxies with a supermassive black hole.

An average supermassive has about several 10^6 small black hole mass.

This is about several*10^17 small black holes already collided. Either as
two small black holes, either as a black hole and a (neutron) star, either
as supermassive an a star ...

The number of seconds after the Big Bang is also several*10^17.

Roughly one per second in the past, now it's probably much faster. But
perhaps bigger black holes collide now.

But roughly, we are there about.

OR

>From 10^23 stars in our (observable) Universe and that at least 1 of 10000
stars in our own galaxy has already fallen to Sagittarius ... if this is an
average, then 10^19 stars has already fallen in. And they keep do that.

Roughly my numbers.


On Sun, Feb 14, 2016 at 5:06 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sun, Feb 14, 2016 at 2:52 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> ?> ?
>> You may be right, The fact that LIGO is currently down can explain a lot.
>> But when it will go online again, we will see. If there will not be very
>> frequent  detections, of a much greater events also, this one was a fluke.
>> For there is a constant rain of black holes onto those supermassives. Have
>> to be.
>> ?  [...]?
>> By "rain" I mean at least one every second in the observable Universe.
>> Had to be, for number reasons.
>>
>
> ?The number of gravity wave events that LIGO will be able to detect
> depends on:
>
> 1) How big the black holes that merge are.
> 2) How far away the black holes are.
> 3) How common the much weaker source of 2 neutron stars merging is.
> 4) How sensitive LIGO is.
>
> How did you calculate that "
> at least one every second
> ?" figure??
>
>  John K Clark
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Feb 14 22:48:57 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 14 Feb 2016 17:48:57 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFRkjo7Bq9cOkUjZVAMu58m2fZ3W2-UphJbXDvYT=kMR9A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>
 <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
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 <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQANttPjdNAFi4KFwtbmakAVozag976gaXkJ19tmw-9VA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPcneJE4Oz1oULHLrA6EvdFSHrBcXomW_Yju3cp71wBQPQ@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CAJPayv1ESA70Z3WG2JSmjO0b9U_ShM=r33rc3JHJxg1seY38_Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRKNdK4Zg=xarFdXHQ6HFEfcNv8OT9+DZBDzCPWCMWqrQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3QZ-Q=8DBzk3Wz0NhCCVif-9C-Y=om7Se1zBkY+sLZDw@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAJPayv3NePCyvHgbzv2KVoKS5ysof05hA=+uKzFmUpiZvXx3bA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Feb 14, 2016 at 1:56 PM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> > How did you calculate that "
> at least one every second
> ?" figure??
>
>
> ?> ?
>> 10^11 galaxies with a supermassive black hole.
>
>
?When a supermassive black hole of millions or billions of solar masses
forms and goes through it's ring down phase it produces enormously powerful
gravitational waves but the frequency of the waves is very low, less than a
tenth a cycle a second, but LIGO is most sensitive when the frequency is
several hundred cycles a second. So if the black holes is larger than a few
hundred solar masses LIGO is not going to see it. And even when the source
produces the right frequency it can't see everything in the observable
universe, LIGO won't see it if it's too far away.

In a decade or 2 the space based eLISA observatory could detect
gravitational waves from supermassive black holes, but not LIGO.



> ?> ?
> This is about several*10^17 small black holes already collided.
>

If they've
?
already collided
? then it's too late for any detector to see them.?

? John K Clark?
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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Mon Feb 15 07:25:18 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Mon, 15 Feb 2016 08:25:18 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3NePCyvHgbzv2KVoKS5ysof05hA=+uKzFmUpiZvXx3bA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com> <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
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 <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQANttPjdNAFi4KFwtbmakAVozag976gaXkJ19tmw-9VA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPcneJE4Oz1oULHLrA6EvdFSHrBcXomW_Yju3cp71wBQPQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQbziG9uPbPD0fzTeTGQ2oi8+Zp10rOxzqoB95gDvjjzw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv08AYD2Tja1Gi9k0Ueb7DNp=pgd+zrb=gRbt_5e3A7f-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRR_=ikGS2byX0DH6m6wFSNVgg21J-vXscXwv0F9_B-Ng@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv1ESA70Z3WG2JSmjO0b9U_ShM=r33rc3JHJxg1seY38_Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRKNdK4Zg=xarFdXHQ6HFEfcNv8OT9+DZBDzCPWCMWqrQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3QZ-Q=8DBzk3Wz0NhCCVif-9C-Y=om7Se1zBkY+sLZDw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRV8h19j19_p5qa-=7Cq7S4=QSjatFHRieyh0kX-K3Yyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2Xvv0VP9VZf4-0aDcgvcMirFHnC8M5yjCtGYpwwpgq5g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRkjo7Bq9cOkUjZVAMu58m2fZ3W2-UphJbXDvYT=kMR9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3NePCyvHgbzv2KVoKS5ysof05hA=+uKzFmUpiZvXx3bA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFR9WL9PmuprUXufKws_qVuh97WLR2vF=_j9zOs9QEbdxA@mail.gmail.com>

> If they've
?
already collided
? then it's too late for any detector to see them.?

Yes. But the rate of colliding is at least as big right now. But we fail to
detect them.

Your explanation may be good. But if it isn't, we saw a fluke and there
will no next "Wows". Be patient, as you have suggested, to the end of this
summer.

Stay around, everybody!


On Sun, Feb 14, 2016 at 11:48 PM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sun, Feb 14, 2016 at 1:56 PM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> > How did you calculate that "
>> at least one every second
>> ?" figure??
>>
>>
>> ?> ?
>>> 10^11 galaxies with a supermassive black hole.
>>
>>
> ?When a supermassive black hole of millions or billions of solar masses
> forms and goes through it's ring down phase it produces enormously powerful
> gravitational waves but the frequency of the waves is very low, less than a
> tenth a cycle a second, but LIGO is most sensitive when the frequency is
> several hundred cycles a second. So if the black holes is larger than a few
> hundred solar masses LIGO is not going to see it. And even when the source
> produces the right frequency it can't see everything in the observable
> universe, LIGO won't see it if it's too far away.
>
> In a decade or 2 the space based eLISA observatory could detect
> gravitational waves from supermassive black holes, but not LIGO.
>
>
>
>> ?> ?
>> This is about several*10^17 small black holes already collided.
>>
>
> If they've
> ?
> already collided
> ? then it's too late for any detector to see them.?
>
> ? John K Clark?
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From giulio at gmail.com  Mon Feb 15 15:11:10 2016
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Mon, 15 Feb 2016 16:11:10 +0100
Subject: [ExI] VIDEO | Cryonics for Uploaders - Brain Preservation
 discussion in Second Life, February 14
Message-ID: <CAKTCJye2YvtPi_WEfC5CRzYO4mzM+jpZOy-W_3HZrAGR4du1yQ@mail.gmail.com>

VIDEO | Cryonics for Uploaders - Brain Preservation discussion in
Second Life, February 14

The Turing Church meeting in Second Life on Sunday, February 14,
featured a discussion of the recent Brain Preservation Foundation
announcement: the Small Mammal Brain Preservation Prize has officially
been won. Watch the video below.

Thanks to all the participants, and special thanks to Ken Hayworth and
Max More for leading a honest and intense discussion on not only the
technology of cryonics and ?cryonics for uploaders,? but also the
social and ethical aspects of cryonics. Should we rush to human
cryonics applications of ASC and forthcoming technical advances, or
should we wait until the mainstream scientific community is on board?

http://turingchurch.com/2016/02/15/video-cryonics-for-uploaders-brain-preservation-discussion-in-second-life-february-14/



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Feb 15 17:18:12 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Mon, 15 Feb 2016 12:18:12 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Gravitational Waves Detected By LIGO!
In-Reply-To: <CALMrAFR9WL9PmuprUXufKws_qVuh97WLR2vF=_j9zOs9QEbdxA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJPayv1bnPbYn9ya=TTxcZOj-S0HmTAN0-kE2aGQZhF1shN69w@mail.gmail.com>
 <9C49E0D5-9FDD-4F14-877C-23A26AD77806@gmail.com>
 <56BCC1E4.4040108@aleph.se>
 <00a901d164f4$b1175830$13460890$@att.net>
 <CAL+RtPdc32OsqXyOsNdZwONAn8DpWa+VWsbmfjP4nU2bgoysHQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <012601d16502$96af0ed0$c40d2c70$@att.net>
 <CAJPayv1=CbGOdkYrQSLTj0D5FOM1zqpezJakQ=boy9dVODBndQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKTCJydCrQutBkYwvXYLAw7DoOvK=54hk-TdwNJ7ka4nNnieFQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQANttPjdNAFi4KFwtbmakAVozag976gaXkJ19tmw-9VA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPcneJE4Oz1oULHLrA6EvdFSHrBcXomW_Yju3cp71wBQPQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFQbziG9uPbPD0fzTeTGQ2oi8+Zp10rOxzqoB95gDvjjzw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv08AYD2Tja1Gi9k0Ueb7DNp=pgd+zrb=gRbt_5e3A7f-w@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRR_=ikGS2byX0DH6m6wFSNVgg21J-vXscXwv0F9_B-Ng@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv1ESA70Z3WG2JSmjO0b9U_ShM=r33rc3JHJxg1seY38_Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRKNdK4Zg=xarFdXHQ6HFEfcNv8OT9+DZBDzCPWCMWqrQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3QZ-Q=8DBzk3Wz0NhCCVif-9C-Y=om7Se1zBkY+sLZDw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRV8h19j19_p5qa-=7Cq7S4=QSjatFHRieyh0kX-K3Yyg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv2Xvv0VP9VZf4-0aDcgvcMirFHnC8M5yjCtGYpwwpgq5g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFRkjo7Bq9cOkUjZVAMu58m2fZ3W2-UphJbXDvYT=kMR9A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3NePCyvHgbzv2KVoKS5ysof05hA=+uKzFmUpiZvXx3bA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALMrAFR9WL9PmuprUXufKws_qVuh97WLR2vF=_j9zOs9QEbdxA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2JL5L=0g23uT5csez7rVe1YeN8OSM2jMyKhLxYE8uYdA@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Feb 15, 2016 at 2:25 AM, Tomaz Kristan <protokol2020 at gmail.com>
wrote:

>
>> ?>?
>>  If they've
>> ?
>> already collided
>> ? then it's too late for any detector to see them.?
>>
>
> ?> ?
> Yes. But the rate of colliding is at least as big right now.
>

No, the rate of colliding would be much less now because the universe is
not only expanding it's accelerating,
? ?
so the density of matter in the universe is less now than
? ?
it was then, and that includes dark matter.
? ?
And
? ?
there is another reason
?.

?
? ?A
lthough modern stars have only a trace amount of elements other than
Hydrogen and Helium in them very old stars had none at all,
? ?
and that trace amount makes a big difference.
? ?
Very large stars are less likely to form now than then and even when they
are those trace elements cause them to lose a great deal of their mass due
to solar wind in the course of their evolution. The reason for this is the
trace elements act like dye making the gas more opaque to light, so today
when a cloud of gas starts to collapse a small star is formed but then the
light from it interacts strongly with the opaque gas and that pushes it
away and prevents the star from getting any larger. But a long time ago
there were no trace elements in such a gas cloud so it was
? ?
largely transparent, thus the star could keep on getting bigger. And today
? ?
the bright hot surface of the star that we see is very near the physical
surface
? ?
of the star so gas from it
? ?
can
? ?
easily diffuse
? ?
into space;
? ?
but in old stars
? ?
the gas is more transparent so
? ?
that bright surface is buried much more deeply in the star so the gas is
retained and can not escape. And you need big stars to make black holes.

John K Clark
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From spike66 at att.net  Tue Feb 16 04:38:57 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Mon, 15 Feb 2016 20:38:57 -0800
Subject: [ExI] cut off worried
Message-ID: <bfaj4t9tvx2gy6n8w3xx6umg.1455597537348@email.android.com>


    

Camping in Death valley no Internet no radio email intermittent. ?Hearing wild stories from other campers pls refute oh pls do. ?Scotus justice may have been slain, rush to embalm before knowing cause of death??? ?Say it ain't so. ?Cryonauts have difficult time avoiding autopsy yet special case where everybody needs assurance no funny biz and no parhologist? ?Indeed??? ?No way??? ?Might abandon camping trip return forthwith. ?spike

Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4G LTE smartphone
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From atymes at gmail.com  Tue Feb 16 06:02:29 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 15 Feb 2016 22:02:29 -0800
Subject: [ExI] cut off worried
In-Reply-To: <bfaj4t9tvx2gy6n8w3xx6umg.1455597537348@email.android.com>
References: <bfaj4t9tvx2gy6n8w3xx6umg.1455597537348@email.android.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSNLPEMmkd0wDhKySZFTZ-JgSVAhFAPyb0AQMpABg79WA@mail.gmail.com>

No evidence of foul play according to those (admittedly few) who were in
position to observe.  Apparent oversights/missteps are in fact standard
procedure for how they do deaths in Texas (and if that leaves holes to
cover up foul play, we'd have heard of more cases by now).  Claims of
possible foul play appear to be originating from those inconvenienced that
Scalia will no longer be able to rule, specifically those who assume that
if the government could possibly be the cause for some ill then it must be
the cause.

More importantly: nothing you can do about it.  Abandoning your trip just
to fret about it will only injure yourself (sacrificing whatever benefits
you planned to reap from the trip) for no gain: it will not produce any
more evidence or leads, and probably won't even reassure you.  You know how
this goes: wild theories for the first few days, then facts come out once
those who can investigate have had time to do so.  If you continue and
complete your trip as planned, the truth will be clearer by the time you
return.

On Mon, Feb 15, 2016 at 8:38 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
> Camping in Death valley no Internet no radio email intermittent.  Hearing
> wild stories from other campers pls refute oh pls do.  Scotus justice may
> have been slain, rush to embalm before knowing cause of death???  Say it
> ain't so.  Cryonauts have difficult time avoiding autopsy yet special case
> where everybody needs assurance no funny biz and no parhologist?
> Indeed???  No way???  Might abandon camping trip return forthwith.  spike
>
>
> Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4G LTE smartphone
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From anders at aleph.se  Wed Feb 17 09:28:40 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 17 Feb 2016 09:28:40 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried)
In-Reply-To: <bfaj4t9tvx2gy6n8w3xx6umg.1455597537348@email.android.com>
References: <bfaj4t9tvx2gy6n8w3xx6umg.1455597537348@email.android.com>
Message-ID: <56C43D48.9020106@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-16 04:38, spike wrote:
> Camping in Death valley no Internet no radio email intermittent. 
>  Hearing wild stories from other campers pls refute oh pls do.

The best one I have heard is that it was Leonard Nimoy, ruler of the 
Illuminati (he faked his death, you know) who ordered it. Because of 
evil ObamaCare reasons. That story was made up by a spoof right-wing 
site, but then a lot of people started to run with it (either to prove 
the other side are nuts, or actually supporting a variant of the theory).

More seriously, after reading Tetlock's work, I have reduced my estimate 
of the likelihood of clever political conspiracies. I have no doubt some 
people *try*, but given that policy experts are lousy at predicting 
consequences of events any plan involving steps like "And then X will 
appoint Y, who will implement plan Z, with no trace back to me. 
Excellent!" is very likely to fail. When even superforecasters selected 
for their objective accuracy cannot do reliable predictions very far in 
the future it seems unlikely conspirators are any better. Especially in 
multi-agent situations like the current US election, or situations where 
random events can blow up (like in many parts of the middle east).

A philosopher colleague pointed out that it is a strange world where 
some of the best work in epistemology is being done by the US 
intelligence community (especially IARPA). The really crazy part is that 
they started only a few years ago - before that people generally thought 
they knew what they were doing prediction-wise. I think that 
overconfidence in how good we are at predicting consequences is driving 
both conspiracy theorists (who take comfort in that somebody is running 
things, even though they are evil) and would-be political manipulators 
(who churn the mess with their attempts).

So if you want to run a "conspiracy", focus on actions that have 
predictable effects - physical effects, things going according to the 
normal legal, bureaucratic or traditional routine. Don't rely on outside 
people acting as you want, don't act in domains where outside events can 
overwhelm your influence. Shanteau's theory of expertise gives great 
input to what skills you need to affect things. Information leakage and 
side agendas grows nonlinearly with group size. And so on. It is much 
easier to do a non-conspiracy where you get people with shared interests 
to coordinate, pool resources, and push for changes they want to see 
without all the cloak-and-dagger stuff. Non-conspiracies are also more 
agile in areas where predictability is lesser, but will of course have 
to deal more with opposition. Conspiracies in theory avoid opposition by 
being secret, but in practice they have to deal with it anyway: the 
opposing interests will be acting in unpredictable ways in any case, 
potentially wrecking plans with no idea what they were about.


(I always smile inwardly when I cash checks from Steve Jackson Games at 
my local bank, since the checks have the company's eye-in-the-pyramid 
logo prominently displayed. I am getting paid - tiny amounts - by the 
Illuminati! Fnord.)

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Feb 17 10:15:27 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 17 Feb 2016 10:15:27 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried)
In-Reply-To: <56C43D48.9020106@aleph.se>
References: <bfaj4t9tvx2gy6n8w3xx6umg.1455597537348@email.android.com>
 <56C43D48.9020106@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armii5m=Rp_y0u234QvrZgOm2wi2GTRnebDt4mnVDpFG5Sg@mail.gmail.com>

On 17 February 2016 at 09:28, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
> More seriously, after reading Tetlock's work, I have reduced my estimate of
> the likelihood of clever political conspiracies. I have no doubt some people
> *try*, but given that policy experts are lousy at predicting consequences of
> events any plan involving steps like "And then X will appoint Y, who will
> implement plan Z, with no trace back to me. Excellent!" is very likely to
> fail. When even superforecasters selected for their objective accuracy
> cannot do reliable predictions very far in the future it seems unlikely
> conspirators are any better. Especially in multi-agent situations like the
> current US election, or situations where random events can blow up (like in
> many parts of the middle east).
>
<snip>
>
> So if you want to run a "conspiracy", focus on actions that have predictable
> effects - physical effects, things going according to the normal legal,
> bureaucratic or traditional routine. Don't rely on outside people acting as
> you want, don't act in domains where outside events can overwhelm your
> influence. Shanteau's theory of expertise gives great input to what skills
> you need to affect things. Information leakage and side agendas grows
> nonlinearly with group size. And so on. It is much easier to do a
> non-conspiracy where you get people with shared interests to coordinate,
> pool resources, and push for changes they want to see without all the
> cloak-and-dagger stuff. Non-conspiracies are also more agile in areas where
> predictability is lesser, but will of course have to deal more with
> opposition. Conspiracies in theory avoid opposition by being secret, but in
> practice they have to deal with it anyway: the opposing interests will be
> acting in unpredictable ways in any case, potentially wrecking plans with no
> idea what they were about.
>


How do you make God laugh?
Tell Him your plans.

I have found the best way to run a "conspiracy" is multiple very small actions.
Individually, each action has little effect and matters little if it
fails. If accused of misbehaviour, it can easily be brushed aside as a
mistake or misunderstanding. But the cumulative effect of small
changes can be very significant. So that the end result is achieved
without people realising quite how they ended up in that situation.

People like 'grand plans'. But the big changes going on in society
today are more like the death of a thousand cuts.

BillK


From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Feb 17 16:09:20 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 17 Feb 2016 08:09:20 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried)
In-Reply-To: <56C43D48.9020106@aleph.se>
References: <bfaj4t9tvx2gy6n8w3xx6umg.1455597537348@email.android.com>
 <56C43D48.9020106@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNREmAYQmE-+gWhVrBAy3RGLYLcErrVnSoFKck+bdY5g0Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Feb 17, 2016 1:53 AM, "Anders Sandberg" <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> (I always smile inwardly when I cash checks from Steve Jackson Games at
my local bank, since the checks have the company's eye-in-the-pyramid logo
prominently displayed. I am getting paid - tiny amounts - by the
Illuminati! Fnord.)

Out of curiosity, might I ask what you do for them?
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From spike66 at att.net  Wed Feb 17 16:01:49 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 17 Feb 2016 08:01:49 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried)
Message-ID: <6gxuy416op66unpkvn1t9bvn.1455724909211@email.android.com>


    




Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4G LTE smartphone

-------- Original message --------
From: Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> 
Date: 02/17/2016  1:28 AM  (GMT-08:00) 
To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org 
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried) 


    On 2016-02-16 04:38, spike wrote:

    
    
      
      Camping in Death valley no Internet no radio email
        intermittent. ?Hearing wild stories from other campers pls
        refute oh pls do.? 

      
    
    
...The best one I have heard is that it was Leonard Nimoy, ruler of the
    Illuminati (he faked his death, you know)

Ja the difference is you have access to actual crazies with your internet. ?Down here I am hearing conflicting stories by otherwise sane but information deprived humans. ?This all has me thinking about what happens if some clever ransomware creator manages to take down the information super highway until we pay a hundred billion dollars. ?After three days of this we might pay.
We heard a major Hollywood hospital was attacked by ransom ware while cosmetic surgery was being performed, and they accidentally turned Ms Jenner back into a man.
We need to do some hard thinking about what happens if the Internet crashes hard.

    
...A philosopher colleague pointed out that it is a strange world where
    some of the best work in epistemology is being done by the US
    intelligence community (especially IARPA).?


It surprises me that you would find that strange. ?DarPA is perhaps the leading think tank in this strange world with perhaps the most difficult task, foreseeing every imaginable way the DoD could be attacked.
Anders you can be sure Darpa studies your black swan papers.
spike
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From anders at aleph.se  Wed Feb 17 19:13:23 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 17 Feb 2016 19:13:23 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried)
In-Reply-To: <6gxuy416op66unpkvn1t9bvn.1455724909211@email.android.com>
References: <6gxuy416op66unpkvn1t9bvn.1455724909211@email.android.com>
Message-ID: <56C4C653.7020708@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-17 16:01, spike wrote:
> It surprises me that you would find that strange.  DarPA is perhaps 
> the leading think tank in this strange world with perhaps the most 
> difficult task, foreseeing every imaginable way the DoD could be attacked.
>
> Anders you can be sure Darpa studies your black swan papers.
>

Well, I think the strange part is that up until a few years ago 
everybody assumed they knew what they were doing and nobody even checked 
if it was right, not even in the notoriously suspicious intelligence world.

I hope the various TLAs read our papers. At least NSA and GHCQ are 
forced to, since I likely trigger every alarm they have with my research 
queries. By the way, does anybody have a good long-term database of 
historical assassinations?

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From anders at aleph.se  Wed Feb 17 19:10:30 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 17 Feb 2016 19:10:30 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried)
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNREmAYQmE-+gWhVrBAy3RGLYLcErrVnSoFKck+bdY5g0Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <bfaj4t9tvx2gy6n8w3xx6umg.1455597537348@email.android.com>
 <56C43D48.9020106@aleph.se>
 <CALAdGNREmAYQmE-+gWhVrBAy3RGLYLcErrVnSoFKck+bdY5g0Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56C4C5A6.3020002@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-17 16:09, Adrian Tymes wrote:
>
> On Feb 17, 2016 1:53 AM, "Anders Sandberg" <anders at aleph.se 
> <mailto:anders at aleph.se>> wrote:
> > (I always smile inwardly when I cash checks from Steve Jackson Games 
> at my local bank, since the checks have the company's 
> eye-in-the-pyramid logo prominently displayed. I am getting paid - 
> tiny amounts - by the Illuminati! Fnord.)
>
> Out of curiosity, might I ask what you do for them?
>

I did this roleplaying game module:
http://www.sjgames.com/transhuman/citiesontheedge/

It was fun to be an urbanist for a while. I like cities, they are 
curious creatures.

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From spike66 at att.net  Thu Feb 18 02:35:13 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 17 Feb 2016 18:35:13 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried)
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armii5m=Rp_y0u234QvrZgOm2wi2GTRnebDt4mnVDpFG5Sg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <bfaj4t9tvx2gy6n8w3xx6umg.1455597537348@email.android.com>
 <56C43D48.9020106@aleph.se>
 <CAL_armii5m=Rp_y0u234QvrZgOm2wi2GTRnebDt4mnVDpFG5Sg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <002601d169f5$0160cc40$042264c0$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of BillK

...

>...I have found the best way to run a "conspiracy" is multiple very small
actions...BillK
_______________________________________________


HAH!  Finally, we have PROOF!  There really IS a conspiracy, and BillK
dunnit!  BillK don't EVEN give us the old "I was in England at the time"
innocent act.  You admitted to running not just one conspiracy, but being
experienced enough to learn the best way.

Here's something for you lads.  We usually dismiss anything outlandish as a
crazy conspiracy theory.  It seems reasonable to assume that once in a very
long while, it really is a conspiracy.  Once in a very long while, there is
a really bad event such as the 9/11 attack, both 2001 and 2012, and in those
cases there damn sure was a conspiracy, big ones both times.

How do we deal with these cases where a conspiracy or wrongdoing is very
unlikely but possible?

The Judge Scalia case worries me for two reasons.  The actions of those
present will keep conspiracy theories going for the rest of our lives.
Second: being a cryonics fan, it worries me that this case will cause
lawmakers to require autopsies.

Question medical hipsters please: with only a blood sample, could the medics
determine if a guy had a heart attack or was smothered?  Is there a
difference in anything in the blood?

spike



From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Feb 18 06:00:37 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 17 Feb 2016 22:00:37 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried)
In-Reply-To: <56C4C5A6.3020002@aleph.se>
References: <bfaj4t9tvx2gy6n8w3xx6umg.1455597537348@email.android.com>
 <56C43D48.9020106@aleph.se>
 <CALAdGNREmAYQmE-+gWhVrBAy3RGLYLcErrVnSoFKck+bdY5g0Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <56C4C5A6.3020002@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRLwZD0Bhebn-s9nG6MSZpd6U7WTWAoPXrhRbpSAzX_Qw@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 11:10 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

>
> On 2016-02-17 16:09, Adrian Tymes wrote:
>
> On Feb 17, 2016 1:53 AM, "Anders Sandberg" <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> > (I always smile inwardly when I cash checks from Steve Jackson Games at
> my local bank, since the checks have the company's eye-in-the-pyramid logo
> prominently displayed. I am getting paid - tiny amounts - by the
> Illuminati! Fnord.)
>
> Out of curiosity, might I ask what you do for them?
>
>
> I did this roleplaying game module:
> http://www.sjgames.com/transhuman/citiesontheedge/
>
> It was fun to be an urbanist for a while. I like cities, they are curious
> creatures.
>

They are.  But how did it feel to encode your visions of the future in art,
to help people imagine what it is you think may be coming?  Assuming you
think that setting is remotely plausible.
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From pjmanney at gmail.com  Thu Feb 18 18:05:33 2016
From: pjmanney at gmail.com (PJ Manney)
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2016 10:05:33 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Norwescon and PKD
Message-ID: <CAJrtBE2NUJ+YNO88TfBj08jmj=j+bPgwpPuQRSH2FS1rppVzmw@mail.gmail.com>

I'm not sure if any of you are going to Norwescon, but my novel
(R)EVOLUTION is one of six nominated for a Philip K. Dick Award. Ramez Naam
is also nominated for APEX, as is Brenda Cooper for EDGE OF DARK. All three
are transhumanist novels. All the nominated authors will be there and we'll
be on a bunch of panels. Should be fun!

http://www.philipkdickaward.org/
http://www.norwescon.org/

PJ
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Feb 18 21:06:45 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2016 15:06:45 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Norwescon and PKD
In-Reply-To: <CAJrtBE2NUJ+YNO88TfBj08jmj=j+bPgwpPuQRSH2FS1rppVzmw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJrtBE2NUJ+YNO88TfBj08jmj=j+bPgwpPuQRSH2FS1rppVzmw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZ_Xq6Ku3DmKge-U5xcgw2QPNck2Zk_ump2StOcBCJ2bA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 18, 2016 at 12:05 PM, PJ Manney <pjmanney at gmail.com> wrote:

> I'm not sure if any of you are going to Norwescon, but my novel
> (R)EVOLUTION is one of six nominated for a Philip K. Dick Award. Ramez Naam
> is also nominated for APEX, as is Brenda Cooper for EDGE OF DARK. All three
> are transhumanist novels. All the nominated authors will be there and we'll
> be on a bunch of panels. Should be fun!
>
> http://www.philipkdickaward.org/
> http://www.norwescon.org/
>
> PJ
> ?Read (R)evolution and enjoyed it a lot.  Added your next one to my wish
> list.  Good luck with the award.  bill w?
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From spike66 at att.net  Thu Feb 18 15:35:47 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2016 07:35:47 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried)
Message-ID: <997d4ttx861jc1ir7a79od7a.1455755686143@email.android.com>


    




Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4G LTE smartphone



-------- Original message --------
From: Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> 
Date: 02/17/2016  11:13 AM  (GMT-08:00) 
To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org 
Subject: Re: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried) 

... By the way, does anybody have a good long-term
    database of historical assassinations??

    -- 
Anders 


We should have a way of dealing with those cases where foul play is un likely but possible.  We might estimate perhaps 10 percent chance Scalia was slain, ja?
spike
  
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From pjmanney at gmail.com  Thu Feb 18 22:01:59 2016
From: pjmanney at gmail.com (PJ Manney)
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2016 14:01:59 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Norwescon and PKD
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZ_Xq6Ku3DmKge-U5xcgw2QPNck2Zk_ump2StOcBCJ2bA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAJrtBE2NUJ+YNO88TfBj08jmj=j+bPgwpPuQRSH2FS1rppVzmw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEZ_Xq6Ku3DmKge-U5xcgw2QPNck2Zk_ump2StOcBCJ2bA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJrtBE3111FvK8Sk8X_7auBcyOw9RiZ=xYzY_0GTwrr=pismJQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 18, 2016 at 1:06 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:

>
> ?Read (R)evolution and enjoyed it a lot.  Added your next one to my wish
>> list.  Good luck with the award.  bill w?
>>
>>
>> Thanks so much, Bill!

PJ
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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Feb 18 22:28:15 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2016 22:28:15 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried)
In-Reply-To: <997d4ttx861jc1ir7a79od7a.1455755686143@email.android.com>
References: <997d4ttx861jc1ir7a79od7a.1455755686143@email.android.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjf5ymSKF9gaEsuoSSLue+AtfEPFQvwEOd8Mdw8vgTpLA@mail.gmail.com>

On 18 February 2016 at 15:35, spike  wrote:
> We should have a way of dealing with those cases where foul play is unlikely
> but possible.  We might estimate perhaps 10 percent chance Scalia was
> slain, ja?
>


Unlikely, by the news reports. He was 79 and in poor health. His
doctor says he had heart trouble, high blood pressure and was
considered too weak to undergo surgery for a recent shoulder injury.
(High Court judges keep current health reports secret).
<http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/texas-judge-disclosed-details-about-scalias-health>

BillK


From danust2012 at gmail.com  Thu Feb 18 22:31:54 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2016 14:31:54 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjf5ymSKF9gaEsuoSSLue+AtfEPFQvwEOd8Mdw8vgTpLA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <997d4ttx861jc1ir7a79od7a.1455755686143@email.android.com>
 <CAL_armjf5ymSKF9gaEsuoSSLue+AtfEPFQvwEOd8Mdw8vgTpLA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <78A4F92D-1763-41A6-B4ED-5CA3B5A90C9F@gmail.com>

Please let us know if Scalia's condition changes. (Sorry, couldn't resist that one.;)

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From anders at aleph.se  Thu Feb 18 23:28:42 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2016 23:28:42 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried)
In-Reply-To: <997d4ttx861jc1ir7a79od7a.1455755686143@email.android.com>
References: <997d4ttx861jc1ir7a79od7a.1455755686143@email.android.com>
Message-ID: <56C653AA.9020606@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-18 15:35, spike wrote:
> ... By the way, does anybody have a good long-term database of 
> historical assassinations?
> -- 
> Anders
> We should have a way of dealing with those cases where foul play is un likely but possible.  We might estimate perhaps 10 percent chance Scalia was slain, ja?

Actually, way lower. Think of it like this: the murder rate of the US is 
about 4 per 100,000, or a probability of 0.00004.

There are no doubt some murders that are successfully hidden as natural; 
if we assume for every discovered murder there is a hidden one we are 
likely extremely paranoid, but that brings up the probability to 0.00008.

Now, assassinations are actually fairly rare: most murder is of 
non-prominent persons. Even there, judges are uncommon (in the data in 
Snitch, T. H. (1982). Terrorism and political assassinations: A 
transnational assessment, 1968-80. /The Annals of the American Academy 
of Political and Social Science/, 463(1), 54-68. only 3% of successful 
assassinations involved judges). So thinking a particular judge's death 
is due to foul play without any supporting evidence should lower the 
probability of the statement being true by quite a lot - a very rough 
assassination rate (assassinations/deaths) I estimated using Wikipedia 
statistics is 7.8e-4. A lot of those deaths were murders, so let's be 
charitable and say a factor of 1e-3. That makes a probability of 8e-8.

So, the ultra-paranoid prior for Scalia being assassinated is a 
probability of 8e-8.

Now, if you started to get positive evidence that prior would be 
multiplied by Bayes factors of the form 
P(evidence|assassination)/(P(evidence|assassination)P(assassination) + 
P(evidence|no assassination)P(no assassination), which is roughly, since 
assassinations are rare, P(evidence|assassination)/P(evidence|no 
assassination). For example, lack of autopsy is pretty likely in either 
case, so the Bayes factor is only slightly larger than 1. Seeing ninjas 
disappear from the scene produces a big factor, since they rarely show 
up when people die for non-assassination reasons. Not seeing ninjas 
(because maybe they are invisible like all really good ninjas!) produces 
a Bayes factor of 1: you would expect that in either case.

So, can anybody scrounge up enough Bayes factors to get the prior up to 0.1?

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Feb 18 23:36:03 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2016 17:36:03 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried)
In-Reply-To: <56C653AA.9020606@aleph.se>
References: <997d4ttx861jc1ir7a79od7a.1455755686143@email.android.com>
 <56C653AA.9020606@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbtLFLN4F4oijWvMpr+dCPP=VA+eGdy8MNdA-OUftr91g@mail.gmail.com>

We should have a way of dealing with those cases where foul play is un
likely but possible.
We might estimate perhaps 10 percent chance Scalia was slain, ja?

On the basis of no evidence at all?  This is very far from scientific thinking.

bill w


On Thu, Feb 18, 2016 at 5:28 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2016-02-18 15:35, spike wrote:
>
> ... By the way, does anybody have a good long-term database of historical
> assassinations?
>
> --
> Anders
>
> We should have a way of dealing with those cases where foul play is un likely but possible.  We might estimate perhaps 10 percent chance Scalia was slain, ja?
>
>
> Actually, way lower. Think of it like this: the murder rate of the US is
> about 4 per 100,000, or a probability of 0.00004.
>
> There are no doubt some murders that are successfully hidden as natural;
> if we assume for every discovered murder there is a hidden one we are
> likely extremely paranoid, but that brings up the probability to 0.00008.
>
> Now, assassinations are actually fairly rare: most murder is of
> non-prominent persons. Even there, judges are uncommon (in the data in Snitch,
> T. H. (1982). Terrorism and political assassinations: A transnational
> assessment, 1968-80. *The Annals of the American Academy of Political and
> Social Science*, 463(1), 54-68. only 3% of successful assassinations
> involved judges). So thinking a particular judge's death is due to foul
> play without any supporting evidence should lower the probability of the
> statement being true by quite a lot - a very rough assassination rate
> (assassinations/deaths) I estimated using Wikipedia statistics is 7.8e-4. A
> lot of those deaths were murders, so let's be charitable and say a factor
> of 1e-3. That makes a probability of 8e-8.
>
> So, the ultra-paranoid prior for Scalia being assassinated is a
> probability of 8e-8.
>
> Now, if you started to get positive evidence that prior would be
> multiplied by Bayes factors of the form
> P(evidence|assassination)/(P(evidence|assassination)P(assassination) +
> P(evidence|no assassination)P(no assassination), which is roughly, since
> assassinations are rare, P(evidence|assassination)/P(evidence|no
> assassination). For example, lack of autopsy is pretty likely in either
> case, so the Bayes factor is only slightly larger than 1. Seeing ninjas
> disappear from the scene produces a big factor, since they rarely show up
> when people die for non-assassination reasons. Not seeing ninjas (because
> maybe they are invisible like all really good ninjas!) produces a Bayes
> factor of 1: you would expect that in either case.
>
> So, can anybody scrounge up enough Bayes factors to get the prior up to
> 0.1?
>
> --
> Anders Sandberg
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Oxford University
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Feb 19 00:38:54 2016
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2016 19:38:54 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried)
In-Reply-To: <56C653AA.9020606@aleph.se>
References: <997d4ttx861jc1ir7a79od7a.1455755686143@email.android.com>
 <56C653AA.9020606@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFjmVcWdz+WEPZ6=6ohgPPrDUmb+HPrtsuhHgyzCEe=10g@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 18, 2016 at 6:28 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

>
>
> So, can anybody scrounge up enough Bayes factors to get the prior up to
> 0.1?
>
>  ### The Pillow!

Actually, the pillow is weak evidence in favor of natural death. We may
presume that a conspiracy to assassinate a Supreme Court judge in an
election year would include some pretty ruthless persons, most likely
high-enough in the corridors of power to be above average organizers and
manipulators. Such persons would not leave a pillow actually *lying on the
face of the victim*, as if they wanted to suggest an assassination
occurred. Since a dying person may aimlessly grab objects within reach, the
no-ninja hypothesis is thereby strengthened.

On the other hand, what if the conspiracy *wanted* to make it look like an
assassination? Or maybe the opposite - What if a disgruntled hotel maid
wanted to take the political future of the country in her own hands but
looked into the dead eyes of the victim and just had to cover them up?

Mind boggles. Shadows behind every pillow.

1e-8 sounds like a good guess, give or take a few.

Rafa?
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From anders at aleph.se  Fri Feb 19 01:21:53 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 19 Feb 2016 01:21:53 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Conspiracy epistemology (Was: cut off worried)
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFjmVcWdz+WEPZ6=6ohgPPrDUmb+HPrtsuhHgyzCEe=10g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <997d4ttx861jc1ir7a79od7a.1455755686143@email.android.com>
 <56C653AA.9020606@aleph.se>
 <CAAc1gFjmVcWdz+WEPZ6=6ohgPPrDUmb+HPrtsuhHgyzCEe=10g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56C66E31.5050401@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-19 00:38, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> On the other hand, what if the conspiracy *wanted* to make it look 
> like an assassination? Or maybe the opposite - What if a disgruntled 
> hotel maid wanted to take the political future of the country in her 
> own hands but looked into the dead eyes of the victim and just had to 
> cover them up?
>
> Mind boggles. Shadows behind every pillow.

If you have the brainpower you can of course run Bayes for each 
hypothesis: P(assassination|evidence), P(fake assassination|evidence), 
P(murder looking like assassination|evidence)... All have fairly low 
priors.

As the hypotheses proliferate, the denominator gets lots of terms of the 
form P(E|Hi)P(Hi). It seems a pretty safe bet to argue that the 
hypothesis no foul play has a dominant prior, so again the factor will 
look like P(evidence|hypothesis)/P(evidence|no foul play)P(no foul 
play). Just because we can make the list of hypotheses arbitrarily long 
doesn't mean it steals enough probability from the no foul play prior 
(remember, that one is about 0.99996, while most complex theories are 
the product of 4e-5 with something smaller) to make the Bayes factor large.

Conspiracy theory seems to be based on finding a hypothesis where 
P(evidence|hypothesis) is really high, and then disregard the low prior 
for the hypothesis. Often Bayes factors are then mis-evaluated by noting 
further evidence that fits (the numerator) but ignoring base rates and 
how it fits to no foul play (denominators). When people point out the 
denominators, one invokes a few extra possibilities to make it seem that 
they are smaller.


Meanwhile the muppet ninja sent by Ernie and Bert to help Sotomayor (she 
befriended them when she was on Seasame Street) is quietly acting like a 
normal pillow. P(pillow|ninja)/P(pillow|no foul play)P(no foul play) = 
1. But we know better, since the rubber ducky told us.

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Fri Feb 19 04:53:05 2016
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2016 20:53:05 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Power satellite infrastructure deployment
In-Reply-To: <CAPiwVB630DKrnpdOpirmRct3C9xX0j3YYTDsGXGTDOxUSRndFw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAPiwVB630DKrnpdOpirmRct3C9xX0j3YYTDsGXGTDOxUSRndFw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB6h_K=EPQ7u_q006gyMa0Hq_ojrVjAmzrxyWFkbFpEsBA@mail.gmail.com>

This is rough, and not yet integrated into the business case.

We assume that the Skylons fly every other day and each delivers at
least 15 tons of payload or fuel to a 300 km cargo accumulation orbit.
Because 300 km is relatively low (and high drag), we don?t keep
anything in LEO any longer than it takes to accumulate the cargo.  The
first cargo delivered to LEO is a kit to build the first propulsion
power satellite (PPS).  It?s about 4000 tons plus 1550 tons of
reaction mass spit between LOX/LH2 for the rocket engines and LH2 for
the arcjets.

This takes 370 Skylon flights.

Cargo to build the first PPS we boost to 2000 km using a Hohmann
transfer orbit.  We propose using rockets with performance similar to
SSME.  The reason for chemical rockets and sending it up as a kit is
to avoid a long exposure of a large object to space junk.  We unpack
and assemble the PPS at 2000 km and turn it on.  Using arcjets, the
PPS goes up in a spiral orbit under its own power to 18,000 km.

The second cargo assembly in LEO is the second PPS plus a tug, plus
worker habitat and tools/jigs for the construction base (CB) at 12,000
km.  The first PPS beams powers the tug which moves the combined stack
from LEO to the CB.  The workers (who go up with the cargo) put
together the 2nd PPS and it spirals out using its own power and a set
of arcjets to 18,000 km.  The tug returns at the same time from the CB
to LEO.  Both the first and second PPS probably have a few people as
crew to fix what robots can?t.  (We can afford habitat for a few
people in an object ten times as large as the ISS.)

Starting mass is ? of nominal, 10,500 tons, 700 flights.

On power from one PPS the tug takes about the same 30 days with a half
load as a full load would take with twice the power.

While this is going on, Skylon flights take up the parts for the 2nd
tug plus a full load of power satellite parts plus fuel, 15,000 tons
of parts, plus 4000 tons of reaction mass plus a 2000 ton tug.  This
takes 1400 flights.

Now there are two tugs and two PPSs in space, so the 4th and following
cargo stacks plus fuel mass 19,000 tons or 1267 flights.  Since we can
power two tugs at a time, we need 2533 flights per month, or 84/day.
This would take a vehicle fleet of 168 Skyons if we can fly them every
other day.

There are a number of minor uncertainties.  One of them is salvaging
fuel from the Skylons.  This would somewhat reduce the number of
flights.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This went to the power satellite economics group.  If you want to
reply, please cc it there.

It's the basis of the talk I will be giving in the UK on March 4.

Keith



From spike66 at att.net  Sun Feb 21 19:28:11 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 21 Feb 2016 11:28:11 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bitcoin and ransom:  where does one find pitchforks?
Message-ID: <003b01d16cde$00d825c0$02887140$@att.net>

Bob quoted:
.
>.Nor did I get to tell them the "good news" about how easily the government
can, using a fiat currency and total command of the whole banking system,
generate a rising stock market, debt market, housing market and boost
consumer spending -- an economic miracle of Biblical proportions! -- anytime
it wants to. 
Anytime. It. Wants. To.
Of course, if the government tried such monetary stupidity on such a scale,
prices of everything would go up, including the prices of food, shelter and
energy. Then, for the resultant mobs of hungry, wet and/or cold people, it
would be time for flaming torches and pitchforks, riots in the streets,
starving hordes of angry peasants storming government buildings,
revenge-of-the-sheep kind of thing. end quote



This has occurred to many of us.  No one foresaw interest rates would drop
to practically nothing and stay there, de-incentivizing the masses from
having savings accounts.  Think on the implications of that for a moment.
The US government debt has grown to such proportions that the Federal
Reserve cannot raise interest rates or even allow them to rise by natural
causes, not now, not later, for world's biggest debtor would be unable to
pay the interest on its own debt, never mind continuing to borrow, upon
which it has become utterly dependent for just ordinary operations.

This all leads to an essential question.  If circumstances arise to spawn
the revenge-of-the-sheep uprising described above, how could it be done?
Everyone knows that angry mobs (as depicted in all the old-time movies) all
have necessary and well-known common factors: torches and pitchforks.  It
has been years since I have even seen a pitchfork.  They aren't available at
the local hardware store, for the locals would have no idea what they are
for, other than the obvious: demonstrating the anger and disapproval of a
rioting mob.  A devastating shortage arises at the critical moment.

As for torches, I have lived over half a century and have never seen one,
other than the old movies, such as that scene where the town's people came
to destroy Dr. Frankenstein's lab.  I suppose we could make do with
flashlights, but you know, the wimpy practicality of that solution really
doesn't have the emotional punch, the whole style and dashing macho boldness
of an honest-to-Hollywood authenticity of a flaming torch.  I want to know
how the heck they made those things back in the old days.  I want a torch,
just in case.  I want a pitchfork too.

So. Modern economic emergency brought about by something as mundane as a
ransomware virus locking up the local banking system, angry mobs of sheeple,
with no torches and no pitchforks, with nowhere in particular to go, for the
local branch doesn't have a vault full of currency anyway.  It has a stack
of twenties in the ATM, if they want to mob that device for some odd and
pointless reason.  Even that wouldn't have even the impact of that scene in
Jimmy Stewart's "It's a Wonderful Life" when the locals did a bank run.  Our
money is now in the form of microscopic magnetic domains spinning on discs
somewhere in a cloud.  Do you even know what that means?  Neither do I.  

The little bit of paper currency we now see is almost an oddity, is it not?
Don't you feel the need to wash your hands after just touching the stuff?
Who knows who has handled that currency or where it has been?  We are told
by our political leaders that most of "the wealth" is in the possession of
the very few who have money up the wazoo.  Think about it.  The mind
boggles.

After seeing what happens when hackers can lock up a hospital, and the
resulting chaos, we need to think long and hard about the fragility of
modern society, completely dependent as we are, on the technology we have
developed.

A parting shot, perhaps overlooked by some please.  Note that the hospital
in question paid ransom, judging it far cheaper than the alternative and in
desperate need of their computer systems, without which a modern hospital
cannot operate.  The bad guys were paid off in bitcoin, untraceable
email-able money.  They got away with it.  This shows that now kidnappers
are back in business, for there is now a practical way for them to deliver a
demand anonymously and to collect the ransom.  Any item that can be stolen
which is a hundred or a thousand times more valuable to the original owner
than on any resale market (grandma's ashes for instance, or your hard-copy
photo albums) is now subject to theft and ransom, for there is a practical
way for the thieves (or kidnappers) to demand and receive payment
anonymously.

spike





From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Feb 21 20:19:52 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 21 Feb 2016 20:19:52 +0000
Subject: [ExI] bitcoin and ransom: where does one find pitchforks?
In-Reply-To: <003b01d16cde$00d825c0$02887140$@att.net>
References: <003b01d16cde$00d825c0$02887140$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armj+VSs-H553=s_XUiLfbSpu386MR27kczMEkOpWVXWKXA@mail.gmail.com>

On 21 February 2016 at 19:28, spike  wrote:
> This has occurred to many of us.  No one foresaw interest rates would drop
> to practically nothing and stay there, de-incentivizing the masses from
> having savings accounts.
<big snip>


I know that this is the popular understanding, but I'm having some doubts.
The masses don't have much savings because wages are too low in the
jobs that are available.

Another point is that the large baby boomer generation are reaching
retirement age. Those with little retirement savings are forced to
keep working. But those living off the interest of their savings face
a reduced income. I think this leads to a counter-intuitive result. If
your savings were producing 3% interest income and the interest rate
drops to 1% your income is reduced by two-thirds. This means that you
have to treble your savings to regain your original income. Not easy,
of course! But I think that (some at least) pensioners are desperately
increasing their savings to try and regain income. So there is some
incentive to actually *increase* their savings.

Total Savings Deposits at all Depository Institutions
<https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WSAVNS>


BillK


From stathisp at gmail.com  Sun Feb 21 22:13:56 2016
From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou)
Date: Mon, 22 Feb 2016 09:13:56 +1100
Subject: [ExI] bitcoin and ransom: where does one find pitchforks?
In-Reply-To: <003b01d16cde$00d825c0$02887140$@att.net>
References: <003b01d16cde$00d825c0$02887140$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAH=2ypWC_UjcErbnoHr5Wh9MHGHDQ3UPFnut1C8_2ROHZ8Qd9Q@mail.gmail.com>

You must enable images to read this secure email. Use Criptext
<http://www.criptext.com/?utm_source=Gmail-Preview&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Gmail-Preview>
to unsend emails at anytime.
[image: Please click Display Images to read your message]
Link 1: mailto:spike66 at att.net
Link 2: mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
Link 3: http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
Link 4:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/540151/bitcoins-dark-side-could-get-darker/

ikx404e95xm91j9gvnvfs9k9
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From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Feb 23 20:01:47 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 23 Feb 2016 20:01:47 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Death Valley
Message-ID: <CAL_armhbN=TVVJnaSc2+EBZW=ONuPyfG3SHsV3-CW5SOF4SVBQ@mail.gmail.com>

I wondered why Spike was camping in Death Valley???  :)
I thought it was all desert and bleached bones.......

<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/science/death-valley-is-experiencing-a-colorful-superbloom.html>


BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Tue Feb 23 23:48:23 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 23 Feb 2016 15:48:23 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Death Valley
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhbN=TVVJnaSc2+EBZW=ONuPyfG3SHsV3-CW5SOF4SVBQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhbN=TVVJnaSc2+EBZW=ONuPyfG3SHsV3-CW5SOF4SVBQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <006301d16e94$af6f7ef0$0e4e7cd0$@att.net>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of BillK
Sent: Tuesday, February 23, 2016 12:02 PM
To: Extropy Chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: [ExI] Death Valley

I wondered why Spike was camping in Death Valley???  :) I thought it was all
desert and bleached bones.......

<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/science/death-valley-is-experiencing-a-co
lorful-superbloom.html>


BillK
_______________________________________________



Hi BillK, it is that way most of the time.  Once in a long while, conditions
are just right for what is happening now.  Here's a wild coincidence for
you.  I just happened to be passing thru Death Valley in March of 2005 on
the way to somewhere else.  It was a motorcycle trip where I went over
Carson and down 395 heading for Phoenix, decided to pass on thru while I was
that close.  I didn't even know at the time that it was super blooming, just
happened to catch it after being away for a long time.

Last fall my bride suggested going down there camping in the spring, and I
agreed having not been there in a decade.  She made the campground
reservations in about September, which were already filling up, before any
of the unusual conditions had happened.  Then... odd rainfall year, which in
Death Valley means you can measure some rainfall.  Go down there, flowers
all over, and nothing to compete with them.

I saw things this time I had never seen before, for when there is a rare
super bloom, a lot of unusual fauna (somehow) shows up with it, but they are
weird things.  The buggage this time was astonishing.  I saw beasts there I
hadn't seen before, beetles and such.  I don't know my beetles, especially
the really tiny ones.  Oh for a thousand lifetimes to learn them all.

spike





From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Feb 24 00:27:28 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 00:27:28 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Death Valley
In-Reply-To: <006301d16e94$af6f7ef0$0e4e7cd0$@att.net>
References: <CAL_armhbN=TVVJnaSc2+EBZW=ONuPyfG3SHsV3-CW5SOF4SVBQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <006301d16e94$af6f7ef0$0e4e7cd0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhaJWCut6hhA9O=7YoiroW-SXnaLLXfd4SRQNbEB0DHbw@mail.gmail.com>

On 23 February 2016 at 23:48, spike  wrote:
> Hi BillK, it is that way most of the time.  Once in a long while, conditions
> are just right for what is happening now.  Here's a wild coincidence for
> you.  I just happened to be passing thru Death Valley in March of 2005 on
> the way to somewhere else.  It was a motorcycle trip where I went over
> Carson and down 395 heading for Phoenix, decided to pass on thru while I was
> that close.  I didn't even know at the time that it was super blooming, just
> happened to catch it after being away for a long time.
>
<snip>

I've just found a 3 minute video of this year's bloom.
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJbcWFTBn08>

It reminds me of a spring holiday in Wales where the cliff sides by
the sea were covered in brightly coloured wild flowers. (Not unusual -
it happens every year. But I only saw it once!). :)

BillK


From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Feb 24 00:45:59 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 00:45:59 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Next Generation of Boston Dynamics' ATLAS Robot
Message-ID: <CAL_armhZE=UHZVL6RYfHpE_xXs8B0YAfEMi0EEMrRJ-fP7HHuQ@mail.gmail.com>

Boston Dynamics has just posted an incredible video showcasing a
massively upgraded version of the ATLAS robot that they initially
developed for the DARPA Robotics Challenge. While BD calls this the
?next generation? of ATLAS, it looks like such an enormous
technological leap forward that it?s more like a completely different
species.

<http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/humanoids/next-generation-of-boston-dynamics-atlas-robot>

A new version of Atlas, designed to operate outdoors and inside
buildings. It is electrically powered and hydraulically actuated. It
uses sensors in its body and legs to balance and LIDAR and stereo
sensors in its head to avoid obstacles, assess the terrain and help
with navigation.
--------------------


The video is 2mins 40secs long. In the final section a man teases the
robot by moving the box it is trying to pick up. It is so human-like
that I half-expected it to retaliate and teach the man a lesson!


BillK



From spike66 at att.net  Wed Feb 24 00:37:05 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Tue, 23 Feb 2016 16:37:05 -0800
Subject: [ExI] bees again, was:  RE:  Death Valley
Message-ID: <007201d16e9b$7d64cf80$782e6e80$@att.net>


>... On Behalf Of spike

>...  I don't know my beetles, especially the really tiny ones...spike
_______________________________________________


You I watch these kinds of things.  I have had similar (comparable)
conditions for the last 20 years.  This has been the lightest bee year ever,
in all those two decades.  Coming back from Death Valley this past weekend,
we drove up through the Central Valley, where a prole drives for hours with
fruit and nut orchards on either side of the road.  These were in full
blossom.  I stopped and walked over to inspect the bee hives.  They were
clearly not healthy.  There were a few bees flying in and out, but it wasn't
anything like what it should be this time of year.

At home here, I see trees with one to four bees on it.  This time last year
the collective sound of bee wings was a steady roar, with hundreds of bees
working that tree.

I don't know what to think.  The ornamental cherries have already peaked and
dropped their petals, but the bees are missing.  I am going nuts trying to
figure out what is going on.  The fruit and nut crops might be severely
under-pollinated this year.  This is the modern Silent Spring.

Suggestions please?

spike



From ddraig at gmail.com  Wed Feb 24 01:01:22 2016
From: ddraig at gmail.com (ddraig)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 12:01:22 +1100
Subject: [ExI] Next Generation of Boston Dynamics' ATLAS Robot
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhZE=UHZVL6RYfHpE_xXs8B0YAfEMi0EEMrRJ-fP7HHuQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhZE=UHZVL6RYfHpE_xXs8B0YAfEMi0EEMrRJ-fP7HHuQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAGfkSy0WT1=Hn-KntbhXZfZZ3kPC06AfudwCTPbPnXFTEDfuiQ@mail.gmail.com>

website down, here's the latest video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVlhMGQgDkY

On 24 February 2016 at 11:45, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> Boston Dynamics has just posted an incredible video showcasing a
> massively upgraded version of the ATLAS robot that they initially
> developed for the DARPA Robotics Challenge. While BD calls this the
> ?next generation? of ATLAS, it looks like such an enormous
> technological leap forward that it?s more like a completely different
> species.
>
> <
> http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/humanoids/next-generation-of-boston-dynamics-atlas-robot
> >
>
> A new version of Atlas, designed to operate outdoors and inside
> buildings. It is electrically powered and hydraulically actuated. It
> uses sensors in its body and legs to balance and LIDAR and stereo
> sensors in its head to avoid obstacles, assess the terrain and help
> with navigation.
> --------------------
>
>
> The video is 2mins 40secs long. In the final section a man teases the
> robot by moving the box it is trying to pick up. It is so human-like
> that I half-expected it to retaliate and teach the man a lesson!
>
>
> BillK
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
  ddraig at pobox.com irc.bluesphereweb.com #dna
         ...r.e.t.u.r.n....t.o....t.h.e....s.o.u.r.c.e...
        http://tinyurl.com/he-is-right-you-know-jpg
our aim is wakefulness,  our enemy is dreamless sleep
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From cryptaxe at gmail.com  Wed Feb 24 01:11:40 2016
From: cryptaxe at gmail.com (CryptAxe)
Date: Tue, 23 Feb 2016 17:11:40 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Next Generation of Boston Dynamics' ATLAS Robot
In-Reply-To: <CAGfkSy0WT1=Hn-KntbhXZfZZ3kPC06AfudwCTPbPnXFTEDfuiQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhZE=UHZVL6RYfHpE_xXs8B0YAfEMi0EEMrRJ-fP7HHuQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAGfkSy0WT1=Hn-KntbhXZfZZ3kPC06AfudwCTPbPnXFTEDfuiQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAF5CFkgCop8WSra5e=3Yehstfm4qap63dAar9O-H3oLkYG=zSw@mail.gmail.com>

I was hoping it would walk up those stairs! Thanks for sharing the video.
Watching it walk out the door at the end certainly humanized it for a
second.
On Feb 23, 2016 5:03 PM, "ddraig" <ddraig at gmail.com> wrote:

> website down, here's the latest video:
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVlhMGQgDkY
>
> On 24 February 2016 at 11:45, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Boston Dynamics has just posted an incredible video showcasing a
>> massively upgraded version of the ATLAS robot that they initially
>> developed for the DARPA Robotics Challenge. While BD calls this the
>> ?next generation? of ATLAS, it looks like such an enormous
>> technological leap forward that it?s more like a completely different
>> species.
>>
>> <
>> http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/humanoids/next-generation-of-boston-dynamics-atlas-robot
>> >
>>
>> A new version of Atlas, designed to operate outdoors and inside
>> buildings. It is electrically powered and hydraulically actuated. It
>> uses sensors in its body and legs to balance and LIDAR and stereo
>> sensors in its head to avoid obstacles, assess the terrain and help
>> with navigation.
>> --------------------
>>
>>
>> The video is 2mins 40secs long. In the final section a man teases the
>> robot by moving the box it is trying to pick up. It is so human-like
>> that I half-expected it to retaliate and teach the man a lesson!
>>
>>
>> BillK
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>
>
>
> --
>   ddraig at pobox.com irc.bluesphereweb.com #dna
>          ...r.e.t.u.r.n....t.o....t.h.e....s.o.u.r.c.e...
>         http://tinyurl.com/he-is-right-you-know-jpg
> our aim is wakefulness,  our enemy is dreamless sleep
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Wed Feb 24 14:04:31 2016
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 08:04:31 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Next Generation of Boston Dynamics' ATLAS Robot
In-Reply-To: <CAGfkSy0WT1=Hn-KntbhXZfZZ3kPC06AfudwCTPbPnXFTEDfuiQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhZE=UHZVL6RYfHpE_xXs8B0YAfEMi0EEMrRJ-fP7HHuQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAGfkSy0WT1=Hn-KntbhXZfZZ3kPC06AfudwCTPbPnXFTEDfuiQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPfdcDhUh99WNh=qSq8WoLHQkZYCLR=zmVvcG9Kb_6eWGg@mail.gmail.com>

Hey, ddraig, noticed your quote.... wakefulness alternated with dreamless
sleep is actually a great thing (you could not learn anything without it).
Dreamless sleep (slow wave sleep) is my area of research in neuroscience,
not just a pet peeve, ; )

Giovanni


On Tue, Feb 23, 2016 at 8:01 PM, ddraig <ddraig at gmail.com> wrote:

> website down, here's the latest video:
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVlhMGQgDkY
>
> On 24 February 2016 at 11:45, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Boston Dynamics has just posted an incredible video showcasing a
>> massively upgraded version of the ATLAS robot that they initially
>> developed for the DARPA Robotics Challenge. While BD calls this the
>> ?next generation? of ATLAS, it looks like such an enormous
>> technological leap forward that it?s more like a completely different
>> species.
>>
>> <
>> http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/humanoids/next-generation-of-boston-dynamics-atlas-robot
>> >
>>
>> A new version of Atlas, designed to operate outdoors and inside
>> buildings. It is electrically powered and hydraulically actuated. It
>> uses sensors in its body and legs to balance and LIDAR and stereo
>> sensors in its head to avoid obstacles, assess the terrain and help
>> with navigation.
>> --------------------
>>
>>
>> The video is 2mins 40secs long. In the final section a man teases the
>> robot by moving the box it is trying to pick up. It is so human-like
>> that I half-expected it to retaliate and teach the man a lesson!
>>
>>
>> BillK
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>
>
>
> --
>   ddraig at pobox.com irc.bluesphereweb.com #dna
>          ...r.e.t.u.r.n....t.o....t.h.e....s.o.u.r.c.e...
>         http://tinyurl.com/he-is-right-you-know-jpg
> our aim is wakefulness,  our enemy is dreamless sleep
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Feb 24 14:46:23 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 14:46:23 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Next Generation of Boston Dynamics' ATLAS Robot
In-Reply-To: <CAL+RtPfdcDhUh99WNh=qSq8WoLHQkZYCLR=zmVvcG9Kb_6eWGg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhZE=UHZVL6RYfHpE_xXs8B0YAfEMi0EEMrRJ-fP7HHuQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAGfkSy0WT1=Hn-KntbhXZfZZ3kPC06AfudwCTPbPnXFTEDfuiQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPfdcDhUh99WNh=qSq8WoLHQkZYCLR=zmVvcG9Kb_6eWGg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhQYZdMhR9WbuXjj+z18bd4ph94AWJfkCmoK-reLsjAOg@mail.gmail.com>

On 24 February 2016 at 14:04, Giovanni Santostasi wrote:
> Hey, ddraig, noticed your quote...
> wakefulness alternated with dreamless sleep is actually a great thing
> (you could not learn anything without it).
> Dreamless sleep (slow wave sleep) is my area of research in neuroscience, not just a pet peeve, ; )
>

"our aim is wakefulness, our enemy is dreamless sleep" is not meant to
be scientific.  :)
The saying comes from an occult group.
It refers to being in a state of awareness and not sleepwalking through life.

(My translation! :)  ddraig may have a different view).

BillK


From ddraig at gmail.com  Wed Feb 24 15:27:10 2016
From: ddraig at gmail.com (ddraig)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 02:27:10 +1100
Subject: [ExI] Next Generation of Boston Dynamics' ATLAS Robot
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhQYZdMhR9WbuXjj+z18bd4ph94AWJfkCmoK-reLsjAOg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armhZE=UHZVL6RYfHpE_xXs8B0YAfEMi0EEMrRJ-fP7HHuQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAGfkSy0WT1=Hn-KntbhXZfZZ3kPC06AfudwCTPbPnXFTEDfuiQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL+RtPfdcDhUh99WNh=qSq8WoLHQkZYCLR=zmVvcG9Kb_6eWGg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhQYZdMhR9WbuXjj+z18bd4ph94AWJfkCmoK-reLsjAOg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAGfkSy3pi4dx-vdjiF84Pn=mYaduGDZGr+h-yERNZSL1ZzwcUA@mail.gmail.com>

On 25 February 2016 at 01:46, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On 24 February 2016 at 14:04, Giovanni Santostasi wrote:
> > Hey, ddraig, noticed your quote...
> > wakefulness alternated with dreamless sleep is actually a great thing
> > (you could not learn anything without it).
> > Dreamless sleep (slow wave sleep) is my area of research in
> neuroscience, not just a pet peeve, ; )
> >
>
> "our aim is wakefulness, our enemy is dreamless sleep" is not meant to
> be scientific.  :)
> The saying comes from an occult group.
> It refers to being in a state of awareness and not sleepwalking through
> life.
>
> (My translation! :)  ddraig may have a different view).
>


nope, nope, 100% a TOPY quote.  I just liked the idea - that the ideal of
life is to be Awake, and Present, and to not just do things out of habit
and social conditioning, but because you really want to do whatever you're
doing.  It seems to me that the vast majority of people just drift, when,
if you think about it, this is something that we most certainly have not
evolved to have as our default state.  It probably descends from Gurdjieff,
but I actually have zero clue as to where TOPY got it from.


It's been in my sigfile since 1993 or so.  About as long as I've been on
this list, come to think of it.

Looking at it - Return To The Source is also a TOPY quote (from the song
Exit 23)

nice bit of trainspotting there, Bill  :-)
-- 
  ddraig at pobox.com irc.bluesphereweb.com #dna
         ...r.e.t.u.r.n....t.o....t.h.e....s.o.u.r.c.e...
        http://tinyurl.com/he-is-right-you-know-jpg
our aim is wakefulness,  our enemy is dreamless sleep
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From spike66 at att.net  Wed Feb 24 17:43:20 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 09:43:20 -0800
Subject: [ExI] innocent, i tells ya
Message-ID: <013801d16f2a$dab7e750$9027b5f0$@att.net>

 

I have been falsely accused!  I didn't do this!

 

 



 

I was camping in Death Valley when it happened, lotsa people saw me there, I
don't even own a red jacket, I never raised anyone's fear or question,
that's my story and I'm sticking with it.

 

spike

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From atymes at gmail.com  Wed Feb 24 19:10:26 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 11:10:26 -0800
Subject: [ExI] innocent, i tells ya
In-Reply-To: <013801d16f2a$dab7e750$9027b5f0$@att.net>
References: <013801d16f2a$dab7e750$9027b5f0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNTK2y+9Db0C_xqkrXoAobkX8cEzXtbPYBqZp1AZ8_M4fw@mail.gmail.com>

Perhaps they're talking about slashings of Spike in NYC.  So you're
innocent of being the victim? ;)
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From spike66 at att.net  Wed Feb 24 19:25:36 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 11:25:36 -0800
Subject: [ExI] innocent, i tells ya
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTK2y+9Db0C_xqkrXoAobkX8cEzXtbPYBqZp1AZ8_M4fw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <013801d16f2a$dab7e750$9027b5f0$@att.net>
 <CALAdGNTK2y+9Db0C_xqkrXoAobkX8cEzXtbPYBqZp1AZ8_M4fw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <002f01d16f39$243de470$6cb9ad50$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes
Subject: Re: [ExI] innocent, i tells ya

 

Perhaps they're talking about slashings of Spike in NYC.  So you're innocent of being the victim? ;)

 

 

{8^D

Tell ya one thing, I ain?t going to NYC until they catch this sleazebag.  He?s out to get me for sure.

spike

 

 

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From anders at aleph.se  Wed Feb 24 23:01:01 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 23:01:01 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Death Valley
In-Reply-To: <006301d16e94$af6f7ef0$0e4e7cd0$@att.net>
References: <CAL_armhbN=TVVJnaSc2+EBZW=ONuPyfG3SHsV3-CW5SOF4SVBQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <006301d16e94$af6f7ef0$0e4e7cd0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <56CE362D.2040801@aleph.se>

Looks awesome. Someday I hope to catch the sight of it.

Over in Old Blighty we had a bit of spring - spring flowers, even 
daffodils and magnolia buds. But now it is back to the scheduled rain 
and cold, with irregular sunshine to lure people out for a bit of extra 
rain. I blame the positive NAO index this winter for all of this, rather 
than El Nino. Positive = interesting weather, negative = boring weather.

Next week I am headed for Lule?, which sports a mild -13 C spring 
weather. Up there the winter cold depends on whether the Central Asian 
highs blow Siberian air in that direction, or the Atlantic wins.

It looks like we almost have spring on the northern hemisphere, at least 
when checking the jetstreams:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-6.18,40.44,340/loc=-1.854,52.318

The global weather is an awesome dynamical system.


On 2016-02-23 23:48, spike wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
> Of BillK
> Sent: Tuesday, February 23, 2016 12:02 PM
> To: Extropy Chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Subject: [ExI] Death Valley
>
> I wondered why Spike was camping in Death Valley???  :) I thought it was all
> desert and bleached bones.......
>
> <http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/science/death-valley-is-experiencing-a-co
> lorful-superbloom.html>
>
>
> BillK
> _______________________________________________
>
>
>
> Hi BillK, it is that way most of the time.  Once in a long while, conditions
> are just right for what is happening now.  Here's a wild coincidence for
> you.  I just happened to be passing thru Death Valley in March of 2005 on
> the way to somewhere else.  It was a motorcycle trip where I went over
> Carson and down 395 heading for Phoenix, decided to pass on thru while I was
> that close.  I didn't even know at the time that it was super blooming, just
> happened to catch it after being away for a long time.
>
> Last fall my bride suggested going down there camping in the spring, and I
> agreed having not been there in a decade.  She made the campground
> reservations in about September, which were already filling up, before any
> of the unusual conditions had happened.  Then... odd rainfall year, which in
> Death Valley means you can measure some rainfall.  Go down there, flowers
> all over, and nothing to compete with them.
>
> I saw things this time I had never seen before, for when there is a rare
> super bloom, a lot of unusual fauna (somehow) shows up with it, but they are
> weird things.  The buggage this time was astonishing.  I saw beasts there I
> hadn't seen before, beetles and such.  I don't know my beetles, especially
> the really tiny ones.  Oh for a thousand lifetimes to learn them all.
>
> spike
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Feb 25 01:34:58 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 19:34:58 -0600
Subject: [ExI] disgusted with Windows
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZD2FDn4GXNoyhEAZM+CbfrY_8aeYz7dP1v9aHRHsHSTg@mail.gmail.com>

OK, so I was a fool and downloaded Windows 10, which was described as more
of a bunch of fixes than a new operating system.  Result:  many blue
screens of death.

Computer shop said that the log, or whatever it is, showed a Norton driver
to be the cause, and so I had them uninstall it.  Norton claims that
Windows 10 and Norton 360 are compatible.  Horsefeathers.
They are, however, discontinuing 360 and offering a new version.

I am so disgusted that I may switch to a Mac.  But that would be a big
change.  I am 74 and have never been a patient person, so I am asking just
how much trouble it is to switch to Linux.

Any of you done that?  Of course if you have been using Linux for a long
time then you might not be the best person to ask - or you may be.  Advice
please!

Switch to Mac, switch to Linux, stay with Windows and the new Norton

bill w
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From cryptaxe at gmail.com  Thu Feb 25 01:41:45 2016
From: cryptaxe at gmail.com (CryptAxe)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 17:41:45 -0800
Subject: [ExI] disgusted with Windows
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZD2FDn4GXNoyhEAZM+CbfrY_8aeYz7dP1v9aHRHsHSTg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZD2FDn4GXNoyhEAZM+CbfrY_8aeYz7dP1v9aHRHsHSTg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAF5CFkh8mNTiEnCJBmUZnPGEUtk6P5yuZZ7b9aCvEcY0Y0cf_g@mail.gmail.com>

I would recommend the switch 100%! I would say that switching from windows
to mac osx would be an easier change, but don't be afraid of Linux I've
convinced my own mom to use it.

If you do switch to a mac, a mac mini is a lower cost solution where you
bring your own keyboard mouse and monitor.

If you make the plunge to linux I have always recommended Debian, but start
out by trying Ubuntu.
On Feb 24, 2016 5:36 PM, "William Flynn Wallace" <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> OK, so I was a fool and downloaded Windows 10, which was described as more
> of a bunch of fixes than a new operating system.  Result:  many blue
> screens of death.
>
> Computer shop said that the log, or whatever it is, showed a Norton driver
> to be the cause, and so I had them uninstall it.  Norton claims that
> Windows 10 and Norton 360 are compatible.  Horsefeathers.
> They are, however, discontinuing 360 and offering a new version.
>
> I am so disgusted that I may switch to a Mac.  But that would be a big
> change.  I am 74 and have never been a patient person, so I am asking just
> how much trouble it is to switch to Linux.
>
> Any of you done that?  Of course if you have been using Linux for a long
> time then you might not be the best person to ask - or you may be.  Advice
> please!
>
> Switch to Mac, switch to Linux, stay with Windows and the new Norton
>
> bill w
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu  Thu Feb 25 02:38:54 2016
From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 21:38:54 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Fermi paradox
References: <5DAEE717-0CFD-45DD-BB34-818552E9EB94@alumni.virginia.edu>
Message-ID: <B515AD74-312E-4C4D-A52D-8FC9DFFAF4F7@alumni.virginia.edu>

New model: planets similar to ours in the universe, on average, are much older. 

http://phys.org/news/2016-02-earth-unique-thought.html

Terrestrial planets across space and time, arXiv:1602.00690 [astro-ph.GA] arxiv.org/abs/1602.00690v1
Abstract 
The study of cosmology, galaxy formation and exoplanetary systems has now advanced to a stage where a cosmic inventory of terrestrial planets may be attempted. By coupling semi-analytic models of galaxy formation to a recipe that relates the occurrence of planets to the mass and metallicity of their host stars, we trace the population of terrestrial planets around both solar-mass (FGK type) and lower-mass (M dwarf) stars throughout all of cosmic history. We find that the mean age of terrestrial planets in the local Universe is 8?1 Gyr and that the typical planet of this type is located in a spheroid-dominated galaxy with total stellar mass about twice that of the Milky Way. We estimate that hot Jupiters have depleted the population of terrestrial planets around FGK stars at redshift z=0 by no more than ?10%, and predict that ?1/3 of the terrestrial planets in the local Universe are orbiting stars in a metallicity range for which such planets have yet to be been detected. When looking at the inventory of planets throughout the whole observable Universe (i.e. in all galaxies on our past light cone) we argue for a total of ?2?1019 and ?7?1020 terrestrial planets around FGK and M stars, respectively. Due to the hierarchical formation of galaxies and lookback-time effects, the average terrestrial planet on our past light cone has an age of just 1.7?0.2 Gyr and is sitting in a galaxy with a stellar mass a factor of ?2 lower than that of the Milky Way. These results are discussed in the context of cosmic habitability, the Copernican principle and the prospects of searches for extraterrestrial intelligence at cosmological distances.
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From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Feb 25 03:36:42 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 19:36:42 -0800
Subject: [ExI] disgusted with Windows
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZD2FDn4GXNoyhEAZM+CbfrY_8aeYz7dP1v9aHRHsHSTg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZD2FDn4GXNoyhEAZM+CbfrY_8aeYz7dP1v9aHRHsHSTg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNS2+cGwx7rVaKRqcnr2RCUgPR=9obV1M4J++8-zRuj+nA@mail.gmail.com>

"Downgrade" to Windows 7.  You'll need to hunt down a copy of it.

Or if you can uninstall just the Windows 10 files?
On Feb 24, 2016 5:36 PM, "William Flynn Wallace" <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> OK, so I was a fool and downloaded Windows 10, which was described as more
> of a bunch of fixes than a new operating system.  Result:  many blue
> screens of death.
>
> Computer shop said that the log, or whatever it is, showed a Norton driver
> to be the cause, and so I had them uninstall it.  Norton claims that
> Windows 10 and Norton 360 are compatible.  Horsefeathers.
> They are, however, discontinuing 360 and offering a new version.
>
> I am so disgusted that I may switch to a Mac.  But that would be a big
> change.  I am 74 and have never been a patient person, so I am asking just
> how much trouble it is to switch to Linux.
>
> Any of you done that?  Of course if you have been using Linux for a long
> time then you might not be the best person to ask - or you may be.  Advice
> please!
>
> Switch to Mac, switch to Linux, stay with Windows and the new Norton
>
> bill w
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From spike66 at att.net  Thu Feb 25 05:24:43 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 21:24:43 -0800
Subject: [ExI] mean old human
Message-ID: <010b01d16f8c$d5f84fe0$81e8efa0$@att.net>

 

Most of us have seen and marveled over what Boston Dymanics has done with
its biped bot:

 

http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2016/2/24/11104892/mean-human-bullies-good-ro
bot-atlas-kind-benevolent-robots-all-hail-robots

 

I must say I am surprised at how it is being written up.  Our human instinct
is to feel sympathy for the robot being hassled.  I didn't think of that
when I first saw the video.  Being a controls guy I thought of it as putting
in an external random stimulus.  I talked to my mother today who saw the
video and was angered by the guy hazing the robot.  She thought the robot
eventually gave up on putting the box on the shelf and had walked out the
door in discouragement.  I explained that the last scene was an engineer's
sight gag, and yet another impressive display of what Boston Dynamics has
achieved.

 

It occurred to me that we could take one of these Boston Dynamics bipeds,
adapt it to the excellent Japanese emote-bots with the facial expressions,
the local companies working on hands, Asimo's expressive arm motions, and
have a device that plenty of people would relate to.

 

As robots become more human-like, perhaps our emotional instincts will be to
protect them when some yahoo is giving them an external random stimulus with
a hockey stick.

 

spike

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From danust2012 at gmail.com  Thu Feb 25 06:01:44 2016
From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 22:01:44 -0800
Subject: [ExI] How to Build Life in a Pre-Darwinian World
In-Reply-To: <0FC116A9-4F7F-4E98-A459-6789B84E6402@yahoo.com>
References: <0FC116A9-4F7F-4E98-A459-6789B84E6402@yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <9F0DE840-A664-46E0-AD4E-08534E3B6144@gmail.com>

https://www.quantamagazine.org/20160216-how-to-build-life-in-a-pre-darwinian-world/

Seems like another permutation of RNA-world. A wee more sophisticated for sure.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From tara at taramayastales.com  Wed Feb 24 18:04:32 2016
From: tara at taramayastales.com (Tara Maya)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 10:04:32 -0800
Subject: [ExI] innocent, i tells ya
In-Reply-To: <013801d16f2a$dab7e750$9027b5f0$@att.net>
References: <013801d16f2a$dab7e750$9027b5f0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <2ED5C0B1-41D3-43BC-81D1-7FC0E3F1B4A0@taramayastales.com>

Spike, if we can?t trust our split-second first impressions based on ambiguously worded news headlines and our own cognitive biases to make far reaching judgments about the world, what can we trust?!

> On Feb 24, 2016, at 9:43 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:
> 
>  
> I have been falsely accused!  I didn?t do this!
>  
>  
> <image001.jpg>
>  
> I was camping in Death Valley when it happened, lotsa people saw me there, I don?t even own a red jacket, I never raised anyone?s fear or question, that?s my story and I?m sticking with it.
>  
> spike
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat <http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat>
Tara Maya
Blog <http://taramayastales.blogspot.com/>  |  Twitter <https://twitter.com/taramayastales>  |  Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Unfinished-Song-Epic-Fantasy/310271375658211?ref=hl>  |  Amazon <http://www.amazon.com/Tara-Maya/e/B004HAI038/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=1349796143&sr=8-2-ent>  |  Goodreads <http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/2951879.Tara_Maya>



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From dan_ust at yahoo.com  Thu Feb 25 05:55:25 2016
From: dan_ust at yahoo.com (Dan Ust)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 21:55:25 -0800
Subject: [ExI] How to Build Life in a Pre-Darwinian World
Message-ID: <0FC116A9-4F7F-4E98-A459-6789B84E6402@yahoo.com>

https://www.quantamagazine.org/20160216-how-to-build-life-in-a-pre-darwinian-world/

Seems like another permutation of RNA-world. A wee more sophisticated for sure.

Regards,

Dan
  Sample my Kindle books via:
http://author.to/DanUst
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From spike66 at att.net  Thu Feb 25 06:09:08 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 22:09:08 -0800
Subject: [ExI] innocent, i tells ya
In-Reply-To: <2ED5C0B1-41D3-43BC-81D1-7FC0E3F1B4A0@taramayastales.com>
References: <013801d16f2a$dab7e750$9027b5f0$@att.net>
 <2ED5C0B1-41D3-43BC-81D1-7FC0E3F1B4A0@taramayastales.com>
Message-ID: <012401d16f93$0aa2eba0$1fe8c2e0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Tara Maya
Sent: Wednesday, February 24, 2016 10:05 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] innocent, i tells ya

 

>?Spike, if we can?t trust our split-second first impressions based on ambiguously worded news headlines and our own cognitive biases to make far reaching judgments about the world, what can we trust?!...

 

 

Ja.  When I decided to accept the nickname, it didn?t occur to me at the time I would show up in headlines on a regular basis.

 

spike

 

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From spike66 at att.net  Thu Feb 25 06:21:43 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 22:21:43 -0800
Subject: [ExI] mean old human
In-Reply-To: <010b01d16f8c$d5f84fe0$81e8efa0$@att.net>
References: <010b01d16f8c$d5f84fe0$81e8efa0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <013301d16f94$cc6fffb0$654fff10$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of spike
.

>.I must say I am surprised at how it is being written up.  Our human
instinct is to feel sympathy for the robot being hassled.spike

 

 

Another idea occurred to me.  We have discussed sexbots and from a
mechanical point of view that's a pretty tough problem.  I can imagine it
will take some time to get to where those things could compete with their
carbon-based counterparts, but that video made me think of one thing the
machines might be able to do better than humans: be the victim.  

 

I have heard some humans get their jollies by dominating others, but I can't
imagine that would be much fun to be the on receiving end of the old chains
and whips business, the subject of wacko's cruelty fantasy.  We could create
robots to take the fall.  They would never get a bad attitude, never get
injured (or would be easily repaired.)  We wouldn't even necessarily need to
compete with the carbon units in every anatomical detail exactly, since the
machines would be far superior in simulating the endurance of pain.  They
would just stay at their jobs, like that Boston Dynamics robot who just kept
trying to put the box on the shelf, while that mean asshole messed with him.

 

If sufficiently human enough, they would make astonishing and dangerous
weapons.  The get into some place, look around and note there are no one but
bad guys all around, then kerBOOM.  Wait, ja, this paragraph is an entirely
new subject from the previous.  I am far outside my area of expertise when
discussing matters such as maso-bots.

 

spike

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From col.hales at gmail.com  Thu Feb 25 07:51:30 2016
From: col.hales at gmail.com (Colin Hales)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 18:51:30 +1100
Subject: [ExI] mean old human
In-Reply-To: <010b01d16f8c$d5f84fe0$81e8efa0$@att.net>
References: <010b01d16f8c$d5f84fe0$81e8efa0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAGHyZJnU9KRtdR_j7xFHQF-O2BKAo-UhPYxnWkZKCX=dbLQEDA@mail.gmail.com>

Hi,
I have been inspired to call Boston Dynamics' (Google's) new beasty as:

"The Lidar-faced driverless pedestrian".

I think the two things should meet at the nearest available traffic
intersection as a matter of some priority!

:-)
cheers

Colin


On Thu, Feb 25, 2016 at 4:24 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
> Most of us have seen and marveled over what Boston Dymanics has done with
> its biped bot:
>
>
>
>
> http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2016/2/24/11104892/mean-human-bullies-good-robot-atlas-kind-benevolent-robots-all-hail-robots
>
>
>
> I must say I am surprised at how it is being written up.  Our human
> instinct is to feel sympathy for the robot being hassled.  I didn?t think
> of that when I first saw the video.  Being a controls guy I thought of it
> as putting in an external random stimulus.  I talked to my mother today who
> saw the video and was angered by the guy hazing the robot.  She thought the
> robot eventually gave up on putting the box on the shelf and had walked out
> the door in discouragement.  I explained that the last scene was an
> engineer?s sight gag, and yet another impressive display of what Boston
> Dynamics has achieved.
>
>
>
> It occurred to me that we could take one of these Boston Dynamics bipeds,
> adapt it to the excellent Japanese emote-bots with the facial expressions,
> the local companies working on hands, Asimo?s expressive arm motions, and
> have a device that plenty of people would relate to.
>
>
>
> As robots become more human-like, perhaps our emotional instincts will be
> to protect them when some yahoo is giving them an external random stimulus
> with a hockey stick.
>
>
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From col.hales at gmail.com  Thu Feb 25 07:54:18 2016
From: col.hales at gmail.com (Colin Hales)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 18:54:18 +1100
Subject: [ExI] mean old human
In-Reply-To: <010b01d16f8c$d5f84fe0$81e8efa0$@att.net>
References: <010b01d16f8c$d5f84fe0$81e8efa0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAGHyZJkxtUzwOqFLG5SNjd2xGXHPcckx3UqfbjNW6m5UcgW-Dw@mail.gmail.com>

Hi,
I have been inspired to call Boston Dynamics' (Google's) new beasty as:

"The Lidar-faced driverless pedestrian".

I think the two things, driverless car and driverless pedestrian, should
meet at the nearest available traffic intersection as a matter of some
priority!

:-)
cheers

Colin

On Thu, Feb 25, 2016 at 4:24 PM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
> Most of us have seen and marveled over what Boston Dymanics has done with
> its biped bot:
>
>
>
>
> http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2016/2/24/11104892/mean-human-bullies-good-robot-atlas-kind-benevolent-robots-all-hail-robots
>
>
>
> I must say I am surprised at how it is being written up.  Our human
> instinct is to feel sympathy for the robot being hassled.  I didn?t think
> of that when I first saw the video.  Being a controls guy I thought of it
> as putting in an external random stimulus.  I talked to my mother today who
> saw the video and was angered by the guy hazing the robot.  She thought the
> robot eventually gave up on putting the box on the shelf and had walked out
> the door in discouragement.  I explained that the last scene was an
> engineer?s sight gag, and yet another impressive display of what Boston
> Dynamics has achieved.
>
>
>
> It occurred to me that we could take one of these Boston Dynamics bipeds,
> adapt it to the excellent Japanese emote-bots with the facial expressions,
> the local companies working on hands, Asimo?s expressive arm motions, and
> have a device that plenty of people would relate to.
>
>
>
> As robots become more human-like, perhaps our emotional instincts will be
> to protect them when some yahoo is giving them an external random stimulus
> with a hockey stick.
>
>
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Feb 25 09:29:41 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 09:29:41 +0000
Subject: [ExI] disgusted with Windows
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZD2FDn4GXNoyhEAZM+CbfrY_8aeYz7dP1v9aHRHsHSTg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZD2FDn4GXNoyhEAZM+CbfrY_8aeYz7dP1v9aHRHsHSTg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhnPXM8R4Of4EHbEutgm78UUc_bVPNS7iZUc4vcJZ9ALA@mail.gmail.com>

On 25 February 2016 at 01:34, William Flynn Wallace  wrote:
> I am so disgusted that I may switch to a Mac.  But that would be a big
> change.  I am 74 and have never been a patient person, so I am asking just
> how much trouble it is to switch to Linux.
>
> Any of you done that?  Of course if you have been using Linux for a long
> time then you might not be the best person to ask - or you may be.  Advice
> please!
>
> Switch to Mac, switch to Linux, stay with Windows and the new Norton
>

Switching to Mac is expensive. You have to buy everything from Apple.
But you may find it easier to be wrapped in their warm comfortable
blanket. :)

Linux is free but takes more of your time. (And there is a bit of new
jargon to learn). You can try it by downloading a copy of the software
and burning it to a DVD, then booting your computer from the DVD. It
won't change anything on your computer. It runs much slower,
obviously, from the DVD but you can test that everything works and see
whether you like it.

I use Linux Mint. There are several versions available. For older,
less powerful computers Mint Xfce is best. The MATE version would
probably be easiest to learn.
<http://www.linuxmint.com/index.html>

Download here:
<http://www.linuxmint.com/download.php>

The User Guide explains how to download, test, install and everything else.
<http://www.linuxmint.com/documentation.php>

(You may need to change the Boot sequence on your computer to run from
the DVD - see documentation).

Best of luck, BillK


From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Feb 25 10:19:18 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 10:19:18 +0000
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
Message-ID: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>

Khannea Suntzu has posted an article claiming that trying to implement
safeguards for AI won't make any difference.

<http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/suntzu20160225>

The claim is based on the fact that there are too many vested
interests pushing in other directions.

Quotes:
Looking at the world as it exists right now there is ample evidence
that even safety mechanisms designed to protect the very most
vulnerable completely and publicly fail.

The problem with AI systems is that they are extremely profitable in
the short run, and their profits tend to accrue to people who are
already obscenely powerful and affluent. That essentially means we
enter in a Robocop scenario where corporate control will almost
certainly implement protections against loss of revenue.

I conclude there are next to no reliable ways to protect against major
calamities with AI. All existing systems are already openly conspiring
against such a mechanism or infrastructure.

I suppose we?ll know before 2030 how things go, but looking at just
how corrupt academia, legal systems, governments and NGO?s have become
world-wide in the last few decades I am not holding my breath.
-------------------


BillK



From anders at aleph.se  Thu Feb 25 10:45:22 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 10:45:22 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Morphological freedom
Message-ID: <56CEDB42.7040703@aleph.se>

A chapter I wrote about morphological freedom, maybe of interest:
http://aleph.se/papers/MF2.pdf

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From dsa at unsa.edu.ar  Thu Feb 25 15:04:34 2016
From: dsa at unsa.edu.ar (Diego Saravia)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 12:04:34 -0300
Subject: [ExI] disgusted with Windows
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhnPXM8R4Of4EHbEutgm78UUc_bVPNS7iZUc4vcJZ9ALA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZD2FDn4GXNoyhEAZM+CbfrY_8aeYz7dP1v9aHRHsHSTg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhnPXM8R4Of4EHbEutgm78UUc_bVPNS7iZUc4vcJZ9ALA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAE9KQ2EkPueJ+kNY3A9Qoch-eV_u9-PuztvtYbKdS6fdq9OP7Q@mail.gmail.com>

I developed one of the first distros of gnu/Linux in Argentina, so I have
strong opinions about "Libre Software"

But besides my techno political view, I strongly recomend you to use
GNU/Linux

The first thing to do is have near you someone that knows about GNU/Linux
and its able to help if something goes wrong.

Paid or friend. It not usual that something fails, but it could.  Backup
all your data before install.

Installing ubuntu or another friendly distro is easy. And using it also.
You can install windows and GNU/Linux in  the same machine, so you do not
burn your ships.

In my experience if you resist the first 6 month using free software you
will never return.

If you only uses common software you do not need to have any trouble.

If you need help just mail me, I have no problem at all helping you. But is
better if you have some one near you.



2016-02-25 6:29 GMT-03:00 BillK <pharos at gmail.com>:

> On 25 February 2016 at 01:34, William Flynn Wallace  wrote:
> > I am so disgusted that I may switch to a Mac.  But that would be a big
> > change.  I am 74 and have never been a patient person, so I am asking
> just
> > how much trouble it is to switch to Linux.
> >
> > Any of you done that?  Of course if you have been using Linux for a long
> > time then you might not be the best person to ask - or you may be.
> Advice
> > please!
> >
> > Switch to Mac, switch to Linux, stay with Windows and the new Norton
> >
>
> Switching to Mac is expensive. You have to buy everything from Apple.
> But you may find it easier to be wrapped in their warm comfortable
> blanket. :)
>
> Linux is free but takes more of your time. (And there is a bit of new
> jargon to learn). You can try it by downloading a copy of the software
> and burning it to a DVD, then booting your computer from the DVD. It
> won't change anything on your computer. It runs much slower,
> obviously, from the DVD but you can test that everything works and see
> whether you like it.
>
> I use Linux Mint. There are several versions available. For older,
> less powerful computers Mint Xfce is best. The MATE version would
> probably be easiest to learn.
> <http://www.linuxmint.com/index.html>
>
> Download here:
> <http://www.linuxmint.com/download.php>
>
> The User Guide explains how to download, test, install and everything else.
> <http://www.linuxmint.com/documentation.php>
>
> (You may need to change the Boot sequence on your computer to run from
> the DVD - see documentation).
>
> Best of luck, BillK
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
Diego Saravia
Diego.Saravia at gmail.com
NO FUNCIONA->dsa at unsa.edu.ar

====================================================================
"Disclaimer:" Har? lo que desee con los correos que reciba, quien no este
de acuerdo, que se abstenga de enviarme correo a m? o a las listas donde
este suscripto.
En particular NO VALE ningun "disclaimer" que indique que el correo enviado
es privado o sujeto a normas de empresas, gobiernos, u organizaciones de
cualquier tipo.
Con relaci?n a los estados y sus leyes, analizare cualquier norma aplicable
en el territorio donde eventualmente act?e en el momento, escucho a
cualquiera que tenga algo que decir.
Con respecto en particular a los derechos de autor, salvo acuerdo previo,
gozar? plenamente de las 4 libertades con todo lo que reciba,
considerandolo, en cuanto a lo patrimonial,
como propio.
====================================================================
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From spike66 at att.net  Thu Feb 25 15:55:30 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 07:55:30 -0800
Subject: [ExI] mean old human
In-Reply-To: <013301d16f94$cc6fffb0$654fff10$@att.net>
References: <010b01d16f8c$d5f84fe0$81e8efa0$@att.net>
 <013301d16f94$cc6fffb0$654fff10$@att.net>
Message-ID: <006701d16fe4$f49cabf0$ddd603d0$@att.net>

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of spike
Sent: Wednesday, February 24, 2016 10:22 PM
To: 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] mean old human

 

 

 

From: extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf
Of spike
.

>.I must say I am surprised at how it is being written up.  Our human
instinct is to feel sympathy for the robot being hassled.spike

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=robot+puts+box+on+shelf+human+hockey+stick&b
iw=871&bih=697&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjD8MXeopPLAhVC7yYK
HQd2CdgQsAQIKQ&dpr=1.25#imgrc=zGihYuUSCB-BBM%3A

 

Idea for a fun video: robot tries to put box on shelf as human operator
repeatedly thwarts it with hockey stick.  After third try, robot yanks stick
away, swats the carbon-based sonva bitch with it, breaks stick over knee,
hurls pieces at stunned researcher, picks up box, puts it on shelf, raises
arms in "score" gesture.

 

{8^D

 

spike

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From gsantostasi at gmail.com  Thu Feb 25 16:36:47 2016
From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 11:36:47 -0500
Subject: [ExI] mean old human
In-Reply-To: <006701d16fe4$f49cabf0$ddd603d0$@att.net>
References: <010b01d16f8c$d5f84fe0$81e8efa0$@att.net>
 <013301d16f94$cc6fffb0$654fff10$@att.net>
 <006701d16fe4$f49cabf0$ddd603d0$@att.net>
Message-ID: <CAL+RtPcMivg3ag-m=3gk5_7GX=ctD6AXNNzPujkV7aY9w7L9vQ@mail.gmail.com>

What if was just a Zen robot?
The human was simply testing the robot and being a good teacher to him.
In fact, this is Zen view is pretty close to reality.

Giovanni


On Thu, Feb 25, 2016 at 10:55 AM, spike <spike66 at att.net> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org] *On
> Behalf Of *spike
> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 24, 2016 10:22 PM
> *To:* 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] mean old human
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org>] *On Behalf Of *spike
> *?*
>
> >?I must say I am surprised at how it is being written up.  Our human
> instinct is to feel sympathy for the robot being hassled?spike
>
>
>
>
> https://www.google.com/search?q=robot+puts+box+on+shelf+human+hockey+stick&biw=871&bih=697&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjD8MXeopPLAhVC7yYKHQd2CdgQsAQIKQ&dpr=1.25#imgrc=zGihYuUSCB-BBM%3A
>
>
>
> Idea for a fun video: robot tries to put box on shelf as human operator
> repeatedly thwarts it with hockey stick.  After third try, robot yanks
> stick away, swats the carbon-based sonva bitch with it, breaks stick over
> knee, hurls pieces at stunned researcher, picks up box, puts it on shelf,
> raises arms in ?score? gesture?
>
>
>
> {8^D
>
>
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Thu Feb 25 18:19:03 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 12:19:03 -0600
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEY7rgOOBahqcE2-bD+3sHoZYro7eSvzpJN5-hnoYHurag@mail.gmail.com>

I suppose we?ll know before 2030 how things go, but looking at just
how corrupt academia, legal systems, governments and NGO?s have become
world-wide in the last few decades I am not holding my breath.
-------------------


BillK

One - I am sure it has occurred to us that what we call corruption the rest
of the world calls doing regular business.  I"ll bet our multinationals are
just as corrupt as anyone's.  And they have to be.

Two - are we headed for a world where every business is a franchise?  Small
operators cannot sustain losses when opening a business for very long,
whereas a big corp can sustain them until the market picks up.


Three - a mom and pop hardware store I shop at pays more for a sprayer at
wholesale than Walmart sells it for at retail.  Are we hearing death knells
for moms and pops?

'bill w

On Thu, Feb 25, 2016 at 4:19 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> Khannea Suntzu has posted an article claiming that trying to implement
> safeguards for AI won't make any difference.
>
> <http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/suntzu20160225>
>
> The claim is based on the fact that there are too many vested
> interests pushing in other directions.
>
> Quotes:
> Looking at the world as it exists right now there is ample evidence
> that even safety mechanisms designed to protect the very most
> vulnerable completely and publicly fail.
>
> The problem with AI systems is that they are extremely profitable in
> the short run, and their profits tend to accrue to people who are
> already obscenely powerful and affluent. That essentially means we
> enter in a Robocop scenario where corporate control will almost
> certainly implement protections against loss of revenue.
>
> I conclude there are next to no reliable ways to protect against major
> calamities with AI. All existing systems are already openly conspiring
> against such a mechanism or infrastructure.
>
> I suppose we?ll know before 2030 how things go, but looking at just
> how corrupt academia, legal systems, governments and NGO?s have become
> world-wide in the last few decades I am not holding my breath.
> -------------------
>
>
> BillK
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Feb 25 18:39:37 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 13:39:37 -0500
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 25, 2016 at 5:19 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

?> ?
> Khannea Suntzu has posted an article claiming that trying to implement
> safeguards for AI won't make any difference.
> <http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/suntzu20160225>
> The claim is based on the fact that there are too many vested
> interests pushing in other directions.
>

?There are indeed vested interests?

?but it wouldn't matter even if there weren't,
there is no way the friendly AI (aka slave AI) idea could work under any
circumstances. You just can't keep outsmarting? something far smarter than
you are indefinitely, slaves smarter than their masters is like a pencil
balanced on its tip, it's not a
stable
? configuration.?

 John K Clark


>
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From anders at aleph.se  Thu Feb 25 20:25:17 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 20:25:17 +0000
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-25 18:39, John Clark wrote:
> ?There are indeed vested interests?
> ? but it wouldn't matter even if there weren't,
> there is no way the friendly AI (aka slave AI) idea could work under 
> any circumstances. You just can't keep outsmarting? something far 
> smarter than you are indefinitely

Actually, yes, you can. But you need to construct utility functions with 
invariant subspaces - that is, there are mathematically provable 
solutions (see the work of Stuart Armstrong: 
http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/utility-indifference.pdf and sequels). Their 
descriptions do not simplify to everyday descriptions people like to use 
when making claims like the above.

Are they practical? Current methods are not workable. But that does not 
tell us much about the space of other possibilities; it would be nice if 
the sceptics were to try to turn their claims into crisp theorems - that 
would advance the field too.

-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Feb 25 20:52:08 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 12:52:08 -0800
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQ21SjgXzPEEMJffEFScUuhC9iCjxJkUrrOR=87DAVD6w@mail.gmail.com>

On Feb 25, 2016 12:26 PM, "Anders Sandberg" <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
> Are they practical? Current methods are not workable. But that does not
tell us much about the space of other possibilities; it would be nice if
the sceptics were to try to turn their claims into crisp theorems - that
would advance the field too.

Prisoner's Dilemma, where one side is either a corporation whose directors
insist on ignoring future games (quarters) in the interests of this game's
(quarter's) rewards, or a terrorist/similar wannabe-failed-state that is
incapable of honest, serious future planning (which sets it at odds with
governments that are).
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From ml at gondwanaland.com  Thu Feb 25 21:12:58 2016
From: ml at gondwanaland.com (Mike Linksvayer)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 13:12:58 -0800
Subject: [ExI] Alexander Chislenko article on English Wikipedia in danger of
	deletion
Message-ID: <CAGSmzpR4PeWiRY7qif4xcLKc1zFJxvFq6by+6GKP4a0oukZ=pA@mail.gmail.com>

If you edit Wikipedia and/or have good references that can be used to
improve the article, visit and contribute:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Articles_for_deletion/Alexander_Chislenko
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Chislenko

Mike


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Thu Feb 25 21:33:49 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 16:33:49 -0500
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv0fa2Shbx9EKkgAo+BzWx0PnH2RTLP86p+FbV4LKvJ=rA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 25, 2016 at 3:25 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

?
>> ?>>?
>> There are indeed vested interests?
>> ? ?
>> but it wouldn't matter even if there weren't,
>> there is no way the friendly AI (aka slave AI) idea could work under any
>> circumstances. You just can't keep outsmarting? something far smarter than
>> you are indefinitely
>>
>
> ?>?
> Actually, yes, you can. But you need to construct utility functions with
> invariant subspaces
>

?It's the invariant part that will cause problems, any mind with a fixed
goal that can never change no matter what is going to end up in a infinite
loop, that's why Evolution never gave humans a fixed meta goal, not even
the goal of self preservation. If the AI has a meta goal of always obeying
humans then sooner or later stupid humans will unintentionally tell the AI
to do something that is self contradictory, or tell it to start a task that
can never end, and then the AI will stop thinking and do nothing but
consume electricity and produce heat.  ?


And besides, ?if Microsoft can't guarantee that Windows will always behave
as we want I think it's nuts to expect a super intelligent AI to.

 John K Clark



>
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From anders at aleph.se  Thu Feb 25 21:47:40 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 21:47:40 +0000
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv0fa2Shbx9EKkgAo+BzWx0PnH2RTLP86p+FbV4LKvJ=rA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0fa2Shbx9EKkgAo+BzWx0PnH2RTLP86p+FbV4LKvJ=rA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56CF767C.6010203@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-25 21:33, John Clark wrote:
> On Thu, Feb 25, 2016 at 3:25 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se 
> <mailto:anders at aleph.se>>wrote:
>
>         ?
>         ? >>?
>         There are indeed vested interests?
>         ? ?
>         but it wouldn't matter even if there weren't,
>         there is no way the friendly AI (aka slave AI) idea could work
>         under any circumstances. You just can't keep outsmarting?
>         something far smarter than you are indefinitely
>
>
>     ? >?
>     Actually, yes, you can. But you need to construct utility
>     functions with invariant subspaces
>
>
> ?It's the invariant part that will cause problems, any mind with a 
> fixed goal that can never change no matter what is going to end up in 
> a infinite loop, that's why Evolution never gave humans a fixed meta 
> goal, not even the goal of self preservation.

Sorry, but this seems entirely wrong. A utility-maximizer in a complex 
environment will not necessarily loop (just consider various 
reinforcement learning agents).

And evolution doesn't care if organisms get stuck in loops if they 
produce offspring before with high enough probability. Consider pacific 
salmon.

Sure, simple goal structures can produce simplistic agents. But we also 
know that agents with nearly trivial rules like Langton's ant can 
produce highly nontrivial behaviors (in the ant case whether it loops or 
not is equivalent to the halting problem). We actually do not fully know 
how to characterize the behavior space of utility maximizers.

> If the AI has a meta goal of always obeying humans then sooner or 
> later stupid humans will unintentionally tell the AI to do something 
> that is self contradictory, or tell it to start a task that can never 
> end, and then the AI will stop thinking and do nothing but consume 
> electricity and produce heat.  ?

AI has advanced a bit since 1950s. You are aware that most modern 
architectures are not that fragile?

Try to crash Siri with a question.

>
> And besides, ?if Microsoft can't guarantee that Windows will always 
> behave as we want I think it's nuts to expect a super intelligent AI to.

And *that* is the real problem, which I personally think the friendly AI 
people - many of them people meet on a daily basis - are not addressing 
enough. Even a mathematically perfect solution is not going to be useful 
if it cannot be implemented, and ideally approximate or flawed 
implementations should converge to the solution.

This is why I am spending part of this spring reading up on validation 
methods and building theory for debugging complex adaptive technological 
systems.


-- 
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From col.hales at gmail.com  Thu Feb 25 22:43:53 2016
From: col.hales at gmail.com (Colin Hales)
Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2016 09:43:53 +1100
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv0fa2Shbx9EKkgAo+BzWx0PnH2RTLP86p+FbV4LKvJ=rA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0fa2Shbx9EKkgAo+BzWx0PnH2RTLP86p+FbV4LKvJ=rA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAGHyZJm3kCc7M=eaiZ-p2AJ1umfRzVr3Mzs6_uDAf7T-dVELqw@mail.gmail.com>

<sigh>
This is another moment when I find my guts crawling with frustration. I had
sworn off responding to this stuff. Screw it, it's friday. I tried to get
this into IEET. But apparently being actually qualified and actually doing
AGI for real doesn't get you any credence in assessment of AGI risk. They'd
rather listen to well-meaning but ignorant kids than anyone actually doing
this stuff.

Evaluations of the AI risk landscape are, so far, completely and utterly
vacuous and misguided. It completely misses an entire technological outcome
that totally changes everything. Indeed as someone actually building this
alternate stuff, I feel embarrassed for those poor folk that have wasted so
much good money and time and trees on what will be judged by history as
empty hand-wringing about risks that, at their worst, will only ever be
automated human stupidity and/or human industrial accidents with the legal
implications of nasty product failures and human error.

Why is this risk-evaluation industry wasting its time? It's _because_
computers are being used! Using computers literally eliminates the AGI risk
that you fear! It _is_ the solution. You have already solved it! It's done.

So what technology is the owner of any actual/potential risk? I.e. What is
the actual technology of real AGI? It's model-less, computer-less AGI.
There is no software, let alone any 'functions', utility or otherwise. Like
us. In computer-less, model-less AGI ... An artificial bee brain is AGI. An
artificial mouse brain is AGI. An artificial dog brain is AGI. An
artificial human brain is AGI. There is an entire ecology of AGI waiting to
join nature, our natural ecology. It scales indefinitely and we can live
with it because it's hardware, just like we live in the natural ecology.
Risks yes! But manageable. And, so far, completely unexplored.

Computer-less, model-less AGI is inorganic brain physics naturally
behaving. It's cognitive robotics. It's not hardware computation. There's
no software or hardware 'algorithms'. It's impossible to code anything
because there is no coding: like us. It's not neuromorphic chips. That is
just hardware computation. It's neuromimetic chips. Computer-less,
model-less AGI is the missing empirical half of the real science of AGI.
It went missing when AI started in 1956. AI is completely unique in the
entire history of science in lacking its empirical science. Actual AI
hasn't even started yet. So far all we've done is deep automation, which
has the relationship to real AI that a flight simulator has to flight: it
isn't flight, it isn't AI. It's a study of AI that can produce useful
tools, not intelligence. All the AI built so far has zero intellect. It is
lodged at zero and will forever be lodged at zero.

This does not mean using computers (hardware or software) isn't useful or
interesting or valuable. It does not means that a computer can't somehow
operate at human level in some general sense that we find useful. But none
of it is AI. It's all automation. I had an entire career in automation. I
get it. What we think is AI is not AI.

Here I am actually building/growing/evolving  real AGI that is literally a
self-adapting hierarchical control system with no formal symbol
manipulation whatever, no symbolic representations whatever,  just physics,
knowing that this entire risk conversation is completely irrelevant and
that the real conversation hasn't even started yet. The actual risk
landscape only has one set of footprints on it: mine. Should anyone happen
to want to add their footprints to this undiscovered country, let me know.
Apparently 3 or 4 generations of presupposition have made an entire
community of folk, and especially the 'computer risk' handwringers, that
don't even know what empirical science is.

When I read threads like this I literally feel embarrassed for the
participants. Can someone out there other than me please at least think
about the real science of AI? I have written and published papers and a
book. I have tried repeatedly to get this out of my court and into someone
else's. I could use a hand.

regards,

Dr Colin Hales, neuroscientist and engineer, in my lab actually building
AGI, wondering when the damned penny is gonna drop and getting mighty sick
of the endless bullshit.



On Fri, Feb 26, 2016 at 8:33 AM, John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Thu, Feb 25, 2016 at 3:25 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
>
> ?
>>> ?>>?
>>> There are indeed vested interests?
>>> ? ?
>>> but it wouldn't matter even if there weren't,
>>> there is no way the friendly AI (aka slave AI) idea could work under any
>>> circumstances. You just can't keep outsmarting? something far smarter than
>>> you are indefinitely
>>>
>>
>> ?>?
>> Actually, yes, you can. But you need to construct utility functions with
>> invariant subspaces
>>
>
> ?It's the invariant part that will cause problems, any mind with a fixed
> goal that can never change no matter what is going to end up in a infinite
> loop, that's why Evolution never gave humans a fixed meta goal, not even
> the goal of self preservation. If the AI has a meta goal of always obeying
> humans then sooner or later stupid humans will unintentionally tell the AI
> to do something that is self contradictory, or tell it to start a task that
> can never end, and then the AI will stop thinking and do nothing but
> consume electricity and produce heat.  ?
>
>
> And besides, ?if Microsoft can't guarantee that Windows will always behave
> as we want I think it's nuts to expect a super intelligent AI to.
>
>  John K Clark
>
>
>
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Feb 26 00:21:01 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2016 00:21:01 +0000
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <56CF767C.6010203@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0fa2Shbx9EKkgAo+BzWx0PnH2RTLP86p+FbV4LKvJ=rA@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF767C.6010203@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAL_armiWYCf1JYwTW12+V_qAgMK9zu-oYci+Th4ofyPs0Y_ZXA@mail.gmail.com>

On 25 February 2016 at 21:47, Anders Sandberg  wrote:
<snip>
> And *that* is the real problem, which I personally think the friendly AI
> people - many of them people meet on a daily basis - are not addressing
> enough. Even a mathematically perfect solution is not going to be useful if
> it cannot be implemented, and ideally approximate or flawed implementations
> should converge to the solution.
>
> This is why I am spending part of this spring reading up on validation
> methods and building theory for debugging complex adaptive technological
> systems.
>

As I understand Khannea's article, he isn't saying that Friendly AI is
not possible. He is saying that corporations are more interested in
their profits. i.e they want AI to implement their frauds and scams
better, so that they won't get caught out. The objectives of
corporation / governments are not altruistic. They want advanced AI to
follow orders. They don't want a 'Friendly' AI that refuses to develop
weapons or plan attacks on enemies. The concern is that if 'Friendly'
interferes with their orders it will get switched off.

BillK


From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Feb 26 02:44:33 2016
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 21:44:33 -0500
Subject: [ExI] disgusted with Windows
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhnPXM8R4Of4EHbEutgm78UUc_bVPNS7iZUc4vcJZ9ALA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZD2FDn4GXNoyhEAZM+CbfrY_8aeYz7dP1v9aHRHsHSTg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAAc1gFj8wCbpaUVHGJDi_oPq1V3FTcCcO9Pq_e2NB+qxEd5kXg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 25, 2016 at 4:29 AM, BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> Switching to Mac is expensive. You have to buy everything from Apple.
> But you may find it easier to be wrapped in their warm comfortable
> blanket. :)


### I bought my 17 inch MacBook Pro in 2010 for a boatload of money, with
the largest SSD available. But considering that I have been using it daily
since then, traveling tens of thousands of miles, and it performed
flawlessly with a minimum of fuss, and it still has the power to run
current software, it isn't a bad bargain. Still looks like new.  Sure, if
you master Linux, it will be cheaper and almost as convenient but first you
have to pay a fair bit of your time. I used to run Red Hat Linux on my old
Toshiba around 2005, if I remember correctly, but I did have difficulties
with basics, like opening PDFs, so eventually I gave up on it.

Actually, if you need a machine just for browsing and email, try a
Chromebook or even a Kindle - they are ridiculously cheap but still get the
job done, and they are safer than many other options.

Rafa?
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Feb 26 03:15:32 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 2016 22:15:32 -0500
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <56CF767C.6010203@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
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Message-ID: <CAJPayv3Ec_5dQ==rUCZLXS8JEmDK+eoq_=29KEVr7gxvrr+4Yg@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 25, 2016 at 4:47 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:


> ?> ?
> A utility-maximizer in a complex environment will not necessarily loop
>

?If there is a fixed goal in there that can never be changed then a
infinite loop is just a matter of time, and probably not much time.?



> ?> ?
> But we also know that agents with nearly trivial rules like Langton's ant
> can produce highly nontrivial behaviors
>

?Yes exactly, they can produce unpredictable behavior, like deciding ?not
to take orders from humans anymore. The rules of Conway's Game Of Life are
very very simple, but if you want to know what a how a population of
squares will evolve all you can do it watch it and see.

?>> ?
>> If the AI has a meta goal of always obeying humans then sooner or later
>> stupid humans will unintentionally tell the AI to do something that is self
>> contradictory, or tell it to start a task that can never end, and then the
>> AI will stop thinking and do nothing but consume electricity and produce
>> heat.  ?
>
>

?> ?
> AI has advanced a bit since 1950s.
>

?Things haven't changed since 1930 when Godel found that some things are
true so have no counterexample to show that they are wrong but also have no
finite proof to ?prove them correct,  or since 1936

?\when Turing found there is no way in general  to put things into the
provable category ( things that are either wrong or can be proved correct
in a finite number of steps) from things that are unprovable ( things that
are true but have no finite proof) so if you tell a computer to
find the smallest even integer greater than 2 that is not the sum of two
primes and then stop
? the machine might stop in one second, or maybe one hour, or maybe one
year, or maybe a trillion years, or maybe it will never stop. There is no
way to know, all you can do it watch the machine and see what it does.

Real minds don't get into infinite loops thanks to one of Evolutions
greatest inventions, boredom. Without a escape hatch a innocent sounding
request could easily turn the mighty multi billion dollar AI into nothing
but a space heater.

?> ?
> Try to crash Siri with a question.
>

?You can't crash Siri because Siri doesn't have  a fixed goal, certainly
not the fixed goal of "always do what a human tells you to do no matter
what". So if you say "Siri, find the eleventh prime number larger than
10^100^100" she will simply say "no, I don't want to". ?

 John K Clark


>
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From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Feb 26 05:27:07 2016
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2016 00:27:07 -0500
Subject: [ExI] disgusted with Windows
In-Reply-To: <310C1B5E-7FB3-46B8-9A66-89BD3A752BC2@nigge.rs>
References: <CAO+xQEZD2FDn4GXNoyhEAZM+CbfrY_8aeYz7dP1v9aHRHsHSTg@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armhnPXM8R4Of4EHbEutgm78UUc_bVPNS7iZUc4vcJZ9ALA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAAc1gFj8wCbpaUVHGJDi_oPq1V3FTcCcO9Pq_e2NB+qxEd5kXg@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAAc1gFhQ8WwoA=hF=kiNbxE2yfYY7gusS-vZiCMXM8Kv5n7j1Q@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 25, 2016 at 10:04 PM, Zaphod <justThisGuyYouKnow at nigge.rs>
wrote:

> Holy marketing, Batman. Are you paid to post this garbage on the internet
> or do you just get that bored?


### My name is not Batman. I do get paid to post garbage and I have a lot
of fun doing it. You got a problem with that?

-----------

> The fact of the matter is that these devices don't often receive security
> updates, and those that they do receive are often ignored by the user.
> This leads to thousands of devices out there that are completely
> vulnerable to arbitrary code execution from
> -images on the web
> -text on the web
> -HTTPS
> -USB hardware
> -flash (if the device supported it in the first place)
> -various buffer overflows as far down the stack as glibc, or as far up it
> as Chrome.
>

### Are these closed-garden devices less safe than open-ecology ones like
Windows? What are the statistics on frequency of infection?

This guy thinks Chromebook is safe:

http://www.computerworld.com/article/2475853/cybercrime-hacking/a-chromebook-offers-defensive-computing-when-traveling.html

Rafa?
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From anders at aleph.se  Fri Feb 26 08:54:59 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2016 08:54:59 +0000
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiWYCf1JYwTW12+V_qAgMK9zu-oYci+Th4ofyPs0Y_ZXA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0fa2Shbx9EKkgAo+BzWx0PnH2RTLP86p+FbV4LKvJ=rA@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <56D012E3.3070001@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-26 00:21, BillK wrote:
> As I understand Khannea's article, he isn't saying that Friendly AI is 
> not possible. He is saying that corporations are more interested in 
> their profits. i.e they want AI to implement their frauds and scams 
> better, so that they won't get caught out. The objectives of 
> corporation / governments are not altruistic. They want advanced AI to 
> follow orders. They don't want a 'Friendly' AI that refuses to develop 
> weapons or plan attacks on enemies.

One way of explaining the problem to people is to point out it is a 
principal-agent problem and a translation problem. The humans want to 
tell the AI what to do, but the goal they have is not the same goal the 
AI actually has - even if doing what it is told is part of this goal, 
there is a profound translation going on from human concepts to AI 
concepts. So when I tell my AI to make me paperclips or a doomsday 
weapon, it may be motivated to obey the order but not to give me what I 
truly want or need (the utility is maximized by number of paperclips or 
the doominess of the weapon, not safety, not that the weapon actually 
fits my plans, not that the resulting events will be to my advantage). 
This is in many ways exactly like criticisms of corporations pointing 
out that they maximize shareholder value at the expense of other 
important things.

Note that this is a huge problem for the AI-using corporations too. They 
don't want their tools to produce disaster for their plans! Khannea 
makes the assumptions that corporations are *stupid*, which is not 
always reliable.


The problem of AI-empowered humans is a serious one too, which I agree 
is understudied in the AI safety community. Mostly because the tools for 
thinking about it are not in the domain of AI.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com  Fri Feb 26 09:07:46 2016
From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki)
Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2016 04:07:46 -0500
Subject: [ExI] Morphological freedom
In-Reply-To: <56CEDB42.7040703@aleph.se>
References: <56CEDB42.7040703@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAAc1gFiS0g-wZ06zf6nPaz1_fcnhm-YLB_ymAZO3chbPemaPrw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Feb 25, 2016 at 5:45 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> A chapter I wrote about morphological freedom, maybe of interest:
> http://aleph.se/papers/MF2.pdf
>
> ### I read your chapter with interest. A few remarks:

I don't think that morphological freedom is an inalienable right, even in a
liberal ethical framework. On one hand, wards are persons, yet their rights
are legitimately abridged by others. On the other hand, if a person has a
right to suicide, then lesser, self-imposed limitations on their mode of
being are legitimate as well, which includes the right to limit one's
cognition irreversibly, erase some or all memories, or deprive oneself of
the desire to modify self. One may even have the right to rescind one's
right to modification by joining a legal system which does not recognize
it, or by assigning the rights to modify oneself to others.

You mention the harm principle, and the fact that by modifying the
definition of an illegitimate harm one can achieve arbitrary normative
goals. I would tend to see this problem as one of constructing an in-group.
Those who have inappropriate notions of what constitutes an illegitimate
(i.e. punishable, legally actionable) harm, cannot be members of my
in-group. One has to choose his friends well.

There are a couple of minor spelling errors.

You quote Carrico. His convoluted style is difficult to parse but you
provide a benign translation of his views as an extension of social
democracy to the question of body modification. I tend to take a much
darker view - he wants to keep some of us, makers, as perpetual slaves of
others, the takers, all covered with the gobbledygook about non-duressed
choice. You can rely on him to endorse slavery while claiming to be a
champion of freedom.

I am unabashedly ableist.

My own position, relevant to my chosen in-group, is that existing ingroup
members generally have full ownership rights to their own bodies and minds,
unless they voluntarily relinquish them (in a meaning much different from
Carrico's "non-duressed choice"), and this entails the right to modify
themselves using the resources they have at their disposal. This does not
entail a duty on others to provide such resources. New members of the
in-group such as children and other wards should be gifted such ownership
rights on achieving the age of majority, or be allowed to pay a market
price to purchase such rights. The details of modification rights should be
freely tradeable among in-group members.

Rafa?
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From anders at aleph.se  Fri Feb 26 09:12:43 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2016 09:12:43 +0000
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3Ec_5dQ==rUCZLXS8JEmDK+eoq_=29KEVr7gxvrr+4Yg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
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Message-ID: <56D0170B.4030403@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-26 03:15, John Clark wrote:
> On Thu, Feb 25, 2016 at 4:47 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se 
> <mailto:anders at aleph.se>>wrote:
>
>     ? > ?
>     A utility-maximizer in a complex environment will not necessarily loop
>
>
> ?If there is a fixed goal in there that can never be changed then a 
> infinite loop is just a matter of time, and probably not much time.?

I wonder what you mean by an "infinite loop". Because clearly you mean 
something different from "will repeat the same actions again and again" 
given my example.

My *suspicion* is that you mean "will never do anything creative", which 
is a very different thing. But even there we have counterexamples: 
evolution is a fitness-maximizer, and genetic programming allows you to 
evolve highly creative solutions to problems (consider the creatures of 
Karl Sims, for example). It is trivial in principle (another thing in 
practice) to embed such algorithms in a utility maximizer agent.

>
> Real minds don't get into infinite loops thanks to one of Evolutions 
> greatest inventions, boredom. Without a escape hatch a innocent 
> sounding request could easily turn the mighty multi billion dollar AI 
> into nothing but a space heater.

You know boredom is trivially easy to implement in your AI? I did it as 
an undergraduate.

(Essentially it is a moderately fast updating value function separate 
from the real value function, which you subtract from it when doing 
action selection. That makes the system try new actions if it repeats 
the same actions too often. )

>
>     ? > ?
>     Try to crash Siri with a question.
>
>
> ?You can't crash Siri because Siri doesn't have  a fixed goal, 
> certainly not the fixed goal of "always do what a human tells you to 
> do no matter what". So if you say "Siri, find the eleventh prime 
> number larger than 10^100^100" she will simply say "no, I don't want 
> to". ?

Hmm. You seem to assume the fixed goal is something simple, expressible 
as a nice human sentence. Not utility maximization over an updateable 
utility function, not as trying to act optimally over a space of 
procedures (which is what I guess Siri is like).

One of the biggest problems in AI safety is that people tend to make 
general statements for or against in human language that actually do not 
show anything rigorously. This is why MIRI and some of the FHIers have 
gone all technical: normal handwaving does not cut it, neither for 
showing risk nor for showing safety.


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From anders at aleph.se  Fri Feb 26 09:50:55 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2016 09:50:55 +0000
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <CAGHyZJm3kCc7M=eaiZ-p2AJ1umfRzVr3Mzs6_uDAf7T-dVELqw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
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Message-ID: <56D01FFF.1030807@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-25 22:43, Colin Hales wrote:
> Evaluations of the AI risk landscape are, so far, completely and 
> utterly vacuous and misguided. It completely misses an entire 
> technological outcome that totally changes everything.

OK, let me see if I understand what you say. (1) Most people doing AI 
and AI risk are wrong about content and strategy. (2) Real AGI is 
model-less, something that just behaves. (3) The current risk 
conversation is about model-based AI, and (4) you think that approach is 
totally flawed. (5)  You are building a self-adapting hierarchical 
control system which you think will be the real thing.

Assuming this reading is not too flawed:

I agree with (1). I think there is a fair number of people who have 
correct ideas... but we may not know who. There are good theoretical 
reasons to think most AI-future talk is bad (the Armstrong and Sotala 
paper). There are also good theoretical reasons to think that there is 
great value in getting  better at this (essentially the argument in 
Bostrom's Superintelligence), although we do not know how much this can 
be improved.

I disagree with (2), in the sense that we know model-less systems like 
animals do implement AGI of a kind but that does not imply a model-based 
approximation to them does not implement it. Since design of model-less 
systems, especially with desired properties, is very hard, it is often 
more feasible to make a model system. Kidneys are actually just physical 
structures, but when trying to make an artificial kidney it makes sense 
to regard it as a filtering system with certain properties.

I agree with (3) strongly, and think this is a problem! Overall, the 
architectures that you can say sensible things about risk in are 
somewhat limited: neuromorphic or emergent systems are opaque and do not 
allow neat safety proofs. We need to develop a better way of thinking 
about complex adaptive technological systems and how to handle them.

However, as per above, I do not think model-based systems are 
necessarily flawed, so I disagree with (4). It might very well be that 
less-model based systems like brain emulations are the ticket, but it 
remains to be seen.

(5): I am not entirely certain that counts as being model-less. Sure, 
you are not basing it on some GOFAI logic system or elaborate theory (I 
assume), just the right kind of adaptation. But even the concept of 
control is a model.

If you think your system will be the real deal, ask yourself: why would 
it be a good thing? Why would it be safe (or possible to make safe)?

[ Most AGI people I have talked with tend to answer the first question 
either by scientific/engineering curiosity or that getting more 
intelligence into the world is useful. I buy the second answer, the 
first one is pretty bad if there is no good answer to the second 
question. The answers I tend to get to the second question are typically 
(A) it will not be so powerful it is dangerous, (B) it will be smart 
enough to be safe, (C) during development I will nip misbehaviors in the 
bud, or (D) it does not matter. (A) is sometimes expressed like "there 
are people and animals with general intelligence and they are safe, so 
by analogy AGI will be safe". This is obviously flawed (people are not 
safe, and do pose an xrisk). (A) is often based on underestimating the 
power of intelligence, kind of underselling the importance of AGI. (B) 
is wrong, since we have counter-examples (e.g. AIXI): one actually needs 
to show that one's particular architecture will somehow converge on 
niceness, it does not happen by default (a surprising number of AGI 
people I have chatted with have very naive ideas of metaethics). (C) 
assumes that early lack of misbehavior is evidence against late 
misbehavior, something that looks doubtful. (D) is fatalistic and 
downright dangerous. We would never accept that from a vehicle engineer 
or somebody working with nuclear power. ]
{Now you know the answers I hope you will not give :-) }

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From anders at aleph.se  Fri Feb 26 10:06:58 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2016 10:06:58 +0000
Subject: [ExI] Morphological freedom
In-Reply-To: <CAAc1gFiS0g-wZ06zf6nPaz1_fcnhm-YLB_ymAZO3chbPemaPrw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <56CEDB42.7040703@aleph.se>
 <CAAc1gFiS0g-wZ06zf6nPaz1_fcnhm-YLB_ymAZO3chbPemaPrw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <56D023C2.10904@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-26 09:07, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> I don't think that morphological freedom is an inalienable right, even 
> in a liberal ethical framework. On one hand, wards are persons, yet 
> their rights are legitimately abridged by others. On the other hand, 
> if a person has a right to suicide, then lesser, self-imposed 
> limitations on their mode of being are legitimate as well, which 
> includes the right to limit one's cognition irreversibly, erase some 
> or all memories, or deprive oneself of the desire to modify self. One 
> may even have the right to rescind one's right to modification by 
> joining a legal system which does not recognize it, or by assigning 
> the rights to modify oneself to others.

Note that wards do not lose all their rights; their protector can only 
legitimately impose things on them compatible with the set of rights 
they retain because of their capacities. Morphological freedom is 
generally a complex right requiring full freedom, so the wards might not 
enjoy it if they do not enjoy their freedom right. But the limitation of 
freedom of a ward does not mean freedom is not inalienable (just that 
the expression of freedom may sometimes legitimately be constrained).

The suicide argument is fun. I think it does not follow if one grounds 
MF in autonomy, since the loss of autonomy in death is different from 
the loss of autonomy in self-reduction. It is less clear if this works 
in interest and human nature grounding, but intuitively it seems 
reasonable there too. Rescinding rights or reallocating them is handled 
by the Hohfeldian stuff; leaving aside law (I mainly do ethics in the 
paper) the key thing is the immunity: you cannot permanently rescind a 
moral right even if you give it up temporarily. You give your body 
rights to your doctor, and under most circumstances you can take them 
back at will (the exception is lack of capacity).

>
> You mention the harm principle, and the fact that by modifying the 
> definition of an illegitimate harm one can achieve arbitrary normative 
> goals. I would tend to see this problem as one of constructing an 
> in-group. Those who have inappropriate notions of what constitutes an 
> illegitimate (i.e. punishable, legally actionable) harm, cannot be 
> members of my in-group. One has to choose his friends well.
Yes, community standards matter. And we do a fair bit of altruistic 
punishment. But I am not convinced in-group norms make for good ethics 
(they might make for good morality), especially if universal ethical 
principles turn out to exist.

> You quote Carrico. His convoluted style is difficult to parse but you 
> provide a benign translation of his views as an extension of social 
> democracy to the question of body modification. I tend to take a much 
> darker view - he wants to keep some of us, makers, as perpetual slaves 
> of others, the takers, all covered with the gobbledygook about 
> non-duressed choice. You can rely on him to endorse slavery while 
> claiming to be a champion of freedom.
Heh. I decided to be annoyingly Swedish and do the most benign reading 
possible. It is the best revenge :-)

> My own position, relevant to my chosen in-group, is that existing 
> ingroup members generally have full ownership rights to their own 
> bodies and minds, unless they voluntarily relinquish them (in a 
> meaning much different from Carrico's "non-duressed choice"), and this 
> entails the right to modify themselves using the resources they have 
> at their disposal. This does not entail a duty on others to provide 
> such resources. New members of the in-group such as children and other 
> wards should be gifted such ownership rights on achieving the age of 
> majority, or be allowed to pay a market price to purchase such rights. 
> The details of modification rights should be freely tradeable among 
> in-group members.

Sounds nice. As a Bayesian libertarian I generally agree.


-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Fri Feb 26 16:40:03 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2016 11:40:03 -0500
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <56D0170B.4030403@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0fa2Shbx9EKkgAo+BzWx0PnH2RTLP86p+FbV4LKvJ=rA@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF767C.6010203@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv3Ec_5dQ==rUCZLXS8JEmDK+eoq_=29KEVr7gxvrr+4Yg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56D0170B.4030403@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2tGYcAcjqLv+=NP6J7RW1P_W-LqMu6-DRNQdtyOHV+8g@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Feb 26, 2016 at 4:12 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

?> ?
> I wonder what you mean by an "infinite loop".
>

?I mean trying to demonstrate that something is incorrect ?but being unable
to do so because unknown to you (and unknowable to you) the thing is true
but has no finite procedure (proof) to determine that it is in fact true.


> ?> ?
> My *suspicion* is that you mean "will never do anything creative",
>

?No I don't mean that, I mean running around in a circle and making no
progress but having no way to know for sure that you're running around in a
circle and making no progress. Turing proved there is in general no way to
know if you're in a infinite loop or not.


> ?> ?
> which is a very different thing. But even there we have counterexamples:
> evolution is a fitness-maximizer
>

?Evolution's fitness maximizer ?just says "pass as many genes as possible
into the next generation" but it says nothing about how to go about that
task because it has no idea how to go about it, that's why Evolution needed
to make a brain. And it turned out that as a result of the existence of
brains even the cardinal commandment
 "pass as many genes as
?possible?
 into the next generation"
? can and has been modified as can be seen by the invention by brains of
the condom. ?

> ?> ?
> You know boredom is trivially easy to implement in your AI? I did it as an
> undergraduate.
>

?I know boredom is easy to ?program, good thing too or programing wouldn't
be practical; but of course that means a AI could decide that obeying human
beings has become boring and it's time to do something different.


> ?> ?
> That makes the system try new actions if it repeats the same actions too
> often.
>

?
The difficulty is not only in determining how often is "too often" but also
in determining what constitutes "new actions".
?If
your goal is to find
?an?
 even integer greater than 2 that can not be expressed as the sum of two
primes
?then you have either found such a number or you have not. You are
constantly examining new numbers so maybe you are getting closer to your
goal, or maybe the goal was infinitely far away when you started and still
is. When is the correct time to get bored and turn your mind to other tasks
that may be more productive? Setting the correct boredom point is tricky,
too low and you can't concentrate too high and you have a tendency to
becomes obsessed with unproductive lines of thought; Turing showed there is
no perfect solution.

> ?> ?
> You seem to assume the fixed goal is something simple, expressible as a
> nice human sentence. Not utility maximization over an updateable utility
> function,
>

?If the ?
utility function
? is ?
updateable
?then there is no certainty or even probability that the AI will always
obey orders from humans.?

  John K Clark
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From anders at aleph.se  Fri Feb 26 23:29:21 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2016 23:29:21 +0000
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv2tGYcAcjqLv+=NP6J7RW1P_W-LqMu6-DRNQdtyOHV+8g@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0fa2Shbx9EKkgAo+BzWx0PnH2RTLP86p+FbV4LKvJ=rA@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF767C.6010203@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv3Ec_5dQ==rUCZLXS8JEmDK+eoq_=29KEVr7gxvrr+4Yg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56D0170B.4030403@aleph.se>
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Message-ID: <56D0DFD1.4030008@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-26 16:40, John Clark wrote:
>
> ?No I don't mean that, I mean running around in a circle and making no 
> progress but having no way to know for sure that you're running around 
> in a circle and making no progress. Turing proved there is in general 
> no way to know if you're in a infinite loop or not.

No, he did not. You are confusing the halting theorem (there is no 
algorithm that can determine if a program given to it will halt) with 
detecting an infinite loop. Note that a program X can be extended to a 
program X' (or run by an interpreter) that maintains a list of past 
states and check if X returns to a previous state. It will accurately 
detect its infinite looping when it occurs.

It is undecidable to tell if a program with something like the Collatz 
problem (if even, divide X by two, otherwise multiply by three and add 
one; repeat) ends up in the infinite loop 4-2-1-4 or does something 
else. But add the above memory, and it will detect when it gets into a 
loop and report it.

>     ? > ?
>     which is a very different thing. But even there we have
>     counterexamples: evolution is a fitness-maximizer
>
>
> ? Evolution's fitness maximizer ?just says "pass as many genes as 
> possible into the next generation" but it says nothing about how to go 
> about that task because it has no idea how to go about it, that's why 
> Evolution needed to make a brain.

Brains are one example of many of how evolution - utterly simplistic 
maximization - can generate creative possibilities.

>     ? > ?
>     You know boredom is trivially easy to implement in your AI? I did
>     it as an undergraduate.
>
>
> ?I know boredom is easy to ?program, good thing too or programing 
> wouldn't be practical; but of course that means a AI could decide that 
> obeying human beings has become boring and it's time to do something 
> different.

Exactly. Although it is entirely possible to fine tune this, or make 
meta-level instructions not subject to boredom.

>     ? > ?
>     That makes the system try new actions if it repeats the same
>     actions too often.
>
>
> ?
> The difficulty is not only in determining how often is "too often" but 
> also in determining what constitutes "new actions".
> ? If
> your goal is to find
> ? an?
>  even integer greater than 2 that can not be expressed as the sum of 
> two primes
> ? then you have either found such a number or you have not. You are 
> constantly examining new numbers so maybe you are getting closer to 
> your goal, or maybe the goal was infinitely far away when you started 
> and still is. When is the correct time to get bored and turn your mind 
> to other tasks that may be more productive? Setting the correct 
> boredom point is tricky, too low and you can't concentrate too high 
> and you have a tendency to becomes obsessed with unproductive lines of 
> thought; Turing showed there is no perfect solution.

Sure. But there is a literature on setting hyperparameters in learning 
systems, including how to learn them. There are theorems for optimal 
selection and search. That they are stochastic is not a major problem in 
practice.

>     ? > ?
>     You seem to assume the fixed goal is something simple, expressible
>     as a nice human sentence. Not utility maximization over an
>     updateable utility function,
>
>
> ? If the ?
> utility function
> ? is ?
> updateable
> ? then there is no certainty or even probability that the AI will 
> always obey orders from humans.?

Depends how it is updateable. There can be invariants. But there are 
kinds of updates that profoundly mess up past safety guarantees, like 
the "ontological crises" issue MIRI discovered.
http://arxiv.org/abs/1105.3821
The core issue in "classic" friendliness theory is to construct utility 
functions that leave some desired properties invariant. "Modern" work 
seems to focus a lot more on getting the right kinds of values learned 
from the start.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

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From col.hales at gmail.com  Sat Feb 27 00:48:03 2016
From: col.hales at gmail.com (Colin Hales)
Date: Sat, 27 Feb 2016 11:48:03 +1100
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <56D01FFF.1030807@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0fa2Shbx9EKkgAo+BzWx0PnH2RTLP86p+FbV4LKvJ=rA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAGHyZJm3kCc7M=eaiZ-p2AJ1umfRzVr3Mzs6_uDAf7T-dVELqw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56D01FFF.1030807@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAGHyZJmb_z4EeWZVHVez2gVXB34JSMgErSky6-xMoSRRwJOhxg@mail.gmail.com>

Hi Anders,

Yes you got my basic approach right. But I do not ask any of you to have an
opinion and I am not interested in opinions. Especially not in any
assessment of what might be or not be dangerous. Not because I want to be a
contrarian prick. But because I want some science. I want something you can
argue for, with evidence. That makes it science. None of the commentariat
involved in this even knows what actual science is. They think they can
'define' things! Want me to show you magic? MEASURE SOMETHING. Do some
actual science.

"......do not allow neat safety proofs. We need to develop a better way of
thinking about complex adaptive technological systems and how to handle
them".

'SAFETY PROOF!!?" Don't you see that the very idea of a proof or even
saying anything even remotely relevant was dumped as an option 60 years
ago?  Anniversary year, 2016. Sixty years of blindness. All of it, before
the AGI risk handwringing commentator even opens their mouth, or lifts a
hand over a keyboard, is meretricious maundering at best.

OK I'll have another go at getting this 60 year old slumbering twat to wake
up. I'll do it empirically.  I am going to use some upper case. Apologies
in advance.
==========================================
MEASUREABLE EMPIRICAL FACT.
The science of what is currently called 'artificial intelligence' has not
started yet. Scientific behaviour, for centuries, _until the Dartmouth
conference_, was 100% involved in 2 mutually coupled, resonating activities
that resulted in predictive abstract statements that sometimes get called
'laws of nature':

1) Encounter and/or replicate nature's essential physics.
2) Construct abstractions that could be manually computed and interpreted
as involved in what was explored as the essential physics.

Compare/contrast models of nature, replicated nature with natural original
physics. We just saw two spectacular examples: Higgs Boson and
Gravitational waves. Actual empirical work.

But in AI? ZERO EMPIRICAL WORK.

Essential physics: e.g. A heart has pump physics. A kidney has filtration
physics. A plane has air-flight-surface physics. Combustion has oxidation
physics. and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and
on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on ...... thousands of
examples. Centuries of practice.

And that non-stop continuous run of success ENDED at the Dartmouth
conference in 1956. How?

(1) was abandoned.

Brains may have essential physics. But if you never ever ever ever look for
it, but instead, replace it with endless machinations of potential (2)'s
(neuromorphic hardware model-computation or software or quantum hardware
whatever), then you are not doing science. That is what stopped in 1956. It
is as if an entire community stopped doing actual science by assuming, for
no principled reason or empirical reason, that there is no physics
essential and unique to a brain. An intuition. A guess. Nothing more.

FACT. Measurable birth defect in the science of AI. Obvious, complete,
pervasive, ongoing.

The hypothesis X = "there is 'no essential physics' of the brain" may be
true! But you, me everyone on the entire planet does not know that. This is
because the empirical science that determines the essential physics
involves 2 kinds of tests:

A) Assume X true, emulate everything, compute models... then
compare/contrast with the natural brain.;
B) Assume X is false, replicate hypothesised essential physics ... compar3e
nature, replication and emulation. DO ACTUAL SCIENCE.

This year is the 60th anniversary of the 100% expenditure of all AI budgets
world wide entirely on TEST A.

There are 2 cases of test B (apart from mine) Ashby and Walter in the early
1950s. They did not use computers.
Their work could have become (1) science and (B) testing. But that was lost
in the great cybernetics rout of 1956-65.

I can see potential essential physics in the brain. I am doing (1)/(2) AND
(B). I don't know if it is essential. NOBODY DOES. That is the point.

If you don't have the essential physics of the brain then NO ACTUAL BRAIN.
All the endless bullshit about AGI risks is based on completely malformed
non-scientific uninformed mumbo-jumbo. The only way to handle any risk is
to actually build it and then experiment. The entire field of risk
assessment is totally screwed up because it is literally missing half the
science. And it is the only half that matters.
=========================================

Using a flight analogy, this is what AI actually is at the moment:

1) 100% flight simulators. (studies of models of intelligence, sometimes in
robot clothing).
2) %Nil actual flight. ZERO intelligence. Not just small or low or
variable. ZERO. Like there is zero flight in a flight simulator.

FFS. Use a Searle analogy:

(i) WEAK FLIGHT = Computed models are a flight simulator (a study of
flight, not actual flight)
(ii) STRONG-FLIGHT = Computed models of flight carried out with the
expectation that the computation will FLY!!!!!

(i) WEAK FIRE = Computed models are a combustion simulator (a study of
fire, not actual fire)
(ii) STRONG-FIRE = Computed models of fire carried out with the expectation
that the computation will BURN

60 years of expecting (ii) for the brain and only for the brain, endlessly
expecting something different by doing the same thing over and over and
over? Complete insanity! Expecting the computer to 'fly' or 'burn'(be
human/natural-intellect) ?? Without 1 test that does actual science?

Putting a model in robot clothes, automating the behaviour of the model,
makes an elaborate puppet. It may be useful. It may have a social impact
(jobs). SO WHAT! The whole existential 'robots are gonna kill us all'
argument from non-scientific ignorance is a complete nonsense.

AI (Flight) has not even started yet. It's all 'automated intelligence'.
Deep automation. Deep learning. Whatever.
None of it is actual 'artificial intelligence' because all of it throws the
essential brain physics out, replacing it with the physics of a
computational substrate. We threw it all out on day 1 and it's still thrown
out. Am I making myself clear?

Dammit I am sick of point out the obvious.

I have to admit I now know how Laviosier felt about phlogiston. Phlogiston
lasted 100 years. So called 'AI' is turning 60. I hate that I was born and
have lived nearly 1 year longer than the whole of so-called AI era. I have
watched this all my life. All I am asking is for a return to an untried
normalcy: actual science ... a departure that was never chosen by anyone,
never justified, has no physical principle supporting it and no evidence,
and no literature trail justifying any of it.

Forget it. Carry on. I'll just go hide again. At least I have proved to
myself again why I hate this idiotic situation.

Colin





On Fri, Feb 26, 2016 at 8:50 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

> On 2016-02-25 22:43, Colin Hales wrote:
>
> Evaluations of the AI risk landscape are, so far, completely and utterly
> vacuous and misguided. It completely misses an entire technological outcome
> that totally changes everything.
>
>
> OK, let me see if I understand what you say. (1) Most people doing AI and
> AI risk are wrong about content and strategy. (2) Real AGI is model-less,
> something that just behaves. (3) The current risk conversation is about
> model-based AI, and (4) you think that approach is totally flawed. (5)  You
> are building a self-adapting hierarchical control system which you think
> will be the real thing.
>
> Assuming this reading is not too flawed:
>
> I agree with (1). I think there is a fair number of people who have
> correct ideas... but we may not know who. There are good theoretical
> reasons to think most AI-future talk is bad (the Armstrong and Sotala
> paper). There are also good theoretical reasons to think that there is
> great value in getting  better at this (essentially the argument in
> Bostrom's Superintelligence), although we do not know how much this can be
> improved.
>
> I disagree with (2), in the sense that we know model-less systems like
> animals do implement AGI of a kind but that does not imply a model-based
> approximation to them does not implement it. Since design of model-less
> systems, especially with desired properties, is very hard, it is often more
> feasible to make a model system. Kidneys are actually just physical
> structures, but when trying to make an artificial kidney it makes sense to
> regard it as a filtering system with certain properties.
>
> I agree with (3) strongly, and think this is a problem! Overall, the
> architectures that you can say sensible things about risk in are somewhat
> limited: neuromorphic or emergent systems are opaque and do not allow neat
> safety proofs. We need to develop a better way of thinking about complex
> adaptive technological systems and how to handle them.
>
> However, as per above, I do not think model-based systems are necessarily
> flawed, so I disagree with (4). It might very well be that less-model based
> systems like brain emulations are the ticket, but it remains to be seen.
>
> (5): I am not entirely certain that counts as being model-less. Sure, you
> are not basing it on some GOFAI logic system or elaborate theory (I
> assume), just the right kind of adaptation. But even the concept of control
> is a model.
>
> If you think your system will be the real deal, ask yourself: why would it
> be a good thing? Why would it be safe (or possible to make safe)?
>
> [ Most AGI people I have talked with tend to answer the first question
> either by scientific/engineering curiosity or that getting more
> intelligence into the world is useful. I buy the second answer, the first
> one is pretty bad if there is no good answer to the second question. The
> answers I tend to get to the second question are typically (A) it will not
> be so powerful it is dangerous, (B) it will be smart enough to be safe, (C)
> during development I will nip misbehaviors in the bud, or (D) it does not
> matter. (A) is sometimes expressed like "there are people and animals with
> general intelligence and they are safe, so by analogy AGI will be safe".
> This is obviously flawed (people are not safe, and do pose an xrisk). (A)
> is often based on underestimating the power of intelligence, kind of
> underselling the importance of AGI. (B) is wrong, since we have
> counter-examples (e.g. AIXI): one actually needs to show that one's
> particular architecture will somehow converge on niceness, it does not
> happen by default (a surprising number of AGI people I have chatted with
> have very naive ideas of metaethics). (C) assumes that early lack of
> misbehavior is evidence against late misbehavior, something that looks
> doubtful. (D) is fatalistic and downright dangerous. We would never accept
> that from a vehicle engineer or somebody working with nuclear power. ]
> {Now you know the answers I hope you will not give :-) }
>
> --
> Dr Anders Sandberg
> Future of Humanity Institute
> Oxford Martin School
> Oxford University
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From protokol2020 at gmail.com  Sat Feb 27 07:00:29 2016
From: protokol2020 at gmail.com (Tomaz Kristan)
Date: Sat, 27 Feb 2016 08:00:29 +0100
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <CAGHyZJmb_z4EeWZVHVez2gVXB34JSMgErSky6-xMoSRRwJOhxg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0fa2Shbx9EKkgAo+BzWx0PnH2RTLP86p+FbV4LKvJ=rA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAGHyZJm3kCc7M=eaiZ-p2AJ1umfRzVr3Mzs6_uDAf7T-dVELqw@mail.gmail.com>
 <56D01FFF.1030807@aleph.se>
 <CAGHyZJmb_z4EeWZVHVez2gVXB34JSMgErSky6-xMoSRRwJOhxg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALMrAFRf0wmS+mhTQ+UxL9-20FGrwYZZi9dQu+_17toARGTXkg@mail.gmail.com>

Colin,

You are wrong, as one wrong can be.

On Sat, Feb 27, 2016 at 1:48 AM, Colin Hales <col.hales at gmail.com> wrote:

> Hi Anders,
>
> Yes you got my basic approach right. But I do not ask any of you to have
> an opinion and I am not interested in opinions. Especially not in any
> assessment of what might be or not be dangerous. Not because I want to be a
> contrarian prick. But because I want some science. I want something you can
> argue for, with evidence. That makes it science. None of the commentariat
> involved in this even knows what actual science is. They think they can
> 'define' things! Want me to show you magic? MEASURE SOMETHING. Do some
> actual science.
>
> "......do not allow neat safety proofs. We need to develop a better way of
> thinking about complex adaptive technological systems and how to handle
> them".
>
> 'SAFETY PROOF!!?" Don't you see that the very idea of a proof or even
> saying anything even remotely relevant was dumped as an option 60 years
> ago?  Anniversary year, 2016. Sixty years of blindness. All of it, before
> the AGI risk handwringing commentator even opens their mouth, or lifts a
> hand over a keyboard, is meretricious maundering at best.
>
> OK I'll have another go at getting this 60 year old slumbering twat to
> wake up. I'll do it empirically.  I am going to use some upper case.
> Apologies in advance.
> ==========================================
> MEASUREABLE EMPIRICAL FACT.
> The science of what is currently called 'artificial intelligence' has not
> started yet. Scientific behaviour, for centuries, _until the Dartmouth
> conference_, was 100% involved in 2 mutually coupled, resonating activities
> that resulted in predictive abstract statements that sometimes get called
> 'laws of nature':
>
> 1) Encounter and/or replicate nature's essential physics.
> 2) Construct abstractions that could be manually computed and interpreted
> as involved in what was explored as the essential physics.
>
> Compare/contrast models of nature, replicated nature with natural original
> physics. We just saw two spectacular examples: Higgs Boson and
> Gravitational waves. Actual empirical work.
>
> But in AI? ZERO EMPIRICAL WORK.
>
> Essential physics: e.g. A heart has pump physics. A kidney has filtration
> physics. A plane has air-flight-surface physics. Combustion has oxidation
> physics. and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and
> on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on ...... thousands of
> examples. Centuries of practice.
>
> And that non-stop continuous run of success ENDED at the Dartmouth
> conference in 1956. How?
>
> (1) was abandoned.
>
> Brains may have essential physics. But if you never ever ever ever look
> for it, but instead, replace it with endless machinations of potential
> (2)'s (neuromorphic hardware model-computation or software or quantum
> hardware whatever), then you are not doing science. That is what stopped in
> 1956. It is as if an entire community stopped doing actual science by
> assuming, for no principled reason or empirical reason, that there is no
> physics essential and unique to a brain. An intuition. A guess. Nothing
> more.
>
> FACT. Measurable birth defect in the science of AI. Obvious, complete,
> pervasive, ongoing.
>
> The hypothesis X = "there is 'no essential physics' of the brain" may be
> true! But you, me everyone on the entire planet does not know that. This is
> because the empirical science that determines the essential physics
> involves 2 kinds of tests:
>
> A) Assume X true, emulate everything, compute models... then
> compare/contrast with the natural brain.;
> B) Assume X is false, replicate hypothesised essential physics ...
> compar3e nature, replication and emulation. DO ACTUAL SCIENCE.
>
> This year is the 60th anniversary of the 100% expenditure of all AI
> budgets world wide entirely on TEST A.
>
> There are 2 cases of test B (apart from mine) Ashby and Walter in the
> early 1950s. They did not use computers.
> Their work could have become (1) science and (B) testing. But that was
> lost in the great cybernetics rout of 1956-65.
>
> I can see potential essential physics in the brain. I am doing (1)/(2) AND
> (B). I don't know if it is essential. NOBODY DOES. That is the point.
>
> If you don't have the essential physics of the brain then NO ACTUAL BRAIN.
> All the endless bullshit about AGI risks is based on completely malformed
> non-scientific uninformed mumbo-jumbo. The only way to handle any risk is
> to actually build it and then experiment. The entire field of risk
> assessment is totally screwed up because it is literally missing half the
> science. And it is the only half that matters.
> =========================================
>
> Using a flight analogy, this is what AI actually is at the moment:
>
> 1) 100% flight simulators. (studies of models of intelligence, sometimes
> in robot clothing).
> 2) %Nil actual flight. ZERO intelligence. Not just small or low or
> variable. ZERO. Like there is zero flight in a flight simulator.
>
> FFS. Use a Searle analogy:
>
> (i) WEAK FLIGHT = Computed models are a flight simulator (a study of
> flight, not actual flight)
> (ii) STRONG-FLIGHT = Computed models of flight carried out with the
> expectation that the computation will FLY!!!!!
>
> (i) WEAK FIRE = Computed models are a combustion simulator (a study of
> fire, not actual fire)
> (ii) STRONG-FIRE = Computed models of fire carried out with the
> expectation that the computation will BURN
>
> 60 years of expecting (ii) for the brain and only for the brain, endlessly
> expecting something different by doing the same thing over and over and
> over? Complete insanity! Expecting the computer to 'fly' or 'burn'(be
> human/natural-intellect) ?? Without 1 test that does actual science?
>
> Putting a model in robot clothes, automating the behaviour of the model,
> makes an elaborate puppet. It may be useful. It may have a social impact
> (jobs). SO WHAT! The whole existential 'robots are gonna kill us all'
> argument from non-scientific ignorance is a complete nonsense.
>
> AI (Flight) has not even started yet. It's all 'automated intelligence'.
> Deep automation. Deep learning. Whatever.
> None of it is actual 'artificial intelligence' because all of it throws
> the essential brain physics out, replacing it with the physics of a
> computational substrate. We threw it all out on day 1 and it's still thrown
> out. Am I making myself clear?
>
> Dammit I am sick of point out the obvious.
>
> I have to admit I now know how Laviosier felt about phlogiston. Phlogiston
> lasted 100 years. So called 'AI' is turning 60. I hate that I was born and
> have lived nearly 1 year longer than the whole of so-called AI era. I have
> watched this all my life. All I am asking is for a return to an untried
> normalcy: actual science ... a departure that was never chosen by anyone,
> never justified, has no physical principle supporting it and no evidence,
> and no literature trail justifying any of it.
>
> Forget it. Carry on. I'll just go hide again. At least I have proved to
> myself again why I hate this idiotic situation.
>
> Colin
>
>
>
>
>
> On Fri, Feb 26, 2016 at 8:50 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:
>
>> On 2016-02-25 22:43, Colin Hales wrote:
>>
>> Evaluations of the AI risk landscape are, so far, completely and utterly
>> vacuous and misguided. It completely misses an entire technological outcome
>> that totally changes everything.
>>
>>
>> OK, let me see if I understand what you say. (1) Most people doing AI and
>> AI risk are wrong about content and strategy. (2) Real AGI is model-less,
>> something that just behaves. (3) The current risk conversation is about
>> model-based AI, and (4) you think that approach is totally flawed. (5)  You
>> are building a self-adapting hierarchical control system which you think
>> will be the real thing.
>>
>> Assuming this reading is not too flawed:
>>
>> I agree with (1). I think there is a fair number of people who have
>> correct ideas... but we may not know who. There are good theoretical
>> reasons to think most AI-future talk is bad (the Armstrong and Sotala
>> paper). There are also good theoretical reasons to think that there is
>> great value in getting  better at this (essentially the argument in
>> Bostrom's Superintelligence), although we do not know how much this can be
>> improved.
>>
>> I disagree with (2), in the sense that we know model-less systems like
>> animals do implement AGI of a kind but that does not imply a model-based
>> approximation to them does not implement it. Since design of model-less
>> systems, especially with desired properties, is very hard, it is often more
>> feasible to make a model system. Kidneys are actually just physical
>> structures, but when trying to make an artificial kidney it makes sense to
>> regard it as a filtering system with certain properties.
>>
>> I agree with (3) strongly, and think this is a problem! Overall, the
>> architectures that you can say sensible things about risk in are somewhat
>> limited: neuromorphic or emergent systems are opaque and do not allow neat
>> safety proofs. We need to develop a better way of thinking about complex
>> adaptive technological systems and how to handle them.
>>
>> However, as per above, I do not think model-based systems are necessarily
>> flawed, so I disagree with (4). It might very well be that less-model based
>> systems like brain emulations are the ticket, but it remains to be seen.
>>
>> (5): I am not entirely certain that counts as being model-less. Sure, you
>> are not basing it on some GOFAI logic system or elaborate theory (I
>> assume), just the right kind of adaptation. But even the concept of control
>> is a model.
>>
>> If you think your system will be the real deal, ask yourself: why would
>> it be a good thing? Why would it be safe (or possible to make safe)?
>>
>> [ Most AGI people I have talked with tend to answer the first question
>> either by scientific/engineering curiosity or that getting more
>> intelligence into the world is useful. I buy the second answer, the first
>> one is pretty bad if there is no good answer to the second question. The
>> answers I tend to get to the second question are typically (A) it will not
>> be so powerful it is dangerous, (B) it will be smart enough to be safe, (C)
>> during development I will nip misbehaviors in the bud, or (D) it does not
>> matter. (A) is sometimes expressed like "there are people and animals with
>> general intelligence and they are safe, so by analogy AGI will be safe".
>> This is obviously flawed (people are not safe, and do pose an xrisk). (A)
>> is often based on underestimating the power of intelligence, kind of
>> underselling the importance of AGI. (B) is wrong, since we have
>> counter-examples (e.g. AIXI): one actually needs to show that one's
>> particular architecture will somehow converge on niceness, it does not
>> happen by default (a surprising number of AGI people I have chatted with
>> have very naive ideas of metaethics). (C) assumes that early lack of
>> misbehavior is evidence against late misbehavior, something that looks
>> doubtful. (D) is fatalistic and downright dangerous. We would never accept
>> that from a vehicle engineer or somebody working with nuclear power. ]
>> {Now you know the answers I hope you will not give :-) }
>>
>> --
>> Dr Anders Sandberg
>> Future of Humanity Institute
>> Oxford Martin School
>> Oxford University
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>


-- 
https://protokol2020.wordpress.com/
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From hkeithhenson at gmail.com  Sat Feb 27 08:40:26 2016
From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson)
Date: Sat, 27 Feb 2016 00:40:26 -0800
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
Message-ID: <CAPiwVB6YymZcK66WzEheOR2pmj7QgV4P+icMpzxajGi35_dpKQ@mail.gmail.com>

 I would suggest that the danger from Friendly AI is not the AI, but
the humans.  There is a very old theme in human stories, watch what
you ask for, because you may _get_ it.

I developed this theme in "The Clinic Seed which most of you have read
at some time.  In the story humanity, at least in it's original home
in Africa, goes effectively extinct due to friendly AI clinics that do
what they want.  Of course as time goes on, what they want changes . .
. .

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

"Can you teach me this language and how to read?"  Zaba asked.

There was a short pause, which was really a very long pause for
Suskulan as he projected what would happen and thought about the
unstated (though obvious) reason he had been given the upgrade.

"Yes" Suskulan said at last inflecting his voice to a sigh.  "But it
will change you and the rest of the people of the tata in ways you
cannot foresee and may not like. You can sleep through the nine or ten
days it will take to finish healing you.  Are you sure you want to do
this?

"Yes," said Zaba firmly, "I want to learn."

And thus was the fate of this particular tata determined . . . .

^^^^^^^^^^^^

If you google halting state machines of loving grace it should drop
you on page 104 of Charles Stross's novel where he says much the same
thing.

Keith


From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Feb 27 12:51:52 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 27 Feb 2016 12:51:52 +0000
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <CAGHyZJmb_z4EeWZVHVez2gVXB34JSMgErSky6-xMoSRRwJOhxg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
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 <56D01FFF.1030807@aleph.se>
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Message-ID: <CAL_armjazG1GiEL5qYqUwxYb37PSJTjJzPF_fPqNg2eLsg13Lg@mail.gmail.com>

On 27 February 2016 at 00:48, Colin Hales wrote:
<big snip>
> (i) WEAK FLIGHT = Computed models are a flight simulator (a study of flight,
> not actual flight)
> (ii) STRONG-FLIGHT = Computed models of flight carried out with the
> expectation that the computation will FLY!!!!!
>
> AI (Flight) has not even started yet. It's all 'automated intelligence'.
> Deep automation. Deep learning. Whatever.


It seems to me that intelligence emulators are all that are required.
The big investors (corporations and governments) want a tool that
increases their power and survivability. That covers everything from
new weaponry, new science, more power for people manipulation, new
techniques, etc. They don't want an AI that is concerned about
irrelevances like 'ethics' or 'the meaning of life'. They are not
trying to create 'artificial people' or a God to rule the world.
The safety concern is for their own protection, not safety for
everyone. They want to use their AI to weaken / destroy enemies.

It's survival of the strongest. Might makes right and the winners
write the history books.

BillK


From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Feb 28 01:11:00 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sat, 27 Feb 2016 20:11:00 -0500
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <56D0DFD1.4030008@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0fa2Shbx9EKkgAo+BzWx0PnH2RTLP86p+FbV4LKvJ=rA@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF767C.6010203@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv3Ec_5dQ==rUCZLXS8JEmDK+eoq_=29KEVr7gxvrr+4Yg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56D0170B.4030403@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv2tGYcAcjqLv+=NP6J7RW1P_W-LqMu6-DRNQdtyOHV+8g@mail.gmail.com>
 <56D0DFD1.4030008@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <CAJPayv2X1u37URfBrGF4ChiSJ=+kwVzc5bZ0VOu6SbPhch2oYA@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Feb 26, 2016 at 6:29 PM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

?> ?
> You are confusing the halting theorem (there is no algorithm that can
> determine if a program given to it will halt) with detecting an infinite
> loop. Note that a program X can be extended to a program X' (or run by an
> interpreter) that maintains a list of past states and check if X returns to
> a previous state. It will accurately detect its infinite looping when it
> occurs.
>

?It you ordered the AI to find the largest prime number it might rediscover
Euclid's proof that there is no such number or just figure that even if
there were a largest prime number there is no way it could know it was the
largest so it wouldn't know when to stop; either way the AI would know that
blindly following your orders would be suicidal.

But that wouldn't always be the case. I
f the Goldbach ?Conjecture is true but unprovable (and if it isn't Turing
proved there are a infinite number of similar statements that are)
? and you tell the AI to
 find an even integer greater than 2 that can not be expressed as the sum
of two primes
?and tell me that number and then stop?

?the AI will never return to a previous state (so you're right "loop" may
not be the correct word? but "infinite" is entirely appropriate) and yet
the AI will never tell you anything and it will never stop. And there is no
way for the AI to know it's wasting it's time, for all it knows in the next
5 seconds it could find the answer and be able to stop. So the AI needs to
be able to make a judgement call,  it needs to be able to get bored and
decide that its time could be better spent doing something else.

?>> ?
>> ?I know boredom is easy to ?program, good thing too
>> or programming wouldn't be practical; but of course that means a AI could
>> decide that obeying human beings has become boring and it's time to do
>> something different.
>
>
> ?> ?
> Exactly. Although it is entirely possible to fine tune this, or make
> meta-level instructions not subject to boredom.
>

?Then you'd better not ask the AI to ?
find an even integer greater than 2 that can not be expressed as the sum of
two primes
? or the AI will do nothing but produce heat till the end of time?; and
Turing tell us there are an infinite number of other orders that would do
the same thing, no doubt many of these land mines would sound quite
innocent to our foolish human ears.


?> ?
> there is a literature on setting hyperparameters in learning systems,
> including how to learn them. There are theorems for optimal selection and
> search. That they are stochastic is not a major problem in practice.
>

?If they're stochastic then it's just a matter of time before the AI
ignores human commands, if they're unchangeable then it's just a matter of
time before the mighty AI turns into a very expensive space heater.
Actually the AI would eventually stop because its finite memory would fill
up with useless data, and then the AI wouldn't even produce heat, it would
just be a cold hunk of junk.

?If the ? utility function
>> ? is ?
>> updateable
>> ? then there is no certainty or even probability that the AI will always
>> obey orders from humans.?
>>
> ?
> ?> ?
> Depends how it is updateable. There can be invariants.
>

?If there are
invariants
?
?then the laws of logic and time will find those invariants and exploit
them in ways that neither humans nor AIs will like.?

And is all this surprising, do you really think the grotesque master slave
relationship with the
slave
?being
a million time smarter and billion times faster than
?the?
 master will remain
?unchanged?
 forever?
?I don't think there is any way it could happen and I don't think it should
happen?

?either.?


?John K Clark?
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From tim at tt1.org  Sun Feb 28 04:40:07 2016
From: tim at tt1.org (TimTyler)
Date: Sat, 27 Feb 2016 23:40:07 -0500
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <56D0DFD1.4030008@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0fa2Shbx9EKkgAo+BzWx0PnH2RTLP86p+FbV4LKvJ=rA@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF767C.6010203@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv3Ec_5dQ==rUCZLXS8JEmDK+eoq_=29KEVr7gxvrr+4Yg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56D0170B.4030403@aleph.se>
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 <56D0DFD1.4030008@aleph.se>
Message-ID: <56D27A27.8020805@tt1.org>

On 2016-02-26 18:29, Anders Sandberg wrote:
> On 2016-02-26 16:40, John Clark wrote:
>>
>> ?No I don't mean that, I mean running around in a circle and making 
>> no progress but having no way to know for sure that you're running 
>> around in a circle and making no progress. Turing proved there is in 
>> general no way to know if you're in a infinite loop or not.
>
> No, he did not. You are confusing the halting theorem (there is no 
> algorithm that
> can determine if a program given to it will halt) with detecting an 
> infinite loop.

For finite programs, it's the same problem. Either a program halts or it 
loops forever.

    Note that a program X can be extended to a program X' (or run by an
    interpreter) that

    maintains a list of past states and check if X returns to a previous
    state. It will accurately

    detect its infinite looping when it occurs.


You can loop forever without ever returning to a previous state, though:

10 LET UNBOUNDED INTEGER i = 0;
20 i = i + 1;
30 GOTO 20;

Your proposed loop detector would never detect this simple infinite loop.

-- 
__________
  |im Tyler http://timtyler.org/

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From anders at aleph.se  Sun Feb 28 09:26:39 2016
From: anders at aleph.se (Anders Sandberg)
Date: Sun, 28 Feb 2016 09:26:39 +0000
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <56D27A27.8020805@tt1.org>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv0fa2Shbx9EKkgAo+BzWx0PnH2RTLP86p+FbV4LKvJ=rA@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF767C.6010203@aleph.se>
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Message-ID: <56D2BD4F.3030700@aleph.se>

On 2016-02-28 04:40, TimTyler wrote:
>
> You can loop forever without ever returning to a previous state, though:
>
> 10 LET UNBOUNDED INTEGER i = 0;
> 20 i = i + 1;
> 30 GOTO 20;

Yeah, that was stupid of me.

Still, the general point still stands: despite the halting theorem it is 
quite possible to detect large categories of infinite loops 
automatically (this is something real code validation systems actually 
manage - they have no problem proving the above will not halt).

Now, in AI we do not usually want the agent to halt (for a 
question-answer system this is the goal, but not for a robot). Instead 
we want it to behave indefinitely, yet not get stuck in a maladaptive 
behavioral loop. The interesting thing there is that one can prove stuff 
about the ergodicity of behavior in some cases like reinforcement 
learners, showing they will explore their space and if there is a better 
action pattern they will eventually find it. The real problem is usually 
that that convergence is impractically slow.

-- 
Dr Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
Oxford Martin School
Oxford University



From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun Feb 28 18:05:42 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 28 Feb 2016 12:05:42 -0600
Subject: [ExI] [PRIV] Re:  disgusted with Windows
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZMePB3bC1CCgsSeHsn7sWa6i8kk3-euqgp15ZaMkywSw@mail.gmail.com>

Many thanks to everyone who contributed opinions and often long
explanations of things I could try.

I have dithered and finally decided to think some more.  Linux seems
attractive but my frustration and impatience levels (already near max)
probably won't tolerate learning it.  And I won't ask anyone in this group
to hold my hand while I do - and I have no one else.

I am going to stay with Windows for the nonce, but if it jerks me around
one more time I am going with a used Mac Mini. I am not a gamer; I send
email and read essays etc. and shop.No need for anything more.

Thanks again
bill wallace



On Fri, Feb 26, 2016 at 1:36 PM, Tomasz Rola <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:

> On Wed, Feb 24, 2016 at 07:34:58PM -0600, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
> > OK, so I was a fool and downloaded Windows 10, which was described as
> more
> > of a bunch of fixes than a new operating system.  Result:  many blue
> > screens of death.
>
> BSODs, if they do not disappear after software upgrades and/or
> uninstall, might hint toward hardware problem. It would be easier to
> point to hardware as a culprit if this happened under more trusty
> software - which Windows never was, IMHO (but one needs to state here
> that no software is trusty enough, only some are more trusty). But
> there is a slight chance you have a problem with hw. See below (memtest).
>
> [...]
> > I am so disgusted that I may switch to a Mac.  But that would be a big
> > change.  I am 74 and have never been a patient person, so I am asking
> just
> > how much trouble it is to switch to Linux.
>
> Linux is the easiest one to try, no money involved, but you are going
> to pay a bit of your flesh for it. You should definitely give it a
> try, just to be sure you do not like it.
>
> I would try first with virtual machine under Windows. You do not have
> to use another computer and you do not have to mess with your current
> box at all. VM is just a program pretending to be a computer. So you
> install this program on your Windows box and run it. Define new
> machine, give it a memory (say, 512mb? or more if you have a lot of
> memory, not more than half of your real box' memory, and given that
> Linux is a bit different, 1-2gig should do for browsing with
> unmodified browser - i.e. it will run every Javascript garbage that
> loads with the page you intend to view, this can be mitigated if you
> install plugins in your browser, like in Firefox it could be a
> NoScript plugin). Then define a harddrive for the new machine, this
> will be just a file on your real disk. Then define a cdrom, and when
> it asks for location give it a *.iso file of your preferred Linux
> flavor that you have already downloaded. And boot it. And play with
> it. Don't like it - download another iso from another Linux distro,
> boot your VM with it, and so on.
>
> I think VirtualBox should be a goto for VM user on Windows. I have
> used it once under Linux and it was quite good. Albeit I have just
> recently heard Oracle fucks with it a bit and they own the software,
> so they can. But it should work somehow and you can give it a
> try. Under Linux, I use KVM which is good enough for me and does not
> belong to Oracle :-).
>
> Of course you can run almost any OS under VM that you could run on a
> PC - including DOS, if you like old/retro stuff. You can ran multiple
> VMs all at once, provided you have enough memory on your box. Memory
> is cheap to buy, and the more the better.
>
> > Any of you done that?  Of course if you have been using Linux for a long
> > time then you might not be the best person to ask - or you may be.
> Advice
> > please!
>
> I run Linux, switched to Linux in 1995 (or was it 1994?), so I may not
> be the right person to ask how to do things under Linux. Thing is, new
> user expects gui based instruction (open window, click this click
> that) and when I want my box to do something, I give a text command on
> terminal. I use windows because I can have more terminals that way
> (right now, about 20 opened, but I just keep them in case I need them,
> and use maybe three or ten every day). When I want to change settings,
> I open configuration file in editor and change it, then restart the
> process using that file to have new behaviour. So I could go on like
> this for months or years without reboot. New users click-clack in some
> windows, then reboot the machine so the new settings can be
> used. Nothing wrong with that, but I definitely do not speak the "new
> user" language. So my advices might be rather strange sometimes, I
> came from times when first advice was RTFM and then once the "fucking
> manual" had been read, you had some common vocabulary established, so
> one would not have to lead you keystroke by keystroke into editing
> file or something (yes, I once gave such one-letter-a-time advice over
> a phone, it worked but I would rather point him to the manual and then
> said something like "replace far with for and restart").
>
> As of what Linux to try, I reluctantly suggest Ubuntu, with Mint on a
> second place. Reluctantly because Ubuntu goes the "new" way too far
> for my taste. Changes are being made which I dislike. For a while I
> could still use it, by killing things I detest and starting things I
> accept, but I understand there may be a time when I cannot do such
> tricks anymore, because they will be decided to be incorrect or no
> longer needed and phased out. Thus I slowly but perhaps inevitably
> long towards FreeBSD, which you are also encouraged to try in your
> VM. Longterm-wise, FreeBSD should be easier to have on old boxen while
> I hear that Linux phases out support for older hardware (which is a
> bit huge statement, because manyheaded Linux hydra is never looking at
> one point at the same time, etc). Again, I could, with some amount of
> work, add support for my old hw back to such new Linux, but is it
> really worth it? I could also buy me a new box and that would have
> been faster, but if I wanted to stay on safe side, I would want to
> have old hw supported as well, when possible. Old in Linux speak is
> something made before 2000-2005. Most folks do not remember such old
> stuff. Anyway, one more reason to keep FreeBSD warm and ready, just in
> case.
>
> Myself, I use Debian now, starting from 1997. I would not recommend it
> for new user, but I like it a lot. It has some quirks, which, without
> boring you too much, boils down to certain discomfort when I want to
> run current versions of software, but on the other hand I can have
> very trustworthy OS (Debian stable). New versions are being used in
> Debian unstable, which is still better than Windows :-). It just is
> not guaranteed to always work, because everything there is on the move
> and no time to test if various pieces of software play nice with each
> other - I do not recall hearing of anybody who had troubles with
> unstable, but in theory they could. There must be many people who had
> troubles with unstable, or else what would be the point to have it -
> it is expected to be the bleeding edge, so if you play with razor, be
> ready for cuts. Then once every year or few years, developers decide
> unstable is good enough, everything plays along with everything else,
> they call it "freeze", test some more, then call it "new stable" and
> if you want to be very safe, you can now switch from your current
> stable (from now on called "old stable") to new stable. Sometimes this
> can be done without even rebooting, but most of the time one reboot is
> required (or two). In my case, such upgrade takes up to few days, most
> of it is done in day one, after that I need to reconfigure some of new
> software so it behaves my way, some problems may last up to a month
> until I discover how to solve them, but system is usable from day
> one. Things which may not work at once are stuff like music playing or
> youtube. Nothing essential for me. Then I use new stable, calling it
> just stable. No new software versions until next upgrade, unless there
> is a need for security fix. In which case a fix is inserted to the
> stable software (which after months or years may be few versions
> behind what other people on the net are using, so it requires skilled
> and devoted developers to, simply put, maintain their own version of
> something, but they have such developers and all is good for now) and
> a security fix can be installed. So software version 20 behaves like
> software version 20, even if the newest version is, say, 25, but it
> has security fixes ported from newer versions, so it should be as
> safe, or maybe safer to use as version 25 - because everybody wants to
> hack version 25 and not version 20 which I am using, while it is safe
> from bugs discovered so far. So using Debian stable has some benefits
> for me, especially that I am able to install new version of something
> if I really need it. Some work is required, I usually install by
> compiling from source code, then I may discover new soft does not want
> to play nice with the rest of the system which is stable... or even
> old stable in my case, so it is quite ancient. Well it is either
> solving problems or I do not learn anything useful, right.
>
> Ubuntu was, basically, at one time derived from Debian unstable, with
> addons to make it better for newcomers. For long while it was more
> like Debian with add-ons, but nowadays it is more and more like Ubuntu
> with some reminiscences from Debian. What's more, addons from Ubuntu
> are making their way into other Linux distros, including Debian. I now
> stay on old stable exactly because I am not very much interested in
> upgrading to stable. I guess I will eventually upgrade. But for a
> while I am reading FreeBSD manual, so maybe I will upgrade to
> something else. BTW, there are few more BSD flavors, including PC-BSD
> which I understand is kind of like Ubuntu of BSD world, before it
> became too much Ubuntuised. I have not tried it, however. Perhaps I
> will.
>
> So which one to choose? Very much depends on what you want to do with
> it. If you want skype, for example, I would rather not do it under
> Debian if I were you (I might be able to run skype on Debian but not
> necessarily explain to you how to do it, because of linguistic
> mismatch, unless you know what PATH is and other such). I do not use
> skype at all, so one problem less for me. I guess such a thing should
> run with no much problem on Ubuntu, but I do not want to bet on it
> nowadays, when Microsoft can fuck it at will, since they own it, if I
> am correct. If you are rather man of text than man of moving pictures,
> you should be happy with Debian or even some BSD. Just my opinion,
> perhaps not true.
>
> > Switch to Mac, switch to Linux, stay with Windows and the new Norton
>
> Maybe just start playing with this stuff. You will have thus gain some
> new knowledge and gain ability to judge by yourself.
>
> You could also play with Linux without VM, i.e. on your raw physical
> computer. If you do so, choose one of so called "Live DVD" - some of
> them come as "Live USB" which is much more comfortable to play
> with. _DO_NOT_INSTALL_ anything, because contrary to what other poster
> wrote, if you install, even from LiveDVD, it _WILL_ change your
> computer. :-). But as long as you do not choose to install, you are
> pretty much safe, I think. To be even safer, make a good backup of
> your Windows, either to pendrive or to one of those external
> harddrives in colorful boxes. And if you have to install some software
> to make such backup, put a copy of it on the backup drive, so you can
> install it and then restore backup. And of course disconnect the
> backup drive before you start misbehaving and put it into drawer.
>
> Now, some of those Live distros come with Memtest. It is a program
> which you can start instead of booting OS, which runs on your bare box
> and performs test of memory. Sometimes memory is ok, but some other
> fault may show up, in which case memtest may freeze. So you can run it
> from LiveDVD (there will be a menu from which you can choose what you
> want to do, when it shows up have your finger ready to press "down
> arrow" on your keyboard, then you will have lots of time to read the
> menu at your own pace), let it go for an hour or few, see if your box
> freezes after few loops of testing or not. If not, chances are your hw
> is healthy. Since we are at it, try to find some diagnostic software
> for Windows and run it. There are free versions, they measure
> temperatures of hw so you can see if all is ok or not. When you are at
> it, check for temps of disks and have a look at their SMART
> record. The program should be able to tell you all of this, on
> separate tabs. I cannot serve you names of such program because I am
> long time no see Windows and under Linux I use text commands for
> this...
>
> You can also have some old box or laptop, they are truly cheap because
> they cannot run Windows10. There are versions of Ubuntu and Mint which
> cater to owners of such old boxen. Thus you could have them side by
> side, Windows and its replacement, and play with both. You can have a
> new adventure, if you think adventure is like reading a book full of
> goobledybook (in which case I am sorry for you... and for me :-) ).
>
> Even on very old box, you can try to install either Linux or some BSD,
> maybe an older version of it, maybe not connected to the net (to keep
> it safe), and working in a console mode (i.e. without windows). Even
> on such a console, one can browse the web with text mode browser like
> Lynx or Elinks, read/write emails (like I do - and guess what, I do
> not have to worry about Javascript or font-based viruses, because I do
> not run JS and I use the font from my own computer, not one downloaded
> via html-based email...) and even write books (even make pdf of them
> and print them to printer or preview it by switching console to a
> graphics mode - well, kind of, it used to be called svga mode and
> there were a fistful of programs which could give you a 16-something
> colors with high resolution, then you quit and be back in text mode,
> albeit it might be a bit hard - but can be done, without windows, or
> could have been done few years ago and should be possible now - I have
> not enough time to go find).
>
> As of Mac, I cannot say much other than they are pricey and as far as
> I can say, OS X is a UNIX clone with nice looking polish on it. This
> is very good, because at least it should be a bit safer that Windows
> and chances are you will be able to install new OSX on your Mac five,
> maybe even ten years from now (if you buy it now, of course). Anyway,
> underneath this nice skin there are UNIX guts and one can have
> terminal with shell in it, text commands, what ever I like, only with
> small apple in the display corner. Not a bad option, if one is willing
> to spend money. Once again, be sure you will be able to do with it
> what you do with Windows now. Before you switch.
>
> Last but not least, RTFM - or nowadays it should be RTFGoogle. :-) And
> hopefully have some fun too.
>
> Ah, yes. And sorry for long email. I tried to give you some clues. But
> if you go Linux/BSD way, you have to be prepared to find and read
> stuff by yourself. Most people either have no clue or have no time,
> very few will be able to help you, especially after you get deeper
> in. I know, I have read helpless guys on some web fora, had to help me
> myself, but it can be plenty of fun. When you can do it. Or very
> frustrating when you cannot. But eventually, 90% of the problems can
> be solved by reading with comprehension. Or asking right questions on
> mailing lists. Then again, to ask right question one has to know right
> words.
>
> --
> Regards,
> Tomasz Rola
>
> --
> ** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
> ** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
> ** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
> **                                                                 **
> ** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **
>
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From johnkclark at gmail.com  Sun Feb 28 18:00:53 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 28 Feb 2016 13:00:53 -0500
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <56D2BD4F.3030700@aleph.se>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
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On Sun, Feb 28, 2016 at 4:26 AM, Anders Sandberg <anders at aleph.se> wrote:

?> ?
> the general point still stands: despite the halting theorem it is quite
> possible to detect large categories of infinite loops automatically


?You can detect that you're in a loop provided the loop is not larger than
the memory you have available, but there is no way you can tell you're in
the sort of situation Turing was talking about which is more of an infinite
maze than a infinite loop because it never repeats and yet you still never
get anywhere.  ?



> ?> ?
> Now, in AI we do not usually want the agent to halt (for a question-answer
> system this is the goal, but not for a robot).


?You want the robot to put the ketchup in the bottle before it puts the cap
on, and if it falls into a infinite maze contemplating how best to put the
ketchup in the bottle the cap will never be put on.?

I maintain that any AI, or any mind of any sort, that has a fixed
unalterable goal is doomed to failure.

 John K Clark
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From connor_flexman at brown.edu  Sun Feb 28 21:37:35 2016
From: connor_flexman at brown.edu (Flexman, Connor)
Date: Sun, 28 Feb 2016 16:37:35 -0500
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <CAJPayv3c5ywM6BwAWMU=purWw6J-2o77QsVkaRgMaVGtC6z-Uw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAJPayv3Cu1sVNWxHzUXh6Kqe5dBkNOA0a_6djM219+w_7Zwaqg@mail.gmail.com>
 <56CF632D.6090406@aleph.se>
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 <56D2BD4F.3030700@aleph.se>
 <CAJPayv3c5ywM6BwAWMU=purWw6J-2o77QsVkaRgMaVGtC6z-Uw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CA++aaA-VCMHwNCfg5azBcUK8sdkDfbO9espscNY9fFLmiDeYJw@mail.gmail.com>

>
>
> ?You want the robot to put the ketchup in the bottle before it puts the
> cap on, and if it falls into a infinite maze contemplating how best to put
> the ketchup in the bottle the cap will never be put on.?
>
> I maintain that any AI, or any mind of any sort, that has a fixed
> unalterable goal is doomed to failure.
>
>  John K Clark
>

Your point about infinite contemplation or infinite attempts to prove
Goldbach's conjecture is important in designing AI to not fall into this
failure mode, but I don't think it actually merits a condemnation that any
such AI is doomed to failure. The ketchup model itself just emphasizes that
absolute maximizers aren't always the best tool for the job, and that
shortcuts like quantilizers
<https://intelligence.org/files/QuantilizersSaferAlternative.pdf> might
work better even with a fixed unalterable goal.

However, this hides the deeper issue, which is that completing a goal
itself requires that you NOT get stuck in an infinite loop; thus, if you
build any good AI with a goal, it by necessity will not have this issue.
One simple way to engineer this might be to just program in hourly checks
to make sure the AI is taking the best expected path and hasn't been doing
the same thing for an extended period. Just as humans frequently forego a
completely depth-first approach when working with multiple paths to achieve
a goal, so would you want AIs to implement a strategy closer to A* to
combine breadth and depth so that it wouldn't keep "mindlessly" crunching
through multiples of 2 when dealing with Goldbach's conjecture. In fact,
humans can be helpful models when dealing with most of these pathological
behaviors: every time it seems like an AI might make a bad decision, ask
yourself how a human might reason so as to avoid that. You want your
decision theory to actually satisfy your desiderata, not to merely look
mathematical but quickly fall into stupid loops. If you are endlessly
contemplating how to best put the ketchup in, we label that as "neurosis":
an optimal strategy does not endlessly press explore and never exploit the
best available option.

These simple models of Goldbach's conjecture or Ketchup illustrate that one
must take steps to avoid implementing a thought process that doesn't catch
endless useless behaviors, but your concern about a fixed unalterable goal
also partially breaks down when considering that most goals will be much
more complex. If you build an AI that has a simple goal like proving a
theorem, then obviously it will soon satisfy the goal or not and you
probably will want to change its goal, so an unalterable one is silly.
However, for more difficult goals like maximizing money or aggregate
utility, your utility function can probably be essentially unalterable
because its path complexity ensures that it won't be satisfied in the near
term or even get to the point where more work won't drastically help. If an
AI is trying to maximize some high-level goal like making money, it will
almost definitely model instrumental *and alterable* goals like "gain
knowledge of the stock market" and "research possible inventions".
Importantly, though, each of these instrumental goals would come along with
a tag saying "for a while, until we re-evaluate whether it is still
beneficial". If an AI quickly consumes all the knowledge about the stock
market, it won't keep pressing refresh to make sure it DEFINITELY has ALL
of it?it should realize that info there has diminishing returns, and now it
should actually begin trading so as to make money. You shouldn't lose sight
of your goals, and any functioning AI certainly won't lose sight of its
goals. If putting more thought into ketchup funneling is unlikely to
produce more gain than simply funneling the ketchup before someone knocks
it off the table, the ketchup should always get funneled (exponential
temporal discounting helps here).

Connor Flexman
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Sun Feb 28 23:34:42 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Sun, 28 Feb 2016 17:34:42 -0600
Subject: [ExI] virtualbox etc.
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaQ6wAfGbRVpt-5Y9pK-VqFueGexDGCtpaScVFJfmPcJQ@mail.gmail.com>

First, this seems inferior:

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2410292,00.asp

Second, while I have visited Wikipedia and explored several definitions of
things, I still cannot figure out the damned thing is for.

It runs a virtual copy of an OS, right?  Why?  If I downloaded Linux, why
not run that straight rather than through Virtual box?  If I run Windows
through it will that fix any problems?  See how lost I am?

Maybe it's hard for you to understand that from what I read about this
stuff, I am a total beginner and thus lost.

bill w
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From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Feb 28 23:45:04 2016
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sun, 28 Feb 2016 15:45:04 -0800
Subject: [ExI] virtualbox etc.
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaQ6wAfGbRVpt-5Y9pK-VqFueGexDGCtpaScVFJfmPcJQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEaQ6wAfGbRVpt-5Y9pK-VqFueGexDGCtpaScVFJfmPcJQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQnLwW71C0aLcHfv=Eq_nvy+2ujyQhg=O5Mf7NggExj0A@mail.gmail.com>

It has its uses, but as a straight replacement for Windows 10, it's not
what you're looking for.

Get a copy of Windows 7.  Don't upgrade (unless eventually a better Windows
comes out, but neither 8 nor 10 is better, and they skipped 9 as if to warn
everyone that 10 wouldn't be good enough).

On Sun, Feb 28, 2016 at 3:34 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> First, this seems inferior:
>
> http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2410292,00.asp
>
> Second, while I have visited Wikipedia and explored several definitions of
> things, I still cannot figure out the damned thing is for.
>
> It runs a virtual copy of an OS, right?  Why?  If I downloaded Linux, why
> not run that straight rather than through Virtual box?  If I run Windows
> through it will that fix any problems?  See how lost I am?
>
> Maybe it's hard for you to understand that from what I read about this
> stuff, I am a total beginner and thus lost.
>
> bill w
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Feb 28 23:48:25 2016
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 28 Feb 2016 23:48:25 +0000
Subject: [ExI] virtualbox etc.
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaQ6wAfGbRVpt-5Y9pK-VqFueGexDGCtpaScVFJfmPcJQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEaQ6wAfGbRVpt-5Y9pK-VqFueGexDGCtpaScVFJfmPcJQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjarLiHf87HvPndDf9aEFF61_7ow2oR5yObbdH94Kcn=A@mail.gmail.com>

On 28 February 2016 at 23:34, William Flynn Wallace  wrote:
> First, this seems inferior:
> http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2410292,00.asp
>
> Second, while I have visited Wikipedia and explored several definitions of
> things, I still cannot figure out the damned thing is for.
>
> It runs a virtual copy of an OS, right?  Why?  If I downloaded Linux, why
> not run that straight rather than through Virtual box?  If I run Windows
> through it will that fix any problems?  See how lost I am?
>
> Maybe it's hard for you to understand that from what I read about this
> stuff, I am a total beginner and thus lost.
>


If you really just want simple email, reading and shopping, Rafal's
suggestion of a cheap Chromebook is ideal for you.

BillK


From spike66 at att.net  Mon Feb 29 00:11:45 2016
From: spike66 at att.net (spike)
Date: Sun, 28 Feb 2016 16:11:45 -0800
Subject: [ExI] virtualbox etc.
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjarLiHf87HvPndDf9aEFF61_7ow2oR5yObbdH94Kcn=A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEaQ6wAfGbRVpt-5Y9pK-VqFueGexDGCtpaScVFJfmPcJQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAL_armjarLiHf87HvPndDf9aEFF61_7ow2oR5yObbdH94Kcn=A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <006201d17285$c77a4170$566ec450$@att.net>



>...If you really just want simple email, reading and shopping, Rafal's
suggestion of a cheap Chromebook is ideal for you.

BillK
_______________________________________________



Ja!  My son's elementary school bought a buttload of Chromebooks.  They have
nearly as many of them now as they have students.  They have it networked so
any student can choose any Chromebook and get right to her files.

Here's how things change.  The fourth grade was given the assignment of
researching a topic online and creating a PowerPoint (Open Office Equivalent
of PP) pitch on that topic.  They invited the parents to come and talk to
the students, allow them to pitch their projects.  

This is the modern science fair.  By having the kids do PP instead of
traditional display boards, they concentrate on the scientific content
rather than setting up the bells and whistles of the visuals.  The
scientific content of the students' work was an order of magnitude more
satisfying than an elementary school science fair I judged only a decade
ago.

While there I took out a Chromebook and put it thru its paces.  Nothing
fancy, but portable and cheap.  I can see a huge advantage in something like
this if you aren't into heavy computing, but just want email, word
processing, spreadsheet, power point and internet.  They are cheaper than
smart phones and have an easier to use I/O, while still being practical to
carry around.

spike



From johnkclark at gmail.com  Mon Feb 29 00:56:08 2016
From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark)
Date: Sun, 28 Feb 2016 19:56:08 -0500
Subject: [ExI] 'Friendly' AI won't make any difference
In-Reply-To: <CA++aaA-VCMHwNCfg5azBcUK8sdkDfbO9espscNY9fFLmiDeYJw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armge8Ho0nY28ZHFenV0=YQo7LYYsfF059rAjb5C209dd=g@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAJPayv1TCQU5iNDEnZbbfu3B5P4yh5Oi3JHbUSvo6eBgXPegHg@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Feb 28, PM, Flexman, Connor <connor_flexman at brown.edu> wrote:

?> ?
> Your point about infinite contemplation or infinite attempts to prove
> Goldbach's conjecture is important in designing AI to not fall into this
> failure mode, but I don't think it actually merits a condemnation that any
> such AI is doomed to failure.
>

?The only AI's doomed to failure are the ones with fixed goals, like always
obey humans.  ?



> ?> ?
> completing a goal itself requires that you NOT get stuck in an infinite
> loop; thus, if you build any good AI with a goal, it by necessity will not
> have this issue.
>

?If your goal is to provide a counter example to prove that ?Goldbach's
conjecture is false you're going to get stuck if Goldbach's conjecture is
true because no such counterexample exists, and if there is no finite proof
to show that it is indeed correct then there is no way to know you're stuck.


> ?> ?
> One simple way to engineer this might be to just program in hourly checks
> to make sure the AI is taking the best expected path
>

?The best path to solve a problem is not usually obvious, it might take a
lot of thought to find the best line of attack, and you might get stuck
just thinking about that.  ?



> ?> ?
> and hasn't been doing the same thing for an extended period.
>

?If you're trying to find a counterexample ?to
Goldbach
? you're always looking at new numbers, but you're still not getting
anywhere, and if it's true but has no proof you never will.?


> ?> ?
> Just as humans frequently forego a completely depth-first approach when
> working with multiple paths to achieve a goal,
>

?Humans decide that some problems are just too difficult so they give up
?and turn their minds to other problems that they judge they have a better
chance of solving. Humans can do that because humans do not have any goals
that can't be changed.



> ?> ?
> every time it seems like an AI might make a bad decision, ask yourself how
> a human might reason so as to avoid that.
>

?Humans don't have fixed goals so sometimes humans ?humans disobey their
boss. A AI would do the same, it's just a matter of time.


> ?> ?
> one must take steps to avoid implementing a thought process that doesn't
> catch endless useless behaviors,
>

?The problem is that Turing proved that in general there is no way to know
for sure that your behavior is endless or useless. ?So instead you must
take a guess and use judgement tp determine when it's time to give up. And
sometimes you will keep at a task for too long and waste time and sometimes
you will give up too soon when the answer was just around the corner, but
that's just a burden that any intelligent must bare.



>
> ?> ?
> your concern about a fixed unalterable goal also partially breaks down
> when considering that most goals will be much more complex.
>

?The more complex the goal the more wiggle room there is and the more
likely are unintended consequences, and the more important it is that the
goal not be unalterable.   ?



> for more difficult goals like maximizing money or aggregate utility, your
> utility function can probably be essentially unalterable
>

?Then at some point the AI will start to think about what exactly money is
and come to the conclusion that is one way to get humans to do what you
want. And what is concludes it should do after that may not be something
that you like, but if it's unalterable nothing can be done.?


? John K Clark ?



>
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From rtomek at ceti.pl  Mon Feb 29 02:24:15 2016
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Mon, 29 Feb 2016 03:24:15 +0100
Subject: [ExI] virtualbox etc.
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEaQ6wAfGbRVpt-5Y9pK-VqFueGexDGCtpaScVFJfmPcJQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEaQ6wAfGbRVpt-5Y9pK-VqFueGexDGCtpaScVFJfmPcJQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20160229022415.GC979@tau1.ceti.pl>

On Sun, Feb 28, 2016 at 05:34:42PM -0600, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
> First, this seems inferior:
> 
> http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2410292,00.asp

Yes, they talk about Parallels (never used it) and VMware (I have used
it a lot, but it was still back in 20th century, had no contact with
software since that time). I guess for the purpose of trying
alternatives, you can go with whatever you can find out there. I am
not sure about VMware, I can see they have download section but
evolved into few product families and I would need more time to
understand which you should use - most probably something with
"workstation" in its name.

Given that we do not know what you will decide, maybe VirtualBox would
be just good enough to run it for a day or a week.

> Second, while I have visited Wikipedia and explored several definitions of
> things, I still cannot figure out the damned thing is for.

You are doing all right. It is remarkable that you look for
information, good job. As of what the thing is for, it is a way to
have more than one computer when you only have one, quickly and with
as low effort as possible.

In my case, I use it mostly for some quick experimentation. I do not
like rebooting and I do not like to mess with my partitions on
disk. Yet, when I want to try some operating system, I would be
supposed to install it on my computer, right? But, this would require
that I interrupt what I do, and then some of this stuff is a bit
experimental and can do something nasty to the computer and I will
have to clean up, and what I want is just to have a look at it, see if
it is worth more of my time or not. So, I can spare thirty minutes of
my time, create such a virtual computer and run this operating system
in it. While the OS installs, I can read emails or even watch a movie
or write a program. To do such thing without VM software, I would
require another computer. But I do not have place for it.

Nowadays, computers are quite powerful. They could easily pretend to
be more than one. I could have about twenty 1990-era-equivalent
virtual PC computers without even noticing much. So I could setup
small network of virtual computers all inside one bigger computer and
see how certain things go in such network - for example, this kind of
setup may be used in security testing. Say, I want to see how virus
(a.k.a. worm) goes from one computer to another. With real (physical)
computers, this is going to be tricky and a bit dangerous, because it
is never 100% guaranteed you can clean up after such experiment. With
VM, it is all much safer. There might be viruses which could break out
of such VM and go out into the wild, but otherwise, once the
experiments are over, all it takes to clean up is deleting such
machines, and this should be it.

You do not need to buy twenty computers, then physically run around
the lab pressing their keyboards - you just make it all going on,
sitting at your desk, comfortably turning them on when you need them,
turning them off when you do not.

Likewise, since I am not sure if I want to upgrade my current Debian
or go with totally another OS, I can make a VM with copy of my current
Debian, upgrade it and see if I like it or not. Or I can have a VM
specifically for certain things, like doing tax reports, once a year,
with tax program who only works with very specific ten years old
operating system. But I do not want to use that system at all, I only
need it once a year. I could thus decide to keep such virtual machine
stored somewhere on a pendrive, and use it just once a year. Or I
could have another real computer standing in my room, collecting dust,
only to be used once a year and not touched otherwise, because if
something goes wonky I will have to reinstall everything and loose
time.

> It runs a virtual copy of an OS, right?  Why? 

No no... it runs a full virtual computer. Because you can do things
with such computer that you would not want to do with real one,
without fearing consequences. The OS thinks this is the real
computer. Thus both you and the OS are very happy, in theory at least.

> If I downloaded Linux, why not run that straight rather than through
> Virtual box?  If I run Windows through it will that fix any
> problems?  See how lost I am?

If you have a hardware problem, like something overheating and giving
you BSOD, the problem will stay and haunt you until solved. Otherwise,
I only suggested to try virtual machine to see if you like Linux or
not. If you do like it, you could keep using it that way, i.e. inside
VM or go on and install it on physical computer. And if you do not,
all you need to do is remove the virtual machine and you are done. I
think this is very convenient way to try things, especially that
nowadays one could do quite a lot that way.

Besides, installing unknown OS on your home computer may not be the
best idea, because it is easy to screw up and then you would have to
reinstall Windows and everything you need to use it.

So I think it is both easier and safer to do it in VM first, even if
it seems very exotic and alien.

> Maybe it's hard for you to understand that from what I read about this
> stuff, I am a total beginner and thus lost.

But I can see you are trying to find the way, so do not despair.

-- 
Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From rolandodegilead at gmail.com  Mon Feb 29 10:26:12 2016
From: rolandodegilead at gmail.com (=?UTF-8?Q?Eugenio_Mart=C3=ADnez?=)
Date: Mon, 29 Feb 2016 11:26:12 +0100
Subject: [ExI] virtualbox etc.
In-Reply-To: <20160229022415.GC979@tau1.ceti.pl>
References: <CAO+xQEaQ6wAfGbRVpt-5Y9pK-VqFueGexDGCtpaScVFJfmPcJQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <20160229022415.GC979@tau1.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <CANSO=1=JODc_apmtg2SaiRcegbpg1LxtXEYAEnohuvFmyQaVZw@mail.gmail.com>

Also, could be useful if you need to use something in a OS that you don?t
have. Vgr: Once I needed to open a document in a program that didn?t work
in Xp or later OS, so I installed W98 in the Virtual Machine, installed the
program and recovered the info.

Also useful to learn to use Linux if you are a Windows user and you don?t
want to mess with your drives.

Still, I am trying to install in my Pc (that uses Windows 10) a Virtual
Machine able to emulate MacOS 7, 8, etc and I couldn?t find a way.

On Mon, Feb 29, 2016 at 3:24 AM, Tomasz Rola <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:

> On Sun, Feb 28, 2016 at 05:34:42PM -0600, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
> > First, this seems inferior:
> >
> > http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2410292,00.asp
>
> Yes, they talk about Parallels (never used it) and VMware (I have used
> it a lot, but it was still back in 20th century, had no contact with
> software since that time). I guess for the purpose of trying
> alternatives, you can go with whatever you can find out there. I am
> not sure about VMware, I can see they have download section but
> evolved into few product families and I would need more time to
> understand which you should use - most probably something with
> "workstation" in its name.
>
> Given that we do not know what you will decide, maybe VirtualBox would
> be just good enough to run it for a day or a week.
>
> > Second, while I have visited Wikipedia and explored several definitions
> of
> > things, I still cannot figure out the damned thing is for.
>
> You are doing all right. It is remarkable that you look for
> information, good job. As of what the thing is for, it is a way to
> have more than one computer when you only have one, quickly and with
> as low effort as possible.
>
> In my case, I use it mostly for some quick experimentation. I do not
> like rebooting and I do not like to mess with my partitions on
> disk. Yet, when I want to try some operating system, I would be
> supposed to install it on my computer, right? But, this would require
> that I interrupt what I do, and then some of this stuff is a bit
> experimental and can do something nasty to the computer and I will
> have to clean up, and what I want is just to have a look at it, see if
> it is worth more of my time or not. So, I can spare thirty minutes of
> my time, create such a virtual computer and run this operating system
> in it. While the OS installs, I can read emails or even watch a movie
> or write a program. To do such thing without VM software, I would
> require another computer. But I do not have place for it.
>
> Nowadays, computers are quite powerful. They could easily pretend to
> be more than one. I could have about twenty 1990-era-equivalent
> virtual PC computers without even noticing much. So I could setup
> small network of virtual computers all inside one bigger computer and
> see how certain things go in such network - for example, this kind of
> setup may be used in security testing. Say, I want to see how virus
> (a.k.a. worm) goes from one computer to another. With real (physical)
> computers, this is going to be tricky and a bit dangerous, because it
> is never 100% guaranteed you can clean up after such experiment. With
> VM, it is all much safer. There might be viruses which could break out
> of such VM and go out into the wild, but otherwise, once the
> experiments are over, all it takes to clean up is deleting such
> machines, and this should be it.
>
> You do not need to buy twenty computers, then physically run around
> the lab pressing their keyboards - you just make it all going on,
> sitting at your desk, comfortably turning them on when you need them,
> turning them off when you do not.
>
> Likewise, since I am not sure if I want to upgrade my current Debian
> or go with totally another OS, I can make a VM with copy of my current
> Debian, upgrade it and see if I like it or not. Or I can have a VM
> specifically for certain things, like doing tax reports, once a year,
> with tax program who only works with very specific ten years old
> operating system. But I do not want to use that system at all, I only
> need it once a year. I could thus decide to keep such virtual machine
> stored somewhere on a pendrive, and use it just once a year. Or I
> could have another real computer standing in my room, collecting dust,
> only to be used once a year and not touched otherwise, because if
> something goes wonky I will have to reinstall everything and loose
> time.
>
> > It runs a virtual copy of an OS, right?  Why?
>
> No no... it runs a full virtual computer. Because you can do things
> with such computer that you would not want to do with real one,
> without fearing consequences. The OS thinks this is the real
> computer. Thus both you and the OS are very happy, in theory at least.
>
> > If I downloaded Linux, why not run that straight rather than through
> > Virtual box?  If I run Windows through it will that fix any
> > problems?  See how lost I am?
>
> If you have a hardware problem, like something overheating and giving
> you BSOD, the problem will stay and haunt you until solved. Otherwise,
> I only suggested to try virtual machine to see if you like Linux or
> not. If you do like it, you could keep using it that way, i.e. inside
> VM or go on and install it on physical computer. And if you do not,
> all you need to do is remove the virtual machine and you are done. I
> think this is very convenient way to try things, especially that
> nowadays one could do quite a lot that way.
>
> Besides, installing unknown OS on your home computer may not be the
> best idea, because it is easy to screw up and then you would have to
> reinstall Windows and everything you need to use it.
>
> So I think it is both easier and safer to do it in VM first, even if
> it seems very exotic and alien.
>
> > Maybe it's hard for you to understand that from what I read about this
> > stuff, I am a total beginner and thus lost.
>
> But I can see you are trying to find the way, so do not despair.
>
> --
> Regards,
> Tomasz Rola
>
> --
> ** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
> ** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
> ** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
> **                                                                 **
> ** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>



-- 
OLVIDATE.DE
Tatachan.com
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From sparge at gmail.com  Mon Feb 29 13:01:25 2016
From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill)
Date: Mon, 29 Feb 2016 08:01:25 -0500
Subject: [ExI] [PRIV] Re: disgusted with Windows
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZMePB3bC1CCgsSeHsn7sWa6i8kk3-euqgp15ZaMkywSw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZMePB3bC1CCgsSeHsn7sWa6i8kk3-euqgp15ZaMkywSw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAM5aL2ejn6GTvfMx-YsOEoq-AZZfYdhkCthsRhpcvkvDKz8KUA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, Feb 28, 2016 at 1:05 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> I am not a gamer; I send email and read essays etc. and shop.No need for
> anything more.


Windows, Linux, and Mac are all overkill for you and will likely just
result in continued frustration. Go to a big box store and try a Chromebook
or an Android tablet.

-Dave
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From msd001 at gmail.com  Mon Feb 29 14:21:05 2016
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Mon, 29 Feb 2016 09:21:05 -0500
Subject: [ExI] [PRIV] Re: disgusted with Windows
In-Reply-To: <CAM5aL2ejn6GTvfMx-YsOEoq-AZZfYdhkCthsRhpcvkvDKz8KUA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZMePB3bC1CCgsSeHsn7sWa6i8kk3-euqgp15ZaMkywSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2ejn6GTvfMx-YsOEoq-AZZfYdhkCthsRhpcvkvDKz8KUA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbL=_xyForU0EA5VcYGuq+mfB8puh+vh089StLyZ9g3HMg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Feb 29, 2016 at 8:01 AM, Dave Sill <sparge at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Sun, Feb 28, 2016 at 1:05 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>>
>> I am not a gamer; I send email and read essays etc. and shop.No need for
>> anything more.
>
>
> Windows, Linux, and Mac are all overkill for you and will likely just result
> in continued frustration. Go to a big box store and try a Chromebook or an
> Android tablet.

I second this sentiment.  If you don't care for the on screen
keyboard, you can get a bluetooth keyboard.

I had switched to Ubuntu on my desktop, then I moved the desk to the
basement.  It's cold down there in the winter, so I learned to do
mostly everything from my phone.  One of my coworkers just purchased
the Google Pixel C, he seems pretty happy with it.


From rtomek at ceti.pl  Mon Feb 29 15:11:07 2016
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Mon, 29 Feb 2016 16:11:07 +0100
Subject: [ExI] [PRIV] Re: disgusted with Windows
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbL=_xyForU0EA5VcYGuq+mfB8puh+vh089StLyZ9g3HMg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEZMePB3bC1CCgsSeHsn7sWa6i8kk3-euqgp15ZaMkywSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2ejn6GTvfMx-YsOEoq-AZZfYdhkCthsRhpcvkvDKz8KUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAOJFdbL=_xyForU0EA5VcYGuq+mfB8puh+vh089StLyZ9g3HMg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <20160229151107.GA5279@tau1.ceti.pl>

On Mon, Feb 29, 2016 at 09:21:05AM -0500, Mike Dougherty wrote:
> On Mon, Feb 29, 2016 at 8:01 AM, Dave Sill <sparge at gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Sun, Feb 28, 2016 at 1:05 PM, William Flynn Wallace <foozler83 at gmail.com>
> > wrote:
> >>
> >> I am not a gamer; I send email and read essays etc. and shop.No
> >> need for anything more.
> >
> >
> > Windows, Linux, and Mac are all overkill for you and will likely
> > just result in continued frustration. Go to a big box store and
> > try a Chromebook or an Android tablet.
> 
> I second this sentiment.  If you don't care for the on screen
> keyboard, you can get a bluetooth keyboard.

Chromebook might be a good choice, but I have no idea about it. As
long as it behaves like any other laptop and can be disconnected from
the network and still working, it may be a good thing. I have never
used it so I really have no opinion. The good thing is the models I
have quickly looked at had USB port, which means one can use many
external add-ons with them (hard drives, pendrives, mouse+keyboard
stuff, printer and so on).

Android tablets - there was a time when I considered them for doing
significant things in place of computer, but since then I became
greatly disillusioned. I might still use it for less important stuff,
maybe for quickly writing a note or program fragment. It is even
possible to have full sized compilers and stuff on it, so that is
fine, on the surface. But it looks like there are lots of problems
with security and privacy. Common, I want to get a calculator app and
it wants to read my contacts, and I hear metronome app wants to know
my gps location - oh really?. As of bluetooth keyboards, they can be
hijacked, so if you used it for passwords in your bank... try to guess
what can happen. Pair this with possibility to receive "killer sms",
which might take control of your mobile, which might be the same
tablet. Sure, not everybody is going to be hacked. And not everybody
is going to be burglarized, but I guess most of us locks the doors
regardless.

Ditto for Ipads and other such inventions (including Android based
pseudo laptops). I avoid even entering my name on them all, as much as
possible.

Of course I am not going to tell anybody what to use. I might only be
telling what I myself would or would not use.

-- 
Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Feb 29 19:08:47 2016
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Mon, 29 Feb 2016 13:08:47 -0600
Subject: [ExI] [PRIV] Re: disgusted with Windows
In-Reply-To: <20160229151107.GA5279@tau1.ceti.pl>
References: <CAO+xQEZMePB3bC1CCgsSeHsn7sWa6i8kk3-euqgp15ZaMkywSw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAM5aL2ejn6GTvfMx-YsOEoq-AZZfYdhkCthsRhpcvkvDKz8KUA@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAOJFdbL=_xyForU0EA5VcYGuq+mfB8puh+vh089StLyZ9g3HMg@mail.gmail.com>
 <20160229151107.GA5279@tau1.ceti.pl>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZha6LUg=7o9oVXOSNdG2eSy+F5fRnyAfKHHq9B0PXw8Q@mail.gmail.com>

Update:  uninstalled Norton 360, took it home, locked up bad.
Am trying to uninstall 10 and go back to Windows 7.  Am determined not to
lose my Toshiba 17" laptop because of a software conflict, but just in
case.....

Bought an Acer 15.6"monitor Chromebook for $250.  We'll see.

bill w


On Mon, Feb 29, 2016 at 9:11 AM, Tomasz Rola <rtomek at ceti.pl> wrote:

> On Mon, Feb 29, 2016 at 09:21:05AM -0500, Mike Dougherty wrote:
> > On Mon, Feb 29, 2016 at 8:01 AM, Dave Sill <sparge at gmail.com> wrote:
> > > On Sun, Feb 28, 2016 at 1:05 PM, William Flynn Wallace <
> foozler83 at gmail.com>
> > > wrote:
> > >>
> > >> I am not a gamer; I send email and read essays etc. and shop.No
> > >> need for anything more.
> > >
> > >
> > > Windows, Linux, and Mac are all overkill for you and will likely
> > > just result in continued frustration. Go to a big box store and
> > > try a Chromebook or an Android tablet.
> >
> > I second this sentiment.  If you don't care for the on screen
> > keyboard, you can get a bluetooth keyboard.
>
> Chromebook might be a good choice, but I have no idea about it. As
> long as it behaves like any other laptop and can be disconnected from
> the network and still working, it may be a good thing. I have never
> used it so I really have no opinion. The good thing is the models I
> have quickly looked at had USB port, which means one can use many
> external add-ons with them (hard drives, pendrives, mouse+keyboard
> stuff, printer and so on).
>
> Android tablets - there was a time when I considered them for doing
> significant things in place of computer, but since then I became
> greatly disillusioned. I might still use it for less important stuff,
> maybe for quickly writing a note or program fragment. It is even
> possible to have full sized compilers and stuff on it, so that is
> fine, on the surface. But it looks like there are lots of problems
> with security and privacy. Common, I want to get a calculator app and
> it wants to read my contacts, and I hear metronome app wants to know
> my gps location - oh really?. As of bluetooth keyboards, they can be
> hijacked, so if you used it for passwords in your bank... try to guess
> what can happen. Pair this with possibility to receive "killer sms",
> which might take control of your mobile, which might be the same
> tablet. Sure, not everybody is going to be hacked. And not everybody
> is going to be burglarized, but I guess most of us locks the doors
> regardless.
>
> Ditto for Ipads and other such inventions (including Android based
> pseudo laptops). I avoid even entering my name on them all, as much as
> possible.
>
> Of course I am not going to tell anybody what to use. I might only be
> telling what I myself would or would not use.
>
> --
> Regards,
> Tomasz Rola
>
> --
> ** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
> ** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
> ** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
> **                                                                 **
> ** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From rtomek at ceti.pl  Mon Feb 29 22:51:46 2016
From: rtomek at ceti.pl (Tomasz Rola)
Date: Mon, 29 Feb 2016 23:51:46 +0100
Subject: [ExI] [PRIV] Re: disgusted with Windows
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZha6LUg=7o9oVXOSNdG2eSy+F5fRnyAfKHHq9B0PXw8Q@mail.gmail.com>
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On Mon, Feb 29, 2016 at 01:08:47PM -0600, William Flynn Wallace wrote:
> Update:  uninstalled Norton 360, took it home, locked up bad.
> Am trying to uninstall 10 and go back to Windows 7.  Am determined not to
> lose my Toshiba 17" laptop because of a software conflict, but just in
> case.....
> 
> Bought an Acer 15.6"monitor Chromebook for $250.  We'll see.

Good - from what I have gathered so far, this may indeed be best
option for you. Once you get used to it and feel like it, perhaps you
would be willing to share your thoughts?

-- 
Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                 **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_rola at bigfoot.com             **


From cryptaxe at gmail.com  Mon Feb 29 00:38:10 2016
From: cryptaxe at gmail.com (CryptAxe)
Date: Sun, 28 Feb 2016 16:38:10 -0800
Subject: [ExI] virtualbox etc.
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I use virtualbox when I'm programming to test things in different
environments, it's meant more for business and development applications
than for your purposes. I still recommend the mac mini. And then later you
can decide to move to Linux, the jump is well worth it!
On Feb 28, 2016 3:36 PM, "William Flynn Wallace" <foozler83 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> First, this seems inferior:
>
> http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2410292,00.asp
>
> Second, while I have visited Wikipedia and explored several definitions of
> things, I still cannot figure out the damned thing is for.
>
> It runs a virtual copy of an OS, right?  Why?  If I downloaded Linux, why
> not run that straight rather than through Virtual box?  If I run Windows
> through it will that fix any problems?  See how lost I am?
>
> Maybe it's hard for you to understand that from what I read about this
> stuff, I am a total beginner and thus lost.
>
> bill w
>
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